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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-18-16 | Falcons +4.5 v. Raiders | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Improved Raiders pulled 35-34 upset of the Saints due to Carr TD pass and Carr 2-point conversion pass in final 0:47 last week. So 319 passing yards but just 1 TD pass - the big one. The underdog is now 9-5 ATS in Oakland games (2-4 LA), which coincides with fact that the Raiders were installed as a favorite 4 times last year, covering just once, by 2 points. Atlanta's loss to Tampa moved the success of the underdog to 11-2 in Falcon contests of late. Ryan LW had 334 passing yards so he still can move the ball, with Atlanta once again in the fray. OT wouldn't surprise me in this one. |
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09-18-16 | 49ers v. Panthers -13 | 27-46 | Win | 100 | 88 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units If the Panthers don't come roaring back following their tough loss to the Broncos, I will be surprised. Just 3 points for Carolina in the 2nd half of their loss. Sure, this is a Denver/Minny sandwich for the Panthers, but note that last years only regular season loss was followed with a 38-10 crushing of the Bucs. Carolina is 6-1 ATS hosting the Niners, and are on a 15-8-1 ATS run, with 7 of those 8 losses by |
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09-18-16 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 88 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Second of back-to-back brutal road games to start the season for Dolphins, nearly beating the Seahawks, before losing 12-10 in the final 0:31, although that one wasn't as tight as actual margin, with Miami on the short end of 21-11 first down and 352-214 yard margins. Also a 254-173 point deficit for the Fish in their last 10 games, as well as a 5-16 ATS slide. The Pats keep on doing it. Garoppolo for Brady (264 passing yards with 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, with no Gronk, along with 3 starting linemen. Patriots are 13-1 ATS off a SU non-division dog win. This seems to be a reasonable spread |
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09-17-16 | Troy v. Southern Miss -10.5 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -104 | 103 h 29 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Mismatch of the Week Trojans showed their mettle in tight loss to Clemson (29-point cover, only 28-yard deficit). But Eagles have an 83-0 point edge in their L6 quarters, and are 10-2 ATS. QB Mullens, RB Smith, etc, etc |
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09-17-16 | UL-Monroe v. Georgia Southern -24.5 | 21-23 | Loss | -115 | 102 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I continue to ride this meal ticket. Top rushing team the L2 years, and 2nd (Air Force) this year. La-Monroe licking its wounds off 59-17 loss to Okies, and now a 788-329 point deficit their L22 lined game. Georgia Southern again. |
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09-17-16 | Oregon +3.5 v. Nebraska | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 99 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nebraska shaking dust from wrenching '15 campaign, with 2 early cakers, although just 4 and 9 point covers, with 28-0 windup versus Wyoming. Armstrong: another 377 passing yards. Ducks as dogs? Well, try 5-0 in that role since '11. Check Prukop and Freeman: 331 passing yards and 209 rushing yards. Take the points. |
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09-17-16 | Alabama -10 v. Ole Miss | Top | 48-43 | Loss | -106 | 99 h 27 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Game of the Week Oh, how Alabama wants this one, after 2 straight losses to Mississippi, with last years 5 turn overs the key. Kelly bombed 'Tide for 3 long TD passes last year, but Ole Miss was manhandled in 2nd half by Florida State. Visitor is 10-1 ATS in Alabama games, so site not a problem. Revenge rears its head here. |
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09-17-16 | San Diego State -10.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 99 h 24 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Aztecs lost cover versus Cal in final 0:56, despite another splendid showing by Pumphrey who had 281 rushing yards (#1 rusher in land). Now +168 points ATS last 11 lined games, with a 135-38 point edge in L3 road games. NIU has 177-71 point deficit their L4 games, as well as a 536-290 rushing yard deficit this year. |
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09-17-16 | Florida State v. Louisville +2.5 | 20-63 | Win | 100 | 96 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units An 84-14 point edge in Florida State's last 6 quarters. Francois: 69%, with 5 TD's and 1 interception, with Cook the assassin. Florida State covered its last road game by 22½ points. But Cards in off ACC record 845 yards, with amazing 610 from Jackson (411 passing yards, 199 rushing yards). And Louisviille led its opener 56-0 at half. A classic. |
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09-11-16 | Patriots +6 v. Cardinals | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 97 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These 2 squads were 1 win away from meeting in SuperBowl 50. Missed extra point put Pats behind "8 ball" the entire game in 20-18 loss to Denver, while Cards were crushed, 49-15 in seven turn over effort versus the Panthers. No Brady for Pats until game #5, so Garoppolo gets the call, opening versus the league's 7th-ranked defense. However, remember the fine job that Cassel did, in filling in for Tom in '08, as Belichick simply adjusts to the situation. This one should go to the wire, so take the points. |
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09-11-16 | Browns v. Eagles -4 | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 89 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Browns welcome back Hue Jackson to the head coaching but they need all the help they can get, as they're on 1-10 SU & 2-8 ATS runs. How about a 275-137 point deficit in their last 10 games (-68 points ATS), while topping 13 points in just 3 of those games. RG3 has taken a lot of hits from detractors, but he was a true force when healthy. Eagles have said goodbye to Kelly, finishing the preseason unscathed, with Wentz getting the QB call. Eagle "D" a disaster last year, but should flex their muscles in opener. |
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09-11-16 | Chargers +7.5 v. Chiefs | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 89 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chiefs are again figured among sure-fire playoff contenders, as well they should be, as Kansas City has made the postseason in 2-of-3 years, under Reid (11-5 during both the '13 & '15 regular seasons). But remember last year, when they opened at 1-5, both SU & ATS, before taking their next 11 on the field. Thus a solid TD favorite versus an underrated division opponent, San Diego, which has held the Chiefs to10 &19 points in their last 2 trips to Kansas City. The visitor is a profitable play in this one, as the road team is 18-4 & 34-9 ATS in Charger & Chief games respectively |
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09-11-16 | Vikings -2.5 v. Titans | 25-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Loss of Bridgewater could take more than a year (torn ACL & dislocated knee). Minnesota has a bolstered offensive line, which should really help Peterson. Minnesota is on ATS runs of 22-5 overall, 14-3 last season, and an awesome 11-2 on the road. Titans calling on Mularkey as possible savior, following 3-13 campaign, which featured an 0-6-1 ATS windup, while scoring only 11.3 poinst per game in 10-of-last-12 games. |
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09-10-16 | Texas Tech +3 v. Arizona State | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -106 | 99 h 28 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Inter-Conference Game of the Week Both teams are off to routs of horrible teams, with the Raiders in their usual passing display with 633 passing yards (Mahomes had 483 yards with 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. The Sun Devils in 34-10 2nd half edge for their wipe out, but return only 4 offensive starters. The did get 180 passing yards and 89 rushing yards from Wilkins, but they are allowing 369 passing yards. Texas Tech can't wait for this one. |
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09-10-16 | Virginia Tech +11.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 34 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Vols were tied for 8th in the land in the "Polls" column, after winding up 2015 with a 35 points per game average, and 9 returning offensive starters. But they needed a 67-yard Dobbs TD pass to extend Appalachian State into OT (20-13 win), with only 127 rushing yards. Beamer-less Tech overcame 4 lost fumbles for rout of Liberty, allowing just 1 offensive TD. Hokies as a double digit dog is definitely the play. |
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09-10-16 | BYU +3.5 v. Utah | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 96 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units BYU has a score to settle after last years bowl meeting and have the weapons to do it (213-115 rushing yard edge at Arizona). They were +40½ points ATS in first 3 games last year. Only 19 first downs for Utah versus Southern Utah, but that defense is solid, allowing just 158 yards. However, Utah is -29 points ATS last 7 games. |
