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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-23-17 | Michigan v. Purdue +10 | 28-10 | Loss | -105 | 69 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The improved Boilers now +96 points ATS in early going, with a 468-230 rushing yard edge in the past 2 weeks (43:43-16:17 time edge last week). QB Blough: 22-of-28 vs Missouri. Michigan led Air Force just 16-13 in 3rd, before 29-13 final, 'though managing only 1 offensive TD (same vs Cincinnati 2 weeks ago). An upset. |
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09-23-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma State -13.5 | Top | 44-31 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 43 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week Oklahoma State's Rudolph is now at 378 passing yards per game with 11 touchdowns and only 1 interception (5 touchdowns last week). Try an average of 41.8 points per game in Oklahoma States L24 regular season games. TCU counter with balanced attack, behind QB Hill (8 touchdowns with 2 interceptions), & 245.7 passing yards per game. Tcu covered its last road game by 18 points, but is on a 4-9 spread slide. |
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09-23-17 | Miami-OH +2 v. Central Michigan | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 68 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Killer loss for 'Hawks (a pick-6 by Cincinnati in the last 1:07). Miami-Ohio 7-3 SU lately, with losses by 2, 3, 4 points. Central Michigan allowed 31 unanswered points to wind up at Syracuse, & are 0-5 ATS at home. |
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09-22-17 | Utah -3.5 v. Arizona | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nice Arizona comeback off killer loss to Houston, with 63-16 rout of Utep. Arizona has allowed only 3 TDs the past 2 weeks, but its defense now at 39.3 points per game in their L10 lined games. Utes turned 37-16 lead over San Jose State, with 11:21 left, into 54-16 romper, & don't forget that Utah plays its best on road |
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09-21-17 | Rams -2.5 v. 49ers | 41-39 | Loss | -114 | 26 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I know that the Niners took the measure of the Rams here, the last 2 years, including that 28-0 blowout last year (30½ point cover). However, San Francisco burning up the scoreboard to the tune of 6 points per game so far, although finally got some rushing (Hyde: 124 yards, 8.3 yards per rush) in last week's loss to Seattle. Rams obviously improved, & are 6-1 ATS as favorites vs opponents off consecutive losses. Niners 2-13 ATS if less than .500, & taking on division opponent that is in off a SU home loss. And San Franvisco is a near-perfect 1-6 ATS on Thursdays. |
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09-18-17 | Lions +3 v. Giants | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Lion QB Stafford tossed up a pick-6 in the first 3:36, of battle with the Cards. But that was about it as he finished with 4 touchdown passes, no more picks, & 71% (29-of-41). Trailed Arizona 10-0, but led 35-17 in 35-23 final. Giants were mauled by the Cowboys. Just 3 points, with Eli at no touchdowns with 1 interception. Detroit is 8-1 as an avenging road dog of less than 6 points. In addition, 11 of NY's last 12 home games have been decided by 6 points or less SU. So only one way to go. Take the points. |
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09-17-17 | Packers +3 v. Falcons | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Double revenge affair for the Packers as it went down twice to the Falcons last year, a 33-32 regular season setback, as well as a 44-21 shellacking in the NFC title game. Atlanta has had to live with that giveaway loss in the Super Bowl, so may come out smoking, although 125-64 rushing yard deficit at Chicago isn't exactly frightening, as Falcons ranked 5th in rushing production last year. Green Bay opened with 17-9 point, 26-12 first down, & 370-225 total yard edges over Seattle. Aaron over Matt in what could very well be a classic. |
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09-17-17 | Cardinals -6.5 v. Colts | 16-13 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bruce Arians returns to Indianapolis, where he filled in for Chuck Pagano for 12 games in 2012. Is there a worse team than these Colts without Luck? Well, they did manage to post 9 points (3 field goals), and 10 first downs vs the Rams, in last week's 46-9 slaughter, as Tolzien & Brissett threw for a combined 150 yards. But Indianapolis is home. Forget it. Indianapolis stands at -33 pts ATS in their last 5 home games. Four turn overs did the Cards in in loss to Lions. But not here |
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09-17-17 | Eagles +6 v. Chiefs | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chiefs, & new-found explosiveness, really put it to the champion Patriots in that NFL Thursday Night opener, with a 21-0 4th-quarter edge, as QB Smith never looked better (80%, 368 yards, & 4 touchdowns with 0 interceptions), including huge backbreaking plays. A definite entrant in the brass ring chase. But don't dismiss the Eagles, based on last year's quick start, poor finish season. QB Wentz has a year's experience, which is invaluable. The visitor in Kansas City games is on an incredible 46-14 spread run, with extra tight games being the rule. We take the points. |
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09-17-17 | Browns v. Ravens -7.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A year ago, the host Ravens took the Browns, to the tune of 28-7. Their defense was superb in white-washing Cincinnati, holding the Bengals just 77 rushing yards, & forcing 5 turn overs. Two Baltimore touchdowns over a 24-second span of the 2nd pretty much put that one away. Despite that one, note that the home team is 9-3 ATS in Raven games, while they're +46 points ATS in their last 5 home games. The Browns allowed 29, 30, 31, 28, 31, 28, 33, & 27 points in their road games last year. And they're scoring 13.8 points per game in L9 games |
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09-17-17 | Titans v. Jaguars +3 | 37-16 | Loss | -135 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quite a start for both HC Marrone, & RB Fournette. Jacksonville has had the Titans' number, covering 9-of-12, & that includes 5 straight as the home team in this series. Last year it was 38-17. As noted above, the Jaguars took full advantage of that 4-0 turn over edge, for their 29-7 upset of Houston (27-point cover), with 155-93 rushing yard edge. Just 16 points for the Titans last week, but they are still averaging 25.3 points per game in their last 14 games. Tennessee is just 2-13 ATS with a less then .500 record with revenge, & off a non-division contest. Jags keep it up. |
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09-16-17 | LSU -7 v. Mississippi State | 7-37 | Loss | -105 | 101 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mississippi State Bulldogs served notice as to their authenticity, with rout of always dangerous Louisiana Tech. But just 3-6-1 ATS, but those covers have come by 19, 44, & 26½ points. But the LSU Bengals are another matter, with a smothering defense, with balanced offense behind RB Guice, QB Etling (22-of-31 this year). |
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09-16-17 | Colorado State v. Alabama -28.5 | 23-41 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tide's easy win over Fresno was by the book. Alabama has now held 25-of-32 opponents to 16 points or less. Sure, the Rams have had little trouble lighting up the scoreboard (35 points per game last year), with QB Stevens topping 300 passing yards the last 5 games. But this is a horse of a different color. Not even close! |
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09-16-17 | Tennessee +5.5 v. Florida | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No semblance of former classic stature lately. Sure, the Gators have held 16-of-26 opponents under 15 points, but note Florida topping 20 points in just 3 of last 10 games. Volunteers defense looked lost at Georgia Tech (535-148 rushing yard deficit), & miss many of last year's "skill" players. This one is going to the wire, so take the points. |
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09-16-17 | North Texas v. Iowa -21 | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -120 | 98 h 10 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Mismatch of the Week The Hawkeyes don't let this type get away. QB Stanley has 8 touchdowns in his 1st 2 starts, tying Iowa State in the final 1:09, winning it in OT. North Texas has a 288-164 point deficit in their last 7 lined games. They trailed SMU 54-17 in the 4th. No brainer here! |
