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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +6 | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 50 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The insertion of frosh QB Lawrence in game 5 (2,933 passing yards, 65.5%, 27/4) resulted in a 473-97 point edge in Tigers' last 9 games (+127 points ATS). Check holding Notre Dame to its fewest-ever bowl points last week. These teams have been #1 & #2 all season, & rightly so. This contest has it all. Brilliant "O"s & "D"s; 2 of the very best QBs in the land, with a pair of head coaches who've seen it all, & done it all. First time that 2 undefeated teams have met for the College Playoff Title. The incomparable Crimson Tide of Alabama hold a 2-1 SU record over the Tigers of Clemson, but just 1-2 vs the points, including 0-2 ATS in their Title matches, which were of the epic variety. In '15, the Tigers (+6½) held 31-18 first down, & 550-473 yard edges, only to allow TDs on: 50-yard run, 53-yard pass, 51-yard pass, & a 95-yard kickoff return.   |
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01-06-19 | Eagles v. Bears -6.5 | 16-15 | Loss | -102 | 30 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The additions of HC Nagy & LB Khalil Mack have turned the Bears completely around. And how about entering this on a 9-1 run, both SU & ATS, while ranking 1st in scoring defense. The Eagles were floundering, until Super Bowl hero Foles again saved the day: 4-1 as Philly's starting QB, and fresh off a superb 25 straight completion streak. However, he is now hurting (upper body), with his availability of utmost concern. The Bears have been there all year, & get my call. |
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01-06-19 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | 23-17 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quick revenge shot for the Chargers, who were smothered by the Ravens just 2 weeks ago, as Baltimore put the clamps on Philip Rivers, not only with 2 sacks, but by also holding him without a TD pass for the first time all season. And he followed that up with a 1/2 showing vs the Broncos. Thus, a 1/4 mark, after entering with a 31/8 TD/INT ratio after week 14. Also a combined 731-474 yard deficit in Chargers' final 2 games, despite their most wins since 2009. Not so with the Ravens, who are peaking at the right time, behind the leadership of rookie QB Jackson, who is 6-1 SU as a starter, with their only miss coming in OT at Kansas City. Â |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -1 | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Elliott didn't play in Cowboys' season-ending comeback win over the Giants, but Prescott sure did, with his 4th TD pass, along with the 2-point conversion, in the final 1:12. Seventh win in Dallas' last eight games, coming all the way back from 3-5 start, with an accompanying 6-1-1 ATS run. The Seahawks also smoking (9-3-2 LA, off a 2-3 start). Wilson a super 34/6, but he has been sacked 51 times. Many NFL experts are calling the Dallas Cowboys the weakest of the 12 teams in the playoffs. Seems a bit harsh after they held off the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East. The Cowboys were 7-1 at home and 9-3 in the conference. The Seattle Seahawks were 4-4 on the road. Dallas gets revenge. |
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01-05-19 | Colts v. Texans | 21-7 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams have been superb, after horrible starts, as Texans became first team since '92 Chargers to win division, after an 0-3 start, while the Colts are one of only two teams to make the playoffs, after a 1-5 start. Indianapolis has scored 23+ points in 11 of its last 12 games, while Houston is on an 11-2 SU run, as well as a 9-2-2 ATS run. Houston is playing at home which will give them an advantage. Houston was 6-2 at home and 4-2 in the division. The Colts were only 4-4 on the road. |
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01-01-19 | Kentucky +7 v. Penn State | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units For the 4th time in program history, Kentucky is playing in a New Year's Day bowl. This year's highlight is the snapping of a 31-game losing streak to Florida, along with their first winning record in SEC play since that '77 season. RB Snell is their "go-to" guy (1,305 yards & 14 TDs), with QB Wilson a capable 68%, but just 11/8. Obviously, the Wildcats live via their defense, which has held 9 opponents to 20 points, or less (#19 & #6 in total & scoring defense). Last year, Kentucky lost in last 0:37 (failed 2-point try vs Northwestern) in Music City Bowl, so they will not be intimidated |
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01-01-19 | LSU v. Central Florida +7.5 | Top | 40-32 | Loss | -105 | 167 h 8 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Bowl Upset of the Day For the 2nd straight year, the Knights of Central Florida have made it through the regular season unscathed. And for the second consecutive season have been rewarded with a New Year's Day bowl game against an SEC power. A year ago, it was the Peach Bowl, vs the 10-3 & #7 Tigers of Auburn, who were expected to put an end to this false challenger. But things don't always pan out, & didn't in that one, as UCF (+9½) turned a 20-13 deficit in the 3rd, into a 34-20 lead in the 4th, en route to the 34-27 upset. Knight QB Milton was just 16-of-35, but 242 passing yards (2/0), along with 116 rushing yards (8.9 ypr). Before entering that one, the Knights barely got by Memphis, 62-55, in their AAC title game. Ditto this year, as UM (+3) led 38-21 at intermission, with 336 rushing yards, only to go down 56-41, with 65 2nd half rushing yards. Check a 252-134 rushing yard edge over Cincinnati, which out rushed its other 11 opponents. The loss of Milton (knee) on Nov 23rd mattered little as backup QB Mack was 19-of-27 for 348 passing yards & 2/0, while rushing for 4 TDs, with Knights totaling 34 first downs, 350 rushing yards, & 348 passing yards. And they haven't missed a beat, with the replacement of HC Frost, for Heupel. Another "upset"? |
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01-01-19 | Iowa v. Mississippi State -7 | Top | 27-22 | Loss | -106 | 166 h 22 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Bowl Game of the Year Iowa HC Ferentz is 7-8 SU & 9-6 ATS in bowls, but most recently 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS, with 4 wipe out losses in those 6. As usual, the Hawks again depend on their 7th-ranked defense, which more than offsets a 76th-ranked offense, that has topped 159 rushing yards only 4 times. QB Stanley has had his moments (23/9), but just 58.6 %. The Bulldogs finished at 4-1 SU & ATS, with a 160-49 point edge (+75½ points ATS). Fitzgerald is a bit of an heir-apparent to "do-all" QB Dak Prescott, with 1,615 rushing yards (15/7) & 1,018 yards (15 & 12 TDs). Thus, much attention to their offense, & deservedly so, but check ranking 10th, 6th, 3rd, & 1st in run, pass, total, & scoring defense, giving up just 12 TDs in 12 games. |
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12-31-18 | NC State v. Texas A&M -7 | Top | 13-52 | Win | 100 | 150 h 48 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Bowl Game Play of the Day Aggie bowl games exceed simple excitement, with final scores of 52-28, 45-37, 21-27, 28-33, & 52-55 in their last 5. In last year's Belk, A&M led Wake 14-0, trailed 31-14, led 42-41, trailed 48-45, led 52-48, & lost 55-52, in last 2:18, with 636-614 yard deficit. This year was highlighted by its 74-72 seven OT win vs Lsu, behind 6 TD passes from Mond (no picks), who tied it on a 19-yard TD pass at the gun in regulation, along with 198 rushing yards from Williams, who ranks 3rd in the country with 1,524 yards (15 TDs). The Aggies are on a 13-6-2 ATS run, with one of their misses coming by a point in that Lsu contest. The Aggies are 5-2-1 ATS vs bowl teams this season |
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12-31-18 | Missouri -7.5 v. Oklahoma State | 33-38 | Loss | -112 | 146 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Five double-digit win seasons in the last 12 years for the Tigers, & 9th bowl season in last 12 years, with 5-3 SU & 4-4 ATS logs. Four turnovers killed 'em in last year's 33-16 Texas Bowl loss to Texas, with just 1 Lock TD toss, after entering with a nation-best 43 TD passes. He hasn't approached that standard this year (25/8), with an 839-yard drop from last year's 3,964 yards (10th in land; 19th this year). However, Tiger run defense, has come from 60th, to 23rd, holding 6 teams to double digit rushing yards. Oklahoma State's 98th ranked defense was of little help, allowing 37.6 points per game in its last 9 contests. Bucking such a proven bowl entity is frightening, indeed, but unless Gundy & Co figure a way to contain Tigers, I'll do just that. |
