Big Al McMordie Sports Picks

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies over Tennessee.  The Aggies come into this game off back to back road losses at Alabama and at South Carolina.  They're back home in College Station, where they are 9-3-1 ATS off back to back road losses, including 5-0-1 ATS their last six.  Meanwhile, the Vols are 13-27 ATS in SEC Conference play off a win by 14+ points.  And they fall into a negative 85-159 ATS system of mine, based on their season stats.  Take the Aggies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 12:45 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores + the points over Alabama.  Last week, the Crimson Tide pulled off a huge upset win, when it went into Baton Rouge, and upset LSU, 31-13, as a 6-point road underdog.  That upset win set the Crimson Tide up in several negative systems of mine, including ones with records of 32-81 ATS and 75-156 ATS since 1980.  The Crimson Tide are also 11-19 ATS off an upset win, including 0-7-1 ATS when laying 13+ points, and 0-9-1 if they were playing without rest, and covered by 14+ points in their previous game.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.   

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Golden Grizzlies over Northern Iowa.  The Grizz have had a miserable start to their season, as they're 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS.  They opened with a decent game vs. Michigan, falling by 16 as a 27-point dog.  But then they lost at Stanford, 81-63, at UCSB, 90-67, at Alabama, 109-68, and at Boise St., 111-79.  They were double-digit dogs in each of those games, and failed to cover by an average of 9.25 ppg.  We'll take Oakland to bounce back this evening, as they're finally playing a home game.  And the game is competitively-priced for the first time, as well.  Since 1980, NCAA teams off 3 ATS losses that lost by more than 20 in each of those three games, are 110-81 ATS.  Take the Golden Grizzlies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over Denver.  The Pels were blasted, 142-111, by Memphis last night.  And that followed a near-identical loss to Brooklyn, 145-111.  We'll take the Pelicans to cover this big number, as double-digit dogs have cashed 64% since 1990 off a home loss by more than 30 points.  Even better:  Denver is a dreadful 24-48 ATS on the road off an ATS win, if it was playing a foe off a double-digit loss.  Take New Orleans + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 5:00 pm, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles + the points over Louisiana Tech.  The Bulldogs are on a 6-game win streak, and have covered the spread in their last four after trouncing Troy, 41-17, on the road last week, as a 7-point favorite.  Meanwhile, the Golden Eagles will look to bounce back off a 54-23 loss last week at home to James Madison, as a 13.5-point dog.  We'll take Southern Miss, as teams off losses by 24+ points, that also failed to cover the spread by 17+ points, have gone 123-85 ATS in conference games vs. foes off a win by 24+ points, that covered the spread by 17+ points in that game.  Take Southern Miss.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Oregon.  The Wolverines were embarrassed last weekend when they fell at home, 15-6, to rival, Michigan State.  And that was the 7th game of nine that the Wolves failed to score more than 21 points.  Someone had to take the fall, and that someone was offensive coordinator, Jason Beck, who was fired on Sunday.  Oregon has also had a disappointing season, but nowhere near what Michigan is going through.  And the Ducks have salvaged some of it with back to back wins the past two weeks, including a huge upset win at Columbus last weekend over the Ohio State Buckeyes.  I look for a letdown by Oregon, as it is a soft 20-27 ATS in conference games off an upset win.  And Michigan falls into a 193-93 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams to bounce back off upset losses.  Take the Wolverines.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Jacksonville St.  The Gamecocks are 5-0 in Conference USA, while Western Kentucky is 2-3 after suffering an upset loss last week at Middle Tennessee St.  We'll fade the Gamecocks as teams with a 5-0 (or better) conference record have cashed just 41% the past 47 years off a SU/ATS win, when favored on the road vs. a conference foe off an upset loss.  Additionally, Western Kentucky is 50-18 ATS when priced from +10 to -1, including 32-10 ATS in conference games.  Take the Hilltoppers.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils + the points over Central Florida.  The Knights upset Kansas, 33-32, as a 6.5-point road underdog last week.  We'll fade UCF off that upset win, and take Arizona State, which has gone 11-6 ATS as an underdog on the road vs. foes off an upset win.  Meanwhile, UCF has covered just 41% the past 29 years as a favorite off an upset win.  And UCF falls into a negative 34-110 ATS system of mine based on its upset win last week.  Grab the points with the Sun Devils.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets + the points over Clemson.  These two teams are going in opposite directions.  Clemson has won and covered its last two, while the Yellow Jackets are on a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak.  Georgia Tech fired its defensive coordinator, Jason Semore, and three other assistants this week, as it looks to light a fire under its team for the remaining three games.  Oklahoma did a similar thing before last week's game when it fired its offensive coordinator, and then went into Florida and upset the Gators.  Will these coaching moves be a catalyst for better play on the field?  Maybe.  I certainly don't view it as a negative.  Anyway, we'll play on Brent Key's men, as ACC Conference teams off back-to-back losses are 129-102 ATS as underdogs vs. conference foes off back to back wins.  Grab the points.

