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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-15-17 | Giants +12 v. Broncos | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 58 h 4 m | Show | |
4* Giants/Broncos ATS HEAVY HITTER on Giants + The betting public is lining up to take the Broncos here at home on Sunday Night Football against a injury-plagued Giants team and it's resulted in a drastically inflated line that has created too much value on New York to pass up. The total here is just 39, so oddsmakers are expecting points to be hard to come by for both teams. That only adds value to this double-digit spread and the Giants ability to keep this close enough to cover. As bad as it looks for the Giants with all the injuries at wide receiver and the poor offensive line play, this team has found a way to remain competitive in their surprising 0-5 start. Eli Manning is no longer in his prime, but still an above-average QB that will make some plays here regardless of who he has to work with. The bigger key here is the Broncos don't have the offensive fire-power to be laying this many points. Denver has scored just 16 in their last 2 games. They won their last game against the Raiders by a final of 16-10 and the week before lost to the Bills 16-26. New York still has a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball and I expect the Giants stop unit to show up in a big way here in a prime time game with no body giving them a chance to win this game. Take New York! |
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10-15-17 | Rams v. Jaguars UNDER 44 | 27-17 | Push | 0 | 130 h 44 m | Show | |
3* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR  on Rams UNDER Who would have thought these two teams would be headed into Week 6 with a winning record, as both teams come in at 3-2. This is a huge game for both sides, as the winner moves to 4-2 and in good shape of making the playoffs, while the loser falls to 3-3 and has a lot of work left to do. I expect the intensity level to be high and while the offenses have shined at times for both sides, I expect the defenses to be the story in this one. Jacksonville's defense has carried them to their strong start. Jacksonville comes in ranked 2nd in scoring defense, giving up just 16.6 ppg. Their strength has been their secondary, which is 3rd in the league, allowing only 177.8 ypg. This Rams team is built more on their passing attack, even with the talent Todd Gurley in the backfield. Los Angeles' defense had struggled early under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, but it was just a matter of time before they got it figured out. It started in the 2nd half against Dallas, where they held the Cowboys to just 6 points and continued last week against the Seahawks. A big reason for the turnaround was Phillips decision to move nose tackle Michael Brockers to defensive end to make way for rookie Tanzal Smart to take over at nose. Phillips also benched starting safety Maurice Alexander (since been released) in favor of rookie John Johnson. I fully expect this defense to continue to play well and the Jaguars are far from an explosive offensive team. UNDER is 35-17-1 in the Rams last 53 road games, 10-2 in their last 12 road games after the 1st month of the season and 9-2 in their last 11 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! |
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10-15-17 | 49ers v. Redskins -9.5 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -105 | 134 h 16 m | Show |
5* NFL Situational GAME OF THE MONTH on Redskins - I'm not the least bit concerned about laying this big number with Washington at home in Week 6. This is not only an ideal spot to back the Redskins, but also a perfect situation to fade the 49ers. Washington comes in at just 2-2, but there two losses have come against the Eagles and Chiefs. Two teams who are currently a combined 10-1 on the season. The Redskins were right there with a chance to win both. The last time out was a 20-29 loss at KC on Monday Night Football, a game they likely would have won had Dotson been able to hold on to a TD grab late in the 4th quarter. Taking that defeat into the bye will have the Redskins chomping at the bit to get back on the field for this one. As for the 49ers, they quick turnaround some where hoping for in the first year under new head coach Kyle Shanahan hasn't happened. San Francisco has started out 0-5 and while they have been competitive in their last 4, they are in a dreaded spot here playing their third straight game on the road. Making it even harder on the 49ers is the fact that they are a west coast team having to travel across the country for an early start time against the Redskins. I think they struggle to show up for this one and expect this to turn into a blowout early. San Francisco has struggled over the last 3 years against good offensive teams, who average 5.65 or more yards/play. The 49ers are just 3-11 ATS vs these teams and have lost these contests by an average of 12.7 ppg. Redskins are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs a team with a losing record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss. Take Washington! |
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10-15-17 | Lions v. Saints -4 | 38-52 | Win | 100 | 134 h 42 m | Show | |
4* Lions/Saints NFL VEGAS INSIDER on Saints - I don't feel the Saints are getting the respect they deserve here at home coming off their bye. New Orleans started off 0-2, but that wasn't a big surprise. They had to open the season on the road on Monday Night Football against the Vikings and they caught the Patriots, who were coming off that ugly loss to the Chiefs in Week 1 and NE had extra time to prepare. The Saints have responded in a big way. First winning in convincing fashion on the road against a very good Carolina team 34-13 and then most recently a 20-0 shutout win over the Dolphins in London. A big reason for the quick turnaround has been the play of a vastly improved defense and given all the young talent they possess on that side of the ball, there's every reason to think they can keep playing well. The key here is they catch the Lions at the right time. Detroit is banged up and it starts with quarterback Matthew Stafford, who is dealing with an ankle injury. He's listed as probable, but his mobility figures to be hampered. At the same time, the offensive line for Detroit is  a mess right now. They have given up a ridiculous 12 sacks over their last 2 games (6 each) and figure to struggle again. It wasn't that long ago the Saints had one of the best home field advantages in the NFL and there's a big emphasis on turning the Superdome back to a place where opposing teams fear coming to play. New Orleans is an impressive 12-4 ATS under head coach Sean Payton after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games and 30-10 under Payton vs high-scoring teams that come in averaging 24+ ppg. The Saints are also an impressive 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off a bye and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a cover last time out. Take New Orleans! |
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10-15-17 | Packers v. Vikings +3 | Top | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 51 h 46 m | Show |
5* NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Vikings + Minnesota shouldn't be a dog at home to the Packers, but since Green Bay is such a public team and off 3 straight wins and two consecutive covers, including that big comeback win last week against the Cowboys, this line has been inflated with the books knowing the public will continue to back Aaron Rodgers and the Packers no matter the cost. Another reason this line is what it is, is because starting quarterback Sam Bradford has been ruled out for this game. The thing is, Case Keenum has played extremely well in replace of Bradford and really sparked the offense once he came in for an injured Bradford last week against the Bears. Keenum is completing 65% of his passes and most importantly has taken care of the football with a 4-0 TD-INT ratio. Keenum gets to take on a banged up Packers secondary that is without starting safety Morgan Burnett and corner Kevin King. Fellow starting corner Davon House is also questionable. Another player that has stepped up on offense is Jerick McKinnon, who has taken over for the injured Dalvin Cook. McKinnon put up 95 yards on 16 attempts against a good Bears run defense and is averaging 4.7 yards/carry (Cook was averaging 4.8 ypc). He should be able to keep it going here against a Green Bay defense that ranks 22nd against the run, allowing 121.4 ypg. I also like this Minnesota defense against the Packers offense, which continues to deal with injuries on the offensive line. Rodgers will make some plays, but with the running game figuring to struggle against this stout Vikings front 7, I think the Vikings stop unit makes enough plays to win this one outright. Vikings are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 home games with a 9-1 ATS record in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning record. Take Minnesota! |
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10-15-17 | 49ers v. Redskins UNDER 46.5 | 24-26 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
3* NFL Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Redskins/49ers UNDER Late add here on the total in Sunday's early game between the 49ers and Redskins. I really like what I have seen from this Washington defense. They rank inside the Top 10 in total defense (311.3 ypg) and are 13th in scoring defense (22.8 ppg). Keep in mind they have given up two fumble return for TDs in the final minutes of two of their games to hurt that scoring average. You also can't overlook that they have played 4 of the better offensive teams in the Eagles, Raiders (w/ Carr), Rams and Chiefs. San Francisco is by far the worst offense they have faced in 2017. The 49ers have faced 2 defenses that I think are close to on par with the Redskins and that's the Panthers and Seahawks. They totaled just 12-points in the two games combined. They also had just 15 against the Cardinals. Just not enough fire-power for the 49ers. I also think they come out flat here offensively with this being their 3rd straight game on the road and Washington off a bye. Key here is that San Francisco's defense should be able to do enough here to keep Washington from putting up a huge number and pushing this over the mark. Note that the Redskins offense isn't quite as dynamic this year, as they have put a little more focus on ball control and running the football. Washington ranks 7th in rushing at 130 ypg. Last year they were 21st at 106 ypg. Take the UNDER! |
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10-14-17 | Oregon v. Stanford OVER 58.5 | 7-49 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 56 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Stanford OVER The books have completely missed the mark here in Saturday's Pac-12 showdown between Stanford and Oregon. I believe the reason this total is so low is the fact that the Ducks offense was a no show last week against Washington State without starting quarterback Justin Herbert. Oregon managed just 10 points and 277 total yards. Not a big surprise when you look back at it. The Cougars have an elite defense and took full advantage of the fact that Oregon had to start a true freshman in Braxton Burmeister. Last week backup Tayler Alie wasn't available, but he's good to go and wouldn't be shocked if he started. Either way, I expect Burmeister to play well if he gets the nod. That's because the Ducks will have a much easier time moving the ball on the ground against a struggling Stanford defense. This is not your typical Cardinal stop unit, as they come in ranked 91st against the run (182.0 ypg) and 101st against the pass (251.8 ypg). Oregon still ranks 19th in the country in rushing at 239.3 ypg and had scored at least 35 in each of their previous 5 games. It won't just be the Ducks scoring early and often, Stanford's offense has come to life with sophomore K.J. Costello getting more reps at quarterback. They also have the nation's best running back in Bryce Love, who comes into this game with 1,240 rushing yards, which is almost 250 more yards than the next best. While Oregon's defense is improved from last year, they have allowed 30+ to the likes of Nebraska, Arizona State and Washington State. Expect Stanford to do the same. OVER is 10-1-1 in Oregon's last 11 following a double-digit loss at home and 45-19-2 in their last 66 off a loss by more than 20. OVER is also 5-0 in the Cardinal's last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take the OVER! |
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10-14-17 | Texas A&M v. Florida -3 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
4* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida - I like the value here with needing the Gators to simply win by more than a field goal at home against Texas A&M. Florida came up on the short end of the stick in last week's 16-17 home loss to LSU, where the difference in the game was a missed extra point. I expect a pissed off Gators team to take the field with the mentality of not dropping another game in the swamp. Note that loss to the Tigers was only the second home defeat Florida has suffered under Jim McElwain. While the Gators will be chomping at the bit to take the field in this one, Texas A&M enters this game in a prime letdown spot, as they just put everything they had into last week's home game against Alabama. Note it's not been good for the Aggies in their next conference game after playing Alabama the last two years. In 2015 they lost 23-3 at Ole Miss as a mere 5-point dog and last year lost 28-35 at Mississippi State as a 10-point favorite. On top of that, Texas A&M has had trouble rebounding from any loss when it comes to covering the spread, as they are just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games following a loss. They are also just 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 vs a team with a winning record and only 18-46-1 ATS in their last 65 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Take Florida! |
