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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-04-22 | Thunder +8.5 v. Blazers | Top | 96-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Does Portland have Dame Lillard back? Of course not. This spread doesn’t make sense. Portland has been playing well with a turnstile roster, but we don’t think they deserve to be this big of favorites. OKC just beat Portland – by 18! – the last day of January. Portland scored only 81 points. And they didn’t hit the century mark last time out against the Lakers in one of the worst performances of the season. We expect a low scoring game here, which makes the points for the underdog more attractive, and we will sprinkle a little on the moneyline as well. |
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02-03-22 | Lakers v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 110-111 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
The Clippers have had two nights off, while the Lakers played last night. That rest advantage is crucial during the mid-season slog. The Lakers won last night, but we have to say that might have been one of the most unimpressive wins we have seen in awhile. Both teams played horribly, but the Blazers played one of the worst games of the season and lost by only five points. They took 20 more shots than the Lakers and hit in the mid-30s for shooting percentage. Late in the game their shooting was especially atrocious. So we give more credit to the Blazers for losing than the Lakers winning. Now they face a rested Clippers team that has been playing the most consistent basketball they have played this season. They have had more roster continuity recently and this has been one of the teams in the NBA hit hardest by Covid and injuries. They lost last time out at Indiana on a back-to-back and on the last game of their long road trip. The first game back after a long trip can be tricky, but we like how the Clippers have had two days off. This allowed a day for the players to focus on personal matters before getting back into basketball mindset. The Clippers had covered seven of eight before that loss to Indiana. The Clippers want this game more. This is a one-sided rivalry since the Lakers have bigger rivals but not the Clippers. They are considered the Little Brother in LA, and they normally bring their best performance when playing the Lakers. They have won four straight meetings and covered in five straight, and they have a long term 17-8 ATS mark when listed as the home squad. The Clippers have a better record (barely) despite having worse injury luck. The Lakers were supposed to be championship favorites. The Clippers were going to be lucky to make the postseason. We think this Clippers roster is definitely a playoff team without Kawhi and George, and they are starting to play better and gel together despite the absence of their stars. |
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02-02-22 | Nuggets v. Jazz -2.5 | Top | 104-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
The Nuggets have been playing well, but they are on their last game of a grueling six-game road trip. From the looks of their performance last night in Minnesota, they are ready to go home. And not only are they on a back-to-back, but they are playing their third game in four nights. They are 1-6-1 ATS on the second leg of a back-to-back, so they traditionally don’t play well in these situations. Utah has been a dumpster fire lately because of injuries. Now Ingles is out for the season. They have lost five straight. But four of those losses were to Phoenix (X2), Memphis and Golden State. This isn’t exactly a Must Win Game, but we think they will bring their A Game in order to end this losing streak, and Denver is very susceptible to a blowout because of their travel situation. The Nuggets are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 trips to Utah. |
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02-01-22 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 223.5 | Top | 124-120 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
These teams haven’t even sniffed this totals number in the last five meetings. We see another game that finishes below 220. In fact, the under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in San Antonio. Golden State comes in on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights, so we think this could be a letdown spot for them. They still have the No. 1 defense in the NBA for points allowed. |
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01-30-22 | Spurs +13.5 v. Suns | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
This is the most points the Spurs have gotten all season as an underdog. We think it’s too many tonight. San Antonio has been one of the better bets in the NBA with a winning ATS record. They do their best work as an underdog. They are 12-6 ATS when getting seven or more points. The Suns are only 5-5 ATS when laying double digits. The Spurs have won two of three and they are playing pretty well right now. We think they keep this one within double digits. |
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01-28-22 | Celtics v. Hawks OVER 217.5 | Top | 92-108 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
Both teams are healthy and have been playing well lately, and we see a very competitive game here where both teams get their points. Boston has played very good defense the last two games, holding Sacramento and Washington to 75 and 87 points, respectively. But they are facing a much stronger offense here, and on the road. Atlanta averages over 111 PPG. They are even better at home at 113 PPG. They have scored 110 or more in six of their last seven. They have scored over 120 in three of their last five games. Boston has scored 128 and 116 in their last two games. We think both teams get over 110 here. Four of the last six meetings have gone over the posted number. |
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01-25-22 | Clippers +5 v. Wizards | Top | 116-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
The Clippers have covered in three of four games, and we think this is a very winnable game for them. The two big stars are still out for awhile, but the role players are mostly back and this is a pretty talented team even without the Big 2 but they haven’t had a consistent roster yet this season. We think as long as this core group stays healthy that the Clippers will start winning more games and covering more spreads. The Clippers are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. |
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01-24-22 | Jazz v. Suns UNDER 221 | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
We agree with the oddsmakers that this one has a good chance for a blowout, which would bode well for the under. Both teams are trending to the under. The Jazz have gone under in four straight. The Suns have gone under in five of six. The Suns are one of the stronger under teams on the season, and this team has one of the best defenses in the NBA and they are very underrated in that aspect. The Jazz have failed to reach the century mark in three of their last six games, and we think they might just barely get there tonight as they are missing some key pieces. The under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Phoenix. |
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01-21-22 | Rockets +11 v. Warriors | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Houston is playing with a lot of confidence right now. They have won three of four, all on the road. They will want to put their best foot forward tonight against one of the best teams in the conference. Golden State is coming in on a back to back and they played in OT last night so fatigue will definitely be an issue. This team has not been consistent lately, and they have upcoming games against playoff teams like Utah and Dallas that they will probably give full energy for. We think they might not bring it here. |
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01-21-22 | Thunder +9.5 v. Hornets | Top | 98-121 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
The Thunder are one of the best ATS teams in the NBA this season. They suffer the occasional blowout but they more often than not play it close and lose the game but cover as a big dog. And when they do suffer one of those blowouts, they normally come back strong the next game. They are 4-0 ATS when losing by 10 or more points their previous game. OKC has covered four straight here in Charlotte and they are 17-7-1 in the last 25 meetings. |
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01-19-22 | Pacers v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 111-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
After their almost 40 point loss at Denver on Saturday, the Lakers faced their harshest criticism from the media, and even Magic Johnson chimed in on Twitter, bashing the team’s performance. LeBron went on Twitter to say this team will do better and Westbrook had to respond to the Johnson comments. We think this team has circled the wagon a bit and we expect another solid performance after they beat Utah last time out. Sometimes a team just needs a spark, and we think the Lakers found it. The Pacers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games, despite some very generous spreads. The Lakers have been getting the job done against the worst teams as they are 4-0 ATS against sub-.500 teams. And the Lakers are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings overall. |
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01-17-22 | Thunder +11.5 v. Mavs | Top | 102-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
The Mavs have been playing very well. But this OKC team just has a knack for covering the spread and keeping games close. They don’t often get the outright win, so that keeps the value with this team. They have covered six of their last eight overall with one push. They are 27-14-1 ATS on the season. The Mavs have been blowing teams out. But this is their third game in four nights even though they were off on Sunday. OKC has the rest advantage because they played Saturday but not Friday. Dallas is 3-6 ATS when laying 5 or more points this season. OKC is 23-11-1 ATS when getting 3 or more points as a dog. OKC is solid defensively and Dallas is a Top 5 defense. The total is low and we expect a low scoring game, which makes every point in a big line more valuable for the underdog. These teams met in OKC about two weeks ago and the Mavs won by nine. The Thunder were without their best player for that game and they are much healthier tonight. We expect a close game. |
