Cappers Sports Picks

At 11 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats minus the points over Cincinnati.  The Bearcats upset Kansas State last week, 31-26, as a 6-point home underdog.  Off that big win, we'll fade Cincinnati in Tucson on Saturday night, as it falls into a negative 52-134 ATS system of mine which fades certain road teams off upset wins.  Additionally, the Bearcats are 19-36-2 ATS their last 57, including 0-8 ATS when getting 7 (or more) points.  Take Arizona.  Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas State Red Wolves + the points over Louisiana-Lafayette.  The Cajuns moved to 3-1 this season with a 34-7 blowout at Charlotte last Saturday.  Meanwhile, the Wolves defeated Kennesaw St., 17-14, to level their record at 2-2.  Last season, the Rajin' Cajuns upset the Red Wolves in Jonesboro, 34-30, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  We'll take the revenge-minded road team, as .727 (or better) Sun Belt home teams have gone 13-39 ATS as a favorite off a SU win, when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take Arkansas St.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Rutgers.  Indiana has yet to cover the spread this season, as it's 0-3 ATS in its three FBS games.  But it also has covered the spread in its FBS games by an average of 9.76 ppg since Curt Cignetti took over as head coach.  Rutgers is 1-2 ATS in its three FBS games this season.  But it's also failed to cover the spread this season by an average of 11.83 ppg (which is worse than Indiana's line differential of -8.50).  The Scarlet Knights have covered just one of their last 14 games when getting 14+ points vs. winning foes.  And Indiana falls into a 65.3% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams that are winless ATS on the season.  Lay the points.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies + the points over USC.  The Huskies were upset at home last Saturday night by Minnesota, 27-24, as a 12-point favorite.  Off that upset defeat, we'll take Washington to rebound in Los Angeles vs. the Trojans.  Washington is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings vs. USC.  And it falls into a 75-19 ATS system of mine which plays on certain road teams off home upset defeats.  Take the Huskies.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over BYU.  The Frogs are allowing just 12.5 ppg this season, and have been installed as a home underdog vs. 3-0 BYU.  Last season, the Cougars blew out TCU, 44-13.  We'll take the Horned Frogs on Saturday night, as revenge-minded teams are 70-29 ATS vs. Big 12 Conference foes, if they lost the previous meeting by double-digits, including 28-7 ATS as a home underdog.  Take TCU.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins + the points over Nebraska.  Last week, the Terrapins were trounced, 54-3, by UCLA, as a 2.5-point home underdog.  Maryland thus failed to cover the spread by 48.5 points.  We'll take Maryland to bounce back, as NCAA teams that failed to cover the spread in their previous game by more than 40 points have cashed 57.9% since 1980 vs. foes off a SU win.  Take the Terrapins.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Stanford Cardinal + the points over Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons upset Louisville last week, 30-27, as an 11.5-point underdog.  Unfortunately for the Demon Deacons, they've covered just 22% since 1980 as a home favorite off an upset win the previous week.  That bodes well for Stanford.  As does the fact that Wake Forest is 6-19 ATS as a favorite of -4 (or more) points vs. an opponent off a SU win.  Finally, the Deacs falls into a negative 25-86 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off upset wins.  Take Stanford + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Boston College.  The Mustangs are 0-2-1 ATS in their three FBS games this season, after failing to cover against Missouri State in last week's 34-24 win, while Boston College is 2-1 ATS following its cover vs. Virginia Tech last Saturday.  The Mustangs now fall into a 62-25 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off ATS loss vs. foes off ATS wins.  And they also fall into a 123-80-5 ATS system which plays on certain teams with worse ATS records.  Lay the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Minnesota.  The Gophers pulled off a huge upset in Seattle last Saturday when they knocked off the Washington Huskies.  Meanwhile, the Wolverines suffered heartbreak when they lost to the Iowa Hawkeyes on a 16-yard touchdown pass on the game's final play.  The silver lining for the Wolverines is that they did outgain Iowa by 144 yards, and held the Iowa ground game to a meager 58 yards on 21 carries.  Michigan will look to bounce back on the road vs. the Gophers.  We'll lay the points as Big 10 teams off an upset loss have cashed 62.9% since 1980 on the road vs. Conference foes off an upset win.  Additionally, Minnesota falls into a negative 63-137 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off upset wins.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Central Florida.  Last week, the Cougars won, but failed to cover the 17-point spread in a 42-28 triumph vs. Georgia Southern.  Meanwhile, the Knights pulled off an upset last Saturday at home vs. TCU when they won by 8 points vs. the Frogs.  Still, UCF is an ugly 29-53 ATS its last 82, including 1-13 ATS its last 14 vs. foes off an ATS loss!  The Knights fall into a negative 68-175 ATS system of mine which goes against certain road teams off upset wins.  We'll lay the points on Saturday with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Alabama.  The Bulldogs are off to a 4-0 SU/ATS start this season, behind an offense averaging 43 ppg.  Last Saturday, Miss State registered a big home win vs. Missouri, and it notched an upset win two weeks ago at South Carolina.  The Bulldogs will certainly step-up in class this Saturday when Alabama rolls into Starkville.  But we will happily grab the points, as .888 (or better) teams have gone 83-34 ATS at home (at Game 3 forward) vs. SEC foes, if our home team is priced from -4.5 to +14.5 points.  Even better:  at Game 4 forward, NCAA home dogs of +5 (or more) points, that average 43+ ppg, have cashed 63.8% since 1980.  Take Mississippi State.

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Northwestern.  Last year, the Wildcats went into Happy Valley and shocked Penn State, 22-21, as a 21-point road underdog.  The Nittany Lions won't forget that embarrassing loss when they take the field in Evanston on Friday night.  We'll lay the points, as Big 10 teams are 132-79-9 ATS when playing with revenge away from home, and priced from -3.5 to +13 points.  With the Nitts also seeing red from an upset home loss last week at the hands of Wisconsin (as a 10-point favorite), look for Penn State to be in an ornery mood here.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers blew out Akron, 41-7 a week ago, and are 2-1 this season, with their first three games all coming at home.  Their first road game of the season will be against a Huskies squad which is off to a 3-0 start after defeating Eastern Washington last week, 48-16.  We'll fade the Gophers, as Big 10 teams are a terrible 36.6% ATS since 1980 in their first road game of the season, if they were off a SU/ATS win, and playing an opponent not off a SU loss.  And Minnesota is a miserable 3-10-2 ATS its last 15 Big 10 openers.  Finally, the Gophers fall into a negative 2-28 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams that covered the spread by more than 6 points in their previous game.  Lay the points with Washington.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Tulsa.  The Razorbacks come into this game off back-to-back blowout losses by 28 vs. Georgia and by 33 points at Utah, while Tulsa is 3-0 following its 42-0 shutout of East Texas A&M.  This is a huge step-down in class for Arkansas, and we'll lay the points as favorites of more than 4 points have cashed 63.8% after back to back losses by 27+ points.  Take the Razorbacks.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. 

