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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles +3.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 52 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philly managed just one lone TD in their upset of the onrushing Falcons, with standing a last-second defeat, via a questionable incompletion on the game's final play. That one snapped a Philly 4-game playoff losing streak, also marking the Eagle's first postseason win, while scoring less than 16 pts. And Philadelphia is also 4-0 as a playoff home dog. Foles last week: 23-of-30, which is huge. The last 8 AFC/NFC title games have been won by the home team. Site cannot be overstated. Eagles! |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots -7 | 20-24 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This one marks their 7th straight AFC title game, & not only that, but New England has also won 7 straight home playoff games, with their last host slip up coming in the 2012 title loss to the eventual Super Bowl champ Ravens. Last week, they outscored the hopeful Titans, 35-7 after the first quarter (35 unanswered points). Tom: 35-of-53 for 337 yards, & 3/0 (TDs to INT ratio). By the way, that marked his 10th career postseason game with at least 3 TD tosses, passing Joe Montana for the most in NFL history. He wasn't sacked by the Titans, & rarely hurried, while the Pat "D" set a franchise record with 8 sacks of Tennessee QB Mariota. Have held 11 of their last 13 opponents under 18 points, while currently on a 9-1-1 ATS run. |
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01-14-18 | Saints +5 v. Vikings | 24-29 | Push | 0 | 29 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Like Minnesota, New Orleans also changed quite a bit after the season opener as former Vikings great Adrian Peterson was jettisoned to Arizona in favor of the two-pronged attack of Mark Ingram and rookie Alvin Kamara. The potent pair became the first running back duo in league history to gain more than 1,500 yards from scrimmage and helped New Orleans lead the NFL with 4.7 yards per carry and 23 rushing touchdowns. Kamara finished second among running backs in catches with 81 during the regular season, but had just one against the Panthers last weekend. Michael Thomas more than picked up the slack, however, reeling in eight of nine targets for 131 yards in his playoff debut. The Saints are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games and 42-20-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 26 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The surprising Jaguars certainly didn't overly impress the folks, with their nail biting win over the Bills. Just 15 FDs, with a lowly 75 PYs from a suddenly unimpressive Bortles. Jags averaged 34.5 ppg 4 games previous to 10 & 10 points in their last 2 outings. Not the best of times to be taking on the steady "D" of the Steelers, although that unit has allowed 23.8 ppg in Pitt's last 6 games. Most notable sidebar here is the Steeler revenge factor, as the Jags picked off Ben 5 times in their first meeting (Oct 8). Obviously, that won't be repeated. Return of WR Brown is key (led NFL in receiving, despite missing 3 games). Pitt 2-5 ATS as chalk of 7+ points. Dog call. |
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01-13-18 | Titans +14 v. Patriots | 14-35 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nine straight AFC East titles for the Patriots, who just continue along with their other worldly accomplishments. Brady at yet another outstanding 32/8 (4,577 yards, 66.3%) although he did toss a pick in each of 5 straight games down the stretch. But the Pats always have the answers. Note ranking 29th on "D", but holding 10 of last 12 foes under 18 points, & on an 8-1-1 ATS run. Titans pulled miraculous upset of the Chiefs, after trailing 21-3 at the half. But note that Mariota is just 15/16, while the host has covered to the tune of 10-2-1 in Titan games, including last week's shocker. Of course, the blowout is a distinct possibility, but the 2-TD spot is pushing it a bit |
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01-13-18 | Falcons -142 v. Eagles | 10-15 | Loss | -142 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the first time ever, a top-seed playoff team has been pegged as the underdog in its opening round. But, with the loss of the Eagles brilliant QB Wentz (33 TD passes; only 7 picks), it was expected, as Philly came from 30.3 ppg in its first 13 games, to just 15.7 ppg in its last 3, with Nick Foles once more the man. So, from a 10-1 start, to 3-2 windup. Quite a gift for the Falcons, who now have more than a legitimate shot at Super Bowl redemption. Check their 37:35-22:25 time edge in upset of the upstart Rams. Ryan not up to last year's standards, but note Philly allowing 7 TD passes in their last 4 games. |
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01-08-18 | Alabama -3.5 v. Georgia | 26-23 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulldogs of Georgia have been special all season, featuring the running of Chubb &Â Michel (now combined 2,449 yards, when including their 326 yards & 5 TDs in that thrilling double overtime win over Oklahoma last week). QB Fromm is obviously the real deal, with a 20-of-29 showing vs the Sooners, with 2 TDs no picks: 23/5 for the season. The 'Dawgs also feature a stellar defense, ranking 12th, 2nd, 3rd, 7th, & 4th vs the run, pass, scoring, passing efficiency, & total "D". When Georgia grabbed 'Bama's defensive coordinator Kirby Smart in '16, it was a stroke of genius, as his stop unit has proven out, despite last week's less than satisfying display vs the Okiies, allowing 48 points & 531 yards. Oh, by the way, in that only other SEC vs SEC national title game, the 'Tide posted a 21-0 shutout of then 13-0 & Number One LSU. 'Dawgs are superb, but 2nd best to this "D" |
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01-07-18 | Panthers v. Saints -6.5 | 26-31 | Loss | -112 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The only playoff game pitting arch-rivals from the same division, &, as you can see, the Saints have gotten the better of it, not just this season, but have covered 6 straight vs the Panthers. Note the fav covering 7 of Carolina's last 9 games, while the Saints are on a 7-2 ATS run as less than DD chalks. Cam is at just 22/16 this year, while Drew just keeps on doing it: 29/10 & another 4,332 passing yards. Lay the points. |
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01-07-18 | Bills +9 v. Jaguars | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units First playoff game for the Bills since the "Music City Miracle", when Buffalo was the victim of a controversial windup loss to the Titans on Jan 8, 2000. The Jags had a combined record of 22-74 from '11-'16, before HC Marrone's arrival, who had the same job with Bills in '13 & '14. First playoff game for Bortles (3,687 yards, 21/13), but Buffalo RB McCoy is limping (ankle). Seems the spread is just a tad too much |
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01-06-18 | Falcons +6 v. Rams | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta won six of its last eight, with the only two losses coming against division winners Minnesota and New Orleans, but Matt Ryan had only five touchdown passes versus four interceptions in the final six games. He still has one of the league's most dangerous targets in Julio Jones, who caught 88 passes and eclipsed 1,400 yards (1,444) for the fourth straight season. The Falcons also feature the backfield tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, who rushed for a combined 1,493 yards and 12 touchdowns while adding 63 receptions and four scores. Atlanta surrendered 19.7 points per game and allowed only one 100-yard rusher. |
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs -8 | 22-21 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The streaky Chiefs are clicking at just the right time. The SU winner has covered all 16 of KC games: runs of 5-0, to 1-6, to 4-0. Their stat edges are hardly all that impressive, although Smith has become an study in efficiency (67.5 & 6/5), with Hunt leading the NFL in rushing. And note KC ranking 2nd in all-important TO ratio. The host has covered to the tune of 11-1-1 in Tennessee tilts, & with this the Titans' 1st playoff games in 9 years, accompanied by current 14-23-1 ATS run, it's the Chiefs. |
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01-01-18 | Alabama v. Clemson +3 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -108 | 145 h 2 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Units Bowl Game of the Day This year's 'Tide hasn't been as overpowering as usual, with but one cover vs bowl opponents, which is mainly due to a "D" that has suffered an abnormal amount of injuries. But even with that, they rank 3rd, 7th, 1st, & 2nd in run, pass, scoring, & total "D". So, still a huge force. The last 2 years, we've bucked the Tigers in their semi-final games vs Oklahoma & Ohio State. Mistake & mistake, as CU (-3½, +1½) dominated both with a combined score of 68-17, and a 1,000-593 yd edge! Absolutely stunning, especially in light of the fact that both the Sooners & Buckeyes entered with identical 11-1 records. Dabo sure can coach. QB Bryant is no Watson, but Tigers more than match for anyone. Take the points |
