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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
Oregon @ Utah 7:30 PM ET Game# 371-372 Play On: Utah -3.0 (10*) The #3 Oregon Ducks find themselves as an underdog against #24 Utah and I believe for good reason. After starting 1-2, Utah has won 6 of its last 7. The Utes are also a perfect 4-0 at home where they’ve outscored their opponents by 17.0 points per game. As a matter of fact, they’re 17-1 in their last 18 played in Salt Lake City. The Utes offense has been red-hot while scoring 34 points or more in each of their last 6 games. During that stretch, the Utes have only committed 3 turnovers and gained 455 yards or more in each of those contests. The Oregon offense took a huge hit when star running back C.J. Verdell went down for the season. That will catch up to them in this spot while playing in a hostile environment. Bet Utah minus the points. |
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11-20-21 | Baylor v. Kansas State | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
Baylor @ Kansas State 5:30 PM ET Game# 413-414 Play On: Kansas State (5*) Baylor is coming off a game in which they knocked off undefeated Oklahoma by a score of 17-7. The Bears were sky high in that contest in front of a raucous home crowd. There’s no way humanly possible that the #11 ranked Bears will be able to match that physical or mental intensity when going on the road versus an unranked opponent. However, it must be note, Kansas State is 7-3 and winners of 4 straight game. Bet on Kansas State. |
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11-20-21 | Nebraska +10 v. Wisconsin | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
Nebraska @ Wisconsin 3:30 PM ET Game# 363-364 Play On: Nebraska +10.0 (5*) This is another game where the line doesn’t make sense, and yes, I’m once again taking a contrarian approach. Since starting the season 1-3, Wisconsin has gone a red-hot 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. The latest college football poll has them ranked at #15. Yet, they find themselves as a reasonably sized favorite when considering their opponent is 3-7 and losers of 4 in a row. Nonetheless, you can make a strong case that Nebraska is the best team in the country with a losing record. For example, during their present 4-game losing streak they faced #6 Michigan (9-1), #4 Ohio State (9-1), Purdue (6-4) and Minnesota (6-4). Even with that tough stretch of games versus quality opponents they were only outscored by 6.0 points per contest. As a matter of fact, all 7 of the Cornhuskers losses were 1 possession games. Additionally, head coach Scott Frost received a vote of confidence to return next year. That should also relieve stress for the coaching staff and players alike. Bet Nebraska plus the points. |
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11-20-21 | SMU v. Cincinnati -10 | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
SMU @ Cincinnati 3:30 PM ET Game# 327-328 Play On: Cincinnati -10.0 (5*) Despite being 10-0 and posting a quality win at #7 Notre Dame, if the season were to end today, Cincinnati would be on the outside looking in. The biggest criticism of the Bearcats has been their inability to dominate seemingly weaker teams in their own conference. Well, they’ll have a chance to impress the college football committee on Saturday against an 8-2 SMU team. I believe they’ll be more than up to the task. The Bearcats are 5-0 at home while outscoring opponents by 32.4 points and outgaining them by 168.8 yards per contest. The major weakness for SMU is their defense and that’s especially been the case when facing better than average opponents. The Bearcats unequivocally qualify in that regard. Bet Cincinnati minus the points. |
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11-20-21 | Michigan State v. Ohio State -18 | 7-56 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
Michigan State @ Ohio State 12:00 PM ET Game# 339-340 Play On: Ohio State -18.0 (5*) We have the #4 team in the country as nearly a 3-touchdown favorite against #7 Michigan State. I am sure this substantial number will produce a lot more tickets and money bet on the underdog. But I’m here to tell you they are wrong. This isn’t a recoding but think like an oddsmaker if you want to be a successful sports bettor. Why is Ohio State such a large favorite against an opponent who is just 3 spots below them in the latest college football playoff rankings? Simply put, because those sharp and astute professionals see Michigan State the same way I do, and that’s an absolute fraud. Regardless of their superb 9-1 record, Michigan State is terrible defensively, and they will be facing a red-hot Ohio State offense that’s #1 nationally in scoring and yards gained. Conversely, Michigan State is #111 in total defense having given up 444.0 yards per game this season. Don’t get suckered into taking the sizable underdog. Lay the points with Ohio State. |
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11-20-21 | Wake Forest v. Clemson -4 | 27-48 | Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show | |
Wake Forest @ Clemson 12:00 PM ET Game# 361-362 Play On: Clemson -4.0 (5*) This is another one of those college football betting situations that I love taking a contrarian approach. Wake Forest is 9-1 and ranked #10 in the latest college football poll yet they fin themselves as more than a field goal underdog against an unranked team. The biggest enigma for Wake Forest is their defense. The Demon Deacons has allowed 34 or more points and 500 yards or greater in 5 of its last 6 games. Clemson is enduring an uncharacteristic season in which they never seriously threatened being a national title contender. However, they have won 3 in a row to improve their season record to 7-3. The Tigers defense has been stellar all season. The Tigers are also a perfect 5-0 at home this season and allowed a mere 10.2 points and 248.2 yards per game. They will be up to the task against Wake’s explosive offense. The Tigers offense has struggle for most of this season. On a positive note, Clemson has scored 34.7 points per contest during their current win streak. Bet Clemson minus the points. |
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11-20-21 | Iowa State +3.5 v. Oklahoma | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
Iowa State @ Oklahoma 12:00 PM ET Game# 401-402 Play On: Iowa State +3.5 (5*) Oklahoma is coming off their first loss of the season last week at Baylor. The Sooners have a huge in-state rivalry game up next versus 9-1 Oklahoma State. This sets up as a flat spot for Oklahoma. Iowa State is coming off a 41-38 upset loss to Texas Tech last week. That dropped their season record to 6-4. The Cyclones have gone 3-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss and won by a massive margin of 43.3 points per game. Iowa State will also be out to revenge their 27-21 loss to Oklahoma in last season’s Big 12 Championship game. Bet Iowa State plus the points. |
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11-19-21 | Wichita State v. Arizona -9 | 78-82 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Arizona vs. Wichita State 10:00 PM ET Game# 887-888 Play On: Arizona -9.0 (5*) Although these teams enter this Roman main Event Tournament in Las Vegas with identical 3-0 records, my personal eye test tells me that Arizona is much the better side in this matchup. Wichita State has failed to cover in 2 of their first 3. They escaped with narrow wins at home versus Jacksonville State by 3 and South Alabama by 6. The Shockers have struggled so offensively while averaging just 63.0 points scored per game and shot a poor 39.1% while doing so. Arizona is 3-0 SU&ATS thus far with an average victory margin of 45.0 points per game. They held those 3 opponent to just 49.0 points scored per game and an extremely impressive 27.6% shooting. Furthermore, the Wildcats averaged 94.0 points scored per game while shooting 50.3%, and 39.5% from beyond the 3-point line. Even with that great shooting, Arizona still managed to average an impressive 13 offensive rebounds per contest. Bet Arizona minus the points. |
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11-19-21 | Pacers +1.5 v. Hornets | 118-121 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
Indiana @ Charlotte 7:10 PM ET Game# 513-514 Play On: Indiana +1.5 (5*) This line makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. We have an Indiana team that’s just 2-8 on the road this season and is coming off back-to-back road losses in which they scored 89 and 84 points. The Pacers will be facing a Charlotte team which has gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 while holding those opponents to a mere 98.3 points per game. Yet, the oddsmakers put forth a point-spread that indicates they see this as an evenly matched game. This is where I revert to my contrarian approach. The sportsbooks are begging you take Charlotte, so I’m betting on Indiana. |
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11-19-21 | Ohio +12 v. Kentucky | Top | 59-77 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
Ohio @ Kentucky 7:00 PM ET Game# 827-838 Play On: Ohio +12.0 (10*) Kentucky is unequivocally the more talented in athletic team in this matchup. However, Ohio is an experienced and battle tested team. The Bobcats are the defending MAC Tournament champions and upset Virginia in the 1st Round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament as a #13 seed. Ohio has begun this season by going 3-0 SU&ATS. The Bobcats are averaging 12 three-point makes per game while converting on a solid 38.3% of those long-distance attempts. Look for that ability to knock down 3-point shots as a key contributing factor to us covering this game. Â Bet Ohio plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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11-18-21 | Rutgers v. DePaul +3.5 | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Rutgers @ DePaul 8:30 PM ET Game# 731-732 Play On: DePaul +3.5 (5*) Rutgers is 3-0 but failed to cover in any of those contests versus Merrimack, NJIT, and Lehigh. Not exactly the blue bloods of college basketball. Conversely has started the season 2-0 SU&ATS with win over Coppin State and Central Michigan. However, they won those contests by an average of 29.0 points per game and they scored 98.0 points per contest. Additionally, DePaul dominated the boards in those 2 wins at +24.0 per game. Bet DePaul plus the points. |
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11-18-21 | Northern Illinois +14.5 v. Missouri | 37-54 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Northern Illinois @ Missouri 8:00 PM ET Game# 725-726 Play On: Northern Illinois +14.5 (5*) Missouri is coming off an 80-66 home loss to UMKC in a game they closed as an 11.0-point favorite. Northern Illinois opened the season with a shocking 71-64 win at Washington and as a 20.0-point underdog. They were handed a dose of reality in their last game at Indiana which resulted in an 80-46 loss. Despite that defeat, Northern Illinois made an impressive 41.2% of their 3-point shot attempts and averaged 26 free throw attempts per game. The great equalizers for college basketball underdogs is their ability to shoot well from 3-point lead and getting to the free throw line in abundance. Bet Northern Illinois plus the points. |
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11-18-21 | Marquette v. Ole Miss -3 | 78-72 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Ole Miss vs. Marquette 7:00 PM ET Game# 759-760 Play On: Ole Miss -3.0 (5*) This game is part of the Charleston Classic and more importantly on a neutral floor. Ole Miss has opened the season with home wins over Charleston Southern 93-61 and New Orleans 82-61. On the other hand, Marquette’s last 2 games resulted in home wins over Illinois 67-66 and New Hampshire 75-70. Ole Miss is the more experienced and better team in this matchup. Any favorite coming off 2 home win that each came by 10 points or more, versus an opponent coming off 2 home wins by 5 points or fewer, resulted in those favorites going 44-12 ATS (78.6%) since 1997. Bet Ole Miss minus the points. |
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11-18-21 | Oklahoma v. East Carolina OVER 137.5 | Top | 79-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
Oklahoma vs. East Carolina 7:00 PM ET Game# 751-752 Play On: Over 137.5 (10*) Both teams in this matchup can score with regularity and like to play at an up-tempo pace. During their first 2 contests, Oklahoma averaged 86.5 points scored per game, shot 57.3%, and made 40.0% of its 3-point attempts. Despite shooting at such a high percentage, the Sooners still averaged a robust 62 field goal attempts per contest. Through East Carolina’s first 3 games they averaged 82.7 points scored and 67 field goal attempts per outing. This one has all the earmarks of an entertaining up and down high scoring game. Bet over the total for a Top Play wager. |
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11-17-21 | Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 214.5 | 89-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
