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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-08-19 | Jazz v. Grizzlies +5 | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Utah at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the points with the Grizzlies as they host the Jazz on Friday night. We won with Utah in its last game, a victory in New Orleans on Wednesday night. I won't hesitate to switch gears here, however, as the Grizzlies have quietly been playing some solid basketball lately. Memphis is actually tops in the league in defensive rating over its last five games. Over that same stretch, the Grizz have gone 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. By contrast, the Jazz have dropped the cash in three of their last five games and haven't exactly had an easy time with the Grizzlies this season, dropping two of three meetings with their lone victory coming by eight points. Memphis is 6-2 ATS in the last eight matchups in this series. Take Memphis (10*). |
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03-08-19 | Raptors v. Pelicans +5 | 127-104 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Friday. Bettors have been quick to jump off the Pelicans with all of the drama surrounding Anthony Davis going back to before the trade deadline in February but the fact is, New Orleans has evolved into a pretty solid bet lately. Note that the Pelicans rank tops in the league in pace rating over their last five games. They're also a solid 12th in the league in offensive rating over that same stretch. Even in defensive rating, where they've struggled for the most part, they rank in the top half of the league over their last five contests. The Raptors limp into this game off back-to-back losses. We've actually cashed tickets fading the Raps in each of their last three SU losses. Toronto is a miserable 1-8 ATS over its last nine contests. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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03-07-19 | Pacers v. Bucks -10 | Top | 98-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Indiana at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Bucks are coming off rare back-to-back losses but I fully expect to see them bounce back in a big way in their return home following a long road trip on Thursday night. Milwaukee continues to push the tempo, ranking seventh in the league in pace rating over its last five games. By contrast, the Pacers check in second-last in the league in that same category over the same stretch. And we know the Bucks are more than capable of making the most of that up-tempo style, ranking seventh in the league in offensive rating over that time frame as well. The Pacers have held their own in that department as well but I simply expect them to get overwhelmed defensively here. Indiana checks in 26th in the league in defensive rating over its last five contests. This series hasn't been all that close this season with two of three meetings decided by 16 points or more and the other going the Bucks way by nine. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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03-06-19 | Jazz -4 v. Pelicans | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. Nice bounce-back and quick revenge spot for the Jazz here as they host the Pelicans. New Orleans is on a roll right now, even with Anthony Davis in and out of the lineup and playing very limited minutes. With that being said, I don't see them keeping it rolling as they return home off consecutive games playing in altitude. Note that while the Pelicans rank second in the league in pace rating over their last five games, they're just 15th in offensive rating over that same stretch. Utah holds the edge in both offensive and defensive rating over that five-game sample and the Jazz are obviously the superior all-around team in this matchup, even if things didn't go their way two nights ago. We're being asked to lay a reasonable number in this strong motivational spot for Utah. Take Utah (10*). |
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03-05-19 | Rockets +3.5 v. Raptors | 107-95 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Raptors in a similar spot at home last week against the Celtics but then went ahead and faded them in Sunday's overtime loss in Detroit. Toronto will have Kawhi Leonard back at its disposal tonight but I'm not sure that will be enough. The Rockets have won five games in a row, scoring at least 115 points in all five contests. Sunday's game wasn't really as close as the final score indicated in Boston as the Rockets let up in the fourth quarter. They won't be afforded that luxury on Tuesday night as the Raptors present a bigger challenge. With that being said, I like catching points with a team playing as well, and with as much confidence as the Rockets. Take Houston (10*). |
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03-05-19 | Bulls +7.5 v. Pacers | Top | 96-105 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Indiana at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Bulls as they continue to play well despite most believing they're in 'tank mode'. Chicago has gone 5-2 ATS over its last seven games and has won four games in a row straight-up on the road. While the Bulls rank only 19th in the league in pace rating over their last five games, the Pacers have been far worse, ranking 29th. In terms of offensive rating, the Bulls sit just one spot behind the Pacers over that same stretch, ranking sixth. After a terrific run, the Pacers have now gone 1-3 straight-up and ATS over their last four games. The Bulls have grabbed the cash in three straight and five of the last six meetings in this series and I look for them to hang tough again tonight. Take Chicago (10*). |
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03-04-19 | Clippers +4.5 v. Lakers | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers plus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers at 10:35 pm et on Monday. Everything seemed to come unglued for the Lakers on Saturday night in Phoenix and now their chances of reaching the playoffs are all but gone. Meanwhile the Clippers are in the thick of the playoff picture sitting six games over .500 and with only two losses over their last six games, with both of those coming in altitude in Denver and Salt Lake City. Both of these teams are top 10 in pace rating over their last five games, with the Clippers leading the way in a tie for fifth in the league in that department. While the Clips have lagged a bit offensively, not making the most of that pace they've been playing at, they catch a favorable matchup here with the Lakers ranking 25th in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. By contrast, the Clippers rank an impressive sixth in that category. Not surprisingly, there's no home court advantage to speak of here with both teams calling Staples Center home. In fact, the 'road' team has won four straight meetings in this series. Take the Los Angeles Clippers (10*). |
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03-03-19 | Raptors v. Pistons +4.5 | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Toronto at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Pistons on Sunday as they host the Raptors in Auburn Hills. Detroit ranks last in the league in pace rating over its last five games but the slow play has actually been working for it. Note that the Pistons have won eight of their last 10 games overall. They also check in sporting a solid 18-13 home record. Over their last five contests, the Pistons rank second in the league in offensive rating and sit just one spot below the Raptors in defensive rating, ranking 11th. Toronto is certainly rolling along right now, but the Raps have been far from invincible on the road, where they've lost 11 games this season. The Pistons actually took the lone previous matchup in this series this season, delivering a 106-104 win in Toronto back in November. Take Detroit (10*). |
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03-02-19 | Lakers -6.5 v. Suns | 109-118 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. We cashed a ticket fading the Suns last night as the Pelicans rallied to win by double-digits right here in the desert. There's little reason to expect anything different on Saturday night as the highly-motivated Lakers challenge the lowly Suns off a hard-fought home loss against the Bucks last night. Phoenix has few redeeming qualities. Not only does it have only 12 straight-up victories this season, it has gone just 26-37 ATS. None of the three previous meetings between these two teams this season have been close, with the Lakers winning all three games by double-digits. Note that over their last five games, the Suns check in 25th in the league in offensive rating and 29th in defensive rating. They have done a nice job pushing the pace, ranking ninth in pace rating over that time frame, but the Lakers have been even better, ranking fifth in the league. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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03-02-19 | Belmont -13.5 v. SE Missouri State | Top | 84-66 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
NCAAB Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Belmont minus the points over Southeast Missouri State at 8 pm et on Saturday. Belmont is one of the country's best kept secrets, having gone 24-4 overall this season, currently sitting atop the Ohio Valley Conference standings. The Bruins have now scored 90+ points in four straight games and I don't believe Southeast Missouri State will prove to be any match for them on Saturday night, noting that Belmont already took the first meeting between these two teams this season by 26 points. Just two nights ago, the Bruins routed Tennessee- Martin 112-67 as 11.5-point favorites. Southeast Missouri State is coming off a blowout win of its own, but that came against 9-20 Tennessee State. Expect a rout on Saturday night. Take Belmont (10*). |
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03-01-19 | Pelicans -4.5 v. Suns | 130-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Friday. Not all that concerned with the status of Anthony Davis in this one. If he plays, we'll consider it a bonus. The fact is, I expect the Pelicans to roll past the Suns, who are coming off their first win in a long time last time out against Miami. The Suns currently rank 28th in the league in both offensive and defensive rating over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Pelicans appear poised to take advantage, ranking second in the league in pace rating over that same stretch. Coming off a narrow loss against the Lakers in Los Angeles two nights ago, look for the Pelicans to bounce back in the desert on Friday night. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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02-28-19 | Jazz +7 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Denver at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. The Nuggets are certainly rolling along right now, winners of five games in a row to move to an impressive 42-18 overall this season. I do expect them to face a serious challenge on Thursday night, however, as they host the Jazz. Utah continues to battle for playoff positioning, currently sitting sixth in the Western Conference. The Jazz just wrapped up a perfect 2-0 homestand last night which was much needed after dropping a couple of close ones on the road at Golden State and Oklahoma City. I like the way they've battled and believe they can hang here in Denver, where they lost 103-88 much earlier in the season. I do think they're a different team now and I like the way the spot sets up here as they hit the road for this one-gamer before returning home to host the Bucks on Saturday. Utah's pace of play may handicap it a bit in this particular matchup, but the Jazz have made up for it, ranking second in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. Take Utah (10*). |
