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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-14-23 | Indiana v. Michigan -32.5 | 7-52 | Win | 100 | 66 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Michigan is 5-0 ATS record at home off consecutive road games, and a near perfect 8-1 ATS success off a road win. Indiana has won only 8 of its last 21 games under soon-to-be-fired head coach Tom Allen and despite the exorbitant spread on today’s game, we can’t back a squad that’s gone 1-7 ATS in their last eight tries as a road dog. |
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10-14-23 | Syracuse +18 v. Florida State | 3-41 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Syracuse is 6-1 ATS in the last seven away versus an undefeated conference opponent, and the series visitor has cashed four of the last six tickets. Yes, FSU’s offense is scary as hell, but the garnet-and-gold is just 2-7 ATS off a win versus a foe off a loss and 2-5 ATS in the second of 3 straight homers. They’re also just 3-2 ITS (In The Stats) behind a defense that surrenders 364 YPG. Finally, the Syracuse HC is 15-6 ATS away in his career against opponents coming off a win, including 5-0 ATS with revenge against foes coming off a win of 20+ points. |
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10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs -10 | 8-19 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let’s face it: the Broncos' defense is literally nonexistent at this point of the season. In the last two weeks, they surrendered 28 points to the Bears and 31 to the Jets, a pair of teams that no one was going to confuse with a top-five offense in the league. Facing a Kansas City team that hasn’t necessarily hit their stride offensively is going to be a tough hill for the Broncos to climb. The Chiefs have performed well defensively, though they admittedly haven’t faced a Murderer’s Row of offenses to this point of the season. Denver’s last win against the Chiefs came back in September 2015 and they haven’t held Kansas City under 22 points in any of the games in this 15-game skid. Since Denver’s defense is so leaky right now, you have to think that Kansas City rolls up 30-plus points here to earn a home victory, extending their dominance in the series. |
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10-12-23 | West Virginia v. Houston +3 | 39-41 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units West Virginia has been out-yarded in its last two victories, both as underdogs, so taking them as road chalk seems like a stretch. Almost Heaven is also just 1-6 ATS off a win versus foe off a loss, and coach Brown is 13-20-2 ATS against .400 or fewer foes, including 6-12-1 ATS when coming off a win. Looking inside Houston’s 49-28 most recent loss at Texas Tech two weeks ago, the Cougs won the stat battle, 489-400. But with Texas on deck, Holgo needs this win. Finally, playing against any college football team coming off three consecutive revenge wins in a row if they are facing a .400 or greater foe when a favorite are 18-35-1 ATS, including 8-27-1 ATS when coming off an ATS win of more than 8 points. Additionally, these teams fall to 2-20 ATS when facing foes that won 6 or more games the previous season. |
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10-09-23 | Packers +2.5 v. Raiders | 13-17 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’re looking at a pair of teams that have their fair share of questions that lack clear-cut answers. Green Bay is trying to find their run game as they have struggled to move the chains in that regard. Las Vegas has a similar situation as they are dead last in rushing yards per game this season. In addition, the hope is that Garoppolo will be able to play after missing last week with a concussion. O’Connell was decent in his NFL debut but was sacked seven times, six by former Raider Khalil Mack. The Packers have the better team right now and it’s tough to have faith in the Raiders given their problems on both sides of the ball. Take Green Bay on the road in this contest. |
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10-08-23 | Jets +2.5 v. Broncos | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Denver ranks dead last in overall defense while being out statted -128 net yards per game. They also allow foes to chew them up on the ground, surrendering 5.6 Yards Per Rush. Finally, the Broncos are 1-14 ATS as a favorite if they were a favorite in their previous game, including 0-12 ATS when they have at least one loss on the season. |
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10-08-23 | Bengals v. Cardinals +3.5 | 34-20 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Arizona QB Josh Dobbs has sparked the Cardinals’ attack. They’re 3-1 ATS behind him; they beat the Cowboys as a double-digit dog, and they were within five points of the mighty 49ers at the start of the fourth quarter last week. In fact, his final two passes of the game last week were dropped touchdown passes that went right through the hands of two receivers in the end zone. Finally, the Bengals are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games against the NFC West. |
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10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4.5 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Rams come in with a 6-1 ATS mark in games when both teams are coming off wins as favorites. Philly tends to falter in games against the NFC West, going 9-16 SU and 8-17 ATS in the past 25 contests. When the 2-2 Rams get Cooper Kupp back, it will be a scary tandem alongside rookie Puka Nacua. Nacua had another monster game after totaling 25 catches for 266 yards over the first two weeks, notching nine receptions for 163 yards last Sunday in Los Angeles’ overtime win at Indianapolis. Finally, playing against the defending Super Bowl loser from Game 5 out as an away favorite of fewer than 7 points in a non-division game versus a .333 or greater opponent is 16-1 ATS. |
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10-08-23 | Saints v. Patriots -118 | Top | 34-0 | Loss | -118 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week |
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10-07-23 | Notre Dame -6 v. Louisville | 20-33 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Fighting Irish have a 10-0 SUATS win streak against the ACC, including 6-0 SUATS under head coach Marcus Freeman with an average winning margin of 19.5 PPG. Yes, the Cardinals are a perfect 5-0 this season but they’re a weak 1-3 ATS versus FBS opponents in 2023. Worse, they’re 1-9 ATS after NC State, 1-5 ATS after a Weekday road game, and 3-7 ATS as home dogs of 14 or fewer points. Surprisingly, the stat yards and numbers are close to identical for these two: Notre Dame rushes for 192.2 YPG while Louie rushes for 192.8 YPG, etc. But the Irish are an impressive 17-2 SU and 15-4 away off an away game. |
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10-07-23 | Kentucky +14.5 v. Georgia | 13-51 | Loss | -104 | 75 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Georgia has gone 0-4 ATS in the last four series meetings with Kentucky and some chinks in the Bulldogs’ armor have been exposed versus SEC competition in 2023. Kentucky is 14-1 ATS when coming off a home game and facing a foe coming off an away game. In addition, UK is 8-1 ATS off a win versus an opponent coming off a win and 5-1 ATS as conference dogs of 14 or more points. Finally Kentucky is 15-3 ATS with conference revenge the past six seasons, including 7-0 ATS when the Wildcats are undefeated. |
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10-07-23 | Colorado v. Arizona State +4.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 75 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Colorado has been outscored 90-28 in the first half of their last three games. The Buffs are also 1-8 ATS when coming off a home loss. Meanwhile, the Arizona State owns the better defense by 136 YPG and are also 9-0 ATS at home in Game Six of the season. They are also 17-9 ATS as a conference home dog, including 13-4 ATS when coming off a loss. Finally, Arizona State is 9-0 ATS as a home dog when both teams are coming off a loss and they are hosting an opponent that allows 23 or more points per game. |
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10-07-23 | Washington State +3.5 v. UCLA | 17-25 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The red-hot Cougars are 4-0 and averaging over 45 PPG, and 17-0 ATS in games following a SU underdog win since 1993. Meanwhile, after getting shut down by a stifling Utah defense, Chip Kelly has had an extra week to prepare for this explosive Washington State team and will be using his 8th-ranked defense to try and slow down the Cougars, who also had the week off. UCLA is just 2-5 ATS with rest in their last seven in that role and further, are 4-11 ATS in regular season conference games when both teams are coming off a Bye week. WSU head coach Jake Dickert is a rising star, and behind him, we think the Cougars are primed for another upset. |
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10-07-23 | Central Michigan v. Buffalo +3 | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 69 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Playing on any college football team in Game 6 of the season who lost their first 4 games of the season if they are coming off their initial win, and they are facing a conference foe who won 8 or fewer games last season is 36-19-2 ATS in all games since 1980, including 23-9 ATS when facing .400 or greater opponents. Better yet, if these same teams are coming off a SUATS win of fewer than 13 points they zoom to 17-4 ATS. That’s the role the Buffalo Bulls find themselves in when they host Central Michigan. Best of all, if the team won 4 or more games the previous season they skyrocket to 14-1-1 ATS in this role. |
