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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-27-15 | San Diego Chargers +2 v. Minnesota Vikings | 14-31 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are young with enough talent to be playoff contenders. Each relies on their superstar. Philip Rivers is healthy again, something he wasn’t during his second half of the season nosedive last year. Adrian Peterson is back running with authority, but still rusty fumbling three times last week. Minnesota has allowed an average of 3.4 sacks during its last 14 games. San Diego is on the road a second consecutive week with an early start time. The Chargers, however, have covered 64 percent during the last 22 times they’ve been a regular season underdog and also are 16-7 ATS when playing out of division |
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09-26-15 | UCLA v. Arizona +4 | 56-30 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bloom is off the Rosen, as Bruin QB was just 11-of-23 for 106 yards with 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions last week. But Perkins has 370 rushing yards the last 2 weeks. Took Byu in last 3:21. 'Cats not the best of host plays, but undefeated and Solomon a perfect 10 touchdowns with 0 interceptions for the season. The host owns this series, and veteran 'Zona should extend it |
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09-26-15 | Texas State v. Houston -16 | 14-59 | Win | 100 | 94 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston is rested off upset of Louisville, in which they had a 226-70 rushing yard edge. Now on 19-7-1 ATS run. Well remember last years shocking loss to the 'Cats, as 38-point favorites. Texas State allowing 560 yards per game, and pay price |
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09-26-15 | Mississippi State +2.5 v. Auburn | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 94 h 45 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Game of the Week Tigers were never in the LSU game going down 24-0 at the half, with a 411-160 rushing yard deficit. QB Johnson their only offense? They are Now 1-8 ATS in SEC play. Bulldogs and Prescott 5 touchdowns a 0 interceptions this year picking up where they left off in '14, and the dog is 8-1 ATS in Mississippi State contests. The wrong team is favored in this one |
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09-26-15 | San Diego State v. Penn State -14.5 | 21-37 | Win | 100 | 89 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Penn State coming on. Check rushing yard outputs so far of 77, 200, 330. Barkley and Lynch versus Rutgers had 195 and 120 rushing yards (9.3 and 12.0 yards per rush. The Lions own 12th best run defense. Aztecs faltering (-38½ points ATS this year). In off overtime loss to South Alabama, with a 511-305 yard deficit, and have the 125th rushing offense. |
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09-26-15 | Virginia Tech -8 v. East Carolina | 28-35 | Loss | -106 | 89 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nice rebounding for 'Hokies after opening loss to Ohio Stare, with Motley 2-0 since replacing Brewer. Tech held Purdue to 9 first downs, with 471-265 yard edge. East Carolina took them in final 0:16 a year ago, but is currently 2-9 ATS (-79½ points), and ranks 125th in rushing offense. Tech blows them out! |
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09-25-15 | Stanford -16 v. Oregon State | 42-24 | Win | 100 | 31 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Has the "buy sign" been lit following Card upset of Usc? Turned 21-10 deficit into 41-31 win, with 39:29-20:31 time edge. Hogan: 620 passing yards, 5 touchdowns in the last 2 weeks. Finally a win and cover for Beavers versus hapless San Jose State, coming from 59 rushing yards to 303. But still on 2-9 ATS run. |
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09-24-15 | Washington Redskins +4 v. NY Giants | 21-32 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Given Tony Romo’s collarbone injury and how poorly the Eagles are playing this NFC East matchup takes on added significance. Despite being beset with defensive injuries, the Giants would be 2-0 instead of 0-2 if not for blowing fourth quarter leads against Dallas and Atlanta. Statistically-speaking, the Redskins could be 2-0 instead of 1-1. They have outgained their two opponents, Dolphins and Rams, 722 yards to 469 while owning time of possession with an average of 37:49 minutes to 22:11. The Giants’ run defense needs the return of injured middle linebacker Jon Beason to help combat the Redskins’ 1-2 running punch of Alfred Morris and Matt Jones. |
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09-21-15 | NY Jets v. Indianapolis Colts -7 | 20-7 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's a division sandwich for the Colts, but after their dismal showing at Buffalo, a quick bounce back is in the Cards for Luck and his teammates. Five takeaways greased the skids for Bowles' first win as new HC of the Jets, but continuing versus this type is unlikely, especially in this setup, as Indy is a perfect 9-0 ATS as a Monday chalk of greater than 1½ points. The Jets are 0-7 as September underdogs versus an opponent off a SU favorite loss. Throw in Pagano's record of 10-1 ATS off a SU loss. Colts a bit more firepower than the Browns |
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09-20-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. Green Bay Packers -3 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit SNF Smoker Rodgers has a tremendously balanced offense with Eddie Lacy and Randall Cobb. Picking up veteran James Jones, a wide receiver Rodgers is comfortable with, was a huge plus. Seattle’s defense isn’t as dominant on the road and currently is minus holdout star safety Kam Chancellor. Seattle is far from intimidating away from CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks are 2-9 SU and ATS during their last 11 September road games. Marshawn Lynch hasn’t been as effective on the road and he’s running behind a mediocre-at-best offensive line that when the shuffling finally stopped starts two players who went undrafted and one who was taken in the seventh round of the draft. This has Green Bay’s written all over it. |
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09-20-15 | Dallas Cowboys +5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFC Game of the Day The Cowboys have a veteran, productive, high-percentage in passer in Tony Romo as an underdog against the Sam Bradford-led Eagles, who are all about “potential.” Bradford, a 58.2% career completion percentage person, has played all of one real game for Philly. It wasn’t pretty, and although there is potential to improve, potential at -5 is a tightrope walk. The Eagles could not run DeMarco Murray much on Monday Night because of the scoreboard situation. The situation was that they were trailing by 17 points at halftime. A lot of people assume that when they start 0-0 here, Murray will make the Cowboys suffer for letting him go to Philadelphia in free agency. But he’s no lock to run as well as he did behind the Eagles line as he did behind the Dallas line. Different blocking schemes. And the Cowboys know how to make him fumble. |
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09-20-15 | San Francisco 49ers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -6 | 18-43 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Steelers out played the Pats in theirThursday Night game, 464-361 in total yards, with Ben tossing for 351 yards. RB Williams also had 127 rushing yards. A year ago, Pittsburgh scored at least 30 points in 5 of its first 6 home games, so why not again, as Steelers catch 49ers off their Monday Night game with the Vikings. San Francisco had a 217-165 point deficit in their previous 10 games prior to last Monday, and were 0-5-1 ATS, by 48½ points. It's all Pittsburgh today until the Niners find some answers. |
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09-20-15 | Arizona Cardinals v. Chicago Bears +2.5 | 48-23 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Palmer has been simply splendid during his gig with the Cards. last week: 307 passing yards along with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, and he has become the first Card QB since Jim Hart to win 7 straight starts. 'Zona also posted 120 rushing yards, but 69 of those yards came from Ellington (5.8 yards per rush), and he is questionable for this one. The Bears are in a Packer/Seahawk sandwich here, but they did move it versus Green Bay (402-322 yard edge and 25 first downs), behind 142 rushing yards from Forte. Jake had only 1 touchdown with 1 interception last week , but a bit of awakening this time around. |
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09-20-15 | Houston Texans +3 v. Carolina Panthers | 17-24 | Loss | -101 | 19 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texans got off slowly versus the Chiefs, with a 27-6 deficit, before 27-20 final. A 2-0 turnover deficit is always crucial, and insertion of Mallett for Hoyer was a success, going 8-of-13 with 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions. Houston has held its last 5 opponents to 20 points or less. Carolina is 6-1 SU (Seattle),and that Panther defense has held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 11.3 points per game. They had 5 sacks and 3 takeaways versus the Jags, although Carolina managed just 263 yards, and one offensive touchdown. Houston is 5-0 SU in their 2nd game of the year, so call an upset in what should be a defensive struggle. |