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02-28-19 | Warriors v. Magic +6.5 | 96-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Golden State at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Magic are coming off a disappointing loss to the Knicks at MSG two nights ago which came on the heels of a stunning upset in blowout fashion in Toronto on Sunday. We won with Orlando in that win over the Raptors, and we also won fading the Warriors in their loss to the Miami Heat last night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Orlando here. Note that the Magic rank second in the league in defensive rating over their last five games while ranking fifth in offensive rating over the same stretch. They're also second in assist-to-turnover ratio over that same period. While the Warriors obviously pose some challenges, I believe the upstart Magic will be up for it. Take Orlando (10*). |
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02-27-19 | Pelicans v. Lakers -5.5 | 119-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over New Orleans at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Lakers are coming off a disheartening loss in Memphis two nights ago, after which Lebron James made some harsh comments regarding teammates that may or may not be 'distracted' by the playoff push. Take from that what you will but I do expect to see the Lakers bounce back as they host Anthony Davis and the Pelicans on Wednesday night. Of course, New Orleans just defeated Los Angeles four days ago, and did so without the services of Davis. We last got involved with the Pelicans last week, fading them in Indiana, where they ultimately lost by 15 points. It's certainly been a tough stretch for the Lakers lately, but they've actually played only one home game since Lebron James returned from injury and the result was a 111-106 win over the Rockets coming out of the All-Star break. I'll lay the points in what is a strong motivational spot for King James and co. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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02-27-19 | Warriors v. Heat +9 | Top | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Golden State at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Heat may be struggling on the heels of nine losses in their last 11 games but they did give the Warriors all they could handle in a narrow two-point loss, on the road no less, a little over two weeks ago, and I look for them to hang tough on Wednesday night as well. Miami can ill afford to let its slide continue for much longer as it currently sits in 10th place in the Eastern Conference, a game-and-a-half back of the eighth and final playoff spot. Knowing they have to travel to Houston for another extremely tough matchup tomorrow night, I do think we'll see the Heat's best effort against the Warriors here. Golden State is coming off an 11-point win in Charlotte on Monday but has still failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven contests. Call it a lull, or call it whatever you want, but the fact is the Warriors are an elite team, not an elite bet - in fact, they've been one of the worst bets in the league since the start of last season. Take Miami (10*). |
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02-26-19 | Celtics v. Raptors -4 | Top | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Boston at 8 pm et on Tuesday. We won by fading the Raptors on Sunday afternoon as they were in a clear letdown spot at home against the Magic coming off Friday's emotional (close) win at home against Demar Derozan and the Spurs. The Raps lost that game against the seemingly overmatched Magic outright, in blowout fashion no less. Here I’ll switch gears and back Toronto as it hosts a big game against the rival Celtics. There’s not a lot separating these two squads talent-wise even if the standings say otherwise. The Celtics have taken two of the previous three meetings this season. We've actually won with both sides in this matchup this season. The Raps have a rested Kawhi Leonard for this one and I’m confident they’ll be back up for it after Sunday’s no show against Orlando. Expect a competitive game but I'll lay the short number. Take Toronto (10*). |
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02-24-19 | Magic +9.5 v. Raptors | 113-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Toronto at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. On the heels of seven straight wins, the Raptors find themselves in a letdown spot on Sunday afternoon as they host the Magic. Toronto's win over San Antonio on Friday was an emotional one as they hosted Demar DeRozan for the first time since he was dealt for Kawhi Leonard in the offseason. The Magic are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games and capable of hanging tough here, noting they've split two meetings with the Raptors this season, with their lone loss coming by just two points. Take Orlando (10*). |
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02-23-19 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State -10.5 | 46-85 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas State minus the points over Oklahoma State at 4 pm et on Saturday. This is a complete mismatch but the fact that Oklahoma State is coming off a win over TCU is helping to keep the line in check on Saturday afternoon in Manhattan. Kansas State checks in 10-3 in Big 12 play and has already blown out the Cowboys by 18 points, on the road no less, earlier this month. The Wildcats got a nice tune-up for this game, rolling to a 14-point victory at West Virginia last time out. Now they're back at home, where they last suffered a 14-point loss against Iowa State so their motivation level should be extremely high. Kansas State has won three straight meetings in this series, both SU and ATS. Oklahoma State has been one of the worst bets in the nation this season, going 9-17 ATS in lined contests. Don't count on any improvement here. Take Kansas State (10*). |
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02-23-19 | Blazers v. 76ers -2 | 130-115 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Portland at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. Too much respect is being given to the Trail Blazers in this matchup on Saturday afternoon. Portland is coming off back-to-back wins, keyed by a blowout win over the mighty Warriors prior to the All-Star break. But the fact is, the Blazers are just 11-15 SU on the road this season. They rank 20th in the league in pace rating over their last five games while the 76ers rank ninth in the same category. While the Blazers do show out well in terms of both offensive and defensive ratings over that same stretch, the 76ers have been even better. This is an awfully early start for a west coast team. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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02-22-19 | Pelicans v. Pacers -5.5 | 111-126 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana minus the points over New Orleans at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I absolutely believe the Pacers can frustrate the Pelicans all night long on Friday as these two teams come out of the All-Star break in much different positions. The Pacers actually rank dead last in the league in terms of pace rating over their last five games. I don't think that's a bad thing as they prepare to face the Pelicans here. Note that Indiana ranks second in the league in defensive rating and top 10 in offensive rating over that same stretch. Meanwhile, the Pelicans check in bottom half of the league in both categories over that period. Take Indiana (10*). |
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02-22-19 | Wizards +5.5 v. Hornets | 110-123 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the Wizards in their last game before the break as they hung tough against the Raptors in Toronto. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here as they stay on the road to face the Hornets on Friday night. Washington should be comfortable pushing the tempo in this one, noting that the Wizards rank number one in the league in pace rating over their last five games. They're quietly top 12 in the NBA in offensive rating over that same stretch. Their defensive play leaves a lot to be desired, but let's face it, so does the Hornets'. Charlotte ranks just two places ahead of Washington in terms of defensive rating over their last five contests. Take Washington (10*). |
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02-21-19 | Kings +12 v. Warriors | 123-125 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Kings as they come out of the All-Star break and face the Warriors in Oakland. Sacramento has quietly been pushing the tempo lately, ranking fifth in the league in pace rating over the last five games. Their offensive rating hasn't been great over that stretch but I see this as a fine bounce-back spot against a Golden State squad that ranks 18th in defensive rating over their last five contests. The Kings aren't ones to back down from a challenge. While they've gone winless in three tries against the Warriors this season, those three losses have come by a combined 10 points, including a one-point setback the last time they played here in Oakland. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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02-18-19 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech +5 | 64-58 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia Tech plus the points over Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with Virginia Tech in this rivalry matchup on Monday night. The Hokies lone home loss this season came exactly two weeks ago against Louisville. That started a pretty poor stretch as the Hokies have gone 0-3-1 ATS over their last four games. I do expect to see them put forth a strong effort here and it's worth noting that Virginia also brings poor form to the table, having gone 1-4 ATS over its last five games. Most will key on the Cavaliers big win on the road against North Carolina last week but I haven't been overly impressed with the way they've played lately. Virginia easily disposed of Virginia Tech by 22 points in their last meeting back on January 15th but I expect to see a different story unfold here. Take Virginia Tech (10*). |
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02-18-19 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Flames | 2-5 | Loss | -130 | 19 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 goals over Calgary at 4:05 pm et on Monday. The Flames have played six of their last seven games on the road and now return home one just one day rest following a big win in Pittsburgh on Saturday afternoon. The Coyotes have quietly won three of their last four games and I expect them to stay competitive against the Flames here in an early start matchup on Monday afternoon. Calgary has absolutely crushed Arizona in two previous meetings this season, outscoring the 'Yotes by a 13-2 margin while taking both matchups. Prior to that, the Coyotes had taken back-to-back meetings. I'll grab the extra goal in a game Arizona can keep close. Take Arizona (10*). |
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02-16-19 | Florida State v. Georgia Tech +6 | Top | 69-47 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
NCAAB ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Florida State at 2 pm et on Saturday. Wins rarely come easy for the Seminoles here in Atlanta, where they lost their last meeting by 22 points and their previous two victories on this floor came by two and four points. Florida State did take the first meeting between these two teams this season by 10 points, but that was thanks to an abysmal 28.3% shooting effort from the Yellow Jackets, including 3-of-21 from beyond the arc. The 'Noles enter this contest on the heels of three straight ATS wins. They haven't won four in a row ATS since starting last season with a perfect 7-0 ATS record in non-conference play. Georgia Tech has lost six straight games in ACC play to fall to 3-9 in-conference this season. With that being said, the Jackets have gone a solid 16-9 ATS overall this season. Take Georgia Tech (10*). |
