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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-05-23 | Maryland +6.5 v. Rutgers | 50-64 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Maryland plus the points over Rutgers at 6:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab all the points I can get with Maryland here as it looks to snap a two-game ATS skid against a Rutgers squad that has won four in a row both SU and ATS. We missed the mark fading the Scarlet Knights last time out, but that was as big underdogs at Purdue. Off that upset victory, I do see fit to against Rutgers again here. Note that Maryland has faced the 100th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. Rutgers checks in 179th by the same strength of schedule metric. The Terps shot a miserable 26.5% from the field in their last game - a blowout loss at Michigan. I don't think it will be difficult to put that uncompetitive affair behind them and rebound here. Take Maryland (8*). |
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01-04-23 | Nets v. Bulls +5.5 | Top | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Nets look unstoppable right now having won 12 straight games. I don't think we'll see Chicago back down easily on Wednesday, however, noting that the Bulls already defeated the Nets in Brooklyn this season and have taken three of four matchups in this series going back to the start of last season. The Bulls are fresh off a tough overtime loss against the Cavs on Monday as Cleveland got an other-worldly performance from Donovan Mitchell. At 5-2-1 ATS over its last eight games, Chicago does continue to play well. Here, I think the Nets are in for a letdown after absolutely shooting the lights out (60% or better from the field) in consecutive games. While Chicago is just an even 9-9 on its home floor this season, it has managed to outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.1 points. The Nets are 12-7 on the road but outscore opponents by just 1.9 points on average. I simply feel the Bulls are catching too many points here. Take Chicago (10*). |
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01-04-23 | New Mexico State +2.5 v. Stephen F Austin | 60-69 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Mexico State plus the points over Stephen F. Austin at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. This one sets up nicely for New Mexico State as it hits the road on the heels of consecutive losses SU and four in a row ATS. The sky is not falling for the Aggies, however, noting that they've faced an incredibly tough schedule this season - 58th most difficult in the nation according to KenPom. They're just 1-3 SU in true road games but 2-1-1 ATS with a pair of losses by three points or less. Stephen F. Austin is coming off four consecutive SU wins and two in a row ATS. Note that the Lumberjacks have faced the 284th toughest schedule in the country this season. They're a woeful 3-12 ATS when coming off two ATS wins in their last three games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. I like the fact that the Aggies, despite facing the much tougher schedule, have proven to be the better defensive team, holding opponents to the same number of made field goals per game (23) despite allowing five more field goal attempts per contest compared to SFA. Note that the road team took both meetings between these two squads last season. Take New Mexico State (8*). |
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01-04-23 | Miami-FL v. Georgia Tech +6.5 | Top | 70-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Miami at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this spot sets up for Georgia Tech as it looks to snap Miami's nine-game winning streak on Wednesday night. The Hurricanes roll in red hot off consecutive ATS wins, including an outright underdog win over Virginia and most recently a double-digit road victory against Notre Dame. Still, we'll note that the Canes have faced just the 132nd most difficult schedule in the country this season while Georgia Tech has gone against the 70th toughest slate of opponents (according to KenPom). The Yellow Jackets will obviously be amped up for this matchup as they check in off consecutive blowout home losses against Clemson and Virginia. Things won't get any easier after this game with road tilts against Florida State and Notre Dame on deck. This is undoubtedly a matchup the Jackets have had circled after dropping both matchups against the Canes last season. Of note, they were listed a just three-point underdogs in last year's home meeting with Miami. Georgia Tech is a long-term 79-53 ATS when coming off a game in which it scored 60 points or less, as is the case here, and also 81-52 ATS when following consecutive losses against conference opponents. Take Georgia Tech (10*). |
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01-04-23 | Tulsa +13.5 v. Tulane | 77-93 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulsa plus the points over Tulane at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The wheels have come off for Tulsa lately as it checks in off three consecutive losses SU and riding an inexplicable 10-game ATS losing skid. I expect the Golden Hurricane to right the ship here, or at the very least give Tulane all it can handle. It's not as if the Green Wave have been rolling. They're just 2-10 ATS over their last 12 contests. While Tulsa hasn't exactly faced the best of the best, ranked 135th in the country in terms of strength of schedule according to KenPom, that's still far better than Tulane, which has faced the 311th most difficult slate of opponents. After getting blasted by 34 points as a short 3.5-point underdog against Tulane last year, I think we can count on Tulsa to bring its best effort here. Take Tulsa (8*). |
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01-03-23 | San Jose State v. Boise State -10 | 64-67 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boise State minus the points over San Jose State at 9 pm et on Tuesday. We'll lay the points with the Broncos as they look to bounce back from consecutive losses (both came on the road) when they host San Jose State on Tuesday. Boise State has lost only four game this season and three of those came away from home. Here in Boise, the Broncos check in 5-1 on the campaign, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 20.4 points. San Jose State rolls in off six straight ATS victories, including three in a row straight-up. All records aren't created equal in college hoops, however, as we note that the Spartans have faced the 194th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. Boise State checks in having gone against the 103rd toughest slate of opponents. The Broncos closed as a 22-point favorite in this same matchup last season. While they failed to cover that lofty pointspread, they still won by a comfortable 16-point margin. Take Boise State (8*). |
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01-03-23 | Virginia -5 v. Pittsburgh | 65-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Pittsburgh at 9 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark fading Pittsburgh in its most recent game as it staged a furious second half rally in an eventual upset win over North Carolina. The Panthers have now reeled off nine consecutive ATS wins but I look for that streak to end here against Virginia. The Cavaliers snapped their seven-game ATS skid with an 18-point road win over Georgia Tech last time out. Note that Virginia has faced the 54th most difficult schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom and has certainly held its own going 10-2 SU, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 11.2 points along the way. Pitt, meanwhile, has faced the country's 140th toughest schedule and while its 7-1 home record is impressive, it is perhaps less so when you consider the victory over North Carolina was the first of note, with it falling by 25 points in its lone previous step-up game at home against West Virginia back in November. Take Virginia (8*). |
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01-03-23 | Wizards v. Bucks -8 | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Washington at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. Handicapping 101 dictates a play on the Bucks here as they host the Wizards in the second of a two-game set in Milwaukee after dropping Sunday's contest by 23 points (without Giannis in the lineup). The fact that Giannis was understandable as 'load management' came in to play following his 43-20 game in a win and cover against the T'Wolves two nights earlier. Milwaukee has admittedly struggled lately, losing five of its last six games, while the Wizards are riding a five-game winning streak. Here, we'll note though that the Wiz are 93-125 ATS when coming off an outright victory as a road underdog going all the way back to 1996. Worse still, they're 20-40 ATS when playing on the road off a double-digit win as an underdog over the same stretch, outscored by an average margin of 10.7 points in that situation. Despite their recent struggles, the Bucks remain a stellar 15-4 SU and 13-6 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.2 points on average. Take Milwaukee (8*). |
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01-03-23 | LSU v. Kentucky -9 | 71-74 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kentucky minus the points over LSU at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Kentucky enters this contest riding an inexplicable 0-7 ATS skid but the Wildcats are favored by a considerable margin for good reason as they host LSU. The Tigers check in off an outright underdog win at Arkansas, snapping a three-game ATS losing streak of their own. Note that LSU has faced the 328th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. While Kentucky hasn't exactly faced a grueling slate, it has gone against the 169th toughest set of opponents. Here, we'll note that Kentucky has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 10.2 points when playing at home after losing consecutive games ATS over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take Kentucky (8*). |
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01-03-23 | Ohio v. Buffalo +1.5 | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Ohio at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up for Buffalo as it looks to rebound after suffering losses in three of its last four games. There's really no shame in that slide as the three losses came against Tulane, West Virginia and Michigan State with none of those contests coming at home. Even against Tulane the Bulls were seven-point underdogs. All told, Buffalo has faced the 23rd most difficult schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom. In stark contrast, Ohio has gone against the 196th toughest slate of opponents. In spite of that, Ohio is just 2-5 on the road while Buffalo checks in 4-1 on its home floor. This is undoubtedly a game the Bulls have had circled since dropping last year's matchup against the Bobcats by an ugly 74-53 score as a 2.5-point home favorite. In fact, Ohio has taken the last two meetings between these MAC schools but that's its longest win streak in this series since winning seven in a row over the Bulls from 2011 to 2014. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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01-03-23 | Marquette v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 96-85 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on St. John's plus the points over Marquette at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Red Storm got off to a hot start this season but check into this matchup on the heels of three straight losses both SU and ATS. Shooting woes have cost them lately but I look for them to get that straightened out against Marquette on Tuesday. While the Golden Eagles have been terrific this season and check in off consecutive victories, including an outright underdog win at Villanova last time out, it's worth noting that they're still just an even 3-3 on the road (they've suffered only four losses the entire season so that's notable). Meanwhile, St. John's is 8-1 at home and will be eager to erase the memory of an 84-79 loss to Xavier the last time it took the floor here on December 28th. Note that the Red Storm are 20-8 ATS when playing at home after losing six or seven of their last eight games ATS going all the way back to 1997, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.6 points in that spot. Take St. John's (10*). |
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01-02-23 | Rutgers v. Purdue -7 | Top | 65-64 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Rutgers at 7 pm et on Monday. The Boilermakers have been absolutely burning bettors for over a month now, going 0-6-1 ATS over their last seven contests going all the way back to November 30th. I expect that slump to end here, however, as they host seemingly red hot Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have reeled off three straight wins both SU and ATS but streaks aren't all created equal. Note that Rutgers has faced the 249th toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. That's in stark contrast to Purdue, which has gone against the 128th most difficult slate of opponents. Both teams are coming off consecutive glorified scrimmages against overmatched opponents. Here, I can't help but feel Rutgers is in for a 'shock to its system' after getting off 67 and 75 field goal attempts in its last two games and now facing a Purdue squad that allows just 56 FG attempts per contest here at home this season. Take Purdue (10*). |
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01-02-23 | Tulane v. USC -1.5 | 46-45 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on USC minus the points over Tulane at 1 pm et on Monday. |
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01-01-23 | USC v. Washington State -1 | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington State minus the points over USC at 3 pm et on Sunday. We won with Washington State in an underdog role on Friday as they fell just a point short of pulling the upset against UCLA. I won't hesitate to come right back with them on Sunday as they stay at home to host USC, which rides a seven-game SU and three-game ATS winning streak, including a double-digit win at Washington on Friday. We'll note again that the Cougars have faced the 20th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. USC has gone against the 128th toughest slate of opponents. Look for Washington State to snap its three-game skid on Sunday. Take Washington State (8*). |
