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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-18-16 | Falcons +4.5 v. Raiders | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 163 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Falcons. Setting the scene: Atlanta will be desperate today to avoid the 0-2 hole, while Oakland will be trying not to have a letdown after an Opening season victory. The Falcons: Atlanta will be eager to return to form after dropping a divisional contest to Tampa Bay on Sunday. The Falcons have a tough opening schedule and will need to take advantage of this matchup, as they have New Orleans, Carolina, Denver and Seattle over the first six weeks: “I don’t look at it as us being in a hole,” wide receiver Julio Jones explained. “We’re just seeing where we’re at and how we’ve got to get better. Of course, we lost a divisional game. Those guys know you better than anybody because you play them twice a year, every year. But I still don’t consider this a hole. We just have to play better ball and eliminate little penalties here and there.” The Raiders: Oakland went for two late in the fourth quarter and converted to beat the Saints 35-34 last weekend. David Carr was 24 of 38 for 319 yards and one TD. But that was against a Saints’ unit which was ranked among the worst last year. We think the Ray-dahs are going to have a much more difficult time moving the ball this week. The bottom line: Oakland looked great, but we’re not ready to crown Carr quite yet. Game-to-game consistency has been Carr’s major draw-back to this point and we’re expecting some regression this week. Grab as many points as you can with ATLANTA. AAA Sports |
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09-18-16 | Titans +5.5 v. Lions | 16-15 | Win | 100 | 159 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Tennessee Titans. Setting the scene: The Titans look to bounce back off a frustrating 25-16 opening home loss to the Vikings, while the Lions looked poised for a classic letdown after their thrilling 39-35 win over the Colts on the road. Tennessee: The Titans’ offense struggled a bit last week, but that’s more to do with the Vikes defense. Minnesota has an elite unit and it stepped up big in the opener. With that awkward game out of the way, we think Marcus Mariota will have plenty of opportunity for a bigger output today against the Lions vanilla unit. Note though that Mariota did throw for 271 yards on 25 of 41 passing with two TD’s. The run game struggled, finishing with just 64 yards, but DeMarco Murray should also be able to exploit this porous Detroit front. Detroit: QB Matt Stafford finished 31 of 39 for 340 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. We think he’ll have a much harder time this week though, as the Colts have major issues in their secondary. So while the offense looked great against a pathetic defense, as mentioned above, the Lions’ real issues lie on the defensive side of the ball. The bottom line: We’re not overreacting to eiher team’s Week 1 results. We think this one is going to be a battle until the end as the visitors desperately try to avoid the 0-2 hole and take this one down to the wire. Play on the TITANS. AAA Sports |
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09-17-16 | South Florida v. Syracuse +12.5 | Top | 45-20 | Loss | -105 | 142 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Syracuse. Setting the scene: While we’ll stop short of calling for an outright upset, we do definitely feel this one sets up fantastic for the undervalued home side, so in the end we’ll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. USF: The Bulls are firing on all cylinders, they’re coming off back to back blowout SU/ATS victories, including in last week’s 48-17 win over NIU last weekend. But with a game at home against Florida State next Saturday, we think the visitors are going to have a predictable letdown this afternoon, unable to help themselves in “looking ahead” to that monstrous matchup. Syracuse: The Orange are 1-1 to start their season opening three-game home stand. The team will then embark on three straight on the road, so a victory today would clearly go a long way in perhaps shaping the rest of the year. The bottom line: We base our selections off many different criteria. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we’ll completely dissect a contest from top to bottom. We think this is a great “situational” play though. Play on SYRACUSE. AAA Sports |
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09-17-16 | Georgia State +30 v. Wisconsin | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 139 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia State. Setting the scene: When the Sunday NFL games are going off, we’re already looking ahead to the following week’s College Football contests. We often jump on lines early and sometimes that works for us and other times that works against us. The latter is the case here, as we got Georgia State at +30 and that line has since gone up considerably, even +35.5 in some places. Regardless, we still love this selection as we feel that Wisconsin gets caught in a classic “trap” scenario this afternoon. Georgia State: Has nothing to lose here after a double-digit home loss to Ball State and a 48-14 setback on the road to Air Force. Note that Georgia State welcomes back 16 starters from last year. The Panthers though are not a good team and we won’t try to convince you that they are. However, as stated off the top we think this is a great spot for the visitor to sneak in through the back door down the stretch against a complacent home side that has bigger things on its mind. Wisconsin: A shocking 16-14 win over LSU in Week 1 as a 12.5 point underdog was followed up with a 54-10 beatdown victory over Akron as a 21.5 point favorite last Saturday. Now the Badgers have to play lowly Georgia State, before back-to-back road games at Michigan State and Michigan. The bottom line: Note that Georgia State is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog of 21.5 points or more, while Wisconsin is 0-2 ATS the last two seasons as a favorite of 31 points or more. All signs point to a “trap,” so grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports |
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09-16-16 | Arizona State v. Texas-San Antonio +18 | 32-28 | Win | 100 | 125 h 20 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on UTSA. Setting the scene: ASU comes off a wild 68-55 shootout victory over Texas Tech on Saturday. UTSA fell 23-14 at Colorado State on Saturday. Just like our play on Rice though, this one sets up beautifully as a “spot” wager, as we also feel Arizona State will get caught looking ahead to its game at home vs. conference rival California next weekend. The Sun Devils: RB Kalen Ballage posted eight touchdowns last Saturday, seven rushing and one receiving. It tied the FBS all time record. QB Manny Wilkins finished with 351 yards and two touchdowns. ASU did not look good defensively though, allowing Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes to put up 540 passying yards and five major scores. ASU was horrible against the pass last year, allowing an average of 337.8 YPG through the air, which ranked it 128th in the nation. The Roadrunners: UTSA’s normally stout run game ran into a brickwall last week, going for minus-1 yard on 34 carries. Last year the team averaged 169 yards per game on teh ground. QB Dalton Sturm had 176 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively the Roadrunners were pretty good though, holding Colorado State to 328 overall yards, including just 108 through the air. The bottom line: Note that ASU is 1-6 ATS in its last seven after posting more than 450 total yards, while UTSA is 2-1 ATS in its last three non-conference contests. With the game against the conference foe next weekend at home, and coming off the epic shootout victory over Texas A&M, the stage is set for a letdown from Arizona State this evening. Play on UTSA. AAA Sports |
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09-16-16 | Arkansas State +8 v. Utah State | 20-34 | Loss | -105 | 125 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Arkansas State. Setting the scene: Arkansas State is 0-2, while Utah State is 1-1. Arkansas State comes off an expected blowout loss to Auburn on Saturday, falling 51-14 on the road, while Utah State was crushed 45-7 by USC away from friendly confines. The Red Wolves: It’s hard to properly judge where Arkansas State is right now. The Red Wolves were horrible on both sides of the ball against Auburn. But the Aggies aren’t the Tigers. We’re going to caution in reading too much into last week’s perfomance. Former Pitt QB Chad Voytik is 26 of 45 for 339 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions. The Aggies: Utah State was blown out just as bad, getting outgained by the Trojans 422-253. The Aggies though are in the middle of the pack on both sides of the ball, led by Kent Myers, who is 36 of 54 for 304 yards, a touchdown and an interception. The bottom line: Note that Arkansas State is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 when playing with six or less days rest and 3-0 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Utah State is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games. We think Voytik is a capable pivot and will keep his team in this one, grab as many points as you can. Play on ARKANSAS STATE. AAA Sports |
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09-16-16 | Baylor v. Rice +27.5 | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Rice. Setting the scene: Baylor is 2-0 and Rice is 0-2. We got down early and have an unfavorable line unfortunately (27.5), but regardless, we still love this selection. And that’s because we think the high-powered Bears are going to get caught looking ahead to their game at home next weekend against Oklahoma State. Baylor: The Bears were slowed down by SMU’s defense in the first half last week, but came out storming in the second by posting 40 points. Seth Russell was not at his best, going for 262 yards and two touchdowns. KD Cannon had ten catches for 93 yards and a touchdown. Rice: The Owls struggled in last week’s loss to Army, QB Tyler Stehling was just 16 of 30 for 199 yards and a touchdown. Rice also struggled defensively, allowing Army’s high-powered option to total 348 yards on the ground. The bottom line: It’s David vs. Goliath, but there’s not going to be any upsets today. But as stated off the top, we simply feel this sets up as a classic “spot” bet situation, as all signs do indeed point to RICE sneaking in through the back door down the stretch with the ample spread it’s been afforded as Baylor starts gearing up for their big matchup with the Cowboys. AAA Sports |
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09-12-16 | Rams v. 49ers +2.5 | 0-28 | Win | 102 | 203 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the San Francisco 49ers. Setting the scene: Both teams come into the 2016/17 campaign with more questions than answers. Especially at the most important position. We think San Fran new head coach Chip Kelly will have something up his sleeve today though and while we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Rams: Have a decent defense, but that’s about it. They also have Todd Gurley as potentially an elite RB. The offense however is in a bit of a dissaray as far as the QB position is concerned, Jeff Fisher has decided to go with Case Keenum as the Week 1 starter. Keenum has not played more than eight games in a season in his three years in the league. Last year the Rams only averaged 17.9 PPG. The 49ers: San Francisco has a major advantage at the QB position. The 49ers only averaged 14.9 PPG, but Blaine Gabbert was decent, in his eight games last year he threw for over 2,000 yards with ten touchdowns. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on Torrey Smith, who had 663 yards and four major scores last year. The bottom line: Gabbert is the correct call here, he’s getting zero respect from the oddsmakers and it’s time to make them pay. Play on the 49’ERS. AAA Sports |
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09-12-16 | Steelers v. Redskins +3 | 38-16 | Loss | -100 | 200 h 12 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washington Redskins. Setting the scene: The Steelers have a scary offense with Ben Roethlisberger, WR Antonio Brown and RB Le’Veon Bell. But Bell is suspended for the first three games. The Redskins finish 9-7 and won the NFC East last year and look to take an even bigger step forward this season with QB Kirk Cousins and a bunch of other offensive weapons. These team’s defenses are pretty equal, but we think home field advantage can’t be overlooked and while we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Steelers: D’Angelo Williams is a capable replacement for Bell in the short-term, but he’s not getting any younger at 33 years old. Also note that the offensive unit is without the services of WR Martavis Bryant, who is suspended for the season. The Redskins: As mentioned off the top, Cousins has just as many, if not more, weapons to utilize than “Big Ben” does. TE Jordan Reed, RB DeSean Jackson and WR’s Pierre Garcon and Jamison Crowder will surely be giving opposing defenses difficulty all year. The addition of defensive specialist Josh Norman helps an already impressive unit. The bottom line: It’s interesting to note that Pittsburgh is just 1-4 ATS in its last five “Week 1” contests, while Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five when playing the role of underdog. Cousins is on a one-year deal, so will be looking to put together his best campaign of his career in order to finally “cash out” at the end of the year. Play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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09-11-16 | Dolphins +10.5 v. Seahawks | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 174 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* NON-CONFERENCE ASSASSIN on the Miami Dolphins. Setting the scene: Clearly Seattle is the better team, but we think the hungry Dolphins can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Miami: The Dolphins are now directed by Adam Gase, who is an offensive minded coach who will be trying to get a lot more out of QB Ryan Tannehill. Gase’s no huddle offense has worked well with others in the past, including Peyton Manning. Defensively the team is stacked with Ndamukong Suh, Cameron Wake and Mario Williams. The Seahawks: Despite losing Marshawn Lynch in the offseason to retirement, Seattle’s offense is predicted to be one of the best again with QB Russell Wilson leading the way. The team should also be one of the best on the defensive side of the ball, littered with experienced veterans who are all just entering their prime. The bottom ilne: Seattle’s vaunted D is going to be challenged right out of the gate as Tannehill will be moving things along quickly. Seattle’s main weakness last year was its offensive line, which constantly let Wilson down. It was subsequently re-vamped in the offseason, but it too is going to be tested by Miami’s defensive stars. So while we do think the home side is going to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night, we feel that it’s not going to be by double digits. The DOLPHINS give the Hawks a scare on Opening Day and sneak in through the back door down the stretch. AAA Sports |
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09-11-16 | Bucs v. Falcons -3 | 31-24 | Loss | -103 | 170 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Falcons. Setting the scene: Atlanta was 3-1 in the preseason, while the Bucs finished 2-2. Atlanta will be out for some double revenge today as it would go on to drop both games against Tampa Bay last year. The Buccaneers: QB Jameis Winston for the most part lived up to the hype and the 2nd year pro will be expected to take his game to another level in 2016/17. Last season he’d throw for over 4,000 yards and also post 22 TD’s. He did throw 15 INT’s and fumbled three times though. He’ll be handing off to Doug Martin, who had over 1,400 yards rushing and six TD’s. Defensively though the team is a bit of a question mark, clearly it was the main reason why it would go just 6-10 last year, allowing a total of 31 TD’s. The Falcons: The team will look to duplicate last season’s start in which it opened 5-0, before then only managing three more victories after that. QB Matt Ryan threw for over 4,500 yards and 21 TD’s. Devonta Freeman led the charge on the ground with over 1,060 yards. Julio Jones is going to be tough to stop again this season, he had 1,871 yard with eight TD’s. Like Tampa Bay, it was Atlanta’s defense which was the contributing factor to its eventual slide last year. The bottom line: Despite the high-ceiling for Winston and Tampa, this is still a young team trying to find its way. Atlanta is filled with skilled veterans in key positions and we think it’s this experience and depth which will ultimately prove to be the difference today. Lay the points on the FALCONS. AAA Sports |