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02-15-19 | Oilers v. Hurricanes -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 150 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina -1.5 goals over Edmonton at 7:35 pm et on Friday. The Oilers aren't close to turning things around right now. I actually believe things are even worse than they appear on paper. Edmonton has lost its last two games by a combined 8-3 score and I look for the Hurricanes to lay it on the Oilers on Friday night as well. Carolina breezed to a 4-1 win in Ottawa last time out. The Canes have had no trouble at all scoring lately and find themselves in another favorable spot here. Note that Carolina has gone 14-9-4 on home ice this season while the Oilers have won just once in their last four road games. Take Carolina -1.5 goals (10*). |
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02-14-19 | Thunder -4.5 v. Pelicans | 122-131 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Thunder as they try to stay hot heading into the All-Star break. It's worth noting that the straight-up winner has gone an incredible 31-2 in the Thunder's last 33 games overall. In other words, the spread simply hasn't played a factor. I do expect Oklahoma City to outlast the struggling Pelicans here. Note that the Thunder rank second in the NBA in pace rating and sixth in offensive rating over the last five games. They should be able to overwhelm a Pelicans squad that ranks 16th and 26th respectively in the same categories over the same time frame. This has been a relatively tight series with the last four meetings all decided by six points or less. With that being said, we're also dealing with a relatively low pointspread here, especially when you consider the disparity between these two teams in the standings. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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02-13-19 | Wizards +11 v. Raptors | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors may be the vastly superior team in this matchup as far as overall records go but the Wizards are actually just a half-game behind the Raps in terms of ATS marks. Toronto loaded up prior to the trade deadline, acquiring Marc Gasol in a blockbuster deal with Memphis. There's no question it's going to take Gasol some time to get acclimated, however, noting that he has split time with Serge Ibaka, playing off the bench, since joining Toronto. Washington put together back-to-back wins before dropping a nine-point decision in Detroit last time out. That result should have served to shake off most potential Wiz backers leading up to this one. The Raptors do check in having won five games in a row SU, but are just 3-5 ATS over their last eight contests. They rarely blow out the Wizards and I don't see it happening here either. Take Washington (10*). |
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02-10-19 | Ohio State v. Indiana -2.5 | 55-52 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Ohio State at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams have been rather disappointing this season with Ohio State checking in 5-6 in conference play and Indiana sitting at 4-8. Both have seemingly turned the corner a bit lately, however, with Ohio State reeling off two straight wins heading in and Indiana coming off an upset win at Michigan State followed up by a narrow home loss to Iowa. The Hoosiers have outscored the opposition by an average margin of nearly 14 points here at home this season. Ohio State shoots just a shade north of 40% from the field on the road this season. Take Indiana (10*). |
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02-09-19 | Colorado v. USC -4.5 | 69-65 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on USC minus the points over Colorado at 10 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Trojans on Saturday night as they host the Buffaloes in a Pac-12 showdown. There's not a lot to choose between these two teams as far as overall records go. I will point out, however, Colorado has not won here at the Galen Center since back in 2015 and that was an overtime win that easily could have gone either way. The Buffaloes check in off back-to-back SU and ATS victories. I just don't believe a third straight win is in the cards. USC is coming off a rare home loss, falling by seven points against Utah last time out. The Trojans have outscored the opposition by over 12 points per game here at home this season, holding them to just 66.2 points per game on 38% shooting. Take USC (10*). |
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02-09-19 | Auburn v. LSU -2 | Top | 78-83 | Win | 100 | 17 h 60 m | Show |
NCAAB SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on LSU minus the points over Auburn at 2 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with LSU as it tries to snap a three-game losing streak against the Auburn Tigers. The Bayou Bengals haven't defeated Auburn since 2016 although it's worth noting that they've been significant underdogs in each of the last three meetings. The shoe is on the other foot this time around as LSU is favored at the time of writing. Motivation should be high for LSU as it dropped its most recent home game as a 10-point favorite against Arkansas. Keep in mind, the Tigers are still 11-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 16 points per contest. Auburn checks in having won three in a row but it was favored by at least 8.5 points in all three of those games. The Tigers are just 1-4 SU in true road games, allowing nearly 80 points per game on just shy of 47% shooting. Take LSU (10*). |
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02-08-19 | Heat v. Kings -2.5 | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Miami at 10:05 pm et on Friday. I like the Kings here after they made moves to strengthen their team prior to the trade deadline. Unlike previous years where Sacramento was a seller, we saw it do some buying this year and I expect the players to get an emotional boost from that. Note that the Kings are already an impressive 17-11 straight-up at home this season. Here, they'll benefit from staying home for a fifth consecutive game. The Heat did win in Portland two nights ago, but that was their first victory in their last four games. They've actually posted three straight road wins but I believe some regression is in order. We've seen Miami post a strange home-road dichotomy this season, going 11-16 in South Beach but 14-11 on the road. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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02-08-19 | Bucks v. Mavs +8 | Top | 122-107 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Friday. The Bucks are one of the hottest teams in the league right now and certainly look unstoppable on the heels of five consecutive SU and ATS victories. However, here they'll be playing their seventh game in the last 13 nights in a seventh different city. The Mavs are no slouches here at home, where they own one of the strongest home court edges in the NBA, having gone 19-7 SU. Like the Bucks, the Mavs have also been tearing it up ATS, having reeled off five straight victories and gone 7-0-1 ATS over their last eight contests. The Bucks haven't won a game here in years. In last season's meeting on this floor the Mavs won by 32 points. Take Dallas (10*). |
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02-07-19 | San Francisco +18 v. Gonzaga | Top | 62-92 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
NCAAB WCC Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Gonzaga at 9 pm et on Thursday. Motivation should be high for the Dons as they try to avoid a third consecutive loss on the road in conference play. Their last two losses at San Diego and St. Mary's really could have gone either way. Despite those two setbacks, they're still a winning team on the road this season. Obviously Gonzaga is an elite team - a true national championship contender. With that being said, the Zags haven't been involved in a close game in months, essentially. They could actually use a bit of a sweat here and I think they get just that. Keep in mind, the Dons played even with the Bulldogs for a half in their previous meeting back on January 12th. Gonzaga shot better than 52% as a team in that game while San Francisco was completely off, hitting just 40.6% of their shots. I'm not about to call for an outright Dons victory here, but I am confident we'll see them stay inside the lofty pointspread. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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02-07-19 | Lakers v. Celtics -8.5 | 129-128 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Celtics as they host the unraveling Lakers on Thursday night. Los Angeles is obviously in complete limbo right now with the trade deadline coming up in a few hours. Maybe the roster remains intact, or maybe it will be looking for players off the street to court a team on Thursday night in Boston. Either way, I'm confident we see the Celtics show up and win this one going away. Boston is rolling along nicely right now and the beat goes on against the disjoined Lakers. Take Boston (10*). |
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02-07-19 | Raptors -9 v. Hawks | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. No doubt the Raptors have been watching what the Bucks have been doing lately and after picking up a statement win in Philadelphia on Tuesday night, I look for them to build on that performance with another rock-solid effort against the Hawks on Thursday night. Atlanta is back home following a seven-game road trip that took it all over the map. The Hawks should be a little 'fat and happy' off back-to-back wins to close out that trip. Keep in mind, those victories came against the lowly Suns and Wizards. Take Toronto (10*). |
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02-07-19 | Wolves +2 v. Magic | 112-122 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Orlando at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. While these two teams boast similar overall records, I do feel there's a class difference that isn't being properly reflected in the line. The T'Wolves have been coming out on the wrong end of some close games lately, but I'm confident they do get it figured out tonight in Orlando. The Magic simply ran out of gas in Oklahoma City on Tuesday and I think they're a little worn down right now, showing some real inconsistency of late. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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02-06-19 | Rockets v. Kings +2.5 | 127-101 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Houston at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm willing to bet against the Rockets winning three road games in a row on Wednesday night in Sacramento. Houston is coming off relatively lopsided victories in Utah and Phoenix but now heads to Sacramento where the Kings are playing excellent basketball. The Kings check in 17-10 straight-up at home this season, including a perfect 3-0 on their current homestand. It would be easy for the Rockets to look past the Kings to a return home after this one. That's especially true when you consider Houston already defeated Sacramento by 20 points in their lone previous meeting this season. The Rockets may own the superior SU record but the Kings have been a much better bet this season, going 31-22 ATS. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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02-06-19 | Georgetown v. Providence -3 | 76-67 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
NCAAB Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on Providence minus the points over Georgetown at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. I'll lay the points with the Friars in this matchup as they try to get back on track in Big East play following consecutive road losses. Providence just missed in the first of those two setbacks, losing by a bucket at Seton Hall. It suffered a bit of a hangover of sorts after that, falling by double-digits at DePaul last time out. I expect a solid bounce-back performance here at home, where the Friars have gone 9-3 straight-up this season. Georgetown hung tough for a while but ultimately fell by 12 points at Villanova on Monday night. The Hoyas have shown glimpses of brilliance this season, particularly in conference play. However, it's worth noting that Georgetown is just 1-8 in the last nine meetings in this series. That lone victory came in their most recent meeting back on January 12th but the Hoyas needed overtime to secure the 'W'. Take Providence (10*). |
