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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-08-23 | Bucs +4 v. Falcons | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 8 m | Show |
NFC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Tom Brady is clearly programmed to break every NFL passing record in the book. In his best outing of the year – 432 yards and three TDs passing, one rushing TD – he completed 34 passes Sunday, adding yet another record to his seemingly endless collection. In the process he won his 19th division title, as the Bucs are now back-to-back division champs for the fi rst time in team history. Atlanta enters as a team playing out the string, just 2-6 SUATS and ITS in its last eight games while throwing green QB Desmond Ridder to the wolves. With the Dirty Birds just 2-13 ATS at home coming off a home game and Brady 3-0 ATS in his career as a dog in season finales, and finally NFL .500 dogs are 5-0 ATS in final games of the season when coming off a win |
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01-07-23 | Chiefs v. Raiders +9.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The fact of the matter is Stidham sliced up the NFL’s best defense. Given the Chiefs’ 0-6 ATS mark of late against sub .500 division foes, while also understanding since winning Super Bowl LIV, the Kansas City Chiefs are 2-27-1 ATS in one-score games, including 0-18-1 ATS against avenging foes., look for the Raiders to improve on their 9-1 ATS record at home against AFC West foes who are not coming off a win of more than three points. If that doesn't seal the deal consider that playing on any NFL division home dog in its final game of the season if they were a playoff team last season and if they are seeking revenge from a .600 or greater opponent is 15-2 since 1980. |
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01-02-23 | Utah v. Penn State +1.5 | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 30 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The three-loss Utes actually improved their numbers on both sides of the ball in 2022; yet fell short of their targeted goal of being the fi rst PAC12 school since 2016 to make their way to the College Football Playoff. And while the Nittany Lions were never a real threat to make the CFP this season, they have a chance to close out the campaign with their fourth 11-win season in the past seven years with a victory against Utah today. It’s been a season of two tales for James Franklin’s troops who started the 2022 season 5-0 and closed it out going 4-0. The one thing that jumps off the page in this contest is PSU’s penchant for staying on a roll as they ride a jaw-dropping 16-3 SU and 17-1 ATS mark into this game when coming off a pair of SUATS wins. It’s numbers like those, and incentive to boot, that puts them on our playlist today. |
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01-02-23 | Tulane +2.5 v. USC | 46-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units In his lone season at Oklahoma, Heisman Trophy winning QB Caleb Williams recorded 1,912 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, four interceptions, 442 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns in 11 games. This season with the Trojans, Williams threw for 4,075 yards, 37 touchdowns (tied for most in the nation), and four interceptions, while running for 372 yards and 10 touchdowns on 109 carries. Consider that first year coaches favored in bowl games are just 16-32 ATS against foes coming off a win, and Pac-12 bowlers who allow over 25 PPG are 20-42 ATS, including 0-14 ATS the last 14. With that, finally review that the bowl team with the Heisman Trophy winner is 0-8 SUATS off SUATS loss since 1980. |
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01-02-23 | Purdue +16 v. LSU | 7-63 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If Brohm DNA runs through brother Brian’s veins it should prove fruitful as big brother Jeff is 11-0 ATS as a dog when coming off a loss – including 10-0 with Purdue. Conference title game losers are 8-2 ATS as double-digit bowl dogs. The biggest hurdle the Makers need to get over is the lack of success by teams in bowl games that won as a dog of more than 6 points in a bowl game the previous season. Meanwhile, LSU enters behind high profile boss Brian Kelly who is 6-0 SU and 2-3-1 ATS in his career against Purdue. The bad news is BK is also just 5-8 ATS in bowl games, including 0-3 ATS when favored by 7-plus points. So, while a huge coaching mismatch is in the making, the fact also remains that the Tigers were one win from capturing the SEC championship and will likely look at this contest as little more than a full uniform scrimmage. Expect the ‘Brohm factor’ to lead to another payday |
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01-02-23 | Mississippi State v. Illinois +2.5 | 19-10 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units All things being equal, we’d be ordering up a big fade against the Bulldogs in this bowl game were it not for the sudden passing of Leach, and the feeling here is the effect of the Grim Reaper’s presence will outweigh any notion of “winning one for the Gipper”. Don’t consider an Over play, either, not with Illinois owning the nation’s No. 1 Scoring Defense (12.25), and the Bulldogs holding four opponents to season-low yardage in 2022. The bottom line is we see Illinois playing up to the standard of excellence they achieved the season in a big win for head coach Bret Bielema. |
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01-01-23 | Vikings v. Packers -180 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 53 h 17 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units QB Aaron Rodgers is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS at home when the Packers are riding a three game win streak. He’s also 32-7-1 SU and 28-12 ATS at home in division games in his NFL career (4-0 SUATS this season), including 18-1 SU and 15-4 ATS in games in which the Packers sport a sub .666 win percentage. Toss in his 29-19-1 ATS mark in games when the Packers own a losing record, including 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS versus .750 or greater foes (5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS at home) and the task looks almost insurmountable for the Vikings today. Sure, Minnesota holds down the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoff picture, but the fact remains they rank DEAD LAST in the league in overall defense and – remember this - no team has ever won an NFL playoff game that owned the worst defense in the league. And don’t fall asleep on the fact that the Vikings are 1-15 ATS in their last sixteen conference losses. Speaking of which, QB Aaron Rodgers is 15-1 SU from Game Thirteen out during the regular season. |
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01-01-23 | Jets v. Seahawks +1.5 | Top | 6-23 | Win | 100 | 53 h 11 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units USA TODAY called out the fact that the Jets handed the Jaguars a Christmas gift two years ago when they foolishly rallied to defeat the Los Angeles Rams, 23-20, just before Christmas and granting them access to QB Trevor Lawrence as the No. 1 overall draft pick. Talk about a gift that keeps on giving to Jacksonville, it’s one that may well haunt the Jets for the next 10-15 years. What may also trouble the Big Planes today is their recent 7-16 SU and 5-18 ATS record in games when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 1-10 SUATS versus greater than .400 foes. That fits perfectly into the Seahawks’ 10-0 ATS record in home games when coming off consecutive underdog losses. Then there is head coach Pete Carroll, who is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS at home in January, including 4-0 SUATS with a losing record and 4-0 SUATS versus sub .600 foes – and our favorite holiday ‘Caroller’ has also never lost four consecutive home games. Finally, consider that playing on any NFL non-division home dog or ‘pick’ if they are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games is 112-82-7 ATS since 1980. Better yet, put these non-division hosts up against a sub. 500 foe in this role and the black ink turns a deep shade of green, going 35-19-3 ATS, including 16-1-2 ATS when they sport a win percentage over .100 and were a dog of 6-plus points in their last game. |
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01-01-23 | Dolphins v. Patriots -145 | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 50 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units So, while the Dolphins control their playoff chances with wins in each of their final two contests, it will all likely be dependent on the status of Tagovailoa who has entered concussion protocol for the second time this season. Meanwhile, Teddy Bridgewater will assume the reins, with the tune “Bridge over Troubled Waters” never more prevalent than it is here. While he brings a 42-23 ATS overall career record in NFL starts into this contest, including 23-8 ATS away, the fact of the matter is he is just 4-8 SUATS in his last twelve starts, including 0-1 SUATS with the Fish this season. Should the winner of this game win next week they will nail down a playoff berth. With that, consider that Pats head coach Bill Belichick is 20-6 SUATS in Last Home Games, including 7-0 ATS with revenge. |
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01-01-23 | Jaguars v. Texans +4 | 31-3 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jags enter 13-6 ATS in games with quintuple-plus division revenge as they have now lost 9 straight times to Houston. Unlike years past, Jacksonville controls its playoff destiny, as a loss here will not matter since next week’s home contest against Tennessee will ultimately decide the AFC South title. What arguably matters more is head coach Doug Pederson would like to extend the Jags win skein to four in a row. But the fact of the matter is each of their last three wins came in underdog roles and today they change clothes. Teams in this role are just 7-16-2 ATS since 1999, including 3-11-1 ATS from Game Ten out. So, while Jack’s muscles are bulging at the moment, we can’t ignore the elephant in the room, namely that the Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-11 SU and 1-10 ATS against foes coming off a SU underdog win. |
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12-31-22 | Ohio State v. Georgia -6 | Top | 41-42 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Bowl Game of the Year Rating: 5 Units This will be Georgia’s third time playing in Mercedes-Benz Stadium this season, with the Bulldogs dominating both Oregon and LSU by a combined margin of 99-30. In addition to a virtually impenetrable defense, veteran QB Stetson Bennett is complimented by a three-headed rushing attack featuring RB with Kenny McIntosh, Daijun Edwards, and Kendall Milton, who have all rushed for more than 500 yards in 2022. Meanwhile, OSU receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka just might be the best receiver tandem in the country for Heisman finalist QB CJ Stroud. Yes, bowlers like UGA who allow fewer than 14.5 PPG that won their conference title game are 19-4 SU and 17-6 ATS all-time, including 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS against foes who allow 14.5 or more PPG. |
