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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-12-17 | Chargers v. Jaguars UNDER 41 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
3* NFL Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Chargers UNDER I believe we have a great matchup here for a low scoring game that will finish well below the mark set by the books. By now most everyone is aware of how good this Jacksonville defense has been this season. The Jaguars lead the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 14.6 ppg and are 3rd in total defense, allowing just 281.3 ypg. The key here is that defense is built to stop the pass, as they are allowing a league-low 156.4 passing yards/game. Rivers and the Chargers' offense is built around the passing attack and that's evident by the fact that they rank 25th in rushing (88.9 ypg) and 12th in passing (243.9 ypg). I look for LA to have a really difficult time moving the ball here. As good as the defense has been, the Jaguars don't put the same fear into opposing teams when their offense has the ball. Jacksonville's primary focus is to just not lose the game on this side, as they are looking to grind it out by running the ball. That's perfect for a low-scoring game, as they are going to up up the clock and limit the possessions. Take the UNDER! |
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11-12-17 | Vikings -1.5 v. Redskins | 38-30 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
4* NFL VEGAS INSIDER on Vikings - I like the value here with Minnesota laying a short number against the Redskins on Sunday. Washington is coming off an impressive 17-14 win at Seattle, but were very fortunate to get the victory, as they needed a last second touchdown for the win and benefited from the Seahawks missing 3 field goals. I believe it has the Redskins getting a little too much respect here, even as a short home dog, as they are just decimated with injuries on both sides of the ball. At the same time, this Vikings team is one of the best in the NFL and come in having won 4 straight and are also off a bye, which is a huge advantage this late in the season. Washington has failed to score 20 points in each of their last 2 games and I don't see them breaking that streak here against one of the best defenses in the NFL, who has had two weeks to game plan for them. Vikings have covered 3 straight and that's a good thing, as they are an impressive 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games when they have covered 2 or more games in a row. Washington is just 3-12-3 ATS in their last 18 after totaling less than 250 total yards in their previous game and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take Minnesota! |
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11-11-17 | Oregon State +22 v. Arizona | 28-49 | Win | 100 | 56 h 46 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Oregon State + I like the value here with the Beavers catching a huge number against the Wildcats. Oregon State has been playing much better football of late, as they are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 and haven't lost by more than 14 in each of their last 3 games. There's no question that Arizona is the better team, but it's asking a lot for the Wildcats to bring the intensity needed to turn this into a blowout. In fact, this is a horrible spot for Arizona, who are coming off a crushing loss at USC last week, which ended any hopes they had of winning the South and playing in the Pac-12 title game. Wildcats are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 conference games, while the Beavers are 10-4 against the number in their last 14 conference games. Arizona is also just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 off a SU loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in November. On top of that the Beavers are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including a 6-1 ATS mark in their last 7 trips to Arizona. Take Oregon State! |
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11-11-17 | Alabama v. Mississippi State +14 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 37 h 4 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Prime Time UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Mississippi State + This probably won't seem like enough points for the Bulldogs to be catching at home against the Crimson Tide, but I see a ton of value here with Mississippi State catching two touchdowns in this matchup. I know the Bulldogs didn't perform well against the other two top teams in the SEC, losing badly to both Georgia and Auburn, but both of those came on the road. Not only is Mississippi State playing at home this time, but it couldn't be a better spot with this being a prime time night game, which means the crowd is going to be electric. I believe the biggest key to slowing down Alabama is a strong defensive front that can keep the Crimson Tide from running it at will. I believe Mississippi State has the talent up front and the numbers back that up, as they are allowing just 84 yards/game and 2.9 yards/carry against the run at home this season. I also think the mobility of Bulldogs starting quarterback Nick Fitzgerald gives Mississippi State some hope offensively. Another big factor here is the health of the Crimson Tide. Alabama recently lost star linebacker Shaun Dion Hamilton, who is second on the team with 40 tackles. They also could be without one of their top defensive linemen in Da'Shawn hand. Offensively, starting left tackle Jonah Williams is questionable. I also think Jalen Hurts is playing at less than 100%. After rushing for 100+ yards in 3 of the Tide's first 4 games, he's only averaging 38.9 ypg in the last 4. Take Mississippi State! |
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11-11-17 | Cleveland State +6.5 v. Akron | 57-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER No Analysis on late releases |
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11-11-17 | San Jose State v. Nevada -18 | 14-59 | Win | 100 | 64 h 49 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Afternoon ATS DOMINATOR on Nevada - I like the value here with the Wolf Pack at home against an awful San Jose State team. Nevada might not look like a team that should be laying three scores, as they are just 1-8 on the season, but that just goes to show how bad this Spartans team is. San Jose State's only win on the season came against FCS foe Cal Poly, as they are 0-8 against FBS opponents. The Spartans have been especially bad on the road, where they are 0-5 and losing by an average of 30.8 ppg. While Nevada is just 1-3 at home, they are only getting outscored at home by a single point per game and are averaging a healthy 32.2 ppg at home. I just don't see San Jose State generating enough points here to keep this within 20-points. Last time out Nevada lost 14-41 at Boise State. That looks bad, but it's actually a positive for this matchup, as the Wolf Pack are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after a contest where they scored 14 or fewer points. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in November. Take Nevada! |
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11-11-17 | Michigan v. Maryland +17 | 35-10 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 46 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Maryland + I like the value here with the Terrapins catching 3 scores against the Wolverines on Saturday. The public perception on Michigan has improved dramatically the last two weeks with blowout wins over both Rutgers (35-14) and Minnesota (33-10). The thing is both of those games came at home. Even with the recent change at quarterback to red-shirt true freshman Brandon Peters, the Wolverines still offer little to no threat of a passing attack. In fact, Michigan hasn't thrown for more than 200 yards in each of their last 5 games. While the running game has been strong, they are averaging over 30 yards less than their season average on the road and just 4.1 yards/carry compared to their season mark of 5.0. Another key factor here is this being a big lookahead spot for the Wolverines, who have a road game against Wisconsin and their huge rivalry game against Ohio State at home on deck. It's also worth noting that the Wolverines are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after a win by more than 20 points and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Maryland! |
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11-11-17 | Georgia v. Auburn +3 | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 64 h 37 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Prime Time ANNIHILATOR on Auburn + It's been smooth sailing for the Bulldogs so far this season, but I think their perfect season comes to an end Saturday on the road against Auburn. The Tigers are one of the better teams in the country that no one is talking about, as they are just a couple of breaks away from having an undefeated record. Their only two losses came on the road and one was a 8-point defeat at Clemson and the other a 4-point loss at LSU. This is without a doubt the best team that Georgia has had to play since they took on Notre Dame back in early September, which they barely escaped with a 20-19 win. They have basically gone 7 straight games without being tested and it can be tough when things have been so easy for so long and then you find yourself in a dog fight, especially on the road in a hostile environment like Jordan-Hare Stadium.  Another factor here is that while the Bulldogs are trying to stay perfect, this isn't a must-win game for them. They could lose this and as long as they win out and secure the SEC title game, they will be in the playoffs. Auburn on the other hand has everything to play for, as they can still win the SEC West with a win here and a win at home against Alabama. I think the Tigers are going to be up to the task. Take Auburn! |
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11-11-17 | Virginia v. Louisville -11 | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 49 h 6 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Vegas ATS HEAVY HITTER on Louisville - It's been a tough go of things for the Cardinals in 2017, but I like this spot for Louisville at home against Virginia. They still have one of the most potent offenses in the country behind last year's Heisman winner Lamar Jackson. The Cardinals are averaging 36.7 ppg and nearly 550 total yards on the season. While there's not the same hype around Jackson as their was last year, he's having just as good a season, throwing for 2,800 yards and 18 touchdowns and rushing for another 1,000+ yards and 14 scores. I look for Louisville's offense to put up a big number here against a struggling Virginia defense that has allowed 31 or more points in each of their last 3 games. I know the defense for the Cardinals hasn't been great this season, but they should play one of their better games coming off their bye, as they have had two weeks to prepare for Virginia's offensive attack. Note that while the Cavaliers put up 40 last week against Georgia Tech, they had scored 20 or fewer in each of their previous 3 games. Another key factor here that I think will get overlooked is that this is actually a big letdown spot for Virginia. With last week's win over the Yellow Jackets the Cavaliers became bowl eligible for the first time since 2011 and only the second time since 2007. I look for them to come out flat and that should be more than enough for the Cardinals to turn this into a blowout. Take Louisville! |
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11-11-17 | St. Peter's v. La Salle -8.5 | Top | 40-61 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Opening Weekend GAME OF THE MONTH on La Salle - I really like the value here with the Explorers laying single digits at home against the Peacocks. La Salle has two of the best players in the A-10 conference in junior Pookie Powell (13.7 ppg) and senior B.J. Johnson (17.6 ppg). They also bring back experience at the point with senior starter Amor Stukes (4.3 apg). If they can get some solid productions from their bigs, I really think this is a sleeper team to watch out for in the A-10 this year. As for St. Peter's they closed out last year by winning the CIT, but the Peacocks lost 3 starters from their 23-win squad, including their top two scorers in Trevis Wyche and Quadir Welton. Take La Salle! |
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11-11-17 | Dartmouth v. Quinnipiac +1.5 | 77-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Quinnipiac + I like the value here with the Bobcats at basically a pick'em at home against Dartmouth. I believe that Quinnipiac's program is headed in the right direction under new head coach Baker Dunleavy, who is the son of former NBA player and current Tulane head coach Mike Dunleavy Sr. Bobcats big man Chaise Daniels should be the best player on the floor in this one, as the there's really not a lot to like with the Big Green, who went just 3-10 outside of Ivy League play a year ago and are expected to finish in the bottom half of the league again this year. Also, Dartmouth will be without one of their best players in junior forward Evan Boudreaux, who led the team with 17.5 ppg and 9.5 rpg, as he's not eligible to play. Take Quinnipiac! |
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11-11-17 | Canisius v. Buffalo -8.5 | 75-80 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo - I like the value here with the Bulls laying single digits at home against the Golden Griffins. Buffalo is one of the best teams out of the MAC and have a great mix of returning talent, as well as some big time new pieces. The Bulls return one of their top scorers in C.J. Massinburg, as well as last year's MAC Defensive Player of the Year in Dontay Caruthers. They also added in one of the top juco players in the country in Jeremy Harris. Nate Oats has really done a fine job here and this should be his breakout season with the Bulls. Canisius has some nice pieces, but are expected to finish in the bottom half of the MEAAC this year. Take Buffalo! |
