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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-07-21 | Wizards v. Magic UNDER 222.5 | Top | 131-116 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
The Wizards are trending to the under with all four of their recent games going under the posted total. They will probably be without NBA scoring leader Bradley Beal tonight. They have some other key players questionable as well. They have scored more than 106 points only once in their last six games. They have scored 91 or fewer in two of their last three games. The Magic have a ton of injury issues, too, and we don’t know where the offense will come from with this team, which is No. 29 in the NBA for scoring offense. We don’t see either team doing anything special on offense. The under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Orlando. |
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04-05-21 | Wizards v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 101-103 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
We have been patiently waiting for the Raptors to turn the corner. This team has a solid roster and there is no reason this team shouldn’t be making a playoff push. Well, with that game last time out, the dominating win over Golden State that was one of the biggest wins of the season in the NBA, maybe now is the time they start to turn it on. Sometimes all you are missing in the NBA is confidence, and they should have plenty of that after dismantling the Warriors. The Wizards are going nowhere fast, and who know which games they choose to give max effort in. We get the feeling Toronto will be the more motivated team tonight. |
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04-03-21 | Magic v. Jazz UNDER 217.5 | Top | 91-137 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Orlando’s offense isn’t anything to write home about. They really struggle to put points on the board on a nightly basis. But they have been playing very good defense lately and they give a lot of effort on that end. Both teams have been trending to the under lately, and we think this game can go one of two ways. If Orlando is competitive here it will be on the strength of their defense. If it’s a blowout, the No. 5-ranked Jazz defense will probably keep the Magic under the century mark, which has been a pretty common occurrence for this team. Either scenario puts us in a good spot to cash this ticket. |
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04-02-21 | Hornets v. Pacers UNDER 219.5 | Top | 114-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Both teams scored under 90 points in their last outing. We are willing to bet that the poor shooting and lethargic play carries over into this matchup. The Hornets have been an ATS covering machine lately, and that has been on the strength of their defense as their offense has been inconsistent. Seven of their last eight games have gone under the posted total, and the under is 26-7 in the last 33 meetings in Indiana. We think this is another total that has been posted too high and we had this one penciled in at 214. |
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04-01-21 | Magic +9 v. Pelicans | Top | 115-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
The Magic are playing well. They are coming off a confidence-boosting win in LA against the Clippers and they have covered in seven of their last nine games overall. This young team plays solid defense and lately they have been able to put together enough offense to stay competitive. The Pelicans have Zion and Ball on the injury report tonight. If one or both can’t go that will help us a lot. We think Orlando can keep this close regardless of the status of those players. The Pelicans have not been good as a big favorite this season. They are 1-5 ATS when laying 7.5 or more points. They could be in a letdown spot after one of their biggest wins of the season against Boston. They are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning percentage below .400. Orlando has also covered in all of the last four meetings. We expect a close game here. |
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03-26-21 | Pacers v. Mavs -4 | Top | 109-94 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
This Dallas team seems to be rounding into form after a real slow start to the season. They have had a real relaxed schedule lately so they should have a lot of energy for this game. They have wins over the Blazers, Clippers and Nuggets in their last six games, so they are battle tested. Indiana has covered only three of their last 10 games and this team just isn’t in top form right now while Dallas is playing their best ball of the season. Not to mention they have covered in six of the last eight meetings. |
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03-22-21 | Celtics +2.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 126-132 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
We had the Celtics as a slight favorite in this game so we think there is good value. Boston had a team meeting the other day and then came out and dominated an Orlando team that had been playing well on Sunday. They played earlier in the day, so the back-to-back here was not so brutal. Memphis had the day off Sunday but they are playing their third game in four nights just like the Celtics, so we think the rest factor is pretty even here. Memphis has lost four of their last six games, so they aren’t in top form right now. The game yesterday against Orlando for Boston might be a turning point as this team seems determined to save their season after a slow start. And you have to remember this is one of the best coached teams in the NBA and they have been one of the best betting clubs in the NBA for years. We could see them going on a run after a real slow start to the second half of the season. Boston has a strong history in this series as they are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. |
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03-21-21 | Lakers v. Suns UNDER 215 | Top | 94-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
These are two Top 5 defensive teams. The Lakers looked awful on offense once LeBron left the court on Saturday. They will have to figure something out on the offense. We don’t see it happening tonight, however, and we think they will struggle to score and will have to rely on their defense to stay competitive here. We either think this will be a Suns blowout or a close, low-scoring game, and we think both scenarios bode well for the under. The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings, and we expect a similar result here. |
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03-20-21 | Hawks +4 v. Lakers | Top | 99-94 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
The Hawks have been playing great basketball lately and they have won seven straight games even though they don’t get the press as more popular teams around the league. They have really stepped things up on the defensive end and they are playing as a cohesive unit during this stretch. Sometimes coaching can make all the difference. The Lakers have been playing well also, but they are always overvalued by the oddsmakers and we think that is the difference here as the value lies with the visitors. We expect a low-scoring, close game here. |
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03-19-21 | Mavs -3 v. Blazers | Top | 119-125 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
Dallas is quietly starting to play really well and they have won six of their last eight games overall. They are doing this pretty quietly as other stories dominate the news wire. But they are coming off a very impressive win over the Clippers on Wednesday. They also have wins over Denver and Brooklyn during this stretch, so they haven’t been playing only scrubs. Portland is coming off their rematch with New Orleans and will be playing their fifth game in seven nights. We think this is a real bad spot for Portland. |
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03-16-21 | Jazz v. Celtics +4.5 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Wow we have come a long way to see the Celtics posted as decent sized underdogs at home. We will take it. The Celtics are finally getting healthy and cohesive. They have won five of their last six games. Utah has lost three of four and they aren’t playing like the dominant force that we saw earlier in the season. That’s not a knock on Utah – it’s tough to keep that level of performance up all season long and even the best teams go through down points of the season. We had this line handicapped at PK so we think there is real nice value in the home dog as we think this game is a coin flip as to who wins SU. |
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03-12-21 | 76ers v. Wizards +4.5 | Top | 127-101 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
We think this is a great spot for the home team getting points tonight. The Sixers are a very average road team at 9-9 on the season. They are missing two of their top players tonight. The Wizards got off to a real slow start to the season and they lost confidence from a lot of bettors. But they have turned a corner and have been playing much better of late. They have won six of their last 10 despite a slip up last night. They normally play well in this series and have covered in five of the last six meetings. We had the Sixers laying a single point here so nice value tonight. |
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03-11-21 | Knicks v. Bucks UNDER 223 | Top | 101-134 | Loss | -111 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
