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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 38.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 96 h 29 m | Show |
5* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR  on Vikings OVER I love the value here with the total in Sunday's NFC Championship Game between the Vikings and Eagles. I know these are two teams are built around their defenses, but it's not asking a lot to hit 40 points with the talent these two have on the offensive side of the ball. Minnesota's offense is better than it gets credit for. The Vikings have score 23 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. They put up 29 last week against a solid Saints defense and I expect them to be around that 23-27 mark in this one. The Eagles come in averaging 27.8 ppg, but haven't been quite as potent with Nick Foles under center. They put up just 15 on the Falcons last week, but did have some success moving the ball. They just had to settle for a couple field goals and had two costly turnovers. Minnesota's defense is very good, but it's not as dominant on the road. All we need is to average 10-points a quarter to clear this mark and I think we get that and some more. OVER is 15-4 in the Vikings last 19 road games off a home win where they failed to cover as a favorite and 7-0 in the Eagles last 7 games after posting a turnover margin of -1 or worse in two straight games. Take the OVER! |
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01-21-18 | Nets v. Pistons -6 | 101-100 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational ATS NO BRAINER on Pistons - I like the value here with Detroit at home against Brooklyn on Sunday. The Pistons come in having dropped 4 straight and their last two at home have seen them lose by 11 to the Hornets and 10 to the Wizards. Guys going in and out of the lineup played a big part of the struggles for Detroit during this stretch and that's why I'm confident backing them here with a near full roster. The other thing is how Detroit has historically bounced back from a bad loss, especially when that defeat came on their home floor. The Pistons are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 home games off a loss as a favorite and an even better 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 or more points. Take Detroit! |
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01-21-18 | Manhattan +5.5 v. St. Peter's | 68-57 | Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Manhattan + I like the value here with the Jaspers catching points on the road against the Peacocks. These are two very similar teams and this line suggests that St. Peter's is the superior side. I don't think that's the case at all and wouldn't be the last bit surprised if the Jaspers won this game outright. The other big thing here is the Peacocks aren't playing great basketball right now. St. Peter's comes in having lost 3 straight. The most recent being a 84-88 outright loss at home to Rider as a 4-point favorite. Peacocks are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Jaspers on the other hand are 4-1 ATS last 5 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Manhattan! |
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01-20-18 | Pepperdine +11.5 v. San Francisco | Top | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Pepperdine + I love the value here with the Waves as a double-digit dog against the Dons on Saturday. We are simply seeing a big overreaction here by the books due to Pepperdine coming in with a 3-16 record and 0-7 mark in league play. San Francisco hasn't exactly been playing well, as they have lost 3 straight, including a 62-65 loss at home to Santa Clara as a 10-point favorite in their last game. The Dons are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a losing record. Adding to this is a great system in favor of the Waves. Road teams off 2 straight conference losses by 10 or more and revenging a same season loss are 89-49 (65%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Pepperdine! |
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01-20-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +4.5 | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockets + I like the value here with the Rockets here at home in Saturday's big showdown with the Warriors. James Harden returned to action in Houston's last game and the Rockets cruised to a 116-98 win over a Timberwolves team that had been playing very well. The Rockets might not be able to beat the Warriors in a 7-game series, but I like their chances here at home in this 1-game set, as this one simply means more to Houston than it does Golden State. Warriors are overvalued just about every time they take the floor, but even more so when they go up against a good team and the numbers back it up. Golden State is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Adding to all of this is a great system in favor of fading the Warriors. Teams off a road win as a favorite where they failed to cover the spread are just 16-40 (29%) ATS in the month of January over the last 5 seasons. Take Houston! |
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01-20-18 | Bucks v. 76ers -6.5 | 94-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Sixers - I like the value here with Philadelphia at home against the Bucks on Saturday. The 76ers are rolling right now. They have won 6 of their last 7 and fresh off a 89-80 win at Boston. They caught a break with the Celtics not having Irving and will catch an even bigger break here, as the Bucks will be without Antetokoumpo and Brogdon. Milwaukee struggles as it is with the Greek Freak and I just don't see how they are going to be competitive on the road here without him. Not having him on the floor doesn't just hurt their ability to score, but it takes a lot away from their defense. 76ers are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 when they come in having won 3 of 4 and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after covering 2 or more straight games. This is a team you want to keep riding when they are playing well. Take Philadelphia! |
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01-20-18 | Marist +16.5 v. Rider | 57-60 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas ATS NO BRAINER on Marist + I like the value here with the Red Foxes as a big road dog against the Broncs. Maris is just 4-14 on the season, but 2 of those wins have come in league play. That poor record has led to them being undervalued by the books and they come in having covered 3 straight. The most recent being a mere 3-point loss at Siena as a 7.5-point dog. They also lost by just 1-point at Quinnipiac as a 7.5-point dog in their previous road game. Rider comes in playing well, but are just 12-25 ATS in their last 37 home games when they come in having won 4 of their last 5. The Red Foxes have been a great bet against good teams, going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. The road team is also 12-5 ATS in their last 17 meetings overall. Take Marist! |
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01-20-18 | William & Mary +3 v. Elon | 80-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on William & Mary + I like the value here with the Tribe as a short road dog against the Phoenix. William & Mary come in off a couple of blowout losses at home against two of the top teams in the CAA in Northeastern and Towson. Prior to that they had started out 5-0 in conference play and I look for them to bounce back in a big way here against Elon. Tribe are 27-8-2 ATS in their last 37 off a SU loss and 19-7-2 ATS in their last 26 off a double-digit loss at home. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games after playing 3 or more straight games at home and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take William & Mary! |
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01-20-18 | Cal Poly -3.5 v. CS-Northridge | 54-72 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Cal Poly - I like the value here with the Mustangs as a short road favorite against the Matadors. Cal Poly comes in off a couple of hard fought losses on the road against Hawaii and UC-Irvine and I think they are primed to bounce back with a big win here against Northridge. Cal Poly is scoring 73.7 ppg in conference play, while the Matadors are averaging a horrific 59 ppg on just 36.2% shooting. That makes it tough to win regardless if you are playing at home or on the road. Northridge is just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 home games against a team with a losing road record and a mere 1-10 ATS in their last 11 as a home underdog and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games played on Saturday. Take Cal Poly! |
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01-20-18 | Drexel +4.5 v. James Madison | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Drexel + I like the value here with the Dragons catching points on the road against the Dukes. Neither of these teams have been very good in league play, as both come in with a 1-6 record in conference games. I just think the books are giving James Madison too much respect here in what I think is a very evenly matched game, especially with the Dukes missing second leading scorer Joey McLean. Both teams also figure to be a bit fatigued playing on one day of rest and it's a spot that James Madison has struggled with, as they are just 2-13 ATS in their last 15 when playing on 1 or less day  of rest. It's worth noting that last time out the Dragons lost by 22 at Towson, as they are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games off a road loss by 20 or more points. Take Drexel! |
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01-20-18 | Niagara +2.5 v. Fairfield | 85-104 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Early Bird HEAVY HITTER  on Niagara + I like the value here with the Purple Eagles catching points against the Stags. Niagara shouldn't be a dog in this one. Fairfield is just 6-11 overall and a mere 1-5 in league play. The Purple Aces are 12-8 overall with a 5-2 record in conference games and are 7-3 SU and 6-2 ATS on the road this season. Niagara is also playing some of their best basketball right now. They just won at Quinnipiac, extending their winning streak to 5. The Stags are headed in the exact opposite direction, as they have lost 5 straight. The most recent being a 6-point loss at Marist as a 5-point favorite. They also lost the game before that at home to Manhattan as a 6.5-point favorite. Niagara is a big time threat offensively, averaging 83 ppg and that's worth noting as Fairfield is a mere 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs teams who average more than 77 ppg. Purple Eagles are also 26-13 ATS in their last 39 road games vs bad teams who have won between 20% to 40% of their games. Take Niagara! |
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01-20-18 | North Dakota State +3.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | 88-92 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on North Dakota State + I like the value here with the Bison catching points on the road against the Mastodons. North Dakota State comes in off an upset loss at home to in-state rival North Dakota. I believe it's going to have the Bison 100% locked in for this showdown against Ft-Wayne. I don't think there's any question that North Dakota State is the better team. These two teams have 4 common opponents. The Bison are 3-1 in these games, while the Mastodons are just 2-2. NDSU averaged 80.3 ppg against these teams, while giving up only 67 (+13.3). Ft-Wayne only average 72 ppg and allowed 72.8 (-0.8). Mastodons are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 conference games and a mere 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 off a game where they failed to cover the spread. Bison are 5-2 ATS last 7 on the road and 4-0 ATS last 4 off a SU loss. Take North Dakota State! |
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01-19-18 | Pacers -2 v. Lakers | 86-99 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
3* NBA Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Pacers - I like the value here with Indiana as a short road favorite against the Lakers on Friday. I think we are getting a good price here on the Pacers due to the fact that they are playing on no rest and off a 14-point loss to the Blazers where they scored just 86 points. I think the ugly showing last night will actually help get Indiana motivated for a strong showing tonight. More than anything, I think the injury situation for the Lakers is just too much for them to overcome. We know for sure they will be without Ball and Caldwell-Pope and it could get a lot worse. Both Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma are both questionable with injuries. I know they are at home, but I just don't think the Lakers have enough here to keep this competitive. Take Indiana! |
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01-19-18 | Suns +9 v. Nuggets | 108-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational ANNIHILATOR on Suns + I think we are getting some great value here with Phoenix as a near double-digit dog against the Nuggets. Denver just hasn't been able to put it all together this season and a lot of that has to do with the injury to Paul Milsap, which has had him sidelined since late November. He's still out and tonight they aren't expected to have 3rd leading scorer Jamal Murray. I also think we see a tired Nuggets team, as they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Phoenix has lost 3 straight and are just 1-5 in their last 6, but injuries have really played a big part in their struggles. When this team has been healthy or close to, they have been a dangerous team and I think they are more than capable of going into Denver and getting a win. Note that while the Nuggets likely have some tired legs, the Suns are playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. Take Phoenix! |