At 7:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies + the points over LSU.  Both of these teams are looking to bounce back off losses.  Last Saturday, LSU was a 3-point road favorite in Oxford, but lost to the Rebels, 32-24.  Texas A&M was a bigger favorite, as it laid 17 points to Kentucky in College Station, but fell by 10 points, 31-21.  We'll take the Aggies as a road underdog, as SEC road teams, with a .500 (or better) record, have gone 344-247-11 ATS when not favored by more than 6 points, if they were on an ATS losing streak, including 74-41-3 ATS vs. a conference foe off a SU/ATS loss.  Texas A&M also falls into a 75-18-1 ATS system of mine, which plays on certain teams to bounce back off upset home defeats.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks + the points over Alabama.  The Gamecocks will be seeing red in Tuscaloosa after getting upset by Mississippi State, 41-34, last week in Columbia.  And South Carolina will also be looking to avenge its 7-point loss to the Crimson Tide last season, as a 12.5-point home dog.  Still, South Carolina covered the spread in last season's game, and is 5-0 ATS its last five vs. Alabama.  We'll look for that ATS win streak to stretch to 6 in this series, as the Gamecocks fall into a 139-52-1 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams to bounce back off upset losses.  Also, since 1980, South Carolina has cashed 70% as a road underdog in Conference games off an upset loss.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Central Michigan.  The Chippewas upset Wyoming, 24-10, as a 2-point home dog in Mount Pleasant last Saturday.  Off that upset win, we'll fade the Chips in Miami on Saturday evening.  Mid-American Conference teams are a poor 11-27-2 ATS as underdogs of 14+ points off an upset win.  And ACC Conference teams are 55-17-2 ATS when favored by 8+ points vs. a foe off an upset win, including 10-1 ATS when favored by 27+ points.  Take Miami-Fla

At 6 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Delaware.  The Cavs were upset as an 11-point favorite last weekend in Charlotte, NC, by the West Virginia Mountaineers, 38-27.  Off that shocking defeat, we'll play on Tony Elliott's men to bounce back at home, in Charlottesville.  The Cavaliers are a big favorite, once again, and fall into an 87-50 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams to bounce back off upset defeats.  Additionally, the ACC Conference is a solid 32-1 SU and 25-7-1 ATS vs. Conference USA when priced from -10 to -20 points.  Lay it.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Mississippi.  We will fade the Rebels on the road off their upset win over LSU last Saturday night.  Unfortunately for Ole Miss, SEC Conference teams are a poor 34-80 ATS on the road vs. .888 (or better) foes, at Game 3 forward, when priced from +4.5 to -14.5 points.  Take Florida.

At 12:45 pm, on, Saturday, our selection is on the South Alabama Jaguars + the points over Kentucky.  The Wildcats knocked off Texas A&M last Saturday, as a 17-point underdog, to register one of the season's biggest upsets.  This week, Kentucky is stepping down-in-class and hosting South Alabama, which is 2-1 after beating Ohio, 41-36.  We'll fade Kentucky off its massive win, as it falls into a negative 97-170 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams in non-conference games off huge upset wins.  Grab the points with the Jaguars.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the UNLV Rebels minus the points over Akron.  The Rebels had last week off to lick their wounds following a 44-6 loss to North Texas, two weeks ago.  Now, the Rebels will travel to the Rubber City to take on the Zips on Saturday afternoon.  UNLV is a super 21-2 ATS on the road vs. non-conference foes, so that bodes well for it here.  Also, Mid-American Conference teams are a poor 15-39 ATS as underdogs of 8+ points, when playing a rested, non-conference foe.  Finally, UNLV falls into a 67-32-1 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Sam Houston St.  We played against the Red Raiders last Friday, and got the $$$ with Houston as a big underdog.  This week, we'll switch gears and take Texas Tech, as it is now 0-2 ATS this season in its FBS games.  And Big 12 teams are 70-34 ATS when favored by 14+ points if they were on a 2-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Lay the points.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Illinois.  The Buckeyes have dominated Illinois, with 10 straight wins in the series (7-3 ATS).  And they've dominated Big 10 foes, generally, going 24-4 SU and 19-8-1 ATS their last 28, including 11-2 ATS at home in the Horseshoe.  Illinois falls into a negative 76-136 ATS system of mine which goes against certain big underdogs.  Take Ohio State.