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12-31-22 | TCU v. Michigan -7.5 | 51-45 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units No Alabama, Tennessee, Clemson, Utah, etc, but the only 4 teams in the land with less than 2 losses (Michigan & Georgia, the only perfect squads. When Harbaugh took over the reins at Ann Arbor in '15, great things were expected, & realized with 7 straight bowl seasons, with 42-27, 45-23 wins over archrival Ohio St L2 yrs, but couldn't close the deal: 0-5 SU/ATS (-8, -15½, -30, -11½, -15½ pts) in L5 bowls. TCU Horned Frogs were hosed from the playoffs in '14, despite their 11-1 log, proving it with 42-3 (-3½) Peach Bowl rout of Ole Miss. Frog QB Duggan (2nd in Heisman voting) at 30/4, with Wolves' McCarthy at 20/3. No RB Corum (1,436 yds) for Mich, but note UM's #3 "D" vs Tcu's #74. Take the TD. |
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12-31-22 | Iowa -130 v. Kentucky | 21-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With Levis, who was 17-7 in his starts for the Cats since transferring from Penn State in 2021, having left the team, redshirt FR Kaiya Sheron will fill in. Complicating matters, UK head coach Mark Stoops fired offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello after just one season. He sure as hell won’t hire Iowa OC Brian Ferentz for a replacement, not when Ferentz presided over an offense so horrible in 2022 that one fan showed up for a game holding a sign that read, “I’m only here for the punter.” So how did a 17 PPG offense ranked No. 130 in First Down Offense land a bowl game? A bad-to-the-bone Hawkeyes defense, that’s how. Iowa is tied for No. 2 nationally in Defensive TDs (5) and holds the No. 4 spot in overall Total Team Defense. Jack Campbell won the Butkus Award as the nation’s top linebacker and the ‘D’ held 5 foes to season-low yards. Kentucky’s defense also came to play this season, holding 5 foes to season-low yards. We’ll summon the ‘R’ word to cement our pick: Iowa HC Kirk Ferentz is 6-1 ATS with revenge off a loss of 7 or more points, while Wildcats HC Stoops is just 4-9 ATS versus a foe off a loss. |
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12-31-22 | Kansas State +7 v. Alabama | 20-45 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Always an unusual season, when the Crimson Tide of Alabama is not a participant in the Final Four Playoffs (just the 2nd time in 8 seasons). Years of excellence continue on, scoring 30+ pts in 46 of their last 53 games, with their only SU losses TY: 52-49 in L0:00 at Tenn, & 32-31 on 2-pt OT conversion at Lsu. Heisman winner Young: just 2/0 & 1/1 in those losses. Can 'Tide prepare properly for this, after such close misses, along with multiple transfer portal cases? Kansas State Wildcats took TCU for Big12 Title in OT. QBs Howard & Martinez are more than capable, as is the 2nd coming of Darren Sproles in Deuce Vaughn. Take the TD. |
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12-30-22 | Clemson -5.5 v. Tennessee | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It took Dabo Swinney the entire season to pull the plug on erratic starter D.J. Uiagalelei for Cade Klubnik, a former 5* recruit for the Tigers. Swinney must have informed all parties concerned that the move was permanent, causing Uiagalelei to immediately hit the transfer portal. For the Vols from Rocky Top, backup QB Joe Milton, who transferred in from Michigan, takes over for Hendon Hooker, who was enjoying a marvelous season until suffering an ACL tear against South Carolina. Tennessee does boast the No. 1 ranked offense in the nation (538 YPG), but that was largely behind QB Hooker. In addition, WR Jalin Hyatt, who won the Biletnikoff Award, is undecided. We know the Volunteers have played on some big stages this year, but this sort of thing is ‘been there, done that’ for the Tigers, as Swinney stands 29-9 ATS away off a double-digit SUATS win, including 12-1 ATS the last 13. Both teams have played their share of undisciplined football in 2022, but Tennessee takes the trophy as the nation’s No. 124 team in most Penalties Per Game (8.00). Yes, we know Clemmie is just 3-4 ITS (In The Stats) in its last seven games of the season; however, that’s not enough to keep us off the striped cats. |
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12-30-22 | South Carolina +3.5 v. Notre Dame | 38-45 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units First-year coaches favored in bowl games are 16-32 ATS vs. foes coming off a win, including 2-12 ATS against those off a SU underdog win. Uh oh. Then there’s the matter of Notre Dame’s negligent 7-15 SUATS failure in its last 17 bowl games, including 3-14 ATS vs. foes off a win. And we wouldn’t be doing our job if we left out this damning stat: the Irish are ranked No. 129 in Red Zone Defense, worst of all bowler. Head coach Shane Beamer owns a solid 6-1 ATS record vs. non-conference foes and his team won four games SU as underdogs this campaign. Head coach Marcus Freeman will have the Irish back in the thick of it before long, but it’s a little early to back them here considering SC has gone 6-2 SUATS in its previous 8 bowl games. |
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12-30-22 | Pittsburgh v. UCLA -7.5 | 37-35 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quite a cross country trip for the U.C.L.A. Bruins & the Pittsburgh Panthers, but that didn't keep them from facing each other 14 times, many in season openers, from 1958 thru 1972, with the Bruins holding a 9-5 edge. For Pitt, this makes it 13 bowls in 15 years (4-8 SU, 3-9 ATS), while for the Uclans, this is their first such holiday affair since '17 (35-17 Cactus Bowl loss to Kansas St). Similar seasons for these 2, with Bruins reaching 9th in the polls off their 6-0 start, flattening out, with nary a cover since Nov 5th. Panther in a 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) windup, but have lost QB Slovis, as well as AA DL Kancey. Simply cannot ignore such significant turns. |
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12-30-22 | Maryland v. NC State | 16-12 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Maryland is staring down some ugly ATS numbers here: 1-6-1 SUATS as a bowler if not favored by 3 or more points, sub .600 bowlers off a shutout win are 1-7 ATS, and head Terrapin Locksley is a back-in-the-shell 3-39 SU and 15-27 ATS versus a foe with the better record. Yikes. The bad news for State is its miserable 1-8 ITS (In The Stats) record versus bowlers in 2022, but with Doeren boasting a 6-0 ATS record in bowl games versus a foe off a SUATS win, and the Pack having cashed a ticket in 10 of its last 13 bowls, we’ll back DD over Mike Locksley any day of the week. |
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12-29-22 | Washington v. Texas -146 | 27-20 | Loss | -146 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Washington had a phenomenal season which earned first-year coach Kalen DeBoer a contract extension, winning ten games and seeing QB Michael Penix Jr lead the nation in passing. They have won six in a row, but the best news is that Penix will return for his senior season next year. However, the Huskies find themselves squarely locked inside the fact that Pac-12 bowl teams are 1-23 ATS when facing an opponent coming off a win. Even worse, Pac-12 bowlers who allow more than 25 PPG are 20-42 ATS, including 0-14 ATS in their last 14 bowl appearances. Finally, this is virtually a home game for the Horns, (they posted dominating wins here the 2020 and 2019 editions of the Alamo Bowl), and even if running backs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson opt out, Sarkisian has plenty of weapons to slice through a less-than-stellar Washington defense |
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12-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Florida State -9.5 | 32-35 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units These 2 powers meet for the 8th time; first since '11, & 5th in a bowl, including the '00 Orange, when the Oklahoma Sooners (+10) beat the Florida Sate Seminoles 13-2, for the National Championship (Stoops' first year). By the way, the 'Noles entered that one with a 42-10 ppg edge. This makes it 26 straight bowl years for the Sooners (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS L10), while the Sems entered TY off 4 consecutive losing seasons. But 18 returning starters have turned it around, with a 5-0 windup (43.6 ppg), ranking 13th & 14th in total "O" & "D". Last 3 of Okies' 6 losses have come by just 3 pts, but cannot hide a "D" which ranks 120th in the land. 'Noles! |
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12-29-22 | Minnesota v. Syracuse +11 | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For P.J. Fleck, it was also a tale of two cities, especially on offense, as they averaged 543 YPG in their first four games of the season and 335 YPG in their last eight. However, his stop unit held up their end of the bargain, finishing 5th in the nation in Team Defense. Still, we feel this number is a bit too high, since Syracuse is 13-3-1 SU and 13-4 ATS in bowl games since 1988. For head coach Dino Babers, there will be some adjustments with OC Robert Anae leaving for NC State, but quarterbacks’ coach Jason Beck has been promoted to the position after doing a great job overseeing QB Garrett Schrader this season. Besides that, the most interesting match-up at Yankee Stadium will be the running backs, with Sean Tucker recording his second straight 1,000-yard season for the Orange and Minnesota’s Mohamed Ibrahim notching over 100 in each of his first 11 games. QB Tanner Morgan was always the weak link on the Gopher offense, but with Athan Kaliakmanis taking over, Minny should be in good shape. Finally, here is an obscure fact you might consider: Bowl favorites off a win of 7 or more points are 0-6 ATS on Thursdays. |
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12-28-22 | Ole Miss -3 v. Texas Tech | 25-42 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A 1-4 finish with losses to LSU, Alabama, Arkansas and rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl showed Lane Kiffin he still has plenty to accomplish in Oxford. Bowlers coming off 3 SU losses are 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS versus a foe off back-to-back SUATS wins. Conversely, TTRR enters on a 3-0 SUATS win skein to close the season. That’s the good news. The bad news is, like a grim reaper, that bowlers coming in on 3-0 SUATS win skein are 9-27 SU and 8-28 ATS when facing an opponent coming off a SU favorite loss. Worse, the Techsters were outgained in all three of the wins, and not to pile on, Texas Tech is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 bowl games. |