Houston @ Oklahoma City 8:10 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Under 214.5 (5*) Oklahoma City has played 10-3 to the under this season and that includes 7-1 under in their previous 8 with a combined average of 200.9 points scored per game. The Thunder is averaging only 98.0 points scored per game while shooting a terrible 41.1% and 30.9% from 3-point territory for the season. The Thunder rank next to last in scoring offense, 28th in offensive field goal percentage, and 29th in offensive 3-point shooting percentage. Houston has been terrible offensively as well. During their previous 6 contests the Rockets have averaged a mere 98.0 points scored per game. The Rockets rankings in offensive categories are #27 in scoring, #25 in field goal percentage, #27 in 3-point shooting percentage, and #29 in free throw percentage. The moral to this analysis is it’s a matchup of 2 terrible offensive team. Bet under the total. |
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11-17-21 | Kings +2 v. Wolves | 97-107 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
Sacramento @ Minnesota 8:10 PM ET Game# 573-574 Play On: Sacramento +2.0 (5*) Minnesota has lost 9 of their last 11 and that includes 6 consecutive home defeats. The Timberwolves have scored less than 100 points in 6 of their 13 games this season which makes it awfully tough to win. Sacramento has gone a respectable 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS in road games this season. As a matter of fact, the Kings are coming off Monday’s 129-107 blowout win at Detroit. Bet Sacramento plus the small number. |
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11-17-21 | Wizards +1 v. Hornets | 87-97 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Washington @ Charlotte 7:10 PM ET Game# 559-560 Play On: Washington +1.0 (5*) Charlotte is coming off home underdog straight up wins in their last 2 games against Golden State and New York. Those victories improved their season record to 8-7 (.533). Washington enters today on a 5-game win streak with an average victory margin of 10.2 points per game. The Wizards allowed 100 points or fewer in all 5 of those win while holding those opponents to 38.7% shooting. Any NBA road team that’s facing an opponent coming off home underdog SU wins in each of their previous 2 games played, resulted in those road teams going 23-3 SU (88.5%) since 1996. Bet on Washington. |
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11-17-21 | Toledo v. Oakland -2 | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Toledo @ Oakland 7:00 PM ET Game# 667-668 Play On: Oakland -2.0 (5*) Toledo has started the season with a pair of 8-point wins over Valparaiso and Detroit. Although Oakland is 1-1, they have a more impressive resume. They played each of their first 2 games on the road and performed remarkably well with all considered. They opened the season with a 7-point loss at West Virginia but easily covered as a 17.5-point underdog. It was one of the rare occasions in the Bob Huggins era that West Virginia was outrebounded, and in this case by a considerable margin of 48-33. They followed that up with a huge upset 56-55 win at Oklahoma State and did so as a sizable 17.5-point underdog. Oakland didn’t shoot the ball well in either game but made up for it with a combined 26 offensive rebounds which created numerous multiple possession opportunities. Oakland will also be playing with big time revenge after losing by 27 to Toledo last season. Bet Oakland over Toledo. |
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11-16-21 | BYU +4.5 v. Oregon | 81-49 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
BYU @ Oregon 10:00 PM ET Game# 647-648 Play On: BYU +4.5 (5*) #12 Oregon is only a 4.0-point home favorite against BYU? That means, if the game was being played at BYU, then the unranked Cougars would be a 1.5 to 2.5-point favorite. Like I’ve said time and time again, I unequivocally trust the oddsmakers extensively more than those voting in national polls. The sportsbooks are begging you to bet the home favorite in this one. Well, I’m not taking the bait. Bet BYU plus the points. |
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11-16-21 | Toledo v. Ohio +7 | 35-23 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Toledo @ Ohio 7:00 ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Ohio +7.0 (5*) Toledo is coming off a 49-17 win over arguably the MAC’s worst team Bowling Green. The Rockets have been the model of inconsistency this season evidenced by a 1-3 record following a win. Their only win in that sequence came over a 1-9 Massachusetts team whose lone victory came over Connecticut team that’s gone 0-7 versus FBS teams. Toledo has gone over the total in each of their previous 2 games. Since 2019, the Rockets are 0-6 ATS following 2 consecutive games going over the total and were outscored by an average of 13.5 points per contest. Ohio started the season 0-4 SU&ATS and the cumulative score was 141-55. However, we must keep in mind that long time head coach Frank Solich abruptly decided to retire just before summer camp which caused some instability heading into the season. Since that time, Ohio is 5-1 ATS and 3-3 SU with all coming versus MAC opponents. As a matter of fact, their 3 conference losses have come by a combined 11 points. The Bobcats are coming off 2 consecutive SU wins as an underdog over Eastern Michigan and Miami-Ohio. They rushed for 178.3 yards per game during those 2 victories in addition to averaging a robust 8.8 yards per passing attempt. Bet Ohio plus the points. |
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11-16-21 | Hofstra +6.5 v. Iona | 74-82 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Hofstra @ Iona 7:00 ET Game# 615-616 Play On: Hofstra +6.5 (5*) Iona has opened the season with 2 home wins which have come over Appalachian State and Harvard. In their 90-87 win over Harvard, Iona allowed the visitors to shoot an alarmingly high 52.8% but were bailed out by 24 turnovers committed by the Crimson. Since the start of the 2019-2020 season, Iona is a dismal 1-6 SU following 2 consecutive home games. Hofstra shot a blistering 58% in their previous game which resulted in a 73-63 win at Duquesne. That win improved their season record to 1-1. Hofstra’s loss came at Houston by 8 in overtime and they easily covered that game as an 18.5-point underdog against a Final Four team from a season ago. Furthermore, since the start of the 2019-2020 season, Hofstra has gone an extremely profitable 19-6 ATS (76%) following a SU win. Bet Hofstra plus the points. |
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11-15-21 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
Rams @ 49ers 8:15 PM ET Game# 265-266 Play On: Under 50.5 (5*) The Rams are coming off last week’s 28-16 home loss to Tennessee which dropped their season record to 7-2. Since the start of last season, Los Angeles has played 6-1 to the under following a loss and there was a combined 37.7 points scored per game. Since 2019, San Francisco has played 6-0 to the under as an underdog and when the total fell between 48.5-53.0. Those 6 contests had a combined 37.5 points scored per game. The 49ers are coming off a 31-17 home loss to Arizona which dropped their season record to 3-5 (.375). Any NFL home team with a total of 43.0 or greater that’s coming off a division loss by 10 points or more, and has a season win percentage of .250 to .400, versus an opponent (Rams) with a winning record, resulted in those games playing 25-1 (96.2%) to the under since 2012. Bet this game to go under the total. |
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11-14-21 | Chiefs v. Raiders +2.5 | 41-14 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 17 m | Show | |
Kansas City @ Las Vegas 8:20 PM ET Game# 263-264 Play On: Las Vegas +2.5 (5*) The Chiefs have failed to cover in each of their previous 3 and are 2-7 ATS for the season. The Kansas City high powered offense has been stymied over their previous 3 contests while averaging just 12.0 points scored and 313.0 yards gained per game. The Chiefs are coming off an uninspiring 13-7 home win over Green Bay who was without Aaron Rodgers. The Chiefs amassed only 237 yards offense in that loss. The Chiefs have been consistently good when it comes to turnover margin since Andy Reid took over as head coach. That’s not been the case this season as the Chiefs have a turnover margin of -9. The Raiders are coming off a disappointing 23-16 road loss to the Giants last Sunday. The Raiders shot themselves in the foot by committing 3 turnovers. However, their defense surrendered only 245 yards. This will be their first meeting versus Kansas City this season. Las Vegas went 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS versus Kansas City last season and scored 31 and 40 points in those contests. Bet the Raiders plus the points. |
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11-14-21 | Eagles v. Broncos -128 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -128 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
Philadelphia @ Denver 4:25 PM ET Game# 261-262 Play On: Denver -128 (10*) Philadelphia is coming off a 29-24 home loss to the Chargers. That defeat dropped their season record to 3-6. However, the Eagles are 0-5 against teams that currently have a winning record and lost by 10.4 points per game. Denver is coming off a 30-16 upset win at Dallas and did so as a 10.5-point underdog. The final score did the Broncos no justice as they led 30-0 in the 4th quarter of that contest. That victory improved the Broncos season record to 5-4. The Denver defense has flown under the radar. They’re allowing just 17.0 points and 321.8 yards per game. Any NFL money line favorite (Denver) that’s coming off a road win by 10 points or more, versus an opponent coming off a home game in which each team scored 24 points or more, resulted in those money line favorites going 104-24 (81.3%) since 1980. Bet Denver for a Top Play money line wager. |
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11-14-21 | Vikings +3 v. Chargers | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ LA Chargers 4:05 PM ET Game# 255-256 Play On: Minnesota +3.0 (5*) The Chargers enter this week 5-3 with 2 of those losses coming at home. Los Angeles is coming off a 27-24 win at Philadelphia last week in a game they accumulated 445 yards of total offense. Unfortunately for Chargers backers, since 2019, their team has gone an abysmal 2-12 SU and 2-11-1 ATS following a contest in which they had 400 yards or more of total offense. The Vikings are coming off a gut-wrenching 34-31 overtime loss at Baltimore in a game they blew a 14-point 2nd half lead. However, they did cover rather easily as a 7.0-point underdog. On a positive note, since Mike Zimmer has taken over as head coach, Minnesota has gone a terrific 25-4 ATS 986.2%) during their last 29 when coming off a loss. You can make a strong argument that Minnesota is the best NFL team without a winning record. After all, they’re 3-5 with all their losses coming by 7 points or fewer and an average of 3.6 points per defeat. I’m looking for Minnesota running backs to have a productive day against a Charges defense ranking dead last in the NFL at stopping the run (161.6 YPG). That’s only going to make their play action passing game to be that more successful. Bet Minnesota plus the points. |
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11-14-21 | Panthers v. Cardinals -10 | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 6 m | Show | |
Carolina @ Arizona 4:05 PM ET Game# 257-258 Play On: Arizona -10.0 (5*) The Panthers have lost 5 of their last 6. During their previous 3 games the Chargers dreadful has been dreadful while averaging 9.3 points scored and 248.3 yards gained per game. The situation doen’t look any rosier this week with backup quarterback P.J. Walker getting the start. Not to mention they will be facing an Arizona defense which has allowed just 17.2 points and 321.0 yards per game this season. The Arizona didn’t miss a beat last week with Colt McCoy filling in for injured starter Kyler Murray at quarterback McCoy led Arizona to a 31-17 win at San Francisco. McCoy was an outstanding 23-27 for 274 yards passing without an interception. The Cardinals ran the ball for 163 yards as well. Arizona enters this week with a stellar 8-1 record and 6 of their wins have come by 12 points or more. Bet Arizona minus the points. |
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11-14-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team OVER 50.5 | 19-29 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay @ Washington 1:00 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Over 50.5 (5*) The biggest disappointment for Washington this season its record is that their defense has substantially regressed from where it was a year ago. Washington was #2 in total defense last season and was 6th in sacks with 47. This season has been a whole different story. The Redskins are #30 in total defense, #29 in points allowed per game, and has only 19 sacks which is only 19th best. Since 9/29/19, Tampa Bay has played 11-0 to the over in conference away games and the total is between 44.5-52.5. Those 11 contests averaged a combined 62.3 points scored per game. Furthermore, the Bucs are currently the highest scoring team in the NFL at 32.5 points per game. The Tampa Bay defense is solid but is still vulnerable against the pass. Tampa Bay played at Washington in last year’s NFL Wild Card Round and came away with a 31-23 win. The Bucs racked up 507 yards of total offense and also allowed 375 yards to Washington. Bet this game to go over the total. |
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11-13-21 | Nevada v. San Diego State -3 | 21-23 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