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09-11-16 | Chargers +7 v. Chiefs | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 170 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the San Diego Chargers. Setting the scene: The Chargers were only 4-12 last year, but many still feel that the team has the best QB in the division with veteran Philip Rivers under center. The Chiefs have big plans this season with their eyes on the AFC West title, but we think Andy Reid’s team is due for some regression. San Diego: With Rivers directing the show, the Chargers will have a “punchers chance” in any game. He’ll need Melvin Gordon to step up this season though. San Diego struggled defensively last year but made many off-season moves to address the issue. Kansas City: The Chiefs had an 11-5 season and won their first playoff game in 22 years. Kansas City though comes in off a rough offseason which saw them lose Justin Houston for at least six months, while also losing a 6th and 7th round pick due to a tampering scandal. QB Alex Smith is back to direct the show, while the offense will be in a “wait and see” pattern when it comes to RB Jamaal Charles, who tore his ACL last season. The Chiefs are strong defensively, last year they’d give up an average of just 17 points. The bottom line: With a tough game at Houston next week, we think the Cheifs come in a bit flat footed, leaving the back door open just enough for Rivers and the hungry CHARGERS to sneak through. AAA Sports |
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09-11-16 | Packers v. Jaguars +4.5 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 170 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Setting the scene: The Packers were 3-1 in the preseason and anything less than a Super Bowl this year will be considered a disappointment. The Jags were 1-3 in the preseason and if the team made the playoffs, it would surely be considered a miracle. We think this hungry home side though can catch the heavyweight Packers a little flat in the opener as they’re not going to be able to help themselves in looking towards an early divisional showdown on the road next week. Green Bay: As Aaron Rodgers goes, so go the Packers. Last year he had almost 4,000 yards passing and posted 31 TD’s. Eddie Lacy has trimmed down and looks primed for another big season. WR Jordy Nelson returns from injury, a perfect compliment to Randall Cobb. Defense was the main issue for Green Bay last year and it’s the biggest question mark once again as we head into the regular season. Jacksonville: Blake Bortles is back under center and he’ll also be pivotal in his team’s success this year. Last season he wouldn’t disappoint by going for 4,428 yards and 35 TD’s. He’ll be handing off to TY Yeldon, who had 740 yards and two major scores last year. Like the Packers, the defensive side of the ball draws the most concern. The bottom line: Clearly Green Bay is the better team, but this selection is based off a great “situation,” as we think the Packers get caught looking ahead to their game against division rival Minnesota next Sunday. Opening Day upset? Perhaps, but in the end we’ll recommend grabbing the points, play on the JAGUARS. AAA Sports |
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09-10-16 | California +8 v. San Diego State | Top | 40-45 | Win | 100 | 128 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on Cal. Setting the scene: Cal trounced Hawaii in Australia in the season opener and has now returned home for a much stiffer test this evening. SDSU has won six straight at home and is 15-2 its last 17 at Qualcomm Stadium. We think that California has the athletes to keep this one close and while we would not be shocked by an outright upset, everything points to the points as the savvy move in this matchup. Cal: The Bears are going to have their hands full with Aztecs RB Donnel Pumphrey, who has 4,370 career rushing yards and who has 2,057 yards and 21 TD’s in his last 15 at home. But if ever there was an offense that could match pace with the high-powered Aztecs, it’s California, who has averaged 630.2 yards of total offense and 46.0 points per game in its last five dating to last season. QB Davis Webb had 441 yards and four TD’s on 38 of 54 passing last week. SDSU: This team is simply loaded on both sides of the ball. Beyond Pumphrey, the Aztecs also have standout sophomore QB Christian Chapman, who had 283 yards and two TD’s against the Wildcats last week. The defense has held 12 straight opponents to 400 yards or less, but clearly the home side faces a very stiff test today. The bottom line: These teams are in fact very similar, as SDSU ranked second among FBS teams both in turnovers gained (34) and INT’s (23) last season. But not to be outdone, note that Cal finished tied for 11th in the FBS in fumbles recovered (12) and tied for 13th in total turnovers gained (23). Ultimately we think that Webb gives his team a punchers chance at an upset today. Play on the GOLDEN BEARS. AAA Sports |
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09-10-16 | Nevada v. Notre Dame -26 | Top | 10-39 | Win | 100 | 121 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Setting the scene: It’s the home opener for the Fighting Irish, who return home in a foul mood after falling 50-47 to Texas in overtime last weekend. The Wolfpack come in contented after taking care of Cal Poly in an unimpressive 30-27 effort in Week 1. In our opinion, all signs point to a lop-sided blowout once the final horn sounds. Wolf Pack: Nevada won, but it didn’t look good last week against lowly Cal Poly. QB Tyler Stewart was a bright spot though, finishing 17 of 23 for 189 yards and two touchdowns. RB James Butler ran for 123 yards off 21 carries. Nevada is solid offensively, but has more questions than answers on the defensive side of the ball. Fighting Irish: QB DeShone Kizer was hot early on and head coach Brian Kelly would stick with him. Kizer would finish 15 of 24 for 215 yards and five touchdowns, also adding 77 on the ground. Kizer will get the start here and he has a ton of different weapons to utilize, including Torii Hunter Jr, who had four catches for 37 yards and one touchdown last week. Notre Dame lost a bunch of starters from last years smothering defensive unit and that was clearly evident in last week’s setback. However, we’re expecting Kelly to have the unit fired up and razor focused this afternoon. The bottom line: We base our picks off many different factors, but for this one we’re keeping it simple. We’re not going to read too much into last week’s setback and believe the Fighting Irish defense is much better than what we witnessed. The Longhorns caught some early momentum and Notre Dame was never able to catch its breath. With the offense leading the charge again this week, we’re looking for the home side defense to be the difference maker today. Lay the points on NOTRE DAME. AAA Sports |
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09-10-16 | Akron +25.5 v. Wisconsin | 10-54 | Loss | -115 | 120 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Akron. Setting the scene: We think this is a few too many points to be giving up to the Zips, as all signs point to Wisconsin coming into this one with a bit of a mental “hang over” after its massive win over LSU in Green Bay last weekend. We’re obviously not going to call for an outright upset today, but we do think that Akron can catch the Badgers a little flat-footed. Wisconsin: The Badgers are due a classic “letdown” today after their big win over LSU, an effort which saw them get a big bump in the rankings after starting the year outside the Top 25 of the major polls. Note though that the Wisconsin offense didn’t even look that good last week, going just 3 for 15 on third down and managing just 399 yards in total. Akron: The Zips can score, QB Thomas Woodson threw six TD passes last week. True it was against VMI, but the talent is still there for Woodson. Woodson and the Akron offensive line clearly have a big step up in competition today, but as we stated off the top, they’ll all catch a bit of a break today as we’re expecting the home side to have a mental letdown this afternoon. The Akron defense has the potential to be one of the best in the MAC. The bottom line: Wisconsin QB Bart Houston threw two INT’s last week. Opportunity is knocking for Akron today. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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09-10-16 | Tulsa +29 v. Ohio State | 3-48 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Tulsa. Setting the scene: Ohio State rolled to a huge victory last week. So too did Tulsa. Ultimately we think that the Buckeyes will come out a bit flat today, leaving the back door open just enough for the Golden Hurricane to sneak in through down the stretch. Tulsa: The Golden Hurricane have a big opportunity today as they catch a Buckeyes team which won’t be able to help itself looking ahead to a big game against Oklahoma next week. The Tulsa passing game is expected to be among the best in the AAC, keep your eyes on Keevan Lucas, who had 112 yards on six catches last week. But Tulsa can also get the job done on the ground, as the Golden Hurricane had 305 yards rushing last week, led by RB D’Angelo Brewer with 164 yards and three major scores. Ohio State: QB JT Barrett had a big day last week as well, he’d throw for six scores in his team’s blowout win over Bowling Green as nine different players caught passes. But where does the motivation come today? The Buckeyes were jacked up for the season opener, but with a huge nationally televised game next week, we’re definitely expecting a bit of a letdown from the home side today. The bottom line: A great situational play. TULSA has enough of an offense to keep this one close down the stretch, grab as many points as you can. AAA Sports |
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09-09-16 | Louisville v. Syracuse +14.5 | Top | 62-28 | Loss | -106 | 105 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* SCORPION on Syracuse. Setting the scene: Both teams come off victories, as Louisville rolled to an impressive 70-14 victory over light-weight Charlotte last week, while Syracuse handled Colgate 33-7. When these team’s played last year, Louisville pulled away for the 41-17 victory. The Orange are going to be competitive in this spot in our opinion though and they’re going to catch a Cardinals team “looking ahead” to its important matchup against high-powered Florida State next week. Louisville: Here’s a great spot to take advantage of. We find it almost impossible not to see the Cardinals looking ahead to their game against FSU next weekend, a team they lost 41-21 to last season. Syracuse: The Orange have the benefit of playing three straight at home to open the year. Next weekend they play USF. Syracuse has its sights set on a bowl game this season after a disastrous 2015/16 campaign. 16 players return, so new coach Dino Babers has a lot to work with this season. The bottom line: Cardinals’ QB Lamar Jackson was outstanding in the win over the 49ers, but the step up in competition is significant in league play today. We think the Orange can hang with Louisville offensively and make this one a little more interesting than what Vegas believes. Also note that Louisville is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven as a fav in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Syracuse is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 in front of the home town crowd. Grab as many points as you can on the ORANGE. AAA Sports |
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09-08-16 | Panthers -3 v. Broncos | 20-21 | Loss | -117 | 123 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* OPENING NIGHT ATS SIDE BEATDOWN on the Carolina Panthers. Setting the scene: The Denver defense beat Cam Newton and the Panthers in Super Bowl 50. We had a play on the UNDER, on the Broncos and a 2-team 7-point teaser on Denver and the UNDER as well to finish 3-0, 100% +$3,000 in the big game. QB Peyton Manning would not play a big part in the team’s victory, it was, as mentioned above, the Broncos’ defensive unit which turned out to be the differnce in the end. While that unit returns in tact for the most part this year, we think it’s not going to be enough this time around as we expect this revenge minded visiting side to lay the hammer down early and often tonight. Carolina: Newton led his team to a 15-1 record last year and he’d go on to finish with 3,800 yards and a career high 35 TD’s to just ten INT’s. The offense averaged a league high 31.3 PPG and is now even more dangerous with the return of WR Kelvin Benjamin, who tore his ACL and missed the entire season in 2015/16. You’ll also want to track TE Greg Olsen also, in fantasy league’s he’s only behind Rob Gronkowski as far as offensive production is concerned at the position. The defense took a hit with the loss of CB Josh Norman, but otherwise the unit is in tact and expected to have another big campaign, note that it held the opposition to just 19.3 PPG last year, good for sixth in the league. Denver: The spotlight is on rookie QB Trevor Siemian, who wasn’t overly spectacular in the preseason, finishing 20 of 32 for one TD and two INT’s. CJ Anderson will be leaned upon heavily, not only in this game, but throughout the season as the Broncos’ offense will be using the run to set up the pass. But when you have a defense led by Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, you have a legitimate shot at winning any game at all on the schedule. As the Denver defense goes, so go the the Broncos. The offense averaged 22.2 PPG last year, the defense allowed 18.5. The bottom line: This is all about revenge tonight. Carolina has had this date circled since the final whistle of Super Bowl 50. Newton especially will have something to prove and we’re expecting the dynamic pivot to put the foot on the gas and to keep the pedal to the metal until the very end. All signs point to a lop-sided, wire-to-wire beatdown, lay the points on the PANTHERS. AAA Sports |
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09-05-16 | Ole Miss +5 v. Florida State | Top | 34-45 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Ole Miss. Setting the scene: Both teams are ranked and each are coming off 10-3 seasons. We think this one is going to be war right down until the final whistle, a contest which could very likely be decided by whichever team has the ball in its possession in the final moments. In this expected competitive affair, we’re going to recommend grabbing the points. Mississippi: The Rebels catch a break as this is in fact a neutral site game, being played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando. Ole Miss put up an average of 334.7 YPG through the air last year and also racked up an additional 183.1 YPG on the ground. The offense is led by QB Chad Kelly, who notched 4042 passing yards and a 31:13 TD:INT ratio. The unit does have a couple of holes to fill because of players leaving to go to the NFL, but Markell Pack, DaMarkus Lodge and Damore’ea Stringfellow are set to the fill the void at the WR position. Defensively the team was pretty good, allowing 258.8 through the air and a much better 127.1 YPG on the ground. The run defense is going to have to be sharp today in facing one of the top RB’s in the nation. Florida State: FSU averaged 255.8 YPG passing last year and 168.2 YPG on the round. Heisman trophy candidate Dalvin Cook will be leaned upon heavily in this game and throughout the season. And that’s because the Seminoles will be starting a freshman under center, Deondre Francois is expected to be among the best in the conference by the end of the season, but he’s being thrown directly into the fire in having to face one of the best defensive units in the SEC in his first game. The bottom line: Note that the Rebels are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine neutral-site games, while FSU is 0-5 ATS in the same position. We think Ole Miss can win the battle in the trenches and at the point of attack, putting the pressure on Francois to step up. Kelly is tested and proven and he’ll be the difference maker today. While we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, as stated off the top, we’re going to grab as many points as we can in this one. Play on OLE MISS. AAA Sports |
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09-03-16 | Clemson -7 v. Auburn | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -116 | 74 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Clemson. Setting the scene: Clemson played in the College Football Championship Game last season and will be looking for a repeat performance this year as well. Auburn is expected to be much more competitive after finishing 7-6 last season, but still clearly has miles to go before being able to hang with the best in the nation. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we expect Clemson to have pulled away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Clemson: Quarterback DeShaun Watson will be fired up and looking to make a statement to open the season, his only loss of the year came against Alabama in the Nat. Champ game. Watson completed 67.8 percent of his passes for 4,104 yards, 35 TDs and 13 INT’s last year. He was also the team’s second leading rusher with 1,105 yards on the ground and another 12 major scores. Leading rusher Wayne Gallman is also back and he totaled 1,527 rushing yards and 13 TD’s. Auburn: It finished dead last in the SEC West. It also finished ranked 85th out of 128 FBS teams in total defense last season. The bottom line: Auburn’s secondary should be much improved this year, but the unit is young and likely faces its stiffest test of the entire season right out of the gate. Too much Gallman and too much Watson in this one, play on CLEMSON. AAA Sports |
