Cappers Sports Picks

At 8:30 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the UNDER in the San Antonio Spurs/New York Knicks game.  These two teams have played six halves of basketball, and five out of those six halves went for 108 points or less.  The only half where the two teams combined for more than 108 was the first half of Game 3, where 121 points were scored.  Otherwise, the other five halves saw 103, 97, 108, 101, and 105 points scored.  Two of the first three games in this series have gone UNDER the total.  And we'll look for another low-scoring game on Wednesday, as the Knicks are 41-22 UNDER when they lead in a Playoff series.  Take Game 4 UNDER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over the New York Knicks.  These two teams have now played five games this season.  All but one of those five games have gone down to the wire, with the teams separated by three points (or less) with less than four minutes to play.  In a series where the margins are razor-thin, we'll take the points with the Spurs as an underdog.  San Antonio is 13-9 SU and 14-8 ATS as an underdog this season.  And it is 28-14 ATS off a point spread loss, including 6-1 SU/ATS as an underdog.  Finally, Road teams are a super 11-1 ATS in the NBA Finals when priced from PK to +3.5 off an upset loss.  Take San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over New York.  The Spurs lost Game 1, 105-95, and now trail 1-game-to-none in this NBA Finals.  That was San Antonio's 2nd straight loss to the Knicks, dating back to its 25-point loss on March 1.  I look for the Spurs to bounce back in Game 2, as they're 50-24 ATS when playing with double-revenge vs. .580 (or better) foes.  Additionally, San Antone is 116-78 ATS at home off an upset loss, including 8-0 ATS in 2026.  And .666 (or better) teams have cashed 70% in the NBA Finals after dropping Game 1.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over New York.  The Knicks bring an 11-game win streak into this NBA Finals, including a 130-93 blowout win over Cleveland to close out the Eastern Conference Finals.  We'll fade New York, as NBA teams off 5+ wins, including a win by more than 25 points in their previous game, have burned money, going 42-71 ATS.  Even worse:  the Eastern Conference has gone 3-13 ATS on the road in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.  Admittedly, the Knicks blew out the Spurs at Madison Square Garden three months ago, 114-89.  But the Spurs are a super 51-31 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss by more than 21 points.  Take San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over the San Antonio Spurs.  This series between (arguably) the two best teams in the league has been somewhat predictable.  And what I mean by "predictable" is that the two teams have largely bounced back strong after a defeat.  Indeed, the team off a loss has covered the point spread in four of five games thus far (the lone exception being Game 3, when San Antonio failed to get the job done after losing Game 2).  And this series trend is consistent with the behaviors of the two teams.  San Antonio is now 13-1 SU/ATS off a loss since January 15.  And Oklahoma City's 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS its last 10 in the Playoffs following a straight-up loss (and 12-3 ATS its last 15 Playoff games off a SU loss).  Since 1990, defending champs have cashed 67% in the Playoffs after failing to cover the spread by more than 23 points.  Take OKC to get the $$$ in Game 7.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Spurs are off a 13-point defeat in Game 5.  But San Antonio is 12-1 SU/ATS off a loss, dating back to January 15.  And it's also 35-18 ATS at home when playing with revenge.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 4-12 ATS the past 2 seasons on the road in the Playoffs, including 0-7 ATS if it covered the point spread in its previous game by more than 3 points.  Lay the points with the Spurs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over San Antonio.  The Thunder were throttled in Game 4, 103-82.  We'll take the Champs to bounce back, as they've gone 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS their last 14 playoff games off a SU loss, including 6-0 ATS at home.  Even better:  when matched-up against .611 (or better) foes, OKC is 32-9 ATS off a loss if its foe is off a win.  Finally, defending champs are a solid 23-13 ATS when locked in a Playoff series tied at 2-games apiece, including a perfect 5-0 ATS off a double-digit loss.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over New York.  The Cavs are down 3-games-to-none.  And while no teams down 3-0 have come back to win four straight games, that doesn't mean that they can't get off the mat to win a single game.  And home underdogs (or PK), down 3-0, that own a .544 (or better) win percentage, have actually done quite well, going 26-12-3 ATS, including 7-1 ATS since 2022.  Take Cleveland + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the OVER in the Cleveland Cavaliers/New York Knicks game.  The Knicks have averaged 122.2 ppg in their 10-game win streak, and six of the 10 have sailed Over the total (by an average of 6.95 ppg).  This will be the 7th game these two games have played against one another this season, and four of the previous six have gone OVER.  The OVER falls into a 62-37 Totals system of mine.  Take Game 4 OVER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Spurs were upset by the Thunder in Game 3, and now trail 2-games-to-1 in this Western Conference Final.  San Antonio is 115-78 ATS at home off an upset loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS in 2026.  And the Thunder are 10-26 ATS in the Playoffs following a double-digit win, and back-to-back wins, overall.  We'll take the Spurs to level this series, as home teams off a loss in Game 3, and down 2-games-to-1, are 39-22 ATS if the point spread was less than 5 points.  Take San Antone.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder to go UNDER the total.  The Spurs were upset by OKC, 123-108, on Friday.  Dating back to mid-November, San Antonio is 16-7 UNDER the total its last 23 off a loss, while OKC is 4-0 UNDER its last four (and 19-13 UNDER its last 32) playoff games off an upset win.  And Game 4s are 94-71-3 UNDER the total when the favorite is trailing 2-games-to-1 in the series.   Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8:00 pm, on Saturday, in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over New York.  The Cavs squandered a 22-point lead in Game 1, and lost by 11 in overtime.  