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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-29-17 | Raiders v. Bills -2 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 108 h 28 m | Show |
5* AFC No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Bills - Everyone has fallen back in love with the Raiders after their crazy 31-30 win over the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football. I think it has created some big time value here with Buffalo laying less the a field goal at home. The Bills are sitting at 4-2 and getting absolutely no love from anyone and I think they come out with a chip on their shoulder here at home against the Raiders. The thing with Oakland's offensive explosion against the Chiefs, you have to keep in mind that KC's defense has been giving up a ton of yards this season, they have didn't get the turnovers they are accustomed to and ran out of gas in the 4th quarter. Buffaloes defense is sitting 4th in the league, giving up just 16.8 ppg and let's not forget the Raiders are only averaging 15.3 ppg on the road this season. Another key here is that west coast teams like the Raiders often struggle to get going when they have to play on the east coast in the early set of games. It's also worth noting that it's expected to be in the low 40's with a chance of rain, which I think will only add to Oakland's struggles. Raiders are just 5-18 ATS when coming off an upset win as a home dog and are 0-8 ATS when that win comes against a division rival. Take Buffalo! |
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10-29-17 | Chargers v. Patriots OVER 48 | 13-21 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 13 m | Show | |
3* NFL Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Chargers OVER With the UNDER cashing in 3 straight Patriots games, I think we are getting some great value here with a total less than 50. I know the results are a lot better, I just think they are a bit misleading. The defense turnaround started with a Thursday night game at Tampa, where Belichick's gameplan was perfect on the Bucs offense. They then held the Jets to 17, which doesn't say a lot. They then held the Falcons to just 7 on SNF last week. The thing is, Atlanta left at least 13 points on the board. I think a closer resemblance of the first 4 weeks with the Patriots defense here against Philip Rivers and the Chargers. Rivers should have a big game here. He runs the leagues 8th ranked passing attack at 251.3 ypg and will be facing the league's worst ranked pass defense, which is giving up a staggering 310.3 ypg. As for the Patriots offense, I think they have a big game of their own. New England is 6th in scoring at 27.9 ppg and lead the league with 410.7 ypg. Brady is going to get his and the Pats should be able to pick up big chunks on the ground against the Charger's league worst run defense (140.6 ypg). OVER is 22-7 in the Patriots last 29 home games vs a team with a losing road record, 7-3 in their last 10 after allowing less than 15 points and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 off a SU win by more than 14 points. Take the OVER! |
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10-29-17 | Vikings v. Browns OVER 37.5 | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 84 h 55 m | Show | |
4* NFL Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Vikings OVER I just feel there's too much value here with the OVER in Sunday's game between the Vikings and Browns in London. More times than not, defenses have struggled to play up to their potential in these games overseas. I have major concerns with Cleveland's stop unit, as I just can't imagine that the Browns are treating this like a business trip given they are going nowhere at 0-7. I don't think it's out of the question that Minnesota could get this total on their own. Note that Cleveland's defense has struggled playing away from home in the states. They allowed 24 to the anemic Ravens offense, 31 to the Colts and 33 to the Texans in their 3 road games. As bad as the Browns offense has been, I think we can get close to double-digits from them in this one. As good as Minnesota's defense has been, they have allowed at least 10 points in every game. I think they have a couple lapses here, as it will be hard for them to give Cleveland their full attention with all the distractions. Take the OVER! |
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10-28-17 | Pistons v. Clippers UNDER 208 | Top | 95-87 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
5* NBA Late Night BAILOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Pistons UNDER I like the value here with UNDER quite a bit in Saturday's late night action between the Pistons and Clippers. Los Angeles just allowed 100 points for the first time this season, as they gave up 103 points to the Blazers. The Clippers are still giving up just 91.7 ppg and that number drops to just 86 ppg at home. Detroit is a team they can lock down on and keep from putting up a big number. The Pistons have benefited from playing a soft schedule when it comes to the defenses they have faced. In fact, they are averaging just 106 ppg against teams that on average give up 107 ppg. Detroit is also not bad defensively, as they are allowing just 102 ppg and the Clippers aren't as dynamic offensively without Chris Paul running the point. The Pistons scored 122 in their last game, but that's actually a good thing for us, as the UNDER is 25-11 in Detroit's last 36 after a game where they scored 120 or more points. UNDER is also 5-1 in their last 6 home games and 4-0 in their last 4 when they are playing a team that scored 100+ in their previous game. Take the UNDER! |
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10-28-17 | 76ers v. Mavs OVER 207 | 112-110 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Sixers OVER I think we get a much higher scoring game than the books are expecting on Saturday when the Mavericks host the 76ers. Both of these teams are struggling on the defensive side of the ball. Philadelphia is giving up 111.3 ppg on the road and the Mavericks are allowing 109.2 ppg at home. Dallas has held 3 of their 6 opponents under 100 points, but that's a bit misleading. Two of those came against the Grizzlies, who aren't a team built to score a ton and the other was against the Kings. They allowed 117 to the Hawks, 133 to the Warriors and 107 to the Rockets. The 76ers' defensive numbers are a bit skewed from one game where they held the Pistons to just 86 points. They have allowed 100+ in every other game. I look for both teams to eclipse the 100 point mark in this one and this one finishing closer to 220 than 205. OVER is 11-1 in the 76ers last 12 road games off a home loss and 7-3-1 in the Mavs last 11 games off a loss. Take the OVER! |
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10-28-17 | Dodgers +118 v. Astros | 6-2 | Win | 118 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
4* Dodgers/Astros Game 4 HEAVY HITTER on Dodgers + I'm firing back with the Dodgers to even up the series in Game 4 after losing Game 3 last night. LA just couldn't recover from a bad start by Darvish, who failed to complete 2 innings. The bullpen did their part allowing just 1 run (unearned) over the final 7 1/3 innings. They should get a much better performance from today's starter Alex Wood, who is going to be fresh having made just one postseason start to this point. Wood was sensational on the road this season, posting a 2.44 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in 14 road starts. Houston will counter here with Charlie Morton, who has just a 6.23 ERA and 1.538 WHIP over his last 3 starts, all of which have come in the postseason. I think we see the Dodgers offense come to life in this one, much like Houston's offense did in Game 3. Dodgers are 18-5 in Wood's last 23 starts overall and 8-3 in his last 11 road starts. LA is also 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 5 or more runs and 8-3 in their last 11 playoff games. Take the DODGERS! |
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10-28-17 | Rockets v. Grizzlies UNDER 205 | 89-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Rockets UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action between the Rockets and Grizzlies. Houston is a team the public looks to play the OVER on because of how great they were offensively last year, but the Rockets offense hasn't been producing like it had a season ago. The Rockets scored 122 in their opener against Golden State, but haven't scored more than 107 in each of their 4 games since. They are also playing much better on defense, giving up just 102 ppg. Memphis is an ideal UNDER team, as they like to play a more grind it out style, where they work for good shots on offense and lock down defensively. The Grizzlies are scoring just 100.4 ppg and giving up 95.2 ppg. Another key factor here is these two teams just played a little over a week ago and the game finished with 188 points. I think we see a very similar outcome in this one. UNDER is 15-4 in the Rockets last 19 road games with a line of +3 to -3 and 20-9 in the Grizzlies last 29 games when listed as a home favorite. Take the UNDER! |
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10-28-17 | Tennessee +6 v. Kentucky | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 117 h 15 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Tennessee + The perception with the Volunteers is they have thrown in the towel on this season and it's just a matter of time before Butch Jones is fired. While Jones is likely headed out of Knoxville, I'm not buying Tennessee's players not showing to play the rest of the way. I think the Vols take it personal that they are a near touchdown dog to Kentucky The Wildcats are 5-2, but have had some fortunate breaks in close games. In fact, all 5 of their wins have come by single-digits. This team certainly didn't look like a top tier team that should be laying this number against the Vols in last week's 38-point loss to Mississippi State. Tennessee has won 5 straight by 20+ ppg and are 31-1 all-time in the series with the Wildcats. Kentucky is 3-12 ATS when they come in having gone 4-2 or better in their last 6 games and 0-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they enter with 4 or more covers in their last 6 games. There's a great system in play that backs going against the grain with a struggling team like Tennessee. Teams that are getting outgained by 75 or more yards/game and off 2 straight games where they had 275 or less total yards are 34-12 (74%) ATS when they are listed as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take Tennessee! |
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10-28-17 | Mississippi State -1 v. Texas A&M | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 69 h 16 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Big Money ATS NO BRAINER on Mississippi State - I really like this Mississippi State team and the fact they are favored on the road against the Aggies  in a night game really says it all, as the public will surely take the bait with Texas A&M. The Bulldogs only two losses have come against Auburn and Georgia on the road, arguably the two best teams in the SEC outside of Alabama. Texas A&M is sitting at 5-2, but that could easily be flipped and they could be 2-5 with 3 wins by 7 points or less. The most recent a 19-17 win at Florida. I just don't trust this team in a big spot. I believe the difference in this game is going to be the Mississippi State defense, which has really shown some improvement in year one under DC Todd Gratham. The Bulldogs are 17th in scoring defense, allowing just 17.9 ppg and are 8th in total defense, giving up just 281 ypg. Last year they allowed 31.8 ppg and 459 ypg. Junior QB Nick Fitzgerald gave Texas A&M's defense fits last year, throwing for 209 yards and 2 scores, while also rushing for 182 yards and 2 scores. I think Fitzgerald and the Bulldogs offense makes enough plays here to secure the win. Take Mississippi State! |
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10-28-17 | Minnesota v. Iowa -7 | 10-17 | Push | 0 | 116 h 22 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Iowa - I'll take the Hawkeyes laying a touchdown at home against the Golden Gophers on Saturday. Iowa comes in having lost 3 of their last 4 and are off a 10-17 loss at Northwestern, which is actually a good thing, as the Hawkeyes are 34-13 ATS under Ferentz off a road loss. I also think the Gophers are one of the more overrated teams because of all the love everyone has for their new head coach P.J. Fleck. They are 4-3, but their wins have come against Buffalo, Oregon State, Middle Tennessee and Illinois. They lost to Maryland, who was playing a 3rd string QB and lost by 14 at Purdue. The defensive numbers for Minnesota are great, as they rank 22nd in the country giving up just 317 ypg. That's more a result of their easy schedule. They have already allowed 30+ in 3 of 4 Big Ten games and I think Iowa makes it 4 of 5. At the same time the Hawkeyes defense is built for an offense like the Gophers who want to try and run it down your throat. You also can't discount the advantage Iowa has here in this basically being a night game at Kinnick with a 5:30 kickoff. The crowd is going to be electric in Iowa City and I think this could get ugly in a hurry. Take Iowa! |
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10-28-17 | Utah -3 v. Oregon | 20-41 | Loss | -115 | 95 h 52 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Oddsmakers ERROR  on Utah - I really like the value here with the Utes laying just a field goal against the Ducks. If this game was played early in the season no way would I back Utah here, but Oregon's season took a major turn for the worse when starting quarterback Justin Herbert was lost for the season. Herbert last played in a 45-24 win over Cal. Since that game the Ducks have lost 3 straight and none of them have been close. They lost 10-33 at home to Washington State, 7-49 at Stanford and most recently 14-31 at UCLA. As you can see they had scored just 31 points in 3 games without Herbert and he's not returning for this one. The offense has to rely pretty much only on the run and that makes this a bad matchup against a Utah defense that is good against the run. The Utes have lost 3 straight, but they came against USC, Stanford and Arizona St. They will be all business in this one and the Ducks don't stand much of a chance. We also have a great system in play backing the Utes to cover in this one. Road teams who are off an upset loss as a favorite by 17 or more points and have winning record between 51% and 60% are 39-12 (77%) ATS going all the way back to 1992. Take Utah! |
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10-28-17 | TCU v. Iowa State +7 | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 66 h 43 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Afternoon ATS HEAVY HITTER  on Iowa State + I'll take the Cyclones at home getting a touchdown against the Horned Frogs. Iowa State has come out of no where in the second year under head coach Matt Campbell to make the Top 25. Despite winning at Oklahoma and following it up with a 45-0 beatdown of Kansas and an impressive 31-13 win on the road at Texas Tech, this team continues to get no love. They aren't going to get against the No. 4 team in the country. That's perfect for Campbell and his staff, as it keeps the Cyclones' players from getting a big head. The offense has really come to life since Park left the team and Kempt took over. The defense also seems to have figured things out, as they have allowed a total of 20 points in their last 10 quarters of play. As much as TCU's coaches are going to tell their players not to overlook the Cyclones, I think they struggle to match the intensity of ISU. I think that allows the Cyclones to get out to an early lead and keep momentum on their side at home. Note that this is actually a good matchup for the Iowa State offense. TCU's strength defensively is stopping the run, but you can attack them through the air. The Horned Frogs are 56th vs the pass and will be facing the Cyclones 30th ranked passing attack. I actually think there's a decent chance ISU wins outright, but I'll take the touchdown for some added insurance. Take Iowa State! |
