Cappers Sports Picks

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over Seattle.  The Chargers have started the season 0-3 SU/ATS after reaching the Playoffs last season.  We'll grab the points with Jim Harbaugh's men on Sunday afternoon, as winless teams, with an 0-2 (or worse) record, that made the Playoffs the previous season, have gone 71-41-2 ATS as underdogs.  Additionally, defending Super Bowl Champs have covered just 43 of their last 109 when priced from -6.5 to -13 points, including 11-24 ATS in the first 6 games of the season.  Take the Chargers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Minnesota Vikings.  Minnesota has been installed as a double-digit favorite vs. the Dolphins.  But the Vikings have generally not been trustworthy when laying a lot of points, as they're 44-64 ATS when favored by 7+.  Admittedly, the Vikings come into this game off back to back upset wins on the road (at Chicago; at Tampa Bay).  Unfortunately, NFL teams off back to back road upset wins have covered just seven of 27 games vs. foes off back-to-back losses.  And winless, double-digit dogs are 56-39 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins.  The Dolphins lost by 14 to the Kansas City Chiefs last week.  But that was a deceptive score, as Miami was only outgained by 5 yards (334-329).  Grab the points with Miami.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New England/Buffalo game.  The Bills have gone 7-2-1 OVER the total in their last 10 games.  The two games that went under were last week's 24-16 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers (when Buffalo had 5 turnovers) and last year's 13-12 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in a heavy rain storm.  The weather is expected to be beautiful in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon, and I expect a game similar to when these teams last met (December 14), a 35-31 Bills win.  Admittedly, the Patriots mustered just 6 points last week in their 35-6 defeat at the hands of the Jaguars.  But NFL teams have gone OVER the total more often than not after scoring less than 7 points, including 35-19 OVER their last 54 in this situation.  The OVER also falls into one of my favorite Totals systems which is 265-179.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the point over Baltimore.  The Ravens defeated Dallas last week, 34-31.  And that was the 3rd straight game where the Ravens gave up 23+ points.  For the season, Baltimore's defense is allowing 26 ppg.  I'm not a big fan of laying a lot of points with teams that give up more than 24 ppg, as they're a poor 76-115-4 ATS as favorites of -9 (or more) points.  Take Tennessee + the points.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  Last season, the Patriots reached the Super Bowl, but they've stumbled to a 1-2 start this season.  Of course, their two losses were to last season's Champs -- the Seahawks -- and the Jacksonville Jaguars (who are 10-1 SU/ATS their last 11 regular season games).  I look for New England to bounce back off its 35-6 blowout loss last week, as losing teams have cashed 63% the past 47 seasons on the road vs. winning foes, if our losing team was getting 4+ points, and off a loss by more than 28 points.  The Patriots are 5-1 ATS vs. the Bills in the last six meetings, and did not lose any of those games by more than 6 points.  Indeed, the only two games of their last 25 that resulted in a loss by more than 7 points were last week's game, and the 29-13 Super Bowl defeat to Seattle.  Finally, the Bills are a soft 14-23 ATS when laying 6+ points, including 7-18 ATS off a SU win, and 4-11 ATS in division games.  Take New England + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Arizona Cardinals/New York Giants game.  The Giants come into this game off back-to-back low-scoring games, with a 12-7 win against the Tennessee Titans last week, and a 28-6 loss at the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2.  However, it must be noted that both the Rams (#2) and Titans (#8) rank among the Top 10 defensive teams in the league in yards per play allowed.  Los Angeles gives up just 4.6 ypp, and Tennessee allows 4.9 ypp.  The Arizona Cardinals are dead last in the league (tied with the Indianapolis Colts) at 6.5 ypp allowed, so expect the sledding to be easier this Sunday for Jameis Winston & Co.  Also, it's certainly true that, for the season, John Harbaugh's team's games are averaging just 33.66 ppg.  And with the Over/Under line significantly higher than that, many bettors might look for another low-scoring game here.  But be careful, as the OVER has CASHED 60.3% the past 20 seasons if one (or both) teams' games averaged 34 or less points, and the O/U line was not greater than 46 points.  We'll take the Giants and Cardinals OVER the total on Sunday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Chicago Bears/New York Jets game.  The Bears opened the season with a bang, as they blew out Carolina, 59-37.  Their next two games were much lower-scoring, as they lost to the Minnesota Vikings, 9-3, in the rain, and then they defeated the Eagles last Monday, 27-7.  We'll look for a higher-scoring game on Sunday, as NFL teams have gone 197-148 OVER the total after not giving up more than 20 points across their previous two games.  Take the Bears/Jets OVER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Chicago Bears.  Last Monday, we played on Chicago as a home dog vs. Philadelphia, and got the $$$ when Case Keenum led the Bears to a 27-7 win.  Unfortunately for Chicago, .363 (or better) teams with a winning ATS record, and priced from +2 to -5.5 points, are an ugly 0-22 ATS off an upset win at home by more than 10 points.  Additionally, Chicago falls into a negative 84-152-4 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off a good defensive game.  Grab the points with the Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 11 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats minus the points over Cincinnati.  The Bearcats upset Kansas State last week, 31-26, as a 6-point home underdog.  Off that big win, we'll fade Cincinnati in Tucson on Saturday night, as it falls into a negative 52-134 ATS system of mine which fades certain road teams off upset wins.  Additionally, the Bearcats are 19-36-2 ATS their last 57, including 0-8 ATS when getting 7 (or more) points.  Take Arizona.  Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas State Red Wolves + the points over Louisiana-Lafayette.  The Cajuns moved to 3-1 this season with a 34-7 blowout at Charlotte last Saturday.  Meanwhile, the Wolves defeated Kennesaw St., 17-14, to level their record at 2-2.  Last season, the Rajin' Cajuns upset the Red Wolves in Jonesboro, 34-30, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  We'll take the revenge-minded road team, as .727 (or better) Sun Belt home teams have gone 13-39 ATS as a favorite off a SU win, when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take Arkansas St.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Rutgers.  Indiana has yet to cover the spread this season, as it's 0-3 ATS in its three FBS games.  But it also has covered the spread in its FBS games by an average of 9.76 ppg since Curt Cignetti took over as head coach.  Rutgers is 1-2 ATS in its three FBS games this season.  But it's also failed to cover the spread this season by an average of 11.83 ppg (which is worse than Indiana's line differential of -8.50).  The Scarlet Knights have covered just one of their last 14 games when getting 14+ points vs. winning foes.  And Indiana falls into a 65.3% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams that are winless ATS on the season.  Lay the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies + the points over USC.  The Huskies were upset at home last Saturday night by Minnesota, 27-24, as a 12-point favorite.  Off that upset defeat, we'll take Washington to rebound in Los Angeles vs. the Trojans.  Washington is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings vs. USC.  And it falls into a 75-19 ATS system of mine which plays on certain road teams off home upset defeats.  Take the Huskies.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over BYU.  The Frogs are allowing just 12.5 ppg this season, and have been installed as a home underdog vs. 3-0 BYU.  Last season, the Cougars blew out TCU, 44-13.  We'll take the Horned Frogs on Saturday night, as revenge-minded teams are 70-29 ATS vs. Big 12 Conference foes, if they lost the previous meeting by double-digits, including 28-7 ATS as a home underdog.  Take TCU.

