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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-09-23 | Rockets v. Pacers -9 | Top | 125-134 | Push | 0 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
The Pacers are not a great team. But they can score. And they will be highly motivated here as they are a couple games out of the Play In Tournament. They know that if they don’t get a convincing win here, that they don’t belong in the postseason. We think they get the job done. The Rockets are one of the most tanking teams right now, and they have covered only two of their last nine games. Both of those were against the Spurs, another tanking club, so maybe that was just a case of San Antonio wanting the loss more. They aren’t covering despite some very generous lines from the oddsmakers. Indiana has covered six of seven, so they have been a money machine lately and underrated by the oddsmakers. The Pacers are 21-13 ATS at home, and they normally take care of business against bad teams. The Rockets are 11-22 ATS on the road, where they normally get massive spreads like we see tonight. Houston normally doesn’t play well here and they are 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Indiana. |
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03-08-23 | Raptors v. Clippers -2 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
The Clippers have been a schizophrenic team, but when they start playing well they can string together some good games. They are healthy and they snapped their losing streak last time out vs. the Grizzlies. They also played well in a one-point loss at Sacramento before that. We think they are primed for a win and a cover here. Kawhi will no doubt want to play well against his former team, and this just looks like a game where the Clips Big Two could potentially go off for a big game. You know the Clippers stars like their rest, and this team has had two nights off. |
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03-05-23 | Blazers v. Magic -2 | Top | 122-119 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
Portland has been on the wrong end of some blowouts lately, in five of their last six games. Orlando is sneaky good this season and they will not hesitate to take advantage of a team on a slump. They have won two straight and three of four in this series and we see another comfortable win here on Sunday. |
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03-03-23 | Nets v. Celtics -11 | Top | 115-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
We don’t get in the habit of taking NBA double-digit favorites, but we think it is justified in this situation. After the trade deadline, the Nets are sinking and will be lucky to make the play in once all is said and done for the regular season. This team is clearly looking towards next season. They have lost four straight, three by double digits, and two by 20+. In their last game, they allowed 142 to the Knicks. They have allowed 129 or more in three of their last four. That doesn’t bode well against what is, in our opinion, the best team in the league. This Boston team is a covering machine lately. This is one of the most poised, veteran clubs out there – not to mention one of the most talented – and they aren’t a team that is going to take many nights off or overlook an opponent. We think they bring their A Game here as the playoffs are quickly approaching. They are right on the heels of the Bucks for the No. 1 seed, so they know every game is important down the stretch. They have won the last three meetings by double digits (they have covered in six straight meetings), and they won by 40+ at the start of February against a stronger Nets team.  This one looks like blowout city to us. |
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03-01-23 | 76ers -1.5 v. Heat | Top | 119-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
This sets up as a nice revenge spot for the Heat’s win Monday in Philly. That was a rare cover for them recently, which shows the oddsmakers have been continuously overrating them. Philly is 14-6 ATS as a small favorite this season, and they are clearly the better team in this matchup. Miami has been one of the worst ATS teams all season and they continue to get too much respect from the oddsmakers. Revenge is an overrated handicapping angle in the NBA UNLESS these teams played recently, and that is certainly the case here. |
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02-28-23 | Wolves v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
The Clippers have been inconsistent but they still have been a better bet this season than the Wolves, and we think they will want to bring their A Game tonight and leave nothing to chance after a pair of OT losses to Sacramento and Denver. The Wolves have covered in only one of the last seven meetings to LA and we think they are in for a tough game tonight. |
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02-24-23 | Thunder +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 115-124 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Love the Thunder in this spot. The Suns will be shorthanded as Durant will likely be postponing his Suns debut. The Thunder are on a back-to-back here but they have been solid in these situations at 4-3 ATS on the season. In fact, this is one of the best ATS teams in the NBA on the year. They are 8-2 ATS on the season when getting around this many points. They normally bring their A Game on the road against top teams, where they are 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 against a team with a winning home record. |
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02-23-23 | Grizzlies v. 76ers -3.5 | Top | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Teams will want to get off to a strong start for the stretch run after the all-star break, and we think this is a game that the Sixers will want to take very seriously. These teams are somewhat close together record wise but we think the Sixers are the much stronger team, and they should take care of business with a comfortable win here in front of the home faithful. Philly is one of the best betting teams this season at 34-23 ATS, while the Grizzlies have a losing ATS mark. The Sixers are a dominant home team at 23-8, while Memphis does their best work at home as well but is 11-17 on the road. The Sixers won and covered four straight before the break, and we think that momentum will continue here after. The Grizzlies have covered only one of their last six road contests. They have covered in only one of their last six visits to Philly. They are 9-19 ATS in road games this season, while the Sixers have been dominant, at 21-10 ATS at home. Memphis is 3-7 ATS when in an underdog role this season, and we think they come up well short of the cover here tonight |
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02-10-23 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 223 | Top | 108-119 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
These teams played Sunday and the total went under by 21 points. The oddsmakers didn’t make enough of a downward adjustment on this total, in our opinion, and there is nice value here on the under. The under is 18-7 in the last 25 meetings in Philly. It is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings overall. While the offenses will likely make some adjustments from Sunday’s game, we have a lot of wiggle room here for the total even if the offenses play much better. But these are two very good defensive teams. Philly is No. 3 for defense, while the Knicks are right outside the Top 10. But the Knicks have held three of their last four opponents to 104 or less, including these Sixers, and they have stepped up the defense lately. Philly has gone under in four of five, and they have been excellent on the defensive side. We see this one as comfortably under the number. |
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02-09-23 | Bucks -7.5 v. Lakers | Top | 115-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings against the Lakers in Los Angeles, As a small-market team they normally bring their A Game when playing under the bright lights in the big city, and we think that will be the case again tonight. LeBron broke the scoring record last time out and that is one of the biggest stories in the nation, and we think this could create a letdown spot for them. He is also listed as questionable tonight and his status will no doubt move this line, but we like the Bucks for a comfortable win whether he plays or not. The Bucks are in playoff form right now with eight straight wins, and the Lakers are still trying to figure things out. |
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02-06-23 | Clippers -7.5 v. Nets | Top | 124-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
The Clippers are quietly one of the hottest teams in the league. They have won seven of nine and their two losses were by one in Milwaukee (in a game they led at one point by 20+) and in Cleveland on the second of a B2B when they rested half the team. Tonight they face a very vulnerable Nets team that not only is missing Durant, but they have other key players on the way out of town and others coming in via the Dallas trade. The Nets will try their hardest but they just don’t have the firepower to stay competitive here tonight. LA has covered in seven of their last eight, and we think this team won’t overlook the Nets since they had lots of struggles before things came together for this recent positive run. |
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02-04-23 | Clippers -3.5 v. Knicks | Top | 134-128 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
The Clippers at full strength, which they will likely be tonight, have been playing some of the best basketball in the NBA recently. They deserved the win last time out in Milwaukee and controlled most of that game but couldn’t hit any shots late and lost by one. That makes this game against a lesser opponent even more important. The Clippers have covered in six of their last seven games, with the only non cover coming in Cleveland in the game where a lot of key players sat out. With some of those types of games on the schedule, it makes full squad games like this more important, and we think they take care of business here tonight. The Clips have covered in seven of the last nine visits to MSG. |
