Cappers Sports Picks

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over Seattle.  The Chargers have started the season 0-3 SU/ATS after reaching the Playoffs last season.  We'll grab the points with Jim Harbaugh's men on Sunday afternoon, as winless teams, with an 0-2 (or worse) record, that made the Playoffs the previous season, have gone 71-41-2 ATS as underdogs.  Additionally, defending Super Bowl Champs have covered just 43 of their last 109 when priced from -6.5 to -13 points, including 11-24 ATS in the first 6 games of the season.  Take the Chargers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Minnesota Vikings.  Minnesota has been installed as a double-digit favorite vs. the Dolphins.  But the Vikings have generally not been trustworthy when laying a lot of points, as they're 44-64 ATS when favored by 7+.  Admittedly, the Vikings come into this game off back to back upset wins on the road (at Chicago; at Tampa Bay).  Unfortunately, NFL teams off back to back road upset wins have covered just seven of 27 games vs. foes off back-to-back losses.  And winless, double-digit dogs are 56-39 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins.  The Dolphins lost by 14 to the Kansas City Chiefs last week.  But that was a deceptive score, as Miami was only outgained by 5 yards (334-329).  Grab the points with Miami.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Chicago Bears/New York Jets game.  The Bears opened the season with a bang, as they blew out Carolina, 59-37.  Their next two games were much lower-scoring, as they lost to the Minnesota Vikings, 9-3, in the rain, and then they defeated the Eagles last Monday, 27-7.  We'll look for a higher-scoring game on Sunday, as NFL teams have gone 197-148 OVER the total after not giving up more than 20 points across their previous two games.  Take the Bears/Jets OVER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Chicago Bears.  Last Monday, we played on Chicago as a home dog vs. Philadelphia, and got the $$$ when Case Keenum led the Bears to a 27-7 win.  Unfortunately for Chicago, .363 (or better) teams with a winning ATS record, and priced from +2 to -5.5 points, are an ugly 0-22 ATS off an upset win at home by more than 10 points.  Additionally, Chicago falls into a negative 84-152-4 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off a good defensive game.  Grab the points with the Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New England/Buffalo game.  The Bills have gone 7-2-1 OVER the total in their last 10 games.  The two games that went under were last week's 24-16 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers (when Buffalo had 5 turnovers) and last year's 13-12 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in a heavy rain storm.  The weather is expected to be beautiful in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon, and I expect a game similar to when these teams last met (December 14), a 35-31 Bills win.  Admittedly, the Patriots mustered just 6 points last week in their 35-6 defeat at the hands of the Jaguars.  But NFL teams have gone OVER the total more often than not after scoring less than 7 points, including 35-19 OVER their last 54 in this situation.  The OVER also falls into one of my favorite Totals systems which is 265-179.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the point over Baltimore.  The Ravens defeated Dallas last week, 34-31.  And that was the 3rd straight game where the Ravens gave up 23+ points.  For the season, Baltimore's defense is allowing 26 ppg.  I'm not a big fan of laying a lot of points with teams that give up more than 24 ppg, as they're a poor 76-115-4 ATS as favorites of -9 (or more) points.  Take Tennessee + the points.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  Last season, the Patriots reached the Super Bowl, but they've stumbled to a 1-2 start this season.  Of course, their two losses were to last season's Champs -- the Seahawks -- and the Jacksonville Jaguars (who are 10-1 SU/ATS their last 11 regular season games).  I look for New England to bounce back off its 35-6 blowout loss last week, as losing teams have cashed 63% the past 47 seasons on the road vs. winning foes, if our losing team was getting 4+ points, and off a loss by more than 28 points.  The Patriots are 5-1 ATS vs. the Bills in the last six meetings, and did not lose any of those games by more than 6 points.  Indeed, the only two games of their last 25 that resulted in a loss by more than 7 points were last week's game, and the 29-13 Super Bowl defeat to Seattle.  Finally, the Bills are a soft 14-23 ATS when laying 6+ points, including 7-18 ATS off a SU win, and 4-11 ATS in division games.  Take New England + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Arizona Cardinals/New York Giants game.  The Giants come into this game off back-to-back low-scoring games, with a 12-7 win against the Tennessee Titans last week, and a 28-6 loss at the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2.  However, it must be noted that both the Rams (#2) and Titans (#8) rank among the Top 10 defensive teams in the league in yards per play allowed.  Los Angeles gives up just 4.6 ypp, and Tennessee allows 4.9 ypp.  The Arizona Cardinals are dead last in the league (tied with the Indianapolis Colts) at 6.5 ypp allowed, so expect the sledding to be easier this Sunday for Jameis Winston & Co.  Also, it's certainly true that, for the season, John Harbaugh's team's games are averaging just 33.66 ppg.  And with the Over/Under line significantly higher than that, many bettors might look for another low-scoring game here.  But be careful, as the OVER has CASHED 60.3% the past 20 seasons if one (or both) teams' games averaged 34 or less points, and the O/U line was not greater than 46 points.  We'll take the Giants and Cardinals OVER the total on Sunday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:15 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Pittsburgh.  We played on the Steelers last week, and got the $$$ when they upset the Cincinnati Bengals.  But off that upset win, we'll fade Mike McCarthy's men on the road on Thursday night, as road teams are a soft 13-30-1 ATS on Thursdays since 1980 following an upset win in their previous game.  Pittsburgh is also a poor 15-22 ATS as a favorite vs. .350 (or better) foes.  And the underdog has gone 61-41 ATS in AFC North division games.  Finally, the Steelers land in several negative systems of mine this week off that upset win, that have records of 37-90 63-126 and 308-389.  Take Cleveland + the points.  Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over Philadelphia.  The Bears lost to their division rival, the Vikings, last week, 9-3.  And they lost more than just the football game, as QB Caleb Williams sustained a grade 2 hamstring injury, which will sideline him for a month.  Veteran QB Case Keenum will be under center tonight for Chicago, and Tyson Bagent will serve as the backup.  We'll take Chicago as a home underdog, as single-digit home underdogs have gone 83-59 ATS off a home loss in which they scored less than 10 points.  Even better:  home underdogs off division upset losses are 96-76 ATS, including 11-6 ATS on Monday Night Football.  Additionally, the underdog has covered 5 straight in Philadelphia Eagles games, while the dog is 12-5 ATS in this Eagles/Bears series.  Grab the points with Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over Las Vegas.  The Raiders are a surprising 2-0 after wins over Miami and the Los Angeles Chargers to start the season.  We'll fade Las Vegas on the road, as New Orleans is a stellar 77-44-3 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes off a win, while Las Vegas is 7-17 ATS on the road off an upset division win.  Take the Saints.