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09-03-16 | Southern Miss v. Kentucky -6 | 44-35 | Loss | -120 | 73 h 43 m | Show | |
Setting the scene: Nick Mullens and Southern Miss are going to try and play spoiler in Kentucky’s home opener, but we think that the Wildcats ground attack will be just too much for the Golden Eagles in the end. Southern Miss: The Golden Eagles had a solid 2015, scoring 50-plus points on five different occasions. First year haed coach Jay Hopson has the luxury of an offense which returns its top passer and rusher from last season, but that said, we think the Golden Eagles will have a more difficult time in trying to fool anyone this year. Mullens will once again be the focal point this season, last year he threw for more than 4,400 yards and 38 TD’s. That was under former head coach Todd Monken’s offense though and we think their will be some growing pains in this new system. Kentucky: The Wildcats finished 5-7 on the year after starting the season 4-1. The heat is on fourth year heach coach Mark Stoops as his current record sits at 12-24. Stoops has to be feeling pretty confident that he can finally guide his team to a bowl game this year because of his team’s strong ground game, as both JoJo Kemp and Stanley “Boom” Williams each reached 1,000 career rushing yards last season. The Wildcats also return most of their offensive line, a unit which gained a ton of experience in 2015. The bottom line: We’ll call these horrible defenses a “wash,” but Southern Miss simply doesn’t have the size to slow down Kentucky’s ground attack. The Cats have the better line-up top to bottom and we think they’ll do just enough to score the victory in front of the home town crowd. Play on KENTUCKY. AAA Sports |
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09-03-16 | Texas State v. Ohio -21 | 56-54 | Loss | -106 | 69 h 55 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BATTLE OF THE BOBCATS ATS BLOWOUT on Ohio. Setting the scene: Is Texas State poised for a break out year? Can Ohio duplicate its 8-4 season from a year ago and or better that mark? If history is any precedence, then those answers are “no,” and “yes.” Note that Texas State allowed at least 37 points in each road game last year, going 0-6, while Ohio would go 5-1 at home. The Texas State Bobcats: Texas State will have its hands full today vs. Ohio’s pass oriented offense. The Bobcats finished ninth in the 11-team Sun Belt in pass defense last year. Texas State brings back QB Tyler Jones and RB Tyler Siudzinski, but doesn’t have a single player on the roster who caught more than one pass last season. The Ohio Bobcats: Ohio possesses a trio of top rated WR’s in Sebastian Smith (who had 65 passes for 777 yards and seven TD’s last year), Jordan Reid (45 catches for 616 yards and five TD’s) and Brendan Cope (30, 510, 2). QB JD Sprague is gone, but Greg Windham is expected to fill in seamlessly. It’s hard to imagine Texas State slowing down these three guys whatsoever. Ohio is also strong in the backfield, an attack led by AJ Ouellette, who had 687 yards and six TD’s last season. The bottom line: Texas State has just 71 players on scholarship compared to roughly 85 for most teams, so that immediately limits its overall depth. This is a major mismatch in all three phases, all signs point to a lop-sided destruction. Play on OHIO. AAA Sports |
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08-28-16 | Cardinals +1 v. Texans | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Cardinals. Setting the scene: The Cards are 0-2 to open the preseason, while the Texans are 2-0. The preseason is completely meaningless, but we think that Arizona will be the hungrier of these two teams as it looks to finally break into the win column. Arizona: Expect head coach Bruce Arians to leave his starting QB Carson Palmer in a bit longer than usual this week as he looks to get the offense untracked. Backup QB Drew Stanton is viewed upon by many as being the best No. 2 in the league, but he hasn’t turned many heads yet either. Houston: DE JJ Watt will not be playing. Brock Osweiler has looked decent, but not great so far for his new team. Houston is already a sexy dark horse pick for many, but we’re going to caution in reading too much into a couple of decent preseason contests. The bottom line: We think the intensity in which the CARDINALS play with today turns out to be the difference in the end. AAA Sports |
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08-26-16 | California -20 v. Hawaii | 51-31 | Push | 0 | 275 h 54 m | Show | |
This is an 8* FAN APPRECIATION BLOWOUT on California. Setting the scene: Cal finished 8-5 last year and has a big hole to replace in QB Jared Goff, who went to the LA Rams in the NFL draft. Hawaii was just 3-10 and is once again rebuilding, this time bringing in former QB Nick Rolovich as head coach to try and resurrect the program. This is a weird opening game, as it’s being played in Australia and while the players on both sides will have to deal with external factors, for us this one boils down to how important of a game this is for the Golden Bears. Cal: Not only do the Golden Bears have to replace Goff, but they also have to deal with a tough schedule this season, making tonight’s game extra important. Cal welcomes in transfer Davis Webb, who started his career at Texas Tech. He’d throw for over 5,550 yards with 46 TD’s with the Red Raiders, so the pivot is a proven talent. He’ll be leaning heavily on a stable of competent backs and he has plenty of new weapons to throw to after the team replaced six receivers this offseason. Rainbow Warriors: Ikaika Woolsey has been named the starting QB for Hawaii, he has 37 games to his credit and has completed 49 percent of his passes for 908 yards with five TD’s and six picks. Hawaii finished near the bottom of the nation on both sides of the ball last year. The bottom line: We’re expecting a comfortable cover by half time. Cal lost a bunch of talent, but it has the better players on the field today and a lot more to play for. Look for Webb and company to put the foot on the gas until the final horn, play on CALIFORNIA. AAA Sports |
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08-25-16 | Indians +1.5 v. Rangers | 0-9 | Loss | -155 | 26 h 47 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Cleveland Indians. Setting the scene: Cleveland took two of three from visiting Toronto, but then dropped two of three to Oakland, including yesterday’s 5-1 setback. The Indians were likely caught looking ahead to their important series in Texas which starts tonight and now the visitors will look to get back on track with a much better effort. Josh Tomlin: He’s 11-7 with a 4.39 ERA. Tomlin comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up six runs over four innings vs. the Blue Jays on Saturday. Note that he’s been decent on the road this year, going 6-3 with 4.07 ERA. Cole Hamels: He’s 13-4 with a 2.80 ERA. Hamels comes in off a strong outing vs. the soft-hitting Rays on Friday, allowing one earned run over seven innings in the eventual 6-2 victory. Hamels has posted five straight quality starts but is just 2-2 in that span. Hamels has been a beast on the road (1.91 ERA), but very average at home (4.05) this season. The bottom line: These teams have both been scuffling offensively of late and with these two competent starters going head to head, all signs point to runs once again being at a premium tonight. In a contest which we see being decided late or in extras, we’re going to lay what we deem to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the INDIANS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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08-20-16 | Chiefs +3 v. Rams | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 125 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Kansas City Chiefs. Setting the scene: We jumped on this line early in the week and got Kansas City at +3 and it’s since come down to closer to +1, but regardless, we love the Chiefs to assert themselves this evening after letting their Week 1 contest slip away on a no-time left on the clock heave by the Seahawks. LA on the other hand is primed for a letdown tonight after it stormed back from a 24-7 halftime deficit to beat the Cowboys 28-24 last weekend. The Chiefs: Despite losing 17-16 at home on a 37-yard pass from Trevone Boykin to Tanner McEvoy with no time left on the clock, the Chiefs pretty much dominated the Seahawks in every category last week. Backup QB Nick Foles is expected to see considerable time today and he’ll be a difference maker tonight in our professional opinion. The Rams: Case Keenum has been named the starter, so the pressure is off first-round pick Goff, who struggled mightily last week. Keenum was 6 of 7 for 58 yards, but it was Sean Mannion who picked up the slack by going 18 of 25 for 147 yards and three TD’s. LA looked poor on the defensive end and we think it’ll have its hands full with this dynamic Chiefs offense today as well. The bottom line: KANSAS CITY is the much more motivated team today, grab the points. AAA Sports |
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08-19-16 | Jets v. Redskins -3.5 | 18-22 | Win | 100 | 99 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washington Redskins. Setting the scene: Ultimately we think that New York will simply go through the motions today as it looks ahead to the all important Week 3 of the presason. New York: The Jets opened the preseason with a satisfying 17-13 home win over Jacksonville last Thursday and suffice it to say, we’re expecting a classic “letdown” tonight. New York held out several starters in that game, including RB Matt Forte and defensive starts Muhammad Wilkerson and Darrelle Revis. None of these players is expected to suit up today either. New York got good production from its QB’s, but we can expect to see a heavy dose of Bryce Petty today. Washington: The only week that team’s really care about in the preseason is Week 3, but after falling 23-17 in Atlanta last week, the Redskins are going to be the “hungrier” side today. Ultimately it was 14 penalties for 123 yards which did Washington in. The bottom line: We think Jay Gruden will be much more prepared in Week 2 and with an opportunity to get a win in front of the home town crowd, we’re expecting the coach to open up the playbook. Kirk Cousins is expected to see more time than Ryan Fitzpatrick today, which is also a major factor working in our favor. We’re laying the points and backing the determined home side, play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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08-18-16 | Brewers v. Cubs -1.5 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs. Setting the scene: Zach Davies has been a nice surprise this season for the Brewers, but Jake Arrieta is in an entirely different league than his young counterpart in our professional opinion. We’re expecting a major lop-sided blowout when the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one. Davies: He’s 9-5 with a 3.80 ERA. He comes in off a “dud,” allowing five runs off eight hits in a loss to the soft-hitting Reds on Saturday. Arrieta: He’s 14-5 with a 2.55 ERA. The Cubs’ ace comes in off a gem vs. the Cardinals on Friday, allowing an earned run off four hits and two walks while also striking out six over six innings. Arrieta has now allowed just three earned runs over his last 20.2 innings of work spanning his last three starts. He’s been very good in all day games this season, going 9-3 with a 2.31 ERA, but he’s been even better at home though by posting a minuscule 1.70 ERA. The bottom line: Chicago cruised to a 6-1 victory with Jon Lester on the mound yesterday and we have a hard time seeing the Brewers being able to muster much of an offense today either. Look for the surging CUBS to pull ahead early and never look back. AAA Sports |
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08-14-16 | Texans +3 v. 49ers | Top | 24-13 | Win | 110 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Houston Texans. Setting the scene: Houston’s future looks bright with the addition of QB Brock Osweiler. San Francisco is excited to have new coach Chip Kelly directing things, but the 49ers’ QB picture isn’t very clear at this point. While we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we’re going to recommend to grab as many points as you can. Houston: These teams met in the 2015 NFL preseason opener and Houston would go on to win by a 23-10 decision. Osweiler is expected to see considerable time in the first half of this one, note that he completed 170 of 275 passes in eight games for the Broncos last year. Tom Savage and Brandon Weeden will be battling it out for the No. 1 backup spot. San Francisco: Colin Kaepernick? Blaine Gabbert? Which one will be the starting QB on Opening Day is anyone’s guess at this point, but the winner of this battle will likely be the one that can grasp Kelly’s elaborate schemes the most quickly. Kaepernick completed 59% of his passes and tossed only six TD’s compared to five INT’s last year, while Gabbert completed 63.1 percent, while throwing ten TD’s compared to seven INT’s. The bottom line: Houston seems like the more co-hesive unit to open the preseason as we’re expecting the 49ers to need some time to adjust to Kelly’s new direction. Play on the TEXANS. AAA Sports |
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08-13-16 | Cowboys v. Rams -5 | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the LA Rams. Setting the scene: The St. Louis…I mean, the LA Rams return to Los Angeles to play their first game in their “new” city. The new look Rams will welcome “America’s Team” in the Dallas Cowboys to town, a club which finished just 4-12 last season after QB Tony Romo went down with injury early on. Dallas: The Cowboys drafted RB Ezekiel Elliot out of Ohio State to help with their offensive issues this offseason. Expect to see a bunch of backup QB Dak Prescott out of Mississippi State as well. LA: The Rams finished 7-9 last year. The team traded up to get the No. 1 pick in the 2016 Draft and selected QB Jared Goff out of Cal. LA would use five of its six picks in total to address the offensive side of the ball. The bottom line: Neither team instills much confidence at the moment, but we think the pressure is on the home side to perform right out of the gates, even in Week 1 of the preseason. Billions of dollars have been spent and a victory tonight would go a long way in impressing owners, management and the new fan base. Jason Garrett and the Cowboys have a lot of things to work on in the preseason, but winning in Week 1 is not of any importance whatsoever. Lay the point on the RAMS. AAA Sports |
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08-12-16 | Vikings +3 v. Bengals | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 25 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ART OF WAR on the Minnesota Vikings. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Setting the scene: The Vikes were 4-1 in the preseason last year, also beating the Steelers 14-3 in the Hall Of Fame Game. The Bengals were 3-1. The Bengals: Cincinnati has Andy Dalton back under center this year and he’ll likely see a few snaps today. The majority of work will be for backup AJ McCarron, who played well in his time last season, as well as a fight between Keith Wenning and Joe Licata for the No. 3 job. Don’t expect to see much, if any of the starters playing for the home side today though. The Vikings: The offense is led by RB Adrian Peterson, but he won’t be suiting up for this one. Teddy Bridgewater also won’t see much time today under center, but backup QB’s Shaun Hill and Taylor Heinke will be battling throughout the preseason for the No. 2 spot. And we think this is a significant advantage to us today. The bottom line: ATS stats are completely meaningless in a game like this in our professional opinion. The major factor swaying us tonight is that the Bengals already know who their starting and backup QB’s are, while the Vikes have a big competition on their hands. It’s as simple as that and while we wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, we’ll recommend to grab as many points as you can. Play on MINNESOTA. AAA Sports |