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02-03-23 | Suns +9.5 v. Celtics | Top | 106-94 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
We like to back a good team after a bad and embarrassing loss as they normally bring their A Game in the next outing. That is the case for the Suns here. They were embarrassed at home by the Hawks last time out, 132-100. NBA players have a lot of pride and ego, and good teams don’t often fail to show up in consecutive games. And the Suns had been playing well as they had won six of seven entering that game. Boston has been winning, but they have covered only one of their last seven games as the oddsmakers are posting too high of spreads. They probably won’t be on their A Game against this out-of-conference foe. The Suns aren’t a big underdog often, but they are 5-2 ATS when getting five or more points. The Suns have also had great betting success here in Boston as they have covered in eight of the last 11 meetings. They have also covered in 10 of the last 14 meetings overall. |
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01-31-23 | Clippers v. Bulls OVER 225.5 | Top | 108-103 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
The Clippers offense has finally found its stride and the oddsmakers haven’t adjusted enough. We had this total handicapped in the low 230s, so there is insane value on this total tonight. The Clippers had a dud of an offensive game last time out, but half the team was scratched before the game and they played the Cavs, one of the best defensive teams in the league. But prior to that outing, the Clips had scored 120 or more in four of their previous five games. They have gone over in six of their last eight games, and we see the pace and scoring here being fluid and see a competitive game where both teams get their share of the total. |
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01-30-23 | Raptors v. Suns -1.5 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
The Suns have won five of six. They are getting healthier and trending upwards. We think this line is more than fair for the home team tonight. The Raptors normally don’t play up to expectations when a small dog like this as they are 4-7 ATS when a dog of under 2.5 points. They are only 2-7 ATS in the last nine meetings in Phoenix and 5-14 ATS in the last 19 meetings overall. Since these teams don’t meet often, that is a trend that goes back years. We expect the home team to pull away late in the game. |
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01-27-23 | Bucks -8.5 v. Pacers | Top | 141-131 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
The Bucks are trending upward and have won four of five, including a big win over Indiana less than two weeks ago. The Bucks needed a rally as the Pacers played well in the first half. But Milwaukee ended up winning by double digits. We expect to see a more complete game from the Bucks here. They match up very well against the Pacers and have a strong history against them as they have covered in seven of the last nine meetings. Five of those games were double digit blowouts. The Pacers started off the season strong but now might not even make the play in. They have covered only two of their last 10 games. |
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01-23-23 | Grizzlies -115 v. Kings | Top | 100-133 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Sacramento has won six of seven, but most of those wins came against sub par competition. They face one of the best in the west tonight, and we think the Grizzlies are quite a bit better than the Kings. The Grizzlies started this road trip with consecutive losses to the Lakers and Suns, by a combined three points. So they will really be focused on getting a win here and this team doesn’t want to drop three straight. They can do it against a team they have had a lot of success against. They have covered in all four of their recent trips to Sacramento and are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings overall. |
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01-20-23 | Clippers -7 v. Spurs | Top | 131-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
This is an opponent that the Clippers normally play well against. They are 4-1 ATS in the last five visits to San Antonio and 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. LA has been playing horribly. They have been dealing with more injuries, a problem that has to this point derailed their season. But it looks like the Big 2 will be playing tonight, and this team is desperate for a win. They have lost many games lately, but they have had a tough schedule littered with playoff teams. Their last easy opponent was vs. Houston, and they won by 21. We think we could see s similar result here as if the Clippers don’t get a convincing win here then it might be time for heads to roll in LA. We think they bring their A Game tonight. |
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01-17-23 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 224.5 | Top | 122-130 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
This one has a strong history of the under, with 10 of the last 12 meetings going under the posted number. These are two Top 10 defenses, and the offenses are towards the bottom of the league. Both teams are coming in on a back-to-back, where the teams are a combined 8-3 to the under on the second end of a B2B. We expect a low scoring game here. |
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01-16-23 | Raptors v. Knicks -2 | Top | 123-121 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 4 m | Show |
The Knicks are coming in on a back-to-back, but they have a winning record ATS in these situations, so we aren’t really worried about that aspect too much. They barely broke a sweat in a blowout at Detroit yesterday. The Knicks are playing their best basketball of the season. They have won seven of eight and covered in six of those contests. The oddsmakers are punishing them too much here for the B2B. Toronto is 5-13 on the road this season and this will be another tough situation for them to get the win. They hosted the Knicks earlier in the month and lost by four. This one should see a larger margin of victory. |
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01-13-23 | Nuggets v. Clippers -2.5 | Top | 115-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Note: there will likely be line movement in this game because of MVP favorite Jokic and his injury status. He is questionable with a wrist injury. We like the Clippers for a comfortable win whether he plays or not. We think Revenge is an overrated NBA handicapping angle. That is unless the teams played recently. And the Clippers no doubt remember that game last week in Denver where they got spanked, 122-91. The Nuggets have won six of seven, but they have been enjoying some home cooking lately. All those wins were at home, but they are just 2-4 in their last six road contests. Even though George is out tonight for the Clippers, this team is very deep with talent, but they just have not had consistent rotations. But they looked real good last time out in a double-digit home win vs. the Mavs, and wins and losses have come in bunches for this team. But they need to start stacking some wins together after the lackluster start to the season, and we expect them to bring their A Game tonight and for Kawhi to lead the way to a win and cover. |
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01-12-23 | Thunder +9.5 v. 76ers | Top | 133-114 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
Oklahoma City was one of the best ATS teams last season, and they are doing it again as they are the No. 1 betting team this season at 25-16 ATS. This is the perfect betting team as they play hard almost every night yet keep it close more often than getting the outright win. They have covered in four of their last five games, and we expect them to keep this close tonight. OKC does most of their ATS damage as a big dog as they are 18-7 ATS when getting three or more points. If this line goes up to double digits, they are a perfect 5-0 ATS in those scenarios. While teams like the Lakers and Warriors get the best shot from other teams even when they aren’t high in the standings, OKC is a team they often overlook and we don’t see the Sixers bringing their A Game tonight. OKC has covered in four of the last five meetings in Philly. |
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01-10-23 | Mavs v. Clippers -1 | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
For Dallas, Luka Doncic is questionable for this matchup. If he plays, the line will move. But we like the Clippers to win this one by a comfortable margin despite the line movement. Paul George is out for LA but Kawhi should play. Tonight., we have to plug our noses and take the Clippers, who are on a 6-game losing streak. This is the worst losing streak in years. This team has been inconsistent. But this just has the feeling of a Must Win game, and we think LA will respond to the pressure tonight. It’s not like they have lost to scrubs, as all the losses were to playoff type teams. They played their best game of the bunch last time out vs. the Hawks, who eventually rallied for the win. But LA has covered in five of the last seven meetings, and this is a good familiar foe with which to halt the losing streak. |
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01-09-23 | Bulls +9 v. Celtics | Top | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
Two teams on winning streaks as the Bulls have won three straight and the Celtics have won two straight. But Boston has not been covering many lines as they have been overvalued by oddsmakers and they haven’t been playing at their top level. They have covered only one of their last four games. Chicago covered in all three of their recent wins. We expect a hard fought game here. The Bulls typically bring their A Game when playing Boston. They are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings and they have covered four straight in Boston. We were planning to take the Bulls here and thought the line would be closer to 6, so there is excellent value here tonight. |