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11-11-17 | Michigan State v. Ohio State -16 | 3-48 | Win | 100 | 45 h 21 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Early Bird NO BRAINER on Ohio State - The betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with the Buckeyes at this line after that horrible showing in last week's 24-55 loss on the road against a then unranked Iowa team. I'm showing over 70% of the tickets coming in on Michigan State and yet we have seen this line get even bigger. I'll take my chances here going against the trendy underdog pick in the Spartans and call for Ohio State to win here in a blowout. There's no question that it stings a little for Ohio State to have their playoff hopes crushed with that loss to Iowa, but everyone was saying the same thing about USC after their loss to Notre Dame and the Trojans have followed up by playing their best football. Like USC, Ohio State still has a chance to win their conference and that's definitely something worth playing for. Another thing is no team likes to be embarrassed like the Buckeyes were last week in Kinnick. That was the most points every allowed by an Urban Meyer coached team, so there's just as much motivation for the coaches as there is the players to turn this thing around. Lastly, I'm not completely sold on Michigan State being as good as everyone thinks. The win over Penn State looks great, but that was a massive letdown spot for the Nittany Lions off that crushing collapse against Ohio State the week before. I think reality sets in and we see a similar outcome to their 20-point loss at home to Notre Dame. Take Ohio State! |
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11-11-17 | Rutgers +31 v. Penn State | Top | 6-35 | Win | 100 | 63 h 7 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Rutgers + I think one of the hardest things for the public to do is factor in the emotional letdown teams like Penn State have when they go from thinking they got a shot at making the playoffs and playing for a national championship to having absolutely nothing to play for this late in the season. They just go off what they have seen to this point and here they see a big mismatch in talent with the Nittany Lions going up against the Scarlet Knights. While Rutgers is a bottom-tier team in the Big Ten, they are a respectable 3-3 in Big Ten play and are playing with confidence right now, having won 3 of their last 4. While this game means nothing to Penn State, who it means everything to the Scarlet Knights, as they want to prove themselves against one of the elite teams in the conference, plus they still need two more wins to become bowl eligible. I'm not saying Rutgers is going to pull off the upset, but I think they can certainly keep this within the massive spread here against a disinterested Penn State team. Keep in mind the Nittany Lions are now just 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 after a SU loss and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a conference loss. Take Rutgers! |
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11-11-17 | NC State v. Boston College +3 | 17-14 | Push | 0 | 60 h 7 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Public ATS DESTROYER on Boston College + The betting public is going to be all over a ranked NC State team laying just 3-points on the road against Boston College, but I like the Eagles to win and cover on Saturday. The Eagles have been a covering machine of late, cashing winning tickets in each of their last 6 games, including a 35-3 blowout win over FSU at home in their most recent game. They also won on the road over both Louisville and Virginia. A big reason for their surge has been the play of true freshman running back A.J. Dillon, who was the prize recruit for Steve Addazio this past year. Dillon has rushed for 665 in his last 5 games, which includes that epic 272 yard and 4 TD performance against Louisville. BC's offense has come to life with Dillon at the focal point, scoring 45, 41 and 35 points in their last 3 games. Not to take anything away from NC State, which is a good team, but you have to take into the account this being a horrible spot for the Wolfpack off that crushing 31-38 loss at home to Clemson, which likely cost them the ACC Atlantic title, as Clemson only has 1 conference game left and it's at home against FSU. I look for NC State to come out flat on the road and wouldn't be shocked if the Eagles won here convincingly. Take Boston College! |
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11-11-17 | Indiana -7.5 v. Illinois | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 60 h 48 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Indiana - I'm going to lay the points with the Hoosiers on the road in Saturday's battle of two Big Ten teams looking for their first conference win. I think the fact that these two teams are both 0-6 in Big Ten play has this line a lot lower than it should be, as I think the gap here in talent should have this closer to double-digits. Unlike the Fighting Illini, Indiana has at least been competitive. Out of their 6 conference losses, 3 have come by 8 points or less and the other 3 were against the top 3 teams in the league in Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin. The closest Illinois has come to a win is a 7-point loss at Minnesota and the only reason it was that close is they scored a garbage TD in the final 30 seconds. The other big key here is Indiana still has a lot to play for, as they can reach bowl eligibility if they win out. They certainly have to like their chances with a home game against Rutgers and road slate at Purdue left after this week's game. Illinois has nothing to play for and simply don't have enough offense to make this a game against a very underrated Hoosiers defense. Take Indiana! |
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11-10-17 | BYU +3.5 v. UNLV | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDERÂ No Analysis on LATE INFO INSIDERSÂ |
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11-10-17 | Southern Utah +24 v. Oregon State | 82-99 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Late Night ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Southern Utah + I think we are getting some great value here with the Thunderbirds as a massive dog in Friday's late night action against Oregon State. While the Beavers should be improved, they still got a ways to go after last year's 5-27 campaign. Simply put, this team should not be laying this big of a number here, even against one of the lower teams in the Big Sky. Take Southern Utah! |
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11-10-17 | CS Sacramento v. Colorado State -16.5 | 61-72 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Late Night VEGAS INSIDER on Colorado State - Larry Eustachy did a remarkable job with this Colorado State team a year ago, guiding the Rams to a 24-12 record despite being short-handed with just 7 scholarship players. He rightfully received MWC Coach of the Year honors. While Colorado St loses two big pieces in Gian Clavell and Emmanuel Omogbo, there's a nice nucleus coming back and some help in the form of junior college transfers. Sacramento State was expected to be a middle of the pack team in the Big Sky, but now are likely headed towards the basement with the loss of one of their best players in Marcus Graves. Just not enough talent left for the Hornets to keep this one respectable. Take Colorado State! |
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11-10-17 | Bucks v. Spurs -4.5 | 94-87 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational ANNIHILATOR on Spurs - I'll gladly back the Spurs here as a short home favorite against the Bucks. San Antonio continues to be undervalued by the books with both Leonard and Parker sidelined. It doesn't matter who is on the floor for Popovich, the Spurs are going to play at a high level, especially at home, where they are 5-1 on the season. Milwaukee is a good young team that is getting a lot of love from the books, but aren't playing up to their potential. The Bucks are just 3-5 ATS, with an 0-3-1 ATS mark over their last 4 games. While Milwaukee is expected to have Eric Bledsoe in action, that's likely going to throw off the chemistry, as it will take a few games for Bledsoe to get accustomed to his role with his new team. Spurs are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that doesn't have a winning road record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games overall. Bucks are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs the Western Conference. Take San Antonio! |
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11-10-17 | Niagara v. St Bonaventure -9 | 77-75 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on St Bonny - I'll back the Bonnies here to win by at least 10 at home against the Purple Eagles. St. Bonaventure returns their two backcourt stars in seniors Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley, who are a big reason why the Bonnies are coming off their first back-to-back 20-wins seasons since the late 70's. This team is a legit threat to win A-10. Even though Adams isn't expected to play here because of an ankle injury, I believe there's a big enough gap here in talent for the Bonnies to turn this into a blowout at home. Take St. Bonaventure! |
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11-10-17 | Hornets v. Celtics -4 | 87-90 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
3* NBA Vegas ATS NO BRAINER on Celtics - Even with Boston expected to be without Horford and Tatum, I see a ton of value here with the Celtics laying a short number at home against the Hornets. Kyrie Irving is playing at an MVP level and there's more than enough talent available for Boston to win at home against Charlotte. The Hornets aren't exactly playing well, as they have lost 3 straight and are also a miserable 1-5 on the road, which includes a loss at NY in their most recent game, where they allowed the Knicks to shoot a ridiculous 60% from the field. Celtics are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a losing road record and the Hornets are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Boston! |
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11-10-17 | Hawks v. Pistons UNDER 209.5 | 104-111 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 60 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDERÂ No Analysis on LATE INFO INSIDERSÂ |
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11-10-17 | IUPU Ft Wayne +7 v. Oakland | 71-85 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on IPFW + I think we are getting some good value her with the Mastodons. Oakland is the favorite to win the Horizon and rightfully so, but this Fort Wayne squad should be a serious contender in the Summit. The Mastodons went just 8-8 in league play last year but had a lead in the 2nd half of every game. This is a team to watch out for with 3 double-digit scorers coming back and I'll take them and the points Friday night. Take Fort Wayne! |
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11-10-17 | South Carolina v. Wofford +6.5 | 73-52 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Wofford + I like the value here the Terriers against a South Carolina team that I'm way down on this year. The Gamecocks reached the Final 4 last year, but lost their heart and soul in Sindarius Thornwell, who averaged 21.4 ppg. They also lost two more key pieces in P.J. Dozier (13.9 ppg) and Duane Notice (10.2 ppg). South Carolina will be lucky to just make the NCAA Tournament. Wofford has some nice talent coming back, including sharpshooter Fletcher Magee, who connected on 112 3-pointers and led the team with 18.6 ppg. An outright upset isn't out of the question for the Terriers. Take Wofford! |
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11-10-17 | Alabama v. Memphis +4.5 | 82-70 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDERÂ No Analysis on LATE INFO INSIDERSÂ |
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11-09-17 | Thunder v. Nuggets UNDER 216.5 | 94-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER No Analysis on late releases |
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11-09-17 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +6.5 | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
3* Seahawks/Cardinals TNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cardinals + I like the value here with Arizona catching almost a touchdown at home against the Seahawks, as I feel the Cardinals have a great shot of winning this game outright. We can certainly expect a big time effort here from the home team, as this feels like a must-win game given how strong the NFC is as a whole and they are looking up at both Seattle and Los Angeles in their own division. The Seahawks are a big time public team and the oddsmakers have certainly inflated this line with it being a prime time game. While Seattle is 4-1 in their last 5, they just aren't playing all that great of football. The running game has been nonexistent and the offensive line is just as bad when it comes to pass protection. I think this Arizona defense will make life miserable for Russell Wilson and do enough here offensively to secure the cover. Let's also not overlook the fact that these home teams have a HUGE advantage in these Thursday games, which only adds more value here with this line. Seattle scored just 14 points in their ugly home loss to the Redskins on Sunday and are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 after failing to score at least 15 points. Seahawks are also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. Take Arizona! |
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11-09-17 | Pelicans v. Raptors -4.5 | 118-122 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational ATS NO BRAINER on Toronto - I really like the value here with the Raptors at home against the Pelicans on Thursday. Great spot to jump on Toronto and fade the Pelicans. Raptors have failed to cover 3 of their last 4, which is definitely playing into this low number. I expect a max effort here from Toronto, as this is a key game for them to get with 6 of their next 8 on the road. As for New Orleans, they come in riding a 3-game winning streak, all of which have come on the road, but it's nothing to get excited about as the wins have come against the Mavs, Bulls and Pacers. Pelicans also have road wins over the Lakers and Pelicans. Simply put their 5-2 road record is a bit of a joke given the teams they have played. The only legit team they faced away from home is the Blazers and they lost by double-digits and I expect the same thing to happen here. Raptors are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 when they come in having failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games, while Pelicans are a mere 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take Toronto! |