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12-28-22 | North Carolina +13 v. Oregon | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We feel like this is a lean to the Heels, since the underdog is 7-0-2 ATS in Tar Heels/Pac-12 contests and conference title game losers are 8-2 ATS as double-digit bowl dogs. However, be aware that UNC is 0-4 SUATS in bowl games when they allow more than 25 points. Oregon’s recovery from that pounding they took from Georgia in the opener was remarkable, but the campaign lost its luster after losing to Washington in November and a total collapse against the Beavers in the Civil War finale. That drives us into a take here. |
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12-28-22 | Kansas v. Arkansas -131 | 53-55 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Kansas had a brilliant 5-0 start but lost 6 of their last seven games after the tough Big 12 schedule kicked in (4th toughest schedule in the nation). The Razorbacks had an even tougher row to hoe, with opponents sporting a combined win percentage of 62.4%, which was the country’s second-toughest slate. Keep in mind that when two .500 bowl teams meet like this, the underdog is 0-5 ATS if coming off consecutive losses. That said, we feel that the combination of facing such an extremely tough schedule and coming off an upset loss fi gures to bring the Razorbacks in fully focused here. Across the fi eld, the Jayhawks are bowling for the fi rst time since 2008 and are just happy not to be home for the holidays. The future is bright for both teams with the two quarterbacks both returning next season, but as for today, we think this game has the look of a serious crushing written all over it. |
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12-28-22 | Central Florida v. Duke -160 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 25 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Blue Devils were 3-1 ATS and ITS (In The Stats) versus fellow bowlers this season. On the flip side, the Knights went just 4-3 this season after a 5-1 start, and limp into bowl season following a beating in the AAC title game, losing to Tulane 45-28 while allowing 648 yards of offense. Teams who won a bowl game last year straight up as underdogs of a TD or more are 14-28 ATS when coming off an ATS loss. These two schools meet for the first time, and the coaching match-up today is intriguing: veteran Gus Malzahn has taken his teams to the post-season in all 11 years at the helm, while Elko and his players are finding a completely new experience ahead of them. We look for the Dukies to complete a dream season with a victory. |
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12-27-22 | Oklahoma State v. Wisconsin -185 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units All indications are that senior Chase Wolf (just 31 passes thrown) will start in place of Graham Mertz for the Badgers. That brings this match-up down to defense, where Wisconsin has always been strong – their 3rd ranked overall defense in games versus fellow bowlers this season has held 3 foes to season low yardage in 2022. Both teams present good numbers here, including Mike Gundy’s 15-8-1 ATS record off a SU favorite loss and 12-5 spread mark off back-to-back losses. He has also covered the number in six straight bowl games. Meanwhile, Wisky is 8-2 ATS as a bowler versus a foe coming off SUATS loss, and Big Ten bowlers are 22-12 ATS against Big 12 bowlers, including 5-0 ATS when coming off a SU favorite loss. Badgers get the win in their 21st straight bowl appearance. |
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12-27-22 | East Carolina v. Coastal Carolina +7.5 | 53-29 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the Pirates, fifth-year senior QB Holton Ahlers completed 67.1 percent of his passes this season for 3,408 yards, tossed 23 touchdowns compared to fi ve picks, and he also rushed for 5 TDs. The Pirates will not have NFL prospect TE Ryan Brown for this game, as he has opted out to prepare for the draft, but Ahlers will not be without his top two targets: wide receiver Isaiah Winstead recorded 82 catches for 1,012 yards, while C.J. Johnson will enter the bowl game 67 yards away from his first 1,000-yard receiving campaign. The Chanticleers’ rough finish may be of concern to some, but it might work to their advantage, as conference title game losers are 8-2 ATS as double-digit bowl dogs. Take the points |
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12-27-22 | Utah State +7.5 v. Memphis | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Looking back, we realize that the Aggies go from the top of the mountain after capturing the Mountain West title and winning the Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl game to this minor bowl game. Their star player this season was speedy RB Calvin Tyler, Jr, who rushed for over 1,000 yards and 7 TDs. Keep in mind that Mountain West bowl teams are 5-0 SUATS against the AAC and Anderson is 4-1 ATS himself on the road versus AAC foes. We don’t figure them to win this game, but the points are simply too good to pass. |
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12-27-22 | Georgia Southern v. Buffalo +4.5 | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bulls were a “mission team” in 2022 after last season’s 4-8 effort snapped a three-year bowl skein. Following an 0-3 start, they went on to win their next 5 games before hitting the skids again with another 3-game losing streak. They literally rallied back with a late 23-22 win over Akron to cement this bid, a game that was postponed by the 6 feet of snow that fell on Buffalo in mid-November’s monumental storm, then rescheduled due to its importance for the Buffalo program. Comparing spread records this season versus bowl teams, Buffy was 5-1 ATS, while GSU was 1-4 ATS against bowlers. Our money is on the Bulls |
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12-26-22 | Chargers v. Colts +4 | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We realize things are looking rosy for the Chargers, who close out the campaign against three 4-win lightweights in the Colts, the Rams and the Broncos. The Bolts are 4-0-1 ATS away Mondays, and 12-2-2 ATS away versus AFC South. On the other side of the bed, the Colts are 0-3 ATS home on Mondays, 1-7 ATS after scoring 35-plus points, and 1-7 ATS as home dogs 4 or fewer points. However, while it all looks like an avalanche of evidence working against the Colts, the Chargers are still a team that cannot blow out opponents, only winning one game all year by more than six points, and that came back in Week 4 against the awful Texans. Look for the Horseshoes to toss a surprise ringer tonight. |
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12-26-22 | New Mexico State +3 v. Bowling Green | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 29 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Like NMSU, the Bee Gees closed like a racehorse, winning four of their six games to earn a bowl bid for the first time since 2015. They dropped 4-touchdown losses early in the season to UCLA and Mississippi State, but once MACtion got underway, the Falcons went 6-2 in conference play. To be quite honest, if you look at the statistical ranking of the Falcons, you might be surprised to find out that they actually qualified for a bowl game, since the Bee Gees rank 105th in offense and 106th in the nation on D. We also look at Kill’s excellent record versus MAC foes: 20-7 SU and 16-10-1 ATS, including 18-2 SU if that opponent is .500 or below. With that, we’ll look for the Aggies to notch a win in only their second bowl game since 1960. |
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12-25-22 | Bucs v. Cardinals +7.5 | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucs’ six wins this season, the last five have been against losing teams a 26-44 winning record combined. Through it all, the GOAT who refused to hang ‘em up when he had the perfect opportunity, leads a team that is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite, 1-7 ATS last eight games on Sundays, 1-5-1 ATS versus NFC West foes and 1-5 ATS versus sub .400 opponents. Sheesh. While the Cardinals may be going thru the motions, at least they bring a 9-1 ATS log as home dogs of more than 2 points, and a 4-0 ATS record in this series. |
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12-25-22 | Packers +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 46 h 26 m | Show |
Inter-Conference Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units For the first time in over two-and-half months the Pack finally have a winning streak. The Cheese Heads are the No. 10 seed in the NFC, currently 1.5 games behind the Commanders for the NFC’s final wild-card spot. Green Bay enters 6-1 ATS as a dog in games when favored last game. Miami returns home off a winless three game road trek knowing they are 0-4 ATS coming off three straight road games, as well as 0-4 ATS when coming off three losses. And that’s not to mention the fact they are 1-5 ATS as a host in this series. With Rodgers suddenly smelling playoff blood, know that he is 9-4-1 ATS as a dog from game 15 out, including 6-0-1 ATS when the Packers own a win percentage of .666 or less. |
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12-24-22 | Raiders v. Steelers -125 | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In the cold, cold confines of Pittsburgh, on a Saturday night with Santa set to take off on his annual snow covered Christmas Eve delivery run, expect the fair-weathered dome protected Raiders to succumb to another Mike Tomlin push here tonight. For openers, QB Kenny Pickett is back for the Black and Gold where he stands 3-0 SUATS in his NFL career against sub .500 foes while the Burghers are 6-2 ATS on Saturdays. With Vegas just 3-12 ATS versus losing foes, look for the Tomln tribute to continue tonight. |
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12-24-22 | Middle Tennessee State v. San Diego State -6.5 | 25-23 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Aztecs (7-5) were two different teams this year -- one before Mississippi State transfer Jalen Mayden took over at quarterback and another after he got the job from Virginia Tech transfer Braxton Burmeister. Prior to Mayden's insertion, San Diego State went 2-3 and averaged just 19 points per game with an inefficient passing attack. With Mayden running the offense, the Aztecs posted a 5-2 mark and scored 23 points per game. Mayden has completed 62.9 percent of his passes for 1,721 yards and 10 touchdowns, giving the offense some big-play potential it didn't have in recent years. He has thrown seven interceptions. Aztecs coach Brady Hoke said the bowl trip is a reward for his team and also a chance to win the last game of the year. To cap it off, MTSU was mugged in games against fellow bowlers this season (0-3 SUATS and In The Stats). |