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01-01-18 | Georgia v. Oklahoma +2 | 54-48 | Loss | -110 | 141 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oklahoma made it this far, 2 years ago, but, as 3½ pt favorites over Clemson, in the Orange Bowl, were mauled by the Tigers, 37-17, with a 312-67 rushing yard deficit along with being outscored 21-0, in the 2nd half. Of course, that overland differential may not seem all that important, because of the Sooners' overhead proficiency. However, note that Oklahoma held a 235-222 rushing yards per game edge over the Tigers at game time. Lesson learned, as a year ago, they routed Auburn, 35-19, in the Sugar Bowl, with a 228-185 rushing yard edge over a Tiger squad that entered with a 279-125 rushing yards per game advantage. However, their main cog, of course, is Heisman winning QB Mayfield, who has 4,340 passing yards & 41/5, leading the nation in passing efficiency, completion percentage, yards per pass, & yards per completion (16.6), etc. He has 12,005 passing yards since '15. Thus, Okies are at 45.6 ppg in their last 23 games. |
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01-01-18 | Central Florida +10 v. Auburn | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 137 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knights of Central Florida have to be in possession of the most unpredictable football program in the land, as, since '04, they've experienced seasons with final records of 0-11 ('04), 10-4 ('07), 11-3 ('10), 10-4 ('12), 12-1 ('13), 0-12 ('15), & 12-0 ('17). Bowl games? Sure. Eight of them (this makes 9) since the '04 Hawaii, reaching their apex, with '13's 52-42 upset (+17) of Baylor in the Fiesta, never relinquishing the lead. Bears entered that game at 11-1, with a 53-17 ppg edge. So everything is possible. The whole football world is aware of the fact that the Knights are the only perfect FBS team, ranking 7th, 1st, & 5th in passing, scoring, & total offense. QB Milton is a gem, with 3,795 PYs, 69%, & 35/9, ranking only behind Oklahoma's Mayfield, who just was awarded the Heisman Trophy. And he has also run for 497 yards & 10 TDs. So 12-0, but a near double digit underdog vs a squad with 3 losses. Take the points. Â |
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01-01-18 | South Carolina v. Michigan -7.5 | 26-19 | Loss | -105 | 136 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Michigan's offense is nothing to write home about, but return of QB Peters (concussion 38 days ago) is huge plus, as O'Korn was only a 53%, with 2 TDs & 6 picks, filling in for original #1 QB Speight, who left the team in early Oct. The Wolverines hold a 7-FD pg edge over the 'Cocks. A year ago, Michigan climbed its way out of a 20-6 halftime hole vs Florida State, taking a 30-27 lead in the final 1:57, only to allow a Francois TD pass in the last 0:36 in a 33-32 loss. Figures to be a low scoring affair, with the definite edge to the Wolverine "D", along with revenge hammer, from '12's bowl loss. Lay the points. |
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12-31-17 | Saints -5 v. Bucs | 24-31 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Saints have been brilliantly steady since their 0-2 start, averaging 28.6 ppg in their last 13 games. Brees is the fastest player to reach 70,000 career passing yards (248 games: Peyton did it in 258 games). New Orleans clinched a playoff spot with that win over Atlanta, which was its biggest win in 4 years, & will take their division with another here. No, it doesn't happen too often, but this one pits the best offense in the NFL (Saints), vs its worst defense (Bucs). Tampa's Winston threw for 367 yards & a TD vs the Panthers last week, but was sacked six times, & fumbled 3 times. Saints call. |
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12-31-17 | Jaguars +3 v. Titans | 10-15 | Loss | -117 | 26 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jags have nailed down AFC South title, despite Bortles a horrid 3 interceptions, vs the Niners, one a pick-six. That after a 3-week run without a pick the best stretch of his career. However, he did throw for 382 yards & 2 TDs. And note Jacksonville allowing a TD in their first possessions of the game, for the 1st time this year. Check it out. Five losses for the Jags, with every one of their first 4 being followed by blowout wins: 44-7, 30-9, 27-0, & 30-10. Titans have a bit of a shot at a Wild Card insertion, with a win here, coupled with losses for both the Bills & Chargers. But won't take this. |
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12-31-17 | Bengals v. Ravens -9.5 | 31-27 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Neither of these teams is dependable. Bengals made the Seahawk faithful ecstatic with their upset over the Lions, coming from 8 FDs in blowout loss to Minnesota, to a 28-15 FD edge vs Detroit. But can they do the same for the Bills this week? Ravens will clinch with a win here, which will represent their first sweep of Cincinnati since '12, the year that they won the Super Bowl. Have now won 5-of-6, after opening at 4-5. Flacco 29-of-38 vs Colts, & 7/1 over last 4 games. Even if Baltimore loses here, they'll get one of the two Wild Card spots, if either the Bills or Titans fall. Ravens in a rare rout |
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12-31-17 | Bears v. Vikings -11.5 | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Vikings have been "money", with yet another spread streak, covering 9 of their last 10 outings, doing it both offensively, behind the leadership of Keenum, who had thrown for 3,497 yards, 67%, with 22 TD tosses & just 7 picks, as well as defensively, with a "D" that has held 10-of-13 foes below 18 points. Left a frigid Lambeau Field with its first shutout win since a 13-0 effort over the Lions on Dec 5, 1993. And it was their first blanking of the Packers since '71. The Bears field 8th best "D" in the NFL, but 30th-ranked "O", that won't dent the Vikings in this |
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12-31-17 | Packers v. Lions -7 | 11-35 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It seems difficult to believe that the Lions are again on the outside, looking in, playoff-wise. Especially with the season that Stafford has had, 26 TD passes & just 10 picks, along with 4,123 PYs. So, as the highest paid player in NFL history, he has exactly zero playoff wins. They are 3-4 at home this season, but note the favorite covering to the tune of 7-1-2 in Detroit's last 10 games. For the Packers, they weren't shutout in 158 games, with Rodgers, but have been blanked twice since Hundley took over starting job 8 games ago. Visitor is 7-2 ATS in Green Bay games, but Lions in a romp |
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12-30-17 | Wisconsin -5.5 v. Miami-FL | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 97 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Badgers are again a "run-first" outfit, having the overland edge in every game, before crashing in their Big Ten title loss to Ohio State, with a 238-60 rushing yard deficit. But, whereas the Buckeyes rank 7th & 8th in rushing in total "D", the 'Canes come in at 43rd & 41st, respectively. Frosh Taylor is their "money" back, ranking 3rd in the nation, with 1,857 rushing yards, 6.8 yards per rush, & 13 TDs (41 yards on 16 carries in showdown loss to Ohio State). Forty-first bowl for Miami, which has lost 7 of its last 8 on the field, & 6-of-8 ATS. |
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12-30-17 | Washington +3 v. Penn State | 28-35 | Loss | -120 | 92 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units And the Washington "D" is again a rock, ranking 17th, 8th, & 10th in rushing, scoring, & total, while sitting at 3rd, 6th, & 6th this year. Just 2 losses, by 6 & 8 points, at Arizona State & Stanford. That close to a spot in the playoffs. But speaking of "close" the Nits only losses in their last 22 games have come by 3 (last year's final-second Rose Bowl loss to Usc), 1, & 3 points (this year's losses at Ohio State & Michigan State, in last 1:48; & 0:00). QB McSorley is at 3,228 yards, 65%, & 36/8, while RB Barkley has 1,729 yards rushing & receiving (19 TDs). And the Lion "D" ranks 7th in scoring. Talk about your "coin flip" decisions. I'm taking the points. |
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12-30-17 | Iowa State +4 v. Memphis | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 89 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cyclones of Iowa State, of course, shocked the football world with their 38-31 upset of otherwise perfect Oklahoma, overcoming a 24-10 deficit, winning in the L 2:19. That proved no fluke, as Iowa State's 5 losses came by just 3, 10, 4, 7 & 1 pt (Kansas State at the gun), all to eventual bowl teams, with just 3 opponents cracking the 20-pt barrier in Cyclone games. Nothing exceptional, offensively, although Kempt is 67% & 13/3, while Montgomery has 1,094 rushing yards (knee: probable). Both excel in forcing the TO. Get this: Iowa State is +219.5 points ATS in 19 of its last 20 games. I'll go along with that longevity. |