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12-31-18 | Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati -5.5 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -106 | 143 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Bowl Game of the Month Tech has been out rushed by 7 of their last 8 opponents, surrendering 465 & 492 rushing yards to Georgia Tech & Pitt. It is the exact opposite for the Bearcats, who've had the overland edge in 11-of-12 games (#14 run offense, #6 run defense). HCs Minter, Dantonio, Kelly & Jones had the 'Cats on a seemingly constant 10+ win run, only to have Tuberville gradually take them down the tube (4-8 in '16), before their transformation, under Fickell (from 4-8 to 10-2 SU, & from 100th & 96th in total offense & defense to 23rd & 7th this year). Ridder (2,359 passing yards, with 19 touchdowns and 4 interceptions), Warren (1,163 rushing yards, 17 TDs), & Lewis (1.4 yards per catch), along with that defense have 'Cats at +110 points ATS for the year. No doubt on this one. |
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12-30-18 | Colts -170 v. Titans | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units This game will decide the #6 seed in the AFC playoffs. And what a game it shapes up to be, as the Titans have won 4 straight, while the Colts have won 8-of-9 (6-0 loss to Jacksonville), & scoring 23+ points in all but 3 games. When the season started, many wondered if Luck would ever play again. Well, try 4,308 passing yards & 36 TDs (just 13 interceptions), with the Colts at 27 points per game. Despite these teams having the same records, Indianapolis has a point differential of +73 while Tennessee's is +23.  |
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12-30-18 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -13 | 24-27 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In the crazy world that is the NFL, anything can happen, with the Cardinals a prime example this season, with 34-0, 45-10, & 45-10 wipe out losses followed by covers of 2, 5, & 17 points vs the Bears, the 49ers, & the Packers. Outside of the fact that they catch the Seahawks off their thrilling upset of the Chiefs, it just doesn't seem feasible. Seattle needs it, entering on a current 8-2-2 ATS run, with a 102-54 point edge in its last 3 home games. Cardinals on a 1-5 spread slide, with an 88-26 point deficit in their last 3 contests. |
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12-30-18 | Eagles -7 v. Redskins | 24-0 | Win | 102 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Here they come. Does anyone want to play these guys in the playoffs? Having the reigning Super Bowl MVP back under center is just what this team needed. Won a classic vs the Texans last week, on that last-second field goal, after blowing a 13-point 4th quarter edge, with Foles simply superb. Check 471 passing yards & 4 TDs, in leading the Eagles to a 519-371 yard edge. You gotta hand it to Gruden & his players for hanging in there, after losing their top 2 QBs at such a crucial point in the year (3 if you count Sanchez). But it ends today. |
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12-30-18 | Jaguars v. Texans -6.5 | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No doubt, the Texans will have one eye on the Patriot/Jet game, as they are tied with the Pats at 10-5. Shows what a healthy Watson can do, despite coming up just short in comeback effort at Philly, losing at the gun, after a pair of Deshaun TD passes in the last 4:41. The Jags & Marrone would love to find the magic from last year & knock one of their rivals out of the coveted first round bye. Doubt it, even though they dominated the Dolphins in Miami last week. Texans are 10-2 SU, as well as 8-2-2 ATS, while Jaguars are 2-9 SU, & 3-7-1 ATS. And the host is 8-3 ATS in Jag games. |
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12-29-18 | Notre Dame v. Clemson -12.5 | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 100 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Four the 4th time in as many years, the Tigers of Clemson have made it into the College Football Playoff. That's what regular season records of 13-0, 12-1, 12-1, & 13-0 will do for you. Dabo Swinney has now compiled a record of 85-11 over the last 7 years, along with a bowl record of 5-1, both SU & ATS, including the '16 upset of Alabama for the National Title. The insertion of frosh Lawrence at QB (2,606 yards, 65%, & 24 touchdowns with only 4 interceptions) has resulted in a 400-94 point edge in Tigers' last 8 games (+109½ points ATS). Not only that, but Etienne ranks 5th in the land with 1,463 rushing yards (8.3 yards per rush) & 21 TDs. And how about CU ranking in the top 9 in 9-of-10 major stat columns? |
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12-29-18 | Florida v. Michigan -6 | Top | 41-15 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 24 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Bowl Game Play of the Day The Wolves were ranked 4th in the land, with a Final Four Playoffs spot a given, if they just took Ohio State in their season finale. Michigan went into that one on a 10-game winning streak by an average score of 39-13. But it wasn't to be, as the Buckeyes (+4) destroyed the Wolves, 62-39, with a 656-401 yard edge. And that vs a Michigan squad whose defense entered at 13.5 points per game, & 234.8 yard per game. Thus, from a playoff spot, to a lesser bowl, while plunging to #8 in the polls. This marks UM's 47th bowl, & 8th in the last 9 years (2-5 SU, & 2-4-1 ATS). No questioning the improvement under Harbaugh (38-14 SU) with the Wolverines finishing 4th, 1st, 3rd, & 1st in total defense, although they are just a 1-2 bowl proposition, spread wise. Opponents state that their devastating loss to the Buckeyes kills any focus or dedication for this contest. However, I remember in '15, when an identical 10-1 Michigan outfit was demolished, 42-13, also in its season finale vs the Buckeyes. Thus, a match with Florida in the Citrus Bowl. Did they care? As noted above, they must have, as they mauled the Gators, 41-7, as a field goal favorite, with a 503-273 yard edge. Mullen's arrival from Mississippi State, has turned Gator fortunes around, with a 6-1 start (5-1 ATS), before ending 3-2 (1-3 ATS), coming from 108th & 78th in scoring & rushing offense, to 25th & 26th, respectively, is a true improvement. But I just can't dismiss that '15 Wolverine bowl bounce back. |
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12-28-18 | Syracuse +100 v. West Virginia | Top | 34-18 | Win | 100 | 121 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Bowl Game of the Year The Mountaineers of West Virginia are going it without their 2 best players, namely All-Big12 OT Cajuste, & All-American QB Grier, who has thrown for 7,354 yards & 71 TDs last 2 years. How valuable is he? Try just 14 points, 9 first downs, 52 rushing yards, & 100 passing yards, with a 498-152 yard deficit, in 30-14 loss to Iowa State, when he was subpar. This marks the Mounties' 37th bowl (15-21 SU), 15th in 16 years, 19th in 22 years, & 22nd in 26 years. Quite an accomplishment, except for the fact that they are currently on a horrible 3-12 ATS run in these contests (0-5 & 1-8 of late, as well as on a 2-6 SU slide), while allowing 30+ points in 8 of their last 9, including last year's Heart of Dallas, trailing 30-6 until the final 1:58. |
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12-28-18 | Auburn v. Purdue +3.5 | 63-14 | Loss | -106 | 74 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This season has been nothing special for Auburn, with just a pair of 2-game winning streaks, never putting back-to-back covers together, with their lone ATS successes in their final 8 games coming vs a defenseless Ole Miss, & upstart Liberty. They rank an alien 69th in rushing offense (6th in '16, 25th in '17), while topping 147 rushing yards just twice (Alabama State & Liberty), while QB Stidham checks in at 77th in passing efficiency (13 touchdowns with 5 interceptions). Their opponents in this contest (Boilermakers of Purdue), are neither bowl novices (19th such affair), nor bowl constants (5th bowl in last 11 years, following a 10-of-11 bowl run under Joe Tiller). This one goes to the final gun. |
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12-27-18 | Miami-FL -3 v. Wisconsin | 3-35 | Loss | -105 | 96 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit CFB Play of the Day Wisconsin has normally been a fine ATS play (9-5 each of last 2 years), they enter with a 3-9 spread log (-75½ points) however. Bowl-wise, this make it 24 bowls in 26 years. This marks the 'Canes' 40th bowl (19-20 SU), but their former "invincible" label no longer applies, with a current 1-6 SU & ATS run since the '09 Champs Sports. For UM, this is a "season of streaks": a 5-0 streak (2-2 ATS) followed by an 0-4 slide (0-4 ATS), & a much-needed 2-0 windup (18 & 16 point covers), with a 293-69 rushing yard edge over Pittsburgh in finale. QB Perry has done well down the stretch, sitting at 13 touchdowns with 5 interceptions, while RB Homer's 6.3 yards per rush have resulted in 969 yards. 'Canes 2nd-ranked passing defense places entire Badger load on Taylor. Don't be afraid to give the points. |
