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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-16-16 | Thunder +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 108-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
Even though the Thunder didn’t play great against the Warriors in the regular season, besides that one OT loss at home, the playoffs are a different animal and we don’t think this series will be a cakewalk for the Warriors. OKC is playing their best basketball of the season right now and they are peaking at the right time and to us these teams are a lot closer than the lines indicate. We expect a competitive series here. Golden State once again had a pretty easy path in the playoffs. They faced a Houston team in the first round that didn’t belong then they played an upstart Portland team that was a strong team but one that had a lack of top-level talent and wasn’t even expected to make the playoffs by most. But their opponent tonight is playing well and is very formidable. This is the time for Westbrook and Durant to finally make it over the hump and win a championship and we think they will give it all they have in every game and even though this team got off to a slow start it is finally melding together now and we think they come into this series a bit underrated. Both teams have played a lot of unders in these playoffs. Both play at a fast pace but both are also extremely strong defensively. In fact, both teams are in the Top 5 defensively for field goal percentage defense and we just think this total is about 4-5 points too high for Game 1. |
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05-15-16 | Heat v. Raptors UNDER 188.5 | Top | 89-116 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
Even though the last two matchups in this series have gone over, it has been a very low-scoring series overall. Even with the two overs in the last two games these teams have averaged only 181 points in regulation in the six games. Three games went to overtime and that makes it seem like these teams have scored more, but this has been a very strong defensive series. Even when the total has gone over it hasn’t been by much, but there have been some games where the total was way under when the games went to overtime. These are two of the strongest defensive teams in the league and we think that defensive tenacity will be on full display here in Game 7. These teams have no choice but to leave everything on the floor. There hasn’t been a lot of consistent offense here by the key players. No one has really been able to put together several big games in a row. Even though Game 6 went pretty well over the total (we were on the over) we think it’s very telling that the bookies have lowered the total for this Game 7 and we think there is a great chance that this one winds up in the low 180s or possibly even 170s. We expect a hard-fought game here and we just won’t worry about the side and will instead go with the total because we do think both clubs will bring their A Game on defense. |
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05-13-16 | Raptors v. Heat -4 | Top | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
We have said all along that we think this series is going to 7 games and have no doubt that premonition will come to fruition tonight. Just when one team looks to have the upper hand the other comes back strong. There is no conspiracy in the NBA, but the refs can have an outcome on the game and you know the NBA wants at least one Game 7 in the semifinals and the Heat will probably get some home cooking from the refs tonight. The Raptors have been overrated in this series and they only had one strong cover and that was in the last game. Both teams are banged up but we just like the Heat in this series and think their experience will pay off here. DeRozan has been pretty ineffective in this series so far and he is banged up and if not at 100% then the Raps lose a big difference maker. Miami is a great home team at 27-19-1 ATS and we think they will get the job done tonight in front of the home fans. |
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05-12-16 | Spurs v. Thunder OVER 196.5 | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
We lean to OKC here and we expect them to put up a lot of points tonight at home in this closeout game. We have been on San Antonio this whole series but after seeing their defense break down in the fourth quarter of Game 5 we think this team has hit the end of the road. The Thunder put up 52 points in the second half of Game 5 and they shot pretty poorly from three-point land all game but we think that percentage will improve here and that OKC will get well over 100 here. This team averages 109 points per game at home and we think that they will have their best offensive game of the series here in this close out game. This is the lowest total in this series and we think the total has been posted too low here tonight for Game 6. |
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05-11-16 | Blazers +12.5 v. Warriors | Top | 121-125 | Win | 100 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
Curry is back and that means the public bettors are back in Golden State’s corner. And that’s understandable because they have been amazing against the spread for most of the season. You rarely see that from a team like this that the public loves. However, we just think they made too big of an adjustment here for Curry’s return and this spread is a few points too high for Game 5 here. Portland has played really well this series and this team is playing its best basketball of the season. They should have covered in Game 2 but ran out of steam late after having a lead most of the game. They scored a blowout at home in Game 3 and then took the Warriors to OT in Game 4 with Curry in the lineup off the bench. Just think this team is being underestimated a bit and Draymod Green didn’t help the Warriors cause with disrespectful comments after Game 4. Portland has nothing to lose here and we think they play a strong game that stays within double digits. Portland hasn’t had much trouble scoring on the Warriors the last couple games and we think this one will be high-scoring as well. |
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05-10-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -7 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
San Antonio is one of the best home teams this season in the history of the league and they have one of the best coaches in the history of the game, and we think they get the job done in the most important game of the series here in Game 5. The Thunder got a big blowout win in Game 4 to retake home-court advantage but the Spurs are the masters at bouncing back after a game like that and they will be ready to play. We think there is a great chance for a Spurs blowout like we saw in this same building in Game 1. The Spurs are the better team here, both SU and ATS, and even though the Thunder have surpassed our expectations so far in this series we still think the Spurs get the job done here and we think there is a great chance for them to return the favor with a double-digit win. |
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05-09-16 | Warriors -5 v. Blazers | Top | 132-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
The Warriors had a rare off game last time out but this team is excellent at bouncing back after a loss and we don’t see any way they don’t win this one with authority. The Warriors are the better team even without Curry on the court and they have made this look easy so far in this series up until that Game 3 hiccup. They don’t want to give any chance for the Blazers to even this series up so this is the most important game of the series and we just think the cream will rise to the top here. Golden State has a very strong history in this series as they are 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings and we don’t see this one as being very close as a motivated Warriors team takes care of business tonight to put the Blazers on the brink of elimination. |
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05-07-16 | Raptors v. Heat OVER 186 | Top | 95-91 | Push | 0 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
There has been some poor shooting in this series thus far, and it all hasn’t been about the defense. Games 1 and 2 both went to overtime as well as the last meeting in the regular season, and even though you can’t handicap overtime you also have to say it’s not out of the question here. But we don’t think we will need overtime to cash this ticket. We think the Raptors will try to push the pace here more and Lowry and DeRozan have to break out of their slumps at some point. We think that could be tonight as the Raptors make some adjustments to the defense Miami has been playing. Lowry is 10-of-35 in this series and DeRozan is shooting only slightly better from the field. Those numbers just have to improve. This is the lowest total of the series as the bookies have made a big adjustment down from the opening number of 191. Just think there will be a high-scoring game soon in this series – overtime or not – and we think tonight will be the night. |
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05-06-16 | Spurs -2 v. Thunder | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
The Spurs looked mortal last time out and the Thunder looked very good but we still think the Spurs are the much better team here and expect them to bounce back in a big way. The Thunder will get their points here at home and we think the Spurs will concentrate more on offense than defense and we expect both teams to surpass the century mark here. San Antonio showed they can score on this team as they put up 124 in Game 1 and these totals have been adjusted way down from what the numbers were in the regular season, too far in our opinion. The Spurs aren’t going to panic after losing Game 2 at home. This team has seen it all and is the best-coached team in the league and they will be calm and business-like here and they will just go about their business and win this game. Even though the Spurs played a rare lousy game in Game 2 they still had a chance to win it at the end and the Thunder gave a great effort that we aren’t sure they can replicate. The Thunder are a popular upset pick in this series but we just don’t see it and we expect the Spurs to regain home-court advantage tonight. |
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05-05-16 | Heat v. Raptors UNDER 188 | Top | 92-96 | Push | 0 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
Game 1 went way under the total until Kyle Lowry hit a miracle half-courter to send the game to overtime. We think this will be a defensive contest as well. And we think the Raptors will be able to make some adjustments on defense here and bounce back in this one. Both teams have trended to the under big time in this playoffs and both are one of the best defensive teams in the league. Toronto bounced back from a Game 1 loss against Indiana and played a lot better in Game 2, holding the Pacers to just 87 points and willing by 10+. We think that this one will play out similarly. Even though Toronto lost in OT last time out maybe that half-courter will get Lowry going and give this team some confidence heading into Game 2. This series looks like one that will go the distance and we just don’t see Miami winning two straight on the road here. Wade is also hobbled for Miami and with his history he could drop out of the game at any minute and that would further help our position for the side and the total, even if he plays the whole game but not at 100% |
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05-04-16 | Hawks +7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 98-123 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