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10-14-17 | UTSA v. North Texas UNDER 61 | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 108 h 52 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on North Texas UNDER The books have set the total too high for Saturday's C-USA showdown between UTSA and North Texas. The Roadrunners joined C-USA in 2013 and these two teams have been in the same division. Each of the previous 4 meetings have not seen more than 61 points and I expect that trend to continue. This is a big time game for the Mean Green, as most have labeled UTSA as the team to beat in the West. I expect a big time effort here from North Texas at home in this spot, especially with the game being played under the lights. The Roadrunners come in averaging 35.2 ppg, but most of the damage came against a couple of bad teams. They scored 51 on Southern and 44 against Texas State. They only managed 17 in their opener against Baylor and just 29 last week against Southern Miss. I think North Texas can keep them around that 30 point mark. As for UTSA's defense, it's been really good to start the season. In fact, the Roadrunners come in ranked 9th in the nation, giving up just 270 ypg and a mere 4.8 yards/play. It's by far the best defense the Mean Green have seen outside of Iowa, who they only managed 14 points against. UNDER is 15-5 in North Texas' last 20 games off a conference win by 10 or more and 10-1 in their last 11 when they come in having won two straight against conference opponents. Take the UNDER! |
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10-14-17 | Tulane -13 v. Florida International | 10-23 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 10 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Tulane I like the value here with Tulane laying less than two touchdowns on the road against FIU. The Green Wave are off to a strong 3-2 start to the season with the only losses coming at Oklahoma and by just 2-points on the road to Navy. Tulane is 4-1 ATS with the only non-cover against the Sooners where they were simply outmatched. While the Green Wave have been a very profitable bet so far, I still think this team is flying under the radar after going just 4-8 last year. The thing is, this is one of the most improved teams in the country in year two under head coach Willie Fritz and I fully expect them to continue to be a strong bet the remainder of this season. FIU is not a good football team and like Tulane last year, are in the midst of a major rebuilding phase in the first year under head coach Butch Davis, who like Fritz has done, will get this program turned around. Just not this year. The Golden Panthers come with an identical 3-2 record to the Green Wave, but the three wins have all come against bad teams and they struggled to win all 3. FIU held on for a 17-10 win at home over FCS foe Alcorn State, edged out a horrible Rice team 13-7 and barely squeaked by Charlotte 30-29. The Panthers are just 1-4 ATS and will struggle to keep this close. FIU's defense is no match for Tulane's elite rushing attack. The Green Wave come in 8th in the country averaging 293 ypg. FIU is giving up 170 ypg and nearly 4.5 yards/carry. The Panthers defense will be on the field a ton and simply don't have the offense to keep pace. Take Tulane! |
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10-14-17 | Auburn v. LSU +7 | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 105 h 0 m | Show |
5* No Limit SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU I really like the value here with LSU catching a touchdown on their home field against Auburn. LSU bounced back in a big way from that ugly loss at home to Troy with a 17-16 win on the road over Florida, who came in at 3-0 in SEC play. LSU desperately needed that win to get their confidence back up and I look for them to carry over that momentum with their best effort of the season at home against a Top 10 opponent. Auburn comes in having won 4 straight with three straight blowout wins inside conference play. The thing is, one was on the road against a bad Missouri team and the other two were at home against Mississippi State and Ole Miss, who are both bottom tier teams in the SEC. I believe it has Auburn way overvalued here on the road in one of the most hostile environments in the country. I know the Auburn defense has been playing lights out, but don't underestimate this LSU defense. They come in ranked 18th in the country, giving up just 309 ypg. The closest defense Auburn has seen this year is Clemson and they managed just 6 points and a mere 117 yards of total offense. LSU isn't on Clemson's level, but that's a good sign that they can keep Auburn in check. Keep in mind points become that much more valuable in a lower scoring game. LSU is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in the month of October, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous contest and the home team is a dominant 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in the series. Take LSU! |
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10-14-17 | Oklahoma v. Texas UNDER 65.5 | 29-24 | Win | 100 | 64 h 51 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma UNDER I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the total in Saturday's Red River Rivalry between Oklahoma and Texas. I just feel the total here has been inflated given the fact that Oklahoma has allowed 41 to Baylor and 38 to ISU in their last two games, as well as the fact that Texas is coming off a high-scoring game against Kansas State. Not to mention these two combined for 85 in last year's matchup. Each of the previous 3 meetings in the series all had a combined score of 57 or less and I think that's a lot closer to what the total should be in this one. I know these two teams have some big time weapons on offense, but a game of this magnitude almost always sides to the defense. Despite the poor showings of late, Oklahoma comes in ranked 44th in total defense and Texas is sitting at 42nd. This is still the same Sooners defense that held Ohio State's potent offense to just 16 points earlier this season. I think they went in with big heads against the Bears and Cyclones, but will be 100% locked in here, especially off that unthinkable upset loss at home to ISU. Keep Texas' offense wasn't great in their previous two games, scoring just 24 against USC and a mere 17 on the road against Iowa State. UNDER is 11-3 in the Longhorns last 14 when coming into a game off a win and a perfect 7-0 the last two years after playing their previous two against conference opponents. UNDER is also 21-7 in Texas' last 28 against a team with a winning record and 5-1 in the Sooners last 6 games played on a neutral field. Take the UNDER! |
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10-13-17 | Washington State v. California +14 | 3-37 | Win | 100 | 88 h 41 m | Show | |
3* Wash St/Cal Friday Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cal I like the value here with Cal as a two touchdown home dog against the Cougars. Washington State comes into this one off two huge wins. First they knocked off USC at home on a Friday night prime time game and they followed it up by going on the road at night and beating Oregon. I think it will be tough for them to bring that same intensity on the road a second straight week against a Cal team that has lost 3 straight and fresh off an ugly 38-7 loss at Washington, where they were outgained by 284 yards. I wasn't surprised to see the Bears struggle in that game against a very good Washington team, as they had nothing left in the tank after playing Ole Miss, USC and Oregon the previous 3 games. They won't have any problem here getting up for a home night game against a Top 10 opponent. Cal only lost to USC at home by 10 earlier this season and while I don't see them winning this one, I think they will be able to keep it close the whole way. Washington State comes in having covered 4 straight, but are just 16-33 ATS in their last 49 games when they come in having covered 4 out of their last 5. Cougars head coach Mike Leach is also just 4-13 ATS in his coaching career when his team is playing on the road and riding a 3 game or more winning streak. Take Cal! |
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10-13-17 | Yankees +163 v. Astros | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
3* Yankees/Astros Game 1 BEST BEST on Yankees + I think the long layoff for Houston hurts them against a Yankees team that couldn't be playing with more confidence after taking 3 straight to overcome a 0-2 deficit in the ALDS agains the Indians. I know Keuchel has owned the Yankees, but he hasn't been going deep in games. Only went 5 2/3 in his only start against Boston and had allowed just 1 run and 3 hits. His control has also been off, as he walked 3 Red Sox hitters. I think New York can sneak a couple runs against him. The key here is Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka and can he keep the Astros lineup in check. I think the can. He's been throwing well of late and was sensational in the pivotal Game 3 against Cleveland, allowing just 3 hits over 7 shutout innings. I also think the longer than normal rest between games is also a disadvantage for the hitters. Add in the value we are getting with these odds and I think it's a no brainer what side you should be playing in Game 1. Take New York! |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers UNDER 46 | 28-23 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 10 m | Show | |
4* Eagles/Panthers TNF Total NO BRAINER on Panthers UNDER While we have two good offenses run by two of the better QBs in the NFL, I think it will the defenses that dictate this one. I also feel the number on the total is inflated given that the Eagles have gone OVER in 3 of their last 4 and the Panthers have went OVER in each of their last 3. A lot of that had to do with who these teams played. The Eagles are only giving up 19.8 ppg and the strength of their defense is stopping the run. Philadelphia ranks 2nd in the league, giving up just 62.8 ypg. Carolina is a team that would much rather run the ball, but haven't had a ton of success because of a shaky offensive line. I expect Cam to make some plays, but there's going to be a lot of drives that don't result in points. I see a similar story for the Eagles' offense, as they go up against a really talented Carolina defense that has really played well to start the season. The Panthers rank 6th in run defense, giving up just 80 ypg and are 5th against the pass, allowing only 194 ypg. Add in the fact that are playing at home in a prime time game and the defense should be even better than normal, as they feed off the energy of the crowd. UNDER is 39-17 in the Eagles last 56 games after a contest where they scored 30 or more. It's also 18-4 in the Panthers last 22 off a close road win by 3 points or less and 9-1 in their last 10 home games after allowing 50 or less rushing yards. Take the UNDER! |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
5* Eagles/Panthers TNF Vegas BEST BET on Panthers - I really like the value here with Carolina laying only a field goal at home against the Eagles. Both of these teams are off to a strong start, as each is sitting at 4-1. I'm just not sold on Philadelphia being the cream of the crop in the NFC, as they have padded their record over the last 3 weeks against the Giants, Charger and Cardinals, who are all off to miserable starts. Carson Wentz is getting a ton of praise right now, but he's about to face his toughest challenge of the season in this Carolina defense. The Panthers are rock solid against both the run and the pass. They are 6th in run defense, giving up just 80 ypg and 5th against the pass, allowing only 194 ypg. Add in the fact that are playing at home in a prime time game and the defense should be even better than normal, as they feed off the energy of the crowd. Wentz is also a guy that will try to force the football into tight spots and I think he has a couple costly turnovers here. The Panthers offense got off to a slow start, as Newton just wasn't right to start the season with that shoulder injury. He looks to have it back to near 100% and has really taken off the last two games, throwing for more than 300 yards on the road against the Patriots and Lions. It won't be as easy against the Eagles defense, but I'm confident he will make enough plays here to get the win and cover. When Carolina gets rolling they tend to keep covering. The Panthers are 12-4 ATS under Rivera when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. They are also an impressive 32-13 ATS under Rivera after playing their previous game on the road. Eagles on the other hand are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 away from home. Take Carolina! |
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10-11-17 | South Alabama +17 v. Troy | 19-8 | Win | 100 | 37 h 9 m | Show | |
4* S Alabama/Troy Sun Belt VEGAS INSIDER on South Alabama + I like the value here with the Jaguars in this in-state rivalry matchup against Troy. This line has been inflated big time on the Trojans, as they come in off arguably their biggest win in program history in a 24-21 outright win at LSU as a 20.5-point underdog. That puts Troy into a big time letdown spot here and that should be more than enough for South Alabama to keep this within the number. Keep in mind that Troy had started out 0-4 ATS before they covered against LSU, as they came into this season getting a ton of respect from the books after last year's 10-win season. The books know the public will jump right back on them after a big win, so we are getting the best price here on South Alabama. The numbers on both sides of the ball don't look great for the Jaguars, but they have played a brutal schedule to this point with games against Ole Miss, Oklahoma State and Louisiana Tech. South Alabama head coach Joey Jones has a history of getting his team to deliver against the spread in this spot, as the Jaguars are 13-4 ATS in road game in the first half of the season since he took over at South Alabama. Troy on the other hand hasn't performed well against bad teams, as they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take South Alabama! |