The Knicks are an under machine this season at 23-14 on the year so far. This team has the No. 1 defense in the NBA and they bring it on that end of the court on a nightly basis. They are a true old-school defensive team as the offense leaves a lot to be desired and is one of the least productive in the league. This team regularly goes under the century mark on offense, which is very rare in today’s NBA. Luckily for us, the Knicks went on a bit of an over streak before the break. But they are rested and they have probably been looking forward to this game against one of the best teams in the East and this matchup will be a measuring stick to where they are at right now as a team. We expect them to lock down on the defensive end and for this to be a close game. Just don’t see the Knicks engaging in a shootout tonight. And there’s a good chance that after the break that these teams could start the game rusty on offense, especially New York. The under is 7-1 in the Knicks last eight road games. |
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03-10-21 | Wizards v. Grizzlies -3 | Top | 112-127 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Both of these teams can score. Only one can play defense, though, and that’s Memphis. And we believe that will be the difference in the game as we expect a rested Grizzlies team to make some stops down the stretch. Both teams are rested and that should help the defense instead of the offense, which could be out of rhythm early and rusty. Memphis is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. We think they are the better team at this point and expect the defense to step up and lead them to the win tonight. |
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03-04-21 | Thunder v. Spurs UNDER 220 | Top | 107-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
The Thunder have scored 102 or fewer points in four of their last five games. They went under the Century Mark in three of those games, and they are coming in on a back-to-back after scoring only 78 in a loss to Dallas last night. This looks like a team that wants the All-Star Break to start and we just don’t see them putting up a big point total tonight against a Spurs defense that is No. 11 leaguewide for points allowed. The Thunder have been playing solid defense lately, too, so it’s unlikely they will let the Spurs run crazy on offense tonight. Both meetings this season have gone well under the posted total. These teams played last Wednesday and the total was only 201. We either think this will be a blowout with the Spurs crushing a lifeless OKC offense or that the Thunder will step up on defense and it will be a low-scoring slugfest like the last outing was. Either scenario bodes well for the under, in our opinion. |
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03-03-21 | Hawks v. Magic +3.5 | Top | 115-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
The Hawks have not been good on the favorite role as they are 0-4 in their last four as a lined favorite. They failed to top the Century Mark in their last two games against Miami, and now they face another good defensive team in the Magic tonight. Orlando has lost four straight after a three-game winning streak. This team is not as bad as they have looked at times this season, and this is a very winnable game for them as their problem is scoring and the Hawks aren’t in very good form offensively right now and we think they are ripe for an upset here. |
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03-02-21 | Suns v. Lakers -1.5 | Top | 114-104 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
It’s very rare we take the Lakers. We mostly look to fade them as they are often overvalued by the oddsmakers and bet blindly by public bettors. But this line tonight seems fair. The Lakers played well last two games in dominant wins. They have Schroeder back, and he is a big difference maker on this team. This squad went through a rough patch recently, and they want to keep this winning streak intact and they should be more focused. Seeding will be important in the West playoffs this season. The Lakers are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. |
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02-28-21 | Wizards v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 110-111 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
We are going against the Wizards here just because they have had a brutal schedule lately. They are on a back to back while the Celtics are rested. They are playing their third game in four nights. They are coming off a tough road trip where they had success. But they also had a brutal back-to-back last week on Monday and Tuesday with the Lakers and Clippers. They got blown out of the building by LAC on the second end of that back-to-back, and we could see the same thing happening here tonight. The Wizards are 3-12-1 in the last 16 meetings here in Boston. Maybe the Celtics turned the corner in this season as they gutted out a win last time vs. Indiana that could be a springboard for this team to start playing better consistently. We just don’t see the Wizards having much gas in the tank for this one, and the Celtics should be extra motivated as they are coming off a bad recent losing streak. |
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02-27-21 | Wolves v. Wizards -4 | Top | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
The Timberwolves are a dumpster fire right now and they haven’t covered in six straight games despite some very generous odds from the linesmakers. These teams both got off to a slow start. The Wizards are a developing team that took awhile to gel, but they seem to have gotten there and lately have been playing playoff-worthy basketball though they have a lot of ground to make up, But they have covered in six of their last seven games. They are coming off a road trip that included wins over the Lakers, Nuggets and Blazers. Impressive. We had this line handicapped at 8, so there is really great value here as the home team is being lined according to record and not recent form. Not to mention the Wizards are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Washington and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings overall. |
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02-26-21 | Clippers -6 v. Grizzlies | Top | 119-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
We like to go with a good team that was embarrassed in their last game. We also like to go with the losing team when teams go against each other back-to-back this season. We have both scenarios tonight as these teams rematch from last night, where Memphis scored a near 30-point win. This Clippers team sometimes plays a bad game. This is the team that has looked like one of the best in the NBA many nights but yet lost to the Mavs earlier in the season by almost 50. It’s just one game. And the Clippers have shown the ability to bounce back after a bad game. This team has great depth and they are normally competitive when their stars are out or resting. The Grizzlies don’t have the same kind of depth. There are no indications that the Clippers won’t suit up their A Team tonight, and they should bring their A Game. The Clippers have been great in back-to-backs and are 5-0 ATS in their last five games playing on zero rest. Great chance for a dominating effort by the road team tonight. |
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02-25-21 | Wizards +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 112-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
The Wizards are playing real well lately. They are coming off a blowout loss to the Clippers. But LA is the second best team in the NBA right now and they were on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights and they were competitive to a point then just ran out of gas. But they are rested with Wednesday off and we think they will get back to the stellar basketball they have been playing, winning five of their last six, with some impressive wins on that resume. It has taken some time for this team to come together, but they are playing to their potential lately and we see them being competitive here in this road matchup as well. |
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02-22-21 | Wizards +7 v. Lakers | Top | 127-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
The Wizards are playing well right now. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games. They won all those games SU, including matchups against Denver, Portland and Boston. No pushovers there. This is probably a game they have been looking forward to as almost all teams have their visit to the defending champs circled. The Lakers haven’t been playing up to oddsmaker expectations as they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. They aren’t in top form with losses in three of their last four. We think the Wizards come to play tonight and expect a close game. |
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02-18-21 | Nets v. Lakers OVER 232 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
The Lakers have one of the best defenses in the league, but they are missing Anthony Davis and his defensive prowess. The over has cashed in five of their last six games. We just don’t see how they slow down the Nets tonight as Brooklyn has averaged 130+ in their last three games. They are just playing very well offensively right now. They are 22-8 to the over this season, and the oddsmakers can’t seem to set a total high enough for their games. We see both teams getting their points, and overtime is a real possibility in what should be a close game. |
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02-17-21 | Rockets v. 76ers -10.5 | Top | 113-118 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
The Rockets haven’t covered in six games. This team is dealing with a bunch of injuries, and they don’t have any firepower tonight. The Sixers are coming off a game where they were beaten pretty good by the Jazz, and we think they will come out with their A Game here tonight. This one looks like a blowout. The Rockets have failed to cover in all but one game in the last eight meetings. We see Houston getting a real low team point total in this game, and we think this should be a very easy win for the home team. |
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02-16-21 | Lakers -6.5 v. Wolves | Top | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