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11-09-17 | Pelicans v. Raptors UNDER 217 | 118-122 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER No Analysis on late releases |
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11-09-17 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh OVER 51.5 | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDERÂ No Analysis on LATE INFO INSIDERSÂ |
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11-09-17 | Ball State v. Northern Illinois UNDER 52.5 | 17-63 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Thurs. Total DESTROYER on Ball State UNDER This is simply too many points for Thursday's MAC matchup that has Northern Illinois hosting Ball State. The reason we are seeing such a big total is the fact that the Cardinals have allowed 50+ points in each of their last 3 games, but the key here is the Huskies just aren't a dynamic offensive team, as they are only averaging 26.7 ppg. Conditions are also not going to be ideal for scoring, as temps will be right around freezing with a blistering 10+ mph wind. At the same time the Ball State offense is atrocious, as they come in averaging a mere 12.4 ppg on the road. Scoring won't come any easier against this Northern Illinois defense, which is only giving up 15.7 ppg at home this season and have been dominant against bad teams like the Cardinals. UNDER is 6-1 in the Huskies last 7 home games and a staggering 13-3 in their last 16 games played in the month of November. Adding to this is a great system where we look to take the UNDER with bad teams like Ball State who have struggled to cover. UNDER is 80-38 (68%) going back to 1992 when you have a team that comes in having failed to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 playing on a Thursday. Take the UNDER! |
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11-08-17 | Lakers +9 v. Celtics | Top | 96-107 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Lakers + I like the value here with LA catching a big number here against the Celtics. While Boston failed to cover in their 120-117 win at Atlanta in their last game, they are still getting way overvalued right now by the books due to the fact that they are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. The Lakers are also playing well right now. They come in having won 3 of their last 4 and have covered the spread in all 4 of these contests. Los Angeles is getting it done on the offensive side of the ball, as they have put up 107 or more in each of their last 4 games. Boston's defense has been great early, but they weren't sharp in their last game, allowing the Hawks to hit 48% from the field. I think LA can do enough here to keep this one within the number. You also have to keep in mind this has to be a tired Celtics team, as they are playing their 6th game in the last 10 days. Boston is just 2-11 ATS in this scheduling spot over the last 2 seasons. They are also just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games when they come in having covered 3 of their last 4. Take Los Angeles! |
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11-08-17 | Knicks v. Magic -4.5 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Magic - I like the value here with Orlando laying a short number here at home against the Knicks. New York comes in having won 3 straight and are 6-1 in their last 7, but I feel it has them overvalued here in a really top spot. The Knicks had to use up a lot of energy in last night's 118-113 win over the Hornets, where they erased a 15-point deficit. It's going to be tough for them to bring the intensity required to win on the road playing on no rest. It's also their 3rd game in the last 4 days. Orlando on the other hand has had the last two days off and aren't going to be taking this game lightly after losing their last two. It's also an important game for them to win, as they have a difficult 5-game West coast trip coming up after this contest. Even with the Magic coming off back-to-back losses, they are still sitting at 6-4 on the season. The offense really let them down in their last two games and should get back on track here against a Knicks defense that has allowed 100+ in 5 straight games. Take Orlando! |
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11-08-17 | Kent State +22 v. Western Michigan | 20-48 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Wed Night NO BRAINER on Kent State + I like the value here with the Golden Flashes catching more than 3 touchdowns in Wednesday's showdown with Western Michigan. Kent State is not a good football team. They are just 2-7 on the season and come in off a 28-point loss at home to lowly Bowling Green. That will have a lot of people looking to lay this big number with the Broncos, but this Western Michigan team is hurting right now. The Broncos recently lost starting quarterback Jon Wassink to a broken collarbone and just don't pose the same kind of threat throwing the ball with true freshman Reece Goddard under center. It doesn't stop there, as they lost two more running backs to season ending injuries, giving them 3 RB's on IR for the year. They still have their top guy in Jarvion Franklin, but I think he's going to be asked to do too much. If Kent State can simply keep him from going off and racking up big chunk plays, it's going to be really hard for the Broncos offense to put up the kind of points needed to cover this big spread. It's also worth pointing out the books have been inflating the number on Western Michigan all season, as the Broncos are just 3-6 ATS and a mere 1-3 in their last 4. Last time out they suffered a crushing loss to Central Michigan at home and are just 6-16 ATS in their last 222 home games off a conference loss. Take Kent State! |
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11-07-17 | Thunder v. Kings +11 | 86-94 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show | |
4* NBA Public ATS ANNIHILATOR on Kings + I like the value here with Sacramento catching double-digits at home in Tuesday's late night NBA action on NBATV. Tough spot for OKC to show up with the kind of intensity needed to turn this into a blowout, as the Thunder have to have some tired legs playing in what will be their 5th road game  over their last 6. OKC has also been overvalued by the books here of late, as they are just 3-5 ATS over their last 8. I know the Kings haven't looked good and come in having lost 7 straight, but I expect a big effort here in a nationally televised home contest against one of the top teams in the league. Oklahoma City is just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Kings on the other hand are a rock solid 15-5 ATS in their last 20 when they come in having failed to cover 4 of their last 5 games. Take Sacramento! |
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11-07-17 | Akron v. Miami-OH -6.5 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Miami - I like the value here with the RedHawks laying less than a touchdown at home against the Zips. Akron comes in at 5-4 overall and 4-1 in the MAC, but are no where close to as good as their record would indicate. The Zips have been extremely fortunate in close games and the overall numbers really tell just how lucky they have been. Akron ranks 117th out of 130 FBS teams in total offense at just 330.g ypg and are 107th in total defense, giving up 444.1 ypg. While the Zips aren't as good as their record, this Miami (OH) team is much better than their 3-6 mark overall and 2-3 record in the MAC. The RedHawks have are averaging 6.2 yards/play and 427.6 ypg inside conference play, but have only been able to translate that to 25.2 ppg. With the expected return of starting quarterback Gus Ragland, I think we see Miami lay it on a bad Akron team. Note that even if Ragland doesn't play, I still like the RedHawks to win here by 7 or more. Take Miami (OH)! |
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11-07-17 | Bowling Green v. Buffalo -7.5 | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Tuesday Night VEGAS INSIDER on Buffalo - This might seem like a big number to lay on the Bulls, given they come in having lost 4 straight and the Falcons off an impressive 44-16 win at Kent State last week. I just feel this Buffalo team is a lot better than people think and I'm simply not buying anything into the Falcons win over a horrible Kent State team. The Bulls have suffered 3 heartbreaking losses during their 4-game skid. The first being that epic 7OT game against Western Michigan, which they fell 68-71. The other two were 1-point losses to both Northern Illinois and Akron. Buffalo could just as easily be 6-3 instead of 3-6, but now need to win out to make a bowl. Add in the revenge the Bulls have against this Bowling Green team (lost 6 straight) and I think we get the best they have to offer tonight at home. Prior to their blowout win over Kent State, the Falcons had 3 losses inside MAC play by double-digits. Even after holding the Flashes to just 16 points, Bowling Green still comes in allowing 30.2 ppg and 455 ypg inside conference play. That defense of the Falcons is giving up a staggering 5.5 yards/carry and more than 100 total yards over what their opponents are averaging. Take Buffalo! |
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11-07-17 | Pelicans v. Pacers UNDER 218 | 117-112 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 59 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Pacers UNDER I think we are getting some great value here with the total in Tuesday's NBA matchup between the Pacers and Pelicans. I look for this one to stay well below the mark set by the books. Indiana comes in off 3 high scoring games on the road, which is certainly playing into this total. However, the UNDER is 3-1 in the Pacer's 4 home games this season. In their last two home games they held the Spurs to just 94 points and the Kings to 83. New Orleans has two studs, but lacks shooting and have failed to eclipse 100 points in each of their last 4 games. At the same time, the Pelicans have been playing well on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 100.8 ppg over their last 5. UNDER is 14-4 in the Pacers last 18 after allowing 105 or more points in 3 straight games and 11-1 in the Pelicans last 12 road games off a road win. Take the UNDER! |
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11-06-17 | Nets v. Suns UNDER 236 | Top | 98-92 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
5* NBA Late Night VEGAS INSIDER on Nets UNDER With Brooklyn having gone OVER the total in 3 straight games, where all 3 games saw at least 235 combined points and Phoenix having allowed 112 or more points in each of their last 5 games, I think the books have made a big overreaction here with the total for tonight's game and created some big time value on the UNDER. Phoenix ranks second in the NBA in pace, but I just don't see how they are going to have the energy to push the ball up and down the floor tonight. The Suns just finished a 5-game road trip that spanned 9 days with yesterday's game at San Antonio. It's hard enough playing on no rest as it is, but this is just brutal. I look for Phoenix to really try to slow things down and that should be more than enough to keep this below the massive mark set by the books. UNDER is 12-2 in the Nets last 14 after scoring 105 or more points in 3 straight games. It's also 11-4 in the Suns last 15 when coming off a game in which they failed to cover the spread and 5-1 in their last 6 at home against a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER! |
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11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers UNDER 43.5 | 30-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
4* Lions/Packers MNF Total NO BRAINER on Packers UNDER I think we are going to see a defensive battle here on Monday Night Football between these two NFC North rivals. I also think we are getting some value here because of how high scoring this series has been, with each of the last 3 meetings seeing at least 50 combined points. That was with Aaron Rodgers starting at QB for Green Bay. Without Rodgers under center the Packers simply don't have the offensive fire-power to win in a shootout. Keep in mind they scored just 10 points against Minnesota when Rodgers suffered the injury early in that contest and just 17 the next week at home against the Saints. I look for Green Bay to come out looking to establish the run and play ball control, which should be easier than it has been with some key guys returning on the offensive line. As for the Packers defense, I think they show up in a big way here at home in a prime time game. Not that Green Bay wasn't already familiar with Detroit, but it will only help the defense given they have had a full two weeks to prepare for this contest coming off their bye. This is also a good matchup for the Packers, who are much better against the pass than they are at stopping the run. Detroit is built around Matthew Stafford and the 12th ranked passing attack, as they are just 28th in rushing at 82.1 ypg. Take the UNDER! |
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11-06-17 | Celtics v. Hawks UNDER 205 | Top | 110-107 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hawks UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA action between the Celtics and Hawks. The UNDER is an impressive 6-2 during Boston's 8 game winning streak. The Celtics have held all 8 opponents during this stretch to 94 or fewer points. Atlanta is only averaging 102.7 ppg and scoring roughly 5 points fewer than what their opponents have been allowing on the season (107.4 ppg). While the Hawks defense hasn't been great, Boston's not exactly lighting it up offensively. The Celtics are only scoring 102.9 ppg and big reason for that is they rank in the bottom 5 in pace of play. They figure to play at an even slower pace than normal tonight, as the Celtics are not only playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but their 3rd road game in the last 4 days. Atlanta is also playing for the 3rd time in 4 days, so they too won't be looking to get up and down the floor. UNDER is 6-1 in the Hawks last 7 when playing on 0 days of rest and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Celtics last 9 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game and 25-8 in their last 33 road games when coming off a win. Take the UNDER! |