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01-07-23 | Pelicans v. Mavs -7 | Top | 117-127 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
We took the Celtics for a big play last time out against the Mavs after their embarrassing loss to the Thunder and they destroyed Dallas by nearly 30. Now we are going to back Dallas with the same philosophy, backing a good team after an embarrassing loss. They didn’t show up in that game, and they will no doubt produce a better effort here win or lose. They come in rested, while the Pelicans are on a B2B after a game they probably wanted more in Brooklyn last night that was hard fought but ended up a loss. New Orleans is not a very deep team, and they are missing two of their Big Three and we think their lineup will be lacking here in the B2B. Dallas has been an awful ATS team this season, but that can turn around. We think they have a great chance for a blowout here. |
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01-05-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. Mavs | Top | 124-95 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
The Mavs have won seven in a row, while the Celtics have been blown out in two straight and lost to OKC by 30+ last time out. Yet the Celtics are still favored here on the road. That tells us a lot. We always like to take a good team after an embarrassing loss. The Celtics certainly fit the bill here as they are arguably the best team in the NBA. And that loss is certainly embarrassing, but it’s also forgivable. During the long grind of the NBA season, teams just don’t always show up to play. But after a real poor effort, we expect the Celtics to bring their A Game tonight in Dallas. The Celtics have covered in 12 of 17 meetings here and they are the much better team. We think they show it tonight. |
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01-04-23 | Suns v. Cavs UNDER 217 | Top | 88-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
The Suns offense is really struggling right now. They have scored 104 or fewer points in four of their last six games and put up only 83 last time out vs. the Knicks. Things won’t get any easier for them tonight against the Cavs, the No. 1 defensive team for points allowed this season. The Suns are a pretty good defensive team also, so they will have to rely on that facet of the game to stay competitive here and Cleveland probably isn’t going to light up the scoreboard tonight. The under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Cleveland, and we expect another low scoring game here tonight. |
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01-03-23 | Wizards v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
This is the perfect revenge spot for the Bucks, who lost to Washington here on this same floor in a blowout Sunday. Antetokounmpo and Holiday, the Bucks two best players this season, missed that game but both should be back here. Milwaukee has lost five of six, so there should be a sense of urgency here tonight. Four of those losses were on the road, and three were to the other top teams in the east, so it’s not like they have been beaten by a bunch of bad teams. This looks like a good spot for a blowout win and revenge. |
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12-30-22 | Jazz v. Kings -3 | Top | 125-126 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Utah has not been playing great on the road and is 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The Kings shine has worn off since the start of the season as this team has been inconsistent. But they are healthy here and this line is more than fair. This homestand hasn’t been the best, but they head on the road after the new year so we think this game is a priority to get a win and salvage the homestand. Utah hasn’t looked very good the last couple games and even lost to the Spurs. They are 7-13 on the road and we think they are in for another tough game tonight. |
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12-29-22 | Clippers +7 v. Celtics | Top | 110-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
Boston has been the best team in the NBA to start the season, but now that the Clippers are healthy, they have possibly the strongest roster in the league. They should have most of the squad playing tonight, and this is just too many points. The Celtics were in a big slump but have won three straight, but wins over Minnesota and Houston don’t really move the needle. Just don’t think this club is in top form right now. The Clippers always seem to play well in Boston, where they are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings, and we think they bring their A Game tonight. |
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12-22-22 | Spurs +8.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Brandon Ingram has been out for the Pels but now the main member of the Big 3, Zion Williamson, will join him as he has been placed in Health and Safety protocols. We have no doubt players will step up in his absence, but we don’t think they will cover this big number. The Pels haven’t been playing great even with Zion in the lineup as they have lost four straight both SU and ATS heading into this matchup. And now they have to face the Spurs without their two best players. San Antonio was looking like the worst team in the NBA for awhile as they lost nine straight and didn’t cover in any of them. But they have been playing a lot better recently. They come in with confidence after a blowout win at Houston. They have won four of six and covered in all those wins as an underdog. They have covered in all seven of their most recent visits to New Orleans, and they have one of the best coaches in the league that probably devised a nice gameplan here with two days off to maximize the chance of being competitive here. |
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12-19-22 | Magic v. Hawks -7.5 | Top | 125-126 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
Don’t get us wrong, the Magic are playing great basketball right now and their recent six-game winning streak has been impressive. Especially the last two games, a sweep of the best team in basketball, the Boston Celtics, in Boston. The streak also included a home win against these same Hawks. Atlanta is a much better home team (9-5) than road team (6-10). And this game was recent so this is a revenge spot for the Hawks. We have to remember that Orlando is only 11-20, so this current win streak includes more than half of their wins. They are Fat and Happy after the sweep of Boston. They are coming in on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights while the Hawks have had two days off. Orlando has covered only one of the last five visits to Atlanta and they are 2-7-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall. Expect Orlando to play strong in the first half and then wilt down the stretch. |
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12-16-22 | Kings -5.5 v. Pistons | Top | 122-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
Sacramento has had somewhat of a tough road trip as they have dropped three of five. But this will be their easiest matchup on this road swing, so we think they bring their A Game here. The Kings have one of the best offenses in the league, and Detroit has one of the worst defenses. While the Kings defense isn’t going to win many accolades, they are better than Detroit, and the Detroit offense is one of the lowest ranked in the NBA. Sacramento normally plays well against bad teams. They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven against losing teams. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight on the road against teams with a losing home record. We think this is a great chance for a double digit win. |
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12-15-22 | Heat v. Rockets +4 | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Love the line value here as we had the Rockets as a slight favorite. Miami is the second worst betting team in the NBA at 9-19-1 ATS. They are just barely better than the worst betting team, Dallas. They are coming in on a back-to-back here after OKC took them to the brink last night. They won but didn’t cover, and we don’t see them playing a better game than they did last night. The Rockets have been playing well and have won three of four. They are 15-12 ATS on the season, meaning they are surpassing oddsmakers expectations on a regular basis. The Rockets have covered six straight at home, and we think they have a great chance to win outright. |
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12-13-22 | Pelicans -1.5 v. Jazz | Top | 100-121 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
The Pelicans have won seven straight and are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now. Utah has lost two straight and three of four, and the shine has come off their hot start a bit. New Orleans has a better offense and a much better defense, and they should dominate this game on both sides. This team looks very headstrong this season and we don’t think they will have a letdown after a pair of big wins over the Suns. |
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12-12-22 | Cavs -8.5 v. Spurs | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
We were on the Spurs for their last two wins, as we saw a slight upswing for them after losing nine games SU and ATS. Now they are fat and happy after two wins over Houston and Miami, two struggling teams, but now they are probably going to revert to their tanking ways and they face a true championship contender in Cleveland. Mitchell is questionable here. But we think the Cavs win by double digits whether he plays or not. This team plays excellent team basketball and the sum is greater than the individual parts. The Spurs are a struggling offensive team and the Cavs posses the No. 1 defense. San Antonio gives up more than 120 PPG, so we don’t think the Cavs will have any problem scoring enough to get this one over the posted number. Cleveland has covered in five of six meetings and four straight in San Antonio. |