Game 2 was even worse, as they fell by 16 points.  We'll take Cleveland as a home favorite in Game 3, as home faves have cashed 61.6% since 1990 off back-to-back SU/ATS losses to start a series.  The Knicks have been a better home team this season, as they've covered the point spread at home by 4.11 ppg, which is 2.42 ppg better than their road performance.  Cleveland is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS at home in the Playoffs this season, while the Cavs are 2-7 SU/ATS on the road this post-season.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Spurs are 37-4 SU and 29-12 ATS their last 41 games that Victor Wembanyama has played (without being injured in, or ejected from the game), including a perfect 7-0 ATS off a SU loss.  And they've covered the spread by an average of 6.31 ppg.  The Thunder took advantage of the referee assignment in Game 2, as Tony Brothers is known for not blowing the whistle, and letting the players be more physical.  In this respect, if you give OKC an inch, it will take a mile, and Isaiah Hartenstein grabbed and held Victor Wembanyama as much as possible.  That strategy won't be as successful tonight with a different crew of officials.  Look for Wemby to lead the Spurs to a Game 3 victory.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:30 pm, on Friday, our 5* NBA Total of the Year is on the UNDER in the San Antonio/Oklahoma City game.  Both the Spurs and Thunder suffered significant injuries in Game 2.  The Spurs' 4th-leading scorer, Dylan Harper (14.4 ppg) left the game with soreness in his right adductor, and is questionable for Friday's Game 3.  Likewise, Oklahoma City's 2nd-leading scorer, Jalen Williams (17.8 ppg), re-injured his left hamstring, and is also questionable to play.  San Antonio was already dealing with another major injury, as its 3rd-leading scorer, De'Aaron Fox (18.8 ppg) missed the first two games with a high ankle sprain.  This is a lot of offensive firepower that will be either sidelined, or not at full strength.  Additionally, for technical support, in the NBA Conference Finals, series that are tied at 1-game apiece have gone UNDER 64% since 1990.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the New York Knicks/Cleveland Cavaliers game.  Game 1 was earmarked for an Under until overtime happened, which resulted in it going over the total by a single point.  Still, only 202 points were scored in regulation.  I expect Cleveland to make defensive adjustments for this Game 2, and not allow James Harden to be targeted by Jalen Brunson as it did in the last game.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 2 between Oklahoma City and San Antonio.  San Antonio won Game 1, 122-115.  However, the first game would have gone Under the total but for the 2 overtime sessions, as only 202 points were scored in regulation.  And we'll look for a low-scoring game here, in Game 2, as the UNDER has cashed 69.5% if Game 1 went Over, and the two teams combined for more than 225 points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over San Antonio.  OKC dropped Game 1 at home to the Spurs, and finds itself with its back against the wall for this Game 2.  The Thunder actually had a higher quality of shots than did the Spurs in Game 1, but just missed a lot of wide open looks.  I expect that to change in tonight's game.  The Thunder are 44-22 ATS at home off a point spread defeat when playing with double-revenge.  And they're 31-9 ATS vs. .611 (or better) foes if they're off a SU loss, and their opponent is off a SU win.  OKC is 10-3 ATS its last 13 in the Playoffs off a SU loss, while the Spurs are 3-8 ATS this season off an upset win (and 3-20 ATS off an upset win their last 23 when priced from +7.5 to -1.5 points).  Take the Thunder.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over Cleveland.  These two teams met three times in the regular season.  New York won the first two games, which were both at Madison Square Garden.  Then, in February, Cleveland won at home by 15 points.  The Knicks are playing their best basketball of the season, and swept the 76ers, which afforded them 7 more days of rest than the Cavaliers.  Even better, the Cavaliers' upset win over the #1-seeded Pistons afforded the Knicks home court advantage, so the rested Knicks didn't have to travel yesterday.  We'll fade Cleveland, as teams off a double-digit Game 7 win have cashed just 40.3% over the last 36 seasons.  And the Knicks are 43-23 ATS as a revenge-minded, single-digit favorite.  Finally, the Knicks fall into 40-11 and 12-0 ATS playoff systems of mine.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the San Antonio/Oklahoma City game.  Both of these teams are averaging north of 115 points in the post-season.  OKC's offensive average is 121.5 ppg, while San Antone's average is 116.9 ppg.  But the Thunder played the Suns and Lakers, who ranked #10 and #20 in defensive rating, while the Spurs played the Trail Blazers and Timberwolves, who ranked #13 and #8 in defensive rating.  Both teams will find the offensive sledding much rougher in this series since OKC (#1) and the Spurs (#3) rank among the three best defensive teams in the league.  Three of the five games went UNDER the total in their regular season match-ups, and the five games went UNDER by an average of 7.8 ppg.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over San Antonio.  The Thunder have opened the Playoffs with eight straight wins.  And NBA teams on 8-game (or better) win streaks have gone 87-68-4 ATS in the Playoffs, including 69-52-3 ATS as a favorite.  And while it's true that the Spurs have won four of five meetings vs. the Thunder this season, including a double-digit win in the last meeting, home teams have gone 59-35 ATS in Game 1 of a Playoff series their last 94 when playing with revenge (including 9-1 ATS their last 10 if they were the defending champion).  Lay the points with Oklahoma City.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Detroit.  For a long time, Game 7s would tend to be won by the home team -- both SU and ATS.  For example, from April 1991 thru April 28, 2018, home teams were 54-15 SU and 41-26-2 ATS.  But the tide has changed, and road teams have gone 13-12 SU and 16-9 ATS since.  We played on Detroit in Game 6, and got the $$$ in a 115-94 blowout win.  Unfortunately, the Pistons are 15-41-1 ATS off an 8-point (or greater) win, when matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS loss, including 5-20 ATS at home.  And the Cavaliers are 9-2 ATS as underdogs after failing to cover the spread by 10+ points.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.  