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01-01-23 | Colts v. Giants -5.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Colts are going to be in tough playing on the road on a short week with a seemingly lame duck head coach in Jeff Saturday not to mention a journeyman quarterback nearing the end of his career in Nick Foles. Nothing worked for the Colts in Monday's loss to the Chargers - on either side of the football. Things aren't likely to get any better here as they hit the road to face the playoff-hungry Giants who are coming off a disappointing last-second loss against the Vikings last Sunday. Credit New York for hanging in there despite the red hot Minnesota offense racking up 270 yards through the air on 34 Kirk Cousins pass completions. While it never feels all that comfortable laying more than a field goal with an offensively-limited team such as the Giants, the fact is they've been winning by margin. Since opening the season with consecutive wins by a field goal or less, their last six victories have come by 8, 5, 4, 6, 8 and 8 points. That's four out of six victories by more than the spread we're dealing with this week (at the time of writing) with the other two coming against potential playoff-bound teams in the Packers and Ravens. I like the fact that Giants RB Saquon Barkley should be fresh for this one after a limited workload last Sunday in Minnesota (the Giants ran the football 21 times - their lowest rush attempt total since Thanksgiving in Dallas). Also helping New York's cause is the absence of one of Indianapolis' best defenders in slot corner Kenny Moore. Take New York (10*). |
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12-31-22 | Ohio State +6 v. Georgia | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ohio State plus the points over Georgia at 8 pm et on Saturday. I believe this game has 'instant classic' potential as one-loss Ohio State challenges undefeated Georgia in the Peach Bowl on Saturday night. Ohio State checks in off consecutive ATS losses to end the regular season, including a stunning blowout defeat at the hands of rival Michigan, at home no less, in its finale. It's a much different story for Georgia as it rolled to a 50-30 win over LSU in the SEC Championship Game the last time it took the field earlier this month. Sure, the defending National Champion Bulldogs are undefeated, but they went largely untested over the course of the regular season and SEC Championship Game. This is only the second time all season they've been less than a double-digit favorite. The other occasion came against Tennessee in early November, when the Vols began a late season swoon. Ohio State only managed to cover the spread in one of its last four games from November on but it's worth noting that it forced only one turnover over that stretch. Georgia, for all of its strengths, does check in having turned the football over at least once in six straight and nine of its last 10 games overall. Here, we'll note that the Buckeyes are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games when playing away from home off a home loss and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 contests following a home defeat against a conference opponent. Take Ohio State (8*). |
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12-31-22 | Northern Colorado v. Idaho State | 83-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Northern Colorado over Idaho State at 8 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the Bears as they look to snap their three-game SU and two-game ATS losing streaks on Saturday. Idaho State checks in off consecutive ATS wins, including a 26-point rout of Northern Arizona last time out. Keep in mind, it has faced the 275th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom while Northern Colorado has gone against the 57th toughest slate of opponents. This is a true 'get right' spot for the Bears but isn't being priced like it at all. Take Northern Colorado (8*). |
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12-31-22 | Cal-Riverside v. Long Beach State -2 | 73-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Long Beach State minus the points over Cal-Riverside at 6 pm et on Saturday. We'll back Long Beach State to bounce back here off a tough two-point loss against Cal-San Diego last time out - its second straight ATS defeat. Riverside enters off consecutive wins, both SU and ATS and has faced the slightly tougher schedule this season according to KenPom (seven places higher than LBSU). However, the 49ers have done a considerably better job defensively, allowing just one more made field goal per game on six additional attempts on average. LBSU has also been better offensively, getting off three more field goal attempts per game and making good on all three. Take Long Beach State (8*). |
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12-31-22 | New Mexico v. Wyoming +3.5 | Top | 76-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over New Mexico at 4 pm et on Saturday. Wyoming has more than just held its own against New Mexico in recent years, taking three of four meetings between these two teams since the start of the 2020-21 season. Here, the Cowboys will look to hand the Lobos their first loss of the season, and I'm confident they'll do just that on Saturday afternoon in Laramie. Note that Wyoming enters this game off three consecutive losses both SU and ATS. None of those games were played at home, where the Cowboys have reeled off consecutive wins (both SU and ATS), scoring more than 90 points on each occasion. New Mexico is a perfect 13-0 SU on the campaign and rides a three-game ATS winning streak into this showdown. However, the Lobos have only faced the 264th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. For comparison's sake, Wyoming has faced the 185th toughest slate of opponents. Take Wyoming (10*). |
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12-31-22 | St. Thomas v. South Dakota State -4 | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Dakota State minus the points over St. Thomas at 3 pm et on Saturday. We successfully faded St. Thomas two nights ago as it dropped the cash for the first time in five games in a loss at South Dakota. Here, we'll fade the overvalued side again as it stays on the road to face South Dakota State. Note that St. Thomas checks in having faced the 338th toughest schedule in the nation this season. There's no comparison between these two teams in that regard as South Dakota State has gone against the 21st most difficult slate of opponents this season. You would have to go back five lined games, all the way to December 3rd, to find the last time South Dakota State covered the spread. That changes here. Take South Dakota State (8*). |
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12-31-22 | North Carolina-Asheville v. Winthrop -1.5 | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winthrop minus the points over UNC-Asheville at 2 pm et on Saturday. These two teams check in with opposite records on the campaign but not all records are created equal in college hoops with a large discrepancy in strength of schedule often in place. That's the case here as Asheville has faced the 255th toughest schedule in the country on its way to a 9-5 record while Winthrop has gone 5-9 facing the country's 75th most difficult slate of opponents. Winthrop enters this game riding a four-game losing streak but all four of those setbacks came on the road. Here, it catches UNC-Asheville in a prime letdown spot off a four-point home win (as a -1.5-point favorite) against Radford. We'll lay the short number with the Eagles. Take Winthrop (8*). |
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12-31-22 | Longwood v. Campbell +2 | 67-42 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Campbell plus the points over Longwood at 2 pm et on Saturday. We'll fade Longwood as it hits the road on the heels of three consecutive ATS victories on Saturday. Note that it has faced the 327th toughest schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom. Campbell on the other hand has gone against the 262nd most difficult slate of opponents and is in a prime bounce-back spot here off three consecutive losses (two in a row ATS), returning home following an outright loss as a short road favorite at Presbyterian (it lost that game by only four points). Campbell's last two opponents have shot the lights out but that's unlikely here as Longwood as knocked down less than 43% of its field goal attempts in four of its last five games. Take Campbell (8*). |
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12-31-22 | Western Illinois v. South Dakota -2.5 | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Dakota minus the points over Western Illinois at 2 pm et on Saturday. We won with South Dakota two nights ago as it rolled to a win over St. Thomas. Here, I believe it faces another overvalued side in Western Illinois, which has faced the 307th toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. In stark contrast, South Dakota has gone against the 132nd most difficult slate of opponents. The victory and cover over St. Thomas was South Dakota's first victory, SU or ATS, in its last five contests. I expect it to use that win as a jumping-off point here. Western Illinois checks in off consecutive ATS victories but lost by seven points at South Dakota State two nights back. Look for South Dakota to improve to a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six meetings in this series on Saturday. Take South Dakota (8*). |
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12-31-22 | Iowa -2.5 v. Kentucky | 21-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Iowa minus the points over Kentucky at 12 noon et on Saturday. While the Hawkeyes quarterback situation is a bit of a mess heading into this Bowl rematch against Kentucky, I can't be convinced that anyone in Iowa's QB room represents much of a downgrade from incumbent Spencer Petras. Iowa has completed more than 18 passes in a game only twice this season, to mixed results. While the Hawkeyes will be missing Petras amongst a laundry list of players sitting out, the argument could still be made that they're in better shape than the Wildcats in that regard. Here, we'll fade Kentucky off consecutive ATS wins to close out the regular season as it hung tough against mighty Georgia before laying waste to Louisville. Iowa had been rolling, winning four games in a row both SU and ATS before being stunned by Nebraska as a double-digit favorite on Black Friday. Give me the better defense and perhaps the offense that's better-suited to effectively shorten what shapes up as an ugly one with the total set in the low-30's. Take Iowa (8*). |
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12-30-22 | UCLA v. Washington State +8.5 | Top | 67-66 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington State plus the points over UCLA at 11 pm et on Friday. We'll grab all the points we can get with Washington State in this Pac-12 matchup as the Cougars look to snap their two-game skid - which represents their longest losing streak of the season. Washington State has fallen out of favor with bettors on the heels of three consecutive ATS losses, but I simply feel they're catching too many points here. UCLA has won eight straight games, including three in a row ATS heading in. The Bruins current three-game ATS win streak includes victories over Maryland and Kentucky but I can't help but feel that leaves them overvalued here. Note that while UCLA has faced a tough schedule - 69th most difficult in the nation according to KenPom - Washington State has gone against the 38th toughest. Take Washington State (10*). |
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12-30-22 | Blazers -2.5 v. Warriors | Top | 112-118 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Warriors have inexplicably gone on a three-game winning streak without a number of key contributors including Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins but I look for that run to end here against the Blazers. Portland snapped a three-game losing streak with a home win over Charlotte last time out. This is undoubtedly a game the Blazers have had circled after dropping all three meetings with the Warriors last season, including a 132-95 home loss in their most recent matchup last February. The Warriors have actually allowed their opponents to get off 94, 92 and 91 field goal attempts over the course of their three-game winning streak. Those three opponents just haven't been able to make good on their wealth of opportunities. I don't expect the Blazers to suffer a similar fate tonight. Portland 'got right' offensively last time out, knocking down 43-of-86 FG attempts and should keep it rolling here. Take Portland (10*). |
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12-30-22 | Coppin State +26 v. Rutgers | 57-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Coppin State plus the points over Rutgers at 8 pm et on Friday. I'm not convinced this is the easy layup most are projecting for Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have delivered consecutive ATS wins and that's notable as they've yet to reel off three straight ATS wins at any point this season. Coppin State comes off consecutive ATS losses - also marking its longest such streak of the season. Here, we'll note that Coppin State has faced the 49th most difficult schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom. In stark contrast, Rutgers has gone against the 212th toughest slate. Take Coppin State (8*). |
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12-30-22 | Suns v. Raptors -2 | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Phoenix at 7:40 pm et on Friday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Raptors here as they take the court at home for the second time in as many nights off a less-than-competitive affair against the Grizzlies last night. They're catching the Suns without Devin Booker which is obviously a positive for the hometown Raps. Phoenix has won just four of its last 13 games, largely due to a number of key injuries and off a 25-point rout in Washington, I don't expect it to pick itself up off the mat on Friday. Take Toronto (8*). |
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12-30-22 | Wyoming v. Ohio -2 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ohio minus the points over Wyoming at 4:30 pm et on Friday. Wyoming was already going to be one of the weakest teams to take the field during Bowl season and now with a number of key injuries, transfers and opt-outs the Cowboys are in even rougher shape heading into this matchup with Ohio. While the Bobcats will be without QB Kurtis Rourke, I still like them to rebound following a disappointing loss in the MAC Championship Game against Toledo. It's easy to forget that Ohio had been rolling prior to that setback and I'm confident we'll see it bounce back and end its campaign on a winning note in Arizona on Friday. Take Ohio (8*). |