We like the Hawks to make some adjustments here and keep this game closer than Game 1. Even though the Cavs won and covered Game 1 this team always has at least an extra point added to their line because they are such a public team and we think this is one of those series where the bookies should have lowered the line down to 6 or 6.5 for Game 2 as we think the Hawks will tighten up the defense and make some adjustments on offense and play better here and this team is much better than the Detroit club that Cleveland swept and they are just not going to roll over. This team plays excellent defense and they are very well coached and we expect a bounce back here tonight. |
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05-03-16 | Blazers +10 v. Warriors | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
We liked the Blazers in Game 1 but the Warriors jumped all over them in the first quarter with hot shooting combined with very cold shooting from Portland and they got behind so bad that this really affected the look of the entire game. We expect the Blazers to play a much better game here and without Curry in the lineup for the Warriors this is a more even series than it would appear after Game 1. In fact, the Blazers outscored the Warriors 89-81 in the second through fourth quarters. We expect them to make some defensive adjustments here, too, to keep the Warriors from extended hot shooting streaks. Portland was down by 26 at one point in Game 1 and they came back and made it respectable at the end and you got the feeling if they would have added a minute or two to the clock that the Blazers would have covered. Both teams have trended to the under and we think we will see a much different game here in Game 2 as this one will be close and it will be much more low scoring. |
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05-02-16 | Hawks +8 v. Cavs | Top | 93-104 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
Loved the way the Hawks played in their series against Boston. If not for a loss in OT the series would have been over much quicker and they recorded blowouts in the last two games of the series. Cleveland has been one of the most overhyped teams in the NBA this season and even though the east has overall been getting better year to year it is still not as good as the west and Cleveland is not on par with the best teams in the west but the oddsmakers line them like they are. That is part of the reason they are so poor against the number (39-44-3 ATS on the season). The Spurs are laying the same line against OKC tonight but they are a much better team and one of the better ATS teams in the league. Atlanta does great in this pointspread range and they are 15-6 ATS when getting between 5.0 and 7.5 points, and we expect a real close game here as the Cavs have had too much time off while Atlanta has major momentum on their side right now. |
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05-01-16 | Blazers +8.5 v. Warriors | Top | 106-118 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
Just don’t think this big of a spread is warranted in this Game 1 matchup. The Blazers are one of the few teams to knock off the Warriors in the regular season – when Golden State was pretty much full strength – and this team is in fine form right now and playing some of their best basketball of the season. They knocked off the Clippers in 6 on Friday night and even though LA was injury ravaged they played a truly heroic game and it took a very strong effort for Portland to win that game. So they are in full playoff form right now and they have played three straight excellent games. Their shots are falling right now too and they don’t get more than a day off here so they will keep their positive momentum. The Warriors made it look easy against the Rockets but that team barely made the playoffs and this is a much better club they face tonight and this is where the loss of Curry really starts to hurt the team. We think this will be a close game and the Blazers should be free and loose here as their season goals have pretty much been met and anything above this is just a bonus. Golden State has a lot more pressure here and we don’t think the rest of the top players on this team have the same mental fortitude as Curry. Also, Curry has not been even ruled out for Game 2 yet but he could be back soon so the Blazers need to strike here while the iron is hot and play like this is Game 7. |
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04-30-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -6.5 | Top | 92-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
The Spurs are the better team here. In fact, with Curry out for Golden State this is the clear-cut best team in the NBA right now in our eyes. And this team has had five nights off to rest and prepare for this series. That is a huge edge. Some teams might be rusty in this situation but we don’t think that will be the case at all for the veteran Spurs who have seen every possible playoff scenario in the past. Even though the Thunder covered all the matchups in the regular season this is the playoffs, and Gregg Popovich is the best coach in the NBA and he will have his team ready. The Spurs were one of the best ATS teams in the league at home this season at 25-18 ATS and they were great as a big favorite with a 35-24 ATS mark when laying big points. Popovich will come up with a great defensive plan to slow down the OKC offense tonight and he has the soldiers to execute that plan as the Spurs were by far the strongest defensive team in the league and the Spurs can go toe-to-toe on offense with OKC as well rested and fresh. This one is a very easy call for us tonight. |
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04-29-16 | Clippers +10.5 v. Blazers | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
We had the Blazers last time out and we expected the Clippers to look shellshocked and lost after losing CP3 and Blake Griffin to injury in the span of about 15 minutes. They looked horrible at Staples Center in Game 5 and got blown out. But they still had a chance for the series in that game and there was a lot of pressure on guys to step up. Now all the pressure switches to the Blazers and we don’t think they will handle it well. And the Clippers should play pretty lose and free and they really have nothing to lose here and no expectations since everyone has already handed the Blazers the series. Redick and Crawford were cold last time out and you won’t keep shooters like this cold for long and without all the pressure we think they will play well. The Blazers were just 1-4 ATS this season laying big points like this and you have to think a good coach like Doc Rivers will come up with a gameplan here to give the Clippers the best chance to be competitive. |
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04-28-16 | Hawks -2 v. Celtics | Top | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Atlanta is the overall better team in this matchup and this line is more than fair on Thursday night. Atlanta has played very well in all but one of the games in this series and won Game 5 by almost 30 points. They have Boston on the ropes and should be able to deliver the death blow tonight. Boston would have more of a chance in this series if Avery Bradley was not hurt but even with Bradley in the lineup you feel this team is still a year away from being a serious contender. We think the Hawks have figured out Boston and Game 5 was the proof that this series is now a mismatch and the Celtics have a major uphill battle here. Atlanta did a real good job defensively on Isaiah Thomas in Game 5 and now he is hobbled with an ankle injury and we feel this is just the end of the line for a Celtics team that is very good but not yet as good as their adversary here tonight. |
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04-27-16 | Rockets +9.5 v. Warriors | Top | 81-114 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
Stephen Curry is more important to his team than any other player in the league and we think this line is too big with him out of the lineup. The Rockets were blown out last time out and that is why the line is so large here but we expect them to keep it close tonight. They were in the game at the half last time out before crumbling in the second half. We think they will be able to put together more of a complete game here with Curry out as he makes everyone better on the Warriors and Klay Thompson, although a great player in his own right, is no Curry and is prone to bouts of inconsistency and Houston can focus more on slowing him down as he has most of his success in tandem with Curry. Houston has been good at bouncing back after a loss and is 5-2 ATS in their last seven in this situation and we think they keep it close but Golden State wins. |
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04-26-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -7 | Top | 99-102 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
Toronto is the much better team in this matchup and despite the lack of playoff success we have to think they get a big statement win here at home in Game 5. This is a must-win game as if the Raps lose this they go back to Indiana Friday with the Pacers having a chance to close the series out. Toronto just couldn’t get anything going last time out as they were blown out in Indiana. But like most NBA teams, both of these clubs are much better at home than on the road and the Raptors are one of the best home teams in the NBA both SU and ATS. They are also 23-8 ATS at home in this series in the last 31 meetings and that is a long history of pointspread dominance. We are getting a short line here because of the result of the last game but we think the cream rises to the top tonight and we expect a strong performance from the home club here. |
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04-25-16 | Clippers -3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 84-98 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
The Blazers rallied to win Game 3 and that puts more urgency on the Clippers to get a win here. This team has been in enough Game 7s that it knows it does not want to go there again so early in the playoffs with Golden State looming in the next round. The Clippers took the lead late in Game 3 but Portland took it back and the game was closer than the final score indicated even though the Clips did not play their best game and the Blazers played pretty well. But LA is one of the better road teams in the NBA and this first-round series is pretty much a mismatch and we expect the Clippers to play very strong defense here as we liked some of the things they have been doing in this series even though Portland hit some key shots in Game 3. LA has been very good in bounce-back situations all season and we expect them to take care of business here tonight and head back to Stapes Center with a chance to close this thing out in 5 games Wednesday night. |
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04-24-16 | Hawks v. Celtics -2 | Top | 95-104 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
Things got very chippy in Game 3 and the refs were quick to call fouls. There were 54 free throw attempts made in Game 3 (214 total points scored) as opposed to 28 in Game 2 (161 points scored). We think the refs will be quick with the whistle again here as they don’t want this to evolve into a straight up brawl and these offenses are starting to get into a groove in this series and we think there is a great chance that both teams get over the century mark here. Neither team did anything amazing last game as far as FG% but the refs called a lot of fouls for easy points and the pace was swift. We expect the same kind of game here and think that both offenses will play well, especially Isaiah Thomas, who scored 40+ in Game 3 really seems to be in a zone. At the end of the day we expect Boston to win this game and thought that this line should be closer to 4.5 as they have a solid home court advantage and they have shown that the system works no matter which players are available and this is a balanced team that can absorb injuries better than others. |
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04-23-16 | Thunder v. Mavs +9 | Top | 119-108 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