If you follow our picks, you know we love to bet against the Lakers and rarely take them. But we think there is some value tonight. LA is coming off a bad loss to the Nuggets, one of their worst games of the year. They don’t want a repeat performance. A loss here would be bad as the Wolves are one of the worst teams in the West. LeBron will likely play here even though Davis is out for the foreseeable future. But this team has a lot more depth this season, and we think they will play a great team game tonight against an overmatched opponent. |
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02-15-21 | Rockets v. Wizards UNDER 228.5 | Top | 119-131 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
Both teams are trending to the under and the oddsmakers have been too slow to adjust. The Wizards have gone under in 6 of 7 and the Rockets have gone under in 5 of 7. During that stretch, the Rockets have scored 101 or fewer in five games. The Wizards have scored 105 or fewer in five games. Both teams have been going under the century mark regularly. Could these teams have a breakout offensive game tonight? It’s possible that one will but we just don’t see both teams breaking out offensively and this total just seems about five points too high. |
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02-14-21 | Lakers v. Nuggets +2.5 | Top | 105-122 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
Top end teams in the west will always get up to play the Lakers. But the Nuggets have a lot of extra motivation here on Sunday. Not only did LA dump them from the playoff last season, but the Lakers just crushed Denver in LA less than two weeks ago. Denver played well in the first half but then were totally embarrassed in the second half as they were outscored 68-35. That one had to sting and we are sure Denver will put together more of a complete game here at home. They have double revenge in this one while this is just another game for the Lakers, who get their best shot from teams every night. The Lakers are having about the best start of a season any fan could ask for at 21-6. But look at their ATS record: 13-14. This team is overrated by the oddsmakers and their lines are shaded in every game. We have Denver favored in this one. This is probably one of the Lakers toughest regular season matchups. |
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02-13-21 | 76ers v. Suns UNDER 222 | Top | 111-120 | Loss | -102 | 3 h 45 m | Show |
These are two Top 10 defenses squaring off today in this matchup, and the Suns are really underrated defensively as they are No. 4 in the league for points allowed. Chris Paul is now running the show in Phoenix and he slows down the pace on offense and is very deliberate. When the Suns are facing off against the best teams, especially teams with a winning percentage of .600 or better, the under is 4-0, meaning the Suns normally up the defensive intensity in these games, and we expect that to be the case today. Both teams have played a couple high-scoring games lately and that has caused the bookies to raise this number, but we think it’s too high even though overnight action from the sharps brought this number down quite a bit already. Not low enough as we expect a playoff atmosphere here today. |
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02-11-21 | Raptors v. Celtics UNDER 221 | Top | 106-120 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
Toronto has been an over machine lately with seven straight overs. But they have played a lot of bad defensive teams during that stretch. They face a really good one tonight as Boston is No.6 for points allowed in the NBA. We think this total has been inflated about five points too high. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and when they meet it usually has a playoff atmosphere, and both teams will likely put some good effort on the defensive side of the ball. |
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02-10-21 | Thunder +11.5 v. Lakers | Top | 113-114 | Win | 101 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
The Lakers are winning but not playing championship basketball right now. It was inevitable. They finished up the 2019-20 season what seemed like a month ago, and they were one of the teams that was against starting the new NBA season in December. But the Lakers came out of the gates strong and showed their Bubble championship was no fluke. But they have covered only two of their last eight games. They went to OT in their last two games, at home, against Detroit and this Thunder squad. They have been winning but haven’t looked great doing it, all while being overvalued by the oddsmakers like they always are. OKC led that game, on Monday, most of the way through. We think them keeping it close will motivate them to do better tonight, and it’s hard to beat the same team twice back to back even when one is one of the best teams in the NBA and one is one of the worst. But the Thunder, lacking talent, play good team basketball. They have a winning ATS record this season. Also, Anthony Davis is questionable again for tonight with an achillies injury. OKC has also covered four straight here in LA against the Lakers. |
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02-09-21 | Magic v. Blazers -6 | Top | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
The Magic have covered in only one of their last six games. This team is just not playing well, and despite getting some favorable lines from the oddsmakers, they are still playing well below expectations. They face a tough test tonight in Portland. The Blazers have been up and down this season, but they have won two of three and covered in four of their last six. They are coming off a long road trip which saw them notch a win in Philly, so that is the type of win that can start things going in the right direction. Neither team has been good defensively, but the Blazers have one of the best offenses in the league, while Orlando has one of the worst, and that should be the difference tonight. |
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02-05-21 | Wizards +6.5 v. Heat | Top | 95-122 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
These teams played last time out and the Wizards won outright as a big dog without Russell Westbrook. He will be back tonight and this team should take care of business once again or at least keep this one close. The Wizards match up well here. The Heat have won one of their last eight games. So why are they favored by this much? Washington has a bad reputation with bettors and they have started off the season slow with Covid issues and getting a new star into the mix. But this is too many points for what should be another close game. |
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02-04-21 | Nuggets +5.5 v. Lakers | Top | 93-114 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
This is a revenge game for the Nuggets, who lost in the Conference Finals to these Lakers last year. The Nuggets have won six of seven games, and this will be their first game of Feb so they are extremely well rested and have had plenty of time to focus on this game, which is probably their biggest of the season so far. The Lakers have covered in just one of their last five games. This team is always overvalued by the oddsmakers. Even in seasons where they are great SU, they often have a negative ATS record. We feel they are overvalued here as all the motivation lies with the Nuggets, while this is just another game for LA. And the Lakers are back home after a long road trip, which can often be a tricky situation for players who have personal business to attend to and could be distracted from the game. |
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02-02-21 | Clippers -1.5 v. Nets | Top | 120-124 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
The Clippers are just getting to where they want to be. Last season they had chemistry issues and their main guys didn’t have an appropriate time to build together. Now the Nets are in that same situation, while the Clippers are playing their best basketball of the Kawhi era. The Clippers are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now, and they are covering too with a 7-2 ATS record in their last nine. This is probably a game they have had circled for awhile. The Nets are a darned good team, but they are still working out issues, and we think the better team will take care of business tonight. |
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01-30-21 | Lakers v. Celtics +2 | Top | 96-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
The Lakers started the season better than we expected after winning the NBA Finals what seems like last week. But they have hit the wall lately, with consecutive losses, a legit one at Philly and then a concerning blowout at Detroit. Things don’t get easier tonight as they face one of their biggest rivals as the road trip drags on. Anthony Davis is questionable here, but even if he does play we think the Celtics have a great chance here. They always get up for the Lakers, when they come to town, and they are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. |
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01-28-21 | Clippers v. Heat UNDER 215 | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
The Clippers are without three of their big guns, most likely through the weekend, in Kawhi, PG and Pat Bev. They managed only 99 points last time out with the limited roster in a loss at Atlanta. We don’t see them doing much tonight, either, on offense. Miami is not as good on defense this season as we are accustomed to, but their offense is among the worst in the NBA, so we don’t see them putting up a crazy total against a Clips team that has been playing stellar defense and has the players on the court tonight to continue that trend. |
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01-27-21 | Kings v. Magic -1 | Top | 121-107 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