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12-10-22 | Clippers -5.5 v. Wizards | Top | 114-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
To say this road trip has been rough for the Clippers would be an understatement. They have lost two straight, against the Magic in OT and then at the Heat. This is a long season, but this seems like a very crucial game for the struggling Clippers. We never know who will start for LA as their two stars are never a sure thing to make it on the court. But it’s very likely the Big Two should play here. Even if one of them doesn’t, this line will likely swing, but we won’t be deterred if it does. We think this is a great chance for a double digit win even if PG or Kawhi sit. Washington is coming in on a back-to-back. They are banged up as well. They haven’t been playing well, either. But the biggest thing is that we expect the Clippers to play with a sense of urgency here as a loss or another bad game might be the time to hit the panic button. We don’t think that will be needed, however, as we expect a comfortable win and we think the stock will be rising in the coming weeks for LA. Oh yeah, and they have covered in five of the last six meetings, so they normally play well against this opponent. |
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12-08-22 | Rockets v. Spurs +2 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
Make no mistake, the Spurs have been playing some of the worst basketball in the NBA and have been making an art out of tanking. But this looks like a very winnable game for them and they are going to get a win and cover at a certain point. We think tonight is the night. This team shot out of the gate with some great performances and was once one of the better bets in the league. Then some injuries hit and they fell off the cliff. But we think the value has swung the other way now and they should be a favorite here. Houston has only one more win than the Spurs. They are 3-12 away from home. They are 3-7-1 in the last 11 meetings. The Spurs have had extended rest coming into this one and should get a couple of their injured soldiers back for this game, and we expect a rare win from the home team tonight. |
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12-03-22 | Thunder v. Wolves UNDER 232 | Top | 135-128 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
The Thunder were on an over tear, but their offense has come back to earth a bit while the bookies have overadjusted their totals on a nightly basis. Two of their last three have gone under, and we think that is the way this one will go as well. Minnesota is 13-9 to the under this season. The Thunder have been having some scoring lapses lately and their best player is banged up as well. Also, the last five meetings in Minnesota have all gone under the posted number. |
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12-02-22 | Pacers +5 v. Jazz | Top | 119-139 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
The Jazz got off to a hot start but have cooled off big time and are now looking more like the team we expected to see entering the season. They also have some key injuries that are holding them back. They got a win last time out but that was their first in six games. Utah has excelled in the underdog role for betting purposes, but they are just 2-6 ATS as a favorite this season. Indiana is one of the best ATS teams in the league, and they quietly get the job done night in and night out. They are 8-3 ATS when getting more than three points as a dog. They are also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Utah and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings overall. |
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12-01-22 | Mavs v. Pistons +8 | Top | 125-131 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
Dallas is a very poor road team at 1-7 on the season. They have failed to cover in five straight on the road. Detroit is 8-3-2 ATS as an underdog of 7.5 or more, and they have served bettors well as a big underdog. Dallas is 2-11-1 ATS as a favorite of three or more points. At 5-14-1 ATS, this is the absolute worst ATS team in the league, cashing less than 27 percent of their games for bettors. Detroit’s only ATS loss in their last six games was last time out in a 30-point home loss to the Knicks. They will want to put in a much better effort in front of the home fans here. This is another inflated line for Dallas and this is an easy call to go against them. |
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11-30-22 | Spurs v. Thunder UNDER 231.5 | Top | 111-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
The Thunder offense has fallen off the cliff the last couple games, failing to score more than 105 in consecutive games, Looks like this team is trending to the under after being a hot over team for awhile. Besides the last game against the Lakers, which was a barnburner, the Spurs have had offensive issues and scored under the century mark in three of their last five games. The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings and we see this one going well under the number here. |
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11-25-22 | Wolves -5.5 v. Hornets | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
Minnesota has won five straight and they are playing with a lot of confidence right now. They are playing the best they have so far this season. Charlotte is just not a good team right now and will likely be missing a couple top players here. We think this game has blowout potential and the Wolves should win by double digits. Minnesota does well on the road against bad teams (8-2 ATS run) and we expect a dominant performance here. We have stayed away from the Wolves a lot this season because of a slow start but it looks like this team is figuring things out and the Wolves seem like a good Buy Low option right now for bettors. |
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11-23-22 | Nuggets v. Thunder OVER 231.5 | Top | 131-126 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
The Thunder have now gone over in seven straight and the oddsmakers can’t set a total high enough for this team right now. They are pushing the pace at one of the highest rates in the NBA and they just rely on scoring to be competitive more than defense. Denver hasn’t been playing great offensively but they have faced some strong defensive teams. This is a chance for them to open up the offense a bit and we think they have a monster night offensively as they have historically played well here. We are expecting another OKC track meet here as this should be a competitive game with both teams getting their share to put this one well over the posted number. |
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11-21-22 | Hawks v. Cavs -2 | Top | 102-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
After a 5-game skid, the Cavs are swinging back in the other direction and have now won two straight. This team has been streaky lately but this looks like an excellent spot for them to continue their win streak against a Hawks team that plays better at home. The Hawks have dropped three of four ATS, and they got throttled by Boston on their recent homestand. The Cavs normally step up big at home in these marquee game type situations. Atlanta hasn’t had much luck here in Cleveland as they have covered in only one of their last six meetings. We see that trend continuing here on Monday. |
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11-18-22 | Thunder v. Grizzlies OVER 230 | Top | 110-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
OKC’s offense is humming, and they have gone over in five straight games and scored more than 120 in each of those. Actually, they have scored over 130 in three of those (one OT game) and over 140 in a non-OT game. Memphis has a middle of the pack defense, and we don’t see them slowing the Thunder down tonight. And Memphis has an exceptional offense as well that can work without key players as they will again be without Bane tonight, but this team has shown in the past that they can perform at a high level with top players out. And we are confident that Memphis will be more than happy to run with OKC tonight. The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings. The last meeting saw 240+ points scored, and we think we will see the same type of game tonight. |
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11-17-22 | Spurs v. Kings -7 | Top | 112-130 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Sacramento is 10-3 ATS on the season and playing their best basketball of the season at the moment. This is starting to look an awful lot like a playoff team. They have won four straight: Golden State, Cleveland and Brooklyn were included in that bunch. They are coming off a 30+ point win over the Nets. They have the No. 2 offense in the NBA this season and are facing the league’s worst defense. We just think the Kings will be able to outscore the Spurs tonight. They have put up 120 or more in four straight and 153 against the Nets. They have also covered in 9 of 13 meetings and 4 of 5 in Sacramento. |
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11-09-22 | Bucks -5 v. Thunder | Top | 136-132 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
The Bucks suffered their first loss of the season last time out at Atlanta. It was a blowout and an embarrassing loss. But this is a great bounce back spot for what has been the best team in the NBA. After a hot start, OKC has come back to earth a bit and has lost three straight SU and ATS. They are pretty much a one-man team with SGA leading the way, but the Bucks have the defensive pieces to slow him down. Both meetings last year were blowouts, and we expect more of the same here. |