We expect a close, low-scoring game here and think that the Mavs will bounce back at home after getting embarrassed in front of the home crowd in Game 3. Dallas has played some of the strongest defense in the league down the stretch of the regular season and we expect them to tighten things up big time and slow the game down here as the Thunder did whatever they wanted offensively in Game 3. This total has been adjusted too high and Games 1 and 2 went way under the total but because of Game 3 they have adjusted this line upwards by five points and we have this total handicapped under 200 tonight. Great value on the total and an underrated Mavs team that has been one of the better ATS teams all season and will be ready to make their last stand here in order to make this a series. We don’t think they will win because the Thunder have the clutch players to make a difference at the end of the game but we do expect a close game here and think the underdog is the way to go on the side. |
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04-22-16 | Hawks v. Celtics -3 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Boston is down after going 0-2 in the games in Atlanta but don’t count them out yet. This team took Atlanta to the wire in Game 1 and even though they didn’t play well in Game 2 this team is back home now where they are a much better team than on the road. They have a great home-court advantage and are very well coached and they will be ready tonight despite some injuries. Boston was very good this season at home against winning teams as they went 12-7 ATS and they were also solid as a small favorite like the situation they are in tonight at 13-9 ATS. Boston was also underrated by the bookies at home a lot this season and we think that is the case tonight. Boston is in a must-win situation here and we think they respond with a big win here that easily covers the spread. |
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04-21-16 | Warriors -5 v. Rockets | Top | 96-97 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
We are getting a great line here because Stephen Curry is doubtful for this game. We don’t think it will matter as the Warriors are the best team in the NBA and they have tons of weapons. The Rockets looked completely disinterested in the first couple games of this series and this was a down year for the team and they know they won’t be advancing past this round. The much better Houston team got a win here at home last season in the WCF playoff matchup but they were also beat by 35 here and that team had it together more than this year’s group that barely made the playoffs. Harden and Howard have been at odds lately and that just hurts the chemistry of this team. With Curry injured the Warriors want to end this series ASAP to give him more time to rest for the second round. We feel there is a good chance for a double-digit win tonight. |
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04-20-16 | Blazers +8.5 v. Clippers | Top | 81-102 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
The Blazers were another team blown out in Game 1 that we expect to come back strong here in Game 2. The Clippers looked great in the second half of Game 1 and their defense on Damian Lillard was exceptional. But Portland will make adjustments. What we have seen from the Clippers in the past is that they can look championship-caliber one game and look lost the next. Heck, this can even happen from half to half with this team. Once again the Clippers have a lot of pressure on them in this series and this playoffs in general and this team just hasn’t handled the pressure well in the past and we expect a close game here and the Blazers will play a much more complete game. The Blazers were very good ATS on the road this season and also it’s very telling that the Clippers don’t face a larger line than in Game 1 here after the blowout we saw in that game. |
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04-19-16 | Grizzlies v. Spurs UNDER 187.5 | Top | 68-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
San Antonio is of course the best defensive team in the NBA this year and they are playing an outmatched opponent and we don’t think that Memphis will get enough points to get this one over the posted number. Five of the last seven meetings between these two teams have gone under the posted number and we think that will be the case here. The Grizzlies really need to slow this game down for any chance of even keeping it respectable and they will have to rely on defense to have a chance here because this offense plain stinks and defense is the only way they have a chance. We just don’t see any way that the Griz put up their share of points here and they will probably stop the Spurs from going completely crazy on offense and make some defensive adjustments from Game 1. Also with this game an expected blowout the last 24 seconds of the game might just be the Spurs dribbling the ball out and also the starters may get rest late if the Spurs are up by enough points. Lots of reasons to like the under here. |
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04-17-16 | Blazers +7 v. Clippers | Top | 95-115 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 5 m | Show |
We think this is going to be a very close series and we give the Clippers home-court advantage and not much else. We handicapped this game at -3.5 and we knew the bookies would open at a much higher number. Once the Blazers got their early-season kinks out this team started to play excellent basketball. They were not expected by anyone to make the playoffs this year but here they are, as a No. 5 seed no less. They should be loose and free here and all the pressure is on the Clippers in this series. And as we have seen in the playoffs the last few years this team does not handle pressure too well. Blake Griffin is not in game shape yet and we don’t think he will be his normal beast self, at least early in this series. If the Clippers flame out before the Western Conference Finals there will likely be some big changes within the organization and that creates even more pressure because everyone knows this. Of all the lower seeds in the west this Portland team is the most dangerous and the Clippers are the most vulnerable of the higher seeds and we think this Game 1 will be extremely close and an outright upset would not surprise us. The Blazers have covered in four of the last five meetings in LA, and we see the same result here for Game 1. |
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04-16-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -6 | Top | 100-90 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 2 m | Show |
Toronto has just dominated this series lately and we don’t see this playoff series as being any different and we think the Raptors will make a statement here in Game 1. Toronto won three of four games against the Pacers this season and they covered in all three wins. They are 22-7 ATS in this series long term, and there aren’t many better betting trends than that in the NBA. Toronto obviously matches up well here and they are a very dominant home team that is often underrated here at home (23-18 ATS this season). Indiana has just been so inconsistent this season and we just think they would have to play their best game to cover this number in Game 1 and we don’t see it happening. These teams played on 4/8 and the Raptors won by 13 on this same floor with Kyle Lowry out. They are probably looking at a similar result tonight and we think there is a great chance that the Raptors make quick work of this series and win it in 4 or 5. We think they will make a statement here in Game 1 in front of a raucous home crowd. |
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04-13-16 | 76ers +10 v. Bulls | Top | 105-115 | Push | 0 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Rose and Gasol are out here for the Bulls and we think this is just too many points to be giving the Sixers tonight. The Bulls have been a bad bet all year at home and they have failed more often than not when laying big points like this. The Sixers have been good bouncing back from a bad game lately and are 4-0 ATS when coming off an ATS loss. We think the Bulls just want this season over with and we don’t expect a very good performance from them tonight. They probably do enough to win but not cover this big number. Philly has been playing hard with limited talent and we think they want to end the season on a positive note. These teams went to overtime in the last meeting, in January, and we expect this game to be cloer than the oddsmakers think. |
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04-12-16 | Grizzlies +7.5 v. Clippers | Top | 84-110 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
The Clippers are locked into the No. 4 seed for the NBA Playoffs. The Grizzlies can finish anywhere from 5 to 7 depending on how the next two days shake out. If the Grizzlies were to finish No. 5 then they would play the Clippers. That is a long shot but that is the absolute best-case scenario for the Clippers to play the Grizzlies who are down two injured starters that won’t be back for the playoffs. Portland would be a much tougher matchup for the Clippers and what motivation do they have here to play hard tonight? Blake Griffin is getting back into game shape and we think that Doc Rivers will tinker with some lineups here and probably give the starters reduced minutes. The goal for this game is to get Griffin some minutes and for the bench to continue to contribute. Memphis will play hard here and they always match up well with the Clips and these two teams are rivals and we think the Grizzlies will play hard tonight against a disinterested Clippers team. |
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04-11-16 | Rockets -3 v. Wolves | Top | 129-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
Just have to go with the more motivated team tonight. We had this line at Houston -6 with a lean to the Rockets at that number so we like this number even more. Houston is on the outside looking in right now for the playoff picture as they are in the No. 9 spot trailing Dallas and Utah, who play tonight. With a win here they can gain some ground on one of those teams. Minnesota has won three straight and has been playing very well. But all three of those games were on the road, and tonight they come back home where they have been one of the worst bets in the NBA this season at 13-25-1 ATS. They are just 5-15 ATS here on the season playing against teams with losing records as will be the case tonight. Minnesota has been playing well but this team thrives in the role of the big underdog but they normally fall flat in situations like this and we think the desperate Rockets take care of business tonight against an inferior opponent. |
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04-10-16 | Magic +10 v. Heat | Top | 96-118 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
The Magic have been one of the best bets in the NBA catching bigtime points as they are 7-1 ATS ad a dog of nine or more points. This young team always plays well with a chip on their shoulders and we think this will be a very close game. This is a regional rivalry and the Magic actually won just two nights ago when these teams played in Orlando. None of the last seven games has been decided by more than nine points. Orlando has won and covered in five of their last seven games and this team is playing well and looks like one that wants to finish the season off strong and with some momentum heading into next season. This is one of the better ATS teams in the league and they are underrated on a nightly basis. Victor Oladipo is out with a concussion and that is a reason we are getting a really nice line here but this team has plenty of young talent and we think they will step up here in what we expect to be a very competitive game. |
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04-10-16 | Mavs v. Clippers -5 | Top | 91-98 | Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