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over Dallas.  The Cowboys and Ravens will face off at Maracana Stadium, in Brazil, on this afternoon.  Dallas rebounded off its Week 1 loss to the Giants with a 37-20 thrashing of division rival, Washington, while Baltimore was stunned at home, 24-17, by the New Orleans Saints.  We'll take the Ravens to bounce back off that upset loss, as Dallas is a dreadful 15-31 ATS vs. non-division foes with a .500 (or better) record.  And Baltimore falls into a 90-45 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over San Francisco.  The 49ers are off to a fantastic 2-0 start, with wins against the Rams and Dolphins.  They'll host division rival, Arizona, on this Sunday, and are laying north of a touchdown.  We'll happily grab the points, as San Francisco is a soft 7-20 ATS as a home favorite vs. foes not off a SU win.  And Arizona is 31-10 ATS its last 41 as a single-digit road underdog.  Take the Cardinals + the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over the Minnesota Vikings.  We played against Tampa last Sunday, as Cleveland was our #1 play that day (our NFL Underdog of the Month), and the Browns rewarded us with a 23-19 upset win.  But now, we will switch gears and take the Bucs off that upset loss (and fade Minnesota off its upset win over Chicago).  The Vikings are 2-0 SU/ATS, while the Bucs are 0-2 SU/ATS.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take Minnesota, given the small point spread.  But be careful, as winless ATS teams off an upset loss have cashed 66.1% vs. foes off upset wins that have yet to lose ATS.  Take Tampa as a home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Chargers were upset in each of their first two games, as they lost 26-14 to Arizona, as a 9.5-point favorite in Week 1, and fell to the Las Vegas Raiders, 26-14, as a 6.5-point favorite.  Meanwhile, the Bills are in mid-season form with two wins vs. Houston (36-31) and Detroit (41-31).  We'll grab the points with Jim Harbaugh's men, as underdogs have cashed 67% the past 46 years off back to back losses as 6-point (or greater) favorites, if they were matched-up against a foe off an ATS win.  Even better:  teams that are off back-to-back SU/ATS wins have cashed just 26% since 1980 if they scored 35+ points in each victory, and their opponent was off back-to-back SU/ATS losses.  Finally, the Chargers are a solid 57-16 ATS as a road dog, priced from +2 to +10.5, if they were not off back-to-back wins, and owned a losing record.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the OVER in the New England/Jacksonville game.  The Patriots come into this game off back to back low-scoring games.  They lost to Seattle, 13-10, to open the season, and bounced back with a 20-3 win vs. Pittsburgh last week.  With an average total points of 23.0, we'll look for a much higher-scoring game vs the Jaguars.  Indeed, since 1980, NFL teams whose games average less than 25 ppg have gone OVER the total 61.4% (at Game 3 forward).  Take the Patriots/Jaguars OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Kansas City.  The Dolphins have been installed as a double-digit home dog.  And since 1980, double-digit home dogs have been a reliable bet, going 136-103-2 ATS, including 88-56-1 ATS vs. foes with a scoring margin of 8+ ppg.  With the Chiefs, indeed, outscoring their foes by 12.0 ppg, we'll grab the points with Miami.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over Cincinnati.  Mike McCarthy's men lost 20-3 at New England last Sunday to fall to 1-1 on the season.  Meanwhile, Joe Burrow & Co. are 2-0 after going into Houston, and trouncing the Texans, 20-6.  We'll take Pittsburgh as a home dog, as AFC North division underdogs have gone 60-41-2 ATS vs. division rivals, including 19-7-1 when the Steelers were the underdog.  Grab the points.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over Green Bay.  We played against Atlanta last week, and got the $$$ with Carolina, in a 34-3 blowout in Atlanta.  Cooper Rush started at QB for the Falcons in that game, but #1 QB, Michael Penix, Jr. will be back under center on Thursday night.  We'll grab the points with Atlanta, as NFL teams off home losses by more than 30 points have gone 74-48-5 ATS if they weren't getting 12+ points in their current game.  Dating back to last season, Green Bay is 4-13-1 ATS its last 18, including 0-6-1 ATS its last seven.  And it's 2-9 ATS its last 11 vs. an opponent off a SU loss.  Take the Falcons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over the New York Giants.  The John Harbaugh-Era in New York got off on the right foot last week when the G-Men upset division rival, Dallas, 28-20.  In contrast, the Rams laid an egg in Australia, as they were destroyed, 27-7, by the San Francisco 49ers.  We'll look for Sean McVay's men to bounce back, as Week 2 teams have cashed 59.1% since 1980 off an upset loss when matched-up against a foe off an upset win.  And the Rams are 7-1 ATS their last 8 off an upset loss, and 11-7-1 ATS vs. foes off an upset win, including 7-0-1 ATS if the Rams were off a SU loss.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Andy Reid's men blew out division rival, Denver, last Monday night, 31-10.  They'll host the Colts at Arrowhead on Sunday night.  And Indianapolis will be looking to bounce back off a 41-23 home loss to the Baltimore Ravens.  We'll take the underdog here, as the Chiefs are a miserable 1-11 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 points off a win by 14+ points.  Meanwhile, the Colts are 39-14 ATS off a loss in which they failed to cover the spread by 8+ points, including 28-4 ATS in non-division games when they're not favored by more than 3.  Take Indianapolis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over San Francisco.  