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10-11-17 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 7.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
3* Yankees/Indians MLB Total DOMINATOR on Yankees UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's total for Game 5 of the ALDS between the Yankees and Indians. Not only do we have a great starting pitching matchup with C.C. Sabathia facing off against Corey Kluber, but conditions for this contest will favor both of these starters. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 60s with winds up to 15 mph blowing straight in from right field. Sabathia started Game 2 in Cleveland and pitched well enough to win, allowing just 2 earned runs on 7 hits over 5 1/3 innings. He's now 7-3 with a 3.19 ERA in 15 road starts and owns a strong 2.65 ERA in his last 3 outings. Kluber had a clunker in Game 2 opposing Sabathia, giving up 6 runs in just 2 2/3 innings, but that only makes me like his chances of throwing well tonight that much more. Kluber is still 10-2 with a 2.22 ERA in 17 home starts. UNDER is 15-5-1 in Sabathia's last 21 starts against a team with a winning record and is 6-1 in Klubers last 7 home starts and 10-3 in his last 13 starts on 4 days of rest. Take the UNDER! |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears +4 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
3* Vikings/Bears MNF ATS 'ANNIHILATOR' on Bears + Chicago is not getting near the respect they deserve here at home against a division rival. Even with the Vikings getting back their starting QB in Sam Bradford and the Bears turning to rookie Mitchell Trubisky. While Bradford is an upgrade over backup Case Keenum, I don't think it's as significant as people think. The even bigger issue is the Vikings offense took a major hit with the loss of rookie running back Dalvin Cook. He was averaging 4.8 yards/carry with 4 runs of 20+ yards. Keenum has the next best average at a mere 3.0 yards/carry. Backups Latavius Murray (2.7 ypc) and Jerick McKinnon (2.6 ypc) are both under 3.0 yards. That's going to let Chicago's defense focus on taking away the passing game and putting pressure on Bradford. To a lot of people's surprise, the Bears come in ranked 6th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 306.3 ypg, including the 8th ranks run defense. What's really killed the Bears in their 1-3 start was the play of Glennon at QB. I absolutely love the move to Trubisky, who showed some real positive signs in the preseason. He can't be any worse than what Glennon was providing the offense and if he plays well this unit could take off with those two talented backs in Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. I'll gladly take the points here, but I fully expect the Bears to win this game outright. Take Chicago! |
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10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans +1 | 42-34 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 21 m | Show | |
4* Chiefs/Texans SNF 'NO BRAINER' on Texans + Big time value here with the Texans getting points at home in prime time on Sunday Night Football.  The Chiefs are getting a ton of love from the books right now, as they are the only undefeated team left in the NFL and are a perfect 4-0 ATS. The public has fallen in love with this team and now is the time to look the other way. If Houston was still starting Tom Savage, this wouldn't be a play. Deshaun Watson has finally got the Texans offense producing at the level needed to be taken seriously. The last few years the defense has had to carry this team. Now they are playing more complimentary football and shouldn't be a dog on their home field. Not only are the Chiefs overvalued right now, this is a bad spot for KC, who is playing on short rest after the big win over the Redskins on Monday Night Football. Note the Chiefs are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 when playing on Sunday after MNF. KC is also dealing with some big injuries. Three key guys who were questionable are out. That includes two interior starting linemen (not good against this Texans front) and one of their best pass rushers in Dee Ford. Ford is a big loss for a defense that is already playing without All-Pro safety Eric Berry. This defense has some holes and will allow teams to move the ball on them. I just see enough big plays by Watson and the offense at home. Take Houston! |
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10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -3 | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 45 h 40 m | Show | |
3* NFL Situational ATS 'ANNIHILATOR' on Bengals - We are getting great value here with Cincinnati as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Bills on Sunday. On one side we have a Buffalo team that is way overvalued right now after back to back wins over the Broncos and Falcons. The most recent coming as a 8-point dog in Atlanta. The Bills have quickly went from a team the public was looking to fade to one they want to back. As for the Bengals, this team couldn't have looked much worse in the first two weeks of the season, as the offense failed to score a single touchdown in those two games and both of them were at home. The thing is, the talent is there and they have looked a heck of a lot better since firing their OC. They really should have won in Green Bay in Week 3 and last week cruised to a 24-point win on the road against a division rival in the Browns. Defense has really saved the Bills in their 3-1 start and I think they have a tough time here off that huge road win over the Falcons and they have to be running on fumes with this their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. Buffalo also lost a key piece to their defense in linebacker Ramon Hunter and could e without starting corner E.J. Gaines here. Cincinnati's defense has been playing great and should have no trouble stopping this Bills attack. Bengals should have the much easier time moving the ball and simply aren't getting enough respect here at home. Take Cincinnati! |
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10-08-17 | Panthers +3 v. Lions | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 45 h 39 m | Show |
5* NFL Vegas Insider 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Panthers + I love the value here with Carolina as a road dog against the Lions. The Panthers were already playing Super Bowl caliber defense early on and they got the offense rolling last week in their 33-30 upset win over the Patriots as a 9-point dog. I look for Carolina to keep that momentum going against the Lions. Carolina is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after totaling 350 or more total yards and I think we see a big game here out of Cam Newton after all the negative publicity he's received from his comments in the media. This Detroit defense has been very fortunate early on, as they have forced 11 turnovers in 4 games, 3 time recording 3 or more. On the flip side, they have only turned it over 2 times. I'm willing to be that starts to even out. I really think we see some turnovers by the offense in this one, as the Panthers are too talented and couldn't be more due after not forcing a single turnover in their last 3 games. Backing this up is the fact that the Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams that are forcing 2.75 or more turnovers/game. Detroit is stil just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning record and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing less than 15 points in their previous contest. Take Carolina! |
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10-07-17 | Arizona +7 v. Colorado | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 97 h 3 m | Show |
5* NCAAF No Limit 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Arizona + I really like the value here with the Wildcats catching a full touchdown on the road against the Buffaloes. I actually think this line should be a lot closer to a field goal and I'm fully expecting Arizona to win this game outright. The Wildcats lost 24-30 to Utah back on 9/22 in a game they had to feel like they should have won. Arizona outgained the Utes 448 to 341. The difference in the game being they turned it over 5 times. That loss couldn't have set well over their bye week and I expect a well rested and focused Wildcats team in this one. The key here is they are catching Colorado at the perfect time. The Buffaloes are coming off two huge games against Washington and UCLA. I wouldn't be shocked if they came out a bit flat here, as won by 25 at Arizona last year. I think the key matchup here will be Arizona's defense against an underachieving Colorado offense. To only score 23 points against that Bruins defense is concerning. They also had just 10 points against Washington at home and only 17 against Colorado State. Arizona's defense is only giving up 22.3 ppg and are much improved on that side of the ball. The Wildcats offense is averaging over 40 ppg and is 25th in total offense at 479 ypg. Arizona should have the much easier time moving the ball here and that makes them an easy play at this line. Take Arizona! |
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10-07-17 | SMU v. Houston -6.5 | 22-35 | Win | 100 | 50 h 18 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Prime Time ATS 'ANNIHILATOR' on Houston - I think we are getting  a great price here with the Cougars laying less than a touchdown against the Mustangs. Keep in mind Houston was a 23-point road favorite over SMU a year ago. The Mustangs won that game and I can assure you the 15 returning starters and other lettermen for Houston haven't forgot about the feeling of losing that game. The Cougars aren't going to let the Mustangs upset them two years in a row and I actually think they win this game going away. A big reason this spread isn't double-digits, is because you have SMU coming into this game with a perfect 5-0 ATS record. The public loves to jump on these teams who cover every game early and that's when the books really turn the odds against those teams. Another thing with SMU, who is 4-1 SU, is they have played a very easy schedule. Their 4 wins are against the likes of SF Austin, North Texas, Arkansas St and UConn. The loss where they covered was a 20-point defeat against TCU, where they were catching 22. Houston is a team that I think is flying under the radar, even after a 3-1 start, as most people just wrote off this team after they lost head coach Tom Herman to Texas. The Cougars offense should have a field day here against a really bad SMU defense. The Mustangs rank 128th in the country against the pass, giving up 325 ypg, so expect a number of big plays and quick scores for the Cougars. Take Houston! |
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10-07-17 | Georgia State v. Costal Carolina +2 | 27-21 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 45 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Vegas 'ODDSMAKERS ERROR' on Coastal Carolina + I'm taking the Chanticleers as a short home dog Saturday against the Panthers. Coastal Carolina is in the first year as a member of the Sun Belt and are more the capable of competing against the bottom tier of that conference. That's were Georgia State lies, as the Panthers lost at home to Tennessee State earlier this season. This is also a great matchup for the Chanticleers, who featured a run first offense, which comes in ranked 38th at 207.5 ypg. Georgia State is 80th against the run allowing 166.0 ypg and are giving up 5 yards/carry. This is also an offense that Coastal Carolina's defense can contain. The Panthers are 113th in rushing at 106 ypg and a mere 78th in passing. They rank 115 out of 130 FBS teams in total offense and 116th in scoring at just 19 ppg. Take Coastal Carolina! |
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10-07-17 | Florida Atlantic v. Old Dominion +4.5 | 58-28 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 3 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF No Doubt 'ATS BLOWOUT' on Old Dominion + The books have the wrong team favored here. This line is a result of Old Dominion coming in off a couple of ugly losses to UNC and Virginia Tech, while FAU enters off a 38-20 blowout win at home over Middle Tennessee. This Owls team is one the public has been on early, as they look to back Lane Kiffin and his strong coaching staff. The thing is, the Monarchs won convincingly last year 42-24 and had more than 600 yards of total offense. They were also a 8.5-point favorite on the road for that contest, which is further evidence they shouldn't be a dog at home. The Monarchs have also been a covering machine against teams like FAU that own a losing record. Old Dominion is a perfect 6-0 the last 2 seasons when playing a team with a losing record and have won these matchups by an average of 20 ppg. Take Old Dominion! |
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10-07-17 | UL-Lafayette +7.5 v. Idaho | 21-16 | Win | 100 | 94 h 4 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Situational 'UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG' on Lafayette + I like the value here with the Ragin' Cajuns catching over a touchdown here against the Vandals. Lafayette isn't going to overlook Idaho. In fact, they will be out for revenge from last year's double-digit loss at home. Last time out the Ragin' Cajuns lost at home to ULM as a 4-point favorite and that puts them in a very profitable spot. Louisiana is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off an upset loss as a home favorite. They are also 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games under head coach Hudspeth after playing the previous game against a conference opponent. I look for Lafayette offensive attack to the be the difference in this one. The Ragin' Cajuns come in ranking in the top 60 in the country in both rushing and passing and are 40th overall. Idaho ranks outside the Top 65 in both rushing and passing and 82nd overall. I actually think we could see the Ragin' Cajuns win the game outright, which is why I think there's such great value with this spread. Take UL-Lafayette! |