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02-05-19 | Florida State v. Syracuse -3 | 80-62 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
NCAAB ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Syracuse minus the points over Florida State at 8 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up for Syracuse as it welcomes Florida State to the Carrier Dome. The Seminoles have climbed back to the .500 mark in ACC play thanks to three consecutive victories heading into this one. Keep in mind, the 'Noles are just 2-3 straight-up in five true road games this season. Florida State has never won here at the Carrier Dome, going 0-3, losing those games by 13, 13 and 10 points. Syracuse has suffered just one loss here at home in conference play and that came in a classic letdown/sandwich spot back on January 12th against Georgia Tech. The Orange were just a couple of days removed from a convincing win over Clemson before hitting the road to face Duke (a game they won) when they fell to the Yellow Jackets at the Carrier Dome. Syracuse has held the opposition to just 58.3 points per game on 37.6% shooting at home this season. Take Syracuse (10*). |
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02-05-19 | Islanders +1.5 v. Bruins | 1-3 | Loss | -190 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York +1.5 goals over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I don't often venture into this price range to back a team on the puck-line but in this particular case, I believe the move is warranted. The Islanders haven't lost a game in regulation time since January 12th. They haven't lost by more than a single goal since December 20th, and that was all the way across the continent in Las Vegas. Boston is coming off a 1-0 win in Washington on Sunday but remains just 2-5 over its last seven games. The Bruins have had their way with the Isles lately, but tonight I'm anticipating a competitive game all the way. Take New York +1.5 goals (10*). |
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02-04-19 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma +2.5 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma plus the points over Iowa State at 9 pm et on Monday. Absolutely huge spot for the Sooners here as they try to turn things around off back-to-back losses to Baylor and West Virginia. That loss to Baylor came in blowout fashion right here at home last Monday night so motivation will certainly be high as they host a rolling Iowa State squad on Monday night. The Cyclones. have won three games in a row and five of their last six overall, going 5-1 ATS over that stretch. Note that Oklahoma has held the opposition to 37.7% shooting at home this season. They check in a solid 8-2 straight-up at home while Iowa State is just an even 3-3 in true road games. This has been a home-dominated series and I like that trend to continue on Monday. Take Oklahoma (10*). |
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02-04-19 | Nuggets v. Pistons +4 | 103-129 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Denver at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Bettors will almost certainly be off the Pistons on Monday night after they absolutely imploded in the fourth quarter against the Clippers on Saturday afternoon at home. Here, they catch a favorable matchup, however, as they remain at home to wrap up a four-game homestand against the Nuggets. Denver is coming off a hard-fought one-point win at Minnesota on Saturday night. Now the Nuggets will be playing their fifth game in the last eight nights, with those five games coming in five different cities. Take Detroit (10*). |
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02-03-19 | Patriots -2 v. Rams | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England minus the points over Los Angeles at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. I have a lot of respect for the Rams. I don't believe the missed pass interference call in that win over the Saints tarnishes their appearance in the Super Bowl one bit. But here's the thing - motivation has probably never been higher for the Patriots and Brady and Belichick in particular. I simply don't see this New England squad losing back-to-back Super Bowls, plain and simple. I will say that if the Rams had a healthy Cooper Kupp I may actually be leaning their way here. His absence means that much. RB C.J. Anderson has stolen some of Todd Gurley's thunder for the Rams but I don't expect Belichick's approach to waver one bit - he'll key on Gurley in this one and force Anderson and ultimately QB Jared Goff to beat them. I do expect Goff to play well in this game and the fast track in Atlanta does favor the Rams and their incredible team speed. With that being said, the Patriots come in with a big chip on their shoulder, whether self-manufactured or not, and I look for them to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy once again. Take New England (10*). |
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02-03-19 | Stanford -5.5 v. California | 84-81 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Stanford minus the points over California at 4 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Cardinal on Sunday afternoon as they travel to face the listless Bears in Berkeley. Stanford is playing some of its best basketball of the season right now, having won three of its last five games, shooting just shy of 51% from the field over that stretch. Cal continues to struggle, having dropped nine games in a row, staying within single-digits in only three of those games. Note that the Bears are shooting barely above 37% as a team over their last five games while allowing opponents to shoot north of 52%. Take Stanford (10*). |
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02-02-19 | Rockets v. Jazz -7 | 125-98 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Houston at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The fact that this is a back-to-back spot for the Rockets has obviously been factored into this line. I actually feel the number is warranted, however, with Houston in a brutal spot here playing its second of back-to-backs in elevation. We won with the Jazz last night as they pulled away for a cover against the Hawks. I expect more of the same from Utah here. The fact of the matter is, the Rockets aren't a very good team right now. They have just four wins in their last eight games, with only one of those coming on the road, that against the lowly Knicks by just four points. Houston has fallen to 23-27-1 ATS on the season and owns just 10 straight-up victories in 24 road games. Utah is rolling along with 12 wins in its last 15 games. The Jazz have been extremely consistent at the offensive end of the floor over that stretch and should certainly have their way with the defense-optional Rockets. Note that Utah took the last meeting on this floor by 27 points back in early December. Take Utah (10*). |
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02-02-19 | Notre Dame +3 v. Boston College | 79-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Notre Dame plus the points over Boston College at 2 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Irish on Saturday afternoon as they aim to end their long losing streak at Boston College. Notre Dame has lost five straight and seven of its last eight games overall. However, it's worth noting that its last two setbacks have come as double-digit underdogs against Virginia and Duke so I'm not sure how much more could have been expected. Its previous three losses during its current skid all could have gone either way (decided by six points or less). Boston College has lost six of its last eight games but has managed to post victories in two of its last three games. It's been a long, long time since Boston College managed to beat Notre Dame. With motivation high for the Irish I believe the Eagles streak of futility with continue here. Take Notre Dame (10*). |
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02-01-19 | Hawks v. Jazz -11.5 | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Atlanta at 9:05 pm et on Friday. We cashed a ticket fading the Hawks in their most recent game - a blowout loss in Sacramento on Wednesday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as Atlanta remains on the road and plays at altitude in Salt Lake City on Friday night. The Hawks have to be a little road weary as they play their fifth game of this trip. They haven't been home in over a week while the Jazz are coming off a brief two-game trip that saw them win in Minnesota and lose in Portland. The Jazz are 15-9 at home this season and should have their way with a Hawks squad that gives up over 118 points per game on the road. The Hawks have taken two straight meetings in this series but don't count on a repeat performance here. Take Utah (10*). |
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01-31-19 | Mavs v. Pistons -2 | 89-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Dallas at 7 pm et on Thursday. We won (some pushed) with the Mavs in this same matchup last Friday night in Dallas but I won’t hesitate to switch gears this time around as the scene shifts to Auburn Hills on Thursday night. The Mavs did notch a very rare road victory last night but will be hard-pressed to follow it up with another one here against the revenge-minded Pistons. There’s no shame in the Pistons most recent loss, that coming against one of the league’s best teams in the Milwaukee Bucks. Solid value with the Pistons at home as a short favorite here. Take Detroit (10*). |
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01-30-19 | Hawks v. Kings -5.5 | 113-135 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Atlanta at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. This is an excellent spot to back the Kings as they return home to host a Hawks squad that is coming off an outright upset win over the Clippers in Los Angeles two nights ago. The Hawks are still not a good team and Sacramento has done a tremendous job of taking care of business against losing opposition this season, particularly at the betting window, where it has gone 16-5 ATS. The Kings aren’t going to land on most bettors’ radar on this night and I believe we’re being asked to lay a very reasonable number on their home floor. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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01-29-19 | 76ers -6.5 v. Lakers | 121-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Tuesday. Tough spot for the undermanned Lakers here as they try to follow up a win over the lowly Suns but take a considerable step up in class against the 76ers. This is obviously a big building spot for the Sixers as they will continue on to face the Warriors in Oakland on Thursday night. After dropping their last game in Denver, they can ill afford another setback here as things could really start to snowball. I don’t often lay this many points on the road, but I believe the spot warrants a play with Philadelphia welcoming back Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler on Tuesday night. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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01-29-19 | Ball State +12 v. Buffalo | Top | 59-83 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
NCAAB MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Ball State plus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Ball State may be just 2-5 in MAC play so far this season but four of those five losses could have truly gone either way and here we're being given a generous helping of points to work with as the Cardinals challenge the nationally-ranked Buffalo Bulls. Note that the road team has won three straight, four of five and six of the last nine meetings in this series. It's worth noting that three of the Bulls six ATS losses this season have come in their last four contests. Buffalo will be challenged here, facing a Ball State squad that averages over 78 points per game on 51.1% shooting on the road this season. Ball State is actually the slightly better free throw shooting team and can hold its own on the boards as well. Take Ball State (10*). |