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10-28-17 | Penn State v. Ohio State -6 | 38-39 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 57 m | Show | |
4* Penn St/Ohio St Big Money ATS ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State - The Buckeyes haven't lost two regular season games in the same season since Urban Meyer took over in Columbus. Everyone is on the No. 2 ranked Nittany Lions getting points. Close to 65% of the action has been on Penn State and it's by the biggest bet game on the board. I love being on the other side of these games and there's every reason to believe the Buckeyes will roll here. I know Ohio State got the invite to the playoffs over Penn State, but this team hasn't forgot about the loss they suffered in State College last year, where they blew a 21-7 lead in the 4th quarter. Revenge isn't the only angle in favor of the Buckeyes. Ohio State is off a bye and more times than not when you give an elite coach like Meyer extra time his team is going to deliver. His teams are a ridiculous 24-8 ATS off a bye. The loss to Oklahoma doesn't loo good right now, but that served as a wake up call for this team, much like the 2014 loss to Virginia Tech early and they went on to run the table and win the title. Since that loss they haven't just been beating teams, they have been destroying them with 31 points being the closest any team has come to beating them. Ohio State lost just twice at home under Meyer. Take Ohio State! |
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10-28-17 | Air Force +12 v. Colorado State | Top | 45-28 | Win | 100 | 113 h 50 m | Show |
5* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Air Force + I think we are seeing an inflated number with Colorado State, due to the fact that the Rams have won 4 straight and are 4-0 in MWC play. The thing is, they haven't really played anyone in the conference with the 4 wins coming against Hawaii, Utah State, Nevada and New Mexico. They only beat the Lobos by 3 and were very fortunate in a 44-42 win against the Wolf Pack the week before. I'm not saying Colorado State isn't a good team, I just don't think they should be laying double-digits against a team like Air Force. The Falcons are 3-4, but have a 4-point loss to San Diego State and 3-point defeat at Navy. They also lost at Michigan in non-conference play and were competitive against the Wolverines, losing 13-29. Falcons come in with the 30th ranked offense in the country, thanks to the 5th ranked rushing attack, which is averaging 341.4 ypg. Colorado State's defense isn't anything special. They are 92nd in total defense, giving 419.9  ypg and are allowing 4.5 yards/rush. Falcons should be able to not only put points on the board, but limit the Rams possessions and shorten the game, which all adds value to this line. Take Air Force! |
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10-28-17 | San Jose State v. BYU OVER 49.5 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 65 h 47 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Over/Under Total DESTROYER ON BYU OVER These aren't exactly two teams most would consider taking the OVER with. BYU hasn't scored more than 24 in a game all season and San Jose State's 26 last week at Hawaii was it's most since scoring 34 in their opener against Cal Poly. It's not so much the offenses that I'm focused on but the defenses. This is the perfect opponent for the Cougars to take out some of that frustration on offense. The Spartans have allowed at least 27 in each of their last 6 games, 4 times allowing 40+. At the same time, BYU's defense has allowed 30+ two straight and 4 of their last 5. I don't see it getting any better for either of these teams down the stretch. Last time out, both teams suffered their 7th loss of the season, which pretty much wraps up any hopes of making a bowl game. I look for a bit of a shootout with this one going well past the mark. Take the OVER! |
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10-28-17 | California +4 v. Colorado | 28-44 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 6 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Cal + I like the value here with the Golden Bears catching more than a field goal against the Buffaloes. I have really been impressed with the job head coach Justin Wilcox has done in his first year on the job. They knocked off UNC on the road and Ole Miss at home in non-conference play and most remember the 37-3 beatdown they put on Washington State. They are 4-4 with 3 losses to Washington, USC and Oregon, as well as a double-overtime loss last week to Arizona 44-45. I expect this team to pick themselves up and bounce back in a big way against the Buffaloes. Colorado shocked everyone and won the Pac-12 South a year ago. Things haven't been going so well in 2017, as the Buffaloes are just 4-4 with their only win in their last 5 being a 36-33 win over Oregon State. Last week they were shutout 28-0 at Washington State. The key here is the Buffaloes came into this season expecting to replicate last year's success. It can be really hard for a team to keep fighting once their goals have been crushed. Cal is also 17-6 ATS in their last 23 as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, while Colorado is a mere 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games after a contest in which the combine score was 29 or less. Take California! |
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10-28-17 | California v. Colorado UNDER 52 | Top | 28-44 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 46 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Vegas Insider TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cal UNDER I expect a much lower-scoring game than what the books are calling for with this total. Cal is coming off a 44-45 loss to Arizona, which had a combined 99 points, but only 62 of those came in regulation. The week before they held Washington State's potent attack to just 3 points. Colorado was just shutout at Washington State and have now scored 23 or fewer in half of their games. I just think we have two defenses that have underachieved going up against a couple of limited offenses. Both teams are coming off a loss and still need two wins to become bowl eligible, so the intensity should be there on the defensive side. I got a little more concern with Colorado mentally, but being at home will help them. When Cal is coming off a high-scoring game like we have here, history struggling recommends playing the UNDER, as it's 33-18 in their last 51 after a contest that finished OVER the total set by the books. UNDER is also 16-5 in Colorado's last 21 games off a loss by more than 20 points and a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 after a game where they scored fewer than 20 points. Take the UNDER! |
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10-28-17 | Virginia +3.5 v. Pittsburgh | 14-31 | Loss | -115 | 110 h 22 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Virginia + I really like the value here with the Cavaliers as a dog against the Panthers, as I actually think they should be favored here. Virginia comes in off an ugly 10-41 loss at home to BC, which snapped a 4-game winning streak. I just think that was a classic case where a team that had been playing with a chip on their shoulder started to enjoy the taste of success a little too much. Virginia linebacker after the game was quoted saying "Humbles you. We were riding really high, probably a little bit too high, so you get humbled and come back on Monday ready to work." I expect the Cavaliers to do just that. As for Pittsburgh, they come in off a surprising 24-17 win at Duke as a 9.5-point dog. I just think that was another case where a team (Blue Devils) didn't give their opponent the respect they deserved. Pitt also had a couple of huge plays that are hard to replicate. Both coming from Darrin Hall, who had 254 yards on the game. He had a 79 and 92 yard TD run. Outside of those two big plays the offense hadn't done much. It was shocking that Duke let them run for so many yards, as Pitt is down their starting QB and the backup hasn't show a whole to get excited about. The Panthers struggle to keep pace and lose at home. Take Virginia! |
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10-28-17 | Rutgers v. Michigan -23.5 | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 50 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Michigan - I got no problem laying this big number here with the Wolverines at home against Rutgers. I can assure you it wasn't a fun week of practice for Michigan, as Jim Harbaugh doesn't take losing lightly. In what might be a letdown spot for some teams off such a big game, I think the Wolverines come out looking to make a statement and there's nothing the Scarlet Knights can do to stop them. Rutgers has won two straight, but one was against Illinois and last week they beat Purdue in a game they had no business winning. The Scarlet Knights were outgained by more than 250 yards and had just 8 first downs for the game. Just about a month ago Rutgers lost 56-0 at home to Ohio State. They couldn't do anything against that Buckeye defense and it won't be any easier against the Wolverines stop unit. The Scarlet Knights defense might be able to get a couple stops early, but that's no sure thing and they will wear down at some point. I think Michigan scores 35+ here and keeps Rutgers to single digits. Take Michigan! |
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10-28-17 | Buffalo University +5.5 v. Akron | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 38 h 51 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Early Bird MONEYMAKER  on Buffalo + I'm well aware the Bulls could be down to 3rd straight QB Kyle Vantrease. I still think Buffalo is going to be able to keep it close and like their chances of winning this game outright. The Bulls are one of the most improved and underrated teams in the country, which is evident by their 6-2 record against the spread. They are just 3-5 overall, but that's already an improvement over the 2-wins they won last year. The turnaround comes in year 3 under head coach Lance Leipold, which is when we typically see good coaches start to turn around a program. Akron has been playing better of late, but I think their offense really struggles in this one. The Zips are only scoring 22.9 ppg and will face a stingy Buffalo defense that has allowed 24 or less in 6 of their 8 games. The Zips defense is only giving up 25.1 ppg, but a big part of that is who they have played, as their opponents are only averaging 25.7 ppg. I think the Bulls can generate enough here for the cover. Akron is 4-1 ATS in their last 5, which is important to note, as the Zips are just 2-10 ATS the last 12 times they took the field after a 4-1 ATS stretch. Bulls are 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss, 4-1 ATS last 5 road games and 4-1 ATS off a SU loss. Take Buffalo! |
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10-27-17 | Dodgers +120 v. Astros | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
3* Dodgers/Astros 'Game 3' World Series HEAVY HITTER  on Dodgers + I like the value here with Los Angeles in Game 3 of the World Series. The Dodgers were 3 outs from having a 2-0 lead, but the usually reliable bullpen had an off night. I still think LA is the better team and will bounce back with a win to take control of the series. It all comes down to the pitching matchup, which I feel favors the Dodgers quite a bit. LA will send out Yu Darvish, who has been lights out in the postseason, allowing just 2 runs on 8 hits with only 1 walk and 14 strikeouts over 11 1/3 innings (2 starts). Both outings came on the road, so no concern with him not being able to handle the atmosphere away from home. Houston counters with Lance McCullers and he too has made 2 starts in the playoffs. He's giving up 6 runs on 8 hits and 4 walks with 9 strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings. While McCullers pitched well in his ALCS start against the Yankees, he was rocked in the ALDS by the Red Sox. The most concerning thing is how the Astros struggle to win when he is on the mound. They have lost 3 straight and 8 of his last 9 starts overall. Take Los Angeles! |
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10-27-17 | Thunder -120 v. Wolves | 116-119 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Thunder - OKC will be out for revenge and I expect them to get it. The Thunder suffered a heartbreaking 113-115 loss at home to the Timberwovles on Sunday, where Wiggins banked in a 3-pointer at the buzzer. That loss is definitely fresh in the minds of OKC and with this game also being part of the NBATV double-header, we can bank on a max effort here from the Thunder. Minnesota isn't going to back down, but I've got my concerns with the Timberwolves right now. The defense hasn't been good at all. They have allowed all 5 of their opponents to shoot at least 46% from the field. I think a big part of that is they don't have much for a bench and tonight they are likely with a less than 100% Jimmy Butler, who is expected to play but still dealing with a cold that's kept him out of the last two games. Road favorites who are playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are an impressive 119-37 (73%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. Take Oklahoma City! |
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10-27-17 | Florida State -4 v. Boston College | 3-35 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 32 m | Show | |
3* Florida St/BC Friday Night NO BRAINER on Florida State - As heartbreaking as last week's loss at home was to Louisville, I think the value here is clearly with Florida State laying less than a touchdown against the Eagles. The Seminoles might be just 2-4, but their 4 losses are against Alabama, NC State, Miami and Louisville. They could have just as easily won each of the last two against the Canes and Cardinals. I think this team is well past the emotional letdown of their season being lost. That pretty much happened in the opener when starting quarterback Deondre Francois was lost for the season. They went with true freshmen James Blackman. He's had his ups and downs, but appears to be better with each week. His fumble cost the team against Louisville and I think he comes out with a chip on his shoulder in this one. BC just crushed a red-hot Virginia team 41-10 on the road and the week before upset Louisville on the road. This is still the same team that struggled against the top teams, losing by at least 13 in all 4 defeats. It's also a lot different going from getting zero respect to all the sudden people are expecting you to win. The Seminoles remind everyone of the talent they have and win here going away. Take Florida State! |