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09-10-16 | Georgia Southern -13 v. South Alabama | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 97 h 36 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week It was a huge comeback win for Jags at Mississippi State last week, overcoming a 20-7 deficit in the 4th, behind QB Davis and RB Thomas. But they had a 239-94 rushing yard deficit in the game. That in itself spells big trouble versus and unstoppable Georgia Southern running game that has been #1 in the nation the L2 years. Last week in their opener they had 420 rushing yards along with 34 first downs. |
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09-10-16 | Florida Atlantic v. Miami (Fla) -24 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 95 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Yes, I know that the road team is 11-2 ATS in FAU games, as well as 10-4 ATS in Miami contests. But the University of Miami has 9 returning offensive starters, and new head coach Richt (from Georgia). Try 42 3rd quarter points in rout of Florida A&M. Owls barely got past Southern Illinois, allowing 26 first downs and 530 yards. |
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09-10-16 | Ohio +3 v. Kansas | 37-21 | Win | 100 | 91 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units KU in off snapping 15-game losing streak, doing it in style 55-6 (2 TDs in every quarter) vs RIU (399-49 passing yard edge). But Kansas gave up >40 points 8 times last year. Ohio clicked on 75-yard TD pass in final 0:38 for 38-35 lead versus Texas State, only to lose 56-54 in 3rd OT (missed 2-point try). A must regroup against a team that has only won 1 game in their last 16. |
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09-08-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +3 | 20-21 | Win | 107 | 25 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a way to start the season with the last Super Bowl rematch on the 1st Thursday of season is unheard of. No more Manning, so untested Siemian gets the call versus this very good team, which has had to live with that loss for 7 months. In their last meeting the Bronco "D" forced 4 TOs, and had 7 sacks of Cam, 1 defensive TD and another score on 4-yard drive. So an automatic Panther call, right?, as they're on 15-7 ATS run, and at 32.5 points per game over their L10 games. But that Denver "D" seems made to contain this machine. Grab the defending champs as home dogs . |
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09-03-16 | Clemson -7 v. Auburn | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -111 | 118 h 59 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week A premier matchup the first week of the NCAAF season, despite Eagles failing to get a single preseason vote, while Clemson is once again figured as one of the Top 2 teams in the nation. As Watson is under center for Clemson, there is only 1 way to go. Now +115 points ATS in last 15 games, and on 27-4 SU run. Auburn still respectable, but outgained only 4 opponents last year |
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09-03-16 | Southern Miss +7 v. Kentucky | Top | 44-35 | Win | 100 | 116 h 13 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week Can the hapless 'Cats finally turn the corner? Have been whipping boys since '10, but their faithful have hopes of a resurgence, behind 9 returning offensive starters, although that defense is, as always, cause for concern. I rode the Eagles, with much success, last year, including a 167-44 point edge in their L3 regular season road games. Chalk inviting 9-0 in UK games, but not here |
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09-03-16 | North Carolina v. Georgia -2.5 | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 114 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Gone from the Bulldog sideline in former HC Richt, who was top man for 15 years. Replaced by 'Bama DC Smart, who should extend traditionally strong 'Dawg Defense. Lambert returns at QB (63%), along with 7 other offensive starters. Tar Heels (+98 points ATS L11 games) without all-around talents of QB Williams, but Trubisky able replacement |
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09-03-16 | Western Michigan +5.5 v. Northwestern | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 109 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units 'Cats an interesting outfit, with just 2 winning seasons over last 5 years, but both featured 10-3 marks. Also interesting is in '15, their 3 losses came by combined 123-16 score. Sort of like living on borrowed time, and note the dog at 11-5 ATS in NW contests. Broncs return proficient QB Terrell (#7 in nation), and enough starters for a tight game |
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09-03-16 | Boise State -20 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 109 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Quite a comedown for Broncos, despite last year's 9-4 mark, as they were -107½ points ATS in L6 regular season games, before routs in final 2 outings (38½ bowl cover). UL-La lost L2 home games by 46 points ATS, and came from 8-1 line skein to current 2-7-1 ATS mark. No offense or defense to compete |
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09-02-16 | Army +16 v. Temple | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 91 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Right, Cadets have been whipping boys for past 2 decades with last winning season coming in '96. Enter this year off 2-10 campaign, so more of the same obviously expected. But note that no less than 7 of last year's losses came by |
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02-07-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +5.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 29 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Denver is a perfect 5-0 against the spread as an underdog, winning four of those games straight-up beating the Chiefs, Packers and Patriots twice. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last eight Super Bowls grading last year’s Seahawks-Patriots matchup as a pick. This game isn’t likely to be pretty. They’ve won an NFL-record 11 regular-season and postseason games by seven points or fewer. Manning has gone from all-time great to being just a glorified game manager. But run-oriented Denver coach Gary Kubiak was astute enough to grasp that concept. Pride trumps ego. Manning wants to go out a winner in what sure looks to be his final rodeo. He’s smart enough to make it work by setting up his defense – not the other way around. That’s the Broncos’ winning formula. |
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01-24-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers -3 | 15-49 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite a 16-1 record, the likely MVP in Cam Newton, the best cornerback in football, Josh Norman, and six others who were selected either first or second team Pro Bowl, the Panthers draw no respect. Maybe the oddsmaker and marketplace got spooked by the Panthers only beating Seattle, 31-24, after leading 31-0 at halftime this past Sunday. But the Panthers are better than a field goal against the Cardinals at Bank of America Stadium where they have won 12 in a row. It should be kept in mind that the Panthers’ second-half goal against the Seahawks was running time off the clock rather than running up a score. It was the second time in two meetings the Panthers defeated the Seahawks, a team that destroyed the Cardinals, 30-6, at Arizona just three weeks ago. |
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01-24-16 | Patriots -3 v. Broncos | 18-20 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Broncos were 5-4 SU and ATS in Manning’s nine starts. Manning failed to produce any old magic against the Steelers either making his first start since Nov. 15 with a quarterback rating of 74.4. Manning struggled to put up a touchdown against the Steelers until capitalizing on a late fumble in Denver’s 23-16 victory. Even in his prime, Manning has a terrible playoff track record, including a 1-5 postseason record in sub-40 degree temperature, including a 24-13 home playoff loss to the Colts last season when he was in much better physical condition. The Patriots had their key linebackers, Dont’a Hightower (knee), Jamie Collins (back) and Jerod Mayo (shoulder) banged up against the Chiefs. So keep an eye on their status, but Bill Belichick has solid replacements and always has versatile defenders. The Broncos are forced to be a run-first team, although lacking a star runner. So they are not difficult to defend. New England ranks ninth in run defense. Denver is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven playoff games. |
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01-17-16 | Steelers v. Broncos -7.5 | 16-23 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These 2 are no strangers when it comes to the post-season. They've battled in '77, '78, '84, '89, '97, '05, & '11. QBs in those games were Morton, Bradshaw, Elway, Plummer, Kordell Stewart, Tebow, Manning, Big Ben. And only 2 of those 7 came in Pittsburgh. So more of the same here, with rested Broncos still smarting from blowing a 27-13 to Pittsburgh 3 weeks ago, failing to contain Roethlisberger, who threw for 380 yards, with Brown the recipient of 16 catches for 189 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Pittsburgh is here, due to gift field goal following 2 personal foul calls on Cincinnati. But Ben, Brown, and running back Williams are all hurting. Without their 328 passing yards per game QB at 100%, the Steelers are up against it. |