It looks like the Clippers plan to play all the starters here and even though the Mavs need this win to clinch the playoffs we think the Clippers will want to get into playoff-ready mode here and they are the much stronger team with a full roster. We expect the home team to notch a comfortable win here. The Clippers bench has gotten a lot of extra playing time lately and they have played very well. Jamal Crawford especially. And the starters have played very sparingly lately so they should be fresh and ready for a big game here. Dallas has been playing well, no doubt, but that has been against a pretty easy schedule and this is by far the toughest matchup they have had in their last six games, all wins. We had the Clippers -8 here and since our number is on the other side of the key NBA number of 7 that makes this a very strong play on Sunday. |
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04-09-16 | Thunder v. Kings +7 | Top | 112-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
This is the final game at Sleep Train Arena for the Kings and this is one of the hottest tickets in town in Sacramento and they are having ceremonies and former players in town and a bunch of hoopla. We think the Kings will try hard here for the win with the spotlight on them. This team has a lot of talent. But they have not always given the effort. But there is a reason to think they will tonight in the last game at this arena. The Thunder are locked into the No. 3 spot in the West and they should rest some guys tonight. We like this line even if they don’t, but there is always a chance for a late scratch here and we expect the Kings to play their full roster in this marquee matchup. Sacramento actually normally plays pretty well in this series and have covered in four of the last five matchups. We think this will be a close game and if the Thunder really don’t care then an upset could be in order on Saturday night. |
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04-08-16 | Pacers -5 v. Raptors | Top | 98-111 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
This is a very possible first-round preview for the NBA Playoffs next weekend. Toronto is pretty much locked into the No. 2 seed and they have absolutely no motivation in this game. The Pacers are one of four teams fighting for the last two playoff spots in the east. They need to keep winning in order to secure their spot in the dance (they clinch with a win here) as well as to avoid Cleveland in Round 1 by falling to the No. 8 seed, and they are currently in the No. 7 position. Toronto is more focused on getting ready for the playoffs and you never know who will or won’t suit up for this team tonight with nothing to play for and Indiana will be playing with the intensity of a playoff game. There is a reason this line is so large for the Pacers on the road against one of the best teams in the east, but we don’t think it’s large enough as the Raptors will probably not want to tip their hand to a potential first-round opponent and they probably don’t care about winning this game much if at all. |
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04-07-16 | Wolves v. Kings -4.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
The Kings just run run run and they don’t play any defense and the Wolves are a team that likes to run and plays shoddy defense as well and we think this one will be a barnburner tonight that will be a fun game to watch for those that like scoring. With nothing to play for, why not make the fans happy? The Kings are the worst defensive team in the NBA and one of the highest scoring, and their totals have gone higher than normal lately as they have gone over in four of six games despite some high posted totals. We think this is a letdown spot for the Wolves after beating Golden State in overtime last time out for the biggest win of the year. What do they have to play for moving forward? Not much. This team is already looking towards next year with all the young talent and they did their work by beating Golden State so there is not much left to play for this season. We expect a poor defensive effort here but they will be able to score on this Sacramento defense. With a near-full roster for the Kings we think they will play well here in one of their final home games. They have had a pretty tough schedule lately so this is a good spot for a convincing win. Remember, before that Warriors game the Wolves had lost five straight ATS and because of their big win Tuesday we think they are overvalued tonight. |
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04-06-16 | Nets v. Wizards UNDER 209.5 | Top | 103-121 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
We think this could be a blowout or a close game but one thing we are pretty sure about is that Brooklyn won’t score enough points to get this one over the posted number. This team has averaged 88 PPG in their last three, including only 87 points in their last matchup against a New Orleans team that has one of the worst defenses in the league. This team is trending heavily to the under with six of their last eight going under the posted number. Now Thaddeus Young and Brook Lopez for the Nets have been shut down for the rest of the season. Lopez is the team leader in scoring with 21 PPG and Young is the team leader in rebounds and field goal percentage. The last game against the Pelicans showed how ineffective this team is on offense as they shot well under 40% from the field against a team that allows nearly 47 percent shooting on average. They have also trended heavily to the under on the road at 23-15 on the season. This is the Wizards last stand as the playoffs aren’t going to happen but they aren’t mathematically eliminated yet even though they soon will be. But we think they play hard against a very beatable opponent here and we think their defense rises to the challenge. The Wizards have been playing pretty good D against bad teams lately and this series has a strong history for the under with five of the last six meetings going under and four of the last five in Washington having the same result. |
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04-05-16 | Wolves +15.5 v. Warriors | Top | 124-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Golden State is another team that has lost that killer instinct. They have covered in only three of their last nine games. Part of the reason is the stress of playing for this record to beat the Bulls all-time regular season mark. We think this is a stupid idea and it shows this team has overinflated egos. They need to be thinking about the playoffs and repeating as champs, and this misguided focus has caused them to not play up to the level we are used to seeing. Thankfully for our line tonight they pounded Portland last time out and that has caused this line to be overinflated. The Wolves have not been playing great but they normally get up for games like this. They have covered in four of the last five meetings in this series and the one loss was by 13, so they did not embarrass themselves. After some bad recent results they will want to play well here and this is one of the last highlight games of their season before the offseason starts next week. They will play hard here, and this team has a lot of young talent and they get up for marquee opponents. Minnesota is an amazing 13-3 ATS on the road against winning teams, so this is where they do their best work in the situation we see them in tonight. They are also 15-8 ATS this season when getting eight or more points so they are often undervalued as an underdog. Golden State has San Antonio on deck so that is another distraction. |
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04-03-16 | Mavs -2.5 v. Wolves | Top | 88-78 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
Dallas has dominated this series, winning six straight matchups. They won the last meeting by 27 points. This is a must-win game for the Mavs while the Timberwolves have nothing to play for and won’t have the same urgency as the road team. Dallas is one of three teams fighting for the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds in the west. Dallas is a streaky team. They followed a three-game losing streak with three straight wins heading into this matchup. This team is definitely one to follow when they are hot and this squad has covered in five of their last seven games overall so they are underrated by the oddsmakers. We had this line handicapped at Dallas -6.5 so we think there is some nice value here. Minnesota has been one of the worst betting teams at home as they are 13-24-1 ATS this season on their home court. Dallas is 20-17-1 ATS on the road, where they are underrated again today. Dallas has covered in five of the last six meetings, and we just doubt that Minnesota comes to play with the same intensity as the Mavs do today. If this is a playoff team it has to win this type of game against an overmatched opponent. |
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04-02-16 | Pacers v. 76ers UNDER 203.5 | Top | 115-102 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
These teams played over a week ago in Indiana and the total reached only 166. While that game does not mean a whole lot in regards to this one as every NBA game is its own animal, we do expect this game to go well under the posted number. The Sixers played hard last night at Charlotte and we think they come into this one flat. This team has been very poor on back-to-backs and they average well under their season average for scoring in these situations. Indiana has been pretty good on defense lately against bad offensive games like this and we could see them holding the Sixers down to a real low score. Similarly, the Pacers aren’t a team that normally goes crazy on offense and we don’t see them having a 110-type game here. They will probably just get over the century mark as they normally do. And since this is a crucial game for them we see them upping the defensive pressure here in a likely blowout. |
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04-01-16 | Wizards v. Suns OVER 213.5 | Top | 106-99 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
We expect a very high-scoring game here as both teams like to play fast. The Wizards can really explode for big offensive nights against lousy defensive teams like this. Case in point when they scored 111 on Sacramento lately and 129 on the Timberwolves. We think they can see one of these types of nights against the Suns. Both teams will be moving the ball up and down the court. That will benefit both offenses. The Suns have been loose with the ball lately and the Wizards should convert many turnovers into points, which is why we think they will be close to the 120 territory tonight. We don’t see the home team having any problems getting to the century mark with the swift pace and the Wizards will probably just try to win the track meet here and save the defensive intensity for the Clippers on Sunday. |
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03-31-16 | Bulls v. Rockets -6.5 | Top | 103-100 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
This game is a must-win for both teams but we think the Rockets are in a better position for a big win here at home on Thursday night. The Bulls are on the outside looking in for the playoffs in the east while the Rockets are one of three teams with 37 wins vying for the last two playoff spots in the west. Even though these teams have almost identical records the Rockets seem to be on the way up and we think they will make the playoffs while the Bulls have all sorts of problems right now and this is a team trending down. We don’t think the Bulls will be in the postseason. Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson are banged up tonight and will probably not be at 100% while the Rockets are pretty healthy. Houston has won two of three and beat the Cavs on the road last time out, and even though LeBron didn’t play in that game they should come in here with a lot of confidence. Even though Chicago was off on Wednesday this will be their third game in four nights and this team just doesn’t have great morale right now and they recently had an internal meeting after a blowout loss at Orlando and that didn’t produce any positive results as they went out and lost at home to Atlanta the next game out. Chicago has dropped four of their last five overall and we see them trailing off in the fourth quarter here since this team has played a lot in the last few nights and we think there is a great chance for a Rockets double-digit win here. |