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Northwestern.  The Hoosiers are 0-2 ATS in their two FBS games this season after shutting out Western Kentucky, 38-0, last week, but failing to cover the 44.5-point spread.  We'll take Indiana to get into the ATS win column on Friday, as defending National Champions are a solid 89-60-3 ATS in Conference games off a point spread defeat, including 26-8-1 ATS their last 35.  And Indiana has covered the point spread in its 20 Big 10 games under Curt Cignetti by a whopping 14.32 ppg, going 14-6 ATS.  Lay the points with Indiana.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish minus the points over Michigan State.  The Irish come into this game off back to back covers - each by seven points.  Last week, they defeated Rice, 52-0, as a 45-point favorite.  And they opened their season with a 41-13 win over Wisconsin, as a 21-point favorite.  They're once again laying a huge number, and we'll lay the points.  This is the Spartans' first road game of the season, and Big 10 teams are 36-64 ATS in their first road game, when they entered off a SU/ATS win, and their opponent was not off a SU loss.  Additionally, Notre Dame falls into a 52-22 ATS 'momentum' system of mine which plays on certain home teams in non-conference games off a win by 50+ points.  Lay it.  Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Colorado State.  The Rams are off to a strong start, with blowout wins over Wyoming (35-13) and Southern Utah (58-24).  They're now catching double-digits from the Cougars, who won SU/ATS at home last week vs. Arizona.  Colorado State falls into a negative 90-161 ATS system of mine, which fades certain home teams with strong ATS records.  And BYU is 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS its last 10 FBS games vs. non-conference foes.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks minus the points over Mississippi State.  South Carolina is 2-0 following easy wins over Kent St. (45-9) and Towson (57-0).  The Bulldogs are also off to a 2-0 SU/ATS start after demolishing Louisiana-Monroe, 62-13, and then blowing out Big 10 foe, Minnesota, last week, 38-13.  Miss State will stay on the road for this SEC Conference game in Columbia, and has been installed as an underdog vs. the Gamecocks.  We'll fade Miss State, as SEC Conference teams off back to back SU/ATS wins are 23-47-2 ATS as an underdog.  Even worse:  SEC teams are 30-76-8 ATS on the road when priced from +4.5 to -14.5 vs. .888 (or better) foes (at Game 3 forward).  The Gamecocks also are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings vs. the Bulldogs.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Stanford Cardinal + the points over Duke.  When Stanford last took the field -- 15 days ago -- we played against it, and cashed on Miami-Fla, which won 45-6.  However, with an extra week to rest and prepare for this ACC Conference game, we'll happily grab the points with Stanford.  Indeed, rested, road teams have cashed 63.2% of Conference games since 1980 vs. unrested foes, if our road team didn't score 7+ points in its previous game.  Take the Cardinal.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas-El Paso Miners + the points over Michigan.  The Wolverines were my biggest play last week, when they won as a 5.5-point home dog vs. the Oklahoma Sooners.  And that's now 2 huge emotional wins in a row for Kyle Whittingham's men.  They're now favored by 5 touchdowns vs. Texas-El Paso, which blew out Texas Southern last week, 51-10.  But prior to defeating the Tigers, UTEP lost by 51 to Oklahoma in Norman.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to think that Michigan can put a similar pasting on the Miners.  But be careful, as NCAA favorites off upset wins as a 5-point (or greater) underdog the previous week have cashed just 38% since 1980 vs. opponents also off a win, but not off an UNDERDOG win.  I'll grab the points with UTEP.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Clemson.  The Tigers blew out North Carolina, 38-10, last season, so Bill Belichick's men will be looking to avenge that defeat.  They already avenged one loss when they upset TCU in their season-opener, 15-10, after losing to the Horned Frogs by 38 last year.  North Carolina is off to a 2-0 start, and falls into a very good revenge system of mine which is 211-115-4 ATS since 1980 (the same system which triggered our Winner last week on UTSA over Texas State).  And, finally, undefeated, revenge-minded road teams are 142-103 ATS in FBS games their last 245.  Grab the points with North Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats minus the points over North Texas.  Last week, we played on the Roadrunners as an underdog vs. Texas State, and got the $$$ in a 31-26 upset win.  Still, the Bobcats outyarded the Roadrunners 481-398.  But 2 interceptions thrown by QB Brad Jackson and a fumble by WR Blake Smith led to the defeat.  So, we'll switch gears and play on Texas State to bounce back off that upset loss.  Texas State will welcome the Mean Green to San Marcos, and North Texas should be flying high off its 44-6 blowout of UNLV last Saturday -- its second straight ATS win to start the season.  Unfortunately, the Mean Green are an ugly 22-43 ATS as an underdog off a SU win.  And they also fall into a negative 35.2% ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams that are overperforming ATS.  We'll fade North Texas and lay the points with Texas State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over Texas Tech.  The Cougars will be seeking revenge from a 35-11 blowout last year at TDECU Stadium.  They're catching more than a TD from the Red Raiders, and we'll happily grab the points.  Indeed, Big 12 teams are a dismal 29-69 ATS their last 98 when playing a revenge-minded foe they defeated by 10+ points in the prior meeting.  And Houston also falls into a very good 211-115-4 ATS revenge system of mine.  Take Houston on Friday night + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange + the points over Pittsburgh.  Syracuse will be looking to avenge last season's 30-13 home loss to the Panthers when the two teams meet in the Steel City on Thursday night.  Last week, Syracuse was upset, 21-18, by the California Golden Bears, as a 4-point home favorite.  But when one looks at the statistics from that game, the Orange greatly outplayed the Bears.  Syracuse threw for 319 yards, and rushed for 118, while California passed for 182 yards, and got just 67 on the ground.  Combined, Syracuse outyarded California 437 to 249.  And it got 5.02 yards per play, compared to 4.15 ypp for California.  But Syracuse's QB, Steve Angeli, threw three interceptions to doom the Orange.  We'll take Syracuse to bounce back vs. Pittsburgh on Thursday night, as the Orange fall into a 227-118-3 ATS system of mine which plays on certain underdogs off upset losses.  Additionally, revenge-minded underdogs off a SU loss are 351-273-8 ATS in ACC Conference games since 1980.  Grab the points with Syracuse.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over Arkansas.  The Utes have been dominant here, in Salt Lake City, at Rice-Eccles Stadium.  And especially when they owned a .500 (or better) record, as they've gone 128-50-1 SU and 91-62-3 ATS since 1980, including 47-22-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite.  Last Thursday, Utah blew out Idaho, 66-14, while Arkansas eked out a 17-point win vs. Northern Alabama.  We'll lay the points with Utah, as it falls into a 77-15 ATS system of mine.  Take the Utes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.  