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09-16-17 | Baylor v. Duke -14 | Top | 20-34 | Push | 0 | 95 h 21 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week The Baylor Bears are fast approaching pre-RG3 status. A home loss to UTSA, with greater than a 100-yard deficit is simply unfathomable, on heels of allowing 48 points and 585 yards to Liberty. Duke comes in with a nicely balance 538-191 yard edge in 26-point cover vs Northwestern (41-10 in 4th). I just can't see any other outcome. |
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09-14-17 | Texans +6.5 v. Bengals | 13-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These 2 met in the playoffs in both '11 & '12. Talk about self destruction. They both enter this off minus 4 turnover margins on opening week. Bengal QB Dalton had it the worst, tying a career-high with 4 interceptions, along with a forced fumble. Cincinnati is on a 5-11-2 ATS run, as well as 6-11-1 SU. And check an 80-rushing yard deficit vs the Ravens. Texans: 4-0 TO deficit, to go along with a franchise record 10 sacks. Houston is 8-1 ATS in Sept off a SU/ATS loss, while Bengals are 0-5 ATS as favorites of less than 7 points off a double digit ATS loss. Texans all the way! |
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09-14-17 | New Mexico +17 v. Boise State | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 55 h 30 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day The Boise State Broncos must regroup off blowing a 31-10 lead in the 4th vs Washington State, losing in OT (had won 110 straight, with 21+ point lead in 2nd half). And QB Rypien is ailing.. The New Mexico Lobos turned a 30-5 deficit after 3 vs New Mexico State into 30-28 loss (missed 2-point try in final 1:11). The visitor is 16-3 ATS in Boise State games |
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09-11-17 | Saints +3.5 v. Vikings | 19-29 | Loss | -125 | 55 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Well, Adrian Peterson is back in Minneapolis, but this time as a Saint. His addition just enhances New Orleans running game, when added to the talents of RBs Ingram & Kamara. Nice, but the possibility of a bit of friction has to be considered. The Saints are a premier road team, with their current 8-1-1 ATS run as NFL travelers (only miss by just 3 points). And throw in the fact that the dog is on an 18-6-1 spread streak in Saint contests. Minnesota's running game is actually stronger than last year, as rookie RB Dalvin Cook is the real deal. Minnesota is on a 3-8 SU slide, so Saints are the play. |
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09-10-17 | Giants +4.5 v. Cowboys | 3-19 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the 5th time in 6 years, these 2 square off on Sunday Night Football to start the season. The Giants have had the best of it of late, covering 5 straight vs the Cowboys, with Dallas just 2-6 ATS when hosting New York. The last time we saw the Cowboys, Aaron broke their hearts in last year's Divisional game. The Cowboys QB Prescott returns (NFL's 3rd-ranked passer), but will he be as effective in his sophomore year? Giant defense returns intact, although Eli may not have Odell (ankle). To wire in this one so take the points. |
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09-10-17 | Cardinals v. Lions +2.5 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 25 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This may come as a surprise, but Detroit has made the playoffs 2 of the last 3 seasons. So time to give Caldwell, Stafford, & teammates their due credit. Coincidentally, the Cards failed to make the preseason last year, after back-to-back post-season runs in '14 & '15. Last year, the Lions had a run, in which they held 6 straight opponents under 20 points, while the Cards were the opposite, allowing 30.8 points per game over an 8-game span, covering just 2 of those 8. The return of RB Abdullah is a huge plus for the Lions (played just 2 games in '16), & note that Detroit is 4-1 ATS as the series host. Take the points. |
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09-10-17 | Raiders +3 v. Titans | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sorry, Atlanta, but no team enters this season with a larger chip on its shoulder, than do these Raiders, who lost MVP candidate, QB Derek Carr, to a broken leg in their final game. He sure can put points on the board, reaching 30+ points 8 times, & being held under 27 points in just 4 games. And how about the addition of Marshawn Lynch? Titans also on the upswing, coming from 2-14 & 3-13 campaigns, to last year's 9-7 log, with Mariota coming into his own. However, note Tennessee is 2-11 ATS hosting AFC West. |
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09-10-17 | Eagles v. Redskins +1 | 30-17 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wentz set a franchise record with 379 completions last season, a total which ranked as the most by a rookie in NFL history. The 24-year-old endured significant troubles in two games versus Washington last year as he was sacked nine times. Veteran running back Darren Sproles reeled in 52 receptions in 2016 to notch his eighth consecutive season with 40-plus catches, although he had just three for 17 yards in two meetings with the Redskins. Cousins also has versatile - and oft-injured - tight end Jordan Reed as well as speedy slot receiver Jamison Crowder (career-high 67 receptions) as aerial weapons. Second-year back Rob Kelley is expected to lead a young backfield that includes Chris Thompson and rookie Samaje Perine. While Washington boasted the league's third-ranked offense last year (403.4 yards per game), the defense was often quick to yield field position by surrendering 377.9 yards per contest. Linebacker Ryan Kerrigan registered a double-digit sack total for the second time in his career with 11 in 2016, with 3.5 coming against Philadelphia. |
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09-09-17 | Minnesota +2.5 v. Oregon State | 48-14 | Win | 100 | 99 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Resurgent Beavers couldn't stay with Colorado State, & outplayed by Portland (28-18 first down & 515-389 yard deficits) winning in final 1:08. Minnesota in off 17-7 struggle with Buffalo, & that's the norm for Gophers, as dog is now 23-7-2 ATS & guest is 10-1-2 when they take field. |
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09-09-17 | Stanford +6.5 v. USC | Top | 24-42 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Game of the Week Series is full with classic outcomes so why not another on tonight? Rested Cardinals got 180 rushing yards from Love in rout of Rice (led 55-0 in 4th). USC found itself in dogfight (they were tied 21-21 in 4th) before disposing of Western Michigan, 49-31. Jones had 159 rushing yards) and Darnold again. However, the visitor is a perfect 8-0 ATS in Stanford games. |
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09-09-17 | Auburn v. Clemson -4.5 | Top | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 96 h 49 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Inter-Conference Play of the Day Star RB Pettway should return for Eagles, who needed no help in last week's 41-7 undressing of Georgia Southern, with 351-70 rushing yards and 535-78 total yard edges. Bryant for Watson last week: 16-of-22, 236 passing yards & 77 rushing yards. A 56-3 win, & 34-5 first down edge. Champs obviously still loaded. |
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09-09-17 | Marshall v. NC State -24 | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -101 | 95 h 2 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week 'Herd killed us last week, with a pair of kick off returns for touchdowns and a pick-6 in 31-26 (2-point cover) win over Miami-O (25-15 first down, 429-267 yard deficits). 'Pack did everything but win at South Carolina (29-12 first downs, 504-246 yards, and 36:41-23:19 time edges), behind Finley's 415 passing yards. Give the points in a romp. |
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09-09-17 | Central Michigan v. Kansas -5.5 | 45-27 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Solid production for Jay QB Bender in 1st start: 364 passing yards, 3 touchdowns. KU just 3-24 SU, but on nice 4-0 ATS run lately, covering last home game by 27 points. Chips are just 10 points from an 0-10 ATS run. |