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10-07-23 | Oklahoma +6.5 v. Texas | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 68 h 9 m | Show |
Big-12 Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Plenty of smart people also know Texas historically underperforms when this is a heavyweight championship fight of undefeated teams. UT is 1-5 SU and 2-5 ATS when both teams are without a blemish (last time was 2011) and for some strange reason, Texas is 1-7 ATS the week before a bye. Finally, as big as Big Tex, the 55-foot statue that greets you in Fair Park: Texas is 4-16 ATS in its last twenty games against avenging conference opponents, including 0-9 ATS away from home. |
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10-06-23 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State +11.5 | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Regardless of the Cowboys’ recent struggles, this is still Mike Gundy country, where the veteran OSU head coach is 22-9 SU and 18-11-1 ATS at home when coming off a loss. Revenge is certainly on the table tonight as well after Kansas State walloped the Pokes last year, 48-0, but while KSU is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 versus Big 12 revenge, that’s where the good news ends for the Wildcats. Head coach Chris Klieman is just 21-25-1 ATS away, including 3-17 SU and 5-14-1 ATS versus .500 or greater foes. Then there’s K-State’s 2-6 SU and 2-5 ATS ledger on Fridays, including 0-4 SUATS against foes coming off a loss. Meanwhile, the series host is on a 5-0 ATS roll, Oklahoma State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games playing with revenge, and 5-1 ATS as a conference home dog. Finally, OSU head coach Mike Gundy is 14-3 SU and 12-4 ATS in games when the Cowboys sport a .500 win-loss record, including 8-1 and 9-0 ATS versus foes with a winning record, as well as 7-0 SU and 5-1 ATS at home. |
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10-05-23 | Bears +6.5 v. Commanders | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these squads coming off heartbreakers. What a horrible loss for the Bears to the Broncos. That tied for the biggest blown lead (21 pts) in team history. So now they are 0-4 for the first time since 2000. Justin Fields had a great day (4 TDs/1 INT), D.J. Moore had 8 receptions, 131 yards, & a TD & Kahlil Herbert with 18 carries for 103 yards, but still without a win. Washington will be facing a team which has allowed 25+ pts for an NFL record 14 straight games. The Commanders are 4-1 vs Chicago, but they are only 1-8 as home favorites in October. Finally, Washington is 3-8 ATS at home after a division road game and 3-7 ATS after facing Philadelphia. |
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10-01-23 | Steelers v. Texans +3 | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Stroud has completed 73 of 103 passes (70.9 percent) for 877 yards and all four of his touchdowns while inside the pocket. Outside the pocket, where he was often dangerous as a playmaker in college, Stroud has only completed five of 18 throws (27.8 percent) for 29 yards on 1.6 yards per attempt. Amazingly, he has accomplished all of this while playing behind an unsettled and injury-riddled offensive line that is allowing the third-highest pressure rate in the league. Through it all, he leads the league with a 77.8 percent completion percentage (14 of 18) against man coverage while tossing 222 yards and two touchdowns. The league average completion percentage against man coverage is 58.5 percent. So now that we’ve ascertained that we have the better QB in this game, we’ll lean on Houston's 6-1 ATS mark as a dog with a win percentage of .333 or more when coming off its initial win of the season. With the Steelers staring dead ahead to a bigger clash up next with Baltimore, we look to the fact that Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is 12-21-1 ATS as a non-division road favorite coming off a win, including 1-11 ATS during the first six games of the season. |
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10-01-23 | Ravens v. Browns -135 | 28-3 | Loss | -135 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cleveland Browns lost Nick Chubb for the season, and Deshaun Watson has been spotty at best, although good last week. But people need to realize how freaking good this defense is. The offense is but a side role player in this production as the Browns have the best defense in the league and it will carry them all season. They held Joe Burrow to under 100 yards passing, they held Derrick Henry to 20 yards rushing, and in their only loss, 14 of the 26 points were from defensive touchdowns -- a pick 6 and a fumble scoop and score. The Ravens' passing game is limited and without much help around Jackson, I don't see the Ravens being able to mount much of an attack. |
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10-01-23 | Rams +105 v. Colts | Top | 29-23 | Win | 105 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units QB Gardner Minshew’s will last week moved his record to 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS in his last dozen starts. Complicating matters, the Colts are 5-10 SUATS in non-division games following consecutive underdog wins. Given the fact that Indy is one of 6 NFL teams to have been outgained in each of their games this season, what are the chances for the Colts this week? It is not all that good. The Rams have a top coach and a quality quarterback, which makes them dangerous on any given Sunday. Especially knowing that the Colts are just 2-12-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins, including 0-8-1 ATS at home. Finally, HC McVay is 5-0 ATS away in his career, and 5-0 ATS when coming off a loss in his career, against foes coming off a SU underdog win. |
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10-01-23 | Bengals v. Titans +2.5 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Titans surrender just 2.6 defensive yards per rush, which jumps off the page next to Cincinnati’s 5.1 DYPR. That’s a gaping difference. So, while a boatload of trends lines up in the Bengals’ favor, we’ll defer to stats and shade the Titans and Mike Vrabel and his glossy 16-9 ATS dog log against foes coming off a SUATS win. Finally, the Titans are 9-3 ATS at home against foes coming off a Monday night contest, including 4-0 ATS versus sub .400 opponents. |
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09-30-23 | South Carolina v. Tennessee -12 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 70 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Gamecocks appear to have lost their edge following a close-but-no-cigar loss to Georgia, as they are now 0-3 ITS (In The Stats) against fellow FBS foes this season. Keep an eye on the line as South Carolina is also a miserable 1-7 ATS as road dogs of 12 or less points. Tennessee has cashed in 4 of the last five series meetings and despite a wobbly 3-9 ATS record in its last 12 SEC games when seeking revenge, we’ll still lay the points in this major conference payback. |
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09-30-23 | Kansas +16.5 v. Texas | 14-40 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Texas is 0-7 ATS as conference favorites of more than 10 points, 1-5 ATS when coming off back-to-back wins, and 2-9 ATS at home before facing fellow conference defector Oklahoma. Kansas has covered 5 of the last six meetings in this series, is 5-2 ATS as conference dogs of more than 10 points, and 7-3 against the number overall with conference revenge. Finally, Kansas head coach Lance Leipold is 10-3-2 ATS in his career against undefeated opponents, including 6-2 SU and 7-0-1 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win. |
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09-30-23 | Georgia v. Auburn +14.5 | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 66 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Defending National Champions are 8-14-1 ATS as undefeated double digit road chalk versus .750 or greater opponents. Auburn is 7-0 ATS in Game 5 vs. conference foes and has a 3-1 spread mark as conference home dogs of 6 points or more. Freeze is 28-12 ATS as a dog, including 13-5 ATS versus undefeated foes. |
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09-30-23 | Illinois +1 v. Purdue | Top | 19-44 | Loss | -115 | 66 h 18 m | Show |
Big-10 Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Vegas has made the Boilermakers the betting favorite, and that’s where things get ugly for Purdue. They are 1-6 ATS in the last seven games when laying points against avenging teams, 0-4 ATS at Ross-Ade last year and 0-3 SU at home this season. Purdue always seems tougher when they have the chip on their shoulder and here to knock it off is the fact that Purdue is 0-12 ATS as a conference favorite of 18 or less points. |
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09-30-23 | Texas A&M v. Arkansas +6.5 | 34-22 | Loss | -105 | 63 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Fisher is just 17-31 ATS versus avenging .500-or-greater conference opponents, including 2-12 ATS versus foes coming off a loss. Meanwhile, the Hogs cashed our 4-star Best Bet winner last week and they’re coming right back for more this week. They are in the right role, going 14-6 ATS as a dog under head coach Sam Pittman, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 9 points. |
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09-30-23 | Florida +105 v. Kentucky | Top | 14-33 | Loss | -100 | 63 h 55 m | Show |