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10-27-17 | Spurs v. Magic UNDER 207.5 | 87-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs UNDER I think we are getting some good value here with the total in Friday's non-conference matchup between the Spurs and Magic. Orlando has been an offensive juggernaut thru 4 games, averaging 119 ppg. I just don't think the talent is there for them to sustain that production and it's aided by an easy early schedule, which includes 2 games against the Nets. The Spurs are an elite team and off to a 4-0 start. Believe it or not they have never started 5-0 in their franchises history. Not that they need any motivation, this team shows up to work no matter who they are missing or who the opponent is. Their strong start has a lot to do with their defense, which is only giving up 93.2 ppg. I'm willing to bet the Spurs dictate the tempo here and this total stays under 200 points. Take the UNDER! |
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10-26-17 | Stanford v. Oregon State OVER 58.5 | 15-14 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Late Night Bailout BLOWOUT on Stanford OVER The books have set the bar way to low for Thursday's Pac-12 action that has Stanford visiting Oregon State. I think the public perception here is that the Cardinal are going to just go into Corvallis and have their way with the Beavers. While I think Stanford will be able to put some points on the board, I think their defense will struggle in this spot. Oregon State comes in just 1-6 and are ranked 113th out of 130 FBS teams in scoring at 21.3 ppg. That's going to make it tough on Stanford to take them seriously, especially with a road game at Washington State looming next week. The thing is the Cardinal defense isn't great, they 98th against the run (195.4 ypg) and 68th vs the pass (220.6 ypg). Oregon State just played their first game after Gary Anderson stepped down and the offense took on a new life against Colorado. The Beavers piled on 280 rushing yards on 46 attempts (6.1 yards/carry) and senior Darell Garretson had his best game by a long shot with 289 yards on 20 of 37 passing. That performance will have them playing with a lot of confidence tonight and I expect a number of big plays to push this final score up closer to 70. Take the OVER! |
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10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens UNDER 37.5 | 0-40 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
3* Dolphins/Ravens TNF Total ANNIHILATOR on Dolphins UNDER I can see how some might be tempted to go the other way given this being such a low number, but I just think this is going to be one of those ugly games where neither team can get anything going offensively. I mean these are two of the worst offenses in the NFL. Baltimore is scoring just 18.6 ppg and are 31st in total offense at 377.5 ypg. As bad as that looks, Miami is even worse at 15.3 ppg and 32nd in total offense at 261.9 ypg. I know the Ravens defense has not played great the past few weeks, but this is an offense they can handle and Miami's down to backup QB Matt Moore. The Dolphins defense had a bit of a slip up last week against the Jets but overall have been really good this year and should have no problem against the anemic Ravens offense. UNDER is 4-0 in the Dolphins last 4 road games, 8-0-1 in their last 9 games played on Thursday and 6-1 in their last 6 overall. UNDER 11-5 in Ravens last 16 home games and 8-2 in their last 10 after a game in which they totaled less than 250 total yards. Take the UNDER! |
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10-26-17 | Hawks v. Bulls OVER 201 | 86-91 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under HEAVY HITTER on Bulls OVER I like the value here with the total and tonight's game between the Bulls and Hawks going over the low mark set by the books. Both of these teams are in the early stages of rebuilding their roster and are also adjusting to a lot of new pieces. No surprise that defense has been an issue for both of these teams. Chicago is giving up 107.7 ppg and the Hawks are allowing 110.0 ppg. Offensively both of these teams are going to be challenged when facing the top tier of the league, but they are more than capable of putting up a big number against the other bottom feeders and that's exactly what I expect to see here. Atlanta had 117 against the Mavs and 104 vs the Nets. Chicago hasn't even got a crack at bad team, having played the Raptors, Spurs and Cavs, but did just score 112 at Cleveland. OVER is 8-2 in Atlanta's last 10 vs a team with a losing record and 5-2 in the Bulls last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER! |
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10-26-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois OVER 46.5 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 39 h 13 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Eastern Michigan OVER These two teams combined for 55 points a season ago and 70 the year before that. I know we have two good defensive teams, but let's not completely discount the offensive side of the ball. I think we get more than enough scoring here to push this past the small number set by the books. Northern Illinois' offense is coming in with a ton of confidence after putting up 48 points and more than 500 total yards last week at Bowling Green. Eastern Michigan scored just 17, but had nearly 460 yards of total offense (done in by 3 turnovers). With both defenses playing on short rest and the Huskies potentially not giving the Eagles their full attention with Toledo on deck, I think we could be closer to 60 than 50. OVER is 30-16 in Eastern Michigan's last 46 road games after 2 or more consecutive losses and 10-2 in their last 12 road games against an opponent that's outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game. Take the OVER! |
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10-25-17 | Wizards v. Lakers UNDER 231.5 | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
4* NBA Late Night Total NO BRAINER on Lakers UNDER I like the value here with the total in Wednesday's late night action that has the Wizards visiting the Lakers. Washington's backcourt duo of Wall and Beal are going to take this one personal against the Lakers. They are going to come in looking to shut down Lonzo Ball. I look for their effort defensively on Ball to take him completely out of his game, much like we saw in the Lakers opener when Patrick Beverly made it personal guarding Ball and LA managed just 92 points on 41% shooting. Washington's offense can get up and down the floor, but they aren't as efficient on the road. After scoring 120 against the 76ers and 115 against the Pistons at home, they managed just 109 at Denver. Not that 110 is bad, but we are talking about a total of 230+ points. Add in this being a nationally televised game on ESPN and I think the effort will be there on the defensive side of the ball for both teams. We got a great system in play here. UNDER is 26-6 (81%) since 1996 when you have a total of 210 or more with a team that had a losing record the previous season and is playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. Take the UNDER! |
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10-25-17 | Wizards -6 v. Lakers | 99-102 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 33 m | Show | |
3* NBA Late Night ATS BAILOUT on Wizards - Washington's backcourt duo of Wall and Beal are going to take this one personal against the Lakers. They are going to come in looking to shut down Lonzo Ball. I look for their effort defensively on Ball to take him completely out of his game, much like we saw in the Lakers opener when Patrick Beverly made it personal guarding Ball and LA managed just 92 points on 41% shooting. While those two take it upon themselves to make his life miserable, Washington should have no problem building up a big lead here and winning by double-digits. The Wizards have been all business during their 3-0 start and I think the Lakers are way overvalued because of all the publicity this team gets and hype around Ball. They are 1-2 with both losses coming at home by at least 7 points. Take Washington! |
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10-25-17 | Grizzlies v. Mavs UNDER 195 | Top | 94-103 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA Best Bet 'VEGAS INSIDER'  on Mavs UNDER The Grizzlies are come in allowing just 94.0 ppg and that's really impressive when you consider they have faced both the Warriors and Rockets. Memphis held Golden State's high-powered attack to just 101 points and two days later held Houston to a mere 90 points. Clearly the Grizzlies are locked in on the defensive side of the ball and I see no reason why they won't shut down a Dallas offense that is as limited as they come. In fact, the Mavericks are so limited they are trying to slow the game down and grind out each possession just to be competitive. That's going to make it hard for either team to eclipse the 100 point mark and I wouldn't be shocked if this one finished closer to 180 points. Keep in mind they played a game last year towards the beginning of the season where they combined for a whopping 144 points. UNDER is 25-9 in the Grizzlies last 34 road games off a win over a division rival and 22-7-1 in the Mavericks last 30 games after they scored 100 or more point sin their previous game. Take the UNDER! |
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10-25-17 | Astros +105 v. Dodgers | 7-6 | Win | 105 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
3* Astros/Dodgers 'Game 2' World Series ANNIHILATOR  on Astros + I'm taking Houston in Game 2 of the World Series on Wednesday. The Astros couldn't get the offense going in Game 1 against Kershaw, which is to be expected. Now the roles will be reversed, as Houston sends out their ace and postseason star in Justin Verlander. Since Verlander arrived in Houston he's taken his game to a whole different level and it's carried over into the postseason. He's made 3 starts and 1 appearance out of the pen in the playoffs this year and has posted a 1.46 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings. The most important stat is that the Astros have won every game he's pitched and I don't see that trend ending tonight. Keep in mind Verlander got a shot at these Dodgers during the regular season this year and was able to limit them to just 1 run on 2 hits with 9 strikeouts in 8 innings of work. Hill has been good for LA, but this Houston offense is loaded and should be able to push across a few runs to secure the win. Take Houston! |
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10-25-17 | Rockets v. 76ers UNDER 221 | 105-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 4 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL DOMINATOR On Rockets UNDER I like the value here with the total and this one staying UNDER the mark set by the books. Houston hasn't looked like the offensive juggernaut from last year and could find it hard to get going against a stingy 76ers defense that has held it's 4 opponents to just 42.8% shooting. A impressive feat given they have played the Wizards, Celtics, Raptors and Pistons, with 3 of the 4 on the road. The other key here is that Philadelphia isn't a great offensive team. They are only shooting 42.3% from the field and scoring a mere 99.5 ppg. While the offense is still trying to finds it's rhythm, Houston's defense has played really well. They gave up 121 to the Warriors in Golden State, but have held all 3 opponents since that game to 100 or fewer. This has also been a very profitable spot to back the UNDER in Rockets' games. The UNDER is 14-4 in Houston's last 18 road games with a line of +3 to -3. Take the UNDER! |
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10-24-17 | Pelicans v. Blazers UNDER 221.5 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers UNDER The books have set the bar way too high for tonight's Western Conference clash between the Blazers and Pelicans. Portland will finally get to play a game at home after opening the season with 3 straight on the road and have had a full two days off to get back their legs. I expect a big time defensive effort here by a very underrated Blazers team. They should be able to keep the Pelicans in check, as there's not a lot you have to worry about outside of the two bigs in Cousins and Davis. Prior to giving up 113 to Milwaukee the Blazers held the Pacers to 96 and the Suns to a mere 76. I think this one ends up closer to 210 than 220. UNDER is 15-4 in the Pelicans last 19 road games after they scored 110 or more points in each of their previous two games and 13-3 in their last 16 road games after covering the spread in 2 straight. Take the UNDER! |
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10-24-17 | Astros +1.5 v. Dodgers | 1-3 | Loss | -140 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
3* Astros/Dodgers WS Game 1 BEST BET on Astros +1.5 I like the value here with Houston on the +1.5 run line for Game 1 of the World Series. We got two of the games best starters on the mound in Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel and all signs point to a closely contested matchup to get the series started. That puts the value here with Houston, who we need to either win or lose by 1 or less. I think there's a decent chance the Astros pull out the victory. As good as Kershaw has been, he's got a 3.64 ERA in his 3 postseason starts this year and has allowed 6 home runs in the playoffs so far. With the ball figuring to carry a little better with the heat wave in LA, Houston could blow this open early. Take the Astros +1.5! |
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10-24-17 | Pacers v. Wolves OVER 217.5 | 130-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Wolves OVER The Pacers have allowed 112 or more points in each of their first 3 games and I look for that trend to continue here against the Timberwolves, who after struggling to get going offensively against two of the better defensive teams in the Jazz and Spurs, exploded for 115 points in a win at OKC. I think we could see Minnesota go off for 120+ here, which means we just need Indiana to reach 100 points to have an excellent shot at this going over the mark set here by the books. Indiana will be without one of their better players in Myles Turner, but there's a lot more talent on this Pacers roster than people think. OVER is 10-1 in the Pacers last 11 road games and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 on the road against a team with a winning home record. OVER is also 8-2 in the Timberwolves last 10 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 5-0 in their last 5 off a SU win. Take the OVER! |
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10-24-17 | Bulls v. Cavs UNDER 208.5 | 112-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Bulls UNDER Chicago was going to feature one of the worst rosters in the league when they were healthy and they are without at least 3 starters and 4 of their best players with Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis all sidelined with injury or suspension. Last time out the Bulls managed just 77 points on 38% shooting and it's going to be an offensive struggle until they start getting some of those guys back. Cleveland isn't going to cut them any slack, as the Cavs come into this one off an embarrassing 21-point home loss to the Magic. Prior to that they held both the Celtics and Bucks under 100 points and should keep Chicago well below the century mark. Cavs are still trying to find themselves offensively and missing a key piece with point guard Derrick Rose sidelined with an ankle injury. At the same time, Cleveland could score 120 points and this could still go UNDER this high total. Take the UNDER! |