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09-09-17 | Old Dominion -3.5 v. UMass | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 92 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Just 15 first downs for Monarchs in anemic opener. But catch 'Men off pair of killer losses. UMass didn't run last year (124th) & in off 321-79 rushing yard deficit vs Charlotte. Favorite is 10-1-1 ATS in ODU games. |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs v. Patriots -9 | 42-27 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Line opened at New England minus 8, and is now between -8.5 and minus 9 depending on where you bet. Sure, the Chiefs, especially under Reid, have emerged as a premier squad, accumulating a combined record of 44-24, including 10-8 ATS as road underdogs. The latter record seems to undercut the fact that many an "expert" is of the feeling that KC is a highly profitable play in that setup. The Patriots just continue on. One lone SU win in the preseason, which means nothing. Try covering their last 8, while crushing opponents to a 16-3 ATS mark. Super Bowl winners golden in openers. |
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09-04-17 | Tennessee v. Georgia Tech +3 | Top | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 153 h 32 m | Show |
Rating: 4 UnitsNCAAF Game of the Week Vols give you your money's worth, topping 37 points 8 times last year, while allowing more than 30 points 7 times. Replacing QB Dobbs & RB Kamara not an easy task for HC Jones. Jackets always among top rushing teams (#9 in '16), while Vols came in at 103 in containing the run |
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09-02-17 | Florida State v. Alabama -7 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 105 h 49 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week Preseason's 1st & 3rd ranked teams. The 'Noles retain 10 starters from last years 21st ranked defense, so moving it against this unit quite a task for "normal" opponents. However, the 'Tide, despite losing 10 starters, simply reloads, with QB Hurts & RBs Scarbrough & Harris true elites. Florida State QB Francois first to test latest Saban stop unit |
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09-02-17 | Vanderbilt v. Middle Tennessee State +3.5 | 28-6 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Would you believe that the previously doormat Commodores have gone to 4 bowls in the last 6 years? That, despite the fact that they are at just 10.9 points per game in 26 of their last 32 lined games. Raiders are led, of course, by prolific QB Stockstill (3,233 yards & 33 TDs). Topped 40 points 7 times laslt year, although 'Dore defemse is solid, I'll take home standing dog. |
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09-02-17 | Miami-OH +2 v. Marshall | 26-31 | Loss | -105 | 103 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - 'Hawks in off unbelievable season in which they lost their first 6 games, & won their last 6, before 1-point bowl defeat (13-point cover). Return 17 starters, including QB Ragland. 'Herd defense came from 36th ranked defense to 106th last year, & lost last home game by 30 points ATS. |
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09-02-17 | Ball State +7.5 v. Illinois | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 96 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Five straight losing seasons for the Illini, (allowed more than 30 points in 8-of-11 lined games last year) so any improvement will be gradual. Return only 10 starters, with Crouch QB replacement for Lunt. Cards play their best on the road , with visitor on a 12-0-1 ATS run in Ball State games. |
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09-01-17 | Colorado State +5.5 v. Colorado | 3-17 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Buffaloes covered first 7 games last year, before final 9-4 ATS slate, marred by 41-10 & 38-8 losses in final 2 games (-56½ points ATS). Lose 8 starters from 19th ranked defense. Rams score (48 points per game L6 games last year), but gave up 43 points per game in their L4. Opened impressively last week, with 41-10 windup vs Oregon State, behind 334 Stevens passing yards. This could be a classic shootout. Take the points |
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08-26-17 | Rice +31 v. Stanford | 7-62 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rice has an experienced O-Line that should make for a potent running game. The offense will be rock solid, but the passing defense needs to improve. Rice allowed more YPG passing than all but six teams last year. Stanford comes in trying to replace the production of RB Christian McCaffrey, but the Cardinal could choose to air it out more this season. QB Keller Chryst is recovering from a torn ACL, but he is the most talented QB they've had since Andrew Luck. Lots of points to cover for the first game of the year. |
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08-26-17 | South Florida -21 v. San Jose State | 42-22 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units USF lost Willie Taggart, but the team replaced him with the successful Charlie Strong. Strong inherits an offense that is led by Heisman hopeful QB Quinton Flowers. The Bulls should put up a ton of points. San Jose States Projected starter QB Josh Love appeared in five games in 2016-17, completing 51.7% of his passes and throwing for only two TDs with five INTs. His play leaves a lot to be desired for an offense that features some dangerous weapons. Defensively, the Spartans are going to struggle. |
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08-26-17 | Hawaii v. UMass OVER 60 | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Over is 6-0 in Rainbow Warriors last 6 non-conference games, 5-1 in Rainbow Warriors last 6 vs. INDEP, 6-2 in Rainbow Warriors last 8 road games, and 10-4 in Rainbow Warriors last 14 games on field turf. While the Over is 5-1 in Minutemen last 6 games overall, 4-1 in Minutemen last 5 non-conference games, and 4-1 in Minutemen last 5 games on field turf. |
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08-26-17 | Oregon State v. Colorado State -3.5 | 27-58 | Win | 100 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on field turf, 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 non-conference games, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games. |
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02-05-17 | Patriots -3 v. Falcons | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 94 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units NewEngland has recorded multiple takeaways in 7 of its last 8 games. While the Patriots are perennial SuperBowl contenders, the Falcons certainly qualify as novices, with that single appearance in '98. So, a definite edge to the Pats. Brady & Belichick are genuine contenders, if not already crowned as the best QB & HC coach in NFL history. They continue to do it, with a multiple of talent offsetting losses due to attrition & injury (Gronkowski, for example), with what many consider "no-names". Everyone knows of their offensive prowess, but check that top-ranked scoring "D". Both "O" lines are among the best, with Coleman, Freeman, Blount, etc all quality ball toters. Top scoring "O"s vs top scoring "D"s normally goes to the defense (Pats) |
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01-22-17 | Steelers v. Patriots -6 | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 53 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Patriots have been at the pinnacle all year especially in their last 13 games, as they've averaged 30.3 points per game in that baker's dozen affairs. And, as I've been saying repeatedly, Tom has been the main cog in their current 12-1 run, since his reinstatement, with 30 TD passes & only 4 interceptions. However, he was at 28/2 entering their less than impressive win over the Texans; just 47% & 2 touchdowns with 2 interceptions. However, Lewis became the 1st player in the Super Bowl era with running, receiving, & kick returning TDs. Not the best offensive display, but check holding Houston to 3 points over the final 40:49. They've already taken the measure of the Steelers, 27-16, in week #7, but Ben didn't suit up for that one. No TDs for Pitt, in its narrow 18-16 escape at KC (playoff-record 6 FGs for Boswell), and Roethlisberger is just 2 touchdowns with 3 interceptions in Steeler wins over the Dolphins & Chiefs. However, their overland game has a 350-113 yard edge in the playoffs. But running on this underappreciated Patriot defense could be another matter. |
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01-22-17 | Packers v. Falcons -4 | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 73 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When it comes to blitzing the scoreboard, the Falcons are without a peer this season, having topped 17 points 13 times, while averaging 36.5 points per game in their last 8 home games. They showed their worth in rout of the physical Seahawks, holding them to 2 field goals over a 48:05 stretch, in turning a 7-0 deficit into a 36-13 lead. Ryan has always been there, but this year has been special. He was 38 touchdown with only 7 interceptions, with 4,944 passing yards, before a solid 70.3%, 338 yards, & 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions vs Seattle, which marked just his 2nd playoff success, as he was previously 1-4 in post-season play. The Falcons have made it to the Super Bowl just once ('98 loss to Denver), & this makes only their 4th conference title game. These 2 met earlier, with the Falcons taking it 33-32, on Ryan's 3rd TD pass in final 0:31 (80%, 3/0), although Rodgers was his match: 74%, 4/0. But, I'll take the home field. |