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12-30-17 | Louisville -6.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -115 | 88 h 18 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Bowl Game of the Day The Bulldogs have been one of our "goto" squads this year, with their 8 wins coming by an average of 21 points per game SU, & 10.2 points per game ATS, but also heed 2 of their 4 losses coming by 28, 39 points (#3 Georgia, #7 Auburn). Their offensive fireworks have overshadowed one of the finest stop units in the land (#10). They have, however, lost the services of QB Fitzgerald, who, like his predecessor, Dak Prescott, could do it all, both overhead (1,782 passing yards, 56%, 15/11), & overland (984 rushing yards, 14 TDs). And how about seeing 9th-yr HC Mullen leave for the Florida Gators. This all adds up to solid win for dedicated Cards. |
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12-29-17 | USC +8.5 v. Ohio State | 7-24 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Barrett entered Ohio State's Fiesta Bowl meeting vs Clemson at 2,428 passing yards, 24/5, with 847 rushing yards, but was stymied by the Tigers: 127 passing yards, 0/2, with minus 2 rushing yards. Troy's 74th ranked "D" certainly won't duplicate that showing, so, as usual, it has to outscore the Bucks, ala last year's 52-49 last-second Rose Bowl win over Penn State, with a 17-0 4th quarter edge. QB Darnold (3,787 yards, 64%, 26/12) & RB Jones (1,486 yards, 18 TDs) are a fearsome combo. I'll grab the TD here. |
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12-29-17 | Utah State -4 v. New Mexico State | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Mexico State has five double digit losing campaigns in their previous 7 seasons, along with 9 straight years with at least 9 losses. And try only 1 cover since Sept 23rd, this season. These 2 have met 37 times as members of the Big West, Sun Belt, & WAC, the last in 12's 41-7 Utah State win (-30). Utah State has the bowl history edge. |
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12-29-17 | NC State v. Arizona State +7 | 52-31 | Loss | -130 | 69 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 'Devils are saying goodbye to HC Todd Graham, despite a pair of double digit win campaigns, & 5 bowls in his 6 years at the helm. However, he, along with his entire staff will be on the sidelines for this one. The Suns have covered 7 of their last 9 games, as QB Wilkins has thrown for 2,918 yards (64%) & 17/5, while RBs Richard & Ballage have combined for 1,634 yards. Note 297 rushing yards per game in their 4-game stretch run. However, the Arizona State run "D" ranks 83rd. But the dog is 8-3-1 ATS in Sun Devil games this year. TD spread is a bit much. |
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12-29-17 | Texas A&M v. Wake Forest -3 | Top | 52-55 | Push | 0 | 120 h 39 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Bowl Game of the Week For the Demon Deacons of Wake Forest, this marks just their 12th bowl game, the first coming in their 26-14 win over South Carolina, in the '46 Gator Bowl, & the latest, in last year's Military Bowl, when, as 11-pt underdogs vs Temple, they jumped to a 31-7 lead, holding on for the 34-26 win. That one was noteworthy for 2 reasons: the fact that the Owls entered on a 10-0 ATS run; & holding Temple to minus 20 RYs, (TU at 190 RYpg at game time). For Wake, back-to-back bowl seasons, on the heels of 8 straight losing campaigns, including 3-9 records in '14 & '15. They're led by QB Wolford, who ranks 10th in passing efficiency, throwing for 2,792 yards, 64%, & a sensational 25/6. In back-to-back-to-back games vs Louisville, NoDame & Syracuse, he threw for 1,155 yds, 69%, & 10/1, leading Wake to 143Â points, Oh, in that Syracuse game, Deacs turned a 17-pt second half deficit, into a 21-point win. So not much wrong with Deacs' 27th, ranked "O", nor a spread streak that now stands at 16-6-1. |
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12-28-17 | Michigan State v. Washington State +1 | 42-17 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quite a job that Mike Leach has done with the Cougars of Washington State, with this marking their 3rd straight bowl season, & 4th in the last 5 years. That may not seem all that impressive, especially in these recent "bowl-happy" times. But not only had they suffered through 9 straight bowl-less campaigns, but did it in style, with a 5-32 record in '08-'10. Just as he had done at Texas Tech, annually placing the Raiders among the top aerial squads, he had replicated it at Washington State, as the Coogs have ranked 9th, 4th, 1st, 1st, 2nd passing "O" under his tutelage. As usual, Leach has one of the top QBs in the nation, as Luke Falk has tossed for an incredible 12,627 yards & 106 TDs since taking over the reins from Halliday in '15. |
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12-28-17 | Stanford v. TCU -2.5 | 37-39 | Loss | -115 | 104 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Horned Frogs of TCU, just 5 winning seasons in a 31-year span ('66-'96), before the signing of Dennis Franchione in '98, followed by the acquisition of Gary Patterson in '00. Result: 15 bowl seasons in Patterson's 17 years at the helm ('14's 5-6, & '13's 4-8 campaigns), reaching double digit wins in 11 of those 17, finishing 3rd in the land with 14's 12-1 season, losing only to Baylor, in that epic 61-58 final, winding up with a 47-19 points per game edge. Right, they were "jobbed" out of the national title playoffs, proving it with a 42-3 win over Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl (423-129 yard edge). Oh, by the way, the arrival of a man named adainian Tomlinson, in '97, coincided with Tcu's upturn (4,132 RYs in '99 & '20). This is Tcu's 2nd Alamo Bowl in the last 3 years, with their previous trip resulting in the 2nd-largest comeback win in FBS history: turning a 31-0 halftime deficit vs Oregon, to take it, 47-41, in triple OT (+7). |
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12-28-17 | Virginia Tech v. Oklahoma State -4 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 100 h 29 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Bowl Game of the Day The Cowboys are an annual fixture among the elites, placing 9th in our "Polls" this year. The arrival of Mike Gundy in '05, has resulted in 12 straight bowl seasons, with at least 10 wins in 5 of the past 7 years, nearly meeting for the '11 national title game, before an impossible 37-31 loss to 26½ pt underdog on week #11 shattered that dream. They have been led by brilliant QB Rudolph (4,553 yards, 65%, & 35/9), who has thrown for 13,267 yards in his career, & 84/22 the past 3 years. But he isn't the only cog in this wheel, as Hill is at 1,347 RYs (14 TDs), & WRs Washington & Ateman have combined for 2,572 receiving yards, averaging 20.6 & 19.4 yards per catch. Oklahoma State ranks 3rd in scoring, 1st in passing, & 2nd in total "O". Can Tech's 5th & 10th ranked scoring & total "D" contain 'em. No way. |
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12-28-17 | Virginia v. Navy +1.5 | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 97 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Middies seemed on the verge of something special, with their 5-0 start. However, 2 of the 5 were won by just 2 & 3 points (5-7 Air Force, & 5-7 Tulane), & were followed by an unexpected 1-6 windup, again with 4 of the 6 losses coming by a TD or less, & all 6 vs bowl opponents. So, another bowl for the Middies', their 6th straight, & 14th in the past 15 years, missing only with '11's 5-7 mark. This is Niumatalolo's 10th year as Navy's HC, who stands at 4-4 SU, & 5-3 ATS in holiday events, including covering his last 4 bowls, although having to live with LY's 48-45 buzzer-beating loss to La Tech in Armed Forces Bowl, despite a 300-88 RY edge. Facing (& beating) triple-optioneering Georgia Tech has to help Virginia, but I am staying with the military here. |
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12-27-17 | Missouri v. Texas +3 | 16-33 | Win | 100 | 80 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ranking just 97th in rushing "O" (68, 42, 9 RYs vs USC, Oklahoma State, & TCU), Texas had to counter with the nation's 6th-ranked rushing "D", with DT Ford plugging the middle. QBs Ehlinger & Buechele have combined for 3,153 yds & 16 TDs. But when speaking of QBing, the Tigers own one of the premier signal callers in the land in he prolific Lock, who leads the land with 43 TD passes, the most-ever for a Mizzou QB, as well as the most-ever for any SEC QB, snapping Kentucky's Woodson's 40 in '07. The Tigers opened the lined season on an 0-5 run, along with a 210-92 pt deficit, before fattening up on the less than formidable six some of Idaho, UConn, Florida, Tennessee, Vandy, & Arkansas (combined 23-48 SU), with a 308-128 pt edge (+120 pts ATS). Mizzou ranks 13th in tackles for loss, but 1st in tackles for losses allowed. Which will prevail? Call 'Horns in nail biter |
