Cappers Sports Picks

At 8:50 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Michigan/Connecticut game.  Before the start of the season, I made my annual Futures prediction, and tabbed the Wolverines (at 20-1 odds) to win the National Championship.  But rather side with U-M or UConn in this Title game, I'm going to look at the Over/Under.  Both the Wolverines and Huskies played a majority of their games UNDER the total this season, and that's the way we will look on this Monday.  This is Dan Hurley's eighth season in Storrs, and his teams have played 37 post-season games.  They've gone 26-11 UNDER the total in those 37 games, including 8-0 UNDER when priced from 142 to 149.  The last thing that Connecticut will want to do is get involved in a run-and-gun game with Michigan.  UConn will need to slow down the tempo, and deliberately run its offense, if it is to have a chance at pulling an upset.  Indeed, in Michigan's games this season where it scored 81 points (or less), it went 9-2 SU and 0-11 ATS; when Michigan scored 82+ points, it was 27-1 SU and 19-8-1 ATS.  Slowing down the Wolverines is critical for any team to have an opportunity to pull an upset.  And, given how UConn came back from 19 points down to stun Duke in the Elite Eight round, Dan Hurley won't abandon this strategy if the first half doesn't necessarily go well.  Take the Wolves and Huskies UNDER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, in the NIT Tournament, on ESPN2-TV, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers and Tulsa Golden Hurricane to go UNDER the total.  Tulsa's games this season have averaged 158.21 ppg, and have gone Over the total by an average of 4.2 ppg.  Similarly, Auburn's games have averaged 161.27 ppg, and have gone Over the total by an average of 3.6 ppg.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a high-scoring game here, but NIT Tourney games have gone Under 75% of the time if the two teams, on average, went Over the total by 2.97 (or more) ppg.  Additionally, the UNDER falls into an 82% Totals system of mine.  Take the Tigers and Golden Hurricane UNDER the total.

At 5:30 pm, in the Crown Tournament on FOX-TV, our selection is on the OVER in the West Virginia/Oklahoma game.  The Mountaineers ended the season on a 16-4 Under run.  And, going into this Crown Tournament, their games averaged 133.93 ppg.  But their two games vs. Stanford and Creighton were extremely high-scoring.  WVU defeated Stanford, 82-77, and that game went Over the total by 23 points.  Likewise, the Mountaineers' game vs. Creighton sailed over by 19 points.  We'll look for yet another high-scoring game this evening vs. Oklahoma, which is 15-11 Over its last 26.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.  