Nevada @ San Diego 10:30 PM ET Game# 223-224 Play On: San Diego State -3.0 (5*) When it comes purely to my eye test, I believe Nevada is the better team in this matchup. However, when talking about a betting situation, I firmly believe the #22 San Diego State Aztecs (8-1) are the right side on Saturday. Additionally, there’s been a huge line move on this contest and for no apparent reason other than extremely sharp money being wagered on San Diego State. It’s never a bad idea to follow a sharp money move of this magnitude. Bet San Diego State minus the points. |
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11-13-21 | NC State +2 v. Wake Forest | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 46 m | Show | |
NC State @ Wake Forest 7:30 PM ET Game# 147-148 Play On: NC State +2.0 (5*) Wake Forest is coming off a gut wrenching 58-55 loss at North Carolina last week in a game they led by 14 heading into the 4th quarter. That resulted in the Demon Deacons first loss of the season and put to rest any possible way of reaching the college football playoffs. I will go out on a limb and say the emotional toll taken from that defeat will carry over to this week. Couple that with them facing #16 NC State (7-2) and it doesn’t present a favorable betting situation for the small home favorite. The Wake Forest offense is undeniably an explosive group. Nonetheless, this will be unequivocally the best defense they’ve faced all season. The Wolfpack stop unit has allowed 14 points or fewer in 5 of their 9 games. Bet on NC State plus the small number. |
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11-13-21 | Texas A&M v. Ole Miss +2.5 | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show | |
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M 7:00 PM ET Game# 195-196 Play On: Ole Miss +2.5 (5*) Both teams enter this contest nationally ranked and with identical 7-2 overall records. Nevertheless, home field advantage will be key to us covering this contest. Ole Miss has gone 5-0 at home this season and outscored their opponents by an average of 21.0 points per game. During those home contests, Ole Miss has averaged 45.0 points and 575.6 yards per game. Ole Miss is an impressive +11 in turnover margin and has committed only 5 giveaways in 9 games played. The Rebels just don’t beat themselves. Bet Ole Miss plus the points. |
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11-13-21 | Purdue v. Ohio State -20.5 | Top | 31-59 | Win | 100 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
Purdue @ Ohio State 3:30 PM ET Game# 199-200 Play On: Ohio State -20.5 (10*) Purdue is coming off last week’s shocking 40-29 upset win over then #3 Michigan State. The Boilermakers also pulled off a similar type upset earlier this season over then #2 and undefeated Iowa. Nevertheless. They enter this game against the #4 Buckeyes as a 3-touchdown underdog. Purdue has been solid defensively this season. However, they will have their hands full against a balanced Ohio State offense that is averaging 44.9 points and 541.8 yards per game. The Buckeyes will make a statement in this one against #19 Purdue and solidify their position within the top 4 college football playoff spots. Bet Ohio State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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11-13-21 | Oklahoma v. Baylor +5.5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
Oklahoma @ Baylor 12:00 PM ET Game# 149-150 Play On: Baylor +5.5 (5*) The mighty Oklahoma Sooners are unbeaten at 9-0, yet the college football playoff committee has them ranked #8 going into this week, and with five 1 loss teams ranked ahead of them. They don’t think the Sooners are as good as their record indicates and neither do I. They will have their hands full at #13 Baylor (7-2) on Saturday. The Bears have gone a perfect 5-0 at home this season which includes quality wins over Iowa State, Texas, and BYU who were all ranked in the Top 25 for a large portion of this season before dropping out. Bet Baylor plus the points. |
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11-13-21 | East Carolina +5.5 v. Memphis | 30-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
East Carolina @ Memphis 12:00 ET Game# 173-174 Play On: East Carolina +5.5 (5*) I love this spot for the underdog Pirates. Memphis is coming off a huge 28-25 home win over SMU. I'm looking for this to be a flat spot for the Tigers. East Carolina is coming off a 45-3 blowout win over Temple. That’s the same Temple team that beat Memphis just a few weeks back. With that victory, East Carolina has gone a solid 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS over their previous 7 games. That’s the same South Carolina team that routed Florida 40-16 last Saturday. Bet East Carolina plus the points. |
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11-13-21 | Mississippi State +5.5 v. Auburn | 43-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
Mississippi State @ Auburn 12:00 PM ET Game# 175-176 Play On: Mississippi State +5.5 (5*) Mississippi is a deceiving 5-4 this season when considering they suffered 3 of those losses by 3 points or fewer. With a little bit of lick the Bulldogs could very easily have been 8-1 at this point. Mississippi State has posted quality wins over #11 Texas A&M (7-2), # 16 NC State (7-2), and Kentucky (6-3). Mississippi State is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS on the road this season while their defense held opponents to just 272.8 yards per game. Mississippi State has a yards per game differential of +120.3 this season while Auburn comes in at -43.2. That’s a huge +163.5-yard difference and especially when considering it favors the underdog. Bet on Mississippi State plus the points. |
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11-12-21 | Bulls +5.5 v. Warriors | 93-119 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Chicago @ Golden State 10:05 PM ET Game# 573-574 Play On: Chicago +5.5 (5*) Golden State enters this contest riding high after going 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 with a dominating average victory margin of 19.0 points per game. However, the upstart Bulls are by no means a pushover. They’re 8-3 SU&ATS this season overall and 3-1 SU&ATS in road games. As a matter of fact, the Bulls are 8-1 SU&ATS this season against all teams not named Philadelphia. Bet Chicago plus the points. |
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11-12-21 | Hawks v. Nuggets -4 | 96-105 | Win | 102 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Denver 8:40 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Denver -4.0 (5*) Atlanta enters this contest reeling after going 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 while being outscored by 11.4 points per game. The Hawks are a dismal 1-7 SU & 0-8 ATS on the road this season and has been outscored by an average of 10.1 points per game. Dating back to last season’s playoffs, the Hawks are an abysmal 0-7 SU&ATS during their previous 7 games as a road underdog and lost by an average of 16.0 points per contest. That includes 0-5 SU&ATS this season (-12.2 PPG). Denver is on a current 3-game win streak and has been magnificent defensively at home. The Nuggets have allowed fewer than 100 points in all 6 of their home games this season. Specifically speaking, Denver allowed 93.0 points and just 80 field goal attempts at home this season. Bet Denver minus the points. |
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11-12-21 | Kings v. Thunder +5 | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Sacramento @ Oklahoma City 8:10 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Oklahoma City +5.0 (5*) After opening the season 1-6, Oklahoma City has rebounded to win 3 straight also covered 4 in a row. Throughout their previous 4 contests, Oklahoma City has allowed 99.3 points per game and held opponent to a mere 38.9% shooting. The Thunder has also gone 5-0 ATS and 3-2 SU in their last 5 as an underdog of 11.0 or less. Bet on Oklahoma City plus the points. |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh OVER 72 | 23-30 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh 7:30 PM ET Game# 115-116 Play On: Over 72.0 (5*) This game features 2 of the most potent offensive teams in the country. The starting quarterbacks Sam Howell of North Carolina and Kenny Pickett of Pittsburgh are top NFL prospects and for good reason. Both have put up gaudy numbers this season regardless of the competition. North Carolina ranks #111 out of 130 teams when it comes to scoring defense. As a matter of fact, during their previous 3 contests, North Carolina has allowed 47.0 points and 519.7 yards per game. They Tar Heels defense will have the unenviable task of facing the #1 scoring team in the nation in Pitt who averages 45.0 points per game. Conversely, North Carolina is #9 in yards gained and #11 in points scored per game. Both team's offenses like to go at a lightning quick pace with North Carolina averaging 71 plays and Pitt an enormous 79 snaps per game. Pittsburgh has gone over the total in their previous 2 games. Since Pat Narduzzi became head coach at Pitt, the Panthers have played 17-3 (85%) to the over after their previous 2 games each went over, and there was a combined average of 70.3 points scored per contest. Since Mac Brown began his 2nd tenure as head coach at North Carolina, his Tar Heels have played 6-0 to the over in road games versus opponents with a winning record. Those contests averaged a combined 74.5 points scored per game. Fasten your seat belts for a wildly entertaining and high scoring affair. Bet this contest over the total. |
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11-11-21 | Sacred Heart +15.5 v. Providence | 64-92 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
Sacred Heart @ Providence 6:30 PM ET Game# 1227-1228 Play On: Sacred Heart +15.5 (5*) Providence is coming off an uninspiring 80-73 win over Fairfield in their season opener. The Friars were a 14.5-point home favorite, and at no time were they ever covering this contest with their largest lead being 12 points. Providence had a parade to the free throw line evidenced by an enormous 36 attempts but made good on only 66.7% of those opportunities. The Friars were a dismal 4-22 from beyond the 3-point line. Under current head coach Ed Cooley and since 2019, Providence has gone a poor 4-14 ATS in non-conference game. Sacred Heart is coming off an 86-81 overtime win at Lasalle in their season and did so as a 7.5-point underdog. That was a huge confidence building win and especially considering they over a 5-point deficit with just 0:05 left in regulation time and were behind 52-38 with 10:49 left to play. Bet Sacred Hear plus the points. |
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11-10-21 | Hornets v. Grizzlies OVER 228 | 118-108 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Charlotte @ Memphis 8:10 PM ET Game# 533-534 Play On: Over 228.0 (5*) Charlotte has played 9-3 to the over this season and there was a combined average of 232.5 points scored per game. The Hornets enjoy playing at an extremely fast pace which is evidenced by their 95 field goal attempts per game. They will have a willing dance partner tonight in Memphis who averages a robust 94 field goal attempts per contest. Charlotte has lost 5 in a row and allowed an alarmingly high 122.6 points per game while opponents shot 48.6% and includes 40.6% from 3-point territory. The Hornets also allowed an everge of 28 free throw attempts per game during this current losing streak. Conversely, Memphis has been much better offensively at home than on the road thus far. The Grizzlies are far from a stout defensive team that allows 113.8 points per game while their opponents have shot 48.0% and 38.6% from 3-point land. Bet this game to go over the total. |
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11-10-21 | Raptors +2 v. Celtics | 88-104 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Toronto @ Boston 7:40 PM ET Game# 527-528 Play On: Toronto +2.0 (5*) This line jumped right off the page at me. After all, we have a Raptors team which is coming off home losses in their last 2 games played. On the other hand, Boston is coming off a 3-game road trip in which they went 2-1. The Celtics also enter tonight on 3 days of rest. Nonetheless, the Celtics are only a short favorite in this matchup. After further examination, there are early season trends for both teams that can’t be ignored when handicapping this game. Toronto has gone a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS on the road thus far and had a decisive victory margin of 13.3 points per game. One of those road wins came at Boston on 10/22 when the Raptors crushed Boston 115-83 and did so as a sizable 7.0-point underdog. Conversely, Boston is 0-3 SU&ATS at home this season and all 3 defeats came as a favorite. Bet Toronto plus the points. |
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11-10-21 | Wizards -3 v. Cavs | 97-94 | Push | 0 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Washington @ Cleveland 7:10 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: Washington -3.0 (5*) Cleveland has been one the biggest early season surprises. They are off to a 7-4 start and that includes going 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 with 3 of those wins coming by 3 points or fewer. Yet they find themselves as a home underdog. It’s just never that easy when it comes to NBA betting. I am taking the contrarian approach to this matchup and side with a road favorite who enters today with a more than respectable 7-3 record of their own. Bet Washington minus the small number. |