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03-30-16 | Suns v. Bucks -7 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
We think this is a great spot for a double-digit blowout by the home team. The Bucks are a full 10 games better than the Suns in the win column and they have had a disappointing season and fallen below expectations. But they are the much better team here in this matchup. The Bucks have had a tough stretch lately. They have lost five straight. They have had an incredibly tough schedule, however, since all of their last seven opponents would be in the playoffs if the postseason started today. But that just means we are getting a much better line here than if this team has had some better results on the scoreboard. After losing five straight they have to give a very strong effort here at home. The Suns have had a more favorable schedule lately that has seen them cover some games. This team plays hard despite a lack of talent. But we don’t see them getting up for this game against an out-of-conference opponent that isn’t a playoff team. The Bucks have been very solid in this pointspread range as they are 8-4 ATS of a favorite of 7.5 or fewer points. This is a good chance for the Bucks to get back on track and they have had three days off to prepare for this game and rest, and there’s no reason to think we won’t see the best effort from Milwaukee tonight. |
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03-29-16 | Hornets -11.5 v. 76ers | Top | 100-85 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
The Hornets already beat Philly by 20 on this same court earlier this month and we don’t see why this one will be any different. Charlotte is quietly playing some of the best basketball in the Eastern Conference and this team continues to be underrated. In fact, they won both meetings in this series by 20 or more points. Philly has covered three straight, but those were all on the road. This team is just 15-20-1 ATS at home this season. They are often overvalued at home where most teams have a great home-court advantage. We just don’t see that big of an edge for Philly at home with the apathetic fans and not many more wins (6) than they have on the road (3). This is the first game back after a four-game road trip for Philly, and that is traditionally a bad spot for a young team like this that’s not mentally tough. Charlotte has had a couple days off and we expect a big game from them tonight. |
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03-28-16 | Celtics v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 90-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
The Clippers have won two straight and they looked very impressive vs. the Nuggets yesterday. Even though they are on a back-to-back they played very early Sunday in the matinee and this is the latest game on the board Monday so they will have plenty of time to recharge. Of course, Doc Rivers used to coach for the Celtics and by all accounts he is very well liked by his Clippers players and there’s no doubt they will want to play hard for him against his old team. And no doubt the Clippers are a lot better team than the Celtics and this line indicates home-court advantage and not much more. Even though Blake Griffin isn’t back on the court yet, he will be soon and we think that gave the Clippers an extra spark on Sunday and we think that will carry over here. The Celtics have had a very easy schedule lately that has masked some of their deficiencies but we don’t think this team is in top form right now. |
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03-25-16 | Raptors v. Rockets | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
We think the Raptors are the much better team in this matchup and we expect them to take care of business here on the road. These teams played earlier this month in Toronto and the Rockets scored a big road win. Revenge doesn’t factor into our handicapping much for NBA but it does play into things when the previous matchup was recent like this one. But other than that game Toronto has covered in four of the last six meetings. This team is very solid on the road and they actually have the same amount of wins on the road that Houston has at home. Toronto is coming off an embarrassing loss at Boston and they will be eager to play better here against a very beatable opponent. The Rockets have lost three straight and are just not playing well right now. And this team is also one of the worst ATS teams in the league this season. |
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03-24-16 | Pelicans v. Pacers -12.5 | Top | 84-92 | Loss | -113 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
The Pacers have dominated this series with nine straight wins. They have covered in eight straight meetings covering more than four years time. The Pelicans will be without their three best players here. Tyreke Evans is out for the season. Anthony Davis has been recently shut down. Ryan Anderson is out indefinitely and is likely to be shut down soon. When Jrue Holiday is your go-to man, you know you have problems. The Pacers are in the thick of the logjam in the Eastern Conference playoff picture and they need to keep winning in order to solidify their position. They have a big chance to create some separation here with this game and also a road game at Brooklyn on Saturday. The Pelicans have not played well as a big underdog, cashing in just 30 percent of those games with a 3-7 ATS mark. This team stunk even when it was healthy but without these key players and having Davis shelved for the remainder of the season, what motivation does the rest of the team have to rise up here against an out-of-conference opponent? Healthy Pacers win big here. |
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03-23-16 | Clippers +10 v. Warriors | Top | 98-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
The Clippers are one of the few teams that match up well with the Warriors. They are the last team to beat Golden State in a playoff series and this is their biggest rival. They have covered in four of the last six meetings and we love them getting these big points tonight. We think this will be a close game. The Clippers have lost four of six and haven’t been playing well but they always get up for this matchup and we expect them to bring their A Game tonight as this will be their only chance to avoid a Warriors sweep on the regular season. Golden State didn’t look very good in their last two games in a loss at San Antonio and a close win at Minnesota. It’s hard for a team to keep up that killer instinct all season long and this team looks a bit vulnerable right now. The Clippers are one of the teams that has what it takes to win at Oracle. Not saying they will win here, but we think this will be a very competitive game. |
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03-22-16 | Grizzlies v. Lakers OVER 202 | Top | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
Four of the last five meetings in this series have gone well over the posted number. The Grizzlies are playing faster with all the injuries they have dealt with lately. Their offense is playing well and they have gone over 102 in three of their last four games. The Lakers are one of the worst defensive teams in the league and we don’t see any problem with the Grizzlies getting well over the century mark tonight. Memphis is on a back-to-back here and their defense should not be up to its normal level, especially on the road. The over is 13-3 in the Grizzlies last 16 games against teams with a record below .400 because those teams normally don’t play any defense and the Grizzlies offense is better than perceived by the public and therefore the numbers are normally too low in these situations. We think that is the case tonight. |
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03-21-16 | Grizzlies v. Suns OVER 204 | Top | 103-97 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Memphis played really well last time out against a better defensive team than this one they face tonight as they put up 113 on the LA Clippers. They played really fast in that game and even though they are dealing with a lot of injuries the lineups they had on the floor and the pace worked for them and we see no reason they change it up tonight. The Suns are a team that likes to run, too, and the pace here should be fast for both teams. The bookies keep the Grizzlies totals low because of this team’s reputation as a defensive club but the over is 39-30-1 for them this season. The Suns have won two straight against the Grizzlies and they put up 111 and 109 points, so we think they will be able to score here. We see both teams getting over 100 here and there is a good chance both teams get well over the century mark as both meetings have gone well above the posted number. |
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03-20-16 | Jazz v. Bucks -1 | Top | 94-85 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
These teams are pretty even except for the fact that the Bucks are really good at home (21-13) and the Jazz are really bad on the road (11-23).Milwaukee is quietly playing very well right now. They have won four of their last five games. Utah has won three of four, but their road victory in that stretch was over struggling Sacramento and they showed their true road colors last night in a loss to also-struggling Chicago. So Utah isn’t good on the road and they have to play a back-to-back here on the road in an earlier-than-normal start. And Milwaukee is well rested as they have had two nights off and have generally played a very light schedule lately. The Bucks can pretty much kiss their playoff hopes goodbye if they lose this game and we expect them to play strong at home in what is a bad spot for the visitors. |
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03-19-16 | Warriors v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 79-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Golden State is mortal on the road where they have lost six games this season. The Spurs are immortal at home where they are 34-0 this season. This is a major revenge spot for the Spurs after their beat down in the Bay Area in January. Revenge isn’t a big handicapping factor for us in the NBA but when it’s a team like the Spurs getting beat up like that you know they will have a chip on their shoulder. We are helped here in the fact that the Warriors have a back-to-back here. They used a lot of energy in their big win last night in Dallas and they are going to need everything they have here. And not only are the Warriors on a back-to-back but they have a couple key injuries as Bogut and Iguodala will both miss this game so they aren’t at full strength while the Spurs are completely healthy with a blank injury list. The Spurs have covered in five of the last seven meetings and we love their chances for a signature win tonight. |
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03-18-16 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 214.5 | Top | 95-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Get ready for a barnburner here. These are two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA and we expect a glorified game of street ball here with no defense being played whatsoever for teams that are fighting for the most balls in the NBA Draft lottery and not much else. Do these teams even want to win this one? NBA teams can always score, but defense takes effort. And we don’t expect to see any effort here tonight. The Suns allow 100+ pretty much every game but lately they have allowed 116+ in three of their last five games. The Lakers are a tad better on defense this season as they allow only 107 per game. We think both teams here will allow more than their season average and this total should have been in the 220s. Neither of these offenses is that good, but when there is a total lack of D even the scrubbiest of NBA players can score in bunches. |