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Ohio State.  Last Saturday, the Buckeyes blew out Ball State, 56-3, while Texas won, 59-7, vs. Texas State.  In 2025, the Buckeyes defeated the Longhorns, 14-7, in Columbus, so Texas will be looking for some payback on Saturday night.  We'll fade Ohio State here, in Austin, as Big 10 teams have struggled in their first road game of the season off a SU/ATS win, when playing an opponent not off a SU loss, as our Big 10 teams have cashed just 35 of 101.  Even worse for Ohio State:  Big 10 underdogs of 7 or less points, off a win by 49+ points, have gone just 2-16 ATS.  Take Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers over Mississippi State.  The Bulldogs blasted Louisiana-Monroe, 62-13, last Saturday, as a 28.5-point home favorite.  Meanwhile, the Gophers also won big last week, 59-7, vs. Eastern Illinois, and will look to move their season record to 2-0 when they welcome the Bulldogs to Minneapolis.  We'll grab the points with Minnesota, as home dogs have cashed 61.1% of non-conference games the past 47 years after scoring 50+ points in their previous game, if their opponent was off a SU win.  And Minnesota also falls into 76-31 and 138-77 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Gophers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners + the points over Texas State.  UTSA routed Rio Grande Valley, 45-16, while Texas State was destroyed by Texas, 59-7.  The Bobcats will look to bounce back from that 52-point loss.  But they're playing a foe which has revenge from two losses the past two seasons to Texas State.  And that sets Texas-San Antonio up in two revenge systems of mine that have records of 209-114 and 305-224 ATS since 1980.  Grab the points with the Roadrunners.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Oklahoma.  Both teams won their season-opening game, as Michigan downed Western Michigan, 13-12, on a 47-yard touchdown pass with no time remaining, while Oklahoma blanked UTEP, 51-0.  Michigan will be looking to avenge last season's 24-13 loss in Norman, as a 4-point underdog.  This season, the Wolverines have been installed as a bigger underdog at home, and we'll happily grab the points.  Indeed, road favorites are a dismal 28% ATS since 1980 in non-conference games vs. revenge-minded foes, if our road favorite is coming off a win by 44+ points in its season opener.  And Michigan has cashed 67% as underdogs in non-conference games since 1980 when playing with revenge.  Finally, in his career, Kyle Whittingham's teams have excelled when dressed up as an underdog, going 44-27-2 ATS, including 23-8-1 ATS off a point spread defeat.  Grab the points with Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Old Dominion.  The Hokies suffered a home loss to the Monarchs last season, 45-26, as a 5.5-point favorite.  We'll lay the points with Va Tech here, at Lane Stadium, as it's 59-39 ATS when playing with revenge.  Even better:  the Hokies demolished VMI, 73-3, last week.  And NCAA teams off wins by 70+ points have cashed 61.8% the last 47 seasons.  Take Virginia Tech.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over Washington State.  Kansas State annihilated Nicholls State, 71-3, last week, while Wazzu fell to rival, Washington, 24-10.  We'll lay the points with the Wildcats, as double-digit home favorites have cashed 57% the past 47 seasons after scoring 50+ points in their previous game.  Take Kansas State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over Missouri.  The Jayhawks got their season off on the right foot last week when they blew out Long Island, 51-6, and covered the spread by a half-point.  Missouri also won, 54-14, vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, but failed to cover the number in that contest, as it was favored by 56.5 points.  We'll grab the points with Kansas, as home dogs have cashed 61.1% of non-conference games the past 47 years after scoring 50+ points in their previous game, if their opponent was off a SU win.  Even better:  the Big 12 Conference teams have covered the spread 62% at home vs. SEC Conference opponents.  Take Kansas as the home underdog on Friday.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over SMU.  Florida State kicked off its season last weekend when it defeated New Mexico State here, in Tallahassee, 34-17.  With that tune-up game out of the way, the Seminoles will welcome ACC rival, SMU, to Doak Campbell Stadium.  When these two teams last met, the Mustangs blew out Florida State, 42-16, in Dallas.  We'll grab the points with the Seminoles tonight, as home underdogs are a solid 142-107-6 ATS in ACC Conference games when they lost the prior meeting by 10+ points.  And SMU is a soft 5-14 ATS on the road vs. Conference foes that SMU defeated in the prior meeting.  Finally, single-digit home underdogs have cashed 58% the past 25 years in Game 2 vs. foes not off a SU/ATS loss.  Grab the points with the Seminoles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers + the points over LSU.  This is the second straight season these two teams have matched-up in the season opener.  Last year's game was at Clemson, and LSU upset Dabo Swinney's men, 17-10, as a 5-point road underdog.  We'll grab the points, as Clemson has been money in the bank as an underdog (or PK), as they're an awesome 79-48-1 ATS since 1980, including 12-5 ATS when playing with revenge from an upset loss.  Clemson also falls into 73-31-1 and 234-147-6 ATS systems of mine.  Take the underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Auburn.  This game will be played in Atlanta, at Mercedez-Benz Stadium.  These two teams also met in the season opener last year, at Waco.  Baylor was a 1-point home dog to the Tigers, and lost, 38-24, so they'll be seeking revenge here.  We'll grab the points, as NCAA teams have cashed 60% since 1980 in season-opening, non-conference games if they were playing with revenge from a 14-point (or worse) blowout home loss the previous year.  And Big 12 Conference teams have cashed 67% as revenge-minded underdogs vs. SEC Conference foes.  Take the Bears + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Liberty Flames + the points over James Madison.  Last season, the Dukes went into Lynchburg, and blew out the Flames, 31-13, as a 7.5-point favorite.  And the Dukes went on to have a great season, winning the Sun Belt and going 12-2, including their first-ever appearance in the College Football Playoffs (where they lost to Oregon).  After reaching the Playoffs last season, it would be natural for the program to stumble out of the gates this season.  And in Game 1, teams that made the Playoffs and/or the BCS Championship game have gone 0-6 SU/ATS (including 5 upset losses as a favorite) when not favored by 7+ points, and playing a team which wasn't involved in the Playoffs or the BCS Championship the previous season.  Even worse:  Sun Belt teams have gone 68-101-3 ATS as a favorite (or PK) in non-conference games if they didn't have a losing record.  Take Liberty.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Stanford.  The Cardinal got a win and (improbable) cover last week vs. Hawaii when they scored the game's last 14 points in a 37-27 win, including a 31-yard fumble return for a TD with 1:12 to go.  Today, they're hosting Miami-Fla, which will be playing its first game of the season.  We played on the Hurricanes last year vs. Stanford, and got the $$$ when they won 42-7, as a 28.5-point home favorite.  We'll take Miami-Fla again here, in Palo Alto, as Stanford is a wallet-busting 25-47-3 ATS its last 75, including 1-8 ATS as a dog of 15+ points off a SU win.  And the Cardinal also fall into a negative 13-33 ATS system following their win over Hawaii.  Meanwhile, Miami-Fla is 21-2 SU and 19-4 ATS in its first road game of the season when laying more than 5 points (and 10-1 ATS when laying more than 14).  Take the Hurricanes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Fresno State.  