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01-19-18 | Yale -1.5 v. Brown | Top | 80-81 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Yale - I love the value here with the Bulldogs as a short road favorite against the Bears. These two teams come in with similar overall records and each has played only one league game so far. I think it's got Yale way undervalued here. The Bulldogs were expected to give Harvard a run for their money for the Ivy League title, while Brown was picked by many to finish in the bottom 3 of the league. It also just so happens that these two teams only league game was against each other with Yale winning 78-72 at home. While the Bulldogs only won by 6, it should have been more, as they shot 50% from the field and the Bears shot only 43.4%. I'm not concerned with the change in venue. Yale has been a great road team when in a similar spot to what we see here. The Bulldogs are 33-16 ATS in their last 49 as a road favorite of 6 or less dating back to 1997 and are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons. Take Yale! |
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01-18-18 | UCLA v. Oregon State +2 | Top | 63-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon State + I love the value here with the Beavers as a home dog against the Bruins. UCLA will be the popular side, but I don't trust the Bruins on the road in this spot. Last time out UCLA lost at home to Colorado 59-68 as a 11-point favorite. The Bruins have only played 3 true road games and the lone win was against a bad Cal team. Oregon State might not look like much on paper, especially given they come in having lost 3 of their last 4, but the Beavers are a vastly improved team. Two of those losses came on the road against Arizona and Arizona State (covered both). The other was a 2-point home loss to Utah. Earlier they beat Colorado at home by 19 and I think their ability to frustrate teams defensively will allow them to pull of the upset here. UCLA is just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 off a SU loss, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 on the road vs a team with a winning record. Take Oregon State! |
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01-18-18 | Pepperdine +11 v. Pacific | 78-92 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 60 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Pepperdine + I like the value here with the Waves catching double-digits on the road against the Tigers. Needless to say it's been a tough stretch for Pepperdine, as they come in at just 3-15 overall and are 0-8 on the road and 0-6 in conference play. I believe all of that has the Waves way undervalued here against a pretty average Pacific side that is just 9-10 on the year. I also think it's going to be tough for the Tigers to give the Waves the respect they deserve, as they are riding high off 3 straight wins and have 3 big games against top tier teams in the conference on deck. Pacific comes in off a 66-54 win at Portland as a 3.5-point favorite, which is worth noting, as the Tigers are just 3-11 ATS after playing their previous game as a favorite and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 60 points or less. Take Pepperdine! |
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01-18-18 | Wolves v. Rockets OVER 222.5 | 98-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Rockets OVER I look for the Rockets and Timberwolves to have no problem eclipsing the mark set here by the books. Only the Warriors rank higher than these two teams in offensive efficiency this season and the Rockets are a team that likes to push the pace and should dictate the tempo here at home, as they will have both James Harden and Chris Paul available. While the Rockets have improved defensively this year, they don't figure to be as good on that side of the ball with both Gerald Green and Trevor Ariza not available because of a suspension. It's also worth nothing that last year all 4 meetings saw at least 220 points with both games in Houston combining for at least 141 points. OVER is a perfect 8-0 in the Rockets last 8 home games and 9-1 in the Timberwolves last 10 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! |
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01-18-18 | Rider +2 v. St. Peter's | Top | 88-84 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Rider + I love the value here with the Broncs catching points against the Peacocks. Rider is 11-7 with a 4-2 mark in conference play, while St. Peter's is just 8-9 overall and 2-4 in league play. Last time out the Broncs were embarrassed in a 64-91 defeat at Iona, but that puts them in a great spot to rebound and cover against the Peacocks. Rider is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 80 or more points and a perfect 6-0 ATS after giving up 90+. The Broncs are also 4-1-1 ATS in their lat 6 road games against a team with strong home record of 60% or better. On top of that, the road team in the series is 26-10-2 over the last 38 meetings, with the Broncs going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to St. Peters's. Take Rider! |
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01-18-18 | Drexel +13.5 v. Towson | 68-90 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 0 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog  on Drexel + I like the value here with the Dragons as a big road dog against the Tigers. Last time out Drexel lost at home to Hofstra 86-91. It was a dismal defensive performance by the Dragons, who not only gave up 90 points, but allowed Hofstra to shoot 61% from the field. Drexel has responded well from a poor defensive effort, as they are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing more than 90 points. The other big key here is how strong the road team has been in this series. The home team is a mere 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. On top of that, Towson is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games when they come in having won 2 of their last 3. Take Drexel! |
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01-17-18 | Fresno State v. San Diego State -7 | 77-73 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 47 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Late Night ATS Annihilator on San Diego State - I like the value here with the Aztecs at home in Wednesday's late night action against the Bulldogs. This is a big bounce back spot for San Diego State, as they come in off a tough 80-83 loss at Boise State over the weekend. Prior to that the Aztecs had won 3 straight all by double-digits. This is also a big revenge game for the SDSU, as they were upset by Fresno State on their home floor last year. The Bulldogs come in off a win over New Mexico at home, but failed to cover as a big favorite. It continued a trend of Fresno State failing to cash, as they are now 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. They are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games (Aztecs are 7-1 at home) and are 0-4 ATS off a SU win. Take San Diego State! |
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01-17-18 | IUPU Ft Wayne -5.5 v. Western Illinois | Top | 74-75 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on IUPU Ft Wayne - I love the value here with the Mastodons as a short road favorite against the Leathernecks. Western Illinois has started out 0-3 in the Summit and that's really not a surprise, as the Leathernecks were the consensus pick to finish in the basement of the league. All 3 losses have come by 12 or more points, including a 21-point loss at home to Nebraska-Omaha as a 3-point favorite. Ft Wayne is 2-2 and last time they beat Nebraska-Omaha at home, which is a good sign that they can make easy work of Western Illinois and cover this spread on the road. One thing the Mastodons do well is connect from outside. They come in averaging 10 made 3-pointers per game and that's worth noting as the Leathernecks are just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 vs teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers. Western Illinois is also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games when playing a team with a winning record. Take IUPU Ft Wayne! |
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01-17-18 | Tulsa v. Temple -6.5 | 58-59 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Temple - I like the value here with the Owls laying single digits at home against the Golden Hurricane. Both teams come in off heartbreaking losses. Tulsa lost at home by 3-points to No. 5 Wichita State, while Temple fell on a last second shot in OT at home to Memphis. My money here is on the Owls to have the easier time bouncing back from defeat. Tulsa put everything they had into that game against the Shockers and I just don't think they will have a lot left in the tank on the road. Note that their last two road games didn't end well, losing by 23 at Houston and by 9 at Memphis. On the flip side, the Owls likely didn't come out with the right intensity against the Tigers as they were fresh off an upset win at SMU as a 10-point dog. Golden Hurricane are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games overall and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games off a conference loss. Take Temple! |
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01-16-18 | Ole Miss +10 v. Texas A&M | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Ole Miss + I like the value here with the Rebels as a double-digit dog against the Aggies on Tuesday. Texas A&M was expected to be a Top 10 caliber a team this year and they were well on their way after a 11-1 start. Then things started to go unravel, as players were suspended and injuries piled up. The suspensions aren't a good sign that everyone is all in on the team and I just think this is way too many points for them to be laying. Texas A&M comes in having lost 5 straight. The most recent being a 13-point loss at Tennessee. They have also lost at home to LSU and Florida during this stretch. Ole Miss isn't a top tier team in the SEC, but are more than capable of keeping this game close. In fact, the Rebels are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 as a road dog of 10 or more, while the Aggies are a mere 4-13 ATS in their last 17 as a home favorite. Take Ole Miss! |
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01-16-18 | Georgia v. LSU -4 | Top | 61-60 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
5* NCAAB 'SEC' GAME OF THE MONTH  on LSU - I like the value here with the Tigers laying a short number at home against Georgia. LSU has been one of the big surprises early on this season out of the SEC, as not much was expected after last year's 10-21 campaign. Will Wade has done a tremendous job in year one turning the Tigers into a contender and as a result LSU has been a team constantly undervalued by the books. I think that's exactly the case here at home against the Bulldogs. Georgia is a good team, but aren't exactly playing well at the moment. They just lost by 7 at home to South Carolina as a 5-point favorite and the game before that they fell by 12 at Missouri. The road struggles have been a theme all season and a big reason why I got no problem laying this short number on LSU here. The Tigers are 7-3 at home and the Bulldogs are a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Georgia's offense has been struggling and have really relied on the defense to keep them a float. In that loss to the Gamecocks, they scored just 57 points and allowed only 64. That's worth bringing up, as the Bulldogs are a miserable 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games after a game where both teams scored fewer than 65 points. Take LSU! |
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01-15-18 | DePaul +10.5 v. Marquette | 52-70 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on DePaul + I like the value here with the Blue Demons catching double-digits on the road against the Golden Eagles. DePaul is just 1-4 in their last 5, but have been competitive during this stretch outside a blowout loss to Villanova. They only lost by 5 at Xavier, 9 at Georgia, won by 17 at St John's and lost by just 7 to Providence. Marquette is a decent team, but I think they are getting a little too much respect here against the Blue Demons. The Golden Eagles lost by 11 last time out at Butler and could struggle to get up for this game against an inferior opponent. Plus, Marquette has a big break looming, as they won't play again until 1/24. Blue Demons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record, while the Golden Eagles are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 90 or more points in their previous game. Take DePaul! |
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01-15-18 | Heat v. Bulls UNDER 207.5 | 111-119 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Bulls UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's afternoon showdown between the Heat and Bulls. Miami plays at one of the slower paces in the league. In fact, only the Spurs and Grizzlies play are playing at a slower tempo this season. Yesterday the Heat played a defensive battle against the Bucks, where they held Milwaukee to just 79 points and the game finished with a mere 176 points and the total was 203.5. With the Bucks on no rest and playing an afternoon game, I look for them to slow down the tempo even more against the Bulls, as they don't want to get in a transition game with Chicago. UNDER is 23-12 in the Heat's last 35 road games with a total of 200 to 209.5 and 20-7 in their last 27 off a win by 10-points or less. We also have a great system in play. UNDER is 32-8 (80%) going all the way back to 1996 when you have a total is greater than or equal to 200 with a home team off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! |