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12-27-17 | Purdue v. Arizona -3 | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For Arizona, they live via the irrepressible Tate, who took the running QB label to a new level, as he leads the nation in rushing yards per carry, at a mind-boggling 10.2 yards per rush. Arizona ranks 3rd, 6th, & 12th in rushing, scoring, & total offense, but is among the worst teams in the land in containment (88th, 122nd, 105th, 117th in run, pass, scoring & total "D"). The last team with the ball may take it, so I'll go with the better "O" |
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12-27-17 | Boston College v. Iowa -2.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the Hawkeyes of Iowa, this one makes it their 31st bowl appearance. Over the past 3 seasons, they've gone a combined 27-12. This year, they are hardly an offensive powerhouse, finishing 109th in the land, despite their shocking 55-24 upset of Ohio State, with 243 rushing yards & 246 passing yards. This is Ferentz's 15th bowl as HC of the Hawkeyes, with a 6-8 SU record, as well as an 8-6 ATS mark. However, QB Stanley is the real deal, at 2,338 yards & 25 touchdowns with only 6 interceptions, with Wadley at 1,021 rushing yards. Should be a brutal contest. |
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12-27-17 | Southern Miss +17 v. Florida State | 13-42 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No, the Gods haven't been good to the Seminoles of Florida State this season, as they entered the year in the 2nd or 3rd spot in the preseason polls. But, it wasn't to be, as their season ended with a thud, when they lost their premier QB Francois (for the season) in their suicidal opener vs none other than Alabama. Certainly not the smartest of inaugurals. Thus, even with the return of 16 starters, his loss has been impossible to overcome, even though his replacement, Blackman, has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards (1,997, 57%, 15/11), with RBs Akers & Patrick a combined 1,670 yards. Check an 0-8-1 spread record, along with a 3-6 SU mark, before nailing necessary wins (2 covers), in routs of the mighty triad of Delaware, Florida (4-7), & Monroe (4-8). |
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12-26-17 | Kansas State -3 v. UCLA | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 57 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the Wildcats, this makes it 8 straight bowl years (2-5 both SU & ATS), winding up this season on a 4-1 SU run, including a pair of 4th-quarter double digit comeback wins over bowl-bound Texas Tech & Iowa State, marking the only time in school history to win 2 games in a season, when trailing by double digits in the 4th. So 19 bowls in Snyder's 26 years as Wildcat HC. Not one of his better outfits, ranking just 95th & 96th in total "O" & "D". Head-scratching, to be sure, just as the fact that the dog is on an 18-3-1 ATS run in Kansas State tilts. But check the Bruins are going it with an interim head coach and UCLA is currently on a 17-33 ATS run, & just 13 points from a 4-23 spread slide. |
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12-26-17 | Northern Illinois +5.5 v. Duke | 14-36 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating:Â 2 Units For the Huskies, this makes it 9 bowls in 10 years, missing only in last year's 5-7 mark, after opening at 0-4. This year's 8-4 record includes 48-17 & 63-17 outbursts vs Bowling Green & Ball State. However, it is NIU's "D" that is front-&-center, ranking 18th in total, & 10th vs the run, leading the nation in tackles for loss, & is 2nd in sacks. Duke counters with QB Jones' 2,439 yards (56%, but just 12/11), & a combined 1,403 rushing yards from Wilson & Brown. Check finals of 48-34, 52-48, 36-31, & 44-41 (OT) in Duke's recent bowl run. Should be wild. |
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12-26-17 | Utah v. West Virginia +7 | 30-14 | Loss | -113 | 50 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With Grier sidelined, redshirt sophomore Chris Chugunov started the Mountaineers’ regular-season finale against Oklahoma and went 10-of-20 for 137 yards in the 59-31 road loss, but the team made strong use of the Wildcat formation, featuring reserve tailback Kennedy McKoy who ran for a career-high 137 yards and three TDs in the contest. White is the top offensive play-maker after combining for 212 receptions, 2,988 yards and 30 receiving TDs. Defensively, senior linebacker Al-Rasheed Benton led the way with 102 total tackles, including 13 for losses, but the Mountaineers struggled for the most part, allowing 31.6 points (92nd nationally) and 452.5 yards (110th) per game. |
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12-25-17 | Raiders v. Eagles -10 | 10-19 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Last of our 3 Super Bowl rematches (SB XV: 27-10 Raiders). If you discount the Donovan McNabb era, the Eagles have won exactly two playoff games since the Raiders destroyed the birds. For Philly, Foles is doing it again, clicking on 24-of-38 for 237 yards & 4 TDs (no picks). Have to hand it to this franchise for getting him back, but that "D" has allowed 29.3 points per game the last 3 weeks. Raiders are on a 1-7-2 ATS run on the road, & have topped 17 points in only 4 of their last 12 games. Eagles soar again. |
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12-25-17 | Steelers v. Texans +9 | 34-6 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Steelers in off sickening loss to the Patriots, on a TD reversal in the closing seconds. Now they know, in all likelihood, that they'll have to travel to New England to get to the Super Bowl. Not only that, but the status of Brown's torn calf is beyond crucial. Another fine performance from Ben: 22-of-30 for 281 yards & 2 TDs, but killed by that end zone pick in the closing seconds. Texans have a 192-104 pt deficit since Watson went out, & Savage is doubtful. Pitt is 1-6 ATS as a chalk of more than 7 points this season |
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12-24-17 | Houston v. Fresno State +2 | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Well, it didn't take the Bulldogs of Fresno State long to right their ship, after last season's 1-11 debacle (0-10 windup), by hiring Jeff Tedford, who served as OC for Washington. This is not his first rodeo, either. He was HC of California from '02-'12, taking the Bears to bowls in 7 of this first 8 years, after inheriting a team fresh off a 1-10 campaign. Such a turnaround came with being named as Pac10 Coach of the Year in both '02, & '04. He has again worked his magic, this time by turning last year's 1-11 Fresno squad, into the above 9-4 log |
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12-24-17 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -4.5 | 21-12 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units He's back. The Cowboys have turned it all around, with 3 straight wins (+42½ pts ATS), following their futility in their first 3 games without Elliott (7, 9, 6 pts), thereby keeping their postseason dreams alive & well. Remember, they covered their last HG by 24 pts. Seahawks are in off their worst loss in Pete Carroll's eight seasons. Completely dominated from the opening whistle vs the Rams. Wilson: just 14-of-30, with 7 sacks. The 'Boys are 8-1 ATS off a pair of wins vs a non-division opponent. It's Dallas. |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars -4 v. 49ers | 33-44 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jags in off their 7th win in last 8 outings, thereby clinching a post-season spot for the first time since 2007. They were an NFL-worst 22-74 over the previous 6 years. Check Bortles with a season-high 326 yards & the best QB rating (143.6) of his career, in rout of the Texans. He is 7/0 over the last 3 years. And note the Jaguar "D" holding 8 foes to 10 points or less. Three straight wins for the Niners, but just 1 TD (6 FGs) in win over the Titans. Garoppolo a career-high 381 yards. But going gets tougher |
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12-24-17 | Lions -3 v. Bengals | 17-26 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Well, that's it for Marvin Lewis. He never won a playoff game, as this year's Cincy squad is sinking fast, with 33-7, 34-7 losses in their last 2 games. Dalton last week: 11-of-22 for 113 yards. Bengals didn't cross midfield vs Minny until the final 3 minutes of the 3rd. Lions need 'em all to have a shot at landing a Wild Card slot. No TOs for Stafford in win over the Bears He has thrown for 3,920 yards, along with 25 TDs, & only 9 picks, & the chalk is on a 7-0-2 ATS run in Detroit games. No other way here. |
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12-24-17 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -10 | 13-29 | Win | 100 | 1 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let's see. A division sandwich for both teams (Buffalo sandwich for Dolphins). The Chiefs have shaken their previous trend in which the visitor was king, as the host is now on a 7-1 ATS run in KC games. They seem to have recaptured their early season brilliance (5-0 start), & have now taken control of the AFC West with LW's convincing rout of the red hot Chargers. Smith: another 2/0, so now at superb 25/5, while Hunt chipped in with 155 yards. Miami has a 144-54 pt deficit in its last 4 RGs. It continues. |
