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Frank Sawyer is on a 13 of 16 (81%) College Football postseason run — and he furthers his 10 of 14 (71%) CFB Conference Championship Game clip with the Utah-USC ATS winner tonight!
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At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (305) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (306) in the Pac-12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Utah (9-3) has won five of their last six games after their 63-21 victory at Colorado as a 30-point favorite last Saturday. USC (11-1) has won five in a row after a 38-27 win against Notre Dame as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES PLUS THE POINTS: Utah will be quite familiar with these circumstances tonight as they are playing in their fourth Pac-12 Championship Game in the last five seasons. This will be a confident team who rallied from 14-0 and 21-7 first-quarter deficits to defeat the Trojans at home by a 43-42 score on October 15th. Head coach Kyle Whittingham should have an interesting game plan to slow down USC’s likely Heisman Trophy quarterback Caleb Williams. While Williams passed for 381 yards and five touchdowns, the Utes sacked him four times and pressured him into some bad throws after that initial quarter. USC only scored 20 points in the final three-quarters of that game. The Utah defense stopped the Trojans in 15 of their 28 third or fourth downs. Since the USC game, the Utes have held their last five opponents to 17.0 Points-Per-Game — and four of the touchdowns they gave up came in garbage time. Furthermore, Utah has given up more than 67 rushing yards only once in those five games. The Utes held the Buffaloes last week to just 185 total yards despite giving the most points since that Trojans game — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. Utah should build off their late-season momentum as they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 20 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. The Utes generated a whopping 662 yards against Colorado — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 or more yards in their last contest. Quarterback Cam Rising completed 17 of 19 passes for 234 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Rising starred in the first meeting with USC by completing 30 of 44 passes for 415 yards. Tight end Dalton Kinkaid was unstoppable by catching all 16 of his targets for 234 yards. The weak link in this game is the Trojans' defense — they are surrendering 33.4 PPG and 475.6 YPG when playing away from home. USC ranks 116th in the nation in Opponents' Pass Success Rate Allowed and 121st in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate Allowed. USC gave up 318 passing yards to Notre Dame last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after allowing 280 or more passing yards in their last contest. They have been fortunate with a +22 net turnover margin on the season with only two giveaways all season — the second-best turnover margin this season is owned by Duke a +15 which is a dramatic gap.
FINAL TAKE: The stakes could not be higher for USC since it appears that a victory would get them into the College Football Playoff. This will be their third-straight high-emotion game after rivalry games against UCLA and Notre Dame. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Utah-USC Fox-TV Special with the Utah Utes (305) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
At 1:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Akron Zips (327) and the Buffalo Bulls (328). THE SITUATION: Akron (2-9) snapped a nine-game losing streak with a 44-12 upset win at Northern Illinois as a 9.5-point underdog last Saturday. Buffalo (5-6) has lost three in a row after a 30-27 loss in overtime to Kent State as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game got rescheduled after the blizzard in Buffalo two weeks ago postponed this contest originally planned for November 19th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulls need to end their recent slide and get the victory this afternoon to become bowl eligible — so head coach Maurice Linguist’s team will be motivated to play well. Buffalo has played 5 straight Overs after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset loss at home to a conference rival. And while that game finished Over the 50.5-point Total, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their last game. The Bulls have scored at least 24 points in ten straight games while averaging 29.5 Points-Per-Game on the season. But stopping their opponent has been an issue as they are allowing 28.5 PPG and 404.5 total Yards-Per-Game at home at UB Stadium — and they have surrendered 35.3 PPG and 422.0 YPG in their last three contests. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Akron has disappointed in their first year under head coach Joe Moorhead — but he will want to end the season on a high note. D.J. Irons was the starting quarterback for most of the season before missing the last two because of injury. Junior Jeff Undercuffler stepped up last week by completing 21 of 32 passes for 312 yards with three touchdown passes while leading the Zips offense to 512 total yards. Look for the offensive fireworks to continue as Akron has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Zips have scored 72 combined points in their last two games — and they have reached at least 27 points in five of their last seven games. Despite their nine losses, Akron has lost four of their last seven games by one possession. But their defense had surrendered at least 27 points in six straight games before their surprising performance against the Huskies last week. The Zips have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing no more than 20 points in their last contest — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. Akron has allowed 36 PPG against FBS opponents — and they let their opponents generate 6.1 Yards-Per-Play and 8.7 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game which are both outside the top 115 marks in the nation. When playing on the road, the Zips give up 39.3 PPG and 461.7 total YPG. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Akron has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total on the road as an underdog — and Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 10.5 to 14 points. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Akron Zips (327) and the Buffalo Bulls (328). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Frank Sawyer offers unmatched handicapping analysis over a diverse array of sports for his Hollywood Sports clients. Frank combines his over twenty years of experience as a professional sports handicapper with the drive to outwork his competition. Why invest in a sports service? Frank answers that question with a proven methodology. His model for success starts by investing a significant amount of time analyzing each team in the sports he handicaps to serve as a foundation for that season. Frank then combines his team assessments with empirical situational handicapping angles along with the latest in cutting edge analytics to identify value in the betting line. Decades of handicapping experience along with his unrelenting focus are the qualities that Frank offers his clients. Frank produces extensive reports that detail his decisions. He does this for two reasons: (1) clients deserve to see the work that goes into a conclusion and (2) Frank’s attention to detail within these reports validates to his clients that he continues to work tirelessly to unearth winning angles. With that ambition in mind, Frank has expanded his areas of interest and scrutiny to include the English Premier League, the PGA Tour, the WNBA, and UFC/Boxing in recent years to go along with the major four sports of football, basketball, baseball, and hockey along with the Canadian Football League, Horse Racing, and World Cup Soccer that he has specialized in since he began Hollywood Sports in 1997. Frank believes long-term success involves not only continuing to dig deeper into the sports that he covers but also in expanding his horizons with new events that can provide additional tools in his handicapping toolbox with the goal of rewarding his clients for their loyalty over the years.
Frank uses a rating 10*, 20*, 25* rating system that also serves a guide for money management: 10* plays warrant a standard bet; 20* plays should see a doubling of that standard bet; 25* plays are Frank’s highest-rated play with the recommendation to invest 2.5 times the standard bet. For Frank’s futures reports or for events with odds such as PGA events or horse races, Frank usually offers three recommendations in his betting report: his Best Bet for the event; his Top Overlay Bet which presents his best value play relative to the odds for the event: and his Long Shot Bet for a big underdog offer value with its potential big payout. Frank’s signature play his “A-List* release which is reserved for rare and elite betting opportunities.
Follow Frank on Twitter: @FrankSawyerHS