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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-14-17 | Spurs v. Warriors -10 | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 4 m | Show |
With five days off we like the Warriors here to win in a blowout. Yes, Kawhi Leonard is likely to play here but we doubt he is close to 100% and San Antonio is already down a starter in Tony Parker. They have had a much tougher road than the Warriors in these playoffs and just a couple days off coming into this game. The Warriors did everything right this regular season as for not exerting themselves too much while San Antonio played harder in the regular season than we normally see them (and maybe that is why they have had injury issues in the postseason). We like to play the Warriors when they are motivated and we think that motivation kicks into high gear here now that they have a more formidable opponent. But we think Golden State is on a whole other level above the Spurs and we think they flex their muscle here on Sunday. |
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05-12-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | Top | 91-92 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
All five games in this series have been decided by 10 points or more and we think Washington will win this one tonight so we don’t mind laying the number here on Friday. Not only has the home team covered every game in this series but that pattern has been intact in the last nine meetings between these clubs. With so many short series this playoff season we think there will be at least one Game 7 in this round and this one looks like it could be the one. The refs might give the home team some extra love in order for that to happen. The Wizards won their two home games in this series by an average of 23 points and we think they can play that way again here and send this one back to Boston for a deciding Game 7. |
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05-11-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -6 | Top | 114-75 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
The over has hit in four of the five games in this series. And we don’t think that trend will continue tonight. The only game that went under was that game where the Rockets had one of their worst shooting games of the playoffs and the Spurs didn’t play all that well either. But that was way back in Game 3 and these teams have been better offensively since. This one has all the signs of a seven-game series and has been one of the best series of the playoffs so far. We are sure the Rockets will get the favorable calls at home by the refs to give them an extra push to get this series to Game 7. Kawhi Leonard didn’t play much at the end of Game 5 with an ankle sprain and he will likely play here but it’s doubtful he can play to full effectiveness and we think that helps the Rockets and the Over here as he won’t be at his best defensively and Houston will try to push the pace even more with him hobbled. |
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05-10-17 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
In our mind Washington has covered three games in this series even though they only covered two. We had them in Game 2 and they should have won and covered but we suffered a bad beat in OT. But they have clearly been undervalued in this series and we think they have grabbed all the momentum in this series with two massive blowouts in Games 3 and 4. We don’t think this one will be a blowout, however, and we expect a close game. But the road team definitely has a chance to win this one straight out. We called a close game in San Antonio last night in Game 5 over in the west after all the games had been blowouts and we think this Game 5 will go down in a similar fashion and we just have to take the points here with the team that is in better form in a series that we have thought was pretty even all along. |
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05-09-17 | Rockets +5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
Every game in this series has been a blowout but we think we are in store for a close game tonight. All four regular-season matchups were decided by four points or less. We have always liked the Rockets in this series and now that this one is a three-game series we think Houston will take one of these road games. It seems they have regained their shooting touch in Game 4 and we expect it to continue here. The loss of Nene hurts this team but we expect his teammates to rise up in his absence and this seems like a team that can handle adversity well. In a game we expect to be close we have to take the points here and we think Houston is getting a couple too many. |
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05-08-17 | Warriors v. Jazz +9 | Top | 121-95 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
We were on the other side in Game 3 and the Warriors won by 11 even though Utah played well most of the game. But here for Game 4 we are getting probably the best line for Utah in the entire series as they are now getting a big number at home where they try to avoid the sweep in Game 4. The Jazz actually led Game 3 for quite a bit of time and had a nine-point lead at one point. While Toronto basically threw in the towel in their Game 4 and rolled over we think Utah will play with a lot more pride here and they don’t have a lot of pressure in their Game 4 as opposed to Toronto because nobody thought they would get this far anyways. We think they will be loose and will go out there and play their game and we wouldn’t be shocked to see them score a close win here to give the home crowd one last gift before the season ends. We think this will be a close game either way. |
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05-07-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -5.5 | Top | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 33 h 41 m | Show |
We had the Rockets big Game 3 and it was a real head-scratcher of a game. Neither team played well but Houston was just awful. They shoot incredibly poorly. Some of that was the Spurs defense but mostly they were just off. But we still think the Rockets have a great chance to win this series, and they are pretty much in a must-win situation here in Game 4. Harden and the Rockets can’t go too long with this cold shooting and we expect things to turn around in Game 4. We expected Houston to win one of these home games in a blowout and since it didn’t happen in Game 3 we think there is a great chance that Game 4 is the one. |
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05-07-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -4.5 | Top | 102-121 | Win | 100 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
We think there’s a great chance that this one goes to seven games. And we love the way the Wizards have played the last two games. We think they should be up 2-1 here. But they blew Game 2 in OT. But we think these teams are pretty even and we expect the Wizards to take care of business at home in Game 4. After the huge Game 3 win by Washington we handicapped this game at 6.5 with a strong lean to the home team at that line so we love that we are getting a short line here for Sunday. We expect the Wizards to win by 7+ points and set the stage for a three-game series for the right to proceed to the ECF. |
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05-05-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -4.5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
Both Games 1 and 2 were blowouts and we think this one has a good chance to go that way as well. We think the Rockets have a great chance to win this series. Everyone talks about the Clippers failures in the playoff but the Spurs have fallen on their faces in the postseason the last two years with the current core, losing to these same Clippers a couple seasons ago and falling in the second round to the Thunder last season. They just haven’t been as good in the postseason as they have in the regular season and we see Houston taking this one. Yes, Tony Parker is out for the Spurs. He will be out for the rest of the playoffs. That kind of hurts us with this play as I think the casuals put too much stock in Parker’s current abilities and as a result has moved this line from the opening number of 4. But we don’t think the points will matter here. Houston is just a very underrated team. We think that they have a better chance against the Warriors in the conference finals than the Spurs would. And after a lousy Game 2 we think they will bounce back here in Game 3. James Harden had a real bad game in Game 2. He scored only 13 and was 3-for-17. That’s not going to happen again at home and those numbers will probably even out here in Game 3, meaning we expect a big night from the Houston star. In Game 2 Houston went down by 10 at the half and they shot poorly in the second half. And the Spurs shot well above their season average from the floor. Houston will play better defense here at home and the Spurs won’t play as well offensively but we expect a big bounce back from the Rockets offense here. We feel this is a very public line and from what we saw in Game 1 we think the Rockets can win this one by 7+ in this crucial Game 3 matchup. |
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05-04-17 | Jazz +12.5 v. Warriors | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
The Jazz were able to sneak in the back door in Game 1 and we think they will play a better game overall here and we think they can keep this one within double digits. This is an inflated line as far as we are concerned and after playing pretty lousy most of Game 1 we think Utah will play better here. We think they will make more of a contribution on the offensive end to get this one over the posted number. This series has had a bunch of unders, but Game 1 was real close to going over and the Warriors probably took their foot off the gas a bit at the end of that game but we think that this one will be more competitive and the Warriors will still be taking the game seriously late in the fourth. That will help the total here, and we think this will be a very competitive game overall. |
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05-03-17 | Raptors +7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-125 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
Game 1 was the first Cleveland blowout in this series since last season. Toronto won big in one regular-season meeting but all the others were Cleveland wins by no more than four points. We just don’t see the Cavs winning big in both home games here to start the series and we think the Raptors are a live dog tonight. Toronto has been good after a loss lately and they are 5-1 ATS after a straight up loss. That means that this team is good at bouncing back lately, and we think that will be the case tonight. Cleveland has been one of the worst ATS teams this season and they are constantly overvalued by the oddsmakers. We certainly think that is the case tonight as normally the team that loses Game 1 is tabbed to bounce back and play better in Game 2 but we are getting an even better line here. |
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05-02-17 | Jazz v. Warriors UNDER 208 | Top | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