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11-10-21 | Ball State v. Northern Illinois +2.5 | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Ball State @ Northern Illinois 7:00 PM ET Game# 111-112 Play On: Northern Illinois +2.5 (5*) It’s never a bad thing when your head coach signs a contract extension a day before a game. That’s exactly what happened with Northern Illinois head coach Thomas Hammock just yesterday. This certainly brings a sense of security and positivity to the coaching staff and players. By, the way, after going 0-6 last season in a pandemic shortened campaign, Northern Illinois enters this week leading the MAC West Division with a 4-1 record and is 6-3 overall. Besides their stellar conference record, Northern Illinois pulled off an upset win in their season opener at Georgia Tech and did so as a 19.0-point underdog. Ball State narrowly escaped with a 31-25 win at Akron and didn’t come close to covering as a 20.0-point favorite.  Bet Northern Illinois plus the small number. |
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11-09-21 | Bucks v. 76ers +5.5 | 118-109 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
Milwaukee @ Philadelphia 7:35 PM ET Game# 517-518 Play On: Philadelphia +5.5 (5*) Milwaukee will once again be without star guard Khris Middleton and starting center Brook Lopez. The Bucks have gone a dismal 1-5 SU&ATS in their last 6 games. The 76ers will be without 4 players tonight due to COVID protocols and that includes star center Joel Embiid. Things didn’t work out well when being shorthanded last night as they suffered a home 103-96 loss to New York. That defeat ended a 6-game win streak. Despite that loss, Philadelphia is still an outstanding 69-12 in their last 81 regular season home games. That includes 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 ATS when there’s a point-spread of 8.0 or less. The 76ers are also 6-0 SU in their last 6 at home when playing with nor rest and coming off a loss, and they outscored those opponents by 16.4 points per contest. Bet on Philadelphia plus the points. |
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11-09-21 | Kansas -4 v. Michigan State | 87-74 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show | |
Kansas vs. Michigan State 7:00 PM ET Game# 625-626 Play On: Kansas -4.0 (5*) Michigan State has gone 4-4 SU and 1-7 ATS in their first 9 games of the season over the past 2 years when playing away from home. The Spartans are coming off a disappointing 15-13 season and went a bankroll depleting 8-20 ATS in those contests. That includes the Spartans going 1-6 SU&ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.0 or less. This is an experienced Kansas club that returns 4 starters from a team that went 21-9 last season and advanced to the 2nd Round of the NCAA Tournament.The preseason power ratings that I trust indicates should be a 7.5-point favorite on a neutral floor versus Michigan State. It’s very seldom there’s that much disparity between my power numbers compared to the actual point-spread unless a key injury or pertinent miscellaneous factors are failed to be accounted for. Neither comes in to play for this Tuesday night premium matchup at Madison Square Garden in New York. Bet Kansas minus the points. |
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11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers -7 | 27-29 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Bears @ Steelers 8:15 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Steelers -7.0 (5*) The Bears are pathetic on offense and that’s been a key contributing factor to them going 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 games. During that stretch, the Bears lost by an average of 18.7 points per game. Speaking of the Bears anemic offense, they are averaging 10.8 points scored and 233.0 yards gained per game throughout 4 road contests. Chicago is coming off last Sunday’s 33-22 home loss to San Francisco. Since 2019 and all under current head coach Matt Nagy, Chicago has gone 0-5 SU&ATS as a road underdog and following a loss in their previous game. Their average point-spread was +8.1 in those contests and they lost by a decisive margin of 15.6 points game. Many counted the Steelers out after their poor 1-3 start. However, they’ve rebounded to win their last 3. Their defense has been outstanding over their current win streak in allowing just 16.3 points and 329.7 yards per game. By the way, since 2018 and all under present head coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 6-0 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 3.0 or more following 2 or more wins in a row, and they won by a substantial margin of 19.8 points per game. Bet Pittsburgh minus the points. |
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11-07-21 | Titans v. Rams OVER 52.5 | 28-16 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Titans @ Rams 8:20 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Over 52.5 (5*) The Rams are in the top 5 in many offensive statistical categories heading into this week. I look for Mathew Stafford to have a huge day against a Tennessee defense that has been poor for 2 seasons now. Specifically speaking, the Rams are #4 in passing yards per game at 301.8 while Tennessee is #24 this season while allowing 267.4 passing yards per game. The Titans will unequivocally miss star running back Derek Henry who is out an indefinite period due to suffering an injury in last week’s 34-31 win at Indianapolis. It’s time for players like A.J. Brown and Julio Jones to take on a larger role which they’re fully capable of doing. Additionally, quarterback Ryan Tannehill needs to be a playmaker instead of game manager which he’s displayed the ability to do so at times throughout his NFL career. The Rams have averaged 34.7 points scored and 402.0 yards gained per game over their previous 3 contests. Conversely, Tennessee has scored 33.0 points per game throughout their last 4 games. Bet this game to go over the total. |
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11-07-21 | Chargers v. Eagles +1.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
Chargers @ Eagles 4:05 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Eagles +1.5 (10*) You may be surprised to know that the Chargers are dead last in the NFL at stopping the run. They rank #32 in rushing yards allowed per game (159.6) and #32 at rush yards allowed per attempt (5.1). Furthermore, over their last 3 contests, the Chargers defense has allowed 186.0 yards rushing per game and that alone was a major contributing factor to them entering this week on a 2-game losing streak. Philadelphia should be able to the run the ball with a huge amount of success, not only because their opponent is inept stopping it, but because they’ve had some degree of success in doing so up until now. The Eagles are coming off a 44-6 blowout win over Detroit last week and amassed 236 rushing years. The Eagles enter this week #7 in offensive rushing yards per game (131.7) and #4 in yards per rushing attempts (5.0). Any NFL home team (Eagles) with a win percentage of .333 or better, coming off a road win by 23 points or more, versus an opponent (Chargers) coming off a home game where both teams scored 24 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .750 or worse, resulted in those home teams going 33-2 SU (94.2%) since 1983. The straight up betting angle takes on added significance when considering the current point-spread. Bet the Eagles for a Top Play wager. |
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11-07-21 | Vikings +6 v. Ravens | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Vikings +6.0 (5*) Minnesota has enough offensive juice to stay in this game throughout. Especially when considering, the Ravens defense has allowed 491 yards or more in 3 of its first 7 games. The Vikings look to rebound off a home favorite 20-16 loss to Dallas last Sunday. Conversely, Baltimore is coming off a 41-17 blowout loss to Cincinnati in a game they closed as a 6.5-point home favorite. I wouldn’t be shocked to see an outright upset but taking the generous points we’re being afforded is a winning ticket. Any NFL team (Vikings) playing after Game 5 of their season as a road underdog of 3.0 to 6.5 and is coming off a loss, versus an opponent (Ravens) coming off a home favorite straight up loss by 10 points or more, resulted in those teams going 8-0 ATS and 7-1 SU since 2003. Bet the Vikings plus the points. |
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11-07-21 | Patriots v. Panthers +4 | 24-6 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 13 m | Show | |
Patriots @ Panthers 1:00 PM ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Panthers +4.0 (5*) The Patriots are coming last Sunday’s 27-24 road win over the Chargers which improved their season record to 4-4. Now they go on the road again but opposed to last week they find themselves as a favorite and not underdog. Much ado will be made in NFL betting circles about the availability of Carolina starting quarterback Sam Darnold. However, I’m here to tell you there’s very little if any drop off when they go to backup P.J. Walker. Especially when considering how Darnold has performed in recent weeks. With that being said, it’s the Carolina defense that will earn us a cover. The Panthers are allowing just 19.9 points and 295.6 yards per game. The Panthers are coming off last Sunday’s 19-13 win at Atlanta in a game they closed as a 2.5-point underdog. Since Matt Ruhle became Carolina’s head coach in 2019, the Panthers have gone a profitable 6-1 ATS and 5-2 SU following an underdog SU win. Bet the Panthers plus the points. |
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11-07-21 | Browns +2.5 v. Bengals | 41-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show | |
Browns @ Bengals 1:00 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Browns +2.5 (5*) For starters, the Browns are 5- versus the Bengals over the past 3 years which includes a 2-game sweep last season. Cincinnati showed their inexperience on handling success after last week’s 34-31 road loss to the Jets in a game they closed as a substantial 11.5point favorite and dropped their record to 5-2 (.625). The Browns are coming off a disappointing 15-10 home favorite loss to Pittsburgh. The combination of those results and existing data leads to a never lost NFL betting angle which is displayed below. Any NFL team (Browns) that’s coming off a SU favorite loss in which they failed to cover by 9.0-points or more, and they’re playing after Game 5 of their season, versus an opponent (Bengals) coming off a road game in which both teams scored 24 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .625 or worse, resulted in those team like the Browns going 11-0 SU&ATS since 2017. The average margin of victory in those 11 contests came by a healthy 16.0 points per game. Bet the Browns plus the small number. |
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11-06-21 | Mississippi State v. Arkansas -4 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
Mississippi State @ Arkansas 4:00 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: Arkansas -4.0 (10*) Mississippi State is coming off last Saturday’s home win over nationally ranked Kentucky. That victory was key in the Bulldogs being ranked #17 in the first college football playoff poll. Yet they’re an underdog against an Arkansas team that failed to crack the Top 25 in that very same poll, and with an identical 5-3 record as they possess. Arkansas is also coming off a bye week which is always an advantage when facing an unrested opponent at this point of the season. Both teams defenses are solid. Mississippi State has passed on an enormous 72.4% of their offensive snaps this season. Conversely, Arkansas has run the ball on 65.7% of their offensive snaps this season. However, the Razorbacks still average over 200 passing yards per game and extremely impressive 9.0 yards per pass attempt. The defenses will cancel each other out, Arkansas is unequivocally the more balanced offensive team. That will be the key to us attaining a successful cover. Bet Arkansas minus the points for my SEC Game of the Year. |
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11-06-21 | Michigan State v. Purdue +3 | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
Michigan State @ Purdue 3:30 PM ET Game# 393-394 Play On: Purdue +3.0 (5*) Why is the #3 ranked team in the latest college football poll Michigan State (8-0) only a 3-point favorite at unranked Purdue? I’ll tell you why, because like myself the oddsmakers don’t believe Michigan State is as good as their record and current ranking indicates. Besides, I can’t imagine that the Spartans can come close to matching the level of intensity they displayed at home last week against bitter rival and still #7 ranked Michigan. Furthermore, Michigan State needed to overcome a sizable 16-point 2nd half deficit on their way to a 37-33 win. Purdue is coming off last week’s 28-23 win at Nebraska which leaves them 1 win away from bowl eligibility. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Purdue pull off an outright upset in this spot. Nevertheless, let’s not get greedy and take the points being given to us. Bet Purdue plus the points. |
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11-06-21 | Wake Forest v. North Carolina -133 | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show | |