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01-15-18 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 211 | Top | 119-104 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets UNDER This might seem like a low total given the recent outcomes of both of these teams, but my money in this situation is on the UNDER. These two teams don't like each other and will be facing off for the third time this season. The more familiar two teams get with one another, the harder it becomes to score in the halfcourt. Another factor here is I don't think either side has a lot of gas left in the tank. Both teams will be playing their 3rd game in the span of just 4 days. On top of that, we have a rare early start time for a weekday game with the holiday and I think that only makes it harder on the players to come out and be effective offensively. UNDER is 20-9 in the Nets last 29 home games with a total of 210 to 219.5. It's also 10-3 in Brooklyn's last 14 off a SU loss and 7-1 in their last 8 home games. Take the UNDER! |
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01-14-18 | Pacers v. Suns +4.5 | 120-97 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Suns + I like the value here with Phoenix catching points at home against the Pacers. Indiana is primed for a letdown here off that huge home win over the Cavs, where they rallied from a 22-point deficit to pull out a 97-95 win. The Suns on the other hand are in a prime bounce back spot after a blowout loss at home to the Rockets on ESPN Friday. Phoenix is 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games off a double-digit loss at home. They are also 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a game where they failed to cover the spread and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss. Pacers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs the Western Conference. Take Phoenix! |
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01-14-18 | Northwestern v. Indiana -2.5 | 46-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Indiana - I like the value here with the Hoosiers at basically a pick'em at home against the Wildcats. We saw Indiana cover in a very similar spot last time out, defeating Penn State 74-70 as a 1.5-point home favorite. The Hoosiers are now 8-3 at home on the season and I think they should be a much bigger favorite here. Big reason they aren't is the fact that Northwestern comes in off a 23-point win at home over Minnesota as a mere 4-point favorite. This is also a Wildcats team a lot was expected of coming into the season, so the books will be quick to overvalue them off a performance like that. The Wildcats are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 off a SU win and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS last 5 at home and are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Indiana! |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 75 h 58 m | Show |
5* JAC/PIT Divisional Rd GAME OF THE YEAR on Jaguars + I love the value we are getting here with Jacksonville on Sunday against the Steelers. Say what you want about the Blake Bortles and the Jaguars offense, I think this team is built to have success against Pittsburgh. We saw that first hand in the regular-season, as the Jags went into Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers 30-9. Jacksonville's defense made life miserable for Ben Roethlisberger, intercepting him 5 times. That's what everyone talks about, but I think the key to their success in that game was their ability to keep the running game in check. Le'Veon Bell had just 47 rushing yards on 15 attempts and the Steelers as a team only rushed for 70 yards on 20 attempts, which is just 3.5 yards/carry. With the talent they have in the secondary, if they can have similar success against the run, I think Pittsburgh will have a hard time moving the ball. Let's also not forget Antonio Brown is coming off an injury that kept him out the final two weeks of the regular season. While there's reason to be optimistic that the Jaguars defense can have similar success against the Steelers offense, I think we could see Jacksonville's offense surprise some people with how well they play. Pittsburgh's defense was one of the best in the NFL early on, but it wasn't the same after they lost Ryan Shazier, especially when it came to stopping the run. If the Jags can have success on the ground, that should open up things for Bortles to make some plays through the air. With all that said, it's not out of the question the Jaguars win this game outright. Take Jacksonville! |
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01-13-18 | Pistons +1 v. Bulls | 105-107 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Pistons + I like the value here with the Pistons at basically a pick'em on the road against the Bulls. Chicago had a nice run, but have come back to reality here of late. The Bulls are just 2-5 SU in their last 7 and 2-4 ATS in their last 6. Detroit continues to be undervalued due to the injury to Reggie Jackson, but come in having covered 3 straight. The most recent being a 114-80 blowout win at Brooklyn as a mere 2-point favorite. I look for the Pistons to build off that impressive showing here and secure a comfortable road win over their division rivals. Take Chicago! |
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01-13-18 | Missouri v. Arkansas -4.5 | 63-65 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Prime Time HEAVY HITTER on Arkansas - I like the value here with the Razorbacks as a short home favorite against the Tigers. Last time out Arkansas was upset on their home court by LSU, as the Tigers embarrassed the Razorbacks by 21 points. That was Arkansas first home loss of the season and even with that lopsided defeat the Razorbacks are still outscoring teams on their home floor by nearly 20 ppg. Any time a team gets embarrassed the way Arkansas was in their last game, they almost always respond with one of their best efforts in their next game, especially at home. They also make a great team to back, as you often get them at a discount off the blowout loss. Missouri is a good team and playing better than expected without Porter Jr, but are just 4-3 on the road and I just don't see them matching the intensity of the Razorbacks in this one. Take Arkansas! |
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01-13-18 | Falcons -3 v. Eagles | 10-15 | Loss | -100 | 54 h 18 m | Show | |
4* ATL/PHI Divisional Round NO BRAINER on Falcons - My money is on the Falcons to go into Philadelphia and take care of business. I cashed on Atlanta last week when they went on the road and beat a very good Rams team as a 6-point dog. The Falcons didn't just sneak out a win, they dominated LA. I think we could see a similar type of lopsided affair here. The Eagles might have the edge here in terms of rest, but I just don't think that makes up for the loss of Carson Wentz. Philadelphia continues to talk about how much the trust Nick Foles and how he's more comfortable in the offense. That doesn't change the fact that he's an average backup QB, replacing a legit MVP caliber player. We have seen just how different the offense looks since Wentz has went down and I don't think the bye week is going to help fix that. The other big thing with Atlanta that gets overlooked is they played one of the toughest schedules in the league and on top of that had a huge target on their back from playing in the Super Bowl the year before. I think this is the team to beat in the NFC. You also have to factor in their edge in experience. This team knows what it takes to win this time of year and have proven they can do it. Take Atlanta! |
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01-13-18 | Hofstra -3.5 v. Drexel | 91-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Hofstra - I like the value here the Pride as a short road favorite against the Dragons. Hofstra comes in off a 76-73 win at Towson as a 5-point dog. Their previous road game they won 71-70 at Northeastern as a 5.5-point dog. The Pride are now 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs a team with a winning home record. On the flip side of this Drexel is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and are a dismal 1-10 ATS in their last 11 conference games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games vs a team with a road winning percentage of 60% or better. Take Hofstra! |
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01-13-18 | Towson +3 v. William & Mary | Top | 99-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Towson + I like the value here with the Tigers catching points on the road against the Tribe. I also think the books are tipping their hand in this one. William & Mary, who are only laying 3-points despite the fact that they come in having won 5 straight and are a perfect 7-0 at home. The Tigers have a history of stepping up their game against top level teams on the road. Towson is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games when matched up against top level teams who are outscoring opponents on averaging by 8 or more points/game. The road team is also a solid 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in the series. Take Towson! |
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01-13-18 | Baylor v. Iowa State +2.5 | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Iowa State + I like the value here with the Cyclones catching points at home against the Bears. Not a lot was expected of this Iowa State team after all they lost from last year's team, but they have been better than expected, despite the results not going their way. Last time out they went on the road and gave Kansas a massive scare before eventually losing 78-83. This is a team that has one of the biggest home court advantages in the country and Hilton should be rocking this afternoon. Baylor also hasn't been playing all that great in league play, as they are just 1-3 in the Big 12. They have lost both road games, including a 24-point loss at Texas Tech. Cyclones are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after 2 straight games where they scored 75 points or more, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games on Saturday and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Take Iowa State! |
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01-13-18 | TCU v. Oklahoma -6 | 97-102 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 39 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Oklahoma/TCU NO BRAINER on Oklahoma - I like the value here with the Sooners in Saturday's Big 12 showdown against TCU. Oklahoma has come out of nowhere to be a force behind freshman sensation Trae Young. These two teams already played once and the Sooners knocked off the Horned Frogs at TCU. Oklahoma took control of that game late after trailing early. I expect them to dominate from the start here at home, where they are a perfect 8-0 on the season, outscoring opponents by more than 21 ppg. This is also a tough spot for TCU. The Horned Frogs have found life a lot harder in conference play, as they are just 1-3 in the Big 12. Last time out they suffered a crushing double-overtime loss at Texas. I just don't think they will have enough gas in the tank to keep this one close. Take Oklahoma! |
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01-12-18 | Warriors v. Bucks +6.5 | 108-94 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT  on Bucks + I think we are getting great value here with Milwaukee as decently priced home dog against the Warriors on Friday. Golden State is a huge public team and the squares will be backing them big tonight with this being a nationally televised game on ESPN. That has this line a lot higher than it should be, especially with Steph Curry not expected to play for the Warriors. No disrespect to the Bucks, but I also think this is a game Golden State will have trouble matching the intensity of their opponents. The Warriors simply have two monster games on deck. They are at Toronto tomorrow, who is one of the hottest teams in the league and then have their much anticipated game at Cleveland on Monday. Milwaukee on the other hand is going to treat this as close to a playoff game as you will see in the regular season. Bucks have been a good team to back when they take a step up in competition. They are 8-2-1ATS in their last 11 vs a team with a winning record and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Milwaukee! |
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01-12-18 | Columbia +10.5 v. Princeton | 56-72 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Ivy League NO BRAINER Columbia + I like the value here with the Lions catching double-digits on the road against the Tigers. Columbia comes in with a miserable 3-10 record, but have won each of their last two games and are catching Princeton off a crushing 70-76 loss at Penn in their Ivy League opener. I look for the Lions to keep this one close, as they have in their last several trips to Princeton. Last year Columbia lost by just 2-points on the road agains the Tigers as a 14-point dog and are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 trips to Princeton. It's also worth noting the Tigers are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss and a mere 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games after playing 3 or more straight road games. Lions are 32-11 ATS in their last 43 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points and perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. Take Columbia! |
