Frank Sawyer Sports Picks

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR MONDAY, 9/7:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Monday is with SMU minus the points versus Florida State. SMU (0-0) returns eight starters from their team that finished 9-4 l last season. Since head coach Rhett Lashlee took over as their head coach, the Mustangs have covered the point spread in 21 of their 34 games against fellow ACC competition. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Florida State (1-0) kicked off their season with a 31-17 victory against New Mexico State as a 31.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 home games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Take SMU minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports DELIVERED their 25* MLB Sunday Night Baseball Total of the Month last night with the Twins-White Sox Over! Frank is on a 21 of 34 (62%) College Football run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays to fuel his 34 of 55 (62%) CFB featured plays run in the regular season — and now he UNLEASHES his 25* CFB ACC Total of the Month with the SMU-Florida State O/U winner on ESPN at 7:30 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Southern Methodist University Mustangs (231) and the Florida State Seminoles (232). THE SITUATION: SMU (0-0) makes their season debut after a 9-4 campaign last year that culminated in a 24-19 victory against Arizona in the Holiday Bowl. Florida State (1-0) kicked off their season with a 34-17 victory at home against New Mexico State as a 31.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mustangs were one of the biggest surprises of the 2024-25 season by going undefeated in the ACC and reaching the College Football Playoff. Fourth-year head coach Rhett Lashlee had pulled off a minor miracle by leading this SMU program to two straight 11-win seasons. But the Mustangs also benefited from a soft non-conference schedule (and their lone regular season loss was against BYU) and a conference campaign that did not include Clemson, Miami (FL), and Syracuse — so I was worried that the team would experience a drop-off last season. SMU finished 9-4 last season after beating Arizona in the Holiday Bowl by a 24-10 score. On the one hand, they beat Miami (FL), who would later reach the national championship game. On the other hand,  they suffered upset losses against Baylor, Wake Forest, and California. Senior quarterback Kevin Jennings returns for his third year as their starting quarterback. He played through a nagging injury that limited him to just 55 rushing yards last season. He was more dynamic two seasons ago when he rushed for 354 yards — so the hope is that his ankle is now better and the problem is not systemic. As a pure pocket passer last season, Jennings did throw for 3641 yards. But his penchant for turning the ball over continued as he threw 13 interceptions last year. In his biggest two games two years ago against Clemson in the ACC championship game and then Penn State in the college football playoffs, he turned the ball over five times, and two of his three interceptions by the Nittany Lions were returned for touchdowns. He remains too inconsistent. In his 13 starts when he posted a QBR of 76.0 or higher, SMU has won 12 of those games. But in his seven starts when his QBR finished below that threshold, the Mustangs lost four of those games. Jennings has a tough opening assignment tonight against a Seminoles defense that only gave up 328.9 total Yards-Per-Game last season, ranking 28th in the nation. Florida State held the Aggies to just 319 yards last week — and that defensive unit should benefit from cleaning up some opening game mistakes. SMU has to replace three of their top four receivers from last season — including two tight ends that got drafted into the NFL. The strength of the Mustangs offense is their offensive line, which returns three starters, and Lashlee feels good enough about the recruiting and development of the younger players on the offensive line that he did not add an offensive lineman in the portal. Look for new offensive coordinator Casey Woods to prioritize running the ball on the road behind this offensive line and senior running back Kendrick Raphael coming in as a transfer from California after being named an All-ACC honorable mention last year. This approach will not ask Jennings to do too much on the road in this critical early conference game. Running the ball will also help their defense, which has uncertainty up front and in the secondary. SMU has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the regular season. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road or neutral field in the first half of the season — and they have played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total when favored. Additionally, the Mustangs have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total when played on grass, which is the playing surface at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee. Under head coach Mike Norvell, the Seminoles have become the poster child of the volatility regarding the current state of college football for power conference programs. Florida State enjoyed a two-year run where they went 23-3 that culminated in a snub of the four-team college football playoff (despite being undefeated at the time) because they were down to their third-string quarterback due to injuries. Norvell’s commitment to developing younger players helped nurture a senior- and junior-laden roster that excelled in 2023. But Norvell was also de-prioritizing high school recruiting for the sugar high that the transfer portal offered. After the success of bringing in quarterback Jordan Travis from Louisville and finding a diamond in the rough in defensive end Jared Key from Albany, the program established a new NIL collective, which enabled Norvell to double down on relying on the transfer portal. In my deep dive on the Seminoles for the 2024-25 season, my biggest question regarded whether Norvell was ahead of the curve in finding the right mix of recruiting, attracting transfers, and maintaining his thumbprint on program culture — or did he find lightning in a bottle? After a nightmare 2-10 campaign, some answers were becoming apparent. As I wrote in my deep last year: “Norvell is completely dependent on living - and dying — on the transfer portal. Last year, he mostly struck out … Norvell is failing with high school recruiting — and the program under his leadership is not developing talent. There have been zero high school recruits on offense who were later drafted into the NFL in his five seasons. There are two fundamental problems with the transfer portal for a program like Florida State that fancies itself as a top ten national program. First, the elite college players are not likely to leave the program they initially chose to attend from high school because they are happy with their role and prospects at places like Ohio State or Georgia. And while the opportunity to poach talent from less prestigious programs is plentiful, there is a reason why these players were not recruited by the big boys. Second, it is difficult to establish and maintain a winning culture when the player turnover (and the inherent lack of loyalty from this approach) requires a reset from year to year. The Seminoles will certainly be better this year — but it is a roster dominated by new players from other programs.” Those thoughts were prescient as Florida State did improve — and they opened the season by upsetting Alabama. But they did not look nearly as good in their season debut this year in a listless victory against New Mexico State. The offensive line looked shaky by giving up 10 pressures on new quarterback Ashton Daniels. This is what happens when the offensive line room returns zero starters for two straight seasons. Norvell lost his top seven offensive linemen from last season and had to bring in five new players in the transfer portal. For the third straight year, Norvell handpicked his (presumably) next starting quarterback from the transfer portal by tapping Daniels from Auburn. Norvell failed with D.J. Uigalelei (a blue-chip recruit at Clemson who demonstrated modest improvement at Oregon State) and then Tommy Castellanos last year (who ended the 2024 season by getting benched at Boston College by another supposed quarterback whisperer, Bill O’Brien). But this time, it’s different, right! I’ll communicate without comment that Daniels was originally recruited by Stanford before transferring to Auburn to back up Jackson Arnold last year, before that former blue-chipper got benched. In three starts for the Tigers, Daniels completed 57% of his passes with three touchdown passes and two interceptions. Against the Aggies last week, he completed only 17 of 27 passes for 202 yards. The Mustangs defense he faces tonight will be much bigger and faster. The Seminoles have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against fellow ACC rivals, including 7 of those 8 games Under the Total at home. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under at home as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 

FINAL TAKE: Florida State has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range — and SMU has played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total with the Total set in that 49.5-56 point range. 25* CFB ACC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Southern Methodist University Mustangs (231) and the Florida State Seminoles (232). Best of luck for us — Frank.