At 8:45 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines and Arizona Wildcats to go UNDER the total.  These are the top two defensive teams in the country, as Michigan ranks #1 and Arizona #2 in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defensive efficiency metric (which is not surprising given each team's positional length).  Michigan played two other teams (Duke, Nebraska) this season that ranked among the top 10 in defensive efficiency, and those two games averaged 139 points.  Meanwhile, Arizona played seven games this season vs teams ranked among the top 10 in defensive efficiency, and those seven games averaged 152.7 ppg.  So, while Michigan's games this season averaged 157.28 ppg, overall, and Arizona's games averaged 155.31 ppg, both averages were lower against great defensive teams.  And neither faced a defense this season as good as it will see on Saturday night.  Throw in the fact that NCAA Tournament games with O/U lines of 141+ points have gone UNDER the total 61.1% at the Sweet 16 round forward, and we'll look for a relatively low-scoring, defensive battle between these two juggernauts.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Connecticut/Illinois game.  The Illini have the best offense in the country, as they rank #1 in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted offensive efficiency metric.  And Illinois' games average 152.5 ppg.  This is a very low O/U line for Illinois, as it's the 2nd lowest number for any Illini game this season.  And when Illinois has played in a game with an O/U line of less than 147 points, it has gone 5-2 OVER the total.  UConn, meanwhile, has gone OVER the total in nine of its last 15 games with O/U lines of 144 (or less).  Admittedly, the Illini come into this game off three straight UNDERS vs. VCU, Houston and Iowa.  But those three opponents were all on big UNDER runs.  VCU played 13 of its last 18 games UNDER the total; Houston played 17 of its last 25 games UNDER the total; and Iowa played eight of its last 13 UNDER.  Conversely, UConn enters on a 12-7 OVER run.  Finally, NCAA Tourney games with O/U lines of 140 (or less) have gone OVER the total 80% at the Elite Eight round forward, if a team entered off Unders in its three previous NCAA Tournament games.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Bluejays over West Virginia.  This is Creighton head coach, Greg McDermott's final season at the helm, and his players no doubt want to send him out on a winning note.  They won the first game in this 8-team tournament, 82-69, vs. Rutgers.  And they'll take on West Virginia this afternoon.  The Mountaineers got by Stanford, 82-77, in Round 1.  Unfortunately, WVU is 20-40 ATS off a straight-up win, including 0-6 SU/ATS their last six.  That doesn't bode well for WVU.  Nor does the fact that the Bluejays are 19-12 ATS their last 31 post-season games, while the Mountaineers are 18-27 ATS their last 45 post-season games.  Take Creighton.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears over the Oklahoma Sooners.  The Sooners were favored by 9 points in their opening round game vs. Colorado in this Crown Tournament, and they failed to cover the spread, winning by just four points.  And that moved Oklahoma's record as a favorite to a dismal 34-53-1 ATS their last 88.  They are once again installed as a favorite (albeit a small one) here, vs. Baylor.  The Sooners are also a poor 4-12-1 ATS their last 17 non-conference games, while Baylor is 59-35-3 ATS its last 97 non-conference games.  We'll side with the Bears in this near-PK'em affair.  Take Baylor.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over Illinois State.  The Tigers have dominated non-conference foes, going 38-7 SU and 27-16-2 ATS their last 45, including 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS their last 12 when priced from -4 to -12 points.  And Auburn is also 38-8 SU and 30-14 ATS as a favorite of -2 (or more) points vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Meanwhile, Illinois St. is 6-22 SU and 10-18 ATS as an underdog of 7 (or less) points in the post-season.  Likewise, the Missouri Valley Conference is a poor 16-31 ATS in the NIT Tournament as an underdog vs. non-conference foes.  Lay the points with the Tigers.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane + the points over New Mexico.  The Golden Hurricane are 25-15-1 ATS in non-conference, post-season tournaments, including 9-0 ATS when priced from +2.5 to +5 points.  That bodes well for Tulsa tonight.  As does the fact that Mountain West Conference teams are a terrible 58-100-3 ATS vs. non-conference foes in the post-season when playing away from home.  Grab the points with Tulsa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers + the points over Arizona.  The Boilermakers are a solid 16-8 ATS as an underdog in the NCAA Tournament, while the Wildcats are an awful 1-9-2 ATS in the NCAA Tourney off a SU/ATS win.  That bodes well for Purdue tonight.  As does the fact that the Boilermakers are 4-1 SU/ATS vs. Arizona since 2000, notwithstanding the fact Purdue was an underdog in every game.  Finally, underdogs have cashed 66% in the NCAA Tourney's Elite 8 Round in match-ups between two teams that won their conference tournament.  Take Purdue.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Purdue/Arizona game.  The UNDERS have gone 84-59 from the Sweet 16 round forward, and we'll look for a low-scoring game tonight between Purdue and Arizona.  Admittedly, the Wildcats rolled up 109 points in their last game -- a 109-88 blowout of Arkansas.  But NCAA teams are 8-0 UNDER their last eight after tallying 105+ points.  Take Purdue/Arizona UNDER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Illinois.  The #9-seeded Hawkeyes are this season's Cinderella after knocking out #1-seeded Florida in the 2nd Round, and #4-seeded Nebraska in the Sweet 16.  Iowa will now look to avenge an earlier home loss this season to #3-seeded, Illinois.  We'll grab the points as, in the Elite 8 Round, teams seeded #7 (or worse) have cashed 71.8% vs. better-seeded foes since 1990, including 4-0-1 ATS when playing with revenge.  Even better:  Iowa is 22-6 ATS when playing with revenge in the post-season, including a perfect 10-0 ATS when priced from +3.5 to +9.5 points.  Take Iowa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers + the points over Iowa St.  The Cyclones' All-American, Joshua Jefferson, will once again be a game-time decision tonight, as he is recovering from an ankle injury.  We'll take the underdog Volunteers regardless, as Big 12 teams are a poor 11-20-1 ATS in the Sweet 16, including 1-7 ATS vs. foes seeded #6 or worse.  In contrast, the SEC Conference is 9-2 ATS its last 11 games in the Sweet 16, and 6-2-1 ATS in the Sweet 16 when seeded #6 or worse.  And in Sweet 16 match-ups between #2 and #6 seeds, the #6 seed has gone 10-3-1 ATS when priced from +3 to +6.5 points.  Take Tennessee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the St. John's/Duke game.  Both of these teams have been strong UNDER teams this season, and also long-term in the post-season.  St. John's has gone UNDER the total by an average of 3.0 ppg in 2025-26, while Duke's has gone UNDER by an average of 4.1 ppg this season.  The Johnnies have played 11 of their last 12 games UNDER the total.  And they're 15-5 UNDER their last 20 post-season games.  Similarly, Duke is 24-12 UNDER on the season, and 14-6 UNDER their last 20 post-season games.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the St. John's Red Storm + the points over Duke.  The Blue Devils blew out TCU last weekend, 81-58, as a 12-point favorite.  Off that big win, we'll fade Duke this evening, as it's 2-14 ATS in the post-season after covering the spread by more than 8 points, if it was priced from -6 to -23 points.  That bodes well for St. John's.  As does the fact that the Big East Champion has gone 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS its last eight Sweet 16 Round games.  Meanwhile, the ACC Champion is a dreadful 1-8 ATS in the Sweet 16 Round when favored by less than 8 points.  Take St. John's + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Iowa/Nebraska game.  The Cornhuskers are 20-7-1 UNDER the total in their last 28 games.  And, for the season, Nebraska has gone UNDER the total by 7.4 ppg.  We'll look for another low-scoring game tonight against fellow Big 10 Conference foe, Iowa, as Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Round games are 66-42 UNDER the total their last 108.  The Hawkeyes also fall into a Tourney totals system of mine which is 177-112-5.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers minus the points over Texas.  The Boilermakers staggered a bit from January 7 thru March 12 when they went 11-7 SU and 4-14 ATS.  But since then, they're 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, with their only point spread loss coming by a mere half-point.  And, most impressively, they beat the Michigan Wolverines in the Big 10 title game by eight points, and another Sweet 16 entrant, Nebraska, by 16 points in the Big 10 quarterfinals.  Texas is not in the same class as those other teams.  Indeed, the Longhorns' defensive rating is the worst of any of the remaining 16 teams (while Purdue's offensive rating is the best).  I look for Purdue to trounce the Longhorns.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over Nevada.  The Mountain West Conference is a woeful 57-100-3 ATS in the post-season, when playing away from home vs. a non-conference foe, including 4-10 ATS vs. the SEC Conference, and 12-35 ATS when priced from +5 to +10.5 points.  Take Auburn to rout the Wolf Pack.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the New Mexico/St. Joseph's game.  The Hawks have played 22 of their last 31 games UNDER the total.  And, for the season, their games have gone UNDER the total by an average of 3.3 ppg.  St. Joe's is 11-4 UNDER on the road this season, and 10-3 UNDER their last 13 games when the O/U line was north of 151 points.  We'll look for a low-scoring game tonight, as the UNDER falls into a 156-90 Totals system of mine.  Take the UNDER.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears and St. Joseph's Hawks to go UNDER the total.  St. Joe's has played all 3 of its tourney games UNDER this season after its NIT opening round game at Colorado State sailed UNDER the 144-point total by 11 points.  Over the last five seasons, St. Joe's is 16-8 UNDER in the post-season.  And we'll look for another low-scoring game tonight, as the UNDER falls into a 93-51 Totals system of mine.  Take the Hawks and Golden Bears UNDER.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Oklahoma St./Wichita St. game.  The Shockers have gone UNDER in all 3 tourney games this season (2 in the American Conference tourney, and 1 in the NIT).  And Wichita is now 24-11 UNDER its last 35 post-season games.  Take the Cowboys and Shockers to go UNDER the total.