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10-07-17 | Western Michigan -6.5 v. Buffalo | 71-68 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 27 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Small Conference 'GAME OF THE WEEK' on Western Michigan - We are getting some big time value here with the Broncos laying less than a touchdown against the Bulls. I believe it's a direct result of Buffalo coming into this one with a perfect 5-0 record against the spread. While Western Michigan has won 3 straight, they are just 1-3 ATS in their last 4, failing to cover against bad teams like Idaho and Wagner. The thing is, the Broncos are coming off an excellent showing in their conference opener, as they destroyed Ball State 55-3. I know this program lost a great coach in P.J. Fleck, as well as great talent from last year's team, but there's still a ton of really good players on this roster and I fully expect them to defend their MAC title this season. Plenty of reason to believe the Broncos will be able to move the ball against the Bulls defense. Western Michigan comes in with the 36th ranked rushing attack in the nation at 209.0 ypg, which is pretty impressive given two of their games were against USC and Michigan State. Buffalo has the  109th ranked run defense, allowing teams 208.8 ypg and that's with their toughest opponent to date being Minnesota. Note the Bulls also have the 88th ranked offense in the country against that soft schedule, while the Broncos have the 41st ranked defense. Western Michigan won 38-0 last year and while I don't foresee another shutout on the road, I think they have no problem here winning by double-digits. Take Western Michigan! |
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10-07-17 | Minnesota v. Purdue UNDER 46.5 | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 31 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'DOMINATOR' on Purdue UNDER The books have set the bar too high on the total for Saturday's Big Ten matchup between Minnesota and Purdue. The Gophers were just upset at home by Maryland 31-24 for their first loss of the season. It was almost as if Minnesota didn't take the Terps seriously because they were down to a 3rd string QB that really struggled in their previous game. Fleck knows how to get the troops ready and he will have had the Gophers full attention in practice this week. I look for Minnesota to really come out strong on the defensive side of the ball. Keep in mind this defense had allowed a total of 24 points in their first 3 games combined. Purdue's offense is limited, totaling just 189 yards against the Wolverines. Purdue is one of the most improved teams in the country under first year head coach Jeff Brohm. This team competed in a 7-point loss to Louisville, made easy work of Ohio and Missouri and had a lead on Michigan at the half before fading late. I look for the Boilermakers defense to really make it hard on the Gophers offense, which is pretty limited to start with. Minnesota has no real threat of a passing game, as they rank 100th in the country at a mere 187 ypg. While running the ball is their focus, they are just 58th in rushing at 180.8 ypg. Purdue's defense has had their struggles against the pass, but rank in the top 50 against the run, only giving up 132 ypg (allowed 238 ypg last year). They also have had two full weeks to prepare for Minnesota off their bye. Take the UNDER! |
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10-07-17 | LSU +3 v. Florida | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Afternoon ATS 'VEGAS INSIDER' on LSU + I really like this spot for the Tigers, who are coming off that embarrassing loss at home to Troy last week. The perception couldn't be any worse on LSU, yet they are only a short dog on the road against a Florida team that is sitting at 3-1 with a 3-0 record in the SEC. That tells me the books also like the Tigers here, as the public will lineup to take the Gators at this price. There's no excuse for losing to a Sun Belt team, but LSU was without one of their best players in RB Derrius Guice, who is expected to be back on the field for this game. I think he has a big game here against an overrated Florida defense, which comes in ranked 60th against the run and 82nd against the pass. I also think the Gators are overvalued right now, as they could very easily be 1-3 instead of 3-1, winning on last second plays against both Tennessee and Kentucky. You also have to factor in the injury/suspension situation for Florida. That makes it tough to compete with a team like LSU, who I still think is one of the better teams in the country. Florida is just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 following a game in which they covered the spread. LSU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record and 27-13 in their last 40 road games after a loss. Take LSU! |
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10-07-17 | Penn State -14 v. Northwestern | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 89 h 4 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Early Bird ATS 'NO BRAINER'  on Penn State - I know this seems like a big number for the Nittany Lions to be laying against what many expected to be a strong Northwestern team, but the fact of the matter is, Penn State is even better than anticipated and the Wildcats are a lot worse. Northwestern's only two wins this season are against the likes of Nevada and Bowling Green. Neither one of those teams have won a game so far in 2017 and they trailed Nevada 7-17 at the half. The Wildcats were absolutely dominated in a 41-17 loss at Duke and trailed Wisconsin 31-10 with less than 10 minutes to play. The Badgers play a very physical style of football, which is going to make it that much tougher on Northwestern to bounce back here at home against one of most dynamic offenses the Big Ten has to offer. Look for Heisman frontrunner Saquon Barkley to have another monster game here. The big key here is the defense for Penn State and it's ability to shutdown the Wildcats struggling offensive attack. So much attention is paid to the offense, people don't realize how good the Nittany Lions are on the defensive side of the ball. They rank 13th in the country, giving up just 289.2 ypg. Northwestern's strength offensively is their passing game, which ranks 34th at 278.8 ypg (97th in rushing). That plays right into the strength of the Nittany Lions, who are 19th in the nation against the pass (161.8 ypg). Take Penn State in a blowout! |
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10-07-17 | Penn State v. Northwestern UNDER 53 | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Sharp Money 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Penn State UNDER I really like the value here with the total in Saturday's Penn State/Northwestern matchup. The fact that both these teams played in a game last week that saw more than 53 points, will certainly have the public looking to back the OVER. The thing is, both of those games that these two teams played in were fortunate to eclipse 50 points. The Nittany Lions had 2 non-offensive touchdowns in a 28 point 1st quarter. They also had a stretch of close to 25 minutes of game time where they didn't score at all. They only had 370 total yards and 20 first downs. Keep in mind they only had 21 the previous week against Iowa. Northwestern really made life easy on the Badgers. Wisconsin had just one scoring drive where they had to go more than 50 yards, plus added a defensive touchdown. There was also 16 garbage points scored in the final 5 minutes. The Wildcats only finished that game with 244 total yards and it's not the first time they have struggled. So much attention is paid to the offense, people don't realize how good the Nittany Lions are on the defensive side of the ball. They rank 13th in the country, giving up just 289.2 ypg. Northwestern's strength offensively is their passing game, which ranks 34th at 278.8 ypg (97th in rushing). That plays right into the strength of the Nittany Lions, who are 19th in the nation against the pass (161.8 ypg). On the flip side of this, I look for Northwestern's defense to compete enough here to keep this well below the mark. Take the UNDER! |
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10-06-17 | Cubs +148 v. Nationals | 3-0 | Win | 148 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
3* MLB Division Series 'HEAVY HITTER' on Cubs + I like the value here with the Cubs in Game 1 as a big road dog against the Nationals. The Cubs really turned it on in the 2nd half to take control of the NL Central. They really turned it on down the stretch, going 15-4 in their last 19 games. I like teams that are riding momentum going into the postseason and this stage won't be too much for the defending champs to handle. I also think the Nationals aren't the same caliber a team with Bryce Harper still working his way back from injury. He played in the final 6 games after missing more than two months and had just 3 hits in 18 at bats (no extra base hits and 6 strikeouts). Washington has gone just 1-5 in their last 6 playoff home games, while the Cubs are 13-3 in their last 16 during Game 1 of a series, 5-1 in their last 6 playoff road games and 7-3 in Hendricks last 10 starts when he's throwing with 7 or more days of rest. Take Chicago! |
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10-06-17 | Memphis v. Connecticut UNDER 73.5 | Top | 70-31 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 57 m | Show |
5* American Athletic 'TOTAL OF THE MONTH' on Memphis UNDER This is just too many points for these two teams. UConn is coming of back-to-back games where they combined for at least 77 points, but that was against the likes of East Carolina and SMU, who aren't known for their defense. This still still the same offense that scored 7-points in the 1st half at home against Holy Cross and just 18 at Virginia. I know Memphis' has some poor numbers defensively, but a big reason for that is they have faced two big time offenses in UCLA and UCF. I'm not saying they will be able to shutdown this UConn offense, but I do think they can get off the field and make the Huskies work for every point they do get. As for the Connecticut defense, they will have their work cut out for them, but they should be a little better than normal at home in a prime time matchup like this, where they know a lot of people will be tuning in because it's one of just two college games on the schedule Friday. Memphis also has consistently shot themselves in the foot, as they have 9 turnovers in their first 4 games, including 4 last week in their first road game of the season. UNDER is 35-17 in the Tigers' last 52 road games against conference opponents, 4-1 in their last 5 against a team with a losing record and 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring fewer than 20 points. UNDER is also 5-0 in the Huskies last 5 home games against a team with a winning home record, 13-3 in their last 16 after allowing 200+ rushing yards in their last game and 18-8 in their last 26 off a loss. Take the UNDER! |
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10-05-17 | Patriots v. Bucs UNDER 55.5 | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
4* Pats/Bucs NFL Thursday 'TOTAL ANNIHILATOR' on Pats UNDER I like the value here with the total in Thursday Night Football's showdown between the Patriots and Buccaneers. All we have heard about coming into this game is how bad New England's defense has been playing. It has been bad, but it's also forced the books to inflate this total tonight. This total is higher than 55 that the books set when the Patriots were playing at New Orleans. I just don't think Jameis Winston and the Bucs have the same offensive fire-power as Drew Brees and the Saints. At the same time, no one is better at figuring out the problem and getting it fixed than Bill Belichick. Look for the Patriots offense to help out the defense here and try to take a little more time off the clock when they have the ball. I actually think the Bucs are going to have a similar strategy here, as they don't want to give the ball to Brady and that high-powered Patriots offense. Good news for Tampa is they get back their best back in Doug Martin and should be able to have some success on the ground in this one. I also expect an all out effort here by the Bucs defense, who desperately want to play well here at home in a prime time game. UNDER is 8-1 in the Pats last 9 games played on grass and is 4-1 in the Bucs last 5 games at home. Take the UNDER! |
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10-05-17 | Louisville v. NC State +4.5 | Top | 25-39 | Win | 100 | 57 h 42 m | Show |
5* Lou/NC State ACC 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on NC State + I really like the value here with the Wolfpack catching points at home against the Cardinals on Thursday. I actually NC State is the better team in this matchup and should be the ones favored. The thing is the public is drawn to Louisville and reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson, so the books have no choice but to inflate their lines. The Cardinals haven't really been all that impressive so far. They were fortunate to leave with a win over Purdue in their opener, only led UNC by 1-point going into the 4th quarter and were absolutely dominated by Clemson at home. Jackson is still putting up video game type numbers, but the offense as a whole hasn't been as good and the defense is a lot worse. He really struggled against the dominant defensive front of Clemson and NC State has quite a front of their own, who will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after last year's 13-54 loss at Louisville. The defensive numbers are better than they actually are because of their last two games against Kent State and Murray State, where they allowed a combined 230 total yards. This defense allowed 293 yards passing to Purdue, 384 to UNC and 316 to Clemson. NC State and junior QB Ryan Finley come in with the 24th ranked passing offense in the country at 293.0 ypg. Look for the Wolfpack to big up some big plays through the air that should allow some separation. Take NC State! |
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10-04-17 | Arkansas State -7 v. Georgia Southern | 43-25 | Win | 100 | 25 h 25 m | Show | |