Last week, the Trojans broke out to a 28-0 halftime lead over Fresno, and then took their feet off the brakes and held on for a 42-26 victory.  They're at home again for this match-up vs. the Bulldogs, who will be making their debut in the Pac-12 Conference.  We'll lay the points with USC, as it's 15-5 ATS in non-conference games at home off a point spread defeat.  And the Trojans also fall into 50-17 and 61-38 ATS systems of mine.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes + the points over Georgia Tech.  These two teams met last season in Boulder, and the Yellow Jackets won on the road, 27-20, as a 3-point favorite.  I like Colorado to avenge that defeat tonight, as NCAA teams have cashed 56% since 1989 in season-opening, non-conference games if they were playing with revenge from a home loss the previous year.  Even better:  the Buffaloes are a super 94-67-4 ATS when playing with revenge, including 9-0-1 ATS their last 10, while Georgia Tech is an atrocious 9-28-1 ATS at home when priced from -13.5 to +6.5.  Grab the points with Colorado.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes + the points over Indiana.  This game will be played at Hard Rock Stadium, so the 'Canes will have a home field advantage.  Indiana annihilated Alabama and Oregon by an aggregate score of 94-25 to reach this title game.  But off those two big wins -- where they covered the point spread by 27.5 and 31 points -- we'll fade the Hoosiers as a road favorite.  Indeed, undefeated teams, with a 6-0 (or better) record, have cashed just 33% on the road after a point spread win by 25+ points.  Likewise, .850 (or better) teams have cashed just 17.3% over the last 40 years after back to back covers by more than 24 points (at game 5 forward).  Finally, the Hurricanes have a very strong defense, and give up just 14 ppg.  Over the last 45 seasons, NCAA teams that allow less than 14.8 ppg, have gone 75-48 ATS in the Bowls when installed as an underdog, including 11-1 ATS vs. foes off a point spread win by 23+ points.  We'll grab the points with the defensive underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks + the points over Indiana.  The Hoosiers blew out Alabama, 38-3, last week, and are 14-0 this season, with one of their wins against this Ducks squad.  That earlier meeting was back in October, and Indiana prevailed, 30-20, as a 7-point road underdog in Eugene.  The Hoosiers are a perfect 10-0 vs. Big 10 foes this season, but I expect that streak to come to an end here, in Atlanta.  Indeed, NCAA teams off a cover by 8+ points, are a poor 37-84-4 ATS away from home vs. conference foes if they were not favored by 7, and owned a 4-0 (or better) record in conference games.  Even worse:  if their opponent was playing with revenge, they've covered just 12 of 52, including 0-7-1 ATS since 2021.  The Ducks are 34-16 ATS when playing with revenge vs. a conference foe at home, or on a neutral field.  Take Oregon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.  

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over Arizona.  The Mustangs rate better in both offensive and defensive yards per rush than the Wildcats.  And underdogs have been profitable in the post-season if they rated better in each of those categories, and also had a relative YPR differential of at least 1.0 YPR.  SMU did stumble in its last regular season game, with a 38-35 loss at California as a 13.5-point road favorite.  But SMU is 7-0 ATS its last seven games off an upset loss, provided that game was played at home, or on a neutral field.  And NCAA teams have gone 14-0-1 ATS in the post-season off an upset loss as a favorite of 8+ points, if they were priced from -4 to +8.5 in the current game.  Take SMU + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels + the points over Georgia.  The Bulldogs won the season's first meeting between these SEC Conference rivals, 43-35.  We'll take Ole Miss in Round 2, as it's 27-10 ATS as a revenge-minded underdog when it owned a winning SU/ATS record.  Even better:  NCAA revenge-minded teams are 26-10 ATS in a season's 2nd meeting, provided it wasn't played on its opponent's field, including 19-3 ATS if it lost that prior meeting by 10 points or less.  In its October loss at Georgia, Ole Miss scored on each of its first five possessions, and was up 35-26 heading into the 4th quarter.  But the Bulldogs finished the game on a 17-0 run.  I like Mississippi to finish the job tonight.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.  

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Miami.  The Buckeyes will look to bounce back from their Big 10 Championship loss to Indiana.  I believe they will, as defending champs have gone 20-2-1 ATS their last 23 off an upset loss if they were currently matched up against an opponent off a SU win.  Lay the points with Ohio State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers + the points over Utah.  The Huskers have been installed as a huge underdog in this Las Vegas Bowl game.  It's generally not a good idea to lay a lot of points in Bowl games, as underdogs of 11 (or more) points have gone 68-49-1 ATS in the Bowls when playing at home, or on a neutral field.  Take Nebraska.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Texas.  The Longhorns defeated Michigan last season, so the Wolves play this game with revenge.  Texas is a terrible 1-8 ATS vs. revenge-minded non-conference foes when Texas was priced as a favorite of 13 or less points.  Take Michigan.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils + the points over Duke.  The Blue Devils have won and covered their last three games.  But ACC teams are a dreadful 17-43-2 ATS off 3 SU/ATS wins.  Take Arizona State.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Vanderbilt.  The Commodores come into this game off 3 straight wins.  But SEC Conference teams have gone 5-14 ATS in the Bowls off a win, if they were priced from -3 to -7 points.  Take Iowa.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over Illinois.  The Volunteers were 8-4 this season, but just 3-6 ATS, including a 45-24 blowout loss at the hands of rival Vanderbilt to end their 2025 campaign.  We'll lay the points with the Vols as favorites of -3 (or more) points have cashed 61.8% in the Bowls off a loss by 20+ points.  Take Tennessee.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers + the points over Louisiana Tech.  The Chanticleers were crushed, 59-10, by James Madison to end their season.  But I like them to rebound here, in this Independence Bowl game, as NCAA teams have gone 8-0 ATS the last 15 post-seasons (and 15-4 ATS since 1980) off a loss by 45+ points.  Take Coastal Carolina.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Appalachian State Mountaineers + the points over Georgia Southern.  The Mountaineers' scoring defense rates 4.33 ppg better than that of the Eagles, who are giving up 34.1 ppg.  And Georgia Southern's scoring defense was the worst of any of the 64 teams playing in the post-season this year.  I don't like laying points with bad defensive teams in the Bowls.  Indeed, Bowl favorites (or PK) that surrender 30 (or more) ppg have covered just 36% since 1990 if they also had a worse scoring defense than their opponent.  Take Appalachian St.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:15 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars over LSU.  The Tigers have a poor ground game, and only average 3.4 ypr.  I don't mind playing on such teams in Bowl games if they're getting 5+ points.  But when not getting 5+ points, Bowl teams with poor ground games cover just 38.5%.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers plus the points over Missouri.  The Cavaliers stumbled in the ACC Championship game, as they were upset by Duke, 27-20, as a 3.5-point favorite.  We'll take UVA to bounce back, as it's 76-55-2 ATS as an underdog off a SU loss, including 20-9-1 ATS if off an upset loss.  And SEC Conference teams are a soft 5-13-1 ATS in the Bowls off a SU win, if priced from -3 to -7 points.  Take Virginia.