At 7:50 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats minus the points over Utah State.  Mountain West Conference teams have gone 20-40-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament when installed as an underdog, including 0-7 ATS when priced from +9 to +14 points.  We'll take the Wildcats, who are 9-1 ATS their last 10 vs. Mountain West foes.  And Arizona is also a dominant 18-2 SU and 15-5 ATS in the NCAA Tournament's second round.  Take the Wildcats.  Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Iowa.  We played on the Gators Friday, as our 1st Round Game of the Year, and easily got the $$$ in a 59-point blowout over Prairie View A&M.  Top-seeded teams have gone 24-11 ATS in the NCAA Tourney after scoring 100+ points, including 11-0 ATS when priced from -7.5 to -10.5 points.  Lay the wood with the Gators.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over UNLV.  The Rebels are a woeful 17-25 SU and 12-27-3 ATS in the post-season over their last 42 games.  Admittedly, UNLV did go into the Bren Events Center, and defeat Cal-Irvine, 75-72, in the NIT Tourney's opening round.  But the Rebels are horrid after a road win, going 32-57-1 ATS since December 2008.  We'll fade UNLV, as it falls into a negative 98-163-5 ATS system of mine.  Take Tulsa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over Seattle.  The SEC Conference has dominated teams from the West Coast Conference, going 53-28-2 ATS, including 31-12-2 ATS as a favorite, and 10-2 ATS in the post-season.  Lay the points with Auburn

At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over St. John's.  The Red Storm enter off 7 straight wins (and 5 straight point spread victories) after a blowout win over Northern Iowa.  Meanwhile, the Jayhawks frittered away a big lead vs. Cal Baptist on Friday, and failed to cover the point spread in a 68-60 win.  Kansas is 46-32 ATS in the post-season off an ATS loss, and it's 51-31 ATS vs. foes on 3-game (or better) SU/ATS win streaks.  Take Kansas.