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01-16-22 | Jazz v. Nuggets UNDER 224 | Top | 125-102 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Denver has scored 133 and 140 in their last two games. So the oddsmakers have to post a big number here. But we think this one will go well under the posted number. Denver is on a back-to-back and averages only 105 PPG in these situations. Utah has been giving up a lot of points but this team has traditionally been one of the best defensive teams, and we think they know they need to step up on defense tonight in order to have a chance to win. They are also getting defensive help as Gobert should return tonight. Denver has been playing strong defense and has held 3 of 4 opponents under the century mark. |
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01-13-22 | Warriors v. Bucks UNDER 224 | Top | 99-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Both teams are trending to the under with three of their last four going under the posted total. Both teams have struggled lately on the offensive end. Golden State has failed to reach the century mark in three of their last four games. Milwaukee averaged around 103 in their last two losses to the Hornets. And don’t forget that Golden State has the No. 1 defense in the NBA. As long as there is no OT here we should beat this total easily. |
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01-12-22 | Rockets v. Spurs -6.5 | Top | 128-124 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
The Spurs are a bit in desperation mode here as they have lost seven of the last eight games. They have played a brutally tough schedule, however. Their last eight games included matchups with: NY and Brooklyn, Philly, Boston, Toronto, Memphis and Utah. They have lost two of their last six games in overtime. Seven of their last eight were on the road. Now they are back home and very much in need of a win. They have the perfect opponent to get it against tonight as the Rockets are of a much lower caliber than most of the Spurs recent opponents. They have lost their last three games by a full 40+ points over the very generous lines they have been given. This looks like another potential blowout but we think a comfortable Spurs lead is all but certain. They have one of the best coaches in NBA history. They have covered five of the last seven meetings in San Antonio. |
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01-11-22 | Thunder +9 v. Wizards | Top | 118-122 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
The Thunder are one of the best ATS teams in the NBA and they are decently healthy and they had the night off Monday. No reason they should be getting this many points at Washington, a lousy ATS team that hasn’t been favored by this many points against anyone this season. When they have been a favorite of three or more points, they are 5-10 ATS. OKC has covered in four of their last five games, while the Wizards have failed to cover in three straight. OKC has the rare game where they get blown out of the water, but this is a winnable game for them and we think they put their best foot forward tonight. |
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01-07-22 | Kings +8.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-121 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
The Kings are definitely the more healthy team right now. This team has been back and forth and you kind of never know what you are going to get with them on a nightly basis. But they are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams, and we think they match up well tonight, especially against this inflated number. This is a winnable game for them. The Nuggets are coming off two consecutive losses, so they aren’t in top form. They also are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. |
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01-05-22 | Raptors v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 117-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
We like to back a good team after a bad/embarrassing loss, and that is the case here for the Bucks on Wednesday as they suffered an embarrassing home defeat last time out to the Pistons (they were 17-point favorites; we had the Pistons plus the points). That snapped a six-game winning streak. We think the Bucks are in a good spot to bounce back here. Toronto has been playing well but are coming in on a back-to-back. They have done well in these situations, but they become harder as the season wears on. This is also their third game in four nights, while the Bucks are well rested as they have had a much lighter schedule. But Milwaukee should be ultra motivated tonight. A big win here puts that Detroit loss well in the rearview mirror and can be chalked up as a bad night. |
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12-28-21 | Cavs -4.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 104-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
Cleveland is by far the best ATS team in the NBA, and they still hold value in the odds as the public bettors are not big on this team with the absence of any big stars. But this team plays great fundamental basketball and strong defense, and they are absolutely a playoff team and one that could put a scare into one of the contenders. They are on a different level then the Pels, and we see another comfortable win SU and ATS here as the odds are in our favor again. |
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12-25-21 | Mavs v. Jazz UNDER 214 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Dallas is one of the top under teams in the NBA at 20-10-1 for the under. The oddsmakers are scared to post too low totals with this team, and we will continue to take advantage. They are facing the league’s best offense tonight, but Dallas plays at the slowest pace in the NBA, and they will slow the game down tonight to give themselves the best chance to be competitive, especially with their best offensive player sidelined. These are also two Top 8 defenses, so we don’t expect either team to have a crazy offensive day. We think the most likely two scenarios here are that Dallas slows down the game and plays strong defense to keep this close or that the Jazz blow them out and keep them to a real low score. We think both scenarios play well for the under. Three straight meetings between these teams have gone under the posted total, and we see that trend continuing here on the Christmas nightcap. |
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12-23-21 | Thunder +15 v. Suns | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
Whenever an NBA team is catching this many points, you have to take a look at the underdog and see if there is a good chance they can cover. We can cover this line even in a blowout. And we think the Thunder are primed to cover tonight. OKC is the No. 3 ATS team in the NBA at 19-11 ATS. They are even better than the Suns, who have been great ATS also. Even though the Thunder are on a B2B, they have a favorable injury report tonight (good thing there is no nightlife in OKC!). They are also in good form as they have won three straight SU and covered in four straight ATS. All of those wins came against playoff contenders. This is a letdown spot for the Suns. Phoenix played the Lakers last time out, and they are preparing for their rematch against the Warriors on Christmas. So they probably won’t give full effort here against OKC. And we think the Thunder will play hard here against the best team in the NBA. OKC has a strong betting history here as they have covered in seven of the last nine meetings. |
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12-22-21 | Clippers -5.5 v. Kings | Top | 105-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
We like to take a good team after a bad loss. We aren’t sure yet if this Clippers team is a good team or not yet, as they have looked great one night then awful the next. But last game out this team suffered a really embarrassing home loss to the Spurs. The team flat out did not show up to the arena, and Coach Lue made it known he wasn’t happy with the effort. We expect a strong effort here, and Paul George has a game under his belt to get back in the groove. Not to mention the Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Sacramento. |
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12-19-21 | Lakers v. Bulls -6 | Top | 110-115 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
The Bulls are as rested as any team in the NBA at this point in the season as their last game was over a week ago. Both teams are still having Covid issues, but the Lakers will also be without AD, who is now out for a month at least. And Chicago is getting some players back in the mix for tonight. The Lakers roster is thin anyways, and chemistry is a major issue here. The Bulls will be excited to get back on the court, and that should be reflected in the final score. |
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12-18-21 | Cavs -2.5 v. Bucks | Top | 119-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
Cleveland has covered in three straight games. And it looks like they have another juicy line here for Saturday. They are well rested, while the Bucks are coming in on a B2B. The Bucks are likely to be shorthanded again tonight, while the Cavs are relatively healthy. Not only did the Bucks play last night, but they went to OT where they lost in New Orleans. This is just a bad spot for the home team and we think Cleveland will keep the momentum going tonight. |
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12-16-21 | 76ers +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 105-114 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
Philly hasn’t been playing great basketball lately, and they are on a back-to-back, but this is a great chance for a win for them and they are the kind of team that can take advantage. The Nets have seven players out for Covid protocols right now and they had to sign someone off the streets to get to the league minimum of eight players to play this game. The situation is so dire and we doubt we will see Durant play super heavy minutes here. So the Sixers have a great chance for a pretty easy win, and we had them laying five points here in our handicapping. They have lost three of four so a win is important. The Nets are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games, and we don’t expect things to go well for them tonight with this very limited roster. |
