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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-26-17 | Suns +7 v. Nuggets | Top | 120-127 | Push | 0 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
Denver has played well lately but this team is not worthy of being a seven-point favorite over any NBA team. The Suns are playing well too but this team is more under the radar, but they have covered in five of their last six games and they should play their A Game here tonight in what is a very winnable game. The Nuggets haven’t been big favorites too often this season, but when they are they are just 1-2 ATS and we expect a close game here. |
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01-25-17 | Rockets v. Celtics UNDER 229 | Top | 109-120 | Push | 0 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
This series has a strong history of unders. In fact, 10 of the last 11 meetings have gone under the posted number. These teams are both very good offensively, make no mistake, but sometimes the bookies just set the total too high and we think that’s the case tonight. The Celtics have lost three straight and the Rockets two of three, and both teams will be desperate for a win and we think both tighten up on the defensive end. Five of the last seven games for Houston have gone under the total and that tells you that the bookies have been inflating these numbers. The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Boston. We think there is a good chance that this one goes well under the posted number. |
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01-24-17 | Clippers -4.5 v. 76ers | Top | 110-121 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
The Sixers covered in the last meeting last season but the Clippers had covered in eight straight meetings in this series before that last game (the Clips won by six against a nine-point spread). LA should get Blake Griffin back tonight. Although he won’t play full minutes he should give this team a huge boost both emotionally and on the floor as well. You can kind of tell that this team played like they knew the cavalry was coming last time out in a 10-point win at Atlanta as this team just has not historically done well with Griffin and Chris Paul out of the lineup. We think their star will give them a big boost tonight and Embiid is not expected to play for Philly and they are not as strong without him. |
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01-23-17 | Spurs -11 v. Nets | Top | 112-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
The Spurs have won and covered the last three games in this series, and none have been close. In fact, the Spurs have won all three games by an average of 28 points. And we are getting the shortest line they have faced in any of those games. The Spurs are being punished here by the oddsmakers because Tony Parker and Pau Gasol are out, but this team is less about the players than the system, and they have plenty of solid players to pick up the slack. The Spurs have been great at covering big lines and they are 17-11 ATS when laying six or more points this season. This team doesn’t let up in the fourth quarter with a big lead and that is why they are such a great team to bet on. |
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01-22-17 | Lakers +6 v. Mavs | Top | 73-122 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
We like the way the Mavs have been playing lately and we have been on them in certain games, but we just don’t think they are ready to be favored by this many points over any team. This is the biggest favorite they have been all season, and we think this will be a close game. The Lakers definitely have a chance to win this one. They have lost 12 straight to the Mavs and that ups the urgency to go out and get a win here. And the Mavs teams that won most of those games against the Lakers is not as good this season and the Lakers are improved, and we think they come to play here on Sunday. |
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01-21-17 | Spurs +2.5 v. Cavs | Top | 118-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
We are not a big fan of this Cavs team and there probably isn’t a more overrated squad in the east. Yes, they are the best in the east by far, but they are always overvalued by the oddsmakers (18-21-2 ATS this season) and we don’t think they stack up well against the best teams in the west. Anytime you are getting points for the Spurs you really have to take notice, and that is the case here tonight. The Spurs have covered in five of the last seven meetings in Cleveland, and we think they win this one straight up tonight, but we will take the points instead of the moneyline in case it’s a close game. The Spurs have been dogs only twice this season, and of course they are 2-0 ATS in these situations. Make that 3-0 tonight. |
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01-19-17 | Wolves -105 v. Clippers | Top | 104-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Chris Paul is out 6-8 weeks after having surgery on his hand. Blake Griffin is also out for the Clippers. Say what you will about the strength of this bench, but you just can't argue the fact that this Clippers team doesn't play well without their main two guys. They are 3-9 since the start of the season when Paul and Griffin are out. In the past two seasons they are 5-12 with Paul out of the lineup. He makes everyone around him better, and when the team has to count on DeAndre Jordan as the leader and main focus then there are some big problems. This Minnesota team has been pretty lousy this season, but they have won three of four as of this writing and two of those wins were over Houston and OKC. They have covered in five of their last six games. The Clippers are getting too much credit here for home court and we think the Wolves are the more talented team on the court here and they should be able to notch a road win at Staples. |
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01-18-17 | Pacers v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 106-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Year. This is the last game of a seven-game homestand for the Kings. It hasn’t gone well. They have only one win during that stretch. We think that makes them a very desperate team tonight in a very winnable game. They are on the road for eight straight games after this game tonight, and they better get a win here at home against a very beatable opponent because if they lose this one they are in trouble. There isn’t much such a thing as a must-win game at this point in the season, but this one is close. If you look at the opponents the Kings have played in this recent homestand you start to think that maybe this team is not playing as bad as their recent results indicate. Opponents included the Clippers, Warriors, Cavs and Thunder. That’s about as tough as a four-game stretch as a team can have. They won against Detroit. The only bad loss during that stretch was against Miami. They took Cleveland to OT and covered against the Warriors. They played OKC pretty close too despite the non cover. Indiana has had a lot easier recent schedule. They are 6-1 in their last seven games, with wins over New Orleans (Anthony Davis had limited minutes), New York, Brooklyn, Detroit, Orlando and Chicago. And most of these games were at home. We are confident the Kings could have played just as well with that schedule, and the Pacers are overvalued as a result. But the Pacers just stink on the road, where they have won only five games this season. They are 5-13 ATS on the road, so when they lose they normally fail to cover as well. Sacramento is 4-1 ATS as a small favorite this season (less than 4.5 points) and the Pacers are 3-9 ATS as an underdog of less than 4.5 points. |
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01-17-17 | Mavs +5.5 v. Bulls | Top | 99-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
Dallas has won and covered in two straight games and this team is playing with some confidence right now. The Bulls have eight more wins than the Mavs this season but Dallas has dealt with a lot of injuries all season and these teams aren’t as far apart as you might think. We just don’t think the Bulls are good enough to be laying this many points to any team coming off of two wins. Chicago has not been a good team to back as a favorite as they are 4-9 ATS when laying four or more points this season and we think they are overvalued here once again. Dallas plays in the Western Conference and they play tougher teams on a nightly basis and that is a big reason for such a disparity in these teams records, plus the injuries for Dallas. The Mavs have won three straight in this series and they have won and covered in four of the last five. We think they have a great chance for the straight up win here tonight. |
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01-16-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 91-126 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
We just think the Warriors are a much better team in this matchup. Yes, the Cavs won the finals last season, but we think the Warriors were out of gas late in that series after (stupidly) trying so hard for the regular-season wins record. And Cleveland got the win on Christmas when these teams played but they caught the Warriors at the end of that game and we thought Golden State controlled most of that game. Now the venue changes as the Warriors are back home for this one and we think they have a big game here as they should be very very motivated and this team plays its best with a chip on its shoulder. |
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01-14-17 | 76ers v. Wizards -9.5 | Top | 93-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
The Wizards are one of those teams that has no clue on the road but is great at home. They are 15-6 at home this season and have covered in nine of their last 10 here in DC. Philly will likely be without Rookie of the Year frontrunner Embiid as he normally rests on the second end of a back-to-back. That’s probably a big reason that the Sixers are 1-6 in back-to-backs this season. The Wizards just play great on their home court and they have had two nights off coming into this one. Philly has been playing pretty great lately but this team still has a long way to go and we see a blowout win for the home team here tonight. |
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01-13-17 | Celtics +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 103-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Boston is a little banged up but this team is better than Atlanta and we think it’s a gift to get points in this matchup tonight. We fully expect the Celtics to win this one. Atlanta is playing really well right now but this squad has had a super easy schedule and San Antonio is the only real quality win they have in that time. We think this one would qualify as a quality win but that’s not going to happen. This is another game where we had the underdog as a slight favorite and we think that the Celtics will take this one on the road here on Friday. |
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01-12-17 | Pistons +13.5 v. Warriors | Top | 107-127 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
We have found that fading the Warriors when laying big points is becoming a solid trend. This team is just not playing as well as last year consistently this season and they shouldn’t be giving that type of effort on a nightly basis because look at how that worked out for them last year as they lost to Cleveland in the NBA Finals and looked gassed there at the end of Game 7. The Warriors are just 12-22 ATS this season when laying seven or more points. They are 10-19 ATS when laying double digits. Not only do they not have the same killer instinct as last season but they also are getting their best games from opponents on a nightly basis. Detroit actually played them tough already once this season in a six-point loss in Detroit and they won the meeting before that in Detroit last year. They have covered in three of the last four meetings, and they lost by 14 the last time in GS and were close to covering the spread. We think they come to play again tonight and all indications show they match up well. |
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01-11-17 | Grizzlies v. Thunder OVER 201 | Top | 95-103 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
Three out of the last four meetings in this series have gone over the posted number and a new trend is developing in this series after years of unders when these two met up. If you look at the last four meetings between these teams, the winner in each game has averaged 118 points. So there’s a good chance that the winner here will have more than 110 and even if the game is a blowout there should be enough points to go well over this posted total. The over is 18-8 in the last 26 meetings here in OKC. The over is 6-0 in the Grizzlies last six games on the road and 13-5 in all Grizzlies road games this season. Memphis has topped the century mark in eight of their last nine games and they are trending to the over with seven of their last nine surpassing the posted total. They have scored 110+ in four of their last nine games. So while this team doesn’t average more than 100 in scoring they certainly have been putting the ball in the basket lately. And we don’t have to worry about the OKC offense since they average 110 at home and score more than that on a regular basis. |