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10-23-17 | Kings v. Suns UNDER 210 | 115-117 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
4* NBA Late Night Total NO BRAINER on Kings UNDER This total might seem like it's way to low given the Suns have allowed 124 or more points in each of their first 3 games, twice allowing 130+. The most recent was a 88-130 defeat to the Clippers, which cost head coach Earl Watson his job just 3 games into the season. That's on the players and their lack of effort. I expect them to come out and given it all they got at home in this one. The Kings on the other hand are a team that has played in some really low-scoring games to start the year. They held the Rockets to 105 points in a game that had just 205 points with a total of 216.5. They then combined for 181 at Dallas with a total of 202 and 175 at Denver with a total of 212.5. Sacramento has held all 3 of their opponents under 44% shooting and now face a Suns team that has failed to score 90 in 2 of their 3 games. Key here is the Kings don't play at a frantic pace and aren't a great offensive team. Sacramento is averaging just 90.7 ppg.  Take the UNDER! |
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10-23-17 | Redskins v. Eagles -4.5 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
4* Redskins/Eagles MNF HEAVY HITTER on Eagles - Washington played the Eagles tough at home back in Week 1, but injuries have really taken it's toll on the Redskins defense since that game. They will be without Josh Norman and rookie defensive line Jonathan Allen, who played a big role in the revamped Washington front on that side of the ball. The Redskins could also be without a few other key defensive players, but those two are going to be tough to replace against a Philadelphia offense that has only gotten better since these two teams played in the season opener. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles defensive front is one of the best in the league and could be getting a big boost in the secondary with the possible return of corner Ronald Darby. Factor in the home field advantage here for the Eagles, which is going to be at it's highest during the regular season with this being a prime time showdown on Monday Night Football. You also can't discount the scheduling edge Philadelphia has. The Eagles got a few extra days to prepare and recover after playing on Thursday last week. Washington won't go away easy, but the Eagles should be able to win here by at least a touchdown. Take Philadelphia! |
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10-23-17 | Hornets v. Bucks UNDER 205 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Bucks UNDER This might seem like a low total given the Bucks are giving up 108.7 ppg, but that's more of who Milwaukee has played. They opened the season at Boston before hosting the Cavs and Blazers. They held both the Celtics and Blazers UNDE 43% shooting and should be able to do it here against a Hornets team that is only hitting 41.5% from the field in two games against the Pistons and Hawks. Charlotte is playing a much slower-paced game with the focus on defense and the offense running through big man Dwight Howard. I look for both of these teams to struggle to get in any kind of rhythm offensively and don't think either side will be able to reach the 100 point mark in this one. Take the UNDER! |
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10-23-17 | Grizzlies v. Rockets OVER 210 | 98-90 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets OVER Houston has went UNDER the total in each of their last two games, both games finishing with 205 or less. I think that has the total way too low for tonight's showdown against the Grizzlies. The Rockets only shot 39.8% from the field against at Sacramento on no rest after the big win at Golden State and still managed 105 points. They finished with 107 in their next game at home against the Mavs, but it would have been a lot more if the game wasn't a blowout. Houston had 92 points thru 3 quarters. Memphis is a good defensive team, but I don't see them being able to keep the Rockets offense in check with this game being played in Houston. Key here is the Grizzlies are in good form offensively to start the year, averaging 107.0 ppg. I think both teams easily eclipse the century mark and this one finishes closer to 225. Take the OVER! |
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10-23-17 | 76ers v. Pistons -3.5 | 97-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT  on Pistons - I like the value here with Detroit laying a short number against the 76ers. Philadelphia is a good young team, but are getting a little too much respect on the road. The Pistons only loss so far in 2017 is a 4-point loss at Washington. Their only home game was the opener against Charlotte, which they won by 12 as a slim 2.5-point favorite. I look for Detroit to take control of this one early and pull away late for a comfortable win. Pistons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a losing road record and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games with a total of 210 to 219.5. Philadelphia is only 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in the series and only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 trips to Detroit. Take the Pistons! |
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10-22-17 | Pelicans v. Lakers OVER 221 | 119-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
4* LATE INFO INSIDER on Lakers OVER No Analysis on late releases |
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10-22-17 | Falcons v. Patriots -3 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 150 h 49 m | Show |
5* NFL Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH on Pats - I'll gladly take the Patriots laying just a field goal at home against a Falcons team that looks nothing like the team that cruised to last year's Super Bowl. Atlanta just lost at home off their bye 17-20 to the Dolphins and were up 17-0 at the half. The previous week they lost at home to the Bills and were lucky to come away with wins at both Chicago and Detroit. If it wasn't for what the Falcons accomplished last year, which means nothing, this line would be closer to a TD. Keep in mind that the Patriots have been an 8 or more points favorite in each of their previous 3 home games against playoff caliber teams in the Chiefs, Texans and Panthers. Sure Atlanta wants revenge, but Belichick and Brady won't let that happen. Not to mention the defense for the Patriots has looked a lot better the last two weeks and it was only a matter of time before Belichick glued the pieces back together on that side of the ball. With an offense that is scoring 28+ ppg, New England can easily turn this into a blowout if Ryan and Falcons continue to play like they have been on offense. I think it's pretty clear that Atlanta really misses offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and likely won't get back to that elite form we saw from them a year ago. Take New England! |
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10-22-17 | Bengals +6 v. Steelers | 14-29 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 48 m | Show | |
3* NFL Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Bengals + Cincinnati is not getting near enough respect here against the Steelers. The Bengals got off to that miserable 0-3 start, where the offense couldn't get anything going in their first two games. I still think they are getting treated like that team, especially against a team the public loves to back in the Steelers. Cincinnati could have easily won Week 3 at Green Bay, as they had a 14-poitn lead at the half and were up a touchdown in the 4th quarter of a 24-27 defeat. They bounced back with a 24-point blowout win on the road against the Browns and followed it up with a 20-16 victory over the Bills. The Bengals defense is the real deal and come in 2nd in the league giving up just 16.6 ppg. Keep in mind they are the only defense so far to keep Texans rookie Deshaun Watson in check. They limited him to just 125 passing yards, which is his worst passing yards total by 100 yards. He also didn't throw a TD against them and has thrown at least 2 in every other start (15 total). I think that defense will make life miserable for the Steelers, as they will be able to keep Bell in check and force a struggling Ben Roethlisberger to beat them with his arm. Pittsburgh D will keep them in it, but this should come right down to the wire and wouldn't be shocked if the Bengals won outright. Take Cincinnati! |
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10-22-17 | Seahawks -5 v. Giants | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 142 h 47 m | Show | |
4* NFL Big Money ATS NO BRAINER on Seahawks - I'll gladly back Seattle laying less than a touchdown on the road against the Giants. Prior to New York's surprising win at Denver last week on Monday Night Football they were expected to be more than a touchdown underdog in this game. I just didn't see enough from the Giants offense to think this team is going to be able transform into a better team after losing their top two wide outs in Beckham Jr and Marshall. It was the Broncos mistakes on offense that won them that game, as Denver turned it over 3 times, including an interception that the Giants defense returned for a score. They also had drives of 30 yards or less for two of their three field goals. Broncos basically handed them 13 points and they only scored 23. They had just 266 total yards and 12 first downs. This is the time of year where Seattle turns it up a notch and that defense should have no problem keeping NY in check, as the Seahawks have only allowed more than 18 points once this season. Russell Wilson and the offense should be able to provide enough fire-power coming off a bye to win this by double-digits. Take Seattle! |
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10-22-17 | Seahawks v. Giants UNDER 40 | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
4* NFL Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Seahawks UNDER Don't be fooled by the Giants putting up 23 points last week against Denver. It was the Broncos mistakes on offense that got them to that mark. Denver turned it over 3 times, including an interception that the Giants defense returned for a score. They also had drives of 30 yards or less for two of their three field goals. Broncos basically handed them 13 points and they only scored 23. They finished the game with just 266 total yards and 12 first downs. I don't see them getting so fortunate with the turnovers against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense, which I think is going to have this one finishing well below the mark here. While the offense will struggle to do much of anything against a Seattle stop unit that is well rested and prepared coming off a bye, their defense should be able to hold their own against a Seahawks offense that has scored fewer than 17 points in 3 of their 5 games so far this season. Last time out Seattle was +3 in the turnover margin with the Rams and that's worth noting, as the Seahawks are 16-5 under Pete Carroll when playing on the road after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. UNDER is also 5-1 in the Giants last 6 at home and 6-1 in their last 7 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! |
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10-22-17 | Hawks v. Nets OVER 221 | 104-116 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER  on Hawks OVER The fact that Atlanta scored just 91 in their last game at Charlotte has this total lower than it should be. Brooklyn has decided that defense isn't something they are all that interested in playing and I don't see it changing here. The Nets gave up 140 at Indiana in their opener and 121 last time out at home against the Magic. Each of their first two games have had a combined score of at least 147 points. They also let both of those teams shoot better than 50% from the field, which speaks volumes to their effort on that side of the ball. The Hawks scored 117 at Dallas in their opener and I think they easily hit that mark, which should be more than enough to push this one over the number set by the books. Take the OVER! |
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10-22-17 | Panthers v. Bears +3 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 105 | 145 h 23 m | Show |
5* NFL Vegas No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Bears + The books are just begging for you to take Carolina laying only a field goal and the public is taking the bait. You have to take Chicago in this spot and there's plenty of reason to like the Bears. Chicago played the Falcons tough at home in Week 1 and then upset the Steelers at home in Week 3. Both of those came with Mike Glennon at quarterback and he was hurting the team more than he was helping it. I really like the decision to go to Trubisky and while he hasn't put up huge numbers, he's done a good job protecting the football. That's what the Bears need, as they got a very underrated defense and one of the league's best rushing attacks. Carolina strength is their defense, but it will be missing it's biggest piece on that side of the ball in linebacker Luke Kuechly. Not having him changes a lot and I think it's enough here for Chicago to win this game. The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a home dog of 7 points or less and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games with a total set between 35.5 and 42 points. Take Chicago! |
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10-22-17 | Jets v. Dolphins -3 | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 142 h 21 m | Show | |
4* NFL Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Dolphins - I believe now is the time to sell on the Jets after covering a big number at home against the Patriots, which was their 4th straight cover. New York might be 3-3, but they aren't a good team. They have a road win over the winless Browns and home wins over Miami and Jacksonville. They laid it on the Dolphins in Week 3, beating them 20-6. I think they are going to have a tough time getting up for this one. They are in a big letdown spot after facing New England, who is the one team they want to beat more than any other. Miami finally showed some life offensively in the 2nd half of last week's 20-17 win at Atlanta, scoring all 20 in the final two periods. If the offense gets going, this team is going to be one to watch out of. The Dolphins haven't allowed more than 20 points in a game this season and that includes their 20-0 loss to the Saints in London. I think that unit will take it personal here against the Jets at home. If Miami's offense shows up like I think it will, this could be over in a hurry. Either way they should be able to win here by at least a TD. Dolphins are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 revenging a road loss, while the Jets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after playing a division opponent. Take Miami! |
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10-22-17 | Jaguars v. Colts +3 | 27-0 | Loss | -100 | 110 h 43 m | Show | |