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12-27-18 | Duke v. Temple -3 | 56-27 | Loss | -117 | 74 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Owls of Temple have bid adieu to HC Geoff Collins (GaTech), who steered TU to a pair of bowls in his 2 years, at the helm, while compiling a 15-8 ATS record. As a matter of fact, the Owls are on an awesome 27-9 spread run. This makes it 4 straight bowl seasons for Temple, which seeks back-to-back bowl wins for the first time in school history. They are hurting at QB (Russo: 2,235 passing yards), & RB (Armstead: 1,098 yards, 13 TDs), but both are expected back for this one. WR Wright leads the nation in special-teams TDs (3). Duke comes into this one finishing the season on a 1-5 ATS run by 60 points |
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12-26-18 | Minnesota v. Georgia Tech -5.5 | 34-10 | Loss | -109 | 72 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 'Jackets' 335 rushing yard per game places them atop the rushing category, by a full 32 rushing yard per game edge over #2 Army. This has been the ongoing story since '08. So eleven years, with final rushing offensive rankings of #4 in '08, #2 in '09, #1 in #10, #2 in 11, #4 in '12, #6 in '13, #1 in '14, #8 in '15, #9 in '16, #5, in '17, & #1 in '18. Gophers of Minnesota play in their 20th bowl, & 15th in the last 19 years, losing 7 straight from '05 thru '14, before turning it around with a narrow 21-14 (-6) win over Central Michigan (TD & 2-point conversion in last 4:25 of the '15 Quick Lane); & a 17-12 (+9) upset of Washington State in the '16 Holiday, allowing just 1 TD, that in the last 0:19. This year's hopes depend on a running game led by frosh Ibrahim (936 yards, 7 TDs), as QBs Annexstad & Morgan have combined for just 16 TDs & 13 interceptions. The Gophers have cracked the 200-rushing yard barrier just twice all year, and own a negative 14 turn overs in comparison with the 'Jackets. Straight up winner has covered 11-of-12 Minnesota games. 'Jacket call. |
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12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Broncos came to the Bay Area 2 weeks ago, & gave up a 20-0 first half deficit they couldn't overcome. Because of that, no playoffs for Denver since they won Super Bowl 50 three years ago. Injuries finally caught up. Beat the Chargers & Steelers, and lost to the 49ers & Browns. Go figure. Oakland has lost 6 straight division games. Last week, Carr was 21-of-38, with a TD & no interceptions for 9th straight game (301 attempts): 9/0 in his last 5 games. Now 11+ Charger losses for the first time since '14. Call the upset. |
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12-23-18 | Rams -14 v. Cardinals | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Time for the Rams to turn it around. Seems strange to be saying that about an 11-3 team. But for all of their success, the fact is that they are on a 2-7-1 spread run, with just a 308-276 point edge. And they have a 45-29 point deficit the past 2 weeks. Goff: 2 picks in loss to the Eagles, & now just 27/13 for the year. Are in a battle with the Saints for home field advantage through the playoffs, so a return to earlier form is foremost in McVay's mind. Worst home start (1-6) for Cards, since '57, as the Chicago Cardinals, and doesn't get any better |
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12-23-18 | Texans +2.5 v. Eagles | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No, the Eagles are far from finished, with current 3-1 run taking them to within a game of the Cowboys. Foles did the job at the Rams (270 passing yards, 77.4%). That pushes the dog edge to 14-7 ATS in Philly games. Texans have won 10-of-11 SU, with accompanying 7-2-1 run. And they've covered 5 of their last 6 road games. Watson last week: 22-of-28 for 294 yards, & 2 TDs. |
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12-23-18 | Bucs v. Cowboys -7 | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cowboys don't fool around. From a 5-0 SU/ATS run (+34½ points vs spread), to their first shutout loss in 15 years, 23-0, with only 4 catches for 32 yards from Cooper, a week after 217 & 3 TDs vs Philly. And note Dak coming from 455 passing yards to just 208. And a rushing "D" from 66 yards per game in their previous 5 games, to 179 at Indy. Six straight road losses for the Bucs, after shocking the Saints in their opener. Winston has now lost his last 11 road starts, & Tampa has been eliminated from the playoffs. Dallas bounce backer |
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12-23-18 | Bills v. Patriots -13 | 12-24 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Thirteen straight home wins for the Pats, including playoffs, & have now won 48 of their last 54 home games. Didn't score a TD after their 3rd snap in Pittsburgh last week (63-yard Brady TD pass), with just 3 points in their final 8 drives, as 14 penalties for 106 yards (most since '14) did them in. Need a win, or a Miami loss, for 10th straight AFC East title. Bills are owned by this team & this player, as Brady is 29-3 SU vs Buffalo. Allen won for the 3rd time this year, when Bills are tied or behind, in the 4th. Still no contest |
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12-22-18 | Ravens +4.5 v. Chargers | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a win for Bolts at KC, with 2 TDs in final 3:49, plus the 2-pointer to win it. First time a team has won on a last-second 2-point conversion since the Vikings in '02. That snapped a 9-game losing streak vs the Chiefs. And they did it without Gordon. Ravens have rushed for over 200 yards 4-of-5 games with Jackson under center. First team since '79 Steelers to rush for 190+ yards 5 straight games. Baltimore took 4 of those 5. This could be a preview of a possible January match. Take the points. |
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12-22-18 | Buffalo v. Troy +1 | Top | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 30 h 34 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Units Three straight bowl seasons for the Trojans of Troy, who are on a splendid 31-7 SU run, with HC Brown turning this former doormat into a power, serving notice with a tight 30-24 loss at Clemson, as 35-pt dogs, in '16; & an outright 24-21 win at Lsu, as 20½-pt dogs, in '17. And this year, they upset Nebraska, 24-19. They have a pair of 1,000-yd QBs, as Smith (1,349 yds) took over for an injured Barker in mid season. In Troy's 3 losses, the Trojans committed 4, 3, & 4 TOs. Stay clean, & this one is theirs. |
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12-22-18 | Houston v. Army -4.5 | 14-70 | Win | 100 | 41 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Army returns to the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl looking to add to its eight-game win streak when it faces Houston on Saturday, Dec. 22, at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. The Black Knights, whose seven bowl games have been all been decided by a touchdown or less, beat San Diego State by a touchdown in this bowl last year. The Cougars, making their program-best sixth straight bowl appearance, lost three of their final four games to miss out on the American Athletic Conference title game. Houston's beat-up defense will have its hands full with Army's triple option attack that is ranked second nationally with 296.3 rushing yards. Houston will be without four defensive line starters - All-American Ed Oliver, who announced he would skip the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft, and injured Jerard Carter, Payton Turner and Isaiah Chambers. The Cougars have already faced two of the country's top rushing teams in Navy and Memphis, allowing 344 and 401 rushing yards - respectively - during conference play. |
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12-20-18 | Marshall -2.5 v. South Florida | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the Thundering Herd of Marshall, this marks 6 bowl games under HC Doc Holliday, who, as of now, has never lost one of these classics: 5-0 SU & ATS! A quick glance at the above stats shows a 'Herd "D" that is allowing just 105 rushing yards per game. Right, 9th-best in the land; while USF ranks 123rd in that all important column. But can the 'Herd, & its 87th-ranked rushing "O" take full advantage? QB Green is a steady, if non-spectacular leader: 2,2 37 yards & 15/10. Pretty much along the lines of FSU's Barnett. Home game for Bulls, but can't ignore 'Herd's steady bowl successes. |