The 49ers upset the Los Angeles Rams last week, 27-7.  We'll fade the Niners on Sunday afternoon, as home teams have cashed just 31 percent since 1980 off a double-digit upset win, if they were playing a foe off a SU/ATS loss.  Grab the points with Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm,our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over Las Vegas.  The Chargers suffered the biggest upset loss in Week 1 when they fell to the Arizona Cardinals, 26-14, as an 8.5-point favorite.  Meanwhile, the Raiders blew out Miami, 27-13.  We'll look for the Chargers to bounce back off that upset loss, as NFL teams that were upset as favorites of 8+ points have cashed 64.2% vs. division foes off a SU win, dating back to 1980.  And favorites off an upset loss in their home openers have cashed 62.5% since 1980 vs. foes not off an ATS loss.  Finally, the Chargers have cashed 75% as divisional home favorites off an upset home loss since 1980.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers minus the points over Atlanta.  The Panthers were annihilated last week, 59-37, by the Chicago Bears.  Atlanta also lost, but only by seven to Pittsburgh, 20-13.  We'll lay the points with the Panthers on the road, as road favorites have gone 23-2 SU and 20-5 ATS in division games after allowing 42+ points in their previous game.  Carolina is a super 14-1 ATS off a SU loss, including 11-0 ATS its last 11.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over the New York Jets.  The Jets went on the road in Week 1 and upset the Tennessee Titans, 23-10.  New York is back home on Sunday, and has been installed as an underdog vs. the Packers.  We'll fade New York, as home dogs have cashed just 24 percent since 1980 off a win in their season opener, if they're matched-up against a foe off a SU loss.  Lay the points with the Packers.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Tampa Bay.  The Browns were blown out on the road by the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1, 34-10, while Tampa Bay fell to the Cincinnati Bengals, 33-27.  The Browns are saddled with another road game in Week 2, and we'll grab the points with Cleveland, as Week 2 road underdogs have cashed 65.7% since 1980 after scoring less than 17 points in Week 1.  Cleveland also falls into a 116-37 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  Take the Browns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.                             

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans minus the points over Cincinnati.  The Texans lost at home to Buffalo last week, 36-31, while Cincinnati defeated Tampa Bay, 33-27.  Houston's back home for this game, and we'll lay the points, as home favorites have cashed 57% in Week 2 off a home loss in their season opener, if they were playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win.  Take the Texans.

At 6:30 pm, on Sunday, February 8, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks to go OVER the total. New England went 9-0 away from home this season, while Seattle went 8-1 away from home. And both teams had no problem putting up points on the road. The Patriots averaged 27.3, while the Seahawks averaged 24.2. Admittedly, both of these two teams have stellar defenses. Seattle gives up just 17.10 ppg, while New England's scoring defense is a smidge higher, at 17.30 ppg. But even though both have great defensive units, I foresee a higher-scoring game than anticipated. Indeed, NFL post-season games tend to be OVERS when two teams with very good defenses meet up. Since 1980, Playoff games between teams with scoring defenses that give up less than 20 ppg have gone 55.2% UNDER, while Playoff games between teams with scoring defenses that give up 20+ ppg have gone 57.9% OVER the total. Likewise, if both teams' scoring defenses give up, in the aggregate, LESS than 34.5 ppg, the OVER has cashed 60.4 percent since 1980, including 14-5 in Super Bowls. The Patriots are a decided underdog in the game. And they've gone 19-8 OVER the total when installed as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 25-15 OVER the total as a favorite, including 15-6 OVER when favored by more than 4 points. Finally, the OVER also falls into systems of mine with records of 24-1, 40-7, 39-20, 62-35, 50-13 and 54-15. Take the Patriots and Seahawks OVER the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over Seattle.  The Rams won their first two playoff games, but failed to cover the point spread in each game.  They defeated Carolina, 34-31, and then survived in overtime to knock off Chicago, 20-17.  In contrast, Seattle was most impressive last week in its 41-6 thrashing of San Francisco.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to succumb to recency bias, and gravitate toward the Seahawks.  But we'll run the other way and grab the points with the underdog Rams.  Indeed, NFL underdogs have gone 32-21 ATS in the Playoffs following back-to-back ATS losses.  And teams off playoff wins by 35+ points have gone just 3-8 ATS in their next game.  Take the Rams.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks to go OVER the total.  NFC Conference Championship games have gone 23-9 OVER the total, including 13-1 OVER if the O/U line was greater than 46 points.  Admittedly, the Rams/Bears game was very low-scoring, with just 37 points scored.  But the Rams had gone OVER the total in seven straight games prior to that one, which was played in inclement weather in Chicago.  This game won't have any weather issues, whatsoever.  Additionally, teams that scored 20 (or less) points in a Playoff victory have then gone 50-34-1 OVER the total in their next Playoff game.  Take the Rams/Seahawks OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.  