SEC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops has worked wonders during his 10-plus years at Lexington but he’s a money-burning 8-14 ATS at home in conference games versus foes off an ATS loss. And when it comes to taking on a conference team playing with revenge, the Cats had cashed just three tickets in their last ten tries. Finally, consider that Florida's HC is 11-2 ATS as a dog in conference games, including 7-0 SUATS as a dog of 5 or fewer points |
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09-29-23 | Louisville v. NC State +3.5 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 45 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cardinals are gaining a lot of respect from Vegas, but the fact is they’ve lost the money in both of their away games so far. We don’t like that they have Notre Dame up next, nor their 1-6 ATS record when coming off consecutive wins as a favorite. NC State QB Brennan Armstrong has struggled to find his footing after transferring in from Virginia, but we expect a breakout game from him tonight. Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren’s 7-3 ATS as a home dog with revenge, including 5-1 ATS when coming off a win, assures us we’ll root for the home team to pull off a mild upset. |
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09-28-23 | Lions v. Packers +2 | 34-20 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Packers overcame a 17-0 fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Saints 18-17 in a game which increased their home opening record to 16-1 in the process. With it, they bring a lofty 12-0-1 outright mark in second-home games entering this contest while going 9-3-1 ATS in those games. Tonight’s game also marks the first time in the last 10 meetings between these two squads in which Green Bay will be on the receiving end of the points. The Lions are 4-28 SU in Green Bay dating back to 1992 – being the favorite only twice. Finally, the Packers’ are 4-0 ATS as a home dog. |
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09-28-23 | Middle Tennessee State +6.5 v. Western Kentucky | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Blue Raider boss Rick Stockstill stands 9-5 ATS in his career against .500 or fewer foes that are coming off two losses, including 7-2 ATS in conference play. He’s also in his 18th season in Murfreesboro, so regardless of whatever Western coach Tyson Helton throws at them, Stockstill has probably seen it before. After the requisite blowout defeat against Alabama to start the season, MTSU acquitted itself nicely in a narrow 23-19 loss at Missouri and should get its first outright road win of 2023 here. |
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09-25-23 | Rams v. Bengals -135 | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 34 h 46 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Cincinnati is 15-3 SU and 16-2 ATS in its last 18 non-division games, including 6-0 SUATS at home. In addition, they stand 7-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS losses. Los Angeles checks in with a 0-6-2 ATS log against AFC North foes coming off back-to-back losses. Finally, Joe Burrow is 5-0-1 ATS with the Bengals when Cincinnati is coming off a pair of losses. |
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09-24-23 | Steelers v. Raiders -155 | 23-18 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS their last six meetings. Jimmy Garoppolo, who stands heads and shoulders above Kenny Pickett. Jimmy G brings a 39-25-1 ATS overall career mark into this game, including 4-1 ATS against the AFC North. With the Black-and-Gold just 1-3 ATS in its last four games after Cleveland, we are going with the Raiders. |
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09-24-23 | Texans +8 v. Jaguars | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Houston, is a team that’s given Jacksonville fits over the years with the Texans going 15-3 outright in its last 18 games against Jacksonville, including 5-1 SUATS as a dog in this series since 2018. Additionally, while Houston is 0-2 SUATS this season, they are 2-0 ITS (In The Stats). Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has yet to cash an NFL ticket as a home favorite, going 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. To cap it off, Jacksonville is 2-13 SU and 1-14 ATS as a favorite if the Jags were a dog in their last game. |
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09-24-23 | Colts v. Ravens -7.5 | 22-19 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore looks to improve to 3-0 on the season, something they haven’t done since 2016. They are 8-1 ATS after division road games and 5-1 ATS when both teams are coming off a division contest. The Colts are 1-7 ATS in their last games against the AFC North and 2-7 ATS in games when both teams were taking points last week. |
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09-24-23 | Patriots -138 v. Jets | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Patriots are 0-2 for the first time since 2001. They went on to go 14-3 thereafter, riding a season-ending 9-0 win skein to capture the Super Bowl. But that was all with Tom Brady, not Mac Jones. One of the Pats’ weaknesses has been the lack of a ground game, and that doesn’t work in the NFL. The 6 NFL teams failing to average more than 82 Rushing Yards Per Game this season are struggling, going 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS through the first two games of the season. However, New England had a 5-0 ATS series record against the Jets, and a 6-1 ATS mark in games in which both teams are coming off SUATS losses. Bill Belichick is 18-3 SU and 14-7 of late in games when coming off successive losses. |
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09-24-23 | Broncos +6 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-70 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating; 4 Units After blowing last week’s 21-14 lead after two quarters, Denver has now lost an NFL record nine straight games where it has had the lead at halftime. Even with first-year NFL coaches just 1-9 this season, the value is all with Denver in this matchup. You can count on one thing in this game: Sean Payton is pissed, and somebody will pay the price. He is also 23-7-2 ATS in his NFL career against foes coming off a win. Finally, NFL Game Three underdogs coming off a pair of SU favorite losses are 16-2-1 ATS since 2003, including 9-0 ATS versus foes with a winning record. |
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09-23-23 | USC v. Arizona State +34.5 | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 36 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This doesn’t scream Trojans blowout mainly because Southern Cal is 0-5 ATS as a road favorite of 15 or more, 0-3 ATS off rest the last two years, 1-6 ATS after allowing less than 10 points and 1-6 ATS in the front end of back-to-back road games. With Colorado looming, this may be a letdown game for Lincoln Riley’s squadron, Caleb Williams or not. Plus, ASU is 5-0 ATS in the last five in this series, 7-1 ATS as a home dog of 11 or more and 3-1 ATS in the 4th straight home game. Additionally, playing on any college football conference home dog of more than 18 points coming off consecutive home losses is 17-2 ATS. |
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09-23-23 | Ohio State v. Notre Dame +3 | 17-14 | Push | 0 | 34 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Notre Dame is 14-6 SU in their last 20 Big Ten battles and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven, but use caution because they are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS versus the Buckeyes since 1995. Also, don’t forget that Ohio State beat the Irish, 21-10, in the season opener at The Horseshoe last season, and the Golden Domers are 8-2 ATS at home with revenge. The stats that will seal the deal with this one is the fact that home dogs who have managed to tally 40 or more points in each of their last THREE games in a row have gone 28-11 ATS in this role since 1980. Additionally, if these same home teams have won 16 or more of their previous 28 home games, they are 23-5 ATS in this role. |
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09-23-23 | Oregon State v. Washington State +3 | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 76 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units OSU West is a bad conference road favorite, going 1-4 ATS in the last two years. Meanwhile the Cougars have numbers in their corner: 6-3 ATS the last nine, 5-1 ATS in a third straight home game, and 5-1 ATS in the last six as a home dog. Game 4 has been good for WSU as they boast an 8-2 ATS mark. Finally, College football home teams in Game Four of the season are 18-9 ATS in a matchup of 3-0 teams, including 9-1 ATS against foes coming off an ATS loss. |
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09-23-23 | Arkansas +18 v. LSU | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 76 h 33 m | Show |
SEC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Hogs got crushed last week in a stunning home loss against BYU last week but they actually outgained the Cougars 424-281 in total yardage. In addition, Arkansas Head coach Sam Pittman is 6-1-1 ATS on the road with revenge and the Razorbacks are 7-1-1 ATS away with conference revenge. Meanwhile, the Tigers have not had the best of it in this series, going 1-3-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Finally, LSU is 3-11-2 ATS as a favorite in conference home openers, including 0-7-2 ATS when favored by 13 or more points |