We think that Utah built a lot of momentum in their series win over the Clippers. We think that will carry over here. Everyone is criticizing the Clippers for losing to an “inferior” team, but we were very impressed with the Jazz and their defense, especially in their Game 7 performance in LA in the close out game. We love the Jazz here getting this many points and feel they will keep this one within double digits. They were able to control the pace in almost every game against the Clippers and they held them under 100 (one of the best offensive teams in the NBA) in six of the seven games of the series. We think that they will be able to disrupt the Warriors offense a bit and slow them down, and that makes all these points even more valuable. Golden State made it look easy against Portland but they face a much better team here in the second round and the Jazz will be competitive here. The nightlife isn’t the only reason the Warriors wanted to play the Clippers because they have a mental edge over that team but we don’t think they own the same against Utah and the Jazz will give everything they have in this series. |
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05-01-17 | Rockets +6 v. Spurs | Top | 126-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Houston has a real chance to win this playoff series. There are three real legit teams in the west this year and these are two of them. We think the Rockets are getting a very nice number here and we think that this series will be competitive. The Spurs have had some struggles in the playoffs in recent years and their postseason results don’t really match their regular-season successes. They had a tougher time with Memphis than they should have in the first round and now they face a much better squad. The Spurs won three of four meetings in the regular season but all the games were close and we don’t think that this one is very different. And most of the pressure seems like it’s on the Spurs here as no one is talking about Houston much and this line is off as well as we thought 3.5 would be more appropriate and we would lean to the Rockets at that number as well. |
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04-30-17 | Jazz v. Clippers -4 | Top | 104-91 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
Utah put up quite a fight in this series but now they are in a real bad position after blowing it in Game 6 at home. That was a pretty easy win for the Clippers and we think the momentum will carry over here into this Game 7. The Clippers, as most NBA teams, are much better at home and they have had some success here in Game 7s (remember that epic game against San Antonio?). The Clippers aren’t as good without Blake Griffin but Jamal Crawford started to heat up in Game 6 and J.J. Redick should contribute here as well. The Jazz have a nice team and a solid defense but now that home-court advantage is back in the Clippers hands we think they will take advantage and will be the lucky team to likely get swept by the Warriors. LA is the better team even without Blake and Chris Paul really seems like he is on a mission to win this one and having the best player on the court normally makes a big difference in these types of Game 7 situations. |
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04-28-17 | Celtics -3 v. Bulls | Top | 105-83 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
We like the Celtics to close this thing out tonight. The road team has mostly been the bet so far in this series. And we think that trend will continue tonight. The Celtics had some off-court distractions that held them back in Games 1 and 2 but they have played up to expectations since and we think they are being underrated by the oddsmakers here tonight. We had this line handicapped at Boston -6 so we think there is some nice value on the road team laying this small number. |
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04-27-17 | Raptors +1 v. Bucks | Top | 92-89 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
Milwaukee is going to be good in a year or two. Potentially really good if they can stay healthy and add a piece or two. But they have lost the momentum in this series and we think this one ends tonight. Toronto’s offense has really come on and the Bucks really seem to have lost their defensive edge as they gave up 118 in the last game, a blowout loss in Toronto. The two nights off here really benefits the better team, and the Raptors are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in Milwaukee. We really thought that Toronto should be at least -2 here and we expect them to win tonight. They have been playing more like a team and have more scoring options and the further we have gotten into this series it’s evident that the Bucks are a one-man show. |
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04-26-17 | Hawks v. Wizards -6 | Top | 99-103 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
We were surprised that the Wizards played so poorly in Atlanta but now that they are back home we expect them to reestablish their dominance in this series. The home team has dominated this series both ATS and SU, and we expect that trend to continue tonight. Remember, although the Wizards played better on the road down the stretch they are only 19-24 at home but an almost unbeatable 32-11 at home this season. We think they come out fired up in this one and we think that this could be a double-digit win tonight. Washington was really good ATS this season at home and we think their home-court advantage will be the difference as they put Atlanta on the brink of elimination tonight. |
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04-25-17 | Grizzlies +10 v. Spurs | Top | 103-116 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
We think the OKC and Memphis lines could have been switched as the Rockets are pulling away in their series while the Grizzlies have captured momentum and are very much in this series. The bottom line here is that this is just too many points, especially since this total is in the high 180s; the lower the score the more valuable the points are for the underdog. Yes, San Antonio won by double-digit blowouts in their first two games. But in an NBA Playoff series teams become to know each other real well and although the Spurs will likely win this one we don’t think the Grizzlies will let this one become out of hand. Memphis is playing with a lot of confidence right now. And the Spurs have struggled in the playoffs the last couple years and maybe this team is just built more for regular season success than the playoffs. Regardless, we think this will be another close game. |
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04-24-17 | Wizards +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
We always thought that the Wizards would win one game in Atlanta and it didn’t happen in Game 3 so we think it’s very likely to happen in Game 4, and as a result we had the Wizards as a whooping 4-point favorite in this one, meaning there is some amazing value here with the underdog. Washington got off to a slow start this season but they have been one of the best teams in the second half of the season and this team seems built to win this series to us. They lost their season opening game to the Hawks but they won all of the most recent three regular-season meetings and this team is just much better than the Hawks. And now the pressure is dialed up as they don’t want the Hawks to win this one and even the series up going back to DC for Game 5. They have some tougher opponents on the horizon and need to finish this one off ASAP, so getting the win here and putting the Hawks on the brink of elimination heading home for Game 5 is a scenario that they want and need to happen. Washington didn’t show a lot of urgency in Game 3 but they will show it tonight and we expect to see a completely different outcome than we saw there. And getting this many points means in case this is a close game and the Wiz lose a close one that we are protected a bit by the points. But we don’t think we will need them tonight as the Wizards should win straight up. |
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04-23-17 | Celtics -1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 104-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
Wasn’t ever too worried for Boston after they started 0-2 in this series with two home losses. They had some major off-court distractions that really affected the team. But they were uber-focused in Game 3 and we expect them to even the series up here on Sunday. Of course underdog teams can catch lightning in a bottle at any time but we just think that this Bulls team stinks and they barely made the playoffs. Boston is maybe one of the weaker No. 1 seeds in recent memory but they are still a much better team and the No. 8’s have such a torrid history in this matchup for a reason. Boston recaptured the momentum in this series and with one win today they reclaim home-court advantage in a three-game series and they will again be a heavy favorite to win this. We wouldn’t be surprised if this one was another blowout like Game 3. |
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04-23-17 | Rockets +1 v. Thunder | Top | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
The Thunder got a win last time out to save their chances for the series but they played about the best game they could at home in Game 3 and still won by only two points. We think it’s very telling that the line has shrunk from the Game 3 line and we think the Rockets win this game to put OKC on the brink of elimination. When both are playing their best Harden and Westbrook cancel each other out but the rest of the Houston team is much better than the roleplayers from OKC, and we had this game handicapped at Houston -3 so we think there is some really nice value here. Houston really struggled from three-point land in Game 3 and the Thunder shot well above average from three-point land and the floor in general. And for that disparity in shooting for the home team to win by only two tells us a lot. We think these numbers equal out and we think that there’s a great chance Houston wins this by 5+. |
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04-22-17 | Wizards +3 v. Hawks | Top | 98-116 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
When we saw this line we had to rub our eyes as we thought that the Wizards should be favored here. Washington has made it look easy in winning and covering the first two games of this series, and we don’t think they have played their best game yet, either. We think they have a great chance for the sweep here against an overrated Hawks team. They have now covered in four of the last five meetings between these clubs and we think the two nights off really plays to the advantage of the better team here. The Wizards got better on the road as the season went on and we think they have the upper hand in this matchup as they know they need to finish Atlanta off early and a win here means the series is all but over. They scored 109 and 114 in Games 1 and 2 and we think they can get near 115 again. The bookies adjusted this totals number down but we think they should have gone the other way. |