At 3:00 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over New England.  The Broncos suffered a bad break last week when #1 QB, Bo Nix, sustained an ankle injury toward the end of their win vs. Buffalo.  Jarrett Stidham will take over behind center in this AFC Championship game, so the Broncos have been installed as a home underdog.  We'll happily take the points with Denver, as it's 47-26-2 ATS as a home underdog (or PK).  Even better:  Denver is 55-13-3 ATS at home when it wasn't favored by more than 2 points, and its win percentage was NOT .333 worse than its opponent's win percentage.  Take Denver + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Chicago/Los Angeles game.  Last week, the Rams survived a game effort by Carolina to win, 34-31.  And that was Los Angeles' 7th straight game to go OVER the total.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game here.  But the Rams have gone 22-10 UNDER after giving up 27+ points in their previous game.  And NFL teams off 7 (or more) Overs in a row have proceeded to go UNDER 58% since 1980.  The Under also falls into 361-257-13 and 39-13-1 Totals systems of mine.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Houston/New England game.  The Patriots have tended to play high-scoring games at home in the Playoffs, with the OVER going 11-5-1 in the last 17 games played in Foxborough in the post-season.  And the Patriots and Texans have also tended to play high-scoring games, as the OVER is 11-4 in this series, including 6-2 in games at New England, and 6-1 in games with O/U lines less than 45 points.  Admittedly, both teams have staunch defenses, with the Texans allowing 16.7 ppg, and the Patriots giving up 17.9 ppg.  But NFL Playoff games have gone 55.2% OVER since 1980 when both teams don't allow 20+ ppg.  Finally, the OVER falls into 34-5 and 44-13 Totals systems of mine.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the OVER in the Seattle/San Francisco game.  These two teams met at the end of the regular season, and the Seahawks were victorious, 13-3.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game on Saturday night.  But be careful, as NFL games have gone 349-286-12 OVER the total if the season's previous meeting totaled less than 33 points.  Moreover, Playoff games with point spreads of 7 (or more) also tend to be higher scoring, going OVER the total 56% since 1980.  The Over also falls into 11-0 and 7-0 Playoff Totals systems of mine.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over the New England Patriots.  The biggest key, for me, in this game is playoff experience at the quarterback position.  Yes, Justin Herbert has never WON a playoff game.  But he has been in two games.  The first was three seasons ago when the Chargers blew a 27-0 lead vs. Jacksonville, and fell, 31-30.  Then, last season, the Chargers were blown out by the Houston Texans.  Drake Maye, on the other hand, will taste the post-season for the very first time on Sunday.  Advantage:  Herbert.  This will also be the Patriots' first playoff game in four years.  I don't mind playing on an underdog in its initial playoff game which didn't reach the post-season the previous year.  But I don't like laying points with such teams.  The Chargers are 113-66-10 ATS as a road underdog of +2 (or more) points, including 35-15 ATS off back-to-back losses, and 6-2 ATS in the playoffs.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers plus the points over Philadelphia.  The 49ers come into this game off a 13-3 loss to rival, Seattle.  We'll take San Francisco to bounce back this afternoon as it's 102-64-4 ATS off a SU loss, if it wasn't an underdog of more than 3 points in that prior game.  Even better:  the Eagles are a soft 9-16 ATS when laying 6 (or more) points.  Take San Francisco.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Jacksonville.  The Jaguars have won their last eight games.  But long win streaks are not necessarily a good thing when it comes to covering point spreads in the Playoffs.  Indeed, since 1980, teams on 8-game (or better) win streaks have cashed just 35.1%.  Moreover, the Bills have been great as underdogs, dating back to Josh Allen's rookie season, as they're 20-12-2 ATS when catching points.  Take Buffalo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  The Panthers have been installed as a double-digit home underdog, and it's been very profitable to back double-digit home dogs in the NFL.  Indeed, they're 135-103 ATS since 1980, including a perfect 2-0 ATS in the Playoffs (in 2011, Seattle won outright, 41-36, over New Orleans; in 2021, the Commanders lost by just 8 vs. Tampa).  Take the Panthers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Chiefs cannot be trusted to lay any points, as they're now 24-44-1 ATS their last 69 when favored by more than 3 points.  Take the Raiders to close out the season with a strong performance at home.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Denver Broncos minus the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  These two teams met earlier this season in Los Angeles, and the Chargers were victorious, 23-20.  I like the Broncos to avenge that defeat in this season finale.  Indeed, Denver will wrap up the #1 seed (and a bye into the quarterfinals) with a win over the Chargers.  We played against the Broncos on Christmas, and got the $$$ with the Chiefs as a double-digit underdog.  We'll switch gears, and take Denver here, as home teams, priced from -3.5 to -13.5 points, have cashed 90 of 149 if they won, but failed to cover as a double-digit favorite in their previous game.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Miami.  The Pats still have an outside shot at the #1 seed (and a bye into the quarterfinals).  New England has gone 32-13 ATS since 1980 in its final home game of the season, including 12-0 ATS their last 12 when priced from -8 to -17 points.  Take the Patriots.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over Tennessee.  The Jaguars have won seven straight heading into their final home game of the regular season.  And their last two wins both came on the road, at Denver, and at Indianapolis.  We'll lay the points on Sunday, as double-digit home favorites have cashed 59.2% off back to back road wins.  Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  Although these two teams won't be going to the Playoffs, the fates of the Buccaneers and Panthers rests on the shoulders of the Saints and Falcons.  