Wake Forest @ North Carolina 12:00 PM ET Game# 339-340 Play On: North Carolina -133 (5*) Here we have the #9 team in the latest College Football Playoff Poll who is sporting a perfect 8-0 record, and they’re an underdog versus a perceived mediocre 4-4 opponent. This appears to be a monumental trap that I’m falling for. Furthermore, even with their unbeaten record, Wake Forest has allowed an alarmingly high 36.7 points and 538.3 yards per game during 3 road contests. North Carolina entered this year ranked #10 in the AP Preseason Poll. Obviously, the Tar Heels have vastly underachieved thus far. What better way to atone from being a major disappointment than to upset a nationally ranked Top 10 opponent who is also an in-state rival. A majority of North Carolina’s struggles this season have come on the road. The Tar Heels are 4-1 at home while averaging 45.2 points scored and 515.2 yards gained per contest. North Carolina is coming off a hard fought 44-34 loss at Notre Dame last week. The good news is they’re 3-0 SU this season following a loss and averaged 54.3 points scored per game. Bet on North Carolina as a money line wager. |
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11-06-21 | SMU v. Memphis +5 | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show | |
SMU @ Memphis 12:00 PM ET Game# 377-378 Play On: Memphis +5.0 (5*) SMU is coming off their first loss of the season 44-37 at Houston. SMU is a quick tempo high scoring team. In any event, the Mustangs are vulnerable defensively and that equation has been a familiar theme during recent seasons. Their defensive ineptness places an inordinate amount of pressure on its offense to be near perfect on a weekly basis. It’s extremely difficult for a team like SMU subscribing to that formula without slipping up on 2-3 occasions over the course of a season. Memphis hasn’t played up to their standards this season, and as a result, the Tigers are currently 4-4. Nonetheless, they are 3-1 at home with their lone loss coming against #16 UTSA (8-0), and even then it came by a slim 3-point margin. As a matter of fact, Memphis has gone an outstanding 30-2 SU in their last 32 at home which includes 6-0 ATS as an underdog with 5 of those resulting in SU wins. Memphis is also 18-1 in their last 19 conference home games with their lone setback transpiring back in 2018 which was a narrow 1-point loss to then nationally ranked Central Florida. It also should be noted, 3 of the Tigers 4 losses have come by 6 points or fewer. Bet Memphis plus the points. |
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11-06-21 | Ohio State v. Nebraska +15 | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
Ohio State @ Nebraska 12:00 PM ET Game# 373-374 Play On: Nebraska +15.0 (5*) Nebraska enters this Big 10 showdown with #5 Ohio State with a disappointing 3-6 record. However, all 6 of those losses have come by 8 points or fewer. That includes losses to #3 Michigan State by 3, #7 Michigan by 3, #8 Oklahoma by 7, and #20 Minnesota by 7. Even more compelling is the fact that they have outgained their 9 opponents by an average of 121.7 yards per game. Additionally, all 3 of Nebraska’s wins have come at home. Despite the disparity in these team’s records, Nebraska is battle tested and more than capable of giving Ohio State all they can handle. Bet Nebraska plus the points. |
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11-05-21 | Pacers v. Blazers OVER 222.5 | Top | 106-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Indiana @ Portland 10:10 PM ET Game# 549-550 Play On: Over 225.0 (10*) Indiana enters this contest on a modest 2-game win streak. Dating back to last season, Indiana has played 8-0 to the over during its last 8 following 2 consecutive wins. The average total in those 8 contests was 234.8 and a combined 250.8 points were scored per game. Indiana has played 3-1 to the over in road games thus far, and there was a combined 233.7 points scored per contest. Portland went under the total in each of its previous 2 games. Since the start of last season, Portland has played 11-2 to the over following back-to-back games staying under, and a combined 236.0 points were scored contest. Defense has been an area of concern for the Trailblazers of late as they allowed their last 3 opponents to shoot 51.7% or better. Portland is averaging a robust 120.5 points scored per game at home this season. Bet over the total for a Top Play wager. |
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11-05-21 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College UNDER 48.5 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech @ Boston College 7:30 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Under 48.5 (5*) Boston College enters this week on a 4-game losing streak. During that abysmal losing stretch, Boston College scored 14 points or fewer on each occasion. Boston College has also played 5-0 to the under this season when their total was 56.5 or less, and there was just a combined 36.0 points scored per game. Conversely, Virginia Tech has played 6-0 to the under this season when their total was 47.5 or greater. Those 6 contests had a combined 38.3 points scored per game. I look for this matchup to be an old-fashioned slugfest where the defenses are dominant. Bet on this game to go under the total. |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts -10 | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Jets @ Colts 8:20 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Colts -10.0 (5*) The Jets are coming off a shocking upset of Cincinnati last week and they did so as an 11.5-point home underdog. They piled up an enormous 511 yards of total offense against a Cincinnati defense which had been stout up until that point. Their previous high was 355 yards in their only other win which came as a home underdog against Tennessee. Now the Jets go on the road where they’re 0-3 SU&ATS this season and were outscored by a massive 24.0 points per game. Additionally, since 2019, the Jets are 4-12 ATS as a road underdog and were outscored by an average of 15.2 points per contest. Jets quarterback Mike White had an awesome NFL starting debut last week while throwing for over 400 yards. However, the Colts will be the first team he’ll face who had extensive tape on him to look at and I don’t anticipate him coming closing to matching his tremendous performance just 4 days ago. Not to mention, White will be making his first NFL road start and doing so on an abbreviated work week. The Colts are coming off a disappointing 34-31 overtime loss to Tennessee in a game they closed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The good news, since 2019 and all under current head coach Frank Reich, the Colts are 5-0 SU&ATS immediately after a straight up favorite loss with an average victory margin of 13.2 points per game. The Colts enter this week with an uninspiring 3-5 record. Nevertheless, their 5 losses have come against opponents that presently have a combined record of 21-9 (.700). Bet the Colts minus the points. |
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11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +5 | 109-98 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Philadelphia @ Detroit 7:10 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: Detroit +5.0 (5*) Philadelphia will be playing with no rest following a 4-game homestand that saw them go 4-0 and conclude with last night’s 103-98 win over Chicago. The 76ers covered in each of the previous 3. Ironically enough, the homestand began with a 110-102 win over Detroit and it was their lone non-cover while coming up short as a 10.5-point favorite. The 76ers enter today with a stellar 6-2 (.750) record. Detroit will look to rebound after an embarrassing last 2 games in which they lost at Brooklyn 117-91 and to Milwaukee 117-89. Those 2 losses dropped Detroit to a dismal 1-6 (.143) start to the season. The team statistical data in this matchup points to another Detroit blowout loss and that certainly has swayed public betting patterns to overwhelmingly side with Philadelphia. Any NBA home team (Detroit) with a point-spread of 9.0 or less that’s coming off a loss by 7 points or more, and their season win percentage is .250 or worse, versus an opponent (Philadelphia) who’s coming off SU&ATS wins in each of their previous 2 contests, and they possess a win percentage of between .600 to .750, resulted in those home teams going an extremely profitable 16-1 ATS (94.1%) since the start of the 2012-2013 NBA season. Those home teams also won 11 of those 17 contests straight up and their average point-spread was +5.5. Bet Detroit plus the points. |
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11-03-21 | Bulls v. 76ers -122 | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
Chicago @ Philadelphia 7:10 PM ET Game# 507-508 Play On: Philadelphia -122 (10**) Philadelphia coming off Monday’s 113-103 home win over Portland. That now makes the 76ers a terrific 68-11 (.861) in their last 79 regular season home games. Today will be the finale of a 4-game home stand for Philadelphia and they won each of the first 3 and by a decisive margin of 15.3 points per contest. The Chicago Bulls are off to an impressive 6-1 starts with their lone defeat coming by 1 at New York. However, they’re last 2 games have seen them win straight up as an underdog on both occasions. That sets up for a rare but unbeaten NBA ATS betting angle that goes against teams like Chicago in this exact situation. Any home team (Philadelphia) who’s point-spread is +3.5 to -3.5 that’s coming off a SU win by 10-points or more, versus an opponent (Chicago) coming off back-to-back SU underdog wins, resulted in those home teams going 10-0 SU&ATS since 1995. The average margin of victory in those 10 contests came by 10.3 points per game. Bet Philadelphia on the money line for a Top Play wager. |
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11-02-21 | Braves +122 v. Astros | Top | 7-0 | Win | 122 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Astros (Garcia) @ Braves (Fried) 8:09 PM ET Game# 961-962 Play On: Braves +12 (10*) The Atlanta Braves are coming off Sunday’s 9-5 loss which prevented them from a World Series title. However, and on a positive note, Atlanta has gone 7-0 in their last 7 following a loss and hasn’t been on a 2-game losing streak since 9/18. The starting pitchers in Game 6 have both encountered issues during postseason action. Nevertheless, I trust Atlanta’s Max Fried more than Luis Garcia of Houston. The current total on this game is 8.5 and that’s significant. Since the start of last season, Max Fried has gone 19-3 in his team starts when the total was 8.0 or 8.5. That totals parameter indicated Fried has fared very well when not facing another team’s ace. Bet the Braves for a money line underdog Top Play wager. |
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11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo -8.5 | 52-49 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan @ Toledo 7:00 PM ET Game# 301-302 Play On: Toledo -8.5 (5*) Toledo is a deceiving 4-4 this season. The Rockets suffered 3 of their 4 defeats by 3-points or fewer which included 32-29 at #8 Notre Dame. Toledo is coming off an impressive 34-15 win over Western Michigan and did so as a 1.5-point home underdog. These teams met at Eastern Michigan last season and Toledo walked away with a 45-28 win. Any college football conference home favorite of 3.5 to 11.0 with a win percentage of .444 or better, and they’re coming off a home underdog SU win by 14 points or more, versus an opponent playing with revenge, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 ATS since 1992. The average margin of victory in those 13 contests came by a decisive 19.5 points per game. Bet on Toledo minus the points. |
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11-01-21 | Giants +10.5 v. Chiefs | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
NY Giants @ Kansas City 8:15 PM ET Game# 277-278 Play On: Giants +10.5 (5*) For starters, Kansas City has gone 0-7 ATS in their previous 7 regular season home games with all coming as a favorite and lost 3 of those contests straight up. That includes 2 straight home losses this year to the Chargers and Bills. The Chiefs are coming off a dismal performance at Tennessee in which they were blown out 27-3 as a 5.5-point favorite. The Chiefs were a -2 turnover margin in the lass and that now makes 5 straight games in which they had less takeaways than their opponents had. As a matter of fact, during the Chiefs last 6 games in which they went 2-4, Kansas City has an atrocious -12 turnover margin. The Giants are coming off an encouraging 25-3 home win over Carolina this past weekend. During that win, they held the Panthers offense to only 173 total yards and was +1 in the turnover department. You may be surprised to know that since 9/23/2018 the Giants have gone an extremely profitable 16-4 ATS as a road underdog. Tightening that impressive money-making streak up even further, during that identical stretch they were 12-1 ATS as a non-division road underdog of 14.0 or less and won 5 of those contests straight up. Any road NFL pick/underdog that was a +1 or better in turnover margin during its previous game, and they’re facing an opponent who had -1 or worse turnover margin in each of their previous 2 games, resulted in those road underdogs going 33-4 ATS (89.2%) since 2017. Furthermore, those road teams also won 18 of those 37 games straight up and their average point-spread was +6.3. Bet the Giants plus the points. |
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10-31-21 | Cowboys v. Vikings -3 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -101 | 31 h 18 m | Show |