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03-17-16 | Wizards -9.5 v. 76ers | Top | 99-94 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
The Sixers are always overvalued at home. This team is 13-19-1 at home this season. The oddsmakers give them too much credit for home-court advantage. At 6-27 at home the fans don’t have a lot to cheer about. So Philly is getting some extra credit from the oddsmakers for being at home here. The Wizards are also getting dinged for being on a back-to-back. We don’t think those two factors will matter and we expect a big game from the Wizards here. The dog days of the summer are over. The Wizards are a good team that has been a disappointment this season. They are currently in the 10th position in the playoff race in the Eastern Conference, a couple games back from the eight seed. They can’t overlook a game like this and take the night off like they have so many times this season. They need to win and win big here. Being the eight seed in the east is not a death sentence like in the west as the east is pretty wide open this season. But the Wizards have to make their playoff push now. And this team has been playing excellent basketball. They beat the Bulls by 21 last night and the Pistons by 43 on Monday. This team is healthy, unlike the Sixers who stink with a full roster but are really banged up now, and they are playing incredibly well on offense. That’s a bad sign for the Sixers, who have given up 256 points in their last two games. The Sixers don’t have much reason to play better than they have been tonight and the Wizards have every reason to win this one big. Oh yeah, and the Wiz Kids are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Philly. |
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03-16-16 | Clippers +3 v. Rockets | Top | 122-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a big rivalry now after last year’s playoff series that saw the Rockets come back from 3-1 down in the series and down big late in Game 5 to come back and win it in Game 7. It has been tough going lately for the Clippers who have been blown out in three of their last four games. But those games were all against teams that were very strong in OKC, San Antonio and Cleveland. The Cavs game was an off game and the Spurs game was very close heading into the fourth quarter before the Spurs started hitting all their shots and the Clips went cold. But they face a step down in competition here and the Rockets aren’t as good as they have been in the past. This team has been a very poor betting team this season at 30-37 ATS. They are often overvalued here at home where they are 13-19 ATS, and we feel that is the case tonight. LA is 8-5 straight up on back-to-backs this season so we are not too worried about fatigue. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a loss so they normally bounce back strong. After two blowouts and facing a lesser opponent they will likely go all out tonight to get a win here. We actually have the Clippers as a slight favorite in this one and even if they do lose we just don’t see a blowout here tonight. So the spread could come into play if they don’t play as well as we expect them to. But we do think they will win this one straight up. The Rockets have not done well against teams that play well on the road and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five against teams with a winning road record. |
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03-15-16 | Clippers +9 v. Spurs | Top | 87-108 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
The Clippers match up well with the Spurs and they have won three of the last four meetings, including that blowout right after the all-star break. LA played one of their worst games of the season last time out at home vs. Cleveland, but they have been very good after a loss and they will be anxious to put that game behind them with a solid performance here tonight. This is just too many points and a very public line. The Clippers have a pretty bad rap and the public has lost confidence in them since Blake Griffin went down, but this team has been playing overall very well and they are competitive on a nightly basis save for a rare off game. The Clippers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after a loss. This is the most points the Clippers have gotten all season as a dog and we think there is very nice value on the underdog here. |
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03-14-16 | Pelicans v. Warriors -15 | Top | 107-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Golden State has won big and covered in all of the last three meetings and tonight they face a broken and demoralized New Orleans team that has dropped three straight and seen This team is now closer to the bottom of the standings in the conference than the playoff hunt and we think we are going to see some more bad play down the stretch run of the season from this group. They are in way over their heads tonight. Anthony Davis is a great young player, but the key word is “young” and he just doesn’t have enough experience to put this team on his shoulders down the stretch and they don’t have a lot of leader types on this team so this is one to go against down the stretch. The Warriors are getting back to their dominating ways lately and have had a couple blowouts in recent games and we expect to see the best from this team tonight against a very familiar opponent. |
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03-12-16 | Pelicans v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
This is a real bad spot for the Pelicans tonight. Not only do they come in on a back-to back after a grueling overtime game last night against physical Memphis, but this will be their third game in four nights. On the other hand, the Bucks have had two nights off to rest and prepare for this game and we think they will come out and play a solid game here. This team has been good at home lately where they have won three of five. One of those losses was to OKC and one was a close one to Indiana. But they face a step down in competition here from those games and we think this is a real good spot for a rested team to do their best work tonight. The Pelicans are just 3-10 on back-to-backs this season and they do not play well in these situations and while both teams are banged up the Pelicans have a worse injury situation and the Bucks are flat out undervalued tonight. |
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03-11-16 | Knicks v. Clippers -10 | Top | 94-101 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
The Clippers have been great at bouncing back from losses lately where they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight after a loss. They lost a bad one to OKC last time out, now they are back home against a way inferior opponent and we expect them to play well and win big here. The Clippers have dominated this series the last few years. They have won seven straight meetings by double digits and they have covered in all but one of those, where they missed the cover by just half a point. LA has played a pretty light schedule lately with no back-to-backs and they have a big rest advantage over the Knicks, who were off last night but were on a back-to-back Tuesday and Wednesday so this will be their third game in four nights. This team just hasn’t been playing well consistently and we think this is a real bad spot for them tonight. |
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03-09-16 | Knicks +2 v. Suns | Top | 128-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
The Suns are the worst team in basketball and no way they should be a favorite over anyone right now. In fact, this team is 4-9 ATS when laying four or fewer points this season. Yes, interim coach Earl Watson has this team playing hard and they pulled a couple upsets lately, but this team should suffer in the role of the favorite tonight. The Knicks aren’t very good but they are at least one tier up from the Suns. We had them as a slight favorite in this one, even on a back-to-back. New York is 8-6 ATS on back-to-backs this season so we don’t see the lack of rest as such a big deal. The Suns lost their two best players to injury and while this starting unit has some young talent, there is a lot less established talent than with the visitors tonight and the Knicks still have Carmelo Anthony, who is the best player by far on the court and a player that can dominate a team like the Suns. The wrong team is favored here. |
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03-08-16 | Hawks v. Jazz -1.5 | Top | 91-84 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Stock is down on Utah right now as they have lost five of six games. However, four of those games were on the road and one of the two home games was against the Spurs. This is one of the many NBA teams that is a different team at home than on the road. This team is very good at home and we think they bounce back here in what is a very winnable game. The Hawks have been playing well but they are in the fourth game of a five-game road trip and this trip has seemed to go a little too well for them so we think there is a chance they are due for a bad game. Utah already beat Atlanta on the road this season and they have covered in three of the last four meetings. This game is much more important for the Jazz who are just on the outside of the playoff picture and we think they score a big home win tonight. |
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03-07-16 | Magic v. Warriors -14.5 | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
The Warriors suffered a rare loss last night to the LA Lakers. This wasn’t a sign of anything wrong with this team or that they are weakened somehow. They simply had a bad game and some cold shooting. This is a long NBA season and all the best teams will have a game like that now and again. The Warriors make less of a habit of it than most. This is one of the most motivated and driven teams we have ever watched in the NBA and there is no doubt they will play a lot better here tonight against another very inferior opponent. Golden State is 11-4 ATS in back-to-backs and they are one of the best in the league in these situations so it doesn’t bother us in the least that they are playing a B-2-B here. In fact, with their stellar B-2-B results and the fact they suffered such a bad loss last night indicates they are due for a big bounce back here. These teams met a couple weeks ago in Orlando and the Warriors won by 16. They shot better than 60 percent from the field in that game and that is a bad sign for Orlando tonight after the Warriors were cold last night. We expect some very hot shooting here from the home team. Orlando is coming off a near 20-point loss to Phoenix last time out. That is probably the worst team in the NBA right now. This team has just not been playing well lately and their defense is horrible and we think GSW will be very motivated tonight after the bad one on Sunday. We will give the Warriors a mulligan and expect a huge bounce back effort from them tonight. |
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03-06-16 | Blazers v. Pistons +1 | Top | 103-123 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
Portland has been playing really well for the last month or so but since this team has been getting some buzz the odds have been overadjusted on some of their games, and we think that is the case here as we had this game handicapped at Detroit -3.5 and we would have leaned to the home team at that number. So we think there is a ton of value in this current line. This is the last game of a six-game road trip for Portland and they have lost the last two games, so you can tell they are ready to get home. Detroit has lost two straight as well but those were both on the road and one was to the Spurs. Before that they had won and covered four straight, including three double-digit wins (including one vs. Toronto) and also a eight-point road win at Cleveland. This Detroit team is very solid and even though they come in on a back-to-back they are 7-6 ATS in these situations this season so we don’t think it will be a problem. |