At 2:45 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Iowa State.  The #2-seeded Cyclones got a tough break in their 108-74 romp over Tennessee St. when All-American, Joshua Jefferson, went down with an ankle injury.  He is listed as questionable to play on Sunday.  Regardless of Jefferson's availability, we're going with the underdog Wildcats.  Kentucky earned an overtime win vs. Santa Clara in Round 1, made possible by a miraculous, buzzer-beating, half-court heave by Otega Oweh at the end of regulation.  The Wildcats are a solid 16-8-1 ATS as underdogs in the post-season, including 10-1-1 ATS vs. foes with a scoring margin better than 14.7 ppg.  And Iowa State falls into negative 0-18-2, 28-69-1 and 5-28-2 tourney systems of mine, based on its big win over the Tigers.  Grab the points with Kentucky.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the High Point/Arkansas game.  Both of these teams have played high-scoring games this season.  High Point's games average more than 160 ppg, while Arkansas' games average more than 170 ppg.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a high-scoring game, but in the post-season, games have gone UNDER 71% when each team's games averaged 160 (or more) points. Additionally, the Razorbacks are 29-16 UNDER when the O/U line was 162+ points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over High Point.  The #12-seeded Panthers stunned Wisconsin as a double-digit underdog in Round 1.  We'll fade High Point tonight, as teams seeded #12 to #14 are 2-28 SU and 8-22 ATS their last 30 in the 2nd round.  That bodes well for Arkansas here.  As does the fact that the Panthers are 1-9 ATS as an underdog in the post-season vs. a foe off a SU win.  Take the Razorbacks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores + the points over Nebraska.  The #5 seeded Commodores are favored over the #4 seeded Cornhuskers.  We'll take Vandy, as teams seeded #5 (or worse) have gone 54-32-2 ATS as a favorite in the tourney's 2nd round.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:50 pm, our selection is on the Illinois/VCU game to go UNDER the total.  Illinois blew out Penn, 105-70, on Thursday.  We'll take the UNDER tonight, as teams that scored 105+ points have gone UNDER 64% in the post-season in their following game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:50 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over VCU.  The Rams went into overtime in their upset win over North Carolina.  We'll fade VCU tonight, as teams have gone 52-73-3 ATS in the Tournament after an overtime victory.  Lay the points.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Texas.  The Longhorns have used the play-in round as a springboard to the Round of 32, as Texas upended NC State on Tuesday, and followed that up with an upset win over BYU on Thursday.  We'll fade the Longhorns this evening, as teams that won a Play-In game have gone just 42.2% in the tourney as underdogs vs. foes off an ATS loss.  Even better: number 3 seeds (like Gonzaga) have gone 10-1 ATS vs. 14 seeds, if our 3 seed was off back to back wins.  Take Gonzaga.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Texas/Gonzaga game.  The Longhorns have gone UNDER the total in each of their three post-season games, as have the Bulldogs.  Even better:  Gonzaga has now gone under in 7 straight games, and 16 of their last 19 games, overall.  The UNDER also falls into 155-90 and 28-9 Totals system of mine.  Take the UNDER.

At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Texas A&M.  Houston is 16-0 SU and 12-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite in the post-season.  And it is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS vs. foes off an upset win.  We'll look for Kelvin Sampson's men to blow out Texas A&M.  Lay the points.

At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over TCU.  The Horned Frogs upset Ohio State, 66-64, on Thursday.  Off that upset win, we'll fade Jamie Dixon's men, as underdogs off an upset win are 81-115 ATS when seeded #9 or worse.  Take Duke.

At 2:45 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Michigan State/Louisville game.  The Spartans come into this game off 4 straight OVERS, following their 92-67 blowout of North Dakota State.  We'll look for a lower-scoring game this afternoon, as Michigan State has gone 59% UNDER off 4+ Overs.  And Tom Izzo's men have gone 12-4 UNDER in the post-season after scoring 75+ points.  Take the UNDER.

At 12:10 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over St. Louis.  The Billikens blew out Georgia 102-77, as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday, while Michigan failed to cover the spread in its 101-80 win vs. Howard, as a 31-point favorite.  We'll side with the Wolverines in this match-up, as underdogs of 7+ points have cashed just 37% in the NCAA Tournament the past 36 years after covering the spread in an NCAA tourney game by 10+ points, if its opponent failed to cover the spread in its previous tourney game by 10+ points.  That bodes well for Dusty May's men.  As does the fact that #1 seeds have cashed 73% in the NCAA Tournament after scoring 100+ points.  Additionally, teams off upset wins in round 1 are a soft 41.5% in round 2.  Finally, Michigan falls into 66-27 and 56-13 ATS systems of mine.  Lay the points with Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:00 pm, our selection is on the Connecticut Huskies minus the points over Furman.  UConn lost in the Big East Tourney final to St. John's, 72-52, while Furman blew out E. Tennessee St., 76-61, to win the Southern Conference.  UConn is a dominant 57-32 ATS vs. non-conference foes off wins by 9+ points.  Take the Huskies.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Cal-Baptist.  Kansas was smacked, 69-47, by Houston in the Big 12 Tourney.  We'll take the Jayhawks on Friday night, as they're 35-8-1 ATS off a loss by more than 11 points, including 11-1 ATS when favored by 13+ points.  Take the Jayhawks.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Missouri.  Miami was manhandled, 84-62, by Virginia, in the ACC Semifinals, while Missouri lost by 6 in the Big 12 Tourney to Kentucky.  We'll take Miami-Fla as a small favorite, as Missouri is a dismal 2-9 ATS in non-conference tourneys, while Miami-Fla is 7-2 ATS in that situation.  That bodes well for the Hurricanes.  As does the fact that Missouri is 2-8 ATS vs. foes off losses by 20+ points.  Finally, Miami-Fla falls into a 69-35 ATS system of mine which cashed last night on Texas A&M, and plays on certain teams off double-digit losses.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:25 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Prairie View A&M.  The defending champion Gators were blown out, 91-74, by Vanderbilt in the SEC Tourney.  Off that debacle, we'll play on Florida, as it is 7-0 ATS its last seven following an upset blowout loss by 15+ points.  We played on the Panthers in the First Four round, and cashed when they upset Lehigh, 67-55.  That was Prairie View's 11th straight ATS win, dating back to February 16, and 8th straight-up win in a row.  But underdogs of +6 (or more) points have cashed just 6 of 17 following an upset win in the First Four round.  Even better:  teams off upset wins have cashed just 42.1% over the last 36 years vs. foes off upset losses.  Lay the points with the Gators.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Purdue/Queens, NC game to go UNDER the total.  The Royals' games are fast-paced and average 167.7 ppg.  The problem for the Royals tonight is that they are greatly outclassed by Purdue.  And teams seeded 15 or 16 tend to go UNDER the total (67.4% UNDER) in the Tourney's first round when they are matched-up against a top-2 seed, and the O/U line is north of 142 points.  Additionally, the UNDER falls into a 68.4% Tourney system of mine.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the UCF Knights + the points over UCLA.  The Knights were blown out in the Big 12 Tourney quarterfinals, 81-59, by Arizona.  We'll take UCF to rebound off that loss, as it is 29-17 ATS off a defeat by 14+ points.  And UCLA also falls into a negative 28% ATS system of mine which cashed last night on VCU vs. North Carolina.  Grab the points with Central Florida.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Northern Iowa Panthers + the points over St. John's.  the Red Storm won the Big East Tournament.  But they also had the benefit of playing at home.  I often will go against teams in their initial tournament game that won their conference tourney on their home court, as that is a built-in advantage that does not exist in this tournament.  We played against both UMBC and Lehigh in the First Four round after they won their tournaments on their home court.  And we'll fade St. John's here.  Take the points with the Panthers.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Miami-OH/Tennessee game.  The RedHawks have scored 110, 83 and 89 points in their last three games.  And all three went OVER the total.  But off that string of high-scoring OVERS, we'll look for the UNDER to cash this afternoon.  Indeed, teams that topped 80 points in three consecutive games have gone 58.3% UNDER in the NCAA Tournament.  Take the Volunteers and RedHawks UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over Miami-Ohio.  The RedHawks pulled off a big upset in the First Four round by upending SMU.  Unfortunately, double-digit dogs off upset wins in their initial tourney game have cashed just 36.6% since 1990.  Lay the points with Tennessee.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Villanova/Utah State game.  Big East Conference teams have gone 58-45 UNDER in the NCAA Tournament.  And the Wildcats are 14-6-1 UNDER in the post-season in their last 21 games.  Take the UNDER.