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12-30-22 | South Carolina v. Notre Dame -3 | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Notre Dame minus the points over South Carolina at 3:30 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with Notre Dame as I'm not buying what South Carolina is selling off consecutive outright underdog wins over Tennessee and Clemson to close out the regular season. While much of the talk surrounds who won't be playing in this contest, the Irish still have a talent-laden squad looking to put a positive cap on an up and down season that most recently saw them fall by double-digits against USC. In a game where I expect both teams to employ a run-centric offensive gameplan, I'll gladly fade a Gamecocks squad that didn't travel well defensively, particularly against the run as they were torched for 5.4 yards per rush away from home. Look for Notre Dame to end Marcus Freeman's first season at the helm on a high note here. Take Notre Dame (8*). |
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12-30-22 | Pittsburgh v. UCLA -7.5 | 37-35 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Pittsburgh at 2 pm et on Friday. The Bruins fell out of favor with many bettors thanks to an 0-3 ATS slide to close out the regular season. After starting the campaign 8-1, UCLA dropped two of its last three games SU to drop from what likely would have been a more prestigious Bowl game as well. I don't expect the Bruins to be short on motivation, however. Both teams are going to be missing a number of key contributors due to transfers and opt-outs, although the argument could be made that the Bruins are in slightly better shape in that regard, as indicated by the pointspread we're dealing with here. We'll lay the points. Take UCLA (8*). |
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12-30-22 | Maryland v. NC State | 16-12 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. State minus the points over Maryland at 12 noon et on Friday. Maryland heads into this Bowl matchup off a 37-0 drubbing of Rutgers. The Terps didn't gain Bowl eligibility until the second-last game of the regular season. On a positive note, Maryland did go an even 6-6 ATS in lined contests during the regular season while N.C. State went a woeful 4-8 ATS. That's largely a product of everyone being so high on the Wolfpack going into this season. They delivered the cash in two of their first three contests and ultimately ended up being overvalued most of the way. That's not the case here as they're in a pk'em price range against Maryland. Here, we'll note that Maryland is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games following a win by 21 or more points against a conference opponent, as is the case here. Take N.C. State (8*). |
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12-30-22 | North Carolina -5.5 v. Pittsburgh | 74-76 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Pittsburgh at 12 noon et on Friday. The Pitt Panthers enter this game riding an incredible eight-game ATS winning streak but I expect it to end here against the mighty Tar Heels of North Carolina. The Tar Heels have faced the much tougher schedule this season - 14th most difficult in the nation according to KenPom. In stark contrast, the Panthers have faced the 199th toughest schedule. North Carolina failed to deliver the cash last time out but just missed in a four-point victory (as a 5.5-point favorite) against Michigan. I expect a more straight-forward result on Friday. Take North Carolina (8*). |
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12-29-22 | St. Thomas v. South Dakota +1.5 | Top | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on South Dakota plus the points over St. Thomas at 8 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this sets up as a bounce-back spot for South Dakota as it enters off a stunningly-poor offensive effort against UMKC. USD has now dropped four games in a row both SU and ATS after opening the campaign with five victories in its first eight contests. St. Thomas on the other hand rolls in riding a four-game winning streak, both SU and ATS. It won its most recent road game by a 76-70 score at Idaho State. Here, we'll note that St. Thomas has yet to register consecutive road victories this season. Meanwhile, South Dakota has outscored opponents by an average margin of 9.1 points in its last nine home games when coming off an upset loss, as is the case here. Take South Dakota (10*). |
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12-29-22 | Florida Atlantic v. North Texas -2 | 50-46 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Texas minus the points over Florida Atlantic at 8 pm et on Thursday. This is a 'shock to the system' spot for Florida Atlantic as it hits the road for the first time since December 4th, riding a 10-game winning streak (9-0 ATS) and facing one of the best defensive teams in the country in North Texas. The Mean Green Eagles are hot as well, winners of five straight games and two in a row ATS. You would have to go all the way back to November 13th - UNT's first game of the season - to find the last time it allowed an opponent to make good on 20 or more field goals. Also note that North Texas has faced the far tougher schedule according to KenPom - 146th compared to 285th - in this matchup. The Owls winning streak grinds to a halt here. Take North Texas (8*). |
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12-29-22 | Clippers v. Celtics -6 | 110-116 | Push | 0 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Clippers have been one of the best bets in the league in recent weeks but we'll fade them here as they head to Boston off consecutive ATS victories on their current five-game road trip. Note that the Celtics are hot as well, winners of three straight games both SU and ATS. I don't think there's any letdown in order for the C's here as they dropped their lone previous matchup with the Clippers this season by a whopping 20 points in Los Angeles. With the Clips having allowed their last three opponents to make good on 47, 44 and 43 field goals, I think the Celtics are catching them at the right time here. Boston cleaned things up defensively last time out, holding Houston to just 38 made field goals on 95 attempts. On the flip side, the C's have knocked down 44, 50 and 43 field goals over their last three contests. Look for them to keep rolling on Thursday. Take Boston (8*). |
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12-29-22 | Providence v. Butler -1.5 | 72-52 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Butler minus the points over Providence at 6:30 pm et on Thursday. While Providence is the hotter team right now, there's actually only two games separating these two teams this season, despite the fact that Butler has faced the far more difficult schedule (according to KenPom). While Providence has faced the 294th most difficult schedule so far, Butler checks in having gone against the 40th toughest slate. Here, we'll fade the Friars as they come off a 103-point effort against Marquette - their fifth consecutive SU and ATS victory. Butler is in a prime bounce-back spot at home after losing its last two games, with both of those defeats coming in blowout fashion. Take Butler (8*). |
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12-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Florida State -9 | 32-35 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Oklahoma at 5:30 pm et on Thursday. I simply feel that Oklahoma has too many key losses to overcome on offense in order to keep pace with one of the more underrated offensive teams in the country this season in Florida State. We actually won fading the Seminoles with the rival Florida Gators in their regular season finale. That was a back-and-forth contest that the 'Noles took over in the second half and we were probably fortunate to cash our ticket with Florida. Oklahoma will have to make do without RB Eric Gray and a pair of critical offensive linemen in Wanya Morris and Anton Harris, with that trio opting-out of this Bowl game. I would anticipate the Sooners scaling back their offense somewhat with those absences in mind, not a good thing when you're trying to keep up with an offense as explosive as Florida State's. The Seminoles will have no such issues in terms of opt-outs. QB Jordan Travis will start and has announced his return for next season. Here, he'll face a sieve-like Sooners defense that didn't travel particularly well this season, allowing 4.8 yards per rush and 7.2 yards per pass attempt away from home. Take Florida State (8*). |
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12-27-22 | Hornets +4.5 v. Warriors | 105-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We'll fade the banged-up Warriors off their stunning Christmas Day rout of the Grizzlies as a 7.5-point underdog. While they do catch the Hornets in a back-to-back spot, Charlotte is off a double-digit loss in Portland. I like the way the Hornets have been pushing the envelope offensively, hoisting up 92 or more field goal attempts in eight straight games entering Tuesday's contest. It's been a much different story defensively, but I do think they're well-positioned here with the undermanned Warriors having made good on 43 or fewer field goals in seven straight games and Sunday's 91-FG attempt performance marking a four-game high (they had gotten off 81, 74 and 83 FG attempts in their previous three contests). Simply put, it's difficult to win by margin when you're only attempting 80-83 FG attempts per game, especially against a team like the Hornets that will find its offensive opportunities regardless (they've scored over 100 points in 11 straight games). Take Charlotte (8*). |
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12-27-22 | Knicks +5.5 v. Mavs | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up for the Knicks as they look to snap their three-game losing streak in Dallas on Tuesday night. New York has been quite efficient offensively, despite its recent losing ways, knocking down 42 or more field goals in four straight games entering this contest. They lost at home against the 76ers on Christmas Day despite limiting Philadelphia to only 77 field goal attempts while getting off 90 themselves. I expect a reversal of fortunes here noting that the Mavericks are fresh off a nine-point win (and cover) over the Lakers on Christmas Day, getting off a four-game high 84 FG attempts while holding Los Angeles to a six-game low 80 in that affair. Dallas took the first meeting between these two teams this season by 21 points in New York earlier this month. New York had swept the two-game series last season, winning those contests by 23 and 30-point margins. Take New York (8*). |
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12-27-22 | Utah State v. Memphis -7.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 23 m | Show |
Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Utah State at 3:15 pm et on Tuesday. To put it simply, I believe Memphis is a better team than its 6-6 overall record would seem to indicate while Utah State is worse than it's own six-win campaign shows. Utah State opened the season with four losses in its first five games - with the only win coming against a down-trodden (at the time) UConn squad that was just figuring things out. From there the Aggies posted a stunning win over Air Force (with the benefit of playing that game at home) and then got on a bit of a run in early November thanks to a forgiving slate of games that saw them face New Mexico and San Jose State at home and lowly Hawaii on the road. Only one of those three victories came in comfortable fashion (against New Mexico). The Aggies are expected to have RB Calvin Tyler for this game, despite him declaring for the NFL Draft. I'm always hesitant to project playing time for players in similar situations in these lower-end Bowl games. Third-string QB Cooper Legas is expected to start once again. He's proven to be a sack-taking and interception-throwing machine this season in place of Utah State's best two options at the position. Memphis saw three of its six losses during the regular season come by a field goal or less. I liked what I saw out of the Tigers down the stretch as they beat Tulsa handily at home and gave SMU all it could handle on the road in going a perfect 3-0 ATS over their last three contests. Stout against the run (they've allowed just 3.5 yards per rush this season with an insignificant drop-off when playing away from home) they're well-positioned to slow down the Aggies inconsistent offense here. Speaking of consistency, Memphis has scored at least 24 points in all 12 games this season. Utah State was held under the number on five different occasions during the regular season. I like the fact that Memphis head coach Ryan Silverfield was given a vote of confidence despite the middling campaign. He's been told that he will be back for the 2023 season. Take Memphis (10*). |
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12-26-22 | Wolves +4.5 v. Heat | Top | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the T'Wolves here as I'm confident they can at the very least take this game down to the wire in a matchup of two teams riding two-game losing streaks. Minnesota had won three games in a row prior to dropping tough decisions against the Mavericks and Celtics. They still enter Monday's contest having made good on 42 or more field goals in five straight games, while holding three of their last six opponents to 34 or fewer made shots. Miami had also been hot prior to dropping its last two games, winners of four in a row. I don't see the same level of consistency from the Heat offense, however, noting that they've been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in seven of their last 10 contests. Interestingly, the T'Wolves have knocked down four more field goals per game than the Heat this season, despite getting off just one more field goal attempt per contest. At the other end of the floor, Minnesota has allowed one more made field goal but on five additional attempts yielded to opponents. The T'Wolves should come in with confidence having taken all three meetings in this series going back to last season, including a 113-104 win here in Miami last March. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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12-25-22 | Broncos -2.5 v. Rams | 14-51 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:30 pm et on Sunday. We'll take this opportunity to fade the injury-riddled Rams one more time on Sunday as they return home on a short week to host the Broncos. Denver's defense should feast on a depleted Rams offense that is now without WR Ben Skowronek in addition to all of the key contributors they were previously missing, particularly on the offensive line. While I'm by no means high on the Broncos offense, I do believe they can find plenty of open field against Los Angeles here. The Rams seemingly gave their backers some false hope with that come-from-behind home win over the Raiders two-plus weeks ago. I think we saw something closer to the real Rams in their current state in Monday's ugly road loss against the Packers. Returning home where there might be as many Broncos fans as Rams fans in the stands, we'll back the visitors here. Take Denver (8*). |