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01-12-18 | Quinnipiac +12.5 v. Rider | 60-78 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas ATS HEAVY HITTER on Quinnipiac + I like the value here with the Bobcats catching a big number against the Broncs. Quinnipiac comes in having failed to cover 3 straight and last time they played on the road they lost by 26 to St. Peter's. On the flip side of this, Rider has won and covered 3 straight. There's little doubt these recent results are playing into this big number here with the Bobcats. The Broncs are just 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games after 3 or more consecutive wins and a mere 15-29 in their last 44 off 3 straight conference wins. Quinnipiac on the other hand has been great in this spot, going 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 road games against at team with a winning home record. We also find a great system in play on the Bobcats. Road teams off a home win as a favorite where they didn't cover the spread are 44-16 (73%) ATS when playing on Friday over the last 5 seasons. Take Quinnipiac! |
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01-12-18 | St. Peter's +3 v. Canisius | Top | 58-70 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on St. Peter's I love the value here with the Peacocks catching points on the road against the Golden Griffins. St. Peter's has owned this series of late, winning 4 of the last 5 meetings, including their last trip to Canisius, as well as their meeting in the MAAC Tournament. Going back even further the Peacocks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games against the Golden Griffins. St. Peter's is also a team that has consistently played well on the road against quality opponents, as they are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record. They are also working on a 35-16 ATS run in their last 51 conference games and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 when coming off a game where they covered the spread. Not only did the Peacocks cover in their last game, they absolutely destroyed Quinnipiac at home 84-58. That has them in a very profitable situation over the last 5 seasons. Road underdogs off a win by 20 or more at least 15 games into the season are 36-9 (80%) ATS if the game is between two average teams with a +/- 3.5 ppg differential. Take St. Peter's! |
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01-11-18 | San Diego +1.5 v. Pacific | Top | 70-74 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *WCC* GAME OF THE MONTH on San Diego + I like the value here with the Toreros at basically a pick'em on the road against the Tigers. San Diego comes in at 12-4, but are fresh off a 63-70 loss at St Mary's, which snapped a 4-game winning streak. I look for the Toreros to bounce back in a big way here against a Pacific team that isn't very good. The Tigers are just 7-10 overall and are a mere 2-6 in their last 8. More than anything, Pacific should not be favored here against San Diego. You won't find me complaining. The Toreros are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games with an impressive 13-2 ATS mark in their last 15 as a road underdog. Pacific won last time out, which is also a plus, as the Tigers are a mere 2-12 in their last 14 off a win and 1-9 ATS when that win was at home. Take San Diego! |
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01-11-18 | Drexel +4 v. Delaware | 66-72 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Drexel + I like the value here with the Dragons catching points on the road against the Blue Hens. Drexel is simply undervalued because their record doesn't stack up with Delaware, but I view these two teams as one in the same. If anything, I would argue the Blue Hens are the lesser of the two teams. Either way, the play here is with the Dragons, who I'm confident will win this game outright. Delaware is not a good home team. They are just 4-4 on their home floor, where they are getting outscored on the season. The Blue Hens are also just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games when they come into a game having won 5 or 6 of their last 7. Also a great spot to back the Dragons off their blowout loss to William & Mary, as they are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 off a loss by 20 or more points. Take Drexel! |
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01-11-18 | Hofstra +5.5 v. Towson | 76-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Small Conf ATS NO-BRAINER on Hofstra + I like the value here with the Pride catching points on the road agains the Tigers. Towson has the better overall record, but I don't think there's much that separates these two teams. Both are 2-2 in league play and if anything the Pride have played the tougher schedule to this point. My numbers suggest this should be closer to a pick'em, making this an easy play for me on Hofstra. Note that the Pride are an impressive 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning record and 14-3 in their last 17 as a road dog, including a perfect 7-0 ATS mark in their last 7 as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Take Hofstra! |
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01-11-18 | Manhattan +5 v. Fairfield | Top | 59-53 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *MAAC* GAME OF THE MONTH on Manhattan + I like the value here with the Jaspers catching points against the Stags. Manhattan has already beat Fairfield once this season. The Jaspers held the Stags to just 35% from the field, while they connected on 59% of their shots. There's simply no reason that Manhattan should be this big of a dog here. In fact, my numbers suggest this should be closer to a pick'em. Fairfield is only 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games following 3 or more consecutive road games and a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 following a loss. Jaspers on the other hand are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning home record. We also have a great system in play backing a fade of the Stags. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a good free throw shooting team (69-73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are a mere 16-43 (27%) ATS since 1997. Take Manhattan! |
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01-11-18 | Celtics v. 76ers +2 | 114-103 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
3* NBA Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on Sixers + I like the value here with the 76ers in Thursday's contest against the Celtics in London. Boston is the better team, but with this game being played overseas, I think it's all about motivation. The Celtics own the best record in the east with a 3-game lead over the Raptors and 5.5-game lead over the Cavs. This is a game they can afford to lose. I just don't think they will be 100% invested in this contest, while I expect Philadelphia to come out looking to make a statement, as this is one of those 'measuring stick' games, where they see how they stack up against one of the elite teams. It's also a big revenge game for the 76ers, who have already lost twice to Boston, though they are competitive in each game. Philadelphia has been rolling of late and are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 when they come in having covered the number in 3 or more games. They are also 15-5 ATS in their last 20 after 2 or more consecutive wins and 24-9 in their last 33 when playing a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the 76ers! |
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01-10-18 | Temple v. SMU -9.5 | 66-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB 'Late Night' BAILOUT BLOWOUT  on SMU - This is likely going to seem like a big number to back SMU at home with against Temple. The Owls got off to a decent start, racking up non-conference wins over the likes of South Carolina, Wisconsin and St Joseph's. However, they come in at just 7-8 overall and have lost 5 straight. The most recent being a 21-point loss at UCF as a mere 5-point dog. I actually think there's some value here with SMU, who is a completely different team at home than on the road. The Mustangs lost their last two, fallowing 70-73 at Tulane as a 7.5-point favorite and 56-76 at Cincinnati as a 7.5-point dog. That should have SMU 100% locked in for this game and I look for them to lay in on the Owls. The Mustangs are 11-0 at home, where they are outscoring their opponents by 23.5 ppg, as they are shooting 50.1% from the field and holding their opponents to just 36.8% from the field at home. Mustangs are also 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 home games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take SMU! |
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01-10-18 | Wyoming v. New Mexico -2 | 66-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB 'Situational' ATS ANNIHILATOR on New Mexico - I like the value here with the Lobos laying a short number at home against the Cowboys. All we basically need here is for New Mexico to win the game outright. The Lobos should have no problem doing just that, as they are 7-3 at home, outscoring their opponents by 17.5 ppg. Wyoming on the other hand is just 3-4 on the road. Last time out the Lobos crushed laid it on San Jose State, beating the Spartans 80-47 as a 10-point favorite. New Mexico has responded well off a blowout win, as they are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 off a victory by 30 or more points. We also have a great system in play backing a fade of the Cowboys. Teams off a conference home win (Wyoming) going up against a team that won by 30+ in a conference game are 25-57 (30%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take New Mexico! |
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01-10-18 | Magic +11 v. Bucks | 103-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
4* NBA 'Magic/Bucks' VEGAS INSIDER on Magic + I like the value here with Orlando catching double-digits on the road Wednesday at Milwaukee. The public wants nothing to do with this Magic team right now. Orlando is a mere 1-14 SU in their last 15 and a pathetic 3-14 ATS in their last 17. Not to mention they are playing on no rest after a game last night in Dallas, which they lost 99-114 as a 7.5-point dog. The books had no choice but to inflate this line on the Bucks and I just can't pass up the value here, especially given that Milwaukee hasn't been playing all that great of late and are in a major lookahead spot with a big game at home against the defending champs (Warriors) on deck this Friday. I think the Bucks go through the motions here and do just enough to get the win. Milwaukee is just 4-10-3 in their last 17 games against a team from the east and 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Bucks are also just 17-40 in their last 57 when laying double-digits. Take Orlando! |
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01-09-18 | Wisconsin +3 v. Nebraska | 59-63 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Wisconsin + I like the value here with the Badgers catching points on the road against the Cornhuskers. Nebraska is getting a lot of respect for keeping it closer than expected last time out against Purdue, despite losing the game by 12-points. That was simply a bad line by the books, as they continue to overvalue the Boilermakers. The Cornhuskers have now covered the spread in 6 straight games where a line has been posted and I believe we are seeing this line inflated as a result. There's no arguing that this isn't the same caliber a Badgers team as previous seasons, but it's not a bottom feeder either. The loss at Rutgers in their last game looks bad on paper, but that's a much improved Scarlet Knights team and I don't think Wisconsin went into that game with the right mindset. That won't be the problem here, as I expect a big time effort and outright win by the Badgers tonight. Take Wisconsin! |
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01-09-18 | Blazers +8.5 v. Thunder | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Blazers + I like the value we are getting here with Portland as a near double-digit dog against the Thunder. The public won't want anything to do with the Blazers in this one, as star point guard Damian Lillard is out with a calf injury. Most will just assume Portland has no chance of keeping close without Lillard. What they will overlook is how his absence takes away some of the focus and motivation for OKC, who were already going to have a tough time getting up for this game with tomorrow's big showdown at Minnesota on ESPN. Don't be surprised if the Thunder just go through the motions here and end up finding themselves sin a much closer game than expected. Portland has won 2 straight, both at home, which is important to note, as they are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games after 2 or more home wins under head coach Stotts. Blazers are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games with a total of 200 to 209.5, while the Thunder are a mere 5-17 ATS in their last 22 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Portland! |
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01-08-18 | Alabama v. Georgia +5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 146 h 31 m | Show |