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12-15-21 | Lakers v. Mavs UNDER 213.5 | Top | 107-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
We have been taking a lot of Dallas unders lately but not even enough. That’s because the Mavs have hit seven straight unders. And the Lakers have hit four straight. So the trends are pointing in the right direction. The Lakers have been playing very good defense lately and their offense has been inconsistent. Dallas had been better defensively and worse offensively. We think this total should have been in the 210s, so the value is here. Also, both squads have important players on the injury list, so don’t wait for this bet because the line could plummet down. |
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12-13-21 | Suns -3 v. Clippers | Top | 95-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Both teams have key players that may or may not miss this game. But the Suns have been playing amazing team basketball all season and they are better built to weather the storm of injuries than the Clippers, a team still very much trying to figure things out. LA has been playing better recently, but they don’t seem to be a match for the Suns, and this spread is more than fair for the visitors. And, also, even though Pat Bev doesn’t play for the Clippers any more, Chris Paul will be motivated against his old team because of history and also that Pat Bev shove in the back in the postseason last year. |
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12-12-21 | Nets v. Pistons +7.5 | Top | 116-104 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
The Nets have had trouble here in recent meetings as they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five in Detroit. Harden for the Nets will be out for rest, and that tells us that the Nets aren’t taking this game too seriously. Brooklyn is 3-8 ATS in this spread range they see themselves in tonight, and they are just 2-4 ATS on the road against sub-.500 teams. That shows us that this team loses focus in situations like this. Detroit is a bad team but they play hard and they have a habit of covering as a decent sized underdog. We expect a close game here tonight. |
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12-10-21 | Lakers -4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
It would seem that many things would point to a solid bet on OKC here. They are one of the best ATS teams in the NBA, and the Lakers are one of the worst. OKC is coming off two wins, and the Lakers are coming in on a back-to-back on the road after losing last night in Memphis. The Thunder have won both games against the Lakers this season. But it’s that last point in why we like the road team so much tonight. This is a game we have had circled for awhile, and the line certainly set up nicely for us. This is a double revenge scenario for the Lakers, who have been playing much better overall since they lost those two games to OKC. A lot of times teams forget about random games from months ago, but we doubt the Lakers forgot about those two losses. Those are brought up all the time by fans and media in criticisms of the Lakers. LA played a stinker last night in Memphis. They lost by double digits. We get the feeling they were looking ahead at this double revenge spot. And OKC has won two straight after a long losing streak and we don’t see them giving top effort tonight. Lakers by 7+! |
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12-09-21 | Lakers v. Grizzlies OVER 222.5 | Top | 95-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
These are two Top 8 offensive teams in the NBA this season. We think both teams will get their points. It doesn’t take a lot of energy to score, but it does to play defense, and the Grizzlies are coming in on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights. We expect the Lakers to be able to put up a big number on offense here as they have been playing well lately, and we have no doubt the Grizzlies can add the rest to get this one over the number. |
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12-08-21 | Bulls v. Cavs -2.5 | Top | 92-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
The Cavs are a team we targeted early in the season as a serious ATS threat, and they have been just that, with an 18-7 ATS mark that is one of the best in the NBA. And this team can really keep going strong all season as they are not a popular team with bettors with no superstar players. But this team plays strong team basketball and lock-down defense, which is a great recipe for ATS success. This team certainly looks like a playoff team and a team on the rise. The Bulls are right behind the Cavs on the ATS leaderboards. But they will be missing some players tonight, and depth is already an issue with this team. DeRozan is out because of Covid protocols, and they are missing some role players as well. The Cavs have covered eight straight games, but they lost two in a row to the Jazz and Bucks. This is a great spot for them to get back on the winning track, and we see a comfortable win here. |
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12-04-21 | Spurs +8.5 v. Warriors | Top | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
We just think this is a huge letdown spot for the Warriors after they snapped the Suns winning streak last night. They played two straight against the Suns and also had a game against the Clippers, who are more of a rival than the Spurs, who aren’t really moving the needle from an excitement standpoint at the moment. But the Spurs have won three straight and covered in four of five games, and we see a competitive game here tonight. |
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12-03-21 | Clippers v. Lakers -1.5 | Top | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
We rarely take the Lakers for expert picks. They are normally shaded by the oddsmakers and they are normally one of the worst ATS teams in the NBA. But bettor confidence is down for them at the moment, and we had them laying five in this game tonight in our NBA handicapping. The Clippers just look lost lately. They were beaten soundly in their last two games – by the Kings and Pelicans, two of the worst teams in the NBA. The Lakers have been more competitive lately and they have won three out of four, and they will have their full complement of the Big 3 tonight. The Clippers have been playing very bad defense, and we see the Lakers cruising to an easy win here. |
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12-01-21 | Rockets v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This is a rapid revenge spot for the Thunder as these teams played Monday and the Rockets blew out OKC in Texas. Now we have a venue change where OKC is at home, and we think they are the better team despite the records by a considerable margin. At 13-7, OKC is one of the better ATS teams in the NBA. They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10, so they are playing above oddsmaker expectations. Houston is just not a good team and they don’t handle success well as they are 2-9 ATS after a SU win. The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine meetings in OKC. |
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11-27-21 | Suns v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 113-107 | Loss | -101 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
We think this is a great spot for the Nets, who have been playing as well as any team in the NBA lately. They are well rested here after having two nights off after a big win over Boston on Wednesday, while the Suns are on a back-to-back. They played a physical Knicks team last night. Phoenix has been playing extremely well overall lately, but they have had a very busy schedule this week and this road trip will start to wear on them. Brooklyn has had a lot of success in this series as they are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. And since these teams don’t see each other often, that trend stretched back for years. |
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11-26-21 | Celtics -3 v. Spurs | Top | 88-96 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
Boston had been playing very well recently until they ran into a hot Brooklyn team and had kind of a bad loss on Wednesday. We think that was just a hiccup and this is a great spot for them to bounce back and get on track. Boston has found their defense and they have probably been playing some of the best defense in the NBA throughout the last 10 or so games before the Brooklyn loss. We expect them to be focused here against a very beatable opponent, and this line is more than fair laying a small number on the road. Boston has bounced back well after a loss as they are 4-0 ATS after losing a game. |
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11-23-21 | Lakers v. Knicks UNDER 214 | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
The Lakers need any win they can get right now and they didn’t give themselves the best chance to get that win tonight with LeBron James getting suspended. He just came back into the lineup, and the Lakers really needed him. We think the Knicks will dominate this one. They are back to playing their brand of defense that we have gotten used to. Their last seven games have gone under as a result. Their offense hasn’t been dynamic enough to put up a big number here, but their defense has been good enough to contain the Lakers offense. |
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11-22-21 | Magic +13 v. Bucks | Top | 92-123 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
These teams played Saturday, same venue, and the Bucks won by only 9. Milwaukee is not in playoff form right now, but they keep getting lined by the oddsmakers like they are. The Bucks haven’t covered a spread in five games. They are 1-7 ATS at home. The Magic aren’t a very good team. But this is a revenge spot against a familiar opponent where they just played and kept the game within punching distance. We think there’s a great chance this game is even closer than the Saturday game. |
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11-21-21 | Lakers -7 v. Pistons | Top | 121-116 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
We think that this is a good spot for the Lakers to get back on track, on the road vs. a bad team. Going against the Lakers this season has been very profitable as they are bad ATS. But Detroit has been just about as bad. The difference is that the Lakers lines are shaded, while the Pistons lines have been generous. LeBron has had a game back to get his footing, and this team needs a big win bad. We think they get it tonight. |