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09-23-23 | Maryland -7.5 v. Michigan State | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 29 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units MSU is 4-7 ATS as a home dog and you must wonder what can be said to raise the level of both play and attitude around the program. It’s the third straight year UMD has started 3-0 and the stats are overwhelmingly positive. Maryland is averaging 471 YPG of offense and 299 YPG of defense. Taulia Tagovialoa has become Maryland’s all-time TD pass leader to add to his other records he is sharing and is likely to break. Finally consider that teams playing off their first loss of the year, at home in this role tend to perform poorly going 145-1605-4 ATS overall since 1980. Additionally, if they allowed 35 or more points in their initial loss, they fall to 46-73-2 ATS. This week’s host is Michigan State. When they are facing a conference opponent, they plummet to 20-41-1 ATS. |
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09-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -6.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 10 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Nick Saban’s is 28-3 record versus former assistants, including 2-0 SUATS when the Tide is coming off consecutive point spread losses by an average win margin of 24 PPG. Additionally, if those assistants are undefeated, Saban is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS against them. Saban is 9-2 SUATS in his career when his team is coming off consecutive double-digit ATS losses, including 8-0 SUATS the last eight games. Finally, Nick Saban is 21-7-1 ATS in conference games when coming off back-to-back ATS losses, including 8-0-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win and 4-0 SUATS versus undefeated foes (by an average win margin of 30 PPG) |
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09-22-23 | Wisconsin -5.5 v. Purdue | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wisconsin has dominated this series going 16-0 SU and 13-3 ATS the last 16 meetings, along with a 7-2 ATS mark before a Week of Rest, and an 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS record on Weekdays. Purdue comes in with a 2-17 ATS mark as a home dog in games they fail to win. They are also 1-8 ATS of late in the second of 3 straight home games. |
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09-21-23 | Giants +10 v. 49ers | 12-30 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Francisco is one of two teams in the NFL this year that went from worst to first in their division last season. That’s not good news if you’re looking to back them as a favorite, as these teams are just 82-100-5 ATS overall since 2004, including 43-68-3 ATS as home favorites. San Fran is also 1-6 ATS in this series when coming off back-to-back wins. The Giants were one of four NFL teams to come back and win after trailing by double-digits last week. New York is 6-0 ATS as a dog after being a favorite in its last game, and 3-0 ATS on Thursdays the past three seasons, and 4-0 ATS before a Monday night game. |
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09-18-23 | Browns v. Steelers +2 | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mike Tomlin does not take to losing consecutive home games very well, where he is 8-1 outright in the get-even game. Tomlin is also 7-1 ATS the last eight games as a dog after a game where he was a dog, and 13-4-5 ATS as a home dog in his career with Pittsburgh. The Browns are feeling good about themselves after destroying Cincinnati at the Dawg Pound last week, however they are just 1-9 ATS when coming off a SUATS win. |
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09-17-23 | Bears +3 v. Bucs | 17-27 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucs are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games at Raymond James Stadium and 1-4 ATS in the first of a two-game homestand. The Bears are 6-3 ATS in the first of consecutive road games. Tampa comes into this one off a phony 20-17 win at Minnesota in which they lost the stats, 369-242, whereas the Bears were edged, 329-311, in total yards in their 18-point loss to the Packers. Finally, Tamp QB Baker is only 9-21-2 as a favorite in the NFL, including losing his last eight. |
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09-17-23 | Chiefs v. Jaguars +3.5 | 17-9 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia HC Pederson is 16-12-1 ATS in his NFL head coaching career as an underdog when seeking revenge, including 4-0 ATS in the last four games. And Jacksonville brings a perfect 6-0 ATS home dog log into this contest – winning all six games outright! Consider that the Chiefs come in with a 2-7 ATS record in the last nine regular-season games against the AFC South, and are 1-4 ATS after a Thursday contest. |
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09-17-23 | Seahawks +5.5 v. Lions | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 88 h 16 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Seattle is 4-0 SUATS in this series, as well as 21-9 SU and 20-8-1 ATS when coming off a loss and facing an opponent coming off a win. In addition, Seattle’s head coach thrives against teams coming off a win from this division, going 11-3 outright in his career, including 5-0 when the foe is coming off an upset win. Finally, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 8-3 ATS as a dog with the Seahawks when facing an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 7 points. |
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09-17-23 | Ravens v. Bengals -170 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -170 | 88 h 8 m | Show |
Conference Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units NFL division teams in Game Two of the season, coming off a division loss in Game One, are 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS since 1990 if they were a playoff team last season, including games against opponents who are coming off a SUATS win. The Ravens are a horrible 2-7 SU and 0-7-1 ATS record of late when coming off a no-division game and taking on an opponent off a division game. The Bengals 8-1 ATS when coming off a road game and facing a foe off a home game. Finally, playing on any NFL home team in Game Two coming off a loss if they were a playoff team last season and they are facing a division opponent coming off a win is a perfect 10-0 ATS since 2010. |
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09-16-23 | Wyoming +30 v. Texas | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 72 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Steve Sarkisian became just the third former assistant to knock off Nick Saban. In the same vein, these same former assistants are just 1-6 ATS in follow-up contests when tackling .750 or greater foes. UT just 3-8 ATS at home before battling the Bears. Finally, favorites of 16 or more points coming off an upset win over Alabama are 2-9 ATS since 1980, including 0-4 ATS if they were a dog of 7-plus points versus the Crimson Tide. |
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09-16-23 | Georgia Tech +18.5 v. Ole Miss | 23-48 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Lane Kiffin has struggled at home in non-conference contests, going 8-13 ATS overall in his career, including 2-10 ATS at home when coming off a non-conference clash. We are concerned that Ole Miss had a tough time with Tulane last week without their star QB Michael Pratt. Kiffin saw his explosive RB Quinshon Judkins completely bottled up (18 carries for 48 yards) and could not put the Green Wave away until kicker Caden Davis hit a 56-yard field goal in the final two minutes. New Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key was a former Nick Saban assistant and knows the SEC, and his troops are averaging 41 PPG and are 2-0 ITS (In The Stats) to starts his tenure. We believe a take is in order tonight. |
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09-16-23 | Syracuse v. Purdue +2.5 | Top | 35-20 | Loss | -105 | 72 h 0 m | Show |
NCAAF Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The Boilermakers are 7-2 ATS in games in which both teams enter off an ATS win and 8-2 ATS as a home dog with a win percentage less than .666. Additionally, Home teams in Game Three of the season, who were in a bowl team last season and are coming off a road win that was preceded by a season-opening home loss, are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS since 2017. Finally, Syracuse versus sub-.666 avenging foes, is just 3-9 SU and 1-11 ATS in this role (0-11 the last eleven). |
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09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida +6.5 | Top | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 72 h 38 m | Show |
SEC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Gators are 5-1 ATS in the last six, even with last year’s wild loss when UF was beaten 38-33 while a double-digit dog. UT on the other hand struggles early, their Game 3 record is an embarrassing 0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in game three versus the SEC. After cake games versus FCS teams, the Vols limp around, going 1-5 ATS in the first game after an FCS opponent and in SEC openers, the Vols are also 1-5 ATS. Take them on the road and in games where the home team is seeking revenge, like this one, Tennessee is 3-10-1 ATS, including 0-6 ATS if the foe is coming off a win. Finally, Florida’s Bill Napier is 17-8 ATS as the underdog, including 3-0 SUATS at home. |