Should Atlanta win, then Carolina will head to the post-season, while a Saints triumph would benefit Tampa.  Last week, the Falcons upset the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football.  Unfortunately, the Falcons generally don't play well in back-to-back home games, and are 13-36-3 ATS at home off a home win.  Even worse:  they're 1-9 ATS off an upset win as a 3-point (or greater) underdog.  Take New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Seattle Seahawks/San Francisco 49ers game.  This game will determine the NFC West division champion, and the #1 seed in the NFC Conference.  Since 2007, competitively-priced games (with point spreads of 3 or less) in the NFC West division have gone 54-25-2 UNDER the total.  And that's the way we will look in this season finale, given the stakes for both teams.  The last two meetings of these rivals have seen scores of 20-17 and 17-13.  More of the same.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over Carolina.  We played on the Panthers when they were a home underdog earlier this month vs. Tampa, and got the $$$ in a 23-20 upset win.  This re-match will be played in Tampa, and the Bucs are once again installed as the favorite, notwithstanding the fact that they've lost their last four games in a row, straight-up (and are 0-8 ATS their last eight).  We'll lay the points, as teams (like Tampa) riding 3-game SU/ATS losing streaks have gone 22-7 ATS in their final home game of the season, if they weren't getting more than 6 points.  Take the Buccaneers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Atlanta/Los Angeles game.  The Falcons have played their last six Monday Night Football games UNDER the total, as have the Rams.  And while it's true that Los Angeles' last four games have all sailed over the total, Monday Night Football games have gone 65.1% UNDER since 1980 if a team had played its previous four games Over the total.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago/San Francisco game to go UNDER the total.  I like playing on the Under in match-ups between two good teams with .583 (or better) win percentages, if the game was competitively-priced with a point spread less than 5 points, and the O/U line was greater than 49 points.  Since 1980, these games have gone UNDER 59.2%.  Take the Bears and 49ers UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Pittsburgh.  The Steelers won the first meeting of the season, 23-9, in Pittsburgh.  We'll take the Browns in the rematch, as the team playing with revenge has cashed 58% in this rivalry, including 64% ATS at home.  And NFL teams, priced from -2 to +9, have gone 16-0-1 ATS at home in the final 2 weeks of the regular season, if they were off 3+ losses, and their foe was off 2+ wins.  Take the Browns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over New England.  The Jets have been installed as a double-digit home dog.  Dating back to 1980, double-digit home dogs have gone 135-102 ATS, including 90-59 ATS vs. .666 (or better) foes off a SU win.  Take the Jets.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over the New Orleans Saints.  This is the Titans' final home game of the season.  Since 1980, NFL teams with a worse record than their opponent, have cashed 56% in their final home game of the season when installed as an underdog.  Grab the points with Tennessee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Jacksonville/Indianapolis game.  AFC South division games have gone 57% under in games with O/U lines greater than 44 points, including 67.2% if it was the 2nd meeting of the season.  Take the Colts and Jaguars Under.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over Carolina.  The Panthers scored a huge upset win last week when they upended division rival, Tampa Bay, as a 3-point home dog.  We'll fade Carolina at home this afternoon, as it has cashed just 27% at home off a division upset win, if its opponent was also off a SU win.  Meanwhile, Seattle is a solid 40-29-1 ATS vs. non-division foes off an upset win.  Lay the points with Seattle.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the New York Jets/New England game.  Fifteen of the last 20 meetings between these AFC East division rivals have gone UNDER the total, including 8-1 UNDER in games played at the Jets.  Additionally, The Jets have gone 22-11-2 UNDER in their final home game of the season, including 6-0-1 UNDER when the O/U line was between 41 and 45 points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Jacksonville.  The Colts have lost 5 straight games.  We'll grab the points with Indy this afternoon, as home dogs have cashed 57% of division games since 1980 in the season's final 3 weeks if they were off 5+ losses.  Take the Colts.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Cincinnati/Arizona game.  The Bengals' defense has been porous this season, giving up 30.53 ppg.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  But NFL teams with defenses that allow 30+ points (at game 6 forward) have gone UNDER 57.7% since 1980 in games with O/U lines of 50+ points.  Take the Under.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs + the points over Denver.  The Chiefs were blown out last week, 26-9, by Tennessee.  We'll take KC at home today, as double-digit underdogs have gone 134-102 ATS since 1980.  And the Chiefs are 54-27 ATS vs. division rivals, if KC was off a SU loss.  Grab the points.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over the Minnesota Vikings.  Dan Campbell's men are 32-12 ATS vs. foes NOT off a straight-up loss.  And Detroit is also 56-32-2 ATS when playing with revenge vs. a division rival which defeated Detroit in the season's first meeting.  With Detroit, indeed, playing with revenge from a 27-24 upset loss, we'll lay the points with the Lions this afternoon.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Dallas/Washington game.  The Cowboys enter on a 3-0-1 OVER streak.  We'll look for a relatively low scoring game today, as Division games have gone UNDER 65.6% since 1980 if a team was on a 3-game (or longer) OVER streak, and the O/U line was 50+ points.  Take the Under.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over San Francisco.  The Colts are 8-6, and have lost each of their last 4 games, including an 18-16 defeat at Seattle eight days ago, as a 13-point road underdog.  The Colts are 63-39-2 ATS off a SU loss, including 35-20-1 ATS as an underdog.  Even better:  .600 (or worse) home underdogs off a SU loss have gone 259-200-14 ATS in the final three weeks of the season, including 17-10 on Monday Night Football.  