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12-24-22 | Eagles +4.5 v. Cowboys | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Cowboys, who have clinched a playoff berth, are 6-12 outright in Prescott’s NFL career in games in which he has more turnovers than touchdown passes, including 0-3 SUATS this season. The problem today for the Cowboys, though, is Dallas is just 2-10 ATS and 4-8 ATS at home in this series when Philly sports the better record. Yes, there are a lot of back-and-forth numbers bandying about in this fray, but until Dallas improves its to 8-25-1 ATS mark as a home favorite when coming off a loss, we’ll be flying with the Eagles. Especially knowing that Dallas is 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS at home on Saturdays during the regular season since 1980. |
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12-24-22 | Giants +4 v. Vikings | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Vikes have clinched the division and a playoff spot s0 can they thwart the path of others looking to earn their playoff stripes? Owning the league’s 32nd-ranked (worst) defense, they concede all of the defensive numbers to the Giants in this contest. Minny has been out-yarded in 5 of their last 6 games and are 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven games against NFC East opponents. With the G-Men barely clinging to the No. 6 spot in the NFC playoff pictures, and 7-1 ATS on Saturdays, look for Big Blue to improve on its 7-2 ATS mark as a dog under rookie head coach Brian Daboll. Grab the points. |
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12-24-22 | Lions -140 v. Panthers | 23-37 | Loss | -140 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Meet the Lions, who are at the precipice of becoming the first NFL team to make the playoffs after starting the season 1-6. They are currently riding the arm of Jared Goff, the only QB in the league with no turnovers the last six games. Winners of six of its previous seven games, while going 7-0 ATS, they are on a major roll, and we’re not interested in stepping in front of them with a team that is 3-11 SU and 4-10 ATS in games when coming off one loss exact. Additionally Carolina is 0-6 ATS in Last Home Games and the Lions are 5-2 ATS on the NFC South road. |
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12-24-22 | Bengals v. Patriots +3 | Top | 22-18 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Currently the Pats are the No. 8 seed in the AFC playoff picture but they must close out the season against the likes of these 10-4 Bengals, 8-6 Miami, and 11-3 Buffalo. Thus, it starts today against a Cincinnati squad who enters just 7-29 SU and 12-22-2 ATS away against the AFC East, including 1-6 SU and 0-6-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win. Yes, the Hoodies need to roll up their sleeves and get to work against a Joe Burrow-led Bengals’ bunch on an AFC best 6-game win skein. However, consider that playing against any NFL team that is 6-0 SUATS in its last six games if they are facing a sub .700 non-division opponent is 10-1 ATS since 1980. |
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12-23-22 | Wake Forest -125 v. Missouri | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tigers finished strong after getting thumped by the Vols, and an earlier October win on the road at South Carolina looks even better now when you consider that the Gamecocks beat both Tennessee and Clemson in their fi nal two games. Unfortunately, SEC bowlers coming off a SU underdog win are 3-9-2 ATS versus a foe coming off a SUATS loss, and Mizzou is 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS as a bowler coming off a win. Mizzou HC Eliah Drinkwitz is also 1-5 SUATS against an opponent coming off a SUATS loss if he has the better record. |
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12-23-22 | Houston -7 v. UL-Lafayette | 23-16 | Push | 0 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It has been a wildly uneven year in Lafayette, LA, but give props to Coach Michael Desormeaux for holding together the shards left by Billy Napier’s departure to Florida. UH triumphs if Clayton Tune is hitting the scales and avoiding the sour notes. The Cougars QB has 37 TD passes, tied with the top two Heisman candidates – winner Caleb Williams and third-place CJ Stroud, but has thrown a pick in his last four games. UL’s offense is more balanced, having 15 players with 100 or more scrimmage yards this season, tied with SMU and Texas Tech. Discipline (sometimes) and emotion versus balance makes for an intriguing matchup. |
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12-22-22 | Jaguars +1.5 v. Jets | 19-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show | |
Trevor Lawrence is a kind of unhinged Justin Herbert with a more imaginative offensive coordinator, making them extremely dangerous behind a head coach whose been there and done that. Since Week 9, Lawrence leads the NFL in passer rating (111.2) and completion percentage, having thrown 14 touchdowns and just one interception. Those are numbers Jets’ head coach Robert Saleh would die for these days. And speaking of dying, Saleh completely blew last week’s game when he mismanaged a full array of three timeouts with under two minutes remaining in last week’s puzzling loss against the Lions. Despite the Jags’ putrid road record (2-21 SU in their last 23 away games), we’ll rely instead on playing against any NFL .500 favorite off a loss in Game Fifteen of the season, that's because teams in this situation are 16-45-4 ATS in this role dating back to 1980. Worse, send these .500 choke artists home off a loss and they fall to 7-28-2 ATS. And if these same teams are facing a sub .500 opponent they are a heart-stopping 2-19-1 ATS in this role since 1980. So look for the Jags to continue their winning ways at the expense of the league’s biggest quarterback bust since the days of JaMarcus Russell: Zach Wilson. |
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12-22-22 | Air Force +4.5 v. Baylor | Top | 30-15 | Win | 100 | 78 h 15 m | Show |
Bowl Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units The military teams take advantage of success, going a combined 29-9 ATS when coming off a win. AFA is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 bowl games and in addition to being stingy at giving the ball back, they carry the top overall defense in the country. This bowl game is to honor the military and they give back by going 6-3 ATS in the last 9, including 4-1 ATS as the dog. Meanwhile, Da Bears are a sub-standard 0-3 SUATS as single digit favorites while the Big 12 has been small ATS versus military teams, going 0-3. If you are a trend lover, BU is 3-14 ATS on Thursdays plus this game is at TCU’s home field, where Baylor has lost five of the last seven, both SU and ATS. If that’s not a strong persuader, consider that Playing on any greater than .667 college military team in a bowl game that scored fewer than 50 points in its last game if they are not off a loss and their team’s overall net Yards Per Rush is greater than 1.0. is 17-0 ATS since 1980. |
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12-21-22 | South Alabama v. Western Kentucky +4.5 | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 56 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units WKU has scored 45+ points in four bowl games since 2014, most in FBS during that span. WKU QB Austin Reed, who turned down new Louisville Head Coach Jeff Brohm’s request to transfer, meaning Reed is returning to the Hilltoppers with his 4,247 pass yards and 36 TDs. While Reed may not know this, sticking with Coach Tyson Helton can pay off, since Tyson often puts foes in a corner, going 18-5 SU and 16-6-1 ATS vs. a team off an ATS defeat. WKU is generally good at putting money in people’s pockets with a 3-0 SUATS mark versus the devilish .666-win percentage types and 13-2 ATS as a dog vs. the Fun Belt. Meantime, South Alabama is seeking the first bowl win in program history. The Jaguars are a toothless 0-2 SUATS in bowl games and have also struggled versus C-USA, going 1-3 SUATS against .500 or better. |
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12-20-22 | Toledo v. Liberty +4 | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 31 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Toledo won the MAC for Head Coach Jason Candle but MACtion seems to run out of steam after November. Toledo is 3-9 ATS in bowl games since 2002, including 1-7 ATS off a win of 7 or more points. MAC Bowlers are 6-28 SU and 8-25-1 ATS vs. foes coming off a loss. Liberty has a much more distinguished post-season history, going 3-0 SUATS, 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS versus MAC opponents since joining FBS. |
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12-19-22 | Rams v. Packers -7 | 12-24 | Win | 100 | 56 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Rested home teams on Monday Night games are 25-12 ATS when coming off a SUATS win, including 19-7 ATS as a favorite of 4 or more points. Toss in the fact that the Pack is 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in this series since 2007 and you can see where we’re headed. Our QB League check is reminding us that Aaron Rodgers is 23-12-3 ATS in his career against NFC West opponents while Mayfield is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in his last five games when coming off a win. We seal the deal with the fact that future Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers is 10-4-1 ATS when coming off a Bye week in his career, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS at home. |
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12-19-22 | Connecticut +13 v. Marshall | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Armed with one of the top defenses in the country, Marshall will take on a surprisingly improved UConn team in the Myrtle Beach Bowl on Monday in Conway, S.C. UConn (6-6) is bowl-eligible for the first time since 2015 under first-year coach Jim Mora Jr. Before losing their regular season finale to Army, the Huskies had a stretch of five wins in six games, capped off by an upset victory over then-ranked No. 19 Liberty. And who did the Huskies play in that 2015 bowl game? Marshall. The Thundering Herd (8-4) have been a regular attendee during bowl season recently. This will be the 11th time in the past 14 seasons that Marshall has gone bowling -- a streak that began in 2009 and stretches across three head-coaching tenures. The Herd have lost their last three bowl games, though, and are looking for their first postseason win since 2018. To clinch this pick consider that Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game while Thundering Herd are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in December. |
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12-18-22 | Bengals v. Bucs +4 | Top | 34-23 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
