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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-25-24 | Knicks v. 76ers OVER 204 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Both Games 1 and 2 went over this total, and we expect Game 3 to do the same. We expect another close game and expect both teams to get their points. With the way Game 2 ended, overtime would not be out of the realm of possibility. But we don’t think we will need OT here to cash this ticket. The Knicks are no longer anemic on offense and this team can put up some points. They have scored over 110 in 7 of their last 9 games. They scored 120 or more in four of those. Jalen Brunson is a threat to have a big scoring night at ant time, and he seems like the type of player that will step up in a game like this. We don’t think the Sixers can rely on defense to get the win here. So they will need to execute on offense. We expect both teams to get their share of the total tonight, and both teams should surpass the century mark just as they did in the first two games of this series. |
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04-24-24 | Heat +15 v. Celtics | Top | 111-101 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
Just don’t see the Heat getting blown out by Boston in consecutive games. This total is crazy low at 203.5 at the time of this writing. With such a low total, every point for the underdog is more valuable. We agree this will be a low scoring game and we think the Heat will keep this competitive on the strength of their defense. This Miami team is banged up right now but they play with a lot of heart and are well coached. They will have a plan coming into this game and they aren’t going to just roll over tonight. And we have to remember that it is the Heat who have played in two Finals in recent years while this super team from Boston has been to only one. It’s telling that the bookies have not adjusted the line since the Celtics covered in Game 1 and we think the public is all over Boston here and we will side with the sportsbooks and count on the Miami defense to pull some tricks out of their sleeve and keep this one competitive. |
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04-21-24 | Mavs -1 v. Clippers | Top | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 56 m | Show |
Some say that Dallas will dominate this series and it will be an early end for the Clippers and another disappointing season. But we see this series being long and drawn out, like these teams always tend to do when they meet in the playoffs, The Mavs normally get the early jump on LA, then the Clippers rally late in the series. With word Kawhi Leonard may be able to come back later in the series, this script could play out again. But here for Game 1 we see the Mavs dominating. They are incredibly hot heading into the postseason and they have the upper hand here. The Clippers sputtered down the stretch. We think they will figure some things out later in the series, but Game 1 will be all Dallas. |
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04-14-24 | Hawks v. Pacers -14 | Top | 115-157 | Win | 100 | 1 h 58 m | Show |
This is a very important game for the Pacers. They need to win here to stake their claim to a playoff spot and avoid the play in tournament. If they make the playoffs, they will have plenty of time off before their first round matchup. So they have to go all out here. Atlanta plays mid week in their play in game and all their focus is on that matchup. They don’t want to expend too much energy here or risk injury. And Indiana is a team that can really pour on the points, so we don’t think they will have any trouble getting the cover here. |
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04-12-24 | Jazz v. Clippers -15 | Top | 110-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
It’s fade city for Utah tonight. We sometimes mention a team being Fat and Happy. That is when a poor team gets a big win that wasn’t expected and they usually rest on their laurels and come out flat in the next couple contests. This is the case for Utah tonight as they are on a back-to-back after winning in Houston last night as a double-digit underdog. Utah has a very thin roster with injured starters and this is a very tough back-to-back, no matter who plays for the Clippers. LA has a very deep roster and they have something to play for as seeing is still a factor for the first round. This win for Utah last night was their first in 14 games, and they have covered only four games during this stretch despite very generous odds from the bookies. These teams played here earlier this month, without Kawhi, and the win and cover were never in question for LA. We think this will be a one-sided game from the opening tip. |
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04-11-24 | Knicks -2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 118-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Love the Knicks in this spot. The Celtics have nothing but pride to play for, while the Knicks need this game for seeding, With the new NBA playoff format with the play in tourney, there is no momentum for teams already set in the bracket, so we don’t think Boston cares at all about this game or if they lose out for the regular season as long as they are healthy for the playoffs. The Knicks are legit championship contenders this year and we think they bring their A Game here tonight. |
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04-09-24 | Knicks -4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 128-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
This is a quick revenge spot as the Knicks lost to the Bulls by 8 here on Friday. The Bulls don’t have much chance to rise above the play in tourney, while the Knicks can definitely drop into the play in. So they have the motivational edge tonight along with revenge. They have won and covered in four of the last six meetings, and we will give them a mulligan for the poor performance on Friday and expect them to bounce back strong here. They are also fairly healthy tonight, while the Bulls have a long injury list and could be missing key players tonight. |
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04-02-24 | Cavs v. Jazz +12 | Top | 129-113 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
The Jazz stink and are missing some key players here, but this is simply too many points. The Jazz still have some players that can compete, and they have one of the better home court advantages in the NBA. Despite players in and out of the lineup, they have played well enough at home recently to keep games close and haven’t lost by more than 10 in four straight, including games against the Mavs and Timberwolves. Cleveland has covered in only one of their last seven games, so the oddsmakers have them a bit overvalued recently. We think the home team keeps this one within double digits. |
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03-26-24 | Mavs v. Kings -114 | Top | 132-96 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Dallas has been racking up wins lately, but they have played some bad teams on the road and their toughest matchups at home. We feel they are a bit overvalued in this spot as we had the Kings laying a couple more points in our handicapping. The Kings have been playing well also (also against an easy schedule), and they scored a very impressive win at Orlando two games ago. We think they will be up for this game as these teams have identical records so this is am important game for playoff position. Sacramento has won two straight meetings, and three of four, and has covered in four straight meetings. |
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03-19-24 | Nuggets -7.5 v. Wolves | Top | 115-112 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Minnesota is banged up (Towns is out and Gobert is now questionable for tonight), and they are on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights. We don’t see them doing well against the defending champs, who are playing championship-caliber basketball right now and playing as well as any team in the NBA. They are rested since they had Monday off, and Minnesota has to be running on fumes after a hard-fought game at Utah last night. Minnesota has looked good lately but this line being so large for Denver on the road is very telling, and we think the Wolves run into a buzzsaw tonight and the Nuggets get a comfortable win on the road. These teams also have identical records, so this game will be important for playoff seeding. Another reason for Denver to bring their A Game. |
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03-17-24 | Nets v. Spurs -1.5 | Top | 115-122 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
The Spurs aren’t favored often, but they are a rightful favorite tonight. Brooklyn is at the tail of a long road trip that has seen them go 1-4, with losses to Detroit and Charlotte. They needed a strong showing on this road trip for any hopes of the postseason, but they fell flat on their faces. They probably just want to get home, and we don’t see them suddenly giving an inspired performance here in San Antonio against an improving Spurs team. Brooklyn is also on a back-to-back, and they were run ragged by the Pacers on Saturday in a 20+-point loss. The Spurs were off on Saturday and they will enjoy home court advantage tonight. The Spurs have been underrated by the oddsmakers and they have covered six of nine. This team has been quietly improving all season long and they have some nice players that have been developing. We see them notching a comfortable win tonight. |
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03-15-24 | Magic -8.5 v. Raptors | Top | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Orlando is one of the best ATS teams in the league and they keep quietly getting the job done. They have son six of eight and have covered in every win. Toronto has all sorts of problems and they are not only banged up now but have a major non-hoops related absence tonight. They have lost seven of eight and covered in only two of those games despite some very generous lines from the oddsmakers. The Magic blew the Raptors out in the last meeting and we think there is a very good chance this is another double-digit win as the Magic are healthy and well rested. |