At 6 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Colorado State/Oregon State game.  The Rams were blown out last week, 59-45, by Texas-San Antonio, and that game went over the total by 47 points.  We'll look for a much lower-scoring game on Saturday evening in Corvallis, as NCAA teams that gave up 59+ points in their previous game have proceeded to go 211-157 UNDER in their following game.  Likewise, teams that went over the total by more than 45 points have then gone 63-42 UNDER in their next game.  Take the Rams/Beavers UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins + the points over Nebraska.  Last week, the Terrapins were trounced, 54-3, by UCLA, as a 2.5-point home underdog.  Maryland thus failed to cover the spread by 48.5 points.  We'll take Maryland to bounce back, as NCAA teams that failed to cover the spread in their previous game by more than 40 points have cashed 57.9% since 1980 vs. foes off a SU win.  Take the Terrapins.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Stanford Cardinal + the points over Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons upset Louisville last week, 30-27, as an 11.5-point underdog.  Unfortunately for the Demon Deacons, they've covered just 22% since 1980 as a home favorite off an upset win the previous week.  That bodes well for Stanford.  As does the fact that Wake Forest is 6-19 ATS as a favorite of -4 (or more) points vs. an opponent off a SU win.  Finally, the Deacs falls into a negative 25-86 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off upset wins.  Take Stanford + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Central Florida.  Last week, the Cougars won, but failed to cover the 17-point spread in a 42-28 triumph vs. Georgia Southern.  Meanwhile, the Knights pulled off an upset last Saturday at home vs. TCU when they won by 8 points vs. the Frogs.  Still, UCF is an ugly 29-53 ATS its last 82, including 1-13 ATS its last 14 vs. foes off an ATS loss!  The Knights fall into a negative 68-175 ATS system of mine which goes against certain road teams off upset wins.  We'll lay the points on Saturday with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Alabama.  The Bulldogs are off to a 4-0 SU/ATS start this season, behind an offense averaging 43 ppg.  Last Saturday, Miss State registered a big home win vs. Missouri, and it notched an upset win two weeks ago at South Carolina.  The Bulldogs will certainly step-up in class this Saturday when Alabama rolls into Starkville.  But we will happily grab the points, as .888 (or better) teams have gone 83-34 ATS at home (at Game 3 forward) vs. SEC foes, if our home team is priced from -4.5 to +14.5 points.  Even better:  at Game 4 forward, NCAA home dogs of +5 (or more) points, that average 43+ ppg, have cashed 63.8% since 1980.  Take Mississippi State.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Minnesota.  The Gophers pulled off a huge upset in Seattle last Saturday when they knocked off the Washington Huskies.  Meanwhile, the Wolverines suffered heartbreak when they lost to the Iowa Hawkeyes on a 16-yard touchdown pass on the game's final play.  The silver lining for the Wolverines is that they did outgain Iowa by 144 yards, and held the Iowa ground game to a meager 58 yards on 21 carries.  Michigan will look to bounce back on the road vs. the Gophers.  We'll lay the points as Big 10 teams off an upset loss have cashed 62.9% since 1980 on the road vs. Conference foes off an upset win.  Additionally, Minnesota falls into a negative 63-137 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off upset wins.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Boston College.  The Mustangs are 0-2-1 ATS in their three FBS games this season, after failing to cover against Missouri State in last week's 34-24 win, while Boston College is 2-1 ATS following its cover vs. Virginia Tech last Saturday.  The Mustangs now fall into a 62-25 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off ATS loss vs. foes off ATS wins.  And they also fall into a 123-80-5 ATS system which plays on certain teams with worse ATS records.  Lay the points.

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Northwestern.  Last year, the Wildcats went into Happy Valley and shocked Penn State, 22-21, as a 21-point road underdog.  The Nittany Lions won't forget that embarrassing loss when they take the field in Evanston on Friday night.  We'll lay the points, as Big 10 teams are 132-79-9 ATS when playing with revenge away from home, and priced from -3.5 to +13 points.  With the Nitts also seeing red from an upset home loss last week at the hands of Wisconsin (as a 10-point favorite), look for Penn State to be in an ornery mood here.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Pittsburgh.  We played on the Steelers last week, and got the $$$ when they upset the Cincinnati Bengals.  But off that upset win, we'll fade Mike McCarthy's men on the road on Thursday night, as road teams are a soft 13-30-1 ATS on Thursdays since 1980 following an upset win in their previous game.  Pittsburgh is also a poor 15-22 ATS as a favorite vs. .350 (or better) foes.  And the underdog has gone 61-41 ATS in AFC North division games.  Finally, the Steelers land in several negative systems of mine this week off that upset win, that have records of 37-90 63-126 and 308-389.  Take Cleveland + the points.  Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over Philadelphia.  The Bears lost to their division rival, the Vikings, last week, 9-3.  And they lost more than just the football game, as QB Caleb Williams sustained a grade 2 hamstring injury, which will sideline him for a month.  Veteran QB Case Keenum will be under center tonight for Chicago, and Tyson Bagent will serve as the backup.  We'll take Chicago as a home underdog, as single-digit home underdogs have gone 83-59 ATS off a home loss in which they scored less than 10 points.  Even better:  home underdogs off division upset losses are 96-76 ATS, including 11-6 ATS on Monday Night Football.  Additionally, the underdog has covered 5 straight in Philadelphia Eagles games, while the dog is 12-5 ATS in this Eagles/Bears series.  Grab the points with Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over Las Vegas.  The Raiders are a surprising 2-0 after wins over Miami and the Los Angeles Chargers to start the season.  We'll fade Las Vegas on the road, as New Orleans is a stellar 77-44-3 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes off a win, while Las Vegas is 7-17 ATS on the road off an upset division win.  Take the Saints.