NFL Upset of the Month Rating: 5 Units Bengals are 5-0 SUATS the last fi ve games, and that may sound good to Joe Public, but not to the savvy handicapper as non-rested NFL teams on a 5-0 SUATS win streak have puked as non-division favorites of 5 or fewer points, going just 10-20-1 ATS in this role. On the other side of this hardto-like take are the Bucs, who were totally throttled in last week’s 28-point loss at San Francisco. It doesn’t get much worse than that. In fact, it was the third-worst loss in Brady’s NFL career. And adding more misery, it occurred at the hands of 7th round rookie QB Brock Purdy. By now we all know of Brady’s jaw-dropping 11-1 ATS career mark as a home dog. But don't forget that Tom Brady is 16-3 SU and 18-1 ATS as a pick or dog off a loss in his NFL career, including 10-0 SUATS off a loss of more than 7 points. |
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12-18-22 | Cardinals +2 v. Broncos | 15-24 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Broncos have been installed as favorites for the sixth time this season, bringing with it a tawdry 0-5 ATS mark as chalk under head coach Nathaniel Hackett. Yes, it’s Colt McCoy time once again for Arizona, and for our money he’s more than welcome. That’s because he is 3-1 SUATS as a starter with the Cardinals. Coupled with Kingsbury’s 14-9 SU and 16-6-1 ATS road dog log with Zona, including 9-0 ATS versus losing foes. |
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12-18-22 | Patriots +2.5 v. Raiders | 24-30 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Las Vegas is 1-7 ATS mark when coming off a SU favorite loss, as well as 1-8-1 ATS versus AFC East opponents, and just 1-5 ATS when tackling foes coming off a Monday Night contest. Meanwhile, The Hoodie brings a razor-sharp 9-1 SU and 7-2 ATS career mark in games against any team wearing a Raiders helmet, while winning all four times in games in which the Pats sport the better record. |
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12-18-22 | Lions +2 v. Jets | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is not a matchup that NFL fans would have circled on their calendars heading into the season, but it is going to be an electric atmosphere on Sunday. I would rather fade the Jets than the Lions right now, especially with some of the injury issues that New York is dealing with, most notably to White, who is out for this game. Detroit’s offense has been among the best in the NFL all year, and the Lions have gotten even better of late. They have covered the spread in six straight games and are the pick to cover the number on Sunday. |
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12-18-22 | Cowboys v. Jaguars +4 | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Jaguars’ QB Trevor Lawrence, has over the course of his last three games sport a 111.7 QB Rating with 0 INTs. Meanwhile, the not-so-big news in the Dallas receiver room is that WR TY Hilton will be joining the Cowboys, not Odell Beckham, Jr. The feeling here is OBJ may still be in play for America’s Team, but not until he’s able to take the field. Yes, the Boys are confident, riding an 8-game ITS (In The Stats) win skein entering today’s game. But we can’t ignore that playing against any sub .800 NFL non-division road favorite coming off three straight home games from Game 11 out is 12-1-1 since 1980. |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills -7 | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Buffalo pulled a win-no cover against the Jets last week, (Miami 0-6 ATS off SUATS loss versus a win-no-cover foe) and now own a one-game lead over the Fish. If you got to see that game, you know the weather in Buffalo was miserable – and it’s going to get worse tonight. All of which spells trouble for the Floridians. Hey, it’s bad enough that they have to play a third straight road game, where they are 1-6 SUATS in this role of late, but it’s borderline criminal to send them up into the arctic-cold of a city that may as well be in Canada. Buffalo QB Josh Allen will take time out from his busy commercial shoots to take care of a little business, namely revenge from a loss to Miami back in September. With the Bills now 5-1 ATS playing at home off a home game, look for the Dolphins to go down again. |
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12-17-22 | BYU +4.5 v. SMU | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units History is not riding with the Ponies as they are 0-5 ATS as a front-runner plus 0-3 SU all-time in this series. SMU is also 0-4 ATS versus foes off an ATS win, and 0-6 UNDER on a neutral fi eld. It’s Mustangs’ boss Rhett Lashlee’s first bowl game as a head coach, and first timers are 16-32 ATS vs. teams coming off a win. BYU is 5-0 ATS as a dog off three wins and 5-1 ATS versus a .500 or better AAC team not coming off consecutive wins, plus Cougars head coach Kalani Sitake is a stern 16-7 ATS when a dog of 12 points or less. He will be without star RB Lopini Kotoa but is holding out hope his number one QB Jaren Hall can play on a bum ankle. Finally, BYU is 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS vs. foes with an identical record, including 5-0 when the Cougars are coming off a SUATS win. |
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12-17-22 | Florida +9 v. Oregon State | 3-30 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units If UF finds the red zone, they’ll find the nation’s best red zone defense but that’s about the best number for Beavers fans because the gambling numbers favor the orange and blue. OSU West is 0-4 SU vs SEC foes, 1-4 SUATS in bowls against a team not coming off a double-digit loss. The Pac-12 is 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS vs. the SEC… and it gets a little worse for Oregon State. UF is 5-1 ATS versus Pac-12 teams, all as the underdog, and 7-2 ATS as a bowler not favored by 7 or more points. First year head coaches are 10-4 ATS as a double-digit dog and UF coach Billy Napier is 17-6 ATS as a puppy backed up by a powerful 8-0 ATS run in the last eight. The Pac-12 also limps in with a 15-34-1 ATS record as a bowl favorite. This is a classic conflict of favorable numbers for UF, but the other team is favored and facing a QB that’s never played a meaningful down since his senior year at Chaparral High in Scottsdale, AZ. And our head coach is 17-5 ATS as a dog. |
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12-17-22 | Colts +4 v. Vikings | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Colts have dropped three straight, while failing to reach the 20-point mark in scoring. Still, the blowout loss at Dallas was a 4th-quarter fluke (Cowboys outscored Indy, 33-0) and defeats against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia came down to the final minutes. The Colts are on an 11-0 ATS run when playing off a double-digit loss, plus they’ve cashed SEVEN straight tickets versus NFC North opponents. The Colts also counter with the league’s 7th ranked stop unit, 89 YPG superior to that of Minnesota. |
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12-16-22 | Troy +2.5 v. UTSA | 18-12 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Trojans held three teams to season low yardage this year. Troy’s defensive 11 held the seven bowl teams they faced to 17 PPG/326 YPG. They’re 5-0 ATS when receiving points and after all isn’t receiving what the holiday season is all about? UTSA struggles defensively against bowlers, 29 PPG/409 YPG and has yet to win a bowl game, going 0-3 and that includes not covering once. Troy’s first year head coach Jon Sumrall knows his Trojans have won their last four bowl games. |
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12-16-22 | Miami-OH v. UAB -10.5 | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Trent Dilfer is perhaps the most maligned winning QB in Super Bowl history fairly or unfairly, but after a strong stint coaching HS ball in Tennessee, he’s the coach in waiting for UAB. Bryant Vincent has this bowl assignment, and his Blazers have gone 3-0 ATS in bowls since 2018. Yes, the RedHawks are 4-0 ATS in bowls since 2011, but this year against bowl teams M-OH has had its problems going 0-5 SU, 1-4 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats). Chuck Martin’s Miamians are also a scary 3-8 In the Stats this season and against fellow bowlers are an average -131. Yecch. Toss in the MAC’s inability to conquer C-USA in the bowls, going 5-18 SU and 7-15-1 ATS, and it’s hard to get excited about Miami winning. Meanwhile, the Blazers are a hearty 15-7-1 ATS as double-digit chalk, including 3-0 ATS in non-conference contests. UAB has also held four foes to season-low yardage, and Martin seems to be conservative in bowl games for some odd reason. Blazers’ players who plan on coming back next season will be very invested in putting on a good show for the incoming Dilfer, and motivation is perhaps the biggest non-numerical reason to pick with or against a team during bowl season. |
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12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | 21-13 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seattle is 4-0 ATS at home off a home game, as well 8-2-2 ATS in Thursday pressure cookers. Frisco has failed to cover in three straight Thursday appearances, and the Niners are a lousy 2-7 ATS as favorites versus a foe off a SU favorite loss. Look, we don’t expect Brock Purdy to match last week’s eye-popping performance against a desperate Seattle ‘D’, and 49ers all-world star Deebo Samuel is out with a sprained ankle and MCL, though he is expected back before the playoffs. No Deebo and a 2-game cushion for San Francisco in the division race means the hungry, hungry Seahawks find a way to win tonight. |
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12-12-22 | Patriots -125 v. Cardinals | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 57 h 48 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month Rating: 4 Units When up against the wall, we’ll back Bilichick with every shot. For openers, he is 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS in his last 15 contests when coming off two losses, including 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS away. And then there is his 8-1 ATS career record away with a .500 record when coming off a loss. On the flip side, Arizona coach Kliff Kingsbury checks in at 12-18 ATS home with the Redbirds, including 5-15 ATS when not taking more than two points. Kingsbury is also 1-3 SUATS on Mondays, including 0-3 SUATS the last three. With the Pats 8-1 ATS when coming off a home loss, there’s no better time to take the Pats. Finally, Pats head coach Bill Belichick is 22-9 SUATS against NFC West foes in his NFL career, including 13-0 SU and 12-1 SUATS versus those coming off a loss |
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12-11-22 | Panthers v. Seahawks -3.5 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