4* Ark ST/Ga Sou Sun Belt 'ATS ANNIHILATOR' on Arkansas State - With Red Wolves starting quarterback Justice Hansen upgraded to probable, I don't see this one being close. Georgia Southern is 0-3 and while two of those losses came at Auburn and at Indiana, they also lost 12-22 at home to New Hampshire out of the FCS. The Eagles have scored a whopping 46 points in their first 3 games. I just don't see them being able to do enough offensively to keep this one competitive, even at home. Arkansas State on the other hand is averaging 35 ppg, having scored 36 in a near upset at Nebraska. The strength of the Red Wolves offensive assault is Hansen and the passing game, which ranks 9th in the country at 351.7 ypg. Not only will they be able to attack the Eagles thru the air, but Georgia Southern's run defense has been atrocious. They are giving up 5.9 yards/carry and 259 yards/game on the ground. The Eagles passing attack ranks 129th out of 130 FBS teams at just 78.0 ypg. That's going to make it really tough on them to play from behind and should eliminate the back door cover. Georgia Southern lost 17-52 last time out to the Hoosiers and are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 off a loss by more than 20 points. The Eagles are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games an 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a conference opponent. Take Arkansas State! |
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10-03-17 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER Â on Twins OVER No Analysis on late releases |
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10-02-17 | Redskins +7 v. Chiefs | 20-29 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
4* Redskins/Chiefs MNF 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Redskins + I like the value here with Washington catching a touchdown against the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Kansas City is getting a ton of respect early on and considered by some to be the best in the NFL, at least in the popular media rankings like ESPN. Oddsmakers aren't nearly as high on this team, who going into Week 4 were tied with 4 other teams with the 5th best odds to win the Super Bowl. I'm not saying the Chiefs aren't a good team, just that this is too many points for them to be laying against a quality opponent like the Redskins. Washington is 2-1 with their only loss coming to division rival Philadelphia, who is off to a strong 3-1 start. Their win at the Rams looks a heck of a lot better after LA just knocked off the Cowboys in Dallas. They also completely dominated the Raiders a week ago, beating Oakland 27-10 with a ridiculous 472 to 128 edge in total yards. The Chiefs defense is one that's going to let Washington move the football up and down the field. Kansas City ranks a mere 20th against the run and 25th against the pass and are without one of their best players in safety Eric Berry. If Cousins can take care of the football and convert a couple red zone drives with touchdowns and not field goals, they could win this game outright. Redskins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Washington! |
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10-01-17 | Eagles v. Chargers -1 | 26-24 | Loss | -115 | 72 h 45 m | Show | |
3* NFL No Doubt 'ATS BLOWOUT' on Chargers - I just think we are getting too much value here with San Diego at basically a pick'em on their home field. Not to mention the Chargers are 0-3 and there's no doubt a feeling in the locker room that this is a must win game. We are going to get the best this team has to offer and this team could very easily be 2-1 and should be at worst 1-2. The Eagles are a team that I think is growing on the public and they have started out 2-1. The thing is, that game against Washington could have went either way in Week 1 and they won last week on a 61-yard field goal as time expired to be the Giants. That New York team was 0-2 and could barely do anything offensively coming into that game. This Eagles secondary is still without top corner Ronald Darby and have been hit with some injuries at safety and one of their best players, Fletcher Cox, is questionable. Philip Rivers can have success against this defense. I also think the Chargers defense can make life tough for the Eagles, who lost a big part of their offense in running back Darren Sproles. This is also a long way out west for Philadelphia to travel and this is definitely a flat spot. Take San Diego! |
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10-01-17 | 49ers v. Cardinals -6.5 | 15-18 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 31 m | Show | |
3* BEST BET on Cardinals - I think we are getting great value here with the Cardinals laying less than a touchdown at home against the 49ers. I know San Francisco has a few extra days to prepare and everything looks broken for Arizona after losing David Johnson. The key here is the 49ers aren't a very good team. They are one of thew few that just don't have the talent to win a lot of games. While they kept it close against the Rams that game wasn't as close as it ended up. That's also the only team they have beat the previous two seasons. They lost by 20 at home in Week 1 against an awful Panthers offense and a little too much love for keeping it close against a Seattle team that always starts out slow. Arizona is going to be pissed off after losing like they did against the Cowboys and I just don't see them playing poorly here in this spot. Reminds me a lot of the spot with Chicago on Thursday, where they looked like they could compete with Green Bay (lot of injuries) and were completely outclassed. Take Arizona! |
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10-01-17 | Rams v. Cowboys UNDER 48 | Top | 35-30 | Loss | -105 | 69 h 41 m | Show |
5* NFC 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Rams UNDER I think we are getting a drastically inflated total here. Dallas has the perception of being a high-scoring team and just scored 28 on the road on Monday Night Football against what most consider to be a good Cardinals defense. The Cowboys were fortunate to get to 28 points with just 273 total yards. Das Prescott only threw for 183, as he continues to struggle. This Dallas offense only had 19 in Week 1 against the Giants and 17 the week before against the Broncos. I know this Rams defense has looked bad to start the year, but there's a ton of the same players from last year's defense that was really good. Including arguably the best interior defensive lineman in the league in Aaron Donald. He's more than good enough to cause some problems for the Cowboys o-line. I also think it's only a matter of time before Wade Phillips get this unit playing up to it's potential. This could very well be the week, as they have had a few extra days of practice and preparation after playing on Thursday in Week 2. Keep in mind Dallas is on short rest after playing on Monday Night Football. That one day difference might not seem like much, but every day matters when it comes to recovering from an NFL game. While the offense is overvalued right now, the Dallas defense doesn't get near the respect they deserve. They get treated like one of the worst units in the league because they don't have any super stars the fans can relate to. They finished 14th in total defense and 5th in scoring defense last year. The Rams looked good offensively on prime time, but that was against the 49ers. They  didn't look nearly as good the previous week against Washington. I don't see them lighting up this defense on the road. Take the UNDER 48! |
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10-01-17 | Steelers v. Ravens +3 | 26-9 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 41 m | Show | |
4* Steelers/Ravens AFC North 'GAME OF THE WEEK' on Ravens + I think this is a great spot to jump on Baltimore, as the perception here couldn't be much worse after their 44-7 loss to the Jaguars. The Ravens didn't show up to play and you have to wonder if they overlooked a Jaguars team that has been so bad for so long and just might have turned the corner. Baltimore definitely didn't play like the same team that started out 2-0, especially on defense. That plane ride home from London had to be the worst. I expect to see a pissed off Ravens team, who isn't going to take lightly to the fact that they have the same record as their division rivals, yet they are home dogs. While the Steelers are 2-1, they haven't played great and just lost to a Bears team that looked awful on Thursday Night Football against the Packers. They were in a dog fight Week 1 at Cleveland, who was starting a rookie QB. They won by 17 at home against the Vikings, but they learned last minute that Bradford wasn't going to and had to go with Case Keenum (hard to get prepared for a start on that short of notice). Flacco wasn't good against the Jaguars last week, but I think he's going to show up here against the Steelers, who I think aren't as good on defense as people think. They have just had it easy going so far with 3 games against Kizer, Keenum and Glennon. As for the Steelers offense, it's no secret that they aren't the same offensive team on the road as they are at home. Most of that coming from poor play from Ben Roethlisberger. I see him struggling here against a very good Ravens defense and Baltimore winning this game outright. Take Baltimore! |
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10-01-17 | Panthers +9 v. Patriots | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 69 h 41 m | Show | |
4* NFL Situational ATS 'GAME OF THE WEEK'  on Panthers + The Patriots were very fortunate to win at home last week against the Texans, scoring from 25 yards out with just 23 seconds to play for a 36-33 win. A great comeback, but that's not how it's gone in the past with Belichick against a rookie QB. He usually makes them look bad. While Deshaun Watson threw 2 picks, he also threw for 301 yards and 2 scores and rushed for 41 yards. This Patriots defense didn't look good in the preseason, was torched by Alex Smith and the Chiefs in Week 1 at home in prime time, was okay against the Saints and just gave up 33 points to the Texans. Houston scored 13 points and had just 266 total yards the previous week against the Bengals and 7 in their Week 1 loss to the Jaguars at home. As bad as Cam Newton and the Panthers have looked this season, you have to think they are going to have some success here against this defense. I'm not sure what happened last week against the Saints, but this Carolina defense was playing lights out the first two weeks and have a ton of talent on that side of the ball. They are going to be locked in here off that ugly showing and a chance to take on the GOAT. Given what we have seen so far from New England, would it really be a surprise if they lost this game? The books are still inflating the Pats line after they owned the books last year. Take the Panthers! |
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10-01-17 | Saints v. Dolphins +141 | 20-0 | Loss | -100 | 65 h 20 m | Show | |
3* Saints/Dolphins Early Bird 'NO BRAINER' on Dolphins + Forget the points, I'm taking the Dolphins to win outright in London against the Saints on Sunday. I think we are getting some value here with Miami after they lost on the road to the Jets as a 6-point favorite. A game a lot of people expected them to win and cover. New York was and likely still will be the public top team to go against because of how bad they are perceived to be. I'm not saying the Jets are a good team and will win a bunch of games, but chances are it isn't as bad as people think. Plus, that was a their division and home opener. Just about every team is going to have a little more juice that first home game of the season. Just look at the 49ers last year against the Rams. While Miami is getting no love off of that loss, the Saints just pulled off a big 34-13 win on the road against a Panthers team that was 2-0. The books no the money will come in on New Orleans and this small line tells me they like Miami's chances of winning outright. I do too. The loss to the Jets turned this from a mini vacation to a business trip. Cutler is a more than capable quarterback and has some nice weapons to work with. Miami should be able to move the ball without much problem against a really bad Saints defense. Don't be fooled by the 14 points New Orleans held the Panthers to. Carolina's offense was bad in their first two games (scored 9 points at home against the Bills). Drew Brees is going to make some plays, but Miami can make some stops and that should lead to the separation needed for the win. Take the Dolphins! |
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09-30-17 | Iowa v. Michigan State -3 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 17 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Vegas Insider 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Michigan State - I love the value here getting Michigan State as a slim 3-point favorite at home against the Hawkeyes. This is an ideal spot to fade Iowa off that huge Saturday night home game against No. 4 Penn State, which they let slip through their fingers on the final play of regulation. On the flip side of this, we get Michigan State in an ideal bounce back spot off a blowout loss at home to Notre Dame. Even if the situation was different, I would lay just a field goal at home with the Spartans. The biggest thing is I just don't think Iowa team is as good as people think. Sure they kept it close against the Nittany Lions, but they also beat Michigan in a similar spot a year ago and weren't that great. Wins over Wyoming, Iowa State and North Texas leave little to be desired. Also, that game against Penn State could have been a lot worse. Iowa's offense was atrocious for pretty much the entire first half and ran about has as many plays as the Nittany Lions. They could have just as easily lost by 20+. As for Michigan State, they were a lot more competitive against Notre Dame than the final score would lead on, as they outgained the Irish 496 to 355. They come in ranked 9th in the country in total defense, allowing just 254 ypg. If Iowa thought it was tough at home moving the ball against the Nittany Lions, they are in for a really long day on the road against a pissed of Spartans team. Take Michigan State! |