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01-15-17 | Steelers +2.5 v. Chiefs | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In a '93 Wild Card meeting between these 2, the Chiefs beat the Steelers 27-24 in OT here. The QBs that day were Joe Montana & Neil O'Donnell. How time flies. Pittsburgh had its way with KC in their 1st meeting, with 300 passing yards (81.5%), and 5 touchdowns with 0 interceptions from Ben, while Bell ran for 144 yards (8.0 yards per rush). Can Pitt duplicate that? Of course not, but check a 215-133 point edge in its last 8 games, & from a an 0-4 SU run, to an 8-0 windup. Note Bell's 162 rushing yards vs Miami (post-season franchise record). Chiefs enter on 10-2 SU run (2 & 2 point losses). Chiefs rank just 20th on offense, & 23rd on defense. |
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01-15-17 | Packers v. Cowboys OVER 52 | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There is little doubt that Dallas, well-rested after its bye week and its previous low-key effort in its finale at Philly, will do its share of scoring. Elliott should be quick on his feet after the time off and the Cowboys always have Romo in their back pocket in the event Prescott shows some rookie playoff difficulties. But even if Jordy Nelson’s rib injury is a concern, there is still plenty to be confident about the Packers’ scoring ability as long as G.B.’s OL can keep Rodgers upright and on the move. Green Bay has gone “over” its last five games, and nine of its last 11. Behind three first-team All-NFL O-linemen (LT Tyron Smith, C Travis Frederick, RG Zack Martin), Elliott should take lots of pressure off fellow rookie Prescott, allowing Dak a chance to do his thing with his fine cast of receivers, especially with the Packers thin in the secondary. Stopping Rodgers might prove to be a tougher task for Dallas. Look “over” for sure. |
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01-14-17 | Texans v. Patriots -15 | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Patriots have been the standard for the past sixteen years, ever since shocking the football world with their '01 Super Bowl win over the Rams, as 2-TD underdogs. Went it without Brady for 1st 4 games, but still managed a 3-1 log without him, including a 27-0 whipping of the Texans, behind 3rd-string QB Brissett, despite a 284-282 yard deficit. Since Tom's return, the Pats averaging 30 points per game, with Brady at unimaginable 28 touchdowns with only 2 interceptions. The home team is 11-4-2 ATS in Houston games, while the favorite is on a 33-15 ATS run. Texans took Oakland, thanks to 3-0 turn over edge, & no veteran Raider QB. Osweiler came up empty in first game. |
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01-14-17 | Seahawks +6.5 v. Falcons | 20-36 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In an unusual twist, all 4 Divisional Playoff contests feature squads which have already met this season, with this one seeing the Seahawks taking a 26-24 win in the final 1:57. Ryan tossed 3 of his 38 TD passes in that frustrating affair. He has been magnificent all year: 4,948 yards, 70%, & 38 touchdowns with 7 interceptions. The Falcons are averaging 36.6 points per game in their last 7 home gamess. Can he do it vs this Seattle defense, which didn't allow the Lions to run any plays in the Red Zone? Seahawks are at 29.2 points per game in 8 of their last 10 games, & in off season-high 177 rushing yards. Matt's playoff record is 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS, but did prevail vs Seattle, 30-28 in '12 Divisionals. Revenge, in an epic game. |
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01-09-17 | Clemson +6.5 v. Alabama | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating:2 Units A year ago, it was Clemson at 14-0, & Alabama at 13-1. In QB Watson, Clemson owns the best player in the nation. As I wrote a year ago, he is the quintessential movable QB. And he had the 'Tide on its heels for the entire game: 405 passing yards & 4 touchdowns with 1 interception, along with another 73 rushing yards. And how about a nice 550-473 yard edge over Alaama, which got the win thanks to TDs on: 50-yard run, 53-yard pass, 51-yard pass, & 95-yard kick off return. Throw in a successful onside kick. Tigers' total domination of Ohio State: 24-9 first down, 205-88 ruchinh yarx, & 265-127 passing yard edges, along with a 13 minute time edge, is reason enough to believe that Clemson simply rises to the occasion. Take the points. |
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01-08-17 | Giants +5.5 v. Packers | 13-38 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Here we go again. Giants' last 2 playoff trips to Green Bay resulted in upset wins & eventual Super Bowl upsets of the Patriots ('01 & '11). So NY is on a 9-1 ATS post season run, including 8-0 as an underdog. Six straight wins to wind up season for 'Pack, directly on heels of an 0-4 run. And Rodgers is a perfect 15 touchdowns with 0 interceptions during current 6-game run. Giants opened at 2-3, so a 9-2 SU & 7-3-1 ATS windup. This one will go to wire. |
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01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers -11.5 | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Yet another veteran post-season outfit vs a novice. For Pittsburgh, this makes it 11 times in the last 16 years, & for Miami, its first in 8 years, & 2nd in 15 seasons. Dolphins did it with a 9-2 SU windup (7-2-2 ATS). They were smoking, behind RB Ajayi & QB Tannehill. But the latter is out. So note Fish with >222 RYs 3 times in last 11 games, but |
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01-07-17 | Lions +8.5 v. Seahawks | 6-26 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We all know the story line behind this one, namely the fact that the Seahawks have won their last 9 home playoff games, while the Lions are on 0-10 SU road playoff run. Seattle is 8-4 SU, but 6-6 ATS in postseason play since '10, and is actually on an 0-4 ATS playoff run. The underdog is 9-3 ATS in Seattle games of late, while Lions have come from 6-1-1 ATS & 8-1 SU runs, to 0-4 ATS & 0-3 SU windup. Underdog call in this one. |
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01-07-17 | Raiders v. Texans -3.5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 2 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a shame. Raiders make playoffs for 1st time since '02's Super Bowl loss to Tampa, only to lose their engine (Carr: 3,937 PYs, 28/6). Couldn't begin to stay with Denver LW (6 pts, 11 FDs), & Cook (for McGloin) is green. Visitor in Oakland games was 8-0 ATS, but home was 6-0-2 ATS down stretch. Texans were bombed, 30-0 by KC, here, in LY's Wild Card round (5-1 TO deficit), & are also experiencing a fluid QB situation. Home team and favorire are 10-4-2 & 32-15 ATS in Houston games. Take Houston |
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01-01-17 | Saints +8.5 v. Falcons | 32-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let's see: 1, 3, 2, & 3 points. Those are the margins of 4 of the Saints' 8 losses this season. And another 5 & 6 point misses for good measure. So close, & yet so far. Clash of QB titans here, as Drew is at 35 touchdowns with 14 interceptions for 4,858 yards & 71%, while Matt is at 34 touchdowns with 7 interceptions for 4,613 yards & 69%. The undog is 17-6-1 ATS in New Orleans games, while the Saints are 7-1 ATS on the road, with their lone miss by just 3 points. The Falcons have topped 27 points eleven times this year, but Saints are 12-3 ATS off a pair of wins vs an opponent off 2+ victories. A call for classic barn burner |
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01-01-17 | Panthers v. Bucs -3.5 | 16-17 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bucs' 5-game run extinguished with tight losses at Dallas & New Orleans, a couple of venues near impossible to sweep. But still alive, & on a 6-1 ATS run (+63 points). Check allowing only 9 points per game in their last 3 home games, while Winston is now 27 touchdowns with 17 interceptions. Panthers folding tent to torturous campaign, & now not only on a 6-9 SU run, but 8-13-1 ATS. They've been stung for 35 & 40 points in 2 of their last 3 road games. Were never in last weeks loss to the Falcons, with more than 100 yard deficit. Going with teams that need it, vs opponents who don't is hardly foolproof, but sets up here |