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12-19-18 | Ohio v. San Diego State +3 | 27-0 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In a era where wide open passing attacks dominate college football headlines, this will be an old fashioned battle in the trenches. Ohio ranks eighth nationally in rushing offense with an average of 262.2 yards per game and rolled up 38 rushing touchdowns. The Bobcats will be going up against a San Diego State defense that ranks fourth nationally in rush defense behind only Michigan State, Texas A&M and Clemson allowing an average of 94.5 yards per game and 2.75 yards per attempt and has allowed only 14 rushing TDs. The underdog is on a 13-0-1 ATS run in San Diego State games, with 9-of-10 decided by a TD, or less, SU. Â |
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12-18-18 | Northern Illinois v. UAB -2.5 | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 70 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the Blazers, this marks just their 3rd bowl game in history, but also marks their 2nd consecutive holiday trip, which is near miraculous, seeing that UAB disbanded its football program after the '14 season, following a combined 8-year record of 26-70. Last year's bowl resulted in a 41-6 loss to Ohio U in the Bahamas (249-99 rushing yard deficit), losing 20-0 in the first 17:24. However, their 8-4 regular season was remarkable, as 6 games were decided by 5 points or less SU. QB Erdely is their trigger, with 1,539 passing yards, but just a break-even 7/7. He didn't make it in Blazers' Cusa title win over Middle Tennessee, but note that Uab came from a 133-(-1) rushing yard deficit in their regular season match, to a 225-94 rushing yard edge in their title march. And no Erdley for that one, & he is still nursing that injured shoulder. By the way, check a 15-7-1 ATS log for Uab since its reinstating. |
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12-17-18 | Saints -6 v. Panthers | 12-9 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Third straight road game for the Saints, who came up big for us last week in Tampa, with a 25-0 2nd half edge, & though Drew was only 1/1 (31/4 for the year), he was a nice 77.4%. Second straight division title for the Saints, as their defense came up big (4 sacks, & allowing only 81 2nd-half yards). Five straight losses for Panthers (SU & ATS), with McCaffrey their lone bright spot (2 more TDs & 101 total yards). That's 12 TDs in his last 7 games. New Orleans is on a 10-1 ATS run, so not about to call free-falling Panthers' number. |
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12-16-18 | Seahawks -3.5 v. 49ers | 23-26 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Great win for the 49ers, over a Bronco team with everything to play for, snapping a 3-game losing streak in the process. San Francisco is now 6-1 in December, under Shanahan, but also 1-9 vs the NFC West under Shanahan. Check TE Kittle with 7 grabs for 210 yards, including an 85-yd TD last week, the most for the Niners since T.O. in 2000. Seahawks are in off their Monday Nighter with the Vikings, but are on a 7-1-2 ATS run, & have beaten the Niners 10 straight. SanFran "D": 27+ points in 9-of-12. |
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12-16-18 | Cowboys +3 v. Colts | 0-23 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Huge playoff implications here. These 2 squads came up big last week, with the Colts at Houston & the Cowboys in OT over the champs. 'Boys can clinch an NFC East title with a win here, as they now have longest active winning streak in the NFL, with 5 straight. Check Dak with 455 passing yards & 3 TDs. Zeke 113 rushing yards & 79 yards receiving. Cooper: 217 receiving yards & 3 TDs. Dallas is 9-1-1 ATS as an AFC road dog of less than 8 points. Upset |
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12-16-18 | Titans v. Giants +1.5 | 17-0 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a night for Henry, in Titan rout of Tampa, with 238 rushing yards on 16 carries, including that 99-yard classic. He ended up with 4 TDs (3, 99, 16, 54 yards), tying franchise record held by Earl Campbell & Lorenz White. No player in the Super Bowl era rushed for 200+ yards, & 4+ TDs on less than 21 carries. Giants completely dominated decimated Redskins (up 40-0), & are on a 5-0 ATS run, while averaging 31.4 points per game. Another 170 rushing yards from Barkley on only 16 carries. Titans have a 72-17 point deficit in their L2 road games |
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12-16-18 | Lions v. Bills -2.5 | 13-14 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units - Lions are in off their fewest points allowed since 2 14, in 17-3 win over the mighty Cards, although posting just 1 offensive TD ("pick-6"). Bills let another one get away in the 4th quarter vs the Jets. Over their past two games, the Bills have 48-30 first down, 376-138 rushing yard , & 783-423 total yard edges, but 21-17 & 27-23 losses to show for their troubles. Their 2nd ranked defense should be able to put the clamps on a Lion offense that is averaging 16.3 points per game in their last 7 games |
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12-15-18 | Arizona State v. Fresno State -4 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Bowl Game Play of the Day Fresno State has been a dream to their backers, as they are currently on a 19-6 spread run, while compiling a 22-6 SU run since Tedford took over as HC in '17. All he did was inherit a squad which was fresh off a 1-11 record in '16 (0-10 windup), as well as a 3-9 log in '15. He simply duplicated what he had done for Cal in '02, when he took over a 1-10 team, immediately turning it into a 7-5 outfit. Led by McMaryion (3,453 yards, 70%, 25/3), & WR Johnson (1,307 yards), Fresno is seeking its first-ever 12-win season. For the Sun Devils of Arizona State, this marks their 30th bowl game, standing at 14-14-1 SU, but on a current 4-9 SU & ATS run. |
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12-15-18 | North Texas +8.5 v. Utah State | 13-52 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the Mean Green Eagles of North Texas, this makes 3 consecutive bowl seasons, & 4-of-5. QB Fine compares favorably, with 3,734 passing yards, 64.6%, & 27/5, with 942 yards (14 TDs) from RB Torrey, & WRs Bussey & Guyton at 15.0 & 14.0 yards per catch. Note that the Eagles are the only team in the land to out gain every opponent. Ag coaching change tightens it up. |
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12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks -3 | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Seattle Seahawks saw any hopes of winning the NFC West evaporate when the division-rival Los Angeles Rams opened the season 8-0. The Seahawks' playoff chances also appeared to take a major hit after back-to-back losses to both Los Angeles teams, but they have bounced back and carry a three-game winning streak into tonight's contest against the visiting Minnesota Vikings. Seattle posted three-point victories over Green Bay and Carolina before routing San Francisco last week to vault into the fifth playoff spot in the NFC - one-half game ahead of Minnesota. Minnesota a horrible 0-7 ATS on the road on a Monday, while Seattle is 7-1 as a Monday single digit favorite. I'll back the squad which is currently on 7-1-2 run. |
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12-09-18 | Broncos -3 v. 49ers | 14-20 | Loss | -125 | 28 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Three straight wins for the Broncos. As long as Keenum doesn't throw a pick, they win. Another stellar performance from RB Lindsay: 157 yards (career-high), & 2 more TDs (6 & 65 yards). He now has over 1,000 yards from scrimmage: first undrafted rookie in franchise history to do that. First 3-game winning streak for Vance Joseph (+8 turn overs in those 3). Four straight seasons with 10+ losses for first time in Niner history, with a 3-32 record in last 35 games without Garoppolo. Broncos still alive in Wild Card chase |
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12-09-18 | Patriots v. Dolphins +9 | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pats have clinched a winning record for the 18th straight season. And have won 8 of their last 9 outings. What else is new? Brady: now 579 TD passes, tying him with Manning for most of all time. And try 250 wins for Belichick as Pats HC. Dolphins in off lucky win over Bills, although Tannehill did toss 3 TD passes. That's 8 straight home wins for Miami, with him at the controls. Host is on a 14-3-1 ATS run in Dolphin games. And another |
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12-09-18 | Colts v. Texans -4 | 24-21 | Loss | -117 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Colts were at 34.2 points per game in 6 games, previous to 6-0 loss to the Jags, snapping their 5-game winning streak. Now must take on a Texan team which has won 9 straight, after an 0-3 start. Amazing. Were up 23-0 at the half vs the Browns, with Watson now at 11 TDs & just 2 picks in his last 5 games. Texans are also +54½ points in their last 6 games, & enjoy a 3-game lead over the Colts & Titans. Would you believe that the Colts are 0-10 ATS as a .500+ avenging road dog vs an opponent off 2 SU wins. |