The Kings are 1-4 on the road this season. They are in for a tough task tonight to get their second road win. The Magic are off to a slow start. But this is a better ballclub than they have played so far. And they are better than the Kings. They have showed promise lately. They have won two of their last four, but they were very competitive in all those games, losing to the Pacers on the road in OT and losing to Charlotte by 3 in the first game of a back-to-back against them where they won by 9 the following night. The Kings have won one of their last five, against the Knicks, and they have covered in only two of their last 10 despite some very favorable lines from the oddsmakers. The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a home favorite and we think they are undervalued here tonight. |
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01-26-21 | Knicks +11.5 v. Jazz | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
Utah has been playing as well as anybody in the league lately, but we think the oddsmakers have overpriced them here. The Knicks are much improved this season and they have the No. 1 defense in the NBA for points allowed. They have covered in four of their last five games, so they are playing beyond the oddsmakers expectations right now but they aren’t on the radar of casual bettors. For Utah this is a bad spot. They are coming off a win against Golden State and have two matchups against Dallas upcoming. So they won’t be focused on an out of conference team that is not a playoff contender. They don’t need to give full effort here and probably won’t, and they can still win. But that Knicks defense should keep the score respectable and keep them within double digits.  |
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01-24-21 | Thunder +13 v. Clippers | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
These teams played Friday and OKC was one missed free throw at the end of the game of covering. We expect them to get the cover tonight. The Clips have been playing as well as any team in the NBA. But we just don’t see them blowing out the Thunder in consecutive matchups. OKC was down big in that last game and fought hard to make it respectable. LA goes on the road after this and we think they will be distracted here and just don’t see them bringing their A Game today. We think OKC keeps this within double digits. |
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01-23-21 | Warriors v. Jazz -7 | Top | 108-127 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
Utah is playing the best basketball in the NBA right now, and it’s not even close for second. They have won and covered in seven straight, and this team looks like it is playing with a chip on its shoulder. That chip should still be there tonight after they were embarrassed on live TV Thursday by the TNT crew. Utah always seems to have the Warriors’ number as they have covered in eight of the last 10 meetings. Golden State is better this year, but they are inconsistent, and they were spanked by the Knicks last time out so they are not in great form. |
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01-21-21 | Lakers v. Bucks -1 | Top | 113-106 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Both teams are playing well but we think the motivation lies with the home team here. The Lakers are defending champs and they don’t have anything to prove. This is a marquee national TV game but just another matchup for them. After flaming out in the postseason last season, the Bucks have a lot to prove and they will want to show they are one of the best teams in the NBA. Plus, the bookies always shade the lines for the Lakers, and we think that is the case here as we had this line handicapped at 3.5. Milwaukee has covered in five of the last six meetings. |
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01-19-21 | Pelicans v. Jazz -6 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
Utah is quietly playing as well as any team in the NBA right now. They have won five straight and covered in all of those games. Four of those five were on the road. We think they are undervalued again tonight, especially under the key number of 7 for NBA betting. New Orleans has lost four of five and they didn’t cover in any of those losses. One of these teams is trying to figure things out, while one is in midseason form, and the number is more than fair here for the favorite. |
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01-18-21 | Suns v. Grizzlies UNDER 218.5 | Top | 104-108 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
Both of these teams have been strong to the under this season, and they have a combined 15-8 record for the under. We think this total has once again been inflated. The Suns play at one of the slowest paces in the NBA with Chris Paul running the show. These are two Top 7 defenses and neither offense lights up the scoreboard on a regular basis. We will take advantage of this high total as we think this one could come in under 210. |
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01-17-21 | Jazz +0.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Going to ride the hot team here as the Jazz have won four straight and covered in all those games. This team has notoriously gotten off to slow starts in recent years, but this year is different and they seen very focused and determined. The Nuggets are 4-8 ATS to start the season, so this team has been a bit overrated at the beginning of the season. The Jazz are 6-2 this season away from home and have been very good in this role. We think with both teams bringing their A Game that the Jazz are the better team. |
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01-16-21 | Rockets +7.5 v. Spurs | Top | 91-103 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
We had Houston when these teams played on Thursday and the Rockets won outright. We normally would go the other way when the home team loses like this in the first game but we just think this line is out of whack. The Spurs are now 0-3 ATS this season as a favorite of three or more, and this team just isn’t good enough to be laying big points. The Rockets got rid of their team cancer in Harden that was holding them back. This team lost a lot of talent when he left town, but now they can focus on maximizing the talent they do have on the team and they are underrated a bit by the oddsmakers now. |
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01-15-21 | Knicks v. Cavs UNDER 197.5 | Top | 103-106 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
It’s crazy to see a total in the present-day NBA under 200. But this one is justified. These two teams have Top 4 defenses. And they are the two worst offensive teams in the NBA. This is going to be an old-school defensive battle. Cleveland hasn’t gone over the century mark in nine straight games. New York has scored under 100 in three of their last four. These teams are a combined 19-5 to the under this season. |
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01-14-21 | Rockets +7 v. Spurs | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Just think this spread is an overreaction to a few things. First, the Rockets are in a state of disarray after the Harden trade and his comments blasting the team after losing twice to the Lakers. And those two losses to the World Champs hurt bettors confidence in this team. There hasn’t been much positive news out of this club all season. But we think this line is inflated. This is the most points the Spurs have laid all season. They are 0-2 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 points this season. This is not a good team, either. And we think the Rockets players will come out and play hard after Harden said they basically suck on his way out of town. |
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01-13-21 | Nets v. Knicks UNDER 220 | Top | 116-109 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
The Knicks are the best UNDER team in the NBA at 9-2. They are playing some of the best defense in the NBA and they have a struggling offense. That is a great recipe for UNDERS, and the total has been posted too high here once again. Brooklyn has gone over a bunch lately. Therefore, the oddsmakers had to post a high number here. But New York has been horrible offensively lately, as they haven’t scored more than 90 in three straight games. They haven’t scored more than 106 in six of their last eight games, and you would have to think they would need more than that tonight in order for this one to go over the total. It’s unlikely Brooklyn will have a big offensive night, with the Knicks D playing well and some distractions bogging down the team. If New York wants to keep this one competitive, they will need to slow the pace and count on defense for success. |
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01-12-21 | Spurs v. Thunder UNDER 219 | Top | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
This series has a strong history of the under with the under 13-6-1 in the last 20 meetings in OKC. We think that trend will continue to flourish tonight. These are two very poor offensive teams. The Thunder rarely break out for a big offensive game. Two of their last six games saw them score 80 and 90 points. San Antonio isn’t in good offensive form right now as they put up 88 points to Minnesota in a loss last time out. We see both teams barely passing the century mark in this one, and with no OT as we expect a close game, we should be solid. |
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01-10-21 | Bulls v. Clippers -11.5 | Top | 127-130 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
We always like to back the Clippers after a loss. This team has a penchant for bouncing back from losses that stretches back to last season. They have covered after every loss this season, usually with a strong performance. This team has a clean injury sheet, and we think they will step up the defensive intensity here against a shorthanded Bulls team that has played six of their last seven on the road and is probably ready to get back home. This looks like a blowout to us. |
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01-09-21 | Hawks -4 v. Hornets | Top | 105-113 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
Love the Hawks in this spot after the Ball Game in New Orleans last night. Some overhyped players played a big game and this is a letdown spot for Hornets. Atlanta has been inconsistent but this ia a very solid team, and we had this line at 7, so very nice value on Saturday. |