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12-24-22 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. San Diego State | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Middle Tennessee State plus the points over San Diego State at 8 pm et on Saturday. We'll fade the Aztecs here against an underrated Middle Tennessee State squad that quietly finished the regular season with three straight victories. San Diego State's offense turned around after a coaching shake-up earlier in the season, with quarterback turned safety turned quarterback Jaylen Mayden taking over under center. From my perspective, Mayden is a sack-taking and interception-making machine and I believe the Middle Tennessee State defense can take advantage. Note that the Blue Raiders forced three or more turnovers in five of 12 games this season. Given a couple of extra possessions, I don't expect MTSU to have too much difficulty staying inside this lofty pointspread. Keep in mind, while the Aztecs plodding offense took much of the flack early in the campaign, their defense never showed a great deal of consistency over the course of the season either, allowing 27 or more points on five different occasions. Take Middle Tennessee State (8*). |
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12-23-22 | Houston -7 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 23-16 | Push | 0 | 31 h 53 m | Show |
Bowl Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Louisiana at 3 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this Bowl matchup sets up for Houston, which had a down year by program standards but still managed to win seven games and I believe will get up for this matchup against Louisiana. Note that QB Clayton Tune and WR Nathaniel Dell both announced that they'll play in this game - a clear sign that the team is taking this Bowl appearance seriously. Dell in particular could have easily opted out after declaring for the NFL Draft. It's a much different story for Louisiana, which will be missing its top wide receiver and perhaps best offensive player in WR Michael Jefferson. Remember, the Ragin' Cajuns already lost QB Ben Wooldridge for the season back in November. Backup Chandler Fields has held his own but has taken a ton of sacks given his limited playing time and has also proven to be turnover-prone through the air. Houston didn't have a banner campaign from a defensive standpoint - far from it, in fact - but it is just one game removed from its best defensive performance of the season in a 42-3 rout of East Carolina, on the road no less. Louisiana faced a relatively weak schedule this season and fell hard (by a 49-17 score) in a late step-up game against Florida State. The Ragin' Cajuns enter this contest off a 41-13 win at Texas State but it's worth noting that they went 0-3 SU and ATS after scoring 30 or more points in a game this season, dropping those three decisions by 12, 15 and 32 points. Take Houston (10*). |
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12-22-22 | Jaguars v. Jets -1.5 | Top | 19-3 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Jacksonville at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. While the presence of Zach Wilson under center will keep a lot of bettors off the Jets on Thursday night, I'm not in that group as I expect them to take full advantage of this winnable in-conference matchup in primetime. Last Sunday's game had a dream setup for the Jets as they hosted the Lions who happened to be in a prime letdown spot. New York had every opportunity to win that game but ultimately fell apart late, allowing Detroit to sneak through the back door with a late touchdown. Here, I don't believe Jacksonville will be so fortunate. The Jags of course pulled off a stunning home upset over the Cowboys last Sunday, rallying from down big early to steal a victory in overtime. That win didn't come without a price, however, as the Jags lost key offensive lineman Cam Robinson and now go against a fierce Jets defense that I'm still not sure gets enough praise or credit for all it has accomplished this season. The Jags offense is undoubtedly on the rise but here, on a short week, off that massive performance last Sunday, I can't help but feel a letdown is in order. I mentioned the presence of Jets QB Zach Wilson earlier. He's starting out of necessity only as Mike White remains sidelined. I actually thought Wilson had one of his better games against the Lions last Sunday, even if he did make a couple of boneheaded mistakes. Here, I don't think we'll see the Jets heap too much on Wilson's plate. The Jags don't defend the pass particularly well, nor do they do a great job of containing opposing running backs, both on the ground and in the short passing game. Note that Jacksonville will be without one of its best pass rushers in first overall draft pick Travon Walker for this one. I believe this line will prove too short in favor of the home side. Take New York (10*). |
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12-22-22 | Islanders +1.5 v. Rangers | 3-5 | Loss | -175 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Islanders +1.5 goals over the Rangers at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. To find the last time the Islanders lost a game here in Manhattan, you would have to go back six meetings, all the way to January of 2021. Most of the matchups here at Madison Square Garden since then haven't been particularly close either, with the Isles skating to wins by 2, 4, 1, 3 and 1 goal. Here, we have the opportunity to grab an insurance goal with the visiting Isles at what I would consider a reasonable price given how little there is separating the two sides this season. Note that the Islanders have gone 9-9 on the road this season, outscoring the opposition by 0.2 goals on average. Meanwhile, the Rangers are just 7-10 on home ice, outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals. The Isles have actually outscored opponents by 0.7 goals on average when coming off four losses in their last five games over the last three seasons (13-game sample size), as is the case here. Similarly, they've outscored the opposition by an average margin of 0.6 goals when playing on the road off a one-goal defeat over the last three seasons (15-game sample size), which is also the situation here. Take the Islanders +1.5 goals (8*). |
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12-21-22 | Bucks v. Cavs -1.5 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We'll take this opportunity to fade the Cavs, who check in 8-5 straight-up on the road this season but have been outscored by an average margin of 3.0 points per contest. The Cavs are 15-2 on their home floor, laying waste to the opposition by an average margin of 10.3 points per game. While it's true Milwaukee just dismantled a good New Orleans team in a 128-119 victory in the Big Easy two nights ago, the Bucks are also just two games removed from a 41-point rout at the hands of the Grizzlies in Memphis. The Cavs are riding a four-game winning streak and will have revenge in mind here after dropping the first two meetings in this series this season (both games were played in Milwaukee). Cleveland took both matchups on its home floor last season and neither game was all that competitive with the Cavs winning by 16 and 18 points. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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12-20-22 | Toledo v. Liberty +4 | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Liberty plus the points over Toledo at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab all the points I can get with Liberty on Tuesday as it looks to make it four consecutive Bowl victories while adding to Toledo's postseason woes under head coach Jason Candle. The Flames are turning the page after head coach Hugh Freeze bolted for Auburn. If anything the rumors swirling around Freeze and the Auburn job down the stretch only served to distract a team that had been rolling prior to losing its final three contests. Liberty's most recent victory was an impressive one as it defeated Arkansas 21-19, on the road no less. After dealing with injuries to its top two quarterbacks down the stretch, all indications are that the Flames quarterback room is healthy and ready to roll against the Rockets here. Defensively, Liberty did lose linebacker Ahmad Walker to the transfer portal and that stings to be sure. However, this is a deep group and one that proved it can handle a mobile quarterback similar to the one they'll face tonight in Dequan Finn, limiting Arkansas QB K.J. Jefferson to just 36 rush yards on 16 attempts, good for only 2.3 yards per rush, back in early November. Toledo has dropped the cash in five of its last six games. Prior to its win and cover in the MAC Championship Game it needed to score 38 points or more in its four previous ATS victories this season. Take Liberty (8*). |
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12-20-22 | Jacksonville -6.5 v. Louisiana-Monroe | 66-55 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Jacksonville minus the points over Louisiana-Monroe at 12:30 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with Jacksonville on Tuesday as I'm higher than most on the Dolphins (noting that they've faced the 14th toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom). Today's opponent, Louisiana-Monroe, picked up its fourth win of the season against Lamar last time out. Keep in mind, Lamar is a 4-8 squad as well, one that has yet to post a win over a Division-I opponent. The Warhawks previous three victories this season came against the likes of Dallas Christian, Central Baptist and Champion Christian College. Jacksonville has actually dropped the cash in consecutive games entering this one but one of those contests came against a solid 9-3 N.C.-Wilmington team and the other was a nine-point victory (missing the cover by only a bucket) over Charleston Southern. You'd be hard-pressed to find an area of the game where the Dolphins don't own an edge in this matchup - perhaps shot blocking is the lone exception. I'll lay the points. Take Jacksonville (8*). |
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12-19-22 | Weber State v. Utah State -15.5 | 75-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State minus the points over Weber State at 9 pm et on Monday. We'll lay the points with the Aggies here as they look to continue their red hot start to the season against Weber State. While Weber State has faced the tougher schedule so far this season according to KenPom, the difference is negligible with the Wildcats going against the 116th most difficult slate and Utah State checking in at 126th. With that in mind, Utah State has posted vastly superior numbers at both ends of the floor. The Aggies have made good on nine more field goals per game compared to Weber State, on exactly nine more attempts per contest. They've hit five more three-pointers per game on only four additional attempts from beyond the arc by comparison. It's a similar story at the other end of the floor with Utah State allowing one less made field goal per game, on six additional shot attempts per contest. From the outside, both teams have allowed eight made threes per game but Utah State has done so on two more attempts allowed. With Weber State coming off a stunning 74-45 win as a 5.5-point underdog at Cal-Poly, we'll fade the Wildcats in this letdown spot. Take Utah State (8*). |
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12-19-22 | Rams v. Packers -7 | Top | 12-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Credit the Rams for rallying, led by QB Baker Mayfield, a week ago Thursday, stunning the Raiders with a pair of late touchdowns to steal a victory at home. That win had more to do with Las Vegas taking its foot off the gas than anything else - something I don't expect the Packers to do in front of their home faithful at Lambeau Field on Monday. It's easy to forget Green Bay actually won (and covered) in its most recent game two weeks ago in Chicago. That solid performance against a 'tough out' in the Bears proved that the Pack haven't given up on the season. In fact, I believe their trajectory is pointed up with their offense finally coming around and well-positioned to feast against an Aaron Donald-less Rams defense on Monday. RB Aaron Jones has been dealing with a multitude of injuries but coming off the bye week should be as healthy as he's been in quite some time, and he stands to benefit more than anyone on the Packers offense from the absence of Donald and key run-stopper A'Shawn Robinson. All of the talk last week was about Baker Mayfield somehow absorbing enough of the Rams offensive playbook in just two days (he had signed with the team earlier in the week). Now he's had a little more time to digest the Rams offensive scheme so many expect him to come out firing on Monday. I expect precisely the opposite, noting that Mayfield is still operating behind a poor run and pass blocking offensive line (mostly due to injuries) and with a limited group of weapons around him. Green Bay, despite its overall struggles this season, has remained stout against the pass and should be able to snuff out any thought of Mayfield stringing together a second straight solid performance. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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12-19-22 | Magic v. Hawks -7 | 125-126 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Orlando at 7:40 pm et on Monday. This is a prime letdown spot for the Magic as they come in 'fat and happy' off a two-game sweep of the Celtics in Boston and now play their second game in as many nights, in Atlanta on Monday. The Hawks are desperately trying to find some consistency, winners of just two of their last seven games overall. The good news is, they're coming off one of their best performances of the season as they defeated Charlotte 125-106 on Friday. On the heels of two days off and having scored 116 or more points in four of their last five games, I look for them to pull away for a convincing win over the upstart Magic on Monday. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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12-19-22 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Capitals | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit +1.5 goals over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I like the spot for the Red Wings here as they look to snap their five-game losing streak against the Capitals in Washington on Monday. Detroit fell by a 6-3 score in a game that was closer than the final score indicated against Ottawa on Saturday. Here, we'll note that the Red Wings are 9-3 when coming off consecutive losses by three goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Capitals are just 8-15 when playing at home after scoring four goals or more in their previous game over the same stretch, outscored by 0.2 goals on average in that spot. Washington has allowed 3.7 goals per game while being outscored by 0.8 goals on average when coming off six or seven wins in its last eight games over the last two seasons (13-game sample size), as is the case here. While the Wings are just 6-8 on the road this season, they've only been outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals. We'll grab the insurance goal here. Take Detroit +1.5 goals (10*). |