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12-09-18 | Ravens v. Chiefs -6 | 24-27 | Loss | -111 | 25 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Three straight wins for the Ravens, on heels of 3-game slide, dominating the Falcons (366-131 total yards), holding Atlanta to 34 rushing yards, while sacking Ryan 3 times. Jackson only 125 passing yards, but another rushing TD in his first road start. Now just ½ game behind Pitt. KC in off big win, after releasing star RB Hunt. Mahomes: another 4 TD passes, & now at 41/10. Chiefs at 30+ points 10-of-12 games (26 & 27 points in other 2). KC is 5-2 ATS vs Baltimore, while the Ravens are 1-9 ATS non-division dogs of 6+ points. |
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12-03-18 | Redskins +6 v. Eagles | 13-28 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Champs can breathe a sigh of relief after last-minute win vs the Giants. That's 9-of-10 vs the Giants. An impressive 5-minute game-winning drive by Wentz & Co to get that "W"Â Note that the Eagles are scoreless in the first quarter in 9 of their 11 games this season. McCoy's 3 picks killed the Redskins on Thanksgiving, but if they had called that "helmet-to-helmet" that Reed received, with 1:30 left, you never know. The dog is 15-4 ATS in Eagle contests while the 'Skins covered their previous road game by 16 points. |
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11-25-18 | Packers +3.5 v. Vikings | 17-24 | Loss | -120 | 96 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins is just 9-15-1 SU in division games in his NFL career, including 2-7-1 SU and 2-8 ATS the last ten games. With the Packers currently the No. 9 seed in the NFL playoff picture, and the Vikings the No. 6 seed, this becomes do-or die time for Mr. Rodgers. Green Bay QB Rodgers is 42-15-1 SU and 38-20 ATS in his career in division games, going 17-4 SUATS in division games when coming off a loss, including 6-0 ATS away. Â |
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11-25-18 | Dolphins v. Colts -9 | 24-27 | Loss | -105 | 119 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Third straight home game for the Colts. Luck is lighting it up: 23-of-29 for 297 yards & 3 TDs vs the Titans (QB rating of 143.8). He is now an eye-popping 29/9. And check Hilton with 9 catches for 155 yards & 2 TDs. And the 210th regular-season win of Vinatieri's career: an NFL record, breaking George Blanda's record. It's all about home field advantage, as far as Miami is concerned. Home team is 7-1 & 13-3 ATS in Dolphin games. Thus Miami is 0-5 ATS away, by 49½ points, allowing 34.5 points per game in its last 4 road games. Any questions? |
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11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers UNDER 47.5 | 30-27 | Loss | -109 | 116 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game, 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game,4-1 in Seahawks last 5 road games, and 13-6 in Seahawks last 19 vs. NFC. While the under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Carolina. |
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11-25-18 | Browns v. Bengals UNDER 47.5 | 35-20 | Loss | -109 | 116 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and 13-6 in Browns last 19 games in November. While the 9-8 in Bengals last 27 games following a ATS win, 14-6 in Bengals last 20 vs. a team with a losing record, and 14-6 in Bengals last 20 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. |
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11-25-18 | Browns +3 v. Bengals | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 74 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Line opened at Cincinnati minus 3, and is still minus 3. There is no love lost between these 2 intra-state rivals. There are a few teams which are in the mix for the most improved, with these Browns definitely one of those outfits. Sure, just a 3-6-1 mark, but the could easily read 7-3, with three 3-pt losses, & that opening day tie with the Steelers. Finally some stability at QB, with emergence if rookie Mayfield: 1,984 yards, 62%, & 13 touchdowns with 7 interceptions. Bengals are falling fast, with current 1-4 SU & ATS run, after opening at 4-1, as Dalton has thrown 10 picks, & wide receiver Green just week-to-week. |
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11-24-18 | Notre Dame -10.5 v. USC | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -107 | 102 h 13 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Inter-Conference Game of the Week Just one more, & the Irish are in the playoffs. Book is back (23-of-37 for 292 passing yards vs Syracuse). Notre Dame has topped 30 points 7-of-8, & held a 300-yd rushing yard edge over Troy last year. Only 97 & 112 rushing yards for Trojans the L2 weeks, who are 3-11 ATS (1, 4, 1 point covers), & Daniels just 15 touchdown with 12 interceptions. |
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11-24-18 | South Carolina v. Clemson -26 | 35-56 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Two straight 1-point covers for Tigers, but still a 302-49 point edge in their L6 games (+110 points ATS), & in off holding Duke's 31-points per game offense to a pair of field goals. South Carolina's L5 lined games decided by 2, 3, 3, 4, & 4 points SU. Highly questionable rushing offense & defense, & won't stay in this one. Lay it. |
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11-24-18 | Auburn v. Alabama -24 | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 94 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units That's right, a 10-10 tie at the half in 'Bama's 50-17 win over Citadel. Tagovailoa 16-of-22 last week, 340 passing yards, with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Now 2,865 yards with 31 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. Tigers have a 615-254 point edge in their last 20 games, but were 99th in total offense, before rout of Liberty. All-out war, but 'Tide has no equal. A romper! |
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11-24-18 | Temple -30.5 v. Connecticut | 57-7 | Win | 100 | 50 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Line opened at Temple minus 29, and now minus 30.5. Owls are always one of the top plays on the board over the final few weeks of the season, Check 7-1, 5-3, 5-2, 7-0, & 5-1 spread windups since '13. This season, they were on 6-0 ATS run, before dropping 2 of their last 3 games, by just 2 & 3½ points! Sure, the weight on this one is heavy, but reason enough, not only due to the consistent line success of the Owls, but also the ineptitude of this UConn squad, which fields the WORST defense in the nation, including last week's 34 first downs, 415 rushing yards, & 657 this year marks of then 2-7 East Carolina. A romper! |
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11-24-18 | Pittsburgh +5.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -104 | 98 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit ACCC Game of the Week Panthers have clinched their first ACC title game berth, with 28-3 2nd half edge at Wake (470-285 yard edge). Have reached 200+ rushing yards 9 times this year, & are on 6-0 ATS run (+107½ points). Miami snapped 4-game slide, with a 28-0 windup last week. On 5-14 ATS run. Grab the points. |
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11-24-18 | Georgia Tech v. Georgia -17 | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 90 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Four straight SU wins for 'Jackets, & 6-of-7. Still tops in the land in rushing "O", but have allowed 27+ points in 5 of last 6 outings. 'Dawgs "always there". Have held 15 foes under 15 points since last year, & have topped 35 points 8 times already this year. Also on an 18-6-1 ATS run. Ditto. |
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11-23-18 | Washington v. Washington State -2.5 | 28-15 | Loss | -119 | 75 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Four straight series romps for Huskies, who may have gotten their mojo back, with last week's rout of Oregon State (Browning 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, Gaskin 135 rushing yards). But Washington State &, behind Minshew (473 yards & 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions last week; 4,325 yards & 36 touchdowns with only 7 interceptions this year), brilliant host. Winner to Pac12 title game. |