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03-05-16 | Hawks v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 107-97 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
We love the way the Clippers have been playing lately and this team seems determined to make up for their slow start on the season. They just keep winning and covering lines, and the bookies have been slow to adjust their lines for this team. LA is well rested here as they have had two nights off and the Hawks come into this one on a back-to-back (6-9 ATS on back-to-backs). The Clippers have done their best work this season as a marginal favorite and they are 14-6 ATS as a favorite of less than six points. Most of those games are here at Staples Center against weaker opponents like is the case tonight. We thought this line should have been closer to 7.5 or 8.0, and we think there is some great value with the home team tonight as we think a rested Clippers team takes care of business comfortably in this one. |
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03-04-16 | Wolves v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 101-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
The Timberwolves are trending heavily to the over lately. Ten of their last 12 games have gone over the posted total and a reason for that is that this team has given up any effort on defense. Six of their last nine games have seen the opponent score 110+, and we expect Milwaukee to have a big game on offense and they can basically pick their score tonight. The Bucks are in fine form offensively and recently put up 128 on Houston. They have also given up 100+ in six straight games on defense. We think points will come in bunches tonight and we think both teams get well over the century mark and we think this line is too low for the home team. We think Milwaukee will have a huge night on offense and the T-Wolves will make up the difference to get this one over the posted number. |
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03-03-16 | Suns +14 v. Heat | Top | 92-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
Will take a shot with the Suns again here on Thursday night. Yes, Phoenix stinks. But the more they lose the bigger the odds get, and that creates value. The Heat are a strong defensive team. But they win a lot of low-scoring games. Hard to trust them to cover the big number here tonight. In fact, this team is just 1-6 ATS when laying seven or more points this season. The Heat have played down to their level of opposition a lot this season at home, and that is why they have had such a bad ATS mark against lousy teams here. The Suns are coming off a really bad effort last time in Charlotte and that loss was one of the worst of the season. But this is an NBA team and they have an interim coach in Earl Watson who will get a better effort out of his team tonight. Of course the Heat are without Chris Bosh right now and that hurts this team’s chances to cover the big number. We don’t think either team will do anything special on offense and expect a low-scoring game here, which makes the points with the underdog all the more valuable. |
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03-02-16 | Thunder v. Clippers -2 | Top | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
This is a big look-ahead spot for the Thunder, who play Golden State tomorrow on TNT. That game on Saturday was one of the best of the year and the Thunder lost it in heartbreaking fashion. They have to be licking their chops to get another chance in the Bay Area tomorrow and this game is probably an afterthought to them. The Clippers have been sneaky good lately. They just keep winning games and covering spreads while waiting for Blake Griffin to rejoin the team. They have played well in this series and have covered the last two meetings. This team is 9-2 ATS as a small favorite this season and they normally get the job done in these situations. The Thunder are one of the worst ATS teams this season and we think that this is another spot where they are being overrated. |
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03-02-16 | Jazz v. Raptors UNDER 192 | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
These are two of the Top 5 defenses in the NBA for points allowed and you have to love a total in the 190s here in what looks to be a very low-scoring game. These teams met in Utah in November and the total reached only 182, and we think we could see that same type of game tonight. The Jazz have not played well on offense the last few games, averaging only around 86 per in their last three. This team does not play as well on the road as they do at home. Remember, they are only 9-19 on the road this season. We think both teams will struggle to score but we think Utah will really struggle and expect them to finish around 92 or fewer points. We see the Raptors, a much better overall team and a very good home team, winning comfortably in a low-scoring game. Toronto has covered in five straight meetings here and we see more of the same results on Wednesday. |
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03-01-16 | Suns +12.5 v. Hornets | Top | 92-126 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
This is way too many points for the Hornets to be laying tonight, even against a team like the Suns. Charlotte has lost two of three, so they are not in good form right now. This is the first home game for them after a long road trip, and that is always a trouble spot for big favorites. The Hornets have not been good as a big favorite this season as they are 3-6 ATS when laying five or more points. They are just 3-5 ATS at home against sub-.500 teams this season. The Suns should come into this game with a lot of confidence after knocking off Memphis at home last time out. They also played the Spurs and Warriors very tough recently and covered in both of those contests. They have had two nights off to prepare for this game so they should be primed to play their best. Phoenix has a very strong history in this series as they are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Charlotte. They have won the last two meetings (and six of the last seven), including one this season in January in Phoenix by nine points. We feel the road team is in a nice position to succeed tonight and they will keep this one within double digits. |
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02-29-16 | Nets v. Clippers OVER 209.5 | Top | 95-105 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Brooklyn is playing at a speeded-up tempo and the oddsmakers have been slow to react. Six of their last nine games have gone over the posted number since they started running more. Their offense is averaging nearly 105 PPG during that stretch and that is about eight points over their season average. And, of course, a faster pace means more scoring for the offense as well. And that bodes well for a Clippers offense that averages nearly 106 PPG at home on the season. We think the underdog is the clear play here. The Clippers are 4-8 ATS when laying nine or more points this season so they don’t do well against these big lines. The Nets are 11-7 ATS when getting nine or more and they are 11-5 ATS against top competition on the road. They have also covered in seven of the last eight meetings. |
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02-28-16 | 76ers +9.5 v. Magic | Top | 116-130 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
Just don’t think that this Orlando team should be laying this many points to anyone. There is value in the visiting Sixers tonight. Orlando just hasn’t been good in the favorite role this season and they are 1-6 ATS when laying five or more points. The Magic are just 6-19 since the new year and that is not the type of team you want to lay big chalk with, even against a team like Philly. But this is a very winnable road game for the Sixers. These teams played less than a week ago and the game was very close throughout. The Magic finally pulled away in the fourth quarter and won by nine (they outscored the Sixers by five in the fourth) but it was a close game throughout, and since these teams played so recently we think that gives the underdog a better chance since they will be able to make adjustments. |
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02-27-16 | Blazers -4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 103-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
No Derrick Rose tonight. No Butler. Of course, no Noah. Without the core of the team this Chicago team is below average. Heck, even with these guys in the lineup this team has been a big disappointment. Even though the Blazers lost last time out vs. Houston this team had won six straight prior to that loss, including a blowout at home against the Warriors. This team has been underrated all season and they are playing their best basketball of the season right now and really coming together as a team. The Bulls have been one of the worst ATS teams all season long and this team keeps getting too much respect from the oddsmakers because of the name on the jersey. Unless Rose miraculously plays this line is a gift and even if he does take the court we expect the road team to control this one and score the pretty easy win. |
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02-26-16 | Hornets v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 96-95 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
Revenge isn’t normally a big handicapping factor for us when it comes to the NBA, but we think it will come into play big time here tonight in Indiana. Earlier this month, on this same floor, the Hornets came in and embarrassed Indiana with a 22-point win in the first meeting of the season between these teams. There is no doubt Indiana has had this game circled since then. Indiana has been playing very well lately. They will come into this one with a lot of confidence after winning five of their last seven, including a road win at OKC. Charlotte had won five straight recently but they had a momentum killer last time out in a loss at Cleveland where they played very flat the entire game. Once a big streak like that is snapped teams tend to go back to their normal nightly effort. That’s why wins and losses often come in waves in the NBA. Charlotte is one of those teams that is very good at home and really lousy at home. They are just 10-18 on the road. Indiana is 18-9 at home. Indiana has also been very good against teams with winning records when at home as they are 10-4 ATS in these situations. We expect this to be a comfortable win for the home squad tonight. |
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02-25-16 | Spurs -3 v. Jazz | Top | 96-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
The Spurs have by far the best defense in the NBA this season as they hold opponents to less than 93 points per game. The Jazz are one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA. They also have a strong defense, but the Spurs can score on offense. They have a lot of edges in this matchup all over the court and on the sideline in Coach Popovich as well. Kawhi Leonard is back in the lineup for the Spurs and he is their best player now. He will be a difference maker tonight, and we think there is a good chance for a blowout here. Yes, the Spurs are on a back-to-back, but they got an easy win last night and they are 11-0 in back-to-backs this season (7-4 ATS). They had two nights off before last night’s game so they should be fine here as far as fatigue. Both meetings thus far this season were major Spurs blowouts and we think the bookies are giving the Jazz way to much credit tonight. |