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01-10-17 | Cavs v. Jazz UNDER 200.5 | Top | 92-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Bonus Play: Take Utah Plus the Points The under is 13-7 for Utah when they have a total of 195 or higher this season. We like the Jazz tonight and think they will get the job done on defense. The Cavs offensive output goes down considerably in road games compared to what they accomplish at home. Utah doesn’t want to get in a track meet here and they will try and slow the pace down. Utah has one of the best home defenses in the league as they allow a shade over 93 PPG here at home. Utah is finally fully healthy and this is a team we think will be trending upwards. They are coming off a pretty tough road trip but now start a string of 9 or 12 games at home and we think they will get off to a strong start that will begin their upwards momentum. |
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01-09-17 | Pelicans +4 v. Knicks | Top | 110-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
The Pelicans have won and covered the last two meetings in this series, including about a week and a half ago when the Pels scored a 12-point win in New Orleans. The Knicks were overrated to start the season and they have been playing some of their worst basketball of the season in losing seven of eight, and they had to mount a big comeback in their one win during that stretch. New Orleans is 6-3 ATS as a small dog this season and this is one of their best roles. We think they keep this game very close with the chance for the straight up win, and we think this is an inflated line tonight for the home team. |
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01-07-17 | Hornets v. Spurs -11 | Top | 85-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
The Hornets need all the help they can get against the Spurs on the road but they will be without Nic Batum here and he is really one of our favorite players in the league and he’s a very important player for this team. We feel they will slide a bit with him out of the lineup. And they are in tough tonight in San Antonio. Many good teams have trouble covering big lines, but not the Spurs, who are 10-7 ATS when laying seven or more points. We expect that percentage to rise as the season wears on as the Spurs have that killer instinct that a lot of other teams don’t possess. The Spurs are completely healthy and had the night off while Charlotte is playing their third game in four nights in a very tough building for opposing teams. |
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01-06-17 | Rockets v. Magic OVER 223.5 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
Houston is one of the best ATS teams in the league and they are playing a Magic team that has been a solid big underdog on the road but has failed miserably ATS at home with a 5-13-1 ATS mark at home. We aren’t worried about the back-to-back here as the Rockets are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back. They average 121+ points on the second night in these situations! The Magic started off the season playing strong defense but now they have fallen off the cliff in that regard. For every decent game they play defensively they allow 110+ a couple of times, like they have done in three of their last four games, and the Rockets have the type offense that will make them pay. |
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01-05-17 | Hawks v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 99-94 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
Atlanta is on a back-to-back here, on the road no less, while the Pelicans have had two nights off. Rest definitely favors the home team here. New Orleans is hot and they have won and covered in four of their last five games. Their only slip up was an eight-point loss at Cleveland. They have also covered in six of the last eight games in this series. The Pelicans are playing a lot better after a bad early start and with the Hawks on a back-to-back we had this game handicapped at Pelicans -6 so we think there is great value here and we think there’s a good chance they win by more than seven tonight. |
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01-04-17 | Blazers v. Warriors -15.5 | Top | 117-125 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
It’s not often we want to lay this many points in an NBA game, but the Warriors are definitely a team that can cover a line like this, and we think they are primed for a top performance tonight. Golden State has won the last two meetings by 45 and 23 points, respectively, and Damian Lillard was in the lineup for Portland in those games. He has missed four straight games and is doubtful tonight, and we think this one could get very ugly. Portland just stinks on defense and they are the third-worst team in the NBA for points allowed. They can compete against other poor teams but they can’t outscore the Warriors, and they haven’t held Golden State to less than 125 in the last four meetings. With or without Lillard we don’t think they will be able to do anything differently tonight, and since the Warriors haven’t been covering lately this line is manageable as we thought it would be a bit higher but we love it at anything less than 20 as we see this one as a total bloodbath. Golden State has covered in 20 of the last 26 meetings at home in this series! |
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01-03-17 | Jazz v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Boston is 5-0-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series in Boston and 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall. We are thrilled to get them at less than the key NBA betting number of 7 here. The Celtics have covered in seven of their last nine with one push, and we think they match up well in this contest tonight. We expect them to get a comfortable win. This is their first game since 12/30 and they are well rested tonight while Utah has had a pretty busy schedule, and they are not as good on the road as they are at home. We expect the Boston defense to come up big here and the Utah D will keep the Celtics to a reasonable score, but not enough to keep this game close. Both teams trend to the under when the total is 200 or higher. |
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01-02-17 | Thunder v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 94-98 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
The Bucks finished off a 4-game road trip by winning two of three and covering in both wins. We had them last time out against the Bulls and really liked what we saw in a blowout win. The Bucks are 5-1 ATS this season as a small dog (four points or less) and they have thrived in his role we see them in again tonight. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS as a dog of three or less, meaning they tend to struggle in a situation like this. The Thunder are a public team here while the Bucks are a team that bettors don’t like to wager on, and we thought this spread should be closer to 4.5 with a lean to the Bucks at that number so we think there is some nice value here tonight. |
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12-30-16 | Bulls v. Pacers UNDER 201.5 | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
These teams played Monday and the total reached only 175, and that was the 19th under in the last 26 meetings. There’s a good chance that this one will be higher scoring than that game, but we have a lot of wiggle room here since we just don’t see how they can score enough to get this one over the posted number. The Bulls are one of the best under teams in the biz, as they are 21-10-1 for the under this season. Eight of their last nine games have gone under, and they have played strong defense the last couple games. We think that this totals line is about four points too high. |
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12-29-16 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 118-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
Boston has won and covered six of their last seven games and they are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have covered in two of the last three meetings in this series, and we think the Celtics think of this as one of the biggest games of the season while it’s just another game to the Cavs. Boston is one of the better ATS teams at 18-13-1 ATS this season and Cleveland is just average even though they are the better team. But they are always saddled with shaded lines, and we feel that is the case tonight as we had this game handicapped at 4. The Celtics are healthy coming into this game and we think they are primed for a big performance tonight. |
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12-28-16 | Kings v. Blazers | Top | 89-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
The Kings are one of the best ATS teams this season (17-13-1) while the Blazers are one of the worst (12-21). We think those trends will continue on Wednesday. Damian Lillard is doubtful for this game and this team stinks with him in the lineup but without him they are in real trouble, especially against the most consistent Kings team we have seen in a few years. The Kings have won four straight entering this game and they are playing with a ton of confidence right now. The Blazers have dropped 10 of 11 and six straight games. The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings and we expect the Kings to get a pretty easy win here whether Lillard plays or not. |
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12-27-16 | Grizzlies +7 v. Celtics | Top | 103-113 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
These teams played last week and it was a hard-fought OT loss by the Grizzlies. Since that game was so well played on both sides and the Grizzlies took a loss, we think that game will still be on the minds of the Grizzlies in this one and revenge is definitely in play here tonight. We already know the Grizzlies match up well here. And you can add in the fact that Boston just hasn’t been good at covering numbers here at home where they are 4-8 ATS this season so far. Boston is 1-3 ATS when laying 7 or more points this season and we think the Grizzlies will be really tough in this game and they will not only cover but challenge for the win. |
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12-26-16 | Nuggets -3 v. Clippers | Top | 106-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Paul and Griffin are out. Redick is out too. Raymond Felton, CP3’s backup, is sick. This team seems to be staring a freefall with consecutive losses to the Mavs and Lakers, and now they play a team in a back-to-back situation that is better than both of those clubs. This is also their fourth game in five nights and this team is just worn out. You could see it last night in the Lakers loss. Just don’t see how this team is going to regroup and win against a Nuggets team that has had a couple nights off. And this is a good revenge spot for Denver after they got blown out on this same court less than a week ago. They should go all out for a win tonight, and we think that this is a very easy call. |
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12-25-16 | Clippers v. Lakers +7 | Top | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Blake Griffin is out. Chris Paul is questionable with a hamstring issue. If he was able to go you have to think Doc Rivers would hold him out as hamstrings can be tricky and linger and if Paul and Griffin are out for any considerable amount of time then the Clips are in real trouble. But even if Paul plays we still like the Lakers tonight. The Clips used to dominate this series but are now 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings. The Clippers have covered in only two of their last seven games and the bench hasn’t been doing too well lately. With Paul hampered or out the role players have a lot more pressure and they can’t play to the best of their ability without the facilitation of Paul. He makes everyone better. We think this will be close whether CP3 plays or not. But if he is out we think the Clippers are on upset alert. |
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12-23-16 | Spurs -2 v. Blazers | Top | 110-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Portland has really taken a step back this year and they sit at 13-18 on the season after making the playoffs last year and even winning a series. The Spurs suffered a rare loss last night against the Clippers in a game where their shots just didn’t fall. But if they don’t fall for the Spurs one night they probably will the next, and we think this is a great opportunity for them to bounce back. Maybe Pop limits minutes for the starters here. It’s more about the system in San Antonio rather than the players to an extent and they can play well no matter who is on the court and the coach will maximize the potential of those players that are in the lineup. Even though SA is on a back-to-back, this will be the Blazers third game in four nights, so we think it’s a wash pretty much in terms of fatigue. |