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12-23-17 | Appalachian State v. Toledo -7.5 | 34-0 | Loss | -105 | 146 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Just 2 setbacks for Toledo, who are led by a triad of quality performers: QB Woodside, who has 3,758 passing yards, 65%, & 28/5; RB Swanson: 1,319 yards, & 14 TDs; WR Johnson: 1,257 yards, & 13 TDs. At season's end Toledo was smoking. Recall leading Akron 38-0, in the dying seconds of the 3rd, in Rockets' 45-28 win in the MAC title game. Toledo is at 39.4 points per game in 5 of its 6 bowl games since '10. Have to see revenge playing an important factor in this. |
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12-23-17 | Army v. San Diego State -6.5 | 42-35 | Loss | -115 | 142 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Competitive is Army's middle name, with 2 of their 3 setbacks coming by just 4 & 3 points, although 5 of their wins came by only 4, 1, 5, 5, & 1 pt. In this one, their overland game will be put to the supreme test as San Diego State ranks 8th the land in containing the run, as well as 16th & 11th in scoring & total defense. They've out rushed their last 4 opponents, 1,442-182, including holding New Mexico's 250 rushing yards per game offense to 82 yards. And, when they are on the attack, they own the nation's top rusher, with Penny's 2,027 yards (19 TDs), on heels of last year's 1,018 yards, as 2nd banana to Pumphrey, who led the land in '16, with 2,133 rushing yards. Thus, military schools do not have a monopoly on the running game, especially vs the likes of this Aztec squad. And check QB Chapman at 1,848 passing yards. |
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12-23-17 | Texas Tech v. South Florida -2.5 | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 139 h 41 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Bowl Game of the Week There has only bee two teams that have outplayed every one of their opponents this season, the mighty Sooners of Oklahoma, & the unnoticed Bulls of South Florida. So, moving the ball has hardly been a problem, especially since the prolific Quinton Flowers took over the leadership role in '15. He has amassed 11,201 yards the past 3 years, with USF compiling a 28-9 SU record, while gracing the Miami Beach & Birmingham Bowls, prior to this year's defense of the latter bowl. His worth is nearly impossible to overstate. Just check USF's season finale game with a perfect Central Florida, where he piled up 503 passing yards with 4 touchdowns and 1 interception along with 102 rushing yards, tying it on an 83-yard TD pass in the final 1:41, only to lose on a TD return of the ensuing KO. This marks the Bulls' 3rd straight bowl game, & 9th in the last 13 years. The line on this one is a bit perplexing, as the balanced attack of the Bulls seems to more than counter Tech's one-dimensional offense |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan v. Wyoming | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 143 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Last year, the 'Boys (+10) staged a comeback in the Poinsettia Bowl, vs Byu, turning a 24-7 deficit with 7:40 left, into a 24-21 loss, thanks to a pair of late TD passes from Allen. They entered that contest with an 8-4 SU record, while on a 7-2 ATS run. Similarities galore, as they stand at an exact same 8-4 SU, while currently on a 7-2 ATS streak, losing SU, as 19-pt favorites, to 2-11 San Jose. They live via the turnover (+19: 2nd best in the land), on the arm of Allen. Site favors Wyoming, which has done itself proud the past 2 years. |
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12-22-17 | UAB +8 v. Ohio | 6-41 | Loss | -115 | 139 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In '14, the school higher-ups crunched the numbers, deciding that football was just too expensive to maintain at UAB. Thankfully, they've done an about turn, while miraculously, making it to a bowl in their first year back. No, the Blazers haven't turned into world beaters, but have, unbelievably, made it to a bowl. Many experts pegged them as doormats, but they've posted 8 wins, comfortably gaining bowl eligibility in just their 9th game. Their schedule is rife with nail biters, with wins of 7, 1, 2, & 5 points, along with losses of 4 & 1 pt. Junior QB Erdely is their trigger, throwing for 2,077 yards, 62%, & 16/4, while running for 289 yards. And RB Brown: 1,292 yards & 10 TDs. Lean to the Dog in this one. |
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12-21-17 | Temple v. Florida International +7.5 | 28-3 | Loss | -125 | 123 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Panthers of Florida International, this marks just their 3rd bowl in school history, while their 8-4 record matches their best ever. Butch Davis took over the reins following 5 straight losing years, on the heels of back-to-back bowls in '10 & '11. Much like the Owls, FIU topped the 17-pt mark in just 1 of its first 4 games, before turning it around, averaging 39.8 ppg in 5 of its final 6 outings, behind QB McGough: 2,791 yds, 65%, 17/8. Note that the dog has covered 8 of FIU's last 10 games. We'll try it once more. |
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12-20-17 | Louisiana Tech v. SMU -4 | 51-10 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mustangs of SMU, is in their first bowl under HC Morris, as their steady rise continues on schedule: 2-10, to 5-7, to 7-5. Led by QB Hicks, they are one of only two teams in the nation with a 3,000 yard passer, a 1,000 yard rusher (Jones), & two 1,000 yard receivers (Sutton & Quinn). This offense has now topped 36 points in 14 of its last 17 games. |
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12-19-17 | Akron v. Florida Atlantic -22.5 | 3-50 | Win | 100 | 97 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This season, has seen Akron with a 6-2 regular season SU windup, thus making it into the MAC title game, despite ranking a lowly 118th in both rushing & total "O". Defensively? Try 97th. Not the case with the Owls, & head coach Lane Kiffin, who covered 7-of-9 down the stretch, while averaging 46.3 ppg in their last 9 outings, including that 41-17 rout of NoTexas in the Conference USA title game (12½ pt cover), with a 281-81 RY edge. Thus, FAU ranks 8th, 6th, & 13th in scoring, rushing, & total "O". They are led by the indomitable Singletary (CUSA's MVP) who has run for 1,976 yds & 29 TDs, while breaking 7 Owl single-season marks. Remember, the Zips trailed Toledo, 38-0, in the final seconds of the 3rd in their MAC title match with Toledo, before the Rockets called off the dogs. Whatever FAU wants this to be |
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12-17-17 | Cowboys -3 v. Raiders | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these squads are fighting for their playoff lives. Dak was splendid in the 'Boys' rout of the Giants. He was 20-of-30, for 332 yards with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions and Dallas is a game back in Wild Card chase. Ditto the Raiders, who are a game behind both the Chiefs & Chargers in the AFC West. Oakland was held scoreless until the final 9 minutes of their 26-15 loss to KC (140-yard deficit). |
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12-17-17 | Titans +3 v. 49ers | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 2nd of 3 straight out of conference games for both of these squads. Titans in off holding the Cards without a TD, but still losing. Now find themselves looking up at the Jags in the NFC South, with Mariota tossing more picks than TDs this year (10/14). He was 6-of-16 for 60 yards & 2 picks in the 2nd half of that one. It wasn't all bad for the Titans, as their "D" had 8 sacks vs the Cards. This is a must win for the Titans |
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12-17-17 | Rams v. Seahawks -1 | 42-7 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This one has huge implications on the NFL West. Last week, after a horrific 3 quarters, Seattle's Wilson again showed his magic in the 4th, with TD tosses of 61 & 74 yards. However, it wasn't enough to stop the up-&-coming Jags, as his 3 picks eventually did them in. Only the 3rd time in his career that has happened. Last week, the Rams put quite a beating on Wentz, in that loss to Philly, even before they knocked him out of the game. Goff: only 199 yards |
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12-17-17 | Bengals v. Vikings -12 | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bengals face their former defensive coordinator, Mike Zimmer, here. Dalton is off a horrible 141 passing yards (1/1), in their embarrassing loss to the 3-win Bears, being more than doubled in first downs & total yards. Cincinnati's worst home drubbing since a 34-3 loss to Baltimore in '08. Minnesota's 8-game winning streak is history, although the Vikings did come back from an 11-point 4th quarter deficit. Minnesota defense has held 8 of its last 11 foes under 18 points. |