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over Dallas.  The Cowboys and Ravens will face off at Maracana Stadium, in Brazil, on this afternoon.  Dallas rebounded off its Week 1 loss to the Giants with a 37-20 thrashing of division rival, Washington, while Baltimore was stunned at home, 24-17, by the New Orleans Saints.  We'll take the Ravens to bounce back off that upset loss, as Dallas is a dreadful 15-31 ATS vs. non-division foes with a .500 (or better) record.  And Baltimore falls into a 90-45 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over San Francisco.  The 49ers are off to a fantastic 2-0 start, with wins against the Rams and Dolphins.  They'll host division rival, Arizona, on this Sunday, and are laying north of a touchdown.  We'll happily grab the points, as San Francisco is a soft 7-20 ATS as a home favorite vs. foes not off a SU win.  And Arizona is 31-10 ATS its last 41 as a single-digit road underdog.  Take the Cardinals + the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over the Minnesota Vikings.  We played against Tampa last Sunday, as Cleveland was our #1 play that day (our NFL Underdog of the Month), and the Browns rewarded us with a 23-19 upset win.  But now, we will switch gears and take the Bucs off that upset loss (and fade Minnesota off its upset win over Chicago).  The Vikings are 2-0 SU/ATS, while the Bucs are 0-2 SU/ATS.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take Minnesota, given the small point spread.  But be careful, as winless ATS teams off an upset loss have cashed 66.1% vs. foes off upset wins that have yet to lose ATS.  Take Tampa as a home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the OVER in the New England/Jacksonville game.  The Patriots come into this game off back to back low-scoring games.  They lost to Seattle, 13-10, to open the season, and bounced back with a 20-3 win vs. Pittsburgh last week.  With an average total points of 23.0, we'll look for a much higher-scoring game vs the Jaguars.  Indeed, since 1980, NFL teams whose games average less than 25 ppg have gone OVER the total 61.4% (at Game 3 forward).  Take the Patriots/Jaguars OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Kansas City.  The Dolphins have been installed as a double-digit home dog.  And since 1980, double-digit home dogs have been a reliable bet, going 136-103-2 ATS, including 88-56-1 ATS vs. foes with a scoring margin of 8+ ppg.  With the Chiefs, indeed, outscoring their foes by 12.0 ppg, we'll grab the points with Miami.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over Cincinnati.  Mike McCarthy's men lost 20-3 at New England last Sunday to fall to 1-1 on the season.  Meanwhile, Joe Burrow & Co. are 2-0 after going into Houston, and trouncing the Texans, 20-6.  We'll take Pittsburgh as a home dog, as AFC North division underdogs have gone 60-41-2 ATS vs. division rivals, including 19-7-1 when the Steelers were the underdog.  Grab the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Chargers were upset in each of their first two games, as they lost 26-14 to Arizona, as a 9.5-point favorite in Week 1, and fell to the Las Vegas Raiders, 26-14, as a 6.5-point favorite.  Meanwhile, the Bills are in mid-season form with two wins vs. Houston (36-31) and Detroit (41-31).  We'll grab the points with Jim Harbaugh's men, as underdogs have cashed 67% the past 46 years off back to back losses as 6-point (or greater) favorites, if they were matched-up against a foe off an ATS win.  Even better:  teams that are off back-to-back SU/ATS wins have cashed just 26% since 1980 if they scored 35+ points in each victory, and their opponent was off back-to-back SU/ATS losses.  Finally, the Chargers are a solid 57-16 ATS as a road dog, priced from +2 to +10.5, if they were not off back-to-back wins, and owned a losing record.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers blew out Akron, 41-7 a week ago, and are 2-1 this season, with their first three games all coming at home.  Their first road game of the season will be against a Huskies squad which is off to a 3-0 start after defeating Eastern Washington last week, 48-16.  We'll fade the Gophers, as Big 10 teams are a terrible 36.6% ATS since 1980 in their first road game of the season, if they were off a SU/ATS win, and playing an opponent not off a SU loss.  And Minnesota is a miserable 3-10-2 ATS its last 15 Big 10 openers.  Finally, the Gophers fall into a negative 2-28 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams that covered the spread by more than 6 points in their previous game.  Lay the points with Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Tulsa.  The Razorbacks come into this game off back-to-back blowout losses by 28 vs. Georgia and by 33 points at Utah, while Tulsa is 3-0 following its 42-0 shutout of East Texas A&M.  This is a huge step-down in class for Arkansas, and we'll lay the points as favorites of more than 4 points have cashed 63.8% after back to back losses by 27+ points.  Take the Razorbacks.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. 

At 7:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies + the points over LSU.  Both of these teams are looking to bounce back off losses.  Last Saturday, LSU was a 3-point road favorite in Oxford, but lost to the Rebels, 32-24.  Texas A&M was a bigger favorite, as it laid 17 points to Kentucky in College Station, but fell by 10 points, 31-21.  We'll take the Aggies as a road underdog, as SEC road teams, with a .500 (or better) record, have gone 344-247-11 ATS when not favored by more than 6 points, if they were on an ATS losing streak, including 74-41-3 ATS vs. a conference foe off a SU/ATS loss.  Texas A&M also falls into a 75-18-1 ATS system of mine, which plays on certain teams to bounce back off upset home defeats.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the UNDER in the USC/Oregon game.  The Ducks took out their frustration from losing to Oklahoma State by walloping Portland State, 84-0.  That was the largest margin of victory in Autzen Stadium history.  Don't look for the same kind of offensive fireworks in this game, as USC is NOT Portland State.  Indeed, just last week, James Madison only tallied 26 points after scoring 87 the previous week vs. Wagner, and James Madison's game vs. San Diego St. went under the total.  Like Oregon, USC was involved in a very high-scoring game last Saturday, as it outlasted Rutgers, 42-35.  We'll take the UNDER in this match-up, as it falls into 100-65 and 78-27 Totals systems of mine that play on certain teams to go UNDER the total after scoring a lot of points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks + the points over Alabama.  The Gamecocks will be seeing red in Tuscaloosa after getting upset by Mississippi State, 41-34, last week in Columbia.  And South Carolina will also be looking to avenge its 7-point loss to the Crimson Tide last season, as a 12.5-point home dog.  Still, South Carolina covered the spread in last season's game, and is 5-0 ATS its last five vs. Alabama.  We'll look for that ATS win streak to stretch to 6 in this series, as the Gamecocks fall into a 139-52-1 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams to bounce back off upset losses.  Also, since 1980, South Carolina has cashed 70% as a road underdog in Conference games off an upset loss.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Central Michigan.  The Chippewas upset Wyoming, 24-10, as a 2-point home dog in Mount Pleasant last Saturday.  Off that upset win, we'll fade the Chips in Miami on Saturday evening.  Mid-American Conference teams are a poor 11-27-2 ATS as underdogs of 14+ points off an upset win.  And ACC Conference teams are 55-17-2 ATS when favored by 8+ points vs. a foe off an upset win, including 10-1 ATS when favored by 27+ points.  Take Miami-Fla