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11-23-18 | Central Florida -14 v. South Florida | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 70 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Line opened at Central Florida minus 13½, and is now minus 14. This team just goes on-&-on. Now 23 straight wins, climbing to the Number 8 spot in the nation. Remember last year, when the Knights were given a New Year's Day bowl slot, as a semi-reward for their perfect season, only to prove their worth with a 34-27 Peach Bowl upset of an Auburn team which was ranked #4 in the land, before losing its SEC title game with Georgia. CF QB Milton at 24 touchdowns with only 5 interceptions, while its running game ranks 4th in the land. Can South Florida beat us 3 weeks straight? Stats unequivocally say they cannot. |
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11-23-18 | Akron v. Ohio -23 | Top | 28-49 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 3 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit CFB Play of the Day Zip QB Nelson back, but just 2 field goals vs Bowling Green, & a 794-317 yard deficit in their L2 games. Ohio just the opposite, with 339 rushing yards per game in their L5 games, & in off 646-277 yard edge vs 9-2 Buffalo. And Ohio is +88½ points ATS at home. |
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11-22-18 | Falcons v. Saints -13 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating:Â 2 Units Who are these guys? The scary thing is that the Saints actually took it easy on the Eagles. Nine straight wins for this machine. Can anyone beat them in this building in January? Try 564 yards vs Philadelphia, & have scored at least 40 points for the sixth time this season. Brees putting up video game numbers, every week (another 363 yards & 4 TDs last week). And he now has 23 games with at least 4 TD passes & no interceptions. He now stands at 25 TDs & 1 pick. And how about 77%! Brutal home loss for Falcons vs Cowboys last week, & now they have to face this team. Until it all changes stay with the Saints. |
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11-19-18 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Rams | 51-54 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oh, what a game this should be, with the 2 premier NFL squads going at it. Both are 9-1 straight up, with those setbacks coming by just 3 & 10 points (late 10-0 deficit) to the mighty Patriots & Saints. I've always extended such contests to a possible upcoming February match, with this one definitely in that category. Check the passing stats. Right, Mahomes & Goff sit atop the passing column, with 3,150 yards (31/7) & 3,154 yards (22/6) respectively. RBs Gurley & Hunt, etc. Electrifying. Reid as a dog is key |
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11-18-18 | Eagles v. Saints -7.5 | 7-48 | Win | 103 | 27 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No letup in sight for this train. Saints have won 8 straight games, covering their last 7 Home or away. Chalk or dog. Or any combination thereof. Makes little difference. Check 5 TDs in their first 5 possessions vs the Bengals. Only 3 incompletions for Brees (22-of-25: 88%), with 5 total TDs. Another? Okay, how about 21 first downs by halftime! By the way, Drew is now 21/1 & 77.3%. Eagles were playing catch up all night in their home loss to the Cowboys, unable to stop a team which has been struggling, offensively. So 3 straight home losses for defending champions. Philly is 2-12 ATS vs opposition off 2+ SU/ATS wins. Simply can't buck the Saints |
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11-18-18 | Texans -2.5 v. Redskins | 23-21 | Loss | -125 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Texans breathed a huge sigh of relief before their bye week, when that field goal by the Broncos went wide right, thereby overcoming a missed PAT that put them in that position. That's 6 straight wins for Houston, taking up where they left off with Watson's season-ending injury last year. His status is firmly established: now has 36 career TD passes, with the only QBs to get there quicker: Marino & Warner. 'Skins took advantage of Bucs' red zone ineptitude last week (now +11 in all-important TO ratio). Texans 5-0 ATS as road favorites of 3 points or less. |
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11-18-18 | Cowboys +3.5 v. Falcons | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The home side will be more comfortable, today, but Dallas may have turned the corner Sunday with a more aggressive offensive posture, acting as if they weren’t afraid of making errors of commission, starting well, maintaining competitive position throughout and working behind a clean game from Dak Prescott and 151 rushing yards from Zeke Elliott to out-finish the favored Eagles at the Linc. Obtaining Amari Cooper (6 receptions, for 75 yards) looks to have been a very good idea, if an expensive one. Cowboys may be two games behind the Redskins, but will have their chance against them, on Thanksgiving. |
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11-18-18 | Bengals v. Ravens -3.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A pair of smoking teams here. Cincinnati the most recent victim of that Saints machine, while Bengals now have the dubious distinction of being the only team to give up 500+ yards in 3 straight games. And that offense is not much better, with Andy going 12-for-20 for just 153 yards & 2 picks. After that nice start, he has settled in with an 18/10 TD/INT ratio (bad). Three straight losses for Baltimore, as Ravens were dominated at home vs the Steelers, in all facets, before their bye, giving up a 7-minute TD drive, to start the 2nd half, managing just 1 TD for the afternoon. But that Raven "D" ranks as #1 in the NFL |
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11-17-18 | Nevada -14.5 v. San Jose State | 21-12 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Unit Still kicking myself for leaving Nevada off rated plays in destruction of Colorado State. On 4-0 ATS run (+63½ points), with Gangi at 280 passing yards per game and 20 touchdowns with 7 interceptions on the season. San Jose State a 718-127 rushing yard deficit L2 weeks. Resembles last year. |
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11-17-18 | Utah State -28 v. Colorado State | Top | 29-24 | Loss | -114 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit CFB Mismatch Game of the Week Most potent offense in Utah State school history: 804 yards last week (40 first downs). Now on a 7-1-1 ATS run, by 116 points. Rams on a 3-12 spread slide, with a 523-94 rushing yard deficit L2 weeks. No way this stays close. |
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11-17-18 | Utah -7 v. Colorado | 30-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sweetly balanced Utes (232 rushing yards, 262 passing yards last week), with a 10-0 edge in L6:48 to take Oregon, 32-25. Lost their last road game by 25 points ATS, but Buffs failing by the week, losing L5 games SU, after opening year at 5-0. They've lost their L2 home games by 31½ & 18 points ATS. Utes 22-9 ATS away |
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11-17-18 | Middle Tennessee State +16.5 v. Kentucky | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Line opened at Kentucky minus 14, and is now minus 16.5. Quite season for the 'Cats, who climbed to the 11th spot in the land, despite a less than potent offense, rather doing it with a defense which ranked 10th in total "D" thru 8 games. But that has all vanished, especially overland, where they've come from allowing just 110 yards per game, to ceding 273 rushing yards per game over the last 2 outings. And note a current 1-4 spread run. The Raiders, on the other hand, have covered 5 of their last 7, with 1 of those 2 misses by ½ point. Have won their last 3 games by a combined score of 128-59 (+38 points ATS). |
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11-17-18 | Michigan State -1 v. Nebraska | 6-9 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units 'Huskers have covered 5 straight, playing with abandon (193-174 point edge), with enviously balanced "O". But note last weeks 383-316 rushing yard deficit in 2-point cover vs Illinois. Spartan loss to Ohio State result of starting at own 5, 6, 3, 1,& 2 in 2nd half. Covered L2 road games by 17½ & 18 points |
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11-17-18 | Pittsburgh -6.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit CFB Game of the Week Loved Pitt's rout of Virginia Tech, piling up 654 yards in the process (Ollison: 235 rushing yards). Panthers on 5-0 ATS run, by 92½ points, & at 410 rushing yards per game the L3 weeks. Wake slowing it down (lack of depth). Took NC State in L6:10, but have allowed 39.8 points per game in their last 5 games. More of same |
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11-17-18 | South Florida v. Temple -13.5 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 21 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit CFB Play of the Day Nothing but superlatives, as far as Owls are concerned: 26-8 ATS (7-1 ATS LA: 2-point miss); 1,207 yards L2 weeks, vs Central Florida & Houston. Bulls a 133-74 point deficit L3 games, with 606-191 rushing yard deficit the last 2 |