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03-14-24 | 76ers v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Embiid is really an MVP type player and the way the Sixers have fallen apart really shows how much he means to the team. They put up 79 points last time out in a loss to the Knicks, and this will be another tough game for them. No doubt Doc Rivers will want to lay the beat down on his former team. We don’t see the Bucks letting down for this matchup and we expect them to keep hooping until the final buzzer sounds. |
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03-10-24 | Pacers v. Magic -1.5 | Top | 111-97 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
Orlando is by far the strongest ATS team in the league this season and they are being underestimated by the oddsmakers once again. This is a young team and they will have a dud every now and then. That was surely the case last time out as they played one of their worst games of the season, a 98-74 loss at New York. We will give them a mulligan on that one, however, and expect they come out strong here in this one. Indiana has lost three of four and this team has been inconsistent lately. Orlando has held four of six opponents under the century mark and we think that defense wins this matchup on Sunday. |
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03-05-24 | Pistons +11.5 v. Heat | Top | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
Miami has been playing great basketball but we think the oddsmakers have overinflated this number so we have to plug our nose and take the Pistons here. The Pistons had a horrible start to the season and injuries were a major issue. Some felt heading into the season that this team could make the play in. But they ended up setting the NBA record for longest losing streak. But this team has gotten healthy and has been very competitive lately. They are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games. There were a couple of those ATS losses that were close, also. They didn’t play well last time out vs. Orlando so we think we will see a better effort here. And Miami goes on the road after this one to play at Dallas and at OKC on back-to-back nights starting Thursday.  They probably won’t give full effort here and that should play to our advantage. Detroit has covered in seven of the last eight meetings, so they normally get up for this opponent. |
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03-04-24 | Clippers v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
The Clippers have been overrated by the oddsmakers lately compared to their effort on the court and they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10. They come in on a back-to-back after a hard-fought win at Minnesota in a game that probably meant more to the team than tonight’s matchup at Milwaukee from the Eastern Conference. This Clippers squad isn’t the youngest team, so back-to-backs can really take their toll at this point in the season. It doesn’t get any easier with this matchup at the Bucks, who have won and covered five straight and are rounding into postseason form. We think Doc Rivers will do all he can to beat his old team, and the Clippers are definitely looking vulnerable tonight as they have been inconsistent since the all start break and we just think this is a real bad spot for them tonight. |
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03-01-24 | Cavs v. Pistons +9 | Top | 110-100 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
The Cavs haven’t covered in their last seven games. They have been winning quite a bit, but they haven’t been dominating. Detroit has been the opposite as they have been losing but covering as they are exceeding the oddsmaker expectations recently. They have covered in three straight and six out of nine. They have also covered in three straight meetings (all losses), and we think they will play well enough to keep this one close.  |
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02-28-24 | Lakers v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
The Lakers are banged up as LeBron and AD are suffering from various ailments and won’t be 100 percent, although both are expected to play. They better bring their A Game, because the Clippers always do in this matchup. If you have followed our service for a long time, you would know that we always think of this as a one-sided rivalry. The Lakers are the Clippers biggest rival, so they always bring their best. The Lakers have more traditional rivals, so this is just another game to them. In fact, they often like to make it seem like they don’t care at all about the Clippers, and that often shows on the court, as the Clippers have won 12 of 14 meetings, and they have had a lot of success in this series since the early Lob City days. Both squads have been sluggish out of the break, but we are confident the deep Clippers, without George, will bring their best performance to the court tonight. |
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02-27-24 | Pelicans -3 v. Knicks | Top | 115-92 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
The Knicks took all they could handle from the Pistons last night and now this very thin roster finds itself on a back-to-back against a much better squad. We don’t think the slumping Knicks have a chance here. The Knicks have covered in only one of the last five meetings. They have dropped six of their last nine overall and those three wins were not against quality opponents (the Sixers are banged up now also). The Pels get it done tonight with a comfortable win. |
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02-15-24 | Wolves v. Blazers +9.5 | Top | 128-91 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
These teams played Tuesday and the Timberwolves scored a comfortable win. The game wasn’t as one-sided as the final scored might indicate as the Blazers entered the fourth quarter down only one before falling apart late. But it’s very tough to win two games in a row on the opponent’s floor in the span of two consecutive games. Revenge is an overrated factor in handicapping as it is in college ball because these guys are professionals and they let losses slip away after the game and move on to the next matchup. But when teams play in consecutive games like this, it is definitely a factor and we think Portland will give an extra push to play a more complete game here. The Blazers are a bad team. But they are on a level above the real dregs like Washington, San Antonio and Charlotte. This team is competitive, can score some big wins over strong opponents, and they have covered in close to half their games. So we don’t think the Wolves will just come in and dominate here. Portland has covered in four of their last seven. One of those ATS losses was by a half point, so we think they have been playing slightly above the oddsmakers expectations lately and we think they will give it all they have tonight in the rematch as rest is coming during the all0star break. |
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02-13-24 | Thunder -2 v. Magic | Top | 127-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Orlando is a fine team and they have been solid this season at covering the spread and winning games. But we think they are out of their depth here tonight. The Thunder are a true championship contender and we think if they come and play their game in Orlando that they will win comfortably here at the Kia Center. OKC has covered in five of the last six meetings. They have lost two of three, but those were at Dallas and Utah, so they will be motivated to play well here. Orlando has been playing well but they have had a somewhat easy schedule and they have been a bit inconsistent compared to the start of the season. They are also not getting as much value in their lines as they were early in the season as the bookies have caught on to the talent and capabilities of this team. But we think a motivated Thunder team wins this one going away, and there looks to be plenty of value in this line. |
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02-12-24 | Wolves +4.5 v. Clippers | Top | 121-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
The Timberwolves match up well with the Clippers and they have had a lot of success against them. They have won and covered five of the last six meetings, including two of three in Los Angeles. Minnesota comes into this one very well rested and they have tons of confidence after going into Milwaukee and laying a beatdown on the Bucks last time out. They also have recent wins against OKC and Dallas, so they have been raising their game against the best competition. We feel this will be a very close game and think the Wolves have a great chance for the outright win, and they are getting great value on the spread here. |
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02-09-24 | Rockets +2 v. Raptors | Top | 104-107 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
Despite the Rockets poor play on the road, we had them favored in this matchup. Toronto after the Trade Deadline looks like one of the worst teams in the NBA and they will likely be tanking the rest of the season. The Raptors will miss VanVleet for sure as he is out for likely a few games but we think that Houston has a good enough roster, plus the motivation, to win here. They looked pretty good in their first game with VanVleet sidelined as they went toe to toe with the Pacers on the road and lost by three, easily covering the 8-point spread. The Rockets aren’t going to win a lot of games on the road this season, but this looks like a very winnable game for them. They need every win they can get for the postseason so we think they will be focused here. Toronto is playing their first home game after a long road trip, and those are often tricky since players have obligations in their personal lives, and for Toronto with no hope, those probably outweigh the game tonight. The Raptors haven’t been just losing but they haven’t been covering, either, despite some generous lines from the oddsmakers. |
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02-06-24 | Thunder v. Jazz +3 | Top | 117-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
We were on the Thunder last meeting between these two. The line was similar, and we had a massive play on OKC and honestly we were lucky to win that one as everything went right for us in the last 30 seconds. Utah is rested and healthy, and they have revenge here for the earlier meeting. They had a real chance to win that one outright. OKC has three nights off after this game then a trip to Dallas, and as a result they may not be full focused here. Even if they are, the Jazz are strong enough at home to beat any team, any night. |