Mismatch of the Week Rating: 5 Units So why is it, that the Seahawks a measly 3.5-point favorite at home against the 4-8 Panthers? Is Vegas telling us something? They may be trying, but we’re not buying. Not with Carolina 0-3 SUATS in NFC West division duke outs this season, and 0-3 SUATS the last three games in this series. And not with the Panthers a pussycat-like 0-4 ATS in games when coming off a Bye week. Turn it around and you’ll find a Seahawks squad 7-3 ATS against foes coming off a Bye week. Better yet, the Seahawks are 25-3 SU and 21-6-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive ATS losses under head coach Pete Carroll, including 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS at home. |
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12-11-22 | Bucs +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 7-35 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 3 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Brady is simply the best as an underdog, going 41-17-1 ATS in his illustrious career, including 19-4-1 ATS when his team is seeking revenge and 17-5 ATS when his team is coming off an ATS loss. He also stands 21-6 SU in his career in games in which his team is .500 on the season. Perhaps even more impressive is Brady’s 45-14 SU and 43-12-4 ATS mark in games against foes with a better record, including 24-6 ATS when taking points. With Monday night’s stirring comeback win over the Saints, the Bucs currently hold down the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoff picture while the Niners lay claim to the No. 2 seed. Frisco is just 1-7 ATS as non-division home chalk of fewer than four points and Tampa Bay is 7-1-2 ATS as a dog after being a favorite the previous game. Finally consider that playing against any .666 or greater single-digit NFL regular season home team coming off consecutive home wins if they are facing an opponent coming off a loss is 14-2-1 since 1983. |
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12-11-22 | Jaguars v. Titans -170 | 36-22 | Loss | -170 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jacksonville squad that stands 0-11 ATS in the second of consecutive away games. Once again we’ll take a stand and back the better team, one who brings a 9-0 ATS record into this division duel in games when both teams were taking points in their last game. Besides, head coach Mike Vrabel has slayed it in his NFL career, going 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in his career, including 6-0-1 ATS when not a double-digit favorite. |
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12-11-22 | Eagles v. Giants +7 | 48-22 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There have been 26 games that played to an overtime tie in the NFL since 1980. The good news for Big Blue is that home teams not favored by 3 or more points are 9-2 SUATS when coming off a kiss-you-sister-contest, including 6-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a win. The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in the first of consecutive road games, 1-5 ATS in their last six division road games, and 2-8 ATS as road chalk of three or more points, and the G-Men 6-2 ATS when seeking revenge in this series, the points are the play in this fray. |
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12-11-22 | Browns +6 v. Bengals | 10-23 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Watson dresses up today sporting a 10-2-1 ATS NFL career mark as a dog of six or fewer points versus sub .700 opposition, as well as 9-3-1 ATS as a road dog against sub .700 foes. Meanwhile, the Bengals enter off last week’s hard-fought battle with the Chiefs at just 1-6 ATS as division home chalk of fewer than seven points, as well as 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in Game Thirteen of the season when taking on division foes. |
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12-10-22 | Navy v. Army +3 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ken “Nine Lives” Niumatalolo and the Midshipmen, who are staring down the barrel of their third straight losing campaign. Even so, a win against Army can cure a lot of ills, and Navy backers appear to be on board, moving the line from Army -1.5 to pick in just a few hours – not that strange considering the Mids have gone 16-4 SU in the last 20 meetings while being made the favorite 17 times. However, note that the team with the better win percentage in this series (Army this season), is 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS since 1980 in games in which Air Force has already claimed the CIC trophy. Then there’s the matter of the Black Knights’ 17-13 loss to Navy in 2021 as 7-point chalk. Revenge is the ultimate weapon in military battles, especially for those seeking it against foes sporting a losing record, as they’ve gone 15-5 SU and 13-7 ATS in this role in these military matters since 1995, including 5-0 ATS for those teams who score 34 or more points in their previous game. The series has also seen Army go 7-1 ATS with revenge when coming off a win, including 4-0 ATS the last four years. |
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12-08-22 | Raiders -6.5 v. Rams | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s now three consecutive wins for the Raiders, with RB Josh Jacobs off another monster game (26 carries, 144 yards, TD), and WR Davante Adams playing up to expectations (eight catches 177 yards, two TDs). The bottom line to this contest is there could be a Baker Mayfield sighting for the Rams tonight (signed but learning a new system), and Los Angeles falls to 2-13 ATS in games when coming off a loss as a dog against a foe coming off a win as a favorite. Back the better team as it keeps their playoff hopes alive. |
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12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs -170 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Saints have decided to stick with Andy Dalton, it appears, but the veteran signal-caller has not rewarded their faith. He has struggled with turnovers and has certainly suffered from a lack of a consistent running game. Both teams are laboring but the Bucs have more weapons and certainly more incentive and hope of winning this game. I like this line for the Bucs at slightly over a field goal after starting out at almost a touchdown. |
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12-04-22 | Chiefs -130 v. Bengals | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -130 | 49 h 21 m | Show |
AFC Blowout of the Month Rating: 5 Units Patrick Mahomes is on a path towards an MVP season. Thru 11 games this season he’s completed 66.1% of his passes for 3,585 yards, 29 TDs and 8 INTs. Mahomes is also 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in starts during November and December when not favored by more than 3 points. And he’s 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in all games in which the Chiefs are seeking revenge. The revenge we’re referring to: last season’s AFC championship game loss which denied Kansas City a Super Bowl appearance, instead sending the Bengals to the big game. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is 3-10 SU and 3-8-2 ATS as a home dog against greater than .400 opponents, including 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or fewer points. With the Bengals 3-7 ATS as non-division home dogs of fewer than 6 points. To cap it all off consider that Kansas City is 40-7 SU in Patrick Mahomes’ NFL starts from November out. He is also 26-0 in his last 26 starts in November and December. |
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12-04-22 | Chargers v. Raiders +105 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 105 | 49 h 16 m | Show |
AFC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Bolts had failed to score a touchdown in their previous 20 fourth-quarter possessions before finding the end zone twice (TD and 2-point conversion) in the game’s final 15 seconds. Now they head to Sin City sporting a 1-5 ATS record as division road chalk, as well as a 2-8 ATS ledger when coming off a spread loss and facing a foe off a spread win. The Black Patches return home with a lofty 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS mark in division games when coming off consecutive SU underdog wins. They are also 13-6 ATS the last nineteen games in this series when taking points, including 6-1 ATS at home. With the Chargers hobbled by the worst Yards Per Rush defense (5.4) in the league, and the Raiders offense gaining 5.2 Yards Finally consider that the Raiders are 11-4 ATS at home in the last fifteen division home games, including 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS when hosting a foe not off a win of 3 or more points. |
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12-04-22 | Seahawks -7 v. Rams | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Seattle QB Geno Smith leads all NFL quarterbacks in QBR Rating this season at 108.5. In fact, Smith is 14-5 ATS in his last nineteen NFL starts, including 5-0 SUATS when coming off consecutive losses. With the shell-of-themselves Rams 0-6 SUATS in this series, as well as 1-8 SUATS as a home dog, and with the Seahawks arriving off back-to-back losses consider that Seattle head coach Peter Carroll is 11-1 SUATS in Game 12 of the season with the Seahawks, including 10-0 SUATS when Seattle is not a double-digit favorite. |
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12-04-22 | Titans +4.5 v. Eagles | 10-35 | Loss | -108 | 46 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Eagles win over the Packers on Sunday night was impressive, to say the least. Not only did they manage to amass 363 rushing yards in the contest, (the eighth most in the Super Bowl era) but the Eagles rushed for 153 yards on 18 carries in the first quarter alone. Then in the fourth quarter, they rushed for 92 yards on another 18 carries. Whew. However, we don’t know if another onslaught of the same magnitude is possible this week against the Titans’ 3rd ranked rush defense, one that is allowing 85 RYPG. In addition, Tennessee is 4-0 ATS in matchups when both teams are coming off non-division battles, and 11-2 ATS as a dog of 5-plus points. The Eagles seal the deal entering with a 1-8 ATS ledger when coming off an ATS win versus a foe coming off an ATS loss. |
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12-04-22 | Broncos v. Ravens -9 | 9-10 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Near double digit chalk role is always a bit scary, but until the Broncos can manufacture any sort of reliable offense, they will continue as a solid "go-against", especially with "over/under" proponents, as the "under" has reaped gold: 10-of-11. If the Broncos had scored 18 pts in each of their games, they would stand at 9-2, & not 3-8. Ravens' 2nd-ranked rushing game should provide be enough "O" to cover the spot. Tied with Cincy atop AFC North, to they cannot afford any slippage. |