At 3:15 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Hofstra.  The Crimson Tide were seeded #2 in the SEC Tournament, but were upset by Ole Miss, 80-79, as a 12.5-point favorite.  We'll take 'Bama to bounce back as teams off upset losses as a top 2 seed in their conference tourney have covered 56.4% in the NCAA Tournament since 1990.  Lay the points.

At 3:15 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Alabama/Hofstra game.  Post-season games, involving double-digit favorites, with O/U lines north of 148 points, have gone 56.0% under the total.  Additionally, this falls into a 69.8% Totals system of mine which cashed yesterday on BYU/Texas Under.  Look for a low-scoring game here.  Take Alabama/Hofstra under.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Idaho.  The Cougars fell by five points in the Big 12 Title game to Arizona, while the Vandals are on a 5-game SU/ATS win streak.  We'll take Houston to rebound off that loss, as the Cougars are 47-22-2 ATS vs. foes off back to back ATS wins, if Houston was not off 2+ ATS wins.  And Kelvin Sampson's men are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the tourney's opening round.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:25 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Penn.  The Illini have been installed as a big favorite vs. the Ivy League champs.  We'll lay the points as #3-seeded teams have gone 60-39-1 ATS in the first round off a loss in their previous game.  And the Illini are 74-52-1 ATS when favored off a SU/ATS conference loss.  Take Illinois.

At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies + the points over St. Mary's.  The Gaels have excelled in their West Coast Conference, going 110-30 SU and 77-61-2 ATS their last 140 conference games.  But they've struggled over the years in the Big Dance, with just a 7-11 SU record, and a 6-12 ATS mark.  And they're 0-4 ATS their last four.  The Aggies are 19-11 ATS their last 30 vs. non-conference foes, and they're 7-1 ATS their last eight as an underdog vs. non-conference foes.  Grab the points with A&M.

At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the BYU/Texas game.  In the post-season, games with O/U lines of 151+ points have gone UNDER 56.2%, and that's the way we'll look this evening in this Cougars/Longhorns match-up.  Additionally, the UNDER falls into a system of mine which has cashed 69%.  Take the UNDER.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Howard.  The Wolves have been installed as a huge favorite vs. Howard, and we'll lay the points this evening.  Michigan is 16-9 ATS with coach Dusty May in non-conference games, including 8-2 ATS when laying 18+ points.  Take the Wolverines.