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02-05-24 | Warriors v. Nets | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
Brooklyn has won three of four and are playing well at the moment. They have enjoyed a light playing schedule lately and should be primed to defend the home court tonight. The same can’t be said for Golden State. While not on a back-to-back, they will be playing their third road game in four nights, and it’s not like this is the youngest bunch… so fatigue will be a factor. The Warriors are just 8-11 on the road this season. These teams played last month in the Bay Area, and Brooklyn held their own in a four-point loss. We think they match up well and will be able to get their revenge here. Golden State covered that one by just the hook, and that was their first cover in four games in this series. The Nets have actually covered in six of the last eight. |
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02-04-24 | Clippers -4 v. Heat | Top | 103-95 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
Love the Clippers in this spot. Miami has been underachieving lately and they have been overvalued by the oddsmakers. They have covered two straight but that followed a seven-game non cover streak. The Clippers play tomorrow also, but this team has been taking things one game at a time this season more than season’s past, and we think they will be extra focused on this very winnable game. Oh, and they have also covered in eight of the last 10 meetings. |
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02-02-24 | Raptors v. Rockets -4 | Top | 106-135 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
The Rockets have been a bit back and forth lately but we think this is a good spot for them, and the line is more than fair. They seem to be locked into winning every other game lately, and good for us they lost last time out. That was against a better team, and this is a good spot for a bounce back. Toronto has been a very poor road team and have just seven wins away from home. They have covered in two straight but haven’t been good in general at covering despite some generous lines from the oddsmakers. Houston has covered in three of their last four, so they are playing a bit better than expectations. They have also covered in seven of the last nine meetings in this series. |
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01-31-24 | Magic v. Spurs +5.5 | Top | 108-98 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
The Spurs are vastly improving throughout the season right in front of our eyes, and this is a team that should have great betting value down the stretch run of the season. They have covered in five of the last seven and have been underrated by the oddsmakers. Orlando started off the season great, but it looks like they may not be as good as advertised as they have fallen off quite a bit recently. San Antonio has covered in seven of the last nine meetings, so they have a strong history here. |
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01-25-24 | Celtics -7.5 v. Heat | Top | 143-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Even though the Celtics already got a comfortable win over Miami at the start of the season, we are confident revenge is still on their mind from the playoff series loss. And they are in a great spot for a big win tonight. They are healthy and have had two nights off, while the Heat come in on a back-to-back. They lost last night at home to the banged-up Grizzlies in another ugly performance that marked their fourth straight loss. All those opponents were much worse teams than the Celtics. Boston should be extra motivated tonight and they won’t take it easy on the Heat just because they are struggling. We think they bring their A Game tonight and score a double digit win. |
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01-24-24 | Thunder v. Spurs OVER 241.5 | Top | 140-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
We think the sky is the limit for this total and think it can easily fly over 250 here tonight. The Spurs just don’t play much defense at all. OKC is coming in on a back-to-back after getting pushed to the limit by Portland last night, and we don’t see them with much energy on the defensive end. We lean heavily to the Spurs here in this matchup as they have been very competitive lately, and we definitely expect them to get their share of the total in this one. They have scored 120 or more in their last three games, so their offense is playing great at the moment. Both teams are solidly over teams for their season records, and we just don’t see much defensive effort on either side tonight and both offenses should run up a big score in the Alamo City. |
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01-23-24 | Knicks -3.5 v. Nets | Top | 108-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
This one is a road game for the Knicks but one of the easiest road games in the NBA. These teams are going in opposite directions and we don’t see the Nets being too competitive here. They have been getting some pretty generous lines from the oddsmakers and still haven’t been covering. The Knicks are playing some of the best defense in the NBA since their big trade, and we think they will shut down the Nets inconsistent offense. The Knicks have won and covered in three straight meetings, and we expect a comfortable win tonight. |
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01-18-24 | Thunder -3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 134-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
Utah has been playing great basketball, and OKC is coming off a pair of losses. But it is very telling that the Thunder are laying some points here on the road. Sharp bettors pounded OKC when the line was released, but there is still plenty of value at this number. Even though OKC is playing their third game in four nights, they are coming in off a night off, and this team is young, athletic, and conditioned, and we don’t see fatigue being an issue. Props to the Jazz as they have been playing great, but they are a hot team that will likely flame out in the postseason very quickly, while the Thunder are a legit championship contender. And OKC has been one of the most reliable betting teams for the last few years. The Thunder will take this game very seriously after a pair of losses to the Lakers and Clippers. Utah was supposed to play Golden State last night, but the game was postponed due to the tragedy with the Warriors coach. This blip might have thrown the Jazz off their momentum. OKC always plays well against the Jazz. They have won and covered in four straight meetings. Utah has covered in only one of the last eight meetings (one push). |
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01-16-24 | Thunder v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 117-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Love the Clippers in this spot. They are coming off a rare loss at Minnesota that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated, so they will want to get back on track here. OKC comes in on a back-to-back after a really tough game against the Lakers last night. They expended lots of energy in that one, so facing a better team in the second leg will be difficult. We love that this number is on the good side of the key NBA betting number of 7, as that is the point where the losing team stops fouling at the end of the game and concedes the loss. |
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01-15-24 | Spurs +8.5 v. Hawks | Top | 99-109 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 13 m | Show |
The Hawks are 9-29 ATS on the season, so you have to take notice when they are laying a number like this. We really like the way the Spurs have been improving. They are coached by one of the best to ever do it, and he is getting the most out of his club at the moment. They are no longer an easy blowout for their opponent. They have covered six straight games. This Spurs team is starting to show the recipe for a team we really like to bet on. They are underappreciated by the oddsmakers and betting public, yet they are competing on a nightly basis and covering but not winning a lot of games. So if they stay under the radar, they can produce a lot of betting profits. They have also covered two straight and three of four against the Hawks. |
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01-13-24 | Lakers v. Jazz +1.5 | Top | 125-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
This line is just ridiculous that the Jazz are the underdog. This just shows the power of the Lakers as the public team in the NBA. They have dropped five of seven and they aren’t looking like a championship contender at the moment. The Jazz are on a B2B but they have won seven of eight and are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now. We had the Jazz handicapped at -3, so there is great value here tonight. |
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01-12-24 | Raptors v. Jazz -3 | Top | 113-145 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
The road trip languishes on for this Raptors club and they face a Utah team that has been dominant lately but doesn’t get the notice of the oddsmakers or public bettors because of the lack of big names on the team. But we think they show up tonight with their great home court advantage and a team that seems to be brimming with confidence right now. The oddsmakers have been too slow to adjust to how this team is playing right now. |
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01-10-24 | Kings v. Hornets +7.5 | Top | 123-98 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
These teams played a week ago, in Sacramento, and the Hornets not only covered by won outright by seven points. We think they match up well here. Forget about the revenge factor. Enough time has passed since that game, and the Kings have bigger aspirations than holding a grudge over the lowly Hornets. The biggest factor here is that the Kings are on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights. This isn’t the deepest team, and they have had a handful of B2Bs this season and haven’t covered a single one. The Hornets have won and covered in eight of the last ten meetings, and normally bring their A Game against the Kings. We believe that will happen again tonight and expect a close game. |