At 8 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 7 between Detroit and Cleveland.  Game 6 squeaked under the total of 209.5 by a half-point, and Game 5 would also have gone under, but for the overtime session, in which 24 points were scored.  We'll look for the Under to cash in Game 7, as teams have gone 61.8% Under in the Playoffs since 1990 off a home upset loss, if they were facing elimination on the road.  Also, 16 of the last 22 meetings between these division rivals have gone Under.  Take the Cavaliers and Pistons Under in Game 7 on Sunday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Cleveland.  The Pistons coughed up a 15-point lead, and lost in overtime to the Cavaliers to fall into a 3-games-to-2 hole in this series.  And that was the 3rd straight loss by Detroit after sprinting out to a 2-games-to-none lead to start the series.  We'll take Detroit to bounce back on Friday, as Cleveland is a wallet-busting 59-98-2 ATS vs. foes off back-to-back SU/ATS losses.  And Detroit is a solid 41-29 ATS off an upset loss.  Finally, teams off upset losses have cashed 64.7% when facing elimination.  Grab the points with the Pistons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Minnesota.  The Wolves upset the Spurs in Game 4 to level the series at 2-games-apiece.  We'll take San Antonio to bounce back here, at home, in Game 5.  San Antonio is 52-26 ATS in tied playoff series when San Antonio has owned the better W/L record, including 24-4 ATS if its opponent was off an upset playoff win.  That bodes well for the Silver and Black.  As does the fact that Minnesota is a miserable 12-31 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes after Minnesota covered by more than 8 points in its previous game.  Lay the points with San Antone.  Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over Detroit.  We played on Cleveland in Game 3, and got the $ with a 116-109 win.  That victory was the 3rd straight SU/ATS win by the home team in this playoff series (and 4th straight, overall, dating back to the regular season).  We'll look for the home team to win once again in this Game 4, as Cleveland falls into a very good 51-18 ATS system of mine.  Additionally, teams seeded 4th (or better) have gone 123-92 ATS when down 2-games-to-1 in a playoff series.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Philadelphia 76ers/New York Knicks game.  After scoring 126, 140 and 137 across three Playoff games (all of which went OVER the total), the Knicks' offense scored 108 in back-to-back games (each of which went Under the total).  I look for a higher-scoring game in this Game 4, as the Knicks are 27-18-1 OVER the total following back-to-back unders (including 5-2 in the Playoffs).  And the OVER also falls into 60-37 and 37-20 Totals systems of mine.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers + the points over the New York Knicks.  The Sixers were upset in Game 3, 108-94, and are now in a massive 3-0 hole in this 7-game series.  For this game, Philly's been installed as a home underdog.  And we'll happily grab the points, as home underdogs (or PK) off upset losses in Game 3, and down 3-games-to-none in a series, have cashed 65% since 1990.  Take Philadelphia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 3 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over Detroit.  The Cavs lost back-to-back 10-point games in Detroit to start this quarterfinal series.  We'll back Cleveland on Saturday afternoon, as home teams seeded #4 (or worse) are 64.2% ATS since 1990 in the Playoffs vs. #1 seeds, if our home team was down 2-games-to-none, and not getting more than 4 points.  That bodes well for Cleveland, as does the fact that Detroit is a dreadful 13-38 ATS off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers + the points over Oklahoma City.  The Lakers lost Game 1 by 18 points, and that was the 5th straight SU/ATS loss this season suffered by Los Angeles vs. OKC.  And the average margin of defeat was 27 points.  Still, we'll fade OKC tonight, as it's an atrocious 28-68 ATS off back-to-back wins, if it was playing a .500 (or better) revenge-minded foe off a SU loss.  Even worse:  the Thunder are 8-25 ATS in the Playoffs following back to back wins, if the previous triumph was by double-digits.  And defending champs are 2-16 ATS in Game 2 of a Playoff series when laying more than 10 points.  Take the Lakers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 9:30 pm, our NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Game of the Year is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Minnesota.  San Antonio was upset as a 10.5-point favorite in Game 1, 104-102, by the 6th-seeded Timberwolves.  The Wolves, unfortunately, are a woeful 12-30 ATS on the road vs. .500 (or better) teams if the Wolves covered their previous game by more than 8 points.  Moreover, The Spurs are 54-21-2 ATS off a straight-up home loss, if the Spurs were favored by 8+ points in that defeat (including 20-4 ATS when playing with revenge).  With .740 (or better) home favorites of less than 11 points going 25-3 ATS off upset losses as double-digit favorites, we'll lay the points with the Spurs on Wednesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Philadelphia/New York game.  After New York scored the most regulation points (137) in a Game 1 Playoff win since 1990, we'll look for a MUCH lower scoring game in Game 2.  Indeed, NBA Playoff Game 2s have gone 30-14 UNDER the total after more than 225 points was scored in Game 1.  Additionally, the Knicks are 37-18 UNDER when they lead in a Playoff series.  And the UNDER also falls into a 70.1% Totals system of mine.  Take the UNDER.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers + the points over New York.  The Knicks blew out Philly, 137-98, in Game 1.  We'll take the Sixers to bounce back, as teams that lose Game 1 by more than 20 points have covered 56% in Game 2 since 1990 (including a perfect 7-0 ATS in the 2nd Round of the Playoffs the previous 10 years).  Grab the points with the 76ers.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Oklahoma City/Los Angeles Lakers game.  The Thunder have had the league's best defense the past 2 seasons, and they've gone UNDER in Game 1 six of seven times.  Overall, in the Playoffs, the Thunder are 26-17 UNDER their last 43.  Likewise, the Lakers tend to go UNDER in Game 1 of a Playoff series (25-12-1 UNDER their last 38, including 4-0 UNDER the last three seasons), and have also gone UNDER in 14 of their last 19 playoff games.  Six of the last nine meetings between these teams have gone UNDER the total.  Finally, the UNDER falls into a Playoff totals system of mine which has cashed 69.6% since 1990.  Take the UNDER.  As always, good luck, Al McMordie. 

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Philadelphia/New York game.  These two teams have gone UNDER the total in 11 of the last 18 meetings, and that's the way we'll look for this Game 1.  The Knicks come into this game off back to back blowout wins by 29+ points over Atlanta.  And both games went over the total by more than 8 points.  But NBA Playoff games are 40-15 UNDER after a team went over the total by more than 8 points in each of its previous two games.  Additionally, the Knicks have gone UNDER in 20 of their last 33 home games, and 23 of their last 35 home playoff games, while Philly is riding a 21-10 UNDER streak.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over Toronto.  These two teams have each won 3 games on their home floor, and Game 7 will be played in Ohio.  Advantage:  Cavaliers.  Additionally, home favorites of more than 3 points are 46-29-2 ATS in Game 7s, including 9-2 ATS their last 11 if they lost Game 6 by single-digits.  And Toronto is 1-16 SU and 3-13-1 ATS when getting 7+ points from Cleveland, including 1-7-1 ATS in the Playoffs.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.  