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01-01-17 | Browns v. Steelers -5.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -103 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Browns have escaped the tag of being only 1-of-2 teams to post an 0-16 log, as their upset of the Chargers put an end to this year's 0-14 run, & 0-17 overall losing streak. Note over 100-yard deficit in that one, & also possibly losing RG3 to a concussion for this merciful windup. The Steelers had to overcome 20-10 fourth quarter deficit, taking the Ravens in the final 0:07 (2 Roethlisberger TD passes in final 7:16). Steelers are 12-1 ATS vs less than .500 division opponents off a SU home win. Note Browns allowing 29, 30, 31, 28, 31, 28, & 33 points away |
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01-01-17 | Jaguars v. Colts -4 | 20-24 | Push | 0 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jags snapped 9-game slide, with lopsided 38-17 win over smoking Titans, coming from 9 first downs to 25, as Bortles had his first pressureless outing of the year, with the departure of Bradley (27-of-39 for 325 yards). That broke the norm, which showed that the prior 6 Jaguar covers came by merely 1, 3, 2, 2½, ½, & 3½ points. The Colts are out of it, with setback at Oakland just their first road loss in 2 months. And they have a 50-24 point deficit in their last 2 home games. But Indy is 11-2 as division avenger, facing an opponent off a SU/ATS division win, & Pagano is 16-2 ATS off a SU loss. Jags pay price. |
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12-29-16 | South Florida -10 v. South Carolina | 46-39 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Unit Bowl Game of the Week The Bulls own one of the most prolific offenses in the land, with QB Flowers doing it overhead & overland: first 2,000 yard passer, & 1,000 yard rusher in school history (2,551 passing yards, 61.5%, & 1,425 rushing yards, 8.1 yards per rush, & 15 TDs, to be exact. And he is more than complemented by RB Mack's 1,137 yards (7.1 yards per rush), 15 TDs. A 10-2 SU log, ranking 5th, 7th, 10th in rushing, scoring, total offense. But just a 4-4-1 ATS windup. Why? Well, try a sieve defense which ranks 90th, 118th, 83rd, & 118th in run, pass, scoring & total defense. Have allowed 38.2 points per game in their last 5 games. Thus a very juicy opportunity for opposing attacks. But can South Carolina, & their highly inept offense take advantage. Well, even if they can, up to a point, this is still a romp. |
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12-28-16 | West Virginia +3 v. Miami (Fla) | 14-31 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mounties have been a bit of an enigma, despite their first 10-win season since entering the Big12. Their only setbacks this year came vs Oklahoma State & Oklahoma, with a combined 7 turnovers, too much to overcome. The Mounties' 12th-ranked offense depends heavily on Howard, who has thrown for 3,194 yards (61%, with 26 touchdown and 10 interceptions), with RB Crawford good for 97 yards per rush (just 4 TDs). So a productive offense, if one-dimensional offense, that is uncomplemented by a defense which ranks 99th vs the pass (Kaaya). Four wins by a field goal or less for West Virginia, while only VaTech had its way with the 'Canes. The dog in West Virginia contests is on a 25-11 ATS run, and more importantly on a 10-0 ATS run in 'Neers' last 10 bowls |
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12-27-16 | Wake Forest v. Temple -11.5 | Top | 34-26 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Bowl Play of the Day This year marks an historic first for Temple, which had managed just a single 10-win season in its first 85 years ('79), & hadn't matched it, before last year's 10-4 mark. So back-to-back double digit win campaigns for a school that had formerly achieved that milestone just once, previously. And as far as bowl appearances go, this is their 4th in the last 8 years, but just their 6th in their history ('79 Garden State, & '34 Sugar, with Pop Warner on the sidelines). They've run off an unprecedented ELEVEN straight covers, & enter this on a 7 game SU run, with a 157-33 point edge in their last 5 games (+73½ points ATS). QB Walker is the first Temple player to reach the 10,000 yd mark for his career, while RBs Thomas & Armstead have an exact same 918 yards (13,14 TDs). But it's the defense that rules, ranking 2nd, 8th, & 3rd in passing, scoring & total defense. Probably, Owls' most impressive game was their 528-352 yard edge in 46-30 win over potent South Florida, as Bulls average 515 yards per game. |
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12-26-16 | Lions +6 v. Cowboys | 21-42 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The last time that these 2 met was in the first round of the '14 playoffs, with the controversial no pass interference call, against Dallas, after the yellow flag was thrown. Cowboys won that one, 24-20. Nice bounceback effort in win over the Bucs, for Dallas, with Elliott a career-high 159 rushing yards, with Prescott a brilliant 32-of-36 for 279 yards. But Cowboys haven't covered since before Thanksgiving (81-71 point edge last 4 games). Lions had 5-game run snapped last week, but have held 8-of-9 opponents under 21 points, and Stafford is still a solid 22 touchdown with 8 interceptions. Take the points. |
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12-26-16 | Vanderbilt +5.5 v. NC State | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Coah Ludwig took the reins off of whip-armed soph QB Kyle Shurmur, who passed for more than 200 yards just once in the first eight games, but did it four times in a row to close the year, including a career-best 416 in the season-ending 45-34 upset over Tennessee. That also opened the field for slashing RB Ralph Webb (1172 yards rushing), who gained better than 6 yards per catch in rousing wins over Ole Miss and the Vols. All a relief for Mason’s sturdy “D” which allowed only 22.6 points per game (very good vs. an SEC schedule), ranked first nationally in the red zone, and features projected 1st-round NFL draftee ILB Zach Cunningham (team-high 119 tackles). Having won at Chapel Hill, forcing Clemson into OT, and losing late to Florida State, North Carolina State cannot be dismissed. Boise State transfer QB Ryan Finley provided stability after the graduation of Jacoby Brissett (now NFL Pats) and had three straight 300 yard passing games in November. Punishing RB Matthew Dayes (1119 yards rushing) provides balance. And the robust front seven, led by DEs Bradley Chubb & Dorian Roseboro (who combined for 16½ sacks), ranked fifth vs. the run. That would likely have been the difference vs. pre-November Vandy. But the Dore offense I saw down the stretch, with Shurmur confident in his downfield throws, can neutralize that potential Wolfpack edge. Wins over Georgia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss also suggest Vandy is very capable of doing the same vs. this .500 opponent. |
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12-25-16 | Broncos +3.5 v. Chiefs | 10-33 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units K.C. was the beneficiary of a dubious Gary Kubiak decision in the first meeting a month ago, as the Broncos attempted a 62-yard FG late in OT on a cold night in Denver. The resultant miss set up patient K.C. for its own winning 34-yard FG at the end. Now, the defending champion Broncos may be down (8-6, two straight losses), but they’re not yet out. And the Denver defense continues to give up points grudgingly (10, 13, 16 last three games). The low-variance Chiefs (2-8 vs. spread last 10 at home) have a knack of allowing opponents to hang around at Arrowhead. It’s hard to trust them laying the points vs. a stubborn, familiar, desperate opponent. In additoin, the visitor is 43-13 ATS in KC games. |
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12-25-16 | Ravens v. Steelers -5.5 | 27-31 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's about time for Roethlisberger to break out, after being held to a single TD pass (1 touchdown with 3 interceptions) over the last 2 weeks. Took the Bengals 24-20, despite 20-9 halftime deficit, thanks to club record 6 field goals from Boswell (45, 49, 49, 40, 49, 30 yards). But don't forget 329 rushing yards from Bell over the last 2 weeks. Despite that narrow margin, the Steelers hold a 127-70 point edge in their last 5 games. And in this one, they have the revenge hammer. The home team is 8-1 ATS in Raven games, and Baltimore hasn't covered on the road since Sept. |