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12-18-22 | Nets v. Pistons +7.5 | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Brooklyn at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The Nets are rolling right now, already a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS on their current road trip and winners of five consecutive games overall. I think this is a tough game to get up for, however, as they head to Detroit to take on the lowly Pistons on Sunday. Detroit will be revenge-minded in this one after dropping all four matchups against the Nets last season. Note that Brooklyn checks in a woeful 2-11 ATS after covering the spread in three of its last four games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 8.4 points in that situation. The Nets are also just 19-31 ATS after winning four or five of their last six games, as is the case here, over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by just 1.9 points on average in that spot. The Pistons, meanwhile, have gone 39-20 ATS off a home loss over the last three seasons. Take Detroit (8*). |
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12-18-22 | Quinnipiac -3.5 v. St. Peter's | 56-63 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Quinnipiac minus the points over St. Peter's at 2 pm et on Sunday. Neither of these teams have faced difficult schedules with Quinnipiac checking in having gone against the 342nd toughest slate of games according to KenPom and St. Peter's having faced the 357th most difficult. With that being said, Quinnipiac has certainly handled its business a little better, going 9-2 compared to the Peacocks 5-5 mark. The visitors have made good on three more field goals per game compared to the home side, despite getting off one less attempt per contest. From beyond the arc, Quinnipiac has knocked down one more three per game on one less attempt as well. Defensively, these two sides are difficult to compare but Quinnipiac has yielded four more made field goals per game, albeit on 10 additional attempts from the field on average. Take Quinnipiac (8*). |
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12-18-22 | Belmont v. Chattanooga -5 | 83-79 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chattanooga minus the points over Belmont at 2 pm et on Sunday. The difference in strength of schedule between these two teams this season is not insignificant with Chattanooga having faced the 154th toughest according to KenPom and Belmont checking in having gone against the 234th most difficult. With that in mind, Chattanooga has still managed to post better numbers at both ends of the floor. It has made good on one more field goal per game despite averaging one less attempt compared to Belmont. Chattanooga has also allowed two fewer field goal makes to the opposition despite those foes getting off five more attempts per game compared to Belmont. It's been virtually a wash from beyond the arc, although Chattanooga would appear to have a slight edge defensively in that department as well, yielding just one additional made three per game on five more attempts by comparison. Take Chattanooga (8*). |
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12-18-22 | Chiefs -14 v. Texans | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Chiefs almost let one get away after building a big early lead in Denver last Sunday. I don't expect them to let their foot off the gas again this week, however, and they catch the lowly Texans in a prime letdown spot off last week's near-upset win in Dallas. While Kansas City did allow 28 points against a seemingly punchless Broncos squad last Sunday, that poor performance can't really be pinned entirely on the defense as the offense turned the football over three times. You can be sure head coach Andy Reid has been preaching about playing a 'clean' football game in response this Sunday. The Texans were already down-trodden defensively and now they'll have to deal with the absence of both corners, standout rookie Derek Stingley and Steven Nelson. This is a 'name your score' type of game for the Chiefs offense. While Kansas City enters this game off consecutive ATS losses, it has yet to drop the cash in three straight games this season, responding by scoring 41 and 44 points in two previous contests following consecutive ATS defeats here in 2022. The Texans ultimately covered the spread in Dallas last Sunday but haven't delivered back-to-back ATS victories since way back in Weeks 1 and 2 this season. Take Kansas City (8*). |
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12-18-22 | France v. Argentina | 2-2 | Push | 0 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on France pk (90 minutes) over Argentina at 10 am et on Sunday. I'll take a flyer on France in the World Cup Final on Sunday as it looks to secure its second straight title going back to 2018. Argentina has been a great story in this tournament with Messi taking his last run at the trophy for his country. The fact that it has done so after many wrote it off following a tournament-opening loss to Saudi Arabia is impressive to say the least. I've been more impressed by France's complete body of work in this tournament, however. Even against a cagey Morocco squad in the semi-final round, when it was under siege for much of the contest, the French held strong and ultimately prevailed by a 2-0 score. You'd be hard-pressed to find any France starter rating out poorly in this tournament. Even goalkeeper Hugo Lloris has seemingly gotten stronger as the tournament has gone on, saving his best for that semi-final victory over Morocco. I do think Argentina has some weakness on its back line, particularly on the right side. Keeper Emiliano Martinez was strong against Croatia but has had an up-and-down tournament. While there's a good chance this contest ultimately needs extra time to decide, I'm willing to back France at a lower price as it looks to halt Argentina's five-game winning streak and claim the title of 'best in the world' once again. Take France pk (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Grizzlies v. Thunder +9 | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the down-trodden Thunder here as they look to snap their five-game losing streak (not to mention get back at the Grizzlies after dropping both previous meetings this season) on Saturday nigiht in Oklahoma City. The Grizzlies are of course red hot off seven consecutive wins both SU and ATS. It's worth noting however that they've only managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 1.6 points when playing on the road off consecutive double-digit wins over the last three seasons (13-game sample size). Teh Thunder are 27-15 ATS after losing five or six of their last seven games over the last two seasons and 17-6 ATS over the same stretch when coming off four or more losses in a row, outscored by only 3.1 points on average in that latter situation. Note that last season, the Thunder went 2-1 ATS against the Grizzlies despite getting drilled by a ridiculous 73 points in their first matchup of the season. Memphis has won only two of 14 road games by double-digit margins this season and it needed to get off nine more field goal attempts against Sacramento and eight more against Detroit to do so. It's unlikely it will benefit from that sort of shot disparity here as it checks in having allowed 90+ field goal attempts to each of its last four opponents while Oklahoma City has limited three of its last four opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts. Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Ravens v. Browns -3 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Ravens last Sunday in Pittsburgh but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Browns as they host Baltimore on Saturday afternoon. It wasn't pretty, but the Ravens got the job done against the Steelers last week. QB Tyler Huntley turned in a gutsy performance but now has to play on a short week after suffering a head injury in last Sunday's game. Baltimore will certainly look to lean on its defense again here, but I don't like the spot as Browns QB Deshaun Watson has now had two games under his belt - both on the road no less - and can lean heavily on his backfield, which is line line for a sharp bounce-back performance here. Baltimore has been excellent against the run lately, but has faced a rather straight-forward slate of opponents going all the way back to late October when it travelled to Tampa. The Ravens last six games have come against teh Bucs, Saints, Panthers, Jaguars, Broncos and Steelers - none of which boast a ground attack as dynamic as Cleveland's in my opinion. I saw enough good things from Watson last Sunday and enough improvement from the Browns lagging defense (noting that they catch a favorable matchup against a banged-up Ravens offense here) to warrant a shot with the revenge-minded home side here. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Grambling State +18 v. Virginia Tech | 48-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Grambling plus the points over Virginia Tech at 4 pm et on Saturday. I don't think this will be the beatdown most are expecting on Saturday afternoon in Blacksburg. Grambling State has actually faced the slightly tougher schedule compared to ACC opponent Virginia Tech this season (203rd toughest compared to 206th according to KenPom). In spite of that, Grambling's numbers hold up reasonably well here. Virginia Tech has been the better team offensively, but from a defensive standpoint, the Hokies have allowed five more field goal attempts per game with the opposition making good on all five of those in comparison to Grambling. Grambling has given up the same number of made three-pointers per contest as Virginia Tech, but on three additional attempts from beyond the arc per game. While Grambling has knocked down three fewer threes itself per game, that's on eight fewer attempts compared to the Hokies. Take Grambling (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Miami-OH v. Bellarmine -6.5 | 71-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Bellarmine minus the points over Miami-Ohio at 4 pm et on Saturday. Bellarmine has quietly faced the fourth toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. While Miami-Ohio hasn't exactly faced a cupcake-laden sked, it ranks 178th in the country in that department. In spite of that, Bellarmine has arguably posted the better numbers at both ends of the floor. It has made good on just one less field goal per game compared to Miami-Ohio, despite getting off an average of six fewer attempts per contest. It has also knocked down an identical nine three-pointers per game despite hoisting up two fewer attempts from beyond the arc. Defensively, Miami-Ohio yields seven more made field goals per contest (on nine additional attempts). Bellarmine allows one less made three-pointer per game despite the opposition getting off three additional attempts from outside. You get the idea. Take Bellarmine (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Fresno State v. Washington State +4.5 | 29-6 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Fresno State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I like the set up for Washington State here as it comes off an embarrassing 51-33 loss against rival Washington in the Apple Cup and faces a Fresno State squad that is perhaps primed for a letdown off an upset win over Boise State in the Mountain West Conference Championship. Yes, the Cougars have been ravaged by opt-outs and transfers and also their offensive and defensive coordinators ahead of this game. I believe we're seeing a definite overreaction that all of that news, however, with Washington State shifting from a 2.5-point favorite at open to a 4.5-point underdog currently. Fresno State was able to pull away from the awful teams it faced over the course of the regular season (I'm talking about the likes of Cal Poly, New Mexico, Hawaii, Nevada and Wyoming). Rarely did it step up in class and win in convincing fashion, however, with the exception being that 28-16 victory over Boise State in the MWC Championship Game. Everyone is down on Washington State after that blowout loss to Washington after it had previously reeled off four consecutive ATS wins. While there's plenty of talk about the Cougars personnel losses entering this game, they will get back one of their best defenders in CB Armani Marsh, a true difference-maker in the secondary and a huge plus against a dynamic Fresno State passing attack led by QB Jake Haener. Take Washington State (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Sam Houston State -3.5 v. Texas State | 69-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sam Houston State minus the points over Texas State at 3 pm et on Saturday. Sam Houston State has quietly faced the 31st toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom while Texas State checks in having faced the 253rd most difficult schedule. In spite of that, SHSU has posted better numbers at both ends of the floor. SHSU has made good on six more field goals per game on just nine additional attempts per contest compared to Texas State. Defensively, the visitors have allowed five fewer made field goals per game on only two fewer attempts per contest. It's a similar story from beyond the arc with SHSU knocking down three more three-pointers per game on seven additional attempts and holding the opposition to just one more made three per contest on six additional attempts from outside. Take Sam Houston State (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Tenn-Martin +6 v. Bowling Green | 75-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee-Martin plus the points over Bowling Green at 2 pm et on Saturday. There's little separating these two teams in terms of strength of schedule to this point with Tennessee-Martin checking in having faced the 257th toughest schedule according to KenPom and Bowling Green having gone against the 283rd most difficult slate of games. With the former coming in on an extended ATS slide I believe the pendulum has swung far enough to back it in this spot. Note that Tennessee-Martin knocks down four more field goals per game compared to Bowling Green this season, on only one additional attempt on average. It also makes good on two more three-pointers per contest one one more three-point attempt per game compared to BGSU. It's a similar story defensively, with both sides allowing 27 made field goals per game but Tennessee-Martin doing so on four more attempts per contest allowed. I expect this one to go down to the wire and will grab all the points I can get with the visitors. Take Tennessee-Martin (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Providence v. Seton Hall -2.5 | 71-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seton Hall minus the points over Providence at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the short number with Seton Hall here as it looks to best Providence in a matchup of two teams riding identical three-game winning streaks. Only one game separates these two teams this season with Providence checking in with the slightly better overall record. All records aren't created equal, however, at least not in college basketball. Providence has faced the 349th toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom while Seton Hall checks in having gone against the 61st most difficult schedule. Providence does own the better offensive numbers this season but Seton Hall can hold its own, and then some, defensively having allowed four fewer made field goals per game (on four fewer attempts per contest on average) compared to the Friars. Opponents are knocking down two fewer three-pointers per contest against Seton Hall despite hoisting up an identical 19 three-point attempts per game compared to Providence. I mentioned that the Friars have been superior offensively but not necessarily from beyond the arc, where both teams check in having made good on 6-of-19 threes per game. Take Seton Hall (8*). |