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08-11-16 | Broncos v. Bears -1.5 | Top | 22-0 | Loss | -106 | 106 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* Week 1 NFLX SIDE OF THE YEAR on the Chicago Bears. “Motivation” is a big factor to take into account when handicapping any game. For the most part teams use the preseason as a time to figure out what they need to work on and which people to keep and which to let go. Most week’s games are completely meaningless in the preseason, but every now and then there comes along a situation where one side would be more motivated than the other and in our professional opinion, that’s the case here! Denver: The Broncos just won the Super Bowl and their future Hall Of Fame QB retired immediately after. Clearly Denver could care less if it wins today, it has so many issues to deal with and address, including a QB competition after backup Brock Osweiler also left the team in the offseason. Chicago: Da Bears finished 6-10 last year despite QB Jay Cutler putting together one of his best seasons, posting a career-best 92.4 passer rating. The bottom line: It was another dismal season for Chicago last year, but here’s the perfect opponent to start the 2016/17 season off against. A win against the defending champions in front of the home town crowd will be something everyone in the organization will be hungry to accomplish. While both teams will be utilzing almost entirely backup and wannabe players, we think the motivation factor does indeed heavily favor the BEARS this evening. AAA Sports |
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08-06-16 | Giants v. Nationals -1.5 | 7-1 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Washington Nationals. We think the massive talent discrepancy on the mound this evening absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the “pick-em” price. The visitors hand the ball to the struggling Matt Cain (3-6, 5.53 ERA) who notched his second win of the year vs. the Reds on Tuesday despite getting shelled for four runs off six hits. Cain has been the very model of inconsistency this season and if he’s had one true weakness then it’s clearly been his play on the road where he’s a disturbing 0-3 with a ballooned 7.48 ERA. The home side counters with ace Stephen Strasburg (15-1, 2.63) who comes in off a gem vs. Arizona on Monday, giving up one run off three scattered hits to go along with six K’s over six innings in the eventual victory. Strasburg has now given up one run or fewer in all but one of his past seven starts and he has 51 K’s to just 15 walks over his last 47.2 innings of work. The hard-hitting Nationals have to be liking their chances today obviously as Strasburg is 7-1 with a 3.35 ERA at home thus far and an almost incomprehensible 9-0 with a 2.23 ERA in all “night” games to date. All signs point to a lop-sided destruction, play on the NATIONALS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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07-27-16 | Reds v. Giants -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a 5* FAN APPRECIATION ASSASSIN on the San Francisco Giants on the RUN-LINE. This is a mismatch of Titanic proportions, it’s a perfect opportunity to pull the trigger on a strategic “run-line” play. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Dan Straily (5-6, 4.01 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits over six innings in a victory over Arizona on Friday. Straily has shown flashes of brilliance at times this year but he has also looked very pedestrian in others and if he’s had one clear weakness this season it’s been his play on the road where he’s gone just 2-5 with a ballooned 4.96 ERA. The home side counters with ace Madison Bumgarner (10-5, 2.14) who gave up two runs over seven innings in a no-decision vs. the Yanks on Friday. It wasn’t his best outing, but Bumgarner settled down nicely after a rocky couple of innings and he’s got to be feeling very confident in this spot today as he’s 5-2 with a tiny 1.64 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year and an even better 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in all “day” games. The massive talent discrepancy on the mound this afternoon absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price. Play on the GIANTS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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07-26-16 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Brewers | 4-9 | Loss | -190 | 25 h 6 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Arizona Diamondbacks. In a contest which we feel will be decided late or in extra innings, we’re going to recommend laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors turn to Patrick Corbin (4-9, 5.23 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget vs. the hard-hitting Blue Jays on Wednesday, allowing six runs over 5.2 innings. Corbin though has been a complete “Jekyll and Hyde” hurler this year, going 0-7 at home but a very respectable 4-2 with a 3.64 ERA on the road. The home side counters with confirmed “gas can” Matt Garza (1-4, 5.94) who was blasted for five runs off eight hits over five innings in a setback to the Pirates on Thursday. Garza has now dropped four straight and has five consecutive outings in which he’s been shelled for at least four runs. Unfortunately a date at home is not what the doctor ordered for Garza to get untracked as he owns a poor 6.00 ERA in Mliwaukee so far this year. Play on the DIAMONDBACKS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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07-21-16 | Padres v. Cardinals -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -101 | 22 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION St. Louis Cardinals. We think that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound today absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the “pick-em” price. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Andrew Cashner (4-7, 5.05 ERA) who has looked a bit better of late, but who has for the most part been consistently inconsistent all season. Cashner has certainly struggled in this spot all year as well, going a deplorable 0-4 with an atrocious 7.83 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with ace Adam Wainwright (9-5, 4.15) who after a slow start to the season, has come on like “gang-busters” and who comes in off a gem, scattering three hits and striking out five with no runs allowed to earn the victory over the Marliners on Saturday. Wainwright comes in with a ton of momentum and confidence, allowing just one earned run over his last 25 innings of work. The Cards have to be loving their chances today obviously as Wainwright is already 5-2 with a very respectable 2.54 ERA in front of the home town crowd to date. We love Wainwright in this matchup and expect his team to also take full advantage of his favorable mismatch. Play on the CARDINALS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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07-19-16 | Dodgers +1.5 v. Nationals | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a 5* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the LA Dodgers. In what we believe will be a tightly contested affair, we’re going to recommend laying the price for the extra run and a half of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Scott Kazmir (7-3, 4.52 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits and three walks over just three innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the Padres on Friday. He did strike out five though. It was a crummy start for Kazmir, but the southpaw had delivered his best outing of the year his last time out and had a very respectable 3.18 ERA over his last three combined. He’ll now look to bounce back and improve upon his 5-3, 3.78 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Reynaldo Lopez (0-0, 0.00) who will make his big league debut tonight. Lopez made just two starts at Triple-A, but owned a decent 3.18 ERA and 4.0 K:BB ratio over 76.1 innings for Double-A Harrisburg. Play on the DODGERS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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07-06-16 | Wales +0.5 v. PORTUGAL | 0-2 | Loss | -135 | 68 h 7 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Wales +0.5 goal. We’ve played on Wales twice so far in this tournament and won each time. We think the underdog has another legitimate shot today and while we wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, we’re going to suggest grabbing the +0.5 goal. Portugal has completely underwhelmed so far in this tournament, yet to even win a game in regular time, needing a late goal and then the shootout to advance past Poland on Thursday. Wales on the other hand continues to get little respect, both from its opponents, but also from the bookmakers as it’s lost only once in the first five games of the tournament, a very unfortunate 2-1 defeat at the hands of England, a contest in which it had a 1-0 lead with just a few minutes left in regulation. Portugal is playing with significant absences as well today as William Cavarlho was booked in quarter-final clash with Poland, while fullback Raphael Guerreiro and midfielder Andre Gomes are still sidelined with their respective injuries. Wales has nothing to lose here and we think will take underachieving Portugal down to the wire. Play on WALES +0.5 goal. AAA Sports |
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06-24-16 | Montreal +2.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 22-14 | Win | 100 | 33 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Montreal Alouettes. These teams met in the preseason just a couple of weeks ago and the Blue Bombers would beat the Alouettes. It’s the real deal tonight though and in our opinion, Montreal’s stout defense will be the difference tonight. Last year the Als would allow just 20 PPG. Kevin Glenn gets the call under center and he’ll be leaned up on for guidance this year. Winnipeg on the other hand is a bit of a wild card right now in our opinion, its roster was drastically overhauled in the offseason. Winnipeg finished as one of the worst in the league last year, so having an entirely different roster is likely a good thing, but there’s no question the team is going to have to go through a transition period before any sort of chemistry can be created. We’re basing this pick on MONTREAL’s defense, grab as many points as you can. AAA Sports |
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06-23-16 | White Sox v. Red Sox -1.5 | 7-8 | Loss | -113 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Boston Red Sox. No need to overanalyze this one, James Shields (2-9, 6.28 ERA) is quite possibly the worst pitcher in the league. Most recently Shields was pounded for eight runs off seven hits and three walks while striking out two over just 1.2 innings in a setback to the Indians on Saturday. The beleagured journeymen would allow ten baserunners while only retiring five batters in his short amount of time on the mound. Shields has now allowed 21 earned runs in his 8.2 innings of work with Chicago to give him an almost incomprehensible 21.81 ERA. The home side counters with Rick Porcello (8-2, 3.76) who most recently gave up two runs off eight hits while stirking out six over six innings in the eventual 6-2 victory over the Mariners on Saturday. And note that Porcello has been particularly strong in this spot all year, 3-0 with a 3.73 ERA in all “day” games and 6-0 with a 3.03 ERA in front of the home town crowd. Shields’ amazing inconsistency on the mound coupled with the White Sox anemic ways at the plate, make Porcello and the RED SOX on the RUN LINE the correct move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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06-17-16 | Braves v. Mets -1.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -130 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets. John Gant is in over his head here as Matt Harvey continues to turn the corner. Gant (0-1, 5.63 ERA) went just four innings in a loss to the Cubs on Sunday, giving up three runs off four hits to go along with four walks. Gant remains in the Braves’ rotation due to neccessity. Harvey (4-8, 4.66) comes in off his second straight dominant start, giving up just one run off four scattered hits while striking out three over seven innings in an unfortunate 1-0 setback to Miami on Sunday. Harvey has now allowed just one run over his last 14 innings of work. The Mets almost blew a 6-0 lead late, but managed to hold on for the win vs. the Pirates last night. We’re expecting the home side to take advantage of this favorable matchup and predict a lop-sided destruction from start to finish. Lay the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price, play on the METS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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06-14-16 | Phillies v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE PLAY OF THE MONTH on the Toronto Blue Jays. After yesterday’s 7-0 series opening setback, we’re expecting the home side to respond in similar fashion today. Despite his recent struggles, Jays’ “ace” Marcus Stroman has a big advantage this afternoon. Monday’s loss came on the heels of a tough four game series over the Baltimore Orioles in which Toronto would go 3-1, three of the contests being decided by a single run: "Today was kind of a letdown," said R.A. Dickey, who took the loss last night. "I don't think we played with a lot of energy today. We had a lot of games where lately we've been very invested against division opponents. It's plausible that that would be the case. You play the Phillies, and they don't have a winning record. It was just a low-energy day for us all around it felt like. Thank goodness it only counts for one loss, you know? It feels like a lot worse." With that wake up call now behind them, we’re expecting Toronto to take advantage today. The Phillies trot out Zach Eflin to make his major league debut. Eflin was 5-2 with a 2.90 ERA in 11 starts in Triple-A. Stroman (5-2, 4.94) gave up four runs with two K’s over 5 1/3’s innings vs. the Orioles on Thursday, earning a no-decision in the 6-5 setback. Stroman though is 3-0 with a tiny 1.72 ERA in seven interleague games, including three starts. Game 2 favors the home side, we’re expecting a convincing victory (note that the Jays are 28-18 their last 46 interleague contests for +5.3 units). Lay the 1.5 runs for the “pick-em” price, play on TORONTO on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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06-09-16 | Jamaica v. Mexico -1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 78 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Mexico (-1.5 goals -110). The Jamaican’s are no joke, but Mexico is on a mission and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, we’re expecting El Tri to have won convincingly. With a victory over Jamaica, Mexico will clinch a spot in the quarterfinals. Coach Juan Carlos Osorio has a perfect record in eight matche since taking charge after El Tri took out Uruguay 3-1 in the opening game. Mexico has a big advantage, as all three of its opening round games are in large southern American cities which have giant latino populations (this one is being played in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California). If history is any precedence, then El Tri has to be feeling confident, they’ve won eight and lost just once in the last ten vs. the Reggae Boyz. These teams last met in the Gold Cup Final last year and Mexico won 3-1 and since then Jamaica has taken a step back, amassing just four points from its first four games in penultimate round of the Concacaf World Cup qualifying. We look for Osorio to continue his mastery of putting together effective line-ups and for El Tri to domiante from start to finish. Play on MEXICO -1.5 goals. AAA Sports |
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06-08-16 | Cubs v. Phillies +1.5 | 8-1 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 0 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies won outright yesterday and have a legitimate shot at pulling off another straight up upset this afternoon in our opinion. The Cubs send veteran John Lackey to the hill, who has gotten better as the season has progressed. Lackey is 3-1 with a 1.83 ERA since May 1st, but note that if he’s had one glaring weakness this season, it’s clearly been his play on the road where he’s posted a pedestrian 4.55 ERA. The home side counters with Vince Velasquez (5-2, 3.67) who started the season on fire, but who has since cooled off. Velasquez though has been “lights out” at home, 3-1 with a tiny 1.26 ERA. Velasquez has something to prove today and we’re expecting him to go deep with Lackey and in a contest which we foresse being decided late or even in extra innings, we’re going to grab the 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the PHILLIES on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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06-02-16 | Cavs +6 v. Warriors | Top | 89-104 | Loss | -115 | 59 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Cleveland Cavaliers. Handicapping a series is much like coaching one, you have to make necessary adjustments from game-to-game. We think the Cavaliers are the way to go in Game 1. Can LeBron James, along with a healthy Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving steal this one outright? Obviously it wouldn’t be a complete shocker if the Cavs pulled off the series opening straight-up upset. In fact, James won Games 1 and 3, before succumbing in six to the Warriors in last year’s Finals. We feel this is a great situational play as Golden State comes into the Finals tired and injured, while for the most part it’s been a walk-in-the-park for Cleveland to this point. The Warriors have not been blowing teams out of the water in the postseason and were taken to the wire by the Oklahoma City Thunder, they’d become one of only three teams in NBA playoff history to claw back from a 3-1 deficit. How much gas is left in the tank for the defending champs after that series? And after setting the NBA record for regular season wins? There is no more “aura” of invincibility on their home floor. Cleveland on the other hand has given James plenty of rest throughout the regular season and in the playoffs and now “The King” is ready to do what he does best. Clearly James’ supporting cast is light-years better than it was last season. The Cavs are ready to play “small ball,” and they’re equipped to play in the paint as well. In a contest which we feel will come down to whichever team has the ball in its hands last, we’re going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the CAVALIERS. AAA Sports |