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09-16-23 | Penn State -14.5 v. Illinois | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 64 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Penn State is on a 13-2 and 11-3-1 ATS roll going back to last season and lands at No. 7 in this week’s AP Top 25, one of three Big Ten teams in the Top Ten. The Nittany Lions can also claim one of today’s biggest revenge motives, falling to the Illini, 20-18, as 24.5-point home chalk in their last meeting in 2021. PSU comes into this matchup, going 6-1 ATS the last seven as conference road favorite, 6-2 ATS with conference revenge, and 3-1 ATS in the last four series meetings. Finally, the visitor is 24-16 ATS in Penn State games. |
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09-16-23 | Kansas State -3.5 v. Missouri | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wildcats are always ready, or at least it seems that way, having suffered through just one ATS losing campaign over the last 15 years. Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman has compiled a 28-14 SU and 25-13 ATS record since taking the job in Manhattan. A week ago, they took on a Troy team which exceled in the dog role, and promptly issued a 42-13 drubbing that goes along with a 375-76 rushing yards edge in the early going, with QB Howard an efficient 5/2 in the early going. The Tigers are annually figured as an upcoming force, but have had only 2 winning seasons over the last 8 years, & are in off a 17-pt ATS loss in narrow SU escape vs Middle Tennessee. |
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09-14-23 | Vikings +6.5 v. Eagles | 28-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Vikes’ QB Kirk Cousins is 28-9-1 ATS when his team is coming off a loss and facing a greater than .400 opponent coming off a win, including 7-1-1 ATS within the first four games of the season. Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in home openers the past six seasons, and 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS at home in Game Two of the season. Philadelphia comes into this one banged up defensively and defending Super Bowl losers standing 26-45-1 ATS as a favorite when coming off a SUATS win and facing a foe coming off a SUATS loss, including 17-37-1 ATS when favored by 10 or fewer points. Finally, Minnesota is 8-0-2 ATS as a dog of more than 6 points when coming off a SU favorite loss and taking on an opponent coming off a win. |
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09-14-23 | Navy +14 v. Memphis | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This year’s Tigers look mighty impressive after their 2-0 start, but the truth is they crushed a pair of cupcakes, beating Bethune Cookman, 56-14, and Arkansas State, 37-3. Navy comes in with a 7-1 ATS mark when coming off a home win, and 5-0 ATS road dog of late. Pair those stats with the Tigers’ weak 1-6 ATS record the last seven versus non-conference foes and a downright dismal 0-5 ATS failure when playing off a SUATS win, and we just can’t go against Navy this evening. To top it off, Memphis isn't the best of home favorites going 3-10 ATS. |
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09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 98 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The Jets hosts division rival Buffalo sporting a long-term 8-5-1 ATS mark at home on Monday nights in division battles. They also bring a nifty 10-6 SU and 11-5 ATS mark in this series into this contest, including 4-0 SUATS as a competitive dog of 4 or fewer points. Meanwhile Aaron Rodgers enters on a nine-game win skein on Mondays. He is also 6-1-1 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career. Finally, the Jets are 22-10-1 SU and 24-9 ATS of late, including 6-0 ATS in season opening games the past six years |
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09-10-23 | Cowboys v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 40-0 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 20 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The architect of the Cowboys’ offense, Kellen Moore, who has moved on to take over the offensive coordinator duties with the Chargers in Los Angeles this season. Over Moore’s four years as offensive coordinator in Dallas (2019-2022), the Cowboys’ offense totaled the 2nd most yards (391 per game) and 2nd most points (27.7 per game) in the NFL. However, Dallas is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS away against quadruple avenging opponents, including 0-4 ATS in division games. New York is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS at home when seeking quadruple revenge, including 4-0 SUATS in division contests |
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09-10-23 | Eagles v. Patriots +4 | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia will face the league’s toughest schedule, by measurement of each opponent’s projected season win total. By this criterion alone, teams carrying this sort of added weight have fallen short in the 6 years we’ve been charting the theory, going 47-41 SU and 40-46-2 ATS overall that season, including 10-24-1 ATS as a favorite. Remember, Philly faced the league’s softest schedule last season, and it helped land them a spot in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs. Keep in mind as well that playing against the defending Super Bowl loser if they are away in Game One of the season is 15-2 ATS. Additionally, the Eagles 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-division away games, look for the Hoodie’s 12-3 outright record at home in season openers to serve as a tall task for the Eagles. |
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09-10-23 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Chargers | 36-34 | Win | 100 | 70 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami is coming off 3 straight winning seasons for 1st time since 1997-2003 (7 straight). However, they lost 6 of their last 7 games in '22 w/ their only win being a TD-less 11-6 win over the Jets in week 18. 1-4 in games not started by Tua last year. Last we saw the Chargers, they blew a 27-0 2nd quarter lead in Jacksonville before going down 31-30. They are the 1st team in NFL playoff history to lose a game with 5+ turnover margin. Herbert , 2nd player ever w/ 25+ TD passes in each of his 1st 3 seasons (P Manning). He has more PY (14,089) than any player in NFL history thru 1st 3 seasons. However, the Dolphins are 9-2 ATS as AFC West dogs and 8-2 ATS in season openers, and the Chargers 1-10 ATS non-division home chalk of four or fewer points, and just 1-5 ATS versus the AFC East. |
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09-10-23 | 49ers v. Steelers +2.5 | 30-7 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in season openers the last six years, and 1-6 ATS in games before facing division rival Los Angeles Rams. Additionally, NFL season opening favorites who win 15 or games last season are 2-10 ATS as road chalk of fewer than five points. Finally, Pittsburgh is 10-2-2 ATS as a non-division home dog log under Mike Tomlin, including 4-0-1 ATS against foes that won 14-plus game the previous season. |
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09-09-23 | Texas v. Alabama -7 | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Saban’s record against former assistants is well-documented at 28-2 SU. What they don’t know is that he is 14-0 SU and 10-4 ATS in those same games when favored by 18 or fewer points, including 4-0 SUATS at home. Add to that the fact that Bama is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS at home off a home game, while Texas is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference road tilts and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games versus SEC opponents, and this looks like a Crimson Tide win-and cover |
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09-09-23 | Central Florida v. Boise State +3.5 | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 67 h 26 m | Show |
NCAAF Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The Broncos after owning the No. 2 rushing attack in the Mountain West last season under OC Dirk Koetter, BSU’s top two RB’s George Holani and Ashton Jeanty managed just 95 yards on 20 carries against Washington under new OC Bush Hamdan (a former Boise QB). Meanwhile the Boise defense, which was ranked 11th in the nation in 2022, was lit up for 568 yards by Michael Penix and his cohorts. But keep in mind that the Broncos have survived in the past. Boise is now cast into the rare role of a home dog where they are 5-3 SUATS in this role since 1999. Finally, Boise State is 21-0 outright in its first home game of the season the past twenty-one years. |
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09-09-23 | SMU v. Oklahoma -15 | 11-28 | Win | 100 | 67 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Didn't take Sooners long to shake the dust from last year's losing season, with 14-0 lead over Arkansas St in 1st 2:22. A 642-208 yard edge (38-10 first downs) in 73-0 cake walk. Ponies return 16 starters, holding La Tech to 11FDs & rushing yards, &limiting Bachmeier to 1/1, but they've allowed 31+ pts 10 of their last 14 games. Statwise, they're close to equal, but when Okies get rolling! Consider finally, that teams coming off a 60 point-plus win are 25-10 ATS as a favorite in game two, including 17-5 ATS at home. |
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09-09-23 | Texas A&M v. Miami-FL +4.5 | Top | 33-48 | Win | 100 | 65 h 39 m | Show |
NCAAF Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Texas A&M has gone 1-5 on the scoreboard, 4-13-1 ATS overall in road openers and 0-5-1 ATS as a favorite of 3 or more points. They haven't done well coming off a big win, going 4-11-1 ATS off a 40+ point win when meeting a team better than a .400 record. Miami comes in at 17-4 SU and 14-6-1 ATS at home in a battle of undefeated teams. Miami has also done well versus the SEC when a dog against a team coming off a win, going 3-0-1 ATS. Miami has done well versus unbeatens, going 4-1 SUATS and 13-5 ATS. Finally, Miami is 13-5 SUATS as a non-conference home dog, including 5-0 SUATS the last five, and 7-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a SUATS win. |