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01-17-16 | Seahawks +2.5 v. Panthers | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This was Newton’s finest season of his five-year NFL career. He’s facing an elite disciplined stop unit, though, that knows him well. While the Seahawks still might be without enigmatic Marshawn Lynch, Carolina has been without its best running back, Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers’ defense has shown signs of leakage surrendering 35 points to the Giants in Week 15 and and 38 to to New Orleans in Week 13. The Panthers rate among the top defenses in the major categories, but have surrendered 23 or more points in seven of their 15 victories. Wilson can exploit a Panthers secondary whose two starting cornerbacks weren’t even on the roster on Thanksgiving. Carolina had to coax past-his-prime Cortland Finnegan out of retirement and sign Robert McClain to replace veteran Charles Tillman – one of the NFL’s all-time best at coming up with takeaways – and Bene’ Benwikere. Both suffered season-ending injuries. Seattle’s defense has no holes. Wilson is a proven big-game commodity. The Seahawks know how to win big road games. |
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01-16-16 | Packers v. Cardinals -7 | 20-26 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals are bolstered by the aggressive play-calling of Bruce Arians, unlike the Packers who have been stymied by questionable play-calling from their coaching staff. Mike McCarthy is a terrible underdog coach. Green Bay is 4-11-1 ATS the past 16 times getting points. Rodgers is going to have to keep pace with Palmer riding a passing game that hasn’t clicked much of the season, with slow receivers who can’t create individual matchups they can win and with a rushing attack that has been disappointing nearly the entire season. The Redskins were just the right opponent for Green Bay. The Cardinals are exactly the wrong opponent for the Packers. |
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01-16-16 | Chiefs +5 v. Patriots | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kansas City is likely to be without its best wide receiver as Jeremy Maclin suffered an ankle injury in the Chiefs’ dominant 30-0 victory against Houston this past Saturday. The Chiefs are far from dynamic on offense. But Alex Smith rarely beats himself, the Chiefs have running back depth and Travis Kelce is a top tight end. The Patriots gave up an average of 136.5 yards rushing in losses to the Dolphins, Jets, Eagles and Broncos. The Patriots could be missing one of their best defensive players in linebacker Dont’a Hightower, who sat out the Dolphins game because of a lingering knee injury. The Patriots don’t have the firepower anymore to cover this spread given their injuries. The Patriots are just a mediocre 5-5 ATS since 2009 hosting playoff games winning by more than four points only four of the 10 times |
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01-11-16 | Alabama -6.5 v. Clemson | 45-40 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units At season's end Alabama ranked 1st, 16th, 3rd, 4th, and 2nd in rushing, passing, scoring, passing efficiency, and total defense. And, as I wrote, previously, Saban has stated that this stop unit is his best ever, which is the ultimate compliment, as the 'Tide is simply the standard in that category. This year, their only setback came in 43-37 loss to Ole Miss, with Alabama on the wrong end of a 5-0 turnover margin. Heisman-winning Henry sits at a punishing 2,061 rushing yards (25 touchdowns), but in their 38-0 rout of #3 Michigan State, it was not only Alabama's defense that again dominated, but it marked the emergence of QB Coker: 25-of-30, 286 yards, 2 touchdown. The key, of course, is Alabama's ability to cope with Clemson's spread offense, led by Watson, the quintessential movable QB. However, two other quarterbacks with good wheels -- Tennessee’s Joshua Dobbs and Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott – were frustrated by Alabama, mustering only 33 net rushing yards between them. |
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01-10-16 | Seahawks -3.5 v. Vikings | 10-9 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Vikings reaped quite a reward for their upset of the Packers, namely hosting the best team in the NFL. Minnesota is just superb, with its current 21-5 ATS run, 22-5 ATS versus non-division opponents. But Peterson and team will find the going a bit tougher versus the Seahawks, who hold a 224-98 point edge in their last 7 games, with Wilson at 24 touchdowns and only 1 interception over that span, as well as 1,038-401 rushing yard advantage. Teddy and Co are up against it in this one, even with the weather projected to be well below zero. |
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01-09-16 | Chiefs -3 v. Texans | 30-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These 2 have had similar seasons, with the Texans opening at 2-5, before finishing with a 7-2 mark, thanks mainly to Watt-led defense, which finished 3rd in the NFL. And they held 7 of their final 9 opponents to 8.1 points per game. And note a 64-12 point edge in their last 2 games (Tennessee and Jacksonville). Just their 3rd playoff game ever, and 1st since '12. Chiefs wound up with 10-0 SU run, on heels of 5-game slide (never been done before). Visitor is 33-9 ATS in KC tilts, & the chalk is 22-11 ATS in Houston games. The Texans don’t have enough talent and a decent enough quarterback to beat the hottest team in football. . |
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01-03-16 | Vikings +3 v. Packers | 20-13 | Win | 105 | 33 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is for the NFC North crown, with the Packers already assured of a playoff spot. Green Bay suddenly reeling, as 753-471 yard deficit over the past 2 weeks aptly demonstrates. Check Rodgers being sacked 8 times in wipeout loss to Arizona. But he is still brilliant 30 touchdowns wih 7 interceptions for the year and 60.4%. This is a revenge shot for Minnesota, who were taken to the woodshed in earlier 30-13 loss, despite a 342-320 yard edge. Minnesota is a splendid 20-5 ATS currently, and 10-2 ATS away. Zimmer 9-1 ATS as an underdog versus an opponent with an over .500 record. |
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01-03-16 | Chargers +10 v. Broncos | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The fortunes of the Broncos has changed a bit, as their seemingly smooth waltz into the playoffs has suddenly swerved, with onrushing Chiefs and Jets, along with blowing that 27-10 lead at Pittsburgh, as Osweiler's 2nd half performance was polar opposite of his opening half. The dog is 8-2 ATS when Denver is host, which meshes nicely with the fact that the visitor is on 11-1and 17-4 ATS runs in San Diego games. Rivers: 4,504 passying yards and 66.5%, but no rushing offense. Chargers are 7-1 ATS when visiting Denver. |
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01-03-16 | Raiders +7.5 v. Chiefs | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nine straight wins for the Chiefs, who need a win here, for playoff host role. Got by Cleveland last week, despite a 368-258 yard deficit (232-136 overland shortage). So a 7-2 ATS run (+103 points ATS), but staring at revenge here, as they were outgained by 129 yards in earlier 34-20 win over the Raiders. And note the visitor on a 32-9 ATS run in Kansas City games. Oakland: shot at 8-8 season, with Carr now at 31 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. The division visitor 5-0 ATS in Chief games this year and 5-0 ATS in Raider games as well. |
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01-03-16 | Jets -2.5 v. Bills | 17-22 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Untis You think the Bills' fans might miss Doug Marrone a bit? Need this for a non-losing campaign, which isn't exactly what Ryan promised. Another 236 rushing yards for the league's top overland squad, and Taylor now with 20 touchdowns and 6 interceptions (64%). But the won/loss column a disappointment. A win in this, and the Jets secure a Wild Card slot. Five straight wins, with a 626-302 rushing yard edge, and Fitzpatrick with 13 touchdowns and only 1 interception. New York is 7-1 ATS in division play, although its last 2 road games have been decided by ½ & 0 points ATS. Also the Jets are 8-0 ATS in December off a SU underdog win, versus an opponent off a home game. And the Bills are 1-6 ATS in 2nd of 2 home games |
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01-03-16 | Redskins +4 v. Cowboys | 34-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units From worst to first for the Redskins, who have clinched the NFC East with 3 straight wins, coupled with demise of the rest of this sorry division. Check Washinton QB Cousins with 8 touchdowns and no inteceptions the past 2 weeks. That one pushed the underdog edge to 5-0 ATS (+38 points) in Washington games. The Cowboys are 1-10 SU without Romo, having been held below 20 points in their last 5 games. Washington is 12-2 ATS in December, off a pair of SU/ATS wins, and 6-1 ATS off 3 covers, as well as 7-0 ATS on the road off a double digit division cover |