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12-17-17 | Ravens -6.5 v. Browns | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sure, we all know that the Ravens are normally a defensive force (7th in the NFL), but they've sure opened up that offense over the past couple of months, with a 189-98 point edge in their last 6 games. So 38 points & 414 yards vs the Steelers' 3rd-ranked offense, in last week's 39-38 crusher. Can things get any worse for the Browns, who blew a 2-TD 2nd half lead over the Packers, losing in OT? Kizer: 3 TD passes, but a killer OT pick. Cleveland is 3-8 ATS as a home dog of more than 3½ points, & is averaging 11.6 points per game in their last 5 home games |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a game for a national TV audience. The top spot in the NFL West is on the line. Total domination for the red hot Chargers, in their rout of the 'Skins: 24-9 first downs, 174-65 rushing yards, & 488-201 total yard edges. So 4 straight wins for the Bolts, with a 151-53 point edge. Rivers: another 319 passing yards (2 TDs: now 23/7), passing Warren Moon for 9th place on the all-time NFL passing yard list. KC in off snapping 4-game slide. In their last 15 AFC West games, the Chiefs have won 14. But an L.A. call here. |
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12-16-17 | Middle Tennessee State +3.5 v. Arkansas State | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the Middle Tennessee State Raiders, this one marks the 7th bowl game in HC Stockstill's era (6 in last 9 yrs), & 3rd straight ('15 Bahamas & 16's Hawaii: 45-31 & 52-35 losses: -9½ & -23 pt losses). They got here, thanks to a 3-1 windup (lone loss in OT), both SU & ATS, with a combined 115-75 pt edge. However, note that those four represent the return of QB Stockstill, after missing 6 games (shoulder injury), as he is the heart of this program, altho Urzua filled in capably during his absence. In those bowl losses, the past 2 years, he has thrown for 759 yds & 7 TDs (3 picks). His return has been an elixir, so we back the squad which finished on a positive note. |
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12-16-17 | Marshall v. Colorado State -3.5 | 31-28 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the Rams of Colorado State, this marks their 5th consecutive bowl season, which matches the longest such streak in school history (2-3 both SU & ATS from '99 thru '03). Currently, HC Bobo is the only coach in Ram history, to reach a bowl game in each of his first 3 seasons, with 3 of his first 4 resulting in 48-45, 28-23, & 61-50 finals. By the way, that 48-45 win in the '13 New Mexico Bowl represented one of the greatest comebacks in both CSt & bowl history, as the Rams overcame 22-pt deficit, scoring 11 pts in the last 33 seconds (FG at the gun). |
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12-16-17 | Oregon -7 v. Boise State | 28-38 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hebert's return has Oregon with a 117-38 pt edge the L2 games (+51 pts ATS). So OU is at 52.4 ppg with Herbert under center. RB Freeman just continues on (1,475 yds & 16 TDs), with the 'Ducks ranking 8th in overland production. A dangerous team, to be sure. For the Broncos of Boise State, this makes it 16 straight bowl years. Although not as overwhelming as some seasons, this is nonetheless their 15th double digit win campaign in the last 19 years. Rypien is a steadying hand at QB (63.5% & 14/4), while the Broncos come in at 22nd in total "D". However, their leading rusher, Mattison, is questionable, with an ankle injury, which can't help. |
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12-16-17 | Georgia State v. Western Kentucky -6.5 | 27-17 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Panthers of Georgia State entered this season with a combined 11-49 SU log over the previous 5 seasons, altho they did make it to this bowl with '15's 6-6 regular season record (3-9 LY). But 16 returning starters, including QB Connor, has them here, with a 6-5 record. However, those 6 wins came at the expense of squads with a combined log of 16-56. Panthers rank 117th in both scoring & rushing "O", so not much help for Connor |
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12-16-17 | North Texas v. Troy -7 | 30-50 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There is a huge gap on "O" as leading RB W lson (1,215 yards, 6.5 ypr, 16 TDs) is highly doubtful, after sustaining an ankle injury in a 52-49 win (FG in L 0:05) over Army, despite a 534-103 RY deficit (Fine: 4 TD passes). LY, the Green (+10½) lost 38-31 in OT to Army in the Heart of Dallas bowl. Trojans enter on a 6-game winning streak, making it to this bowl for the 3rd time in 10 years, & they've taken the measure of the Green in 7 of their last 8 meetings since '05. The deciding factor here, has to be the loss of Wilson |
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12-11-17 | Patriots -10 v. Dolphins | 20-27 | Loss | -117 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In both '13 & '15, Pats lost here late in the year, to relinquish home field to the Broncos. Both of those seasons ended with the Patriots losing the AFC title game in Mile High. Will history repeat, as they battle Steelers for home field advantage? Nope. Eight straight wins for New England, holding all 8 opponents below 18 pts. Contrast that to Miami in off snapping 5-game losing streak (allowing 34.2 ppg in that run). Pats took Dolphins, 35-14 here last year, as well as winning 35-17 in their earlier '17 meeting. Once again. |
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12-10-17 | Ravens v. Steelers -4.5 | 38-39 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a great series this has been in the 21st century, having played some classic battles, both in the regular season, & in the playoffs. The Ravens live via their defense (7th), & the TO (1st at +14), as their offense ranks ahead of only Tampa in the NFL. Check a point edge of 150-59 in their last 5 games, with Flacco finally even in TD/INT ratio (11/11). The Steelers are in off their Monday battle with the Bengals, & are the match for Ravens' "D" (4th) but also coming in at 7th on "O". Forget revenge factor. |
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12-10-17 | Jets -1 v. Broncos | 0-23 | Loss | -117 | 29 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It just continues to amaze. How the Broncos could come from Super Bowl winners, to their current state is nearly impossible to grasp. An absolutely astounding 0-8 SU & ATS slide with a deficit of 241-108 points. I keep rewriting it, but it just extends their worst run in 50 years. Last week, they managed 9 points vs a Dolphin team that gave up 205 points in their prior 6 games (34.2 ppg). A 3-game stranglehold on the cellar of the AFC West. The Jets are in off posting 30 first downs & a time edge of 42:49-17:11 in win over Kansas City |
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12-10-17 | Vikings -2.5 v. Panthers | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These 2 might end up playing each other in January. This is the last of a brutal 3-game road trip for Minnesota, who just keep on winning, with their current SU run now at 8-0, with accompanying 7-1 ATS mark (only miss by ½ pt). Keenum in off yet another fine performance: 25-of-30, in throttling of the Falcons, allowing no touchdowns. Panthers covered their last home game by 16 points, but note the visitor is on an 11-4 ATS run in Carolina games |
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12-10-17 | Packers -3 v. Browns | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Another one of those "old school" classic NFL match ups: Brown, Hornung, Lombardi, etc. Well, you might know. Just 10 points for the Browns at the Chargers, but still managed to cover (to our dismay) a 2-touchdown spot vs a team which had scored 82 points in its previous 2 outings. Two more turnovers, so Cleveland leads the NFL (-19) in the all-important category. |
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12-10-17 | Cowboys v. Giants +4 | 30-10 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Hard to believe that this one may end up being meaningless in the NFC playoff race (notice time change). Will Eli get the start, after seeing his streak of 210 games end last week, to Geno Smith, of all people. Cowboys got their first win without Zeke on Thursday night behind Morris' 127 RYs, & Dak got his first TD pass since Nov 5th, but still just 102 passing yards. And Dez broke Bob Hayes' club record for TD grabs (74). Dallas is 3-11 ATS as a division road favorite off a double digit SU win, vs an opponent off a SU setback |
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12-09-17 | Army +3 v. Navy | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units As we have noted these past recent years, moving this classic meeting to this date, has been a stroke of genius, thereby according these combatants the proper respect & attention that they so richly deserve, especially after being pretty much ignored, as just another contest on the weekly slate. The Middies owned the Cadets, with their last loss in this rivalry coming on Dec 1, 2001. But Army snapped that 14-game losing skein to Navy, with LY's dominating 21-17 win, as 5½ pt dogs. Right, "dominating" may not seem the proper descriptive of a 4-pt edge, but check Knights' 316-112 RY edge, as well as a 40:32-19:28 time edge. This year, they rank 1st & 2nd in the land in rushing offense. Against AF, Army won 21-0, with a 392-95 RY edge, while Navy won 48-45, with a 471-340 RY edge. Army is 5-1 ATS vs Mids of late |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +1 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is the beginning of some huge match ups in the NFL this weekend. Back in the '90's, taking the road team in this series was gold. Falcons came from averaging 33 points per game in previous 3 outings, to just 3 field goals in 14-9 loss to Minnesota. First time since in 2 years that the Falcons went without a TD, & Ryan's 30-game run with at least 1 TD pass, is now history. Saints 1-game up on Carolina, with last weeks balanced win (Ingram & Kamara: 145 rushing yards). So New Orleans is now at 31.2 points per game in their last 10 games. |