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11-03-22 | Warriors v. Magic UNDER 226.5 | Top | 129-130 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
These teams have a long history for the under as they have played to the under in five of seven overall and 10 of 14 in the last 14 in Orlando. The Magic are one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA thus far. They have been pretty solid defensively as they are in the upper half of the league for points allowed. We think they will be competitive in this game, and that won’t come from the offense so we think they will slow Golden State down. The Warriors haven’t been putting up crazy point totals lately. We don’t think they will here. Orlando has been averaging only 106 PPG on offense. We don’t see them getting too much over that tonight. |
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10-28-22 | Hawks v. Pistons +6.5 | Top | 136-112 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
These teams played here on Wednesday and Atlanta scored a five-point win. The Pistons are underrated and this is a possible play in tourney team. We don’t think they will play worse than Wednesday, and they were in that game all the way with a chance to win at the end. We think there’s a great chance they play even better as it’s tough to beat a team consecutive games like this. |
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10-27-22 | Grizzlies v. Kings OVER 236.5 | Top | 125-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
Memphis is 4-0 against the total this season. Their offense has been humming, and we expect them to put up a big number here. Sacramento is well rested and will run with the Grizzlies for sure. Both teams are way down the list of defensive teams so far. All three meetings last season went over the posted number. Memphis scored 124 or more in all three games. We think this game will be competitive so we believe that Sacramento will get their points as well. We just don’t see a lot of defense being played here, and the offenses should be on full display. The over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. |
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10-26-22 | Hawks v. Pistons +8 | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
Detroit is off to a slow start, but this team is not a bottom feeder this season. We think they are a contender for the play in tourney and a team in the rise. This is just too many points as a home dog. Detroit has played three of four on the road, but their one home game was a solid win, and we think they will be primed for a big performance tonight. The Hawks rarely play well here and are 0-4 ATS in their last four visits and 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings overall. The Hawks are 1-2 ATS despite playing all three at home against a weak schedule. |
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10-23-22 | Jazz v. Pelicans -8.5 | Top | 122-121 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Both teams are 2-0 SU and ATS, but one team is a championship contender and one team is playing over its head. We think this will be a high scoring game but we think this is where Utah comes back to earth a bit. New Orleans has looked very good to start the season. These teams normally play a high scoring game, and we expect the same here tonight but New Orleans wins by double digits. They might get 130+ on their own. |
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10-19-22 | Thunder v. Wolves -10.5 | Top | 108-115 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
We don’t take many double digit favorites in the NBA, but we think this one is warranted. Minnesota has just crushed OKC in recent meetings. Like CRUSHED. Like all three games were decided by 30 or more. OKC was one of the best ATS teams in the league last season. We used them a lot. We will probably use them a lot midseason once this young team starts to gel. And they have a great leader in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. At some point, he will get the best out of this roster. But this team is much different than the one that covered so many games last season and there are going to be some growing pains. Minnesota has their best team in years and a legit contender. We think OKC runs into a buzzsaw here in the season opener. |
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10-18-22 | 76ers +2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 29 m | Show |
The Sixers seem very solid heading into the new season and we think this team is in a great place and primed for a strong start and a possible championship run. Boston not only has the hangover from losing in the finals, but they had a turbulent offseason to say the last with their coach being suspended for the season and losing offseason acquisition Gallinari for the season with an injury. And we forget that this team started very slow last season before turning it on around the holidays, and we think a repeat could be in the cards. Philly has covered in seven of the last eight meetings. Their non-cover during that span? The 135-87 beatdown in February. We have no doubt the Sixers remember that game and they will want to play their best here against a team they normally exceed expectations against. |
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06-13-22 | Celtics +4 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
This series has worked out for the Zig Zag Theory to perfection, with each team trading wins/covers and the total going the opposite way each game. We still think Boston is the better team and we think they have a great chance for the outright win here. Curry went off in Game 4 after the Celtics had been in control most of the way through. But we expect a focused group tonight and we think they break the stalemate tonight with a chance to go back to Boston to close things out in Game 6. |
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06-10-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 107-97 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
The Warriors had some injury concerns with Steph Curry but it looks like he is good to go for Game 4. But we are not sure he will be 100% effective. If this was the regular season, he would probably take some time off to properly heal. And there is always the chance of reaggravating the injury as the Celtics are one of the most physical teams in the league. But even with Curry at full strength, we like the Celtics here. We think they are the superior team, and the hungrier one. The Warriors have a decent supporting cast for their stars, but the team goes cold too often unlike the best championship teams from Golden State. And then there are Draymond Green’s antics. He is a great defender but he is just not helping the team a lot in this series. With the Big Game 3 win, the Celtics have their eyes on the prize and we don’t see them blowing home court advantage here. We think they get another comfortable win tonight. |
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06-02-22 | Celtics +4 v. Warriors | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
We think the Celtics are underrated in this series and we think they have a great chance to pull off the series win. We do think this series will go far. We saw Golden State dominate the postseason so far, and that is why we have this steep series line here, but we think the Warriors had a pretty easy path. Memphis is a young team that is still learning playoff basketball and Dallas still needs some pieces to be a championship contender. The Nuggets were a pushover. But Boston has had a much tougher path. They swept a Nets team that was one of the title favorites. They beat the defending champs in the next round and then the No. 1 seed Miami Heat in seven games, winning Game 7 on the road no less. They are more battle tested. And while we have a ton of respect for Golden State and what they have done, they aren’t as hungry as the Celtics and this isn’t the best team they have had during their championship runs. The Celtics are coming off a couple grueling series, but they have had three days off here, which will be plenty of rest. We think Golden State has been off too long for this and they should be a little rusty. Boston always gets up for this opponent and they have covered eight of the last nine meetings here, a trend that stretches back years since these teams don’t play often. Boston has lost the last two Game 1s, which put them in a hole in each series early. We think they bring their A Game here to get the upper hand and steal home court advantage. Boston was a Top 5 ATS team this season and often underestimated by the oddsmakers. We think that is the case here for Game 1 again, and we think the Celtics have a great chance for the outright win. |
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05-21-22 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 207.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Both teams have won a blowout game in this series. Game 1 was a free for all where there wasn’t much defense played in the first half and both teams were hot shooting. Game 2 saw lots of easy baskets in garbage time in another blowout. But this is such an important game in this series that we expect both teams to get serious about defense here. It’s very telling after two high-scoring games that the bookies haven’t made a major adjustment to this number. We think the books are begging the public to jump on the over here, but we will side with the books and sharp money here with a strong position on the under. |
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05-20-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
The Mavs have shown themselves to be very resilient in these playoffs. We don’t take much from their Game 1 performance. Just like Boston, they can bounce back here and if they win then they have the upper hand and home court advantage in this series. They will no doubt shoot a lot better than they did in Game 1. We expect a close, high scoring game here and we still think this will be a good series despite the Game 1 result. |
