Tom Macrina Sports Picks

I like the Bucks +11 as a solid play here. The spread feels inflated given the matchup dynamics.
Milwaukee has shown real momentum lately, winning and covering in each of their last three games. They're on a three game winning streak overall, battling through injuries (notably without Giannis) but finding ways to grind out results and keep games competitive.
Orlando, meanwhile, has been frustratingly inconsistent this season. Despite a decent record, their defense has slipped to middle of the pack levels, and the offense has regressed at times amid ongoing injury issues and uneven effort. They've struggled to string together wins—rarely building momentum, with long stretches of alternating results or bigger losses against quality opponents. Home court advantage helps, but this doesn't scream like a blowout setup.
This is the first of a rare back to back between these two teams in Orlando, which could introduce fatigue or adjustment factors, especially for a Bucks squad already showing resilience on the road.
Double digit spreads in NBA games often overprice favorites when the underdog is hot and the home team isn't dominating consistently. The Bucks have the recent form to hang around, keep it within single digits for much of the game, or make a late push. Value lies with Milwaukee getting the points.
Play: Bucks +11

Let's cash some tickets!

The Chicago Bulls are in a rough spot right now, losers of their last four games with no signs of covering spreads consistently in that stretch. Zooming out, they've only managed one win in their last seven (1-6), highlighting a team that's struggling to find any rhythm or defensive consistency.
As road favorites, the Bulls have been particularly unreliable this season—I can't trust them in that spot. Their overall road record is poor, and when favored away from home, they've failed to cover in most cases, often getting exposed against motivated or desperate opponents.
Meanwhile, the Brooklyn Nets just snapped a funk with a convincing home win over the Washington Wizards (127-113 on Feb 7), showing some offensive pop and swagger at Barclays Center. They're coming in as sizable underdogs, but this feels like a classic spot where the line could move toward the favorite as public money piles on Chicago—similar to patterns we've seen in other recent Bulls matchups.
Given the Bulls current skid, road favorite issues, and the Nets fresh momentum at home, I'm fading Chicago here.
Play: Nets +4.5

Let's cash some tickets!

The line has trended slightly downward in some spots, which aligns with value on the under—especially as the market may have initially baked in more scoring potential from Xavier's faster pace earlier in the season.
Neither team is a classic "under" squad overall, but St. John's shows a strong home under tendency in recent games. This makes sense given Rick Pitino's defensive-minded approach, which often prioritizes control and limits possessions, particularly at home where they can dictate tempo.
With such a large spread, St. John's has a clear path to pulling away early or midway through. If they build a comfortable lead (very likely given their strong form, 18-5 record, and dominance in Big East play), they could ease off the gas in the second half—running clock, substituting liberally, and reducing offensive urgency. Xavier, struggling on the road and in a rebuilding phase under Richard Pitino, may lack the firepower to keep pushing the pace late against a superior opponent.
This dynamic often leads to lower-scoring second halves in blowouts, suppressing the total. The under also fits if St. John's clamps down defensively while Xavier struggles to generate efficient looks.
Best play: St. John's/Xavier Under 160.5

Utah Jazz +7.5: Strong Value Play on the Dog
I successfully backed the Jazz on Saturday (covering +7.5 in a competitive 117-120 loss to Orlando), and the case for them again tonight remains compelling.
While the Jazz aren't winning many games outright this season (sitting at 16-37 overall), they've been one of the league's better against the spread (ATS) teams, particularly as underdogs. They've covered in their last four games on the road:

@ Orlando: Lost 117-120 but covered +7.5
@ Atlanta: Lost 119-121 but covered +8.5
@ Indiana: Won 131-122 (as slight favorites, but shows scoring punch)
@ Toronto: Lost 100-107 but covered +10

This current five-game road trip has highlighted their resilience—they've kept games close despite the challenges, often hanging tough or even pulling off upsets in competitive matchups.
Line movement supports the play: The Jazz +7.5 has already started dropping (some books moving toward +7 or lower), indicating sharp money and public lean coming in on Utah as public perception catches up to their recent ATS success.
Defensively, neither side stands out—the Jazz allow plenty of points, but so do many opponents in high pace, poor defense games. This sets up for a potential shootout where Utah's scoring ability shines.
I love backing a motivated underdog that can put points on the board, especially one that's consistently kept games within single digits despite roster turnover and road fatigue. With their recent form on this trip and history of covering as sizable dogs, the Jazz have the tools to stay competitive here.
Play: Utah Jazz +7.5

The Detroit Pistons (38-13) enter as the top team in the Eastern Conference and remain favorites in this matchup against the Charlotte Hornets (25-28), with the spread currently sitting at Pistons -2.5 for Monday night's game at Spectrum Center.
Despite Detroit's elite standing and a dominant recent performance—a commanding 118-80 blowout win over the New York Knicks on February 6—the Hornets are riding serious momentum. Charlotte has won 9 games in a row, their longest streak in over 25 years, including a strong road victory over Atlanta to extend it. They've been particularly tough at home, where they've covered spreads consistently and played with confidence during this hot run.
Both teams boast strong two-way play: the Pistons lead the East with elite defense and balanced scoring, while the surging Hornets have shown they can compete on both ends, especially in recent outings.
This sets up a classic spot to back the home underdog +2.5. Charlotte's winning streak, home-court edge, and ability to cover in similar situations make them a solid play to keep it close or even pull off the upset outright. With the Pistons strong record drawing public money, the line could shift toward Detroit—consider holding off or shopping lines for a better number on the Hornets.
Value lies with the streaking home team here.