Take Indianapolis + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over New England.  Baltimore has been dominant vs. winning opposition, if it was a non-division game, going 88-52-6 ATS, including 44-19-2 ATS as a favorite.  Lay the points with John Harbaugh's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Detroit/Pittsburgh game to go UNDER the total.  The Steelers will not want to get into a shootout with the high-powered Lions' offense.  And when the Steelers have been decided underdogs, their games tend to be low-scoring.  Indeed, Pittsburgh has gone 27-14 UNDER the total when installed as an underdog of 6+ points, including 6-1 UNDER when the O/U line was 48+ points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Las Vegas/Houston game.  The Raiders were shutout, 31-0, last week by the Philadelphia Eagles.  And Las Vegas is averaging just 14 ppg this season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a low-scoring game this afternoon, especially against Houston's terrific defense.  But we'll take the OVER, as the OVER falls into one of my favorite Totals systems which has cashed 64.4% since 1980.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over Atlanta.  The Cardinals are playing their final home game of the season, and they enter on a 6-game losing streak.  I love Arizona to break their skein this afternoon, as they fall into 72-40, 32-3, and 119-65 "Last Home Game" systems of mine.  In addition, the Cards are 63-36 ATS at home off back-to-back losses, including 37-13 ATS if their foe was off an ATS win.  With the Falcons in off an upset win over Tampa Bay, we'll fade the Falcons on this Sunday.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Denver/Jacksonville game.  The Broncos outlasted Green Bay last Sunday, 34-26, while the Jaguars downed the Jets, 48-20.  We'll look for the defenses to assert themselves in this game, as each team is giving up less than 21 points per game.  Additionally, NFL games have gone 56% under if one of the two teams came off a high scoring game where 68+ points were scored, and its opponent's previous game totaled 60+ points.  Take the UNDER.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Arizona/Atlanta game.  The Cardinals check into this afternoon's game off back to back SU/ATS losses to the Rams (45-17) and Texans (40-20).  We'll look for a lower-scoring game this afternoon, as NFL teams have gone 57.2% UNDER in games with O/U lines of 47+ points, if their two previous games each totaled 60+ points.  Take the Under.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Tampa Bay.  The Buccaneers have lost their last two games, and they are 0-6 ATS in their last six.  Unfortunately, I expect Tampa's winless ATS streak to reach seven games, as road favorites off back to back losses have cashed just 36.9% since 1980 in the season's final three weeks.  Take the home underdog Panthers + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the New Orleans/New York game.  The Saints have played nine of their last 10 games UNDER the total.  And the only game to go Over was their 24-20 win over Tampa Bay.  And that game only went Over by 2.5 points.  We'll look for yet another low-scoring Saints game.  Take the UNDER

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Miami.  The Bengals were blasted, 24-0, by rival, Baltimore, last Sunday, while Miami fell on Monday night, 28-15, at Pittsburgh.  Off that shutout loss, we'll take Cincy to bounce back at Miami.  Indeed, teams off shutout losses have gone 83-52-5 ATS vs. foes also off a loss, including 41-21-1 ATS on the road.  The Bengals are 20-9-2 ATS their last 31 as a road favorite, Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over the New York Jets.  The Flyboys were blown out by Miami (34-10) and Jacksonville (48-20) in their last two games, while the Saints are on a 2-game win streak, with upset wins over the Buccaneers and Panthers.  We'll ride with New Orleans, as favorites off back to back wins have cashed 68% since 1980 vs. foes off back to back losses by more than 18 points.  Take New Orleans.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Dallas/Los Angeles game.  The Cowboys have played three straight high-scoring games, and each game went Over the total.  We'll look for a lower-scoring game this afternoon as teams off 3 straight Overs where each game totaled more than 58 points, have gone UNDER 59.5% since 1980.  Take the UNDER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Cowboys are playing their final home game of the season this afternoon, and will be looking to bounce back off blowout losses to Detroit and Minnesota.  Meanwhile, the Chargers come into this game off an upset win over rival, Kansas City.  We'll fade Los Angeles, and take Dallas, as NFL teams have cashed 62.1% in their final home game of the season, if they were off back-to-back SU/ATS losses, and their opponent was off an upset win.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Last week, the Steelers went into Baltimore and pulled off an upset win over their biggest rival, the Ravens, 27-22.  We'll fade Pittsburgh at home tonight, as home teams are a soft 49-79 ATS vs. losing opposition, if our home team won outright as a 4.5-point (or greater) underdog in its previous game (including 0-5 ATS on Monday Nights).  Grab the points with Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Detroit/Los Angeles game.  These two teams played very high-scoring games last week.  The Rams routed Arizona, 45-17, while Detroit downed Dallas, 44-30.  Regular season NFL games with O/U lines of 55+ points have gone 60-45 UNDER since 1980.  Even better:  games between two teams whose previous game each totaled more than 60 points have gone 55% Under since 1980.  The UNDER also falls into a totals system of mine which is 358-251-12.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over San Francisco.  The Titans have quietly covered four of their last five games, including a 31-29 upset win at Cleveland last week.  Tennessee is now 2-11 SU and 6-7 ATS.  San Francisco comes into this game with a 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS record, on the heels of a 3-Game SU/ATS win streak, in which the 49ers won each of the three games by more than 10 points.  We'll fade the 49ers this afternoon, as teams off 3 SU/ATS wins by more than 10 points have cashed just 37% of non-division games since 1980 vs. teams with a losing SU/ATS record.  