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09-20-15 | St Louis Rams v. Washington Redskins +3.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seems like nothing but negatives for the Redskins who are 6-19 ATS, have a 68-17 point deficit in their last 3 non-division home games, and have failed to reach 21 points in 13 of their last 18 games. But a look at last week's stats shows Washington with 161-74 rushing yard edge over the Dolphins, but losing on a punt return for a touchdown. Cousins was a nice 21-of-31, and they had 121 rushing yards from Morris. In this one, they catch the Rams in a Seattle/Pittsburgh sandwich. Successful OT effort versus Seahawks by St. Louis, was draining, with just 1 touchdown pass from Foles. Redskins in a outright win. |
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09-19-15 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -6 | Top | 43-37 | Loss | -115 | 104 h 55 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Game of the Week Rebel QB race is over with Kelly tossing for 346 yards and 4 touchdowns versus Fresno, in 73-21 balanced romp (22-point cover). Just 1 offensive touchdown for 'Tide in last years loss to Ole Miss, so you know Alabama will be more than ready. Super balance, behind Coke and Henry, and they held Wisconsin to 40 rushing yards. In addition, This is a big revenge game for the Tide who are 8/2 SU and 7-3 ATS with revenge under Nick Saban |
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09-19-15 | Georgia Tech -2.5 v. Notre Dame | 22-30 | Loss | -108 | 48 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Costly win for Irish last week at Viginia (after getting a touchdown last 0:12), losing QB Zaire in the process, although Kizer was decent going 8-of-12 with 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. In addition check out 155 rushing from Prosise. But Jackets at 457.5 rushing yards per game and on an 8-0 ATS run (+174 points). Only 1 TD allowed this year (44-yard pass). |
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09-19-15 | Cincinnati -19.5 v. Miami (OH) | 37-33 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Highly misleading loss for Bearcats versus Temple, as 4 Kiel picks offset 34-13 first down and 557-296 yard edges. Dog mystique of MU faded a bit with 58-0 loss to Wisconsin (9 first downs). Cincinnati has won the last nine meetings and will extend that skein if they avoid the turnovers that plagued them last week |
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09-19-15 | East Carolina v. Navy -3.5 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 98 h 24 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week After a strong performance versus Towson on Week 1, ECU’s top ball-carrier, Chris Hairston, had only 15 yards on 17 carries versus Florida. This is the biggest Navy team ever. The five projected starting OL average 288 pounds. The three fullbacks range from 245 to 255. The top WR, Jamir Tillman, stands 6’4”. The QB, Keenan Reynolds, belongs in the Heisman conversation. Reynolds is on course to set the NCAA career mark for rushing touchdowns. ECU gave a spirited effort in Gainesville in a futile quest to avenge last year’s bowl loss. Navy opened with Colgate and was idle last week. The Midshipmen are an easy call. |
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09-19-15 | Rice -7.5 v. North Texas | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 88 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Texas/Baylor sandwich for Owls, who held 30-11 first down, 462-277 yard and 44:02-17:58 time edges over 'Horns (5-0 TO deficit killed them). A 442-244 yard deficit for Green at SMU who supposedly has flimsy defense. No issue laying the points in this one. |
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09-17-15 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs -3 | 31-24 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s always a tough spot for the Thursday visitor being forced to travel so early in the week. A greater concern for the Broncos, though, is their offense and Peyton Manning’s decline. Denver’s offense ran out of steam losing to the Bengals during Week 16 of last season and being held to 13 points in the playoffs by Indianapolis. Then this past Sunday, Manning could lead Denver to only four field goals at home against Baltimore. The Chiefs’ run defense is strengthened by the return of 346-pound nose tackle Dontari Poe. |
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09-14-15 | Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | 24-26 | Loss | -117 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Twenty wins for the Eagles since the arrival of Kelly, and Philadelphia is at 30.3 points per game in their last 25 games (covered last road game by 10½ points). By the same token, note that the Falcons finished last season at 28 points per game in 5 of their final 6 games. The Eagles have added RB Murray from Dallas, as well as Bradford from the Rams, so an even more potent offense. The Falcons have just 10 wins the last 2 years, opening 2-9 and 2-6 SU. Matty Ice still flinging it (4,694 yards and 28 touchdowns in '14), but no running, and very little defense, so they grabbed DC Quinn from Seattle. It will take time to improve so take the more prolific offense. |
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09-13-15 | Baltimore Ravens +5 v. Denver Broncos | 13-19 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Ravens defense finished in the top eight in fewest yards allowed per game and fewest points per game in 2014. They have the finest pass rushing tandem in the NFL in Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs, who teamed up for 29 sacks last season. They can disrupt Manning’s precious flow and timing. Manning desperately needs to have this since he can no longer throw deep anymore. Unlike last year, the Ravens now have a healthy secondary, too. Baltimore hasn’t had a losing year in seven seasons under John Harbaugh, averaging nearly 12 victories per season. The Ravens have covered the last four times they were underdogs, winning three of those games straight-up. |
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09-13-15 | Green Bay Packers -6 v. Chicago Bears | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 43 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jay Cutler has a knack for having his worst games against Green Bay. Cutler has lost the past seven times to the Packers, who have won 18 of their last 22 at Solider Field winning and covering the last five times. Cutler has been picked off 19 times in 10 games versus Green Bay. Chicago’s defense has ranked among the worst in franchise history the last two years. This is saying a lot since the Bears have been playing in Chicago since 1921! Things aren’t looking up either this season as the Bears’ secondary remains highly inviting – ripe for Aaron Rodgers to pick apart. Chicago is just 1-8 ATS versus the Pack (0-5 as series host). While the Favorite is 11-6 ATS in GB games. |
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09-13-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Buffalo Bills +3 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 42 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Buffalo led the NFL in sacks last season, while finishing fourth-best overall defensively holding opponents to an average of 18 points and 312 yards per game. Marcell Dareus, the Bills’ excellent defensive tackle, is suspended for this game. However, Buffalo can still harass Luck with Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes. LeSean McCoy led the NFL in rushing two years ago. He can carry Buffalo’s offense, taking the pressure off Taylor. The Colts’ defense is soft. Taylor brings a running and mobility dimension to Buffalo’s offense. The Bills have upgraded their receiving corps, too, picking up Percy Harvin and tight end Charles Clay to go along with holdovers Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods. The Bills are going to be sky high as this is Rex Ryan’s Buffalo coaching debut. Ryan won his last four season-openers when he was with the Jets. In addition, the host is 12-4 ATS in Bill contests, Buffalo 8-2 ATS in game 1, and 14-4 ATS as series host. |
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09-13-15 | Kansas City Chiefs +1.5 v. Houston Texans | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chiefs have won 20 games in Reid's 2-year tenure, but have only 1 playoff game to show for it. With Denver and Green Bay on deck, a possible tendency to peek ahead, but KC has played its best on the road. As a matter of fact, the visitor is 22-4 ATS in Chief contests, while the Texans are a horrible 2-13 ATS at home the last 2 years. Houston improved dramatically under O'Brien in '14, with winning 9-7 mark, after 2-14 in '13. Wolfork, Clowney, and Watt lead solid defense, but note Texans are just so-so in the aerial game, and loss of Johnson will be felt. |