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Detroit/Orlando game.  Thirteen of the last 20 games between these teams have gone Under the total, including four of the six Playoff games.  And the last game was the lowest-scoring of all, as Detroit and Orlando combined for just 172 points, which went under the total by 38.5 points.  NBA Playoff games have gone Under the total 62.8% since 1990 if the previous playoff game went under by more than 36 points.  Take Detroit + Orlando UNDER.

At 7:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Philadelphia 76ers.  Boston held a 3-games-to-1 series lead, but suffered upset losses in the last two games.  We'll take Boston to bounce back and blow out Philly in this Game 7, as Boston is 21-2-1 ATS when favored by 2+ points off back-to-back upset losses.  Even better:  the Celtics are 64-31 ATS after failing to cover the spread by 10+ points, if they were playing with double-revenge.  And Philly is a poor 39-61 ATS as a road underdog of more than 4 points vs. winning opposition.  Since 1990, home teams favored by more than 3 points, with a win percentage differential of +0.033, have cashed 61.4% in the final game of tied playoff series.  And home teams have cashed 75% of Game 7s in the 1st Round off an upset loss in Game 6.  Lay the points with the Celtics.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Boston/Philadelphia game.  Boston comes into this game off back-to-back upset losses.  We'll look for a lower-scoring Game 7, as NBA teams off back-to-back upset losses have gone 76-49 UNDER in the Playoffs.  And Game 7s are 21-8 UNDER their last 29 if the O/U line was greater than 196 points.  Eight of the last nine meetings between these division rivals have gone UNDER the total.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Los Angeles/Houston game.  These two teams mustered just 192 points in Game 5, which sailed under the total of 209 by 17 points.  And that was the 19th time of the last 32 meetings between these clubs that the Under has cashed.  We'll look for another low-scoring game here, in Game 6, as the Under falls into 106-61 and 83-49 Totals systems of mine.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers + the points over the Houston Rockets.  Houston won Game 5 on the road to pull within 3-games-to-2 in this series.  Unfortunately, home teams down 3-games-to-2, and off a win in Game 5, are a wallet-breaking 8-21 ATS, including 3-10 ATS in Round 1.  The Rockets are 4-8 ATS this season off back-to-back SU/ATS wins, including 1-5 ATS at home.  Grab the points with Los Angeles.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers to go UNDER the total.  The Celtics were upset as a 10-point home favorite on Tuesday, 113-97.  Since 1990, NBA teams have gone 65.7% UNDER after getting upset as a double-digit favorite.  And the Celtics have gone 15-3 UNDER the total their last 18 playoff games following an upset defeat at home.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Philadelphia 76ers.  Boston lost Game 5 at home, 113-97, as a 10-point favorite.  The Celtics are favored in Philly for Game 6, and we'll lay the points.  Boston is 95-55-1 ATS on the road off a home loss by more than 7 points.  And Top 3 seeds are 9-0 ATS in Game 6 of the first round of the playoffs when they're up 3-games-to-2.  Lay the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over the Toronto Raptors.  The #4-seeded Cavaliers lost both games north-of-the-border to Toronto, and this series is now tied at 2-games-apiece.  That home sweep by the Raptors wasn't too much of a surprise, especially given that the Raptors are now 10-1 ATS their last 11 home games, and have covered the spread by 1.70 ppg at home for the season.  Cleveland, meanwhile, is now 3-13-1 ATS its last 17 road games, and has failed to cover the spread on the road this season by 1.08 ppg.  We'll lay the points with the homestanding Cavaliers, as home teams have cashed 61.7% in the Playoffs since 1990, if they were off back to back SU/ATS road playoff losses, and their opponent's Home point spread differential was +1.54 (or greater).  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons minus the points over the Orlando Magic.  The #1-seeded Pistons will need to win Games 5, 6 and 7 to advance to the quarterfinals.  Detroit's been installed as a huge favorite in this 'must-win' Game 5.  We'll lay the points, as home favorites have cashed 59.2% in the Playoffs since 1990 when down 3-games-to-1, and 60% in the playoffs when playing with revenge from 2 upset losses.  Orlando is also 2-16 ATS when getting more than 9 points off a SU win, if it wasn't playing with revenge.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Minnesota.  Denver won Game 1, but dropped the next three games to put itself in a 'must-win' situation for this Game 5.  We'll lay the points, as favorites of more than 4 points have cashed 65.2% in the NBA playoffs following 3+ losses.  Take Denver.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Denver/Minnesota game.  Games 3 + 4 both went under the total, and did so by extremely large margins.  Game 3 went under the total of 231.5 by 22.5 points, while Game 4 went under the total of 228.5 by 20.5 points.  We'll look for Game 5 to be again low-scoring, as five of the seven meetings this season between these two division rivals have gone UNDER the total.  And it would have been six of seven UNDERS but for their Christmas night game which needed a 50-point overtime session to make it over the total.  Additionally, favorites of more than 8 points facing elimination from the playoffs have gone 63% UNDER since 1990.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons minus the points over Orlando.  The Magic won Game 3, 113-105, as a 2-point home dog.  We'll fade the Magic tonight, as #8-seeded teams are a soft 58-74-2 ATS as underdogs in the playoffs following a SU/ATS win, including 14-27-2 ATS off an upset win by 8+ points.  Take the Pistons.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  The Rockets are down 3-games-to-none in this series, with three straight upset defeats.  We'll take Houston to bounce back in this Game 4, as home teams have gone 58-38-5 ATS in the post-season following 3 SU/ATS losses.  And the Lakers are 179-254 ATS vs. foes off back-to-back losses, if the Lakers were not off back-to-back losses.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Boston/Philadelphia game.  The first three games of this series have gone under the total.  And the UNDER has cashed 6 straight overall when these division rivals have met.  Boston is 68-49-2 UNDER the total its last 119 post-season games, while Philly has gone 65-44 UNDER its last 109 playoff games.  We'll look for yet another low-scoring game on Sunday evening.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Minnesota Timberwolves.  The Nuggets enter off back-to-back losses in Games 2 + 3.  We'll take the Nuggets in this critical Game 4, as the road team is 62-26 ATS in this rivalry, including 18-3 ATS off back-to-back losses.  Additionally, the T-Wolves are a terrible 46-82 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes they defeated by more than 8 points in the prior meeting, if both teams owned a .500 (or better) record.  Finally, #3 seeds are 63.4% ATS in the Playoffs vs. #6 seeds, if the #3 seed was off back-to-back losses.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:00 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over Atlanta.  