Dallas @ Minnesota 8:20 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Minnesota -3.0 (10*) As per usual, Dallas is certain to attract a sizable amount of support from a betting perspective in this contest. They enter this stand alone nationally televised primetime game on a 5-0 SU&ATS streak while outscoring opponents by 12.4 points per contest. Yet, here they are as a 3.0-point underdog versus a 3-3 Minnesota team. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the red-hot underdog and I’m not falling for the trap. Additionally, since 2019, Dallas is 0-6 SU&ATS coming off a win and when their point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0 and lost by an average of 11.8 points per game. This is still a porous Dallas defense in my opinion. They’re allowing 24.3 points and 381.2 yards per game. Those defensive numbers could be even worse if not for the fact they’ve forced 14 turnovers in their first 6 games. They’ll be facing a Minnesota team that have averaged less than 1 turnover committed per game. Minnesota is one of just a few teams that can come close to matching the Cowboys offensive explosiveness. The Vikings are 5th in the NFL when it comes to total offense at 414.2 yards gained per game. The Vikings 3 losses have come against Arizona, Cleveland, and Cincinnati who have a combined record of 16-5. Furthermore, those 3 defeats came by a combined 11 points. The Vikings are much better than their 3-3 record indicates, and this current point-spread exemplifies that. Moreover, since Mike Zimmer has taken over as the Vikings head coach, Minnesota has gone an impressive 17-7 SU and 19-4 ATS at home versus non-division opponents with a win percentage of .375 or better. Bet Minnesota minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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10-31-21 | Bucs v. Saints +4.5 | 27-36 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans 4:25 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: New Orleans +4.5 (5*) I am not going to waste your time by attempting to poke holes in the Tampa Bay resume. I’d rather make a case from another angle and that’s New Orleans as an underdog during Sean Payton’s head coaching tenure. Since 2018, New Orleans has gone 9-1 SU and 9-0-1 ATS as an underdog of 2.0-points or greater under Payton. Furthermore, the Saints have gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 regular season contests versus Tampa Bay and won by an average of 16.8 points per game. Furthermore, New Orleans is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 at home following a win and versus an opponent off a win. Bet on New Orleans plus the points. |
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10-31-21 | 49ers v. Bears +4 | 33-22 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
San Francisco @ Chicago 1:00 PM ET Game# 265-266 Play On: Chicago +4.0 (5*) You may be surprised to know that since 2019, San Francisco has gone an abysmal 1-9 ATS when facing teams with a losing record. They will be facing a 3-4 Bears team on Sunday. Furthermore, since the start of last season, the 49ers are 1-6 SU versus teams with a losing record. The 49ers opened the season 2-0 and both wins occurred on the road. However, those victories came over Detroit and Philadelphia who are currently a combined 2-12 this season. Since that time, the 49ers have gone 0-4 SU&ATS and they were favorite in 3 of those contests. The Bears have been profitable within this point-spread parameter as a home underdog in recent years. As a matter of fact, since 12/21/2014, Chicago is 15-4 ATS as a home underdog of 3.0 or greater versus all teams not named Green Bay. Chicago’s 4 losses this season have come against opponents that presently have a combined 22-6 record. Conversely 2 of their 3 wins came over Cincinnati (5-2) and Las Vegas (5-2). Bet Chicago plus the points. |
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10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts -2.5 | 34-31 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 7 m | Show | |
Tennessee @ Indianapolis 1:00 PM ET Game# 257-258 Play On: Indianapolis -2.5 (5*) Despite this being a division game, this is a classic flat spot for Tennessee. After all, the Titans are coming off wins over Kansas City and Buffalo in their last 2 games and accomplished both as a home underdog. Conversely, after an unexpected 0-3 start to the season, the Colts have rebounded to win 3 of its last 4 and is currently on a 2-game win streak. Their only loss in that sequence came in overtime at Baltimore. The Colts are an opportunistic team has a turnover margin of +9 for the season and look for that to be a key in attaining the win and cover. Bet Indianapolis minus the points. |
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10-30-21 | Fresno State v. San Diego State | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
Fresno State @ San Diego State 10:30 PM ET Game# 213-214 Play On: Fresno State (Pick/-110) Granted San Diego State is 7-0 and ranked #21 nationally. I still firmly believe that 6-2 Fresno State is the better team in this matchup, and definitively so offensively. Fresno State is battle tested on the road after already winning at UCLA as a double-digit underdog and having taken #7 Oregon down to the wire in a 7-point loss as an 18.0-point underdog. The Aztecs most notable win on their resume was an overtime 2-point home win over Utah and all 7 of its wins have come over currently unranked opponents. This is a Fresno team that averages 35.6 points scored and 479.6 yards gained per game. On the other hand, over their previous 3 contests San Diego State has averaged 23.3 points scored and 268.3 yards gained per game. Bet on Fresno State. |
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10-30-21 | North Carolina +4 v. Notre Dame | 34-44 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Notre Dame 7:30 PM ET Game# 209-210 Play On: North Carolina +3.5 (10*) Notre Dame is coming last Saturday 31-16 win over USC, and they covered as a 7.5-point home favorite. That victory improved their season record to 6-1. Nonetheless, 3 of their 6 wins came by exactly 3 points. Conversely, North Carolina is coming off a 45-42 home win over Miami Fla. This sets up an outstanding college football betting angle which is displayed below. Any college football underdog of 3.5 or less (North Carolina) that’s coming off a home win in which they scored 48 or less, versus an opponent (North Carolina) coming off a home favorite ATS win, and they have at least 1 loss on the season, resulted in those small away underdogs going 25-1 ATS (96.1%) since 2006 and they won 24 of those 26 contests straight up. Bet on North Carolina plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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10-30-21 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State -114 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
Kentucky @ Mississippi State 7:00 PM ET Game# 185-186 Play On: Mississippi State -114 Mississippi State has won their last 5 at home versus Kentucky and outscored them by an average of 18.4 points per game. The Bulldogs are coming off last Saturday’s 45-6 blowout win at Vanderbilt which improved their season record to 4-3. Yet, the oddsmakers deem this to be an even matchup despite Kentucky being 6-1 and ranked #12 nationally. Kentucky’s first loss occurred last week at #1 Georgia 30-13. Any college football conference home team (Mississippi State) that’s coming off a conference away win by 16 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .250 or better, versus an opponent (Kentucky) coming off a conference away loss, resulted in those home teams going 31-4 straight up since 2017. Furthermore, if those opponents had a win percentage of .600 or better the straight up betting angle improves to 10-0 with an average victory margin of 21.4 points per game. Bet Mississippi State on the money line. |
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10-30-21 | Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech -4 | 26-17 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech 12:00 PM ET Game# 145-146 Play On: Georgia Tech -4.0 (5*) Virginia Tech has gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 and all those took place at home. You can give them an excuse in losses versus #11 and #17 Pittsburgh who have a combined record of 12-2 this season. But last week’s 41-36 loss to Syracuse in a game they blew a 9-point lead with less than 3 minutes to play was of the gut-wrenching variety. During this 3-game losing streak, the Hokies have allowed 33.7 points and 450.0 yards per game. Georgia Tech is coming last Saturday’s 48-40 loss at Virginia. Nevertheless, they have gone a perfect 3-0 this season following a loss and won by 18.3 points per contest. The Yellowjackets offense has shown vast improvement throughout their previous 3 contests while amassing 30.7 points scored and 480.7 yards gained per game. Bet Georgia Tech minus the points. |
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10-30-21 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -3 | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Wisconsin 12:00 PM ET Game# 117-118 Play On: Wisconsin -3.0 (5*) So let me make sure I get this right. We have an Iowa team that’s coming off a home upset 24-7 loss to Purdue at which time they were ranked #2, playing with a week of rest, and finds themselves as an underdog versus a 4-3 unranked Wisconsin team. If it smells like a rat, looks like a rat, then it’s a rat. The sportsbooks just aren’t that generous or kind. This is a classic example of when thinking like an oddsmaker will pay dividends. By the way, Wisconsin is coming off last Saturday’s easy 30-13 win at Purdue and held the Boilermakers to a mere 206 yards of total offense while also forcing 5 turnovers. Comparatively speaking, during Iowa’s home loss to Purdue 2 weeks ago they allowed the Boilermakers to rack up 464 yards of total offense. Bet Wisconsin minus the points. |
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10-29-21 | Clippers +3 v. Blazers | 92-111 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
LA Clippers @ Portland 10:10 PM ET Game# 569-570 Play On: LA Clippers +3.0 (5*) The Clippers are off to a disappointing 1-3 start to the season. However, their last win came this past Monday over Portland by a lopsided score 116-86. Since the start of the 2019-2020 NBA season, the Clippers are now 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS versus Portland. That’s a trend which is hard to ignore considering they are an underdog tonight. The Clippers will also look to rebound from an embarrassing 97-79 loss to Cleveland as a 8.5-point home favorite in their previous game. Any NBA away team with a point-spread of +3.0 to -3.0 that’s coming off a home favorite SU loss by 10 points or more and they failed to cover by 18.0 or more, resulted in those away teams going 16-1 SU&ATS over the past 4 seasons. Bet the Clippers plus the points. |
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10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves -105 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
Houston (Garcia) @ Atlanta (Anderson) 8:09 PM ET Game# 955-956 Play On: Atlanta -105 (10*) Despite a strong showing in his last outing, Luis Garcia has an awful 9.64 ERA and 1.61 WHIP this postseason in 3 starts. Although the Astros have enjoyed a plethora of success in recent season, they haven’t done well within this money line parameter in away game. Since 2019, Houston is a poor 30-47 on the road when their money line is +125 to -125, and $100 bettors who back them in those situations are down $1880. Atlanta is coming off a Game 2 loss on Wednesday. However, the Braves have gone an unbeaten 6-0 in their last 6 following a loss and won by an average of 3.3 runs per game. Atlanta pitcher Ian Anderson has gone 5-0 in his last 5 team starts with an excellent 2.16 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Atlanta has gone 7-0 in their last 7 at home when Ian Anderson is their starting pitcher. The Braves bullpen has a more than respectable 3.42 ERA during postseason action. Bet Atlanta for a Top Play wager. |
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10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals -6.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Green Bay @ Arizona 8: 20 PM ET PM ET Game# 107-108 Play On: Arizona -6.5 (5*) Aaron Rogers will be handcuffed tonight without his top target Davante Adams not available. All Adams has done through the first 7 games is haul in 52 pass receptions for 744 yards and average 14.3 yards per catch. Additionally, one of his secondary targets Alan Lazard will not dress as well. Rogers has been sacked a rather high 17 times this season and he’ll be facing an Arizona defense who’s sacked the quarterback 19 times. Additionally, despite their 6-1 record, you may be surprised to know that Green Bay ranks #23 in total offense while gaining only 337.9 yards per game. Conversely, Arizona is #4 in total defense after allowing just 316.7 yards per game through its first 7 contests. Not only have the Cardinals been stout defensively but they’re also dynamic offensively. It all starts with Kyler Murray who has passed for 2002 yards and 17 touchdowns while running for 3 scores as well. Through his first 2 plus NFL seasons, Murray has run for 1489 yards and 17 touchdowns. Arizona possesses the #4 scoring offense at 32.4 points scored per game and is #7 in total yards at 402.1 yards gained per contest. You can make a strong case that the Cardinals are the superior team on both sides of the ball in this matchup of 2 NFC heavyweights. Arizona is coming off a 31-5 win over Houston this past Sunday and covered as a huge 18.0-point home favorite. Any NFL Thursday home favorite of 6.0 or more that’s playing before Game 13 of the season, and they’re coming off a home favorite ATS win, resulted in those Thursday home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS since 1994 and they won by an average of 13.6 points per game. Bet Arizona minus the points. |