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11-06-17 | Celtics -8 v. Hawks | 110-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR  on Celtics - Boston heads to Atlanta on Monday having won and covered in each of their last 8 games to improve to 8-2 after their 0-2 start to the year. The Celtics cruised to a 104-88 win at Orlando yesterday to improve to a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road this season. I think we are getting some decent value here with Boston against a bad Hawks team after they pulled off a surprising 117-115 upset win at Cleveland yesterday as an 11-point dog. While the win looks impressive, I think it's more of a result of how bad the Cavs are playing right now than Atlanta turning the corner. The Hawks are still a miserable 2-8 on the season and have yet to win a game at home. Atlanta is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games vs a team with a winning road record and just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs fellow teams from the Eastern Conference. Celtics are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 road games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs a team with a losing record and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win by more than 10 points. Take Boston! |
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11-05-17 | Raiders v. Dolphins +3 | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
4* Raiders/Dolphins SNF BEST BET on Dolphins + I like the value here with Miami catching a field goal at home against the Raiders on Sunday Night Football. The public is going to be all over Oakland, even with the Raiders off an ugly 14-34 loss at Buffalo last week, as they won't be able to get over the 0-40 loss the Dolphins suffered in their last contest, as it was a prime time game. That loss for Miami came with backup QB Matt Moore under center and it didn't help matters the Dolphins were playing on the road in a short week, as the home teams have such a huge advantage in those Thursday Night games. I expect a big bounce back effort here from Miami at home and keep in mind they now have the scheduling advantage with 3 extra days to prepare and rest up for this contest. I also don't think the Raiders are as good as people think. They had that one big game against KC at home a coupe weeks ago, but that was one of those Thursday night home games where they had a big edge and they were lucky to win. Oakland is just 1-3 on the road this season and are a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games overall. Take Miami! |
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11-05-17 | Pacers v. Knicks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Knicks UNDER I really like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's matchup between the Knicks and Pacers. I believe the number here has been inflated due to recent results, as the OVER has cashed in each of the Pacers last two games and each of the last 3 for the Knicks. These Sunday games have to be the least popular day for NBA players to play and it often leads to sluggish showings on the offensive side of the ball. That's been the case for both of these teams, as the UNDER is 15-6 in the Knicks last 21 games played on Sunday and 6-2 in the Pacers last 8 on Sunday. We also got a great system in play here favoring this one to finish below the mark. UNDER is 44-18 (71%) going back to 1996 when you have a total of 210 to 219.5 where the road team comes in having scored 105 or more points in 2 straight games and is facing an opponent that has had a combined scored of 215 or more in each of their last 3 games. Take the UNDER! |
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11-05-17 | Jazz v. Rockets -6.5 | 110-137 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Rockets - The Rockets are finally connecting on their 3-point shots. After pouring in 19 3-pointers in a 119-97 win and cover at New York on Wednesday, they fired back with 16 more made 3-pointers in Friday's 119-104 win at Atlanta. Poor shooting from the outside had really been the only thing keep ing Houston back. I like the hot shooting to continue at home against the Jazz on Sunday and wouldn't be shocked if we saw another lopsided win for the Rockets. The Jazz have been playing better than some expected after losing Hayward in the offseason, but most of their success has come at home. In fact, they are 0-3 so far on the road, where they are scoring just 89.7 ppg and getting outscored by an average of 10 ppg. Utah simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power to keep this one close and it's worth noting that the home team is a solid 7-3 ATS in there last 10 meetings in the series. Take Houston! |
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11-05-17 | Chiefs v. Cowboys UNDER 51.5 | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 118 h 36 m | Show | |
4* NFL Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Cowboys UNDER When you look at this matchup on paper you would think these two will fly over the total, as you have the Cowboys coming in averaging 28.3 ppg and the Chiefs even better at 29.5 ppg. I see it the exact opposite and expect a much more tightly contested battle where both teams try to play keep away by using their high-powered running attacks to control the time of possession. Dallas shouldn't have any problem doing that now that Ezekiel Elliot has been cleared to play. KC's run defense is one of the worst in the league, giving up 131.1 ypg (28th). As for the Chiefs, they got a pretty special young running back of their own in Kareem Hunt. He's been slowed down a bit of late on the ground, but should be able to get going here as the Chiefs are finally getting back to 100% heath on the o-line. At the same time, KC does a lot of dink and dunk stuff with their offense that works just like running the ball, as their drives take up a lot of time. UNDER is 16-7 in the Chiefs last 23 games in the month of November, 24-7 in their last 31 after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 25 or more in 2 straight games. Take the UNDER! |
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11-05-17 | Chiefs v. Cowboys -1 | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 56 h 48 m | Show | |
3* NFL ATS HEAVY HITTER  on Cowboys - I like the value with Dallas at basically a pick'em at home against the Chiefs on Sunday, especially with the recent news that Ezekiel Elliot will be playing. Kansas City has become one of the public's favorite teams to back and they come in off a convincing win over the Broncos in a prime time game on Monday Night Football. While the Chiefs defense was able to slow down Denver's anemic offense, they have been struggling on that side of the ball. One area that really concerns me with KC and their defense is their ability to stop the Cowboys rushing attack. The Chiefs are 28th in the league against the run, giving up 131.1 ypg. Note they aren't any better against the pass, ranking 29th, allowing 261.1 ypg. I look for Dallas to take full advantage of the Chiefs weakness against the run and dominate the time of possession here and secure the win. Cowboys are a dominant 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when they come into a contest of 2 straight road wins. They are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 30 or more points and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 off a game where they covered the spread! Take Dallas! |
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11-05-17 | Redskins +7.5 v. Seahawks | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 141 h 40 m | Show | |
3* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Redskins + I know Washington is dealing with some injuries and are off an ugly 19-33 loss at home to the Cowboys, but I think it's created some great value and I'll take my chances with the Redskins at this pice. That game against Dallas was also a lot closer than the final score would indicate. Washington was within a touchdown late in the 4th quarter before Dallas added a garbage TD with less than 30 seconds to play. The Seahawks have won 4 straight, but needed everything they had to escape with a 41-38 win at home over the Texans last week. They also had a very fortunate 16-10 win over the Rams during this stretch. LA fumbled a TD out of the end zone and had 5 turnovers on the game. I still have concerns with the offensive line and the defense will be without one of their most important pieces in safety Earl Thomas. Keep in mind they weren't the same on that side of the ball last year when he went on IR. I think Cousins and the Redskins offense can do enough here to keep this within the number. Take Washington! |
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11-05-17 | Hawks +13 v. Cavs | 117-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued UNDERDOG on Hawks + I really like the value here with Atlanta as a big dog agains the Cavaliers on Sunday afternoon. I know the Hawks are one of the bottom feeders this season, but we can expect a max effort here from Atlanta against Cleveland, as the Cavs get everyone's best shot. Cleveland comes in off a 130-122 win at Washington, where they somehow found themselves in a dog fight despite James going off for 57 points. That's not a good sign and the defense was once again awful, allowing the Wizards to shoot 53.6% from the field. Cleveland had lost 4 straight overall and 6 straight against the spread prior to that win and cover over Washington. That included outright losses to both the Nets and Knicks, who I would put in a similar class to Atlanta. Cavs are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take Atlanta! |
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11-05-17 | Rams v. Giants UNDER 42 | Top | 51-17 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 56 m | Show |
5* NFC Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rams UNDER With both the Rams and Giants coming off of their bye weeks, I expect a much lower scoring game than we would have got had these two been playing on normal rest. Each has had two weeks to prepare for the other side and that's a big advantage for these defenses. I also think there's some hidden value here with New York's defense, as they are very familiar with the schemes of McVay and the Rams from his time with the Redskins. As for the Giants offense, there's not a lot to be excited about. New York's down a couple of starters on the offensive line in center Weston Richburg and left guard Justin Pugh. Even when healthy the unit hasn't been. That combined with no threat of a running game and a passing attack that's missing their two star wide outs and it's going to be hard for New York to sustain drives against this improving LA stop unit. UNDER is a rock solid 9-2 in the Rams last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record and 11-3 in their last 14 games played on field turf. UNDER is also 7-1 in the Giants last 8 against a team with a winning record and 6-1 in their last 7 home games. Take the UNDER! |
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11-05-17 | Bengals +5.5 v. Jaguars | 7-23 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 28 m | Show | |
4* NFL Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Bengals + I think we are getting some great value here with Cincinnati on Sunday. The Bengals are coming off a sluggish game at home against the Colts, where they squeaked out a 24-23 win. A lot of peopler were on Cincinnati as an 11-point favorite and the week before they lost by 15 as a 4-point dog at Pittsburgh. That combined with the Jaguars coming off a win and their bye week has this line a little too inflated in my opinion. Jaguars have impressed with their 4-3 start, but have also been very inconsistent, as they have not won back-to-back all season. A big reason I think the Bengals can keep this close enough to cover and potentially win outright is their defense. Cincinnati is 5th in the NFL in total defense, allowing just 295 ypg and are giving up only 19.3 ppg. Jacksonville's strong start is more to do with their defense than their offense and they have yet to win a game this season when they have failed to score more than 20 points. Bengals are a strong 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, while the Jaguars are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a a team with a losing road record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after holding their previous opponent to 14 or less points. Take Cincinnati! |
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11-05-17 | Bucs +7 v. Saints | 10-30 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 31 m | Show | |
3* NFL Undervalued UNDERDOG on Bucs + I like the value here with Tampa Bay catching a touchdown against division rival New Orleans. It's been a miserable start for the Bucs, who had such high expectations coming into the season, but I'm not ready to throw in the towel on Tampa just yet and expect one of their better efforts of the season in this one. We are also getting a big number here as the books have no choice but to inflate this number on the Saints with them coming in having won and covered in 5 straight games. It's been a good situation to fade New Orleans in the past, as they are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games after covering the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Bucs are also a solid 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games after losing 5 or 6 out of their last 7. We also find a great system in play backing the Bucs, as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have failed to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games are 121-73 (62%) against the spread in the month of November dating back to 1983. Take Tampa Bay! |
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11-05-17 | Ravens v. Titans -3 | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 63 h 34 m | Show | |
4* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Titans - I like the value here with Tennessee laying a short number at home against the Ravens. Last time Baltimore took the field they laid a 40-0 beating on the Dolphins, but Miami's offense was without starting their starting QB and already one of the worst offensive units in the league. That was also a home game on Thursday, where the home team has a massive advantage on short rest. Prior to that the Ravens were just 1-4 in their previous 5 games with the only win coming against the Raiders without Carr. The losses during this stretch weren't good and I just don't see them being able to hang with the Titans, who return from their bye playing with a ton of confidence after winning each of their last two. Baltimore is just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games off a home win by 21+ points and just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. Titans have also had a great home field edge of late, going 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at home. Take Tennessee! |