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01-02-16 | West Virginia v. Arizona State | 43-42 | Win | 100 | 31 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mounties make it 13 bowls in 14 seasons, although failing to top the 7-win plateau since 2011, when they posted the last of 4 consecutive double-digit win campaigns. A year ago, they dropped 4 of their last 5 games (1 cover), including their 45-37 Liberty Bowl loss to Texas A&M. This season was marked by a suicidal Oct schedule that produced 44-24, 33-26 (OT), 62-38, and 40-10 losses to Oklahoma, Oklahom State, Baylor, and Tcu (murderers' row), which moved their record to 3-4, before a 4-1 windup, which, but for a 97-yard kickoff return in final 2:07 at Kansas State, could have been 5-0. So a resume similar to Arizona State's. QB Howard was 3 touchdownd with 0 iterceptions and 346 passing yards in last years bowl loss. RB Small carries the load (1,447 rushing yards, 6.4 yards per rush, 9 touchdowns). The West Virginia Mountaineers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. 5-1 Over in their last six January games. 7-3 Over in their last 10 bowl games. |
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01-02-16 | TCU v. Oregon -7 | 47-41 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Ducks of Oregon were exposed early, with astounding 62-20 loss hosting Utah, and a 45-38 OT home loss to WashSt just 2 wks later, standing at 3-3, when they regrouped with 6-0 finish (5-1 ATS). QB Adams is no Mariotta, but although playing for much of the season with a broken finger, he sits at 2,446 yards, 64.6%, and 25 touhdowns with 6 interceptions. And RB Freeman ranks 4th in the nation. Both are dedicated, but more so the streaking and healthy Ducks, who seek to exorcise demons from last year's 42-20 title game loss to OhioSt. In additoin Oregon is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games on grass. |
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01-02-16 | Kansas State v. Arkansas -12.5 | Top | 23-45 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Bowl Game of the Day This years Kansas State team is not Snyder's most dominant edition, outplaying only 1-of-9 conference opponentss (0-12 Kansas). QB Hubener is just 9 touchdowns with 9 interceptions and 47.8%, and cannot ignore Kansas State's #109 and #101 offense an defense rankings. Also, a 226-139 point deficit in its L6 games, and 2-10 ATS bowl record. It's another matter for the Hogs, who've had stat edges in 9-of-12 games, and that includes bowl-bound Toledo, TexA&M, Tennessee, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Lsu. QB Allen (3,125 yards, 65.1%, 29 touchdowns with 7 interceptions) leads the SEC in touchdown passes, yards per attempt (9.08), and total QB rating (87.2). RB Collins ranks 16th in the land with 1,392 yards, 17 touchdowns. Thus, a balanced attack that was held in check just once. Guess who? Right, Alabama. And the Wildcats are no Crimson Tide. Obviously, I always respect Snyder in the dog role, but allowing 31+ points 7 times in an 8-game stretch this year hardly a hopeful sign. And UA (-7) took Texas, 31-7, in last year's Texas Bowl. |
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01-01-16 | Ole Miss -7.5 v. Oklahoma State | 48-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A year ago, Ole Miss climbed to the 3rd spot in the land thru 7 games, only to suffer back-to-back 3 and 4 point losses to Lsu & Auburn, and an eventual 9-4 record, and final ranking of #17, with a 42-3 loss to Tcu in the Peach Bowl. No Wallace at QB, but 16 starters, including brilliant WR Treadwell, who missed Rebs' final 4 games last year. But QB Kelly is a winner, earning his stripes in a shocking 43-37 upset of Alabama (5-0 turnover edge), with 340 passing yards and 3 touchdownd with 0 interceptions (67, 73, 24 yards). He ended the season at 3,740 yards, 65.2%, 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions; and Treadwell: 1,082 yards receiving (8 touchdowns). Oklahoma State had no rushing, and a 2-QB system that may be without Rudolph, its main cog: 3,591 passing yard, 62.6%, 21 touchdowns with 9 interceptions. No way to enter a bowl |
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01-01-16 | Iowa +6 v. Stanford | 16-45 | Loss | -107 | 30 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Hawkeyes of Iowa came within 0:27 seconds of a perfect season, losing to Michigan State in the Big Ten title game. Not a single pre-season vote, but only bowl-bound Pitt, Indiana, and Minnesota exceeded 20 points versus this #10 run, #15 scoring, and #20 total defense. Canzeri is their go-to RB: 976 yards, 5.5 yards per rush, 12 touchdowns, but he is an on-again, off-again player, who has been slowed by nagging injuries (?? here). And Beathard (2,570 yards, 61.4%, 15.4) is 2nd-team All-Big Ten QB. Iowa's Ferentz is 5-2 ATS in his last 7 bowls, while the Hawkeyes are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on grass. 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games following a loss. . Spot seems a bit heavy. Iowa! |
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01-01-16 | Florida v. Michigan -4 | Top | 7-41 | Win | 101 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year What a start Michigan made, opening at 5-1, with a 160-14 point edge when they entertained Michigan State, holding a 23-21 lead in the closing seconds only to botch a punt, which was returned for a touchdown after the clock ran out. But then 4 straight wins, before wipe out 42-13 finale loss Ohio State (369-57 rushing yard deficit). Improved, but vulnerable. Offense revolves around QB Rudock (2,739 yards, 64%, 17 touchdowns and 9 interceptions), as UM ranks 97th in rushing. But try nation's 4th-ranked defense though. Thus, the Gators, and their 109th ranked offense should definitely feel the heat. Florida has also welcomed new head coaching (McElwain from Colorado State), with a 10-3 log the result, although it has been the takeaway that has been the major contributor (4 in upset of OleMiss, 5 in rout of Georgia). In their SEC title match with Alabama (29-15 loss), the Gators were on the short end of 25-7, 233-15 rushing yard, 437-180 rushing yard margins (touchdowns on 85-yard punt return and 46-yard pass). At least Michigan can move it. In addition, Michigan is 5-1 ATS in their last six after an ATS loss. 5-1 ATS in their last six after a straight up loss. 9-3 ATS in their last 12 after giving up more than 200 yards on the ground. |
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01-01-16 | Tennessee -8 v. Northwestern | Top | 45-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Bowl Game of the Day Since 2004, the Vols have posted just 5 winning campaigns, including a pair of 7-6 years. That is, until this season, when they took full advantage of no less than 18 starters (10 offensively), although it hardly seemed the case, as they opened at 3-4, with tough losses to Alabama, Oklahoma, Florida, and Arkansas (combined 40-10), after leading or tied in the 4th quarter in each. However, note turning a 21-point deficit to Georgia, into a 38-31 win, along with a 5-game SU run to wind it all up, including that 53-point outburst versus a Vandy team which had allowed just 21 points per game in its first 11 games. QB Dobbs is their key, although he finished 68th in pass efficiency (2,125 yards, 60%, 15 touchdown and 5 interceptions). However, he led the SEC in QB rushing yards (9 touchdowns). |
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12-31-15 | Michigan State +10 v. Alabama | 0-38 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spartans of Michigan State, who have been in possession of 5 straight rock-ribbed defenses, ranking 6th, 4th, 2nd, and 8th in total defense, as well as 9th, 8th, 2nd, 1st versus the run ('11, '12, '13, '14), allowing 70 rushing yards per game in their last 4 bowls (Georgia, Tcu, Stanford, Baylor: 4-0 SU, ATS). This year was different, however, ranking low on defense, with an 0-6 ATS start, while allowing 21 points per game. But wins over Michigan and Ohio State, turned the season around, with that majestic 5 first down, 86 rushing yards, 46 passing yard defensive effort versus the Bucks. QB Cook is a brilliant 24 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions. The Crimson Tide have shown they are susceptible through the air, Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly threw for 341 yards and three scores in their only loss of the season. The Spartans will give the Crimson Tide similar problems in this game. Alabama took them 49-7 in 2010 Capital One Bowl, but double-digit spread here seems a bit excessive. |
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12-31-15 | Oklahoma -3.5 v. Clemson | Top | 17-37 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Bowl Game of the Day For the Sooners, high hopes abounded, as they got off to a 4-0 start, averaging 42 points per game, but were dashed in a dispirited 24-17 loss to eventual 5-7 Texas, including a 313-67 rushing yard deficit. However, that's when they took stock and streamed to their current 7-0 SU run (6-1 ATS), by an average score of 52-19. They are led by QB Mayfield (#2 in pass efficiency, 3,389 yards, 68.6%, 35 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions), RB Perine (1,291 yards, 6.1 yards per rush, with 15 touchdowns), and WR Shepard (1,201 yards, 15.2 yards per catch, 11 touchdowns). Not quite like last year, when the Sooners quarterbacking was shaky. Sooners electrifying, and the Tigers just continue to win. Clemson couldn't stop North Carolina's Williams, so I am going for Mayfield and the Sooners. Oklahoma is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up |