The Titans are also 8-2 ATS their last 10 vs. the 49ers.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Carolina.  When we last saw the Panthers (two weeks ago), they pulled off the season's second-biggest upset when they knocked off the Los Angeles Rams, 31-28, as a 10-point underdog (Carolina also authored the season's biggest upset, when it won as a 12.5-point underdog at Green Bay).  We'll go against Carolina this afternoon, as road teams have covered just 42% over the last 46 years off a SU win as a double-digit underdog.  Take New Orleans + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Los Angeles.  These two teams met in Week 1, and the Chargers defeated the Chiefs, 27-21.  We'll take KC to avenge that loss, as AFC West division teams are 125-81 ATS when playing with revenge vs. a foe with an ATS win percentage of .500 (or better), provided our revenge-minded team is not favored by more than 6 points.  Additionally, the Chiefs are 21-7 ATS at home off 3+ point spread defeats, provided their win percentage was greater than .333.  Finally, the Chargers upset the Eagles last Monday, 22-19, in Overtime.  But teams off wins over defending Super Bowl Champs as an underdog (or PK) have stumbled on the division road the following game, going 8-28 ATS since 1980, including 3-19 ATS as an underdog.  Take the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the New York Giants/Washington Commanders game.  This NFC East division rivalry has seen the UNDER go 33-17-2 in the last 52 meetings, including 10-1 UNDER when the O/U line was greater than 45 points.  And when the game was in New York, the UNDER has gone 20-4-1, including 9-0-1 UNDER in the 2nd half of the season.  The UNDER also falls into a 166-116-7 Totals system of mine.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Jacksonville.  Last week, the Jaguars upset their division rival, Indianapolis, 36-19, as a 2.5-point home underdog.  Jacksonville is back home this week, and laying double-digits to the Jets.  We'll fade the Jaguars, as home favorites of more than 4 points have cashed just 37% since 1980 off an upset home win.  Take New York.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Houston.  The Chiefs have their back against the wall, as they're 6-6 with four games remaining.  So, this is a 'must-win' game for the defending AFC Champs.  Kansas City is on a 4-game ATS losing streak.  But it's a super 21-6 ATS at home off three (or more) ATS losses, when it's owned a win percentage greater than 0.350, including 14-1 ATS when favored off a SU/ATS loss.  Houston comes into this Sunday night game off an upset win at division rival, Indianapolis.  However, the Texans are a terrible 9-16-2 ATS off a division upset win.  Take Kansas City.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.  

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Chicago.  The Packers have always had a good home field advantage at Lambeau Field.  But it's at its strongest late in the year when the weather turns.  And Green Bay has been especially good at home in its last 3 regular season games when favored vs. foes off a SU win, as it's gone 47-8 SU and 38-14-3 ATS, including 19-1 SU and 16-2-2 ATS vs. .555 (or better) opponents, and 23-1 SU and 19-2-3 ATS when priced from -5 to -10.5 points.  Green Bay is 29-6 SU and 26-9 ATS vs. the Bears in the last 35 meetings.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over Arizona.  Last week, the Rams were stunned, 31-28, by the Carolina Panthers.  And Los Angeles was a 10-point road favorite in that game.  We'll lay the points this afternoon, as road favorites have cashed 78% since 1980 after being upset as a double-digit road favorite.  Take the Rams.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Minnesota/Washington game.  The Vikings have gone UNDER in four straight, on the heels of an offense which has scored 19, 17, 6 and 0 in the Vikings' last four games.  We'll look for a bounce today, and take the OVER, as teams have gone OVER after 3+ UNDERS if they scored less than 30 points across their three previous games.  The OVER also falls into a 177-125 Totals system of mine.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over Cincinnati.  The Bengals pulled off a big upset on Thanksgiving night when they blew out Baltimore, 32-14.  Unfortunately, road teams have cashed just 22 of 56 following a win on Thanksgiving.  And Buffalo is 30-13-1 ATS in home games with point spreads of 7 or less points, if its opponent was off an upset win.  Finally, winning teams have gone 175-135 ATS as a home favorite vs. foes off double-digit upset wins.  Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Ravens stumbled on Thanksgiving, with a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.  The good news for John Harbaugh's men is that they're 13-5 ATS off an upset loss, including 9-0-1 ATS vs. .500 (or better) teams like Pittsburgh.  For years, this was a tightly-contested series with 29 of 37 games being decided by 7 or less points.  But that started to change last year, with the Ravens winning the two most recent meetings by scores of 34-17 and 28-14.  Lay the points with Baltimore.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Jacksonville.  The Colts lost to Houston last week, and are tied with the Jaguars at 8-4, atop the AFC South division.  Indy is an eye-popping 62-38-2 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 9-0 ATS off an upset division defeat.  Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over Cleveland.  Last week, the Titans scored a field goal on their opening possession, and never scored again, en route to a 25-3 loss to Houston.  It's true that the Titans have been a poor point spread team, going just 5-7 ATS this year (and 15-37-1 ATS their last 53).  But they're 4-0-1 ATS after scoring less than 6 points.  And the Browns have burned money as a favorite, going 34-54-4 ATS their last 92, including 11-32-1 ATS vs. foes with a losing ATS record.  Take Tennessee.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Dallas/Detroit game.  Both the Cowboys and Lions enter off high-scoring Thanksgiving Day games.  Detroit lost to Green Bay, 31-24, while Dallas upended Kansas City, 31-28.  We'll look for a lower-scoring game tonight, as Thursday Night games have gone UNDER 62% if both teams' previous game totaled 55+ points.  Additionally, the Under falls into a 358-250 Totals system of mine.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. 