At 6 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Delaware.  The Cavs were upset as an 11-point favorite last weekend in Charlotte, NC, by the West Virginia Mountaineers, 38-27.  Off that shocking defeat, we'll play on Tony Elliott's men to bounce back at home, in Charlottesville.  The Cavaliers are a big favorite, once again, and fall into an 87-50 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams to bounce back off upset defeats.  Additionally, the ACC Conference is a solid 32-1 SU and 25-7-1 ATS vs. Conference USA when priced from -10 to -20 points.  Lay it.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Mississippi.  We will fade the Rebels on the road off their upset win over LSU last Saturday night.  Unfortunately for Ole Miss, SEC Conference teams are a poor 34-80 ATS on the road vs. .888 (or better) foes, at Game 3 forward, when priced from +4.5 to -14.5 points.  Take Florida.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New Mexico/New Mexico State game.  The Lobos come into this rivalry game at Las Cruces off a 14-6 loss to the Oklahoma Sooners, in Norman.  That game went under the total by 26 points.  I expect a much higher-scoring game on Saturday afternoon vs. the Aggies, as the last two meetings have ended with scores of 38-20 and 50-40.  Nine of the last 12 games between these rivals have sailed OVER the total.  And they've averaged 66.58 points in those 12 games!  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:45 pm, on, Saturday, our selection is on the South Alabama Jaguars + the points over Kentucky.  The Wildcats knocked off Texas A&M last Saturday, as a 17-point underdog, to register one of the season's biggest upsets.  This week, Kentucky is stepping down-in-class and hosting South Alabama, which is 2-1 after beating Ohio, 41-36.  We'll fade Kentucky off its massive win, as it falls into a negative 97-170 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams in non-conference games off huge upset wins.  Grab the points with the Jaguars.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Sam Houston St.  We played against the Red Raiders last Friday, and got the $$$ with Houston as a big underdog.  This week, we'll switch gears and take Texas Tech, as it is now 0-2 ATS this season in its FBS games.  And Big 12 teams are 70-34 ATS when favored by 14+ points if they were on a 2-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Lay the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the UNLV Rebels minus the points over Akron.  The Rebels had last week off to lick their wounds following a 44-6 loss to North Texas, two weeks ago.  Now, the Rebels will travel to the Rubber City to take on the Zips on Saturday afternoon.  UNLV is a super 21-2 ATS on the road vs. non-conference foes, so that bodes well for it here.  Also, Mid-American Conference teams are a poor 15-39 ATS as underdogs of 8+ points, when playing a rested, non-conference foe.  Finally, UNLV falls into a 67-32-1 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Illinois.  The Buckeyes have dominated Illinois, with 10 straight wins in the series (7-3 ATS).  And they've dominated Big 10 foes, generally, going 24-4 SU and 19-8-1 ATS their last 28, including 11-2 ATS at home in the Horseshoe.  Illinois falls into a negative 76-136 ATS system of mine which goes against certain big underdogs.  Take Ohio State.

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Northwestern.  The Hoosiers are 0-2 ATS in their two FBS games this season after shutting out Western Kentucky, 38-0, last week, but failing to cover the 44.5-point spread.  We'll take Indiana to get into the ATS win column on Friday, as defending National Champions are a solid 89-60-3 ATS in Conference games off a point spread defeat, including 26-8-1 ATS their last 35.  And Indiana has covered the point spread in its 20 Big 10 games under Curt Cignetti by a whopping 14.32 ppg, going 14-6 ATS.  Lay the points with Indiana.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over Green Bay.  We played against Atlanta last week, and got the $$$ with Carolina, in a 34-3 blowout in Atlanta.  Cooper Rush started at QB for the Falcons in that game, but #1 QB, Michael Penix, Jr. will be back under center on Thursday night.  We'll grab the points with Atlanta, as NFL teams off home losses by more than 30 points have gone 74-48-5 ATS if they weren't getting 12+ points in their current game.  Dating back to last season, Green Bay is 4-13-1 ATS its last 18, including 0-6-1 ATS its last seven.  And it's 2-9 ATS its last 11 vs. an opponent off a SU loss.  Take the Falcons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over the New York Giants.  The John Harbaugh-Era in New York got off on the right foot last week when the G-Men upset division rival, Dallas, 28-20.  In contrast, the Rams laid an egg in Australia, as they were destroyed, 27-7, by the San Francisco 49ers.  We'll look for Sean McVay's men to bounce back, as Week 2 teams have cashed 59.1% since 1980 off an upset loss when matched-up against a foe off an upset win.  And the Rams are 7-1 ATS their last 8 off an upset loss, and 11-7-1 ATS vs. foes off an upset win, including 7-0-1 ATS if the Rams were off a SU loss.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Andy Reid's men blew out division rival, Denver, last Monday night, 31-10.  They'll host the Colts at Arrowhead on Sunday night.  And Indianapolis will be looking to bounce back off a 41-23 home loss to the Baltimore Ravens.  We'll take the underdog here, as the Chiefs are a miserable 1-11 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 points off a win by 14+ points.  Meanwhile, the Colts are 39-14 ATS off a loss in which they failed to cover the spread by 8+ points, including 28-4 ATS in non-division games when they're not favored by more than 3.  Take Indianapolis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over San Francisco.  The 49ers upset the Los Angeles Rams last week, 27-7.  We'll fade the Niners on Sunday afternoon, as home teams have cashed just 31 percent since 1980 off a double-digit upset win, if they were playing a foe off a SU/ATS loss.  Grab the points with Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm,our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over Las Vegas.  The Chargers suffered the biggest upset loss in Week 1 when they fell to the Arizona Cardinals, 26-14, as an 8.5-point favorite.  Meanwhile, the Raiders blew out Miami, 27-13.  We'll look for the Chargers to bounce back off that upset loss, as NFL teams that were upset as favorites of 8+ points have cashed 64.2% vs. division foes off a SU win, dating back to 1980.  And favorites off an upset loss in their home openers have cashed 62.5% since 1980 vs. foes not off an ATS loss.  Finally, the Chargers have cashed 75% as divisional home favorites off an upset home loss since 1980.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over the New York Jets.  The Jets went on the road in Week 1 and upset the Tennessee Titans, 23-10.  New York is back home on Sunday, and has been installed as an underdog vs. the Packers.  We'll fade New York, as home dogs have cashed just 24 percent since 1980 off a win in their season opener, if they're matched-up against a foe off a SU loss.  Lay the points with the Packers.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Tampa Bay.  The Browns were blown out on the road by the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1, 34-10, while Tampa Bay fell to the Cincinnati Bengals, 33-27.  The Browns are saddled with another road game in Week 2, and we'll grab the points with Cleveland, as Week 2 road underdogs have cashed 65.7% since 1980 after scoring less than 17 points in Week 1.  Cleveland also falls into a 116-37 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  Take the Browns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.                             