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09-09-23 | Ole Miss v. Tulane +7.5 | 37-20 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Tulane was 11-2 ATS last season, and 7-1 ATS in game two of back-to-back home games. At home, coach Fritz is 37-18 SU and 30-16-1 ATS in his career. Ole Miss showed no mercy to Mercer, winning by 67 and racking up 667 yards, but now it’s time to hit the road, and the visitors from Oxford aren’t very good when favored by a decent number. In 2022 they were 0-4-1 ATS as a favorite of 17 or less, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-con road games. Finally, they are also 3-7 ATS off a home win of 14 or more and 2-5 SUATS in road openers. |
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09-09-23 | Nebraska +3.5 v. Colorado | 14-36 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Opening week underdogs of 20 or more points who pull an upset revenge win have been known to disappear the following week, as these teams are 0-6 SU and 1-4 ATS, with only ONE of the aforementioned squads coming in as a favorite. That was Southern Miss in 1989, who returned home following its 30-26 road win as 22.5-point dogs at Florida State. The Golden Eagles laid 7 points to Mississippi State, then immediately proceeded to lose the whole game to the Bulldogs and drop out of sight. They finished the season 0-5 SUATS against non-conference foes while concluding the season with a losing record. Finally, Nebraska head coach Rhule is 29-12 ATS away in his college career, as well as 9-3 ATS as a single-digit dog. |
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09-08-23 | Illinois v. Kansas -145 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 44 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Illini have some dismal point spread trends coming in to this one going 1-7 ATS before playing Penn State, 1-6 ATS on Weekdays, and 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS their last six regular season meetings with a Big 12 foe. Pair those facts with KU’s 5-0-1 ATS success in Kansas vs. Big Ten matchups and Illinois head coach Bret Bielema’s 4-9-1 ATS slide in road openers, including 2-8 ATS the last ten, and you have the winner. |
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09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs -4 | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lions have struggled at 2-7 ATS in their last nine non-division games on Thursdays. We realize the defending champs were 7-3 SU but 0-10 ATS in one-score games last season, but evidence has it this should not be the case tonight. Not when you consider Andy Reid’s 6-0 SUATS career record on Thursdays against non-division foes – with every win by double-digits. And note that the Chiefs are looking to become the third team to reach four Super Bowls in a five-year span, along with the 1990-93 Bills and the 2014-18 Patriots. |
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09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13.5 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 118 h 36 m | Show |
NCAAF Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Clemson comes into this one with a 1-7 ATS mark as a road favorite in season openers, and a 3-7 ATS log in its last ten games on this field. Swinney brought in Garrett Riley from TCU to overhaul the Tigers’ stagnant offense. Duke comes in 3-1 SUATS in its last four lined home-openers as well as 3-0 SUATS in its last three lined season openers. More importantly, Duke was 6-1 SU and 6-0 ATS at home in Mike Elko’s debut last season. Finally, College football home dogs in season openers who return 17 or more starters are 43-16-1 ATS since 1990 if they won three or more games the previous season, including 12-2 ATS if they are a dog of more than 12 points. |
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09-03-23 | LSU v. Florida State +2.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 93 h 56 m | Show |
NCAAF Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The Tigers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games away from the Bayou when forced to lay points. Meanwhile, the Seminoles comes back with no less than 18 starters back from last year’s 10-win squad which improved on offense by 8 points and 104 yards per game, while the defense allowed 6 points less and 58 yards less per contest. They are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in this series since 1980, including 4-0 SUATS when facing an LSU squad that won six or more games the previous season. Finally, Florida State is 9-0-2 in 11 previous contests in Orlando. |
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09-03-23 | Oregon State -16 v. San Jose State | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 52 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OSU comes into this one 8-2 ATS in their last ten games versus MWC foes, and also closed the season on a 7-0 ATS run, thanks largely to a defense that improved 55 YPG. The Spartans were on the opposite side ATS finishing up 0-7 ATS their final seven games and it continued in a 56-28 loss to USC in Saturday night’s season opener. Former Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro threw 3 TD passes to WR Nick Nash against the Trojans and ran for an additional 52 yards on the ground. However, with SJSU just 1-26 SU in their last twenty-seven lined games against Pac-12 opponents. To close it all out, consider that playing on any CFB away team as either a favorite or dog of fewer than 20 points in its season opener if they won 8 or more games last season and are facing an opponent coming off a loss of 8 or more points as a dog is 11-0 ATS since 1990. |
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09-02-23 | Coastal Carolina v. UCLA -14.5 | 13-27 | Loss | -108 | 72 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This Coast-to-Coast matchup features a Coastal team that doesn't do well in games where they are a big underdog, going 4-8 ATS when taking double digits. UCLA comes in off a winning season but lost it's bowl game. Keeping that in mind playing on any college football team in its season-opening game if they lost straight-up as a bowl favorite of -7 or more points last season is a money making 50-33-1 ATS in games since 1990 – a rock-solid 60% winning proposition. In addition, when these same teams open the season at home and have won 15 or more of their previous 28 home games they are a winning 29-10-1 ATS, including 16-3-1 ATS since 2007. |
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09-02-23 | North Carolina -135 v. South Carolina | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 70 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units NC Coach Mack is 26-4 SU in season openers, (18-1 in the last 19) and he brings back 18 starters hungry for revenge and looking to compete with pre-season favorites Florida State and Clemson. South Carolina, hasn’t been very successful versus ACC teams lately, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in the last six. When they play in neutral territory, they are only 1-3 SUATS. Finally, UNC IS 5-0 as a favorite of fewer than four points against SEC foes. |
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09-02-23 | South Florida v. Western Kentucky -11.5 | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 66 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units WKU has brought in a pair of WRs from Auburn and Tennessee to join wideout Malachi Corley (led college football in yards after catch with 975 and missed tackles forced with 40), so look for W. Kentucky to add to a 5-1-1 ATS record in lined openers. South Florida has not faired well in each of the last three meetings, going 0-3 ATS against Western. Additionally, they are 4-29 overall out-right their L33 contests. The Bulls are also on a 1-16 straight-up run which is why first-year head coach Alex Golesh is now in Tampa. |
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09-02-23 | Northern Illinois +9 v. Boston College | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 62 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units NIU is 30th in returning players and they’ve hung with BC in two losses, both by three points. In 2021 the Huskies won nine, last season they won just three times. We like the 2021 MAC champs to ride a healthy QB in Rocky Lombardi to connect with WR Treyvon Rudolph, more than three times, to keep this one respectable. Take the points. |
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09-01-23 | Stanford v. Hawaii +3.5 | 37-24 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hawaii returns to the Island with a 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS mark in their last ten lined home openers, including 6-1 ATS when taking points. Standford has a new HC and new CFB head coaches are 7-18-2 ATS in Game One with a team that won three or fewer games the previous season. Adding to HC Taylor’s issues is Stanford’s horrible 1-8 SUATS mark in its last nine road games. To finish it off, consider that Hawaii is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a home dog in Pac-12 games since 2010. |