4* NFL Public ATS ANNIHILATOR on Colts + This one is begging for you to take the Jaguars laying only a field goal on the road against the Colts. Indy isn't a team the public wants nothing to do with and certainly aren't going to want to back them only catching 3-points. That has me backing Indianapolis in this one. The Colts are just 2-4 with their only wins coming against the Browns and 49ers, but have been competitive in every game outside of the opening week loss to the Rams. They lost 18-46 to Seattle, but that was a 1-score game with less than 2 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. They also lost by 14 last week at Tennessee in a game they led by double-digits in the 2nd half. People are getting excited about Jacksonville. While they aren't as bad as they have been, they still are a serious threat in the AFC. The defense has it's moments, but the offense has been really bad. Blake Bortles is doing just enough to not get benched. The rushing attack is great, but you have to be able to throw the ball with success to be taken seriously in this league, especially on the road. Colts have gone 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and are 8-1 in their last 9 after a game where they were outgained by 100+ yards. Take Indianapolis! |
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10-22-17 | Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 44 | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 54 h 57 m | Show | |
4* NFL Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Jags/Colts UNDER The books have set the bar too high for Sunday's AFC East matchup between the Colts and Jaguars. It's no secret the Colts aren't an explosive offensive team. Indy ranks just 28th in the NFL at 301.2 ypg. I don't see them getting it going against a good Jaguars defense. At the same time, I think the Colts defense will be able to hold their own here against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has no trust in Blake Bortles and are relying solely on their running game this season. It's a big reason they aren't lighting up the scoreboard. After scoring just 17 at home last week against the Rams, they have scored 20 or less 3 times this season. Their style of play also keeps the clock moving, which limits the possessions for both teams and favors a lower-scoring game. Division games often are also a lot more lower-scoring than you would expect. It's certainly been the case when these two face off. The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in the series with a perfect 6-0 mark in Indianapolis. Take the UNDER! |
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10-22-17 | Bucs v. Bills UNDER 45 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
5* NFL Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH  on Bills/Bucs UNDER The books have set the total for this one too high. Buffalo has a stingy defense and are a run-first team, which has led to the UNDER cashing in 4 of their 5 games and the lone matchup that eclipsed the total had just 42 points with a total of 40. That defense leads the league allowing just 14.8 ppg and figures to be at it's best here with the Bills coming off a bye and facing a banged up Jameis Winston, who is dealing with a shoulder injury but is expected to play. Tampa Bay's defense has struggle at times this year, but that's was more of a result of guys getting injured than the talent on the field. The Bucs are as healthy as they have been on that side of the ball and should have no problem here limiting a below-average Buffalo offense that ranks 31st in total offense (271.6 ypg) and 27th in scoring (17.8 ppg). Take the UNDER! |
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10-21-17 | Colorado v. Washington State OVER 52 | Top | 0-28 | Loss | -100 | 39 h 6 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play Colorado OVER I think we are getting great value here on the total at just 52 points. Forget what happened last week with Washington State. When the Cougars fail to show up for a game they do it in style. Just look at last year's bowl game against Minnesota and 17-45 loss to rival Washington. While the loss to Cal hurts, they still are in great shape to win the North and play in the Pac-12 title game. I expect this team to rebound and to do so in a big way. The Cougars have scored 45+ 3 times already this season and had 30+ in every other game prior to the letdown to the Bears. Cal's not an easy place to play and there's no reason to think they don't show up at home against a Colorado defense that has allowed 33 to Oregon State and 45 to Arizona in their last two games. I also think we get plenty of help from the Buffaloes on the scoreboard. This Washington State defense is good but not great. Colorado's offense is playing with a ton of confidence and I think they are going to keep pace with Washington St and make this a game into the 2nd half. OVER is 20-4 in Colorado's last 24 road games after 2 straight games with 1 or fewer turnovers and 5-1-1 in Washington State's last 7 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Take the OVER! |
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10-21-17 | Suns v. Clippers -12.5 | 88-130 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Clippers - I think a lot of people wrote off the Clippers when Chris Paul decided to go to Houston, but this is still one of the top teams in the West and they are coming into this season with a chip on their shoulder. LA looked great in their opener against the Lakers, holding them to just 92 points and winning by 16 despite a bad shooting night (39.3%). I look for the shots to fall at a higher rate and for the Clippers to make easy work of the Suns tonight. Phoenix bounced back from a 76-124 loss to the Blazers in their home opener with a better showing, but still lost 130-132 to the Lakers last night. Their 3 best players in Booker, Bledsoe and Warren all logged 30+ minutes. I look for the Suns to come out flat and suffer another embarrassing loss. Phoenix is a mere 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games after scoring 115 or more in their previous game. The home team and the favorite are both 6-1 ATS last 7 in the series. Take Los Angeles! |
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10-21-17 | Wyoming +14 v. Boise State | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 131 h 52 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Late Night Bailout BLOWOUT  on Wyoming + I like the value here with the Cowboys catching two touchdowns against Boise State, who I think is seeing an inflated line. The Broncos covered in a 24-7 win at BYU in a prime time week day game two weeks ago and are off a 31-14 beatdown of No. 19 San Diego State on the road as a underdog. Boise should be favored here, but not by this much. There was a lot of hype on this Wyoming team coming into the season because their starting QB Josh Allen was getting talked about as a 1st round pick in next year's NFL draft. That went away quickly with three straight non-covers, which included a 21 point loss at Iowa and 36 point embarrassing loss at home to Oregon as a mere 13.5-point dog. That was the perfect time to buy low and they have covered 3 straight. The public loves to back Boise and won't jump back on them  here. Wyoming beat Boise State 30-28 last year as a 14.5-point home dog. Allen did a lot of the damage, throwing for 274 yards and 3 scores. I think he has another big game here. This Boise defense has been exposed a couple times, giving up 47 to Washington State and 42 at home to Virginia. I think the Broncos pull this one out, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Cowboys won outright again. Take Wyoming! |
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10-21-17 | Wyoming v. Boise State OVER 43.5 | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 109 h 10 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Late Night Bookie DESTROYER Wyoming OVER This is about as low of a total as you are going to see in college and I just don't think it's warranted. I know Boise State's defense has held BYU to 7 points and San Diego St to 14 in their last two games, but those aren't exactly high-powered offenses. The game prior to that they gave up 42 at home to Virginia. Wyoming's offense struggled early in the year, but have scored 28 in each of their last 3 games and put up 30 in a win over Boise State last year. Cowboys quarterback Josh Allen, who is an NFL prospect, threw for 274 yards and 3 scores last year against the Broncos. He's thrown the ball well in each of his last two games and I think he has another big game here. Wyoming's defense has good numbers but have struggled against the better offenses they have faced. They haven't held Boise State under 28 points since 2007 and if the Broncos hit 28, we only need 16 from Wyoming to eclipse this mark. I think we get more than that from Wyoming, who I could see winning this game outright. Take the OVER! |
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10-21-17 | Blazers +3.5 v. Bucks | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
3* NBA Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Blazers + For whatever reason Portland wasn't getting a ton of love coming into this season and I think they are still flying under the radar, which is hard to do when you are off back-to-back blowout road wins. The thing is they beat a couple of teams no one is expecting a lot out of, but I think we could see the Blazers be the Rockets of last year, who just covered everything to start the season as no one believed they were as good as they were playing. Portland is getting it down on both sides of the ball, averaging 119 ppg and allowing just 86 ppg. They held the Suns to 76 and Phoenix went out in their next game and scored 130. Indiana had just put up 140 and they held them to 96. Milwaukee's offense hasn't looked great and I think they struggle to keep pace with the Blazers in a bit of a letdown spot after hosting the Cavs on national TV last night. Take Portland! |
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10-21-17 | Blazers v. Bucks UNDER 214.5 | Top | 110-113 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers UNDER The books have set the bar too high on the total for Saturday's non-conference matchup between the Blazers and Bucks. Portland's defense has been exceptional to start the year. The Blazers held the Suns to just 76 points in their opener and that same Phoenix team score 130 the next night. They followed it up by holding the Pacers to just 96 and Indiana had scored 140 in their previous game. Bucks are talented young team with a great player in Antetokounmpo, but aren't a great 3-point shooting team and are strong defensively. Exactly what you look for when you want a low-scoring game. I also think the tempo of this game won't be up to normal pace with both teams playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. For Portland it's their 3rd road game in 4 nights and Milwaukee just put it all on the line last night against the LeBron and the Cavs at home. Backing this play is a great long-term system. The UNDER is 58-25 (70%) over the last 5 seasons (3-0 to start 2017) when you have a total of 200 or more in a non-conference game with a team that averaged 14 or fewer turnovers/game the previous year (Blazers). Take the UNDER! |
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10-21-17 | Spurs v. Bulls UNDER 202.5 | 87-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Bulls UNDER I just don't see these two teams playing a very high-scoring game here tonight. San Antonio is without their best offensive weapon and MVP candidate in Kawhi Leonard, as well as starting PG Tony Parker. Chicago has half their roster either hurt or suspended and even at full strength the Bulls were going to feature one of the weakest rosters in the NBA, as they are in the very early stages of a major rebuilding phase. San Antonio is one of the most efficient defenses in the league just about every year and were spot in their opener, holding the T-Wolves to just 99 points on 43.5% shooting. Chicago only connected on 41.6% of their attempts at Toronto and I think they are going to find it really hard to put the ball in the basket tonight. Key here is we should get enough effort out of the Bulls defensively to keep this from going over. Backing this play is a great long-term system. The UNDER is 58-25 (70%) over the last 5 seasons (3-0 to start 2017) when you have a total of 200 or more in a non-conference game with a team that averaged 14 or fewer turnovers/game the previous year (Spurs). Take the UNDER! |
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10-21-17 | Arizona v. California | 45-44 | Win | 100 | 128 h 6 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Prime Time ATS ANNIHILATOR  on Arizona - Most will be quick to take Cal at home here after they just dominated the No. 5 team in the country in Washington State 37-3. Arizona wasn't even a home favorite against Houston, Utah or UCLA. I think line tells you everything and there's every reason to like Arizona in this one. The Wildcats have found something special in sophomore quarterback Khalil Tate, who has 557 rushing yards in his last two games. He doesn't throw a ton, but has been accurate when he has to make a play through the air, completing 74.3% of his attempts. I just don't see Cal being able to slow him down enough to keep this one close. While Cal's offense was able to put up 37 last week, they clearly were up against a Wash St team that didn't come to play. Two weeks ago they managed just 7 points and 93 totals yards against Washington. Arizona's not an elite defense, but are capable of keeping the Golden Bears offense in check. Even with the big game against the Cougars, Cal still ranks 89th in scoring (26.1 ppg) and 109th in total offense (348 ypg). I think the Wildcats win this one going away. Take Arizona! |
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10-21-17 | Arizona v. California UNDER 61.5 | 45-44 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 20 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Arizona Under This one has been set too high here by the books. I just don't see this being a shootout. Cal's offense was able to put up 37 last week, but they clearly were up against a Wash St team that didn't come to play. Two weeks ago they managed just 7 points and 93 totals yards against Washington. Arizona's not an elite defense, but are capable of keeping the Golden Bears offense in check. Even with the big game against the Cougars, Cal still ranks 89th in scoring (26.1 ppg) and 109th in total offense (348 ypg). All the talk here is about the Wildcats new quarterback in Khalil Tate, who has rushed for 557 yards in the last two games. I think he's a good find for Arizona, but that was against Colorado, who ranks 99th in run defense and UCLA, who ranks 129th. Cal's defense isn't as good as it was last week against the Cougars, but it's going to put up better numbers at home and are better built to stop the run than the pass. I think they at least make Tate and the Arizona offense work for their points, which is going to eat up the clock with how much they like to run the ball. That should have this finishing closer to 50 than 60. Take the UNDER! |
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10-21-17 | Michigan +10 v. Penn State | 13-42 | Loss | -100 | 128 h 14 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Vegas HEAVY HITTER on Michigan + This is just too good to pass up with the Wolverines catching double-digits against any team in the Big Ten. Michigan hasn't looked good the past couple of weeks and people aren't as high on this team after they lost at home to Michigan State. I still think the Wolverines are one of the best teams in the country. Jim Harbaugh is going to feed his players on how little respect they are getting and will come out with a chip on their shoulder. I also think Harbaugh and Michigan are coming in looking to make a statement against one of the favorites to win the Heisman in Saquon Barkley. Last year they held him to 136 total yards with just 3.9 yards/carry on the ground and Penn State managed just 10 points. Michigan comes in leading the country in total defense, while ranking 6th against the run (85.8 ypg) and 3rd against the pass (138.0 ypg). I think they are going to keep the Nittany Lions in check. I know Michigan's offense has been bad, but I'm confident Harbaugh is holding back a few wrinkles for this one. I think the Wolverines will play well offensively and wouldn't be shocked if they did enough to win this game outright. Take Michigan! |