At 5:45 pm, our selection is on the San Diego St. Aztecs + the points over North Texas.  The Aztecs' defense is giving up just 12.58 ppg, which is 12.33 ppg less than the Mean Green's defense.  I like playing on underdogs in Bowl games with a scoring defense at least 7.5 ppg better than their foe.  Since 1990, they've cashed 60%.  Take the Aztecs + the points.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions + the points over Clemson.  This Pinstripe Bowl game will be played at Yankee Stadium, in the Bronx, New York.  This is the 15th Pinstripe Bowl game, and favorites have gone 5-9 in the first 14.  The Tigers have also struggled as a Bowl favorite, including 2-9 ATS when priced from -1 to -6 points.  Likewise, ACC Conference teams have been subpar in the Bowls vs. Big 10 foes, including 3-15 SU and 4-14 ATS their last 18.  The Nittany Lions never lived up to their preseason #1 ranking, but righted themselves after losing QB Drew Allar to injury in their loss to Northwestern on October 11.  Since that game, they went 4-2 ATS (after going 0-5 ATS in their five FBS games to start the season).  Clemson falls into a negative 105-158 ATS Bowl system of mine, and we'll fade the Tigers on this Saturday.  Grab the points with Penn State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, in the First Responder Bowl, our selection is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners minus the points over Florida International.  This game will be played in Dallas, Texas, just a few hours up I-35 from the Roadrunners campus.  So, UTSA will have a lot of supporters in the stands.  American Conference teams have dominated Conference USA foes, going 28-10 SU and 22-16 ATS, including 5-0 SU/ATS in the last five Bowl match-ups.  The Roadrunners stumbled at home in their final regular season game, losing to Army, 27-24, as an 8.5-point favorite.  We had a big play on Army in that game, but will switch gears and play on the Roadrunners off that SU loss.  Indeed, Texas-San Antonio is 16-1 ATS off a SU loss to a conference foe, including 3-0 in the post-season.  We'll lay the points with the Roadrunners, who fall into 139-82 and 105-65 ATS Bowl systems of mine.  Take Texas-San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors over the California Golden Bears.  The Golden Bears upset SMU, 38-35, to end the season.  Unfortunately, the Bears are a brutal 0-12 ATS their last 12 FBS games (and 1-17 ATS their last 18 FBS games) off an upset win, if the point spread on their current game was 4 points or less.  Hawaii also won its regular season finale, and will play this Hawaii Bowl game in front of their home faithful.  And we will take Hawaii, as it's 13-0 ATS its last 13 FBS games at home when not laying more than 10 points, covering the point spread by an average of 13.73 ppg in those 13 ATS wins.  Hawaii is also 7-2 ATS in the Bowls when the line was less than 9 points, while California is 2-6 ATS its last eight Bowl games (0-3 ATS as an underdog).  Take Hawaii.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over James Madison.  The Ducks are 30-17-1 ATS in their last 48 FBS games, including 18-8 ATS when laying more than 14 points.  Meanwhile, big underdogs of +18 (or more) points have burned money in the post-season, going 5-11 ATS their last 16.  Over the last 3 seasons, the Ducks have gone 20-1 at home, with 13 of the 21 wins by 21+ points.  And they've won their 7 non-conference games by 39.7 ppg.  We'll fade the Dukes, as .818 (or better) underdogs of more than 9 points have covered just 35% of post-season games, if they weren't playing with revenge.  Take Oregon in a blowout.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas A/M Aggies minus the points over Miami-Fla.  The Hurricanes come into this game off a 38-7 blowout win over Pittsburgh (their fourth straight win), while the Aggies lost at rival, Texas, 27-17, as a 3-point road favorite to end their regular season.  I look for the Aggies to redeem themselves here, at home, on Saturday afternoon.  Indeed, they're 24-9-2 ATS at home off a loss, if their opponent was off a win, including 9-2 ATS off an upset win.  Meanwhile, the Hurricanes are a horrid 16-38 ATS when playing with rest, including 6-23 ATS off back-to-back wins.  Lay the points with Mike Elko's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners over Alabama.  These two teams met earlier this season, and the Sooners prevailed, 23-21, as a 6-point road underdog in Tuscaloosa.  And that was the 2nd straight win by Oklahoma in this series, as they won here, in Norman, last season, 24-3, as a 14-point home underdog.  I look for Oklahoma to make it three-in-a-row this evening, with the most important factor being its home field.  Oklahoma has been especially dominant at home in big games where both teams had winning records.  Indeed, since 1980, the Sooners have gone 41-12 SU and 34-19 ATS in such match-ups when priced as a favorite of less than 15 points (or PK).  Take Oklahoma.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over North Carolina State.  The Tigers were upset by Navy, 28-17, to end the season.  Off that upset loss, we'll grab the points with Memphis this afternoon.  The Tigers are 28-17-1 ATS off an upset loss since 1980 (including 1-0 in the Bowls), while NC State is a nasty 0-13 ATS vs. foes off an upset loss when priced as a favorite of 9 points or less (or PK).  Take Memphis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 am, on Friday morning, our selection is on the Kennesaw St. Owls + the points over Western Michigan.  The Owls won their first Conference USA Championship with a 19-15 road win at Jacksonville St. in the title game.  And that was the Owls' 3rd straight win and cover.  We'll grab the points with Kennesaw, as underdogs have cashed 59% in the Bowls since 1980 off 3 SU/ATS wins, if they were matched up against an opponent also off a SU win.  Take the Owls.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Missouri State Bears minus the points over Arkansas St.  When these teams last met (in 2015), the Red Wolves blew out the Bears, 70-7.  But a lot has changed since then, as the Bears are now a Division 1 team, having joined Conference USA this season.  Missouri State had a successful first season as a Division 1 member, and went 7-5.  But the Bears lost their final two games to end the year, including an upset loss to Louisiana Tech on Thanksgiving weekend.  Over the last 3 years, the Red Wolves have played markedly better at home than away from home.  In Jonesboro, they've covered the spread by an average of 6.9 ppg.  But away from home, they've failed to cover the spread by 2.82 ppg (a difference of 9.72 ppg).  We'll take the Bears, as teams off back-to-back SU/ATS losses to end the season have cashed 57% in the Bowls since 1980 if they weren't favored by 3+ points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, in the Veterans Bowl, our selection is on the Jacksonville St. Gamecocks + the points over Troy.  This game will be played in Montgomery, Alabama.  And both teams also hail from the State.  