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04-21-17 | Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 197.5 | Top | 111-106 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Both Games 1 and 2 have gone under easily and yet the bookies have not adjusted the number that much here for Game 3. But this is the most important game of this series unless it goes to 7 games and we expect both teams to keep doing what they have been doing on D. Utah is arguably the best defensive team in the league but they lost Rudy Gobert, who has already been ruled out for tonight. But this team plays a defensive system and the home crowd should fuel them tonight. The Clippers are known as an offensive team but down the stretch of the season this team has been playing excellent defense and they have been really good in the playoffs so far. The Jazz will have trouble getting anything going inside and they will try to slow the game down as they have in Games 1 and 2 in LA. But now they are home and we doubt the Clips will be able to push the pace too much. We think the Clippers will have enough on offense to win this game but we don’t see them getting too much over the century mark if they even get there. We think this will be a low-scoring game just like Games 1 and 2 and we think the better team will win here, and that’s the Clips. |
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04-19-17 | Hawks v. Wizards -5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
We were on the Wizards Game 1 for our free pick and we like them here for Game 2 as well. We think this could be a really similar game as Game 1 but that maybe the Wizards cover by a couple more points as they have an even better offensive night. They missed a bunch of threes in that game and shot a real low percentage but that should probably turn around tonight and there is a great chance that they can put up even more than the 114 they scored on Sunday. They got off to a real slow start in the first half before playing really well in the second. We just think that Atlanta is outmatched here. They should get enough points to get this one over the total by virtue of the pace here, but we don’t see them being able to keep pace with Washington on the scoreboard. |
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04-18-17 | Jazz +9 v. Clippers | Top | 91-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
The Jazz stole Game 1 but lost Rudy Gobert in the process. While that is a considerable loss, we think the oddsmakers have posted too big a number here. The Clippers just have a way of blowing it in the playoffs and after losing Game 1 at home now the pressure is really on this team – and this is a team that probably is more under the pressure cooker than any team in the playoffs because they have fallen well below expectations way too often in the postseason. And this team has shown that they don’t handle adversity well. We think they will likely get the win here but as both teams have been playing very good defense, we expect another low-scoring affair and that makes the points for the underdog even more valuable. We thought this line would be 7 at most after the Game 1 result so we think there is really some nice value tonight. |
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04-17-17 | Pacers v. Cavs OVER 209 | Top | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
With Game 1 going well over the posted number four out of the last six meetings between these teams have now gone over the posted total. The Pacers were real competitive in Game 1 and there’s a great chance their offense clicks again here for Game 2. They shot nearly 50 percent from the floor in Game 1 and they should get their fair share of the points here on Monday. The Cavs have the ability to put up a big number here. They shot well above 50% from the field in Game 1 and the Pacers just don’t have an answer for them on defense. We actually expect Cleveland to put up a higher point total here in Game 2 and this one should have no problem going over this posted number. |
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04-16-17 | Blazers v. Warriors -12.5 | Top | 109-121 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 45 m | Show |
To us this looks like the ugliest series in the first round of the playoffs. The bottom of the west was down this year and Portland barely made it in over the last few games because of a late-season surge. The Warriors had some issues throughout the season but now they are back in championship form and this team did everything right in the regular season this year as opposed to last season when they spent so much energy on setting regular-season records only to struggle more than expected in the playoffs. We feel the different approach will pay off here and the Warriors look primed for a blowout. Yes, this line is large but when Golden State is feeling it they can cover any line, and the Blazers don’t play well enough on defense to slow them down and their offense won’t be able to do enough to match that of the Warriors. |
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04-15-17 | Jazz v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 97-95 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 50 m | Show |
At the start of the season we said the Clippers would get out to a hot start as the pressure was on to perform better this year than they had in the past. And that is just what they did. They suffered some injuries throughout the season and the regular season didn’t turn out just as expected but they closed the season strong by winning their last seven games. But now is when the real test starts for this team. They have flamed out in the playoffs every year, and last season they looked like they would cruise against Portland and then Paul and Griffin were injured. Now this might be the last stand for this team. And just like they wanted a strong start to the regular season we think it’s of the utmost importance for this team to have a strong start to the postseason. Utah has a fine team but in the playoffs you need some star power. The Jazz rely on their stingy defense for success but the Clippers have been playing as well as anyone on the defensive end down the stretch but they have an offense that should be able to succeed here in this series and especially at home in Game 1. They have covered in five of the last six meetings between these teams and we think they will want to make a statement here in Game 1 while the public’s confidence is not too high with this team and therefore this line was released too short. |
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04-11-17 | Pelicans +3 v. Lakers | Top | 96-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
The Lakers are just 4-7 ATS this season as a favorite, and we think there is a great chance the Pelicans win this one straight up tonight. The two big stars for the Pelicans will be out tonight but this line is an overreaction because the Pelicans are probably still better than the Lakers even without Davis and Cousins. New Orleans is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings in LA, and there aren’t many trends in the NBA stronger than that. LA plays at Golden State tomorrow night in their season finale and we think they will be more focused on that game where if they play well it will be a nice finale for the season for them. New Orleans has lost four straight but this is their last best chance for a win as they finish the season at Portland tomorrow. |
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04-10-17 | Spurs -4.5 v. Blazers | Top | 98-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
The Spurs were embarrassed by the Clippers last time out (at home no less) and after the game Coach Gregg Popovich said that there will be no rested players down the stretch. This team has flamed out in the playoffs the last couple seasons so we think they really try to build some momentum heading into the postseason. Even though the Spurs are locked into the No. 2 seed, you sense more urgency here at the end of the season than in the past for this team. With Denver’s loss on Sunday the Blazers are locked into the No. 8 seed. We think they will start focusing on the Warriors now and that makes the rest of the regular season meaningless to them. |
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04-09-17 | Wolves -5 v. Lakers | Top | 109-110 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
We had the Wolves the last time these teams played in LA and that was one of the Lakers better games they have played in awhile and they won it in OT. Just don’t think that they will be able to put forth that kind of effort twice against the same team. This Lakers team doesn’t have much interest in winning out in the stretch run of the regular season. In fact, it benefits them to lose because of their tenuous hold on their upcoming draft pick, which would head to Philly if it’s outside the Top 3. Losing these last three games would give them a better chance to keep their pick, and that’s only if the Suns go on a winning streak to end the season. The Wolves are a team that wants to finish the season on a high note. Their recent games have included two against Portland and also Utah and Golden State on the road. They finish with OKC and Houston, so this is their last best chance for a big blowout road win. |
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04-08-17 | Clippers +3.5 v. Spurs | Top | 98-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
The Clippers have won and covered in two of the last three meetings. They match up well against the Spurs and LA will have all the motivation tonight. They are one game behind the Jazz for home-court advantage in their probable first-round matchup of the playoffs. Utah has a tough one tonight at Portland so LA with a win here could gain some serious ground. The Spurs come in on a back-to-back and this team does not care much about the rest of the regular season as they are locked into the No. 2 seed in the West. The Spurs are 1-4 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back in their last five. We think LA goes all out for the win here and they have played well against the Spurs. They are averaging 121 PPG in their last four and are playing very well right now. |
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04-06-17 | Wolves v. Blazers -5 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
These teams played three nights ago and the Blazers lost by one. They still covered, however, and they have now covered in six of their last seven games. We think this one will go the other way in Portland where the Blazers are a solid home team and the Wolves have proven to be very inconsistent on the road. Portland is currently holding down the No. 8 playoff spot and this team must continue to win if they are to make the postseason. They have been playing really well lately and we expect a big game tonight against a Timberwolves team that is just playing for pride. Portland has covered in six of the last eight meetings in this series! |
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04-05-17 | Cavs v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 114-91 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
We just don’t have a lot of faith in Cleveland this season and we think they are susceptible to losing in the playoffs this year. This game might go a long way to deciding that outcome as these teams are tied atop the EC playoff heap, and the winner of this one has a good chance to claim the top seed. Boston comes into this one having had two nights off while the Cavs are on a back-to-back and will be playing their third game in four nights. Cleveland has covered in only one of the past five meetings in this series. The Cavs don’t seem to have the hunger they had last year and that fire can dim after winning a championship. The Celtics seem to have it this season, and this team is a serious threat in the East. Boston is 14-5 ATS as a favorite of less than 4.5 points, and we think they take care of business for a comfortable win tonight. |
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04-04-17 | Wolves +14.5 v. Warriors | Top | 107-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