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01-08-24 | Jazz v. Bucks -8 | Top | 132-116 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Damian Lillard will be out here for the Bucks, but that absence is already cooked into the line. The Bucks are off a tough road trip where they lost two of three, and they have lost three of four overall. So we think here, back at home against an inferior opponent, that we are going to see a very focused and determined Bucks team. If they had been playing better they might overlook this game, but they need a big performance tonight and to get far enough ahead where they won’t leave anything to chance at the end of the game. The Bucks are 16-3 at home, and Utah is one of the worst road teams in the NBA at 6-15. Utah is coming off a rare road win at Philly and they are probably Fat and Happy right now and won’t give full effort here. The Bucks have won and covered three in a row in this series, and the last two were blowouts. We see the same result happening here tonight. |
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01-06-24 | Bucks v. Rockets +7 | Top | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Now this is what we like to see: Houston back in the underdog role. We went against them last night and they were blown out by Minnesota. There’s a good chance they were looking ahead to this game. Even though the Timberwolves have the best record in the Western Conference, they don’t move the meter for excitement like Milwaukee does. Houston is a solid team and they are one of the best teams in the NBA ATS. We just don’t see them getting blown out two nights in a row. And the Bucks aren’t in top form right now as they have lost three of six and covered in only two of those games. In fact, the Bucks have been overrated by the oddsmakers and they are just 15-9-1 ATS on the season. Houston played the Bucks tough in Milwaukee last month but lost and didn’t cover. We think they will do better here at home. They didn’t mount any comeback last night, so they should be more fresh than normal with the lack of energy expended. And a B2B at home is much more easy to navigate than on the road. |
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01-05-24 | Wolves -3.5 v. Rockets | Top | 122-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
Nothing against Houston here. We think they are a solid team and often a value bet. Heck, we took them for our 8-Unit season win total pick on the over. They have covered a lot of games this season since they were a surprise competitive team and also they were getting some generous lines from the oddsmakers. The oddsmakers have caught up with them a bit, and they aren’t surprising teams any more. Also, they are going to face the ups and downs that come with a young team coming out of its rebuild. They have lost six of their last 10 and haven’t covered in any of the losses. We think this team will make the play in tourney for sure, but across the court from them will be a team that is championship ready. Only the Celtics have a better record in the NBA. The Wolves will take this game very seriously as they are off a couple tough losses. They don’t want a three-game losing streak. They have won seven of the last eight meetings and covered in six of those. We expect them to bring their A Game tonight. |
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01-03-24 | Nets v. Rockets -5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
These have been two of the best ATS teams in the league this season. But we think Houston is the better team, and they have been great at home this season, while the Nets have been bad on the road. Both teams have been struggling a bit, but Houston got a massive blowout win over the Pistons last time out, and that is the perfect thing for a confidence boost to get things back on track. They have had an incredibly tough schedule lately, and that is one of the reasons they haven’t been racking up wins. Brooklyn has been really struggling lately and has only a pair of wins over the Pistons to show for recent efforts, and they haven’t been covering lines like they did at the start of the season. |
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12-30-23 | Raptors v. Pistons +5 | Top | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
We said it before with our sharp ATS winner on Detroit over Boston last time out that now that the pressure of the longest losing streak in NBA history is off the Pistons, they are free to play better. And they have. They played one of their best games of the season last time out against Boston and even sent the game to OT before losing. They showed some grit in getting the game to OT in the final minutes. Now they take a big step down in competition against a Raptors team that is horrible on the road and also on a back-to-back. We thought the Pistons had the talent to possibly reach the play in before the season started so it’s not like this team doesn’t have the talent to win games. They have had major chemistry issues and injuries. We think this is a winnable game for them tonight. |
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12-26-23 | Hornets v. Clippers -11.5 | Top | 104-113 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
The Clippers were on a nine-game winning streak but since have lost two straight. This team was banged up and overworked, and they lost by double-digits at OKC and last time out at home to Boston. But LA didn’t play on Xmas and they are at home here the day after, which is a big advantage as we are confident they will be in a better place mentally than the Hornets, on the road after the holiday. We always like to take a good team after a bad game, and the Clippers were embarrassed last time out here vs. Boston. Good teams normally up the effort after a game like that, and Charlotte is certainly a team that can be susceptible to a blowout. They have lost four straight road games by double digits. The Clippers have won and covered in four of the last five meetings. |
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12-22-23 | Wizards +12.5 v. Warriors | Top | 118-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
The Wizards are a bad team. But they are not bad on the level of the Pistons or Spurs. They have a couple players that can make a difference, and they have been a decent bet in spots. And we think one of those spots is tonight. And we think one of those players that can make a difference is Jordan Poole, the former Warrior who was punched by Draymond Greene in practice, but he was kind of disrespected in the trade that brought Chris Paul to the Warriors. We think he will raise his game up tonight. Washington actually has covered more games than Golden State. They are on a B2B but have covered four straight after winning in Portland last night. They have three nights off after this game, so they don’t need to hold back for energy. The Warriors play on Saturday then also on Christmas at Denver, so we don’t know how focused they will be here. They have been double digit favorites twice this season and didn’t cover in either game. |
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12-21-23 | Clippers v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 115-134 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
It’s tough sometimes to go against a team like the Clippers who have won nine straight and are playing as well as anyone in the league. But we think this is a real bad spot for the Clippers. They are coming in on a back-to-back. This is their third road game in four nights. This is a veteran Clippers team that has seen it all and done it all, and we don’t think they care about the streak nearly as much as the fans do. This seems like a game they might not give full effort in. Some members of the team have been sick. Kawhi Leonard has played unprecedented minutes to start the season, and he got really banged around last night. The Thunder have had two nights off and are completely healthy. They have won four of five, including a road game against the defending champs. They are one of the best ATS teams in the NBA at 17-8 on the season. |
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12-19-23 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -7 | Top | 115-113 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
Ja Morant should return to the court on Tuesday, but we think this will hurt an already struggling team in the short term. This team already has chemistry issues and now will insert a new puzzle into the mix. Morant will get his numbers but we doubt he will make the team competitive right away. Plus, the Grizzlies are massively banged up right now. This roster is paper thin. The Grizzlies have lost five straight and have failed to cover in any of those games despite generous lines from the oddsmakers. New Orleans has won seven of nine (6-3 ATS), and they are playing playoff-quality basketball right now. |
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12-16-23 | Knicks v. Clippers UNDER 228.5 | Top | 122-144 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
The Knicks have been playing in a lot of high scoring games lately, but we feel they are in a letdown spot tonight. The Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and they are one of the strongest under teams as well. The Knicks scored 139 last night and Brunson went off for 50 of those. We doubt he will stay hot on a back-to-back and against tougher defenders. These teams met already in New York and the total didn’t even cross the 210 mark. We see a similar game tonight. |
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12-14-23 | Warriors v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
The Clippers are very quietly playing as well as any team in the Western Conference right now. While other teams – including the Clippers opponent right now – have tons of drama surrounding them, Kawhi and co. have put their heads down and gotten to work. This team always had the talent, but they had chemistry issues. But they seemed to have worked those out, and this is a real championship contender now that they are playing well. There is a current circus going on in Golden State and they have not been playing well overall. We think they are in for a tough night tonight as LA should be clicking on all cylinders and they will want to put their best foot forward as they are currently tied for the season series. |