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05-31-16 | Padres +1.5 v. Mariners | 4-16 | Loss | -143 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the San Diego Padres. We think we’re getting great value on James Shields and the Padres on the “run line” (+1.5 runs). Shields (2-6, 3.06 ERA) went six frames vs. the Giants on Wednesday, giving up two runs off five hits while striking out six and walking one. Despite his record, Shields has pitched well of late and he’s been effective on the road with a stingy 2.33 ERA. The home side counters with Hisashi Iwakuma (3-4, 4.33) who comes in off a victory after holding the A’s to three runs off eight hits in a 13-3 rout. We’re a little hesitant to say that Iwakuma has completely turned the corner yet and certainly his sub-par 1-2, 5.55 ERA home record leaves everything to be desired. Getting Shields with an extra 1.5 runs in this matchup and at this price is just too good to turn down, play on the PADRES on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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05-30-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7 | Top | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 38 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Golden State Warriors. It’s been a back and forth series and here we are in Game 7. Golden State has reeled off two straight victories and now has a clear advantage in playing this decisive contest on its own floor. The Thunder have already won two games in Golden State, but we think Oklahoma City has a letdown here after failing to secure the series victory on its own floor in Game 6. The Thunder had a late collapse in the fourth quarter and Golden State, spurred by 41 total points from Klay Thompson, would use a 19-5 surge to seal the deal. We simply can’t see Golden State faltering here. The Thunder have completely exceeded everyone’s expectations and the combination of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant is a formidable one, but the Warriors’ starters are just too good and we believe they’ll have their best game yet of the Western Conference Finals. Note that Oklahoma City is just 6-11 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite, while Golden State is 2-1 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog. The NBA is going to get what it wanted, a rematch between Cleveland and the Warriors. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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05-27-16 | Twins v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE PLAY OF THE MONTH on the Seattle Mariners. We feel that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound this evening absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, expect the home side to have pulled away for the convincing beatdown victory. The visitors turn to Pat Dean (0-1, 3.86 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off three hits and three walks over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Jays on Saturday. The book is clearly still out on Dean, who will once again be thrown to the wolves in having to face Felix Hernandez (4-3, 2.21) who comes in off a gem, giving up no runs off four hits and three walks with five K’s over six innings in a victory vs. Cincinnati on Saturday. It was the third time this season that “The King” has held an opponent scoreless in an outing. Note that Hernandez is 2-1 with a tiny 1.55 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. We are a big fan of playing against over priced favorites, but in this case, we’re expecting Hernandez and Seattle to take full advantage of this situation. Play on the MARINERS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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05-25-16 | Padres +1.5 v. Giants | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RUN-LINE play on the San Diego Padres. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to starting pitching. When looking at these two starters, there’s no question which team has the advantage. The home side though has the advantage at the plate, but we think James Shields and the visiting Friars will muster enough offense to at the very least, keep this one close to cover with the 1.5 runs of insurance. Shields (2-6, 3.07 ERA) gave up three runs (two earned) off nine hits over six innings vs. the Giants on Thursday, also striking out seven and walking just one. It was a second straight start in which the Friars’ ace has struck out more than a batter per inning while issuing just a single walk. Note that Shields has been better on the road than at home this year as well, posting a tiny 2.14 ERA away from friendly confines. The home side counters with confirmed “gas can” Jake Peavy (1-5, 8.21) who owns a terrible 1.90 WHIP this season. Peavy most recently was blasted for five runs off seven hits, including a homer over just 1.2 innings pitched. Note that Peavy has been particularly horrible in this spot already this season, going 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in day games. Play on the PADRES on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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05-25-16 | Cubs v. Cardinals +1.5 | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RUN-LINE play on the St. Louis Cardinals. Jake Arrieta is obvoiusly “the man,” but so was Chris Sale, who just finished getting rocked in a loss to the Indians last night. After getting its butt kicked 12-3 yesterday, we think St. Louis comes into this one much more focused. Arrieta (8-0, 1.29 ERA) is the fifth pitcher in MLB history to win at least 18 straight regular-season decisions. Interesting to note though that the last time he lost on the road, was a 5-1 defeat at St. Louis on May 7th, 2015. The home side counters with Carlos Martinez (4-4, 3.56) who started the season strong, but who has since fallen off. Martinez though benefits in facing this struggling Cubs’ lineup, we’ll caution in reading too much into yesterday’s offensive outbust, as remember Chicago had totaled just six runs over a three-game skid previous. And if history is any precedence, then Martinez has to be liking his chances for scoring an upset today as he’s always fared well against Chicago, going 3-0 with a 2.55 ERA in his last four vs. it. We think Martinez can hang with Arrieta into the latter frames and in a contest which we see being decided late or in extras, we’ll lay the pick-em price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the CARDS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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05-25-16 | Phillies +1.5 v. Tigers | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 6* RUN-LINE play on the Philadelphia Phillies. Aaron Nola (3-3, 2.85 ERA) isn’t coming off his best outing of the year, he’d allow five runs (two earned), off seven hits, walking two and striking out six over seven innings of a 7-1 loss to the Braves on Friday. A three-run home run by Mikael Franco did the most damage. Nola’s future is bright, possessing one of the best curve-balls in the business and note that he’s already 2-0 with a tiny 1.32 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Anibal Sanchez (3-5, 6.23), who continued his up-and-down season on Friday by getting blasted for five runs off six hits with two walks over five innings in a setback to Tampa Bay. Sanchez has shown glimpses of promise here and there, but for the most part he must now be considered a failure, he’s made it into the seventh inning just once in nine appearances this year and is already winless in four May starts (note that he owns a 6.08 ERA in all day games and an even worse 7.23 ERA at home). In a contest which we believe will be decided late or in extras, we’re going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. AAA Sports |
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05-23-16 | Phillies -1.5 v. Tigers | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are one of the worst offensive clubs in the league, but they’re backed by what we feel to be the clearly superior starter. In a contest which we predict will be decided late or in extra innings, we’re going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez (5-1, 2.42 ERA) who gave up three hits and two walks while stirking out ten over five scoreless innings in a victory over the Marlins on Tuesday. The home side counters with the erratic Mike Pelfrey (0-4, 5.49) who gave up two runs off seven hits and a walk with three K’s over five innings in a no-decision vs. Minnesota on Tuesday. Pelfrey has now allowed eight home runs in as many starts this year and he has only 23 strikeouts in 41 innings of work (and note that Pelfrey owns a poor 0-2, 6.10 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year). Play on the PHILLIES on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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05-20-16 | Mariners v. Reds +1.5 | 8-3 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Cincinnati Reds. These two teams are moving in opposite directions. The Mariners have been getting the job done this season with extremely fantastic play on the road. The Reds have simply been a disaster to this point, but will obviously be the hungrier of the two teams as they look to break the slide and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Unbelievably the Mariners are 6-0-1 in road series and 15-7 overall away from friendly confines. Hisashi Iwakuma (1-4, 4.38 ERA) gets the call for the vistiors and he’s been terrible so far this year, most recently he was rocked for four runs and a season-high nine hits over 6 1/3’s innings in 9-7 loss to the Angels on Saturday. And unfortuantely for Iwakuma, this is a position in which he’s struggled in throughout his career, going just 1-2 with an atrocious 6.26 ERA in his last four interleague starts. The home side counters with Dan Straily (2-1, 3.05 ERA) who has given up three runs or fewer in each of his six starts this year and who would strike out five over five scoreless frames in Sunday’s 9-4 win at Philadelphia. Straily has not done so well against the Mariners in the past, but that was then and this is now, we’re going to give the home side hurler the big nod in this matchup. Lop-sided numbers and trends have a way of naturally correcting themselves and we think Seattle’s hot road run will start to take a hit sooner than later. In a game which we believe will be decided late or in extra innings, we’re going to lay what we feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the REDS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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05-19-16 | Raptors +12.5 v. Cavs | Top | 89-108 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Toronto Raptors. We played Toronto in Game 1 and after getting out to a quick 7-0 start, the Raptors would struggle the rest of the way, eventually getting blown out 115-84. Toronto has lost Game 1 of all three rounds to this point and has subsequently bounced back to earn the Game 2 victory in each. Can the Raptors regroup and pull off the massive upset in Game 2? Unlikely, but we think tonight’s affair will be much more competitive and expect the visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what we feel to be an ample amount of points afforded to them. After back-to-back grueling seven game series victories, Toronto just couldn’t match pace with the rested Cavaliers in Game 1. The Raptors have responded well in this position, not just in the postseason, but all year long, going 13-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or more, while Cleveland is just 20-27 ATS this season after scoring 105 points or more. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have been consistently inconsistent in the playoffs, but look primed for a bounce back effort tonight after the poor showings in Game 1. Grab as many points as you can, play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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05-18-16 | Thunder +8.5 v. Warriors | Top | 91-118 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Oklahoma City Thunder. We played the UNDER in Game 1, but will focus on the side in Game 2. OKC shocked the world with a stunning outright Game 1 victory and we think the visitors have a legitimate shot at doing it again on Wednesday night. Another upset may be asking too much, but clearly this is a deep Thunder team which comes in with a ton of confidence and momentum. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are unstoppable right now and we have a hard time seeing the Warriors slowing them down in Game 2 either. Momentum is a factor that is almost impossible to properly quantify into a line and we think the oddsmakers are way off in setting this one. Note that the Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. The aura of invincibility surrounding the Warriors’ “home court advantage” is over and while we won’t in the end call for the outright upset, we do think OKC keeps this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play on the THUNDER. AAA Sports |
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05-18-16 | Astros +1.5 v. White Sox | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 5* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Houston Astros. The home side hands the ball to Mat Latos (5-0, 3.40 ERA), who got out to a remarkable start to the season, going 4-0 with a tiny 0.74 ERA through his first four starts. Latos though has been slipping of late, posting an atrocious 7.63 mark over his last three, most recently getting blasted for five runs off seven hits with five walks in 5 1/3’s innings in a 6-5 loss in Texas on Wednesday. The visitors hand the ball to Doug Fister (3-3, 4.22) who has gotten significantly better as the season has worn on, going 2-2 with a 3.09 ERA in five straight quality starts. Most recently Fister gave up two runs over seven innings in Wednesday’s 5-3 win over the Tribe. Also note that Houston’s bats have finally started to come alive, posting 6.8 runs per game over a 2-2 span. In a contest which we expect to be decided late or in extras, we’re going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on HOUSTON on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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05-17-16 | Raptors +10.5 v. Cavs | Top | 84-115 | Loss | -104 | 34 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Toronto Raptors. Yes, Toronto is coming off a couple of grueling seven game series victories and will be without its starting center for at least a couple more games. Yes, Cleveland is well rested after dispatching its first two opponents in four games each and sports a healthy Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving in its line-up this year. We think this is a great situational wager though as we’re expecting “rest” to lead to “rust” and for the battle tested visitors to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Cleveland has had nine whole days off between series, while Toronto comes in firing on all cylinders, DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have finally found their stroke and will be looking to build off that momentum. Jonas Valacuinas is a key part to Toronto’s offense, but Bizmak Biyombo has filled in admirably. Oklahoma City beat the Spurs in six games and not many gave it a chance in Game 1 of the West Conf Finals vs. the Warriors, but we all know how that one finished. We’re not going to call for an outright upset, but all signs do indeed point to the points as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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05-14-16 | Reds +1.5 v. Phillies | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a 6* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Cincinnati Reds. Aaron Nola is a classic “Jekyl and Hyde” hurler, dominating on the road, but getting killed in front of the home town crowd. He’s 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA with 34 K’s and five walks in five starts away from friendly confines, but has been blasted for a combined 11 runs and 13 hits over 12 innings while dropping both in Philadelphia. The visitors counter with Tim Adleman (1-0, 2.45), who after allowing two runs and three hits over six innings in his major league debut vs. the Pirates, would give up just one run and four hits over five innings in his team’s 5-1 home win over the Brewers on Friday. Both team’s are a couple of the worst in the entire league at the plate, so we’re going to call that area a “wash.” We feel that Adleman can battle Nola deep and in a contest which we expect to be decided late or in extra innings, we’re going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the REDS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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05-12-16 | Predators +1.5 v. Sharks | 0-5 | Loss | -190 | 34 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a 6* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Nashville Predators. This series has been a complete battle and we’re expecting Game 7 to come down to the wire. In a contest which we see being decided late or in extra periods, we’ll recommend laying the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. Through six games the home side has prevailed on every occasion. Note though that the Predators are 5-1 in one-goal games during the playoffs, which included a 2-1 decision on the road in Game 7 vs. Anaheim in the first round. Nashville only had one day off between its Round 1 and Round 2, while San Jose had five, but the Sharks are the older team, so we’re calling fatigue a “wash.” One area which the visitors have a clear advantage in is in net, as you can’t teach “experience,” we’ll take Pekka Rinne over the Sharks’ Martin Jones in the Game 7 scenario. Nashville is playing with “house money” at this point, as the franchise has never played past a Game 6 in the second round. The Sharks have had a lead late in all three games they’ve lost in this series and their inability to close out the Predators is about come back and bite them here. While we wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, we will in the end recommend playing the PUCK-LINE. AAA Sports |