The Warriors are back to playing Golden State basketball and are the hottest team in the NBA right now. However, as this team has success the numbers rise for their games, and this is a very inflated number in our opinion. The Timberwolves have covered in eight of the last nine meetings. This team has some talent although they have been inconsistent. But they always seem to play well in this matchup and we think tonight will be the same. Minnesota actually has two wins in the last four meetings! Golden State is 19-28 ATS when laying double digit points this season and we think this is another overinflated line tonight. |
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04-04-17 | Nets -1 v. 76ers | Top | 141-118 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
Brooklyn has been one of the best bets in the NBA lately and while bettor confidence is down on this team they have been playing very hard down the stretch. They have now covered in 12 of their last 16 games. And we think they are majorly underrated here. The Sixers have been one of the best ATS teams all season but they have slid back a bit and have covered only three of their last seven games (despite some generous lines). The Nets are 10-4 ATS this season on the road against a sub-.500 team and they are the squad that is playing with a lot of pride right now as the Sixers look more ready for the season to be over as their play has trailed off big time lately. Brooklyn has extra motivation here as well since the Sixers have won all three meetings this year and the Nets won’t want to be swept. Brooklyn also has a chance here for a rare three-game winning streak and this looks like a squad that will finish the season with some momentum. We also think this total is way too high as the Nets have been playing some pretty strong defense lately and we don’t see this as a shootout. |
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04-04-17 | Hornets +4 v. Wizards | Top | 111-118 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
The Wizards were the hottest ticket in town for awhile but this team has trailed off as well and they have covered only three of their last 10 games. They are coming into this one off three straight losses and with non-covers in all three of those games. The Hornets have been a head-scratcher all season but this squad is finally playing to their potential and they have now covered in seven of their last nine. They are coming off a very impressive recent stretch that saw them with three straight, including road wins at OKC and Toronto. In fact, this team has three straight wins on the road. We think the Hornets have a great chance for the straight up win here. |
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04-02-17 | Hornets +5 v. Thunder | Top | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 2 h 4 m | Show |
The Hornets have been back and forth most of the season but they are playing well right now and they have been underrated by the oddsmakers and have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. OKC has covered only two of their last six games. The Hornets won the last meeting in this series by double digits back in January. The Hornets are two games out of the playoff picture in the east and this is basically a must-win game for them today. There is not the same urgency coming from the home side tonight as they are pretty much locked into the No. 6 in the west. We think this will be a very close game and have to take the points here. |
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04-01-17 | Hawks v. Bulls -4.5 | Top | 104-106 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
Four of the last six meetings between these teams have gone under the posted total. The Hawks have averaged 97 points in their last two games, and those were against the Sixers and Suns, two teams that aren’t in the conversation among the best defensive clubs in the NBA. They will face a much tougher test tonight. They have now gone under in eight straight games, and the bookies are still posting too high lines for this team. The Bulls have been playing very good defense lately and we think they will hold the Hawks to a real low score here, covering ATS and keeping this one under the posted number. The under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Chicago and 16-7 in the last 23 meetings overall. |
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03-31-17 | Pistons v. Bucks UNDER 198 | Top | 105-108 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
Four of the last five meetings in this series have gone under the posted total. Detroit’s offense has gone into the doghouse lately. This team has gone under in eight of their last nine games and the main reason is their poor offensive play. They have surpassed the century mark only once in their last 10 games and on most nights they haven’t got anywhere near 100. They come in on a back-to-back tonight after scoring only 90 against a poor defensive team in Brooklyn. The Bucks are much better at defense, and we just don’t see how they will score more than that tonight. We have a good feeling this will be a blowout, so that would bode well for the under. Detroit averages less than 93 points on offense in the second night of a back-to-back and we think there is a good chance that they could wind up in the 80s tonight. |
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03-30-17 | Clippers -9.5 v. Suns | Top | 124-118 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
The Clippers have a small margin of error for the rest of the regular season if they want to overtake Utah for the No. 4 seed and play their first-round series with home-court advantage. They are on a back-to-back but we think they will play well here. The Suns have stunk all season but they are even worse now and not only is Devin Booker questionable tonight but this team is far from the one that started the season as most of the key players are either injured or shut down for the season. LA goes for the season sweep here and all three wins were by double digits. LA’s defense should get the job done here and their offense should thrive against a team that plays poor defense. |
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03-29-17 | Wizards v. Clippers -6 | Top | 124-133 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
The Clippers blew a late lead last time out against the Kings and had a head-scratching loss at home. That ups the urgency for this game since the Clippers are still behind the Jazz for the coveted No. 4 spot in the playoff seedings and at least one series at home. This Wizards defense has been atrocious lately and they have given up 110+ a bunch lately. The Clippers have at least been playing strong defense their last few games and after an off offensive game last time out we are confident that they will have a strong game on offense against this Wizards team that hasn’t been protecting the basket. Even though the Wizards played in this building last night, this is still a back-to-back and we think it’s a bad spot for the visiting team. |
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03-28-17 | Wolves v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 115-114 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
Looks like the Wolves have thrown in the towel on the season as this team is barely competitive right now and they have lost six straight games both SU and ATS despite some very favorable lines. This line is more than fair for the home team. Indiana is really good at home at 26-11 and they will face an opponent tonight that has won only 10 all season on the road. Why would the Wolves play better than they have lately in this one, against an out-of-conference opponent? Doesn’t seem likely. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in their last six road games and they have covered in only 2 of the last 7 games in Indiana. The Pacers have been inconsistent lately but this looks like a game that they can win pretty comfortably. |
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03-27-17 | Thunder v. Mavs +2 | Top | 92-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
The Thunder are just not a good road team at 14-21 on the season and we think that the wrong team is favored tonight. Dallas hasn’t been playing all that great but they have had an incredibly hard schedule so far on this homestand with games against the Warriors, Clippers and Raptors. They got only one win there (against LA), but they have their most winnable game on this homestand tonight in our opinion. Dallas is 3.5 games out of the No. 8 playoff spot in the west (thanks mostly to a lousy start to the season), and they have to win this one big time if they have any hopes of the postseason. We think they will be hungry tonight and win against an overrated OKC squad. |
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03-26-17 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -10.5 | Top | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Golden State hasn’t been a good bet this season but they are rounding into form lately and they have covered four of their last five. They failed to cover last time out against Sacramento but won by 14 as an 18-point favorite. They didn’t have a lot of motivation in that game but still played well and won in a blowout. But they have motivation tonight as the Grizzlies are a traditional rival and they have beat the Warriors twice this season. But Golden State won the last meeting by 15 – in Memphis no less – and we think they give their best shot to split the season series tonight. Memphis has won four of their last six but they also have five double-digit blowout losses in their last five games and this team has not been playing hard in losses. Marc Gasol is also questionable for this game and the Grizzlies will need all the help they can get to stay competitive in this game. |
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03-26-17 | Bulls v. Bucks UNDER 201 | Top | 109-94 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 19 m | Show |
This series has a strong history of unders lately as four of the last five meetings have gone under the posted number. The last meeting was pretty high scoring thanks to hot shooting from the Bucks, who shot 57% from the field and 60% from three-point range. It’s highly doubtful that they shoot anywhere close to those numbers even if they have a solid shooting effort. Milwaukee is playing outstanding defense lately and they have held nine of their last 12 opponents under the century mark. Thirteen of their last 16 games have gone under the total, and a big reason is because of this strong defensive effort they give almost every night. The under is also 5-0 in their last five home games. The under is 21-14 this season for the Bulls in road games, and we feel their offense might really struggle to put up points here with the way the Bucks have been playing D. The Bulls have played in some pretty high-scoring games lately but that has inflated this total and we think this one should have been closer to 195. |
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03-25-17 | Jazz v. Clippers -5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