But even though they're just a 3 hour drive away, the two schools have not played since 2001.  That game was won by Troy, 21-3.  And the Trojans won all seven meetings between 1995-2001 (though Jacksonville State leads the all-time series).  The Gamecocks come into this game off a loss in the C-USA Title game, 19-15, to Kennesaw St.  But Jacksonville St. is 7-0-1 ATS at home, or on a neutral field, following a straight-up loss.  The Sun Belt Conference is a soft 18-26-1 ATS as a favorite in Bowl games.  And Troy also falls into a negative 104-163 ATS Bowl system of mine based on its negative yards per rush differential (the Gamecocks average 5.5 ypr, while Troy averages just 2.7 ypr).  Even worse for Troy:  it will be without leading rusher Tae Meadows (695 rushing yards, 6 TDs), as he entered the Transfer Portal.  Take the Gamecocks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Alabama.  The Crimson Tide upset Georgia earlier this season.  We'll lay the points with UGA in the rematch, as the Bulldogs are 21-3-2 ATS when favored by 24 points (or less) and playing with revenge.  Take Georgia.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the BYU Cougars + the points over Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders routed BYU, 29-7, last month.  We had a big play on the Red Raiders in that game, but will side with the Cougars this afternoon.  Indeed, the revenge-minded team has gone 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in the Big 12 Title Game since 2018.  And Big 12 teams playing with revenge from a loss by 15+ points have gone 28-11 ATS.  Take BYU.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos minus the points over UNLV.  Last week, the Broncos edged Utah St., 25-24, but failed to cover the spread, while UNLV blew out rival, Nevada. The good news for Boise, here, is that it is 24-9-2 ATS its last 35 FBS games (and 68-46-4 its last 118) off a point spread loss, including 9-0 ATS its last 9 at home when not laying more than 7 points.  Additionally, Boise has dominated the Rebels, going 9-0 SU in their Mountain West Conference match-ups, and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  We'll look for that dominance to continue tonight.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave + the points over North Texas.  Last week, Tulane shut out Charlotte, 27-0, while North Texas trounced Temple, 52-25.  This game will be played at Yulman Stadium, in New Orleans.  The Green Wave are a super 8-3 ATS as a home underdog.  And they're 25-10-1 ATS their last 36 at home when not laying more than 7 points.  Even better:  in the post-season, home teams have gone 17-6 ATS when playing an opponent which scored 37+ points in its previous game.  Grab the points with Tulane.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the James Madison Dukes minus the points over Troy.  The Dukes are giving up just 16 ppg on the season.   We'll lay the points, as favorites of -21 (or more) points have gone 52-26 ATS in conference games if their defense allowed less than 17 ppg (at Game 10 forward), and their opponent was off back-to-back wins.  Take James Madison.

At 9 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack + the points over UNLV.  The Pack are 3-8 this season, so this is essentially its 'Bowl Game.'  This Silver State battle for the Fremont Cannon has been hotly-contested over the years, with Nevada going 20-13 SU and 14-12 ATS (with seven non-lined games) in the last 33 meetings.  UNLV played one of its best games of the season last week when it blew out Hawaii, 38-10, as a 2-point home favorite.  It outyarded the Rainbow Warriors, 470-231.  But off that big win, we'll fade the Rebels on Saturday, as they fall into a negative 27-90 ATS system of mine which plays against certain teams with a win percentage greater than .720 off a SU/ATS win.  Additionally, Mountain West Conference teams are a poor 36.6% the past 46 seasons after covering the spread by more than 20 points, if they were matched-up against a foe off a SU win in their current game.  Grab the points with Nevada.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over SMU.  California was upset by rival Stanford last week, 31-10.  The Bears are a home dog vs. SMU tonight, and play with revenge from a 38-6 loss in Dallas last season.  We'll take California, as .500 (or better) revenge-minded home underdogs have gone 63.3% ATS off an upset loss in ACC Conference games.  Take California.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers + the points over Oklahoma.  The Tigers are riding a 5-game ATS losing streak.  But we'll step in and grab the points, as SEC Conference teams have covered 66.1% as road underdogs since 1980 on 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks, if their opponent was off a SU win.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over Vanderbilt.  It's been 12 years since the last time the Commodores owned a better record than their cross-state rival at the time of the match-up.  But that's the case this weekend, as Vandy is 9-2, while Tennessee is 8-3.  Still, the Volunteers have dominated Vanderbilt, with a 38-7 SU record since 1980, including a 36-23 beatdown last year as a 10-point road favorite.  The point spread is much less this season, of course, as Vandy's scoring margin is 2.18 ppg better than Tennessee's.  And Vandy also comes into this game on a 2-game win streak (and 5-game ATS win streak).  We'll fade the red-hot Commodores, as SEC Conference teams have gone 31.4% ATS as underdogs since 1980 off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take Tennessee to blow out Vandy.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies + the points over Oregon.  The Huskies come into this game with a lot of momentum, as they blew out Purdue, 49-13, as a 13.5-point favorite, and UCLA, 48-14, as a 10.5-point favorite, in their last two games.  We'll take Washington, as home teams off back to back wins (and also back to back double-digit covers) have cashed 58.4% since 1980 when they weren't favored by 6+ points.  Take the home dog Huskies.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Liberty Flames + the points over Kennesaw St.  The Flames come into this game off 3 straight upset losses.  We'll take Liberty to bounce back, as NCAA Football teams have cashed 60.5 percent as underdogs since 1980 off 3 straight upset losses, if their opponent was off a SU win.  Take the home dog Flames.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Army Black Knights + the points over Texas-San Antonio.  The Black Knights suffered an upset loss at home last week vs. Tulsa, 26-25, as a 10-point favorite.  But Army's been a reliable road underdog in Conference games, cashing 60.8%, while the Roadrunners are 1-7 ATS at home vs. foes off an upset loss.  Additionally, .500 (or better) underdogs of more than 6 points, with a defense that allows at least 6.5 ppg less than their foe, have cashed 67% over the past 46 years off an upset loss.  Take Army.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Duke.  