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12-13-23 | Knicks v. Jazz +6.5 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
The Knicks’ defense has been their calling card but they are faltering in that aspect and they have given up 130+ in three straight games. They aren’t going to win a lot until they fix the defensive issues. The Jazz are getting healthy and could see Markkanen return tonight. The Knicks have covered just one of the last five meetings (one push) and we don’t see their road trip getting off to a good start tonight. |
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12-07-23 | Pacers v. Bucks -5 | Top | 128-119 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
We were unsure how serious teams would take the in season tournament, but some teams did take it seriously, and now that we are close to the finals we think teams will start to take it very seriously. And while the Pacers are a very solid club and their offense is almost unprecedented, with both teams playing at their best, we think Milwaukee is the much better team. They had some new pieces to acclimate on the team but you get the sense recently this team is turning the corner. They scored their highest point total of the season last time out, 146-122, against the Knicks in tourney action. New York is one of the best defensive teams in the league. While it might not be evident when looking at final scores, they have been improving on the defensive side. The Pacers are all offense but not defense. The Bucks can match the Pacers on offense but they have a defensive edge that will be the difference in this game in Las Vegas today. |
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11-27-23 | Lakers v. 76ers -5.5 | Top | 94-138 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
The Sixers have won nine of the last 10 meetings and covered in seven of those games. The Sixers are a more complete team at this point of the season. The Lakers two stars are banged up for this game, and LeBron could miss the game. We like the Sixers for a big win whether LeBron and AD play or not. Every team gives their best effort against the Lakers, but this is just another game for LA, who is trying to work out the kinks. This team is definitely focused on the postseason more than the regular season. Philly has been one of the best betting teams this season, and they are undervalued again today. |
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11-20-23 | Kings -115 v. Pelicans | Top | 93-129 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
We just don’t like this New Orleans team this year. They started hot out of the gates last year and then faded, but they look much worse this year. They have some moments and there is talent here, but their star and franchise cornerstone has lots of bad karma surrounding him and it seems he doesn’t have the mental fortitude to become a superstar in this league. Sacramento has won six straight and has won and covered every game of this current road trip. They are 8-4 ATS on the year and continue to be underrated by the oddsmakers. They won the last two meetings in blowouts, and we expect a comfortable win here tonight. |
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11-16-23 | Nets +3.5 v. Heat | Top | 115-122 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Miami has been racking up the wins lately, but four of those games came against four of the worst teams in the NBA so far this season. They take a big step up in class tonight and this should be a very tough game for them. Brooklyn has won five straight meetings with Miami. The Nets are 9-1-1 ATS on the season. This team doesn’t have any big names so they don’t get respect from the oddsmakers, but they compete hard every night and play with a true team mentality. They also have plenty of talent and a roster of players that compliment each other. We think they have a great chance for the outright win tonight. Miami is not a good regular season team, and things have been going a little too well for them lately. |
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11-15-23 | Knicks +1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 116-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
The Hawks have the better record right now but there’s no doubt to us that the Knicks are the better team. They already won comfortably here last month. They have been playing very well recently until they played their worst game of the season last time out on a back-to-back against Boston. But Boston is a Top 3 team in the NBA, and the Hawks should provide a nice opportunity to get back on track. This time the Hawks are on a B2B. And even though Young didn’t play last night (new father), the rest of the roster will have a tough time keeping up the pace against this physical Knicks team. |
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11-13-23 | Knicks +9.5 v. Celtics | Top | 98-114 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
Even though it has been at home, the Knicks have won three straight. And they have looked good in the process. And sometimes building confidence at home can translate to continued success on the road. We don’t doubt that New York will be hyped for this matchup even though they are on a B2B. But they easily dispatched Charlotte on Sunday and this game was early so not too intense a B2B. These teams opened the season against each other so this sets up a revenge scenario since Boston won the first one. |
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11-03-23 | Grizzlies -3 v. Blazers | Top | 113-115 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
Memphis is 0-5 to start the season. We think they will get their first win tonight with style points. This team has lots of talent even without Morant. This is their first game of the in season tournament, so we think there is a great chance for this to be the impetus for them to snap out of this funk. Portland will finish with one of the worst records in the west. While Memphis hasn’t played well, this roster is miles better than what the Blazers will be trotting out, and if this matchup was the first game of the season (without the way the Grizzlies have played), Memphis would probably be around a 7- or 8-point favorite here based on the talent. |
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11-02-23 | Magic v. Jazz +1.5 | Top | 115-113 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
We love the Jazz in this spot tonight. We think they are being punished too much by the oddsmakers for this being a back-to-back. But this is a young team, and this is early in the season, so we don’t think that will come into play tonight. The Jazz ran roughshod over the Grizzlies last night and the starters got some extra rest. No starter played more than 28 minutes. These teams don’t play often, but the Jazz are 8-1 in the last nine meetings. Orlando normally doesn’t play well here. The Magic are an exciting, up and coming team, but they were bad on the road last year and they should be this year also. The Jazz were a surprise team at the start of last season and they were one of the best betting teams early. We think they are a solid bet at this point in the season, and we expect them to win outright tonight. |
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11-01-23 | Wizards v. Hawks OVER 237.5 | Top | 121-130 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
The over has cashed in seven of the last ten meetings, and the last meeting saw 250 scored by both teams. We could see that kind of offensive output tonight. These teams are going to run tonight and execute their offense quickly. Washington is No. 1 in the league for pace to start the season, and Atlanta is not far behind. When teams play at this kind of pace, the total can weather a couple cold spells and still go over. The last time Washington met a team high in the pace ratings was their game against Indiana that saw 263 points scored. We think this one can be that kind of barnburner tonight. |
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10-24-23 | Suns v. Warriors OVER 232.5 | Top | 108-104 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Fans of offense are really going to enjoy Opening Night as these two teams always light up the scoreboard when they meet up. Three of the last four meetings have gone over the posted total, with one push, and all would have gone over tonight’s posted number. The offenses will be ahead of the defenses to start the season, and both of these clubs have tremendous firepower offensively. These are going to be two teams that will both be in the Top 5 for points per game by season’s end barring major injuries. Chris Paul will be very motivated against his former team, and despite some players out there is still plenty of firepower. Both teams should bring their A Game here as this is one of the biggest games of the season for both teams with two of the major contenders in the west. This will be a very competitive game, as the spread indicates, and both teams will get their points. The winning team has scored 123 or more in the last four meetings, and we expect that kind of offensive output here on Tuesday night. |
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06-12-23 | Heat +9 v. Nuggets | Top | 89-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
We think the pressure got to the Heat a bit in this series and they had just come off a grueling Eastern Conference Finals. They have never quite got their footing in this series. The pressure is essentially off now that they are in a big hole and we think they will play free here and we just think this is too many points. The Denver defense has been good, but also the Heat haven’t shot well so they are due for a better shooting game. We think they Nuggets might not bring their A Game with such a cushion in this series and we wouldn’t be surprised if the Heat challenged for the win here. We know from what we have seen in these playoffs that the Heat aren’t just going to roll over. |
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06-09-23 | Nuggets -3.5 v. Heat | Top | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