At 6:50 pm, our selection is on the VCU Rams + the points over North Carolina.  The ACC Conference has no doubt been the best basketball conference over the years.  But it has burned money in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.  And especially when its teams have been favored, as they've gone just 67-88-1 ATS since 1990.  North Carolina also falls into a negative 28.3% ATS system of mine.  Grab the points with Virginia Commonwealth.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:15 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores minus the points over McNeese St.  The Commodores were upset by Arkansas in the SEC Conference final.  We'll lay the points with Vandy, as teams off upset losses in their conference title game have cashed 55.4% since 1990 vs. foes that won their conference tourney.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:50 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers and High Point Panthers to go UNDER the total.  The oddsmakers have installed a relatively-high over/under number for this first round match-up.  We'll take the UNDER, as Wisconsin has gone 56.4% UNDER in the post-season.  And games with O/U lines in the 160s have gone 62.2% UNDER the total in the NCAA Tourney the last 11 seasons.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:50 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over High Point.  The Panthers were the 3rd-highest scoring team this season, with an offensive ppg of 89.9.  And that offensive average was 6.97 ppg better than the Badgers.  Unfortunately, double-digit dogs with offensive averages that rate 6.75+ points better than their foe have cashed just 28% over the last 28 years in the tourney.  This will be a roast.  Lay the points with Wisconsin.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over South Florida.  The Bulls come into this game with the 8th-best scoring average, at 87.7 points per game.  Unfortunately, high-scoring teams that average 87.7 (or more) points per game have been bad bets in the Tourney.  Since 1990, they've cashed just 25%.  Take Louisville.

At 12:40 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Troy.  The Cornhuskers have won 22 straight non-conference games.  And when not favored by more than 24 points, Nebraska is 16-3 ATS its last 19 non-conference games.  The Trojans were the #1 seed in the Sun Belt Tournament, but because of upsets in the Tournament's early rounds, were fortunate to not have to face a team with a winning conference record.  Troy defeated Southern Miss (the #8 seed) in the semi-finals, and Georgia Southern (the #10) seed in the title game.  Teams seeded #13 to #15 are a poor 43.2% ATS since 1990 vs. foes off a SU loss.  Take Nebraska.

At 12:15 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Ohio State.  The Buckeyes come into this game on an 8-1 ATS run, while TCU is 7-2-1 ATS its last 10.  Certainly, both teams are playing well.  But we will fade the Buckeyes as a favorite, as it's 11-18-1 ATS its last 30 games when laying points, while TCU is 8-3 ATS its last 11 as an underdog.  And Ohio State also falls into a negative 23-58 ATS system of mine which goes against certain favorites.  Take TCU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears minus the points over Illinois-Chicago.  The Bears finished their season with back to back SU/ATS losses to Wake Forest and Florida State.  The good news for this game tonight is that the Bears have cashed 60% in the post-season off back to back SU/ATS losses.  And the Flames are a soft 44% the past 36 years as an underdog vs. foes off back to back losses.  California falls into one of my favorite NIT Tourney systems which is 61-22 ATS since 1990.  Lay the points with the Bears.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Murray St. Racers + the points over Nevada.  The Racers come into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses to Bradley and Illinois-Chicago.  We'll take Murray State to bounce back, as it's cashed 67% in its non-conference games off back-to-back SU/ATS losses (and 75% in those games if installed as an underdog).  Take the Racers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the SMU/Miami-Ohio game.  After starting the season with 14 overs in their first 18 lined games, the RedHawks have gone UNDER in 7 of the last 11.  We'll look for another relatively low-scoring game tonight, as the UNDER falls into a 50-21 totals system of mine which cashed last night with Texas/NC State Under.  Take Miami-Ohio/SMU under the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Miami-Ohio.  The RedHawks went 31-0 in the regular season, but lived much of it on borrowed time, as eight of their wins were by three points or less.  Miami won its last three regular season games by 2 points apiece, and was 0-3 ATS in those contests.  So, it wasn't surprising that it fell short in the opening round of the MAC Tournament vs. UMass.  That is now 4 straight ATS losses for the RedHawks, and I don't want any part of them here.  Indeed, teams with a point spread win percentage of .572 (or better) have cashed just 32.2% in the post-season off 4 (or more) ATS losses.  Take SMU.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Bradley Braves + the points over Dayton.  Bradley has been installed as a home underdog, and it's cashed 59.1% as a home dog in non-conference games the past 36 years.   We'll happily take the Braves tonight.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over Navy.  The Midshipmen brought 13-0 SU and 12-0-1 ATS win streaks into the Patriot League tournament.  But they were 0-2 ATS in the tourney, and were bounced out in the semi-finals by Boston U.  Wake Forest falls into a 95-51 ATS system of mine, and we'll lay the points.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Prairie View A&M Panthers + the points over Lehigh.  Underdogs have done well in the games between 16 seeds in the First Four, and especially when getting less than 5 points, as they've gone 18-10-2 ATS.  The Panthers come into this game on a 7-game win streak, and have covered 10 in a row.  Prairie View won the SWAC Tournament as a #8 seed, and upset #3-seeded Southern in the title game, 72-66.  That was the Panthers' 3rd straight upset win.  I won't step in front of this freight train.  Take the Panthers.