Wake Forest plays this game with revenge from a 23-17 loss in Winston-Salem last year.  Last week, the Deacs rolled up 52 points in a blowout win over Delaware.  Off that big game, we'll take the points with the road underdog on Saturday.  Indeed, revenge-minded underdogs that scored more than 50 points in their previous game, in the regular season, at Game 9 forward, have gone 61-37-2 ATS away from home over the last 46 years.  Take Wake Forest.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats minus the points over South Alabama.  The Jaguars upset Southern Miss last week, 42-35, as a 2.5-point home dog, for their second straight win.  We'll fade the Jags on the road, as they're 5-18 ATS off back to back wins (including 0-7 ATS on the conference road), and they have also cashed just 35% the past 46 years off an upset win.  Take Texas State.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Central Florida Knights + the points over BYU.  The Knights won last week, 17-14, but failed to cover the spread vs. Oklahoma St.  And that was UCF's fourth straight ATS loss.  We'll grab the points with UCF, as teams off 4+ ATS losses, but a SU win in their previous game, have gone 224-180, 55.4% ATS, since 1980.  Additionally, the Knights fall into an 82-38 ATS system of mine.  Grab the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Central Michigan.  The Chippewas come into this game off back-to-back wins, and they've covered 5 in a row.  But Toledo has held its last 3 foes to a combined 15 points.  And it has given up just an average of 10 ppg in its seven conference games this season.  The Rockets are 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings vs. CMU.  And the Chips fall into a negative 44-83 ATS system of mine which fades certain underdogs off back to back SU/ATS wins.  I look for Toledo to blow out Central Michigan.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Ohio State.  The Buckeyes have won 15 straight since losing to Michigan at the end of last season.  And they've gone 12-1-1 ATS in their FBS games.  We'll fade Ohio State in Ann Arbor on Saturday, as defending National Champs have covered just 30.4% since 1980 away from home off back to back ATS wins, if they were unrested.  Grab the points with Michigan.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over Temple.  North Texas has won and covered 5 straight games heading into this season finale, while the Owls have lost their last three games.  The Mean Green have racked up 53 and 56 points in their previous two games, so I won't step in front of this freight train.  Indeed, teams playing their final home game of the season, off back to back SU/ATS wins in which they scored 50+ points, have covered 68.1% since 1980.  Lay the wood.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm (note the early start time), our selection is on the Bowling Green Falcons minus the points over Massachusetts.  The Falcons lost last week, as a 2.5-point home favorite, to Akron, 19-16.  They will look to redeem themselves today in Amherst vs. the 0-11 Minutemen.  No team wants to be the one to lose to an 0-11 opponent, so expect BGSU to be focused this afternoon in its final game of the season.  Additionally, Bowling Green is 16-8 ATS on the road off an upset loss.  And winless teams are 0-22 SU and 1-20-1 ATS in their final home game of the season when getting more than 7 points from a conference foe.  Take the Falcons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the San Jose St. Spartans + the points over San Diego St.  The Spartans played their worst game of the last 46 years (as far back as my database goes) when they were routed, 55-10, by Nevada, and failed to cover the minus 10-point spread by 55 points.  We'll grab the points with San Jose St. as teams that failed to cover the spread by more than 45 points are 12-0-1 ATS vs. foes off a SU win.  Meanwhile, the Aztecs have covered just 6 of 20 conference games when favored by more than 3 points vs. foes off an upset loss.  Take the Spartans + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Western Kentucky.  LSU won last week, 23-22, vs. Arkansas, but did fail to cover for the fourth straight game.  The Hilltoppers enter on a 3-game win streak, and have been installed as a big underdog in Baton Rouge.  We'll take LSU, as the Tigers are 16-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes off 3+ losses, including 5-0 ATS their last five.  And Western Kentucky is 1-6 ATS away from home vs. foes on 4-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks.  Take LSU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Jackets eked out a 36-34 win over Boston College, but failed to cover the 17-point spread by 15 points.  That, however, bodes well for Georgia Tech on Saturday, as it's 23-13 ATS in ACC Conference games after failing to cover the point spread by 11+ points.  Meanwhile, Pitt is 21-32 ATS as an. underdog of +10 (or less) points vs. a foe off an ATS loss.  Take Georgia Tech.

At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks minus the points over Coastal Carolina.  The Gamecocks have been solid as a big favorite over the years, including 46-1 SU and 29-18 ATS when laying more than 11 points to a non-conference foe.  Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina is 1-15 SU and 5-11 ATS when getting more than 11 points.  Take South Carolina to blow out the Chanticleers, and snap its 5-game losing streak this afternoon.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over Kansas St.  The Utes come into this game off back to back blowout, SU/ATS wins over Cincinnati (45-14) and Baylor (55-28).  We'll lay the points with the homestanding Utes, as home teams have gone 108-83-11 ATS in conference games off back to back SU/ATS wins over conference foes by 27+ points.  Take Utah.

At 3:45 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave minus the points over Temple.  The Green Wave come into this game off a 35-24 win over Florida Atlantic.  Tulane has been installed as a road favorite vs. the Owls, and we'll happily lay the points, noting that Tulane is 9-1 ATS as a road favorite in conference games off a win by more than 7 points.  Even better:  the Owls are 1-13 ATS as an underdog of +8 (or more) points vs. a conference foe off a SU win.  Take Tulane to blow out Temple.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles  over South Alabama.  Southern Miss's football coach, Charles Huff, has made it a point this week to challenge his players to get the school's first win vs. the Jaguars (after going 0-5 in the first 5 meetings).  Southern Miss loss its first Sun Belt game last week, when it fell, 41-14, to Texas St., as a 3-point home favorite.  But the Golden Eagles are a super 13-3 ATS when priced from +1.5 to -16.5 off an upset loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS on the road.  Take Southern Miss minus the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida International Panthers minus the points over Jacksonville St. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.