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05-19-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Heat | Top | 127-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
We will give Boston a mulligan for their Game 1 performance. They didn’t come to play, and two starters being out did not help. Smart should be back tonight, and he will help on both ends of the court. This team is well coached and very talented. And they will be able to make the necessary adjustments, especially on the defensive end. We think they have a great chance to win outright here in a low-scoring affair.  |
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05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 204 | Top | 107-118 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Boston is head and shoulders the best defensive team in the NBA, and we expect a real low scoring Game 1 here. Boston is in Beast Mode as they are coming straight off their Game 7 against the Bucks. They put on a defensive clinic in Games 6 and 7, holding the Bucks to 95 and 81 points, respectively. The Heat are a Top 5 defensive team and they held the Sixers to under the century mark in three of the last four games. These teams will be feeling each other out here in Game 1 and we just don’t see a free flowing, high scoring game here. This is one of the lowest totals of the season in the NBA for good reason. We think we could see both teams wind up under the century mark. |
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05-15-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 81-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
We have been big on Boston this whole series and this is not going to change here for Game 7. This has been one of the strongest teams in the NBA all season after a slow start, and we feel they have a championship-caliber squad this season. They are hungry. They have also been one of the best betting teams in the NBA this season and one you can trust laying points. They have also covered in 12 of the last 16 meetings (one push). |
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05-13-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
This just seems like a 7-game series to us, and the Celtics just need a win here and they will be heavy favorites to advance at home. Besides Game 1, all their losses were games that could have easily won, but when they have won they have been dominant. This has been one of the best ATS teams this season and we think they are being undervalued again here on Friday as we have them as a slight favorite and we expect them to win outright. |
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05-11-22 | Warriors -4 v. Grizzlies | Top | 95-134 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
The Grizzlies seemed to have given their last gasp last time but still came up short after leading most of the game. Then more bad news came as word arrived that Ja Morant will likely miss the rest of the postseason. So this team for the first time this season knows that there are no reinforcements of their star coming to help, and during the regular season when Morant was out the team performed at a high level knowing he would be back and they just needed to keep the team afloat. Golden State is the better team in the better mental state, and we expect a comfortable win tonight. |
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05-10-22 | Mavs v. Suns OVER 214.5 | Top | 80-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Both Games 1 and 2 in Phoenix went over. Way over. Like a combined 41.5 points over in both games. Both games went under in Dallas, but Game 4 was just barely under and one of the many missed threes by the Suns would have sent it over the posted number. We expect a very competitive game here and think both teams will get their points. But mainly we think Phoenix will regain their offensive touch at home. They averaged 125 in the two games in Phoenix, and if they can get anywhere close to that, this total will sail over. |
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05-08-22 | Heat v. 76ers -133 | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
Embiid showed just how valuable he is to this team that looked dead in the water after Game 2. With him back in the lineup, it picked up the whole team and they won by 20 in Game 3 while holding the Heat to 79 points. Embiid, along with Doncic for Dallas, is one of the most important players in the NBA to his team’s success. With him back on the court, Philly is not only a threat to win this series but the NBA title as well. We think they are right back in this thing, and this series now has the look of one that could go the distance. We think the Sixers will serve court at home and even this thing up tonight. |
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05-07-22 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 212.5 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 3 h 12 m | Show |
The first two games in this series went under by a combined 49 points, and we still don’t think the oddsmakers made enough of an adjustment here. This is such a crucial game in this series and these teams have had extra rest so the energy for defensive intensity will be there. Boston is the No. 1 team in the NBA for points allowed and they have really been strong thus far on the defensive end, and the Bucks can play defense with anyone in the league when they exert themselves. We see both teams locking down defensively here once again and this one has a great chance to finish under 200 just likes Games 1 and 2. |
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05-04-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 109-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Dallas had an off game in Game 1 and they still almost covered. They were outscored in the first three quarters and we think we will see a more complete game from them here as they play a close game with a chance to win. It looks like the Suns don’t have any answer for Doncic and we expect the rest of the team to step up and have a better game. Dallas is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and they will make some adjustments tonight to slow down the Suns offense. |
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
Boston played very poorly in Game 1 and we expect this team to bounce back strong here. They have high expectations this postseason, and losing here would be devastating for their series chances. Boston had covered seven straight in this series before the Game 1 loss, and we think they match up well here and expect a comfortable win from the home team tonight. |
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04-28-22 | Mavs v. Jazz | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Dallas has covered four straight in this series and we think they are the superior team. Utah just doesn’t have it this season and we expect some big changes in the offseason, which will start tomorrow for the Jazz. Mitchell will probably play here and he is probably being forced back too soon in a desperate move and may hurt the team more than help on the court tonight. Dallas has some history in the postseason with series dragging on too long so we think they will treat this like a Game 7 and lock down on defense. |
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04-26-22 | Pelicans +7 v. Suns | Top | 97-112 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
The Pelicans aren’t your typical 8 seed. They retooled the roster mid season and this team has some nice veteran leadership now and a strong roster. The Suns are a team we did not believe in last season. We were wrong on that front as they advanced to the NBA Finals, but they got a lot of good luck because of major injuries to opponents in their path. But they will not have that same type of luck this season and we see them facing some adversity as they already have taken a blow with the Booker injury. We expect a close game here and one that the Pelicans very much have a chance to win outright. |
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04-21-22 | Mavs +7 v. Jazz | Top | 126-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
We try to look at an NBA Playoff series beforehand and see how it plays out. We don’t think the Jazz have it this season and this team was really disappointing all season besides a few flashes where they looked like last year’s team. But we expect the Mavs to win this series, and they are a good team even without their star in the lineup. Doncic is questionable here, but we think they have a great chance to win without him as they did in Game 2. With the Game 2 win, Dallas has now covered in six of seven meetings. They are the much better defensive team, and that really matters in the postseason. |
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04-20-22 | Nets v. Celtics -3 | Top | 107-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
This is a very public line in our opinion. The Nets played a very good Game 1 and still came out on the losing side and Boston had control of things for much of the game. We feel that was their best chance for an upset in Boston and they blew it. We think that close scare will have Boston playing even better this time. There’s a reason Brooklyn was in the play in this season. This team dealt with a lot of roster issues but they were also one of the most disappointing betting teams in the NBA and always overvalued by the oddsmakers. That is the case again here in Game 2 as we think Boston earns a comfortable win. |
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04-16-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | Top | 130-117 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
The Timberwolves are a great story this year. But we were hoping they won the play in game because we wanted to go against them in the first round, especially in this first game. This just seems like a team that is on the verge but not quite ready yet, and Memphis is a real contender this year. The Grizzlies have had extra rest and time to prepare for this matchup, and this doesn’t seem like a team that would be rusty entering the first game of the postseason. They have also owned Minnesota from a betting perspective. They have covered 24 of the last 32 meetings here in Memphis and 16 of the last 21 meetings overall. We think they will be ready for their moment in the spotlight here in Game 1. |