This is a game we have had circled for awhile since the Jazz beat the Clippers in Utah last time out. That was a rare win for the Jazz who got their first win and cover in five meetings in this series. The Clippers have had their fair share of problems throughout the season and they have dealt with extended injury absences for two of their big 3. But this is such a crucial game and we think the better team takes control of this and dominates in this matchup. LA has been playing pretty well lately. They lost last time out at a Mavs team that is playing much better down the stretch, but they had won the last three before that. We took Dallas on Thursday and said the Clippers were probably looking ahead to this one, and we think that was the case as they lost in the final seconds. LA is a game and a half back of the Jazz for the No. 4 seed and we think they do what it takes to win this big and get a better chance at home-court advantage in the first round when these teams likely meet in the playoffs. |
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03-24-17 | Wolves -6 v. Lakers | Top | 119-130 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
The Wolves won by 26 the last time these teams met up, and we think we could see another blowout here tonight. Minnesota has lost and failed to cover in four straight, but that was against a pretty tough schedule. Tonight provides the perfect opportunity for them against a “get right” opponent. The Lakers don’t have a lot of interest in winning right now. They need to keep losing in order to give them the best chance to keep their draft pick in the upcoming loaded draft. This is also pretty much a must-win game for Minnesota and we expect to see their best against an inferior opponent. |
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03-23-17 | Grizzlies +8.5 v. Spurs | Top | 90-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
The Grizzlies match up well here and they have taken three of the last four meetings ATS. Also, five of the last seven meetings have gone under the posted total and these teams played last week and the Grizzlies won straight up and since these teams just played we expect to see more defense here because of the familiarity and we think this will be a low-scoring game, which favors the underdog. You don’t get the sense that the Spurs are a team that would be too focused on revenge because they just go about their business with workman-like precision. We think the Griz want this one more. Not sure if they get the win but we see strong defense on both sides and a close game overall. |
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03-22-17 | Bucks v. Kings +5 | Top | 116-98 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
The Bucks came off a tough road game last night as they beat Portland but this team hasn’t been very good in back-to-backs this season and they are just 6-10 SU and 7-9 ATS. We just think this is a bad spot for the Bucks as they come in not only on a back-to-back but this is the sixth and last game of their long road trip. They have won three of their last four and should be pretty happy with the trip and ready to head back home, where they play four of their next six. We don’t think that they will be giving their all in this game – even if they had the energy to do so. The Bucks aren’t a good road team and have one more win than the Kings have at home. We think that this will be a very close game and the Kings could pull off the upset. |
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03-21-17 | Grizzlies +2.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 82-95 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
We had Memphis as a slight favorite in this game so there is great line value tonight for our Top Play for Tuesday. The Grizzlies have covered in six of the last eight meetings between these clubs. They have won seven of those games, so they obviously match up well in this series. Memphis is playing great ball right now and they have won and covered in four straight, including a win over San Antonio last time out. This team has had two nights off after that game and will be the more well rested team here tonight. The Pelicans have been playing some good games lately, too, but overall Memphis is the much better team here and we have them winning this game straight up. |
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03-20-17 | Warriors v. Thunder +1.5 | Top | 111-95 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
The Warriors have covered in two straight games but they are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games. They beat the Bucks and Magic big at home to get back on track but we just don’t think this team is in top form right now and they are in for an incredibly tough matchup tonight in OKC. Durant being out of the lineup takes away a lot of the intrigue from this matchup but the Warriors are still his team and the crowd and the home team will be more into this one than an average game. We think that OKC has a very good chance to win this one tonight. We had them as a slight favorite in this one and we think this looks like another clearly inflated line from the bookies. |
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03-17-17 | Bucks -7.5 v. Lakers | Top | 107-103 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
The Bucks are one of the hottest teams in the NBA and they have won and covered in seven of eight games. They won straight up last time out at the Clippers and they don’t have any travel involved here as they play in the same building and against a much worse team. The Lakers are the definition of a team that is tanking. They have covered only one of their last 10 games. They have to keep losing to have a good chance to keep their draft pick, and they have been making an art of it lately. We don’t think that the Bucks will rest on their laurels after the win against the Clippers, and this is a team playing with a lot of confidence right now. |
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03-16-17 | Magic +14 v. Warriors | Top | 92-122 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Orlando has dropped three straight, but we expect their best effort tonight as everyone seems to get up to play the Warriors lately. Golden State has covered just once in 10 games. They almost lost to Philly last time out here at home but they pulled out a two-point win. This team has been bad all season at covering big lines and they are 16-27 ATS against double-digit lines. Orlando is 6-3 ATS against lines of 10 or higher, so this matchup is good for both of those trends. Orlando is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in the Bay Area. They lost by six points and one point the last two times they have played here, and the Warriors are not playing as well as they were last season. |
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03-15-17 | Bucks +7.5 v. Clippers | Top | 97-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
The Bucks just beat down the Clippers in Milwaukee less than two weeks ago, and that was a double-digit win. Revenge is an overstated handicapping angle for the NBA and the Clippers are not focused on an out-of-conference foe but instead they are trying to work Chris Paul and Blake Griffin back in the lineup and trying to get on the same page for a playoff run. The Clippers just have not been playing up to their potential lately and we think this is likely a close game and the Bucks showed recently already that they can match up well with LA. |
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03-14-17 | Pacers v. Knicks +3.5 | Top | 81-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
The Pacers have played better on the road lately but the fact remains that even with improved play that they are just 11-21 on the road this season. They are a better team overall than the Knicks but at least the Knicks have 15 wins at home this season and we think they have the edge here and they are getting points at home tonight. New York has covered in four of the last six matchups between these clubs. The Pacers have lost three of their last four on the road. New York has had a tough road-heavy schedule lately and we think that being back home will give this team a boost and a chance for a much-needed win. |
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03-13-17 | Clippers +1.5 v. Jazz | Top | 108-114 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
The Clippers have won four of five and now that they are getting healthy they are finally putting it together ahead of the playoffs. This game is crucial for the No. 4 seed in the playoff and home-court advantage. The Clippers are currently one game back but they already have the tiebreaker by virtue of winning both of the previous matchups this season (they have won and covered in four straight meetings). The Clippers are much better than the Jazz when playing well and fully healthy and they have matched up very well against them in the past. In a playoff-type atmosphere we will back the better team here. |
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03-13-17 | Wizards v. Wolves -1.5 | Top | 104-119 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
Both teams started off the season slow but both are now realizing their potential and we just have to back the home team here. The Wolves have had a road-heavy schedule lately but when they have been at home they have been amazing with three straight wins, against the Warriors, Clippers and Mavs. Those are three very good teams (the Mavs are playing like a playoff team now). They have won two of four on the road, including a win at Utah and an OT loss at San Antonio. This is the last game of a long road trip for the Wizards, who played in OT in their last two games and will be playing their third game in four nights. Bad spot for the road team here. |
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03-13-17 | Mavs +5 v. Raptors | Top | 78-100 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
Dallas has covered in three of the last four meetings in this series and we think they make it four of five tonight. This team has won six of eight and is playing its best basketball of the season and the oddsmakers still seem to be lining this team based on their overall body of work instead of their current form. This team is playing like a playoff team right now despite a slow start to the season. Toronto has lost three of four and this is the dreaded first game home after a long road trip when teams tend to struggle in this spot. We expect a real close game here that the Mavs have a great chance to win. |
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03-12-17 | Heat v. Pacers -5 | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
Five of the last six meetings in this series have gone under the posted total. The under is also 4-0 in the Heat’s last four road games. This team has had trouble scoring on the road and they have failed to reach the century mark in two of their last three on the road. This Pacers defense is playing very well lately and we think the Heat are going to have a tough time on offense today, especially with Dragic likely to miss this game for the Heat. Indiana has won and covered in four straight meetings at home in this series and they are an excellent home team overall this season and we expect them to get the job done in a big way Sunday and the under should be an easy cash as well. |
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03-11-17 | Hawks v. Grizzlies -5 | Top | 107-90 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
Atlanta is coming in on a back-to-back and this team has played six straight at home. That puts them in a bad spot to head on the road to play a physical team like the Grizzlies and we don’t see it going too well for them tonight. Memphis played on Thursday but they had two nights off before that so they should be much more well rested than their opponents tonight. Atlanta hasn’t been good after a win lately as they have dropped four straight against the spread after a win, and like we said we just think this is a real bad spot for the road team against a Memphis squad that has dropped four straight, albeit against a pretty tough schedule. They need this win badly and they will go all out to get it and should cover the number pretty easily. |