Some people might follow the Zig Zag Theory here in Game 4 assuming Miami will strike back and even up the series. They have been resilient for sure. But we don’t think so. Denver is the best opponent they have faced in the postseason and the Nuggets are a complete team. Denver got a wake-up call in Game 2, and they responded like we expected in Game 3 in Miami with a dominant performance. This team is hungry, and the championship is right there for them. We don’t think they are going to squander the opportunity, and we think they will treat this game as a must win and bring their A Game tonight. With that Game 3 win, Denver has now covered five straight in Miami, and they are 27-10 ATS long term against the Heat, which is a long term string of domination since these teams don’t play often. |
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06-07-23 | Nuggets -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
This Heat run in the postseason has been legendary, but we have to go with our handicapping here and that states the Nuggets are the stronger team. Miami used a big fourth quarter for their Game 2 win, and they shot the lights out in that game with almost 50 percent shooting from the floor and three-point land. We think Denver will clamp down more on defense and we see a slower paced game here and we think Denver will come out on top with a comfortable win. |
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06-04-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
Love Denver in this spot in Game 2. Denver is almost unbeatable at home, and teams that win in this playoffs are covering at a very high rate. Miami looked great and this run has been incredible, but Denver is definitely their strongest opponent yet in this postseason, and the Heat have been on the wrong end of plenty of blowouts this postseason. They have lost six games in the playoffs by nine or more points. We think Miami will put up a fight in the first half but that the Nuggets will start to pull away in the second and should win this one comfortably by the final buzzer. |
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06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 219 | Top | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
The Miami/Boston playoff series was one of the most epic postseason series in awhile, and that had to take an emotional toll on the Heat. We know that we are still thinking about it, so we can’t imagine what is going through the players minds, and then they have to shift their focus pretty quick here. We don’t see it working out well in Game 1, and a blowout would bode well for our position here. The Heat have gone under in four straight games, while the Nuggets have gone under in four of six. They could start off the game with a little rust, and even a short cold spell could help the under immensely. |
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05-29-23 | Heat +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 103-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
All the pressure is on Boston here. They have been one of the favorites in the East all season, while not much was expected out of Miami, especially after they landed in the Play In Tournament. We have history on our side here as no team has ever come back from down 3-0 to win a series. But we will go with the spread in the case of a close game. We expect a low scoring game here, and that makes the points with the underdog all the more valuable. Also love that this one is on the other side of the key NBA betting number of 7 (when the team down stops fouling at the end of the game). |
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05-27-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Love the Celtics to win here and we think this line is more than fair after the beating Boston put on Miami in Games 4 and 5. They have totally taken back momentum in this series. We don’t know if they will go on to win this thing, but we do think they will force Game 7 tonight. Boston seems focused and they haven’t once panicked even down 3-0 in this series. They have the swagger and experience to get the job done here, and they have a major edge in talent on the floor. They have stepped it up on the defensive end the last two games, and we see more of the same here in Game 6. |
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05-25-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8 | Top | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Boston has tons of talent and a lot of playoff experience, and we don’t think they are out of this series yet. We don’t even think they are panicked. They sure didn’t look like it in Game 4. They put their heads down and confidently got the job done. That was a 17-point road win with their season on the line. All they need to do is take this one game at a time and a win here would put them right back in this series. And the oddsmakers seem to agree with this line. But we aren’t worried about the points here. Boston has covered in every game they have won this postseason, and in 12 straight stretching back to the regular season. Even though we took Miami in the first three games of this series, we love to back the Celtics this season because of their resilience and their competitive fire. They don’t want to just win, they want to dominate. We think they captured the momentum in this series and we expect another big win as they have seemed to figure things out a bit and made the necessary adjustments. |
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05-23-23 | Celtics +2 v. Heat | Top | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
The Celtics have a lot of postseason experience and we don’t think they will be too panicked here. It is rare to come back from this deficit, but the Celtics can take it one game at a time and get back in this series. A win here, and they are back at home and favored for Game 5. Miami has been the better team in the series but the Celtics have the players are experience to avoid the sweep tonight. Also, might the refs give Boston some extra calls? We are confident the NBA doesn’t want two sweeps in the conference finals. |
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05-22-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3 | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
It is very rare to get a sweep in the NBA Playoffs, especially the conference finals, and we just don’t see it happening today. The Nuggets have the series firmly in hand, and they will likely let up a little here and won’t have that killer instinct on the road, while the Lakers will be clinging to any last hope to save their season and extend this series another game. Even though Game 3 was pretty one-sided, the Lakers hung tough in Games 1 and 2, and we think they go all out to get the win here tonight. |
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05-20-23 | Nuggets +6 v. Lakers | Top | 119-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
The Nuggets match up very well with the Lakers and despite this being a must win for LA, we think Denver has a great chance to put LA on the brink of elimination here then they could let down in Game 4. But we think this team is very hungry for a championship and Denver will treat this like a must win. Denver has shown they can hang with the Lakers offensively, but they are the stronger defensive team, and that will be the difference here in Game 3, at least where the spread is concerned as we just don’t see LA running away with this one. |
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05-19-23 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
We are a big believer that when Boston wins they normally cover. But we think this may be a rare situation where they win but don’t cover the spread. This is simply too many points. We had this line handicapped at 6, so this number, on the other side of the key NBA number of 7 (when a team with the lead stops getting fouled at the end of the game), offers very nice value. Miami is playing their best basketball of the season right now and they have proven to be a legit championship contender. We are sure they are aware that Boston came back from an early hole to beat Philly, so we think they will go all out to try and win this one and put Boston in the worst possible spot for the series. |
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05-18-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
We expected Game 1 to be high scoring but we think these teams will settle in for Game 2 and we expect a much more defensive game tonight. And we are getting an even better number here for the under in a game we expect to be totally different from Game 1. Three of four regular season games between these teams went under, and the Lakers will clamp down on defense tonight and we think this total could go under by more than 10 points. Â |
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05-16-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 126-132 | Push | 0 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Denver is almost unbeatable at home, and we expect another big performance tonight. The Lakers have surprised in the playoffs and they have looked good, but they will be facing, in our opinion, the best team in the west here, and they are taking a big step up in competition for the conference finals. The Lakers haven’t been good on the road this season. And they have had trouble in Denver in the last couple seasons, where they are 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven meetings here. Denver is 21-9 ATS at home against above .500 teams, and they will be ready for another dominant performance tonight. |
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05-14-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 88-112 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
Philly had Boston right where they wanted them for Game 6 with a chance to close it out at home, but they couldn’t get the job done and now Boston is a decent favorite at home to win the series and they have all the momentum. Boston is one of the teams we love to trust as they usually win by more than the spread when they do win. And they are excellent as a favorite. Boston has tons of postseason experience and the guys know what they need to do here. We think they bring their A Game today. |
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05-12-23 | Warriors v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