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11-04-17 | San Diego State v. San Jose State UNDER 51 | Top | 52-7 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 26 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on San Diego State UNDER I don't see this one coming close to the total that's been set by the books, as Saturday's late night MWC action features two of the worst offenses in the country in San Diego State and San Jose State. The Aztecs are 83rd in the country in scoring at 26.2 ppg and the Spartans are 120th at a dreadful 18.9 ppg. San Diego State also ranks 98th in total offense and San Jose State is 117th. Now I could see the Aztecs eclipsing their average, as this Spartans defense isn't very good. However, I don't see them going off, as they are struggling on the offensive side of the ball right now, scoring just 45 points in their last 3 games combined. At the same time, we are still going to be in great shape if San Diego State has a big offensive game, as there's a decent chance the Spartans don't reach double-digits. The Aztecs have a top tier defense that is allowing just 15.2 ppg and 255 ypg at home this season. San Jose State has also scored 13 or fewer points in 4 separate games this year. UNDER is 27-11-1 in the Aztecs last 39 games vs a team with a losing record, 31-14 in their last 45 road games after going UNDER the total in their previous game and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 games when they come in having failed to cover 2 out of their last 3. Take the UNDER! |
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11-04-17 | Oregon +21 v. Washington | 3-38 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 1 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Oregon + I like the value here with the Ducks as a big dog against the Huskies. Washington is in a difficult place right now, as they have to deal with the pressure of knowing that another loss and their hopes of getting back to the CFB Playoffs are out the window. Oregon on the other hand is playing with some confidence after an impressive 41-20 win at home over Utah to snap a 3-game skid. The Ducks also have revenge on their minds after the embarrassing 21-70 loss they suffered at home to these Huskies a year ago. This is a much-improved Ducks team from last season, despite the fact that they only come in at 5-4. I'm confident they would have had a much better record right now had star quarterback Justin Herbert not got injured. Speaking of Herbert, I think there's a good chance he plays in this game. He's been upgraded to questionable but has been practicing with the 1st team this week. Given how much this game means to the Ducks I think he finds a way on to the field and with him this spread is way too much. In fact, Herbert could be enough to propel the Ducks to a win. Take Oregon! |
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11-04-17 | Oregon v. Washington UNDER 53.5 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 61 h 4 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Oregon UNDER I think we are going to see a much more competitive and low-scoring game than what the books are anticipating. While it's still got some holes, this Oregon defense is greatly improved over last year's team, which allowed 41.4 ppg and 518 ypg. So far through 9 games the Ducks are allowing just 29.2 ppg and 370 ypg. I also like the matchup here for Oregon. Washington's offense is built around their running game and that plays right into the strength of the Ducks defense, which comes in 16th nationally, allowing just 117.6 ypg. We can also expect a max effort here from Oregon, as they are out for revenge from last year's embarrassing 21-70 home loss to the Huskies. As for the Ducks offense, they could get back starting quarterback Justin Herbert, but I don't see them lighting up the scoreboard on the road against an elite Washington defense, which comes in 4th in the country, giving up just 12.1 ypg and 2nd in total defense at 236.2 ypg. They also matchup well with Oregon's run-first attack, as they are 2nd in the nation vs the run, giving up just 71.6 ypg and are only allowing 2.2 yards/carry. Take the UNDER! |
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11-04-17 | Mavs +13.5 v. Wolves | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued UNDERDOG on Mavs + I'm not expecting Dallas to pull off the upset, but I think this line has been inflated to the point where there's too much value on the Mavericks to pass up. Minnesota comes in having won 3 straight, but are still just 5-3 on the season and could find it hard to take Dallas all that serious given how bad the Mavs have been and how well they have been playing of late. One reason I believe Dallas can keep this closer than the books are calling for is the Timberwolves defense has been sub-par at best for the majority of this season and offense is the biggest weakness for the Mavs. Minnesota comes in allowing 113.1 ppg and opposing teams on the season are hitting 50.8% of their attempts against them. Timberwolves are just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 home games off a win, while the Mavs are a solid 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Dallas! |
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11-04-17 | Kings v. Pistons -8.5 | 99-108 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Pistons - Detroit should have no problem winning here by double-digits at home against the Kings on Saturday. I know the Pistons are in the 2nd leg of a back-to-back set, but this is a deep team that's getting outstanding production from their bench. Sacramento is also one of the worst teams in the league, who enters this game just 1-7 on the season. The Kings have been atrocious on the offensive end of the floor, as they come in averaging a futile 93.1 ppg and are shooting just 42.7% from the field on the season. They are getting outscored on average by 12.4 ppg, as the defense is giving up 105.5 ppg. I just don't see them scoring enough here, as Detroit is holding opponents to just 96.0 ppg at home. Kings haven't even eclipsed 90 points in their last 3 and have lost 4 straight by at least 12 points. Pistons are a solid 40-22 ATS over the last 3 seasons when listed as a home favorite and are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games against a team with a losing record, as well as 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs the Western Conference. Take Detroit! |
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11-04-17 | Nevada +22 v. Boise State | 14-41 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 45 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Oddsmakers ERROR on Nevada + I like the value here with the Wolf Pack catching over 3 touchdowns against the Broncos. Boise State comes in having won 4 straight and have gone 3-1 ATS during this stretch. While a good run, outside of the win at San Diego State, the other 3 weren't that impressive. I think it has them way overvalued in a bad spot here against Nevada. The Wolf Pack got off to a miserable start under first year head coach Jay Norvell, as they started out the season 0-5 before finally breaking through in a 35-21 win over Hawaii. While they lost their next two, they were impressive in defeat, losing 42-44 at Colorado State, who is one of the favorites to win the MWC and 42-45 to Air Force. As you can see the offense is starting to click, which was to be expected given Norvell's expertise on that side of the ball. Couple key factors here are Nevada has had extra time to prepare for this game coming off their bye week. This is also a big lookahead spot for Boise State, who has a huge game on deck at Colorado State, which will likely decide the Mountain Division and who represents that side in the MWC title game. Broncos are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 when listed as a favorite, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after playing their previous game on the road and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games off a conference win. Take Nevada! |
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11-04-17 | Oregon State v. California -7 | Top | 23-37 | Win | 100 | 80 h 53 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Cal - I really like the spot and the value we are getting with the Golden Bears only laying a touchdown at home against the Beavers. Oregon State is getting some love after covering each of their last 3, including a near upsets in each of their last two at home against Colorado and Stanford. Keeping it close against the Cardinal looks great on paper, but Stanford was without Love and simply aren't anywhere close to the same offensive force without him. Now the Beavers have to try and pick themselves off the mat yet again and I just don't see it happening on the road, where they are getting outscored by 29.3 ppg on the season. Cal should have beat Arizona in their last home game, but ended up losing 44-45. Their previous home game saw them knock off previously unbeaten Washington State 37-3. They also played USC tough at home and knocked off Ole Miss at home as a 4.5-point dog. Sitting at 4-5 and two road games left on the schedule, this is a must-win game for Cal if they want to make a bowl game in the first season under Justin Fuente and you can bet Fuente and his staff are going to do everything in their power to get to that 6-win mark to take advantage of the extra practice time that comes with a bowl game. Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 at home and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Cal! |
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11-04-17 | Costal Carolina v. Arkansas -23 | 38-39 | Loss | -109 | 79 h 57 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Vegas ATS HEAVY HITTER on Arkansas - The Razorbacks were able to snap a 3-game losing streak with a thrilling 38-37 win at Ole Miss this past weekend and I think they carry over that momentum into a blowout win over an inferior Coastal Carolina team. Keep in mind that this a game Arkansas needs to win if they want to put themselves in a position to make a bowl, as they are just 3-5. While I'm sure the Razorbacks aren't happy with their record, three of their losses came on the road against better teams in conference play and the other two were at home against ranked teams. This is the easiest opponent they have had since their opening week 49-7 win over FAMU. Coastal Carolina won their opener over UMass in their first game at the FBS level, but it's been all downhill since, as the Chanticleers have lost 7 straight. This is by far their toughest challenge to date and I just see them keeping it close. Despite the easy schedule, they Coastal Carolina ranks 103rd in total offense at just 360.9 ypg and defensively have allowed 50+ on 3 different occasions. I look for the Razorbacks to easily eclipse 50+ here and I'll bank on the defense making enough plays to win here by more than the number. Take Arkansas! |
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11-04-17 | Ohio State v. Iowa +17 | Top | 24-55 | Win | 100 | 114 h 28 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Big 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa + I think we are getting great value here with the Hawkeyes catching 3 scores at home against the Buckeyes. Ohio State just pulled off a miraculous 39-38 win at home against Penn State when it looked like they were primed to lose and in turn have their playoff hopes come crashing to the ground. That win may have saved their season, but I also think it puts them in a prime letdown spot here on the road against a stingy Iowa team, especially with a huge home game on deck against Michigan State that could end up deciding the Big Ten East title race. This isn't a great Iowa team by any means, but they have shown they can hang with the big boys, losing at home to Penn State by just 2 in a game the Nittany Lions needed a last second touchdown to pull out the win. The Hawkeyes were dominated in yards by Penn State, but just have a way of keeping games close regardless of the gap in talent, especially at home. All 3 of their losses this season have come by a touchdown or less. That streak might come to an end, but I think they do more than enough here to cover this big number. Hawkeyes are an impressive 27-5 ATS in their last 32 games against similar teams to Ohio State who are excellent rushing teams, averaging 5.25 or more yards/carry. They are also 18-5 in their last 23 vs a team that averages 37 or more points/game. Buckeyes are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Take Iowa! |
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11-04-17 | South Florida v. Connecticut +24 | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 96 h 23 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Public ANNIHILATOR on UConn + South Florida hopes of a perfect season came crashing to an end in last weeks' shocking 24-28 home loss to Houston. While a 7-1 record might not seem like something to hang your head on, it can be tough for these small conference teams to rebound from their first defeat this late in the season. I think we see a flat USF team take the field on the road here against the Huskies, who have the offensive fire-power to keep this within striking distance for the cover. Connecticut has the 23rd ranked passing attack in the country at 292.4 ypg and that's important, as they are well equipped to play from behind, which also opens up the possibility of a back-door cover if things do get out of hand early. It's also worth noting that while USF comes in ranked 20th in the country in total defense, allowing just 319 ypg, they have not been nearly as good in league play, giving up 405 ypg in their 5 conference games. Huskies are a solid 18-7 ATS in their last 25 home games in the month of November, while the Bulls are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on the road. Take Connecticut! |