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11-17-18 | TCU v. Baylor -2 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Big-12 Game of the Week Line opened at Baylor minus 1, and is now minus 2. How the pendulum doth swing. A near complete turnaround for these 2 this season. For the Bears, they've gone from last year's 1-11 log, to this season's 5-5, needing this for bowl eligibility. And for the Frogs, they've come from a perennial bowl squad (11-3 in '17), to a team which has been the victim of countless key injuries, resulting in a 4-6 log, with current spread runs of 0-7 & 1-10, failing to reach the 300-yard offensive plateau in 3 of their last 4 games, & are in off 47-10 loss to West Virginia (25-point ATS loss), while Bears pulled upset of Oklahoma State in their last home game. I'll lay the 2. |
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11-12-18 | Giants v. 49ers -3 | 27-23 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seems a lifetime ago, when these 2 went at in the playoffs, on a consistent basis. Did they ever play some classic January games. Five straight losses for the Giants & 4-21 in their last 25 games, giving up 7 sacks & coughing up 2 more turn overs vs the 'Skins before their bye. Lone bright spot: Beckham with 7 grabs for 125 yards. What a debut for Niners' Mullins: 262 passing yards & 3 TDs, with his 151.9 passer rating highest for a QB in his debut, since the 1970 merger. Throw in 8 sacks vs the hapless Raiders, & Mostert: 12.3 yards per rush. Giants are 0-9 ATS as Monday non-division dogs. |
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11-11-18 | Chargers -10 v. Raiders | 20-6 | Win | 103 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let's face it, the Raiders are brutal, with their only win this season coming in host role vs the Browns. But they needed OT, along with a very questionable spot at the end of that one. Four straight losses, with an 85-point deficit. This team can't get to Vegas quick enough. Balanced offense for Bolts in Seattle last week: 113 rushing yards from Gordon (7.1 yards per rush); 124 receiving yards from Allen; & another 2 TDs from Old Man Rivers ,as he completed his 200th straight start, joining the Manning brothers, & of course, Brett Favre. Visitor is now 32-11 ATS in Charger games. |
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11-11-18 | Redskins v. Bucs UNDER 51 | 16-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units The Under is 7-2 in Redskins last 9 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points, 20-6 in Redskins last 26 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Under is 7-2 in Redskins last 9 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points, and 9-3 in Redskins last 12 games overall. While the Under is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 10-4 in Buccaneers last 14 home games. |
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11-11-18 | Cardinals v. Chiefs UNDER 50 | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Under is 23-7-1 in Chiefs last 31 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, 47-20-1 in Chiefs last 68 home games, and 11-5-2 in Chiefs last 18 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. While the Under is 8-2 in Cardinals last 10 games on grass. |
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11-11-18 | Falcons -5.5 v. Browns | 16-28 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Will things ever turn around for this tortured fan base? Mayfield last week: 29-of-42 for 297 yards (2/1, and now 10/7 for the season). Cleveland "D" gave up TDs on the Chiefs' first 3 possessions. So its quick start is levelling off, with 4 straight losses, including 38-14, 33-18, & 37-21 rompers. Falcons dominated from the opening whistle in their win over the Redskins, looking like the team that steamrolled its way to the Super Bowl 2 years ago. Ryan: 350 passing yards & 4 TDs. Now at 2,685 yards & 19/3. And first time with over 100 rushing yards since Week 2. Falcons have always been streaky. Again. |
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11-11-18 | Saints -5 v. Bengals | 51-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Great AFC/NFC match up here. Seven straight wins for the Saints (6 straight covers), as Brees just keeps going on-&-on. Four more TDs (346 passing yards) in that win over previously unbeaten Rams. Now at an incredible 18/1, & 76.3%. Three more TDs for Kamara, & Thomas with 211 yards receiving (new Saints record). Cincinnati came from a 45-10 loss vs the indomitable Chiefs, to 37-34 win over the Bucs, nearly blowing all of a 27-6 lead. Mixon: 123 yards in that one, with Dalton solid 21-of-34 for 280 yards & no picks (2 TDs). Two division on deck, & Cincinnati "D": 31+ points 5-of-6. Saints call. |
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11-10-18 | Florida State v. Notre Dame -17.5 | 13-42 | Win | 100 | 97 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Irish still perfect, although no cover in a month. Led NW 24-7 in 4th last week, but needed a 23-yard run in final 2:45 for the push, despite a 464-249 yard edge. For 'Noles, it's overhead, or bust, as they've amassed a combined 3 rushing yards the L2 weeks. & are on a 6-14 ATS run. Again. |
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11-10-18 | South Florida v. Cincinnati -12 | Top | 23-35 | Push | 0 | 97 h 38 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit CFB Game of the Week Line opened at Cincinnati minus 12, and is still minus 12. Guess who popped into the weekly Top 25 polls this week? Right, these Bearcats, who are more than deserving, despite their level of competition. They've been a huge step ahead of the odds makers all season. Just one slip, & that in narrow road loss to always dangerous (& underrated) Temple. Last week, they demolished a Navy team, 42-0, & in so doing, kept the Mids out of the end zone, which hadn't happend to them since '12. Cincy: a 451-171 yard edge, as well. The Bulls of South Florida have had the rug pulled out, with the departure of Flowers. Weekly squeakers, have evolved into 98-51 point deficit the last 2 weeks. |
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11-10-18 | Auburn v. Georgia -14 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 97 h 33 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Game of the Week Line opened at Georgia minus 14½, and is now minus 14. Are their anymore non-believers in the brilliance that of this 'Dawg squad? Sure, their lopsided loss at Lsu didn't help, but that was simply a classic SEC home upset, which makes that league so special. Truth is, the 'Dawgs are still very much in the mix for the National Title playoffs, currently ranking 5th. Thus, no possibility of anything but full focus. A week ago, they simply crushed Kentucky's highly ranked rushing "D", with a 331-84 RY advantage, while the Tigers have run only on OleMiss' sieve "D", & have topped 33 points in 7-of-8 games. |
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11-10-18 | San Jose State v. Utah State -31 | 24-62 | Win | 100 | 92 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Line opened at Utah State minus -29½, and is now minus 31. The Aggies have turned from whipping boys, to solid plays very quickly. Eight straight wins, (43.4 points per game in that run), with an accompanying 6-1-1 spread log (+109 points), Check last week's 56-17 stomping of Hawaii, & they've owned Spartans of San Jose State, covering 6 of last 7 in that series. The Spartans enter off a 424-71 rushing yard deficit, at Wyoming, & now have a 1,139-307 RG deficit in their last 4 outings, as they field the worst rushing offense in the nation. |
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11-10-18 | Michigan -38.5 v. Rutgers | 42-7 | Loss | -115 | 92 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a defense! Wolves held Penn State's 484 ppg "O", to just 11 FDs & 186 yards, in that 42-7 stomping. Eight straight wins, while seeking first Big-10 title since '04. Two straight covers for Knights (16 & 17 points), but a 317-72 rushing yard deficit last week, & a 417-151 point deficit in L12 lined games |
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11-10-18 | Washington State -6 v. Colorado | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 92 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Two killer losses for Buffs, with an 80-37 point deficit, since 31-3 lead over Oregon State. Four straight losses, after 5-0 start. Just 40 rushing yards last week. Coogs: first 8-1 start since '02, taking Cal in L0:32, with another 334 Minshew passing yards (391 pg). Washington State on road this year: 41, 36, 56, 41 points (4-0 ATS). |