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12-22-16 | Spurs -1 v. Clippers | Top | 101-106 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
The Spurs suffered one of their worst losses of the season to these Clippers, in San Antonio, early in the season. That was a 24-point home loss for San Antonio. That is when the Clippers were playing better than anyone in the league and when the Spurs had some struggles at the start of the season. Now the roles have changed as the Clippers have been struggling and now are dealing with the Injury bug as Blake Griffin is out for around a month and the Spurs have looked like one of the best in the NBA again lately and they ended Houston’s long winning streak last time out. We have no doubt they have had this game circled since that bad home loss and we think they dominate tonight. |
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12-21-16 | Grizzlies v. Pistons -6 | Top | 98-86 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
We had the Pistons big on Monday and they played one of the worst games in the NBA this season in a huge blowout loss at Chicago. This team has a lot of ability but they don’t come to play every night. However, we think that this is a great spot for them to show up. For one, that loss was a complete embarrassment and there will be a lot of criticism if they don’t play well here in a very winnable game back at home. The team was called out by Van Gundy in the media, and we think these guys will respond tonight, not to mention that Memphis is on a back-to-back after a really hard-fought game last night vs. Boston that went to OT, so this is a real tough B-2-B against what should be a motivated Pistons team. |
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12-20-16 | Magic v. Heat UNDER 199 | Top | 136-130 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
These are a pair of offensively-challenged teams, and we have a hard time believing they will total 200 or more in this game. Both these teams are in the Bottom 4 in the NBA for points scored. Orlando has been giving up a lot of points lately, but this is an opponent which they can get back to their strong defense against as the Heat average around 97 points per game. The under is 6-1 in the Heat’s last seven games on one day of rest, and that seems to be the sweet spot for them to step up on the defensive end. We also think the Magic will be competitive here in a very winnable game. We think they are the superior team in this matchup and this line looks off to us. |
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12-19-16 | Pistons +3 v. Bulls | Top | 82-113 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
The Bulls have been a money pit for bettors lately as they have covered in only one of their last eight games. They have lost three straight coming into this one and they played horribly in a back-to-back, home-and-home against the Bucks. Normally when a team loses the first game of those types of series they come back strong the next night, but the Bulls lost by 26 in the second stanza. That isn’t a promising sign for a team. The Pistons have lost two straight and this team has been inconsistent, but we feel they match up well here. They are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings and they beat the Bulls pretty soundly in Detroit earlier this month. |
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12-17-16 | Rockets v. Wolves +3.5 | Top | 111-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
Houston has been tearing the NBA apart lately and have been playing as well as any team in the league. This is a bad spot for them. They come in on a back-to-back, for a road game no less, and this will be their third game in four nights. The Timberwolves have had a rare three nights off so they have a huge advantage with rest here. And we think they are facing an inflated number as the bookies are starting to adjust on this Houston team. We are starting to see some positive signs from this Timberwolves team. They have covered in two straight and scored a big road win at Chicago last time out. We think this is a solid “buy low” team right now and we had this game handicapped as a PK so we think there is very nice value tonight for our Top Play. |
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12-16-16 | Pistons v. Wizards UNDER 204 | Top | 108-122 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
This is one of the top under teams in the league (Detroit) against one of the top over teams (Washington) but we like the defense of Detroit to win out tonight and we think that they will win this one and keep the scored down well under 200. Detroit has just been playing incredible defense lately and they have held their last seven opponents under 100, allowing an average of 90.4 points during that stretch. Six of their last nine opponents have scored 91 or less. They have gone under in five of their last six and this team has covered in six of their last nine on the strength of this D. |
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12-15-16 | Bulls v. Bucks -1 | Top | 97-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
We like this young Bucks team. They have some real talent here. They don’t always get it done at the betting window or on the court, but they have a lot of potential if you pick your spots, and we think this is a great spot for them tonight. They have lost three straight so they will play really hard here in order to avoid a four-game slide. They also have a rare national TV showcase in Milwaukee and will want to take advantage. The Bulls are on TNT all the time so this is just another game. But for Milwaukee this will be a big deal and they already have a great home-court advantage. The Bucks are 3-1 ATS as a small favorite this season. |
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12-14-16 | Clippers -8.5 v. Magic | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
We think that this is a real tough spot for the Magic. They are coming in on a back-to-back after a lot of running and gunning against Atlanta last night in one of the highest scoring games of the season (we had the under there, whoops on that one!). Orlando hasn’t been good on back-to-backs as they are 2-3 ATS and they allow well over their season average on defense. A fatigued team that hasn’t been playing good defense is not a good situation for the home team tonight as the Clippers are pretty well rested having played only two games in the last six nights. Orlando has allowed 116 or more in four of their last five games. This team was pretty good defensively earlier in the season but they haven’t been lately while their offense has been playing better so the over is an easy call here too. But the Clippers can probably pick their score on offense and with the way Orlando has been protecting the basket and with them being on a back-to-back they can probably pick their score tonight. |
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12-13-16 | Magic v. Hawks UNDER 204 | Top | 131-120 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Four of the last six meetings in this series have gone under the posted number. We feel as if this number is inflated a bit. The Magic were on a big under run but they haven’t played strong defense lately and have allowed some points to good offensive teams. And their offense has benefited from some pace. But Atlanta is one of the top teams for defensive efficiency and the Magic are a Top 6 team for points allowed and we think there is a good chance that this number will fall well below the point total. Both teams have had some time off and both should be rested to play some strong D tonight. |
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12-10-16 | Warriors -11.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 89-110 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
Golden State has covered six of the last seven meetings in this series. We know the Warriors think of Memphis as a rival and we expect their best effort here. The Grizzlies have been playing a lot better than we expected this year but this team is still down from what we have seen in the past from this club. We think the bottom will fall out soon and that they will start dropping a lot of games. This one sure looks like a mismatch to us. The Warriors are starting to look like the team that was best ATS in the NBA last season and they are well rested after Friday off and we don’t see any problems for them here. Look at who Memphis has played in their current 5-game winning streak: Orlando, LA Lakers, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Portland. They face a big step up in competition tonight. |
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12-09-16 | Rockets v. Thunder | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
We just really like the Rockets this year and think they are clearly the better team in this matchup. This team is among the best betting teams in the NBA this season at 15-7 ATS, and the reason they are so good at covering is taking care of business in games like this, which they have done many times this season. Houston has also owned this series ATS, covering in seven straight meetings. There are some teams in the NBA that just cover almost automatically against certain opponents, and we think that this is a very weak number for Friday as we had this line at Houston -4.5. OKC is getting all the hype because of Russell Westbrook and his awesome Triple Double run, but Houston is the more complete team and we think they continue their road success tonight where they have as many wins as the Thunder so at home (9-5 on the road this season). |
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12-08-16 | Spurs v. Bulls +4.5 | Top | 91-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
The Bulls have lost three straight but they just went through a brutal stretch of four games in five nights. But they have had a night of rest here and we think that will do them wonders. The Spurs have yet to lose a game on the road this season. That isn’t going to last, and we think they could slip up here. The Spurs have been playing great basketball, but they have covered only one of their last five games, which tells us that their lines are becoming too inflated. We had this game handicapped at PK with a lean to Chicago, so great value here tonight. Chicago is a solid 5-3 ATS at home this season and they have been a solid ATS team at 12-9 despite a recent ATS slide. But we think they will be hyped for this game and play their best game in awhile and we think they have a great chance for the straight up win here. They have covered in three of the last four meetings and they won the last two in Chicago. |
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12-08-16 | Warriors v. Jazz +5.5 | Top | 106-99 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
We just think that this is a bad spot for the Warriors on Thursday night. They are coming off a Wednesday game against the Clippers, their most hated rival. They played a real strong game against the Clippers last night and now they travel here to a Utah team that will be going all out for the win and had the night off Wednesday. This line looks inflated to us, like most of the Warriors lines are, and we think this might be a spot for a slip up after an intense effort at Staples Center on Wednesday night. You also have to wonder why Steve Kerr kept the starters in so long last night when the game was well in hand. We think that will hurt the visitors tonight against a rested team. Utah played the Warriors tough in Utah last year and we expect the same kind of effort tonight. |
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12-07-16 | Warriors -4 v. Clippers | Top | 115-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
We like the Clippers this season and have taken them a lot so far during our hot start to the season. But we still think the Warriors are a lot better team and it’s real rare to get them with this low of points as we see this line here tonight. These teams don’t like each other. Everyone is saying this season how maybe the Clips have supplanted the Warriors as the top team in the west and how they are the only team with the capabilities to beat Golden State in the playoffs. Golden State really enjoys beating up on the Clippers without any extra motivation, but give this team a chip to put on their shoulder and we think their A Game will come out tonight. They always seem to give their best effort against LAC and they really have the ability to get into their heads. Yes, the Clippers bench is better than that of the Warriors but we still think the starters for Golden State are much better and in better form right now as well. The Clips have two more losses at home than the Warriors do on the road. The Clippers haven’t covered in four straight here at Staples Center. The Warriors have won six straight in this series and we think they will be very motivated tonight, and if both teams bring their A Games we think Golden State covers this number pretty easily. |