The Knicks became just the second team to lose back-to-back playoff games by a single point when they fell, 109-108, to Atlanta in Game 3.  We'll take the Knicks to bounce back, as Atlanta is 2-17 ATS in the Playoffs if its opponent was off an upset loss.  And New York is 73-33 ATS off an upset loss, when matched up against a .500 (or better) foe.  Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Detroit/Orlando game.  Eleven of the last 16 meetings between these teams have gone UNDER the total, including the first two games of this Playoff series.  And those two games went under by wide margins -- 7.5 and 38 points.  We'll look for another low-scoring game on Saturday afternoon, as NBA Playoff games have gone UNDER 67% if the prior game in the series went under by more than 36 points.  The UNDER also falls into Playoff totals systems of mine that are 164-125 and 99-48.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Portland/San Antonio game.  These two teams have gone UNDER in all 5 meetings this season, including the first 2 games of this series.  And none have been particularly close to the O/U line, as the five games have gone UNDER by 23, 11.5, 17, 14.5 and 13.5 points.  Take the UNDER.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Portland.  The Trail Blazers leveled the series at 1-game apiece on Tuesday with an upset win at San Antonio.  We'll take the Spurs to bounce back, as they're 50-25 ATS in tied playoff series if they owned the better record, including 23-3 ATS if their foe was off an upset win.  And San Antonio is 53-21 ATS off a home defeat if they were favored by 8+ points in that loss.  Lay the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers.  Los Angeles comes into this game 3 off back to back upset wins at home.  We'll take Houston to bounce back, as the Lakers are 25-48 ATS if they upset their opponent in the previous meeting.  And #4-seeded teams, up 2-games-to-none in a playoff series, have gone 11-23 ATS, including 4-15 ATS when getting 3+ points.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Philadelphia/Boston game.  The first two games of this series have gone under the total.  And the UNDER has cashed 5 straight overall when these division rivals have met.  The Celtics are 18-8 UNDER the total off an upset loss, and we'll look for another low-scoring game here.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Philadelphia.  The Sixers stunned Boston as a double-digit underdog in Game 2.  Unfortunately for Philly, it's 41-78 ATS at home vs. revenge-minded foes if the 76ers weren't favored by 3+ points.  And Boston is 30-12 ATS its last 42 when playing with revenge, including 8-1 ATS in the post-season.  And it is 24-4 ATS in the playoffs away from home, if it failed to cover the spread in its previous game by more than 7 points, and it did not lead in the series.  Take the Celtics.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Minnesota.  The road team has dominated the Nuggets/Timberwolves series, going 62-25 ATS the last 87, including 28-6 ATS if it was off a straight-up loss.  Even better:  the Nuggets are 82-53 ATS off a SU home loss.  With Denver checking in off a 119-114 defeat at Ball Arena, we'll take it in Game 3 on Thursday.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Cleveland.  The Cavaliers won and covered the first two games of this series.  Unfortunately, Cleveland is 58-97-2 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses, including 3-9-1 ATS in the Playoffs.  We'll grab the points with Toronto on Thursday night in Game 3.

At 7 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Atlanta/New York game.  These two teams have played four straight games UNDER the total in 2026, including both playoff matches.  Although this is Atlanta's first trip to the Playoffs since 2023, it has generally been an UNDER club in the post-season, going 64-34-3 UNDER the total.  Likewise, the Knicks have generally gone UNDER the total in the post-season, with a 42-25-3 UNDER mark.  The UNDER falls into a 40-10 Totals system of mine, and we'll take Game 3 on Thursday night to go UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the New York Knicks over the Atlanta Hawks.  The Hawks stunned the Knicks at Madison Square Garden, 107-106, on Monday.  The series shifts to Atlanta for Game 3, and we'll take New York, as it's 91-45 ATS off a SU/ATS loss when playing a .500 (or better) foe with revenge from a home loss.  Additionally, the Hawks are a horrid 1-17 ATS in the Playoffs when facing a foe off an upset loss.  Take New York.

At 7 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons minus the points over Orlando.  The Magic needed to "Play-Into" the Playoffs via the Play-in Round with a win over the Charlotte Hornets.  Since the Play-In Round started in 2021, our Play-In teams have NOT done well in the first two games of a Playoff series.  And especially not if they were matched up against a foe off an upset loss, as they've gone 0-9 SU/ATS.  Detroit has been solid vs. .500+ foes following an upset loss, as Detroit's gone 40-27 ATS its last 67.  And favorites of 9+ points have gone 77-51 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back games vs. the same foe, if they were upset in the previous game.  Finally, the Magic are 1-7 ATS as an underdog if they led a Playoff series, and their opponent had yet to win a game. Lay the points with Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Los Angeles.  The #4-seeded Lakers upset Houston in Game 1, 107-98, as a home underdog.  We will fade Los Angeles in Game 2 on Tuesday, as #4 seeds have gone 41-60-4 ATS in the Playoffs following an upset win, including 13-31-1 ATS at home.  Additionally, the Lakers are a soft 99-128 ATS at home vs. revenge-minded foes.  And Houston is 37-11 ATS when playing with double-revenge, if it wasn't getting more than 4 points.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers to go UNDER the total.  Both of these teams enter off back-to-back OVERS.  We'll look for a lower-scoring game on Monday, as the 2nd game of a playoff series has gone 20-9 UNDER the total if both teams were off back to back OVERS.  Even better:  Toronto has gone 48-33-2 UNDER the total this season, including 9-1-1 UNDER its last 11 if it was on a 2-game (or longer) OVER streak.  The Raptors are 12-5 UNDER their last 17 playoff games, while Cleveland is 18-13 UNDER its last 31 playoff games.  Take the UNDER in Game 2.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Portland.   San Antone stumbled badly in its final regular season game when it was upset by Denver, 128-118, as a 9.5-point home favorite.  Victor Wembanyama, though, didn't play in that game.  And the Spurs are the league's 2nd best NBA defensive team when he's on the floor, but bottom 10 when he is not.  The Spurs are 52-21-2 ATS off a home upset loss when they were favored by 8+ points in that defeat.  That bodes well for the Silver and Black tonight.  As does the fact that the Trail Blazers are a brutal 69-107-7 ATS in the Playoffs, including 24-45-3 ATS vs. foes off a SU loss.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over the Phoenix Suns.  The Thunder will start their defense of their championship this Sunday afternoon.  And defending NBA Champs have gone 21-11-1 ATS in their initial Playoff game, including 16-6-1 ATS if their win percentage was .650 (or better).  This is a revenge game for OKC, which was blown out, 135-103, by the Suns on the final day of the regular season.  