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09-13-15 | Seattle Seahawks -4 v. St Louis Rams | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -100 | 42 h 27 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day Last year, when the Seahawks played on this field, the Rams (+6½) pulled the 28-26 upset, thanks, in part, to a successful faked punt late in the game. So you know that Seattle who is 47-20-1 ATS lately will be more than prepared. Still one of the best teams in the NFL, especially with that impregnable defense. The addition of TE Graham from New Orleans gives QB Wilson another key option. Rams swapped Bradford for Foles, but their offensive line is still a problem, with the use of rookies needed, so that will take some time. St Louis lost its last home game by 16½ points ATS, and now face determined Seahawks team. |
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09-12-15 | Boise State -2.5 v. BYU | 24-35 | Loss | -108 | 80 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Unbelievable windup in BYU upset at Nebraska (42-yard Mangum touchdown pass on the last play), but can't mask loss of Heisman talented Hill. Visitor 10-2 ATS in Byu games, while Boise is solid road play. Only 83 yards for Broncos in 2nd half versus Washington, but note 185-29 rushing yard edge |
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09-12-15 | Oregon v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -106 | 80 h 47 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week Last week I was on Michigan State and it appears that they were looking to this game versus Oregon. As a result they produced a non-cover win at Western Michigan when they led 34-10 late in 3rd quarter. In that game the Spartans allowed an unthinkable 365 Passing yards, so new Duck QB Adams (19-of-25 last week) could be trouble, and note 485 rushing yards (Freeman: 180). But Michigan State is +164 points ATS in their last 20 games, and are hungry this one. |
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09-12-15 | Arizona v. Nevada +12 | 44-20 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Barnburning series, so why anything different this time around? 'Pack lose 10 starters, and unimpressive versus Davis, but note Jackson's 9.5 yards per rush. 'Cats Solomon last week had 4 touchdowns, but a 525-392 Arizona yard deficit in 22-point ATS loss to Utsa, and 9-of-last-13 SU wins have come by less than 11 points |
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09-12-15 | Oklahoma v. Tennessee | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 78 h 31 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day These 2 were placed 21st & 22nd in our "Polls" column, and have responded accordingly. Oklahoma's Mayfield had 388 passing yards and 3 touchdowns in new Air Raid Offense (439-88 passing yard edge versus Akron), under new offensive coach Riley. The Tennessee Vols turned in 29 first downs, 399 rushing yards, and 604 total yards in rout of Bowling Green, but check 433 passing yards. It will be a shootout with Okie taking it at the end. |
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09-12-15 | Notre Dame -11.5 v. Virginia | 34-27 | Loss | -120 | 74 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cavs are under-the-radar as they covered at Ucla in the final 3:29, and QB Johns is solid. But they have no overland game, and have lost a dozen starters. Can't see them doing much versus this Irish defense (30-8 first down edge versus Texas), and Zaire 19-of-22, 313 yards, with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. |
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09-12-15 | Minnesota v. Colorado State +6.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 69 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hurry up offense under new HC Bobo was a hit versus patsy Savannah (Stevens 289 passing yards, 5 touchdowns in his 1st start), but much tougher versus tenacious Gophers (+103½ points ATS last 5), who had 14-6 windup in cover versus Tcu. Solid defense, but that offense is still a bit iffy. Take the points in a mild upset |
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09-11-15 | Utah State +13 v. Utah | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Utah took Michigan with a 55-yard interception return (along with 3 interceptions) and Wilson was 24-of-33. Sixteen starters, but this is normally wild. Note Utah State's stellar QB Keeton was just 16-of-33 for 110 yards versus Southern Utah, in a lackluster 12-9 win (they needed an 88-yard punt return to take it). I expect things to return to normal tonight. Lot's of points....take |
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09-10-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. New England Patriots -7 | 21-28 | Push | 0 | 25 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Has anyone heard the word "Deflategate" during the off-season? Forget it. He's back. Brady has been given the okay, with his 4-game suspension waved to play tonight. The line reacted to that news by moving from 3 to 7 points. Loss of Revis, Wolfork, and Vareen hurts, but Belichick will plug in TE Chandler, and CB Fletcher. Pats rarely miss a beat regardless of their many changeovers. The host is covered 26-6 in New England games of late, and the Patriots are 9-3 ATS versus the Steelers. Pittsburgh dearly hurt with loss of Polamalu, and defensive coach LeBeau. |
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09-07-15 | Ohio State -11 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 42-24 | Win | 100 | 141 h 1 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Units The Hokies are always a premier dog, and are especially primed for this one, after doing a number on the national champs last year. However, this Buckeye team has no weaknesses, as they were >41 points 11 times last year, and +106½ points ATS in their last 3 games. You can forget the fact that the dog is 7-0 ATS in OSU games. Elliott is unstoppable, as are all QBs. A huge revenge call here. |
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09-05-15 | Wisconsin +12 v. Alabama | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units All-everything running back Melvin Gordon is on to the NFL but there's not an abundance of fear over that loss with junior Corey Clement (949 yards, nine touchdowns) coming off a highly productive backup season. Senior quarterback Joel Stave looks to rebound after throwing more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (nine) last season and Chryst visions him returning to his 2013 form when he tossed 24 scoring passes. The Badgers ranked fourth nationally in total defense last season (294.1) and return two standout outside linebackers in junior Vince Biegel (team-best 16.5 tackles for losses) and senior Joe Schobert (13.5) as well senior safety Michael Caputo (team-high 106 tackles). This may be Nick Saban’s weakest Alabama team. There’s only one QB on the roster that has taken a snap in a real game and he’s a journeyman. |
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09-05-15 | Texas +10 v. Notre Dame | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Units NCAAF Play of the Day Notre Dame won its first six games last season before Everett Golson’s turnover problems at quarterback helped lead to a 2-5 finish. Golson is gone after a transfer to Florida State and Malik Zaire, who started a win over LSU in the Music City Bowl last season, will take over under center. Zaire will get a stiff test in the opener from Texas, which had its problems on offense last season under first-year coach Charlie Strong, but was stout defensively and held opposing quarterbacks to an average of 184.2 yards passing. The Irish are just 11-11 ATS. |
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09-05-15 | Arizona State +3 v. Texas A&M | 17-38 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Not really a nuetral game for the Aggies, but the host edge has hardly been an advantage, having gone 0-6 ATS in that role since the departure of Manziel. On a 2-5 SU slide, with their only wins coming by only 5 and 3 points. Arizona State has seen the last of QB Kelly, but the defense returns 10 starters, and is vastly improved. |
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09-05-15 | Louisville +11 v. Auburn | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 89 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Unit Upset Special This could very well be a shootout, despite the fact that both return 3 down linemen on defense. The Tigers are only 2-8 ATS, following their 12-0 run in '13, and they've said good-bye to QB Marshall, while the Cardinals are fantastic away from home, and have scored 30 or more points in 7 of their last 8 games. Eagles not the best of favorites, so a dog call here. |
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09-04-15 | Michigan State -17.5 v. Western Michigan | 37-24 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A quick look at my stats archive shows the Spartans possessing a 12-2 spread record as a road favorite, while the Broncos sport a 2-8 mark as a home dog. In their last meeting ('13) Michigan State managed just 1 offensive touchdown , but the emergence of QB Cook leaves that former unit in the dust. Michigan State is +167½ points ATS in their last 19 games, and their defense is outstanding. |