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12-16-22 | Austin Peay v. Murray State -6.5 | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Murray State minus the points over Austin Peay at 8 pm et on Friday. It hasn't been a banner start to the season for Murray State and that was clear in its most recent game as it struggled to get past Chicago State as a double-digit favorite, ultimately winning that game by a single point. I do like the way the matchup favors the Racers on Friday, however, as they host Austin Peay. While the latter has faced the 205th toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom, Murray State has faced the 153rd most difficult. That's notable as the Racers have advantages at both ends of the floor in spite of it. Murray State has gotten off one less field goal attempt per game this season but has actually made good on one additional shot per contest compared to Austin Peay. At the defensive end of the floor it's really no contest as Murray State has allowed one more made field goal per game in comparison with Austin Peay, but on 10 more attempts per contest. In a similar vein, Murray State's opponents have knocked down one more three-point attempt per game compared to Austin Peay, but on seven additional attempts on average. We'll confidently lay the points with a Racers squad that took both meetings last season by double-digit margins. Take Murray State (8*). |
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12-15-22 | Cal-Irvine +2 v. Santa Clara | 74-86 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cal-Irvine plus the points over Santa Clara at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Anteaters of Cal-Irvine have faced the 58th toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom (Santa Clara checks in at 157th) yet have all but matched the Broncos numbers to date. In fact, UC-Irvine averages four more made field goals per game on only two additional attempts compared to Santa Clara. It also knocks down an identical eight three-pointers per contest despite getting off six fewer attempts per game from beyond the arc. It's a similar story at the defensive end of the floor. Santa Clara gives up seven more field goal attempts per game compared to UC-Irvine, with opponents making good on five of those extra seven shots. On four more three-point attempts yielded per game, the Broncos allow a per game average of three additional makes from beyond the arc. Add in the fact that UC-Irvine has seen its opponents knock down a likely unsustainable 71% of their free throw attempts, and I like the Anteaters chances of staging a minor upset here. Take Cal-Irvine (8*). |
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12-15-22 | Pelicans -1 v. Jazz | 129-132 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. Utah took the front half of this two-game set in Salt Lake City two nights ago but I look for the Pelicans to answer back on Thursday. Utah has actually taken both meetings in this series so far this season. However, it's worth noting that neither team has managed to pull off a three-game winning streak in the series over the last 11 meetings going back to 2020. New Orleans checks in averaging the same number of made field goals per game as Utah this season, but on one fewer attempt per contest. It knocks down four fewer three-pointers per game but that's on nine fewer attempts on average. At the other end of the floor, the Pelicans give up two fewer made field goals per contest, on two fewer attempts. Utah is giving up three fewer made threes per game - but again, that's on seven fewer attempts from beyond the arc. I'll bite with the Pelicans here. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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12-15-22 | 49ers -3 v. Seahawks | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. I think a lot of bettors are talking themselves into backing the home divisional underdog in Seattle on Thursday but I feel it's the wrong move. I don't believe 49ers QB Brock Purdy is going to be a 'one-and-done' story. Yes, he is probably getting too much hype off last Sunday's monster first half against the Buccaneers. That doesn't mean that he can't enjoy continued success, however. The fact is, the Niners gameplan should be focused around getting RB Christian McCaffrey the ball here anyway as the Seahawks have been dismal against the run and could be without one of their best run-stoppers in DT Al Woods after he suffered an achilles injury in last Sunday's loss to the Panthers. The Niners have injury issues of their own, of course, most notably to do-it-all WR Deebo Samuel. This is a deep offense, however, and I'm confident we'll see guys like George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and even Jauan Jennings step up in Samuel's absence. While San Francisco has yielded plenty of yardage to opposing wide receivers this season, that's really only because it has been playing from ahead so much and opponents have bailed on their ground attacks after gaining little headway. How about this - the Niners last six opponents have run for 56, 51, 67, 63, 33 and 69 yards. While I am high on Seahawks rookie RB Kenneth Walker, who is expected to return from injury here, I'm not convinced he'll do anything other than run into the Niners line over and over again on Thursday. Seattle allowed a whopping 30 points to the lowly Panthers last week. That's notable when you consider the Niners haven't allowed 30 points over their last three-and-a-half games. In fact, the Seahawks have yielded 93 points over their last three contests while San Francisco hasn't given up that many points over its last six games combined. I did consider playing the Niners on the moneyline here given the fact that we have seen a number of games decided by a field goal or less between these division rivals over the years. However, noting that the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 10-0 ATS in games where the line closed at a field goal or less involving these teams this season, I'll confidently lay the points with the visitors here. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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12-14-22 | Bowling Green v. Norfolk State -4.5 | 75-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Norfolk State minus the points over Bowling Green at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for Norfolk State as it looks to pick up a second victory over Bowling Green in as many years following last year's 90-84 road triumph. According to KenPom, Norfolk State has faced the 19th toughest schedule in the nation this season. Bowling Green on the other hand checks in having gone against the 297th toughest. In spite of that, the Falcons have made good on two fewer field goals per game compared to Norfolk State, on six more attempts. It's a similar story at the defensive end of the floor where Bowling Green has allowed three more made field goals on only one additional attempt compared to Norfolk State. The Falcons have recorded two of their three highest-scoring games of the season over their last two contests and perhaps that is holding plenty of water with this line. I simply feel that Norfolk State is the superior team at both ends of the floor and will once again frustrate Bowling Green after keeping the Falcons on the perimeter for much of last year's contest between the two teams (BGSU hoisted up 40 three-point attempts, making only 12 in that game). Take Norfolk State (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Stetson +15 v. College of Charleston | 60-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Stetson plus the points over Charleston at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I realize that this is a 'revenge game' for Charleston after it went on the road and lost by eight points as a 5.5-point favorite against Stetson in last year's meeting between the two teams. I also realize that Charleston is off to a terrific 10-1 start to the season while Stetson checks in at 5-3. Still, I'll happily grab the generous helping of points with the underdog side here as I like the way it matches up. Note that Stetson has quietly faced the 72nd toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. By contrast, Charleston checks in having gone against the 107th most difficult schedule. With that said, Stetson has made good on one more field goal per game (one one less attempt) compared to Charleston while also allowing two fewer made field goals on just one less attempt. Stetson has also knocked down 10 three-pointers per game - an identical average to that of Charleston, however Stetson has done it on three fewer attempts per contest. I just don't believe there's as much separating these two squads as is seemingly being indicated by the lofty pointspread. Take Stetson (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Queens NC +3.5 v. East Tennessee State | 78-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Queens plus the points over East Tennessee State at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Noting that East Tennessee State hasn't really faced anyone of substance this season (345th toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom) and still limps into this contest having lost five of its last seven games SU and all six from an ATS perspective in lined contests over that stretch, I'm not sure it has any business laying points here. Queens has done nothing but impress, going 8-2 SU overall and 6-1 ATS in lined games this season. It checks in having knocked down two more field goals per game compared to East Tennessee State, while getting off only one additional attempt per contest. It also allows only two more made field goals per game despite yielding nine more attempts than ETSU. It goes on from there - Queens makes good on nine three-pointers per game compared to six for ETSU, with the former only attempting four additional shots from beyond the arc. You get the idea. We'll grab the points here. Take Queens-Charlotte (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Coastal Carolina +4.5 v. South Dakota | 87-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over South Dakota at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We'll take a flyer on Coastal Carolina here in this rematch of a meeting on November 26th - the Chanticleers won that game by seven points as a four-point home favorite. I've yet to see anything indicating that South Dakota is worthy of the 'favorite' tag here. Yes, South Dakota has faced the more difficult schedule this season but it has also gone a woeful 2-7 ATS in lined contests. Note that Coastal Carolina is getting off five more field goal attempts per game, and has made good on all five, averaging 29 made field goals per contest compared to South Dakota's 24. CCU has also held opponents to just 24 made field goals per game, that's three fewer than South Dakota has given up, despite CCU yielding three more FG attempts per contest. South Dakota does have a slight edge in terms of three-point shooting, but CCU has defended the perimeter reasonably well, allowing just eight makes on 25 attempts per game (South Dakota allows the same number of made threes on two fewer attempts). Take Coastal Carolina (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Sharks | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is in Arizona +1.5 goals over San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Coyotes and as an added bonus, we're able to grab an insurance goal to increase our chances of winning considerably. The Coyotes are coming off consecutive wins, including a 5-4 victory over the Flyers last time out and that's notable as they've gone 5-2 when playing on the road after scoring five goals or more in their previous contest over the last two seasons, averaging an impressive 5.3 goals and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Sharks are a woeful 8-23 when following up a division win over the last three seasons, outscored by 1.2 goals on average in that situation. Worse still, San Jose is 0-7 when playing at home after scoring three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.3 goals in that situation. The 'Yotes have played the Sharks tough going back to the start of last season, taking two of three games when factoring in the +1.5 puck-line while skating to an even 14-14 scoreline. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Celtics -3.5 v. Lakers | 122-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Celtics here after they suffered their second straight loss (only their second losing streak of the season) on this same floor against the Clippers last night. Note that Boston scored only 93 points in that defeat, putting it in an excellent situation here given it has gone 11-2 ATS after scoring 95 points or less in its previous contest over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points on average in that spot. The Celtics are also 13-4 ATS after losing consecutive games ATS over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 12.6 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Lakers are off a win and cover in Detroit at the tail-end of a long road trip and are just 16-29 ATS off an ATS victory over the last two seasons, outscored by 3.9 points on average along the way. Worse still, they're 31-47 ATS as an underdog over that stretch, outscored by an average margin of 7.4 points in those contests. Take Boston (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Memphis +7 v. Alabama | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Alabama at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as is being indicated by the pointspread. Alabama has faced the 20th toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom but Memphis isn't far behind at 40th. The Tigers have been ultra-efficient offensively, knocking down one more field goal per game compared to Alabama despite attempting four fewer shots per contest. While 'Bama has made good on four more three-pointers per game, that's only because it has gotten off 13 more attempts compared to Memphis. Defensively, I have the two teams as a virtual wash with the Crimson Tide in slightly poorer form having allowed their last four opponents to make good on 26, 38, 26 and 25 field goals. We can anticipate a high-scoring environment here with neither side looking to slow the pace of the opposition in recent games. Given that, I expect the Tigers offensive prowess to keep them in the game from start to finish as they look to upset the revenge-minded Crimson Tide (Memphis took last year's matchup 92-78). Take Memphis (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Suns -5.5 v. Rockets | Top | 97-111 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is undoubtedly a game the Suns have had circled since dropping an embarrassing 122-121 decision at home against the Rockets on December 2nd. That loss seemed to send Phoenix into a bit of a tailspin as it enters Tuesday's contest on a four-game losing streak. I expect the Suns to bounce back in a big way here, even without Devin Booker in the lineup. Note that Phoenix is 14-4 ATS when playing on the road after losing four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 9.0 points on average in that spot. The Suns are an identical 14-4 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponents as a favorite of seven points or more over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 13.4 points on average in that situation. Perhaps better still, they're 9-1 ATS when following up a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 19.9 points on average along the way. As for the Rockets, they're 9-21 as a home underdog of six points or less over the last three seasons, outscored by 7.9 points on average in that spot and 8-20 ATS after giving up 105 points or less in their last game over the same stretch, outscored by an average margin of 9.4 points. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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12-13-22 | Green Bay v. St. Thomas -12 | 61-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Thomas minus the points over Green Bay at 8 pm et on Tuesday. I think we have a blowout on our hands in this one as St. Thomas catches Green Bay coming off an outright upset as a 6.5-point underdog against UMKC last time out. While Green Bay has struggled to eclipse 23 made field goals on most nights (that's its high-water mark in that department this season), St. Thomas has been ultra-efficient at the offensive end of the floor. St. Thomas averages seven more made field goals per game compared to Green Bay on just six more attempts. It has also been considerably sharper defensively, yielding two fewer made field goals despite the opposition getting off three additional attempts per contest compared to Green Bay. There's no real discrepancy here in terms of strength of schedule as KenPom rates Green Bay as having faced the 229th toughest schedule in the country with St. Thomas checking in at 223rd. Take St. Thomas (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Stonehill +13 v. Boston College | 56-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Stonehill plus the points over Boston College at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We'll take a flyer on Stonehill on Tuesday as it looks to make life miserable for the already-cantankerous Boston College Eagles, a team that has lost four consecutive games. Despite the two teams facing a similar strength of schedule to this point this season (Boston College ranks 165th and Stonehill checks in 178th according to KenPom), we've seen them post similar numbers at both ends of the floor. Stonehill has actually knocked down one more field goal per game on two fewer attempts, while allowing three additional made fields goals per contest, but on five extra attempts. Stonehill is getting off four more three-point attempts per game compared to Boston College, and impressively knocking down all four of those extra shot attempts from beyond the arc. While B.C. will obviously be desperate to end its slide, Stonehill should come to play as well off a double-digit loss as a four-point underdog against Rider last time out. I'll grab all the points I can get with a team that has proven it can go on the road and win outright in an underdog role, having done so at Army and at Binghamton (I realize beating an ACC team on the road is a different story but here we're catching a generous helping of points). Take Stonehill (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Longwood -8 v. St Francis NY | 63-57 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Longwood minus the points over St. Francis-NY at 2 pm et on Tuesday. I'll bite with Longwood as a road favorite here, noting that it has faced the tougher schedule (marginally according to KenPom) and rates out considerably stronger at both ends of the floor despite the near indentical records the two teams have posted this season. Longwood handled St. Francis-NY by nine points the last time these two teams met back in 2019. The only reason St. Francis was remotely competitive in that game was because it shot just shy of 51% from the field. Here, we'll note that Longwood is averaging six more made field goals per game on only two additional attempts compared to St. Francis this season. At the other end of the floor, Longwood is allowing one less made field goal despite yielding one additional shot attempt per contest. Longwood has also made the most of its opportunities from three-point range, getting off two more shots per game from beyond the arc compared to St. Francis, making good on both of those attempts. Look for Longwood to pull away for the convincing win this afternoon. Take Longwood (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Wolves +4.5 v. Blazers | 112-133 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday. I like the T'Wolves to get some quick revenge against the Blazers on Monday after dropping Saturday's matchup on this floor by a 124-118 score. There's no reason for Minnesota to hang its head as it shot exceptionally well from the field in that contest but quite simply lost the free throw shooting competition (Portland knocked down 25 of 28 FT attempts). The T'Wolves have still held three of their last five opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, which is more than we can say for the Blazers, who have been lit up for 40+ made field goals in 13 of their last 14 contests. Saturday's loss could be chalked up as an anomaly for the T'Wolves as they enter Monday's game an impressive 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games against Northwest Division foes, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 4.3 points along the way. Here, we'll note that Minnesota is 3-1 ATS the previous four times it has sought revenge for an in-season loss against an opponent this season while Portland is 0-3 ATS after shooting 47% or better from the field in four consecutive games, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Creighton -3.5 v. Arizona State | 71-73 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Creighton minus the points over Arizona State at 9 pm et on Monday. Creighton already had plenty of reason to circle this game on its schedule after Arizona State stunned the Blue Jays 58-57 as a seven-point underdog in last year's matchup between the two teams. Here, we find the Blue Jays riding an unexpected four-game losing streak while the Sun Devils have exceeded expectations by winning nine of their first 10 games. It all leads to a convincing Creighton victory in my opinion. The Sun Devils aren't likely to contain the Blue Jays offense the way they did in last year's matchup, limiting Creighton to just 54 field goal attempts in that previous meeting. Creighton is shooting an average of 29-for-62 this season and should provide Arizona State with a 'shock to its system' after the Sun Devils were favored by five points or more in four of their last five games. Here, we'll note that the Blue Jays are an impressive 47-28 ATS in their last 75 games following consecutive losses, outscoring opponents by 5.7 points on average in that situation. Take Creighton (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Heat -2.5 v. Pacers | 87-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Heat now dropped the cash in four straight games entering Monday's clash with the similarly-slumping Pacers in Indiana. Notably, Miami has lost three of its last four games and it has gone a perfect 10-0 ATS when in that situation on the road over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.3 points. While Miami has held five of its last six opponents to 87 field goal attempts or fewer, Indiana has had no such luck, or interest, in controlling the pace of its opponents, yielding 93+ FG attempts in three of its last four and six of its last nine contests overall. Off an embarrassing home loss as a double-digit favorite against the Spurs on Saturday, we'll call for the revenge-minded Heat (they lost by two points here in Indiana back in early November) to bounce back in a big way here. Take Miami (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Yale -5.5 v. Fairfield | 77-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Yale minus the points over Fairfield at 7 pm et on Monday. On the heels of its first losing streak this season, Yale will undoubtedly be locked in on its MAAC opponent tonight. There's no shame in the Bulldogs last two losses as they came against Butler and Kentucky, both on the road, and they managed to split those contests from an ATS perspective. Here, they'll face Fairfield riding its first winning streak of the season (two games). Despite facing the tougher schedule (according to KenPom), Yale has made good on nine more field goals (on eight more attempts) per game compared to Fairfield while also limiting opponents to three fewer made field goals (on just one more attempt) per contest this season. The Bulldogs are yielding the same number of made three-pointers (six) per game on two additional attempts. Fairfield has managed to stay competitive largely due to its ability to get to the free throw line (21 attempts per game), however Yale has limited its opponents to just 15 trips to the charity stripe per contest. Off consecutive losses, I think we see a disciplined performance from the Bulldogs here as they stretch out the margin for a comfortable victory. Take Yale (8*). |
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12-11-22 | Eagles -6.5 v. Giants | 48-22 | Win | 100 | 72 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Giants plus the points last week against the Commanders but it certainly wasn't easy as they coughed up a late 20-13 lead and ultimately settled for a 20-20 tie. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade New York as it stays home to host the juggernaut Philadelphia Eagles. This is another smash spot for Eagles QB Jalen Hurts as he continues his march to an MVP trophy. The difference this week compared to last Sunday against Tennessee is that Philadelphia should also be able to run the football at will on a G-Men defense that has acted as little more than a swinging-gate against opposing ground games this season. With Philadelphia having shored up its own run defense in recent weeks, it should have little trouble keeping a regressing Giants offense at bay on Sunday afternoon. New York had a few good moments in last week's tie against Washington, but ultimately struggled to put the game away and could do virtually nothing with its overtime drives. Whether RB Saquon Barkley is wearing down or if it's just poor run-blocking on the part of the Giants o-line, there's no question he has regressed considerably. Still technically not out of the woods atop the NFC East, look for the Eagles to lay the hammer down here. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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12-11-22 | Ravens +2.5 v. Steelers | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 71 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore plus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm not buying the line move here as I'm not convinced it's a monumental downgrade from Lamar Jackson to Tyler Huntley at quarterback for the Ravens. Jackson has shown flashes of brilliance this season but as a whole, I don't feel he has been as unstoppable or dominant as we've come to expect. He's struggled to connect with his receivers and tight ends on deep passes in particular and while his presence certainly forces the hand of opposing defensive coordinators, I do think Huntley in the starting role bring a different set of challenges as well. Pittsburgh is riding high off consecutive wins but those came against the Colts and Falcons, two opponents that quite simply didn't match up well. It's a different story with the Ravens, and I think we're getting a bargain-basement price to back them in an underdog role here, thanks in large part to the fact they've dropped the cash in three consecutive games heading in. It's hard not to forget that the Ravens went into Pittsburgh without Jackson (RGIII started in his place) in December of 2020, were listed as an 11-point underdog and ultimately gave Pittsburgh all it could handle in a 19-14 loss. Here, I expect John Harbaugh to employ a similar gameplan with the Ravens leaning on their ground attack and defense to effectively shorten proceedings and give themselves a chance. Take Baltimore (8*). |
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12-10-22 | Navy v. Army +2.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 49 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Army plus the points over Navy at 3 pm et on Saturday. Even with a sixth win of the season on Saturday, Army still won't be going Bowling this season which is certainly disappointing. I actually don't mind the situation as it is, however, as there's no added pressure in a game where there's already more than enough in this annual stand-alone affair. Both teams come in hot from an ATS perspective with Navy having reeled off three consecutive ATS victories and Army riding a perfect 5-0 ATS run. What I really like about Army is the way it was able to effectively stamp out opposing passing games over the course of the season. I know what you're thinking, that means little against Navy's triple-option based attack (although the Midshipmen did pass more than usual this season, averaging 11 pass attempts per game). I do think it speaks to the strength in the Army secondary, with those defenders in the second and third level hard-hitters capable of moving up in the box and snuffing out big plays from the Midshipmen's ground game. Offensively, Army surges into this contest having rumbled for 275, 323 and 329 rushing yards over its last three games. The level of opposition it faced over that stretch undoubtedly had something to do with it but it's not as if Navy is a defensive powerhouse. Yes, the Midshipmen allowed just 3.1 yards per rush this season but that's largely due to the fact that teams generally only ran on them in obvious running situations. Instead, we saw Navy's opposition attack it through the air relentlessly, gaining a whopping 8.9 yards per pass attempt. Army can sling it a little bit, as it showed in a wild 41-38 loss to UTSA earlier in the season when it completed 13-of-18 passes for over 300 yards. Finally, we'll note that Navy took last year's meeting but hasn't won consecutive matchups with Army since 2014 and 2015. That was the tail-end of a long winning streak in the series that went all the way back to 2001. The previous time Navy won a game over Army (2019), it followed it up with a 15-0 loss the next year (2020). Take Army (8*). |