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12-30-15 | NC State v. Mississippi State -5 | Top | 28-51 | Win | 100 | 68 h 19 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units This year appeared dismal for Mississippi State, until Prescott and his do-everything talent, opted to return for his Senior year. And he is once more extremely dangerous, as shown in Mississppi State's 51-50 win over Arkansas, in which he threw for 508 yards and 5 touchdowns, and ran for 46 yards and 2 touchdowns. By season's end he became only the 6th SEC player to account for at least 100 touchdowns. This year, he is at 284.4 passing yards per game, 67%, and 25 touchdowns with 4 interceptions, while leading the Bulldogs with 541 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. The Wolfpack of North Carolina State opened at 4-0, but those wins came versus teams with Power Ratings of 25, 27, 28, along with a non-lined outfit. Just 3 wins thereafter, against Wake Forest, Boston College, and Syracuse, teams with 3-9, 3-9, and 4-8 records. So nary a win over any sort of quality opponent, although they did stay with Clemson for a half, before inevitable 56-41 loss (623-389 yard deficit). QB Brissett is an efficient 61.3%, and solid 19 touchdowns with 4 interceptions, but the North Carolina State running game is a shambles with the loss of Dayes (6.5 yards per rush, 12 touchdowns), and Thornton. The Bulldogs with a totally different psyche from last year's bowl loss |
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12-30-15 | Memphis +3 v. Auburn | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The other Tiger in this match, namely Memphis', opened the season on a 7-0 run, which included consecutive wins over bowl-bound Bowling Green, Cincinnati, South Florida, Ole Miss, and Tulsa. That resulted in a #15 poll ranking, with dreams of a playoff spot, before it all came crashing down in a 45-20 loss to Navy, with a 374-133 rushing yard deficit. And that shocker was followed by an even more bitter loss, when they blew a 34-14 lead over then 9-0 Houston with 12:58 left, losing, 35-34, in the final 1:27. Then an crumbling loss to Temple, before regrouping for 63-0 frustration releasing rout of hapless (2-10) Smu. QB Lynch is their horse, with 3,670 passing yard, 69%, and a stellar 28 touchdowns with only 3 interceptions. Motivation is key here, as Memphis goes for its 2nd straight 10-win season, |
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12-29-15 | Texas Tech +7.5 v. LSU | 27-56 | Loss | -130 | 50 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Seems as if LSU QB Harris (1,904 yards, 53%, 12/5) is just along for the ride, as Tigers rank 110th in passing. Not the case with the Raiders and their splendid Sophomore QB Mahomes, who has torched opponents for 4,238 passing yards (357 per game), 65%, with 32 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. And he is complemented by Washington, who ranks 13th in the land with 121.3 rushing yards per game (14 TDS). Try topping 50 points five times. However, as noted previously, when their opponents have the ball, it's curtains, as they've allowed more than 43 points on 7 occasions, including their 59-45 opening day win over non-spread Sam Houston. Bowl wise, the Tigers have covered just 1 of their last 6, while Tech has won 5 of its last 6 bowls SU. |
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12-29-15 | Air Force +7.5 v. California | 36-55 | Loss | -120 | 48 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units For the Air Force, this marks its 8th bowl game in the past 9 years, missing only with '13's brutal 2-10 record squad, which ranked 116th and 114th in scoring and total defense. However, head coach Calhoun then guided them to a record-tying 8-game turnaround with last years 10-3 record, including a 38-24 win over Western Michigan in the Idaho Potato Bowl, with a 284-79 rushing yard edge. This year, the home team has won 11-of-13 Air Force games on the field, but check a 37-30 win at Boise (18-point cover) with 328-141 rushing yard edge. By the way, the Falcons rank 23rd in total defense. I'll be shocked if this doesn't turn into a barn burner. This one is an underdog call. |
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12-28-15 | Central Michigan +5 v. Minnesota | 14-21 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units For the Chippewas of Central Michigan, this is their 7th bowl game in the past 10 years, and so far they stand at 4-1-1 ATS (3-3 SU). QB Rush is the real deal, with 309 passing yards per game, 67%, and 25 touchdowns with 10 interceptions, leading Chips to a 5-1 SU windup, with their only miss in narrow 28-23 loss to 9-2 Toledo, after trailing 21-0 in the first 16:33. A year ago, they put it to me in the Bahamas Bowl, when they staged an unbelievable comeback versus Western Kentucky (-3½), in turning a 49-14 deficit in the 4th, into a 49-48 loss, with 3 touchdowns in the final 3:06, including a bizarre 20-yard touchdown pass on the final play, only to miss winning 1-point try. Thus, their 3 above bowl losses have been by 3, 3, 1 point. The underdog: 13-6 ATS in Minnesota games and 10-4 ATS in Central Michigan games. |
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12-27-15 | Texans -3 v. Titans | 34-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texan defense back on track, holding horrible Indianapolis offense to 10 points, 14 first downs and 190 yards, after allowing 57 points in their previous 2 games. So the NFL's 7th-ranked defense, but have topped 24 points in just 2 of their last 15 contests. Weeden for Yates for Hoyer at QB, so a fluid situation, although in off first win at Indy in 13 years. Sole leader in AFC South so obviously fully focused. Titans may go it without Mariotta (knee). Tennessee averaging 11.9 points per game in 7-of-10 games, and Houston 12-1 ATS versus less than .500 division opponent off a road game. In addition, Tennessee is 2-13 SU, 3-10-2 ATS in its past 15 home contests. |
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12-27-15 | Browns v. Chiefs -10.5 | 13-17 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Browns and Johnny Manziel couldn’t cover as two-touchdown road underdogs last Sunday against Seattle. Now they get to try being double-digit underdogs against even a hotter team as Kansas City has won eight straight while going 7-1 ATS. The Chiefs are 24-2 SU, 18-8 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown. Kansas City is more opportunistic than good with a plus 15 takeaway ratio. Mike Pettine is dead man walking. Pettine would best be served letting Manziel get out of the pocket and try to work his old college magic. But Pettine is too old school and narrow-minded to do that. Cleveland has dropped 13 of its last 14 games in December |
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12-27-15 | Cowboys +6.5 v. Bills | 6-16 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dallas has done a great job of proving it can’t win without Tony Romo going 1-9 in his absence. Yet the Cowboys keep things close with six of their losses coming by seven points or less. Dallas has covered 79 percent of the time, too, the past 24 times as an underdog of more than three points. Expect Kellen Moore to get the start, which should provide a spark from stale and washed-up Matt Cassel. Revitalized Darren McFadden has put together five 100-yard rushing games, while Buffalo may be without its best running back, LeSean McCoy, who suffered a knee injury this past Sunday. The unmotivated Bills have dropped four in a row, surrendering an average of 27.2 points during this span. They will be missing the playoffs for the 16th straight season, longest streak in the NFL. Rex Ryan has proven to be more quip than sizzle. He’s turned a strong defense into an inept one. |
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12-27-15 | Panthers -6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -103 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week Quick revenge shot for Falcons, who were taken apart, 38-0, just 2 weeks ago, along with a 424-230 yard deficit. At least Atlanta save some face, by snapping 0-6 SU and 0-9 ATS slides (1st cover since Oct 4) in 23-17 win over Jags. Still -79 points ATS last 10 games, and 0-5 ATS in division play. Panther magic continues, although blowing 35-28 lead in 3rd was a bit scary. Cam simply superb: 5 touchdown passes in 3-of-5 tilts (19 in those 3). Now 18 straight regular season wins. Falcs 1-15 ATS as underdogs of greater than 3 points off 2 road games |
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12-27-15 | Steelers -10 v. Ravens | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day - It has all fallen apart for the Ravens, who got off to that horrid 0-3 and 1-6 start. At least they've been competitive at home, with first 5 games decided by 4 points or less SU. That is until the last 2 weeks, namely 35-6 and 34-14 losses to smoking Seahawks and Chiefs. First time in their 20-year history, that the Ravens have dropped 5 home games. And it hardly gets any easier, as Pittsburgh not only finished last weeks game with Denver on a 24-0 run, but has topped 29 points in its last 6 games. Ben is now at 337 passing yards per game. No stopping the Steelers now. |
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12-26-15 | Indiana -3 v. Duke | 41-44 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hoosiers scored 53 touchdowns. QB Nate Sudfield was brilliant in the homestretch, compensating for the absence of RB Jordan Howard (knee injury; check status). But the IU “D” was a sore spot once again. The Hoosiers allowed 503 yards per game and were last in passing yards allowed. Duke was close-but-no-cigar vs. stronger opponents in their last two bowl games. Perhaps this is the year they get over the hump, but the absence of Cash, who had post-season wrist surgery, looms large, tilting me toward Indiana which played the stronger schedule and was live into the 4th quarter vs. Iowa, Ohio State, and Michigan. |