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03-11-17 | Warriors v. Spurs -10.5 | Top | 85-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
Well, this one sure turned out to be a lemon. The Warriors are resting their four best starters and the Spurs are sitting a couple key guys as well. This was supposed to be one of the best games of the season but not it’s looking like anything but. The ABC execs have to be fuming. Nonetheless, we expect the Spurs to win big here. They are a deeper team. The stars of the Warriors elevate the other players around them and make them much better but for San Antonio it’s more of the system and they have some nice depth and we think they will take this game very seriously and expect them to win big. |
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03-10-17 | Rockets v. Bulls +6 | Top | 115-94 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
The Bulls just have a knack for winning these games against top competition at home. They beat Golden State here. They also won when facing their biggest tests against Boston and Toronto recently. The Bulls have lost three straight since that win against the Warriors but that just means they are more desperate for a win tonight and we are getting a very good line because with this team’s history against top opponents at home we expected a line closer to 3 here and we would have leaned to the Bulls at that number as well but the big line here warrants a top play. The Bulls are 8-4 ATS at home against above-.500 teams and they are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings against Houston in Chicago. Houston has dropped two straight as well heading into this matchup and they are not in great form right now. We expect a pretty close game here and we think this is a coin flip as to the winner but getting the points here is just too good to pass up for our top play for Friday. |
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03-09-17 | Spurs v. Thunder +3.5 | Top | 92-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
OKC has lost four straight and they should be desperate for a win tonight and especially against one of their main rivals. And OKC is 3-1 ATS in the last three meetings and they have been a great bet at home all season at 21-10-1 ATS. The Spurs come in on a back-to-back and they have to play it on the road, which is always tough. Plus, the Spurs had to mount a major rally last night vs. Sacramento and they outscored the Kings 32-18 in the fourth quarter, which caused them to use up a lot of energy. We think they might be really lacking in effort tonight compared to what we are used to from the Spurs. Despite winning nine straight the Spurs have covered in just three of those games, and this team has been overvalued by the oddsmakers compared to their current effort on the court. |
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03-09-17 | Clippers +2.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 114-98 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
We have been on the Clippers lately with poor results but we have to go with where we see value so we will back them Thursday for our top play. The Clips are getting Blake Griffin and Chris Paul back in playing shape and they should start to play better as they make their playoff push. Memphis has had the edge in this series for a long time but the Clippers scored a nine-point win last time out so maybe the tide is turning in this series. The Clippers come in on a back-to-back after a poor effort last night in Minnesota but it’s just hard to see this team playing games like that on back-to-back nights and maybe they were looking ahead to this game against a more traditional rival. We had LA as a slight favorite in this game and expect them to win straight up. |
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03-08-17 | Nets v. Hawks UNDER 221 | Top | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
Eight of the last 10 meetings between these clubs have gone under the posted number, and this total is way higher than any of those totals have been for any of those games. Atlanta has been playing very good defense lately. They have had a couple high-scoring games against Golden State and Cleveland, but the Nets those two teams are not. Take those two games out of the equation and they have allowed just 100 points a game in seven of their last nine. There is a great chance that this game is a blowout. That would bode well for the under. We just don’t see the Nets putting up a big score here. We think the Hawks can get their points and have this one still go under the total but we think the total is about 5 points too high on what should be a high-scoring affair but not as high as this number would indicate. |
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03-07-17 | Lakers v. Mavs -9.5 | Top | 111-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
The Lakers are a team to fade down the stretch. While we don’t think they are blatantly tanking, they need to finish with one of the NBA’s worst record to get a chance to keep their high draft pick in the upcoming draft. No one is going to get fired for bad performance, so they just don’t have a lot of motivation to win right now. They have not covered in seven straight games, so that just goes to show you how they are playing lately despite some generous lines. Dallas has covered in four of the last seven meetings and they won the last meeting by 49 points! We think this one will be a blowout as well, and Dallas is a couple games out of the playoffs in the west standings so they aren’t going to overlook any opponent right now. |
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03-07-17 | Blazers v. Thunder -6 | Top | 126-121 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
We were on Portland last time these teams played last week in Portland, and we will go for the other side here in this home-and-home, and that just goes to show how important home-court advantage is in the NBA. The Thunder lost all three games in their three-game road trip, so they will be pretty desperate for a win here, and this team is a completely different club at home (23-8) compared to the road (12-20). They are 21-9-1 ATS at home and that is one of the best ATS trends in the league for home teams. They are also 4-0 ATS in the last four games of this series in OKC. |
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03-06-17 | Warriors v. Hawks +5.5 | Top | 119-111 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
We went with the Warriors on Sunday and watched that game very closely and even though they won it’s obvious that they just don’t have that killer instinct right now. It’s probably the best thing for their championship aspirations to take it somewhat easy right now as last season they wore themselves out and faltered in the finals. They have now failed to cover in six straight games. The Hawks have failed to cover in three straight but they have been very competitive and this is a huge game for them tonight as the lone time they host the Warriors this season. Atlanta is 7-1 ATS this season as a dog of four or more points and they are undervalued again here on Monday and we think this will be an extremely close game that the Hawks have a chance to win straight out. |
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03-05-17 | Warriors -10 v. Knicks | Top | 112-105 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
Just like this Golden State team when they have a chip on their shoulder, and after losing at the Bulls and Wizards they will be very anxious to get back on track here on national TV from New York. We normally haven’t liked taking the Warriors minus the big points as they have tended to be hit or miss in these situations. And of course Durant is out for awhile. Golden State has dominated this series and they have won all of the last five meetings by an average of 26 points. They have covered in three of the last four, but the only one they didn’t cover was still a 13-point win at home in December. They led that game by as many as 25. The bookies are punishing this Golden State team because of the Durant injury. But this team has done pretty well in the past without Durant. Yes, their supporting cast may not be as good as the last couple years, but they still have the best team in the league even without KD and after cold shooting last game we think that things even out the other way here. The Knicks are the opposite of the Warriors, a very dysfunctional group, while the Warriors play the most unselfish team basketball in the NBA. Golden State should roll here. |
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03-04-17 | Hornets +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
Denver has been playing well and Charlotte really hasn’t, but you have to look at these two teams on paper and think that this is too many points. Denver has been below average this season when laying big points and we just don’t think they are good enough to lay this many points. Maybe against a team like Brooklyn or Philly, but the Hornets have some nice talent and they are probably desperate for a win tonight in a very winnable matchup. They haven’t been terrible in their last five games if you look closer at the results as they have two wins and two OT losses (at Detroit and at LA Clippers). A little luck in those two games and this team is on a hot streak right now. We think the Hornets go all out here to end this long road trip on a positive note. |
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03-04-17 | Clippers -2 v. Bulls | Top | 101-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
The Clips have covered in six of the last nine meetings. This team has struggled lately and burned us a couple times but we just have to take the value here tonight. The Clippers are a much better team here. They have been dealing with players coming back into the lineup and it has taken everyone a bit of time to mesh. They went down big in the first half last night at Milwaukee but they played really well in the second half and probably would have won the game eventually if they had more time. They have dropped four of their last five and they really need a win badly here and there will be no taking the night off, especially in front of a national TV audience. Chicago is probably a little too high after their big win over Golden State and they have a road trip coming up and we just think this is a real bad spot for the Bulls tonight. |
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03-03-17 | Raptors +5 v. Wizards | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
These teams just played on Wednesday in Toronto and the Wizards scored the road win. Revenge isn’t a big handicapping factor in the NBA because these guys are professionals with short memories, but when teams play games in close succession like this the second meetings normally fares well for the losing team, and we think that will certainly be the case tonight, and we love that we are getting so many points here as we had this line handicapped at -3 with a lean to Toronto at that number. Toronto had won the last five meetings in the series before the Wednesday loss. |