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09-30-17 | Iowa v. Michigan State UNDER 44 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 42 h 20 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'DESTROYER' on Iowa UNDER This has the makings of a low-scoring game, as we have two teams that like to grind it out offensively with their running game and are stout on the defensive side of the ball. Michigan State comes in ranked 9th in total defense, allowing just 254 ypg and are 31st in rushing at 220.7 ypg. Iowa isn't ranked as high defensively or in the running game, but watching this team play that defensive front is very good and they got one of the top backs in the country behind a really good offensive line. There's also a ton a familiarity between these two teams, as Mark Dantonio is in his 11th year with Michigan State and Kirk Ferentz is going on his 19th year at Iowa. Both teams run similar schemes as they have in the past and that's a big advantage for both defenses. The last time these two teams played was the 2015 Big Ten title game and the final score was 16-13. Only once in the last 7 seasons have these two combined for more than 44 points. UNDER is 23-12 in the Hawkeyes last 35 as a underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and 15-6 in their last 21 road games against a team that is allowing 310 or less yards/game. UNDER is also 14-5 in Michigan State's last 19 home games as a favorite of 7 points or less. Take the UNDER! |
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09-30-17 | Eastern Michigan +14.5 v. Kentucky | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
3* BEST BET on Eastern Michigan + I like the value here with Eastern Michigan catching two touchdowns plus the hook. Chances are you haven't been paying close attention to the Eagles. This program is on the rise. After a 4-year stretch where they went 7-41, Eastern Michigan finished 7-5 and made a bowl last year. This turnaround is a result of head coach Chris Creighton, who will be getting a promotion to a bigger program in the near future. His recruits are finally seeing the field and playing big roles, as this is now year 4 with the team. The come in off a loss to Ohio, but were in that game and could have just as easily won. The previous week they won on the road at Rutgers as a mere 6-point dog. The big key here is we catch Kentucky in the ideal spot to fade off a demoralizing 27-28 loss to Florida. A very similar spot to Tennessee last week, when they barely held on to beat UMass after losing the Gators on a Hail Mary. This is almost bigger than a bowl game for the Eagles, as they get to show their stuff against a SEC foe. I think they make a game of this and maybe even pull off the upset. Take Eastern Michigan! |
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09-30-17 | Georgia v. Tennessee +8 | 41-0 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 31 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Situational 'PUBLIC ANNIHILATOR' on Tennessee + I like the value here with the Volunteers catching over a touchdown at home against the Bulldogs. I just think we are seeing a huge overreaction here with this line after Tennessee barely scraped by UMass 17-13 as a 28-point favorite. The Vols struggling against the Minutemen was no surprise to most experts. Tennessee had just suffered an excruciating loss to rival Florida the week before, where they rallied from a 10-point deficit to tie it at 20-20, only to have the Gators connect on a 63-yard Hail Mary as time expired. Just about every team is going to suffer a letdown after a loss like that. Had that Florida came went differently and the Vols were 4-0, I think this line would be a lot closer to 3 or 4 not 8. Georgia has looked impressive and off a big win over Mississippi State, but it's not easy winning on the road in the SEC, especially against a quality opponent. Let's also not overlook that this Bulldogs team is only 83rd in the country in total offense and offer little to no threat of a passing attack (166 ypg, 112th). I expect a much more focused and determined Tennessee defense at home on Saturday afternoon and wouldn't be shocked if the Vols won this game outright. The underdog in this series is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Vols are 4-1 ATS the last 5 times they hosted the Bulldogs. Take Tennessee! |
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09-30-17 | Syracuse +14 v. NC State | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
3* BEST BET on Syracuse + Now that this line has got up to 14, think it's worth a shot to take the Orange on the road against NC State. This is a really tough spot for the Wolfpack, who are coming off a huge game and win on the road over Florida State, who they hadn't beat since that crazy 17-16 upset over the then No. 3 Seminoles back in 2012. Hard to pay a ton of attention to Syracuse when you have another big game looming in just a matter of days, as they host Louisville and reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson. I just think they come out flat here and this Orange team can put up some points if you don't give your full respect. We saw that last week when they went on the road and gave LSU all they could handle in a 26-35 loss as a 21.5-point favorite. I think we see a similar type of game here, where they probably don't have a real shot at winning, but do enough to cash the cover. Take Syracuse! |
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09-30-17 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin UNDER 50 | Top | 24-33 | Loss | -115 | 61 h 7 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Big Ten 'TOTAL OF THE YEAR' Wisconsin/Northwestern UNDER I really like the value here with UNDER in Saturday's Big Ten clash between Northwestern and Wisconsin. These are two teams that take a lot of pride on the defensive side of the ball. Wisconsin features one of the elite units in the country. The Badgers are 7th in the nation, giving up just 248.0 ypg and rank inside the Top 20 against both the run and the pass. They have really been good against the run. Wisconsin is allowing just 3.1 yards/carry and holding opponents 1.4 yards/carry under their average. Northwestern is a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success. That was pretty evident in their loss at Duke, where they scored just 17 points and finished with 22 rushing yards and 21 attempts. Northwestern's defense isn't on the same level as the Badgers and actually comes in giving up some big numbers against both the run and the pass, but came out with a different attitude after that blowout loss to the Blue Devils. Factor in they are coming off a bye and I like their chances of keeping what I feel is a pretty average Wisconsin in check. The Wildcats also have a history of not letting the Badgers get going offensively, as they have held them to 21 or fewer points each of the last 3 seasons. In the last 3 games, the highest combined total was 44 and I don't see them getting there this year. UNDER is 9-1 in Northwestern's last 10 games in the month of September, 8-1 in their last 9 off a home win and 11-3 in their last 14 off a cover. UNDER is also a perfect 9-0 in Wisconsin's last 9 games after they put together 2 straight dominant performances where they had 34 or more minutes in time of possession and 24+ first downs. Take the UNDER! |
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09-30-17 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin -14 | 24-33 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 2 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF No Doubt 'ATS BLOWOUT'  on Wisconsin - This might seem like a big number for the Badgers to be laying at home, but I don't see this one being all that competitive. I'm not buying that Northwestern is just all the sudden back after a blowout win at home over a Bowling Green team that doesn't have a win this season, which includes a loss to a FCS school. I think the biggest indicator here is the Wildcats game against Duke, which they lost 17-49. Northwestern managed just 191 total yards in that game 7 of those 17 points came in the final minutes of regulation with the game well in hand. Wisconsin's defense is even better than the Blue Devils. The Badgers are 7th in the nation, giving up just 248.0 ypg and rank inside the Top 20 against both the run and the pass. They have really been good against the run. Wisconsin is allowing just 3.1 yards/carry and holding opponents 1.4 yards/carry under their average. Northwestern is a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success. That was pretty evident in that loss at Duke, where they finished with a mere 22 rushing yards and 21 attempts. I don't think the Badgers light up the scoreboard here, but I think they score 24+ and they are going to be in prime position to cover, as I just don't see Northwestern eclipsing 10-points. There's a chance Wisconsin could go for even more, but either way I like them to win by at least two touchdowns. Take Wisconsin! |
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09-30-17 | South Florida v. East Carolina UNDER 76 | 61-31 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 60 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'NO BRAINER' on South Florida UNDER I think the value here is clearly with the UNDER on this massive total for Saturday's action between East Carolina and South Florida. The Bulls have a high-powered offense that has scored 30+ in all 4 games this season and will be taking on a ECU defense that has allowed at least 34 in all 4 of their games, including 64 to Va Tech. I just don't see the Bulls being 100% focused for this one after a couple of prime time weekday games the last two weeks against Illinois and Temple. It's not like we haven't seen them come out flat before. Just look back to their opener when they trailed San Jose State 16-0 after 1 quarter. Add in this being a road game and early start time, I think we get a USF team that just goes through the motions. East Carolina figures to get for this game and we will need them to put up some kind of resistance here. I just don't think the offense will be able to do enough here to push this over the mark. All the attention goes to South Florida's offense, but the defense is playing lights out as well. The Bulls  rank 13th in the country, allowing just 263.8 ypg and are 3rd against the run (66 ypg). UNDER is 25-10-1 in the Bulls last 36 against a team with a losing record and 17-8-1 in their last 26 on the road. UNDER is also 11-4 in East Carolina's last 15 conference games. Take the UNDER! |
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09-30-17 | Rice v. Pittsburgh OVER 53 | 10-42 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 59 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Early Bird Total 'HEAVY HITTER' on Rice OVER I think the books have really set the bar too low with the total for Saturday's non-conference matchup between Pittsburgh and Rice. The Panthers come in having scored just 14, 21 and 17 points over their last 3 games, but those came against Penn State, Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech. Needless to say Pitt's offense is looking forward to this one, as they take on an Owls defense that is giving up 37.0 ppg and 472 ypg (88th). That's with half their games against UTEP and FIU, where they held them both to 14 or less. They gave up 62 in their opener against Stanford. While they only gave up 38 to Houston, that's only because the Cougars took their foot off the gas. Houston had 38 points with 4 minutes to play in the 2nd quarter. I don't think it's out of the question that the Panthers cover this total on their own, but I do think there's a good chance here the Owls contribute to this total. Rice will be facing a Pitt defense that ranks 114th in the country, ranking outside the Top 100 against both the run and the pass. Even if Rice struggles early, they should be able to score late when it gets out of hand. Take the OVER! |
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09-30-17 | New Mexico State v. Arkansas UNDER 62 | 24-42 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER No Analysis on late releases |
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09-29-17 | Nebraska v. Illinois UNDER 47 | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 46 h 42 m | Show | |
4* Illinois/Nebraska Friday Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Nebraska/Illinois UNDER I'm expecting a very boring and low-scoring Big Ten affair Friday night between Nebraska and Illinois. Both of these teams are struggling offensively out of the gate. The Cornhuskers come in ranked 90th in the country in total offense at just 378.5 ypg. The Fighting Illini are even worst, as they come in 121st in total offense at 179.7 ypg (rank outside Top 100 in both rushing and passing). Nebraska was able to put up some points in their first two games against Arkansas State and Oregon, but a lot of that had to do with the lackluster defense on the other side and the pace of the game. Neither of these teams tonight are looking to push the tempo and I expect to see a lot more punts than drives that end in points. I know Illinois' defensive numbers aren't great, as they are 101st in total defense. The thing is, a lot of that came from that ugly loss to USF, who is one of the better teams in the country with some electric playmakers on offense. They held a decent Ball State offense to just 21 in their opener and a WKU offense to just 7 in game 2. Given Nebraska's problems offensively and this being a home night game, I think we see an inspired Illinois defense that delivers a solid performance. That should be more than enough to keep this below the mark. UNDER is 10-2 in Nebraska's last 12 conference games and 5-1 in their last 6 after allowing 20 or less in their previous game. UNDER is also in Illinois' last 6 after giving up 40+ points, 14-5 in their last 19 at home and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a bye. Take the UNDER! |
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09-28-17 | Bears +7.5 v. Packers | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