At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Michigan St.  The Spartans pulled off a huge upset last week, when they went into Ann Arbor and defeated their cross-state rival, Michigan, 15-6, as a 14-point dog.  The Huskies, meanwhile, were upset at home, 28-25, by Penn State.  We'll take Washington to bounce back, as it's 23-11 ATS off an upset loss, when matched-up against a foe off a win, including 5-1 ATS if their foe was off an upset win.  Take Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Baylor.  The Cougars lost last week, 28-20, at rival Utah.  And that dropped BYU's record to 7-2.  It will look to bounce back against a 6-3 Baylor squad off back-to-back wins.  Big 12 Conference teams are 163-95 ATS off an ATS loss the previous week, when priced from -7 to -31 points in their current game.  And Baylor is 26-43 ATS as an underdog vs. a conference foe off a SU loss.  Lay the points with BYU.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Southern Eagles minus the points over Georgia State.  The Panthers upset Appalachian St, 39-23, as a 6.5-point road underdog last week.  Georgia State has been much better in its Conference road games (29-22 ATS) than at home (21-32 ATS).  And teams off upset road wins that covered the spread by more than 21 points in that upset, are a soft 81-104 ATS vs. conference foes off a win.  Lay the points with Georgia Southern.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Maryland.  The Terps pulled off a big upset last Saturday in West Lafayette against Purdue.  Maryland was a 5.5-point underdog, and upset the Boilers, 34-29.  But some bad news came across the wire on Wednesday evening when it was announced QB Malik Washington would be questionable to play Saturday due to an undisclosed injury.  Regardless of who lines up under center for Maryland, we will go against it as it's a soft 50-73 ATS in conference games when getting more than 7 points.  And it falls into a negative 427-583 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off upset wins.  Lay the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Duke.  The Blue Devils enter off 3 SU/ATS wins over Virginia, Boston College and NC State.  We'll fade Duke on the road, as ACC Conference teams off 3 SU/ATS wins are 21-43-2 ATS, including 2-7 ATS as a road underdog.  Lay the points with Miami.

At 10 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Texas-El Paso Miners + the points over Wyoming.  The Cowboys are on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak, while UTEP is on a losing streak of seven games.  The Miners did, however, cover the number last week, as they lost by just 3 to Hawaii, as a 7-point home dog.  The Miners are home again this week, and have been installed as a bigger underdog vs. the Cowboys.  We'll fade Wyoming, as it's a woeful 8-24 ATS as a road favorite when it's owned a winning record, including 2-14 ATS vs. a foe off a point spread win.  And the Cowboys also fall into negative 8-38 and 51-90 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams on win streaks that are matched-up against foes on losing streaks.  We'll grab the points with UTEP.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 9 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners + the points over North Texas.  The Roadrunners were run over in their last game, a 60-29 loss at Florida Atlantic, as a 7-point road favorite.  The good news for UTSA is that it's 17-1 ATS its last 18 off a conference loss, including 9-0 ATS at home.  That bodes well for the Roadrunners.  As does the fact that winning teams, off a conference blowout loss by more than 20 points, are 223-160 ATS vs. conference foes off a SU/ATS win.  Grab the points with Texas-San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Southern Cal.  The Trojans upset the Ohio State Buckeyes, 30-18, in their last game.  But that was at home, in Los Angeles.  When the Trojans go on the road, they've been terrible, as they're 47-72 ATS since 2004, including 34-58 ATS vs. .500 (or better teams).  And they're also a woeful 23-61 ATS away from home if both USC and its opponent enter off SU wins.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over Florida Atlantic.  Last week, Tulsa went down to New Orleans, and took Tulane behind the woodshed, giving the Green Wave a serious beating, with a 60-10 blowout.  We'll ride the momentum here, at home, as home favorites (or PK) are a stellar 56-35 ATS since 1980 in conference games after a road win in which they scored 60+ points.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons have won six straight after blowing out Merrimack last weekend, 77-0.  And they're also 6-0 ATS their last six FBS games.  We'll fade Wake Forest on the road, as underdogs have cashed just 36.4% the past 47 seasons in conference games when on an ATS win streak of 6+ games.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats + the points over Utah.  The Utes extended their win streak to 15 games, including 9 this season, with a 28-20 win over rival, BYU.  But all good things must come to an end, and I think the Utes will fall hard in the desert on Saturday night.  Indeed, teams off a SU/ATS win, and 5+ wins overall, are 43-69 ATS as road favorites vs. .777 (or better) conference foes.  And undefeated teams are a poor 72-93 ATS as road favorites at Game 10 (or later).  Finally, the Utes are 1-5 ATS on the road following a battle with BYU.  Take Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.