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over Dallas.  The Lions have been an ATM machine since Dan Campbell arrived in Motown, and they're especially good when playing an opponent which is not off a loss.  In that situation, the Lions have gone 30-6 ATS so long as the Lions weren't favored by more than 7 points.  And if Detroit lost its previous game, then our 30-6 ATS stat zooms to 10-0 ATS.  With Detroit, indeed, off a loss last week to Green Bay, we'll lay the wood with the Lions on Thursday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over Denver.  Both of these teams had last week off.  Two Sundays ago, the Commanders lost in overtime to the Dolphins, while the Broncos upset the Kansas City Chiefs.  We'll fade Denver, as it's 0-19 ATS off a SU/ATS home win over a division rival, if it was not getting 4+ points in its current game.  That doesn't bode well for Bo Nix & Co. here.  Nor does the fact that rested home underdogs of 5+ points, with a sub-.333 win percentage, have cashed 69% since 1980.  We'll take Washington + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the under in the Arizona/Tampa Bay game.  The Cardinals come into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses.  And each of those three games went OVER the total.  One of the things I like to do is play on the UNDER when a team falls into this situation of coming off 3 high-scoring SU/ATS losses.  Certainly, when a team does that, its defense is often at the root of the problem.  And shoring it up would be a point of emphasis.  Dating back to 1980, our teams in this set have gone UNDER 58.7%, including 8-0-1 UNDER this season.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the San Francisco/Carolina game.  The 49ers come into this game off 3 straight high-scoring games.  But off that string of OVERS, we'll look for a lower-scoring game here, at home, vs. Carolina.  Indeed, San Francisco has gone UNDER 64.5% since 1980 off back-to-back Overs when the O/U line was 48+ points.  And the UNDER falls into 26-9, 132-71 and 357-250 Totals systems of mine.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Tampa Bay/Los Angeles game.  The Bucs have been installed as a big underdog tonight.  And when Tampa is a big dog, the games are generally lower-scoring, as Tampa's 19-7 UNDER when getting more than 6 points.  The UNDER falls into one of my favorite Totals systems which is 356-250-12 since 1980.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles.  These two teams met in Week 1, and the Eagles defeated Dallas, 24-20.  We'll play against Philly in this re-match, as defending Super Bowl champs are a soft 41-56-4 ATS when playing a revenge-minded division foe it defeated in the season's first meeting.  Moreover, in NFC East division games, underdogs with a losing record have gone 92-65 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take the Cowboys.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Arizona/Jacksonville game.  The Cardinals have played back-to-back high scoring games.  They lost to the 49ers last week, 41-22, and the previous game was a 44-22 defeat at Seattle.  We'll take the UNDER, as teams have gone Under 59.3% after back-to-back games that totaled 63+ points, including 63.6% if the O/U line was 48 points or less.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over Jacksonville.  The Jaguars pulled off an upset win last week when they blew out the Chargers, 35-6.  We'll fade the Jaguars on the road today, as favorites -5 (or less) points are 0-11 ATS following an upset win by more than 28 points.  Additionally, the Cardinals are 37-12 ATS at home off back to back losses when playing an opponent off an ATS win.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over Seattle.  The Titans are catching double-digits at home this afternoon.  Long-term, double-digit home dogs have gone 131-102-2 ATS since 1980, including 76-48-2 ATS in non-division games.  We'll take the Titans + the points.

At 1:00 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Indianapolis.  The Colts have the league's #1 offense, as they average 32.1 ppg.  The Chiefs rank #9, and score 6.7 ppg less than the Colts.  But Andy Reid's Chiefs have dominated opponents with superior offenses, as KC has gone 19-2-1 ATS vs. foes that score at least 4.9 ppg more than the Chiefs (including 9-0-1 ATS as a favorite).  Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over New England.  Cincinnati is a solid 51-29-1 ATS when priced from +2.5 to +10 points, including 11-1 ATS its last 12 when playing a non-division foe off a SU win.  It's true that the Patriots are 5-0 SU on the road this season.  But those five wins have been by 6, 3, 6, 18, and 5 points.  And their only win by more than 6 points came against (arguably) the worst team in the League (Tennessee).  Take Cincy + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Cincinnati/New England game.  The Bengals are allowing 33.4 ppg this season.  We'll look for this game to go UNDER the total, as teams with poor defenses that allow 33.4+ ppg have gone 45-25 UNDER in non-division games.  And the UNDER also falls into a 313-227 Totals system of mine.  Take the UNDER.