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09-04-15 | Baylor -35 v. SMU | 56-21 | Push | 0 | 68 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Well, the Bears are averaging 51.3 points per game over their last 31 games, and return 18 starters, although 1 of the 4 departed includes brilliant QB Petty. However, BU should hardly miss a beat with Russell. The Mustangs had a 133-492 point deficit last year, being held to 10 points or less 9 times, and despite 16 returning starters, are simply owned by BU. |
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09-03-15 | TCU -14 v. Minnesota | 23-17 | Loss | -120 | 47 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - Can the absolute unbelievable offense of the Frogs continue, versus this always tenacious Minnesota squad? Well, the Gophers did cover their last 4 games by 93½ points, but note the Frogs are at +198½ points ATS in their last 13 lined games, as well as having a 145-16 point edge in their last 4 games. Boykin and 9 other starters return, so I am giving the nod over the Gophers and their 10-2 ATS run as an underdog. |
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09-03-15 | Oklahoma State -24.5 v. Central Michigan | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 0 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Well, it didn't take the Cowboys long to regain their offensive form, covering their last 3 games by a combined 46½ points, including an shocking upset of Oklahoma. No less than 17 starters return, so that momentum should carry over. The Chips are horrible in the home dog role, with the favorite on a 20-8 ATS run. |
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02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks +1 v. New England Patriots | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New England has the more dangerous and varied offense. The Patriots put up 35 points on Baltimore and 45 points on Indianapolis during the playoffs. The Ravens gave up the sixth-fewest points per game on the season and tied for the second-most sacks, while the Colts had been on a defensive roll holding the Bengals and Broncos to a combined 23 points in their two playoff contests. Again, if not counting the meaningless regular-season finale against the Bills, the Patriots would have averaged 33.4 points a game. That would have ranked No. 1 in the league. If you add in their two playoff victories, the Patriots’ scoring average goes up even higher to nearly 35 points a game. New England’s defense is decent enough to slow down the Seahawks, who will be overly dependent on Lynch with their limited wide receivers facing a much improved Patriots secondary that features shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis. The Patriots are opportunistic being a plus 12 in turnover margin, which tied for second-best. They have the high-powered versatile offense that can put up enough points against a Seahawks defense that is down several defensive linemen, including underrated nose tackle Brandon Mebane, and whose secondary could be banged-up worse than they are letting on. Seattle is very tough and resilient. The Seahawks are a proud Super Bowl champion. But this matchup is at a neutral site so Seattle isn’t going to have its fabled 12th man advantage. The recommendation here isn’t against the Seahawks. It’s on New England in a battle of two great teams |
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01-18-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -6.5 | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 29 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Brady, hasn’t shown signs of slippage during the second half of the season like Peyton Manning and he isn’t a choke artist like Andy Dalton. The Colts weren’t able to step up when they lost to the Ravens, 24-9, in the playoffs during Luck’s first year and they weren’t able to step up last season at Foxboro in the playoffs. Luck keeps getting better. He very well may be the most valuable player nextseason, but right now the Patriots still have too much for the Colts to overcome on the road. Luck has failed three times to dent Belichick’s defense, lacking a ground attack and enough receiving weapons to accomplish the task, which is made more difficult by the Patriots upgrading their secondary by having Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner come on board this season. Indy’s time is getting closer, but it’s not here yet. |
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01-18-15 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks -7.5 | 22-28 | Loss | -103 | 25 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Seahawks own the premier home field in the NFL (22-2 SU), and are on a 47-18-1 ATS run overall. They rank not only #1 overall on defense, but #1 versus the pass, as well. Wilson continues to amaze. A nice 15-of-22 versus the Panthers. He was 8-for-8 on 3rd down throws, while averaging 24.9 yards per throw (highest in NFL this year). A bevy of receivers, with Lynch always a threat to take it the distance. An overpowering force, with an attitude other squads can only dream to duplicate. The Packers, of course, are just 4 seasons removed from their Super Bowl title, and have been a steady elite ever since the emergence of Rodgers as possibly the premier passer in the league. He had an amazing 41 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions this season, as well as his 66% passing. In that comeback win over Dallas, he was 9-of-9 in the 4th, the best by a QB in the playoffs in 25 years! However, although the Packers are averaging 32. 7 points per game in their last 14 games, the favorite is on an 11-5-1 ATS run in Green Bay games, and the Pack has just 1 road win since Sept (24-21 at Minny: 5½ point ATS loss). And that defense has allowed 20+ points in 7 of its last 8 games |
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01-12-15 | Ohio State +7 v. Oregon | 42-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ohio State was impressive in dismissing Alabama. In their 12 starts since their Week Two loss to Virginia Tech, the Buckeyes have out-gained their opponents by an average of 203 yards. RB Ezekiel Elliott has been a ball of fire, rushing for 450 yards on only 40 carries in his last two outings vs. teams that were noted for their defenses (Alabama had allowed only three rushing touchdowns all season). QB Cardele Jones is very green, but he has a howitzer for an arm – hes averaging 16.7 yards per completion – and he will be throwing into an OU secondary minus Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, perhaps the nation’s best cornerback. As much as we respect the Oregon program, we can’t lay the points, not with Urban Meyer on the opposite sideline. We’re reminded that Meyer’s second team at Florida was getting 7 ½ points when they opposed Ohio State in the 2006 national title game. Meyer’s team won 41-14. |
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01-11-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -9 | 24-13 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Colts are coming off an impressive showing in blowout of Cincinnati, nearly doubling the Bengals' yardage. Luck had 376 passing yards and now has 5,137 passing yards with 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions for the season. He passed Kurt Warner with the most passing yards in his first 4 playoff starts (1,438 yards). But the home team is covering 6 of the Colts' last 7 games, with their only underdog role since their opener resulting in a 42-7 loss (-31½ points ATS). As far as the Broncos are concerned, they have scored 32.5 points per game in their last 46 games with another 4,727 passing yards from Peyton who finished with 39 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Two years of unbelievable playoff disappointments for the Broncos have resulted in a #3 ranked defense, as well as total dedication. |
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01-11-15 | Dallas Cowboys +6 v. Green Bay Packers | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cowboys have ridden a 5-game winning streak (37.8 ppg) to this point. And they own a perfect 8-0 SU record away (7-1 ATS). In Romo (36/9), they have the NFL's top-rated QB, & in Murray, the league's #1 rusher (1,920 yds). They do it behind a top-quality "O" line. That comeback win over Detroit marked the first time in franchise-history that Dallas has won after a DD halftime deficit. On fire. These are two evenly matched squads so take the points |
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01-10-15 | Carolina Panthers +13 v. Seattle Seahawks | 17-31 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Panthers and Seahawks have met each of the last three years – all at Carolina. Seattle won each time – but never by more than five points. Wilson threw a 23-yard touchdown pass with 47 seconds left to give the Seahawks a 13-9 win against Carolina this year. Wilson also threw a fourth quarter touchdown pass to beat the Panthers, 12-7, two years ago and the Seahawks narrowly beat Carolina, 16-12, in 2012. So in three games against the Panthers the past three seasons, the Seahawks have averaged 13.6 points. This is by far the lowest over/under total of the four playoff games. Points are going to be at a premium. So why not take them? |