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12-23-16 | Louisiana Tech -5 v. Navy | 48-45 | Loss | -112 | 119 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Navy appeared as a team going nowhere, despite a 3-0 start vs dregs, followed by one-sided loss at Air Force (172-63 rushing yard deficit, trailing 20-0 in 4th, with QB Worth 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions and minus 5 rushing yards). But it all turned around, with 46-40 upset of 6th-ranked Houston (23-point cover) sparking a 6-1 SU run, averaging 49.1 points, per game featuring back-to-back 66-31 & 75-31 wins over East Carolina and Smu (+64 points ATS), rising to #2 in rushing (342 yards per game). However, it all came apart, with the loss of brilliant optioneering QB Worth (foot), early in 34-10 loss to Temple, & totally anemic (8 first downs, 316-112 rushing yard deficit) effort in 1st loss to Army in 15 years. Take Louisian Tech. |
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12-22-16 | Colorado State -13.5 v. Idaho | 50-61 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rams of Colorado State have been pure "money", covering their last seven games, with their only SU setbacks over that stretch coming by just 5 & 3 points (Boise: 23-point cover; & Air Force: 3-point cover). And check their season-ending 63-31 road rout of San Diego State, as QB Stevens threw for 4 TDs in the first half, thereby building a 42-24 edge at intermission, while Matthews & Dawkins were at 7.4 & 6.9 yards per rush (104 & 103 yards). However, even more noteworthy is the smothering of the Aztecs' overland game, holding the combo of Pumphrey & Penny to a total of 67 rushing yards (2.9 & 3.8 yards per rush). If there is a repeat of that display, then the hopeful Vandals don't stand much of a chance. Both will be sky high for this. Idaho has the home edge, but I just won't buck the Rams again. |
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12-20-16 | Memphis v. Western Kentucky -5.5 | 31-51 | Win | 100 | 50 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Western Kentucky is now at 48.5 points per game in 15-of-16 games. Its only miss? Just 10 points vs mighty Alabama. The Tigers can also post impressive scoreboard lighters, topping the 41-point barrier 5 times, albeit vs the 113th, 117th, 109th, 83rd, & 27th, scoring defenses of Kansas, Bowling Green, Smu, Southern Florida, & Houston. That win over the 20th ranked Coogs saw Memphis squander 34-17 halftime edge, falling behind 44-41 with just 1:29 left, before winning it, 48-44, in final 0:19. QB Ferguson is a sweet 3,326 passing yards (28 touchdowns with 9 interceptions), with WR Miller accounting for 845 yards & 11 TDs over his last 6 games, scoring in all 6. A shootout seems a given. But I just cannot buck Western Kentucky. |
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12-19-16 | Central Michigan +13 v. Tulsa | 10-55 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chips are led by Sr QB Rush, who has thrown for 7,147 yards & 48 touchdowns the last 2 years (24 picks). Their signature win, came in that miracle 30-27 win over Oklahoma Stat, as 19-point dogs on week 2 (Hail Mary lateral at the gun). The Golden Hurricane of Tulsa are again among the most potent squads around, ranking 8th, 11th, & 6th in rushing, scoring, & total offense, which is just a carryover from recent squads, which scored 63, 45, 62, 52 points in 4 of their last 6 bowls, since '07, be it Graham, Blankenship, or Montgomery on the sideline. Last year, the 'Cane (+14) lost 55-52 to VirginaTech, in the Independence Bowl, despite 374 passing yards (3 touchdowns with 0 interceptions) from Evans. He is again under center, with 3,309 passing yards (27 touchdowns with 7 interceptions). Tulsa has reached the 40-point mark 9 times this season, & pretty much performed as expected, save for those OT escapes vs 14 & 22 point underdogs, Smu & Cincy. History should rule this encounter, with defense taking a holiday. It's a barnburner. Take the points |
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12-18-16 | Raiders v. Chargers +2.5 | 19-16 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chargers firmly in place in AFC West cellar, with their latest failure coming in 5 turnover loss to the stumbling Panthers. Another 3 picks & 5 sacks for Rivers (now 27 touchdowns with 17 interceptions, with 33 takedowns). So an 11-point spread loss at Carolina, but a split, statwise. The Raiders had their 6-game winning streak snapped at KC, managing but a single TD, after scoring 30+ points in 5 of their previous 6 outings. Note Carr at only 17-of-41 in that one, and grimacing from time to time (finger?). Series is underdog 14-1 ATS. |
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12-18-16 | 49ers v. Falcons -13 | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 22 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Battle of former NFC West rivals. 'Complacency" isn't in the Falcons' vocabulary, as the oncoming Bucs have given them no breathing room, with both at 8-5, atop the NFC South. Bounced back quickly, off that 29-28 killer loss to KC, with 42-0 lead over the Rams, in the 3rd. Matt (3 touchdowns with 0 interceptions) now at 30 touchdowns with 7 interceptions, with Falcons topping 27 points 9 times, already. Check 1-12 Niners with 582 rushing yards last 3 weeks (248 last week, with Hyde career-high 193). But San Francisco pays price for last years upset. |
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12-18-16 | Eagles v. Ravens -5.5 | 26-27 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - On this field 8 years ago, Andy Reid benched Donovan McNabb for the 1st time in his career. That team ended up making it to their 5th NFC title game. The Eagles have seen it all fade away, with current 5-8 log, after impressive 3-0 start. Lost to Redskins in final 1:53, then fumbled at the 'Skin 14. The home team is 10-3 ATS in Eagle games (0-6 SU & ATS away this year), & 7-0 ATS in Raven games. Sure, Baltimore is in Pat/Pitt sandwich, but can't falter. The Ravens are 15-2 ATS as Dec home favorites vs non-division opponents off a SU loss |
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12-18-16 | Lions +4 v. Giants | 6-17 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are getting it done, one way or the other, as the Lions are on an 8-1 SU run (6-2-1 ATS), while the Giants have won 7-of-8 (5-2-1 ATS). Detroit has trailed in the 4th of every game but one, including all 9 wins. Winning breeds winning. Tight games the rule for both squads, as 13-of-14 Lion games have been decided by 7 points, or less, SU. Ditto the Giants, as their last 11 home games have been decided by less than 7 points. Detroit is 4-0 ATS at NY, while Giants are 1-7 ATS before playing on Thursday Night |
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12-12-16 | Ravens v. Patriots -6.5 | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 55 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These 2 have met here 4 times in the playoffs since 2009, & there have been some classic moments, as each team has won twice. I've been monitoring the success of the Patriots since the return of Brady. Try 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS, averaging 29.8 points per game, and Tom his normal brilliance on display, now standing at 19 touchdowns with only 1 interception. Unreal. Ravens made an emphatic statement with last weeks 38-6 rout of a Miami team, which had won 6 straight. But Baltimore is just 4 points from a 3-8 ATS run, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in Raven road games. |
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12-11-16 | Cowboys -3.5 v. Giants | 7-10 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This one is all about "revenge" as the Giants administered the only loss on the Cowboy slate, with their 20-19 opening day win, as Eli was a solid 3 touchdowns with 1 interception, including the winning pass to Cruz in the final 6:13. Prescott & Elliott were decent, & the Cowboys held to 24-18 first downs & 36:43- 23:17 time edges. So, can Dallas even the score in this one? No reason not to think that they can't. The Giants' 6-game run ended at Pittsburgh, with Manning just 2 touchdowns with 2 interceptions, with 2 red zone interceptions. Eleven straight wins for the Cowboys with Prescott 19 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions and Elliott 1,285 rushing yards. |
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12-11-16 | Bengals -5 v. Browns | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's fifteen straight losses for the Browns, with just 1 SU win in their last 23 games, although they did have 21-13 first downs and nearly 100-yard edges in 27-13 loss to the Giants, before taking their bye week. The Bengals are in off their 1st win in 42 days, scoring in 6 straight possessions in 32-14 win over the Eagles. Dalton: 2 touchdowns with 0 interceptions (now 14 touchdowns with 6 interceptions). Cincy's last 2 road games have been decided by 0 & 1½ points ATS. Bengals are 8-1 ATS on division road off double digit SU win, vs an opponent off SU/ATS loss. Cleveland is 1-9 ATS in Dec vs a less than .500 division opponent. |