At 11 pm, our selection is on the Cal-Irvine Anteaters minus the points over UNLV.  The Rebels continue to burn money in the post-season, going 11-27-3 ATS their last 41, including 4-12-2 ATS as an underdog.  Likewise, the Mountain West Conference teams have gone 38-65-1 ATS when installed as an underdog in the non-conference, post-season tournaments.  Take Cal-Irvine.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle RedHawks minus the points over St. Thomas.  The Tommies are a terrible 2-12 SU and 3-10-1 ATS their last 14 as an underdog, including 0-5 SU/ATS their last five.  We'll lay the points with Seattle.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns and NC State Wolfpack UNDER the total.  The Wolfpack come into this game off 5 straight OVERS.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game here, especially because Texas defeated NC State 102-97 earlier this season in the Maui Invitational.  But we'll run the other way and take the UNDER, as teams off 4+ Overs have gone UNDER 56.7% in the NCAA Tournament.  And the Under also falls into a totals system of mine which has cashed 70% in the NCAA Tournament.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over Stephen F. Austin.  The Golden Hurricane were upset by Wichita, 81-68, in the American Conference tourney title game.  We'll take Tulsa to bounce back this evening, as it is 40-24-2 ATS as a favorite off an upset loss.  The Lumberjacks, meanwhile, are 0-7 ATS their last seven post-season games.  Take the Golden Hurricane.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Davidson/Oklahoma State game.  It's been almost 4 full seasons since the Wildcats had a game with this high of an Over/Under line.  Indeed, their last 10 lined games had an average O/U line of 137.  We'll look for a low-scoring game tonight, as Davidson is 5-0 under its last five (and 17-6 under its last 23) when the O/U line was 155+ points (including 9-0 under when the Wildcats were an underdog of 3+ points).  And the UNDER also falls into a Totals system of mine which is 89-46.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Yale/NC Wilmington game.  This play falls into a Totals system of mine which shall remain for my eyes only.  The angle is 62.7%.  Take the Under.

At 6:40 pm on Tuesday, in the First Four round of the NCAA Tournament, our selection is on the Howard Bison over Maryland-Baltimore County.  These two teams met last season, and the Retrievers upset the Bison, 95-77, as a 2-point home dog.  This season, both teams have been red-hot down the stretch.  UMBC comes into this game on a torrid 12-game win streak, and has covered its last six.  Howard's 11-game ATS win streak was snapped on Saturday, but it still emerged victorious in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference title game vs. NC Central, 70-63, as an 11.5-point favorite.  We'll take Howard to resume its winning ways ATS this evening, as it is 6-0 ATS its last six (and 10-2 ATS its last 12) when playing with revenge.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Purdue.  The Boilers are a putrid 61-98 ATS when installed as an underdog of +2.5 to +12.5 points!  Even worse:  when installed as an underdog in the Big 10 Tournament, Purdue's 0-11 straight-up, and 3-8 ATS.  Take Michigan

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Purdue/Michigan game.  The Wolverines own the country's best defensive rating.  And that has translated to a 14-8 UNDER mark in Big 10 Conference games this season.  The Wolverines' two tournament games sailed UNDER the total by 17.5 and 28 points.  And we'll look for another low-scoring game vs. Purdue.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks + the points over Vanderbilt.  The Commodores stunned Florida, 91-74, yesterday, as a 7.5-point underdog.  But off that 24.5-point cover, we'll fade Vandy today in this SEC Championship game.  Indeed, since 1990, teams off covers by 22+ points have burned money in post-season title games, going just 40% ATS.  Take Arkansas.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the VCU/Dayton game.  The Flyers come into this Atlantic 10 title game with wins in eight of their last nine games.  And eight of those nine games also went UNDER the total, including the last seven-in-a-row.  For the season, Dayton has gone 15-5 UNDER in its 20 Atlantic 10 Conference games, including 8-0 UNDER when priced from 140 to 146.  Similarly, VCU has played its last four games UNDER the total, and is 12-8 UNDER this season in its conference games.  Five of the last seven Atlantic 10 title games have sailed UNDER, and we'll look for another low-scoring game, here.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At midnight, our selection is on the Utah Valley Wolverines over California Baptist.  The top-seeded Wolverines come into this WAC championship game on a 7-game win streak, and blew out the Lancers, 65-46, in the prior meeting.  The top seeds have gone 16-6 SU and 15-6-1 ATS in the WAC Conference championship game.  And Utah Valley is 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings with Cal Baptist.  We'll look for Utah Valley to continue this dominance.  Take the Wolverines.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 8 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Akron/Toledo game.  The Zips are on a 9-game win streak heading into this MAC Conference title game, and have played their last five games UNDER the total, including last night's 75-68 win over Kent State, which went UNDER by 20 points.  Akron has also played seven of its last nine post-season games UNDER the total.  Likewise, Toledo's win over UMass on Friday sailed UNDER by 14.5 points.  This will be another low-scoring game.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern U. Jaguars minus the points over Prairie View A&M.  The Jaguars have won 7 of the last 8 meetings vs. the Panthers (5-3 ATS).  And Southern U. also falls into a 98-49-4 ATS system of mine.  Lay the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Prairie View/Southern U. game.  The 8th-seeded Panthers have turned their season around by playing much better defense.  Prairie View is 8-1 its last nine games, with all 8 wins going UNDER the total.  The Panthers have surrendered an average of 63.6 ppg in these 9 games (compared to giving up 82, 100 and 87 points in the three games leading up to this 8-1 stretch.  We'll look for another low-scoring game here, as the UNDER also falls into a 202-141-4 Totals system of mine.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the St. John's Red Storm + the points over Connecticut.  The Red Storm will look to avenge a 72-40 beatdown at the hands of the Huskies last month.  Teams playing with revenge from a 30-point (or worse) defeat have cashed 56.3% in the post-season since 1990.  Take St. John's.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the San Diego St./Utah St. game.  The Aztecs have typically been a slower-paced team, and have gone UNDER the total in 24 of their last 34 post-season games.  The last 7 Mountain West Conference title games have sailed UNDER the total, and we'll look for that streak to hit 8-in-a-row tonight.  Take the UNDER.