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01-10-15 | Baltimore Ravens +7.5 v. New England Patriots | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For 12 of the last 14 years, the Patriots are again in the playoffs, & as has always been the case, they open at home. But although they've won 9 of those 11 on the field, they stand at 6-4-1 ATS. And they're just 3-7 ATS in playoff home games since '07, regardless the round. They sport a 33-17 point per game edge at home in '14, & are on an 8-3 ATS run in meaningful games (+129 points). Brady continues to do it: 64%, with 33 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, and 4,109 passing yards. The Ravens, however, are tied with GreenBay for the most playoff road wins (10), & Flacco's 7 wins as playoff visitor are the most since '70 merger. Baltimore at 26.9 points per game in their last 13 games, & won AFC title here in '12. |
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01-04-15 | Detroit Lions v. Dallas Cowboys -6.5 | 20-24 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cowboys have been December wonders, with 4-0 run (165-79 point edge SU, and +77 points ATS), with Romo at 75% with 12 touchdowns and only 1 interception. They have topped 30 points in 6 of their last 7 games, & Tony now has 34 touchdowns and 9 interceptions on the year. Throw in Murray's 1,845 rushing yards and Bryant's 16 touchdown catches, and you have quite a machine. The Lion defense is second to only Seattle, but this is another matter. The home team is 6-1 ATS in Detroit games, and the Lions are averaging just 10.7 points per game in their last 3 road games. |
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01-04-15 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Indianapolis Colts -3 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bengals haven't won a playoff game since Jan 6, 1991. This marks their 4th straight Wild Card placement, & so far, results haven't been good, especially for Dalton, who has tossed 6 interceptionss in 31-10, 19-13, & 27-10 losses. He has just 19 touchdowns with 17 interceptions for the season, but Cincinnati was in division chase until final week. However, the Bengals' 5 losses have been by 26, 27, 21, 21, & 10 points. Luck broke Manning's passing yard record with 4,761 yards, and that Indy offense should prove too much |
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01-03-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | 30-17 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No questioning the solid edge of the home team in this year's series, with covers of 17½ & 21½ points. Roethlisberger just continues to do it with 4,952 passing yards and 32 touchdowns with only 9 interceptions. And Brown is the NFL's top receiver (1,698 yards), with his 71 & 63 yard touchdowns breaking Cincinnati's back last week. However, Bell (#2 rusher) is out with a knee injury. The Ravens came back from 4th quarter TD deficit versus the Browns. Flacco comes in with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and Forsett has 1,266 yards with NFL-best 5.4 yards per rush. Pitt has scored 29.0 points per game in their last 8 home games and you can't ignore that. |
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01-03-15 | Arizona Cardinals +7 v. Carolina Panthers | 16-27 | Loss | -118 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Have to wonder just how good the Cards could have been with a healthy Palmer. But such is the case, as they're down to 3rd-stringer Lindley (41-of-83 past 2 wks, but 4 picks). Just 12.1 ppg in their last 7 outings, but that "D" has held 12 foes to 20 pts or less. And check an 18-6-1 ATS run, as well as a 19-6 SU skein. The Panthers have turned it around, with current 4-game run, allowing 10.8 ppg, off a 6-game slide, so are only the 2nd playoff team with a losing record. Cam is only 18/12, but doing what must be done. Cards won't fold their tent. |
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01-02-15 | Oklahoma State v. Washington -6 | 30-22 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cowboys, who returned just 8 starters from LY's 10-3 squad, things opened nicely. A 5-1 start, averaging a normal 37.2 ppg) with their only loss coming in a 37-31 killer to #1 FlaSt (12½ pt cover). But things then took a dramatic turn for what has yearly become one of the most feared offensive machines, not only losing their next 5 on the field, while on an 0-6-1 ATS run, but with a 139-51 pt deficit in 3-gm road run stretch. The Huskies have said good-bye to Sarkisian, but have gladly welcomed Petersen from Boise, where he led the Broncos to 8 straight bowls, & a 92-15 record. This team failed in all 5 games vs ranked squads, but won all the rest, the last 6 by an average score of 38-15. QB Miles (2,129 yds, 67%, & 16/3) has a done a decent job in replacing Price, & is not adverse to running it. And Dwayne Washington has run for 383 yds & 5 TDs in UW's last 3 games. The Huskie "D" may be the key to this contest, as it has racked up 49 sacks, & is mainly responsible for that 20-TO edge over the Cowboys. Only that amazing Baylor comeback win: 67-56 in the '11 Alamo Bowl (2-pt cover) prevents a 4-0 bowl spread run for Huskies |
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01-02-15 | UCLA -1 v. Kansas State | 40-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hundley, who is projected as a first-round NFL draft pick, enters this matchup with a 70.4 completion percentage to go with 3,019 passing yards and 21 touchdowns against five interceptions. He also has contributed 548 yards and eight TDs on the ground, although Paul Perkins (1,378 yards, seven TDs) carries the bulk of the load for the Bruins' ground attack. Still, Perkins and his teammates will need to refocus in the wake of the upset against Stanford, as he told reporters recently: "I don't get over any loss. I lost last night in a video game, I'm still mad about it. The bowl is going to be nice, but it can't make up for the opportunity that we had." |
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01-02-15 | Iowa +3.5 v. Tennessee | 28-45 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units HC Kirk Ferentz is 6-5 SU in bowl games, but his teams have covered the spot in seven of the last nine. Tennessee has played 24 true freshmen, the most of any team. The WR corps has been hit hard by injuries. Foremost among those on the shelf is Marquez North, the prize catch of Butch Jones’ first recruiting class. Tennessee’s best defensive player, LB A.J. Johnson, is also out, having been suspended in mid-November. Johnson is the first player in school history with three seasons of 100-plus tackles. The OL, a problem area all season, allowed nine sacks in the last two games. |
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01-02-15 | Pittsburgh v. Houston +4 | 34-35 | Win | 100 | 2 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite the possibility the school could notch consecutive eight-win seasons, the Cougars are likely wondering what could have been as all three of their conference losses were by seven points or fewer with a chance to win or tie the game on the final possession. Quarterback Greg Ward Jr. – a converted receiver – nearly sparked Houston to a win in relief in the first of those three losses and led the team to a 5-2 finish after replacing fellow sophomore John O'Korn for good on Oct. 11. Second-team All-AAC performer Kenneth Farrow led the league with six 100-yard rushing games and 12 rushing touchdowns. |
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01-01-15 | Ohio State +9 v. Alabama | 42-35 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Buckeyes of Ohio State have fought their way up the rankings, after losing their 2nd game of the year to Virginia Tech, as Miller's replacement Barrett was a horrid 9-of-29. Yet, at year's end, he ranked 3rd in the nation in passing (65%, 34 touchdowns with 10 interceptions). However, he was also to be lost (in dying seconds versus Michigan), so enter Jones, who was good on 12-of-17, for 257 yards with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, in Bucks' simply awesome 59-0 crushing of always tough Wisconsin, in the Big10 title game, holding Gordon to 76 rushing yards (2.9 yards per rush). Nobody outplayed the Bucks, who have a 48.5 point per game average since that loss to the Hokies. Saban & Meyer have been here before |
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01-01-15 | Florida State +8 v. Oregon | 20-59 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Seminoles of Florida State again enter their bowl with a perfect record, although this outfit is not in last year's class, as having to fight from behind has been a season long habit. Winston ('13 Heisman winner) at just 24touchdowns and 17 interceptions, 65%, with 3,559 yards, compared to last years 40 touchdowns with 10 inerceptions, 67%, and 4.057. And Florida State went from 2nd, 6th, 1st, & 3rd in scoring offense, total offense, scoring defense, & total defense in '13, to 27th, 41st, 30th, 51st. But they keep on winning (29 straight), & have a huge chip on their shoulders, for what they consider lack of respect. |
