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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-16-18 | Raiders v. Broncos -6 | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Oakland at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Are the Raiders as bad as they looked in the final three quarters of Monday’s blowout loss to the Rams? In a word, yes. While they’ll have no problem getting up for this matchup with the division-rival Broncos I don’t believe they’ll be able to hang around for four quarters. The Broncos have long been a tremendous ‘play-on’ team at home in September and while they didn’t earn the ATS cover last week against Seattle, they did show me enough to believe they’re worth a play again here against the Raiders. It was a pretty sloppy performance from Broncos QB Case Keenum all things considered. With that being said, he still managed to spread the football around and prove that he’s developed some nice chemistry with his wide receivers, Emmanuel Sanders in particular. I look for the Broncos defense to play even better than it did a week ago, and the same goes for the Denver ground attack on offense. To be honest, I’m not sure where the Raiders go from here. Their offense looks broken (TE Jared Cook was the only bright spot on Monday night) and their defense is seriously downgraded after trading away Khalil Mack. This number could be even higher in favor of the Broncos in my opinion. Take Denver (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Cardinals v. Rams -13 | 0-34 | Win | 100 | 32 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I had just two regrets following Week 1 of the NFL season and one of them was not laying the points with the Rams on Monday night. As the betting public piled on with the Rams and the Raider-bashing reached monumental levels I really did believe there may have been a chance we were missing something with Los Angeles. That wasn’t the case as the Rams absolutely obliterated the Raiders following a sluggish first half. Now L.A. gets another very winnable matchup at home against another team that looks to be out of answers less than two weeks into the season in the Arizona Cardinals. There was a time when the Cards owned one of the strongest home field edges in football but those days are gone. It sounds like they’re going to give QB Sam Bradford another go this Sunday and I don’t expect that decision to end well. Even with a healthy David Johnson in the backfield Arizona was unable to get anything going in a shutout loss against the Redskins last week. Now the Cards face an even tougher challenge, on the road no less. The Rams certainly aren’t known to hold anything back when it comes to calling offensive plays. I expect to see them put their foot on the gas for four quarters against a division opponent here. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Texans -2.5 v. Titans | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams enter Week 2 with winless records but it’s the Texans that have a lot more upside moving forward. Houston ran into a really tough opening week matchup, facing the Patriots on the road in a revenge situation (for New England) after upsetting them in Foxborough last season. Not surprisingly, the Texans came up empty this time around with the Pats taking away their best weapons in DeShaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins. The Titans will do no such thing this week as they limp into this matchup following a storm-delayed loss in Miami last Sunday. Tennessee is dealing with a number of key injuries and is in serious danger of this season spinning away from it even if we are only into the second week. An injury to Marcus Mariota causes a serious downgrade to this offense as a whole, especially after the Titans got very little production from their running game against a middle of the road Dolphins defense last week. There’s really no intimidation factor at play here. The Texans have the veterans on board to right the ship, especially on the defensive side of the football. Take Houston (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Chiefs v. Steelers -4.5 | Top | 42-37 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
NFL AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Kansas City at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Steelers avoided complete embarrassment thanks to a blocked field goal at the end of overtime in Cleveland last Sunday but there’s no question it was an ugly start to the campaign for the Black and Gold. I have no doubt that we’ll see a much sharper effort from the Steelers, on offense in particular, as they host the Chiefs on Sunday. We won with Kansas City last week in Los Angeles but we were fortunate to cash that ticket as the Chargers were able to march the ball up and down the field against what certainly appeared to be a weak Chiefs defense. I’m not sure we’ll see Kansas City right the ship on that side of the football traveling across the country to face the Steelers in their second straight road game to open the season. You have to think heading into this two-game jaunt that the Chiefs would have been more than pleased to earn a 1-1 split. While they’d undoubtedly like to earn the 2-0 sweep now that they have the first one in their back pocket, I simply feel that the Steelers will be the hungrier squad on Sunday afternoon. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Eagles -3 v. Bucs | 21-27 | Loss | -114 | 29 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Eagles in last week’s season-opener against Atlanta although that winning ticket certainly didn’t come easy. I look for Philadelphia to have an easier time of it this Sunday as they head south to Tampa to take on the surprisingly 1-0 Bucs. Philadelphia didn’t get much at all from QB Nick Foles against the Falcons but perhaps that was to be expected after he was banged up in the preseason. While I’m not convinced Foles bounces back in a big way here, I do believe the Eagles have enough on offense, and a stout enough defense to outlast the Bucs. Tampa Bay turned a lot of heads by upsetting the Saints in New Orleans last Sunday. I don’t think there’s any question that the Saints overlooked the Bucs in that matchup. Perhaps ‘overlooked’ is not the proper term, but they certainly didn’t bring the proper level of compete – particularly on the defensive side of the football. There will be no catching the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles off guard here. They know what the Bucs are capable of after last week’s 48-point explosion. That’s an effort that just isn’t likely to be repeated. In a much lower-scoring affair than we saw with Tampa Bay last Sunday, I’ll lay the short number with Philadelphia. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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09-16-18 | Browns v. Saints -9 | 18-21 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. Let’s face it; Week 1 didn’t go well for the Saints, who lost as a big favorite, at home against a division opponent no less. I fully expect to see them bounce back here in Week 2 as they draw a favorable matchup with the Browns. Cleveland battled to a 21-21 tie with the Steelers last Sunday. Pittsburgh essentially handed that game to the Browns on a silver platter late in the fourth quarter and into overtime but Cleveland was unable to claim victory. Tyrod Taylor certainly didn’t look 100% healthy and also somewhat improperly utilized in the offense. I’m not sure we’ll see much change in that regard this week and the Saints defense will certainly be licking its chops after getting caught flat-footed by an aggressive Bucs offense last week. The New Orleans offense had little trouble shredding Tampa Bay last Sunday and I would expect more of the same against Cleveland. RB Mark Ingram’s absence didn’t have much of an impact as Alvin Kamara picked up the slack and then some with a monster performance. Look for Drew Brees to utilize TE Benjamin Watson against a vulnerable Browns defense this week. And of course the Saints wide receiving corps is as explosive as it gets. This has all the makings of a rout. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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09-15-18 | Florida State v. Syracuse +3 | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 40 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Syracuse plus the points over Florida State at 12 noon et on Saturday. The value has certainly shifted when it comes to Florida State after back-to-back relatively ugly performances against Virginia Tech and Samford. The Seminoles split those two games, getting blown out by the Hokies before posting a ho-hum 10-point win over Samford at home last Saturday. In that victory over Samford, the ‘Noles actually trailed 14-0 halfway through the first quarter and entered the fourth quarter down 23-21. In fact, with under five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, the ‘Noles trailed by a 26-21 score and only stretched out their eventual winning margin with a pick six with 2:23 left in the game (after they had scored a touchdown to go ahead). While Florida State scuffs along, Syracuse continues to impress. The Orange are off to a 2-0 start and although there’s no reason to get too excited about wins over Western Michigan and Wagner, I believe this is a team that has a lot to build from entering this big step-up game against a perennial ACC powerhouse. I liked the tune-up Syracuse got last week as it scored five offensive touchdowns en route to a 45-point first half against Wagner. In short, the Orange did what they should against an overmatched FCS opponent. Look for Orange QB Eric Dungey to keep rolling in this matchup as the FSU defense has looked vulnerable. Take Syracuse (10*). |
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09-09-18 | Bears v. Packers -7 | 23-24 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I’ll lay the points with the Packers at Lambeau Field on Sunday night as they host the rival Bears, who many are expecting big things from this season. I’m not as high on the Bears as most. There’s been a lot of talk leading up to the season surrounding just how exciting this Chicago offense will be but time will tell whether it plays out that way on the field or not. For now, the Bears have a tough opening week matchup against a Packers squad that starts the season with a renewed sense of confidence and most importantly, a healthy and well-paid Aaron Rodgers. Yes, the Bears boast a terrific defense, one that got even stronger with the addition of Khalil Mack. But Mack is just getting acclimated with this group and I believe it will take some time for the unit to completely mesh. I like what the Packers bring to the table on both sides of the football. Some see the departure of WR Jordy Nelson as a bad thing but I actually believe it will prove to be a positive for Rodgers and the offense. The Pack still have a solid WR corps and while their backfield doesn’t have much in the way of star power, I think it will do enough to relieve some of the pressure on Rodgers. We’re being asked to lay a considerable number of points with the Packers but I actually believe the line could be even higher. There are still a lot of unknowns when it comes to the Bears and I think their best football will be played from late September on. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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09-09-18 | Seahawks v. Broncos -3 | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 28 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I’ll lay the points with the Broncos on Sunday afternoon as they welcome the Seahawks to open the 2018 season. You probably haven’t heard much about the Broncos leading into this season as the Chiefs and Chargers have grabbed most of the headlines in the AFC West. I believe Denver is an excellent sleeper pick to win the division, but it needs to start here in September. Sure, there are some expected growing pains on offense with Case Keenum taking over at quarterback but I believe he’s more than capable of playing well, if not carrying the team. Here’s a guy that almost certainly has a big chip on his shoulder after being allowed to walk away from the Vikings in the offseason after showing so much promise in Minnesota last year. The defense is the real star of the show in Denver and that unit draws a favorable matchup here with the Seahawks at less than 100% on offense. QB Russell Wilson will make plenty of plays with his arm and his feet but his supporting cast seems to be getting weaker with each passing year. Meanwhile, the Seahawks defense is in a bit of turmoil due to the Earl Thomas situation and in transition with the departure of Richard Sherman in the offseason. There are simply too many question marks for me to support the Seahawks here, and too much upside to ignore with the Broncos. Take Denver (10*). |