5* Alabama/Georgia CFB Champ NO LIMIT Top Play on Georgia + I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the Bulldogs in Monday's national championship game. Because Alabama has been here before and are coming off the more dominant performance in the semifinals, the perception is that they are the better team and the books are going to inflate this line, knowing the public will be on the Crimson Tide. I'm not so sure that Georgia isn't the better team. If anything, this line should be closer to a pick'em than a touchdown, which makes this an easy play for me. Don't be fooled by Georgia's struggles defensively against Oklahoma. I don't know that there's a defense in the country that could slow down Baker Mayfield and that Sooners attack. The Bulldogs made some great adjustments at the half and should have a much easier time shutting down Alabama's offense. The Crimson Tide only had 261 total yards and 16 first down the entire game against Clemson and benefited big time by jumping out to a 10-point lead. This Alabama offense simply isn't that good. I know the Crimson Tide defense looked like a different animal against Clemson, but let's not forget they had more than a month to prepare for the Tigers and the past two years have looked great defensively in the semifinals and then struggled in the title game. I think the 1-2 punch of Georgia's rushing attack will be the difference, as I think the Bulldogs win this one outright. Take Georgia! |
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01-08-18 | Alabama v. Georgia OVER 44 | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 69 h 57 m | Show | |
4* Alabama/Georgia Total NO BRAINER on Georgia OVER The public perception here is that this is going to be a very low-scoring national championship game, as we have two teams that want to run the football and are considered to be elite on the defensive side of the ball. What gets overlooked is the talent that both of these two teams have on the offensive side of the ball and that 44 points is an extremely low total for today's college game. Another thing that I think people fall into a trap with is how great these teams look defensively in the semifinals and forget that they have had over a month to prepare for those opponents. People were saying the same thing the last two years with Alabama and Clemson and both of those turned into shootouts. In fact, each of the first 3 title games since the playoffs was introduced has seen at least 62 points. All we need to get a win here is 45. That's less than 2 touchdowns a quarter. Take the OVER! |
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01-08-18 | Cavs +1 v. Wolves | 99-127 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR  on Cavs I like the value here with Cleveland as a road dog against the Wolves on Monday. No question that Minnesota has been playing much better of late, but I think the Cavs are about to go off here now that Isaiah Thomas is healthy an in the starting lineup. Thomas gives Cleveland another prolific scorer who can take over games when James isn't on the floor, which should allow him to rest a little more and be even that much moor effective when he does play. In the first two games with Thomas, Cleveland has scored 127 and 131 points, while shooting over 50% from the field in both games. I just think the Cavs have too much fire-power for the Timberwolves, who have to be a bit fatigued here playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Take Cleveland! |
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01-07-18 | Hawks v. Lakers -3 | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
3* NBA Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Lakers - I like the value here with Los Angeles as a short home favorite agains the Hawks on Sunday. It's been a dreadful run here for the Lakers, but a big reason for the struggles was some key guys being out with injuries. While they may be without Larry Nance (questionable), they are pretty much at full strength and I expect a huge effort here from the Lakers. Atlanta is the ideal team for LA to get back on track against. The Hawks are arguably the least talented team in the league and have gone a miserable 3-17 on the road this season, where they are losing by an average of 6.6 ppg. Last time out they managed to score just 89 points in a blowout loss to the Blazers and I don't see things getting any better on this west coast trip. Take Los Angeles! |
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01-07-18 | Panthers +7 v. Saints | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 5 m | Show |
5* CAR/NO 'Wild Card' GAME OF THE YEAR on Panthers + I love the value we are getting here with Carolina as a touchdown dog against the Saints in Sunday's NFC Wild Card matchup. Sure, New Orleans won both regular season meetings between these two NFC South rivals, but that only makes me like the Panthers more. You hear it all the time. It's extremely hard to beat the same team 3 straight times in the NFL, especially in the same season. Big key here is we just need the Panthers to keep in within a touchdown. Each of the first two meetings the Saints were able to get their running game going, rushing 149 yards in Carolina in Week 3 and 148 at NO in Week 13. Most will just assume that it's going to be the same old story in the playoffs, but I think the more you see a team the easier they become to stop and let's not forget that the Panthers finished the year 3rd in the league against the run, giving up just 88.1 ypg. As for Carolina's offense, they will have a big time player maker on the field that didn't play in either of the first two games against the Saints. That's star tight end Greg Olsen, who when healthy has been Cam Newton's favorite target. Last year he led the team with 80 receptions for 1,073 yards. I also think Newton has shown in the past that he can step up and deliver on the big stage and this is a Carolina team that went 7-2 over their finale 9 games. It's also worth pointing out that the road team is 23-10 ATS in their last 33 meetings and the underdog has cashed in 6 of the last 7 meetings. Panthers are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played in January. Take Carolina! |
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01-07-18 | Quinnipiac +8 v. St. Peter's | 58-84 | Loss | -111 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situationa ATS NO BRAINER  on Quinnipiac + I like the value here with the Bobcats catching a big number on the road against the Peacocks. Quinnipiac had started out 2-0 in league play before they went ice cold in a 74-82 loss at home to Canisius on Friday. The Bobcats shot just 35.1% from the field and had 15 turnovers, while only forcing 5. The fact that they only lost by 8 is pretty impressive. I think it has them undervalued here and wouldn't be shocked if Quinnipiac won this game outright. St Peter's is just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games after going over the total in 2 straight games, while the Bobcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games when listed as a dog of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Quinnipiac! |
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01-07-18 | Fairfield +7.5 v. Iona | Top | 65-84 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Fairfield + I like the value here with the Stags catching a big number on the road against the Gaels. I just don't see a whole lot that separates these two teams. Iona is simply getting too much respect here playing at home and the fact that the Stags are coming off an ugly 77-96 loss at Rider. The Gaels are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 home games overall and a mere 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home conference games. Iona is also just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 following a SU win and are just 1-5 ATS in their lat 6 games played on Sunday. Stags are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 90 or more points in their last game and 23-10 ATS in their last 33 as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points.  Take Fairfield! |
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01-06-18 | Long Beach State +6.5 v. Cal-Irvine | 73-86 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Long Beach State + I like the value here with the 49ers catching points on the road against the Anteaters. These two teams have played a similar strength of schedule, yet Long Beach State is sitting at 7-10 and UC-Irvine is just 5-12. The 49ers are also coming into this game having won 2 straight. The most recent an upset 89-81 win over Hawaii. The Anteaters have just 1 win in their last 8 games and simply should not be this big of a favorite against any team right now. Even if they find a way to win this game, chances are it's by fewer than 7 points. Take Long Beach State! |
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01-06-18 | UC Riverside +12 v. UC-Santa Barbara | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Riverside + I like the value here with the Highlanders catching double-digits on the road against the Gauchos. While Santa Barbara is the more talented team, Riverside played the tougher non-conference schedule and are simply way undervalued coming into league play. We saw that first hand in their last game, as the Highlanders lost by a final of 65-68 as a 7.5-point underdog. Exact opposite for the Gauchos, who were a 4.5-point favorite over Cal Poly and lost outright. Take UC Riverside! |
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01-06-18 | Falcons +6 v. Rams | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show | |
4* ATL/LAR 'Wild Card' NO BRAINER on Falcons + I like the value here with the Falcons catching almost a touchdown on the road against the Rams. Atlanta didn't have the success in the regular season that most were expecting, but none of that matters now. What gets overlooked is just how hard it is for the team that lost the previous year's Super Bowl to simply get back in the postseason. This team can finally relax and I wouldn't be the least big surprised to see them win this game outright. Not to take anything away from the Rams and what they were able to accomplish this season, but I have some big concerns with their ability to carry it over into the playoffs. One of the biggest advantages that the Falcons have in this matchup is experience. Simply put, I don't trust Goff to perform at the level needed for the Rams to win here via a blowout. It's also worth noting that there's something about the NFC West that has brought out some of the best in the Falcons. Atlanta is a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons when facing a team from this division and have won these contests by an average of 15.3 ppg. LA is also just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Atlanta! |
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01-06-18 | Celtics v. Nets UNDER 208.5 | 87-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Nets UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA action that has the Celtics visiting the Nets. Boston comes in having won 5 straight and they can credit their defense for their most recent run. The Celtics are allowing just 93.2 ppg over this run and are holding opponents to just 37.5% shooting during this stretch. On Wednesday they held the Cavs to just 88 points and last night shut down another elite offense, as they held the Timberwolves to just 84 points. I see no reason for Boston to take their foot off the gas defensively against the Nets, but there's a good chance the offense struggles to get going in this one. UNDER is 21-8 in the Celtics last 29 after a game where they held their opponent to 90 or fewer points and 25-14 in their last 39 when listed as a road favorite. Take the UNDER! |
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01-06-18 | Dartmouth +11 v. Harvard | Top | 51-61 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
5* NCAAB 'Ivy League' GAME OF THE MONTH on Dartmouth + I love the value here with the Big Green catching double-digits here against the Crimson. Dartmouth has gone a miserable 1-6 in road games so far this season, but that's playing into this line. Their losses on the road have actually come by fewer than 10 ppg. Harvard is also just 5-9 on the season and while they are 3-1 at home, their wins at home have come by just around 4 ppg. The Big Green have historically been a good team to back when they come in having not exactly played well. Dartmouth is 12-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they come in having won just 1 or 2 of their last 7 games. They are also a dominant 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after a SU loss. It's also worth pointing out that the Big Green have covered 5 of their last 7 trips to Harvard and the road team is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 overall. Take Dartmouth! |
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01-05-18 | St. Peter's +7 v. Iona | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas ATS NO BRAINER on St. Peter's I like the value here with the Peacocks as a decently priced road dog against the Gaels. St. Peter's comes in off an impressive 77-64 home win over Monmouth as a 2-point dog, while Iona enters off a 78-85 loss at Canisius as a 1-point favorite. The Peacocks are the much better defensive team, as they come in allowing just 67.2 ppg, while the Gaels are allowing 77.2 ppg. That's going to make it difficult on Iona just to win, let along win here by near double-digits. Gaels are just 2-13 ATS in their last 15 home games after playing 2 straight as a road favorite, while the Peacocks are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off a conference win by 10 or more points. Take St. Peter's! |