3* Bears/Packers TNF 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Bears + I like the value here with Chicago catching over a touchdown on the road against a banged up Packers team. I know Aaron Rodgers has had a lot of success against the Bears in his career, especially at home, but he's going into this one with his top 5 offensive tackles not expected to be available. Starters David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga are both listed as doubtful and their top 3 backups are all on IR. Regardless of what the Packers do, that offensive line figures to have a very difficult time blocking. As good as Rodgers is, he can only be so effective when he doesn't have time to throw. Keep in mind last week he was sacked 6 times by the Bengals. Chicago's defensive front has been impressive, as they are 8th against the run (83.7 ypg). They are also 12th overall in total defense. I know the offense hasn't been great under Mike Glennon, but I like their 1-2 punch out of the backfield with Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. The two have combined for 354 yards and nearly 5.0 yards/carry on the season. Cohen is also a big time threat in the passing game, as he actually leads Chicago with 20 receptions for 126 yards. Green Bay also has some injuries concerns on defense. Linebacker Nick Perry and defensive tackle Mike Daniels are both questionable and corner Davon House has been ruled out. Lets also give the Bears some credit. They hung with Atlanta in a 6-point home loss in Week 1, lost 29-7 at Tampa Bay, but were more competitive than the final score and last week they didn't just hang around with the Steelers, they beat them outright. I also think it's a low-scoring game, which adds even more value to Chicago at this price. Take the Bears! |
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09-28-17 | Texas v. Iowa State UNDER 64 | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 33 h 12 m | Show | |
4* ISU/Texas Over/Under Total 'NO BRAINER' on Iowa State UNDER I think the value here is with the UNDER in Thursday's Big 12 matchup between Iowa State and Texas. Each of the last two meetings in this series have been very low scoring. In 2015, last time they played at ISU, the two combined for 24 points. Last year in Texas they only managed to combine for 33. I do think it's going to be a little more high-scoring than each of those, but we got a lot of wiggle room with this total. For the two to eclipse this mark, they are going to have average roughly 16 points, which is basically 2 touchdowns and a field goal each period. I just don't think we see that much scoring here. Keep in mind that both of these teams were off last week, so each has had extra time to prepare for the opponent. That's typically a bigger edge for the defenses, as they really can get into the tendencies of each team. Add in the extra energy level with this being a prime time game on Thursday night in front of an ESPN audience and we should see both offenses struggle to get going. UNDER is 9-1 in Texas' last 10 overall, 25-9 in their last 34 against the Big 12 and 20-6 in their last 26 against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! |
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09-27-17 | Braves v. Mets +104 | 1-7 | Win | 104 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
3* MLB Situational Money Line 'HEAVY HITTER' on Mets + I like the value here with New York in basically a pick'em at home against division rival Atlanta. The Mets showed they aren't going to just lay down with nothing to play for, as they rallied from a 3 run deficit to knock off the Braves 4-3 on Tuesday and I look for them to build on that momentum with another win here. New York will send out Robert Gsellman, who was sensational two starts ago in Atlanta, limiting the Braves to 0 earned runs (1 unearned) on just 3 hits over 7 innings of a 5-1 win. That was Gsellman's second straight dominant outing, as he threw 6 2/3 shutout innings against the Braves back in early June. We also find a strong system in playing favoring a fade of Atlanta. Road teams off a division loss by 1-run are just 16-36 over the last 5 seasons in games involving two bad teams that have won between 38% and 46% of their games. That's a 69% system in favor of the Mets. Take New York! |
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09-26-17 | Cubs v. Cardinals -111 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
3* Cubs/Cardinals MLB 'ANNIHILATOR' on Cardinals - I like the value here with St Louis as a short home division favorite against the Cubs on Tuesday. Chicago won the opener yesterday in blowout fashion and that's not going to sit well with the Cardinals. The key here is with that win the Cubs have all but won the NL Central, as they need just 1 more win or Brewers loss to secure the top spot in the division. I look for the Cubs to have a tough time here against the Cardinals' Carlos Martinez, who has been at his best at home this season and that includes two home starts against the Cubs. Martinez owns a 3.18 ER and 1.104 WHIP in 14 home starts and allowed just 3 runs over 14 innings in his two home outings against the Cubs. Even with yesterday's loss the Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning record and are 16-6 in their last 22 during Game 2 of a series. They are also 11-4 in Martinez's last 15 starts after giving up 5+ runs in their last game. Take St Louis! |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals +3.5 | Top | 28-17 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
5* Cowboys/Cardinals MNF 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Cardinals + I like the value here with Arizona catching a field goal, plus the hook at home against the Cowboys.  Arizona was able to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start with an ugly 16-13 win at Indianapolis in Week 2. While that's not what you would expect from Arizona against a bad Colts team, the Cardinals have really not been a good road team the last few years. They are much better at home and I think that's where the value is here, as this will be the Cardinals home opener on Monday Night Football. We are also getting value because of how big a public team Dallas is. Even after an awful showing last week at Denver, the public is pounding the Cowboys and will continue to do so. I wouldn't be shocked if this line started to move and would still recommend taking Arizona as a dog of any price here. The Cardinals run defense has been on point early on, as they held the Lions to just 82 yards on 27 attempts and the Colts to 75 on 29 attempts. I don't expect them to shutdown the Cowboys rushing attack, but I do think they slow them down and that all you have to do to give this Dallas offense problems. As for the Cowboys defense, we saw what Trevor Siemian did to them last week and would expect similar numbers here from Carson Palmer. Dallas is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 following a loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after giving up 350 or more yards in their previous game. Cowboys are also a miserable 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games played on Monday Night Football. Take Arizona! |
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09-25-17 | Royals v. Yankees -165 | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show | |
4* MLB Early Bird 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Yankees - New York needs a win here to clinch home field for the Wild Card game and I expect them to do just that against the struggling Royals who are all but out of the playoff picture. Tough spot here for KC, as this is a make-up game, which has them taking a quick flight from Chicago, where they concluded a series yesterday, to New York for an early game. I just don't see the Royals being on of their game here. I also like the pitching matchup for the Yankees. New York sends out C.C. Sabathia, who is coming off a strong showing at home last time out against the Twins, allowing just 2 runs in 6 innings of work. Sabathia also has a strong track record against the Royals with a 3.11 ERA in his career. He's faced them once this season and allowed just 5 hits over 6 2/3 shutout innings. KC counters with Jake Junis, who has a not so great 4.70 ERA in 8 road starts. While Junis pitched well in his last outing, he's just 1-4 against the money line following a Quality Start. KC is also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 series openers and 3-9 in their last 12 road games games against a team with a winning record! Take New York! |
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09-24-17 | Raiders v. Redskins +3.5 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 40 h 2 m | Show | |
3* Raiders/Redskins SNF 'HEAVY HITTER' on Redskins + The Raiders are one of the biggest publicly backed teams going right now and I love fading the public in these Sunday Night games, as we know we are getting a good price on the other side. That's certainly the case here with Washington as a 3.5-point home dog. Washington was better than the final score in their opener against the Eagles, as they actually had the ball driving for the game-winning score and lost a fumble that was returned for a TD and lost by 13. They responded very well in Week 2 at LA, taking down what I think is a very improved Rams team. I expect a big time effort here with them getting no love at home in a prime time game and could also see the Raiders coming in with a bit of a big head after that 25-point blowout win against the Jets. I still have a lot of concerns with that Oakland defense and that really makes them hard to trust as a road favorite. Let's also not forget how fortunate this team was in close games last year. Washington is a solid 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Take Washington! |
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09-24-17 | Bengals +8 v. Packers | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show | |
4* NFL No Doubt ATS 'BLOWOUT' on Bengals + The Bengals have looked as bad as any team to start the season and I believe it has them way undervalued here as a big road dog against the Packers. Cincinnati fired their offensive coordinator and simply can't be as bad as they have been on offense going forward. The Bengals red zone efficiency is in uncharted territory and is going to improve. Green Bay gets a lot of love because of Aaron Rodgers, but I see a lot of concerns with this team. They got a ton of key guys injured and are not putting up near the offensive numbers you would expect given they got Rodgers. They didn't score an offensive touchdown until the final minute of the 3rd quarter in their opener against the Seahawks and had just 10-points against the Falcons before adding on a couple late scores with the game basically out of reach. While the offense has struggled, Cincinnati's defense has played well to start the year. I think they give the Packers trouble here. We also know we are getting a desperate Bengals team that doesn't want to start out 0-3. I don't know that they can avoid that, but I do expect them to keep this close. Take Cincinnati! |
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09-24-17 | Broncos v. Bills +3.5 | Top | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
5* AFC Vegas Insider 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Bills + I really like the value with Buffalo catching over a field goal at home against the Broncos. This is a big time letdown spot for Denver, who has started out 2-0 and off that huge win at home over the Cowboys. The Bills on the other hand are just 1-1 and not a team the public wants a whole lot to do with, but they have played well early on. Buffalo handled the Jets at home in rather convincing fashion and despite an offense that couldn't move the ball, hung in their with the Panthers on the road in week 2. The Bills managed just 176 total yards in last week's game against Carolina, but that's actually a positive when it comes to covering the spread this week. Buffalo is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a performance where they totaled less than 250 yards. Denver on the other hand is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a win by more than 14 points and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against the Bills. Take Buffalo! |
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09-24-17 | Steelers v. Bears +7.5 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 33 h 31 m | Show | |
3* NFL Situational 'UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG'  on Bears + I really like the value here with Chicago catching over a touchdown at home against the Steelers. Pittsburgh comes in 2-0 and are a big public team, which has this line inflated. What people continue to overlook with this Steelers team is they don't play as well on the road. Most notably quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. If you look back to Week 1, they barely held on to beat the Browns 21-18 in Cleveland and that was with the Browns spotting them a touchdown on blocked punt. Chicago got rolled last week by the Bucs on the scoreboard, but it was a more evenly matched game than the 29-7 final would indicate. The total yardage was nearly identical with Tampa Bay at 311 and the Bears at 310. The difference being Chicago finishing with a -3 turnover margin. We saw the Bears keep it within a TD at home against the Falcons in Week 1 and expect them to do the same here. This has historically been a good spot to back the Bears, as they are 38-22 ATS in their last 60 home games after 2 or more consecutive losses and have actually won these games on average by nearly 3 ppg. Steelers are 6-15 ATS under Tomlin in road games in the first month of the season, while Bears head coach John Fox is 18-4 as a head coach when his team trailed in the previous game by 14 or more points at the half. Take Chicago! |
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09-24-17 | Ravens v. Jaguars +3.5 | 7-44 | Win | 100 | 29 h 6 m | Show | |