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12-06-16 | Bulls v. Pistons -6 | Top | 91-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
The Bulls are a very average 6-6 away from home this season while the Pistons have been excellent on their home court at 7-3. The Bulls are slumping right now. They got blown out in Dallas and then laid an egg last night as a decent favorite at home to Portland. This will be their fourth game in five nights and a back-to-back, not a good recipe for a slumping team to get back on the winning track. Detroit has won five of their last seven and they have covered in all the wins. They have also played well against the Bulls, covering in six of the last seven meetings between these clubs. We think that this spread is way too low. |
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12-03-16 | Heat +6.5 v. Blazers | Top | 92-99 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Portland is a very public play tonight but we will side with the sportsbooks in this one. The Blazers can score, but they can’t defend. But defense is what Miami does so well, and the Heat will be able to keep this one within striking distance on the strength of their defense. The Heat have actually scored 100+ in four straight games, so we think they can hang offensively here tonight. The same probably can’t be said for the Blazers defense. This Portland team is just not very good right now and they have covered in just three of their last 10 games. We expect a very close game here, and either way we should be fine getting this many points. |
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12-02-16 | Magic v. 76ers OVER 196 | Top | 105-88 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
We have been betting a lot of Orlando unders lately as they have been playing strong defense, but we are going the other way here on Friday. Defense takes a lot of effort, while offense comes more naturally. This will be Orlando’s third game in four nights and they are on a back-to-back. They played a hard-fought game last night in Memphis and lost in the final seconds. That is after winning in San Antonio on Tuesday. We don’t expect them to step up on defense in this situation after those two games. They allowed 30 points in the fourth quarter to the Grizzlies last night, and we think that poor defensive effort could continue here on Friday. The Sixers have one of the worst defenses in the league. They have held an opponent to under 100 only once this season. We don’t see how they hold the Magic under the century mark here as that is a rare feat for Philly. And since the Sixers are favored that means they will probably get over 100 here as well. These teams already played about a month ago and the score totaled 204. That is close to the number we had this game handicapped at, so we think there is very nice value here on Friday for this total. |
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12-01-16 | Clippers +4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 113-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
The Clippers have lost three straight, including a blowout loss at Indiana and an inexplicable OT loss at Brooklyn last time out. We just think that this team had a little loss of focus but we think this is a great spot for them to bounce back, and we still think that this is one of the best teams in the NBA right now. They should be as focused as ever to avoid a four-game losing streak and get back on track. We think this is a high priority game for LA while this is just another big TV game for the Cavs. All media reports indicate LA is in a good mental state despite the losses, and Blake Griffin will be fresh here since he sat out the Brooklyn loss for rest. Even after dropping three straight ATS the Clippers are still 10-9 ATS, a much better mark than the Cavs at 6-9-1. Doc Rivers went ballistic after a tech in the Brooklyn game and was ejected. He ripped into his team in the press afterwards. We think the squad will respond with an inspired effort here. We had this game at PK with a lean to the Clippers at that number, so we think getting this many points adds a lot of value as we see the road team getting the win. |
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11-30-16 | Hawks v. Suns +5.5 | Top | 107-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
The Suns have been great in this series, covering in 11 of the last 15 matchups and in five of the last seven in Phoenix. The Hawks have not played well on this long road trip, having lost three of four, and this is the last game of the trip and no doubt they will be thinking of home. This is just a bad spot for the road team and they are laying too many points here. The Suns have been a feisty club at 10-8 ATS this season. They have been playing better than oddsmaker expectations and they have had two nights off heading into this contest while the Hawks will be playing their third game in four nights. A lot of signs here pointing to a Suns cover, not to mention that this line is inflated in the first place because the Hawks are the “name” team here while no one but sharps want to bet on the Suns. |
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11-29-16 | Magic v. Spurs UNDER 195.5 | Top | 95-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
These are two of the Top 7 defensive teams in the league for points allowed and we don’t see the Magic being able to score their share of points to get this one over the posted number tonight. The Magic are second only to Dallas for points scored per game and they are dead last in field goal percentage. They have held seven of their last nine opponents to 94 or less on defense and we feel after a bad defensive effort last time out against Milwaukee that they will play better on that end here. No matter, we don’t think their offense will do anything here and we think the Spurs can get their points if Orlando doesn’t step up on D and have this one still fall under the posted number. |
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11-28-16 | Hornets -1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 104-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Charlotte has won two of the last three meetings and they have covered in three of the last four. They have revenge here as the Grizzlies came into Charlotte last week and won by 15. The game was out of hand early and we have no doubt the Hornets want to make up for that bad performance. The Hornets have had a tough schedule lately and have lost a couple OT games, but this team is much better than the Grizzlies and we think they should be favored by 4.5 or 5.0 in this matchup. Both teams are somewhat banged up on this matchup but the Hornets should get Nic Batum back tonight, and he will give the Hornets a shot in the arm. |
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11-27-16 | Bucks v. Magic UNDER 196.5 | Top | 104-96 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
The last two meetings in this series have gone under the posted number, including one last week where the total barely cracked 180. Both teams are pretty bad on offense and both are trending to the under. The Bucks have gone over only once in their last six games. Same for the Magic. Orlando has been playing really good defense lately. Not one of their last six opponents has scored more than 94 points, and three of those opponents wound up in the 80s. The bookies are slow to adjust these Orlando totals and we will strike here again on Sunday. |
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11-26-16 | Knicks v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 102-107 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
We leaned Charlotte last night when these teams met up in New York and we are glad we didn’t pull the trigger as they lost in OT. Revenge is an overrated handicapping factor in the NBA, but it does come into play at certain times, and these back-to-back, home-and-home situations are definitely one of those where it does. When a team loses the night before then they play again, especially back at home, the team that lost before is normally almost an automatic play for us. And the line is just what we expected here for us to pull the trigger on the Hornets for a comfortable win. |
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11-25-16 | Raptors v. Bucks +3.5 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
The Bucks have had three nights of rest coming into this one and we think that will make all the difference tonight. Toronto is on the last game of a 5-game road trip and they have to be thinking more about home tonight than this opponent, and we don’t think they will give max effort in this game. This will be their fourth game in six nights and the last one on the road, and we don’t think this is a good spot for them. They have lost four of six overall and needed OT to get by Denver, so they are not in the best form right now. Milwaukee has been playing well at home with a 5-3 SU record, and we think they will challenge for the win here tonight as well. |
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11-23-16 | Heat v. Pistons UNDER 188.5 | Top | 84-107 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
We just think that this is too many points for the Pistons to be laying against any team. Miami is a live underdog here on Thanksgiving Eve. And we think this will be a hard-fought defensive battle. Both of these teams are among the tops in the league for points allowed and both offenses leave something to be desired. We expected this total to be in the low 180s and there is a lot of value here in the high 180s. And the lower the total goes the more valuable the points are for the underdog, and that is definitely the case tonight here in Detroit. The under has cashed in four straight meetings and Detroit is 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. |
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11-22-16 | Blazers +2 v. Knicks | Top | 103-107 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
Portland has won and covered in two of the last three meetings and they have covered in six of the last eight in this series. Portland hasn’t covered many lines lately, but they got on track last time out with a win and cover at Brooklyn. They don’t have any travel issues here, going across town to play in MSG against the Knicks. Since the Blazers failed to cover in a string of games the bookies adjusted the total for this team too much. We had them as a slight favorite here and expect them to win this game straight out. |
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11-21-16 | Celtics v. Wolves +1.5 | Top | 99-93 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
The Timberwolves have been a bit up and down this season but we are sticking with them because we think this team will be pretty good ATS when all is said and done. We think this is a very winnable game for them tonight. They have won and covered in the last four meetings against Boston at home. This will be the third game in four nights for the Celtics, and after playing Golden State and Detroit this is probably a letdown spot against a out-of-conference opponent that isn’t a superpower. The Wolves have pretty much been alternating wins and losses lately and they are coming off a real bad performance against Memphis and we think this is a great spot for them to bounce back. |
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11-20-16 | Jazz v. Nuggets UNDER 199 | Top | 91-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
Utah has won five in a row and six of seven in this series. We think that trend continues here on Sunday. Utah is 3-0 on the road against sub-.500 teams and we expect them to challenge for the straight up win tonight. We have taken Denver a few times this season as a dog but we just don’t like them right now in the favorites role and we think the Jazz will go all out to win this game as they have dropped three straight, but all those games were tougher than the one they will face tonight. Defense gets the job done for Utah tonight! |
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11-19-16 | Mavs v. Magic UNDER 179 | Top | 87-95 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