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12-03-22 | Purdue +17 v. Michigan | 22-43 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units We’re sure those who watched the Wolverines in the second half last week have already plunked their money down on the maize-and-blue, but we think the Boilers deserve more than just a passing glance. Purdue is 3-0 in its last 3 Neutral Site games, 7-1 ATS as conference dogs of 8 or more points, 6-1 ATS off a double-digit Big Ten road win, and 4-1 ATS versus undefeated conference opponents. Word out of Michigan is that RB Corum is not expected to play, as Harbaugh plans to save him for the playoffs. But even without him, the Wolverines rushed for 254 yards against Ohio State, a stat that does not bode well for the Boilers considering they are just 2-5 ATS this season in games where they’ve lost the overland battle. However, before going with Michigan know that head coach Jeff Brohm brings a 28-14 ATS career dog log into this contest, including 7-1 ATS versus foes coming off an ATS win of 20+ points. And while a Buckeye letdown did not occur in this game last year when Michigan destroyed Iowa, we’d be shocked if it doesn’t rear its head here today. In what marks the first meeting for these two programs since 2017, we look for the Wolverines to fall to 3-10 ATS when playing off a SU road dog win. |
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12-03-22 | LSU +17.5 v. Georgia | 30-50 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tigers were clearly looking ahead to tonight’s title game against the Bulldogs when they were undressed by Texas A&M, 38-23. That defeat ended a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS run for 1st-year head coach Brian Kelly and his Bengals, and the early money has poured in on defending national champ Georgia. It’s important to remember, though, that Kelly is 18-7 ATS as a dog when coming off a loss in his CFB career, including 11-3 ATS versus .700 or greater opponents. Solid history for LSU in this series of late with a 4-0-1 ATS skein in progress, plus the bayou boys have cashed 7 straight tickets in Neutral Site games. Kelly’s heroes are also 8-3 ATS as dogs of 7 or more points while Georgia is just 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS when seeking revenge in this series (Tigers took down Dawgs, 37-10, in 2019 SEC title bout). |
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12-03-22 | Fresno State +3 v. Boise State | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units So, even though Boise clobbered Fresno this year, 40-20, we know that the wild horses are a whimpering 1-7 ATS after scoring 40 or more points, plus 1-4 ATS in Mountain West Conference title games. We also know that Fresno stands 4-0 ATS in MWC championship contests, with three of those tickets coming against the Broncos. And since BSU has won two straight against the west coasters, its poor 2-5 ATS record at home versus a foe seeking double revenge comes into play here against the Bulldogs’ outstanding 7-1-1 ATS record when playing with double revenge. To cap it off, Fresno's HC has a penchant for getting his teams up in double revenge situations, going 10-5 SU and 9-5-1 ATS in his career, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS with his current school. |
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12-03-22 | Kansas State +2 v. TCU | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Despite losing starting QB Adrian Martinez on the first series of the game, the Wildcats bounced back to take a 28-10 lead at the half under backup QB Will Howard. Unfortunately for KSU, Howard and a half dozen other major K-State contributors were felled by injury in the second stanza, and the Horned Frogs took advantage by scoring the final 28 points of the game. Howard looks ready to go here, and his team has gone 4-1 ATS of late in this series, 4-0 ATS the last four Neutral Site games, and 5-2 ATS with single conference revenge. That goes hand in hand with TCU’s 0-4 ATS failure in Neutral Site games, and its 3-6 ATS mark as Big 12 road chalk of 6 or fewer points. How much longer can the Froggies keep their unbeaten streak going while the pressure increases exponentially with every passing week? |
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12-02-22 | Utah v. USC -135 | 47-24 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Pac12 hardly lacks for excitement, with barnburners the rule, rather than the exception, including this year's regular season meeting. The Trojans have moved to the #4 spot in the nation, with a win here cementing a slot in the national playoffs. Just a single loss, & that by a mere pt, trailing only Tennessee & Ohio St in scoring, as transfer QB Williams is now 34-3. And, as has been the case all season, Troy has the Top Turnover ratio in the land, now at +23. Four times the charm for USC here. |
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12-02-22 | North Texas +8.5 v. UTSA | 27-48 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chaparral Birds enter on a 9-game win streak following a 1-2 start, but have cashed a ticket in just four of those games. The fact that UTSA has been double-digit chalk in six of its last seven contests makes the opening line of -8.5 look mighty appealing against a North Texas team that lost on this field six weeks ago, 31-21. However, sub .600 teams in conference championship games seeking same-season revenge are 6-0 ATS since 2000. The Eagles also own a profitable 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS mark against foes who surrender 22 or more PPG this season. While the game host’s 7-2 and 6-3 ATS success in C-USA title bouts points to the Roadrunners, consider that same-season revengers taking on opponents coming off a win who scored 34-plus points in their last contest, are 10-2 ATS since 2010. That, and UNT’s 22-point demolition of UTSA last year – Traylor’s worst loss with the Roadrunners – is enough to put us on the dudes from Denton tonight. |
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11-27-22 | Packers +6.5 v. Eagles | Top | 33-40 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Prime Time Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units The ‘return to the norm’ is simply too strong to overcome as ATS losses begin to pile up with each passing week. With it the Eagles enter this week on a 3-game ATS losing skid while having been out yarded in half of their last six games. Granted, the Packers are facing demons of their own, but Aaron Rodgers thrives in these situations, and we expect nothing less today. With it the Pack checks in 7-1 ATS in game versus .750 or greater foes the past two seasons, as well as 8-2 ATS when coming off a Thursday contest. Meanwhile, the Green Birds enter 1-8 ATS versus foes off a SU home favorite loss, and just 3-8 ATS against foes coming off a Thursday game. To cap it off, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is 10-1 SUATS as a dog when the Packers are coming off a SU favorite loss, including 7-0 ATS versus .700 or greater foes. |
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11-27-22 | Raiders v. Seahawks -3.5 | 40-34 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If Carroll can guide this team to 10 or more wins and make the postseason sans Wilson and Wagner, he’s almost certain to win Coach of the Year.” Fast forward from June to November and 6-4 Seattle is more than halfway to the 10-win season few thought they could achieve. While the Seahawks have been a major surprise, the 3-7 Raiders have dutifully taken their place as one of the worst teams in the NFL, disappointing eyepatch fans everywhere as they stumble to their fourth losing season in the last five years. Things won’t get any easier after today, either, with Vegas lining up against New England, San Francisco, and Kansas City down the stretch. When it comes to today’s contest, Las Vegas has run out of luck in its last fi ve meetings with NFC West teams, going 1-4 ATS. Not so for Seattle, who boasts a 7-1 ATS record off a SUATS loss versus foes off a SUATS win. It’s not a stretch to suggest that these two are headed in opposite directions, and we won’t be on the one heading south. |
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11-27-22 | Chargers -138 v. Cardinals | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Stamina. It’s something that enables some athletes to keep going when others fall by the wayside. And it’s clearly something that Kliff Kingsbury has not enjoyed in his head coaching career. Kingsbury’s first seven games of the season with Texas Tech: .643, with Arizona .661... rest of the season with Texas Tech .242, with Arizona .323. And that summarizes the state of the Cardinals this season. Obviously, someone has got to go, and it’s either going to be Kingsbury or the eternal malcontent QB Kyler Murray, engineer of the biggest heist this side of Russell Wilson’s robbery of the Denver Broncos. The NFL has been in hot pursuit of Murray as a face of the sport, hoping to prove that someone who can’t see over his offensive linemen can be a star. But the former Oklahoma QB can’t seem to make it to the end of a season without injury or subpar play, and after missing two weeks with a hamstring problem, his return will be too little too late for the 4-7 Cardinals. |
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11-27-22 | Falcons v. Commanders -3.5 | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 3 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Commanders are 6-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins as well as 4-1 ATS versus NFC South opponents. Meanwhile, the Dirty Birds enter 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS at home when coming off a win, and are 0-7 ATS in Game Twelve of the campaign. They are also riding a 10-game ITS (In The Stats) losing streak, currently the longest in the NFL. |
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11-27-22 | Bengals v. Titans +110 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units The ground game has really come to the Bengals aid of late as Nate Davis of the USA TODAY notes that the Bengals one-two running back punch of Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine, former teammates at Oklahoma, have eight TDs the past two games. But the hottest team in the league – read: Tennessee – also know they are 6-0 ATS off an away game versus a foe also off an away game. They are also 5-0 ATS off a Thursday game. Finally, Tennessee is 12-0 ATS off an ATS win versus a foe off an ATS win. |
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11-26-22 | Notre Dame v. USC -180 | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The host in this series has covered seven of the last eight meetings. The loss of USC running back Travis Dye in the Colorado game was every bit as sad and unfortunate as the injury Hendon Hooker suffered in Tennessee’s game on Saturday, but senior Austin Jones stepped in ably against UCLA, rushing for 120 yards and 2 TDs. In addition, All-American WR Jordan Addison returned from his own knee injury with a bang, catching 11 balls for 178 yards. The 13th-ranked Irish looked unstoppable while shutting out Boston College last week, and smoked Clemson two weeks earlier, but remember, they have losses this season to both Marshall and Stanford. |