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01-05-18 | Wolves +4.5 v. Celtics | 84-91 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Wolves + I like the value here with Minnesota as a small road dog against the Celtics on Friday. The Timberwolves come in off a 97-98 loss at Brooklyn, but have been playing some of they best basketball here of late. Minnesota is 7-2 over their last 9 and are going to be motivated here off that upset loss to the Nets. As for the Celtics, they have won 4 straight and are fresh off a 102-88 win over the Cavs. That game against Cleveland was one they were looking forward to in a big way and I think they have a hard time showing up with that same intensity here against the Timberwolves. Look for Minnesota to want it more tonight. T-Wolves head coach Tom Thibodeau has got his team to thrive in this spot, as he's 38-19 ATS in the last 57 road games he's coached on Friday night. Celtics on the other hand are a mere 10-23 ATS in their last 33 home games after playing 2 straight at home under Brad Stevens. Take Minnesota! |
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01-05-18 | Fairfield +6.5 v. Rider | Top | 77-96 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Fairfield + I like the value here with the Stags catching points on the road against the Broncs. Fairfield is coming off a crushing 58-61 loss at Manhattan. The Stags couldn't have played much worse and still almost won the game. Fairfield shot just 35% from the field, while Manhattan shot 49%. I expect a much better showing here offensively from the Stags against a Broncs defense that has allowed 76+ in each of their first two conference games. Fairfield has covered 14 of the last 17 meetings in the series, including 3 of the last 4. They are also a perfect 4-0 SU in the last 4 meetings, including a 2-0 SU mark in their last 2 at Rider. The Broncs are also just 6-19 ATS in their last 25 home games after a road game where both teams scored 75+ and  just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games after 3 or more straight games on the road. Take Fairfield! |
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01-04-18 | Santa Clara +4.5 v. Loyola Marymount | 65-49 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Santa Clara + I like the value here with the Broncos as a short road dog against the Lions. Santa Clara was embarrassed in their last game, losing 101-52 at Gonzaga. No team likes to get beat like that and my money is on the Broncos coming out extremely motivated and not only covering the spread but beating Loyola Marymount outright. The Lions come in having lost 4 straight and simply shouldn't be this big a favorite against the Broncos in this spot. Loyola is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games after playing 2 straight road games, while the Broncos are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after a game with 9 or less assists. Take Santa Clara! |
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01-04-18 | Western Carolina +5 v. Chattanooga | 75-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Western Carolina + I like the value here with the Catamounts catching a decent number here on the road against the Mocs. These two teams come in with similar records, but Western Carolina has played the much tougher schedule and my numbers suggest this should be closer to a pick'em. The Mocs are just 4-16 ATS in their last 20 conference games and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games after scoring 65 or fewer points in 2 straight games. We also have a great system in play backing a fade of Chattanooga. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UT-CHATTANOOGA) - poor defensive team (45-47.5%) against a horrible defensive team (47.5% or worse), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-17.5 TO's) are 5-25 (17%) ATS since 1997. Take Western Carolina! |
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01-03-18 | UC Riverside +8 v. CS-Fullerton | Top | 65-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *Big West* GAME OF THE MONTH on Riverside + I love the value here with the Highlanders as a near double-digit dog on the road against the Titans. In the last 8 meetings in the series UC-Riverside has won 5 times and all 3 losses have come by fewer than the spread listed here. In fact, the Highlanders are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 meetings at UC Fullerton, as the road team is 23-6 ATS in the last 29 meetings overall. In last year's meeting at the Titans Riverside was a 7.5-point dog and won outright 71-63. I see no reason why not to expect a close game here and wouldn't be shocked at all if the Highlanders won this game outright. Take UC Riverside! |
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01-03-18 | Pelicans v. Jazz UNDER 211 | 108-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Jazz UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's total between the Jazz and Pelicans. Utah comes in off a 104-101 win against the Cavs at home and will be looking to build on that after a really tough stretch. The Jazz are only giving up 95.5 ppg at home this season, as they have held their opponents to just 43.2% shooting from the floor at home. New Orleans isn't exactly playing well, as they just lost two straight at home against the Knicks and Mavs. I think we are get a big time effort from both sides defensively here and each side should have some fresh legs having had the lsat 3 days off. UNDER is 18-7 in the Pelicans last 25 road games against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 45-19 in the Jazz last 64 off a close home win by 3 points or less and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 home games when they come in having lost 3 of their last 4. Take the UNDER! |
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01-03-18 | Raptors v. Bulls OVER 215.5 | 124-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Bulls OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Wednesday's NBA action that has the Raptors visiting the Bulls. Chicago has been a completely different team here over the last few weeks. They have been a much more explosive offensive team, as they have really spaced the floor well and have a number of guys shooting well from the outside. The Bulls comes in averaging 111.2 ppg over their last 5. While the offense has been great, the defense is still a work in progress, as they are giving up 108 ppg during this same stretch. Toronto is one of the more explosive teams in the league, as they average 111.2 ppg on the season. I think both sides have a great shot at eclipsing 110, which should have this flying over the mark set by the books. We also have a great system in play. The OVER is 41-16 (72%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total off 200 or more in a game that involves a bad team (Winning % 25% - 40%) off an upset loss as a home favorite and are playing a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! |
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01-02-18 | Spurs v. Knicks OVER 198.5 | 100-91 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's NBA total featuring the Spurs and Knicks. I think we are seeing a much lower total than what we should based on the fact that San Antonio is coming off a game where they scored just 79 points. Prior to that the Spurs had scored 108 or more in 3 straight games and were fresh off a 119 point outburst in New York. OVER is also 24-8 in the Spurs last 32 games following a SU loss and 6-1-1 in the Knicks last 8 vs a team with a winning record and 5-1 in their last 6 following a SU win. Take the OVER! |
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01-02-18 | Delaware +10.5 v. College of Charleston | 78-93 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER on Delaware + I like the value here with the Blue Hens catching double-digits on the road against Charleston. Delaware comes in having won 4 straight and last time out won outright at UNC-Wilmington as a underdog. Charleston is simply overvalued here playing at home and coming in having won 9 of their last 10. Note that we have a lot total here of 129, which only adds more value to the points. Charleston is also a mere 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games with a total of 129.5 or less and just 18-34 ATS in their last 52 home games when they come in having won 4 of their last 5. Take Delaware! |
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01-02-18 | William & Mary +3 v. James Madison | 84-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on William & Mary + I like the value here with the Tribe catching points on the road against James Madison. William & Mary comes in a t8-4 and are 1-0 in conference play, while the Dukes are just 4-10 on the season and lost at home in their conference opener to Northeastern. Last time out the Tribe beat Hofstra 90-87 behind great 3-point shooting and are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a game where they combined for 155 or more points and 6-0 ATS last 7 after a game where they shot 50% or better from behind the 3-point line. We also have a great system in play backing a fade of the Dukes. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 after a game where they allowed 80 or more points and playing a team that has allowed 80+ in at least 2 straight games are a mere 18-44 (29%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take William & Mary! |
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01-01-18 | Alabama -2.5 v. Clemson | Top | 24-6 | Win | 100 | 298 h 30 m | Show |
5* New Year's Day GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama - I think we are getting some outstanding value here with the Crimson Tide laying less than a field goal, as I not only think Alabama wins this game, but does so convincingly. This is a massive revenge spot for the Crimson Tide, who lost to the Tigers in last year's championship game. A couple big differences this time around. Unlike the last two years when these two teams played in the title game, this time they meet in the semifinals. Instead of having just 1 week to prepare for Clemson, Alabama now has had a month to put together a game plan for the Tigers. The other big difference is Clemson no longer has Deshaun Watson at quarterback. No disrespect to Kelly Bryant, who has a better year than most expected, but he's no where close to being the same player as Watson and with how good this Alabama defense is against the run, he's got to play exceptional for them to win. There's plenty of talk about Clemson and their dominant defensive front, but they have been loaded on that side of the ball each of the last two years and Alabama has had no problem moving the ball on them. Last year the Tide rushed for 221 yards on 34 attempts (6.5 yards/carry) and put up 45 on them the year before. I just don't think the Tigers can keep pace offensively without Watson behind center. Take Alabama! |
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01-01-18 | Quinnipiac +5.5 v. Siena | 71-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Quinnipiac + I like the value here with the Bobcats catching points on the road against the Saints. Quinnipiac comes in off an impressive 78-76 win at home over Monmouth as a 6.5-point dog and have now covered 4 straight games where a line has been posted. Siena on the other hand comes in off a road loss at Marist as a 3-point favorite and are now just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 lined games.  The Saints are also just 2-5 SU in their last 7 games and this puts them in a great fade spot, as they are 0-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons when they come into a contest having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Siena is also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs a team with a losing record, while the Bobcats are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 after covering last time out. Take Quinnipiac! |
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01-01-18 | Central Florida +10 v. Auburn | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 290 h 10 m | Show | |
4* Peach Bowl No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Central Florida + I like the value here with UCF catching double-digits against Auburn. The Knights finished the regular season with a perfect 12-0 record and improved to 13-0 with a win over Memphis in the AAC title game. I expect them to be extremely motivated here to finish this off with one last week to get to 14-0 against a SEC team. A big key here is that while UCF head coach Scott Frost has accepted the job at Nebraska, he's showing his commitment to his players by sticking with the team through the bowl game. I expect his players to return the favor and give it their all in this one. Auburn is hands down the better team, but you can't just look at that when it comes to bowl season. You have to factor in motivation and I just don't see how the Tigers are going to get up for this contest. Auburn went on a remarkable run to end the season, which included wins over Georgia and Alabama in their final 3 games to make the SEC title game. The Tigers couldn't finish off the job, losing in a rematch to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, which was a play-in for the playoffs. No disrespect to UCF or the Peach Bowl, but this doesn't come close to comparing to being in the playoffs and I just don't see Auburn being locked in for this one. Take Central Florida! |