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10-21-17 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 215 | Top | 94-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
5* 76ers/Raptors VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Raptors OVER I look for these two teams to fly OVER the total set here by the books. Philadelphia scored just 92 in the loss at home to Boston last night and are going to be without one of their best defenders in Embiid, who isn't playing back-to-backs just yet. I think the entire 76ers team struggles on defense being on the road with no rest against a potent Toronto offense that needed just 83 shots to score 117 in their opener. The Raptors did allow a Bulls team that was missing half their roster to score 100, so we can expect Ben Simmons and company to at least hit that mark. Keep in mind that Philadelphia had 115 in their opener at Washington. OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings overall and 6-2 in the last 8 times they have played in Toronto. OVER was 14-6 in 76ers last 20 games last year when playing on no rest and 7-0 in Toronto's last 7 home games when playing against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the OVER! |
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10-21-17 | LSU v. Ole Miss +7 | Top | 40-24 | Loss | -105 | 141 h 12 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss + I really like the value we are getting here with Ole Miss at home. The Rebels have been an afterthought in the SEC West, largely because they aren't eligible for postseason play. They also have some ugly losses mixed in there, losing by 20+ to Cal, Alabama and Auburn. All of those were on the road. This team showed up in their SEC home opener last week, crushing a good Vanderbilt team 57-35. I think we get another great effort here by the Rebels and talent wise Ole Miss is every bit as good as LSU. They also are playing with revenge from an embarrassing 21-38 loss to at LSU last year. The Tigers looked lost early against Auburn last week, falling behind 20-0 before rallying to win 27-23. That was a big game at home against a Top 10 opponent. I think the Tigers put everything they had into that one and are going to have a hard time showing up for this game. This is still the same LSU team that lost to Troy at home and by 30 at Mississippi State. Ole Miss has the skill players in the passing game to attack this Tigers defense. I look for the Rebels to score early and often this one. Should have no problem keeping this within a touchdown and wouldn't be shocked if they won outright. Take Ole Miss! |
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10-21-17 | South Florida v. Tulane +11.5 | 34-28 | Win | 105 | 128 h 41 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG  on Tulane + It's been smooth sailing for South Florida in 2017, as the Bulls have opened up the season 6-0 and have won each of their last 3 by 30-points. No surprise as this team has played about as easy of a schedule as you will find. A lot of teams would be 6-0 if they started out against San Jose St, Stony Brook, Illinois, Temple, East Carolina and Cincinnati. Not a single one of those FBS teams they have faced own a winning record and Temple is the best of the bunch at 3-4. Now the Bulls have to hit the road and play a much-improved Tulane team in what's going to be their biggest game of the season outside of a bowl game if they get there. The Green Wave have made big strides in year two under Willie Fritz. They are going to play keep away from the Bulls and use that 10th ranked rushing attack to grind out possessions, which is going to where down the USF defense and keep the Bulls' offense out of sync. I think USF does enough to stay unbeaten, but I think this one comes right down to the wire. Take Tulane! |
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10-21-17 | Southern Miss +3 v. Louisiana Tech | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 91 h 26 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Southern Miss + Louisiana Tech has had trouble winning close games this year. The most recent was a 22-23 defeat at UAB, who didn't play football a season ago. I just don't think they are very good this year. However, a lot of people still trust them based on the fact they have won 9 games each of the last 3 seasons. I think people will be drawn to La Tech laying a small number at home off a bye, but I'm taking the points with the Golden Eagles, who have won 2 straight and 4 of 5. The most recent a 24-0 beatdown of UTEP, where they outgained the Miners 423 to 147 with a 20 to 6 edge in first downs. Coming off a bye isn't always a good thing. The Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a bye. The Golden Eagles are 28-13 ATS in their last 41 road games after a win by 21 or more points and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 overall. We also have a strong system favoring a play on Southern Miss based off the spot we find them. Road underdogs who are excellent offensive teams (440+ ypg) vs a good offensive team (390 to 440 ypg) are 30-8 ATS over the last 10 seasons after a game in which they outgained their opponent by 225 or more total yards. Take Southern Miss! |
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10-21-17 | Illinois v. Minnesota -13 | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 16 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Situational ATS NO BRAINER on Minnesota - Good spot here to jump back on the Golden Gopher bandwagon. Minnesota's stock has taken a huge hit as they have followed up their 3-0 start with 3 straight losses. Lucky for them they get a chance to get right against the worst team in the conference in Illinois, who just lost at home to Rutgers by double-digits. They also have a 29-point defeat to Iowa and 22-point loss at home to Nebraska on the resume. Key here is that we can count on a big time effort from the Gophers, as they can't afford to overlook Illinois after losing 3 straight. That should be all it takes for them to win here by at least 2 touchdowns.  It's been a good spot to back Minnesota, as they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off a conference loss. Illinois on the other hand is 11-27 ATS in their last 38 off a SU loss and 8-20 ATS in their last 28 on the road. Take Minnesota! |
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10-21-17 | Indiana v. Michigan State -7 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 124 h 18 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Michigan State - I like the value here with the Spartans laying just a touchdown at home against the Hoosiers. Michigan State has started out 5-1, but I don't feel they get the respect they deserve due to the fact that they lost at home to Notre Dame by a final of 18-38. That was a very misleading score, as the Spartans actually outgained the Irish by 141 yards. They bounced back with an impressive win at home over Iowa and followed it up with road wins over both Michigan and Minnesota. I see no reason why they won't be able to take care of business against Indiana, who I think is still getting a lot of love for how they played Ohio State for 3 quarters at home in their opener. This team lost by 31 at Penn State last time they were away from home. Even with that loss and non-cover against Notre Dame, the Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home and own a perfect 6-0 ATS record at home in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 years. Indiana hasn't covered in 4 straight conference games and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 trips to East Lansing. Take Michigan State! |
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10-21-17 | Indiana v. Michigan State OVER 45 | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 15 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF No Limit TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Michigan State OVER I like the value here with this low total and these two Big Ten teams going over the mark set by the books. It wouldn't be anything new, as the OVER is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings with a perfect 4-0 mark the last 4 times they have faced off in East Lansing. Michigan State should have no problem moving the chains and finishing off drives as they have the 40th ranked rushing attack at 192.2 ypg and will be up against a Indiana defense that ranks 79th against the run, giving up just over 170 ypg. The offensive numbers for the Spartans aren't great, but that has a lot to do with the fact that half of their games have been against Notre Dame, Michigan and Iowa. Indiana's offense should be able to provide enough here to push this over the mark. The Hoosiers put up 20 on Michigan last week and 21 against Ohio State. I think they can get to at least 20 here and the Spartans should be able to do the rest. OVER is 35-15 in Michigan State's last 50 games when they enter having covered the spread in at least 4 of their last 6 and 40-16 in Indiana's last 56 games when listed as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take the OVER! |
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10-21-17 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech -20.5 | 7-59 | Win | 100 | 32 h 19 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF NO Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Virginia Tech - This might seem like a big number for the Hokies to be laying, but I really like what I have seen from this Virginia Tech team and feel they are flying a bit under the radar after failing to cover their last two. The thing is they were getting a little too much love against Clemson at home and got rolled. They were then a huge letdown spot at BC and won by 13 as a 14-pt favorite. UNC has covered one spread all season and that was at Old Dominion. The Tar Heels are just 1-6 overall and have lost by double-digits in 3 of their last 4 games. UNC ranks 114th in total defense and 99th in total offense. The Hokies are 23rd in total defense and 26th in total offense. This is a complete mismatch and even more so with Va Tech off a bye. Great system in play that backs a fade of the Tar Heels in this one. Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that have failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and have won 25% or less of their games are a mere 9-34 (21%) ATS vs a team with a winning record. Take Virginia Tech. |
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10-21-17 | Arizona State v. Utah OVER 56 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -102 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Utah OVER I think we are seeing a much lower total than what we should, due to the fact that Arizona State is coming off a 13-7 win at home over Washington. Everything went right for the Sun Devils in that one and I'm banking on their defense returning to form and giving up a bunch of points. Prior to holding the Huskies to 7-points, Arizona State had allowed at least 30 points in each of their previous 11 games. It's still not official, but Utah's offense could be getting a big boost with the return of starting quarterback Tyler Huntley. If he plays this thing should fly over the mark, but I still think we get to 57 rather easily if he doesn't Both of these defenses are in huge letdown spots. While the Sun Devils were laying it all on the line against USC, the Utes were at USC and suffered a crushing 27-28 loss. These two teams combined for 75 points a year ago and that was with an identical total of 56 points. Utah's defense strength has been stopping the run under Whittingham, but they can be attacked through the air. In fact, the OVER is 12-4 the last 16 times the Utes have faced a poor rushing team that is averaging 3.25 or less yards/carry and these games have averaged over 62 points. Take the OVER! |
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10-21-17 | Iowa +105 v. Northwestern | 10-17 | Loss | -100 | 121 h 46 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa Forget the spread in this one and just take the Hawkeyes to win on the money line. Northwestern is fresh off an impressive 37-21 win at Maryland and I think it has the Wildcats overrated. That's a Maryland team that is down to their 3rd string quarterback and a huge drop-off in terms of talent from the first two guys. The only other wins are against Bowling Green, who is awful and Nevada, who is currently 1-6 and they trailed the Wolf Pack by 10 in the 2nd half. Iowa on the other hand is a team that I think is flying a bit under the radar, as they are a few breaks away from being undefeated. They gave up a touchdown on the final play of the game in a 19-21 home loss to Penn State and the very next week gave Michigan State all they could handle in a 10-17 loss (fumbled twice in MSU territory). Hawkeyes have a big edge here in terms of scheduling, as they have had a full two weeks to prepare for this one coming off their bye. Iowa also matches up well with this Northwestern team. The Wildcats offense relies on their ability to run the ball and that plays into the strength of Iowa's physical front 7. Hawkeyes also have one of the top offensive lines, which is going to open up holes in the running game and allow quarterback Nathan Stanley to attack a Northwestern secondary that ranks 102nd in the country, giving up 250 ypg. Wildcats are just 9-22 ATS under Fitzgerald at home against a team with a winning record and only 4-15 ATS at home against teams that are outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game. Iowa is also a road covering machine, as they are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 road games. Take Iowa! |
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10-21-17 | Louisville v. Florida State UNDER 59.5 | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 99 h 59 m | Show | |
3* NCAAF Early Bird Total DOMINATOR on Louisville/Florida St UNDER I think we are getting some great value here with this total in Saturday's ACC matchup between Louisville and Florida State. These totals with the Cardinals have been inflated all season and I think it's definitely inflated here after they combined for 87 points last week against Boston College. The number here is also high due to the fact these two teams combined for 83 last year with Louisville accounting for 63. I just don't see that kind of offensive output this time around. While Lamar Jackson has great numbers, this Louisville team isn't as good as it was last year. Defenses have a much better game-plan for Jackson and we have seen him struggle against the two best defenses he's faced in Clemson and NC State. I put this FSU defense right up there with those two. At the same time, this isn't just another game for the Seminoles defense. Don't think for a second they have forgot about what Jackson and company did to them last year. The 63 points that Louisville scored was the most points ever allowed by a Florida State team. This defense has had this came circled and I expect them to play their best game of the season. On the other side of this, Florida State's offense continues to struggle without starting quarterback Deondre Francois. They had 425 total yards last week against Duke and only managed 17 points. They are 122nd in the country at 18.2 ppg. I know the Louisville defense isn't playing very well, but I think they can keep this offense from going off and that should have us well below the mark here set by the books. Take the UNDER! |