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11-19-21 | Thunder +13 v. Bucks | Top | 89-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
The Bucks have been a poor ATS team to start the season, and especially recently. This team seems to be in a bit of a funk to start the season, and they are no where near championship form that we saw over the Summer. But they are being lined as such. The Thunder are becoming a good ATS underdog. They have cashed six of eight tickets. They are gelling well as a young team and playing solid team basketball. They are healthy here and should bring their A Game against the champs to keep this one within double digits. |
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11-17-21 | Lakers +9 v. Bucks | Top | 102-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
The Lakers have been bad, but we think this is too many points. The Bucks aren’t exactly in mid season form. They are 6-8 ATS on the season. They have covered only three of their last 10. The Lakers need a win badly, and we think they will play hard against the Bucks. They probably have to feel a bit disrespected also since this is their biggest line as an underdog in a while. Plus, knowing that LeBron is coming back soon might give this team a jolt. |
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11-16-21 | Warriors v. Nets -3 | Top | 117-99 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
Both teams are hot, but we think the Warriors record and recent results can be taken with a grain of salt. This team has had one of the easiest schedules in the NBA and it has been very home heavy as well. This is only their third road games outside of the state of California. They are facing their toughest opponent of the season, on the road, and we think this spread is short tonight. Might the Warriors be as good as their record indicates? Possibly. They certainly have some talent on the court. But we will have to see how they perform consistently on the road where things are a lot tougher in the NBA. We think there’s a great chance Brooklyn wins this one by 7+. |
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11-13-21 | Wolves v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 102-129 | Win | 100 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
Bad spot here for the road team against the surging Clippers. LA is well rested with Friday off, while the Timberwolves are coming in on a back-to-back after playing the Lakers on Friday in a game they probably wanted more than this one. This is the first back-to-back of the season for Minnesota, and it’s a game we don’t see going well for them. These teams have already played twice and the Clippers dominated both matchups. |
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10-29-21 | Magic v. Raptors UNDER 206.5 | Top | 109-110 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
It’s a bit scary in today’s day and age to go under on a total this low, but if any game had the chance to finish under 200, this is it. These are two of the worst offenses in the league. The Magic have finished under 100 in three of their five games this season. Toronto has done the same in two of their five games. The Magic should have a very tough time reaching the century mark tonight. The Raptors have been playing lights out defense to start the season. Only one of their opponents have scored more than 100 points, and every team they have played is better offensively than the Magic. In the last 10 meetings, Orlando has toped 102 points only once, and they finished under 100 in seven of those matchups. We see them having a tough time reaching 100 tonight, and Toronto doesn’t have a dynamic enough offense to put up a big point total here. |
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10-22-21 | Raptors v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 115-83 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
Spoiler alert! We will be betting Boston a lot this season. This team has been one of the most dependable betting teams in the NBA for many years before taking a step back last season in what was a very strange season for them. But they reshuffled the administration decks and we expect a much stronger effort from them this season. Toronto really looked bad in their first game and they managed only 83 points against Washington. They face a much stronger defense tonight. |
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10-21-21 | Clippers v. Warriors -3 | Top | 113-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
The Warriors were very impressive on Opening Night as they beat the Lakers handily on the road, and now they face the other NBA title contender from the city of Los Angeles, and this time in their home opener. The Clippers have had their number lately, but we expect this one to go the other way. Kawhi Leonard is out, of course, until March at the earliest. So they will have to make due without him, and it might take some time for this team to get on the same page. Their depth will take a hit tonight as Batum and Ibaka are out tonight, as well as some role players. This game is a divisional and regional rivalry, and the crowd should be pumped tonight. We just see the Warriors winning this one comfortably as we see them being really good this year and they have a more stable team right now while LAC is a work in progress with rotations and roster and such. |
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07-20-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #511 Phoenix Suns over Milwaukee Bucks (9:05p.m., Tuesday, July 19 ABC) Just do not believe Phoenix will go this entire series without winning (or at least covering) one road game. Phoenix could not stop Milwaukee at all during the second and third quarters on Saturday and still had the ball with a chance to win it late in that game. Phoenix is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog. Milwaukee is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games played on Tuesday. Despite losing the last three games, the Sunday are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games between Phoenix and Milwaukee. |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -3.5 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -109 | 50 h 8 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #510 Phoenix Suns over Milwaukee Bucks (9:10p.m., Saturday, July 17 ABC) Homecourt has been the play in all 4 games thus far and look for that to continue on Saturday night in the desert. Role players tend to play better at home and expect the Suns to bounce back in a big way on Saturday. Phoenix gave away the game on Wednesday and I see them jumping out early and holding the lead tonight. Milwaukee is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. Phoenix is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against Milwaukee. |
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07-14-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 220.5 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #508 Under in Phoenix @ Milwaukee (9p.m., Wednesday, July 14 ABC) All three games have been blowouts and that does not bode well for the over to hit. Surprised this total is in the 220s and thus we will play the under on Wednesday. The Bucks have played under the posted total in 7 over their last 11 home games (1 push). The Suns have gone under the posted total in 4 of their last 5 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. |
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07-11-21 | Suns +4 v. Bucks | Top | 100-120 | Loss | -103 | 53 h 57 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #505 Phoenix Suns over Milwaukee Bucks (8:05p.m., Sunday, July 11 ABC) We have used the Suns in both games thus far and won easily. Things will be different in Milwaukee, but I just do not feel the Bucks should be favored by this many points. Milwaukee is still struggling from the arc, and you just cannot win games in this day and age without strong three-point shooting. Phoenix is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Suns are also 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games against the Bucks. |
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07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #504 Phoenix Suns over Milwaukee Bucks (9:05p.m., Thursday, July 8 ESPN) The Suns dominated Game 1 of the NBA Finals and one never got the impression in that game that Milwaukee was going to cover the spread let alone win the game. The Bucks just have not been shooting it well from the arc on a consistent basis and for them to beat Phoenix they must make shots from the three-point line. Milwaukee is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against Phoenix in the Valley of the Sun. Phoenix is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 57 h 10 m | Show |
This is a strange NBA Finals for sure. Milwaukee belongs here, but not sure about the Suns. Phoenix was a team that we thought would flame out in the postseason after a brilliant regular season. They were lacking playoff experience. Teams need to take their lumps with some postseason heartbreak to eventually get to this point. But here we are. The Suns were benefited by a bunch of injuries to key players in the Western Conference Playoffs. They had one of the easier paths to the championship we can remember. But they did earn their postseason experience. They have gotten here by being the healthiest team in the playoffs. They gained a lot of confidence in the postseason, and we think that will be on display here. |
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07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
The last game was high scoring and the Bucks did what they wanted offensively. But if Atlanta puts together another performance like that on the defensive end, they will be going home after this game. This is an underrated defensive team, and we think they step up and put it all on the line here tonight. Most of the games in this series have gone well under the posted number, and we think both teams will lock down on the defensive end as this is the biggest game of the series to date for both teams. |
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07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -2.5 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