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans minus the points over Cincinnati.  The Texans lost at home to Buffalo last week, 36-31, while Cincinnati defeated Tampa Bay, 33-27.  Houston's back home for this game, and we'll lay the points, as home favorites have cashed 57% in Week 2 off a home loss in their season opener, if they were playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win.  Take the Texans.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers minus the points over Atlanta.  The Panthers were annihilated last week, 59-37, by the Chicago Bears.  Atlanta also lost, but only by seven to Pittsburgh, 20-13.  We'll lay the points with the Panthers on the road, as road favorites have gone 23-2 SU and 20-5 ATS in division games after allowing 42+ points in their previous game.  Carolina is a super 14-1 ATS off a SU loss, including 11-0 ATS its last 11.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish minus the points over Michigan State.  The Irish come into this game off back to back covers - each by seven points.  Last week, they defeated Rice, 52-0, as a 45-point favorite.  And they opened their season with a 41-13 win over Wisconsin, as a 21-point favorite.  They're once again laying a huge number, and we'll lay the points.  This is the Spartans' first road game of the season, and Big 10 teams are 36-64 ATS in their first road game, when they entered off a SU/ATS win, and their opponent was not off a SU loss.  Additionally, Notre Dame falls into a 52-22 ATS 'momentum' system of mine which plays on certain home teams in non-conference games off a win by 50+ points.  Lay it.  Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Colorado State.  The Rams are off to a strong start, with blowout wins over Wyoming (35-13) and Southern Utah (58-24).  They're now catching double-digits from the Cougars, who won SU/ATS at home last week vs. Arizona.  Colorado State falls into a negative 90-161 ATS system of mine, which fades certain home teams with strong ATS records.  And BYU is 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS its last 10 FBS games vs. non-conference foes.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks minus the points over Mississippi State.  South Carolina is 2-0 following easy wins over Kent St. (45-9) and Towson (57-0).  The Bulldogs are also off to a 2-0 SU/ATS start after demolishing Louisiana-Monroe, 62-13, and then blowing out Big 10 foe, Minnesota, last week, 38-13.  Miss State will stay on the road for this SEC Conference game in Columbia, and has been installed as an underdog vs. the Gamecocks.  We'll fade Miss State, as SEC Conference teams off back to back SU/ATS wins are 23-47-2 ATS as an underdog.  Even worse:  SEC teams are 30-76-8 ATS on the road when priced from +4.5 to -14.5 vs. .888 (or better) foes (at Game 3 forward).  The Gamecocks also are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings vs. the Bulldogs.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Stanford Cardinal + the points over Duke.  When Stanford last took the field -- 15 days ago -- we played against it, and cashed on Miami-Fla, which won 45-6.  However, with an extra week to rest and prepare for this ACC Conference game, we'll happily grab the points with Stanford.  Indeed, rested, road teams have cashed 63.2% of Conference games since 1980 vs. unrested foes, if our road team didn't score 7+ points in its previous game.  Take the Cardinal.

At 4 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Indiana/Western Kentucky game.  Last week, Western Kentucky was walloped, 70-20, by the Georgia Bulldogs.  But off that 50-point blowout loss, we'll look for a much better defensive effort by the Hilltoppers in Bloomington.  Indeed, teams off losses by 49+ points in games that also went Over the total, have proceeded to go 96-65-1 UNDER the total in their next game.  Meanwhile, the Hoosiers come into this game off back-to-back wins where they scored 52 and 55 points.  And NCAA teams that scored 52+ points in each of their two previous games have gone 56% UNDER.  Finally, the UNDER falls into 78-27 and 136-68 Totals systems of mine.  Take the Hoosiers and Hilltoppers UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas-El Paso Miners + the points over Michigan.  The Wolverines were my biggest play last week, when they won as a 5.5-point home dog vs. the Oklahoma Sooners.  And that's now 2 huge emotional wins in a row for Kyle Whittingham's men.  They're now favored by 5 touchdowns vs. Texas-El Paso, which blew out Texas Southern last week, 51-10.  But prior to defeating the Tigers, UTEP lost by 51 to Oklahoma in Norman.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to think that Michigan can put a similar pasting on the Miners.  But be careful, as NCAA favorites off upset wins as a 5-point (or greater) underdog the previous week have cashed just 38% since 1980 vs. opponents also off a win, but not off an UNDERDOG win.  I'll grab the points with UTEP.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Clemson.  The Tigers blew out North Carolina, 38-10, last season, so Bill Belichick's men will be looking to avenge that defeat.  They already avenged one loss when they upset TCU in their season-opener, 15-10, after losing to the Horned Frogs by 38 last year.  North Carolina is off to a 2-0 start, and falls into a very good revenge system of mine which is 211-115-4 ATS since 1980 (the same system which triggered our Winner last week on UTSA over Texas State).  And, finally, undefeated, revenge-minded road teams are 142-103 ATS in FBS games their last 245.  Grab the points with North Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats minus the points over North Texas.  Last week, we played on the Roadrunners as an underdog vs. Texas State, and got the $$$ in a 31-26 upset win.  Still, the Bobcats outyarded the Roadrunners 481-398.  But 2 interceptions thrown by QB Brad Jackson and a fumble by WR Blake Smith led to the defeat.  So, we'll switch gears and play on Texas State to bounce back off that upset loss.  Texas State will welcome the Mean Green to San Marcos, and North Texas should be flying high off its 44-6 blowout of UNLV last Saturday -- its second straight ATS win to start the season.  Unfortunately, the Mean Green are an ugly 22-43 ATS as an underdog off a SU win.  And they also fall into a negative 35.2% ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams that are overperforming ATS.  We'll fade North Texas and lay the points with Texas State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over Texas Tech.  The Cougars will be seeking revenge from a 35-11 blowout last year at TDECU Stadium.  They're catching more than a TD from the Red Raiders, and we'll happily grab the points.  Indeed, Big 12 teams are a dismal 29-69 ATS their last 98 when playing a revenge-minded foe they defeated by 10+ points in the prior meeting.  And Houston also falls into a very good 211-115-4 ATS revenge system of mine.  Take Houston on Friday night + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange + the points over Pittsburgh.  Syracuse will be looking to avenge last season's 30-13 home loss to the Panthers when the two teams meet in the Steel City on Thursday night.  Last week, Syracuse was upset, 21-18, by the California Golden Bears, as a 4-point home favorite.  But when one looks at the statistics from that game, the Orange greatly outplayed the Bears.  Syracuse threw for 319 yards, and rushed for 118, while California passed for 182 yards, and got just 67 on the ground.  Combined, Syracuse outyarded California 437 to 249.  And it got 5.02 yards per play, compared to 4.15 ypp for California.  But Syracuse's QB, Steve Angeli, threw three interceptions to doom the Orange.  We'll take Syracuse to bounce back vs. Pittsburgh on Thursday night, as the Orange fall into a 227-118-3 ATS system of mine which plays on certain underdogs off upset losses.  Additionally, revenge-minded underdogs off a SU loss are 351-273-8 ATS in ACC Conference games since 1980.  Grab the points with Syracuse.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over Arkansas.  The Utes have been dominant here, in Salt Lake City, at Rice-Eccles Stadium.  And especially when they owned a .500 (or better) record, as they've gone 128-50-1 SU and 91-62-3 ATS since 1980, including 47-22-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite.  Last Thursday, Utah blew out Idaho, 66-14, while Arkansas eked out a 17-point win vs. Northern Alabama.  We'll lay the points with Utah, as it falls into a 77-15 ATS system of mine.  Take the Utes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.  