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12-26-15 | Connecticut v. Marshall -5 | 10-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A win here would mean 3 straight double digit win campaigns for Marshall, something that hasn't happened since their glory years of '97 thru '02, when they went 65-13 (Randy Moss, Chad Pennington, etc). However, the Herd hardly faced the toughest schedule in the land, beating only one team with a winning record (SoMiss), while the Huskies are responsible for Houston's only loss, holding the Coogs to only 1 offensive TD. Points at a premium here, and Marshall's post-season pedigree has me leaning in their direction. The Thundering Herd are 7-1 SU/ATS in their last eight bowl games and UConn hasn't won a meaningful road game all year. |
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12-24-15 | Cincinnati v. San Diego State -2.5 | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Aztecs continue as an "under the radar" squad that simply wins. This year, they started 1-3 SU, before turning it around completely, with, not only a 9-game SU run, but accompanying 7-1-1 ATS mark, with their only miss by 2 points in their 27-24 MWC title game win over Air Force. They are the opposite of Cincinnati, as they are a run-oriented outfit, led by the brilliant Pumphrey, who has a combined 3,421 rushing yards and 36 touchdowns the past 2 years. The Aztecs have gone it without QB Smith their last 2 games, which has to hurt, with his 13/2 TD to INT ratio. Such a loss cannot be negated, although the Aztecs field not only that overland attack, but also the nation's 5th best defense |
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12-23-15 | Georgia Southern v. Bowling Green -5 | 58-27 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Falcons of Bowling Green have gone bowling 4 of the previous 6 years, with 43-42, 29-20, 30-27, 33-28 finals. Pure entertainment, with plenty of fireworks. And the menu is again filled, behind the redoubtable Johnson, who has thrown for 4,700 yards (68%), 43 TDs and just 8 picks, although he was a pedestrian 2/2 in Bowling Green's 34-14 win over NIU in the MAC title game (28-0 in 3rd). In their final 7 regular season games, the Falcons averaged 49.7 points per game, stumbling only in a 5-Turn over loss to 9-2 Toledo, with Johnson a mediocre 3/2. Although, this is the Eagle's first "big time" bowl, make no mistake, they've been an FCS power for ages, but can they control the ball enough to quell that Bowling Green offense? Nope. |
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12-23-15 | Boise State -7.5 v. Northern Illinois | 55-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit Profit Play The Huskies of Northern Illinois are also a step below recent editions, which finished at 11-3, 11-3, 12-2, 12-2, 11-3 from '10 thru '14. So this makes 8 consecutive bowl campaigns for this somewhat unnoticed school, which has gone 2-5, both SU & ATS, in its previous holiday ventures. However, a definite bowl trend comes into play, as the favorite has won & covered ALL 7 of those games, most notably in their 31-10 (+13½) loss to Florida State in the '12 Orange Bowl. Nicely balance, but lost QB Hare (1,962, 14/4) in upset of previously perfect Toldeo (Nov 3). Couldn't stay with Bowling Green in MAC title (501-259 yard deficit). Just cannot dismiss that bowl chalk success. In addition, The Broncos are 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS in bowl games in which HC Bryan Harsin was involved |
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12-21-15 | Lions v. Saints -2.5 | 35-27 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Detroit is 4-18 ATS in games played during December and later and are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 regular season road match ups. Drew Brees has 18 touchdown throws in six home games compared to six touchdown passes in an equal number of road games |
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12-21-15 | Western Kentucky v. South Florida +3 | 45-35 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This year USF scored 51 touchdowns, 15 more than in the last two seasons combined! In their last three starts – versus Temple, Cincinnati, and hapless UCF – the 9-3 Bulls erupted for 1572 yards (968 rushing) and 153 points. Red Shirt frosh QB Quinton Flowers, a cornerstone of Taggart’s strong 2014 recruiting class, was a difference-maker. This game finds Taggart matched against his alma mater and the team that he coached from 2009 to 2012. He recruited many of the WKU players, notably Doughty. The crowd will be heavily tilted toward USF fans. Bulls wound up on 7-1 SU and 8-1 ATS runs (+115½ points ATS) |
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12-20-15 | Cardinals -3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 40-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day Seven straight wins for the Cards, who were saved when vet Freeney forced Minny fumble in final 0:05. No question that Arizona plays its best ball on the road (32-19 points per game edge), and not about to go into late swoon after last years disastrous finish (without Palmer, who is now at 4,003 yards and 31 touchdowns with only 9 interceptions). Eagles 6-2 SU when Bradford starts and finishes, but no Philly touchdowns in final 40:38 versus Buffalo. Kelly is 2-10 ATS off 2 wins, and 1-8 ATS versus the NFC West. And Eagles are 0-9 ATS off 2 SU/ATS wins versus non-division. |
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12-20-15 | Browns v. Seahawks -14.5 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Finally. Has Manziel come into his own, with 21-of-13 showing as Browns snapped 7-game losing streak, in 24-10 rout of San Francisco, with 230-71 rushing yard edge? Entered that one with 190-75 point deficit in prior 7 contests. Well, the joy is short-lived, as truly mighty Seahawks are now on another level. Four straight wins and covers (73-13 point edge past 2 weeks and 141-61 past 4), with Wilson a brilliant 16 touchdown with 0 interceptions over that span, accompanied by a 651-176 rushing yard edge. Seahawks 9-1 ATS off double digit non-division cover. |
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12-20-15 | Packers -3 v. Raiders | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Packers handily defeated both the Vikings and Chiefs. Rodgers can exploit Oakland’s defense that ranked 25th in both yards and points allowed through this past Sunday. The Raiders rate among the bottom five teams in pass defense. Oakland is improved under Jack Del Rio, but is at least a year away from serious playoff contention. The Packers have made the playoffs six consecutive years. It’s a long trip to the West Coast for Green Bay, but the focus and professionalism should be there. The Packers know they can’t afford to slip since they play the Cardinals on the road next week before closing the regular season against the Vikings |
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12-20-15 | Bills -2 v. Redskins | 25-35 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Twenty-four years ago, these 2 met in SuperBowl XXVI. A pair of 6-7 squads, with the Bills in dire straits in Wild Card chase (2 back), while the Redskins are tied atop the NFC East. Washington in off its 1st road win of the season (had dropped 7 straight away), and allowed just 14, 14, and 19 points in L3 home games. Bills' held Philadekphia without a touchdown over final 40:38 last week, and Taylor a fine 18 touchdowns with 5 interceptions. Buffalo is 6-0 ATS versus Washington, and 6-1-1 in 2nd of 2 road games |
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12-20-15 | Panthers -3.5 v. Giants | 38-35 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Truly a spectacular season for the perfect Panthers, who waltzed through their latest rout versus hapless Falcons, 38-0, with another 3 toudhdowns and 0 interceptions from Cam and 5 sacks of Ryan. Thus far, they've outrushed 12-of-13 opponents. So now on an 18-0 regular season SU run, topping 26 points in their last 11 games. Hopeful Giants in Carolina, Minny, Philly windup, but taking on this squad off a Monday Night affair not the best of setups. Ten years ago, Carolina came in here, and destroyed the Giants, 23-0, in the playoffs. Ditto |
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12-19-15 | BYU +2.5 v. Utah | 28-35 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This contest not only matches a pair of long-time opponents, who last met in '13, but 2 squads steeped in bowl tradition. For the Utes of Utah, this makes it 12 bowls in 15 years, and since '06, they stand at 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in holiday contests, and that includes 4 outright upsets in the 5 times they were pegged as underdogs. A seamless transition from Meyer (Urban), to Wittingham in '05. This season, Utah received nary a vote in our opening issue "Polls" column, following a pair or 5-7 campaigns (1-5 windup in '14), but found itself ranked 3rd in the nation, due to a 6-0 start which included an unprecedented 62-20 road win over mighty Oregon, with 273 rushing yards and 257 passing yards. However, it came crashing down with a 4-TO loss to Southern California, an OT loss at Arizona, and a follow-up week setback to Ucla. So a current #20 spot in the polls, with an unexceptional offense or defense. QB Wilson a miserable 13 touchdowns with 10 interceptions for the season, with the dog covering the Utes' last 5 games (3 upsets in their final 4 games). For the 2nd straight season, the Cougars of BYU (11th straight bowl year) have seen their leader and Heisman hopeful, QB Hill out with a season-ending injury (game #1 this year), and so went the Cougars hopes. But the insertion of frosh QB Mangum produced immediate returns, tossing 42-yard "Hail Mary" touchdown pass on opening game's final play to take snake-bit Nebraska, 33-28, following that up with shocking 35-24 upset of Boise (2 touchdowns in final 0:45: 35-yard Mangum pass and pick-6). But blew 10-point 4th quarter lead at Ucla and were shutout at Michigan. But a 7-1 windup (3-3 ATS) with a 103-38 point edge in its final 2 games has landed Byu here. Mangum is the first Cougar frosh QB to top 3,000 passing yards (3,062: 21/7). Not much overland support, but Byu just gets it done. |