These are the two worst offensive teams in the NBA, and we had this low total handicapped much lower than the number the bookies released. Bookies are scared to post totals that are too low, and in this case they didn’t go low enough. Dallas is really struggling on offense. They have scored less than 80 points on average in their last four games and come in on a back-to-back after scoring only 64 at home to Memphis last night. The Mavs will be without Deron Williams and Dirk Nowitzki again tonight, and there just aren’t many scorers on this shorthanded team right now. They are shooting only 41.8 percent from the field this season, the second-worst mark in the NBA. The worst? That would be Orlando at 40.8. Since both teams struggle to score that must concentrate on defense. And both teams have been solid in that regard. Orlando has allowed 96.1 points per 100 possessions in their last four games, one of the best marks in the league. Three of their last four opponents have scored less than 90 and they held their last two opponents to less than 40 percent shooting from the field. Dallas is in the Top 10 for points allowed this season and the defense has been excellent since the offense has sputtered. |
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11-18-16 | Clippers v. Kings OVER 204 | Top | 121-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
These games are always high scoring between these two teams and there hasn’t been a matchup under 210 since 2014! Yes, the Clippers have the best defense so far this season, but there have been cracks lately as they gave up 111 to Memphis last time out and they have allowed 105 or more in three of their last four. The Clips average 109 PPG on offense and the Sacramento defense gives up 104+ per game. The Clippers should get their points. The Clippers defense hasn’t been as good on the road as at home, and away from Staples they allow nearly 100 PPG. The Kings scored 105 last time out in this same building against a strong San Antonio defense, and we think both teams get above the century mark here in a close game on Friday. |
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11-17-16 | Bucks v. Heat UNDER 200 | Top | 73-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Miami is playing some of the best defense in the league and you have to look hard at the under in any matchup where the total is around 200. Only two opponents this season have reached the century mark against them. They don’t often score 100 on offense, either, and five of their last six games have gone under the posted number. We like this game to as well. The Bucks aren’t bad defensively themselves and we think they will hold Miami to a manageable score and don’t see them doing much on the offensive end. |
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11-15-16 | Nets +7 v. Lakers | Top | 118-125 | Push | 0 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
We went against Brooklyn last night and the Clippers rolled, but we are going to back them tonight here on Tuesday. They face a much lesser opponent tonight and this team has been very good ATS this season at 7-3 ATS. The Lakers have been strong as an underdog but we don’t like them laying a lot of points like this as while they are an improved team this squad is not ready for favorite status. This back-to-back situation isn’t that bad for the Nets as they will be playing in the same building as they did last night and this team is young so fatigue should not be a factor. Brooklyn has been better than expected this season and we expect them to keep this game close tonight. |
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11-14-16 | Nets v. Clippers -14.5 | Top | 95-127 | Win | 102 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
The Clippers look like the best team in the NBA so far this season and they are looking like the Warriors did last season, just punishing opponents. We don’t see this team taking a club like Brooklyn for granted as they have learned a lot of lessons about this in the last couple of years and they know that this season they have the best squad the franchise has ever had and every game is important. LA has the best defense in the league and Brooklyn one of the worst, and even though this Nets team is 4-5 on the season they have had a pretty easy schedule. But make no mistake this is one of the five worst teams in the NBA. The Clippers have shown the ability to blow good teams out of the water but we think they should win this game by 20+. |
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11-13-16 | Hornets +8 v. Cavs | Top | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
This Hornets team is very under the radar but they have been great so far this season at 6-2, including a 3-0 mark on the road. The Cavs are 7-1 but they are only 3-5 ATS as this team is very often shaded by the oddsmakers. The public isn’t going to tough the Hornets here and the oddsmakers know that so they have to add points to the line, and we think this line should be closer to 6. Not a ton of extra value here but enough to make this a play, and we expect a close game here as the Cavs now have an even bigger bullseye on their back after winning it all last year and they will get the best from most opponents. Cleveland is 1-3 ATS at home against above-.500 teams, which just goes to show that they are overvalued in this spot. |
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11-12-16 | Clippers v. Wolves +5.5 | Top | 119-105 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
We think this is a bad spot for the Clippers coming off a hard-fought, down-to-the-wire battle against Oklahoma City last night. That’s a tough back to back to play in as the Thunder are a big, physical team. The Clippers have covered in only one of the last four meetings. The Wolves have gotten off to a slow start this season but this team is much improved this year. They will put it all together, and this would be a statement win for them. We think they bring their best game tonight, and they match up well with Los Angeles. They are coming off a confidence-building road win last time out and have had two days off to rest and prepare for this game. We think they have a very good chance for the straight up win here and we think it will be a very close game regardless. |
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11-11-16 | Clippers -3 v. Thunder | Top | 110-108 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 34 m | Show |
The Clippers are off to their best start in franchise history and right now this looks like hands down the best team in the NBA. They look like Golden State did last season. They are 7-1 both SU and ATS, and their one loss this season was to these Thunder in LA last week. This was just an off game from the Clippers and not a signal that the Thunder are the better team. LA shot less than 40 percent from the field in that game and the shots just weren’t falling. Despite that off game they were still in the game until the final seconds. Outside of the Clippers win and a blowout loss to Golden State the Thunder have had a pretty easy schedule up until Wednesday when they were pretty much exposed by the Raptors at home in a 10-point loss. We just don’t think that this team is as good as they have looked so far, and the Clippers will want revenge in this game for the one blemish on their record. We had this game handicapped at Clippers -7, so we think there is some great value here. LA has one their last three games by an average of 29 points, and they made the Blazers, a very good team, look foolish last time out. They are playing by far the best defense in the league in allowing around 88 points per game. This team is one of the deepest in the league now with a retooled bench, and everyone seems to be on the same page. Doc Rivers stressed the importance of getting off to a fast start this season since by the start of December they were in such a division hole that they would never be able to recover from. Looks like the players have listened, and we just don’t see them losing to what we consider a mediocre Thunder team twice in the same month. |
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11-10-16 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 112-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
The Pelicans are on the last game of a three-game road trip tonight. They have a chance to set the franchise record for losses to start a season tonight. We think they give an all-out effort to avoid that tonight. This team has been bad, but they still have some talent and also a guy named Anthony Davis, one of the NBA’s best players and definitely the best player on the court here tonight. This team will probably not be very good this season but they will still win a bunch of games and they won’t be kept out of the winless column for long. This is the most winnable game on this road trip and the Pelicans had two OT losses before this trip so they have been close to getting that first win. The Bucks scored 74 points (in regulation) last time out in their loss at Dallas and we think that current bad offensive form could translate into a Pelicans win tonight. |
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11-09-16 | Blazers +9.5 v. Clippers | Top | 80-111 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
We have backed the Clippers a lot this young season and we said we expected a hot start and that is just what happened as they have their best start in franchise history at 6-1 and are climbing up everyone’s power rankings. We think this team is going to be a solid bet all season. However, we do think this line is too large on Wednesday for the home team. These teams met in the Clippers season opener and LA won by eight in Portland but the game was tied heading into the fourth quarter and that loss sets up a revenge spot here for the Blazers. The Clips have the best scoring defense in the league but the Blazers were able to put points on the board against them (only team to eclipse the century mark) and we think they will be able to put enough points on the board to keep this one close. |
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11-08-16 | Mavs +5 v. Lakers | Top | 109-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
So we have been on the Lakers quite a bit this season and that’s been a major reason for our hot start. But it doesn’t take long for the numbers to get inflated with this team when they play well. And that is the case tonight against a team that has owned them with 10 straight wins against the Lakers, six coming by double digits. This is a young team and they are well coached now, but we still think that maybe it’s too early for them to be lined like this against a team like Dallas, even though the Mavericks haven’t started off the season well. The Lakers couldn’t score on the Mavs last season and Dallas held them under 90 points, on average, in the three-game sweep. We think their defense will get the job done tonight again. |
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11-07-16 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 222.5 | Top | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
These two teams plated early in the season and the total reached 236. But this totals number is even lower than the one for that game, and that is very telling. We think that this game will be much lower scoring. New Orleans has played a couple OT games lately that have fattened their scoring average but this team is struggling on the offensive end. The Pelicans shot well and scored a lot in that early-season game but we don’t think they will have the same kind of luck tonight. The Warriors have been better defensively since that game and we think they can easily keep the Pels under 100 tonight and we think this game will be a blowout, which bodes well for the under. The under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 games when these teams have played in the Bay Area and we think that trend will continue with the under on Monday. |
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11-06-16 | Suns v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Both of these teams have been cash cows so far this season with the Suns at 4-2 ATS and the Lakers at 5-1 ATS. The Suns are playing well but we have to go with the home team here and we expected this line to be higher and there is some very nice line value here. The Lakers have had a little tougher schedule this season and this team just dominated the Golden State Warriors last time out and they are playing with a lot of confidence right now. Their success this season so far just shows how important coaching is in the NBA and we think this line is short tonight. |
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11-05-16 | Cavs v. 76ers +12 | Top | 102-101 | Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
When the Sixers play the Cavs it’s like their own little version of the NBA Finals and they seem to elevate their game big time against this opponent. They have covered in six of the last seven meetings in this series. Although they have only won one of those matchups, this is the best Philly team we have seen during that stretch and the line is not much different than what we have dealt with in the past. The Cavs have looked great to start the season but this team is overvalued by the oddsmakers as is indicated by their 2-3 ATS record despite their 5-0 SU record. This will only be their second road game this season. This is one of the biggest home games for Philly this year and we think these young guys give a great effort here in a close game. |