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12-11-16 | Chargers +1 v. Panthers | 16-28 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Battle of snake bitten teams here. The Panthers paid dearly for their ouster of Seattle in last years playoffs, with last weeks 40-7 massacre, which included a 263-yard deficit. Oh, that one featured allowing an unanswered 37 points to wind it all up. The Carolina defense was its only saving grace, before that onslaught. Rivers: an endzone interception, and a pick-6 in losing to the Bucs. The Chargers are 9-0 ATS in Dec vs a less than .500 opponent off a double digit ATS loss, & the Panthers are 0-5 ATS as a home team off a double digit SU loss. Carolina: just 6-12-2 ATS in their L20. |
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12-11-16 | Texans v. Colts -6.5 | 22-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Colts come into his one tied with the Titans and these Texans atop the AFC South, all sharing an awesome 6-6 log. The favorite is 31-13 ATS in Houston games, with the home team at 9-2-1 ATS. Three straight losses for Houston, which is 1-5-2 ATS vs Indianapolis. The Colts are 12-1 ATS as avengers vs an opponent off SU/ATS loss, & Pagano a profitable 14-2 ATS vs division opponents. |
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12-10-16 | Army v. Navy -4 | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The last time that the Cadets of Army prevailed on the field in this "Military Classic" was "Dec 1, 2001. That streak should have been snapped in '12, with Army owning a 370-167 rushing yard edge, only to fumble it away in the last minute, losing 17-14. Again last year, the Cadets (+22) held 16-10 first down and 345-312 total yard edges, only to be on the short end of a 3-0 turn over deficit. Navy lost the services of QB Worth early in loss to Temple, but have topped 41 points 7-of-last-9 games, while Cadets are -84 points ATS in last 6 outings. |
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12-04-16 | Panthers v. Seahawks -7.5 | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 26 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units SNF Easy Play Panthers swept Seahawks last year, winning 27-23 here, to go to 5-0, and held on for dear life in 31-24 Divisional win. Seahawks: 5 points in loss at Tampa. Wilson: 3 turn overs. But Seattle defense held Bucs without a point over final 47:53, and Seattle is still 3 up on Cards in weak NFC West. Panthers a shell of '15's edition. Last week, they turned 24-7 deficit, into 32-24 lead, but lost 35-32 in last 1:45. Cards are on a 6-11-2 ATS slide, and occupy last place in the NFC South. Carroll is 9-2 ATS off a SU non-division loss vs a less than .500 opponent. |
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12-04-16 | Redskins +2.5 v. Cardinals | 23-31 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Eight covers in nine games for th Redskins, who went tooth-&-nail with the Cowboys in that Thanksgiving Day shootout. During one 2nd half stretch of that one, the two scored TDs on 5 consecutive drives, with Cousins 41-of-53 for 449 passing yards with 3 touchdown and 0 interceptions. That set a Washington record of two 400-yard passing games in a season. Check just 1 punt vs Dallas, as well as an eventual cover. Washington is 12-4 ATS and the underdog is 8-1 ATS in Washington games. Arizona has dropped 4 straight, allowing 29.5 points per game and on 5-16 ATS run. Upset call in this one |
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12-04-16 | Bucs +3.5 v. Chargers | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Three straight wins & covers for the Bucs, who are just 1 game back of the Falcons. Check holding Seattle to only 5 points and 245 yards, causing 3 turn overs. Despite that one, the visitor in Buc games is 27-15 ATS, and Tampa covered its last 3 road games by 9, 17, 9 points, and Jameis has been purring of late (21-of-26 vs Seahawks, with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions for the season). Chargers took Texans, thanks mainly to 4 takeaways, including 3 picks. Visitor is 17-6 ATS in Charger games, and San Diego is still 2 games back in the AFC West cellar. Bucs call in this one. |
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12-04-16 | Bills v. Raiders -3 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Five straight wins for the Raiders, who've reached 30+ points in their L4 games, & 5-of-last-6, while topping 26 points in 10-of their last-11. The Raiders are now guaranteed their first winning season since '02. Last week, Carr went out with an injury vs the Panthers, but came back to overcome an 8-point deficit in the 4th, setting up Janikowski's winning field goal. He now has 22 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions. Bills got the big play to overcome the Jags (McCoy: 75-yard TD run), amassing 241 2nd half yards, after only 63 in first 2 quarters. Buffalo is 0-4 ATS vs Oakland. I am going to lay the FG. |
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12-04-16 | Eagles v. Bengals -1.5 | 14-32 | Win | 100 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seems impossible, but the Bengals have won just 1 game since Sept 29, suffering one bitter defeat after another, losing their last 3 contests by 1, 4, & 5 points. Cincinnati ranks a respectable 9th on offense (Dalton: just 12 touchdowns wih 6 interceptions, and 32 sacks), but there are 26 NFL teams with more wins. Have a bit of an edge here, as the home team is 9-1 SU & ATS in Eagle games (8-0 lately). Philly is 10-1 ATS vs the AFC , but Cincy is 9-0 ATS vs the Eagles, a pretty interesting stat, considering that they play each other once every 4 years. |
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12-03-16 | Virginia Tech +10.5 v. Clemson | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 76 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units ACC Championship Well, the Tigers sure bounced back in style, following their last-second loss to Pittsburgh, with combined 91-20 point edge, along with a 60-23 firstdown edge. Watson in rout of South Carolina last week was 26-of-32 for 347 yards with 6 touchdowns and 1 interception. And note 254 & 240 rushing yards L2, after only 50 vs Pitt. So Clemson rounding into form at the right time. However, underdog is 29-17 ATS in Virginia Tech games, & Hokies 20th, 19th in scoring & total defense. QB Evans a solid 16 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions. Take the points. |
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12-03-16 | San Diego State v. Wyoming +7.5 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 76 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Unit Mountain West Championship A quick shot at revenge for Aztecs, who lost to 'Boys 2 weeks ago, failing in 2-point try with no time remaining. They were on a 14-4-1 ATS run, behind overland dominance, but check ending regular season on 0-2 SU & ATS runs (-54½ points), with Pumphrey held to just 129 rushing yards (3.7 yards per rush). Even with that, he still sits at #2 (159 yards per game, 6/3 ypr). Cowboys allowed 568 rushing yards in loss to New Mexico (35-7 halftime deficit), but are still at 41.5 points per game in their L8 games. I am taking Wyoming |
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12-03-16 | Temple v. Navy -3 | 34-10 | Loss | -112 | 68 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Unit AAC Championship Super spread streak of Owls just keeps on going. Now 10-0 ATS (+69½ points in their last 5), and rank 3rd in the land in total defense. A 37-3 windup in last weeks 37-10 rout of East Carolina. QB Walker is a pedestrian 18 touchdowns with 12 interceptions and Owls rank just 64th in total offense. Middies are simply on fire, with current 5-1-1 ATS run by 102 points. They have had an amazing 59-14 & 54-7 windups the last 2 weeks, while running for 480, 495 yards. I Fully respect the Owls' super run, but they won't contain Navy. |
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12-03-16 | Kansas State +4.5 v. TCU | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 62 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day The Wildcats let me down, big time, last week, as I had them a Top Rated Choice. On their way to a typical rout of in state rival Kansas, they led 27-3 (26-point favorite) with nearly 10 minutes left in the 3rd, & having the Jays penned in at KU's 5, they allowed a 95-yard TD pass. They later led 34-9 with 14:56 left, but never scored again. Looking to this one, perhaps? Snyder well remembers the Frogs scoring 2 TDs in final 6:05 of last year's 52-45 loss. Tcu hasn't covered at home all year, losing their last home game by 24½ points ATS. And comparative scores all in KSt's favor. They also covered their last road game by 23 points. |