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02-24-16 | Nuggets +10.5 v. Clippers | Top | 87-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Denver has lost three straight but this team recently covered 11 of 12 games and they are undervalued again here. We thought that this line should be closer to eight points and we think there is a very good chance that this will be a close game. The Clippers are a very public team and even though they have played well to come out of the break one of those wins was against Phoenix and the blowout against the Spurs was more of an off game for San Antonio than a great one for LA. But Denver has lost by more than 10 only once in the last five meetings and they always tend to play well in this series. They have also been playing very well on offense and they should be able to score enough points to keep this one close and be in a position to win this one late. We think the total is about five points too low and expect this one to be a barnburner at Staples Center. |
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02-21-16 | Lakers +7 v. Bulls | Top | 115-126 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
This is the worst version of this Bulls team that we have seen in years and there is no way they should be laying this many points to anyone, even the Lakers. Chicago has been one of the worst bets in the NBA this season at 21-33 ATS. They are 10-17 ATS here at home and 3-8 ATS at home against losing teams. LA comes into this game very healthy and this team has been scrappy lately with six straight covers. This is a team that is playing hard every game lately but they keep losing so their spreads are staying honest. We think the home team is overvalued again tonight and we expect a close game here and think the Lakers have a really good chance to win this one straight up. |
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02-19-16 | Nuggets v. Kings UNDER 217.5 | Top | 110-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
These aren’t very good defensive teams, there is no doubt about that. But this total is just way too high. Pro bettors bet this one down from an opener of 218, but this line is still too high and there is some very nice value here for teams that could be rusty heading back from the all-star break. All three games Thursday went under as teams tried to get their rhythm back and we expect the under to be a strong play across the board here in Sacramento. Coach Karl is on the hot seat in Sacramento and one of the main reasons is defense. This team has been very lousy in that aspect. But they have to get better. Karl got a reprieve and some extra time to figure things out and we think this team starts playing better on the defensive end in the second half of the season. Karl’s job literally depends on it. Denver is not a good offensive team and they can really struggle on any given night. It’s just hard to believe both teams will have a big game here offensively enough to get this one over the posted number. |
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02-18-16 | Spurs -4.5 v. Clippers | Top | 86-105 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
We don’t think the Clippers are any match for a well-rested Spurs team here on Thursday night. Yes, LA has been playing much better since Blake Griffin first went out with injury. They, however, haven’t had a very challenging schedule during that stretch, and they didn’t perform great against the best competition. Let’s look at their toughest games: at Boston (OT loss), at Atlanta (2-point win), at Indiana (2-point win), at Toronto (blowout loss), at Cleveland (blowout loss), vs. Houston (OT win). They will face a huge step up in talent tonight against the Spurs. Now let’s look at how the Clippers have done this season against the NBA’s best: vs. OKC (one-point loss), at San Antonio (8-point loss), vs. Golden State (seven-point loss), at Golden State (four-point loss). And Griffin was playing in those games. Yes, the team has done well without Griffin but that came against some questionable competition. This team hasn’t done well with Griffin in the lineup against the best teams and they are just not as good of a team without him despite what their recent record might indicate. We think they are outmatched tonight. The Spurs don’t need much motivation to play well, but they will want to start the second half of the season strong with a marquee win here. The Spurs always play well here in LA and have covered in five of the last seven meetings and they have covered in five of the last seven overall. Add in some unprecedented rest and that tilts the needle further in the Spurs favor here. The Spurs are one of the best teams to bet on this season and have compiled a 34-19 ATS record, and they are often undervalued on the road (15-10 ATS). The Clips are just 4-6 ATS at home against winning teams, and just that small sample size shows that they haven’t been tested a lot here. The Spurs are a much better overall team and this line is right tonight. |
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02-11-16 | Pelicans v. Thunder -12 | Top | 95-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
We think the Thunder are the clear play of the week in this spot tonight. They have won 15 of their last 18 games and are playing as well as anyone in the league right now. A win here would get them to 40 wins before the all-star break, and that will be huge motivation. They will also be motivated by the death of Ingrid Williams, the wife of assistant Monty Williams. By all accounts she was very special to the team and they will no doubt play this game in her honor. And their opponent tonight is the Pelicans, the team that fired Williams as he was their head coach for quite awhile. Regardless of those angles the Thunder are just a vastly superior team here. This is the second-best offensive team in the NBA, and the Pelicans have one of the worst defenses. We don’t think they will be able to keep up here. OKC is well rested having had two nights off while the Pelicans will be playing on the road in a back-to-back and this will be their third game in four nights. Also, news came out yesterday that Tyreke Evans, the Pelicans second-best player, is likely out for the season. And that hurts a team that was already fragile to begin with. Anthony Davis is too young to carry the weight of the entire team on his shoulders. |
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02-10-16 | Warriors v. Suns +17 | Top | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
If the Warriors are ever going to take a game off this is probably it. They can beat the Suns without much effort. This is their last game before the All-Star break and this squad has a lot going on during the break and there won’t be a lot of “rest” involved. Just don’t see them putting in enough effort tonight to cover this huge number on the road. This team has done enough good work for the first half of the season that they deserve to take a night off here. Even if they don’t the Suns should play hard here. There is absolutely no reason for them to relax tonight. They have a new coach and they have been more competitive lately. Every time Golden State comes to town it’s one of the biggest games of the season for any team and that will be the case for the Suns tonight. Phoenix has covered in two of the last four, and while that is not incredibly impressive they did not embarrass themselves in any of those games and they seem to have inspired motivation now that Hornacek is out of the picture. |
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02-09-16 | Jazz v. Mavs -1.5 | Top | 121-119 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
The Jazz have been playing well but they still stink on the road and we think they are a bit overvalued right now. This team is just 8-15 on the road this season, and that is with winning their last two road games, although those wins came over Brooklyn and Phoenix, two of the worst teams in the NBA. They face a step up in class here and we think Dallas wins this one pretty comfortably. Utah has lost 10 straight here in Dallas. They have covered in just one of the last eight meetings overall. Dallas wins and losses seem to come in waves and they recently lost three straight against a tough schedule but they earned a big OT win last time out in Memphis and we think they keep the momentum going here against a hot Utah team that has done most of their solid work lately against a home-heavy schedule. Let’s see how they fare here on the road against a solid Western Conference foe. |
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02-08-16 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Wolves | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
Love this line for the visitors here tonight as we had the Pelicans handicapped at -3 so we think there is incredible value tonight with the wrong team favored. New Orleans has lost four straight but three of those losses came to the Spurs, Cavs and Grizzlies and then the Lakers caught them in a back-to-back after that Spurs matchup. That’s a very tough schedule. The role of favorite has been one of the worst for Minnesota as they have compiled a 4-10 ATS record as favorite this season and they are a lousy 8-17-1 ATS at home. The bookies are down on New Orleans right now but we think they are the better team in this matchup against a team that has shown to have no home-court edge and we think the Pelicans get the win tonight. |
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02-06-16 | Nets v. 76ers -1.5 | Top | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
The Sixers haven’t been favored many times this season but when they have been favorites they have taken care of business with a 2-0 ATS record as favorites. This is a bad spot for Brooklyn. They broke a five-game losing streak with probably their biggest win of the season last night, 128-119 over Sacramento. Now they come in on a back-to-back, on the road, and this is their third game in four nights. Philly is in the same rest situation but being at home is a big advantage here. They are just 2-7 on back-to-backs this season. They used up a lot of energy in that win last night and we think they come out flat on defense here and that will give Philly a big advantage on the offensive end. Philly is 6-3 ATS at home against sub-.500 teams. The Nets are 3-7 ATS as a small underdog of less than three points this season. These teams don’t play good defense in the best of situations but it should be even worse tonight since these teams are fatigued. Offense comes naturally to NBA-level players but defense is something that requires a lot of energy and we don’t see either team playing any D tonight. |
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02-05-16 | Kings v. Nets +5.5 | Top | 119-128 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
Brooklyn has covered in seven of the last eight meetings in this series and once again we think they are getting too many points here. Sacramento is just 8-15 on the road and that is similar to the Nets home record and this is just an inflated line because the public bettors will never take Brooklyn in this scenario. Sacramento was hot but they have cooled off big time lately and are more like the Kings we have become accustomed to. They have won just one of their last six games and their only cover was in that win over Milwaukee. Brooklyn has covered two of their last three games and this team has been competitive and we think they are undervalued again tonight. |
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02-04-16 | Knicks v. Pistons -4 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
The Pistons have dropped three of four, but look who they lost to: vs. Cleveland, at Toronto and at Boston. They didn’t embarrass themselves in any of those games. They will be desperate to get back on the winning track here on national TV. In fact, this is the team’s first home game on TNT in years, so they will want to play their best, and we think they bring their A Game tonight. This spread pretty much counts for home-court advantage but we think the Pistons are a much better squad with a much higher upside. We think this line has some very nice value. The Knicks are not playing well right now and have dropped six of their last seven. Four of those losses were by double digits and the lone win was vs. Phoenix, who is making a case for the worst team in the NBA. Detroit is a very good ATS team at home (15-7-1 on the season) and they are a perfect 7-0 ATS at home against teams with a losing record. |
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