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10-28-21 | Knicks +1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
New York @ Chicago 8:10 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: New York +1.5 (10*) The Bulls have started the season 4-0 SU&ATS and looked outstanding in doing so. Yet, they find themselves as just a tiny favorite against a 3-1 Knicks team. When examining the Bulls resume thus far, they have posted wins over Toronto (2-3), New Orleans (1-4), and Detroit (0-3) 2 times. Those opponents currently have a combined 3-10 (.231) season record. I had the Knicks as a Top Play wager in their previous game within this same point-spread parameter, and they easily covered in a 14-point win over Philadelphia. Since 1/18/2021, New York has gone an extremely profitable 20-3 SU and 20-2-1 ATS in regular season games in which their point-spread is +2.5 to -2.5, and if their opponent is coming off a win, they improved to 9-1 SU and 9-0-1 ATS. The numbers don’t lie, and liars don’t figure. Bet on New York on any point-spread of +2.5 to -2.5 over Chicago for a Top Play wager. |
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10-27-21 | Braves +112 v. Astros | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
Atlanta (Fried) @ Houston (Urquidy) 8:09 PM ET Game# 953-954 Play On: Atlanta +112 (5*) The Astros Jose Urquidy will be making just his 3rd start in the last 30 days. His last outing was certainly a forgetful one at Boston during the ALCS when he allowed 5 earned runs in only 1 2/3 innings pitched. Max Fried is coming off a bad outing at Dodgers Stadium during the NLCS. However, that broke a streak of 14 consecutive quality starts for the Braves lefthander in which Atlanta went 12-2. As a matter of fact, if you eliminate his 2 starts at Dodger Stadium, Fried has gone 5-0 in his previous 5 on the road with a microscopic 0.24 ERA, and 2 of those appearances resulted in complete game shutouts. Atlant is averaging 10 hits per game in their last 6 and includes 12 in last night’s win. Bet Atlanta for a 5* money line wager. |
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10-27-21 | Pacers v. Raptors +1 | 100-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Indiana @ Toronto 7:40 PM ET Game# 533-534 Play On: Toronto +1.0 (5*) Since the start of last season, Indiana has gone 0-5 SU&ATS in conference road games when their point-spread was +2.5 to -2.5 and they lost by an average of 6.4 points per contest. This will be the 3rd road game of the season for Indiana and they’re 0-2 SU&ATS in the first 2 with both coming as a favorite. Indiana likes to play a high tempo offensive game and as a result they’ve allowed 119 points or more in 3 of their 4 games. Toronto is coming off home underdog ATS losses in each of their last 2 contests which dropped their season record to 1-3. However, since the start of the 1996-1997 NBA season, home teams that are playing in their first 6 games and are coming off home underdog ATS losses in each of their previous 2 outings, resulted in those home teams going 6-0 ATS and 5-1 SU. Granted it’s not a huge sample size and can surely be deemed as rare occurrences. Nonetheless, it’s impactful and usually prompts public betting to side with the road teams when it indeed arises. My experience leads me to believe that will indeed be the case again in this matchup. Going against the public is rarely a bad thing to do. By the way, the Raptors have gone 11-0 in their last 11 true home games versus Indiana. Bet on Toronto. |
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10-26-21 | Braves v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Braves (Morton) @ Astros (Valdez) 8:09 PM ET Game# 951-952 Play On: Over 8.0 (10*) Lefthander Framber Valdez has seen each one of his 3 postseason starts in 2021 go over the total. Valdez posted an uninspiring 1.40 WHIP during those outings. Furthermore, Valdez has pitched 9-1 to the over this season whenever there was a total of 7.0 to 8.5 and there was a combined average of 11.8 runs scored per game. Houston has played 8-2 to the over during postseason action while averaging an impressive 6.7 runs scored per game and compiled an excellent .342 team on-base-percentage. Atlanta has averaged a sizable 5.6 runs scored per game and belted 69 home runs in 45 games when facing lefthanded starting pitchers in 2021. Atlanta has played 4-1 to the over in their previous 5 and there was a combined average of 10.0 runs scored per game. Bet on this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager. |
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10-26-21 | 76ers v. Knicks -119 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
Philadelphia @ New York 7:40 PM ET Game# 519-520 Play On: New York -119 (10*) Since the start of the 2017-2018 season, the 76ers are a dominating 15-0 SU versus New York. Yet, they find themselves as an underdog in this contest which speaks volumes to me. The sportsbooks just aren’t that generous. The 76ers will be facing a Knicks team which has held their first 3 opponents to a combined 40.6% shooting. Since 2019-2020, Philadelphia has gone a dismal 1-10 SU on the road when facing opponents that have a defensive field goal percentage of 43.0 or less. The Knicks look to rebound from an embarrassing 110-104 loss to Orlando in a game they were a 12.0-point home favorite. Dating back to last season, the Knicks are still an excellent 12-2 SU in their last 14 regular season home games. Additionally, since last season, the Knicks have gone 15-1 SU and 15-0-1 ATS in their last 16 regular season home games when their point-spread was +2.5 to -2.5. Aince the starts of the 1996-1997 NBA season, any home team coming off a home double-digit favorite straight up loss by 10 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent coming off a road win by 16 points or less, resulted in those home teams going 32-2 (94.1%) on the money line. Bet New York on the money line for a Top Play wager. |
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10-24-21 | Bears v. Bucs -11.5 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
Chicago @ Tampa Bay 4:25 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Tampa Bay -11.5 (5*) One of my cardinal rules has been to never lay a double-digit number in the NFL. However, this is a rare exception. The Chicago offense has amassed more rushing yards than passing yards in each of their previous 5 games. That’s a real rarity in the modern-day NFL. That’s also an issue since the will be facing a Tampa Bay defense that’s #1 in the NFL against the run in allowing a mere 54.8 yards rushing per game. The Tampa run defense was also #1 against the run last season as well at 80.6 yards allowed per game. How about Chicago’s pass offense? Well, I’m glad you asked. Their averaging a pathetic 117.2 yards passing per game which is dead last in the NFL and by a substantial margin. The Bears have also allowed their quarterbacks to be sacked a league high 22 times. The Chicago defense is #7 in total defense. Nonetheless, against a relentless and explosive offensive attack that Tampa Bay possesses, they’ll get completely worn down as the game progresses. Additionally, since 2019 the Bears have gone 0-4 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14.0 and lost by an average of 17.0 points per game. This will be the 3rd time that Tampa Bay is a double-digit home favorite since 2019. They covered each of the previous 2 and won by a mammoth 25.5 points per game. The Bucs are 3-0 at home this season and outscored their opponents by a massive 29.3 points per game. They’ll be facing a Bears team that has averaged a paltry 13.3 points scored per game in 3 road contests. Bet Tampa Bay minus the points. |
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10-24-21 | Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 46 | Top | 41-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
Cincinnati @ Baltimore 1:00 PM ET Game# 451-452 Play On: Under 46.0 (10*) Cincinnati has seen each of its last 5 games go under the total and there was a combined 41.6 points scored per contest. Under current head coach Zack Taylor, Cincinnati has now played 10-2 to the under in Games 1 through 8 of their season and there was a combined 41.6 points scored per contest. Cincinnati has averaged only 9.0 points scored per contests in their last 4 meetings versus Baltimore, and 3 of those stayed under the total. The Bengals defense has played well this season while allowing 18.5 points and 331.5 yards per game. Cincinnati has played 3-0 to the under in road contests this season and held those opponents to just 13.7 points scored per game. Baltimore is coming off an impressive 34-6 home win over the Chargers. It was by far the best performance by the Ravens defense to date when considering the opponent. They held the explosive Chargers offense to just 208 yards. Since 2019, Baltimore has played 5-1 to the under at home following a game in which they allowed 14 points or fewer. Bet on this game to go under the total for a Top Play wager. |
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10-24-21 | Falcons -122 v. Dolphins | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Miami 1:00 PM ET Game# 459-460 Play On: Atlanta -122 (5*) You can make the case that picking a winner in this game comes down to the lesser of 2 evils. My take is there are other underlying factors that leans heavily toward the road favorite Falcons. For starters, Atlanta will be playing with a week of rest and is coming off a 27-20 win over the Jets in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. Atlanta outgained the Jets in total offense that contest by a decisive 450-230. On the other hand, Miami has lost 5 games in a row and hit rock bottom in last week’s 23-20 loss to a winless Jacksonville team. Furthermore, this is a mentally fragile Miami team. The front office is actively pursuing a trade to bring quarterback Deshaun Watson in via trade and Tua being included as part of a 3-team deal. Lastly, Miami wasn’t scheduled for a bye week after playing in Europe last week and that’s a rarity. Bet Atlanta on the money line at -140 or less or on the point-spread at -3.0 or fewer. |
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10-23-21 | Utah v. Oregon State +3 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
Utah @ Oregon State 7:30 PM ET Game# 373-374 Play On: Oregon State +3.0 (5*) Since starting the season 1-2, Utah has reeled off 3 straight wins and all came versus conference opponents. On the other hand, Oregon State will be in a sour mood after suffering a 31-24 upset loss at Washington State 2 weeks ago in a game they closed as a 4.5-point favorite. That defeat dropped their season record to 4-2 with their only other setback occurring at #25 Purdue 30-21 during their season opener. The Beavers are a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 21.0 points per game. Oregon State has rushed for 242 yards or more in each of their previous 5 games. The Beavers defense has held 4 of their 6 opponents to 92 yards or less rushing. After convincing wins over USC and Arizona State in their last 2 games, Utah will be vulnerable to come up flat on Saturday. Meanwhile, Oregon State had 2 weeks to prepare for this home contest. Bet on Oregon State plus the points. |
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10-23-21 | San Diego State v. Air Force -3 | 20-14 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
San Diego State @ Air Force 7:00 PM ET Game# 405-406 Play On: Air Force -3.0 (5*) We have an unranked Air Force team (6-1) as a favorite over #22 and undefeated San Diego State (6-0). With all due respected to those who vote in the national polls, but I will always trust the oddsmakers ability to post an accurate line compared their ability to rank teams, and especially so when it’s beyond the Top 10. Air Force will enter this game on a 4-game win streak. Any home team with a point-spread of +12.0 to -12.0 that’s coming off 3 or more wins in a row, and they’re facing an opponent (San Diego State) coming off 5 or more wins in a row, resulted in those home teams going 23-2 ATS and 22-3 SU since 2017. Bet on Air Force minus the small number. |
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10-23-21 | Nevada v. Fresno State -3.5 | 32-34 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
Nevada @ Fresno State 7:00 PM ET Game# 409-410 Play On: Fresno State -3.5 (5*) This is an unheralded but extremely intriguing game between 2 very good Mountain West Conference teams. However, I am more impressed with the Fresno State resume when comparing it to Nevada. Fresno State had a huge upset win at UCLA earlier this season as a double-digit dog and gave #10 Oregon all they can handle in a 31-24 road loss as an 18.0-point underdog. The Bulldogs will also be out to revenge losses to Nevada in each of the previous 2 seasons. Both teams can score a lot of points. Nevertheless, I like the defense of Fresno much better than that of Nevada’s, and that will be a key reason why we’ll cover this contest. Bet on Fresno State minus the points. |