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12-02-17 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin +7 | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units As usual, the Buckeyes of Ohio State have been in the mix for the collegiate playoff for just about the entire season, that is, until their 55-24 loss to Iowa, a 49-point ATS loss. So 2 losses & now 8th in the national polls. Despite that, can't help but note that they rank 5th & 4th in scoring & total offense, as well as 20th & 8th in scoring & total defense. No doubt still an obvious force, especially with Meyer on the sidelines. But the 2nd-ranked Badgers just win (11-0). Are 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 1st in run, pass, scoring, total defense, with solid combination in their backfield: seasoned QB in Hornibrook & nation's 3rd ranked rusher, in frosh Taylor. |
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12-02-17 | Miami-FL v. Clemson -9.5 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 70 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sure, the defending national champs aren't on the same page as last year's edition, offensively, that is. After all, there is only one Deshaun Watson (just ask the Houston Texans). However, defensively, they have few, if any, peers. A week ago, for example, it seemed as if the entire football world was on South Carolina, as a home dog vs CU. Result: 34-10 Tiger win, with a 27-10 first down edge. The 'Canes came crashing down in last weeks shocking loss to Pitt & its 86th ranked defense, managing a mere 14 first downs & 45 rushing yards. Miami has been streaky all season (+52 points ATS previous 2, but -26 points ATS last 2). Tigers! |
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12-02-17 | Memphis v. Central Florida -7 | 55-62 | Push | 0 | 62 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Match of the nation's top 2 scoring teams. The Tigers of Memphis did about as expected in last week's 70-13 destruction of East Carolina's sieve defense, with nearly a 300-yard edge. Memphis, behind QB Ferguson, is averaging 44.2 points per game in its last 5 outings, thus, the Tigers are the real deal. Only 1 loss. Right, that setback came at the hands of this week's opponent, in that 40-13 final in Sept. I've been on the undefeated Knights since the season's beginning, reaping a nice reward, and I'm not about to change. |
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12-01-17 | Stanford +4 v. USC | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 46 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Second meeting for these 2 annual giants, with Trojans dominating first match, with over 300 yards in both rushing & passing. However, that meeting occurred in week 2, before Cards got in groove, while Troy followed with 6 straight ATS losses, with QB Darnold out of sync. But a solid windup, before squeaking past defenseless Ucla. Love is #2 in the land in rushing (168 yards per game; 8.6 yards per rush). Pac-12 North is 6-0 in title games. |
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11-30-17 | Redskins -1.5 v. Cowboys | 14-38 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the 13th straight year, the NFC East will not have a repeat champion, which is truly amazing. Guess McNabb wasn't so bad after all. Third straight home game for the 'Boys, but little seems to matter, as this team has lost its last 3 games, by a combined score of 90-22 (-61 points ATS) with just 1 touchdown in its last 11 quarters. Check Dak with 5 picks in last 2 games. He threw only 4 a year ago. Another? Okay. Outscored 72-6 in 2nd half of those 3. Redskins a dangerous team, holding Giants to 7 first downs last week. I cannot back "Big D" |
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11-26-17 | Jaguars -5 v. Cardinals | 24-27 | Loss | -115 | 75 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Visitor continues to shine in Jag games, covering 7-of-8. Gift cover for Jacksonville at Cleveland, on a recovered end zone fumble in final 1:14. Fourth straight win for Jags, in sole possession of first place in AFC South, holding 6 opponents to 7 points or less. So lead division after 10 games, for 1st time since 1999. And 5 more takeaways for league's top ranked defense. Check Cards' Gabbert with 257 passing yards and career-high 3 touchdowns in his first start of the season. However, Arizona is allowing 30 points per game in their 6 underdog roles this year |
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11-26-17 | Seahawks -6.5 v. 49ers | 24-13 | Win | 100 | 69 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hard to believe that only 3 years ago, this may have been the best rivalry in the league. Just goes to show you what a great coach Jim Harbaugh is. For the Niners, the slump is over. They have won. Should have happened weeks ago, but it was nice to see Kyle Shanahan get his first W. Note that Goodwin's 83-yd catch was the longest touchdown for the 49ers, since Kaepernick's 90-yard run 4 years ago. San Francisco is 2-10 ATS vs Seattle, as well as 0-5 ATS off its bye |
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11-26-17 | Bears v. Eagles -13.5 | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A Dallas/Seattle sandwich for the Eagles. But does it matter? Are now on an 8-0 SU run, as well as a 7-0 ATS skein. A week ago, it was simply stunning how Philly turned a brutal first half war (9-7 deficit) into a 37-9 blowout. Averaging 32 points per game, with Wentz at a brilliant 25 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions. And how about its top-ranked run defense? One of Fox's greatest moments came here in the '03 NFC Title game, when his Panthers upset Reid's Eagles. Bears on 4-1-1 ATS run, but can they slow down the Eagles? Until it changes I say "No"! |
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11-26-17 | Bucs v. Falcons -9.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 66 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Finally a road win for the Bucs, who had dropped 6 straight as visitors, although their win over Miami's feeble offense (#31) saw Tampa with a 448-321 yard deficit (5-0 turn over edge). And before that one, note that the Bucs had allowed 34, 38, 30, & 30 points in the visiting role. So now must go it vs last years NFC champs. The Falcons entered their Monday Nighter with the Seahawks on a 1-5 ATS slide, as well as a 2-4 SU run. But Atlanta is 8-1 ATS off Monday games, & Quinn is 8-2 ATS off non-division, vs opponent off a road game. |
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11-26-17 | Bills v. Chiefs -9.5 | 16-10 | Loss | -105 | 66 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Many heavy favorites this week. Bills' QB change really worked. Five 1st half picks for Peterman on only 12 passes. Three straight losses for the Bills, who entered with the best turn over ratio in the NFL (+11), before 6-0 deficit vs the Chargers. The Bills' worst defensive half since 1977. Four losses in five games for the Chiefs, with no touchdowns in windswept loss to then 1-8 Giants. However, Kansas City is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs AFC East |
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11-25-17 | Northwestern -16.5 v. Illinois | Top | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 91 h 52 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week Six straight wins for the 'Cats, while on an 8-1 ATS run. Check a 32-point cover at always dangerous Minnesota, doubling Gopher yardage output, & registering 5 take aways. On 16-5-1 spread run. Illinois in off 3-point cover at Ohio State, despite a 438-yard deficit, & 5 first downs. Nine straight losses |
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11-25-17 | Boise State -7 v. Fresno State | 17-28 | Loss | -115 | 90 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Four straight covers for Broncos, & 6-of-7. Have held 6-of-9 opponents to less than 15 points, while Rypien is now 14 touchdown with only 4 interceptions. Of course, the visitor is now 23-5 ATS in Boise games. Bulldogs held Wyoming scoreless until L2:25, ranking 12th in both scoring & total defense. But lost L2 home games by 36 points ATS. |
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11-25-17 | Florida Atlantic -21.5 v. Charlotte | 31-12 | Loss | -110 | 88 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Florida Atlantic is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. While Charlotte 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. |