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11-26-22 | Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern +6.5 | Top | 48-51 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Upset of the Week Rating: 4 Units App State is 2-7 ATS in lined games, 1-7 ATS as a favorite (!) and 0-4 ATS when coming off a victory. Georgia Southern is the opposite going 4-0 ATS in regular season finales and a sturdy 5-1 ATS in last home games. Finally, Eagles Coach Helton has never lost four straight (even though Southern Cal die-hards thought he lost every game there) and is 6-2 SUATS when coming off consecutive losses. |
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11-26-22 | Iowa State +10 v. TCU | Top | 14-62 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Big-12 Game of the Mont Rating: 5 Units Iowa State has out-yarded each of their last five opponents, including a 422-246 margin over Texas Tech in last week’s 14-10 loss. They have also held eight opponents to a season-low – or 2nd low – yardage this year, and that is just enough to apply the slip-knot on the TCU noose. When you consider that the Clones are 5-1 ATS in this series over the last six matchups (3-0 ATS as a dog), and that they own a 6-0 ATS mark as conference road dogs, you’ll find your winner. Finally, playing on any CFB dog off two losses, both as a favorite, if they allow 21 or fewer PPG and they are facing an undefeated opponent is 13-2-1 since 1980. |
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11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State +2.5 | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Oregon is only 8-15 ATS in this series when the Beavers are playing with revenge, including 1-5 ATS as a single-digit favorite. Oregon State has been formidable of late as a home dog of 7 or fewer points, going 6-1 ATS the last seven. Even more amazing is the fact that OSU has gone 9-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in its last ten home games, plus the Beavers have held their last three foes to season-low yards. Finally, head coach Jonathan Smith is 19-11 ATS in games where the Beavers are seeking revenge, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games. |
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11-26-22 | New Mexico State v. Liberty -24 | 49-14 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Freeze loves to catch fish in a barrel with hand grenades: 18-2 SU and 14-3 ATS versus sub .333 opponents by an average of 46-13. This includes a perfect 7-0 SUATS in lined games. This batch of ricin-infused tea also features an evil 18-6-1 ATS mark against teams coming off a SUATS loss, which is a specialty of all college football teams coming out of New Mexico. NMSU is 0-10 ATS off a dog loss while playing a foe off a SU favorite loss and 1-11 ATS in the last 12 Game 11’s. |
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11-25-22 | Arkansas v. Missouri +4 | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman’s goal is to avoid the pangs of a letdown versus Mizzou, but the fact is the Hogs bring a 4-11 SU and 2-13 ATS record into this contest when coming off a SU upset win, including 0-7 ATS versus foes coming off a win. Sitting at 5-6 in their final regular season game, the Tigers are a ‘Shaky 16’ team this week as it’s win or you’re not in time for Missouri. The good news for MU head coach Eli Drinkwitz, who just signed a contract extension several weeks ago, is the host in this series is 7-1 ATS. Drinkwitz also stands 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS versus a foe coming off a SU underdog win, as well as 3-0 SUATS versus sub .560 foe coming off a SU underdog win. Finally consider that Missouri is 9-3 ATS in Last Home Games versus foes coming off a win, including 8-0 ATS versus foes off a win of fewer than 20 points. |
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11-25-22 | NC State v. North Carolina -6 | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Simply expect the unexpected when Tars perform. Led GaTech 17-0 in 2nd, but no pts thereafter for UNC's 4th-ranked "O" vs GT's 95th-ranked "D". 'Pack on 1-7 ATS slide, & winless ATS away. In addition, 'Pack is 2-9 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games, and 2-9 ATS as conference dogs of 8 or fewer points. Can't run, & Finley not the answer. Maye & Co bounce back. |
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11-25-22 | Baylor +10 v. Texas | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units BU is a perfect 8-0 ATS when coming off a loss and its opponent is coming off a win. The Bears are also 7-1 ATS when coming off a home loss, plus they outgained TCU, 501-442, in last week’s last-second loss to the charmed Frogs. For more anti-Longhorn ammunition, defending Big 12 champs like Baylor are 10-5 ATS when coming off two losses. Yes, the Texas offense has looked downright scary lately, scoring 34.3 PPG in its last six outings, but the Longhorns are 4-8 SUATS in LHGs, including 0-4 SUATS when coming off a double-digit win. |
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11-24-22 | Patriots +2.5 v. Vikings | 26-33 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota was a team that I had overrated heading into its abysmal showing against Dallas, although that turned out worse than anyone could have imagined. The Vikings’ stats do not match their record, as they have actually been outscored overall this season. Plenty of bettors are going to look at the records of these teams and back Minnesota, but I like New England here. The Patriots have quietly been playing very solid football, covering the spread in six of its last seven games. They have the much better defense and have won five straight meetings between these teams. |
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11-24-22 | Mississippi State +2.5 v. Ole Miss | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the visiting Bulldogs haven’t done much better down the stretch, a litany of strong trends support Mississippi State in this battle for the 3rd spot in the SEC West between these intrastate rivals. While Ole Miss owns the better record overall at 8-3 / 4-3 compared to the 7-4 / 3-4 Bulldogs, the Rebels are just 1-6 ATS as conference favorites of fewer than 7 points, and 1-5 ATS in LHGs. Across the field, MSU head coach Mike Leach is backed by an 8-0 ATS mark when playing with double conference revenge, a 10-1 ATS record after an unlined home game, and a 6-1 ATS skein as a series visitor versus Ole Miss. MSU looks to improve to 5-1 ATS as an SEC dog of 8 or fewer points. |
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11-24-22 | Giants +10.5 v. Cowboys | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Dallas is 31-22-1 all-time on Thanksgiving Day, but only 4-7 SU and 1-10 ATS the last eleven years – including 0-3 SUATS the last three. Meanwhile, the Cowboys return home as an annual Turkey Day host, on the heels of last week’s 37-point win at Minnesota. It was the largest road win in Dallas’ history – and you know how we love fading teams coming off record setting performances. The Boys have now won 11 of their last 12 division games. However, the Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games when coming off a SU favorite loss. To clinch it, consider that winning NFL division road dogs with triple revenge from losses in their last three meetings are 12-1 ATS when facing a foe coming off a win of 7 or more points. |
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11-21-22 | 49ers v. Cardinals +10.5 | 38-10 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Arizona’s Kliff Kingsbury is the only coach in NFL history with a better outright record as a dog than as a favorite with the Cardinals, going 17-16-1 SU taking points and 11-14 outright laying them. McCoy is 3-0 ATS as a dog as a starting quarterback for Arizona – winning all three games outright. Murray is 3-1-1 ATS in his starts in this series, including 2-0-1 ATS as a dog. On the Niners side, Frisco is 8-1 ATS on Mondays in division games, but only 1-7- 1 ATS as of late in this series. |
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11-20-22 | Chiefs -5 v. Chargers | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Chiefs enter this fray knowing they are 14-3 SU in the last 17 games in this series. Meanwhile, KC is 10-3 ATS as division road chalk of 10 or fewer points, while LA is 3-9 ATS the last dozen games as a home dog. We’d love to hop on the arm of Justin Herbert as he looks to avenge a 27-24 loss at Arrowhead in Game Two this season, but the fact of the matter is both Herbert and the Chargers are struggling, and the Bolts are only 4-38 ATS as home dogs in games they lose outright. |
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11-20-22 | Bengals -3.5 v. Steelers | Top | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
Divisional Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units The Bengals are 8-0 ATS when coming off a non-division game when facing a foe that is also coming off a non-division game, as well as 7-0 ATS off a win versus foes coming off a win. And then there is Burrow, who brings a 9-1 SUATS career record into this game when facing an NFL opponent coming off a SUATS win. Meanwhile, the Black-and-Gold are at home following last week’s home win with a 0-4 SUATS ledger at home when coming a home game. Mike Tomlin’s troops are also 1-8 ITS (In The Stats) this season while being outgained an average -85 YPG. Finally the Bengals are 25-1 ATS in their last twenty-six division games they win outright |
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11-20-22 | Cowboys v. Vikings +2 | Top | 40-3 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Mike McCarthy, not the sharpest knife in the NFL coaches’ drawer, decided to go for it on fourth-and-3 from Green Bay’s 35-yard line in overtime rather than kicking a field goal to go up by 3 points. The Cowboys failed to convert and the Packers then proceeded to kick the game-winning field goal. Another knock at the door is Dallas’ 3-10 ATS log in this series, including 1-10 ATS without rest. To clinch it all, Dallas is 3-18-1 ATS as a conference favorite versus .666 or greater opponents, including 3-11 SU and 0-13-1 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 4 points. |
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11-20-22 | Browns v. Bills -7.5 | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bills are 31-11 SU and 32-10 ATS when coming off three consecutive ATS losses, and they are also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS as a home favorite of more than 8 points when coming off a home loss. In addition, NFL non-division home favorites who scored 30-plus points and lost as a favorite are 14-5 ATS the following game since 1980. For what it’s worth, despite hitting a recent two-game speed bump, Buffalo is winning the total yards on an average of +104 yards per contest this season. It’s closest pursuer, San Francisco, is 25 YPG lighter than the Bills. With QB Josh Allen’s MVP chances having taken a major hit, look for a bounce back. |
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