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03-02-17 | Thunder v. Blazers +1 | Top | 109-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Portland has won five in a row at home against the Thunder. We think that trend continues here tonight. Portland has won only one of their last six games. They haven’t been covering lately, either. But if you look closer that have been playing some decent ball. They were up big late last time out against Detroit before falling in OT and they lost at Toronto by six the game before that when getting 5.5 points. They played well at Atlanta before the break too but lost in OT. They should be hyped to play the Thunder tonight and we see them giving their best effort. OKC is a decent team but their current four-game winning streak came mostly against lousy teams. We think they will lose this one on the road tonight. |
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03-01-17 | Rockets v. Clippers -1.5 | Top | 122-103 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
We think this is a great spot for the Clippers. They have had two nights off entering this game and should be well rested. They lost to the Warriors and Spurs on back-to-back nights out of the break and now they play the third best team in the west. They really need to put on a good performance tonight and should go all out to do so. They don’t want to lose to the three top teams in the west in one week’s time as they would be a bad omen for their playoff chances. The Rockets have six more wins than the Clippers but have been relatively healthy this season compared to LA, who missed both Blake Griffin and Chris Paul for a considerable time. Paul and Griffin were out last time these teams played in a blowout home loss but the Clippers won and covered both meetings before that. The sharps pounded the Clips overnight as this line was released at PK but there is still very nice value here with the Clips laying the small number at home. The Rockets have covered only one of their last three games and this team is probably a bit overvalued right now and this is pretty much a must win game for the Clippers after losing those last two to GSW and San Antonio. LA is 5-2 as a small favorite this season and we think they get the job done here tonight at Staples Center. |
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02-28-17 | Jazz -1 v. Thunder | Top | 106-109 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
We really love the way the Jazz are playing right now as they have won and covered three straight and they are in playoff form right now. They are the better team in this matchup and this line is more than fair. They have done their recent good work against solid competition. The Thunder have also won and covered three straight, but those games were against the Pelicans, Lakers and Knicks, three of the NBA’s more dysfunctional groups. Utah is 9-3 ATS as a small favorite and the Thunder are 1-6 ATS as a small dog, and we think that those trends will continue tonight and we thought Utah should be at least -4 here and maybe a bit more. We think there is a great chance that they put up a great defensive performance and win this one by 5+. |
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02-27-17 | Heat v. Mavs UNDER 200.5 | Top | 89-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
Five straight meetings in this series have gone under the posted number. We think this will be another low-scoring, defensive battle, and we think the Mavs should come out on top here. Miami has been playing well but we are just not big believers in this team long term and they are definitely becoming overvalued as we had the Mavs -3 on our line for this game. Dallas has covered four of five at home and they have been real tough here lately and we expect that to continue tonight. The Mavs have been playing exceptional defense lately and we think that will translate into a cash on both the side and the total tonight. |
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02-25-17 | Hornets v. Kings +4 | Top | 99-85 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
Not sure what is wrong with the Hornets but they have better talent than they have displayed lately and they have just been horrible as they have not been playing fundamental team basketball. They had a great chance for a win last time out at Detroit but blew a huge late lead and lost in OT. No way they should be a favorite here. The Kings played great in their first game in the post-Cousins era and they seem to have a chip on their shoulder. This team still has some talent and they are probably the better team right now even without Cousins. Great value in the home underdog in this early tip. |
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02-24-17 | Jazz v. Bucks +3 | Top | 109-95 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
The offenses should be rusty here and the defenses should be fresh, and we think this will be a low-scoring contest just like the last four meetings have been, and all have gone well under the posted total. This one has been given a big total because of some of the Bucks recent contests, but we think they will be able to hold down a Jazz offense that is not often very dynamic on the road and we think that they can score the win in a low-scoring game. The Bucks won three straight before the break and we think that the positive momentum will carry on here in their first contest after the break. |
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02-23-17 | Clippers v. Warriors -12 | Top | 113-123 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
The Warriors own this series. They have won nine straight in the series (they have covered in five of six) and they seem to take a perverse pleasure in making the Clippers look bad. They know exactly how to expose their weaknesses and how to push their buttons. And the Clips really have no answer for these guys. This team is thought of as the only team to be able to challenge the Warriors in the playoffs (besides maybe the Spurs), but that is complete BS as that series would be a 4-0 sweep. These teams hate each other but the Warriors are the ones that have the superior talent and the better coaching and also they play as a team. And they always take this matchup seriously, and when they are at their best they are very hard to beat. Chris Paul could return for the Clippers tonight. As we saw when Blake Griffin returned to action for this team, it took him a few games to get back in the groove. This is not the type of game where a player wants to be thrown in the fire after being out for a long time, and the possibility of Paul playing has lowered this line and given us even more value as we were more than happy to take the Warriors at the opening number of 14-14.5. They haven’t had any success against the Warriors recently with Paul in the lineup anyways, and a rusty Paul might be more of a hindrance to his team than a weapon. |
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02-16-17 | Wizards v. Pacers +3.5 | Top | 111-98 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
We had the Pacers as our big play on Wednesday and they hung with the Cavs all game until the fourth quarter, and one thing about tonight’s game as a reason why we like the Pacers is even though they come in on a back-to-back, they didn’t give much effort in the fourth last night so they should be relatively fresh! Yes, the Wizards have been playing well but they have dropped four of six ATS as they have been overvalued by the oddsmakers. Washington has played a home-heavy schedule, which has made them look good, but the reality is that this team is 9-14 on the road and the Pacers are one of the best home teams in the NBA. |
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02-15-17 | Pacers +6.5 v. Cavs | Top | 104-113 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
These teams played a week ago and the Pacers lost by 15 points at home. Now they face each other in a rematch and the Cavs are pretty small favorites at home here. This line seems fishy and we will side with the sportsbooks on this one. The Pacers always seem to get fired up for this series and they are 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings despite that last loss last week. But this sets up a nice revenge spot for the road team here. Kevin Love had a big game last week with a double-double but he is out now and that leaves the Cavs a bit shorthanded. The Pacers haven’t been a good road team this season but they have been better recently and are 4-0 ATS in their last four on the road. The Cavs have not been good in back-to-back situations like they find themselves in again tonight and are 0-4 ATS in their last four in this situation. |
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02-14-17 | Kings +2 v. Lakers | Top | 97-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
The Lakers as a favorite? No thanks. This team is 3-5 ATS as a favorite this season and they are 3-6 ATS at home against a team with a losing record. We had the Kings as a slight favorite in this game and we expect them to take care of business tonight. The Lakers are a tricky team moving forward as they need to keep losing to get their Top 3 pick in the draft. We aren’t saying that they will tank, but they don’t have a lot of motivation to win. This team should perform well as an underdog but they are more likely to disappoint as a favorite like we see them here tonight. |
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02-13-17 | Celtics v. Mavs +2.5 | Top | 111-98 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Dallas has won and covered in three of the last four meetings and we have them handicapped as a slight favorite in this matchup and expect them to win the game. The points are just a bonus in case it’s close. Both teams are playing well but the Mavs have been really underestimated by the oddsmakers and they have cashed in seven of their last eight games. This seems like another spot where they are underrated as the Mavs have been really good at home lately and they are 17-10 ATS here on their home court this season. |
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02-12-17 | Pistons v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 102-101 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
The Raptors have had their troubles in the dog days of the NBA season but this team is still one of the best bets in the NBA at 31-22-1 ATS on the season. They are healthy now and we think that they will want to finish the first half of the season strong before the all-star break. They have won and covered in two of their last three and they are in a good spot here to take that 3 of 4. Detroit has lost 9 of their last 13 games and this team has been very inconsistent all season long but they have been trending downwards in a big way lately. We see the Raps getting a pretty comfortable win here. |
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02-11-17 | Warriors v. Thunder +8 | Top | 130-114 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
The Warriors like to portray an image of being great teammates, whether that is true or not, and we think that they may go overboard to get Kevin Durant a big night here in his first visit back to OKC after leaving the city for the Bay. We think that may screw up their game. This is already a distraction as reports came out today that Durant has hired extra security for this game. The crowd here will of course be a big factor and Golden State is also coming in on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights while the Thunder were off Friday and they had two nights off before their last game on Thursday, so they should be well rested here and primed for a big performance. OKC has all the motivation here and we expect them to keep this one close or win straight up. |