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11-04-17 | Wake Forest +14 v. Notre Dame | 37-48 | Win | 100 | 91 h 32 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Wake Forest + I like the value here with the Demon Deacons catching two touchdowns against the Fighting Irish. Considering that Notre Dame is off a 35-14 beating of NC State and have won 6 straight by at least 20 points, most will be quick to back the Irish against unranked Wake Forest. What's getting overlooked is this being a horrible spot for Notre Dame. The Irish have had to work their tails off to make up for that earlier loss to Georgia at home and it's paid off as they were No. 3 in the first CFB Playoff rankings. It would only be human nature for them to let their guard down here against an inferior opponent, especially given their last two games were both high-profile matchups against USC and NC State and to top it off they got another huge game on deck at Miami. Wake isn't an elite team by any means, but are 5-3 for a reason and just beat Louisville at home by 10. The previous two games they lost at both Clemson and Georgia Tech, but only lost each contest by 14 points. This team is battle-tested and while they might be outclassed, they are going to go in with the belief they can win. I think they give the Irish a big scare here and cover the number. Take Wake Forest! |
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11-04-17 | Stanford v. Washington State UNDER 55.5 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 55 h 34 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Stanford UNDER I think we are getting some great value here on the UNDER given the conditions here are going to be ideal for a low-scoring game. The expected game-time temperature is just above freezing at 34 degrees and there's a chance for freezing rain. That's certainly not ideal for a Washington State offense that is more reliant on their passing game than any other team in the country. The Cougars are 129th out of 130 teams in rushing at 84.1 ypg and lead the nation in passing at 386.7 ypg. At the same time, the strength of this Stanford defense is their secondary, which has allowed a mere 159 yards through the air in their last two games and held each of their last 4 opponents to under 240 yards passing. As for the Cardinals offense I think there's a good chance they are once again without star running back Bryce Love. He's listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision, but hasn't been practicing and even if he does play figures to be at less than 100%. Stanford's offense was putrid without him in their last game against Oregon State, scoring just 15 points. This is also a very good Washington State defense, that ranks 16th in total defense, giving up only 309 ypg and are allowing just 16.8 ppg at home. Take the UNDER! |
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11-04-17 | Rice v. UAB UNDER 52 | 21-52 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 6 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on UAB UNDER I just don't think there's enough offensive fire-power here to eclipse this mark set by the books. Rice is simply one of the worst offensive teams in the country. The Owls are 129th out of 130 FBS teams in scoring at 13.1 ppg and 121st in total offense at just 315.7 ypg. UAB isn't a great defensive team by any means, but are good enough to shut down Rice. The Blazers are only giving up 18.7 ppg at home. The biggest thing here is neither of these teams are any good at throwing the ball, which means a lot of run plays. That will keep the clock running and limit the number of possessions for both sides. Rice is 120th in passing at 148.4 ypg and UAB is 98th at 188.9 ypg. UNDER is 4-1 in the Blazers last 5 home games and 40 in their last 4 overall. UNDER is also 4-1-1 in the Owls last 6 off a game where they didn't cover and 3-0-1 in their last 4 on the road. Take the UNDER! |
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11-04-17 | Wisconsin -10.5 v. Indiana | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 95 h 41 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Early Bird No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Wisconsin - A big talking point with the first release of the College Football Playoff rankings is how the Badgers are 9th despite their 8-0 start. The biggest reason for Wisconsin not being higher is because of their schedule not being hard enough. No question the Badgers have been listening to what people are saying and I think we see one of their better efforts of the season, as they will be out to show everyone they are for real. Wisconsin has had some games end up closer than expected, but none of them were every really in doubt. At the same time, their defense is the real deal. The Badgers are 5th in the country, giving up just 268.1 ypg. I think we see that defense make life miserable for the Hoosiers, who scored just 14 against Penn State and 9 against the Spartans, two defenses that I would rank on par with the Badgers. I also don't think Indian's defense is as good as people think. They gave up 27 to a bad Michigan offense at home and last week allowed 42 to a Maryland team that has a 3rd string QB. Hoosiers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 at home. Badgers have been a covering machine on the road, cashing in 8 of their last 9 ATS away from home. Take Wisconsin! |
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11-04-17 | East Carolina v. Houston UNDER 64.5 | 27-52 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 5 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Houston UNDER I think we are getting some great value here with the total in Saturday's AAC matchup that has Houston hosting East Carolina. I just feel the total here is way to high for this matchup. East Carolina's defense has allowed 50+ on 4 different occasions, but are coming off their best showing, holding BYU to 17 in their last game. The key here is the Cougars just aren't an explosive offensive team. They have only eclipsed 30 points in 3 of their 8 games this season and have not scored over 40 once. That includes a game against Texas Tech's horrific defense where they only managed 24 points. Most of the teams that have exposed the Pirates defense have done so through the air. Houston has become more of a run first team of late, rushing 40 or more times in each of their last 4 games. Another key here for ECU's defense is they have had two weeks to prepare for this game coming off their bye. I think that will be more than enough to keep this under the mark. UNDER is 11-2 in the Cougars last 13 home games off a win, 20-9 in their last 29 when listed as a favorite and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 games on Saturday. Take the UNDER! |
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11-03-17 | Hornets v. Spurs UNDER 199 | 101-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Spurs UNDER I don't see Friday's matchup between the Spurs and Hornets reaching 200 points, as I expect both teams to bring the defensive intensity in this one. San Antonio has followed up a 4-0 start by dropping their last 4. The most recent being a 92-112 loss to the Warriors at home last night. San Antonio isn't use to stretches like this and know the best way to get back on track is to turn up the defensive pressure. Charlotte has won 3 straight and are off a 126-121 win over the Bucks. Head coach Steve Clifford wasn't exactly happy with the victory. He said it was the worst showing on defense the Hornets have had this season. I expect his team to respond with a big time effort. It will help they are catching the Spurs in the second game of a back-to-back. San Antonio has also been struggling offensively here of late, scoring 94 or fewer points in each of their last 4 games. Keep in mind these are two teams that rank in the Top 10 on the season in defensive efficiency. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Hornets last 5 road games, 5-2-1 in the Spurs last 8 against the Eastern Conference and 6-1 in their last 7 games played on Friday. Take the UNDER! |
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11-03-17 | Hornets v. Spurs -3 | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
3* NBA Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Spurs - It's been a tough go of things for San Antonio here of late. The Spurs have lost 4 straight after starting out the season 0-4. With Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker still sidelined, I think the perception on this team has taken a big hit and thus they are showing big time value here as a slim 3-point home favorite. One thing that is getting overlooked is that the Spurs have played just 3 home games and 3 of the 4 losses during their skid have came on the road. The other was at home last night against the best team in the league in the Warriors. In their previous two home games they knocked off a quality opponent, beating the Timberwolves 107-99 and the Raptors 101-97. While Charlotte has been playing well, they aren't on the same level as those two teams and are just 1-2 on the road. Spurs shooting of late hasn't been great, but they are an impressive 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a stretch where they went 3 straight games shooting 42% or worse from the field. Take San Antonio! |
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11-03-17 | Rockets -8 v. Hawks | Top | 119-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockets - I'll gladly back Houston laying single digits on the road against the Hawks. The Rockets are coming off their best performance since their opening win at Golden State, as they knocked off the Knicks 119-97 in New York. Houston finally got going from long-distance with 19 3-pointers and their poor shooting from the outside had played a big role in their slow start. Atlanta simply doesn't have the talent to keep this one competitive. The Hawks have lost 7 straight since their opening win over the Mavs, who are another team competing for the honor of worst team in the league. Atlanta is one of the worst shooting teams, connecting unjust 42.6% of their field goal attempts. They are also not good defensively, giving up 109 ppg. Adding incentive here for Houston is the fact that they have lost 7 straight to Atlanta, with the last win in the series coming all the way back in 2013. Don't doubt for a second that's not on the mind of the Rockets players. That should be more than enough motivation for them to turn this into a blowout. Take Houston! |
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11-03-17 | Bulls v. Magic -8 | 105-83 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational HEAVY HITTER on Magic - This might seem like a big number for the Magic to be laying, but few teams are playing as well as Orlando out of the gates and the Bulls are in the running for the honor of being the worst team in the league. I mean Chicago's starting five is a joke. It's expected to be rookie Lauir Markkanen, Brook Lopez, Justin Holliday, Jerian Grant and David Nwaba. So far the Bulls only win has come at home against the equally pathetic Hawks. Their 6-point loss at Miami on Wednesday is their smallest margin of defeat and the Heat aren't exactly playing well. The Magic's only two losses have come on the road in their impressive 6-2 start and they are getting it done on both sides, averaging 114.9 ppg and have held half their opponents under 100 points. They should be able to do whatever they want here against the Bulls on offense and Chicago just doesn't have the offensive fire-power. Bulls are averaging a mere 88 ppg over their last 5. Take Orlando! |
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11-03-17 | Marshall v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 66.5 | 25-30 | Win | 100 | 33 h 7 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Friday Night Total NO BRAINER on FAU/Marshall UNDER I think we are getting an inflated total here in Friday's C-USA East showdown between FAU and Marshall. Lane Kiffin and the Owls have been lighting it up on the offensive side of the ball inside conference play at 51.7 ppg. On the other side Marshall is coming off a game against FIU that had 71 combined points and have scored 30+ in each of their last 3. The books have no choice but to set the total here higher than it should be, as the public is going to look to pound the over with this being a prime time game. What's getting overlooked is just how big of a game this is. The winner of this game will be in a great position to win the East Division and play in the C-USA title game. I'm not saying these two teams aren't going to put up points, just not at the rate needed to eclipse this total. Unlike a lot of high-scoring teams that sling it all over the place, FAU is built around their rushing attack, which ranks 8th in the country at 295.9 ypg. I'm willing to bet they don't run all over the Herd, who own a top tier defense for a non-Group of 5 team. Marshall ranks 15th in scoring defense (17.6 ppg) and 24th in total defense (325.6 ypg). UNDER is 21-8 in Marshall's last 29 road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3, 11-3 in their last 14 in the second half of the season and 10-2 in their last 12 vs a conference opponent. Take the UNDER! |
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11-03-17 | Marshall +7 v. Florida Atlantic | 25-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 47 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Friday Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Marshall + We are getting great value here with the Thundering Herd against FAU. Marshall is simply getting undervalued off a loss at home to FIU in their last game, where they lost 30-41 as a 15-point favorite. That's not as bad as loss as it looks, as FIU is better than they get credit for. It was also a bit of a misleading final, as the Herd outgained the Panthers by over 100 yards and had a 29-12 edge in first downs. On the other side of this, FAU is overvalued off four straight covers where they have by a minimum of 14 points. The Owls also get a lot of love because the public is familiar with their head coach in Lane Kiffin. This is a really tough matchup for FAU, as their offense is built around their running game and the Thundering Herd are a top tier defense, giving up just 17.6 ppg and 326 ypg. They only allow 124 ypg and 3.5 yards/carry against the run. If the offense isn't clicking, the Owls could be in trouble, as their defense isn't anything special, as they have allowed 28 or more points 5 different times, including each of their last 3. I think this should be closer to a field goal, making this an easy play at this price. Keep in mind the Owls are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 as a home favorite. Take Marshall! |