We rarely ever bet on the Lakers, so you know we like them if that is the way we are moving on this game. Golden State has stunk on the road all season. They had some road heroics in the first round at Sacramento, but this is a lot better team they are facing tonight. The Lakers made the right moves at the deadline and they are gelling at the right time. The Warriors had a long season last year with their extended playoff run and we think this team will finally run out of gas here in Game 6. Golden State has been following the Zig Zag theory for NBA playoff betting as they are 1-5 ATS after a win. They haven’t covered in the last five games in Los Angeles. |
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05-10-23 | Heat v. Knicks UNDER 209.5 | Top | 103-112 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
Three of the four games in this series have gone over, but two of those went over on the final bucket. We expect a low scoring game here with these defensive minded teams. The Knicks have played pretty solid defense in this series but will have to go all out on the defensive end tonight to keep their season alive. We think they will leave it all on the court tonight. The Heat play at one of the slowest paces in the league and they will want to exert their will here. The under is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings in New York. |
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05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Home court has held serve in this series so far, and we expect more of the same tonight. We think Denver is the better team and we expect a strong showing with one of the best home court advantages in the league. We doubt Booker will play like he has in the last couple games, and we think we will see some top performances from some of the role players on Denver. |
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05-07-23 | Nuggets +3 v. Suns | Top | 124-129 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
Love the Nuggets in this spot. We feel they are clearly the better team. They were never going to sweep the Suns, but Phoenix got their win in Game 3 and played about the best game they could, but Denver was still in striking distance at the end. We expect a better effort from the road team in this one and not quite the same effort from the home team. We had the Nuggets as a one-point favorite in our handicapping, so excellent value here and the points could come in handy if the game goes down to the buzzer. |
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05-06-23 | Knicks v. Heat UNDER 209.5 | Top | 86-105 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
Both games have gone over, but as this series goes on the defensive intensity will pick up. Miami plays at one of the slowest paces in the NBA, and they should set the tempo early on their home court. These teams are getting very familiar with each other, and we think this will be a very low scoring Game 3. Even though both games have gone over, Game 1 should have gone under but there was a late meaningless bucket, and Game 2 could have gone either way. We think that sets up for a slugfest here, and we think the oddsmakers should have lowered this total. |
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05-05-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 114-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
We absolutely love the Celtics in this spot. We think one of the best things that could have happened to this team for the series was to lose Game 1 at home. That has upped the intensity and the urgency for this team, and it showed in their dominating Game 2 performance. Embiid came back for the Sixers in Game 2 and played decently. But who knows how his health will hold up here. If this was the regular season, he would for sure be out for an extended period, and it’s never a great idea to rush a player back. But even if he is 100%, we still like Boston here. The Celtics normally cover when they win. This has been one of the safest teams to bet on for several years as they normally bring their A Game and they play great team basketball. This is a team that you can trust. And they know they have a great path to the championship this year with some contenders bowing out early. We really think this is an important game for Boston, and they are a tier above the Sixers, and we think they flex their muscles tonight and take back home court advantage in the series. |
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05-01-23 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 215 | Top | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
Philly is likely without Embiid tonight as he is listed as doubtful. But this is a very solid team even without the MVP candidate. We think they keep the game close with DEFENSE tonight, and this total is too high. The last three meetings all went under, and we all know teams step up the defense in the playoffs. These are two Top 5 defenses and we think that is on display tonight, and the Sixers probably cover because the big underdog points are more valuable in a low scoring game. |
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04-30-23 | Warriors v. Kings -115 | Top | 120-100 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
The Warriors should have won Game 6 at home, now they are in a real bad position having to win Game 7 in Sacramento. They have been horrible on the road this season. This team played a lot of basketball last season with a long playoff run, and they really looked tired in Game 6, and this is a quick turnaround, and we don’t see them getting the job done here. They have the experience, but the Kings are for real and they have a lot of swagger and we think they bring their A Game in what should be an electric atmosphere in Sacramento. |
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04-29-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -3.5 | Top | 107-125 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
We were not impressed with what we saw from the Suns in the first round. They let the Clippers hang around in almost every game despite a banged up LA squad. They face a huge step up in competition here. Denver is flat out the better team, and they have the best player on the court. Jokic also has more help around him than ever before, and they are almost unbeatable at home. We think the home teams will win in this series, and there is great value in this line as the Suns are overvalued in the market right now. |
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04-28-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
We don’t see the Kings going down without a fight, and if they can scrap to a win here, then they have a great chance to close the series out at home. They have suffered only one blowout in this series, and we don’t see it happening again here. They have covered in 12 of the last 15 meetings here, and we don’t see them being intimidated. This team has played with a lot of confidence and swagger, and they are the team with nothing to lose tonight, so they can play free. We see another close game here. |
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04-17-23 | Nets v. 76ers OVER 212.5 | Top | 84-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
These teams finished out the regular season against each other and now play in Game 2 on Monday. Philly scored 134 and 121 in those two games, respectively. And the Sixers didn’t even have a full squad in the regular season finale. We don’t see any way the Nets slow down the Philly offense, and we expect them to put up another big number tonight. We think there’s a possibility that the Nets make some offensive adjustments and do better on offense and play a more competitive game. The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings, and we think that trend will continue here in Game 2.  |
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04-15-23 | Warriors v. Kings | Top | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Love the Kings in this spot. They were the much better team in the regular season, and this isn’t just a flash in the pan as this team will likely be good for years. Maybe we will be seeing a changing of the guard in this series for the top team in California. Golden State is 11-30 on the road this season, and we don’t expect them to suddenly fix their road woes in the postseason. They are also 5-13 in the last 18 meetings against Sacramento. The Kings won’t want to let a season worth of hard work to go to waste by giving up home court in Game 1, and we think the Warriors are getting too much respect in this Game 1 because of past accomplishments. |
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04-14-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 95-120 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
We were on the Wolves against the Lakers and were lucky to cover that one after one of the worst fourth quarter performances of the season. OKC looked great against the Pelicans and they didn’t look nervous or intimidated. They looked like a playoff team. Minnesota sure didn’t. We think the poor play late will carry over here and we think the internal problems the Wolves are facing will be too much to overcome here. |
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04-11-23 | Wolves +8.5 v. Lakers | Top | 102-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
We can’t deny that the Timberwolves are a circus right now with everything going on with this team right now. But with all the negative media attention, plus the Lakers being one of the biggest public betting teams in all of sports, this line has been way over adjusted. Minnesota still had a solid team to bring to the court tonight, and they have covered in six of the last seven meetings and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 trips to LA to play the Lakers. Some very nice value in this line tonight. |
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04-06-23 | Blazers v. Spurs -4 | Top | 127-129 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
It’s not often that we see the Spurs listed as a favorite, but here we are. And we think it’s very justified for this game tonight. Both teams have skeleton rosters here. But the Spurs have the better roster here and home-court advantage. Plus, they are in a better state mentally than the Blazers. The Spurs have been tanking all season and they know what they are. The Blazers had high expectations this season and fell well below them, and this franchise will be facing a lot of changes soon. The Spurs are just further ahead in their plan and we think that translates on the court tonight. They also have a winning record as a rare favorite and have covered in five of the last seven meetings. |