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10-23-21 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -7 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State 3:30 PM ET PM ET Game# 383-384 Play On: Iowa State -7.0 (10*) The oddsmakers are begging you to take the underdog in this spot with all being considered. After all, we have #8 and undefeated Oklahoma State as a touchdown underdog against an unranked team Iowa State with a season mark of 4-2. The Cyclones have underachieved this season after being a preseason Top 10 team considered to be a legitimate college football playoff contender. However, they were knocked off at #11 Iowa (6-1) and at #20 Baylor (6-1). They won’t be a playoff team but remains a serious Big 12 title threat if the can win on Saturday. I said it before and I will say it again, Oklahoma State is a fraudulent Top 10 team. The Cowboys 6 wins this season have all come by 11 or fwer and by an average of 7.0 points per game. This is a classic example of me trusting the oddsmakers in setting an accurate line compared to pollsters ranking teams. Bet on Iowa State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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10-23-21 | Syracuse +3.5 v. Virginia Tech | 41-36 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
Syracuse @ Virginia Tech 12:30 PM ET Game# 341-342 Play On: Syracuse +3.5 (5*) I like the offensive identity since Syracuse inserted Garrett Schrader as their starting quarterback. They have become a run first team and they have executed that part of their game quite well. However, after a 3-1 start to the season, the Orange have dropped 3 games in a row. The silver lining is that each of those defeats came by exactly 3 points. Conversely, Virginia Tech is coming off a lopsided 28-7 home loss to Pittsburgh. Any college football road underdog of 4.0 or less (Syracuse) that’s coming off back-to-back losses by 6 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent (Virginia Tech) coming off a home loss by 21 points or more, resulted in those road underdogs going 13-0 ATS and 12-0-1 SU since 1982. Bet on Syracuse plus the points. |
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10-22-21 | Suns +1 v. Lakers | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Phoenix @ LA Lakers 10:10 PM ET Game# 547-548 Play On: Phoenix +1.0 (5*) The Lakers are coming off a 121-114 home loss to Golden State in their season opener in a game they closed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Any Game 2 NBA home team with a point-spread of +3.0 to -3.0 that’s coming off a home favorite SU loss in their season opener, resulted in those home teams going a dismal 0-10 SU&ATS since 2002. They lost those contests by an average of 14.8 points per game. Bet on Phoenix. |
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10-22-21 | Jazz v. Kings +6.5 | 110-101 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Utah @ Sacramento 10:05 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Sacramento +6.5 (5*) The Jazz will be feeling their oats after a home blowout 107-86 win over a terrible Oklahoma City team. They covered that game as a 13.5-point favorite which is an extremely high number for a season opener and speaks to how bad the oddsmakers think the Thunder is. Now Utah goes on the road to face a Sacramento team who they went 3-0 SU&ATS last season and won by 31.7 points per contest. You can forgive the Jazz for being a bit overconfident going into this contest. However, Sacramento is coming off a terrific performance in their season opening 124-121 win at Portland as a 6.5-point underdog. Any Game 2 favorite of 2.5 or greater that opened the season as a favorite of -10.0 or greater, versus an opponent off a straight up underdog win, resulted in those favorites going 0-6 ATS and 1-5 SU. Bet Sacramento plus the points. |
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10-22-21 | Raptors +6.5 v. Celtics | 115-83 | Win | 101 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
Toronto @ Boston 7:35 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Toronto +6.5 (5*) Boston is coming off a grueling 138-134 double overtime loss at New York in their season opener on Wednesday. Toronto looked terrible in their home opener on Wednesday in falling to Washington 98-83 in a game they shot a miserable 30.9% and committed 19 turnovers. NBA road underdogs coming off a game in which there was a combined 190 or fewer points scored, and they’re facing an opponent coming off a game in which there was a combined 235 or more points scored, resulted in those road underdogs going 28-6 ATS (82.3%) throughout the previous 5 season. The average point-spread in those 34 contests was 5.8 and the underdogs won straight up 16 times. Bet on Toronto plus the points. |
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10-21-21 | San Jose State v. UNLV +4 | 27-20 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
San Jose State @ UNLV 11:00 PM ET Game# 411-412 Play On: UNLV +4.0 (5*) San Jose State is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS on the road this season and averaged just 10.0 points scored per game. As a matter of fact, the Spartans have scored 17 points or fewer in 5 of their 6 games versus FBS opponents this season. UNLV is 0-6 thus far. However, they’ve shown vast improvement over their last 3 games. They lost all 3 of those contests by 8 points or fewer and against respectable opponents (Fresno State, UTSA, and Utah State). UNLV has played a far more difficult schedule than the one San Jose State has faced. This is the week the Rebels get over the hump. Bet UNLV plus the points. |
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10-21-21 | Braves +130 v. Dodgers | 2-11 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
Braves (Fried) @ Dodgers (Undecided) 8:08 ET Game# 811-812 Play On: Braves +130 (5*) The Dodgers have yet to name a starting pitcher in this matchup as of 1:45 PM ET. My educated guess is they’re going to do this by bullpen committee or ask one of their starting pitchers to go on short rest. Either was it’s not an ideal situation for the defending world champions. Especially considering they’ll be facing the Braves ace Max Fried. The Atlanta lefthander has been good all season long. However, over his last 5 starts he’s been overpoweringly dominant while posting an 0.77 ERA and averaged 7.0 innings pitched per outing. Fried has made 3 starts versus the Dodgers this season and compiled a brilliant 2.50 ERA. With an exception of Game 2 in this series, the Braves bullpen has been superb during postseason action. Atlanta has pounded out 10 hits or more in each of the previous 3 games. Bet the Braves as a money line underdog. |
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10-21-21 | Mavs v. Hawks -2.5 | 87-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Dallas @ Atlanta 7:40 PM ET Game# 527-528 Play On: Atlanta -2.5 (5*) Atlanta carries a ton of momentum into this season after last year’s surprisingly successful campaign. The Hawks ascended as last season progressed and that was especially apparent at home. The Hawks went 19-2 SU in their final 21 regular season home games. That includes winning their last 11 regular season home games in which they covered 10 of those contests. Any NBA Game 1 home team (Atlanta) that won 50 or more games a season ago, and they’re facing an opponent (Dallas) also playing in their season opener and who won 50 games or less the season before, and has won 27 or more of its past 82 away games, resulted in those home teams going a terrific 48-3 SU (94.1%) since 1995. Considering the small number we are being asked to cover, this powerful NBA straight up betting angle takes on added significance. Bet Atlanta minus the small number. |
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10-20-21 | Celtics v. Knicks UNDER 216.5 | 134-138 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
Celtics @ Knicks 7:35 PM ET Game# 511-512 Play On: Under 216.5 (5*) These teams met 3 times a season ago and each of those times games stayed under the total. Those games had combined scores of 188, 200, and 180. The offensive pace of those games was extremely slow by NBA standards. Both head coaches are back for another season, and I don’t foresee any drastic if any philosophical changes on the horizon. Bet this game to go under the total. |
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10-20-21 | Astros v. Red Sox -120 | 9-1 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Astros (Valdez) @ Red Sox (Sale) 5:08 PM ET Game# 915-916 Play On: Boston -120 (5*) Neither one of these starting pitchers have been sharp in recent starts. As a matter of fact, they’ve both been horrible during those outings. However, on occasion I lean on my professional intuition, and that leads me to believe that highly paid Chris Sales is going to pitch a gen tonight. You can make the case that Boston will be the more desperate team tonight since they don’t want to return to Houston down 3-2. Yesterday’s 9-2 final score in favor of Houston is a bit deceiving since The Red Sox led 2-1 entering the 8th inning. It was one of the rare occasions over the past 2 weeks in which the Red Sox bullpen let them down. Speaking of bullpen, Houston relief pitchers combined to pitch 7 2/3 innings yesterday after starter Zack Grienke was only able to record 4 outs. Finally, Boston has won 4 consecutive games immediately following a loss. Be the Red Sox for a money line wager. |
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10-19-21 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
Braves (Morton) @ Dodgers (Buehler) 5:08 PM ET Game# 913-914 Play On: Under 7.5 (10*) Charlie Morton has made 2 starts versus the Dodgers this season and posted a superb 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in those outings. This current Dodgers active roster has uninspiring career number of 33-153 (.216) when facing Charlie Morton. Morton has pitched 11-5-1 to the under in his road starts this season and with a stellar 2.96 ERA. The Atlanta bullpen has been outstanding throughout their previous 7 games while compiling a 1.20 ERA as a staff. Â Atlanta has seen all 3 of their games at Dodger Stadium this season all go under the total. Walker Buehler has been brilliant in 20 home starts this season with a 2.05 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Since the start of last season, Buehler has pitched 3-0 to the under in his starts versus Atlanta with a brilliant 1.50 ERA. The Dodger bullpen has been solid over their past 7 games while recording a staff 2.53 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +3.5 | 35-29 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
Dallas @ New England 4:25 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: New England +3.5 (5*) I have seen this scenario too many times over the past 20 years with Bill Belichick. He’s brilliant in devising successful defensive game plans when facing dominant and explosive offenses. The Cowboys offense certainly qualifies in the regard as they enter this week averaging 34.0 points scored and 439.6 yards gained per game. Despite their 2-3 record, New England still field a formidable defense that allows just 18.4 points and 317.4 yards per game. Conversely, Dallas has allowed 23.4 points and 390.4 yards per game. Nonetheless, those numbers could be much worse if it weren’t for the fact, they’ve forced 12 turnovers through 5 games. New England rookie quarterback Mack Jones and his offense will be able to move the ball on Dallas and will be extremely cognizant of the opposition’s uncanny ability to force turnovers. By the way, since 10/14/2021 and all with Belichick as their head coach, New England has gone 7-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog of 4.0 or less, and they won by a decisive average of 12.9 points per game.  I like New England to win this game outright but will gladly take the points as an additional bonus and not get greedy. Bet the Patriots plus the points. |
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10-17-21 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
Chargers @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET Game# 261-262 Play On: Ravens -2.5 (10*) Sometimes it’s just best to keep it simple. The Ravens have been of the best running teams in the NFL over the past few seasons. This year is no different as they’re averaging a robust 148.8 yards rushing per game. That’s good for 4th best in the league. Conversely, the Chargers are dead last in rushing yards allowed per contest at 157.6. As a matter of fact, during last Sunday’s win over Cleveland, they allowed the Browns to rush for 230 yards and average a massive 6.6 yards per carry. Additionally, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has been red hot in the air during the previous 2 games after going 59-80 (73.8%) and throwing for an enormous 741 yards. The Chargers are coming off a 47-42 win over Cleveland last week. Since 1980, there has been just 28 regular season games in which a team won while allowing 40 points or greater, and only 12 of those teams were installed as an underdog in their next game. When pairing that up with Baltimore coming off a 31-25 win over Indianapolis in their previous game, and it presents a rare and unbeaten NFL betting situation which is displayed below. Any NFL regular season underdog (Chargers) that’s coming off a win in which they allowed 40 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent (Ravens) that scored 28 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those underdogs going 0-7 SU&ATS since 1980. Those 7 underdogs lost by a decisive margin of 20.1 points per game. |
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