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10-20-17 | Colorado State v. New Mexico +7 | 27-24 | Win | 105 | 107 h 5 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Friday Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on New Mexico + I like the value here with the Lobos catching a touchdown at home against Colorado State. I believe we are getting value because of the fact that New Mexico is fresh off a 38-0 loss at Fresno State in a game they were favored to win (-2.5). As well as the fact that the Rams enter having won 3 straight and beat the Lobos by 18 in last year's meeting. Keep in mind that Colorado State was just a 6.5-point home favorite in that meeting last year. When you factor in the 3.5 points for home field and this line should be closer to 3 than 7. New Mexico simply laid an egg last week. I actually like the fact that they are coming off an embarrassing loss, as we can count on them coming into this game with a chip on their shoulder. They also are going to benefit from playing at home under the lights. At the same time we could see Colorado State not take them as seriously as they should. I also think people are quick to overlook that the Rams barely snuck out a 44-42 win at home last week against Nevada as a massive 24-point favorite. It puts Colorado State in a historically bad spot, as they are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games off a win by 6 points or less. New Mexico is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring less than 20 points. They also have fared well against high-scoring teams like Colorado State, as they are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games vs a team that's averaging 31+ points/game. Take New Mexico! |
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10-20-17 | Warriors -8 v. Pelicans | 128-120 | Push | 0 | 21 h 9 m | Show | |
4* NBA Late Night VEGAS INSIDER  on Warriors - Unfortunately for the Pelicans they are going to get a pissed off Warriors team, who has to be chomping at the bit to get back on the floor after blowing a 15-point lead in the 2nd half in a 121-122 home loss to the Rockets. There was some concern here with Draymond Green being able to play, but he's going to be in action. New Orleans has two of the best big men in the game, but that's about it. Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins both had a double-double and combined for 61 points, but only managed 91 for the game and lost by 8 to a pretty average Memphis team. I just don't see the Pelicans having enough offense, mainly 3-point shooting, to keep this competitive. Take Golden State! |
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10-20-17 | Jazz v. Wolves UNDER 198.5 | 97-100 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/UNDER Total DOMINATOR on Jazz UNDER The Timberwolves should be one of the more improved defensive teams this season. They added in Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson and Jeff Teague to pair with Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is a defensive first guy and after not playing well on that side of the ball against the Spurs in the opener, I expect a strong showing at home against the Jazz. Utah is also the ideal teal for a team to go up against when you want to a low-scoring affair. The Jazz don't play at a frantic pace and are very strong defensively with the best rim protector in the game in Gobert. They allowed the fewest points in the league last year, giving up just 96.8 ppg and were on point in their opener, allowing just 96 to a very good Denver team that wants to get up and down the floor. UNDER is 21-9 in the T-Wolves last 30 games against a division opponent and 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games against the Jazz. Take the UNDER! |
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10-20-17 | Yankees v. Astros -137 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
3* Yankees/Astros Game 6 HEAVY HITTER on Houston - It's hard to go against a team that's won 3 straight, but I just see too much value here in the Astros at home with Verlander on the mound. Verlander has been lights out down the stretch and was incredible in Game 2 against these Yankees, giving up just 1 run with 13 K's, while going the distance. Yankees send out Luis Severino, who I'm not convinced can shoulder the load of this game. All I can recall is that Wild Card start against the Twins, where he gave up 3 runs while recording just 1 out in the Top of the 1st before getting pulled. He also wasn't great in Game 2 opposite of Verlander, lasting just 4 innings without a single strikeout. I think Houston's offense comes to life here and they send this to a Game 7. Take Houston! |
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10-20-17 | Magic v. Nets OVER 223.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets OVER Defense is clearly not a priority for the Nets. Brooklyn ranked 2nd to last in points allowed last year at 112.5 ppg and started out the 2017 season by giving up 140 to a Pacers team that lost their best scorer in Paul George. The big difference is that the Nets now have some offensive fire-power to stay with teams. They scored 131 against the Pacers and even with the loss of Lin, should continue to score at a high rate. Orlando put up 116 in their opener against the Heat, while giving up 109 and that was with Miami shooting just 43% from the field. Both these teams want to push the pace and play in the open court, which should have us flying over the mark set by the books. History is also on our side here. The OVER is hitting at a 61% clip since 1996 when you have a team off a combined score of 225 or more against a team off a combined score of 235 or more. Take the OVER! |
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10-20-17 | Pistons +6.5 v. Wizards | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued UNDERDOG on Pistons + I'm taking the points here with Detroit in Friday's showdown at Washington. The Wizards had their hands full in their home opener against the 76ers, where they failed to cover as a 7-point favorite. I just feel Washington is getting a little too much love to start the season. They are down starting power forward Markieff Morris and could be without his backup in Jason Smith, leaving them very thin at the 4. Detroit really impressed in their opener, defeating a good Charlotte team by 12 at home. They held the Hornets to just 90 points and under 40% from the field. They also took great care of the ball with just 9 turnovers. I like their chances of keeping this close and could easily see them winning this outright. Take Detroit. |
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10-20-17 | Cavs -2 v. Bucks | 116-97 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NBA Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Cavs - Not to take anything away from the Bucks, who are going to be a force in the east for years to come, but this is simply too good of a price to pass up on the Cavs. Cleveland let a big lead slip away in an unfortunate non-cover against the Celtics at home on Tuesday, winning 102-99 as a 4.5-point favorite. That's helped us here with this line, plus we can count on the Cavs not taking their foot off the gas in this one. Losing Irving hurts, but I really like the moves Cleveland made in the offseason and really believe they are a better overall team than they were a year ago and will only get better once Isaiah Thomas returns from injury. The Cavs know the Bucks are a team on the rise and will want to make a statement against their division rivals early on. Whether it's a big home crowd or sold out arena on the road, Cleveland has been a great bet on Friday, going 23-8 ATS over their last 31, which includes a 13-4 ATS mark over the last 2 seasons. Take Cleveland! |
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10-20-17 | Pistons v. Wizards OVER 210.5 | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons OVER Washington combined for 235 points with the 76ers in their home opener and I see another high-scoring game against Detroit at home tonight. The Wizards are down starting power forward Markieff Morris and may also be without his backup in Jason smith, who left the last game with a shoulder injury. They don't have a lot of other options outside of moving Kelly Oubre Jr. into the 4, which becomes a much more uptempo offense in their version of 'small ball' Detroit held the Hornets to just 90 points in their opener, but Charlotte was down 3 key players in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Nicolas Batum and Michael-Carter Williams. While that aided their defense, the Pistons offense was sharp, connecting on 43% from the field. They are more than capable of running with the Wizards. Both teams should easily get to 100 points and have this finishing closer to 220. Take the OVER! |
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10-20-17 | Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State +3 | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 51 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Middle Tennessee State + I like the value we are getting here with the Blue Raiders catching a field goal at home against Marshall. The betting public is all over the Thundering Herd because of the fact that Middle Tennessee is without starting quarterback Brent Stockhill. The books know this and have certainly inflated this line in the Blue Raiders favor. The thing is, Middle Tennessee does have a capable backup in sophomore John Urzua, who has flashed some decent potential, throwing for 359 yards against FAU. Marshal comes in with some great defensive numbers and actually rank 25th in the country in total defense, giving up just 321.7 ypg. I'm not saying they aren't good, they just aren't as good as that ranking would suggest. The Thundering Herd have 5 games against Miami (OH), Kent St, Cincinnati, Charlotte and Old Dominion. The only decent offense they have faced is NC State and they gave up 37 points and nearly 500 yards of offense. The other thing with Marshall's easy schedule is the concerns that they only rank 93rd in total offense. That's extremely low given the talent they have faced. Middle Tennessee's defense ranks 40th and has been tested by the likes of Vanderbilt, Syracuse and Minnesota. I think Marshall struggles to get the offense going on the road in what's going to be a hostile environment under the lights. Take Middle Tennessee! |
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10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders +3 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 4 m | Show |
5* Chiefs/Raiders AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Raiders + I really like the value here with Oakland catching points at home in a prime time Thursday night matchup. It can't be underestimated how tough it is on the road team in these Thursday game and this a long trip out West for the Chiefs. Kansas City has been praised as the league's best team, but looked nothing like it in last week's home loss to the Steelers, where they couldn't even get a first down in the 1st half. It has them overvalued here by the books. Oakland has lost 4 straight and are now just 2-4 on the season. A loss here and there hopes of making the playoffs take a huge hit. This is every bit a "must-win" game for the home team Expect to see the Raiders lay everything on the line and you can count on a rowdy and loud crowd here, as these two fan bases hate the opposing team. The home team has a big edge in these rivalry games and I look for the Raiders to save their season here and pull out the win. Take Oakland! |
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10-19-17 | Knicks v. Thunder UNDER 215 | Top | 84-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
5* Knicks/Thunder NO LIMIT Top Play on Thunder/Knicks UNDER This is just too many points for this matchup. I believe we are seeing a high total here because of the fact that the Thunder now have 3 superstars in Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. As good as those 3 are, it's going to take some time for these guys to form a chemistry on offense. George and Anthony are accustomed to being "the guy," but will have to learn to take a back seat to Westbrook. I think it takes as much as the first 20 games before this team really gels. The other thing is the depth isn't what it use to be. The Thunder are going struggle to get a whole lot out of their bench. There's also a decent chance the starters don't play the entire game here, as the Knicks have the makings of one of the worst teams in the league. New York just doesn't have the offensive fire-power and in today's game where everyone is lighting up the scoreboard, they didn't even average 100 ppg in the preseason when no one is playing defense. I don't see the offense doing much here on the road in what's going to be electric atmosphere inside Chesapeake Energy Arena. Take the UNDER! |
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10-19-17 | Knicks v. Thunder -12 | 84-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Thunder - I see no reason why OKC won't turn this into a blowout against the Knicks tonight, as they open the season at home in a nationally televised game on TNT. This team built around the all-star trio of Westbrook, Anthony and George aren't going to be as good right now as they will be in December, but they don't need to be great to dismantle this Knicks team. New York is in full on rebuilding mode and simply don't have the offensive playmakers to keep this close. Rookie point guard Frank Ntilikina will be wondering what he got himself into when he tries to guard Westbrook. At the same time, Westbrook is going to make his life miserable when he has the ball. The Knicks didn't even average 100 points/game in the preseason and I don't see them coming close to the century mark in this one. There's also a little extra incentive here for the Thunder players to make sure Carmelo gets a win against his former team. It might not be pretty at times, but OKC should pull away and win this by at least 15 points. Take Oklahoma City! |
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10-19-17 | Memphis +3 v. Houston | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 84 h 15 m | Show | |
3* Memphis/Houston Thurs Night ATS NO BRAINER on Memphis + I like the value here with the Tigers catching points against the Cougars. I really think Memphis is the much better team and should be favored in this contest. I had hight hopes for this Houston team coming into the season,  even after losing Herman. A big reason for that was they added in Texas A&M transfer Kyle Allen, who was the number recruit in his class at QB out of high school. Allen was a complete bust and quickly lost his job. Backup Kyle Postma hasn't been a whole lot better, as he's thrown 5 picks. Clearly there's something wrong with the offense if they are only scoring 17 points against Tulsa, who they lost to 17-45. The same Tulsa team that had started 1-5 and just lost 28-62 to Navy. Overall the Cougars are averaging just 25.5 ppg, which more than 10 points less than last year's average of 35.8. Memphis' offense ranks 14th in the country behind one the nation's most potent passing attacks that's headlined by quarterback Riley Ferguson (1,814 yards, 19-5 TD-INT ratio) and wide out Anthony Miller (45 catches, 606 yards, 9 TDs). The Tigers defense is also much better than the numbers, as their opponents in 2017 are averaging 472 ypg. They have simply faced some dynamic offenses. I'll take the team that's going to have the much easier time moving the ball in this one. Take Memphis! |