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08-31-23 | Florida v. Utah -4.5 | 11-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Florida edged the Utes, 29-26, as a 5.5-point home dog in last year’s season opener, however keep in mind that Utah HC Whittingham is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in his career when seeking revenge from a non-conference loss. He’s also 15-0 outright in home openers against non-conference opponents with an average winning score of 38-14. Florida’s Napier does bring a 17-7 ATS dog log into the fray, including 5-1 last season, but Utah looks to be so loaded. |
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08-26-23 | Florida International v. Louisiana Tech -11.5 | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both of these teams struggled last season under rookie head coaches, but the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs clearly had the better offseason, bringing in a top notch quarterback in Bachmeier from Boise State and a promising receiver in Crawford from Nebraska. they also have more talent coming back, including two top receivers and their leading running back. Tech could seriously challenge for the Conference USA title so they should get off to a good start here. With the firepower they have, giving up 11.5 points doesn't seem like much. And for the Panthers, this could be another long year as they lost some key pieces. Take Louisiana Tech to cover the spread. |
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08-26-23 | Hawaii +17.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 49 h 20 m | Show |
NCAAF Play of the Day Rating: 3 Units Vanderbilt has been more than 7-point favorites in a season opener five times since 1980 and lost four games outright. They’re just 5-10 ATS as favorites of 14 or more points in nonconference clashes, including 0-4 ATS in the last four. Hawaii likely comes into this one seething from a 63-10 season-opening loss to Vanderbilt in Timmy Chang’s debut last year. A 9-5 ATS mark in season-opening road games works, as does momentum for a 6-1 ATS season-ending effort the previous year. |
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08-26-23 | Navy +20.5 v. Notre Dame | 3-42 | Loss | -107 | 72 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Former DC, Brian Newberry, takes over from Ken Niuamatolo after 16 seasons as the Navy head man on the sidelines. Newberry’s defense allowed a respectable 347.5 YPG in his four seasons in Annapolis. He does inherit 18 starters from last year’s squad. Consider that the Irish are only 19-28 ATS versus the military schools since 1990, including 13-27 ATS at home or on a neutral field. As an added bonus to this pick the last time the Navy endured three consecutive losing seasons, they won 8 games and went bowling. Finally, remember that Military football dogs of 20-plus points are 82-39-4 ATS since 1980. |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles -120 | 38-35 | Loss | -120 | 116 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units When it comes to handicapping the Super Bowl, this much we know for sure: winning the NFL MVP award has been the kiss of death for quarterbacks in Super Bowl games. Our all-knowing database confirms the fact that MVP winning quarterbacks have struggled in the big game since the inception of the Super Bowl in 1967. Collectively these NFL MVP Super Bowl quarterbacks are 6-15 SU and 5-14-2 ATS in all games, including 0-8 SU and ATS since 2002. In addition, we love it when the top-ranked defense in the league (read: Eagles) matches up with the No. 1 offense (read: Chiefs) in a Super Bowl. When considering that teams with the better overall defense have won a whopping 46 of the previous 56 Super Bowls, it’s not surprising to learn that the seven previous teams owning the better scoring defense (read: Eagles) are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in head-to-head games. |
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01-29-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs +1 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 94 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units If there’s one team that has the Chiefs’ number, it’s the Bengals with three wins in a row – all by 3 points, and all as underdogs – in just over a year. It sets up a fourth meeting in 13 months between these two wishful squads. The pressure to extend the skein doesn’t bother head coach Zac Taylor, though. It’s his contention that, “We only have to beat them one time in a row.” Given Andy Reid’s 15-8 SU and 16-7 ATS record in games with triple revenge (7-1 ATS at home), including 5-0 ATS at home off a win and 5-0 SUATS off an ATS loss of fewer than 4 points, we see one in a row coming to a halt today. Yes, we were as wrong as the day is long fading the Bengals last week as we fully expected their glaring lack of success against fellow playoff squads to bite them in Buffalo. Instead, the Bills’ resolve in over-relying on Josh Allen alone did them in as Cincinnati executed a perfect game plan. Today, though, trying to dispose of soon-to-be league MVP Patrick Mahomes is a horse of a different color. Mahomes’ 72 wins in the last five seasons is second only to Tom Brady for the most in any five-year span (77 wins from 2003-07), and he is 9-1 ATS in his NFL career when not laying points. Wobbly ankle and all, we’re not about to go against Mahomes. |
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01-29-23 | 49ers +2.5 v. Eagles | 7-31 | Loss | -100 | 91 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units A suddenly seasoned QB Brock Purdy is in deeper waters than he’s been in his young career, but thanks to a promise fulfilled by the San Francisco defense, he’s answered every demand made of him. However, playoff teams coming off consecutive SUATS wins who were bounced in a championship game the previous year (San Francisco) are 20-1 SUATS since 1985 as either a favorite or as a dog of less than 3 points versus foes off a SUATS win. |
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01-22-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers -186 | 12-19 | Win | 100 | 101 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units NFL teams entering the Divisional Round of the playoffs are 0-4 SUATS since 1990 when on an 11-game exact win streak. The question is does that outweigh the fact that NFL playoff teams playing in a fourth consecutive road game have gone 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS since 1980? It’s a decision you’ll need to make before plunging in on this contest. Meanwhile, Dallas arrives behind a career-best 143.3 QB Rating feat by QB Dak Prescott in its Monday night win over Tampa Bay. It snapped an 8-game road playoff losing skein by the Cowboys spanning 28 years as they bring a 3-13-1 SU and 5-12 ATS playoff road log into this fray. The good news on the Cowboys front is that head coach Mike McCarthy’s 4-0 ATS postseason dog log against greater than .750 opponents offsets Kyle Shanahan’s dizzying 6-1 ATS career mark in the playoffs. So where do we turn here – fade the table-setting stat or fade Prescott off a career-best effort? When push comes to shove we’ll always play against players or teams coming off record-setting performances. Plus, we’ll always side with teams sporting the better defense, and in this case the better offense, too. We simply can’t ignore Frisco’s 16-2 ITS (In The Stats) mark this season, tops in the NFL. Remember, the Niners are still a playoff home team that lost outright in a title game the previous season and these teams are 19-2 SU and 18-3 ATS since 1980 in games when both squads are coming off SUATS wins. Finally, playing on any NFL home favorite in the Divisional Round of the playoffs off a double-digit win who won 12+ games last season if they are facing a foe coming off one win are a perfect 10-0 ATS since 1980. |
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01-22-23 | Bengals v. Bills -4.5 | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bengals QB Joe Burrow is now 4-1 SUATS in the postseason, including 3-0 ATS when taking points. He’s also 16-6-2 ATS overall as a dog, including 9-0 ATS the last nine games – not to mention 3-1 SUATS versus AFC East foes (favored in all), including 3-0 SUATS the last three meetings The real problem for Cincy, though, is the Bengals are now 1-6 In The Stats against fellow playoff teams this season, while losing the total yards the last three games against the same ilk over 100 YPG each (average 139 YPG). And their offensive line is down to two original starters with LT Jonah Williams out with a dislocated kneecap. Yuck. Nonetheless, form takes precedence over the trends. Lay the points. |
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01-21-23 | Giants +7.5 v. Eagles | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When it comes to same-season double revenge for division teams in NFL playoff contests, they are just 7-13 SU and 9-10-1 ATS since 1990. But these same double revengers are 6-1-1 ATS as dog of more than 6 points. New York is 11-2 ATS dog log under Brian Daboll, and were involved in a league-high 14 one-score games, going 9-4-1 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in those contests, which goes hand-in-hand with the fact that a staggering 45% of games this season (122 of 271) were decided by 6 points or fewer – the most since the league expanded to 32 teams in 2002. In the Eagles’ favor, playoff hosts are 37-10 SU and 29-18 ATS since 1990 when facing invaders coming off consecutive away games. And yes, like San Fran, Philadelphia owns the magic elixir when it comes to projecting Super Bowl participants, namely a Top 5-ranked offense and defense. So, while it’s hard to fade the league’s No. 1 overall defense, the points are too attractive for one team on a roll and the other on a slide. |