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Ohio State.  Last Saturday, the Buckeyes blew out Ball State, 56-3, while Texas won, 59-7, vs. Texas State.  In 2025, the Buckeyes defeated the Longhorns, 14-7, in Columbus, so Texas will be looking for some payback on Saturday night.  We'll fade Ohio State here, in Austin, as Big 10 teams have struggled in their first road game of the season off a SU/ATS win, when playing an opponent not off a SU loss, as our Big 10 teams have cashed just 35 of 101.  Even worse for Ohio State:  Big 10 underdogs of 7 or less points, off a win by 49+ points, have gone just 2-16 ATS.  Take Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Charlotte/Mississippi game.  Both the Rebels and 49ers surrendered a lot of points last week.  Ole Miss allowed Louisville to score 38, but the Rebels prevailed, 41-38.  Meanwhile, Charlotte lost to The Citadel, 43-41. I like this game to be lower-scoring, and go UNDER the total.  Indeed, in NCAA games, with O/U lines north of 58 points, the UNDER has gone 108-79 in matchups between two teams coming off poor defensive games where they allowed 35+ points.  Additionally, Ole Miss has gone 8-1 UNDER when favored by more than 28 points vs. FBS foes.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Navy/Florida Atlantic game.  Last week, Navy defeated Towson, 42-15, while the Owls were blown out by Florida, 66-21.  The Gators were favored by 25.5 points vs. Florida Atlantic, and clearly overmatched the Owls.  But Florida Atlantic is back home for this American Conference battle, and the game is competitively-priced with a point spread below a touchdown.  I expect a much lower scoring game, as Navy employs a run-heavy offense (it rushed 73 times last week vs. Towson, and threw just 21 passes) which will chew up the clock.  And the UNDER falls into a 51-16 Totals system of mine.  Take the Midshipmen and Owls UNDER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers over Mississippi State.  The Bulldogs blasted Louisiana-Monroe, 62-13, last Saturday, as a 28.5-point home favorite.  Meanwhile, the Gophers also won big last week, 59-7, vs. Eastern Illinois, and will look to move their season record to 2-0 when they welcome the Bulldogs to Minneapolis.  We'll grab the points with Minnesota, as home dogs have cashed 61.1% of non-conference games the past 47 years after scoring 50+ points in their previous game, if their opponent was off a SU win.  And Minnesota also falls into 76-31 and 138-77 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Gophers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners + the points over Texas State.  UTSA routed Rio Grande Valley, 45-16, while Texas State was destroyed by Texas, 59-7.  The Bobcats will look to bounce back from that 52-point loss.  But they're playing a foe which has revenge from two losses the past two seasons to Texas State.  And that sets Texas-San Antonio up in two revenge systems of mine that have records of 209-114 and 305-224 ATS since 1980.  Grab the points with the Roadrunners.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Oklahoma.  Both teams won their season-opening game, as Michigan downed Western Michigan, 13-12, on a 47-yard touchdown pass with no time remaining, while Oklahoma blanked UTEP, 51-0.  Michigan will be looking to avenge last season's 24-13 loss in Norman, as a 4-point underdog.  This season, the Wolverines have been installed as a bigger underdog at home, and we'll happily grab the points.  Indeed, road favorites are a dismal 28% ATS since 1980 in non-conference games vs. revenge-minded foes, if our road favorite is coming off a win by 44+ points in its season opener.  And Michigan has cashed 67% as underdogs in non-conference games since 1980 when playing with revenge.  Finally, in his career, Kyle Whittingham's teams have excelled when dressed up as an underdog, going 44-27-2 ATS, including 23-8-1 ATS off a point spread defeat.  Grab the points with Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over Washington State.  Kansas State annihilated Nicholls State, 71-3, last week, while Wazzu fell to rival, Washington, 24-10.  We'll lay the points with the Wildcats, as double-digit home favorites have cashed 57% the past 47 seasons after scoring 50+ points in their previous game.  Take Kansas State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Old Dominion.  The Hokies suffered a home loss to the Monarchs last season, 45-26, as a 5.5-point favorite.  We'll lay the points with Va Tech here, at Lane Stadium, as it's 59-39 ATS when playing with revenge.  Even better:  the Hokies demolished VMI, 73-3, last week.  And NCAA teams off wins by 70+ points have cashed 61.8% the last 47 seasons.  Take Virginia Tech.