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01-01-15 | Minnesota +5 v. Missouri | 17-33 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Golden Gophers are trying to clinch their second nine-win season in 109 years. Minnesota's offense is centered around the ground game and senior running back David Cobb, who has rushed for a school-record 1,545 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, though sophomore tight end Maxx Williams (29 catches, 471 yards, seven TDs) also is an offensive weapon. Like the Tigers, the Golden Gophers' strength lies on the defensive side of the ball, and Minnesota is especially tough against the pass thanks to All-Big Ten cornerbacks Briean Boddy-Calhoun and Eric Murray, who have combined for five interceptions and 15 pass breakups. |
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01-01-15 | Michigan State +3 v. Baylor | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baylor is on pace to lead the nation in scoring and total offense for the second straight year. But Michigan State is no slouch in these departments. The Spartans scored 517 points and rank #13 in total offense, a jump of 67 spots from last year if they can hold that placement. Moreover, MSU leads the nation in time of possession and turnover margin, has committed far fewer penalties than Baylor, and boasts the superior defense. |
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01-01-15 | Wisconsin v. Auburn -7 | 34-31 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The case for Wisconsin here is that they own the better defense (notwithstanding the Ohio State debacle) and harbor an outstanding infantry led by the nation’s premier running back. Melvin Gordon, who wasn’t 100 percent healthy for Ohio State, figures to blister an Auburn “D” that allowed 1,180 rushing yards in their last six league games. Auburn lost four of those games and finished 4-7 ATS, a far cry from last year when the Tigers covered 11 of 13, including the last 10. The plusses for Auburn include a more resourceful coach and a more dynamic quarterback. Moreover, the Tigers played the stronger schedule. Auburn also experienced something of a rocky December, but the view from here is that the Tigers just may have too much speed for Wisconsin. |
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12-31-14 | Georgia Tech +7 v. Mississippi State | 49-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulldogs of Georgia Tech, are now in their 18th straight bowl campaign, although in just 2 of those previous 17, has Tech reached the 10-win mark (1-1 SU & ATS bowl log). Since the arrival of Johnson in '08, Tech's rushing offense has finished 4th, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 4th, & 6th in the land, with this year's 333 rushing yards per game mark ranking them 3rd, behind just Georgia Southern & Navy. They entered their ACC title game with Florida State on a 5-0 SU & ATS run (31½, 21, 30, 25, & 18½ point covers, & 1,862 rushing yards). They then extended the then 28-0 Seminoles, tying it at 28-28 in the 3rd, before eventual 37-35 loss, despite a 331-179 rushing yard edge. Thomas, of course, is the key, with 965 rushing yards to go along with 1,594 passing yards (17.9 yards per pass). The touchdown spot here seems a bit much. |
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12-31-14 | Boise State +3.5 v. Arizona | 38-30 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Broncos have a big-time running back in Jay Ajayi, who has rushed for 1,689 yards and 25 touchdowns – topping 100 yards nine times – and also has four receiving TDs. Quarterback Grant Hedrick has an impressive 70.9 completion percentage to go with 3,387 yards and 22 touchdowns but also is mistake-prone with 13 interceptions. Strong safety Darian Thompson (seven) and cornerback Donte Deayon (five) have combined for 12 of Boise State’s 20 interceptions with middle linebacker Tanner Vallejo (team-best 86 tackles) and outside linebacker Kamalei Correa (team-leading 10 sacks) also enjoying strong campaigns |
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12-31-14 | Ole Miss v. TCU -3.5 | 3-42 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units At season's end, that Rebel defense ranked #1 in scoring, & 13th in total. And that unit had better be at its best, if it is to contain the seemingly unstoppable offense of the Frogs, which ranks 4th 2nd, & 13th in total, scoring, & passing, behind the devastating exploits of QB Boykin, who averages 310 passing yards per game, with 30 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions. But they also had a rushing game that topped 260 yards 4 times. Plus the 'Frogs' 2nd ranking in the all-important turn over ratio. Their only setback came at Baylor, when they saw a 58-37 lead in the 4th result in an amazing 61-58 loss (782-485 yard deficit). Tcu also ranks 11th 13th in scoring & rushing defense. |
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12-30-14 | Maryland v. Stanford -14 | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the Terrapins of Maryland, this marks their 2nd bowl in the 4-year tenure of Edsall, (31-20 loss to Marshall in last year's Military, with 14-0 deficit over final 12:05). Their venture into the Big10 has gone just about exactly as expected, save for upsets of 7-5 Iowa, & 6-6 Penn St (3 & 4 takeaways). They couldn't stay with the league powers, being blasted 52-24, 52-7, 37-15 in losses to Ohio State, Wisconsin, & Michigan State. And in their win over 3-9 Syracuse, they had 26-17 first down, 358-89 rushing yard deficits. When the dust settled, the Terps finished with the 112th rated offense in the land. QB Brown is a "do-everything" leader, and crucial WR Diggs is back. But those lopsided losses versus the power teams decide this one. |
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12-30-14 | Louisville v. Georgia -7 | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 20th-ranked Cardinals of Louisville, this is a season that "could have been", with their only missteps coming in a 4 turn over 23-21 loss to Virginia, a 6-point setback to Clemson, when they failed from the Tiger 2 in the waning seconds, & a 42-31 loss to Florida State, after leading 21-0 in the 2nd. The loss of super QB Bridgewater & 10 other starters left the Cards on the outside of any preseason rankings, but Gardner & Bonnafon have filled in nicely at QB, & that defense (7 new starters) has been pure quality, ranking 3rd, 18th, & 6th in run, scoring, & total, with Holliman tying NCAA season record with 14 interceptions. But Gardner is out, & Bonnafon ailing (knee). Louisville has won & covered 3 of its last 4 bowls, but collapse at Florida State, & fluid QB situation, swings this to 'Dawgs |
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12-30-14 | Notre Dame v. LSU -7.5 | 31-28 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This season, a 6-0 start had Notre Dame sitting at #5 in the polls, before that crushing (controversial) 31-27 loss to Florida State, despite a 470-323 yard edge, with the roof caving in as a result, with 0-4 SU and 0-5 ATS windups. An improbable turnaround, as Irish held their first 5 opponents to 12 points per game (#3 in the land), but their last 7 to 41.6 points per game, with no opponent held below 31 points, with topper a 49-14 rout at arch-rival Southern California, trailing 35-0 in the 2nd. QB Golson hasn't lived up to expectations, as 14 interceptions offset his 29 touchdown passes. The main plus for LSU, is of course, their defense, which has held 7 opponents to 17 points or less, ranking #3 in scoring and 8th in total. |
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12-29-14 | Texas v. Arkansas -6.5 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hogs have been pure money since week 3, covering 8 of their last 10, and in the process snapping a 17-game SEC losing streak, by shutting out both LSU and Ole Miss, holding the Bengals to an unheard of 123 yards, and the 2 to a combined 99 rushing yards, and their last 5 opponents to only 11 points per game, while Allen has a solid 18 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions. HC Bielema's troubles at Fayetteville represent quite a comedown from Wisconsin glory days, but he is finally on track |
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12-29-14 | Clemson +5 v. Oklahoma | 40-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tigers turned a 1-2 start, including an OT loss to Florida State, while holding the 'Noles to 13 rushing yards,into an 8-1 finale, with their only loss coming at absolutely smoking Georgia Tech, with super QB Watson leaving (knee injury), as backup Stoudt was a smooth 3-of-11 with 3 interceptions. And therein lies the key, as Clemson was superb with him under center, along with a defense which ranks 7th, 3rd, 7th, & 1st in run, pass, scoring & total, with only 2 of their final 10 opponents topping 88 rushing yards. Upset wins over Ohio State and LSU in their last 2 bowls, so Tigers won't be overwhelmed |
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12-29-14 | West Virginia v. Texas A&M +2.5 | 37-45 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mounties have been an enigma, dominating Baylor (454-318 yard edge while sacking Petty 4 times) but never paying off as a favorite, while ranking 120th in turn overs. The dog is on an 11-1-1 ATS run in West Virginia games. QB Trickett is their key (2,385 yards, 67%, 18 touchdowns with 10 interceptions), but he is a bit of a question (concussion in last game). WR White (1,318 yards) is always a threat. West Virginia's last 3 bowls: 7, 70, & 14 points; A&M: 33, 41, & 52 points. |