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12-17-15 | Bucs +2 v. Rams | 23-31 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sixteen years ago, these 2 met for the NFL Title. Five-game slide of Rams is now history, taking the iffy Lions behind another 140 Gurley rushing yard (8.8 yards per rush), and 203 rushing yards overall. Quite a difference from failing to top 94 rushing yards the previous 4 games, and being held below 14 points on 7 occasions this year. Despite loss to Saints, note the Bucs with 676-167 rushing yard edge in their last 4 games (Martin: 1,241 yards). Doug Martin ranks second in the league with 1,214 rushing yards and third in the NFC with 1,413 yards from scrimmage. The 26-year-old has recorded six touchdowns in his last 10 games, including five on the ground. Winston is the third rookie quarterback in league history to eclipse the 3,000-yard mark. The visitor is 19-10 ATS in Tampa games, while the Rams are just 1-7 ATS Thursdays. |
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12-13-15 | Patriots -3 v. Texans | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 30 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Pats on their first 2-game losing streak since '12. Hardly seems possible. Tom just 3 touchdowns with 2 interceptions in loss to Philladelphia (has 31 touchdowns with 6 interceptions for the season), which saw New England allow 35 unanswered points, including TDs on blocked punt, 99-yard Interception return, and 83-yard punt return. But 27-15 first down and 427-248 yard edges over the Eagles, so still dynamite. Texans' 4-game run ended late at Buffalo. The Patriots are going to get their points because they have the leaders to put them in the right situations. The Texans have just a lone playmaker on offense, DeAndre Hopkins. Their ground attack is pedestrian at best and Hoyer is incapable of trading points with Brady. The Patriots defense received a huge boost with the return of linebacker Jamie Collins, who was leading the team in tackles before missing four games due to illness |
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12-13-15 | Lions -3 v. Rams | 14-21 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rams might be missing star cornerback Janoris Jenkins, who suffered a concussion last Sunday. Before falling to Green Bay, Detroit had reeled off three consecutive victories beating the Packers, Raiders and Eagles. The Rams are 1-7 out of division. St. Louis’ pass rush has tailed off recording only six sacks in its last five games. Robert Quinn has been out. The Lions’ run defense has stiffened holding foes to less than 60 yards on the ground during the last four weeks. That’s key because of the Rams’ heavy reliance on Todd Gurley. Detroit has one of the sharper defensive coordinators in Teryl Austin. The Lions are used to playing indoors, too. |
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12-13-15 | Bills +1 v. Eagles | 20-23 | Loss | -102 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Eagles snapped 3-game slide last week versus Pats despite 27-15 first down and 427-248 yard deficits. Touchdowns on blocked punt, 99-yard pick-6, and 83-yard punt return. Nice work, if you can get it. But can't ignore a defense which has allowed 39.3 points per game the last 3 weeks, and 27+ points 5-of-last-6 games, as well as Pat/Card sandwich. Bills' Taylor keeping it going (3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions versus Houston, and now 17 touchdowns 4 interceptions for the year), with 40-yard touchdown pass in final 1:53 versus smoking Texans. And check another 112 rushing yards from McCoy. Dog is 9-4-2 ATS in Buffalo games, and I feel the wrong team is favored. |
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12-13-15 | Titans v. Jets -7 | 8-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
Ratng: 2 Units Titans in off snapping 11-game home losing streak, in narrow 42-39 win over the Jags, with 2 touchdowns in a 0:44 stretch of the 4th (87-yard Mariotta run and a fumble return). Tennessee not the most consistent of squads, being held below 15 points on 7 occasions, but at 34.4 points per game in their other 5. In revenge/Patriot sandwich here, and Jets a team on the rise, following listless 5-game stretch. Two straight wins, behind Fitzpatrick's 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, along with leagues' 3rd best defense. New York is 7-2 ATS versus Tennessee, and Titans 0-11 ATS off scoring at least 28 points. |
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12-13-15 | Falcons v. Panthers -7.5 | Top | 0-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week The perfect Panthers stand at 12-0 SU this year, and 16-0 SU in regular season play, behind 2nd best defense in the league, and Newton's leadership (5 touchdowns with 1 interception last week and now 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions this year). Missed spread last week via pair of botched PATs and 2-point runback off failed 2-point try (497-334 yard edge) versus Saints. For Falcons, it all continues. Five straight losses (last 1:39 at Tampa), and now at 6-6 SU, after 5-0 start, and a horrid 0-8 ATS run (-58 points). |
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12-10-15 | Vikings v. Cardinals -10 | 20-23 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These 2 may very well see each other in January. Would you believe that the mighty Cards haven't covered at home since Sept? No questioning their worth, ranking 1st and 4th in total offense and defense, and in off 29-9 first down, 524-212 total yards pasting of Rams. Six straight wins, but just 3-3 ATS. Palmer now at 29 touchdowns with 9 interceptions and 3,693 yards. Minnesota in off worst home loss since '84 (433-125 yard deficit in 38-7 setback to Seahawks). Arizona 10-1 ATS in December versus opponents off a double digit SU loss. |
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12-06-15 | Panthers -6.5 v. Saints | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -104 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NFL Game of the Month Talk about opposite directions! The Saints are in off their 1st no-TD showing in 155 games, with Brees TDless for first time in 46 games. New Orleans on 0-3-1 ATS slide (-61½ points), and 6-12-1 ATS since '14. Panthers, of course, are perfect: 11-0 SU, 9-2 ATS TY, & 11-3 since last year, with their only misses by 3½, 3½, 2½ points. Have topped 26 points in their last 9 games, are +16 turn overs. That defebse is superb, while Cam and mates should feast on Saints horrid stop unit (NFL's worst). And Carolina 11-3 ATS as series visitor |
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12-06-15 | Broncos -4 v. Chargers | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Finally. Chargers snapped 6-game slide, with upset of 4-7 Jacksonville, as Rivers a perfect 4 touchdowns with 0 interceptions (now with 23 touchdwns and8 inteceptions, with 3,511 passing yards). But San Diego has outrushed just one team since its opener, and certainly won't do much versus Bronco defense, which game up 39 rushing yards in comeback win over previously unbeaten Patriots. No Manning for Denver, but Oswelier 3 touchdowns with 1 interception since taking over, overcoming 21-7 deficit in 4th last week (Anderson: 113 rushing yards). Started with Tebow, but Denver is 14-0 SU on division road, and San Diego 2-12 ATS as division host. |
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12-06-15 | Chiefs -3 v. Raiders | Top | 34-20 | Win | 106 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week Talk about streaky. Chiefs came from 9-1 ATS run, to 3-9, to current 5-0 (+89 pts). Five straight wins, with 761 rushing yards, and a 14/0 turnover advantage. They have a 62-16 point edge in their 2 division road games so far, with vastly improved Raiders victim #3. The dog is 7-3 ATS in Oakland games, with the only misses by a mere 1½, 4, & 2 points. Carr's touchdown pass in final 1:21 versus Titans snapped 3-game Oakland slide, but note the Raiders losing their last home game by 19 points ATS. Chiefs 9-3 ATS as series guests |
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12-06-15 | Cardinals -4.5 v. Rams | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No question, as to which of these 2 has the better squad, as the high-flying Cards have huge edges in all categories, most noteworthy their 1st-rated offense, with the Rams coming in at 31st, behind only the Niners. Five straight Arizona wins, and 4 straight St. Louis losses. Ariens 7-2 ATS off SU win versus a less than .500 opponent. |
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12-06-15 | Jets -130 v. Giants | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
Ratings: 2 Units Jets came from 17 and 17 point offensive showings, to 38, in rout of Miami, with 137-12 rushing yard edge. Fitzpatrick with a nice 4 and 0 interception effort, his most touchdown passes since joining this outfit, and he is now 20 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. The Giants nearly overcame a 20-0 4th quarter deficit in their eventual 20-14 loss at Washington, there by enabling Washington to share the NFC East lead with an impressive 5-6 mark. Eli just 2 touchdowns with 3 interceptions, and now 23 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, and note only 33 rushing yards in that loss. Giants are 0-7 ATS as December hosts off a SU/ATS loss. |