The Suns are a woeful 16-39 ATS vs. foes off upset losses, while OKC is a dominant 94-65-5 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 7-2 ATS their last nine playoff games, and 38-21-2 ATS when playing with revenge.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Denver Nuggets/Minnesota Timberwolves game.  The Nuggets come into this game off 5 straight 'OVERS,' while the T-Wolves have gone Over the total in each of their last three games.  We'll look for a lower-scoring affair in this Game 1, as playoff series have gone UNDER 64% since 1990 in the first game if each team was off 3+ Overs.  Even better:  the first game of an NBA Playoff series in Round 1 has gone UNDER 70.8% since 1990 when the two teams involved were division rivals.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over Toronto.  The Cavs have been installed as a big home favorite for this Game 1.  And home favorites of -8 (or more) points have gone 106-83-2 ATS in Game 1 of a Playoff series, including 69-53-2 ATS in Round 1.  Toronto is a terrible 2-12 SU and 2-11-1 ATS when catching more than 6 points in a Playoff game.  Lay the points with the Cavaliers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Orlando Magic over the Philadelphia 76ers.  When these two teams last met, Philly defeated the Magic by 12, in Orlando, 103-91.  We'll take the revenge-minded Magic, as Philadelphia is a putrid 40-78 ATS at home vs. revenge-minded foes, if the 76ers were NOT favored by 3+ points in the current game.  And if the Sixers won the prior meeting by 8+ points, then our 78-40-3 stat zooms to 44-15-3 ATS.  Since the Play-In Tournament started five years ago, the #7 seeds have stumbled to a 3-7 ATS mark vs. the #8 seeds.  We'll take Orlando over Philadelphia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Miami Heat and Charlotte Hornets to go UNDER the total.  The Hornets are in the post-season for the first time in 10 seasons, which ends what was the longest active playoff drought.  Miami, on the other hand has vast playoff experience.  But as the #10 seed, the Heat's backs are against the proverbial wall, as they must not only win on Wednesday night to avoid elimination, but they must also then win a 2nd game on Friday.  The Heat tend greatly to go UNDER in post-season games facing elimination, as they're 23-12-1 UNDER the total their last 36, including 6-2 UNDER their last eight.  Additionally, the Hornets were the NBA's #2 UNDER team this season, as they went 51-31 UNDER the total, including 27-14 UNDER at home (only Boston played more UNDERS, at 52-30).  And eight of the last 13 meetings between these Southeast division rivals have gone UNDER.  Take the Hornets and Heat UNDER the total on Tuesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Sacramento.  After defeated the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday, all Portland has to do to nab the #8 seed is defeat the lowly Kings.  Sacramento is a woeful 3-13 SU and 4-12 ATS on the road in the season finale, including 0-5 SU/ATS when catching double-digits.  And Portland is 35-6 SU and 26-14-1 ATS at home when laying more than 5 points.  Take the Trail Blazers.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Utah Jazz.  Since the All-Star Break, the Jazz have gone 4-21 SU and 10-15 ATS.  And three of their four wins were against other tanking teams (Grizzlies, Bucks, Wizards).  One of those "accidental" wins was on Friday, when they routed the Grizzlies, 147-101.  Memphis was on a 6-game losing streak, while the Jazz had lost their previous 10, so it was one of those games where one team was forced to win (even though it preferred to lose).  We'll lay the points tonight with the Lakers, as underdogs of 6 (or more) points have cashed just 29.2% the last 25 seasons off wins by more than 35 points.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over the Denver Nuggets.  Eight days ago, the Nuggets outlasted the Spurs, 136-134, in overtime.  And that was the 2nd straight upset win by Denver against San Antone.  The Nuggets have continued to win since that game, and enter off a 20-point blowout of OKC on Friday.  We'll fade Denver tonight, as it's a dismal 55-80 ATS on the road off a win by 9+ points.  Meanwhile, the Spurs are 756-586-22 ATS vs. foes not off a point spread defeat.  And they're 49-23 ATS when playing with double-revenge vs. .580 (or better) foes, including 32-10 ATS in the regular season.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks.  The Hawks reached their goal of avoiding the Play-in Round, and will be seeded #5 or #6, depending on today's results.  Miami will be seeded #10.  In its final home game of the season, Miami is 12-1 SU/ATS its last 13 when not laying 8+ points.  Atlanta, meanwhile, is 7-26 SU and 9-20-2 ATS in its final road game of the season.  The Hawks' top 6 rotation players are all listed as 'questionable" on the injury report, which signals Quin Snyder's intent to rest his players in this somewhat meaningless game.  We'll take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Sixers currently are in the #8 slot in the Eastern conference, and can rise as high as #6 if fortune shines on them today.  Milwaukee, meanwhile, will be going fishing after this game after a season filled with turmoil.  The Bucks have covered just six of their last 20 road games, including a 137-111 blowout loss at Detroit on Wednesday.  The 76ers have quietly gone 15-1 SU and 11-5 ATS their last 16 games when favored by more than 3 points.  Lay it.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Los Angeles.  This is a huge game for both teams, as they're locked in a battle for the #8 seed.  We'll lay the points with the Blazers, as they're 16-8-1 ATS their last 25 at home, while the Clippers are on a 1-5-1 ATS run on the road.  Additionally, in the final two games of the season, rested, home favorites have cashed 58% the past 36 seasons if they owned a .500 (or better) record, and were matched up against a foe off a SU loss.  Take Portland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Oklahoma City.  The Thunder are 3-0 vs. their division rival this season.  We'll lay the points with Denver, as .650 (or better) teams have cashed 57% at home over the last 36 seasons when playing with triple revenge.  Lay the points.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over Toronto.  New York is a solid 29-9 at home this season, and 25-13 ATS, including a 22-point win over the Raptors earlier this season.  This is Toronto's final road game of the year, and it is 0-5 SU the last five seasons in its last road game.  New York is 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS the last five meetings vs. Toronto here, at Madison Square Garden.  And they've won 12 straight vs. Toronto (9-2-1 ATS) regardless of the venue.  Lay the points.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Indiana.  Philly was defeated last night, 113-102, at Houston, while Indiana blew out Brooklyn, 123-94.  This is the 76ers' final road game of the season.  And road favorites of -10 (or more) points have cashed 56% since 1990 in their final road game of the season, including 69% off an ATS defeat.  Lay the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over Detroit.  The Hornets are a league-best 49-30-1 ATS this season, including 5-1 ATS when playing with double-revenge, and 23-12 ATS as a favorite.  With Charlotte, indeed, playing with revenge from two losses to the Pistons earlier this season, we'll lay the points with Charles Lee's men tonight.  