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01-01-18 | South Carolina v. Michigan -8 | 26-19 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
4* Outback Bowl ATS ANNIHILATOR  on Michigan - I like the value here with the Wolverines laying single digits against the Gamecocks in Monday's Outback Bowl. On paper these two teams look very similar, as both are a bit limited offensively and rely heavily on their defense. With that said, I think Michigan is hands down the better side on both sides of the ball, plus they have a big edge here in coaching with Jim Harbaugh. The biggest thing here for me is I just don't think the Gamecocks are going to be able to score enough to keep this one competitive. Michigan finished the year 3rd in the country, allowing just 268.1 ypg and were great against both the run and the pass. South Carolina had just the 109th ranked offense in the country and when they went up against top notch defense they struggled to produce. The Gamecocks scored just 10 points in their two matchups against Georgia and Clemson, two very similar teams in terms of talent on the defensive side of the ball. Take Michigan! |
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12-31-17 | Grizzlies v. Kings UNDER 196 | Top | 114-96 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Kings/Grizzlies UNDER The simple fact that the Grizzlies just played in a game last night with Golden State that saw 269 combined points and have a total less than 200 tonight says it all. Memphis couldn't have played any better in that game, as they laid it all on the line against the defending champs. They shot 52% from the field and were a ridiculous 15 of 21 (71%) from long distance. The pace of the game was frantic and I just don't see how they come out with any energy tonight, especially against one of the league's bottom feeders in the Kings. Keep in mind that even with the massive outburst last night, the Grizzlies are still averaging a mere 98.3 ppg this season. They simply let the Warriors dictate the tempo. Memphis on the season ranks dead last in the NBA in pace. The Kings love to play at a slow tempo as well, as they are right behind the Grizzlies at 29th in pace. This has all the makings of a low-scoring game. Take the UNDER! |
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12-31-17 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | 10-22 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 31 m | Show | |
4* NFL Vegas ATS NO BRAINER on Carolina + I like the value here with the Panthers catching over a field goal against the Falcons in Week 17. So much attention has been paid to the Eagles, Rams, Saints and Vikings in the NFC that the Panthers are somehow flying under the radar. Carolina got off to a bit of a slow start (just 4-3 in their first 7)  as Cam Newton was still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, but this team has taken off since he's returned to 100% healthy. The Panthers come in having won 3 straight and 7 of their last 8, which includes a win over these Falcons and a win over the Vikings and Packers (Rodgers return game). Atlanta needs to win this game to ensure a spot in the postseason, but you can't get caught up in teams in a "must-win" spot. Atlanta's offense got going in the middle portion of their schedule, but have really struggled here of late. The Falcons are only averaging 16.5 ppg over their last 4 games and now go up against one of the best defenses in the league. Carolina ranks 6th against the run (89.9 ypg) and are only giving up 208 ypg through the air on the road. Panthers have thrived in the role of a road dog, as they are 77-54 ATS in their last 131 games when getting points away from home. They are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games overall. Take Carolina! |
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12-31-17 | 49ers v. Rams -1.5 | 34-13 | Loss | -107 | 105 h 30 m | Show | |
3* NFL No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rams - I know the Rams aren't going to be playing a lot of their starters in this game, but I still like them to find a way to win at home against the 49ers. It's hard to believe that a team that started 0-9 is now the talk of the NFL, but with the play of Jimmy Garoppolo that's the case with San Francisco. I think it has the 49ers getting a little too much respect here in a division road game. I'm not buying any talk of the Rams just laying down because there starters aren't playing. The guys that are playing are going to give it all they got. I also think the fact that LA isn't playing their starters take away some of the edge here for the 49ers, who were likely looking forward to using this game as a measuring stick going into next year. I think it could have San Francisco coming out flat and it will be hard for them to cover this spread if they don't take Los Angeles seriously. 49ers are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after giving up 30+ points in their previous game. San Francisco is also just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against teams averaging 5.65 yards/play. Keep in mind that LA will still be running the same schemes offensively, even though the starters won't be playing much if at all. Take Los Angeles! |
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12-31-17 | Bengals +10 v. Ravens | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 105 h 30 m | Show |
5* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH on Bengals + I love the value here with Cincinnati catching double-digits against the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore is getting way too much respect here due to the fact that they have gone 5-1 in their last 6 games and are the only team with something to play for. The thing is, Baltimore's recent run has come against a very soft schedule, as the 5 wins are against the Packers (without Rodgers), Texans, Lions, Browns and Colts. While the Bengals come in off a 26-17 win over the Lions, I still think they are undervalued due to their previous two games, where they lost 7-33 at home to the Bears and 7-34 at Minnesota. This team rallied and played one of it's best games last week in what most expected to be the final home game for head coach Marvin Lewis. I expect another big effort here in what will likely be Lewis' last game at the helm of the Bengals. Baltimore's also not the type of team that should be laying double-digits. While the offense has been better of late, they are still extremely limited on that side of the ball. You also have to factor in the increase in production has come from the soft schedule. This Bengals defense did an outstanding job against the Ravens defense earlier in the year, limiting them to just 268 yards and 20 points, despite the offense turning it over 5 times. I think they do enough here to keep this close and maybe even win the game outright. Cincinnati is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games in December and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Ravens are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record and are 0-4 ATS in this spot when playing at home. Take Cincinnati! |
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12-31-17 | Bills v. Dolphins +3 | 22-16 | Loss | -115 | 104 h 14 m | Show | |
4* NFL Afternoon VEGAS INSIDER on Dolphins + The public is going to back Buffalo here for the simple fact that the Bills are still in the playoff hunt and Miami is out of it. I don't think that's going to be the case at all. The last thing any team wants to do is let one of their division rivals clinch a playoff spot by beating them, especially on their home field. Now I know the Bills need some other things to happen beside winning this game to get in, but I'm confident we are going to get a big time effort from the Dolphins in this spot. Keep in mind it was a 16-24 loss at Buffalo in Week 15 that put an end to Miami's playoff hopes. Miami's defense played well in that game against the Bills a few weeks back, limiting them to just 328 yards. They were especially good at shutting down Buffalo's high-powered rushing attack, as the Bills had just 116 yards on 30 attempts. The Dolphins have been a good bet at home against good teams, as they are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs a team with a winning road record. Buffalo on the other hand is just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 division games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Miami! |
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12-31-17 | Redskins v. Giants +3.5 | 10-18 | Win | 100 | 101 h 59 m | Show | |
3* NFL Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Giants + I like the value here with New York catching points at home against the Redskins in Week 17. The Giants come in off an embarrassing loss last week, where they were shutout by the Cardinals in a  24-0 defeat. I think we see a different NY team take the field in what will be their home finale. There's plenty of uncertainty with who is going to still be on the team next year and I think the players come together and do whatever it takes to get the win on Sunday. I know the Giants are going to be down to the 3rd stringers at wide receiver, but this Redskins secondary has been atrocious on the road this season. Washington is giving up an average 259 yards/game and 7.9 yards/pass attempt away from home. They also give up 4.9 yards/carry and 150 yards/game on the ground. No surprise they have allowed 28.4 ppg on the road this season. While the offense struggled in last week's game against Arizona, the defense played played really well. New York held the Cardinals to just 293 total yards and forced 3 turnovers. I think they can make things tuff here for Kirk Cousins and the Redskins offense. Note that Cousins has had trouble in his career against this Giants defense. Lastly, I question how motivated Washington is really going to be for this game. It was clearly important to them to get a win in their home finale last week, but there's absolutely nothing to play for. A win over the Giants isn't going to do anything and they already beat this team once this season. I could see the players being more interested in getting this game over with and focusing on their New Year's plans. Take New York! |
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12-31-17 | Iona -1.5 v. Canisius | 78-85 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas HEAVY HITTER on Iona - I like the value here with the Gaels laying a short number on the road against the Golden Griffins. Iona comes in having won 6 of their last 8 with the only two losses coming on the road against St. John's and Rhode Island as double-digit dogs. They are simply the better team and should be laying more than this against one of the bottom feeders of the MAAC. Iona has gone an impressive 19-8 in their last 27 conference road games, while the Golden Griffins are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games when coming off 3 or more wins in a row. We also have a strong system in play backing a fade of Canisius. Home underdogs with just two returning starters from last year, who are coming off a close home win by 3-points or less are just 61-109 (36%) ATS dating all the way back to 1997. Take Iona! |
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12-31-17 | Rider +1 v. Niagara | 99-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rider + I like the value here with the Broncs as at basically a pick'em on the road against the Purple Eagles. Rider comes in off a heartbreaking 76-77 loss at Canisius, but that was a tough spot playing on 7 days rest and off that huge upset win on the road over Penn State. I expect the Broncs to rebound here with a comfortable win over Niagara. While neither of these teams play much defense, the Purple Eagles have been atrocious on that side of the ball. Niagara is allowing 88 ppg, while allowing opponents to shoot 48% from the field and 40% from behind the 3-point line. Last time out they gave up 98 points to Iona and the Gaels only shot 39.5% from the field. Broncs are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog, while the Purple Eagles are just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 at home after a home game where both teams scored 75 or more points and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after playing their previous game as a home dog. Take Rider! |
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12-31-17 | Monmouth -2 v. St. Peter's | 64-77 | Loss | -102 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Monmouth - I like the value here with the Hawks laying a short number on the road against the Peacocks. This line really says it all, as Monmouth is favored, yet they come in at 4-9, while St. Peter's is 6-6. Not only have the Hawks played the much tougher schedule, but they have had some tough breaks in close games. Out of their 9 losses, only 2 have come by more than 11 points and those two were against Virginia and Kentucky. Last time out they lost a heartbreaker at Quinnipiac 76-78 in their conference opener and that's only going to have them more motivated to get a win here. Note that St. Peter's is just 26-48 ATS in their last 74 games when listed as a home dog and a mere 9-22 ATS in their last 31 home games vs teams who shoot 45% or better from the field. Take Monmouth! |