We have some major injuries on both sides here but the Bucks have the more complete roster, and the more experienced one. We think they will take the Next Man Up strategy and run with it here to a comfortable win. Even if Young plays for the Hawks, we just don’t see him being effective as he will be rushed back too soon. We have seen it time and time again where they rush a player back and he hinders the team more than he helps. Regardless, we think the Bucks will circle the wagons here and take the win and move one step closer to the Finals. |
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06-30-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 215 | Top | 130-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
The Clippers got hot in Game 5 and they were able to score 116. We don’t see that happening again tonight, and we think this will be a low scoring game with both teams barely getting over the century mark. These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA. This is a must win for both teams, and we think they will dig in defensively. The oddsmakers have adjusted the total upwards from Game 5, but we think they should have gone the other way. We will take advantage of their error tonight. |
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06-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 214.5 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
Game 1 of this series went over, but the rest of the games have been fewer points than the last. We are pretty sure they hit the bottom of the barrel with Game 4 as 164 total points were scored. The oddsmakers adjusted a few points here, but it’s not enough. The Clippers are one of the most overworked teams in postseason history as they have played every other day all month and had some incredibly tough games along the way. They just looked exhausted in several spots in this series, especially Game 4 when they had tons of chances to take the lead but couldn’t. There’s a great chance both teams will shoot much better than they did in the last game, but we just don’t see either team breaking out on offense. This has possibly been one of the most physical series of the postseason, and the Suns are probably fatigued as well. These are two of the better defensive teams in the NBA, and we think that will be on display here again in Game 5. |
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 222 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Chris Paul should be back here and controlling the offense. He doesn’t move the ball up the court quickly and he sets up the offense more deliberately. This is the most important game of the season for both teams. If the Clippers lose, they are done. If Phoenix loses, then the Clippers are firmly back in this one. We expect both defenses to be at their best, and these are two of the best defensive teams in the league. The last game was very low scoring and went way under the total, but the oddsmakers didn’t adjust the number enough. The under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in LA. |
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06-20-21 | Clippers +4 v. Suns | Top | 114-120 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
The Suns had too much time off here. We think that, and the fact that Chris Paul is out for this game with Covid, has thwarted the Suns momentum. The Clippers have all the momentum here and are coming off one of the best second-half performances in playoff history. This team is really clicking on all cylinders, and they have shown they can play at an elite level even with Kawhi out of the lineup. Plus, they have some hope for Kawhi to be back at some point as he was seen at Game 6 against Utah without a brace and walking without a limp. That has led some to speculate that he could be back at some point in this series. These Clippers are more battle tested than the Suns in this postseason as Phoenix had a very easy path with the injured Lakers and the hobbled Nuggets. The Clippers had a tougher path and they have been playing better with each passing game after the first couple games in Dallas. They are getting contributions from throughout the roster, and Paul George has stepped up into the Top Dog role with Kawhi out. We just see the Suns having some problems getting into the flow of the game without Paul and with a week off from their last game. The Clippers won and covered in two of three meetings this season, and longer term they have covered in 14 of the last 19 meetings. We think they have a great chance to win outright here. |
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06-18-21 | Jazz -131 v. Clippers | Top | 119-131 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
Nothing ever comes easy for the Clippers. Almost all their playoff series go to seven games. They have never been to the conference finals in franchise history. In Game 5 Paul George and the role players stepped up while the Jazz went cold in the second half, and Utah was still in a position to win in the last couple minutes. Just don’t see the Clippers replicating that performance and we think the Jazz will pull away in this one in the fourth quarter. |
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06-17-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 220 | Top | 89-104 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Not one of the five games in this series went over the posted total. However, there has been a massive swing in the totals line in this series. This is the lowest total for the series so far. This one is almost 20 points less than the Game 1 total! We think now there is value on the over. Harden is back and he had one sloppy game under his belt but he should play better in this game. These are the Top 2 offensive teams in the NBA this season. This is going to be a hard-fought battle from both sides and we think both teams will get their points here against an overadjusted total. |
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06-16-21 | Clippers +7 v. Jazz | Top | 119-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
It was announced this AM that Kawhi Leonard is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. This is a major blow to the Clippers as they had seized all the momentum in this series and were looking in good shape to possibly steal a rare road win in Utah tonight. But we think they still have a chance. Paul George has broken out of his slump, and if he plays hero ball tonight, he can definitely have the Clips in a position to win this one. LA has its deepest team in franchise history, and they have experience playing without Kawhi. Just don’t see the Clips getting blown out here. |
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06-15-21 | Bucks -4 v. Nets | Top | 108-114 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
Great momentum for Milwaukee heading into Game 5 here with the series tied up. The Nets will likely be without two of their Big 3, and that is a problem with the way the Bucks have played the last two games of this series. They have all the momentum here, and the Nets have to figure out something quickly if they expect to win this one tonight. We don’t see it happening, and we think the Bucks go for the jugular this evening. Yes, the Nets have experience with playing without members of the Big 3 as they have done all season. And they have some role players that have the ability to step up. But we just don’t see where the points are going to come from for the Nets here tonight. They are really struggling offensively and have failed to reach the century mark in the last two games. The Bucks have the capability to score here, and we just don’t see the Nets being able to match that. Milwaukee has a strong betting history here in Brooklyn as they are 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings here. This Bucks team gets a mulligan from us for last season in the Bubble as they had some off-court issues going on, and a win tonight and putting the Nets on the verge of elimination would go a long way to put that failure in the rearview mirror. |
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06-14-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 104-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
We loved what we saw from the Clippers in Game 3, and we think that positive momentum will carry over here in Game 4. The Clippers have been in this situation before in a must-win game, and they have had success in this situation already in the playoffs. In Game 3 the stars for LA did what they were supposed to do, and the role players stepped up big time. Mitchell for Utah is banged up for this game. He might not be able to perform at his best. Utah benefitted from some great shooting in Games 1 and 2. They have cooled off, however, and that kind of shooting is unsustainable likely throughout the series. Also, the Clippers have been great in the favorite role as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite. Utah hasn’t done great as an underdog as they are 0-5 ATS in their last five in this situation. This has the look of a series that could possibly go the distance, and we see the Clippers evening things up tonight with a comfortable win. |
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06-13-21 | Suns -3 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
If Denver was going to make a big stand in this series, Game 3 was the place to do it. But they didn’t. At all. They got blown out. Again. Now the Nuggets are toast. And they know it. It’s virtually impossible to come back from a 3-0 deficit in the NBA Playoffs. And Phoenix is playing some of their best basketball of the season right now, and that’s saying a lot since they had a great regular season. But not only are they playing great, but they match up extremely well with Denver and this series looks like a total mismatch. Denver showed a lot of heart in their postseason comebacks last season, but this is a different season, and they just matched up with the wrong team in the second round. |
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06-11-21 | Suns +2 v. Nuggets | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Denver looks totally outclassed in this series. Phoenix looks like they have barely broken a sweat and they have rolled in the first two games. This one looks like it could very likely be a sweep. We were unsure of the Suns in this postseason because of lack of experience, but Chris Paul has been playing lights out and this team seems dialed in and is playing great team basketball. We think they go for the jugular tonight and essentially put this series out of reach with a win and a 3-0 lead. We had the Suns as 3-point favorites here, and there is great value in the much better team getting points here tonight. We see the Suns putting up a big offensive number tonight, and the Nuggets won’t be able to keep up. |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 98-123 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