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01-08-21 | Magic +193 v. Rockets | Top | 90-132 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
The Magic have some injury issues but this team is confident with who they have on the court right now and they are facing a Rockets team that is really struggling to start the season and is just a mess with a lot of drama and issues all through the team. We thought the moneyline on this one would be closer to -150, so there is some very nice value in what we see is a very winnable game for the road team. |
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01-07-21 | 76ers v. Nets +1.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Durant is out here but we think the Nets are a solid team without him and they have a great chance for the win here against a Sixers team that is on a back-to-back tonight. The Sixers have been hot to start off the season, but this team has had a manageable schedule and on this B2B we think they will be in a bad spot and likely lose to a Nets team that is still quality without their star. |
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01-06-21 | Bulls v. Kings -7 | Top | 124-128 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
The Bulls are coming in on a back-to-back and they had a big win over Portland on the road where they were down big but came back to win. They expended a lot of energy in that game, and we don’t think they will have a lot left in the tank to be competitive here tonight. The Kings started off the season with a 3-1 record but have lost three straight. The last game was against the Warriors, where they were embarrassed in a blowout loss. This seems like a get right game for them against a fatigued opponent, and we think there’s a great chance for a double-digit win by the home team tonight. |
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01-05-21 | Spurs v. Clippers -9.5 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
This isn’t your father’s Spurs team. This team has been getting worse every year for the last few years, and we think this might be a bottom out season where they don’t even sniff a playoff spot. This team is really struggling right now with four straight losses. They are in tough tonight against a Clippers team that might be the most motivated in the NBA here at the start of the season. They look like the second of third best team in the NBA this season and look even better than last year’s squad that flamed out in The Bubble. We think there’s a great chance for a double digit win here. |
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01-04-21 | Cavs v. Magic -5 | Top | 83-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
Cleveland has been playing well to start the season, but they are facing a team tonight that doesn’t get a lot of respect from the oddsmakers, and this line is too low in our opinion. Orlando has an identical 4-2 record than that of the Cavs and are also 4-2 ATS. This team is a playoff contender though, and we can’t say that about Cleveland. After beating Atlanta SU last time, this looks like a letdown spot for a Cavs team that won’t be as motivated by their opponent. Orlando is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. |
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01-03-21 | Blazers v. Warriors +5.5 | Top | 122-137 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
These teams played Friday, and Portland came out with a blowout victory. There are a lot of teams facing each other in consecutive games, and the team that lost the last time normally gives a better effort the next game. We think this one will be more competitive. The Blazers probably won’t come with as much intensity after the easy win, and the Warriors will probably come with much better effort and intensity. |
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01-02-21 | Knicks +9.5 v. Pacers | Top | 106-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
This is a rematch from the first game of the season, which was not long ago, so revenge could be a factor here. The Knicks are improved this season. They beat Milwaukee recently in a blowout win. They have won two of three and they held tough with Toronto last time out until the fourth quarter. This team need to be more consistent, but we think this is too many points tonight. The Knicks are playing with more confidence this season, and we think they will be a live dog when getting massive points in certain spots. |
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01-01-21 | Clippers -3 v. Jazz | Top | 100-106 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
It’s hard to justify when a team lost by so many points like they did to Dallas, but this Clippers team is playing as good of basketball as any team in the NBA. They have had one of the toughest schedules in the NBA to start off the season, but they have won their games very comfortably. They have covered all their games except of course that Dallas loss. Utah is on a back-to-back here and they didn’t play well against the Suns last night. This team has covered only one game so far, and the Jazz are notorious for their slow starts. LA is playing with a chip on their shoulders and they look to prove all the doubters wrong that criticized them after last season’s flameout. We think they take care of business again tonight. |
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12-31-20 | Knicks v. Raptors -8.5 | Top | 83-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
The Raptors are winless on the season at 0-3. However, this is a championship contender team that has been one of the best ATS teams in the league the last couple years and this looks like a Get Right game for them. The Raptors have started off the season with games against three straight playoff contenders, and two of those games have been on the road, not in their new home base. The Knicks are a better team this year but this squad still has a long way to go, and they should face up against a very motivated Toronto team tonight. This very much has the look of a double-digit blowout game. The Knicks are 0-7 ATS in the last seven meetings away from the Garden and 2-8 ATS overall in the last 10 meetings. |
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12-30-20 | Bucks v. Heat +5.5 | Top | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
The Bucks got their revenge over the Heat last night in a complete and utter blowout by almost 50 points. But now it’s time for the Heat to get some revenge from that horrible loss. The Bucks jumped out to a 20-point lead in the first quarter and were up by 30+ at halftime, and it was garbage time from there on out. But this NBA season is unique and we will see these types of back-to-backs often, and it is hard to beat a team two nights in a row, especially at their own place. The Heat have one of the NBA’s best coaches, and he should be able to make adjustments for his team to be more competitive. Milwaukee set an NBA record for made 3-pointers, and they isn’t going to happen two nights in a row. Miami is a proud team that was just in the NBA Finals, and we think they will bring their A Game here after that embarrassing result. The Bucks aren’t in midseason form right now as they just lost to the Knicks by 20. Jimmy Butler could conceivably be back here for Miami, so that would aid their chances for an outright win. The Bucks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 visits to Miami. |
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12-29-20 | Wolves v. Clippers -10 | Top | 101-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
We like to back a good team coming off a bad loss, and that is the case here with the Clippers tonight. They suffered one of the worst losses in franchise history last time out against the Mavs. They just didn’t come to play and it had to be embarrassing for the players. This team will come out well prepared tonight. They have had probably the toughest schedule in the league to start off the season and are at 2-1 against it, and they won’t overlook the Wolves after that effort against Dallas. |
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12-28-20 | Blazers +4 v. Lakers | Top | 115-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
One of the best bets and the strongest trends in the NBA since we began handicapping almost 20 years ago is the Blazers ATS against the Lakers. They have covered 21 of the last 19 meetings in LA, and no matter the strength of the teams, they always bring their A Game when playing the Lakers. The Lakers are on a B2B, Anthony Davis is banged up, and this team is always overrated by the oddsmakers. We think the Blazers can win this one outright. |
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12-27-20 | Magic v. Wizards +1.5 | Top | 120-113 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
We are going to see some strange scheduling stuff in the NBA this season, and here we are. These teams played here yesterday. The Magic won, but we just don’t see that happening twice in a row on the Wizards home court. Washington is a team we are high on to start the season, and we don’t see them playing two bad games consecutively against the same team. And now we are getting points instead od laying them. |
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12-26-20 | Magic v. Wizards -2 | Top | 130-120 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
We went big on the Wizards in their first game at Philly and they lost but covered. The game was a lot closer than the final score indicated, and Washington led much of the way. We think this team is underrated by the oddsmakers to start the season, so that result was great for us to keep the value on this team. Westbrook is the perfect fit here, and this team has underrated young talent. We think they are motivated for a strong start to the season, and we think they bring their A Game tonight. |
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12-25-20 | Mavs +6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 115-138 | Loss | -114 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