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11-02-17 | Lakers v. Blazers UNDER 210 | 110-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
3* NBA Late Night Total DESTROYER on Lakers/Blazers UNDER One of the things that I think is getting overlooked with this Lakers team early on is their improvements on defense. Last year LA ranked dead last in the league in defensive efficiency at 110.6. This year they are sitting at 6th at 100.0. I know it's early, but that's a very encouraging sign. I think that defense will play a big role in tonight's game against the Blazers, who are going to have tired legs after last night's overtime loss to the Jazz. Their stars in McCollum and Lillard both played more than 40 minutes. At the same time, I think Portland still shows up here defensively in a nationally televised game on TNT. I just don't think they have their normal pace offensively. Blazers are another team that's started out much better on the defensive side, as they ranked in the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency and are in the Top 5 to start out 2017. Take the UNDER! |
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11-02-17 | Idaho +18 v. Troy | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Sun Belt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Idaho + I think the Vandals are showing some great value here as a 3-score dog against the Trojans. Troy was already getting a ton of love from the books prior to their win over LSU and this line is certainly inflated because of that. For those that have looked the other way and faded the Trojans, they are making some nice profits, especially going against Troy at home, where they are 0-4 ATS on the season. Not only are we taking advantage of a line that's a lot higher than it should be, I also think this Idaho team is better than they get credit for. They come at just 3-5, but only lost by 9 on the road to Western Michigan and by just 3 at home to a very good Appalachian State team. I think they make a game of this and wouldn't be shocked if they pulled off the upset. Troy is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 weekday games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Take Idaho! |
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11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets +3.5 | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 55 h 8 m | Show | |
4* Bills/Jets TNF ATS NO BRAINER on Jets + I'll take the points here with New York at home, as I think the Jets win this game outright. NY has been playing better than anyone anticipated and as a result have been a covering machine here of late. Since getting blown out on the road against the Raiders in Week 2, the Jets are 3-3 SU and 5-0-1 ATS. They could just as easily be riding a 6-game winning streak, as all 3 losses came by 7 points or less. This game has a little extra meaning for the Jets, who lost at Buffalo 12-21 back in Week 1. While the Bills were able to pull away late for the cover as a 7-point favorite, that game was much closer than the final score and could have easily went the other way. With Buffalo faced with the tough task of playing on the road with a short week of prep. The Bills are also in a bit of a letdown spot here after that big home win over the Raiders and I'm still not convinced they are as good as their 5-2 record. Neither does Vegas, as Buffalo is still at 40 to 1 to win it all (same odds as Packers, Lions, Titans, Jaguars). Bills have ran over their last 2 opponents on the ground, but are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 after rushing for 150+ yards in each of their last 2 games. They Jets are a solid 19-6 ATS in their last 25 home games off a home loss and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 homes games. Take New York! |
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11-02-17 | Navy -8 v. Temple | Top | 26-34 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 34 m | Show |
5* NCAAF American Athletic (AAC) GAME OF THE MONTH on Navy - I look for the Midshipmen to lay it on the Owls Thursday in big time revenge game for Navy, who lost to Temple in last year's AAC Championship Game. The Midshipmen are also going to be locked in after losing their last two against two of the better teams not just in the ACC but the country in Memphis and UCF. Note that Navy was right there with both of those teams and could have easily won each contest. Temple on the other hand has lost 4 of 5 with their only win coming against a sad East Carolina team. The Owls just lost at Army in OT and prior to that fell 24-28 as a double-digit home favorite to UConn. I just don't see Temple's defense being able to slow down Navy's triple-option attack. That will have the Midshipmen dominating the time of possession and I look for them to pull away in the 2nd half for a comfortable double-digit win. Navy has been a covering machine when they get the chance to play on Thursday, going 5-1 ATS in their last 6. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played in November. Take Navy! |
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11-02-17 | Ball State v. Eastern Michigan -23.5 | Top | 14-56 | Win | 100 | 69 h 46 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Mid-American (MAC) GAME OF THE MONTH  on Eastern Michigan - I got no problem laying this big number with the Eagles at home against the Cardinals. You will have a hard time finding a team that's playing worse than Ball State right now. They are 0-4 inside MAC play with the average loss coming by 42 points/game. The Cardinals are averaging a mere 8.0 ppg and giving up 50 ppg. Eastern Michigan is one of the better 2-6 teams you are going to find, as the Eagles have simply had some bad luck during their current 6-game losing streak, which has seen them lose all 6 games by a touchdown or less. That trend comes to an end tonight against the Cardinals. Note that Eastern Michigan lost at Toledo by 5, to W Michigan by 3 and at N. Illinois by 3. It just so happens that Ball State has also played those 3 teams and in those games were outscored 119-29. Cardinals are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off a loss by 10 or more and the Eagles are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after the first month of the season and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after rushing for fewer than 100 yards in their previous game. Take Eastern Michigan! |
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11-01-17 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 204.5 | 98-119 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
4* NBA Late Night Total BAILOUT on Clippers UNDER I think we are getting some value here with the total, as this one has all the signs of a game that is going to stay UNDER the mark set here by the books. Los Angeles is coming off an embarrassing 28-point loss at home the Warriors, where they gave up 141 points to Golden State. I expect the Clippers to bounce back in a big way on the defensive side of the ball. Keep in mind that they came into that game having held 4 of their first 5 opponents under 100 points with the Blazers 103 the most they had allowed in a single game. Dallas might be lucky to break 90, as they are scoring just 90.3 ppg on the road this season. The Mavs also play at one of the slowest paces in the league. Only Chicago and Utah are playing at a slower pace. Add that with the Clippers not being as up-tempo as years past with Chris Paul no longer running the point and there just doesn't figure to be enough possessions to eclipse this mark. Take the UNDER! |
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11-01-17 | Blazers v. Jazz UNDER 195 | 103-112 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz UNDER Utah is your ideal NBA team for low-scoring games. The Jazz are playing at the slowest pace of any team in the league, while ranking near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency and near the top in defensive efficiency. As low as this total might seem given today's high-scoring NBA, the average score in Utah's game this season is just 184.1 ppg. The fact that the Jazz are playing at home is also important to note. Not only do opposing teams tend to struggle away from home, Utah is one of the more difficult places to play because of the thin air. So far this season they are only giving up 88.2 ppg at home. Portland is a good offensive team, but we saw them score just 85 last time out at home against the Raptors. The Blazers are also playing really good defense, limiting opponents to just 98.3 ppg. UNDER 5-1-1 in Utah's 7 games this season and 5-2 in Portland's 7 games. All signs point to another low-scoring game here that stays well below the mark set by the books. Take the UNDER! |
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11-01-17 | Astros +155 v. Dodgers | 5-1 | Win | 155 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
4* Astros/Dodgers Game 7 NO BRAINER on Houston + Last year we saw the Cubs win Game 7 on the road in Cleveland and I think we see Houston pull off the same feat tonight in Los Angeles. That day off between Game 5 and Game 6 really helped the Dodgers bullpen, but just about all of their top guns out of the pen pitched, including a 6 out save by closer Kenley Jansen. The big concern here is they have to send out Yu Darvish for the start in Game 7 and many will remember how poorly he threw in Game 3, giving up 4 runs before being pulled with 2 outs in the 2nd inning. I know Kershaw is available out of the pen and will likely pitch, but I'm not so sure that's a good thing after his struggles in Game 5. I just think this game is going to come down to which offense can produce and I trust the Astros young hitters a lot more, especially after a bad showing like they had in Game 6. Astros are 16-5 in their last 21 road games after scoring 1 run or less, as they have come back with just over 5 runs/game in this spot. Take Houston! |
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11-01-17 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan -3.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 48 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Wednesday NO LIMIT TOP PLAY on Western Michigan - I think we are getting some great value here with the Broncos laying less than a touchdown at home against the Chippewas. Western Michigan will be without starting quarterback Jon Wassink, but I liked what I saw out of true freshmen Reece Goddard when he came in and guided Western Michigan to an overtime win at Eastern Michigan. The big key here with Goddard and the Broncos offense is they shouldn't need him to throw the ball a lot to have success against this Central Michigan defense. Western Michigan comes in with the 20th ranked rushing attack in the country, averaging 235.6 ypg. They have been even better than that with 252 ypg in conference play. The Chippewas are 98th against the run, giving up 192.1 ypg and have allowed 200+/game over their last 3. I also think the Broncos defense can keep Central Michigan's offense in check. Sure the Chippewas put up 56 last time out against Ball State, but the Cardinals defense is atrocious. Prior to that Central Michigan has scored 17 or fewer in 4 of their previous 5 games. I think they revert back here and struggle to make a game of this. Take Western Michigan! |
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11-01-17 | Pacers v. Cavs UNDER 217 | 124-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Pacers UNDER This might feel like it's not enough points with how poorly the Cavs have been playing defensively, but I expect Cleveland to tighten things up against one of their Central Division rivals. Another thing is that the Cavs aren't clicking offensively, scoring just 101 ppg over their last 3. That offense will be put to the test by an Indiana defense that has each of their last two opponents under 95 points. We can bank on a strong effort here by the Pacers against Cleveland, who is the measuring stick for all these other Eastern Conference teams. I also don't think we see a fast pace here. Cleveland's the oldest team in the league and their coach has flat out called them out of shape. Indiana on the other hand is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and their 3rd in 4 days. The UNDER is a strong 34-14 in the Pacers last 48 when playing 3 in 4. We also find a strong system in play. The UNDER is 35-13 (73%) when you have a total of 210 to 219.5 involving a team that's gone under the total by 12 or more points in two consecutive games (Pacers) and are playing a division opponent. Take the UNDER! |
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11-01-17 | Pacers +10.5 v. Cavs | 124-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued UNDERDOG on Pacers + I like the value here with Indiana catching double-digits against the Cavaliers. Cleveland is simply getting way too much respect for what they have done in the past and not based on how they are playing. The Cavs aren't playing any defense, their head coach has called them out of shape and the offense lacks chemistry without Irving at the point. Cleveland has lost 3 straight overall and 5 in a row against the spread, with two losses outright as double-digit favorites. Indiana on the other hand is playing better than anyone expected after they traded away Paul George and as a result are 4-1 ATS in their last 5. I think this one means a lot more to the Pacers than it does the Cavs and wouldn't be shocked if we saw Indiana pull off the upset. Cleveland is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 off an upset loss as a home favorite and 0-8 ATS when off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 or more. Take Indiana! |
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10-31-17 | Astros v. Dodgers -112 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
3* Astros/Dodgers Game 6 BEST BET on Dodgers - I think we are getting great value here with Los Angeles laying a short number at home, as I'm confident they send this to a Game 7. The Dodgers will send out Rich Hill against Justin Verlander. Hill allowed just 1 run on 3 hits with 7 strikeouts in 4 innings of Game 2. I expect another strong outing from Hill, who has a 2.77 ERA in his 3 postseason starts. I also think we see Hill give the Dodgers a few more innings here than normal in this spot.  Houston will send out Verlander, who pitched well against Hill in Game 2, but made a couple mistakes that resulted in 3 runs on 2 homers. Note that was his first postseason start on the road this postseason and he had a 4.18 ERA on the road this season (3.19 ERA overall). He’s came out and said he doesn’t like the baseballs they are using for the World Series and I think he struggles enough here for the Dodgers to secure the win at home.  Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 after a loss and 5-1 in their last 6 playoff home games. Take Los Angeles! |