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12-09-22 | Knicks v. Hornets +4.5 | 121-102 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over New York at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We missed fading the Knicks two nights ago as they caught a break with Dejounte Murray going down with an injury early for the Hawks in an eventual blowout win. Here, I don't think New York will be so fortunate as it looks for its third consecutive victory. Charlotte rides a three-game losing streak but it isn't playing all that poorly. The Hornets have actually delivered the cash in consecutive games and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests. Note also that they'll be seeking revenge for an earlier 134-131 loss in New York back in late October. New York is just 6-6 on the road this season where it has been outscored by an average margin of 1.6 points and I simply don't believe it has any business laying points here. Take Charlotte (8*). |
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12-09-22 | Brazil v. Croatia +1.5 | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Croatia +1.5 goals over Brazil at 10 am et on Friday. I don't think we see Croatia - which was a finalist in the 2018 World Cup - go away quietly the way South Korea did at the hands of mighty Brazil in the knockout stage. Keep in mind, the Checkered Ones enter this match riding a 10-game undefeated streak and know how to keep the opposition in check with four of their last five contests staying 'under' 2.5 total goals. Croatia has proven to be incredible difficult to break down in this tournament with the foursome of Juranovic, Lovren, Gvardiol and Sosa rating out near the top in terms of defensive back lines. Keeper Dominik Livakovic is also coming off his best performance of the tournament in the knockout stage thriller against Japan. Brazil turned in its most dominant performance of the tournament in a rout of South Korea but now has nowhere to go but down in my opinion. I still feel it can be had in the back and with Croatia's Ivan Perisic coming off a 'turn back the clock' performance, he's the man to watch in this contest. Take Croatia +1.5 goals (8*). |
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12-08-22 | Nuggets -1 v. Blazers | 121-120 | Push | 0 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Nuggets as they look to snap a three-game skid and also avenge an earlier blowout loss to the Blazers this season. Denver has clamped down on its last two opponents, yielding just 81 and 72 field goal attempts but came away with nothing to show for it. The Nuggets most recent loss was particularly discouraging as they fell by a single point at home against Dallas in what should have been a terrific bounce-back spot. A lot of bettors got burned with Denver in that game and won't have much interest in backing it again here. Portland has knocked down 41 or 42 field goals in four straight games but has also gotten off 85 or more field goal attempts in each of those contests - a number I'm not convinced it will reach here. On the flip side, we've seen the Blazers relax a bit defensively of late, allowing four of its last six opponents to hoist up 89 or more FG attempts. In that type of environment, I believe the potential is there for the Nuggets to go off offensively in this one. Take Denver (8*). |
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12-08-22 | St. Thomas +7.5 v. Montana State | 65-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Thomas plus the points over Montana State at 9 pm et on Thursday. While Montana State has faced the considerably tougher schedule this season, St. Thomas has had a couple of true step-up games (against Creighton and Utah) as well and I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as the pointspread indicates. St. Thomas averages three more made field goals per contest on the same number as attempts per game as Montana State this season. It has made good on four more three-pointers per game on just four additional attempts. At the other end of the floor, St. Thomas has allowed the same number of made field goals on two additional attempts per game compared to Montana State. Both teams have seen their opponents make good on better than 72% of their free throw attempts, certainly not a sustainable trend. I realize this is fairly rudimentary handicapping but I think it works in this spot and with Montana State coming off consecutive ATS wins, matching its longest such streak of the season, I like the fade of the home side here. Take St. Thomas (8*). |
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12-08-22 | Raiders -6 v. Rams | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We actually backed the injury-riddled Rams in Kansas City two weeks ago - a game in which they did sniff out an ATS and ultimately delivered a 'push' for most bettors. They followed that up with a loss but cover against the Seahawks last Sunday in a game that featured a misleading final score in my opinion. Were it not for Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker going down to injury early in that contest, I do think Seattle would have run up the score. Note that it scored touchdowns on two of its first three offensive drives before Walker was forced to exit the game and the Seahawks balance disappeared. This Rams defense is a mess without DTs Aaron Donald and A'Shawn Robinson, unable to generate much push or clog up the middle. The Raiders have precisely the type of offense that can expose the L.A. defense with RB Josh Jacobs running as well as anyone in the league, even if he is a little nicked-up (few players are 100% healthy at this stage of the season). With corner Jalen Ramsey having a miserable time on an island on this Rams defense, Raiders WR Davante Adams figures to smash in this spot. In last Sunday's game, Seahawks WRs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf went off, hauling in a combined 17 catches for 255 yards and two scores. The sky is the limit for Adams here. On the flip side, the Raiders defense is rounding into form at the right time with the duo of Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby terrorizing opposing offensive lines. Of course, the Rams boast one of the league's worst o-lines with QB John Wolford absorbing four sacks last week and now dealing with a neck injury, potentially leaving this game in the hands of newly-signed QB Baker Mayfield, who is with his third different team since last season and has had about two days to learn the playbook. While I don't love backing a team that has reeled off three consecutive ATS wins at this stage of the season, I feel we can confidently back the Raiders against a Rams squad that is already looking ahead to next year. Take Las Vegas (10*). |
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12-07-22 | Hawks +2 v. Knicks | Top | 89-113 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I like the setup for this play on Wednesday as the Hawks come off a disappointing home loss as a six-point favorite against the Thunder last time out while the Knicks check in off an outright underdog win over the Cavs on their home floor on Sunday. That was an easy game for New York to get up for after it got throttled at home just over 24 hours earlier against the Mavericks. I suspect it will be a little tougher for the Knicks here, noting that they're still just 3-6 SU and ATS over their last nine contests. Here, we'll note also that the Knicks are 16-22 ATS when coming off an outright underdog win over the last three seasons while the Hawks are 20-17 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the same stretch. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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12-07-22 | Cornell v. Miami-FL -15.5 | 105-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Wednesday CBB Free play. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Cornell at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I'm always on the lookout for 'shock to the system' type of situations and that's precisely what we have here as Cornell puts its seven-game winning streak on the line against Miami. The Big Red check in 7-1 on the season but they've faced a cupcake schedule (333rd in the nation in strength of schedule according to KenPom). Cornell has been shooting the lights out with little need to slow things down and make life difficult for opposing offenses. That should come back to bite it here as Miami clamps down defensively while also making the most of its opportunities at the offensive end of the floor. Take Miami. |
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12-06-22 | Yale +6.5 v. Butler | 61-71 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Yale plus the points over Butler at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. I simply feel these two teams are mirror images of one another with the potential for the case to be made for Yale to be the slightly superior team at both ends of the floor, yet here we are catching more than a handful of points with the visiting Bulldogs. Yale does come off a win but non-cover against Stony Brook last time out but there's not much to complain about as it had previously a perfect six-for-six covering in line games this season. Butler comes off consecutive games shooting better than 50% from the field but should be held in check by a Yale defense that has allowed an average of just 19 made field goals on 55 attempts this season. By contrast, Butler has yielded seven more made field goals on only four additional attempts per game this season. While I realize Butler has faced the tougher schedule, I'm not convinced the lofty pointspread is warranted here. Additionally, Butler has made good on just shy of 74% of its free throw attempts this season, not a sustainable percentage in my opinion, while also sending its opponents to the line only 11 times per contest, also unsustainable. Take Yale (8*). |
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12-06-22 | Switzerland +0.5 v. Portugal | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Switzerland +0.5 goals over Portugal at 2 pm et on Tuesday. I'll take a flyer on Switzerland grabbing a half-goal against Portugal here as I believe there's a considerably better than 50/50 chance that this one is all-level (or the Swiss leading) after 90 minutes. Portugal has impressed in the tournament so far but it's not as if it has been blowing the doors off the opposition. Switzerland has been down this road before, giving tougher opponents all they can handle in previous tournament. In other words, I don't believe the stage is too big for the Swiss here. They were in a pressure-packed situation against Serbia last Friday and came through with flying colours. I believe both sides will ultimately prove difficult to break down in this one, with a 1-1 result after 90 minutes a quite likely outcome. The status of Swiss keeper Yann Sommer will obviously be important to keep an eye on leading up to the match. If he's able to man the goal, I would consider sprinkling a little on the Swiss three-way moneyline as well here. Take Switzerland +0.5 goals (8*). |
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12-06-22 | Spain v. Morocco +1 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
Knockout Stage Game of the Year. My selection is on Morocco +1 goal over Spain at 10 am et on Tuesday. I think a lot of casual bettors saw all they needed from Spain in its boot-stomping 7-0 rout of Costa Rica two weeks ago. Since then, the Spaniards have managed a draw against Germany and a defeat at the hands of Japan to ultimately finish second in their group, leading to a date with upstart Morocco in the knockout stage on Tuesday. This is likely the matchup that Spain actually wanted - that was evident in its late game activity when trailing against Japan last time out. I do think this could be a 'be careful what you wish for' situation, however, as Morocco can give it trouble in my opinion. Here, we'll note that Morocco in now undefeated in its last nine matches across all competitions. It has successfully put the opposition on its back foot more often than not, striking first in six of its last eight contests. So again, its short-term success in this tournament hasn't been a fluke by any means. Of course, facing Spain is no easy task as it has scored first in five consecutive matches. With that being said, this is a side that has only managed to come away victorious in five of its last 10 contests overall with three of those victories coming by more than a single goal. I believe there's a good chance we see these two sides all square through 90 minutes, similar to what we saw from Japan and Croatia yesterday. But rather than play the 'draw' we'll give due respect to Morocco and catch a little insurance in the process. Take Morocco +1 goal (8*). |
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12-05-22 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Flames | 2-3 | Win | 110 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 goals over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Monday. I'm still not buying what the Flames are selling, even after a lopsided win over the Capitals on Saturday. Remember, we cashed a ticket fading Calgary with another puck-line underdog in the Canadiens (Montreal won that game 2-1) last week. I believe the Flames are ripe for the picking again here as they host a Coyotes team desperate for a win off four consecutive losses, including a tough 3-2 overtime defeat in Vancouver on Saturday. Here, we'll note that Calgary is just 5-9 the last 14 times it has played at home after scoring five or more goals in its previous game, outscored by 0.1 goals on average in that spot. Similarly, the Flames are a long-term 58-62, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 0.1 goals when playing at home after allowing two goals or fewer in three consecutive games, as is also the case here. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (8*). |
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