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01-28-19 | TCU v. Texas Tech -4.5 | 65-84 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over TCU at 9 pm et on Monday. The Red Raiders come into this game riding a four-game ATS losing streak but did snap a three-game straight-up losing skid with a 67-64 win over Arkansas last time out. Note that they're 11-1 SU at home this season, where they shoot just shy of 50% as a team while limiting the opposition to a ridiculous 32.8% shooting. They're outscoring opponents by over 21 points per contest on this floor. TCU is coming off back-to-back wins over Texas and Florida but both of those games could have gone either way. They're just 1-3 SU in true road games this season. Texas Tech is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings in this series. Take Texas Tech (10*). |
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01-28-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma -6 | Top | 77-47 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
NCAAB Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Oklahoma minus the points over Baylor at 9 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the points with Oklahoma in this contest as the Sooners aim to put an end to Baylor's four-game SU and ATS winning streak. Motivation will obviously be high for Oklahoma as it checks in a disappointing 3-4 in Big 12 play this season. Meanwhile, Baylor has won four of its first six games in conference play. Note that the Sooners have held the opposition to 36% shooting at home this season, while shooting an impressive 47% themselves. We won with Baylor on Saturday as it got past Alabama but I won't hesitate to switch gears here. Take Oklahoma (10*). |
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01-26-19 | Evansville +3.5 v. Northern Iowa | Top | 74-81 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
NCAAB Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Evansville plus the points over Northern Iowa at 8 pm et on Saturday. Not a lot separates these two teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. In fact, they check in sporting identical conference records. With that being said, I believe Evansville has a little more upside and I'm confident the Purple Aces will hang tough for 40 minutes on Saturday night. Northern Iowa is 2-1 at home in MVC play but it averages just 61 points per game on 37.6% shooting on this floor this season. The Panthers also check in shooting a miserable 65% from the free throw line here at home. By contrast, the Purple Aces are shooting better than 74% from the charity stripe on the road. Take Evansville (10*). |
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01-26-19 | Alabama v. Baylor -3 | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Alabama at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Bears as they host the Crimson Tide on Saturday. Alabama is in a clear letdown spot after blowout out Ole Miss last time out. The Crimson Tide are still just an even 3-3 in conference play. This is of course a non-conference showdown - part of the SEC-Big 12 challenge. Alabama has gone just 2-3 straight-up in true road games this season where it allows nearly 72 points per game. Baylor rolls into this one off three straight victories, both SU and ATS. The Bears have held the opposition to just 61 points per game on 40.9% shooting at home this season. Take Baylor (10*). |
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01-25-19 | Pistons v. Mavs -4.5 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Detroit at 8:35 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with the Mavericks in this spot as they host the Pistons. Dallas has shown a strong home-road dichotomy this season, going 17-6 here at home compared to 4-20 on the road. I like the fact that the Mavs will have played six of their last nine games here at home while Detroit will be playing its seventh of its last 10 games on the road. The Pistons are coming off a win in New Orleans on Wednesday night, but keep in mind, that's a Pelicans squad that is currently playing without Anthony Davis. Detroit opened its current road trip with a blowout loss against the Wizards. Take Dallas (10*). |
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01-25-19 | Wizards v. Magic -3.5 | 95-91 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. These two teams may have similar straight-up records but I don't think there's any question the Magic carry more optimism and upside. Also consider that the Wizards are in a letdown spot here, even off a loss last night against the Warriors. That was a nationally-televised game and one that the Wiz were competitive in. Here, I don't believe Washington will be competitive, where it has gone a miserable 5-18 SU on the road this season. Also note that the Magic have taken the last two meetings on this floor by exactly nine points. Washington is being outscored by nearly 10 points per game on the road this season. Take Orlando (10*). |
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01-25-19 | Brown +7 v. Yale | Top | 71-79 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
NCAAB Ivy League Game of the Year. My selection is on Brown plus the points over Yale at 7 pm et on Friday. Yale got the better of Brown last week week, on the road no less, prevailing by three points as a small favorite. The Bulldogs have now reeled off seven straight wins but went just 3-3 ATS in lined contests over that stretch. Brown saw its six-game losing streak come to an end last time out and the Bears will be highly-motivated to avoid an 0-2 hole in Ivy League play tonight. While Brown hasn't had much success on the road against Yale, it's not as if it has had its doors blown off with regularity either. Note that three of its last four games here were decided by single-digits - all straight-up losses for the Bears. Yale has shot the lights out here at home this season but it will face a challenge here with Brown limiting the opposition to 38.7% shooting on the road this season. The Bulldogs did shoot better than 47% against Brown last weekend, but still won by just three points. Take Brown (10*). |
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01-24-19 | St. Mary's v. BYU +1.5 | Top | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
NCAAB WCC Game of the Year. My selection is on BYU plus the points over St. Mary's at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Gaels and Cougars renew their rivalry on Thursday night after St. Mary's routed BYU earlier this month. I like the Cougars to get back at the Gaels here, as they host them for the first time since December 2017. St. Mary's enters this contest riding a four-game winning streak, both SU and ATS. The Gaels are off to a 4-1 start in WCC play, although it is worth noting that their lone loss came on the road, where they've gone just 2-2 SU in true road contests this season. BYU checks in 9-1 at home, where it averages just shy of 84 points per game on better than 48% shooting while holding the opposition to under 40% shooting. The Cougars are coming off a blowout loss at San Francisco. Perhaps they were caught looking ahead to this matchup, noting that they had won three games in a row previously. I understand the logic behind the Gaels being favored in this matchup, but I'm confident we'll see BYU defend its home floor. Take BYU (10*). |
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01-24-19 | Pelicans +12 v. Thunder | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Thunder have won three straight games both SU and ATS but I believe they're laying too many points in this spot. Keep in mind, Oklahoma City is outscoring the opposition by less than seven points per contest here at home this season. They haven't defeated the Pelicans by double-digits since way back in December of 2016. Mind you, the Pelicans are without Anthony Davis right now and have dropped four of their last six games overall. Over that stretch they've lost just one game by double-digits, however. The Thunder have not fared particularly well in this pointspread range at home in recent years. I'm confident we'll see the undermanned Pelicans stay inside the inflated number tonight. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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01-23-19 | Texas v. TCU -4 | Top | 61-65 | Push | 0 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
NCAAB Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on TCU minus the points over Texas at 7 pm et on Wednesday. This feels like a letdown spot for Texas off Saturday's thrilling home win over rival Oklahoma. Prior to that, the Longhorns had dropped three games in a row. TCU is coming off a 10-point loss at Kansas State and has now dropped three of its last four contests. However, the Horned Frogs are a terrific 8-1 straight-up at home this season, including a 31-point beatdown of West Virginia in their last game on this floor. They're averaging just shy of 82 points per game on better than 51% shooting at home this season. Meanwhile, Texas is putting up only 67.7 ppg on the road. Also note that TCU has won its last two home meetings with Texas by 16 and 15 points. Take TCU (10*). |
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01-22-19 | Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech | 61-63 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Notre Dame over Georgia Tech at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Sitting at 1-4 in conference play, this is obviously a big game for Notre Dame. The Irish are coming off back-to-back losses at North Carolina and at home against N.C. State but both of those games really could have gone either way. I'll go back to the loss at Chapel Hill in particular. The Irish didn't play all that well in that game, but still lost by just six points. Georgia Tech has not played well in its last two games, dropping back-to-back contests both SU and ATS at Clemson and at home against Louisville. The Yellow Jackets have played relatively well at home this season but I'm not sure they'll match Notre Dame's motivation level in this one. The Irish haven't won on this floor since 2015 but all three matchups here since have been very close. Take Notre Dame (10*). |
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01-21-19 | Creighton v. Georgetown -1.5 | Top | 91-87 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