LeBron is hobbled but said he would likely play here. With or without him, we like the Mavs here to keep this one close with a chance for the outright win. As if they wouldn’t take this game seriously anyways against the defending champs, they lost their first game so they don’t want to fall to 0-2. We don’t think that prospect is as important to the Lakers, one of the teams that didn’t want the new NBA season to start in December. This team probably won’t be the No. 1 seed this season and they probably don’t need it. We don’t see them getting real serious for about 6-8 weeks. They are normally overvalued by the oddsmakers anyways, but we see them as a team to fade for sure until we see them consistently kicking it up into the midseason gear. |
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12-23-20 | Wizards +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
The Wizards are under the radar coming into this season. We think they are going to be pretty good and a solid ATS team to start the season. Russell Westbrook is a great addition to this team and he pairs with Beal extremely well. This team has some nice young talent, and Westbrook’s presence will help them develop and he will take a lot of pressure off Beal, who had a great season last year and should be even better with the pressure off him to carry the team this year. This team will be putting up some crazy numbers on offense and should be able to win a lot of shootouts. Watch out if they can play any defense. Philly got off to a slow start last season and we think that could be the case this season with a new coach and still a strange mix of players that has never figured the formula for success to match their talent. |
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12-22-20 | Clippers +3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Everyone is down on the Clippers. They did lose some depth but this team didn’t lose enough to warrant such a drop on confidence from the masses. This squad didn’t get to play together much during the season because of injuries and that lack of cohesion showed in the postseason, and the strange atmosphere of the Bubble didn’t help matters. In our minds the Clips are still the clear No. 2 squad in the west and a legit contender. The Lakers just finished their title run what seemed like yesterday and they will probably take some time to get into championship form. We expect a sluggish start from the champs this season. The Clippers seem to have more to prove here and more motivation tonight. |
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10-09-20 | Heat v. Lakers UNDER 216.5 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
These teams had an extra day off from their normal schedule, and that should provide energy for both teams on the defensive end. Miami really has to step up the defense tonight if they want to have any chance of getting back in this series, and we think they will play well on the defensive end and possibly keep this game close. Three of the last four games in this series have gone under the posted total, and with the extra day off we think this one will go that way as well, as both teams have the motivation to play top-level defense tonight. |
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10-06-20 | Lakers -7.5 v. Heat | Top | 102-96 | Loss | -101 | 34 h 46 m | Show |
The Lakers sometimes need a wake up call, and they got it Sunday when they were pretty much blown out by the Heat in Game 3. They haven’t lost much in this postseason, but when they have they have bounced back strong in their next game. We see them playing much better on Tuesday, and the oddsmakers have adjusted this number and the Lakers are now more attractive on the spread. Miami is a plucky team and they have had a great postseason for the ages. But when it comes down to pure talent and superstar power, the Lakers have a huge edge. And if they play up to their potential, which they did not do in Game 3, there is no reason they should not win this one by double digits. |
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10-04-20 | Lakers v. Heat OVER 218.5 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 32 h 34 m | Show |
We hit the total on both games so far in the NBA Finals, and we think that after the first game jitters with the under that the scoring will continue to be fluid here in Game 3.  We stated that Miami would be more competitive in Game 2 and they were, and we can see that continue here in Game 3 so there will be no blowout like in Game 1 where Miami doesn’t score enough to help get over the total. The Lakers offense is working so well now and they are playing some of their best basketball of the season, and we don’t see the Heat having any solutions for them on the defensive end. We see the Lakers putting up a big point total for the third straight game in these NBA Finals and the Heat will show some nice heart and make sure they do the rest to get this total over the posted number. |
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10-02-20 | Heat v. Lakers OVER 216.5 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
We scored a big winner on the UNDER in Game 1, but we are going the other way for Game 2. That Game 1 total was close to going over at the end of the game despite a horrible offensive performance from the Heat. This team has been pretty much rock solid all playoffs, and even with some key injuries for Game 2 we think we will see a much more competitive performance from them on Friday. The Heat showed that they have no answer for the Lakers on defense. Los Angeles could have scored a lot more had they not took their feet off the gas pedal late in the game in an attempt to drain the clock. Lakers starters played limited minutes compared to a normal game because of the blowout. They should be fresh and primed on offense. LA has been really good on offense lately and this team is gelling and playing some of their best basketball of the season right now. We think they put up a big point total for Game 2, and the Heat should make up the difference to get this one over the posted number. |
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09-27-20 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 214 | Top | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Unlike the previous series for these two teams, the over has been the play here in this series, and four of the five games have gone over the posted total. The one that didn’t was only one point under. But the bookies have not adjusted this totals number much. These are two defensive teams, so that’s understandable. And the playoff normally focus on defense. But even with some lapses in scoring, these teams have been pretty good offensively.. They both shot well in Game 5, and Boston had their breakout game of the series on offense with 121 points in the win. We think they can match that effort here today as we think the momentum has switched sides, and this total looks about five points too low. |
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09-26-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
The Nuggets have had a great run. They came back from big deficits against the Jazz and Clippers to win those series. But we think they don’t have another rally in them. Both of their series before this went to Game 7. This team has played a lot of basketball, and we think that this might be a real ugly game for them. The Lakers want to end this while the Celtics/Heat series is still going to give themselves some extra time to rest, and we expect them to go all out tonight while they have the Nuggets on the ropes. They don’t want Denver winning this one and getting confidence for another 3-1 comeback. We think they play lockdown defense and shut down a Denver offense that should be running on fumes here. We think this is a great chance for a double-digit Lakers win, and we are getting the best line of the series for the favorites. |
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09-25-20 | Heat v. Celtics -3 | Top | 108-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
We have not given up on Boston yet and think they have a good chance to extend this series to Game 7, where anything can happen in that situation. The Celtics didn’t play well in Game 4, but they were still in a position to win or at least force OT at the end of the game. This team seems to have the fortitude to dig deep for a must-win tonight, and they have one of the best coaches in the league that will be giving it his all as well. We see them playing a great game on both sides of the ball tonight to extend the series to Game 6. |
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09-24-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets +6.5 | Top | 114-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Just like the Clippers series, the Nuggets are playing carefree and loose, while the Lakers have all the pressure on them. This series has looked pretty even to us for the most part, at least in the last two games. And the Nuggets could easily be up 2-1 in this series. The Lakers are always shaded by the oddsmakers and this Game 4 is a perfect example as by what we have seen on the court the Nugs should be catching around three points. Some good value on this line as we expect another close game. |
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09-23-20 | Celtics -3.5 v. Heat | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
Boston got right back into this series in Game 3 with a big win, and it’s easy to think they can keep the momentum going tonight. They had a rare three nights off because of the strange scheduling in the bubble, and as a result they got some much needed R and R. This definitely benefits the Celtics more since the Heat had them kind of on the ropes after that 2-0 lead but now Boston recaptured the momentum and they got some time to get Hayward some more rest, and he should be a major factor tonight in this likely win. Boston is the better defensive team, and with the extra rest we should see that unit flourish tonight. And their offense really woke up in Game 3 with 117 points, and we see that continuing tonight, especially with Hayward more fully in the mix. Miami is playing some very good basketball right now, but they have had an easy path and haven’t faced a lot of adversity. Boston is more battle tested, and ready for this crucial Game 4. And not to mention that Boston has been one of the best betting teams in the NBA for the last several years, and they normally exceed the expectations of the oddsmakers. We think that will be the case again tonight. |