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01-21-23 | Jaguars v. Chiefs -8.5 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jacksonville is stuck in Kansas City against the top-seeded Chiefs knowing they are 0-3 SUATS against QB Patrick Mahomes. They also take on Andy Reid and his stalwart 29-6 SU and 22-13 ATS overall career mark in games with an added week of rest advantage, including 6-1 outright at home in the postseason. Reid will be going up against his former quarterback Doug Pederson, who was only 3-14 as a starting QB in the league but brings a salty 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS career mark as a head coach in the playoffs. We realize the Chiefs’ gaudy 0-10 ATS mark in one score games this season is troubling but we also know that 15 of Andy Reid’s 19 career postseason wins have been by double-digit margins. And Travis Kelce has to love the fact that the Jags were the 3rd worst ranked team in the league in yards per reception to tight ends |
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01-16-23 | Cowboys v. Bucs +2.5 | 31-14 | Loss | -107 | 55 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Prescott was 14-for-37, while the Cowboys’ rushing game averaged just 2.4 yards per rush on 27 total attempts in last week’s uninspiring loss at Washington. Note that Tom Brady is a 19-time division champion and is 7-0 outright in his career against the Cowboys. We realize that losing teams are 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS in the postseason, but they are 3-0 ATS at home. If fact, hosts are 6-0 ATS in games involving losing squads. Sealing the deal is the fact that playing against any away team in the NFL Wild Card Round of the playoffs if they are coming off a loss of 14 or more points (Dallas) is 14-1 ATS since 1980. |
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01-15-23 | Ravens +9.5 v. Bengals | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 31 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Ravens are 13-2 ATS away in same-season division revenge affairs. Meanwhile, a closer look at the ultra-hot Bengals shows they’ve been outgained in 5 of the 6 games they played this season against fellow playoff teams. Not good news for a team that was a Super Bowl Loser last year and considering they are 6-14-2 ATS in playoff openers when coming off win. Coupled with teams in right-back-same season revenge being 6-3 SU and 6-2-1 ATS when coming off a loss of 5 or fewer points. |
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01-15-23 | Giants +3 v. Vikings | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Giants return to the postseason for the first time since 2016 but bring a 22-8 ATS playoff record since 1982 into this scrum – including 15-4 ATS as a dog. On the fl ip side, the Norsemen are 8-17 SU and 9-15-1 ATS in the postseason since 1989, including 0-9 ATS when facing foes coming off a loss. Vikes’ QB Kirk Cousins has made three starts in the playoffs during his NFL career, going 1-2 SUATS, including 0-1 SUATS as a favorite. Note that Wild Card round dogs of 3 or fewer points, seeking same-season revenge, are 12-4-1 ATS. With it, Big Blue certainly remembers dropping a 27-24 decision here just three weeks ago on a 61-yard field goal at the final gun, a game in which they outstated the Vikes by 92 yards. Look for the G-Men to improve on their 10-2 ATS dog log under head coach Brian Daboll. Go ahead and grab the points |
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01-15-23 | Dolphins v. Bills -13.5 | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Fish have gone 0-4 SUATS in postseason games since and are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS on the playoff road by an average loss margin of 22 PPG. We certainly don’t want any of that, not in frigid Buffalo as the Dolphins are 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS away in outside stadiums in January since 1990, as well as 2-14 SU and 3-13 ATS in Buffalo when arriving off a SUATS home win. You can rest assured the Bills will play the Damar Hamlin card throughout the postseason. In addition, Buffalo is the only team in the playoffs that out-yarded each of the other playoff teams they faced this season. With Bills Mafia backers 31-9-4 ATS in games Buffalo wins outright as a favorite behind Josh Allen. |
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01-14-23 | Chargers v. Jaguars +2.5 | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 31 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units AFC South champion Jaguars, the first team since the 2008 Dolphins to win a division the season after having the league’s worst record. Pederson also shines in the postseason, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS, including 5-0 ATS as a playoff dog. Coupled with the fact that Wild Card home pick or dogs are 12-3 ATS, look for the Bolts to short-circuit here. |
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01-14-23 | Seahawks v. 49ers -9.5 | 23-41 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Home teams in their initial NFL playoff game who lost at home in a conference championship game last season are 27-2 SU and 21-7-1 ATS in Game One in these contests if they won a dozen of more games last season. The Seahawks enter as one of seven playoff teams this year that missed the postseason in 2021. However, double digit dogs in the Wild Card round with same-season revenge are just 1-5 ATS – which makes for only one way to look here. |
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01-09-23 | TCU +13 v. Georgia | 7-65 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The fortuitous Bulldogs, who are 28-3 with QB Stetson Bennett behind center, will be looking to become the first team to repeat as a national champion since the inception of the CFP nine years ago. However, the double-digit line leaves some wiggle room for TCU backers, as the favorite in CFP championship games is 3-5 ATS all time, including 0-2 SUATS versus non-undefeated foes coming off a SU underdog win. Then there’s the 0-4 SUATS failure of the four defending champions who found their way back to the championship game the following season (see Alabama last year). Additionally, Dykes is 10-5 SU and 11-3-1 ATS when his team sports a .900 or greater win percentage and are taking on undefeated foes, including 7-0-1 ATS after scoring 39 or more points in their last game. Let’s also not forget that .750 or greater double-digit bowl dogs coming off a SU underdog win are 5-0 ATS the last fifteen years, and bowl dogs of more than 12 points are 7-0 ATS versus .900 or greater opponents the last ten years. |
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01-08-23 | Lions +5 v. Packers | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Detroit walks onto Lambeau Field having won seven of their last nine games, and at 8-8 on the season will not only need to beat the 8-8 Packers today but will also need the 8-8 Seahawks to lose against the 5-11 Rams. Sure, while this happening is unlikely, either way the 2022 season has been a resounding success for Dan Campbell and the Lions. Adding to the karma, the Lions are 9-0 ATS in their last nine division dukeouts, but the Packers are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS as a host in this series when Detroit is coming off a win. Given the fact that no team has ever made the NFL playoffs after a 1-6 start, and the Packers own the clearest path to the playoffs (they own the tiebreaker over Seattle), we don’t see them losing this contest. Covering it is another matter. |
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01-08-23 | Chargers v. Broncos -165 | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chargers are just 9-27 SU as visitors in this series, including 5-23 outright when they sport a win percentage of less than .666. Couple that with a deeply disappointed Denver crew looking to end a sour season on an uptick that stands17-8 SU and 21-3-1 ATS as a home dog when coming off a division contest, including 14-1-1 ATS versus sub .700 opponents, and we have your winner. |
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01-08-23 | Patriots +8 v. Bills | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What we know for sure is that the Bills’ mental frame of mind is not where it needs to be today. That and the fact they are just 6-16 ATS as a division favorite of 7 or more points, including 1-11 ATS versus greater than .250 opponents. With the Pats 6-1 ATS off a home game against foes coming off a road game, as well as 5-1 ATS when coming off a division home contest, we also know that Bill Belichick is 15-7 SU and 16-6 ATS in final games of the regular season with New England, including 4-0 ATS as a dog. |
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01-08-23 | Browns v. Steelers -140 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
AFC Division Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Pickett pulled another rabbit out of the hat in last week’s thrilling comeback win over the Ravens in Baltimore to keep alive their aforementioned chances outlined above. The trends work in the Burghers favor today, too, as Pittsburgh is 30-8 SU and 24-12-2 ATS at home with a .500 or fewer record when coming off a home game, as well as 7-1 SUATS with revenge in this series, including 6-0 ATS when the Browns sport a losing record. On the other side of the fi eld, Cleveland is 1-11 ATS when coming off a non-division road game and 0-8 ATS in games when both teams are coming off a win. With that, we’ll side with the Black and Gold against Big Brown as they get their revenge today. Finally, consider that Mike Tomlin is 19-5 SU and 18-6 ATS at home in his career in games when both teams are coming off a SUATS win, including 9-0 SUATS from Game 12 out. |
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