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11-04-16 | Suns v. Pelicans -3 | Top | 112-111 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
The Pelicans are 0-5 on the season and the spreads just keep getting better for this team and this squad is starting to see some real value. If this game was on opening night the Pelicans may be a 8-point favorite. But Phoenix has been more competitive than expected and the Pelicans have yet to win a game, therefore we have a slim line here. But make no mistake the Pelicans are a lot better of a team than the Suns and Phoenix is only 1-4 so even though they have played well they are not playing well enough to warrant this kind of spread on the road. This line tells me these teams would be about pickem on a neutral floor, and with Anthony Davis being one of the NBA’s best we think the Pels have a decided edge. |
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11-03-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -10.5 | Top | 96-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
In this matchup of Durant vs. Westbrook the Warriors have a huge edge. The Thunder come in on a back-to-back after a hard-fought win at the Clippers on Wednesday and now they face an even tougher test here on Thursday. Both these star players want to win this game, but Westbrook expended a lot of energy last night against LA and Durant has a much better supporting cast. The Warriors have an us-against-the-world mentality and I have a feeling that the rest of the Warriors want this game for Durant even more than Durant does. We expect the best performance of the year from Golden State here, and this one should be a blowout. |
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11-02-16 | Thunder v. Clippers -7 | Top | 85-83 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
This is another great spot for the Clippers, who we are very high on entering the season. They are 3-0 SU and ATS this season thus far. Coach Doc Rivers has emphasized a fast start this season and this team is really looking better than they have at any point early-season in the Blake Griffin era. This is a horrible spot for OKC. They play the Warriors on national TV tomorrow. Russell Westbrook and his massive ego are probably putting in all their chips on that game and could care less about this one. We don’t expect max effort here. All anyone ever asks Westbook is about Durant leaving to greener pastures. You can tell by his responses that he is really bothered by this. He will give it his all on Thursday but on Wednesday this is a real look-ahead spot for the visitors. |
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11-01-16 | Bucks +3.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 117-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
Just don’t like this New Orleans team right now and besides Anthony Davis this team doesn’t offer much in terms of scoring. Yes, Davis is leading the league in points per game but the team has not had any success on the floor. This team is massively overrated by the oddsmakers and the general betting public right now and we think the Bucks have a great chance to score a road win here, especially if they can focus on slowing down Davis and playing team basketball. This really seems like a line set to attract New Orleans money but we think the underdog is the clear play here. |
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10-31-16 | Suns v. Clippers -10.5 | Top | 98-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Both teams are coming into this one on back-to-backs but the Clippers were at home yesterday also so they are in a better position with no travel. Phoenix also played Golden State on Sunday at home and put up a pretty good effort in a six-point loss and we think this is a letdown spot for them after that game, one they surely wanted more than this one. The Clippers are underrated to start the season. Everyone remembers the playoff exits and frustrations with this team but no one remembers how good this team can be, and coach Doc Rivers has emphasized a fast start this year as this team has been notoriously slow to start. But they have looked great so far and look to be in midseason form, and we expect them to dominate this much lesser opponent tonight. |
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10-29-16 | Magic +11 v. Cavs | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
Orlando hasn’t looked very good to open the season but you can’t judge a team by just two games and we expect them to give the Cavs their best shot tonight. Cleveland is coming in on a back-to-back after a hard-fought game against rival Toronto last night and now they face a much lesser opponent and we think this is a prime letdown spot for them tonight. This team is often overvalued by the oddsmakers but that is very evident here with this huge number on the back-to-back. We think Frank Vogel will have his team ready tonight and we think Orlando is a solid value play. |
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10-28-16 | Lakers v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 89-96 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
We went against the Jazz in their first game (at Portland) and went with the Lakers at home in Game 1 (against Houston) and both picks cashed. Now we are looking the other direction. Los Angeles got the win in Luke Walton’s coaching debut but they played a Rockets team that doesn’t play any defense and that fits into their style of play. Tonight they face one of the best defensive teams in the league and points won’t be easy to come by and this will be a new style for the Lakers young guys to play. We hope Derrick Favors is back for Utah tonight, but even if he isn’t the Jazz should have no problem getting the double-digit win in their home opener. They have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA and there is a lot of excitement in Utah this season and the crowd will be rocking. And Utah really needs a big win here as they have road games against the Clippers and Spurs on deck in their next two games so a 0-4 start is definitely a possibility if they don’t take this game very seriously tonight. Utah has covered in four of five meetings and three of those were double-digit blowouts. The two games in Utah last year were absolute massacres (48 and 27 points) and we think they will take care of business again in a big way. |
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10-27-16 | Clippers -2 v. Blazers | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Doc Rivers, Clippers coach, has emphasized all preseason how Los Angeles needs to get off to a fast start this year. They haven’t done that the last couple years and that has cost them playoff seeding and a tough road in the playoffs. With the Super Team in Golden State in the division the Clippers need to be very focused this season to keep par. They were out of the division race last season after the first month of the season. They really need the No. 2 seed this year in the playoffs to avoid the Warriors for as long as possible, and they need to avoid a slow start to achieve that. This is a major revenge spot for the Clippers after losing to the Blazers in the playoffs last season. LA was in total control in that series before they lost Blake Griffin and Chris Paul to injury. We think they will give max effort here. Portland got a win in their opener against Utah but that game was closer than it looked and they needed a rally to get by the injured Jazz. That type of effort won’t be enough tonight against what should be a very motivated Clippers team whose core has been together for a long time now. |
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10-26-16 | Wolves +1.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Minnesota has played well in this series, covering six of the last eight meetings. And this Minnesota club is the best version we have seen during that time. This team is going to be really good this year and they have a great shot to make the playoffs. They should come into this season opener anxious to get the season off to a strong start. Memphis is a team that seems to be trending downward. Their championship window has closed and this should be another transitional year for this club. The Grizzlies are also very banged up heading into the new season. Minnesota coach Tom Thibodeau will want to get off to a fast start with his young, energetic team, and the Wolves were a solid bet on the road last season and we expect them to notch a win in the season opener tonight. |
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10-25-16 | Jazz v. Blazers -5 | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
We like Portland a lot and had this game handicapped at 8.5 so we think there is some nice value on opening night. The Jazz are real banged up to start the season and that is not a good sign on the road, where the Jazz have traditionally struggled in the past. The Blazers have won and covered both of the last two meetings here at home and they have covered in three of four in this series. Leading scorer Gorgon Hayward will be out here and Derrick Favors might miss the game as well. The team just doesn’t seem very confident right now with these injuries and working some new players in the mix. The Blazers will want to get off to a strong start here in front of the home fans, and they have the better team on the floor at this point of the season. We just expect a real strong showing from the home team and Damian Lillard will be the best player on the court tonight and lead his team to a comfortable win on the home court. |
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06-19-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 93-89 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 16 m | Show |
This series has played out pretty much to a T how we thought it would and we always thought that Golden State would end up winning this thing so that is our strong side play for Game 7 on Sunday. A team is never as bad as their last bad game, and we think the Warriors will have a great rebound game here. They have one of the best home-court advantages in pro sports and the crowd will be rocking here for Game 7. In Game 6 we predicted the refs would play a big part in the game and that ended up being the case. But Cleveland didn’t really need the refs as they won the game fair and square. Golden State, however, did a good job at coming back from a big early deficit and they just kind of fell apart there at the end of the game. The game was closer to us than the final score indicated and the Warriors were in early foul trouble that threw them off their game. But we would have been happy with anything under 8 for Game 7 and we were thrilled when we saw the opening line. We really like the Warriors all the way up to double digits and think they should win this game pretty easily. The Warriors have the better team and better coach, and they will find a way to make adjustments and get the job done. Just as we said in our Game 6 writeup, we didn’t see the Warriors winning two of three in Cleveland and we just don’t see the Cavs winning two in a row in Golden State. The Warriors haven’t lost three in a row all season and Curry and company will be very motivated here and the cream will rise to the top on Sunday and the seserving team will come away with the trophy. |
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06-16-16 | Warriors v. Cavs -2 | Top | 101-115 | Win | 100 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
The Cavs grabbed the momentum in this series with a Game 5 win in the Bay Area. The Warriors were without Draymond Green in that one and he will be back here. But that was a pretty dominant win and we’re not so sure that Green would have made a difference there. The Warriors are a great team – one of the best in NBA history. But most of their damage has been done at home, and they now have 12 road losses on the season. Cleveland has lost only nine games at home. We just don’t see the Warriors winning two of three in Cleveland, and Cleveland really seems to have found their groove in this series. They played excellent defense in Game 5, and it was a bit disconcerting to see the Warriors basically give up at the end of that game when things began to look out of reach for a comeback. Also, even though the NBA is not “rigged” like a lot of people thing, certain stars and teams get preferential treatment, especially at home. The NBA stands to make millions upon millions if this series goes to Game 7, and with two of the three biggest stars in the game competing on this stage and with how compelling this series has been you know the league really wants this one to go to Game 7. So we are pretty sure the Cavs will get preferential treatment from the refs if this game is close, and even if a couple extra calls go their way that can make a huge difference in a close game. Game 5 is a crucial one for teams up 3-1 to close the series out, especially on their home court. We saw some examples of this recently with the Rockets coming back from 3-1 against the Clippers after LA blew Game 5. And in these same playoffs we saw the Warriors recapture the momentum against the Thunder by winning Game 5 to come back and win their series in seven games. Golden State really put themselves in a bad position by not taking care of business in Game 5. We expect this series to be pushed to Game 7 and think the Cavs are the only way to play this one. |