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09-22-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets +6.5 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
Just like in Game 2, we are going with the Nuggets here. Sometimes NBA hoops comes down to mental attitude. Every team in the league has ballers, but some have more talent than others. But the Nuggets are playing with house money and this team looks like they are just having fun. They are super confident and know that no lead or deficit is insurmountable. Just like the Clippers series, that makes them dangerous here and we expect another close game. Denver won’t be fazed, and we think they put forth their best effort tonight in this crucial Game 3. |
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09-20-20 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Lakers | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Going to take a shot on the underdog here. Denver has been nothing but resilient in this playoffs, and they are playing loose with nothing to lose. That is a dangerous team. And this is a talented one, too. We had the Lakers last time out, and we think the Nuggets will bounce back well tonight. We just don’t see another blowout here. Denver is settled in and will play better tonight, and we are getting a better spread than Game 1. |
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09-19-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Taking another shot at the Celtics here in Game 3. This is the most crucial game of a 7-Game series, and Boston is in a must-win situation here. They had a big blowup after blowing a big lead and losing Game 2, and we think that might be healthy for this team as they needed a wakeup call. If they lose tonight this series is essentially over for them, but if they win then they are right back in it. We think they bring their A Game tonight and think there’s a great chance they can win this one by 7+. |
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09-18-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -7 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
We are just not believers in the Nuggets. Kudos for beating the Clippers, but LA beat themselves more than Denver won the series. The Lakers have had extra time off here, and it will benefit them big time. The Lakers should send a card to the Clippers since they got a cakewalk to the Finals. LA will be locked in tonight and we expect a very strong defensive effort from the favorite while the Nuggets didn’t really get a chance to catch their breath and we have a great feeling that this will be a double-digit win by Los Angeles. We think this will be a low scoring game. |
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09-17-20 | Heat v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 106-101 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
We are going the same way we went in Game 1 even though we missed the mark. We love Boston for this series, and we don’t see them going down 0-2. When Boston has lost recently it has been some last-minute stuff or OT, and that was the case in Game 1 once again. We expect the Celtics to really lock down on defense here in Game 2 to give themselves the best chance to wind up on top at the final buzzer. These are two of the better defensive teams in the NBA, and that should be on full force tonight. It’s telling that the bookies didn’t really adjust the numbers here for Game 2, and that tells us we are on the right track here. |
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09-15-20 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 210.5 | Top | 117-114 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
These are two Top 10 defenses. We think that this series will be another defensive battle much like Boston/Toronto, Where six of seven games went under the posted total. Miami has had a long time off. They will probably be rusty on offense and have a lot of energy on defense. Boston has really dialed in the defense lately, and they have had an extra day off from the normal schedule, and that should bring some energy and tenacity on the defensive end. These teams should be feeling each other out here in Game 1 as well, and we just don’t see an offensive explosion here. The bookies seem afraid to post a total too much under 210 these days, but we had this one handicapped at 204, so we think there is some nice value here. And we like the Celtics for Game 1. Miami making the ECF as a No. 5 is a great story. But they beat a pretty weak Indiana team and then a Bucks team that didn’t have their head in the game. Boston is the better team and much more battle tested at this point. |
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09-13-20 | Clippers -8.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 98-111 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
The Clippers blew a big lead in Game 5 and ended up losing the game. They took their foot off the gas too early, and it was tough for this team to get back into the zone again. But you have to remember that the main core of this team hasn’t played together all that much this season and they are still learning. We think that lesson from the Game 5 loss will help them put together a more complete game here on Sunday. They have done very well during the restart after a loss and we think they will bounce back successfully as they have a bunch of times before in this spot. |
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09-12-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 96-119 | Win | 102 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
We probably make plays on the Lakers less than any team in the NBA. They are a very public team, and their odds and normally shaded by the oddsmakers. But they do have value late in this series. The Rockets are a popular team also, and we expected this line to be around 8.5 with the way this series has gone the last couple games. The Lakers were shook out of their funk with the Game 1 loss, and they have rebounded nicely. They won and covered Games 2, 3 and 4, and the oddsmakers haven’t made a huge adjustment to this number. Houston is quite the dysfunctional team this season. They have looked disjointed since Game 1 and have some off court drama that is a distraction as well. We think the Lakers are in their heads big time, and the body language tells us this team doesn’t have much of a chance. We don’t think the Lakers take their foot off the gas tonight and expect them to roll in this likely final game of the series. |
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09-11-20 | Celtics -2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
This is an easy call for Game 7 tonight. Boston is the better team, with the better coach. They will find a way to get the job done tonight. When Toronto has won in this series, they have needed some heroics. But when Boston has won, it has been by domination for the most part. They have had some mental lapses and should have put this one away awhile ago, but the cream will rise to the top tonight. Boston is on a 5-2 ATS run in this series, and they have been one of the most trustworthy ATS teams in the NBA for several years now. We think that there is a great chance they win this one by double digits tonight. |
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09-10-20 | Lakers -5 v. Rockets | Top | 110-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
We thought Houston would make some noise in this series, but after that Game 1 win, the Lakers have been dominating. We see the same tonight, and this is more than a fair spread, something you rarely get when betting on the Lakers. Houston just looks disjointed in the Bubble and they can’t often get a team effort on offense as someone gets cold at the wrong time seemingly too much. We think the Lakers will play lock down defense in this one, and we think there’s a great possibility that this is a blowout, which would bode well for the under. |
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09-09-20 | Raptors v. Celtics UNDER 209.5 | Top | 125-122 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
Every game in this series has gone under by 10 points or more, yet the bookies have not made that big of an adjustment on the total. Just don’t see this game being a breakout game on offense. Probably because of no travel and extra rest, these playoffs have trended to the under, and the bookies have done a lousy job on adjustments. Not matter, since we have been able to take advantage. We think the Celtics will play lockdown defense here and close this series out tonight and get ready for the Heat in an unlikely ECF matchup. |
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09-08-20 | Lakers v. Rockets +5 | Top | 112-102 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
The Lakers played great in Game 2, but this team just hasn’t shown the ability to consistently play like this in the Bubble. We think this will be a close game tonight, and the points look real attractive. We have stated it before, but we think the Lakers are a tad overrated this season and the bookies always shade the lines for their games. We think around 3 would be a more suitable line, so the extra couple points gives some nice value to what looks like a close game to us. |
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09-06-20 | Bucks v. Heat -1 | Top | 118-115 | Loss | -106 | 27 h 8 m | Show |
The oddsmakers finally adjusted this number, but it doesn’t seem like it was enough. The Bucks are cooked here in this series, and we think they will go out with a whimper today. Miami is playing some of their best basketball of the season right now in the Bubble. Giannis Antetokounmpo looks like he is playing through an injury, and the rest of the team has failed to step up. Milwaukee blew it in the playoff last season too, and it looks like we are going to see a repeat this year. It seems the Bucks have mentally left the building before this series. |