The Nuggets were blown out in Game 1. But they have done a pretty good job of bouncing back from a bad loss in these playoffs and we expect a much more competitive game in Game 2. The Nuggets have covered in seven of the last 10 meetings in this arena and 14 of the last 20 meetings overall. We just don’t trust Phoenix that much in this postseason and think the floor will fall out from under them at some point. Denver will draw on their playoff experience tonight. |
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06-08-21 | Clippers +4 v. Jazz | Top | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
It’s rust vs. momentum here. We will go with momentum tonight. The Jazz didn’t play for almost a week while the Clippers closed out Dallas in Game 7 on Sunday. But LA didn’t look tired, and they are playing some excellent basketball. When this team is playing well, they could be the most talented team in the NBA, and we like them getting points tonight in what we feel is a coin flip game as to who wins. The long break has killed the Utah momentum while the Clippers have fresh momentum. We think the Clips will lock down on the defensive end here and that the Jazz may start the game a bit rusty. |
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06-07-21 | Bucks +1 v. Nets | Top | 86-125 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
We wanted to wait to see what went down in Game 1 before we made a move on the side in this series, and this one turned out exactly as we wanted to go with the Bucks in Game 2. Brooklyn won Game 1 and that gives the Bucks even more motivation here, and James Harden went down with an injury, which increases the Bucks chances to pull even in this series. The Bucks played a pretty lousy game in Game 1. This team doesn’t often have two bad games in a row. They are a more stable team than the Nets, who threw together a super team on the fly. We just don’t see the same chemistry for Brooklyn, and that is crucial in such a pivotal playoff game. We expect the Bucks to even this series up tonight with a much improved effort compared to Game 1. |
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06-04-21 | Clippers -2.5 v. Mavs | Top | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
The NBA playoffs is all about stars and although the Mavs have one of the best in the business, the Clippers have two difference-makers on the court tonight. The road team has won every game in this series, and we think that trend will continue tonight. There hasn’t been much intrigue in the postseason thus far and you know the NBA wants a Game 7, so the Clippers might get the benefit of the doubt on some calls tonight. Regardless, we think the Clippers will step up with their excellent defense and do everything they can to slow down Doncic and make the rest of the team beat them. |
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06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers -2 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
The Lakers were absolutely humiliated in their last game. With a proud team like LA, that isn’t going to cut it. We expect a spirited performance tonight from the home team. AD might be out here or seriously limited. But they still have LeBron. And they still have one of the best defenses in the NBA. We expect them to play D like their life depends on it tonight, and their playoff life basically does. They have shown they can win games on the defensive side, and we expect that to happen tonight. We just can’t get behind the Suns too much in this postseason because the lack of experience. |
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06-02-21 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 217.5 | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
We doubt Luka Doncic is going to be anywhere near 100 percent here. The whole Dallas offense goes through him. He is like Steph Curry in that his play makes his teammates better when he is on the court. Even though these teams had an extra day off, not sure if that is going to help much. But, regardless, the Clippers put on a defensive clinic in Game 4 and we expect to see more of the same tonight in what is up to this point the pivotal game in the series. Dallas will make some defensive adjustments as well and we don’t see either of these teams putting up big numbers on offense. The stars will probably do their jobs but we think the role players will fall short. And the extra day off will ramp up the defensive intensity. |
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05-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies +6 | Top | 120-113 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
We think the Grizzlies have a great chance to win this one and even the series up. It should at least be a close game. Memphis has nothing to lose and they are playing with house money right now. All the pressure is on Utah here. Last game the Jazz got off to a hot start and outscored the Grizzlies 34-22 in the first quarter. The Grizzlies pretty much played even with them the rest of the way after that slow start. Of course they won Game 1 and they haven’t embarrassed themselves at any point in this series. Even though they lost by 10 last time out, they have covered their last four at home after losing by double digits. They know this is their last best chance to stay in this series, and we expect to see a spirited effort tonight. Plus, the refs should dish out some home cooking, especially since there are a lack of games coming up as many of the series in the East have been lopsided. |
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05-30-21 | Nets -7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 141-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
Boston played great in Game 3. Tatum put the team on his back and scored 50 with a legendary effort. That’s doubtful to happen again, and the Nets should bounce back and comfortably win this one against an outmatched Boston squad. This Game 3 was typical of Boston all season as they will look like they are back on track and then fall on their faces. And it was typical of Brooklyn, a team that has been inconsistent. But we think that loss was a wake up call. And with the other top seeds in the East taking care of business quickly, there will be urgency for the Nets to make sure Boston doesn’t win another game and hang around as the competition will get much tougher in the coming rounds. |
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05-29-21 | Jazz -5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 121-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
Kudos to Memphis for winning Game 1. They caught Utah off guard and they got a great win. But Utah showed in Game 2 why they are the top seed as they dropped 141 points in a blowout. Sometimes good teams need a kick in the butt to get going, and it looks like that loss motivated Utah in a big way. That positive momentum should continue here. And Memphis would not even be a playoff team under the normal playoff format. This is a team on the way up but not there yet, while Utah is a true championship contender. And we think they get the job done again tonight. |
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05-28-21 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 220 | Top | 118-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Dallas has been playing great in this series and they have been shooting the lights out. But they have made a lot of lucky shots, and that is undeniable. They also have some players that have unsustainable shooting percentages in this series, especially from long range. The Clippers were one of the best defensive teams all season. Their season is on the line tonight and we expect them to lock down on defense and play with massive intensity. And the Dallas shooting can’t stay this hot forever. We expect a much different look on the scoreboard after the final buzzer than we saw in Game 2. |
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05-27-21 | Bucks -1.5 v. Heat | Top | 113-84 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
We were hyped on the Bucks entering the postseason but also kind of apprehensive because of the fact that they fell on their face last postseason. Was that the Bubble or is this team a postseason underperformer? Well, Game 2 gave us a lot of confidence, and we think there’s a great chance this series ends up as a sweep. This team has unfinished business, and they looked focused and determined thus far in this series and Miami is just outmatched. |
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05-23-21 | Lakers +3 v. Suns | Top | 90-99 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 7 m | Show |
For most of the later part of the season we have been planning to fade the Suns in the postseason. This team has all the look of a regular season wonder but a postseason failure. They don’t have a lot of postseason experience. Chris Paul has a career of postseason disappointments. This team needs some experience before they are a true title threat. Unfortunately, they drew the Lakers in the first round. The Lakers almost never have betting value because they are one of the most public teams in the NBA. There’s no doubt the Suns are scared here. The Lakers are healthy and streaking. We think this line is more than fair for Game 1 and we actually had the Lakers as a slight favorite, so we love the value here for Game 1. |
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05-22-21 | Mavs v. Clippers -5 | Top | 113-103 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
This is what the Clippers played the season for. All the load management, different rotations and team building was intended to be in a good place for the postseason. And we think the Clippers are in a very good place. This team didn’t care about regular season records. All they care about is winning a championship. And this team looks much better than the one we saw flame out of the playoffs last season. Paul George was having some mental issues last season in the bubble but he has been great this season, and this team is pretty much fully healthy here for Game 1. A healthy and motivated Clippers team is on a different level than this Mavs squad, and we think this line is short on Saturday. |