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over Missouri.  The Jayhawks got their season off on the right foot last week when they blew out Long Island, 51-6, and covered the spread by a half-point.  Missouri also won, 54-14, vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, but failed to cover the number in that contest, as it was favored by 56.5 points.  We'll grab the points with Kansas, as home dogs have cashed 61.1% of non-conference games the past 47 years after scoring 50+ points in their previous game, if their opponent was off a SU win.  Even better:  the Big 12 Conference teams have covered the spread 62% at home vs. SEC Conference opponents.  Take Kansas as the home underdog on Friday.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over SMU.  Florida State kicked off its season last weekend when it defeated New Mexico State here, in Tallahassee, 34-17.  With that tune-up game out of the way, the Seminoles will welcome ACC rival, SMU, to Doak Campbell Stadium.  When these two teams last met, the Mustangs blew out Florida State, 42-16, in Dallas.  We'll grab the points with the Seminoles tonight, as home underdogs are a solid 142-107-6 ATS in ACC Conference games when they lost the prior meeting by 10+ points.  And SMU is a soft 5-14 ATS on the road vs. Conference foes that SMU defeated in the prior meeting.  Finally, single-digit home underdogs have cashed 58% the past 25 years in Game 2 vs. foes not off a SU/ATS loss.  Grab the points with the Seminoles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers + the points over LSU.  This is the second straight season these two teams have matched-up in the season opener.  Last year's game was at Clemson, and LSU upset Dabo Swinney's men, 17-10, as a 5-point road underdog.  We'll grab the points, as Clemson has been money in the bank as an underdog (or PK), as they're an awesome 79-48-1 ATS since 1980, including 12-5 ATS when playing with revenge from an upset loss.  Clemson also falls into 73-31-1 and 234-147-6 ATS systems of mine.  Take the underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Auburn.  This game will be played in Atlanta, at Mercedez-Benz Stadium.  These two teams also met in the season opener last year, at Waco.  Baylor was a 1-point home dog to the Tigers, and lost, 38-24, so they'll be seeking revenge here.  We'll grab the points, as NCAA teams have cashed 60% since 1980 in season-opening, non-conference games if they were playing with revenge from a 14-point (or worse) blowout home loss the previous year.  And Big 12 Conference teams have cashed 67% as revenge-minded underdogs vs. SEC Conference foes.  Take the Bears + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Liberty Flames + the points over James Madison.  Last season, the Dukes went into Lynchburg, and blew out the Flames, 31-13, as a 7.5-point favorite.  And the Dukes went on to have a great season, winning the Sun Belt and going 12-2, including their first-ever appearance in the College Football Playoffs (where they lost to Oregon).  After reaching the Playoffs last season, it would be natural for the program to stumble out of the gates this season.  And in Game 1, teams that made the Playoffs and/or the BCS Championship game have gone 0-6 SU/ATS (including 5 upset losses as a favorite) when not favored by 7+ points, and playing a team which wasn't involved in the Playoffs or the BCS Championship the previous season.  Even worse:  Sun Belt teams have gone 68-101-3 ATS as a favorite (or PK) in non-conference games if they didn't have a losing record.  Take Liberty.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Stanford.  The Cardinal got a win and (improbable) cover last week vs. Hawaii when they scored the game's last 14 points in a 37-27 win, including a 31-yard fumble return for a TD with 1:12 to go.  Today, they're hosting Miami-Fla, which will be playing its first game of the season.  We played on the Hurricanes last year vs. Stanford, and got the $$$ when they won 42-7, as a 28.5-point home favorite.  We'll take Miami-Fla again here, in Palo Alto, as Stanford is a wallet-busting 25-47-3 ATS its last 75, including 1-8 ATS as a dog of 15+ points off a SU win.  And the Cardinal also fall into a negative 13-33 ATS system following their win over Hawaii.  Meanwhile, Miami-Fla is 21-2 SU and 19-4 ATS in its first road game of the season when laying more than 5 points (and 10-1 ATS when laying more than 14).  Take the Hurricanes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Fresno State.  Last week, the Trojans broke out to a 28-0 halftime lead over Fresno, and then took their feet off the brakes and held on for a 42-26 victory.  They're at home again for this match-up vs. the Bulldogs, who will be making their debut in the Pac-12 Conference.  We'll lay the points with USC, as it's 15-5 ATS in non-conference games at home off a point spread defeat.  And the Trojans also fall into 50-17 and 61-38 ATS systems of mine.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes + the points over Georgia Tech.  These two teams met last season in Boulder, and the Yellow Jackets won on the road, 27-20, as a 3-point favorite.  I like Colorado to avenge that defeat tonight, as NCAA teams have cashed 56% since 1989 in season-opening, non-conference games if they were playing with revenge from a home loss the previous year.  Even better:  the Buffaloes are a super 94-67-4 ATS when playing with revenge, including 9-0-1 ATS their last 10, while Georgia Tech is an atrocious 9-28-1 ATS at home when priced from -13.5 to +6.5.  Grab the points with Colorado.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, on Sunday, February 8, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks to go OVER the total. New England went 9-0 away from home this season, while Seattle went 8-1 away from home. And both teams had no problem putting up points on the road. The Patriots averaged 27.3, while the Seahawks averaged 24.2. Admittedly, both of these two teams have stellar defenses. Seattle gives up just 17.10 ppg, while New England's scoring defense is a smidge higher, at 17.30 ppg. But even though both have great defensive units, I foresee a higher-scoring game than anticipated. Indeed, NFL post-season games tend to be OVERS when two teams with very good defenses meet up. Since 1980, Playoff games between teams with scoring defenses that give up less than 20 ppg have gone 55.2% UNDER, while Playoff games between teams with scoring defenses that give up 20+ ppg have gone 57.9% OVER the total. Likewise, if both teams' scoring defenses give up, in the aggregate, LESS than 34.5 ppg, the OVER has cashed 60.4 percent since 1980, including 14-5 in Super Bowls. The Patriots are a decided underdog in the game. And they've gone 19-8 OVER the total when installed as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 25-15 OVER the total as a favorite, including 15-6 OVER when favored by more than 4 points. Finally, the OVER also falls into systems of mine with records of 24-1, 40-7, 39-20, 62-35, 50-13 and 54-15. Take the Patriots and Seahawks OVER the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over Seattle.  The Rams won their first two playoff games, but failed to cover the point spread in each game.  They defeated Carolina, 34-31, and then survived in overtime to knock off Chicago, 20-17.  In contrast, Seattle was most impressive last week in its 41-6 thrashing of San Francisco.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to succumb to recency bias, and gravitate toward the Seahawks.  But we'll run the other way and grab the points with the underdog Rams.  Indeed, NFL underdogs have gone 32-21 ATS in the Playoffs following back-to-back ATS losses.  And teams off playoff wins by 35+ points have gone just 3-8 ATS in their next game.  Take the Rams.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks to go OVER the total.  NFC Conference Championship games have gone 23-9 OVER the total, including 13-1 OVER if the O/U line was greater than 46 points.  Admittedly, the Rams/Bears game was very low-scoring, with just 37 points scored.  But the Rams had gone OVER the total in seven straight games prior to that one, which was played in inclement weather in Chicago.  This game won't have any weather issues, whatsoever.  Additionally, teams that scored 20 (or less) points in a Playoff victory have then gone 50-34-1 OVER the total in their next Playoff game.  Take the Rams/Seahawks OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.  