Take the Hornets.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Cleveland.  This is the 2nd of back-to-back meetings between these teams.  Atlanta lost in Cleveland by six points on Wednesday.  We'll take the revenge-minded Hawks at home tonight, as they're 151-99-6 ATS at home vs. foes off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Lay the points.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Los Angeles.  The Lakers are injury-riddled and, as a result, on a 3-game losing streak.  Two of those three defeats were to the NBA's best team (OKC), but those two losses also sandwiched a 134-128 setback in Dallas.  And in the Mavericks' last 6 games, that is their only win, while their five losses have come by an average of 16.6 ppg.  So, yes, the Lakers need to win tonight's game to help their Playoff seeding, while Golden State is locked into the #10 seed.  And, yes, Steph Curry is questionable to play tonight.  Regardless, we'll take the Warriors.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over Oklahoma City.  The Clippers were blown out, 122-101, by OKC in the last meeting.  The good news for the Clippers is that they are 8-2 ATS their last 10 as a revenge-minded home dog.  This will be OKC's 3rd game in four nights, after blowing out the Lakers 123-87 last night.  And it's 6-10 ATS this season when playing in that scheduling situation, including 3-7 ATS when playing without rest.  Grab the points with the Clippers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Portland.  San Antonio is laying a short price at home tonight, as Victor Wembanyama suffered a rib contusion on Monday, and will be held out of this game.  Luke Kornet will get the start at center for San Antone.  The Spurs were upset at home by Portland, 115-110, in the prior meeting.  We'll take San Antonio tonight, as it's 31-16 ATS at home when playing with revenge.  Lay it.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons minus the points over Milwaukee.  The Bucks lost last night (their 17th loss in 22 games), and this will be their 3rd game in four nights.  Milwaukee is 8-14 ATS its last 22, and is a miserable 57-88 ATS when installed as an underdog of more than 2 points, including 39-63 ATS on the road.  The Pistons have cashed 62% since 1990 as double-digit favorites vs. unrested foes.  Lay the points with Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over Minnesota.  We played on the Timberwolves last night, but will fade them on the road in Orlando this evening.  Minnesota has guaranteed itself a top-6 seed, so it will avoid the play-in round, while the Magic are still battling for seeding within the play-in round.  After a 2-8 slide, the Magic have rebounded with three straight wins, including their best game in four weeks when they smashed Detroit, 123-107, as a 1.5-point home dog.  We'll ride the momentum, as Orlando is 7-4 ATS this season after covering by double-digits, and 18-6 ATS the last three seasons as a favorite of 12 or less points after covering by double-digits.  Lay the points.

At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Brooklyn.  When these teams last met, the Nets massacred Milwaukee, 127-82.  With revenge from that 45-point beatdown, we'll take the Bucks tonight.  Indeed, over the last 36 seasons, road favorites have cashed 64% when playing with revenge from a loss by 33+ points.  And the Bucks are 40-24 ATS when favored in the regular season, and playing with revenge from a loss by 15+ points.  Take Milwaukee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves minus the points over the Indiana Pacers.  The T-Wolves were blown out at home, 122-108, on Sunday by Charlotte.  And that was Minnesota's 3rd straight defeat, overall.  We'll lay the points tonight with the T-Wolves, as rested, road favorites off 2+ losses are 442-365 ATS since 1990 vs. foes off a SU loss.  Take Minnesota.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:50 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Michigan/Connecticut game.  Before the start of the season, I made my annual Futures prediction, and tabbed the Wolverines (at 20-1 odds) to win the National Championship.  But rather side with U-M or UConn in this Title game, I'm going to look at the Over/Under.  Both the Wolverines and Huskies played a majority of their games UNDER the total this season, and that's the way we will look on this Monday.  This is Dan Hurley's eighth season in Storrs, and his teams have played 37 post-season games.  They've gone 26-11 UNDER the total in those 37 games, including 8-0 UNDER when priced from 142 to 149.  The last thing that Connecticut will want to do is get involved in a run-and-gun game with Michigan.  UConn will need to slow down the tempo, and deliberately run its offense, if it is to have a chance at pulling an upset.  Indeed, in Michigan's games this season where it scored 81 points (or less), it went 9-2 SU and 0-11 ATS; when Michigan scored 82+ points, it was 27-1 SU and 19-8-1 ATS.  Slowing down the Wolverines is critical for any team to have an opportunity to pull an upset.  And, given how UConn came back from 19 points down to stun Duke in the Elite Eight round, Dan Hurley won't abandon this strategy if the first half doesn't necessarily go well.  Take the Wolves and Huskies UNDER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Sacramento.  When these two teams met last month, the Kings upset the Clippers, 118-109, as a 14-point underdog.  We'll take the revenge-minded Clippers tonight, as road favorites have cashed 61% when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a 12-point (or greater) favorite.  Even better:  the Clippers are 9-5 ATS at Sacramento, including 5-1 ATS off a SU loss.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, in the NIT Tournament, on ESPN2-TV, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers and Tulsa Golden Hurricane to go UNDER the total.  Tulsa's games this season have averaged 158.21 ppg, and have gone Over the total by an average of 4.2 ppg.  Similarly, Auburn's games have averaged 161.27 ppg, and have gone Over the total by an average of 3.6 ppg.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a high-scoring game here, but NIT Tourney games have gone Under 75% of the time if the two teams, on average, went Over the total by 2.97 (or more) ppg.  Additionally, the UNDER falls into an 82% Totals system of mine.  Take the Tigers and Golden Hurricane UNDER the total.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves over Charlotte.  The T-Wolves have been installed as a home underdog vs. Charlotte tonight.  And we'll happily grab the points, as Minny is 23-7-1 ATS its last 31 as a home dog, including 10-2-1 ATS off a SU loss.  The T-Wolves have won the last 3 meetings vs. the Hornets by 21, 15 and 17 points.  Take Minnesota to rout the Hornets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, in the Crown Tournament on FOX-TV, our selection is on the OVER in the West Virginia/Oklahoma game.  The Mountaineers ended the season on a 16-4 Under run.  And, going into this Crown Tournament, their games averaged 133.93 ppg.  But their two games vs. Stanford and Creighton were extremely high-scoring.  WVU defeated Stanford, 82-77, and that game went Over the total by 23 points.  Likewise, the Mountaineers' game vs. Creighton sailed over by 19 points.  We'll look for yet another high-scoring game this evening vs. Oklahoma, which is 15-11 Over its last 26.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.  