4* Jaguars/Ravens NFL London ATS 'NO BRAINER' on Jags + I like the value here with the Jaguars in Sunday's early game in London. These are two very similar teams that want to run the football and let their defense do the work. Both have been really strong defensively and I just think the 3.5-points is too good to pass up here. Baltimore has looked great to start, but let's not overreact to beating up on a Bengals team that might have the worse offensive line in the NFL and taking down the Browns at home. Turnovers have really aided both wins for the Ravens, who have a ridiculous 10 takeaways (8 interceptions) in two games. What's getting overlooked is the Ravens offense hasn't been good and this team will struggle to win if they don't get those turnovers. Baltimore was actually outgained by the Browns last week and only had a 268-221 edge in total yards in their 20-0 win over the Bengals. Another thing here with Baltimore is the injuries are really starting to pile up and they will be without several key pieces for this one. Ravens are 0-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons after 2 straight games in which they held their opponent to 99 yards or less. We also find a strong system in play on the Jaguars. Teams that had a turnover margin of -1/game or worse the previous year are an impressive 24-8 (75%) the last 10 seasons against the spread the next year in conference games. Take Jacksonville! |
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09-23-17 | Penn State v. Iowa UNDER 53 | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Prime Time 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Iowa/Penn St UNDER Late edition here with the UNDER in tonight's Big Ten showdown between Penn State and Iowa. These two teams played last year and combined for 55 and that was with the Nittany Lions hanging 41 on the Hawkeyes. I just don't see Penn State being able to have that same kind of success offensively against a good and fired up Iowa defense that is going to feed off the energy of the home fans in a rare night game. Iowa's defense is allowing less than 100 yards on the ground (97 ypg) and holding teams to a half-yard below their average. They also are allowing opposing QBs to complete just 57.4 % of their passes. Penn State is only allowing 3 yards/carry against the run and if you can slow down Iowa's rushing attack they really have a hard time sustaining drives. Iowa knows they have to avoid the big plays and make Penn State work for everything they get. We saw Pittsburgh hold them to just 312 yards a couple weeks back and I think this Hawkeyes defense is way better than the Panthers. I just see both teams having a hard time here getting the offense going and see this one finishing closer to 45 than 55. Take the UNDER! |
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09-23-17 | Florida v. Kentucky +110 | 28-27 | Loss | -100 | 37 h 57 m | Show | |
4* Florida/Kentucky SEC 'GAME OF THE WEEK' on Kentucky + I was on Kentucky last week in their 23-13 outright win as a dog on the road against South Carolina and love the Wildcats again this week at home against Florida. Kentucky has been trending in the right direction under Mark Stoops and this looks like this could be the year they take that step into being a legit threat to win the SEC East. Keep in mind they were in the running last year after a 4-2 start in conference. The Wildcats have a real weapon on offense in senior QB Stephen Johnson, who can not only beat you with his arm, but can attack defenses with his legs. Johnson has rushed it 18 times this year and is averaging 7.2 yards/attempt. I believe a mobile quarterback is key when going up against a great defensive team like Florida. The other key here is that the Wildcats have the defense that can keep the Gators offensive attack in check. Not that you need a lot to slow down a Florida offense that ranks 117th in rushing and 91st in passing. Add in the home crowd and Kentucky catching Florida in an ideal spot off that big rivalry game against Tennessee and I think they finally put an end to their 30-game losing streak (longest active streak in FBS). Take Kentucky! |
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09-23-17 | Auburn v. Missouri UNDER 60.5 | 51-14 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 41 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Missouri/Auburn UNDER I really like the value here with Saturday's SEC cross matchup between Auburn and Missouri staying under the total. Missouri's offense turned some heads in their opener, which saw them hang 72 against Missouri St, but that proved to be just them taking advantage of a bad team. Since that huge offensive outburst, Missouri has totaled a mere 13 points at home to Auburn and 3 to Purdue (only 203 total yards). Now the Tigers go against the best defense they will have seen in Auburn, who is currently 2nd in the country in total defense, allowing just 201.7 ypg. That's no fluke either, as they held Clemson to just 14-points and 281 total yards. I just don't see any way that Missouri scores more than 14 on the road and wouldn't be shocked if they didn't score a point. If Missouri was able to get to 14, Auburn would have to score 47 for us to lose. I just don't see that happening. Auburn's highest output this year is 41 and last week they only managed 24 against Mercer. With a potentially huge game looming on deck at home against Miss St, I don't see Auburn running up the score either. UNDER is 12-4 in Auburn's last 16 games overall and 11-3 in their last 14 after failing to cover the spread in their last game. UNDER is also 13-4 in Missouri's last 17 conference games and 8-1 in their last 9 after 2 straight games where they failed to cover the spread. Take the UNDER! |
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09-23-17 | Mississippi State v. Georgia -4 | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 36 h 24 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Situational ATS 'NO BRAINER' on Georgia - After an impressive 37-7 win at home over LSU last week, the public is going to be on the Bulldogs here as dog against Georgia, who despite being ranked No. 11 isn't a team getting a lot of publicity either. I just don't see Mississippi State being able to bounce back from that near perfect performance with a similar one on the road against a much better Georgia team. For me this one comes down to Georgia's defense under Kirby Smart and Mel Tucker being too much for Mississippi State's Nick Fitzgerald to overcome. A lot of what Mississippi State does offensively is built around their ability to get Fitzgerald going on the ground. Georgia has already faced a talented mobile quarterback and passed with flying colors. That would be Notre Dame's Brandon Wimbush, who they limited to 1 yard on 16 attempts. Wimbush has rushed for 313 yards and 5 scores in his two other games this season, including a always strong BC defense. I just see too much value here in Georgia at home laying less than a touchdown. Keep in mind Georgia is 51-14 at home SU over the last 10 years and the home team in this series has gone 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Georgia! |
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09-23-17 | TCU +14 v. Oklahoma State | 44-31 | Win | 100 | 33 h 55 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Afternoon 'ODDSMAKERS ERROR' on TCU + I just think we are getting too much value on TCU to pass up a play on the Horned Frogs. No question Oklahoma State has looked impressive, but let's not get too carried away with how easy it's been. This team is going to be tested and it's a lot harder to blow teams out inside conference play. Especially a talented team like TCU, who has had a pretty impressive start of their own. The Horned Frogs outgained Jackson State 542 to 65 in a 63-0 blowout win to start the year, followed that up with a convincing 28-7 win on the road over Arkansas and then beat SMU by 20. I know it's early, but they are ranked inside the Top 20 in both total offense and total defense. TCU head coach Gary Patterson will put together a game plan here to slow down the Cowboys' high-flying offensive attack. Part of it will be the scheme defensively. The other will be the offense sustaining drives and keeping them off the field. Dating back the Horned Frogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 on the road against a team with a winning home record, 20-10 ATS in their last 30 as a dog of 10.5 to 21 points and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 as a road dog. Take TCU! |
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09-23-17 | Miami-OH +110 v. Central Michigan | Top | 31-14 | Win | 110 | 33 h 43 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Mid-American (MAC) 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Miami + I think now is the perfect time to jump on the RedHawks here as a pick'em against Central Michigan. A lot of people were on this Miami team coming into the year, but the buzz around this team is no longer there after a 1-2 start with a loss to a Marshall team that went 3-9 last year and a loss to Cincinnati that won 4 games. The thing is both of those teams are greatly improved this year. Marshall has went on to cover at NC State and posted a shutout win over Kent State. Also, the RedHawks gave that game away against the Thundering Herd. Miami outgained Marshall 429 to 267 and had a 25-15 edge in first downs (Marshall had 3 non-offensive TDs). As for Cincinnati, that's a game they should have won. Miami had a 17-6 lead with less than 5 minutes to play. They gave up a 75-yard TD drive then threw a pick-6 with 1:07 to play to lose 17-21. I just feel we are getting value here, as Miami is getting treated like a 1-2 team when they really should be 3-0. This is simply a game they can't afford to lose and I don't think they will. Central Michigan is 2-1, but were fortunate to beat Rhode Island at home in their opener, beat up on Kansas and were just blown out by Syracuse. Miami's defense ranks 31st in the country (Top 40 vs both run and pass), while the Chippewas are 118th (Outside Top 100 vs both run and pass). CM has a good passing attack, but won't be able to do enough here to keep pace with a much better RedHawks team. Take Miami (OH)! |
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09-23-17 | Cubs v. Brewers +125 | 3-4 | Win | 125 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
3* MLB Situational 'HEAVY HITTER' on Brewers + I like the value here with Milwaukee as a decently priced home dog against the Cubs on Saturday afternoon. The Brewers have lost the first two in this huge 4-game series in extra innings and simply can't afford to lose here. While it's now a long-shot they catch Chicago for the NL Central title, they are now 2-back of the Rockies for the final Wild Card spot. Milwaukee will send out Brent Suter, who is coming off a strong start at Pittsburgh, where he tossed 5 shutout innings. He's now in his 4th start back from the DL and will have that pitch count up today to where he can be even more effective. Good spot to fade the Cubs, who are just 2-8 in their last 10 road games off 2 straight road wins over a division rival. It's also a good situation to fade Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks, who is a mere 3-8 in his last 11 day starts. Take Milwaukee! |
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09-22-17 | Utah -3.5 v. Arizona | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
4* Utah/Arizona CFB Late Night 'BAILOUT'  on Utah - I look for the Utes to go into Tucson and lay a beating on the Wildcats tonight. Utah is a team that I feel is flying under the radar right now, as not much was expected out of the Utes with just 9 starters back from last year. Kyle Whittingham has done a tremendous job in Salt Lake City and there's a lot of excitement about this year's team. Utah has always had a strong defense due their ability to recruit and develop kids on that side of the ball. In year's past they have just tried to let their defense win them games by grinding out games. This year's team has a different feel, as they are taking a different approach on offense behind maybe the best kept secret in college football in sophomore quarterback Tyler Huntley, who beat out last year's starter Troy Williams (Sr) and Alabama transfer Cooper Bateman. Huntley has been electric so far, throwing for 868 yards with an impressive 72% completion rate and 7.82 yards/attempt. However, it's his ability to run the ball that really makes him special, as he's already got 212 yards and 3 scores on the ground (puts him on pace for just under 1,000 yards rushing). He threw for 300 yards and rushed for 89 against BYU and while the Utes only won that game 19-13, they outgained the Cougars by almost 200 yards (had to settle for 4 field goals). I think he has a big game here against an average Arizona defense and most importantly, I see Utah's defense making life miserable for a Wildcats offense that relies so much on their ability to run the ball. The Utes are built to stop the run defensively behind arguably the best d-line in the Pac-12 and one of the best in the country. Take Utah! |
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09-22-17 | Red Sox -130 v. Reds | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
3* MLB Situational Money Line 'DESTROYER' on Red Sox - I like the value here with Boston as a short road favorite against the Reds. The Red Sox clinched a playoff spot Wednesday, but still have a lot of work to do with a mere 3-game lead against the Yankees for the AL East title. This is a big time series for Boston and I at least expect them to secure a win in the opener. Red Sox come in playing some of their best baseball, as they are 11-3 over their last and 6-1 in their last 7.  They send out Rick Porcello, who has had one of the least memorable seasons for a reigning Cy Young winner. Porcello is a miserable 10-17 with a 4.46 ERA in 31 starts. However, he's been much better in the 2nd half, as he owns a 3.76 ERA in his last 14 starts, giving up 3 or less runs in 10 of those 14 outings. Cincinnati owns the worst interleague record of any club and are just 5-12 against the AL this season. The Reds are just 4-12 in their last 16 interleague home games against a team with a winning record. Red Sox are 10-1 in Porcello's last 11 interleague starts, 6-1 in their last 7 against at team with a losing record and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 series openers. Take Boston! |
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