At 3:00 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over New England.  The Broncos suffered a bad break last week when #1 QB, Bo Nix, sustained an ankle injury toward the end of their win vs. Buffalo.  Jarrett Stidham will take over behind center in this AFC Championship game, so the Broncos have been installed as a home underdog.  We'll happily take the points with Denver, as it's 47-26-2 ATS as a home underdog (or PK).  Even better:  Denver is 55-13-3 ATS at home when it wasn't favored by more than 2 points, and its win percentage was NOT .333 worse than its opponent's win percentage.  Take Denver + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes + the points over Indiana.  This game will be played at Hard Rock Stadium, so the 'Canes will have a home field advantage.  Indiana annihilated Alabama and Oregon by an aggregate score of 94-25 to reach this title game.  But off those two big wins -- where they covered the point spread by 27.5 and 31 points -- we'll fade the Hoosiers as a road favorite.  Indeed, undefeated teams, with a 6-0 (or better) record, have cashed just 33% on the road after a point spread win by 25+ points.  Likewise, .850 (or better) teams have cashed just 17.3% over the last 40 years after back to back covers by more than 24 points (at game 5 forward).  Finally, the Hurricanes have a very strong defense, and give up just 14 ppg.  Over the last 45 seasons, NCAA teams that allow less than 14.8 ppg, have gone 75-48 ATS in the Bowls when installed as an underdog, including 11-1 ATS vs. foes off a point spread win by 23+ points.  We'll grab the points with the defensive underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Chicago/Los Angeles game.  Last week, the Rams survived a game effort by Carolina to win, 34-31.  And that was Los Angeles' 7th straight game to go OVER the total.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game here.  But the Rams have gone 22-10 UNDER after giving up 27+ points in their previous game.  And NFL teams off 7 (or more) Overs in a row have proceeded to go UNDER 58% since 1980.  The Under also falls into 361-257-13 and 39-13-1 Totals systems of mine.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Houston/New England game.  The Patriots have tended to play high-scoring games at home in the Playoffs, with the OVER going 11-5-1 in the last 17 games played in Foxborough in the post-season.  And the Patriots and Texans have also tended to play high-scoring games, as the OVER is 11-4 in this series, including 6-2 in games at New England, and 6-1 in games with O/U lines less than 45 points.  Admittedly, both teams have staunch defenses, with the Texans allowing 16.7 ppg, and the Patriots giving up 17.9 ppg.  But NFL Playoff games have gone 55.2% OVER since 1980 when both teams don't allow 20+ ppg.  Finally, the OVER falls into 34-5 and 44-13 Totals systems of mine.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the OVER in the Seattle/San Francisco game.  These two teams met at the end of the regular season, and the Seahawks were victorious, 13-3.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game on Saturday night.  But be careful, as NFL games have gone 349-286-12 OVER the total if the season's previous meeting totaled less than 33 points.  Moreover, Playoff games with point spreads of 7 (or more) also tend to be higher scoring, going OVER the total 56% since 1980.  The Over also falls into 11-0 and 7-0 Playoff Totals systems of mine.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over the New England Patriots.  The biggest key, for me, in this game is playoff experience at the quarterback position.  Yes, Justin Herbert has never WON a playoff game.  But he has been in two games.  The first was three seasons ago when the Chargers blew a 27-0 lead vs. Jacksonville, and fell, 31-30.  Then, last season, the Chargers were blown out by the Houston Texans.  Drake Maye, on the other hand, will taste the post-season for the very first time on Sunday.  Advantage:  Herbert.  This will also be the Patriots' first playoff game in four years.  I don't mind playing on an underdog in its initial playoff game which didn't reach the post-season the previous year.  But I don't like laying points with such teams.  The Chargers are 113-66-10 ATS as a road underdog of +2 (or more) points, including 35-15 ATS off back-to-back losses, and 6-2 ATS in the playoffs.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers plus the points over Philadelphia.  The 49ers come into this game off a 13-3 loss to rival, Seattle.  We'll take San Francisco to bounce back this afternoon as it's 102-64-4 ATS off a SU loss, if it wasn't an underdog of more than 3 points in that prior game.  Even better:  the Eagles are a soft 9-16 ATS when laying 6 (or more) points.  Take San Francisco.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Jacksonville.  The Jaguars have won their last eight games.  But long win streaks are not necessarily a good thing when it comes to covering point spreads in the Playoffs.  Indeed, since 1980, teams on 8-game (or better) win streaks have cashed just 35.1%.  Moreover, the Bills have been great as underdogs, dating back to Josh Allen's rookie season, as they're 20-12-2 ATS when catching points.  Take Buffalo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  The Panthers have been installed as a double-digit home underdog, and it's been very profitable to back double-digit home dogs in the NFL.  Indeed, they're 135-103 ATS since 1980, including a perfect 2-0 ATS in the Playoffs (in 2011, Seattle won outright, 41-36, over New Orleans; in 2021, the Commanders lost by just 8 vs. Tampa).  Take the Panthers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks + the points over Indiana.  The Hoosiers blew out Alabama, 38-3, last week, and are 14-0 this season, with one of their wins against this Ducks squad.  That earlier meeting was back in October, and Indiana prevailed, 30-20, as a 7-point road underdog in Eugene.  The Hoosiers are a perfect 10-0 vs. Big 10 foes this season, but I expect that streak to come to an end here, in Atlanta.  Indeed, NCAA teams off a cover by 8+ points, are a poor 37-84-4 ATS away from home vs. conference foes if they were not favored by 7, and owned a 4-0 (or better) record in conference games.  Even worse:  if their opponent was playing with revenge, they've covered just 12 of 52, including 0-7-1 ATS since 2021.  The Ducks are 34-16 ATS when playing with revenge vs. a conference foe at home, or on a neutral field.  Take Oregon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.  

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Denver Broncos minus the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  These two teams met earlier this season in Los Angeles, and the Chargers were victorious, 23-20.  I like the Broncos to avenge that defeat in this season finale.  Indeed, Denver will wrap up the #1 seed (and a bye into the quarterfinals) with a win over the Chargers.  We played against the Broncos on Christmas, and got the $$$ with the Chiefs as a double-digit underdog.  We'll switch gears, and take Denver here, as home teams, priced from -3.5 to -13.5 points, have cashed 90 of 149 if they won, but failed to cover as a double-digit favorite in their previous game.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Miami.  The Pats still have an outside shot at the #1 seed (and a bye into the quarterfinals).  New England has gone 32-13 ATS since 1980 in its final home game of the season, including 12-0 ATS their last 12 when priced from -8 to -17 points.  Take the Patriots.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Chiefs cannot be trusted to lay any points, as they're now 24-44-1 ATS their last 69 when favored by more than 3 points.  Take the Raiders to close out the season with a strong performance at home.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over Tennessee.  The Jaguars have won seven straight heading into their final home game of the regular season.  And their last two wins both came on the road, at Denver, and at Indianapolis.  We'll lay the points on Sunday, as double-digit home favorites have cashed 59.2% off back to back road wins.  Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  Although these two teams won't be going to the Playoffs, the fates of the Buccaneers and Panthers rests on the shoulders of the Saints and Falcons.  Should Atlanta win, then Carolina will head to the post-season, while a Saints triumph would benefit Tampa.  Last week, the Falcons upset the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football.  Unfortunately, the Falcons generally don't play well in back-to-back home games, and are 13-36-3 ATS at home off a home win.  Even worse:  they're 1-9 ATS off an upset win as a 3-point (or greater) underdog.  Take New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.