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12-28-14 | Carolina Panthers +3 v. Atlanta Falcons | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The winner here becomes just the 2nd team ever to make the playoffs with a losing record ('10 Seahawks & their 7-9 mark). The Falcons are a perfect 6-0 ATS in divison play of late, and have averaged 28 points per game in their last 5 games. Ryan keeps on doing it, another 322 passing yards (4,434 this year) in rout of the Saints (4-0 turn over edge). But the visitor is on a 6-1 ATS run in Falcon games, while the guest is 5-0 ATS in Panther division games in '14. And Carolina is 12-0 ATS in December versus an opponent off SU underdog win. |
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12-28-14 | Detroit Lions v. Green Bay Packers -7 | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Packers haven't lost at Lambeau all season. Their average victory margin there is 26.8 points. Green Bay's point differential is plus 128 on the year. The Lions' point differential is plus 49. Detroit has held 11 of its 15 opponents under 18 points. But it's way too much to ask the Lions' defense to shut down Rodgers, Eddie Lacy – who has 13 touchdowns in his last 12 games – Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and a Green Bay offensive line that is the team's best in 10 years. The Packers average 41.1 points at home. The Lions are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games on grass and 3-13 ATS in December |
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12-28-14 | St. Louis Rams v. Seattle Seahawks -11.5 | Top | 6-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week There are teams currenty playing up to their potential but nobody is on the level of the Seahawks. They are not only on 5-0 SU run (4-0-1 ATS), but total domination, holding those 5 opponents to 6.6 points per game along with a franchise record of 596 yards in annihilation of one of the better defenses in the league ('Zona). Wilson: 339 passing yards (17 yards per pass); Lynch: 113 rushing yards (11.3 yards per rush). The Rams are -27½ points ATS last 2 weeks, and will pay the price for earlier 28-26 upset. |
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12-28-14 | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 v. Tennessee Titans | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Worst showing in 2½ years for the Colts, in meaningless 42-7 (28-0 at half) loss to the Cowboys, with a 127-1 rushing yard deficit. And Luck had no touchdowns passes with interceptions butdoes have 38 touchdowns with 16 interceptions on the year. Last weeks game further extended Indy's road futility, as it has allowed 33.3 points per game in 6 of its last 7 road games. However, that only serves to push the Colts to a solid finale, such as last years 30-10 regular season rout of Jacksonville. And what better team to set that scenario against than the Titans, who have dropped 9 straight, and are on a 3-18 ATS run. Pagano is 14-2 ATS in division play, and 17-4 ATS versus |
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12-28-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Baltimore Ravens -13 | 10-20 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Now or never for the Ravens, who also need help from the Chiefs (vs Chargers). Allowed only 1 touchdown in 25-13 loss to the Texans (6 FGs), but Flacco threw 3 picks, after just 1 in his previous 5 games, & that Baltimore running game has come from 183, to 93, to 35 in the last 3 weeks. But the Browns are approaching hapless status, with an unbelievable 51-13 first down deficit in their last 2 games (751-335 yard shortage, as well). So four straight losses for Cleveland, with just 2 offensive touchdowns in their last 3 games, 1 of which came on an 81-yd pass. |
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12-28-14 | New Orleans Saints -3.5 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 23-20 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - If the Saints have any pride left, they will have little trouble taking out their frustrations on the Bucs, who are in just their latest debacle, namely a 6 first downs and16 rushing yard effort versus the Packers, along with a 431-109 yard deficit. They have a 2-13 SU record, while failing to top 17 points in 15 of their last 18 contests. Sure, Smith is 9-1 ATS with revenge off a double digit SU loss, but the visitor has covered the last 8 games involving New Orleans. Brees has 32 touchdowns and 14 interceptions for the season with 4,580 yards, so ability to take this, with some to spare. |
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12-27-14 | Nebraska v. USC -7 | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Trojans average 35.1 points as standout quarterback Cody Kessler is in the midst of an outstanding season, passing for 3,505 yards and 36 touchdowns against four interceptions. Running back Javorius “Buck” Allen has 1,337 yards – topping 100 yards eight times – and big-play receiver Nelson Agholor has 97 receptions for 1,223 yards and 11 touchdowns. USC gives up 23.8 points per game and the star defenders include defensive end Leonard Williams (six sacks), inside linebacker Hayes Pullard (team-leading 87 tackles) and outside linebacker Su’a Cravens (team-best 16 tackles for losses). |
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12-27-14 | Penn State v. Boston College -3 | 31-30 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Running back John Hilliman proved to be an effective replacement for 2013 Heisman Trophy finalist Andre Williams, setting the Eagles’ freshman record for rushing attempts (185) while finishing the regular season tied for second in the conference with 12 rushing touchdowns. With Hilliman and Murphy (170 carries) sharing the workload fairly evenly, the Eagles are one of three teams in the nation that rank in the top 15 in rushing offense (14th) and rushing defense. BC outrushed the opposition 2,115-284 in its seven victories this season, holding all seven teams to fewer than 100 yards on the ground and three to fewer than 20. |
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12-27-14 | Miami (Fla) -3.5 v. South Carolina | 21-24 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Many would be surprised to learn that Miami has not won a bowl game since 2006, losing its last four postseason contests, including a 36-9 trouncing at the hands of Louisville in last year's Russell Athletic Bowl. The Hurricanes, who have averaged 13.5 points in their last six bowl appearances, need Johnson to return to the form that saw him reach 100 rushing yards in six straight games after the star junior posted his two worst games - 88 and 89 yards - in the Hurricanes' final two contests. “It needs to feel like a one-game season, if you will," said Hurricanes coach Al Golden, who won't have the services of senior tight end Clive Walford (knee). "We have all the vets who we’re trying to get healed up and we want to send them off winners. And then you have like 97 guys that are coming back and they know what this means in terms of our future." |
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12-27-14 | Duke v. Arizona State -7 | 31-36 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Sun Devils average 37 points per game, sparked by Foster’s 1,002 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, and Strong – who ranks 12th nationally with 10 receiving touchdowns and 17th with 1,062 receiving yards. Quarterback Taylor Kelly passed for 1,874 yards and 20 scores. The Sun Devils feature an opportunistic defense that is sixth in the country in tackles for loss and defensive touchdowns, highlighted by defensive back Damarious Randall (third in the Pac-12 in interceptions and fifth in tackles). |
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12-27-14 | Virginia Tech +2.5 v. Cincinnati | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hokies allowed only 42 points combined in the last three games and senior rover back Kyshoen Jarrett has played a big part for an improved defense with a team-high 86 tackles and three interceptions. Quarterback Michael Brewer threw 11 interceptions over the first six games of the campaign and three in the final six while tossing six TD passes in the last four. J.C. Coleman totaled 311 yards rushing the last three contests and Isaiah Ford (53 receptions, 665 yards, six TDs) is Brewer’s top target. |
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12-26-14 | North Carolina State v. Central Florida -2.5 | 34-27 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knights opened with losses to Penn State and Missouri before winning five in a row, including a 31-24 overtime victory over BYU. While the defense has been a strength all season, the offense struggled early before averaging 33 points during a four-game winning streak to close the regular season. Quarterback Justin Holman has thrown 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions while Perriman has caught a TD pass in seven straight games. |