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04-12-22 | Clippers +3.5 v. Wolves | Top | 104-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
The Clippers played well down the stretch. Better than the Timberwolves. And they have had Paul George back and he has stepped right in and was not too rusty. The Clippers are 15-6-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings in Minnesota, and this is a place they always play well. With George back in the mix and no clear dominant team in the West, the Clippers have a chance to go far if they can make the playoffs, especially if they can get Kawhi back at some point. We think they will play to win this one and we think they have a great chance. |
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04-10-22 | Spurs v. Mavs -11 | Top | 120-130 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Dallas need a win for seeding and the Spurs have two road games coming up in the play in tourney in hopes to make the playoffs. While they would normally be up for an in-state rival, they won’t have any focus on this game at all. They don’t want to use too much energy here. We don’t see any defense from the Spurs here and key players will get limited minutes. The Mavs need to win and they will have time off during the play in tourney, so they will play hard here. Blowout. |
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04-08-22 | Hawks v. Heat UNDER 231 | Top | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
The Hawks have gone under in three straight and we think the oddsmakers have posted another number too high for them tonight. The Heat are the No. 3 defense in the NBA for points allowed. Atlanta is not as strong offensively on the road as they are at home. Teams also want to ramp up the defense as the playoffs approach and the game changes a bit in the postseason. The under is 22-8 in the last 30 meetings in Miami, and we think that trend continues here on Friday. |
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04-06-22 | Suns v. Clippers -2.5 | Top | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
The Suns have had the No. 1 seed clinched for awhile. That has reflected in their play on the court as they have failed to cover in four straight and they have lost two of three outright. They come in on a back-to-back after a win over the Lakers last night. They probably had motivation there to send the Lakers packing from postseason contention. But now they head on the road for a B2B and we don’t see them really caring about this game too much. And they don’t want to risk injury. With the Clippers playing in the play-in, they can’t afford to rest here in the final games, and they need to keep momentum going, They are also actively trying to get Paul George back into the mix and to gel with the team before the play-in. So we think they will be real motivated here. They have won and covered in three of four and should have covered in Chicago but lost in OT as an underdog. |
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04-05-22 | Bucks v. Bulls UNDER 233.5 | Top | 127-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
Three straight and six of the last seven have gone under the posted number. This is a rivalry and we think both teams dig deep on defense, especially with the postseason quickly approaching. Milwaukee has held Chicago under the century mark in five of the last seven meetings, including two of the last three meetings. Six of the last nine games for the Bulls have gone under the posted number. The bookies have had to post some big numbers because of the crazy scoring we have seen the last couple of months, but the postseason is coming fast and teams will take the games more seriously and dig deeper defensively. We think the bookies got this total wrong also. |
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04-01-22 | Pistons v. Thunder UNDER 221.5 | Top | 110-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
The Pistons are in a real letdown spot here. They had one of their biggest wins of the season last night at home vs. Philly. Now they have to travel on the road, on a back-to-back, to play the lowly Thunder. We don’t see how they get up for this game. Not to mention the under is 8-4 in 12 Detroit back-to-backs this season. The Pistons are trending to the under, with four of their last five going under the posted number. The most points they have allowed in those four unders was 104. They held Philly to 94 last night. OKC is dead last in points per game this season. Their best player, Alexander, was shelved for the year recently. They have a hodge-podge group of players right now because of a slew of injuries. OKC has been an over team lately not because of their offense but because of lack of defense. We don’t think this Pistons team will be able to take advantage of that defense on a B2B. When OKC has put up big points it’s normally because of the pace the opponent brings, but we don’t see a lot of pace here tonight. The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in OKC. There have been some crazy high-scoring games in the NBA lately and we think as a result that bookies have bumped up totals across the board, but this is one where they have created value on the under.  |
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03-31-22 | Cavs v. Hawks OVER 228.5 | Top | 107-131 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
Both of the last two meetings went over 139, and we see this one going into the 130s also. Cleveland has been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, but they have fallen off in that department recently or are at least very inconsistent. They allowed 120 last time out to Dallas, one of the lower ranked offensive teams in the NBA. Atlanta’s offense is clicking big time and they have scored 120+ in three straight. They are very good offensively at home. We expect both teams to be competitive here and both will get their points to put this one over the posted number. |
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03-28-22 | Kings +13 v. Heat | Top | 100-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
This is more of a fade of Miami than a statement about Sacramento. Miami is in a freefall right now and this is a very public number. Miami has dropped four straight and they have covered only one of their last nine. They had that very public blowup on the sideline last week, and that is the type of thing that can linger for a long time. Can the Heat win this one and get back on track? Absolutely. But we just don’t see this team getting back on track in a big way with a blowout. The Kings enter having won two straight. They have covered three in a row as they also lost to the Suns in OT. So they are playing well right now. The Kings are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings so they normally get up for this opponent. |
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03-24-22 | Wizards v. Bucks -13 | Top | 102-114 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
The Bucks started off the season slow. Maybe it was the NBA Finals hangover. But no matter, they are in playoff form now and have won nine of 11 games. They have covered in eight of those games, so despite lots of respect from the oddsmakers they are still getting the job done in a big way. They have motivation as well as they will want to get that No. 1 seed, and they are currently a couple games back of Miami. Washington is mathematically still alive, but who are we kidding. This team will be eliminated soon, and right now they are probably just playing out the string. If their last game was any indication, that is exactly the case as they lost to the Rockets by 18. This team is getting blown out on a regular basis, and we don’t see the Bucks breaking too much of a sweat to win this one by double digits. |
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03-23-22 | Magic v. Thunder +2 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Orlando is coming off one of its biggest wins of the year last night at home against Golden State. Now they have to turn around on a back-to-back and play a team that is desperate for a win and one they just beat at home on Sunday. OKC will be looking for revenge. We just think this is a big letdown spot for Orlando and this team doesn’t deserve to be a road favorite over any team in the NBA. OKC is one of the best ATS teams in the NBA at 43-25-4 on the season. They have dealt with a lot of injuries but they still manage to play above oddsmakers expectations, and they probably have the best player on the court right now in Alexander. OKC has covered in six of the last seven meetings. OKC has had a very tough schedule. If they are to end the losing streak, this is the game to do it. |
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03-22-22 | Bulls v. Bucks -7 | Top | 98-126 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
We like to back a good team after a bad loss, and that is the case here tonight. Last time we saw the Bucks they lost by almost 20 in Minnesota. They have had two days to let that loss go, and we think they will be motivated and prepared against a regional rival here. The Greek Freak should be back here as he is probable, and he is well rested after missing the Minnesota game. He hasn’t been out long enough to be rusty, but he has been out long enough to regain some energy that is crucial at this point of the season. Chicago is on a back-to-back here, and we see a dominating win from the home team. |
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03-21-22 | Wolves v. Mavs -2 | Top | 108-110 | Push | 0 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