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02-10-17 | Lakers v. Bucks -5 | Top | 122-114 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
The Bucks haven’t been playing well lately but this is a very winnable game for them and we expect them to get back on the winning track in a big way here. We had this line handicapped at 8, but of course the bookies can’t lay a big line on this game like that since the Bucks haven’t been playing well, but this is only their second game in six nights so they are very well rested and they will go all out for the win here, especially with a much tougher game at Indiana coming up on Saturday. The Bucks have covered in seven out of the last 10 meetings between these teams here in Milwaukee. |
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02-09-17 | 76ers +6 v. Magic | Top | 112-111 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
The Magic are 2-8 ATS as a favorite this season and this team just should not be favored by this many against anyone with the way they are playing right now. They have shown a real lack of heart in getting blown out the last couple games. These teams have similar records and even though the Magic have better talent, the Sixers have at least been playing harder lately and we think they can challenge for the win tonight. Philly is 6-6 ATS on back-to-backs this season so they should be fine here after a pretty competitive game last night against the Spurs (they covered). |
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02-08-17 | Cavs v. Pacers UNDER 217 | Top | 132-117 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
The Pacers are really trending to the under right now, with seven of their last eight games going under the posted total. They have been getting it done on defense as they have allowed just 97 points per game during that stretch and they have held their last four opponents to 85 points. The Cavaliers are coming off one of the most epic games of the NBA season as they won in OT over the Wizards and we expect them to come out flat here. But they have also been good on the defensive end and they should be able to keep the Pacers down to a relatively low score. Only one of the last seven meetings between these teams has resulted in a total above 200 (in regulation time). The Cavs have been trending to the over, but we don’t think the bookies or betting public is factoring in their last game and that they might wind up flat here or giving the Pacers enough credit on defense. |
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02-07-17 | Blazers -2 v. Mavs | Top | 114-113 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
Dallas played in the high altitude in Denver last night while the Blazers were off last night and they had a day off before their last game on Sunday so they should be plenty fresh and ready to score the road win here. And this is a big revenge spot for the road team as they lost to the Mavs in Portland on Friday. Dallas jumped out to a 24-point lead in that game but won by only four points, and the only thing that stopped the Blazers from coming back and winning that one was that time ran out. Revenge is an overplayed NBA handicapping facet but it does come into play when teams have met recently, and that is certainly the case here tonight. |
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02-06-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 202.5 | Top | 74-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
These teams haven’t played against a total anywhere near 200 in many years. While scoring and pace is up across the NBA, this has a great chance to be a defensive battle between two of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Four of the last five meetings have gone under the posted number. The Spurs are trending to the under with their last three games all going under, and they got it done with defense as they allowed only 92 PPG during that stretch. The under is 18-6 for Memphis at home this season, and a main reason for that is their great defense, which allows only 95 PPG at home. Great chance both teams finish under 100 here. |
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02-06-17 | Jazz +1 v. Hawks | Top | 120-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
These teams have similar records but the Jazz have had many injury issues this season and the Hawks have been playing a bit over their heads but we just think that Utah is the much better team here and we think they should be a decent-sized favorite here. Utah has covered four of the last six meetings in this series and we think they match up well in this contest. They won by 27 at home when these teams met in November. We expect the Jazz defense to flex its muscle tonight and we think there is a chance they will hold the Hawks to a real low score here. We had this game handicapped at Jazz -3.5, so we think there is some nice value here. |
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02-04-17 | Nuggets v. Spurs -11.5 | Top | 97-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
The Nuggets are on a back-to-back here and playing their third game in four nights while the Spurs last played Thursday and they had Wednesday off as well, so this team is fairly well rested. The Nuggets are only 4-6 ATS on the second of a back-to-back. San Antonio has covered in four of the last five meetings and they covered lines of 12.5 and 14.5 in that span. The Spurs are 19-14 ATS when laying six or more points, so they are very solid at covering the big lines. The Nuggets are 4-8 ATS when getting five or more points so this team has not been very good as a solid underdog. The Spurs have won the last two meetings by an average of 21 points, and we expect another blowout here tonight. |
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02-03-17 | Bucks +2 v. Nuggets | Top | 117-121 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
The Bucks have not been playing well lately and the Nuggets have been pretty good (although they have lost two straight entering this game). But the Bucks are just a much better team here and we had them handicapped as 3-point favorites here, and that makes great value tonight as we think that Milwaukee should win this game straight up. Milwaukee has had a really tough and road-heavy schedule lately and they are underrated at this point of the season. We think that this team will get things together and go on a nice ATS run soon, and that could start tonight. Denver is pretty banged up right now while the Bucks are relatively healthy and the Nuggets are also playing their third game in four nights, so fatigue should be a factor here. We would not be surprised to see the Bucks win this one by 6+. |
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02-02-17 | Hawks v. Rockets -10 | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
Atlanta is in a downturn right now and they have they have lost three of five and have covered in just one of those games. They are in a real tough spot here on a back-to-back after getting blown out in Miami last night. Now they have to play this back-to-back on the road and against a much better team. We don’t expect things to go too well for them. Houston is 9-2 ATS this season when laying nine or more points so they usually excel in these types of situations. The weary Hawks probably will not be able to keep up with the Rockets energy tonight since Houston had the night off Wednesday. |
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02-01-17 | Clippers -2.5 v. Suns | Top | 124-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
We like to back teams off a big loss and that is the case the Clippers find themselves in tonight after an embarrassing 46-point loss to the Warriors. The Clippers have had three nights off after that game and they are in a pretty much must-win situation tonight after losing four of their last five. But that was against a pretty tough schedule and we think they will take full advantage of this lesser opponent tonight. Blake Griffin hasn’t been that effective since his return but he is getting back in basketball shape and should be a beast until Chris Paul gets back closer to the playoffs. They played well without Paul in the past and we think this team will start to notch more wins. And they will certainly take this game very seriously after that drubbing by the Warriors last time out. |
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01-31-17 | Knicks v. Wizards -7.5 | Top | 101-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
The Wizards have won and covered in the last four meetings in this series. The Knicks had the night off on Monday but they played in a four OT game on Sunday and that is like playing an extra half of basketball and that fatigue will be a factor here. The Wizards are really underrated right now, and that is obvious by the fact that they have covered nine straight games entering this matchup. And they are not just covering since they have won all but one of those games. This team has been really good at home where they are 19-6 SU on the season and 17-8 ATS. This team can put up points in a hurry and we think the weary Knicks will not be able to keep up. |
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01-30-17 | Magic +9.5 v. Wolves | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
The Magic have covered in three of the last five meetings. They may get Evan Fournier back tonight, and he could be a huge boost to this club. Yes, Orlando is coming in on a back-to-back and even played in OT last night, but this team is young and we don’t think that fatigue will be a huge issue. This is just too many points for a Minnesota team that has been inconsistent. The Magic are 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in Minnesota and 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings overall. They are also 8-2 ATS when getting eight or more points this season and they are normally a strong play as a big dog. |
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01-28-17 | Grizzlies v. Jazz UNDER 189 | Top | 102-95 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings. These teams have averaged 161 in the last two meetings! While we don’t think that this one will be that low scoring, we do think we have a lot of wiggle room here and expect this one to be an easy under. The bookies are afraid to post totals too low this season and with good reason as scoring is up and not too many teams play strong defense. But these are two of the best defensive teams in the league and we expect a lot of slow pace and half-court sets here. If the game is close then the defenses will likely really tighten up in the fourth quarter. |
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01-27-17 | Spurs v. Pelicans UNDER 211 | Top | 103-119 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
Only one of the last six meetings between these teams have gone over the posted total. The Spurs have one of the best defenses in the league and we have a good feeling that they will keep the Pelicans down to a decent total. The Spurs have held the Pelicans to an average of just 91 points per game in the last five meetings. Both teams have some key players out or banged up tonight, and that could hurt the offensive rhythm. Both teams have been trending to the over lately, but that has just resulted in an inflated total here, and we think this one is about four or five points too high tonight. |
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