NCAAB Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgetown minus the points over Creighton at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the short number with Georgetown as it hosts a reeling Creighton squad on Monday night. The Blue Jays have lost four straight games and are giving up a whopping 82 points per game on just shy of 49% shooting on the road this season. Meanwhile, Georgetown will play with a lot of motivation here having dropped three straight meetings in this series, while also coming off a narrow 74-71 home loss to Marquette. The Hoyas are 9-3 at home this season, averaging north of 87 ppg on 45.6% shooting on this floor. Take Georgetown (10*). |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs -3 | 37-31 | Loss | -109 | 69 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over New England at 6:40 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Chiefs last weekend and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play this week as they host the Patriots in the AFC Championship. Home field means a lot in this matchup. We saw the Chiefs fall just short in a Sunday nighter in Foxborough earlier this season. I give Kansas City credit for sticking around in a hostile environment on that night. Not a lot went right for the Chiefs at times in that game, but they ultimately came just a hair short of pulling off the upset. Now the shoe is on the other foot as Kansas City gets New England at Arrowhead Stadium where it owns one of the strongest home field advantages in football. The Chiefs have been a completely different team here at home, particularly on the defensive side of the football. After manhandling the Colts surging offense last week, I believe they're in excellent position to contain Tom Brady and company this Sunday. On the flip side, the Chiefs can score on anyone and while the Patriots defense is playing well and has certainly been an opportunistic bunch, I'm confident in Kansas City's ability to mix things up through the air and on the ground and ultimately hang a crooked number on the scoreboard on Sunday. The Patriots absolutely annihilated the Chargers last week but won't be spotted a big early lead again here. The Chiefs get their revenge and advance to the Super Bowl. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -119 | 66 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Los Angeles at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. We cashed a ticket fading the Saints last week as they escaped with a narrow win over the Eagles. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back New Orleans this time around as they try to defeat the Rams for the second time this season, and advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in nearly a decade. Give the Rams credit as they made the red hot Cowboys look rather punchless in last week's dominant victory at home. But now they face a much tougher challenge as they travel to New Orleans, where the Saints own an incredible home field advantage. We didn't see the Saints bring their 'A' game offensively last week, but their defense more than made up for it with a particularly strong finish, keyed by a critical interception in the game's final minute. While the Saints run defense has been terrific this season, I do think the Rams will make some gains on the ground in this one. With that being said, I believe this game comes down to whether Rams QB Jared Goff can get it done against the Saints secondary, or at least keep pace with the legend on the other side in Drew Brees. I don't see it happening. The Saints offense has another gear that I expect to see it reach this Sunday. Unlike last week when their performance was a little disjointed, I look for New Orleans to come out strong and ultimately pull away for a win and cover to advance to the Super Bowl in Atlanta. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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01-19-19 | Dayton v. St Bonaventure +3 | Top | 89-86 | Push | 0 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
NCAAB Atlantic-10 Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Bonaventure plus the points over Dayton at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Bonnies at home on Saturday afternoon. St. Bonaventure is coming off a double-digit loss at Rhode Island earlier this week but that's no big surprise as it has gone 0-6 on the road this season. Here at home, the Bonnies have been more productive, going 5-2 straight-up. In fact, in their most recent home game they beat St. Joe's by a lopsided 73-47 margin. While they haven't enjoyed much success in this particular matchup, I feel they catch Dayton in a good spot here. The Flyers saw their six-game winning streak come to an end last time out, suffering a narrow 76-71 loss at VCU. The Flyers are now a miserable 1-7 ATS over their last eight contests. Take St. Bonaventure (10*). |
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01-18-19 | Maryland v. Ohio State -2 | 75-61 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Maryland at 6:30 pm et on Friday. Just a huge motivational spot for the Buckeyes here as they try to get back to even in conference play and host the red hot Terps on Friday night. Maryland has reeled off six straight wins but actually knocked down only 16 field goal attempts against Wisconsin earlier this week. Note that four of their last six wins have come at home, and three of those came by four points or less. The Buckeyes are coming off three straight losses but do check in 8-2 SU at home this season, where they average over 80 points per game on just shy of 49% shooting. The Terps have taken four of the last five meetings in this series but the last time they hooked up on this floor, the Buckeyes rolled to a 91-69 win last January. Take Ohio State (10*). |
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01-17-19 | Manhattan v. St. Peter's -6 | 58-56 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Peter's minus the points over Manhattan at 7 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Peacocks as they aim to build off a win over Marist and get past a reeling Manhattan squad on Thursday night. St. Peter's is 2-2 SU but 3-1 ATS in conference play this season and has an excellent opportunity to get back over the .500 mark here. Manhattan is coming off back-to-back blowout road losses in-conference and continues to struggle offensively, shooting below 40% as a team. Poor free throw shooting has really cost the Jaspers as they're connecting on just over 56% of their attempts from the charity stripe. It's also worth noting that Manhattan is allowing opponents to shoot 48% from the field on the road this season. Take St. Peter's (10*). |
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01-16-19 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Warriors | 140-147 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors are fresh off a record-setting offensive performance in a rout in Denver last night but now find themselves in a tough spot returning home on no rest to host a surging Pelicans squad. Keep in mind, Golden State still isn't a good bet on the season having gone 19-25 ATS. The Pelicans haven't been much better but have been sharp lately, going 4-1 ATS over their last five games. They're coming off a key road win over the Clippers in Los Angeles. They haven't been able to stack many road victories on the campaign, but are actually getting outscored by barely over a single point away from home. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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01-16-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -1.5 | 129-109 | Loss | -118 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Utah at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this spot sets up for the reeling Clippers, who check in having dropped three games in a row both SU and ATS. The Jazz are rolling, fresh off four consecutive wins but have actually dropped the cash in their last two games, and those came against the lowly Bulls and Pistons. Motivation will be high for the Clippers as they have also dropped three straight meetings against the Jazz. Their last win in this series did come right here in Los Angeles where they've gone 14-8 SU this season. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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01-16-19 | Spurs v. Mavs +1 | 105-101 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over San Antonio at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Spurs were all the talk last week, capping off an incredible run with a thrilling double-overtime win over the Thunder on national TV. Since then, they've dropped back-to-back games at Oklahoma City and at home against Charlotte. I'm not convinced they'll regain their footing here on Wednesday night as they hit the road to face the upstart Mavs in Dallas. The Mavs are also coming off a loss but it was a close one (by five points) against the Warriors so I'm confident in their ability to bounce back here, noting that they've gone 16-5 straight-up at home this season. Take Dallas (10*). |
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01-16-19 | Butler -2 v. DePaul | 87-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Butler minus the points over DePaul at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. Butler is coming off back-to-back conference road losses to fall to 1-3 in conference play. Keep in mind, both of those games could have gone either way with the Bulldogs falling by a single point in each contest. I look for the Bulldogs to bounce back against a DePaul squad they've defeated in nine straight meetings. The Blue Demons are coming off back-to-back wins over Seton Hall and St. John's. Butler checks in winless on the road this season with some disappointing numbers both offensively and defensively, but as I mentioned, they've held their own away from home in conference play and will be highly-motivated to pick up a much-needed victory here on Wednesday night. Take Butler (10*). |
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01-15-19 | Warriors v. Nuggets +2 | 142-111 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. Like the value being offered with the Nuggets as a small home underdog against the Warriors on Tuesday night. Denver actually has the better straight-up record and the vastly superior ATS record in this matchup. Not only that, but the Nuggets have taken five of the last nine meetings in this series. The Warriors are getting plenty of support, however, as they come in on a four-game winning streak. Still they've only managed to go 2-2 ATS over that stretch, dropping the cash in both road games. Denver has been a little uneven lately, and comes off back-to-back ATS losses, but remains a profitable 4-3 ATS over its last seven contests. Take Denver (10*). |
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01-15-19 | Seton Hall v. Providence -1.5 | 63-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Providence minus the points over Seton Hall at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. Seton Hall has taken three straight meetings in this series but I look for Providence to reverse that trend with a victory on Tuesday night. The Friars come in having dropped three straight games to open conference play. Prior to that they had won three games in a row both SU and ATS. Note that each of their last three losses have been relatively close including a six-point overtime loss at Georgetown last time out. Seton Hall checks in with just three ATS victories over its last eight contests. The Pirates have struggled to contain opposing offenses on the road this season allowing just shy of 74 points per game on 45.8% shooting. Take Providence (10*). |
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01-14-19 | Wisconsin +4 v. Maryland | 60-64 | Push | 0 | 23 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wisconsin plus the points over Maryland at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with the Badgers as they try to close the gap on Maryland in Big Ten play. Wisconsin is coming off an overtime loss on the road against Purdue last Thursday - marking its third loss in its last four games. Keep in mind, prior to that setback, the Badgers went on the road and won by 19 points as a small favorite at Penn State. Maryland is off to a red hot 5-1 start in conference play but its last two home wins have come by a combined five points. Wisconsin has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series. Take Wisconsin (10*). |