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05-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 117-112 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Home teams have been dominant in this play in tournament, and we expect that trend to continue on Friday in the final play in game. The postseason is when stars shine the brightest, and although Ja Morant is a rising star, the Warriors have two established stars, including one of the best to ever play the game. We have seen time and time again that Steph Curry elevates his game to a different level when things matter the most, and the stakes couldn’t be higher here. He also makes everyone around him better when he brings his A Game, and we expect to see his best tonight. The Grizzlies wouldn’t have made the postseason in a normal format. This team is on the rise for sure, but we think they are a season away from being a true threat. With Curry, the Warriors can beat any team in the postseason if he elevates his game. Golden State has been a great bet lately as they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games. They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against Memphis when playing in the Bay Area. The Warriors scored a double digit win in this same arena against the Grizzlies on May 16. We think there is a great chance they score a comfortable win tonight by 7+ points. |
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05-19-21 | Warriors +5 v. Lakers | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 48 h 4 m | Show |
This game features two of the most clutch players of all time facing off in an unprecedented game of two recent championship teams playing for the right to make the playoffs. But Steph Curry has been in fine form for a long time, while LeBron has been oft injured and is just getting back into rhythm for the postseason. This team just doesn’t have a lot of chemistry right now. They won five straight to end the regular season, but they covered only two of those games and they faces teams with questionable motivation while LA had all the motivation. But they will face an extremely motivated Golden State team tonight, and the Warriors are playing well and have covered six straight games. We had the Warriors as slight favorites here and we think it’s their game to lose. |
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05-18-21 | Wizards +2 v. Celtics | Top | 100-118 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
Just think this season is a wash for the Celtics. Jaylen Brown went down for the season. That seemed to take the air out of this Celtics team that looked off anyways. They have dealt with many injuries all season and never got to develop the necessary chemistry needed for a championship run. They lost five of six games to close out the season, and they didn’t reach the century mark on offense in three of those games. They are banged up heading into this game with key players nursing a variety of injuries. The Wizards got off to a slow start this season, but they have been playing as well as anyone in the NBA lately. They have been a covering machine as they have covered the majority of their games over the last month or so. They are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. They are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The last five meetings have all gone under the posted number. |
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05-16-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers -9 | Top | 116-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Maybe both teams want the Blazers to win here? The Clippers sure looked like they tanked their last game to avoid the Lakers potentially in the first round or closer down the road. Now the Blazers are in that position. They have a chance to knock LA into the play in tourney. Denver doesn’t have any incentive to win and let the Lakers into the top 6 seeds. We see Portland going all out here and the Nuggets focusing on their first-round opponent, which could possibly be these Blazers, so why would they want to give too much away? |
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05-14-21 | Nuggets v. Pistons +8.5 | Top | 104-91 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
Despite a 20-50 record, the Pistons are 35-33-2 against the spread. They get too many points on a regular basis. This team is building something good, and the players play hard and play until the final buzzer. Do they get blown out from time to time? Sure. There is a lot of developing talent on this team. But they get an A most nights for hustle, and this has the look of a team that wants to finish the season on a positive note. This team is 26-16-1 ATS when getting five or more points this season, so they are a pretty safe bet as a big underdog. Denver has been overrated by the oddsmakers as they are 1-4 ATS in their last five. This team is pretty secure in their postseason positioning and we just think they have their eyes towards the playoffs now and they aren’t going all out here in Detroit. The Pistons have covered in five of seven meetings. We expect a close game here, and a SU win by the home team wouldn’t be shocking. |
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05-13-21 | Clippers -8 v. Hornets | Top | 113-90 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
We were really impressed by the Clippers last win over Toronto. This has the look of a team that is getting healthy at the right time and wants to build some momentum heading into the playoffs. Ibaka is the only main player that will be out tonight. The Clippers have had a real light schedule down the stretch, so they should have plenty of energy here. And they have covered in four of the last five meetings. |
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05-11-21 | Magic v. Bucks -13 | Top | 102-114 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
The Magic have suffered two 30+-point losses in their last three games. This team is so wracked with injuries they are fielding a G League-level team right now. And this team stunk before all the injuries. Those big losses were to Minnesota and Boston, one team that stinks and one that is not playing well. The Bucks are in on a back-to-back, and they suffered one of their worst losses of the season last night in San Antonio. They lost by 20+ in what was obviously an off game. We like to back a good team after an embarrassing loss like that as they normally give a lot better effort in their next game. Even on a B2B they should have enough energy to beat this Magic team without breaking too much of a sweat. The Magic haven’t covered in the last six games in this series, and we think they run into a buzzsaw tonight against a Bucks team that will want to remove the bad taste their loss from last night left them. |
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05-10-21 | Bucks v. Spurs OVER 233.5 | Top | 125-146 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
The Bucks have been playing some ridiculously high scoring games lately. They have combined for 269 points or more in two straight games. Their offense is clicking very well and they are content to light up the scoreboard instead of bore down on defense. The Spurs are real close to missing the playoffs as they sit in the No. 10 spot in the West. They need a win here. They have not played well recently but we expect them to be competitive here in a must-win game. They should be able to score on the Bucks and we doubt this one will be a blowout so both teams should get their points. The over has cashed in this series for years as these teams don’t meet often, but the over is a perfect 6-0 in the last six meetings. We expect a barnburner tonight. |
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05-09-21 | Wolves v. Magic +8 | Top | 128-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
As bad as the Magic have been playing, the Wolves are not in a position of power to be laying more than seven on the road to anyone. This is the biggest favorite they have been all season. The Wolves have lost three straight and didn’t cover in any of those games. The Magic have won and covered in three of their last six games, so they aren’t playing that bad right now overall. There is more talent on the Wolves side for sure, but we think this is an inflated number. |
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05-07-21 | Celtics -4 v. Bulls | Top | 99-121 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Boston is rested. They had the night off Thursday, and before their 36-point domination of Orlando last time out, they had two days off before that. The Bulls are coming in on a back-to-back. They won last night but had dropped four straight before that, so they aren’t in great form right now. The Bulls are the more desperate team. They are four games out of the last spot in the playoff play-in, with six games left. They are done. And they have been playing like it. They are here in the spot out of the playoffs because they aren’t a very good team. Boston has a lot to play for as they are on the bubble of the play in tourney, but they are currently No. 6. They control their own destiny to avoid the play in. And most importantly, they have been a great bet in this series as they are 4-1 ATS in their last five in Chicago and 12-3 ATS overall in the last 15 meetings. The Bulls got a rare win in this series last month, but we don’t see it happening twice in a row. |
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05-06-21 | Lakers v. Clippers -8 | Top | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
The Clippers have been one of the best ATS teams in the league all season and the Lakers one of the worst. The Clippers haven’t been covering lately but they are as healthy right now as they have been in a long time, and they face their biggest rival tonight. The Lakers don’t really think of this as a big rivalry for them, but the Clippers do. That’s why the Clippers are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Clippers didn’t play well last time out vs. the Raptors but still won. We think they were looking ahead to this game a bit. We expect their best performance tonight in what should have a playoff atmosphere. But the Clippers are healthy and the Lakers aren’t, with LeBron and several key players out tonight. |
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05-04-21 | Raptors v. Clippers -9.5 | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