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12-02-16 | Ohio v. Western Michigan -18.5 | 23-29 | Loss | -106 | 51 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units MAC Championship For the first time since '12, no Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois in this one. Perfect Broncos in off turning 17-14 lead vs Toledo into 45-14 lead. Now a 361-147 point edge in L8 games. QB Terrell now at 30 touchdowns with only 1 interception and 72% completion rate. Western Michigan also ranking 1st in turn over ratio. The Undog is king in Bobcat games: 9-3 ATS by 115 points ATS, and OU fields the 5th best run defense. But note just 76th in scoring offense. They won't be able to trade points with this juggernaut, & 3-TD spot is actually reasonable |
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11-28-16 | Packers v. Eagles -3.5 | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These 2 have playoff history here: "4th & 26" from McNabb to Freddie Mitchell in 2003, & Green Bay winning Wild Card here in 2010, on way to its Super Bowl title. Eagles still haven't won a playoff game since trading Donovan. The Packers are on a 4-game slide, allowing 38.3 points per game in that stretch. They have given up 162 & 151 rushing yards the past 2 games. Rodgers does his part (25 touchdowns with 7 interceptions, including 355 passing yards with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions last week). The home team is now 9-1 both SU & ATS in Philly games this year, so extending Packer problems seems a given. |
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11-27-16 | Chiefs +3 v. Broncos | 30-27 | Win | 110 | 82 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units SNF Smoker The Broncos come into this one rested in off taking New Orleans on a blocked PAT runback for 25-23 win in final 1:22, when they seemed headed for a 24-23 loss. So another underdog cover, with the pup standing at 14-6 ATS in Denver games, while the visitor is now a highly profitable 40-12 ATS in Kansas City contests. The Chiefs' 5-game run is now history, with 2-point loss to Tampa, and a 99-yard deficit to boot. Broncos are 1-10 ATS as division hosts off a SU underdog win. KC won 29-13 here last year, as 4½ point dogs. So I'll call for a repeat. |
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11-27-16 | Cardinals +4 v. Falcons | 19-38 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Its Back to business for these rested Falcons, who've reached the 30-point mark 6 times in 10 games, behind Ryan's 24 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Check their last 2 home games: 30-33 OT loss, & 33-32 win. The underdog is 19-3 ATS in Falcon games, 12-1 more recently, by 114½ points ATS. Cards dominated Minnesota (135-72 rushing yard edge), but were killed by a pair of 100-yard TD returns. The #2 offense vs the #2 defense here. Plenty of fireworks, but the Card backs are already to the wall. |
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11-27-16 | Titans -4.5 v. Bears | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 75 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tough loss for Titans in setback at Indy, as they nearly overcame quick 21-0 deficit in 2nd, before losing 24-17. But they are still at 31.3 points per game in their last 7 outings, with Mariota a sizzling 19 touchdowns with 3 interceptions in this stretch. Bears have bookend covers (1½ ponts last week), surrounding a 36-10 loss at Tampa. Led Giants, 16-6, before losing 22-16. However, just a single turnover, following 4-giveaway showing at the Bucs. Mularkey is 9-2 ATS as a favorite vs |
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11-27-16 | 49ers v. Dolphins -7.5 | 24-31 | Loss | -100 | 74 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dolphins have been playing excellent ball over their last 5 games (5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS). They were at 29 points per game in the first 4 games of this run, before coming out flat vs the Rams, trailing 10-0 late. But consecutive 77 & 75 yard TD drives, for the 14-0 win in the final 0:30. Winning breeds winning. The Niners are on 0-9 SU & 1-8 ATS runs, with their nonexistent defense allowing at least 30 points in 7 of those 9. I just can't ignore mere 7.5 spread here. |
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11-26-16 | East Carolina v. Temple -20.5 | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 94 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nine straight covers for Owls, & that includes 22-point payoff hosting 9-2 South Florida. Pirates have allowed 42 points per game in their last 4 road games, and although they rank 5th in passing, not enough to offset defensive woes. Take Temple |
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11-26-16 | Auburn v. Alabama -17 | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 90 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This one has been a "throw away the records" classic. The 8-3 Tigers rank 5th in rushing offense, but note just 7 points, 164 yards, 10 first downs in loss to Georgia 2 weeks back. Alabama again the standard. Just look to 3 weeks back, when they held Lsu to 6 first downs and 33 rushing yards. It's Alabama again |
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11-26-16 | Kansas v. Kansas State -26.5 | Top | 19-34 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 58 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Big-12 Game of the Week The Jays snapped a 9-game losing streak in OT win vs Texas, after tying it in final 0:07. Six take aways were obviously the key. Kansas State a 28-7 wind up in win at Baylor, so now bowl eligible. Kansas State at 264 rushing yards per game in their L4 games, and should continue vs KU's 111th ranked run defense. The Cats own them |
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11-25-16 | Cincinnati v. Tulsa -22.5 | Top | 37-40 | Loss | -104 | 72 h 35 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Holiday Weekend Game of the Week Total mismatch here, as Tulsa at 44 points per game in L8 lined game, and in off 348-88 rushing yard edge at Central Florida. Evans, Brewer, Flanders, & Co keep on doing it. Cincinnati a 26-112 point deficit in their L4 games. Just one cover since Sept 10th. |
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11-25-16 | Boise State -9 v. Air Force | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -106 | 66 h 7 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit CFB Play of the Day The visitor still the way to go in Bronco games. No TD passes from Rypien vs Unlv, but another 206 McNichols rushing yards (143 per game and 22 TDs). Four straight wins for Falcons (8-3 SU), but on 1-6 ATS slide, needing 22-yard TD pass in final 0:32 to get by 3-8 San JoseState. Broncos in this one! |
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11-24-16 | LSU -6.5 v. Texas A&M | 54-39 | Win | 100 | 47 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The loss of Knight is crucial to Texas A&M. Still haven't covered since Sept (0-6-1 ATS), and no home payoffs since opener. Bengals a 153-yard edge vs Florida, but a 16-10 loss, managing only 3 points over final 47:36. Lsu has 1,521-481 rushing yard edge in 5-of-6 games ('Bama), and own Aggies overland. |
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11-24-16 | Redskins v. Cowboys -7 | 26-31 | Loss | -100 | 43 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The amazing Cowboys have now won 9 straight games, both on the field, & vs the points (+82½ points ATS). They continue to do it behind the brilliant rookie duo of QB Prescott, who is now a highly efficient 17 touchdowns with only 2 interceptions, & RB Elliott, who leads the NFL with 1,102 yards. Last week, Dallas punted on its first 4 possessions, but got it into gear, with Dak 14-of-15 after intermission, in a 27-17 win. Redskins burning it up as well, with 7-1 ATS run (only miss by 2 points), and taking Packers apart, in 42-24 romper. However, as hot as the Cowboys are, this on is a home call |
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11-21-16 | Texans v. Raiders -5.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Raiders are the surprise team of the NFL thus, far, even exceeding the Cowboys by a little. Oakland has 57 first downs and 1,023 yards in their last 2 games (30-24 at Tampa, & 30-20 hosting Denver). They've reached 28+ points in 7 of their last 9 games. Carr has 2,505 passing yards, hitting 66% of his passes, with 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, with Cooper 3rd in receiving yards. They also have a +9 turnover ratio. Texans in off 1st road win, although QB Osweiler managed just 3.3 yards per throw. He was sacked 5 times by Khalil Mack (including a safety) last Dec, when the Raiders faced the Broncos. This one is an Oakland call. |
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