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01-13-19 | Eagles +8.5 v. Saints | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 44 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over New Orleans at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles got blown out of the water the last time they faced the Saints right here in New Orleans back on November 18th. However, much like last year, these Eagles are looking a lot different in January. QB Nick Foles has stepped in and relished the underdog role once again this year and I really do feel he’s a guy the entire team rallies around and they believe they can win with him under center. I liked some of the wrinkles the Eagles added to the offensive playbook against the Bears and it’s not as if they’re taking a step up in class, at least as far as the defense they’re facing goes, here in New Orleans. Playing against that vaunted Bears defense on the road was no easy task and the Eagles found a way to do just enough to secure a victory. The Saints are certainly tough to beat here at the Superdome but we don’t actually need the Eagles to win outright to cash this ticket. Keep in mind, during the regular season we saw the Buccaneers win outright and the Browns, Rams and Steelers all give the Saints serious scares here in New Orleans. If we know one thing about the Eagles, they’re not going to back down from a challenge and I’m confident they’ll find a way to hang around in this ball game. There are key matchups the Philadelphia offense can exploit against a good but not great Saints defense, enough so that they can stick around should this turn into a shootout. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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01-12-19 | Cowboys +7.5 v. Rams | 22-30 | Loss | -118 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. I’ve been a bit slower than most to come around on the Cowboys and did cash a ticket with the Seahawks (barely) in Dallas last Saturday night. With that being said, I see this as a fine matchup for Dallas and actually believe it is capable of pulling off the outright upset. The Rams look like the classic case of a team peaking too early. They closed out the regular season with just two wins in their last four games, and those victories came against the Cardinals and 49ers. As far as I’m concerned, this is a team that peaked in that classic Monday night shootout victory over the Chiefs back in mid-November. Playing last week might have actually been best for the Rams as it would have given them an opportunity to keep building. Instead they go from a standing start against a surging Cowboys squad that believes it can beat anyone right now. Dallas’ offense runs through RB Ezekiel Elliott and I’m confident he’s in for a big game against this beatable Rams defense. I really like what the Cowboys have going for them with Elliott consistently moving the chains and a tremendous defense that doesn’t give up many easy yards. The Rams have had time to add plenty of wrinkles to their offense and we’ll undoubtedly see that on Saturday night but I’m confident in Dallas’ ability to take some punches but remain on its feet. Take Dallas (10*). |
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01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs -5 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Indianapolis at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Colts in last week’s blowout win in Houston but I won’t hesitate to go the other way and back the Chiefs as they kick off what they hope will be a Super Bowl run on Saturday afternoon. First of all, we know that Kansas City owns one of the strongest home field advantages in football playing at Arrowhead Stadium. For the Colts this will be their third consecutive road game in as many weeks while the Chiefs enjoyed a much-needed off week to open the playoffs. I’ve been high on Indianapolis for much of the season but there’s no question it benefited from a favorable schedule and here takes a big step up in class against a hungry, talented and highly-motivated Chiefs squad. Note that the Chiefs have been a far better defensive team at home, where they hold the opposition to around 18 points per game compared to north of 30 ppg on the road. The Colts offense is good but not great. That unit has certainly been buoyed by the schedule they’ve faced. The same goes for the Colts defense, which runs into a true juggernaut here. I’m confident we’ll see the Chiefs march up and down the field all afternoon long on Saturday. There were concerns after the Kareem Hunt suspension and subsequent release but as we’ve seen across the league in recent years, running back has become somewhat of a ‘plug-and-play’ position and I like what I’ve seen from a rejuvenated Damien Williams in the backfield. Maybe the Colts keep up in a track meet but I’m more confident in the Chiefs getting enough stops on defense as the game progresses to secure a comfortable victory. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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01-11-19 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Jets | 2-4 | Loss | -126 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 goals over Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Red Wings are coming off a disappointing homestand that saw them win just once in five games. In fact, they've won just once in their last nine games overall. I do like the way the spot sets up for them on Friday night, however, as they head to Winnipeg to face a Jets squad playing the second of back-to-backs, noting that Winnipeg hasn't defeated Detroit by more than a single goal since November of 2016. In four meetings since, the Red Wings actually hold a 13-10 edge in terms of scoring. Take Detroit +1.5 goals (10*). |
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01-11-19 | Iona v. Niagara -1 | 90-95 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Niagara minus the points over Iona at 7 pm et on Friday. We cashed a ticket with ease fading Niagara in its last game, a double-digit loss on the road against Fairfield. That dropped the Purple Eagles to 0-2 in MAAC play this season but I expect them to get into the win column on Friday night as they host Iona. Both of these teams have a strong home-road dichotomy with Iona having yet to win on the road this season, going winless in five tries. The Gaels check in allowing over 91 points per game on 48.6% shooting on the road this season, opening the door for the Purple Eagles to get their offense in gear back at home where they've been a little uneven this season. Take Niagara (10*). |
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01-09-19 | Arizona State v. California +10 | 80-66 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on California plus the points over Arizona State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Arizona State is coming off a blowout home win over Colorado last time out, earning its first victory in Pac-12 play. I expect a bit of a letdown here as a matchup with Cal won't yield a great deal of motivation, noting that the Golden Bears are 0-2 in conference play so far and the Sun Devils swept the season series last year. Cal checks in 5-2 on its home floor where it averages over 76 points per game on 46.6% shooting. Arizona State averages 70.5 ppg on just north of 36% shooting on the road. Take California (10*). |
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01-09-19 | Predators v. Blackhawks +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago +1.5 goals over Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll grab the insurance goal with the Blackhawks as they aim to upend the surging Predators on Wednesday night. Note that Nashville hasn't defeated Chicago by more than a single goal at the United Center since April of 2017, when it completed a stunning sweep of the then-number one seeded Blackhawks in the playoffs. Earlier this season Chicago did get the better of the Preds here on home ice winning by a 2-1 score. Also note that the 'Hawks have lost just one game by more than a single goal in their last six contests. Nashville is in a bit of a letdown spot coming off back-to-back blowout wins over the Canadiens and Maple Leafs. Take Chicago +1.5 goals (10*). |
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01-09-19 | Pacers +6.5 v. Celtics | 108-135 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. With a blowout loss in Toronto suffered on Sunday night still fresh in their minds, I don't expect the Pacers to suffer any sort of letdown following last night's bounce-back win in Cleveland. Indiana has had some success here at TD Garden, coming away with straight-up victories in its last two stops. Also note that the Pacers took the lone previous meeting in this series this season by a single point in Indiana back in November. The Pacers check in having won seven of their last eight games overall. The Celtics are suddenly rolling, having won three straight games on their current homestand. Keep in mind, those wins came against the T'Wolves, Mavs and Nets. Note that the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 28-0 ATS in the Celtics last 28 games. If you're playing the Pacers, you might want to throw a little bit at the moneyline as well. Take Indiana (10*). |
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +5.5 | Top | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
NCAAF Game of the Month. My selection is on Clemson plus the points over Alabama at 8 pm et on Monday. This is the fourth straight year that the Tigers and Crimson Tide will meet in the College Football Playoff and after getting blown out in the semi-final last year, I fully expect Dabo Swinney's Tigers to respond with a strong performance here. I'll grab the points in what should be a far more competitive affair than we saw a year ago. Alabama has actually just covered one spread over its last four games, that coming in a 52-21 rout of Auburn back on November 24th. Meanwhile, Clemson rolls into this contest after blowing out Pitt in the ACC Championship Game and Notre Dame in the CFP semi-final. There's really not a lot more to say about this matchup than has already been said. I simply feel that taking the points is the right move in a game where there's little to separate two elite squads. Take Clemson (10*). |
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01-07-19 | Spurs v. Pistons +3.5 | 119-107 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over San Antonio at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with the Pistons as they catch the Spurs in a big-time letdown spot coming off a perfect homestand. San Antonio was certainly up for a three-game homestand featuring showdowns with the Celtics, Raptors (and Kawhi Leonard) and the Grizzlies. Now the Spurs will need to get back up for a trip out east to face the lowly Pistons. That's a tall task in my opinion. Detroit has struggled lately but still owns a winning record at home and will be high on motivation following a narrow five-point loss on this floor against Utah. The last time these two teams met at the Palace of Auburn Hills, the Pistons rolled to a 93-79 win last December. Take Detroit (10*). |
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01-07-19 | Niagara v. Fairfield -4 | 59-77 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Fairfield minus the points over Niagara at 7 pm et on Monday. Fairfield is in desperate need of a victory here at home as it has opened the MAAC slate with consecutive losses. Both of those games could have gone either way at home against Rider and on the road against Iona. Fairfield is also off to a winless start in conference play, falling by 10 points at Manhattan. Note that the straight-up winner has gone 10-1 ATS in all Niagara games where the spread has been in single-digits this season, as is the case here. In the same situation, the SU winner has gone 7-2-1 ATS in all Fairfield games. Niagara hasn't won a game on this floor since February of 2015 and I don't see that trend changing here. Take Fairfield (10*). |
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01-06-19 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 18 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Los Angeles at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll lay the points with the Ravens in this matchup as they catch the Chargers in a favorable matchup, playing an early afternoon game on the east coast on Sunday. The Ravens have already proven they can beat the Chargers, and they did so on the road no less, back before Christmas. Baltimore simply isn’t the same team it was earlier in the season. Since installing QB Lamar Jackson as the starting quarterback, the Ravens have gone run-heavy, in fact they’ve been the most run-heavy team in the league, playing keep-away against every opponent they’ve faced. I expect nothing different here, and I like the fact that they’re facing a Chargers squad that seemingly peaked too early this season, perhaps doing so on that Thursday night win in Kansas City in early December. I have a lot of confidence in the Ravens ability on both sides of the football, with their defense putting together an incredible body of work over the course of the entire season. Their ability to step up and finish off a surging Browns offense on the final season-saving drive last Sunday afternoon was tremendous. Look for them to build off of that performance here. Maybe I would have more confidence in Los Angeles were it not for all of the injuries do-it-all RB Melvin Gordon has dealt with. This is quite simply a beaten up Chargers offense right now, and one I can’t see walking into Baltimore and stealing a win on Sunday. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks +2.5 v. Cowboys | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. I’ll grab the points with the Seahawks as they have an excellent shot at ‘upsetting’ the Cowboys in Dallas. The Cowboys inexplicably showed up and played their starters most of the way on the road against the Giants last week (save for RB Ezekiel Elliott) and ultimately pulled out a victory on a miraculous Cole Beasley touchdown pass in the game’s final minute. Now they face a much tougher challenge and do so with a lot of pressure on them to win. Seattle is essentially playing with house money at this point. The Seahawks have exceeded all expectations after cleaning house and getting off to a sluggish start to the season. I love the evolution we’ve seen from the Seahawks offense over the course of the season with RB Chris Carson taking on a feature role. That should serve them well as they go against a Cowboys run defense that is good but not great, and showed signs of wearing down during the stretch run. Unlike the other west coast team on Wild Card Weekend (Chargers), the Seahawks benefit from getting a primetime game, and only have to travel two time zones east at that. Take Seattle (10*). |