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06-13-16 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 204.5 | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Love the over here for Game 5, which will likely be the final game of the NBA season unless the Cavs can pull the upset here. But we lean Golden State at the line but would like them a lot more if Green was in the lineup tonight. However, we think both offenses will get their points tonight and Golden State has the chance to put up a huge score if the offense is clicking, and there is no reason to think it can’t here at home. Game 4, even though it went under, saw both teams score well on offense. This one barely stayed under the total. The three other games were blowouts and that is what contributed to the low totals. Golden State will be very motivated to finish things out here and we think they can score around their home season average tonight. If the offense is really clicking they could get a lot more. Cleveland has played better offensively after the first two games in this series and now they are in the flow of this series and we don’t expect the offense to fall flat like it did in Games 1 and 2. Also having Green out of the lineup hurts the Golden State defense (more than the offense, in our opinion) and the total was adjusted downwards instead of upwards, where it should have been adjusted. All in all this is the lowest total of the series thus far and we think this one has a very good chance to go over 210 tonight. |
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06-10-16 | Warriors +2 v. Cavs | Top | 108-97 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
We always thought that the Cavs would win one game at home in this series and that’s why we stayed away from the side in Game 3 and went with the total for our big play. But now that the Cavs got that win out of the way we think there’s a great chance that the Warriors take this game and put the Cavs on the brink of elimination here. The Warriors have lost consecutive games only once this season, last series against Oklahoma City, and we just don’t see two bad games in a row from them. They are the better team in our eyes even though this team has been prone to some off games late in the season and in the playoffs like we saw in Game 3 of these finals. Curry has not done much in this series and we think it’s very doubtful that he doesn’t go off for a big night and very soon. And there’s no reason it can’t happen here in Game 4. His slumps don’t last long and this guy lives for the big stage like this. This is one of the best-coached teams in the league (something that can’t be said for Cleveland) so the Warriors have the players and coaching to bounce back from a bad-looking loss like Game 3 and we think they will make the necessary adjustments to play a much more competitive game. Love should be back here for Cleveland and he has been very ineffective this whole series and we don’t think it’s a coincidence that the team thrived with him out of the lineup in Game 3 and until he shows he can play a lot better under the major spotlight we have to think he might hold the team back. We had this line at Warriors -2.5 for this game based on our ratings and we have to feel that they can pull it out and getting the extra points here just helps us immensely in case there is a last-second winning shot at the end of the game for the Cavs. But overall we think the Warriors will step up the defense and you won’t see near as much success out of Cleveland for Game 4 on the offensive end. We think the Warriors offense will wake up here (this team seems to respond well to a wakeup call as they did when going down to OKC 3-1 in that series). Take the Warriors plus the points for Game 4. |
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06-08-16 | Warriors v. Cavs OVER 205 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
The Warriors held the Cavaliers to an average of only 83 points in Games 1 and 2 and that is a big reason why the totals went well under the posted number and why we have a big adjustment here for Game 3. The Warriors have done their part for the totals for sure but the Cavs haven’t. But we think this will be a different game. Cleveland is back at home here and in desperation mode and we think they will play much better tonight. We expect their offense to come alive here on the home court where they have played so well in these playoffs. This line has also been adjusted down because of Kevin Love’s questionable status for this game after getting an elbow to the head in Game 2. But we don’t think this will affect the total at all whether he plays or not. He has pretty much been ineffective in this series and maybe if he is out that is better for the Cavs as other players that are playing better can get some more shots. We think this will be a closer game and because Games 1 and 2 were blowouts that is a big reason for the low totals. We think this one will be a close game. We don’t think the Cavs can so anything to slow down the Golden State offense as it is in a groove right now and they have been making it look easy. But we think the Cleveland offense will play much better here. We have the lowest total thus far in the series and we think there is a good chance that this is the highest-scoring game in the series. |
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06-05-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 77-110 | Win | 100 | 56 h 53 m | Show |
We were pretty sure that the Warriors were a solid and strong favorite coming into this series and their Game 1 domination just solidified our stance. The west is just so much stronger than the east and we think the Warriors faced their toughest test in the Western Conference Finals in their win over Oklahoma City, a team that was playing as well as any team in the league at the time. Cleveland was a trendy pick for an upset in this series, but we just don’t see it. Yes, they are healthier than last season. Yes, they have looked awesome in the playoffs so far. But besides LeBron what have the core players on this team done in the past? Irving and Love had absolutely no success before they linked up with LeBron and that just goes to show us that these guys aren’t true leaders. Look at DeMarcus Cousins in Sacramento. He is the type of player that should lead his team to the playoffs every year. But he always comes up short. We put these guys from Cleveland in the same category until they prove us wrong. Curry and Thompson could not get anything going in Game 1 and the Warriors still recorded a blowout. Doubt those guys are going to be held in check for two straight games at home. There are two nights off before this game and that really benefits the home team here and we see them rolling again in this one by 10+ points. You would expect that the bookies would make this line about 5 if they thought Cleveland had a chance to play better in Game 2 so we think it’s very telling that they made this line larger than the Game 1 number and that tells us the bookies are confident in the Warriors as well. |
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06-02-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -6 | Top | 89-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
While we think this will be a long series and there will certainly be spots to go with Cleveland later in the series we think the Warriors are clearly the play in Game 1. With a few nights off and in front of the home crowd we think that Golden State will come out with a strong performance here. They just overcame long odds to come back from a 3-1 deficit to win the series against the Thunder in seven games. They are the more battle tested team here and we think they have better momentum. The Cavs haven’t really been tested this playoffs and even in their series against Toronto they faced an overmatched team. The extra rest here benefits the Warriors and we think the road team could be rusty here. Golden State has covered in four of the last five meetings in this series and we think they take Game 1 by eight or more points. |
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05-30-16 | Thunder +7 v. Warriors | Top | 88-96 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
We thought the Thunder would close this series out in Game 6 but the Warriors staged an incredible comeback after trailing most of the game and they caught the Thunder slipping. Now we are here for Game 7. We are not sure who will win this game. It will probably be the Warriors since they are at home. But the Thunder definitely have the chance for an upset and we expect a close game here. The Thunder played two pretty poor games last two times out and the way this team has played down the stretch and in the playoffs we don’t see them playing three like that in a row. Golden State hasn’t looked that great lately and they have counted on bursts of scoring and hot streaks at the right times for success in the last two wins. I like the professional attitude that the Thunder have shown in this series and the playoffs in general and this team has tons of playoff experience and they won’t just roll over here and we thought that this spread should be 4 max and we think this is a very public line. We see this one as being a close, high-scoring game and it should be a very good matchup but the Thunder are the only way to play this one in our opinion. |
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05-28-16 | Warriors v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
We have been pretty spot on in this series, hitting four out of five side plays, and our vision of how this series would play out has come to fruition almost perfectly. And we always thought that the Thunder would win this one in six games, and that is how we have to play this one. They have looked dominant in the two games at home and won those games by a combined 52 points. Even in Game 5 at Golden State the Warriors didn’t look like their dominant selves. The Thunder played a pretty lousy game and they were still within striking distance in the fourth quarter. We expect them to play much better at home tonight. This Warriors team was the best regular-season team of all time. This is a great team, no doubt. But they expended so much energy going for the NBA regular-season wins record and this is the first time they have been truly tested in the playoffs in the last two seasons. It has been pretty much a cakewalk for them up until this point, but now they face a team that is probably better than them at this point of the playoffs. The Thunder had some struggles early in the season with a new coach and it took everyone awhile to get on the same page. But now this team is playing as well as any team in the NBA has all season and they have a pair of stars in Durant and Westbrook that we think will dominate Game 6 here and send the Thunder to the NBA Finals. The Warriors lines have been inflated all season. We went against them quite a bit because they always had very public lines. That didn’t work out well very often. But now the lines have stayed inflated and we thought it was a joke they were favored in the first two games at OKC and after how the Thunder performed in those two games we think the Warriors are being given too much credit with this Game 6 line as well. |
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05-27-16 | Cavs -6 v. Raptors | Top | 113-87 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
We were on the Raptors in Games 3 and 4 here at home but we think this team is done after they just got manhandled in Game 5 in Cleveland. That had to destroy the confidence of this team and they lost all the momentum they gained in tying this series 2-2. Cleveland played a great game on offense and one of their best games of the season on the defensive end. We think the Raptors tying up this series gave this team a real wakeup call and they don’t want to rely on a Game 7, even at home where they have played their best this series, to advance to the NBA Finals. Toronto looked really flustered and tried to force things too much in Game 5 and we think the Cavs will bring the same defensive gameplan to the table and honestly we don’t think the Raptors can make a lot of adjustments here and they can’t count on the Cavs poor shooting for three games (in Toronto) straight. Cleveland dominated this last game in every phase of the game and they really have Toronto on the ropes and running scared. We think they will give a full team effort tonight and we expect them to carry the momentum from last game on here tonight, not to mention the starters got the fourth quarter off (for both teams) and that benefits the Cavs more with a better roster overall. Toronto has a very nice team but not one that is NBA Finals worthy and we think their run ends here on Friday night. |