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11-10-18 | Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh -3 | Top | 22-52 | Win | 100 | 93 h 59 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit ACC Game of the Week Panthers in the groove, winning & covering 4 straight (+65½ points). Came from 191 rushing yards per game to 369 rushing yards per game in the L2 weeks. Hall vs Cavs LW: 229 rushing yards (12.1 yards per rush) & 3 TDs. Four straight home losses for Hokies (1st time since '92). Scorched for 309 rushing yards per game in their L3 & 0-4 ATS by 50½ points. |
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11-10-18 | Purdue -11.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 54 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Big-10 Play of the Day Pair of spread setback for Boilers, on the heels of 5-0 ATS run. Beat Iowa on FG in L0:08, & in doing so posted their 3rd win over a ranked team. Blough: 3 TDs. Visitor now 37-15 ATS in Purdue tilts. Minnesota got its comeuppance in 33-point line loss at Illinois. Ceding 43 points per game their L6 games |
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11-09-18 | Fresno State -3 v. Boise State | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Broncos an unheard of home dog here, but haven't really impressed. Rypien LW: from 321 passing yards per game, to 214 in narrow escape over Byu, as a 2-TD favorite. Bulldogs on 18-3 ATS run, holding a 184-40 point edge in their L5 contests, with QB McMaryion at 20 touchdowns with only 3 interceptions. Lay the points. |
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11-09-18 | Louisville v. Syracuse -20.5 | 23-54 | Win | 100 | 72 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Syracuse continuing on, reaching 30+ points 7-of-8 lined games. Are +53½ points ATS so far, & are just 2 plays from standing at 9-0 SU. Cards a shell of recent editions. Five straight losses, allowing a staggering 413 rushing yards per game in their last 4 games & are on a 6-18 ATS run by 266 Points! |
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11-05-18 | Titans v. Cowboys -4 | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams in off their bye week. I'm still scratching my head over that "snap infraction" committed by the 'Boys at the end of that 'Skins game that resulted in the game-tying FG hitting the left upright. Never seen it before. Zeke: only 34 rushing yards on 15 carries that one, while Dak was 22-of-35 for 273 yards, with 1 throwing, & 1 rushing TD. Titans missed on 2-pt try in final 0:31 of 20-19 loss to Chargers, in London, 2 weeks ago. Mariota was 24-of-32 for 237 yards & a pick (first red zone pick of his career). Home team is 16-5-1 ATS in Titan games, while the favorite is 12-4-1 ATS in Cowboy tilts. Sways it to 'Boys. |
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11-04-18 | Rams v. Saints +2.5 | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 47 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The QBs in this one are playing at an elite level, with the timeless Brees seeming to get better by the week (18-of-23 in last week's 30-20 win at Minnesota, turning a 13-7 deficit into a 30-13 lead. Drew is now at 14 touchdowns with only 1 interception for the season. Yes, that's right, an actual interception last week. Rams continue to impress, with their best start since 1969. Withstood early & late punches from the Packers, & winning that game, with 3 more Goff TDs (17 touchdowns with 5 interceptions on the year). Aaron Donald: 6 sacks L2 weeks. Gurley 114 rushing yards, etc. If any team can throw in a wrench, it's New Orleans. |
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11-04-18 | Texans +1 v. Broncos | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Line opened at Pick-em, and is now Denver minus 1. Well, it's taken me long enough to finally get on this smoking Texan squad, which has won 5 straight on the field (3-1-1 ATS). A year ago, they were weekly fixtures on my picks, as they were "money" under the leadership of the indomitable Watson, with Houston averaging 39 points per game in his last 5 starts, until a torn ACL (in practice) ended his season, as well as my "meal ticket". A week ago, he completed 5 TD passes, (13, 2, 73, 49, & 2 yards) in 42-23 win over Miami, with balanced 188 rushing yards & 239 passing yards. Broncos up-&-down, but wrong team is favored in this. |
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11-04-18 | Chargers v. Seahawks | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With the potent Chiefs their only real competition in their division, the Chargers have taken a step forward, their only losses coming to Chiefs and those muscular Rams. Respect Seattle’s management, Wilson, and the rest of the ‘Hawks’ roster, and not surprised home side opened marginal chalk here. However, this looms a reasonable schedule spot for the Chargers off their bye, so expect a peak effort, especially given the broad expectation that RB Melvin Gordon’s hamstring will be good to go, here. Rivers, again-&-again. He was 19-of-26 for 306 yards, & 2 TDs (75-yards on the first play from scrimmage, with a 55-yarder to follow). |
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11-04-18 | Chiefs -8 v. Browns | 37-21 | Win | 100 | 43 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Last season, the Browns’ offense gained 4.9 yards per play, one of the lowest in the NFL. This season, the Browns offense is gaining 4.9 yards per play. The main difference in what has made them more competitive is that the 4.9 yards per play is coming with fewer turnovers. But with rookie Baker Mayfield quarterbacking, the turnovers will probably resume coming again. Against a team like the Chiefs, who can score against anybody, they’re liable to come in bunches as the Browns struggle to keep up with offensive personnel not cut out to do it. They were in a shootout at Oakland, and lost. Oakland is a terrible team; the Chiefs are 7-1. |
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11-03-18 | California v. Washington State -10.5 | Top | 13-19 | Loss | -108 | 98 h 53 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit PAC-12 Play of the Day Cougar magic continues, taking Stanford in 0:19, after Minshew completed his first 19 passes in the 2nd half. And Washington State is on a 5-0 ATS run. No offensive TDs for Bears vs Washington, but still a 12-10 win (key: "pick-6"). Solid defense, but no match for Washington State at this site. |
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11-03-18 | Fresno State -24.5 v. UNLV | 48-3 | Win | 100 | 98 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Bulldogs just continue on. Now a 24-4 spread run (6-0 lately), with McMaryion at 18 touchdowns with only 2 interceptions. Balanced offense, & 9th best defense. Vegas a 200-114 point deficit in L4 games, & visitor is 30-16 ATS in UNLV Games. |
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11-03-18 | Oklahoma -12 v. Texas Tech | Top | 51-46 | Loss | -121 | 95 h 21 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Big-12 Game of the Week Raiders always among the offensive leaders (3rd, 6th, 4th in pass, scoring, total). Bowman another 323 passing yards last week, but 1 touchdown with 3 interceptions. Oklahoma never rests. In off a 702-yard effort in destruction of a Kansas State team that took Oklahoma State 31-12. Murray at 2,329 yards (28 touchdowns with 3 interceptions). OU: 18 straight road wins |
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11-03-18 | Alabama -14 v. LSU | Top | 29-0 | Win | 100 | 95 h 18 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Game of the Week Yes, we are fully aware of the fact that this series is rife with brutal, low scoring wars. The Tigers are on a 12-2 ATS run, & at +55½ points ATS in last 3 home games. But also note that Lsu was held without a TD in the L57:37 of its win over Mississippi State. Alabama is always a defensive marvel, but this year they own possibly their best-ever offense. Tagovailoa now 25 touchdowns with 0 interceptions, 70%. Tide rolls |
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11-03-18 | Utah -7 v. Arizona State | 20-38 | Loss | -105 | 91 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Line opened at Utah minus 6, and is now minus 7. 'Devils, under new head coach, Herm Edwards, are a definite step up from past few years, when they had a combined SU log of 18-20. They stand at 4-4 SU, with their 4 losses all coming by exactly the same margin, 7 points (28-21, 27-20, 28-21, & 20-13. So why buck a team that hasn't lost ATS, by more than the current spread on this one? Well, that's the fault of their opponent here, as the Utes enter on a 4-game run, both SU & ATS, covering their last 2 road games by 23 & 21 points, while reaching 40+ points in all 4, with a 977-314 rushing yard edge. Lay the TD. |
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