At 6:00 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Houston/Arizona game.  The last four meetings between these Big 12 Conference rivals have gone UNDER the total, and that's the way we'll look this evening, as the UNDER falls into an 84-42 Totals system of mine.  Take the UNDER.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane over Wichita St.  The Golden Hurricane will look to avenge a 4-point loss at Wichita State when these two teams meet this evening in the semi-final round of the American Conference tournament.  Tulsa is an awesome 54-27 ATS when playing with revenge vs. foes with winning SU/ATS records if the game is at home, or on a neutral court.  We'll take Tulsa as the Golden Hurricane also fall into a 314-199 ATS system of mine.  Take Tulsa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Commonwealth Rams minus the points over St. Joseph's.  This has been a one-sided series, with VCU winning nine straight games (7-2 ATS) since 2019.  The Rams are also a spectacular 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS in the semi-final round of conference tournament games.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers minus the points over UCLA.  The Boilermakers will seek payback today for an upset loss at UCLA as a 6-point road favorite.  In the Big 10 Conference tourney, revengers have cashed 70.5% when laying 7 (or more) points.  Take Purdue.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Wisconsin.  The Wolverines' only Big 10 loss this season was to these Badgers, 91-88, as a 19.5-point home favorite.  We'll take Michigan to avenge that loss, as the Badgers are a soft 8-14 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes.  And revenge-minded favorites of 7 (or more) points have rolled to a 70.5% ATS mark in the Big 10 Conference tournament.  Lay the points.

At 11:30 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors minus the points over Cal State Fullerton.  The Rainbow Warriors were upset by Long Beach St., 84-75, to end their regular season.  We'll take Hawaii, and fade Fullerton St., as the Titans are a soft 19-35-3 ATS as underdogs in conference games vs. foes off upset losses.  Additionally, the Rainbow Warriors have won five straight (and 23 of 31) vs. the Titans.  Lay the points.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Kansas.  The Cougars are a super 46-22-2 ATS vs. foes off back-to-back ATS wins, when the Cougars were NOT off back-to-back ATS wins.  With Kansas in off back to back SU/ATS wins over Kansas State and TCU, we'll fade the Jayhawks, and lay the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Utah Valley Wolverines minus the points over Texas Arlington.  The Mavericks have won and covered three straight, but are a poor 5-11-1 ATS off back to back SU/ATS wins, when matched up against a foe off a win.  And Utah Valley is a solid 33-16-1 ATS as a favorite vs. winning opposition.  Take Utah Valley.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Mississippi/Alabama game.  SEC Conference Tourney games have gone 67% UNDER when the O/U line was north of 155 points.  Additionally, the UNDER falls into a 113-71 Totals system of mine.  Take the UNDER.

At 11:30 am, our selection is on the St. Louis Billikens minus the points over George Washington.  The Billikens stumbled badly in their last regular season game at George Mason, as the Patriots walloped them, 86-57.  Still, St. Louis was a super 27-4 SU and 17-11-2 ATS on the season.  Over the last 15 seasons, St. Louis has gone 12-5 SU and 11-6 ATS vs. the Revolutionaries.  We'll lay the points, as NCAA teams with an .860 (or better) win percentage have cashed 61.7% over the last 30 years off a 20-point (or worse) defeat.  Take St. Louis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers minus the points over Kennesaw St.  The Hilltoppers lost their final two regular season games at Missouri St, and at Florida International.  And they also play with revenge from a 3-point loss to the Owls earlier this season.  We'll take Western Kentucky to bounce back tonight, as it's 61-48-4 ATS off back to back losses, including 22-12-2 ATS when playing with revenge.  And the Owls are 19-30-2 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes.  Take Western Kentucky.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers + the points over Davidson.  The Wildcats pulled off a big upset win at St. Bonaventure last Saturday.  We'll fade Davidson, and take the Ramblers, who are 39-19-1 ATS vs. foes off an upset win.  Meanwhile, the Wildcats are 10-22 ATS following an upset conference win.  Grab the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Ole Miss.  The Rebels went into Athens earlier this season and upset UGA, 97-95, as an 11-point road underdog.  I like Georgia to avenge that defeat, as it's won its last three games, SU/ATS, and has scored 87, 98, and 102 points in those three victories.  Georgia falls into a 209-149-9 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams in the Conference tourneys off high-scoring games.  Lay the points with Georgia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Purdue/Northwestern game.  The Boilers were upset, 97-93, by Wisconsin to end the regular season.  We'll take the UNDER this evening, as Purdue's gone 77% UNDER following a loss in which it allowed 82+ points.  Additionally, 11 of the last 15 meetings between these Big 10 rivals has gone UNDER the total.