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12-05-15 | North Carolina +5 v. Clemson | 37-45 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Fifteen straight wins for the Tigers, and eleven straight for the Tar Heels. But Clemson hasn't been as dominant recently, not truly impressive since 58-0 stomping of Miami. But 14th on offense and 7th on defense. Watson with 27 touchdowns and 10 interceptions (3 rushing yards last week). North Carolina's Williams and Hood: 18 touchdowns with 8 interceptions and 107 rushing yards per game, and 'Heels have outplayed all opponents but Georgia Tech (4 yards). Despite a somewhat questionable defense. |
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12-05-15 | Michigan State -3.5 v. Iowa | 16-13 | Loss | -100 | 49 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Michigan State would be undefeated too if not for a fluky 39-38 setback at Nebraska. Last week, in a prime let down spot, the Spartans dispatched Penn State with ease, winning 55-16. A major story line was the play of the offensive line, a unit that was beset by injuries earlier in the season. It didn’t allow a sack. And while Penn State was without their most disruptive defender, DE Carl Nassib, that was still quite an accomplishment considering that Penn State entered the contest leading the nation in sacks. In his post-game comments, MSU HC Mark Dantanio referenced the Ohio State Buckeyes of 2014 when he noted that his club was peaking at the right time. Iowa QB C.J. Beathard is very good, but MSU counterpart Connor Cook, a three-year co-captain, has aged like fine wine. |
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12-05-15 | Southern Miss +8 v. Western Kentucky | 28-45 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Could be classic barn burner. The Eagles' Mullens at 330 passing yards per game with 35 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, and Southern Miss has a 374-205 point edge in its last 9 games, covering their last 3 road games by 105 points. 'Toppers' Doughty at 349 passing yards per game with 42 touchdown and 6 interceptions, and Western Kentucky ranks 6th, 4th, 10th in passing, scoring, total offense, and at 44.2 points per game in last 11 games. But Southern Miss has the defensive edges. |
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12-05-15 | Temple v. Houston -5.5 | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 41 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - Combined 23-3 record for these 2 exceptional squads. Coogs have topped 32 points in all but 1 game, their only loss, due mainly to 4 turn overs. Check 27 first downs and 555 yards (1 punt) versus Navy (22-point cover). Owls a nice 58-15 point windup versus Memphis and U Conn (+32 points ATS), after South Florida debacle. But were nailed for 326 rushing yards in that Bull loss. This a host call. |
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11-29-15 | Saints v. Texans -3 | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Three straight wins for the Texans, sharing the top rung of the AFC South with the Colts. Yates for Hoyer is paying dividends. Two TD tosses vs the Jets, with the defense snagging a late pair of interceptions to preserve latest win. Check allowing only 9.7 points per game in Texans' L3 games, and that includes putting the clamps on the Bengals, who are at 29 points per game. Saint is nearing invisibility, allowing 43.3 points per game in their L3 games, which more than offsets any Brees efforts. New Orleans is 0-6 ATS 2nd of 2 road games. That won't change |
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11-29-15 | Dolphins v. Jets -3.5 | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A pair of slumping squads meet here, with the Jets's 4-1 start evolving into today's 5-5 mark (0-4 ATS, by 38 points), and with the Dolphins posting a 112-58 point deficit in their last 4 games. A 22-9 first down deficit in Miami's 24-14 home loss, nd check a eye-popping 181-63 point deficit in Dolphins' last 6 division road games. Fitzpatrick still not up to par for Jets, tossing a pair of late picks in loss to Houston. But that New York defense still ranks among the best (#4), and 1st versus the run. Revenge play for Fish, but 0-6 ATS away in that role |
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11-29-15 | Raiders v. Titans +1.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Perhaps it’s a leap of faith to put the Titans in this preferred category. They have dropped 10 in a row at home. Realize, though, only one of those home defeats occurred under new coach Mike Malarkey’s watch. Both of these teams are improved with extremely promising young quarterbacks. The Raiders, however, have too much against them. Oakland is 1-17 SU, 7-11 ATS the last 18 times playing the Eastern Time Zone. The Raiders are further hindered by an early start time. This marks their second straight road game and third in four weeks. The Titans have extra rest since they last played on Thursday. Oakland is 6-21 ATS as a favorite. |
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11-29-15 | Vikings +1 v. Falcons | Top | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFL Game of the Week Current Falcon futility continues. Opened at 4-0 (+42 points ATS), but just the reverse since, going 2-4 SU and 0-6 versus the points (-43½ pts). And Ryan, who has been remarkably steady, was responsible for 3 of Atlanta's 4 second half turnovers in blowing a pair of 14-point leads versus the Colts. The Vikings had their confidence shaken a bit with 30-13 loss to the Packers, but are still +44½ points ATS in their last 9 games. Minny is 7-1 ATS off a division game, and a superb 19-4 ATS versus non-division opponents. I'll grab this dog |
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11-29-15 | Bucs +3 v. Colts | Top | 12-25 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NFL Play of the Day Now that's what I call a statement. Tampa Bay QB Winston tied a rookie record with 5 touchdown passes in 45-17 rout of a decent Philly squad, with Martin contributing 235 rushing yards just for good measure. Indianapolis is going it without Luck, with Hasselbeck leading a 17-0 windup versus the Falcons. So a field goal favorite here. Well, the underdog has covered ALL TEN Colt games this season, and Tampa is 13-0 ATS as a road underdog off reaching 28+ points. Underdog call here! |
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11-28-15 | Nevada v. San Diego State -17 | 14-31 | Push | 0 | 104 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Game of the Week Seven straight wins and covers for the Aztecs (+140 points ATS), with an 86-17 point edge in last 2 home games (+50 points ATS). Nevada is 22nd in rushing offense, but San Diego State is 5th in rushing defense. San Diego State keeps it going |
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11-28-15 | Air Force -9.5 v. New Mexico | 35-47 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Five straight wins for Air Force, with 1,788 rushing yards, as expected. But check an unexpected 271 and 279 passing yards from Roberts the last 2 weeks. Double-edged sword. Nearly 3 straight upsets from New Mexico: +48½ points ATS versus Utah State, Boise, and Colorado State (13th in rushing, but 97th total defense). |
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11-28-15 | North Carolina -5.5 v. NC State | Top | 45-34 | Win | 100 | 97 h 48 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit ACC Game of the Week Ten straight wins for North Carolina +108½ points ATS in their last 8 games. They blew a 14-point lead in the final 3:00 at Virginia Tech, but won in overtime. NC State highly respectable 7-4 SU, but the fact is that they've played nobody (last 3 wins versus 3-8, 3-8, 3-8 squads). The favorite is 8-2 ATS in NC State games. |
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11-28-15 | Alabama -13.5 v. Auburn | Top | 29-13 | Win | 100 | 97 h 40 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Game of the Week "Iron Bowl". Tigers bowl eligible, but on a 2-12 ATS run. Note allowing 26 first downs and 479 yards to 3-8 Idaho, and ranking 87th on offense. Won't do much with 3rd-ranked Alabama defense, which has held 8-of-11 opponents under 18 points. And check Jones with 3 punt returns for touchdowns the past 2 games. Alabama in an easy one. |
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11-27-15 | Kent State v. Akron -9.5 | 0-20 | Win | 100 | 69 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Call similar score to Zip romp of Buffalo, as balanced offense, behind Woodson (4 touchdowns with 0 interceptions last week), has them at 6-5 SU. Kent looking for an offense: #127, #126 in scoring, total. A 166-53 point their deficit last 3 (-58½ points ATS) |
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11-27-15 | Navy -3 v. Houston | Top | 31-52 | Loss | -112 | 40 h 47 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Bye-bye to perfect season for Houston, who came from 256 rushing yards per game to 110 in loss to U Conn. A bit gimpy at QB, but still 12th in rush defense. So Navy won't run on that unit, right? Wrong. Winner to AAC title game, and Navy at 348 rushing yards per game, behind Reynolds' leadership (418.5 per game last 4 games) |
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