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12-26-14 | Rutgers v. North Carolina -3 | 40-21 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Williams takes care of both the rushing and the passing for the Tar Heels, leading the team with 20 passing TDs and 12 rushing scores. Williams scored at least one rushing TD in six straight games before the debacle against N.C. State and totaled eight TDs in the two previous games. The junior star left the finale with a leg injury but x-rays came back negative and he was moving around under his power later in the game and is expected to play in the bowl game. |
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12-26-14 | Illinois v. Louisiana Tech -6 | 18-35 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Although the Bulldogs committed the second-most giveaways in their conference (25), they made up for it by forcing the most takeaways in the country (40), which led to a FBS-high 164 points off turnovers. Louisiana Tech recorded at least three takeaways in each of its final five regular-seasons contests and has collected multiple turnovers in all but one of its last 15 games dating back to last season. Some of the chaos the Bulldogs created on defense can be attributed to former Illini defensive end Houston Bates, who led the team with 12 quarterback hurries and earned a second-team all-conference nod. |
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12-24-14 | Fresno State v. Rice -2 | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Owls are heading to a bowl game for a third straight season for the first time in program history, although last year's 44-7 loss to Mississippi State in the Liberty Bowl was a one-sided affair. Coach David Bailiff's team is 7-0 when holding its opponent to 23 points or fewer. Junior quarterback Driphus Jackson set career highs against Louisiana Tech for completions (25), attempts (40), yards (337), touchdowns (four) and interceptions (three). |
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12-24-14 | Central Michigan v. Western Kentucky -3.5 | 48-49 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hilltoppers shattered 42 team and individual offensive records, many of which fell thanks to quarterback Brandon Doughty, who leads all FBS quarterbacks with 4,344 passing yards and 44 touchdowns. Doughty picked apart Marshall for 491 yards and a conference-record eight TDs, which allowed him to move into a four-way tie for 16th place in FBS history for the most passing scores in a single season. Western Kentucky also boasts a solid ground game led by Leon Allen, who ran for 650 of his 1,490 yards over the last three games – including a school-record 345-yard effort in a Nov. 15 win versus Army. |
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12-23-14 | Navy v. San Diego State -3 | 17-16 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Aztecs rank fourth in the Mountain West in rushing defense (145.6), and they’re just as tough against the pass, with cornerbacks J.J. Whittaker and Damontae Kazee both named to the All-Mountain West Second Team. Linebacker Calvin Munson has 78 tackles, 10.5 tackles-for-loss, four sacks, four interceptions and two forced fumbles for the Aztecs, who were 6-0 at Qualcomm Stadium this season. Quarterback Quinn Kaehler often takes a back seat to Pumphrey and the Aztecs’ talented offensive line, which is led by the 6-5, 310-pound Terry Poole. |
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12-23-14 | Northern Illinois +9.5 v. Marshall | 23-52 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hare passed for two touchdowns and ran for another against Bowling Green, while Stingily had 116 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Hare has 17 TDs against only two interceptions, with Da'Ron Brown (64 catches, 1,002 yards, six TDs) being his primary target. Northern Illinois, the only team in the country with at least 11 victories in each of the last five seasons. |
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12-22-14 | BYU +2 v. Memphis | 48-55 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cougars are participating in their 10th straight bowl game and are coming in hot after Stewart’s 433-yard, five-TD performance in a win at California. BYU started the season with a dominant rushing attack led by Hill, whose dual-threat abilities resulted in 975 passing yards and 460 on the ground in his first four games, but had to rebuild around a more traditional pocket passer in Stewart. The Cougars also picked things up on the other side of the ball, limiting their last four opponents to an average of 16.3 points after surrendering 40.8 during the mid-season skid. |
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12-21-14 | Seattle Seahawks -7 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 35-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week Seattle looks to be near full speed now. They need two wins for the division title, and possibly home field throughout the playoffs. Their defense is near its apex, allowing just 27 points in their last 4 games. That's 6.75 points per game versus Arizona, San Francisco, Philadelphia, and San Francisco. They have given up just 9 and 14 first downs in the last 2 weeks. The Cardinals are still atop the NFC West, but are averaging only 13 poins per game in their last 5 games, are going it without Stanton, and have managed just 2 touchdowns in their last 19 quarters. |
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12-21-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Dallas Cowboys -3 | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It didn't take long for the Cpwboys to get back in the groove, following their Thanksgiving Day home rout loss to the Eagles, posting 79 points in their 2 games since, both on the road. Romo had 3 touchdowns with 0 interceptions in that thriller versus Philladelphia, and now had 28 touchdowns with 8 interceptions on the season. Dallas is in the driver seat for now, but obviously, can't afford a letup. The #1 offense of the Colts will put that somewhat iffy defense of the Cowboys (27+ points in 5 of their last 6) to the test, but Indy is allowing 31.6 points per game in 5 of their last 6 road games. |
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12-21-14 | Kansas City Chiefs +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 12-20 | Loss | -117 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chiefs' road record under Andy Reid stands at 11-4 ATS. The Chiefs are battle-tested having played numerous powerful opponents, including the Broncos twice, Patriots, Seahawks, 49ers and Cardinals. Aside from the Colts, the Steelers haven't faced any non-division foes with a winning record In addition, The dog is 6-1 ATS in Pitt games (+83 points), and the Chiefs' last 5 road games have been decided by 5, 3, 4, 4, 3 points SU. |
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12-21-14 | Minnesota Vikings v. Miami Dolphins -5.5 | 35-37 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dolphins are suddenly searching for an offense (16, 13, 13 points in their last 3 games), coming from 277 rushing yards versus the Jets to just 63 and 76 the past 2 weeks. However, they rank 6th in total defense, and had only an 11-yard deficit in last week's rout loss. The Vikings have covered 4 straight (+25½ points), and 6-of-7, but are in off seeing a 14-0 lead over Detroit end in a 16-14 loss, not managing a point over the final 40:05. But Miami has to have this. |
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12-21-14 | Detroit Lions -8 v. Chicago Bears | 20-14 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nice comeback win for the Lions versus Minnesota, after trailing 14-0, holding the Vikings without a point over the final 40:01. Detroit has the #2 ranked defense and has held 10 of its 14 opponents under 18 points so far and the favorite is on a 5-1 ATS run. For the Lions, this is the 2nd of 3 division games, to wind up the regular season, and they need them all, if they are to take the NFC North, or at least secure a Wild Card spot. This is a revenge setup for the Bears, but the favorite is on a 6-0 ATS run in Chicago games |
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12-20-14 | South Alabama v. Bowling Green +3 | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Falcons opened the season by allowing 569 passing yards in a 59-31 loss to Western Kentucky, but first-year coach Dino Babers’ squad responded by winning five of its next six games. Bowling Green entered the MAC title game against Northern Illinois averaging 30.8 points, but the Falcons were held to 287 yards and committed four turnovers in the 34-point loss. Freshman wide receiver Roger Lewis (956 yards) and running back Travis Greene (10 TDs) lead the Falcons’ fast-paced offense. |
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12-20-14 | San Diego Chargers +1 v. San Francisco 49ers | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 49ers come into this one off of three straight losses, while being held below 18 points in 7 of their' last 8 games (a 162-110 point deficit in those 8). In last week's loss to the Seahawks, they managed a mere 67 yards in the 2nd half, and Kaepernick was sacked 6 times. They lost their last home game by 17 points ATS. Chargers just a game behind in the WildCard chase, despite dropping 2 straight. They held the potent Broncos to a single touchdown. |
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