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05-26-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 103 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
We have been on the OKC Thunder heavy in this series with great results but we think the Warriors will bounce back in this one to push this series to Game 6. The blowout in Cleveland last night just underlined how important home-court is in the NBA Playoffs as the Cavs looked lost in their two games in Toronto and then bounced back with an incredible performance on Wednesday night. We think the same thing will happen tonight. Golden State is the best home team in the NBA and this team thrives in situations where people doubt them. They seem to feed off it. We think we could see another blowout like in Game 2. The Thunder played with a lot of intensity in Games 3 and 4 but with this series now at 3-1 it is just going to be hard for them to bring the same fire here on the road. Golden State is desperate and after a couple of poor shooting games the buckets should come much easier here at home. The spread hasn’t really come into play in the playoffs too much and this series is a big example of that. These are the two best offensive teams in the league and whomever wins will have a big point total, which makes the spread pretty irrelevant. The team that wins this game will be the one that is playing the better game offensively and with offenses like this a spread around this range doesn’t worry us. We think there is a great chance the home team wins this one by 10+ points. OKC has covered only one of the last six meetings here in the Bay Area, and we expect that trend to continue tonight. |
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05-25-16 | Raptors +11 v. Cavs | Top | 78-116 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
While we do think the Cavs will win this one at home we also think this is an inflated line. The Raptors have to be feeling confident after two strong wins (and covers) at home to even the series at 2-2. Not only do they have momentum here but they also have Jonas Valanciunas coming back from injury tonight, and he has been a key cog in the machine that has got the Raptors this far into the postseason. Cleveland scored two blowouts to start this series but the Raptors had just finished two grueling 7-game series and the Cavs had a lot of time off. Now these teams are more on the same page as Toronto is in the groove of this series now while the Cavs are not as fresh. We had this line handicapped at 7.5 for the home team so we think there is some great value here tonight. |
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05-24-16 | Warriors v. Thunder +2.5 | Top | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Wow, the oddsmakers really keep disrespecting the OKC Thunder here. This team is playing the best basketball in the NBA right now and should not be an underdog against anyone at home. We are getting another public line here. Everyone thinks that the zig zag theory is in effect or that Golden State just had a couple off games, but we think that the Thunder will win this series and we expect them to put the Warriors on the brink of elimination tonight. We have always been of the thinking that the Warriors would crash and burn in the playoffs. They were our preseason pick to go all the way. But they peaked in the regular season when chasing the regular-season wins record while other, smarter, teams were preparing for the playoffs. Golden State used up so much energy in that pursuit and they forgot that they weren’t really challenged in the playoffs last year by a good team and that they might this year and that they would need everything they had. Well now they face a formidable foe and this Thunder team flat out looks better and more determined than the Warriors right now. Westbrook and Durant are playing some incredible basketball and they will be tough to beat at home. The whole team is coming together and they have been playing strong defense that has really frustrated and flustered the Golden State shooters. You see some frustration coming in from stuff like Draymond Green’s antics, and this is causing a huge distraction that this team doesn’t need right now. In fact, this Warriors team has dealt with nothing but distraction between the regular-season wins record, Curry’s injury in the playoffs and now this with Green. OKC is just quietly going about their business and this team seems primed for a championship run. We expect another strong showing by the home team here and they know that their time is now to close out this series and we think they get the job done in a high-scoring game. |
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05-23-16 | Cavs v. Raptors +6.5 | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
We really liked the way Toronto locked down on defense in Game 3 and held the Cavaliers to only 84 points. While we do think that the Cavs will obviously be able to score more than that tonight we still think there is value in the under and on the underdog Raptors. Toronto is not as bad as they looked in the two games in Cleveland and the Cavs are not as good. Toronto was coming off two exhausting seven-game series and they didn’t have time to get their footing against the best team they have faced in the playoffs. But now they are in the groove of this series and they have some nice momentum in Game 4 after a Game 3 blowout. Even though the Cavs get all the respect here you have to remember that the Raptors are one of the best home teams in the NBA. They are 39-11 at home this season (compare that to the Cavs 28-18 road record). They also won and covered both meetings here in the regular season so they match up pretty well here on their home court, in our opinion. We think they are going to use the same formula here with a lock-down defense and try and slow the game down. We think this will be a close game but we think the Raptors have a chance to win it, too, as we think this line is a very public one and that this series is not as lopsided as it looked in the first two games in Cleveland. Also, the under is 22-5-1 in the last 28 games in Toronto. |
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05-22-16 | Warriors v. Thunder +3.5 | Top | 105-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
When we first scanned the line for Game 3 when it was released we saw the number and thought that was about right. But we quickly rubbed our eyes and realized that it was Golden State that was favored and not OKC, so we knew we had to release a strong play here because we think the wrong team is favored. Yes, Golden State got a blowout win in Game 2 at home. But that was one of those games where everything went right for them and their shooting was hot. But overall we like the way the Thunder have been playing defense in this series, especially on the shooters, and we think they will win this game at home on Sunday. Of any team in the west we think the Thunder matches up with the Warriors the best. They have two dynamic players in Durant and Westbrook that can match Curry and Thompson and their role players have really stepped up their game and Donovan is looking like he will be an excellent pro coach as well. Just think this is another very public line and we expect OKC to get the win here on Sunday. |
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05-21-16 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 197.5 | Top | 84-99 | Win | 100 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
The Raptors were just used and abused in Games 1 and 2 blowout losses in Cleveland and there’s now no doubt that they are overmatched here in this series. But they come back home for Game 3 here and we think they will play better, at least on defense. Their offense just hasn’t been able to do anything in the playoffs really thus far and we don’t think they will be able to make adjustments there, but they can definitely make some on defense and this is one of the best defensive teams in the easy and we think they will feed off the home crowd here, which is one of the best in the NBA. This team has to be embarrassed with their performance on defense in the first two games of this series and we think that they will probably give it their all here as most know this series is essentially over but they will want to try their best to at least win one game in this series in front of the home fans in their first time ever in the Eastern Conference Finals and we think they get this done on the defensive end after the first two games in this series went under while the bookies have not made a big adjustment for this totals line. |
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05-19-16 | Raptors +13 v. Cavs | Top | 89-108 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
Was leaning to Toronto in Game 1 but glad we didn’t pull the trigger as they were blown out. But we think that they will bounce back here in Game 2 and play a better game, and we are getting an even better line here. Game 1 was just one game and we don’t think it was a true reflection of the disparity between these two teams. Yes, Cleveland is the better team and Toronto is banged up right now. But the Raptors are a very tough and very proud team and this squad is not going to roll over for anyone. This is one of the better defensive teams in the east and they are definitely capable of making some adjustments here to keep the Cavs from scoring a lot. Look at the Spurs/Thunder series out in the west as San Antonio got a big blowout win in Game 1 and everyone thought that OKC was done. This line is an overreaction to Game 1 and we think Toronto will play better on offense and tighten up the defense and we think they will keep things close in a low-scoring game. |
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05-18-16 | Thunder +8.5 v. Warriors | Top | 91-118 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
We thought the Thunder were undervalued in this series and their Game 1 win just solidified those thoughts. That game was no fluke. Now we are getting an even better line for Game 2. We think that OKC has risen up and is now on a level playing field with Golden State. Durant and Westbrook can match Curry and Thompson and the role players for OKC can match those of the Warriors. The Thunder started off the season with a new coach and it took time for everyone to get on the same page. But they are playing their best basketball right now maybe in the Durant era and they just took down freaking San Antonio, including two road wins, and they made it look pretty easy. The Spurs had one of the best regular seasons in history. We said late in the season that the Warriors might face trouble in the playoffs because they expended so much energy going for the regular-season wins record and that has now finally come to fruition. This is the first real challenge they have faced in the last two playoffs as all their opponents were either on a much lower level as a team or hobbled with injuries when they played Golden State. But we just think that this is a very public line. We think Golden State -4 would be more appropriate here. OKC has covered five of their last six games and their only non-cover was a slim one. The Warriors had some trouble with Portland and that series was closer than the results might show. Not sure if the Thunder will win this one. But we think they can if they play well. But we just think that all the games in this series will be close and this is too many points tonight on a very public line. OKC is 6-2 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points this season and the way this team is playing right now they should never be getting more than four as long as they are healthy. |
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05-17-16 | Raptors v. Cavs UNDER 201 | Top | 84-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
These are two of the best defensive teams in the east and we expect this to be a low scoring game that will be well under 200. The Cavaliers have been off four eight nights and their shooting will probably be rusty. On the other end of the spectrum, they will be very fresh and have lots of energy on defense and we just don’t see any way the Raptors score many points here. Toronto has been amazing on defense throughout these playoffs and they will have to play hard in that area again to be competitive here. Even though the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings, the game slows down in the playoffs and the defense gets more serious and we think this total was overadjusted because of the regular-season results. The under is 6-1 for Cleveland when playing on three or more days rest as their defense normally steps up in this situation. The under is also 8-1 in the Raptors last nine road games. |
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