Dallas has lost two straight and they were embarrassed last time out on the road in Charlotte and they lost to Philly on the road also. This is getting down to the nitty gritty with the postseason in sight and we don’t see the Mavs dropping three straight, and they are back home for this one. Both these teams are close together in the standings and this is a crucial game for the Mavs as they need to fend off the charging Wolves but also avoid dropping down into the play in seedings. They have won eight of their last 11 so we aren’t to worried about those two losses. They are in fine form overall. And the Wolves have had some nice wins for sure but their recent run is a bit deceiving as they have faced teams with missing stars and many bad teams. They will face a very motivated team tonight and one that is the better club, and this line is more than fair. Dallas has a strong betting history against the Wolves as they are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Dallas and 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings overall. |
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03-18-22 | Clippers +5.5 v. Jazz | Top | 92-121 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
The Clippers have covered in three of five, but they are playing even better than that looks. They missed the cover by a single point last time out vs. Toronto and they were catching seven in Cleveland and lost in OT, so they should have covered that one and there was a questionable call against them at the end of regulation. Utah will be missing some key pieces here as they have two starters out, including their best player, and some key role players. The usual suspects are out for LA, but they have their main core that has played this season ready to go. The Clippers have covered in four of the last five meetings and we think they go all out here to try and win this one outright as the Jazz are very vulnerable tonight missing these players. |
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03-17-22 | Pistons +2.5 v. Magic | Top | 134-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Detroit has been one of the best NBA bets in March and they have covered in 11 of their last 12. Orlando has been inconsistent, even for a bad team, and they are coming off a 40+ beatdown here at home to Brooklyn. Detroit has covered in 7 of the last 10 meetings, and we think this is a great chance for a rare road win for them. |
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03-16-22 | Lakers v. Wolves -8.5 | Top | 104-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
The Lakers continue to get too much respect from the oddsmakers. This looks like a double-digit line to us. The Lakers are coming off consecutive double digit losses. This looks like another blowout to us. Minnesota looks like a real contender with eight wins and covers in their last nine games. They are peaking while many other teams are in their mid-season funk. They already had their letdown game against Orlando and that is the only game they didn’t cover in the last nine. The Lakers are always one of the worst ATS teams in the league every year even when they are a dominant team, but they have been one of the worst ATS teams again this season and they are once again being given too much credit by the oddsmakers as we had this game handicapped at -13 and think the home team had tremendous value here. |
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03-12-22 | Bucks -125 v. Warriors | Top | 109-122 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
The Bucks have win six straight and they are starting to play like the championship clubs we are used to after slogging through most of the first part of the season. They have covered in five of the last six. Golden State has won and covered two straight, but this team is just not playing well overall as they had lost five straight before this mini winning streak. The Bucks have covered 9 of 12 here in the Bay Area and they normally play well here. Throw out the records here because Milwaukee is the superior team and we think they will bring their A Game to the hardwood tonight. |
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03-10-22 | Nets v. 76ers -4 | Top | 129-100 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
The Nets haven’t had any stability in the roster this season, and that has led to some disappointing results on the court for the team that was favored entering the season in the East. There are some very wacky trends out there that are meaningless, but this one fits the Nets perfectly: they are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games where they won by 10 or more points. So they normally follow up a good game with a dud, and they won by double digits against Charlotte last time out. Philly is just quietly getting the job done and they have won eight of 10 and when they win they normally cover. We think the home team has a great chance for a 7+-point win here. |
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03-05-22 | Warriors v. Lakers +6 | Top | 116-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Really not a true Must Win but the Lakers really need a strong performance here. They were embarrassed last time out against their Little Brother Clippers, and they have lost four straight. They will at least give a lot of effort here. Just can’t see another blowout. The Warriors have dropped five of six, so they aren’t in the best form right now. We rarely ever take the Lakers ATS because they are normally overvalued but the public bettors have jumped off the ship and there is actually value in this line tonight. |
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03-03-22 | Lakers v. Clippers -2.5 | Top | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
The Clippers have won six straight in this series. They have owned the Lakers recently. They covered all but one of those games, and in that lone ATS loss the Clippers controlled most of the game until a late Lakers rally. The Lakers are the main rival for the Clippers, but it is a rare one-way rivalry in sports. The Lakers have other more important rivals, so this is normally just another game to them. And the Lakers stink this season, while the Clippers have played pretty well through major injuries and roster turnover. |
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03-02-22 | Thunder v. Nuggets OVER 225.5 | Top | 119-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
The Thunder have been giving up points in bunches lately. Five straight games have gone over as a result. We see this one being a high scoring affair. Denver has scored 115 or more in five straight. Alexander is back in the swing of things for OKC and he has been playing lights out on offense since he returned. We expect another strong game from him here, and the Thunder have been playing faster recently. Also, we think OKC might be more competitive in this game than the oddsmakers think, so we expect the road team to get their share of the points to get this one over the posted number. |
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02-25-22 | Clippers +1.5 v. Lakers | Top | 105-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
The Clippers are the disrespected little brother in their own city, and they normally get up big for this matchup. They are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 when the official road team in this matchup. They should have covered in the last meeting but they fell apart late but still won the game. This Lakers team is a mess and we just don’t think they are good or going to turn it around at any point. Nice value in this line tonight. |
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02-24-22 | Cavs v. Pistons UNDER 211 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
Off the extended All Star break these two shaky offenses should struggle to put points on the board. We think that both defenses will have a lot of energy and we expect this one to go well under the posted number. Cleveland played some good offensive teams before the break and had some high scoring games, but we think this situation after the long break presents itself to the under. |
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02-15-22 | Cavs v. Hawks UNDER 220 | Top | 116-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
Cleveland is the No. 1 defensive team for points allowed, and they have had two nights off so they should have lots of energy on the defensive end here. This is the highest total the Cavs have faced in ages, and it’s too high in our opinion. Five of the last seven games for Cleveland have gone under the posted number with a combo of an amazing defense and an offense that often leaves a lot to be desired. Atlanta has finished under the century mark on offense the last two good defensive teams they played (Dallas and Boston), and we don’t see them going off offensively against this Cavs defense. |
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02-12-22 | Magic +16.5 v. Suns | Top | 105-132 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Orlando has covered in six of the last seven meetings in Orlando. The Magic have won four of their lasy eight, so they are playing decent basketball right now for a bottom feeder. Whenever you see a spread like this you have to look for a reason to play the underdog. You can cover even in a blowout. Phoenix just played their NBA Finals revenge game against Milwaukee and they have the Clippers on deck, so they probably won’t take this game too seriously as they can win without 100% effort. |
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02-06-22 | Celtics -9.5 v. Magic | Top | 116-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Boston has won four straight and six of seven. This team has dealt with all sports of adversity this season to start following their very disappointing season last year. But they seem back on track lately, and they are healthy now. Boston has been one of the best betting teams of the last five or so years, before last season happened. But when they are on track they can easily cover a large road spread like this against a lousy team on a back-to-back. They have covered six of the last seven in Orlando. |
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