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10-31-17 | Bowling Green v. Kent State +3 | 44-16 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Tuesday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Kent State + I like the value here with the Golden Flashes catching a field goal at home against the Falcons. Bowling Green is just 1-7 and simply don't deserve to be laying points on the road. Keep in mind this team was only a 1.5-point home favorite against FCS foe South Dakota earlier this season. The Falcons come in off an ugly 17-48 loss at home to Northern Illinois and are now giving up a staggering 37.7 ppg. Teams are running all over the, as they are giving up 258 yards/game and 5.6 yards/carry against the run. They are also giving up 8.3 yards/pass attempt. I know this Kent State offense has been horrible, but this is a team they can have success against, especially with the game at home. Bowling Green is a miserable 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 2-6 in their last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after a loss by more than 20 points. Take Kent State! |
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10-31-17 | Suns v. Nets UNDER 230.5 | 122-114 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER on Nets UNDER I like the value here with the total in Tuesday's NBA action between the Suns and Nets. I think the books have set the total way too high for this contest. Brooklyn's offense has struggled the past two games, scoring just 86 at New York and 111 at home to the Nuggets. The more telling stat is that the Nets have shot under 42% from the field in 4 straight games. Phoenix has been playing much better on defense under interim coach Jay Triano, allowing just 105.7 ppg after giving up 128.7 ppg under Watson. They have also been a lot better at defending the 3-point shot. Offensively the Suns are only scoring 102.5 ppg and a mere 97.5 ppg on the road. I just don't see enough offense here from Phoenix for this to go over this high total. UNDER is 5-2-1 in the Nets last 8 against a bad team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 10-4-2 in their last 16 after giving up 100 or more points in their previous game. Take the UNDER! |
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10-31-17 | Kings v. Pacers UNDER 209.5 | 83-101 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Pacers UNDER No analysis on late plays |
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10-30-17 | Broncos +7 v. Chiefs | 19-29 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 40 m | Show | |
3* Broncos/Chiefs MNF ATS ANNIHILATOR  on Broncos + I like the value here with the Broncos catching a touchdown here against the Chiefs. While KC has been the better team to this point, the Chiefs have dropped two straight and these division games have a way of being closer than expected regardless of how a team is playing. I think Denver's defense is going to be the difference here, as I think they got the weapons to keep KC's offense in check. They have been one of the best in the league against the run and are loaded with talent in the secondary. On the flip side of this, opposing teams have had their way with this Kansas City defense of late and I think the loss of Eric Berry is really being felt, as they just don't have anyone to matchup with opposing tight ends. Just look at how the Raiders offense picked apart this defense and went right back to struggling against the Bills on Sunday. Chiefs are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after giving up 30+ points in their previous game, while the Broncos are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 off a SU loss. Take Denver! |
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10-30-17 | Magic +7.5 v. Pelicans | 115-99 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Magic + While the Magic just lost and failed to cover in yesterday's 113-120 loss at Charlotte as a 4-point dog, I really like how Orlando is playing to start the year. This is a young team that is out to prove to the rest of the league they must be taken seriously this season and they are shooting lights out, hitting 48.4% from the field and 43.5% from behind the 3-point line. They already have blowout wins over both the Cavaliers and Spurs and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they don't win this one outright. New Orleans has two studs in Davis and Cousins, but I lack depth and are in a prime letdown spot after that huge comeback win in Boogie's return to Sacrament and blowout win over LeBron James and the Cavs on Saturday. Pelicans are just 13-29 ATS in their last 42 off a home blowout win by 20 or more points and a miserable 2-13 ATS when they are off an upset win by 15 or more as a home dog. Take Orlando! |
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10-30-17 | 76ers v. Rockets UNDER 216.5 | 115-107 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 11 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Sixers UNDER I expect a highly competitive game on Monday when the Rockets host the 76ers in Houston. While Philadelphia is just 2-4 on the season, their 4 losses have come against the Wizards, Celtics, Raptors and these same Rockets. That defeat to Houston came last Wednesday, where the 76ers lost on a last second shot. Those two combined for just 209 points and that was with a huge 64 point 1st quarter. After that neither team scored more than 26 in a single quarter and I look for defense to again be the story with the familiarity these two teams now have with each other. Both teams could also be missing some key scorers. Philadelphia's J.J. Redick is questionable with a back injury and Houston, who is already without Chris Paul, could be minus Eric Gordon, who is also questionable. Houston is considered a great OVER team, but that's just not been the case this season. They went OVER the total in their opener at Golden State, but have since went UNDER in 6 straight games and it's just as much their offense not producing at the same level as it is their improved play defensively. Take the UNDER! |
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10-30-17 | Wolves v. Heat UNDER 216.5 | 125-122 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Heat UNDER The books have set the bar to high for Monday's matchup between the Timberwolves and Heat. Minnesota is coming off a huge 119-116 home win over the Thunder and the OVER is 5-0-1 in their 6 games this season. I believe that has this total number a bit higher than it should be. It's only a matter of time before Thibodeau gets the Timberwolves playing better on the defensive side of the ball and I expect a big effort here coming off 2 days of rest. I also think we get a strong  effort here from Miami at home, as they will be trying to avoid a third straight loss. UNDER is 13-2 in the Wolves last 15 road games after a contest in which they covered the spread and 10-0 in their last 10 road games off an upset win over a division rival as a home dog. We also have a great system in play here backing a low-scoring game. UNDER is 32-8 (80%) going back to 1996 when you have a total of 210 or more and a game featuring a well-rested team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, who had a losing record the year before. Take the UNDER! |
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10-29-17 | Steelers v. Lions +3 | 20-15 | Loss | -107 | 116 h 4 m | Show | |
4* Steelers/Lions SNF ATS ANNIHILATOR on Lions + I like the value here with Detroit catching a field goal at home against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. The Lions have a huge scheduling advantage here coming off their bye and are going to be extremely motivated to get a win sitting at 3-3 and having lost their last two. Note that Detroit is a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a bye. It's well documented that the Steelers offense doesn't produce at the same level on the road. On top of that, I think this is a bad matchup for Pittsburgh. In the Steelers two losses this season they failed to reach 100 yards. The only time they won with less than 100 on the ground was Week 1 at Cleveland and they barely snuck out a 21-18 win. The strength of the Lions defense is their ability to stop the run. They come in 7th in the league, giving up just 94.3 ypg and have held opponents under 90 yards in 4 of their 6 games this season. While Pittsburgh's offense gets worse on the road, Detroit is a team that seems to alway put up points at home. The Lions are doing just that in 2017, scoring just over 28 ppg at home. As good as the Steelers defense has been playing, I think the Lions are able to do enough here offensively to get the win. Take Detroit! |
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10-29-17 | Steelers v. Lions UNDER 46.5 | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 44 h 51 m | Show |
5* Steelers/Lions SNF VEGAS INSIDER on Steelers UNDER I think we are going to see an offense struggle in Sunday's showdown between the Steelers and Lions. Detroit is going to be ready for everything Pittsburgh throws at them, as they have had two full weeks to prepare for this game and you also have to factor in the fact that the Steelers offense has historically not performed well on the road under Roethlisberger. I think that trend continues here, as the Lions have the 7th ranked run defense (94.3 ypg), which should allow them to keep Bell in check and force Big Ben to beat him with his arm. On the other side of this, Pittsburgh might have the best defense in the league. The only two games they have allowed more than 20 points was the 23 they allowed in Chicago and 30 to the Jaguars. Note that 7 of those points in the game against the Bears came in OT and 14 of the Jacksonville's 30 were a result of two defensive touchdowns. UNDER is 20-9 over the last 3 seasons in games involving the Steelers with a total of 42.5 to 49 points. UNDER is also 11-3 in Pittsburgh's last 14 road games and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 off a win by 14 or more points. Take the UNDER! |
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10-29-17 | Magic v. Hornets UNDER 211.5 | 113-120 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational HEAVY HITTER on Magic UNDER The Magic have been impressive on the offensive side of the ball as they are scoring 118 ppg early. I think that has this total a little too high for this division showdown on the road against a hungry Hornets team that is looking to bounce back from a ugly home loss to the Rockets on Friday. Even after allowing 109 at home to Houston, Charlotte is giving up just 97.7 ppg at home on the season. I think their defense gives Orlando trouble here, plus I think we could see a flat Magic team taking the floor, as they have won 3 straight and are fresh off a blowout win over the Spurs. Both meetings in Charlotte last year finished with fewer than 203 points and the Magic scored just 81 and 88 in the two games. UNDER is 30-15 in the Hornets last 45 home games after going under the total in their previous game and 17-3 in their last 20 home games against a division opponent! Take the UNDER! |
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10-29-17 | Wizards -5 v. Kings | 110-83 | Win | 100 | 2 h 0 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Wizards - no analysis on late additions |
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10-29-17 | Cowboys v. Redskins UNDER 49.5 | 33-19 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 39 m | Show | |
4* NFL Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Cowboys UNDER I think the books have set the bar too high for Sunday's NFC East showdown between the Cowboys and Redskins. These two teams don't like each other and some consider the biggest rivalry in the league. This is also a huge game for both teams, as each comes into this one at 3-3. I know the Redskins just gave up 34 to Eagles last week, but the defense will be getting a big boost with the return of star corner Josh Norman. Not only is he an elite shutdown corner, who can shutdown Dez Bryant, but the entire defense feeds off his intensity. As for Washington's offense, I think this week could be a struggle. We already know that starting center Spencer Long and they could also be without starting left tackle Trent Williams and elite right guard Brandon Scherff. That's going to make it hard for the Cousins to get the passing game going. I think both teams will focus on the running game in this one, which should limit the possessions and keep us well below the mark. UNDER is 14-5 in the Cowboys last 19 road games and 9-1 in their last 10 on the road when they come in off a game that went OVER the total. UNDER is also 32-17 in the Redskins last 49 after 3 or more straight losses and 4-1 in their last 5 home games. Take the UNDER! |
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10-29-17 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 204.5 | 117-106 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
3* NBA Afternoon Total DESTROYER on Bucks UNDER The books have set the bar too high for Sunday's afternoon showdown between the Bucks and Hawks. The only two teams to score more than 100 points on Milwaukee this season are the Cavaliers and Blazers, who have some big time offensive weapons. Atlanta doesn't even have one top tier player on their roster and are scoring just 98.5 ppg. The only time the Hawks have eclipsed 100 points is games against bottom feeders Dallas and Brooklyn. While Atlanta is struggling to put the ball in the basket, they are playing respectable on defense. Milwaukee also isn't a great offensive team, as they just don't have a lot of shooting. Bucks are only putting up 102 ppg. I think we see both offenses fail to reach the century mark in this one. UNDER is 20-6-1 in the Bucks last 27 when facing an opponent who scored 100+ in their previous game. UNDER is also 22-8-2 in the Hawks last 32 after they allowed 100+ in their previous game and 22-9 in their last 31 after playing a non-conference game. Take the UNDER! |
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