The Clippers are the healthiest they have been in awhile, and their two stars are expected to play tonight. They have lost three straight and they are desperate for a win right now. They have had two nights off to regroup and should be ready here. As of right now they are set to play the Lakers in the first round. They won’t say it, but they don’t want it. They will probably do their best to move up in the seeding, and they don’t have many chances to do it left. We think they give their best effort tonight and win this one by double digits. |
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04-27-21 | Thunder v. Celtics -11 | Top | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Boston is coming in off two straight losses, so this is a “get right” game for them. And they are playing just the right team to get back on track against. The Thunder have a rag tag group of players competing right now. They have been just god awful on defense as they have given up 119 or more in four straight games. We think Boston will put up a monster number on offense here and they should have no problem covering this big number. The Celtics are resting a couple key players, but that is why we are getting a value number here on Tuesday. |
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04-26-21 | Jazz -9.5 v. Wolves | Top | 104-105 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
When you are one of the best teams in the NBA and you lose to the Wolves, you know you had an off game. That’s what happened to the Jazz on Saturday as they played very poorly at home and lost straight up. Now this is a quick turnaround rematch, and we just don’t see anything other than the Jazz brining their A Game. Utah is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings here in Minnesota. This is a team that can beat bad opponents by double digits without breaking a sweat. We think that loss on Saturday is a wake up call for Utah and they will put their best foot forward tonight. |
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04-20-21 | Wolves v. Kings -3 | Top | 134-120 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
The Kings have not been good lately, but they are still better than the Wolves. They are coming off a big win at Dallas, and this is a chance to start a rare winning streak. We think they will be up to the task. The Kings have been a disappointment, but they have had a much better season than Minnesota. The Wolves don’t play well on the road against bad teams as they are 0-4 ATS in their last four in this situation. This is also a revenge game as the Kings lost in Minnesota earlier this month. |
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04-19-21 | Bulls v. Celtics -6 | Top | 102-96 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Boston has some players questionable for Monday and this line could move if some of those players were given the green light. We won’t be scared off by the line movement in that event. We think Boston has a great chance to win this one by double digits. This team has never been about individual players. They play great team basketball, and when they are playing well the system works even with some parts missing. The Bulls will be without LaVine again, and that hurts as he is one of their best players and this team isn’t deep. They snapped a five-game losing streak last time out with a win over Cleveland, but that’s nothing to write home about. That was their only cover in the last six games. Boston is playing their best basketball of the season and they have done it against a really difficult schedule. We don’t think they will overlook this opponent since every win matters after their slow start. When this team is playing well they have been one of the best ATS teams the past several years. This boils down to great coaching. Boston is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings and we expect them to get a very easy win tonight. And don’t forget, even though the Bulls were off last night, this is their third game in four nights as they had a B2B in that Cleveland game. |
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04-16-21 | Blazers v. Spurs OVER 234 | Top | 107-106 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
We think the sky is the limit for this total. This should be a close game and both teams will get their points. Overtime is always a possibility, but we don’t think we will need the extra five minutes to cash this ticket. The Blazers average about 115 points per game. We aren’t worried about their offense. They are healthy now and they have scored 115 or more in four of their last six games. Most of those point totals were against better defensive teams than the Spurs. The over is 4-0 in the Blazers last four as a road favorite and 5-0 against a team with a losing record. So the question is if the Spurs can score enough to get this one over the total. We think so. They have scored 119 or more in three of their last four games. Their offense is playing very well at the moment. They have done this against some pretty solid defensive teams, and on the road no less. They have gone over in four straight and seven out of eight. Portland has the No. 26 defense for points allowed. They allow 115 a game. We think the Spurs can score more than that tonight. Betting the over when these teams meet has been one of the strongest bets in the NBA for years. The over is 36-17 in the last 53 meetings. It is also 7-1 in the last eight meetings in San Antonio. We expect a barnburner tonight! |
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04-15-21 | Celtics -6 v. Lakers | Top | 121-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
The Lakers are a bit of “fool’s gold” here as they have won four of seven but those wins were over Charlotte, Toronto, Sacramento and Brooklyn. Only one real quality win among those teams, and Brooklyn is a “work in progress” right now as this team is tinkering with a lot trying to have chemistry and stability once the playoffs start next month. And even the Lakers called that game the best win of the season. The Celtics have won six of seven. They DO have some quality wins there as they won in Portland and Denver in their last two. They also beat the Knicks, who are playing well now. This team is pretty healthy and has shrugged of their slow start. And this team has been one of the safest bets in the NBA the last few years as they normally have a great ATS mark. We think they hold the Lakers to a real low point total tonight. |
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04-14-21 | Magic +9.5 v. Bulls | Top | 115-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
The Magic have been playing like dog poop lately, to be blunt. But there’s no way the Bulls should be laying this many points to any team. This is the most points the Bulls have given up all season. They have lost three straight games. They are back at home after a long road trip and have been on the road mostly for several weeks. This first game home is often tricky for the home team as the players have personal business to attend to and their minds might not be in the game. Orlando is 4-1 ATS in their last five as a road underdog. They are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning percentage less than .400. |
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04-13-21 | Clippers v. Pacers +3 | Top | 126-115 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
The Pacers have won three straight. They are playing really good basketball right now and shooting the ball extremely well. They have shot the ball better than 50% in two of their last three games. The Pacers got off to a slow start to the season and they are in No. 9 place in the Eastern Conference playoff race. They need to keep winning to avoid dropping out of play-in contention. The Clippers have been playing well. This seems like the type of game where they may slip up, however. They have been at home for a long time. This is their first road game since March 25. They are without three key players tonight in Kawhi, Pat Bev and Ibaka. The public is all over the Clippers in this one and we think the bookies have set the number to make LA appealing. We expect a high scoring game here and we think the Pacers have a great chance to win outright. |
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04-12-21 | Lakers v. Knicks OVER 205.5 | Top | 96-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
The Lakers seemed hopeless once LeBron and AD went down. But things are looking up for this team. The role players on this squad have stepped up in a big way. They had one of their most impressive wins of the season last time out as they blew out Brooklyn on the road. They scored 126 in that win. Their offense has been coming together, and there is reason for optimism as they have a timetable now for the return of their two stars. After a big string of unders, they have gone over in three straight games. We think this total is too low tonight. The Knicks have the No. 1 defense in the NBA. They, however, played a very hard-fought, back-and-forth game on Sunday against the Raptors. Just not sure if they are going to have the energy to play shut down defense tonight. The Knicks are also trending to the over with three of their last five going over the posted number. The over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. We think this will be a close game, like the oddsmakers, and we expect both teams to get their points here. And overtime is always a possibility with such a small spread. We don’t think we will need the extra five minutes to cash this ticket, however. |
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04-09-21 | Rockets +13.5 v. Clippers | Top | 109-126 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
This is a bad spot for the Clippers, who are coming in on a back-to-back after facing the Suns on Thursday. They have faced a who’s who of teams that will be in the WCF in recent games: Phoenix, Portland, LA Lakers and Denver. Throw in a recent game against potential Finals opponent Milwaukee, and we don’t think this Houston team is going to move the meter for the Clippers. They probably won’t have the energy to give 100% here even if they were inclined to, which we don’t think they will be. And who know who will take the court for LA as they often have a scratch in back-to-backs. Houston was off on Thursday. They have been playing much better lately and are coming off a win over Dallas and an easy cover against Phoenix. They are 3-0 ATS when getting this range of points as an underdog and 5-0 ATS on the road against above-.500 opponents. |
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