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05-12-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +2.5 | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 33 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Oklahoma City Thunder. It’s time to face reality, despite having all around specialist Kawhi Leonard and new comer LaMarcus Aldridge, the Spurs are an old team which have run out of gas. San Antonio’s vaunted defense has no answer for the Thunders’ Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and OKC’s veterans and bench players are dominating their counterparts. Tony Parker and Tim Duncan having nothing left in the tank, while the Thunder are receiving big contributions from the likes of Serge Ibaka and Dion Waiters. Note that San Antonio is just 2-7 ATS this year when playing on one days rest, while Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in the same position. Why are the Spurs favored here? This is a horrible matchup as OKC’s athletes are running circles around the plodding and aging Spurs. Play on the THUNDER (and make sure to sprinkle a little on the money line as well!). AAA Sports |
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05-11-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | 91-99 | Win | 100 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Toronto Raptors. We think Toronto is going to play its best game of the series and look for it to jump out to an early lead, to keep the foot on the gas throughout and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. So far three games in this series have gone to OT. It’s obviously been evenly matched to this point, but as it wears on, we think that home floor will finally start to become a big advantage. Both teams are without their centers, which puts the focus on smaller lineups and guard play, which despite the 94-87 OT loss in Game 4, does in fact favor Toronto. Raptors’ guards DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have struggled mightily in the playoffs, but there’s no reason not to think that they won’t play significantly better in front of the home town crowd tonight: “They're our two All-Stars and sooner or later they're going to come through or be a part of what we're trying to do. It's not like we're just going to bench Kyle and DeMar, and go away from them. They're our guys. We believe in them," Raptors’ coach Dwane Casey said. Miami got a huge boost from aging super star Dwayne Wade last time out, but surely he’s running out of gas at this point. Note that Miami is already just 1-2 ATS this year when tied in a playoff series, while Toronto is 2-1 ATS in the same position. Everything does indeed point to the RAPTORS as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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05-11-16 | Tigers +1.5 v. Nationals | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Tigers. A couple of competent starters and ex-teammates square off on Wednesday night and we think the visitors will at the very least, keep this one close enough to cover with the spread (+1.5 runs, RUN-LINE). Jordan Zimmermann (5-1, 1.10 ERA) gets the call for the Tigers. Zimmermann was 70-50 with a 3.32 ERA over his first seven seasons with Washignton. Despite allowing just three runs over eight innings, he suffered his first loss to Texas on Friday. A date on the road is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track for Zimmermann though, he’s 3-0 with a tiny 0.47 ERA in three road starts this year and he’ll look to help his team win consecutive games for the first time since late April as the Tigers snapped a seven-game slide with a 5-4 victory on Tuesday. The Nationals counter with Max Scherzer (3-2, 4.60) who comes into this one with a career worst ERA, while also allowing nine home runs already. Most recently Scherzer was rocked for seven runs off seven hits and four homers in his team’s 8-6 road loss to the Cubs on Friday. We’ll admit, Washington’s lineup is the more potent, but clearly Zimmermann is throwing at a much different level than his counterpart and while we wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright win today, in a contest which we predict will be decided late or in extra innings, we’ll ultimately recommend laying what we feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the TIGERS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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05-03-16 | Phillies v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards snapped a four-game skid by exploding for a 10-3 win in yesterday’s series opener. St. Louis had only managed six runs in its previous four games, but used five home runs to end the Phillies’ six-game win streak. Gaining momentum is difficult, but once lost it’s even harder to find it again. This sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors, while conversely, St. Louis can smell the blood in the water and will be eager to build off yesterday’s performance and to further mentally distance itself from its losing stretch. Philadelphia sends Aaron Nola (1-2, 3.55 ERA) to the hill, he’s coming off a 3-0 win at Washington on Thursday. Nola has been great on the road this year, but horrible at home. We think these numbers quickly start correcting themselves, note that he owns a pedestrian 4.26 ERA in all night games this season. The home side counters with Michael Wacha (2-1, 3.07 ERA) who gave up four earned runs in 4 1/3’s innings in his 2016 debut, but who has given up just six runs over his last 25 innings of work spanning four starts (note that Wacha owns a 0.75 ERA at home this year). All signs point to a lop-sided beatdown, a perfect situation to pull the trigger on a run-line selection; play on the CARDS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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05-01-16 | Giants v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets. Is Noah Syndergaard an “elite” pitcher in this league? His numbers are certainly impressive. While he’s not on the same level as a Chris Sale or Clayton Kershaw because of his road record (although he’s already 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA away from friendly confines this year), we would classify Syndergaard as an elite level hurler when he’s throwing at home. Madison Bumgarner used to be an elite level starter, but he’s taken one small step back from the top guys in the majors. Syndergaard should be a bigger fav in this spot in our opinion, which makes laying the 1.5 runs for the big plus money return too good to turn down today. New York is rolling, it will be going for its ninth straight win and will also be out to send a message to San Francisco with a series sweep. The Mets have also now won six in a row at Citi Field. Bumgarner (2-2, 3.64 ERA) gave up two runs off six hits over 6 2/3’s innings in a 5-4 victory over the soft-hitting Padres on Monday. Bumgarner has great numbers vs. the Mets over his career, but he didn’t even face them last year. Syndergaard (2-0, 1.69) struggled in his only start vs. the Giants as a rookie in 2015, but that was then and this is now. Note that Syndergaard posted a 7-2, 2.46 ERA home record last season and was 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in all day games in 2015. Also note that he has not given up a home run in 26 2/3’s innings while stirking out 38. The combination of Syndergaard’s home dominance and the very real momentum that New York has at the plate right now make the METS on the RUN-LINE the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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04-29-16 | Raptors v. Pacers -2 | Top | 83-101 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers will look to push this series to a Game 7 and while they may ultimately fall in Toronto, we look for the home side to take advantage of familiar surroundings and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Pacers led by 15 late in the third quarter but somehow managed to lose 102-99 on Tuesday. It certainly wasn’t because of Paul George though, who had 39 points: “It's a desperation feeling," George said last night. "We'll give everything we have tomorrow night and make sure that that's enough." Toronto’s stars have struggled, Kyle Lowry is averaging 15.2 points and 31.4 percent shooting, while DeMar DeRozan, who had 34 points in Game 5, had averaged just 13.3 and 29.6 percent over the first four games of this series. The Raptors collapsed in a similar situation vs. the Nets two years ago, losing Game 6 on the road and then Game 7 at home. Note that Toronto is a horrible 4-11 ATS in its last 15 in the first round of the playoffs and just 15-18 ATS in its last 33 when playing with two days rest, while Indiana is 12-4 ATS this year when playing with two days of rest and 5-3 ATS in its last eight when trailing in a playoff series. We feel that home floor will prove to be pivotal tonight, play on the PACERS. AAA Sports |
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04-29-16 | Braves v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and this case we feel that Jon Lester (2-1, 1.98 ERA) is so significantly better than his counterpart, that laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price is the way to go. Lester most recently allowed one run off five hits, walking one and striking out four over seven innings in his team’s 8-1 win vs. the Reds on Friday. Lester would throw 100 pitches and 66 for strikes. After posting a 3.60 ERA at home last season, Lester is an even better 2.70 this season. The Braves counter with Aaron Blair (0-1, 5.10 ERA), who gave up three runs off six hits over 5.1 innings in his season debut last Sunday vs. the Mets. Blair looked decent in Triple A, but clearly this is a massive step up in competition and we think the rookie will have a predictable letdown here. Look for Lester and the Cubs to take advantage. AAA Sports |
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04-27-16 | Islanders +1.5 v. Lightning | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 32 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a 5* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the New York Islanders. The Isles come in off a six-game series opening victory over the Panthers and we think can catch the Lightning a bit flat-footed in Game 1 of the second round. Tampa has had a few extra days off after eliminating the Red Wings in five games. The Isles average 2.8 goals per game, while the Lightning average 2.7 goals. Tampa converts 15.8 pecent on the power play, while New York averages 18.3 percent. The Bolts allow 2.4 GPG, the Isles give up 2.6. The advantage in net goes to New York, Thomas Greiss is a big reason why it advanced, he’s given up just four goals over his last three games. Ben Bishop gets the call for the home side, he’s been sharp as well, giving up just four goals over his last three games too. Isles captain John Tavares has taken his game to another level though and we think he’ll once again play a huge role in this series once it is all said and done. In a contest which will most likely be decided late or in extra periods, we’re going to lay the larger price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance; play on the ISLANDERS on the PUCK-LINE. AAA Sports |
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04-25-16 | Padres +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on on the San Diego Padres. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case we think it’s a great opportunity to pull the trigger on a strategic run-line play. The Padres send Drew Pomeranz (2-1, 2.04 ERA) to the hill; the sixth year pro would strike out a career-high ten batters on Wednesday while allowing just an unearned run off four scattered hits and three walks in his team’s 8-2 win at Pittsburgh. Pomeranz now has 25 K’s over his first 17.2 innings of work. If his health holds up, clearly Pomeranz is on line for the best season of his career. On the other side of the coin is Madison Bumgarner (1-2, 3.91 ERA) who has struggled to open the season. Bumgarner is coming off his best outing so far this year, allowing two runs off five hits, to go along with eight K’s and one walk over seven innings vs. Arizona on Wednesday. Bumgarner’s inconsistent start warrants a closer monitoring and we’re unconvinced that he’s fully turned the corner yet. And that then leaves the door open for Pomeranz and the Friars today. Play on SAN DIEGO on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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04-23-16 | Cubs v. Reds +1.5 | Top | 5-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Cincinnati Reds. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case we feel that these two starters are a lot closer to each other than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to John Lackey (3-0, 3.66 ERA) who is coming off a gem, striking out 11, walking one and allowing only four hits over seven shutout innings in a victory over the Cardinals on Monday. It was obviously his best start of the season, but note that the veteran struggled in this spot last year, going just 4-6 with an elevated 3.82 ERA on the road last year. The home side counters with Dan Straily (0-0, 2.70 ERA), who earned a no-decision vs. the Rockies on Monday despite throwing five innings of one-run ball in his first start of the season. Straily would ultimately allow two hits while striking out four and walking two. The hard throwing right-hander has pitched well out of the bullpen, striking out eight over 8.1 innings of work thus far. We’re banking on Lackey to have a bit of a letdown here after his amazing outing, while we’re expecting Straily to build off his last start as he continues to fight for a permanent spot in the rotation. It’s a perfect set of situational circumstances and in a contest which we see being decided late, we’ll lay the short price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the REDS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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04-17-16 | Blazers +7 v. Clippers | Top | 95-115 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* Opening Round RED DRAGON is on the Portland Trailblazers. The Clippers may have taken four of the five regular season contests from the Blazers this year, but we think the visitors can at the very least keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Portland can score with anyone, it averaged 105.1 points on 45 percent shooting. It’s weakness is clearly on the defensive end where it allowed an average of 104.3. Damian Lillard leads the way for the Blazers with an average of 25.1 points and 6.8 assists, while CJ McCollum is averaging 20.8 points and 3.2 boards. LA averages 104.5 points on 46.5 percent shooting and gives up an average of 100.2 Chris Paul is the heart of the offense, he averages 19.5 points and ten assists, while Blake Griffin posted 21.4 points and 8.4 boards on average. Griffin though is still working his way back into game shape after missing most of the year with injury and suspension. And note that despite dropping four of five to the Clippers, the Blazers were very competitive, they enter this series having gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in Los Angeles. We wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset here, play on PORTLAND. AAA Sports |