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12-30-17 | 76ers v. Nuggets OVER 215.5 | 107-102 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under TOTAL DOMINATOR on Nuggets OVER I look for the 76ers and Nuggets to have little to no problem going OVER the posted total here by the books. Denver features one of the most explosive offenses in the league, especially when they are home. The Nuggets are scoring 111.7 ppg at home, while shooting 49% from the field and 38% from long-distance. They should have no problem reaching their average at home and I would be shocked if they don't eclipse it. The 76ers are giving up 110.7 ppg on the road and will not have their best defender in Joel Embiid, as he sits this one out to rest. While the 76ers will mis Embiid's scoring, they play at a much faster tempo without him on the floor, as he likes to work a lot of isolations. Denver also isn't a great defensive team, so look for Philadelphia to eclipse 100 points rather easily here. Last time out the Nuggets combined for 253 points in their game against the Timberwolves and that sets up a very profitable spot, as the OVER is 10-1 in Denver's last 11 games after a contest with a combined score of 245 or more points. Take the OVER! |
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12-30-17 | Wisconsin v. Miami-FL UNDER 45 | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
4* NCAAF Orange Bowl TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin UNDER I think we have everything you want for a low-scoring game here in Saturday's Orange Bowl showdown between Wisconsin and Miami. Both these teams are limited offensively, but are dominant on the defensive side of the ball. It's no secret that the Badgers offense is built on their ground game. Wisconsin ranked 21st in rushing (229.2 ypg) compared to just 97th in passing (187 ypg). Miami has a very talented and athletic defensive front 7 and I think it will make it very hard for the Badgers to run the ball effectively. As for the Hurricane's offense, it's had more than their fair share of problems. In the ACC Championship Game against Clemson, they only managed 3 points and 197 total yards. Wisconsin comes in with the No. 1 ranked defense in the country, allowing just 253.3 ypg, ranking 2nd against the run and 4th against the pass. UNDER is 7-3 in Wisconsin's last 10 non-conference games, including a 3-1-1 mark in their last 5 bowl games. UNDER is also 16-5 in Miami's last 21 games overall and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 bowl games. Take the UNDER! |
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12-30-17 | Eastern Illinois +3.5 v. Austin Peay | 54-70 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Eastern Illinois + I like the value here with the Panthers catching points against the Governors. While Austin Peay has the better overall record, both teams have losing records and I just don't see a lot that separates these teams. The big key here is the history of this series and the struggles of the home team. The road team has gone an impressive 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings in the series and the underdog has covered 11 of the last 12. Take Eastern Illinois! |
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12-30-17 | Fairfield +3 v. Manhattan | 58-61 | Push | 0 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas ATS NO BRAINER on Fairfield + I really like the value here with the Stags as an underdog against Manhattan. Fairfield was the consensus favorite to win the MAAC this season, as they returned 4 starters, including a legit conference of the year candidate in senior guard Tyler Nelson. While the Stags have started out just 6-6, the schedule has been tough, as they have faced off against the likes of Purdue and Houston and had just 5 home games. All that experience playing away from home will only help them here. Manhattan is just 5-7, despite playing a much softer schedule than Fairfield. That was with the Jaspers starting the year out 2-0. They have won just 3 times in their last 7 games and are simply outclassed here. Note that last year Fairfield dominated both meetings, winning 78-49 at home and 97-79 at Manhattan (3-point dog in that one as well). The Stags are also 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games after playing 2 straight as a home favorite and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs a team with a winning record. Take Fairfield! |
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12-30-17 | Eastern Kentucky +8 v. Tennessee Tech | 69-77 | Push | 0 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG  on Eastern Kentucky + I like the value here with the Colonels as a big road dog against the Eagles. Eastern Kentucky has started out just 6-8, but have played a tough schedule with true road games against the likes of Ole Miss, Western Kentucky, Oregon State, Northern Kentucky, Marshall and Jacksonville State. They were double-digit dogs in each of those games and are 6-2 against the rest of their schedule. Tennessee Tech is a quality team, but are simply getting too much respect here. Not a big surprise as the Eagles have been overvalued quite a bit of late. In their last 6 games Tennessee Tech is 0-5-1 ATS. It's also worth noting that the Colonels returned 4 starters from last year's team, which swept the season season series against the Eagles, which included a 79-66 win at Tennessee Tech as a 4-point dog. Take Eastern Kentucky! |
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12-30-17 | Towson +4 v. College of Charleston | 62-73 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Towson + I like the value here with the Tigers catching what I feel is too many pints against the Cougars. Towson is simply undervalued here off back-to-back road losses to Pittsburgh and Oakland, while Charleston is overvalued coming in having won 7 of their last 8. This is a big time revenge game for the Tigers, who were knocked out of last year's CAA Tournament by the Cougars. These two teams have played a very similar strength of schedule to this point. Defensively both teams have played well, but the edge here goes to Towson on the offensive side of the ball. The Tigers are averaging 75.5 ppg vs teams that allow 74.2 ppg, while the Cougars are scoring just 69.5 ppg vs teams that allow 74 ppg. Charleston covered last time out and that's a good sign to go against them, as the Cougars are just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 off a cover. Tigers are 10-4-2 ATS last 16 games overall and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Towson! |
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12-30-17 | Drexel +5.5 v. Elon | Top | 75-90 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *CAA* GAME OF THE MONTH on Drexel + I like the value here with the Dragons catching a decent number here on the road against the Phoenix. Drexel comes in at just 6-7, but I've liked what I've seen from this team in non-conference play. They beat Houston 84-80 on a neutral court as a 14-point dog and won at LaSalle as a 12-point dog. They also lost by just 3-points in a true road game against Temple as a 16-point dog. Elon has started out 8-5, but most have their success has come against a soft schedule. The Phoenix did pull off an upset in their last game against Indiana State, but are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win. This is also Elon's first home game after playing 4 straight on the road and they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games after playing 3 or more consecutive road games. It's also worth noting that the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the Dragons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Elon. Take Drexel! |
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12-29-17 | USC v. Ohio State -7 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 226 h 11 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Bowl (Cotton) GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State - I don't just think the Buckeyes will beat USC, I'm confident they win here by double-digits. Ohio State is hands down the best team that didn't make the playoffs and I'm not buying this team isn't going to show up for this game because they got left out after winning the Big Ten Championship. The fact that the opponent here is USC will be more than enough to get the Buckeyes full attention. Coaching is a big factor in these bowl games and there's no question Ohio State has the coaching edge here with Urban Meyer over the Trojans Clay Helton. Meyer knows how to get his teams prepared for bowl games, as he's got a 10-3 record over his coaching career. Yes, they laid an egg in last year's playoff game against Clemson, losing 31-0, but I believe that only adds fuel to the fire. For me this comes down to the line of scrimmage and I think the Buckeyes will dominate on both sides. Ohio State held opposing teams to just 3 yards/carry and 1.6 yards/carry less than what their opponents averaged. On the flip side of this, the Buckeyes averaged 5.9 yards/carry on offense, which was 1.6 yards/carry more than what their opponents typically gave up. I don't think there's any questioning their ability to run the ball after they put up 238 yards on Wisconsin and 226 yards on Michigan in their last two games. It reminds me a lot of USC's game against Notre Dame, where they were outmanned at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and the Buckeyes are better than the Irish. Take Ohio State! |
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12-29-17 | Hawks +11 v. Raptors | 98-111 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Hawks + I like the value here with Atlanta catching double-digits against the Raptors on Friday. Toronto has hit a bit of a rough patch, as they have dropped 2 straight, including a loss at Dallas as a 5.5-point favorite. The Hawks have won their last two and have been a covering machine of late. Atlanta has covered 3 straight and 11 of their last 14. It's also worth pointing that the Hawks have been a great team to back away from home against high-scoring teams like the Raptors. Atlanta is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams that are scoring 110 or more points/game. We also have a strong system in play based on the Raptors 112-78 win at Atlanta the last time these two teams played. Underdogs that are revenging a home loss of 10 or more, who are coming off an upset win as a dog are 82-44 (65%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Take Atlanta! |
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12-29-17 | Rider +1.5 v. Canisius | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
5* NCAAB *MAAC* GAME OF THE MONTH on Rider + I love the value here with the Broncs as a short road dog against the Golden Griffins. Rider has been a pleasant surprise early on and come in off an impressive 71-70 win at Penn State as a 15-point dog. This is also a team that won at George Washington as a 5.5-point dog and only lost by 4 on the road against Providence as a 14-point dog. Canisius' strength of schedule doesn't even come close to comparing to the Broncs. The biggest dog the Golden Griffins have been all season is a 9.5-point dog at Buffalo. I just don't see Canisius being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Rider is averaging 82 ppg and scoring roughly 10 ppg more than what their opponents allow. The Griffins average just 70.8 ppg and are scoring less than what their opponents allow. I think Canisius is getting some respect here with this line because they come in off a 14-point win at Robert Morris, but the Griffins are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games off a road win by 10 or more points. Take Rider! |
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12-28-17 | San Francisco +5 v. San Diego | 63-73 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 19 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on San Francisco + I like the value here with the Dons catching points against the Toreros tonight. San Francisco returned just about everyone from last year's 20-win team and could push into the Top 3 of the WCC this season. San Diego also brings a lot back from last year, but they went just 13-18 and still have a ton of ground to make up to catch the top teams in this conference. I think we are getting value here because of the Toreros hot start, as they posted a 9-3 record in non-confernce, while the Dons went just 8-5. However, I've been a lot more impressed with San Francisco, who has played the tougher schedule. Last time out the Dons showed just how good they can be with a 66-64 upset win over Nevada as a 12.5-point dog and that Nevada team is a legit NCAA Tournament team. They also lost by just 18 against an elite Arizona State team on the road. I'll take the points here, but I fully expect the Dons to win this game outright. Take San Francisco! |
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12-28-17 | SIU-Edwardsville +7 v. Austin Peay | 58-78 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Edwardsville + I like the value here with the Cougars catching big number against the Governors in Thursday's college hoops action. These two teams were both picked to finish middle of the pack in the Ohio Valley and so far there's not a lot that has separated these two teams early on. SIU-Edwardsville is 4-7, while Austin Peay is 5-7 and both teams have played roughly the same strength of schedule to this point. I believe we are getting value here with the Cougars based on how these two teams performed against the spread in non-conference. Edwardsville went a miserable 1-8 ATS in their 9 lined games, while Austin Peay posted a 6-2 ATS mark in their 8 line games. History is definitely on the Cougars side in this one, as the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the underdog has gone 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take SIU-Edwardsville! |
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