At 8:45 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines and Arizona Wildcats to go UNDER the total.  These are the top two defensive teams in the country, as Michigan ranks #1 and Arizona #2 in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defensive efficiency metric (which is not surprising given each team's positional length).  Michigan played two other teams (Duke, Nebraska) this season that ranked among the top 10 in defensive efficiency, and those two games averaged 139 points.  Meanwhile, Arizona played seven games this season vs teams ranked among the top 10 in defensive efficiency, and those seven games averaged 152.7 ppg.  So, while Michigan's games this season averaged 157.28 ppg, overall, and Arizona's games averaged 155.31 ppg, both averages were lower against great defensive teams.  And neither faced a defense this season as good as it will see on Saturday night.  Throw in the fact that NCAA Tournament games with O/U lines of 141+ points have gone UNDER the total 61.1% at the Sweet 16 round forward, and we'll look for a relatively low-scoring, defensive battle between these two juggernauts.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Connecticut/Illinois game.  The Illini have the best offense in the country, as they rank #1 in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted offensive efficiency metric.  And Illinois' games average 152.5 ppg.  This is a very low O/U line for Illinois, as it's the 2nd lowest number for any Illini game this season.  And when Illinois has played in a game with an O/U line of less than 147 points, it has gone 5-2 OVER the total.  UConn, meanwhile, has gone OVER the total in nine of its last 15 games with O/U lines of 144 (or less).  Admittedly, the Illini come into this game off three straight UNDERS vs. VCU, Houston and Iowa.  But those three opponents were all on big UNDER runs.  VCU played 13 of its last 18 games UNDER the total; Houston played 17 of its last 25 games UNDER the total; and Iowa played eight of its last 13 UNDER.  Conversely, UConn enters on a 12-7 OVER run.  Finally, NCAA Tourney games with O/U lines of 140 (or less) have gone OVER the total 80% at the Elite Eight round forward, if a team entered off Unders in its three previous NCAA Tournament games.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Bluejays over West Virginia.  This is Creighton head coach, Greg McDermott's final season at the helm, and his players no doubt want to send him out on a winning note.  They won the first game in this 8-team tournament, 82-69, vs. Rutgers.  And they'll take on West Virginia this afternoon.  The Mountaineers got by Stanford, 82-77, in Round 1.  Unfortunately, WVU is 20-40 ATS off a straight-up win, including 0-6 SU/ATS their last six.  That doesn't bode well for WVU.  Nor does the fact that the Bluejays are 19-12 ATS their last 31 post-season games, while the Mountaineers are 18-27 ATS their last 45 post-season games.  Take Creighton.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards + the points over the Miami Heat.  When these two teams last met, it was an historic night, as Bam Adebayo recorded the 2nd-highest point total (83) in a game, bested only by Wilt Chamberlain's 100.  Miami won that game, 150-129.  We'll take the Wizards as a big underdog in this re-match, as revenge-minded NBA underdogs are 65.8% ATS since 1990 if they allowed more than 144 points in the prior meeting.  Grab the points with Washington.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears over the Oklahoma Sooners.  The Sooners were favored by 9 points in their opening round game vs. Colorado in this Crown Tournament, and they failed to cover the spread, winning by just four points.  And that moved Oklahoma's record as a favorite to a dismal 34-53-1 ATS their last 88.  They are once again installed as a favorite (albeit a small one) here, vs. Baylor.  The Sooners are also a poor 4-12-1 ATS their last 17 non-conference games, while Baylor is 59-35-3 ATS its last 97 non-conference games.  We'll side with the Bears in this near-PK'em affair.  Take Baylor.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over Sacramento.  The Pelicans enter tonight on a six-game losing streak.  But all six games were against teams with winning records, and New Orleans was an underdog in each game.  Here, they're the favorite.  And New Orleans is 11-3 SU/ATS as a favorite this season, including 6-0 SU/ATS its last six.  Meanwhile, the Kings have had another lost season, as they're 20-57 SU and 32-45 ATS.  Sacramento did pull an upset against Toronto, north-of-the-border on Wednesday.  But the Kings are a soft 16-27 ATS as a home dog off a win, if they were playing an opponent off a loss.  The Pelicans have pounded the Kings of late, cashing 11 of the last 12 meetings, including both this season (120-94; 133-123).  Lay the points with New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Memphis.  The Raptors enter tonight off losses to the Detroit Pistons and Sacramento Kings.  We'll take Toronto to rebound off those losses, as it's 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS its last eight (and 169-122-6 ATS its last 297) off back to back losses.  Lay the points with Toronto.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.