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11-25-17 | UTEP v. UAB -20 | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 87 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units he UAB Blazers are 5-0 at home this season, 5-2 against conference opponents and 2-2 against non-conference opponents. At home the Blazers are averaging 33.6 scoring. The Texas El Paso Miners are 0-6 while on the road this season, 0-7 against conference opponents and 0-4 against non-conference opponents. On the road, the Miners are averaging 9.2 scoring, and holding teams to 38.5 points scored on defense. |
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11-24-17 | Missouri -10 v. Arkansas | Top | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 30 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Game of the Week Right, Hogs put it to us in narrow loss to Mississippi State, despite a 195-97 rushing yard deficit. But have ceded 38.4 points per game in their last 10 underdog roles. Tigers smoking, with 5 straight wins & 7 straight covers: 260-83 point edge in their L5 games (+126 points ATS). And QB Luck is stratospheric 38 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. Lay it. |
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11-24-17 | Navy +4.5 v. Houston | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Middies in off crushing loss to Notre Dame, as 17-10 lead evolved into 24-27 loss, despite a 277-163 rushing yard edge vs Irish, who entered with a 304-142 rushing yard per game edge. Houston allowing 31.6 points per game in their L5 tilts, losing to Tulane on 64-yard pass in L 6:13. Visitor is now 12-2 ATS in Navy contests |
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11-23-17 | Giants v. Redskins -7 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Do the Giants own the AFC West elites, coming off their bye weeks, or not? First they took the Broncos, & now the first place Chiefs, picking Smith off twice, while holding him without a touchdown. He entered at a superb 18 touchdowns with only 1 interception, by the way. The end of the Saint/Skin game was very similar to the end of this past Super Bowl? Cousins was 22-of-32 for 322 yards & 3 touchdowns, only to see Washington's 31-16 lead with 3:00 left turn into an overtime loss. Washington 8-1 ATS as NFC favorite of more than 4 points coming off of 2 losses. |
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11-20-17 | Falcons +3 v. Seahawks | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is the moment that this Falcon team has been awaiting. Remember last year's game here, when they didn't call that obvious pass interference, in the final 1:30, when Sherman or Thomas just tackled Julio Jones? But "Legion of Boom" could be without both of these stars vs this dangerous team. Eight sacks vs Dallas, their most since 9 on 10/2/05 vs Minnesota. Seattle's defense shut down Peterson on Thursday, with Wilson 22-of-32 for 238 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions (now 19/6). Atlanta is 9-1 ATS as a road dog off allowing under 8 points, while Seattle is 1-5 ATS off a Thursday game, & also 1-5 ATS vs the NFC South. |
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11-19-17 | Eagles -5 v. Cowboys | 37-9 | Win | 100 | 31 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wow, these Eagles just keep on doing it. In off their bye. Have outscored opponents, 64-12, in the 1st quarter this year. Check their current 7-0 SU run, covering their last 6 by 64½ points. Wentz, of course, is their trigger, throwing for 23 touchdowns, with only 5 picks. Four touchdown passes vs the Broncos. And get this: he has three 4-touchdown performances in the last 5 weeks. And toss in the fact that Philly ranks #1 in rushing defense. The Cowboys are without "Zeke", although Dak has 25 touchdowns in 50 games, the 2nd fastest to get there, behind only Dan Marino. But this one is an Eagle call. |
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11-19-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Vikings | 7-24 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These two could end up playing each other again in January. Rams have won 3 games by 30+ points. In their previous 213 games, they did it 3 times. And this season, they've scored 40+ points 3 times. In their previous 161 games, they managed that just 3 times. So 4 straight wins, & covers, including +42½ points ATS in their last 2 road games. Check Goff with 355 passing yards & 3 touchdowns. Five straight wins for Minnesota (Keenum: 304 passing yards & 4 touchdowns vs Washington). Rams are 12-1 ATS vs .500+ favorites vs an opponent who is off 2+ SU wins. |
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11-19-17 | Redskins v. Saints -7.5 | 31-34 | Loss | -111 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units About time that I stopped going against the Saints, who've won 7 straight games, covering 6 (+104 points ATS). Check averaging 35 points per game in their last 5 contests, while holding 5-of-7 opponents to 13 points or less. Ingram is in off a career-best 3 touchdowns, & 131 rushing yards, with New Orleans finishing with 298 rushing yards & 32 first downs. Right, they never punted in rout of the Bills, scoring 5 times in their first 6 possessions. Redskins have dropped 5-of-6 vs the points, although Cousins had 327 passing yards & 3 touchdowns vs Minnesota, 2 rushing & 1 passing. And they have the Giants & Cowboys on deck. I jump on this rolling train. |
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11-19-17 | Chiefs -10 v. Giants | 9-12 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating:Â 2 Units Well, the visiting streak in Giant games is now by the boards, after NY was done in at San Francisco (Niners' first win). But the other side of that trend is the Giants losing at home (by 30 points ATS hosting the Rams just 2 weeks back). Last week, Eli tied brother Peyton, for the most consecutive starts, with 208. And Manning an efficient 28-of-37, along with 2 touchdown passes, so he now has 14 touchdowns with 6 interceptions for the year. But NY's 30th-ranked defense has now allowed 106 points in its 3-game slide. KC's Smith finally threw his first pick of the year (18 touchdowns with only the 1 interception). Chiefs rested off 1-3 slide, after 5-0 start. Lay it. |
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11-19-17 | Jaguars -7.5 v. Browns | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Browns' woes continue. Led the Lions, 10-0, early in the game, for their first double-digit lead of the season, but it wasn't to be as Detroit pulled away with 21-0 windup on 3 Stafford touchdown passes. But note Cleveland with a 28-16 first down edge, with 201 rushing yards, and a 34:34-25:26 time edge. Kizer: 232 passing yards with a touchdown and an interception. Jacksonville's Marrone lost here as HC of the Bills in '13, 37-24. Three straight wins for "Sacksonville", on tipped OT FG vs the Chargers, although no touchdowns for Fournette (1st time this year). The Jags are 8-1 ATS vs the AFC North, while the Browns' Jackson is 3-7 ATS as a home dog of 4 or more points. |
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11-18-17 | Air Force +17.5 v. Boise State | 19-44 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miracle cover for Broncos last week, who clicked on 2 Rypien touchdown passes in final 1:41, sending it into OT, for a 59-52 win, as 6½ point favorites. Whew! Home now 4-23 ATS in Boise State games. Falcons in their last 4 games: 45, 45, 0, & 14 points, but the dog is 16-1 ATS in Air Force contests. No other way to go in this one. Take the points. |
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11-18-17 | Missouri -8.5 v. Vanderbilt | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 75 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating:Â 2 Units Amazing turnaround for Tigers, who have not only covered 6 straight, but who turned 5-game losing streak, into 4 game winning run, averaging 53.3 points per game! Vanderbilt allowing 46.2 points per game in its 6 losses. |
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11-18-17 | NC State v. Wake Forest -1.5 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 75 h 52 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit ACC Game of the Week Deacons something else, with a 734-621 yard edge over Syracuse, with a 43-5 point windup. Wolford last two weeks: 694 passing yards. The dog is 6-2-1 ATS in Wolfpack games this year, but note a 778-424 rushing yard deficit the past 3 weeks. Finley now 15 touchdowns with 4 interceptions, but can't ignore host owning this series. |
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11-18-17 | Nebraska v. Penn State -26 | Top | 44-56 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 34 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week Lions seemed to shake off woes of incredible losses to Ohio State & Michigan State, with 35-6 romp of Rutgers, but note just 304 yards, with Bradley now at 33rd in the land in rushing. 'Huskers a 340-rushing yard deficit in 54-21 loss to Minnesota. And note allowing 43.7 points per game in last 9 underdog roles |
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