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10-19-17 | Bulls +13 v. Raptors | 100-117 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bulls + I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with this line. It's well known the Bulls are going to be one of the worst teams in the league and they were just in the news for the wrong reasons with a couple teammates getting into it at practice. No one is giving this team a shot and while I don't see them winning this game, I think they surprise here and keep it much closer than expected. As good as the Raptors are it's not going to be easy to get excited about playing a team like Chicago, who has a bunch of nobody's on the roster. The one thing to keep in mind is that with the loss of Rondo, Butler and Wade, they can incorporate more of head coach Fred Hoiberg's offensive scheme, which is floor spacing and attacking with the 3-point shot. Toronto also has a history of not being able to cash against this team. The Bulls are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 trips to Toronto. They make it 8-0 tonight. Take Chicago! |
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10-19-17 | UL-Lafayette v. Arkansas State UNDER 65.5 | 3-47 | Win | 100 | 52 h 7 m | Show | |
3* Lafayette/Arkansas St Sun Belt DESTROYER on Lafayette UNDER These weekday Sun Belt games are much lower-scoring than the overall numbers would suggest. So while we have two defenses that are near the bottom of the country in yards allowed, I expect this to go under the high total that's been set here. One of the reasons the defensive numbers are so bad for these teams is the big programs they play in non-conference. Lafayette played both Tulsa and Texas A&M and Arkansas State had to face both Nebraska and SMU. A prime example of how much lower-scoring these games can be is last week's contest with Lafayette against Texas State. The total was 55 and getting pounded by the public, yet the game finished with a final score of 24-7. The previous week the Ragin' Cajuns scored just 21 against Idaho. Arkansas State has allowed just 25 and 17 points in their two conference games. UNDER is 10-2-1 in Lafayette's last 13 conference games and 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. UNDER is also 11-4-1 in Arkansas State's last 16 overall, and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU win by more than 20 points. Take the UNDER! |
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10-18-17 | 76ers v. Wizards OVER 215 | 115-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on 76ers/Wizards OVER I think we are going to see a ton off offense and very little defense in the first of ESPN's double-header on Wednesday. The Wizards were 5th in the league last year at 109.2 ppg and should be every bit as explosive with their core back. Washington's defense wasn't great, giving up 107.4 ppg and I look for them to have their hands full against what many believe will be one of the most improved teams in the league. The 76ers not only have a healthy Embiid, but they get last year's No. 1 pick Ben Simmons after he didn't play at all last season, plus add in this year's No. 1 pick in Markelle Fultz. Not to mention a sneaky good free agent signing in sharpshooter J.J. Redick from the Clippers. When healthy, this is one of the deeper teams in the league and I expect them to look to push the pace with Simmons and Fultz. While they could develop into a decent defensive team, that's going to take some time and probably won't be for a season or two, as they are so young and don't have a lot of chemistry together. Both teams should score well over a 100 points in this one. Take the OVER! |
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10-18-17 | Nets +3.5 v. Pacers | 131-140 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued UNDERDOG on Nets + The Nets were an NBA-worst 20-62 last year and have been one of the public's favorite teams to fade for the past few seasons. The public isn't going to hesitate laying the points here with the Pacers, as they will just go off what they remember from last year. The thing is, these are two drastically different teams. Indiana is in rebuilding mode after losing Paul George. The Nets on the other hand are improved, brining in the likes of D'Angelo Russell, DeMarre Carroll and Allen Crabbe, plus several others who figure to contribute. They also have a healthy Jeremy Lin at the point and when he was on the floor this team was a lot more competitive a season ago. I'll take the points as some added insurance, but I full expect the Nets to win this game outright. Take Brooklyn! |
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10-18-17 | Hornets v. Pistons UNDER 204 | 90-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Pistons UNDER Both the Pistons and Hornets figure to be in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race and I think both teams are going to rely heavily on the defense this season. Charlotte went out an added Dwight Howard, who needs the game to be played at a slow pace to be a serious factor. The projected starting 5 lacks scoring outside of point guard Kemba Walker. Detroit's not much different, as they are built around big man Andre Drummond. The Pistons also added one of the premier perimeter defenders in Avery Bradley, who I'm sure will be matched up with Walker. Detroit ranked 26th in scoring last year and I don't see any reason to expect them to be much better. Both were Top 15 in scoring defense and while today's NBA features a lot more high-scoring games, I think we see a defensive battle here in the opener, which is also the first game in Detroit's new arena. Take the UNDER! |
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10-18-17 | Astros v. Yankees +1.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
4* Astros/Yankees Game 5 HEAVY HITTER on Yankees +1.5 - Much like they did in the ALDS the Yankees have rallied from an 0-2 deficit to tie up the series 2-2 with Houston.  The most recent win coming in dramatic fashion, as New York turned a 0-4 deficit into a 6-4 win by scoring 6 runs in the 7th and 8th. I like the Yankees to keep the momentum going, but I'm going to play the +1.5 run line for some added insurance. All signs point to Game 5 being a low-scoring game, which only increases the likelihood of this one being decided by just 1 run. Houston sends out ace Dallas Keuchel, while the Yankees counter with the red-hot Masahiro Tanaka, who has a 0.90 ERA and 0.600 WHIP in his last 3 starts, with a 1.38 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in his 2 playoff appearances. Tanaka was also 10-5 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in 16 home starts this season. Houston is just 4-14 against the run line in road games after a contest where the bullpen allowed 5 or more earned runs and 5-18 in Keuchel's last 23 starts after a loss. Take New York +1.5! |
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10-17-17 | Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 232 | 122-121 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 32 m | Show | |
3* Rockets/Warriors Opening Night TOTAL DESTROYER on Warriors UNDER I like the value here with the massive total for Tuesday's opener between the Warriors and Rockets. These two teams were offensive juggernauts last year, but I just don't see this being a shootout. While the Warriors have basically the same team back from last year, Houston has added a huge new piece to the puzzle in point guard Chris Paul. The addition of Paul should make the Rockets a better team, but I think it's going to take some time for this team to find their chemistry. Last year James Harden dominated the ball and the offense ran completely through him. Paul is a similar type of player, who is at his best when the ball is in his hands. It's going to take some time for them to figure it out. Golden State's offense will be tough to stop, but this Houston team is as talented and deep as you will find and we can bank on the Rockets giving everything they have here against the defending champs and favorites to win it all this year. As for the Warriors, I think there's enough distractions here with the ring ceremony that we see a them come out less than 100% focused. Houston also added a couple of defensive minded players in P.J. Tucker and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, who give them a better shot at slowing down Durant, plus you now have Paul guarding Curry. Take the UNDER! |
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10-17-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs -113 | 6-1 | Loss | -113 | 26 h 4 m | Show | |
3* Dodgers/Cubs NLCS Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Cubs - I like the value here with Chicago to take care business at home and get back into this series after losing each of the first two in LA. The Cubs aren't a team to panic and seem to relish having their backs against the wall. The offense struggled in Los Angeles, but will return home, where they averaged 5.3 runs/game on the season. Chicago will give the rock to Kyle Hendricks, who I expect to dominate this Dodgers, much like he has in the past. Hendricks has a 2.20 ERA and 0.704 WHIP in 5 career starts against LA. He faced them twice in last year's NLCS and limited the Dodgers to just 1 run on 5 hits with 11 strikeouts in 12 2/3 inning of work. LA's bullpen has been great, but the Dodgers are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games after 3 straight games where the bullpen didn't allow a run. Dodgers are just 6-13 in their last 19 playoff road games and 1-10 in their last 11 road games in the NLCS. Cubs are 31-12 in their last 43 off a loss and 20-8 in Hendricks last 28 starts after scoring 2 or less in their previous game. Take Chicago! |
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10-17-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
5* MLB Postseason TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UNDER I absolutely love the UNDER in tonight's NLCS Game 3 between the Cubs and Dodgers. Two outstanding pitchers will face off, as Chicago sends out Kyle Hendricks, while Los Angeles gives the rock to Yu Darvish. Hendricks is your modern day Greg Maddux, who relies on exceptional location and movement to attack hitters. He comes in with a 2.25 ERA in his last 3 starts and most importantly has owned the Dodgers. He's got a 2.20 ERA and 0.704 WHIP in 5 career starts against the Dodgers. Two of those coming in last year's NLCS, where he allowed just 1 run on 5 hits with 11 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings of work. Darvis had his struggles early with LA, but has a 1.04 ERA and 0.519 WHIP in his last 3 starts. UNDER is 24-6-1 in Hendricks's last 31 starts against a team with a winning record and 6-1 in his last 7 starts overall. UNDER is also 6-1 in the Cubs last 7 playoff home games and 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 road games against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! |
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10-17-17 | Astros v. Yankees -117 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 3 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Yankees - No Analysis on LATE INFO INSIDERS |
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10-16-17 | Colts +7.5 v. Titans | 22-36 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 5 m | Show | |
3* Colts/Titans MNF ATS ANNIHILATOR  on Colts + I like the value here with the Colts catching over a touchdown against the Titans on Monday Night Football. Tennessee will have starting quarterback Marcus Mariota, but I don't think that hamstring is 100% just yet. One of things that makes Mariota so good is his mobility and without it I think the Titans offense struggles to do enough here to pull away from a Colts team that has continued to play hard without Andrew Luck. The Colts offense was put in a difficult spot to start the season, having to trade for Jacoby Brissett right before the year started. They looked a lot better last time out against the 49ers, piling on 447 yards of total offense and 25 first downs. I think this unit will continue to play well going forward, especially against a sub-par defense like the Titans, which ranks in the bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. Tennessee is a miserable 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games against other AFC teams, 2-13 ATS in their last 15 against a team with a losing record and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs a team that allows 24+ points/game. Take Indianapolis! |
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10-16-17 | Astros v. Yankees -1.5 | 1-8 | Win | 165 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
3* Astros/Yankees Game 3 HEAVY HITTER on Yankees -1.5 I confident the Yankees will walk away with a win in Game 3 that I'll take the gamble here and play the run line and call for them to win by at least 2 to bring home a bigger profit. New York has been in this spot before, as they were down 0-2 to the Indians before taking the final three to advance to the ALCS. While they have lost the first two in this series, both could have win the other way, as they fell 2-1 in each contest. A return home should be just what the Yankees need to get back in the series, plus they have the red-hot C.C. Sabathia on the mound in this one. Sabathia doesn't have the stamina to go deep in games, but he can you a solid 5 to 6 innings and let that elite NY bullpen do the rest. Key here is the Yankees offense should provide some help, as Houston sends out Charlie Morton, which is quite a big drop off from the Astros first two starters in the series in Keuchel and Verlander. Teams that have lost 2 straight by exactly 1 run against an opponent that has scored and allowed 3 or less in their last game are 58-30 against the run line over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% long-term system in favor of the Yankees not only winning, but winning by at least 2. Take New York! |
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10-15-17 | Giants v. Broncos UNDER 39.5 | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 101 h 24 m | Show | |
3* Giants/Broncos SNF Total NO BRAINER on Denver UNDER This one shouldn't need a whole lot of explanation. Denver's defense is one of the best in the NFL and will be taking on a depleted New York offense that is without it's top three wideouts in Odell Beckham Jr, Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard. Not to mention an offensive line that has been atrocious and zero threat of a running game. Eli Manning is going to have to work wonders here just to get first downs, as he's getting a fresh Denver defense off a bye and playing at home in a prime time game. While the offense figures to struggle to put points on the board, there's still a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball for the Giants. Denver comes in averaging a modest 24.5 ppg, but have actually only scored more than 24 points once all season. They have managed just 16 in each of their last two games against the Bills and Raiders. UNDER is 30-16 in the Giants last 46 road games against AFC opponents and 8-1 in the Broncos last 9 games vs a team from the NFC. UNDER is also 23-8 in New York's last 31against strong defensive teams that are allowing 4.75 or less yards/play. Take the UNDER! |
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