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04-05-23 | Lakers v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 118-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
We liked the rested Clippers before we saw the Lakers use tons of energy last night vs. Utah, and now this looks like an even worse spot for them against the Clippers, a team that has owned them in recent years. The Clippers have won and covered five straight in the series. They are coming off two straight losses and they need a win badly here. The Lakers have played two grueling road games since the Clippers last played, and they needed OT last night to get by Utah, so this is a supersized back-to-back and their third game in four nights. Tough task against a Clippers team desperate for a win. |
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03-31-23 | Knicks v. Cavs UNDER 221 | Top | 130-116 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
Two very good defensive teams here and we see points being hard to come by tonight. The Knicks are coming off a spectacular defensive performance where they held the Heat to 92 points. Cleveland has held two of their last five opponents under the century mark. The Cavs are the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA for points allowed, and they have had two nights off, so they will have plenty of energy for lock-down defense. The under is 4-1 in their last five playing with two days of rest. The Knicks are trending to the under, with four straight going under the posted total. The last two meetings both went under, and the finals were well under tonight’s posted number. |
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03-27-23 | 76ers v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 111-116 | Push | 0 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
The Sixers two best players are questionable here and this Philly team is reeling a bit. They have lost two straight and three of four, and those losses weren’t pretty. Denver has won and covered three straight and four of five, and it seems this team’s recent struggles are in the rearview mirror. Denver matches up well here and this team seems to have raised their level of play lately and in the last few games this team looks like a squad that can beat anyone. We think they will want to make a statement in this possible NBA Finals preview. |
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03-24-23 | Spurs v. Wizards UNDER 228 | Top | 124-136 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
The Spurs have gone under in three straight, and their offense has been abysmal. They have scored 94 and 84 in their last two games. This team has a questionable roster to begin with, but they are very banged up right now, although they should get some players back from injury tonight. But this roster hasn’t had much continuity lately, and we don’t see their offense getting back into a flow tonight. The Wizards have an underrated defense. They are also trending to the under, as five of their last seven have gone under the posted number. This Spurs defense is bad. But it’s unlikely that they allow anywhere near the 130 they gave up to Milwaukee last time. The Wizards offense is Bottom 10 in the league for scoring, and two of their Top 3 scorers are out tonight.  |
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03-23-23 | Thunder v. Clippers -4 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
This is a strong revenge spot for the Clippers after the Thunder edged them here on Tuesday. Not only is this a revenge spot, but the Clippers are mad/frustrated with their performance on Tuesday as they had the ball with a near full shot clock down 1 at the end of the game and didn’t even get a shot off. Paul George will miss this game and all the others to end the regular season. But Kawhi and a deep roster around him should be able to pick up the slack against a Thunder team that has been playing above their heads recently. |
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03-18-23 | 76ers v. Pacers +6.5 | Top | 141-121 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
There is some reverse line movement here as the majority of the cash is on the Sixers but the odds have moved the other way, which is always a good sign since we were really high on the Pacers to start off with. The Sixers are playing great, but they are on a back-to-back here and playing their third game in four nights, while the Pacers are well rested here with Friday off. Philly has been playing very well, but they should be tired here and we don’t see them giving 100%. These teams played two weeks ago, here in Indiana, and the Sixers had to rally for a four-point win. We think Indiana can do even better here and possibly win outright. Indiana needs to win games down the stretch to make the play in. So they will be the more motivated team. Philly traditionally struggles in this matchup as they are 0-4 ATS in the last four visits to Indiana and 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings overall. |
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03-17-23 | Wizards v. Cavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 94-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Cleveland has gone over in the last four games, but we are getting a great number here as the oddsmakers have overadjusted. Cleveland has the No. 1 scoring defense in the league. We expect them to hold Washington to a real low total. The Wizards are underrated defensively. They are in the top half of the league for points allowed. The under has gone 6-2 in the last eight meetings, and we think that is where the value is tonight. Cleveland is coming off a blowout loss to Philly last time out, and we think they will step up the defense here against an inferior team. This one has a chance to be a blowout, which would bode well for the under. |
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03-15-23 | Warriors v. Clippers -2.5 | Top | 126-134 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
10-Unit Play Take LA Clippers -2.5 over Golden State (10 p.m. EST, Wed March 15) Something has finally clicked with the Clippers. After a season of trials and tribulations, this team finally is playing at the level that most expected coming into the season. And tonight is their most important game of the season as they are tied with the Warriors and a game behind the Suns. By the end of the weekend, if all goes according to plan, Los Angeles could see themselves in the Top 4 in the West. After a season of major ups and downs, LA is in a great position to get a decent seed and do some damage in the postseason. But they need a win tonight. And we think they do just that. This team is well rested and has had three nights off coming into this super important game. The Warriors are coming off consecutive wins over the Bucks and Suns. So they are in a letdown spot here. And this team has been horrible on the road this season. They are 7-26 on the road. And they are 8-23-1 ATS on the road. A healthy and clicking Clippers team is better than the Warriors, and we think they prove that on the court tonight. Best of Luck, Doc's Sports |
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03-14-23 | Knicks -2 v. Blazers | Top | 123-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
There is a chance this line could move through the day depending on the status of Damian Lillard for Portland, but we like the Knicks for a comfortable win even if the Blazers star plays. The Knicks are often underrated on the road, where they have played excellent basketball this season, and are 23-12 ATS on the road. This current road trip hasn’t gone the best, with a head-scratching loss in Charlotte and losses to playoff teams in the Clippers and Kings. So there will be a little bit or extra urgency here to salvage the road trip. Brunson will likely miss this game for the Knicks. But this is a more complete team than the Blazers, and we think New York will be fine without him. This is the Blazers first home game after a long road trip and that can often be tricky for a team as the players often have their minds on personal business rather than the task at hand. |
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03-09-23 | Rockets v. Pacers -9 | Top | 125-134 | Push | 0 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
The Pacers are not a great team. But they can score. And they will be highly motivated here as they are a couple games out of the Play In Tournament. They know that if they don’t get a convincing win here, that they don’t belong in the postseason. We think they get the job done. The Rockets are one of the most tanking teams right now, and they have covered only two of their last nine games. Both of those were against the Spurs, another tanking club, so maybe that was just a case of San Antonio wanting the loss more. They aren’t covering despite some very generous lines from the oddsmakers. Indiana has covered six of seven, so they have been a money machine lately and underrated by the oddsmakers. The Pacers are 21-13 ATS at home, and they normally take care of business against bad teams. The Rockets are 11-22 ATS on the road, where they normally get massive spreads like we see tonight. Houston normally doesn’t play well here and they are 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Indiana. |
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03-08-23 | Raptors v. Clippers -2 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
The Clippers have been a schizophrenic team, but when they start playing well they can string together some good games. They are healthy and they snapped their losing streak last time out vs. the Grizzlies. They also played well in a one-point loss at Sacramento before that. We think they are primed for a win and a cover here. Kawhi will no doubt want to play well against his former team, and this just looks like a game where the Clips Big Two could potentially go off for a big game. You know the Clippers stars like their rest, and this team has had two nights off. |
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