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01-05-19 | Colts +2 v. Texans | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Houston at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. The Colts are arguably the league’s hottest team entering the playoffs and after winning with them last Sunday night in Tennessee, I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they travel to face the Texans on Wild Card Saturday. The argument can certainly be made that the Colts are the healthier team entering this matchup and I really like the advantage they have with their passing game against a Texans pass defense that looks a lot better on paper than it does on the field. Houston really benefited from a favorable schedule as far as facing elite passing offenses goes. Here, it will face an uphill climb against a red hot Andrew Luck, who has done a tremendous job spreading the football around in this Colts offense. Defensively, the Colts quietly had one of the better units in the league over the course of the regular season, and this is a group that really came together down the stretch. The Texans are capable of putting some points on the board this game, but I believe they will be playing from behind much of the way, and I’m not convinced that they can make enough clutch plays down the stretch to secure a win. Take Indianapolis (10*). |
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01-02-19 | Hawks +5 v. Wizards | 98-114 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Hawks were actually victorious in their last trip to the nation's capital last April, as double-digit underdogs no less. They've also managed to split a pair of meetings in Atlanta this season. While they may own an inferior overall record, they've actually performed better than the Wizards against the spread. That's not to mention the fact that they've gone 5-2 SU and ATS over their last seven contests. There's little reason to have much faith in the Wizards right now as they've won just three times in their last 12 games. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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01-01-19 | Washington v. Ohio State -6.5 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Washington at 5 pm et on Tuesday. I simply feel there is a considerable class difference in this matchup that isn't being properly reflected in the pointspread. If you're looking for impressive victories on Washington's schedule, they're pretty tough to find. I felt that it was a down year for the Pac-12 as a whole and when the Huskies did step up in class, they lost against Auburn (we won with the Tigers in that game) and also suffered a loss at Oregon. Ohio State closed out the season with five straight wins, including a rout of a game Northwestern squad in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Buckeyes scored at will for much of the season but also proved they could win in a defensive slugfest, posting wins (and covers) at Penn State and Michigan State. There are those that feel the Huskies can hang around with their defense in this matchup - I'm not so easily convinced. Take Ohio State (10*). |
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01-01-19 | Iowa +7.5 v. Mississippi State | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Iowa plus the points over Mississippi State at 12 noon et on Tuesday. I really don't feel there's a lot to choose between these two teams and see considerable value backing the Hawkeyes in an underdog role on New Year's Day. Mississippi State is being given the edge by the oddsmakers largely due to the fact that it plays in the SEC. But what did the Bulldogs do to really impress over the course of the season? There was a road win at Kansas State and a couple of blowout home wins over Auburn and Texas A&M but that's really it. Meanwhile, Iowa battled it out in the Big Ten all season long and did manage to stay competitive in tight road losses at Penn State and Purdue. In fact, all four losses the Hawkeyes suffered came by 11 points or less, with the largest margin coming in a home loss to Wisconsin way back on September 22nd. I'm anticipating a competitive affair here and will grab all the points I can get with Iowa. Take Iowa (10*). |
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12-31-18 | Pittsburgh +4.5 v. Stanford | 13-14 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Stanford at 2 pm et on Monday. The Panthers have been a pretty tough team to figure out this season, at least up until they had their doors blown off against Clemson in a true mismatch in the ACC Championship Game. Here, I do like Pitt's chances of sticking around against a Stanford squad that finished strong, but still ultimately disappointed in the Pac-12 this season. The Cardinal really had only one notable victory over the final two months of the season, that coming on the road against Cal in their regular season finale. Stanford is really only here thanks to taking care of business against the teams it should beat. I don't believe this is a gimme for the Cardinal by any means. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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12-30-18 | Colts -3 v. Titans | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Tennessee at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. A classic 'win and you're in' scenario sets up here as the Colts and Titans play to decide who marches on to the postseason. I have no problem backing the Colts as a road favorite here as they catch a banged-up Titans squad that has gone about as far as RB Derrick Henry has carried them down the stretch. Keep in mind, the Colts have been stout against the run lately, giving up just north of 3.2 yards per rush over their last seven contests. This game should fall in the hands of Andrew Luck and the Colts offense and with a balanced approach, I believe they can thrive against a Titans defense that is certainly stout, but will be missing one of its key cogs in DT Jurrell Casey. Save for an egg laid in Jacksonville earlier this month, the Colts have been the hottest team in football for the last two-plus months. I believe they're a playoff team and look for them to put a stamp on it in Tennessee on Sunday night. Take Indianapolis (10*). |
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12-30-18 | Raiders v. Chiefs -13.5 | Top | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Oakland at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the Raiders Christmas Eve win over the Broncos, and came close to backing Oakland in that game as well. I won't hesitate to switch gears and go against the Raiders as they close out the regular season on the road at Arrowhead on Sunday afternoon, however. The Chiefs have fallen on some tough times down the stretch, dropping three of their last five games heading into this one. Keep in mind, their losses came on the road against the Rams and Seahawks and at home against the Chargers so there was really no shame in any of those defeats. In that mix was also a narrow road win over the Raiders. The relatively close nature of that contest should help keep their guard up on Sunday afternoon. Not as if they need any extra motivation as they're playing for the number one seed in the AFC and could incredibly fall as many as four spots if things don't go their way this week. With the Raiders in a clear letdown spot, and heading into one of the most hostile environments in the NFL, I believe the oddsmakers have this one right. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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12-30-18 | Cowboys v. Giants -5.5 | 36-35 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. At the tail-end of a long, frustrating season, we should see the Giants go all out to end their campaign on a high note and perhaps give their faithful something to smile about heading into 2019. The gameplan should feature a ton of Saquon Barkley and he should have a field day against a Cowboys squad that has absolutely nothing to play for here. Jerry Jones has said that his 'Boys will be putting their best foot forward here, but I don't see it happening. Expect Dak, Zeke and others to see a series or two of action at most. Take New York (10*). |
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12-30-18 | Lions v. Packers -7.5 | 31-0 | Loss | -108 | 30 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. Not that we needed any further evidence that the Packers are intent on ending this season on a positive note, but we got it last Sunday in New Jersey as they rallied back late and defeated the Jets in overtime. Now they get another prime opportunity to build on those positive vibes as they return home to face the division-rival Lions. Detroit has won just twice over its last nine games and hasn't scored more than 17 points in a game since mid-November. Even against a very beatable Packers defense, I don't expect the Lions offense to get much done this week either. Having lost three straight meetings in this series, look for the Packers to go all out for the 'W' on Sunday afternoon. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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12-30-18 | Dolphins v. Bills -5.5 | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 29 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the Bills a couple of weeks ago as they won but failed to cover at home against the Lions. I expect a stronger offensive performance this time around as QB Josh Allen should have a field day against this Miami defense. The Bills defense has quietly been one of the most consistent units in the NFL this season. While we're dealing with a slightly higher number than I would like, I do think we'll see Buffalo control proceedings in this one as Miami peaked in that wild win over the Patriots three weeks ago but has gone in the tank since, going 0-2 ATS, losing those games by a combined 58-24 score. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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12-29-18 | Oklahoma +14 v. Alabama | 34-45 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma plus the points over Alabama at 8 pm et on Saturday. Most are anticipating a blowout in this 1 vs. 4 matchup but I believe Oklahoma can hang around and make life difficult for the Crimson Tide. Of course, when it comes to the Sooners it's all about their offense. Oklahoma is going to need a monumental effort from Heisman Trophy winner QB Kyler Murray but I do think he has it in him on the big stage on Saturday night. The Sooners have suffered just one loss this season, that coming way back in October against rival Texas, and it came by only three points. Oklahoma had little trouble avenging that defeat, scoring a 39-27 win over the Longhorns in the Big 12 Championship Game earlier this month. This is becoming old hat for Alabama and there's no denying the Tide are once again the nation's best team. However, I do feel the Sooners have an excellent shot at keeping this close, much like Georgia did in the SEC Championship Game. Take Oklahoma (10*). |
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