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04-16-16 | Sharks v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the LA Kings. We stayed away of this series in Game 1, but think it’s a good time to pull the trigger on a big puck-line play. The Sharks managed to gut out the Game 1 victory, but we definitely look for the talented home side to do whatever it takes to win Game 2. San Jose has already accomplished what it wanted, getting a split in the opening two games means that it’s already rested the home ice advantage away from the Kings. We think LA wins this game, but not only wins, we look for it to win big, pulling away for at least a two goal victory. No need to overanalyze this one, all signs point to a lop-sided destruction as we look for the KINGS to risk life and limb. AAA Sports |
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04-16-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -6 | Top | 100-90 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* Opening Round SIDE OF THE YEAR on the Toronto Raptors. Toronto’s best season in franchise history isn’t going to mean much if it doesn’t contend for the Eastern Conference crown. We’re expecting the home side to make the most of familiar surroundings and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. It’s been back-to-back first round disappointment’s for Toronto, so we look for the home side to make Game 1 a statement. The Raptors were injured for most of the season last year, but are at 100% health heading into this year’s playoffs. Note that Toronto hasn’t lost more than two straight since mid-November: “I think we're in a better mental place," Raptors’ coach Dwane Casey assessed. "The confidence level is higher. Guys have accepted their roles much more. That's a huge difference. We're in a much better place defensively." This isn’t a matchup that favors the Pacers, evident by the fact that they dropped three of four in the season series. It’s also interesting to note that the Raptors shot an average of 35.3 free throws per game in four meetings with Indiana. We think there are enough situational factors working in favor of TORONTO to pull the trigger on a play of this magnitude. AAA Sports |
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04-14-16 | White Sox v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Minnesota Twins. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, we think Ervin Santana is primed to go deep into this one, while we feel his counterpart Mat Latos is primed for a letdown. Both starters are coming off very good opening day outings, but the fact that Santana excelled is not suprising, but that Latos did, was definitely a shock. Latos would throw six scoreless frames and struck out two while allowing only a single hit vs. the A’s on Thursday. It was his first win since last July. Latos had a horrible spring, giving up 15 earned runs in 13 Cactus League innings. And note that Latos was particularly terrible in this spot last year, going just 1-4 with a pedestrian 4.98 ERA in all day games. Santana was also impressive in his first start, though he didn’t factor into the decision, he’d give up six hits, two earned runs and two walks over six innigns in his team’s 4-3 loss to Kansas City on Friday. The veteran would strike out seven, which doesn’t immediately sound super impressive, until you factor in that it was against the Royals, one of the hardest teams in the majors to rack up any strike outs against. Santana would close 2015 on well after missing most of the campaign because of suspension. Note that Santana would post a respectable 3.43 ERA in all day games last year. We think the talent disrcepany on the mound today justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the possibility of the big payout. Play on MINNESOTA on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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04-11-16 | Reds v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 111 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case we definitely feel that the talent discrepancy on the mound today absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the small return. The Reds send Brandon Finnegan to the mound, he allowed seven runs off six hits and four walks over 3.1 innings to the White Sox on Saturday. Finnegan had a horrible spring, posting a 10.29 ERA and 2.07 WHIP, but somehow managed to earn a spot in the Reds’ depleted rotation. The home side counters with Jon Lester (1-0, 1.29 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits over seven innings while strikingout four and walking no one in a win over the Angels on Tuesday. The veteran would induce 10 ground balls in his opening game, after posting his best ground ball rate in three years with the Cubs last season. Lay the 1.5 runs on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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04-10-16 | Warriors +5 v. Spurs | Top | 92-86 | Win | 100 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Golden State Warriors. Records were made to be broken. The 1995 Chicago Bulls 72 game win streak remains in tact, but the Warriors can match that with a victory tonight. To do that though, they’ll have to battle history, as they’ve lost 32 straight regular season games in San Antonio, which is trying to set some records of its own, including becoming the only team in league history to remain undefeated on its home floor for an entire regular season. Golden State played and won 100-99 in Memphis last night, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson got caught looking ahead to this one as the two normally sharp outside shooters went a combined 5 of 24 from behind the arc. Suffice it to say, we don’t expect that type of shooting performance to happen two times in a row and in a contest of this magnitude. The Spurs come in off a loss to the Nuggets, but the entire starting line-up was given the night off, so while it’s true that San Antonio comes into this one well rested, we’ll point out that San Antonio has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors this season, going 18-20 ATS vs. teams with winning records and only 11-20 ATS in its last 31 vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest. Conversely, this is a spot in which the Warriors have dominated in for bettors all year, going 10-6 ATS in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and 6-2 ATS after playing three consecutive road games. Grab as many points as you can as we look for this one to come down to the wire. Play on GOLDEN STATE. AAA Sports |
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04-08-16 | Wizards v. Pistons -7 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Detroit Pistons. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Washington is just 7-12 ATS this year after a win by ten points or more and just 25-27 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest, while Detroit is 10-7 ATS this season off an upset win as an underdog and 15-8 ATS in its last 23 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. The bottom line: Home court advantage can’t be overlooked in this situation, all signs do indeed point to the PISTONS as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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04-07-16 | Raptors v. Hawks -6 | Top | 87-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Atlanta Hawks. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Toronto is just just 15-16 ATS in its last 31 vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest, while Atlanta is 17-10 ATS following a loss by ten points or more. The bottom line: Toronto is stuck in the No. 2 spot in the East, while Atlanta is still fighting for playoff position. Atlanta also plays with double revenge. Play on the HAWKS. AAA Sports |
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04-07-16 | Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Washington Nationals. It’s the home opener for the Nationals and we think they’ll put on a show for the crowd today. This is the first game of seven straight at home for the Nationals, who plays three against the Fish, before four against the Braves. The Nats are coming off a pair of late-inning wins in Atlanta, including yeserday’s 3-1 victory. The Marlins come to town after losing both opening games at home to Detroit. Miami slugger Giancarlo Stanton is 2 for 8 with a home run and struck out with the bases loaded to end yesterday’s 7-3 setback (we had the Tigers in that one). Note that the Marlins would drop seven of ten in the nation’s capital a year ago. Keep your eyes on Washington slugger Bryce Harper, who hit seven dingers and posted a 1.161 OPS vs. Miami last season. The visitors send out Adam Conley to the hill, who was decent last year and in spring training this season, going 4-1 with a 3.76 ERA in 2015, before posting a 1.86 ERA in three spring starts, but who was shelled for three runs in five innings at Nationals Park on August 28th. The home side counters with Tanner Roark, who had an up and down season in 2015 and who didn’t have his best stuff vs. the Marlins either, but who has also looked extremely sharp in spring training, posting a tiny 2.00 ERA with 17K’s to three walks over 18 innings of work. We’re going to call the pitchers a “wash,” but give the Nationals’ line-up the big nod in this matchup, indeed making WASHINGTON on the RUN-LINE the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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04-05-16 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 136 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We had a play on the Rockies as an underdog as we anticipated Zack Greinke to have a letdown on Opening Night for his new team. We think Shelby Miller and the Diamondbacks bounce back after falling 10-5 on Monday. The Rockies dropped eight of ten in Arizona in 2015, but it’s interesting to note that Arizona lost its third straight opener. Miller received the worst run support in the majors playing with the Braves last year, but would go on to post a 3.02 ERA and 21 quality starts while earning his first All-Star appearance. The visitors counter with Chad Bettis, who was 8-6 with a 4.23 ERA in 20 starts last year. We’re giving Miller the big nod in this matchup. The talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the healthy plus money return. Play on ARIZONA on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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04-03-16 | Celtics v. Lakers +9.5 | 107-100 | Win | 100 | 28 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* COAST-TO-COAST EXPRESS on the LA Lakers. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. For this selection, we’re keeping it simple. This without a doubt sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the visitors, who just finished ending Golden State’s 54 game regular season home win streak with a 109-106 stunner on Friday night. And with two whole days off before facing the 28-47 Pelicans at home, it’s not too hard to imagine the Celtics “looking past” LA today as well. Note that five of the first seven teams to beat Golden State would then go on to lose their next game. LA has had a few days off after upsetting the Heat and the Nick Young and Jordan D’Angelo fiasco has finally started to die down. The Lakers would beat the Celtics 112-104 on December 30 and while we won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset tonight, we do think this one sets up beautfilly for the home side. Grab as many points as you can. AAA Sports |
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04-03-16 | Mets v. Royals +1.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 7* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Kansas City Royals. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: AAA Sports will have their full analysis for this selection posted shortly. No later than 6 hours before game time. |
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04-03-16 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -203 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 5* OPENING DAY ROUT on the St. Louis Cardinals on the RUN LINE. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and as good as Liriano looked last year, Wainwright is once again primed for a Cy Young season and it all gets started on Sunday afternoon. The Cards won 100 games last year but were upset by the Cubs in the NLDS. St. Louis lost slugger Jason Heyward, but Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty are expected to fill void. And with Matt Holliday and Matt Carpenter, along with the return of both Yadier Molina and Jhonny Peralta a little later in the month, the Cards once again sport a potent line-up. The Pirates also have a ton of talent obviously, with the likes of Andrew McCutchen and Josh Harrison who will be expected to shoulder the load after the team lost slugger Pedro Alvarez in the offseason. Francisco Liriano will get the opening day start with ace Gerrit Cole sidelined for a few more weeks. Liriano struggled against the Cards last year and in no way do we think he has the upper-hand in today’s matchup. In fact, we agree with the bookmakers here completely we’re going to call the starting pitchers a “wash.” Howeer, we’re going to give the nod to the Cards’ line-up and with an extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket, it makes this a price we can live with paying. Play on the CARDS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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04-02-16 | Villanova v. Oklahoma +2.5 | Top | 95-51 | Loss | -110 | 141 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma. Oklahoma is a deep team, but it also sports arguably the best player in the nation in Buddy Hield. Villanova held Hield to just 18 points in the game these two played earlier in the season, but the Sooners still won in a blowout. Hield was 8 of 13 from behind the arc in Oklahoma’s 80-68 win over Oregon, the Sooners shot 12 of 24 from 3- point land overall vs. the Ducks. What often goes overlooked is the Sooners’ great defensive play, which would hold Oregon to just 38.9 percent shooting and 4 of 21 from 3-point land. Oklahoma holds teams to 40.5 percent overall shooting and just 33.1 percent from beyond the arc. Note that Hield is averaging 29.3 points per game shooting almost 57 percent from the field. The Sooners held Kris Jenkins, Josh Hart and Jalen Brunson to 1 of 16 from the 3-point range in the regular season beatdown. Villanova doesn’t have a bonafide super star like Hield, but instead gets the job done by committee. The Wildcats looked good defensively against KU, forcing 16 turnovers, but Villanova was just 4 of 18 from 3-point land. And that doesn’t bode well against the Sooners, who are among the best in defending the perimeter. Just like in last night’s CBI Game 3 finale, all signs point to another last-second nail-biting decision. While we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on OKLAHOMA. AAA Sports |
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04-01-16 | Morehead State +4 v. Nevada | Top | 82-85 | Win | 100 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Morehead State. Morehead State took Game 1 86-83, while Nevada bounced back at home 77-68 in Game 2. Both games have been highly competitive and each has been decided in the waning moments. We’re expecting another very tightly contested affair, one where whoever has the ball in their hands last will likely be the victor. The Wolfpack may have the higher scoring offense on average, but the Eagles are better defensively. Looking at these two teams side by side, there truly is little difference. This is a great situational play in our opinion, in what will prove to be another nail-biter, grab as many points as you can with MOREHEAD STATE. AAA Sports |
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03-30-16 | Heat v. Lakers +10 | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 31 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the LA Lakers. The Heat sit 6.5 games ahead of ninth-place Chicago with nine left in the regular season. Miami comes to town off a 110-99 win over Brooklyn on Monday, the team’s 11th victory out of it last 15. This is the final match-up between Dwayne Wade and Kobe Bryant. The Lakers will be out to avenge seven-straight losses in the series, including a 101-88 setback on November 10th and to also atone for a listless 123-75 loss at Utah on Monday, matching the team’s worst setback in franchise history and most lopsided of Bryant’s career. The Lakers have a lot to play for now too, they’re in danger of finishing with the fewest wins in franchise history, needing to win five of their final eight games to surpass the 19 wins from the 1957-58 team. Note that Miami is just 10-11 ATS this year after a win by ten points or more and only 10-11 ATS after scoring 105 points or more, while LA is 6-3 ATS this year after scoring 85 points or less and 16-12 ATS in all non-conference games. A great situational play, grab as many points as you can with the LAKERS. AAA Sports |