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09-05-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -9 | Top | 110-101 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
After a grind-it out Game 7 win against Utah on Tuesday, it had to be demoralizing for the Nuggets to get spanked like they did in Game 1 Thursday against the Clippers. It showed us that Denver doesn’t have much of a chance in this series. And Denver probably knows that, too. Not sure what adjustments they can make here when the Clippers barely broke a sweat in Game 1 and the starters were able to hit the bench early. That is now three straight meetings the Clippers won by double digits. This is what LA has been working towards all season. They are completely healthy now and playing great team basketball. The bench is devastating when the starters need a break. They are much more fresh and rested than Denver. The Clippers have always had trouble in this round but this is by far the best squad in team history and we think they really want to make quick work of this series. With max effort, which we think they will provide, we think a double-digit win is a certainty. |
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09-04-20 | Rockets +6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Really like Houston to make some noise in this series. They had a real tough series against the Thunder, but this is a veteran team and a hungry one. Plus, the Lakers are a tad bit overrated. And they haven’t often played to their potential in the Bubble. Not to mention they are often overrated by the oddsmakers. Houston has Westbrook back now, and he is getting back into the mix and should have a good series. And Harden won’t stay cold long. Houston is s veteran team, so we don’t see them having a hard time getting up for this matchup even though they just played in a real tough Game 7. |
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09-03-20 | Raptors v. Celtics UNDER 217 | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
The public is betting the over while the NBA is trending to the under in the Bubble. So the bookies are afraid to post totals too low. That is why we are still seeing value in the under here after Games 1 and 2 went under by about 30 points combined. And they oddsmakers just made a minimal adjustment to this line. Seven of eight games from Boston have gone under the posted total and four of five for Toronto. Game 3 is crucial here for both teams. The Raptors are toast if they lose this one. And Boston wants to finish this series quick, especially with the Bucks facing some real trouble in their series against Miami. We think both defenses, two of the best in the NBA that are playing in top form now, will rise to the occasion once again. |
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09-02-20 | Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 217.5 | Top | 102-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
The last two games have been defensive battles, and we see the same here tonight. There is really no precedent for play in the Bubble, but we saw last night for Utah/Denver Game 7 how things could go in a Game 7. These teams are tired. The Bubble is taking its toll with the protests and the games every other day. That game last night didn’t even crack 160. We don’t see this one being that low scoring, but we do think the defenses will lock down in this crucial game and that the offenses might be lagging as they haven’t been great lately and there’s a good chance they could take another step back tonight. The Thunder will have to rely on their defense to stay in the game, and we expect a close, low-scoring game in this one tonight. |
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09-01-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets | Top | 78-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Denver seemingly took all the momentum in this series, but you can throw all that out the window as the season comes down to one game here. Despite the season records, we think Utah is a tad bit better as a team. Remember, like always this team got off to a slow start but started playing better as the season went on. We think they will come out focused and determined tonight and will advance to play the Clippers in Round 2. We really think their defense will step up and play one of the best games of the series on the defensive end. |
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08-31-20 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 224 | Top | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
This series has a strong history for the under in recent meetings with six of the last eight meetings going under the posted total. The Heat are one of the better defensive clubs in the league, and they have been off for a week so they should have a lot of intensity to bring on the defensive end. We expect some great energy on that side of the ball as Miami wants to set the tone here in Game 1. The Bucks didn’t really get tested in their first series, but we think they will be here by the underrated Heat tonight. We think the bookies made a mistake on this Game 1 total. |
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08-30-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +10.5 | Top | 111-97 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 21 m | Show |
We were on the Rockets yesterday because we thought they benefited more from the boycott than did the Thunder. We think the same way about the Mavs today. The Clippers were at the center of a lot of the activity during the boycott. Coach Doc Rivers was center stage, and the Clippers reportedly were one of the teams, along with the Lakers, that wanted to end the season. They had the Mavs on the ropes after their big 40+-point win, and they looked primed to end this series. But now Dallas had a chance to reset. Luka Doncic had extra time to rest his ankle. Dallas will be without Porzingis likely for the rest of this series. But they have become used to playing without him, and Doncic is the type of player, like Curry for Golden State, who elevates the play of the guys around him. We think this game will be similar to the Lakers game last night where a Damian Lillard-less Portland stayed within 10 and covered the number. The Lakers were the other team that reportedly wanted to end the season, and its stars were front and center during the boycott. But in this Clippers game we have the biggest spread of the series, and we think it’s an overreaction to that Game 5 result. |
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08-29-20 | Thunder v. Rockets -4.5 | Top | 80-114 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
The extra days off for the boycott really helped the Rockets. OKC had them on the ropes with two straight wins, but the time off gave Houston a chance to reset and stifled the momentum for the Thunder. And now the Rockets get Russell Westbrook back for this Saturday game and they have the best chance to take control of this series. Westbrook has been lighting it up in practice and he should be a game changer for the rest of this series. OKC has been a nice story this year and they have come together to have a very nice season above expectations. But the Rockets are the much better team and we expect them to play a well-rounded game tonight in what should be a comfortable win. |
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08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -7.5 | Top | 111-154 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
This series is tied now after an incredible performance from Dallas in Game 4. But if you look at the Clippers results in The Bubble, they have suffered four losses since the restart, and every time they came back and played to their capabilities, covering in all those games. All but one win came by double digits. In Game 4 Dallas saw one of the best performances in playoff history by Luka Doncic. Not only was he going off, but some of the role players had excellent games as well. But even with the Mavs playing out of their minds, they still needed OT and an amazing buzzer-beater just to win the game on a night the Clippers just didn’t play well for most of the game. As recent history has show, LA knows how to follow up a lousy performance with a great one. Paul George has been the blame for a lot of the Clippers problems with his shooting slump. He will get out of this slump before too long. And it will probably be tonight. We expect to see an incredibly focused Clippers group tonight, and we think they will play to their potential. It’s doubtful that Doncic will have anywhere near the game he had last time out, and the role players are due for regression. |
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08-24-20 | Lakers -7 v. Blazers | Top | 135-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
Before the series we thought the Blazers might make more noise in this series. But the Game 1 loss was a wakeup call for the Lakers, and we think they have all the momentum here in this series. The Bubble is an interesting place. In a normal NBA playoff series, the change in venue means a lot and can get the underdog back into the series. But there is no homecoming for the Blazers, and they are in a real tough spot here now. They are on the ropes. They started the playoffs early with the seeding games and then the play in game, and this team just looks tired and defeated. With no home-court to go back to, we think morale is low. The Lakers losing the first game was the best thing for them. That made them focus, and now we think they want to end this series ASAP as some of the other Western Conference teams are now in a dogfight in their series. We rarely bet on the Lakers as they are normally shaded by the oddsmakers and there is rarely value. But we think this line is more than fair tonight. We think this one has a great chance to be a double-digit win for the Lakers. |
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