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03-30-16 | Warriors v. Jazz +5.5 | Top | 103-96 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Utah Jazz. Utah is coming together at the right time. It’s been very good defensively all season long, but it’s latest offensive performance has it thinking it could steal this game vs. the defending champions outright. The Jazz would make a franchise-best 17 3-pointers in a 123-75 destruction of the Lakers on Monday. Keep your eyes on Rodney Hood, who was eight of nine from behind the arc. The Jazz have averaged 10.7 3-pointers and have shot 40.4 precent from behind the arc during an 8-2 stretch which has earned it seventh in the Western Conference. Utah also plays with revenge here after dropping all three previous meetings with the Warriors this season. Golden State continues to roll, it’s coming off a 102-94 SU win and ATS loss vs. the Wizards just last night. Golden State’s energy and focus is surely starting to waiver at this point of the season and the weight of expectations continues to grow as the playoffs approach. It’s a perfect spot for the Jazz to take advantage of. All six of the Warriors’ losses this year have come in similar types of situations. And with five of its final eight games at home, it’s not too hard to imagine Golden State in some small way, looking ahead to that favorable season-ending schedule. Also note that Utah has been pretty effective in slowing down Steph Curry, holding him to an 18.0 scoring average and 39.1 field goal percentage for the series, his lowst mark vs. any team from the West. The Jazz have in fact been “lights-out” with their defensive play of late, giving up 88.2 points over their ten-game run, while just limiting the Lakers to just 30.6 percent shooting last time out. We think that UTAH comes to play tonight, grab as many points as you can. AAA Sports |
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03-28-16 | Hawks v. Bulls +4 | Top | 102-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the Chicago Bulls. These two teams are moving in opposite directions, but as we always say: “desperation breeds motivation!” We think the value has swung back onto the hungry Bulls in this one. Chicago will be looking to avoid a season sweep at the hands of Atlanta, while also delaying the Hawks playoff spot, who would clinch one with a victory tonight. The Bulls are currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, sitting in ninth position: “I don't think anybody's quit," Chicago’s star guard Jimmy Butler said last night. "We've just hit adversity at the wrong time and we've got to fix it. It better carry over from in this locker room out to the court. That's the only way to get this thing fixed." And with seven of their next eight game vs. likely playoff bound clubs, tonight’s contest takes on added importance for the home side. For all intents and purposes, this has become a “do-or-die” game for the Bulls tonight. Note that Atlanta is just 3-4 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog, while Chicago is 5-3 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses. Play on the BULLS. AAA Sports |
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03-27-16 | Nuggets v. Clippers -8 | Top | 90-105 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the LA Clippers. Denver has won three of four, while LA has dropped three of four. The Nuggets come in off a 116-105 win over the Lakers on Friday in which their bench scored a road season-high 71 points on 57.4 percent shooting. Suffice it to say, we’re not expecting lightning to strike twice for Denver tonight. Although the teams have split a pair of games this season, LA does play with revenge after a listless 87-81 setback last time out (note that it was the Nuggets first win in the last five in the series). LA does come in with a bit of momentum as well after it broke its three-game slide with a hard-fought 96-94 home win over Portland on Thursday. LA will also be eager to get back on track in front of the home town crowd, the team was 30-11 in friendly confines last year, but is 23-12 so far this season: "I think we've had a nice year on the road," coach Doc Rivers said, "but I don't think we've had a nice year at home.” Note that Denver is just 16-17 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more, while LA is 8-3 ATS in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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03-26-16 | Oilers v. Kings -1.5 | 4-6 | Win | 130 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the LA Kings. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Edmonton is just 22-27 (-1.7 units) this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while LA is 10-5 (+1.4 units) this year after allowing four goals or more and a pefect 2-0 (+2.1 units) after three or more consecutive SU losses. The bottom line: LA has been scuffling and with just a handful of games remaning, this has essentially become a “do-or-die” game for the KINGS. AAA Sports |
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03-26-16 | Villanova +2.5 v. Kansas | Top | 64-59 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* ELITE 8 GAME OF THE YEAR on Villanova. Both teams have steamrolled their ways into the Elite 8, but Villanova has looked like the more complete units on both ends of the floor and while we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the Wildcats to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Villanova ended up trouncing Miami 92-69 in the Sweet 16, while Kansas pulled away for a 77-63 victory over Maryland. The Wildcats average a few less points than the Jayhawks on the year (Villanova posts 77.9 PPG, while Kansas comes in a 82 PPG). Defensively though, Villanova has the upper hand, allowing just 63.8 PPG, ranking it 15th in the nation, compared to Kansas’ 67.9 points per game allowed, ranked 75th in the country. The Wildcats have turned up offensive pressure of late though, they’ve averaged 86 points or more in their three games in the NCAA Tourney and combined with their clearly superior defensive unit, all signs do indeed point to VILLANOVA as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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03-26-16 | Cavs -7 v. Knicks | Top | 107-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the Cleveland Cavaliers. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last six after failing to cover the spread in five of its last six games, including in two straight, while New York is just 5-7 ATS this season after a win by ten points or more and only 8-9 ATS in its last 17 vs. teams with winning records. The bottom line: This line has dropped since we took it (we have -8.5), but regardless, we still love this selection and are predicting a complete blowout. Cleveland comes in off a few shaky efforts, but gets back into the winners circle with a decisive effort over the lowly Knicks. Play on the CAVALIERS. AAA Sports |
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03-25-16 | Indiana +6 v. North Carolina | Top | 86-101 | Loss | -105 | 123 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Indiana. Indiana is no joke, after destroying Chattanooga 99-74 in the opening round, it would go on to beat Kentucky 73-67 in the second. The Hoosiers have answered the call all year, after winning the Big 10 regular season title, but coming up short in the conference tournament, the team has responded big time and we fully expect this momentum to get carried over here. The Hoosiers are tough and they’re well balanced and are able to keep pace on both ends of the floor with anyone in the country. We think UNC is going to be in for a shock today in Indiana’s ability to take full control of a game and to dictate the pace at both ends of the court. UNC smashed FGCU and then hammered Providence 85-66 in the second round. UNC’s hopes rest on the shoulders of arguably the countries best frontcourt in Brice Johnson and Justin Jackson. The Tar Heels like to push the pace of the game, but they are not going to be able to outrun the talented Hoosiers today and while we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for INDIANA to at the very least take this one down to the wire and to sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. AAA Sports |
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03-24-16 | Duke +3 v. Oregon | Top | 68-82 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Duke. The Blue Devils come into this one battle tested and ready to shock the No. 1 seeded Ducks. While we obviously wouldn’t be surprised by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for Duke to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Duke beat No. 13 UNC-Wilmington 93-85 and the 12-seed Yale Bulldogs 71-64. Grayson Allen leads a team which averages 81.5 PPG on 46.1 percent shooting. The Blue Deivls are pretty average defensively though, allowing 72.2 PPG. The Ducks seem vulnerable in this spot and ripe for the picking. Oregon rolled over Holy Cross, 91-52 in its opener, but then was in a fight for its life in an eventual 69-64 win over St. Joe’s on Sunday. The Ducks average 78.9 PPG and allow 68.5. Duke averages nearly 3-points per game more and has looked much better defensively since the start of this Tournament. It’s hard to imagine Oregon matching pace down the stretch the way it played against St. Joseph’s. As we stated off the top, we wouldn’t be shocked by an upset here, but we’re going to grab the points. Play on DUKE. AAA Sports |
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03-24-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Villanova -4.5 | Top | 69-92 | Win | 100 | 96 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* SWEET 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Villanova. The 27-7 Miami Hurricanes get ready to battle with 31-5 Villanova. The Wildcats defeated UNC Asheville by a score of 86-56 in their opener, followed by an 87-68 victory over Iowa, while Miami beat Buffalo by a score of 79-72 and Wichita State by a score of 65-57. Villanova looked dominant in both games, Josh Hart led the way in the win over the Hawkeyes with 19 points and four boards. Villanova finished the regular seaosn by winning five of its last six games, with the only setback coming to Seton Hall in the Big East Conference Championship. The Wildcats average 77 points per game while giving up just 63.7. Miami’s last loss was to Virginia in the ACC Tournament. The Hurricanes average 75.6 points and give up 66.8 per. Villanova averages more PPG and gives up less. The Wildcats also enjoy a rebounding advantage. Villanova has excelled in its first two games, while Miami gave up a monster lead in its win over the Shockers, holding on for dear life at the end. When taking into account all of the above factors, all signs do indeed point to the WILDCATS as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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03-23-16 | Grand Canyon +3.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 58-60 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* CIT QUARTERFINAL SIDE OF THE YEAR on Grand Canyon. The 27-6 Grand Canyon Antelopes meet with the 20-11 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers in the CIT Quarterfinal on Wednesday and while we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for these two evenly matched teams to take this one right down to the wire. The Antelopes come into this one off a 78-74 win over South Carolina State and a 65-54 victory over Jackson State. Grand Canyon comes in with momentum, it ended the regular season by winning six of its last eight games and finished tied for second in the WAC standings, but was unable to play in the conference tournament due to it transition to Division 1 status. The Antelopes can put the rock in the hole with the best of them, averaging 76.8 PPG, while giving up just 68.6. The Chanticleers enter the Quarterfinal round off of a 65-57 win over Mercer and a 71-62 victory over New Hampshire. Coastal Carolina averages 74.7 points while giving up only 67.3 per contest. We simply feel that Grand Canyon has traveled a much harder road to this point and is the more tested and that in the end this experience will nullify any advantage that the Chanticleers may have had on their own floor. Play on the ANTELOPES. AAA Sports |
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03-22-16 | Creighton v. BYU -4.5 | Top | 82-88 | Win | 100 | 31 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on BYU. Creighton beat Alabama 72-54 in the first round and Wagner 87-54 in the second, while BYU beat UAB 97-79 in the first round, before then outlasting Virginia Tech in a slim victory in the second. So far it’s been a cake-walk for the Blue Jays, but clearly the talent level across the board goes up significantly now in facing the Cougars. Creighton’s defensive numbers have been impressive through the first two rounds, allowing only 54 points in both games, but don’t read too much into that. BYU is eighth in the country in scoring offense at 83.7 PPG, shooting 46.4 percent as a team and is in an entirely different league than either Alabama or Wagner. The Blue Jays also average quite a bit, at 79.6 PPG, ranking them 32nd in the country. We’re going with battle tested BYU in this one though, which has faced tougher teams than Creighton to get to this point. The Cougars average a few more points and give up the same amount, but also enjoy a significant edge on the glass. That’s good enough for us, play on BYU. AAA Sports |
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03-20-16 | St. Joe's v. Oregon -6.5 | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -106 | 28 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Oregon. St. Joes is coming off a thrilling 78-76 win over Cincinnati on Friday and has been a nice story to this point, but we think the Hawks run comes to an end tonight vs. No. 1 seeded Oregon. The Ducks come into the round of 32 after destroying Holy Cross 91-52. The Hawks average 77.3 PPG and give up 69.8. Oregon averages 78.8 PPG game and give up just 69.1. Also note that Oregon is 4th in the country in blocks with 5.91 per contest. The key factor for us though is that the Ducks’ starters were all rested in their opening destruction of Holy Cross, while St. Joe’s had to battle tooth and nail down to the final second for its victory. Oregon has the superior depth and averages more points. A bunch of different factors do indeed point to the DUCKS as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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03-20-16 | Celtics -10.5 v. 76ers | 120-105 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show | |
This is an 8* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Boston Celtics. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Boston is 27-22 ATS this season vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest and already 4-2 ATS after playing to three or more consecutive SU losses, while Philadelphia is 0-9 ATS this year as a home dog in the 9.5 to 12 points range, just 4-9 ATS vs. division opponents and only 18-24 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses. The bottom line: Here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against, we look for BOSTON to take advantage of this favorable spot and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. AAA Sports |
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03-20-16 | VCU v. Oklahoma -6.5 | 81-85 | Loss | -114 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on Oklahoma. VCU advanced to the round of 32 by taking out Oregon State by eight points, while Oklahoma earned a 14 point victory over Cal State Bakersfield. VCU for the most part was solid all season, it would lose to St. Joe’s by 13 points in the A-10 Title game. The Rams looked solid in their 75-67 win over the Beavers. Oklahoma came into the NCAA tourney with something to prove, it won three of its last four, losing 69-67 to WVU in the Big 12 semifinals when Buddy Hield’s shot from half court at the buzzer was waived off by the refs. Hield had 27 points in the win over the Roadrunners and the team shot 50 percent overall, including 11 of 20 from beyond the arc. To keep this short and sweet, we think that VCU has been a great story to this point and the win over the Pac-12 team in the opening round was impressive, but Hield and the Sooners are on a completely different level. We expect the “better” team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on OKLAHOMA. AAA Sports |
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