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09-09-18 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Chargers | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Chiefs on Sunday as they open the 2018 season with an AFC West showdown with the Chargers. Los Angeles is receiving plenty of hype entering the new season with some even picking it to reach the Super Bowl. I'm not nearly as high on the Chargers. The Chiefs actually haven't lost a game to the rival Chargers since way back in 2013. I don't believe this is the Kansas City team to end that streak. I see the Chiefs as a team with a lot of upside entering the new season. QB Pat Mahomes may be a first-year starter but he certainly played like a veteran in the preseason and gained a lot of knowledge working behind a true pro in Alex Smith last year. Some believe that RB Kareem Hunt was a one-year wonder, but I'm confident that he'll give the Chiefs a lot out of the backfield once again this season. Meanwhile, WR Tyreek Hill has been getting better with each passing season and certainly looked in sync with Mahomes in the preseason. Defensively, the Chiefs do have some question marks, and they'll obviously be facing a tough challenge in the Chargers offense on Sunday, but I'm confident we'll see them play well. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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09-08-18 | Michigan State v. Arizona State +5.5 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 26 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona State plus the points over Michigan State at 10:45 pm et on Saturday. I’ll grab the points with the Sun Devils as they host the Spartans in an intriguing late night matchup on Saturday. Michigan State stumbled its way to a 38-31 home win over Utah State last week. The Spartans didn’t score a touchdown in that game until nearly five minutes into the second quarter and that was against what is by no means an elite Aggies defense. While Michigan State didn’t give up anything on the ground in that game, the Aggies didn’t really force the issue. Arizona State on the other hand, will. The Sun Devils wasted no time shaking off the cobwebs in a 49-7 rout of Texas-San Antonio. I like the offense head coach Herm Edwards has in place and I believe the defense will only get better as the season goes on. QB Manny Wilkins didn’t have to be perfect against UTSA but still managed to throw for 237 yards and four touchdowns. As far as I’m concerned, this is a good time to be welcoming Michigan State to Tempe. While the Spartans will undoubtedly be sharper than they were a week ago, I’m not sure it will be enough to win this one by margin. Take Arizona State (10*). |
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09-08-18 | Air Force +10 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
NCAAF Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Air Force plus the points over Florida Atlantic at 2 pm et on Saturday. I’ll grab the generous helping of points with Air Force as it aims for its second straight victory to open the season at Florida Atlantic on Saturday afternoon. The Falcons delivered a clean 38-0 victory over FCS squad Stony Brook last week. That wasn’t exactly a statement victory although it is worth noting that Air Force was favored by just north of two touchdowns in advance of that contest. I like the fact that the Falcons came roaring out of the gates with a touchdown on their first drive of the game and did a nice job putting things away for good with a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns as well. Needless to say, their defense was on point in a shutout performance. Florida Atlantic certainly didn’t expect to roll into Norman and come away victorious against Oklahoma last Saturday but it did believe it could at least stay competitive. That wasn’t the case as the Owls were blown out of the water, falling behind 42-0 before halftime in an eventual 63-14 rout. That certainly won’t do wonders for FAU’s confidence heading into this suddenly critical matchup with a tough out in Air Force. The Owls didn’t get much from their passing game and their ground game coughed and sputtered throughout the loss to the Sooners. They’ll get a lot more breathing room against a middle of the road Falcons defense here, but can they ultimately pull away to win by margin? I’m not so sure with Air Force more than capable of dominating time of possession and chewing up precious clock. Take Air Force (10*). |
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09-06-18 | Falcons v. Eagles -2 | Top | 12-18 | Win | 100 | 48 h 36 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Atlanta at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The defending Super Bowl champions have gone an impressive 11-3 SU since the NFL went to the Thursday night kickoff in the early-2000's. Of course, we saw the defending champion Patriots fall to the Chiefs last year, but I don't expect history to repeat itself with the Eagles here. It's certainly worth noting that the SU winner has gone an incredible 77-7 ATS in the Eagles last 84 games overall. We're dealing with a very short pointspread here, largely due to Philadelphia's numerous injury concerns - most notably absent from this game will be QB Carson Wentz. Nick Foles didn't look great in the preseason and also suffered an injury of his own but has put in a good week of practice with the Eagles first unit and I'm confident he'll hold his own against the Falcons on Thursday night. The Falcons are a solid team without question, but I don't believe they're the Super Bowl contender that most make them out to be. RB Devonta Freeman wilted at times over the course of last season while WR Julio Jones isn't the unstoppable force he once was. The addition or rookie WR Calvin Ridley will help, but I don't expect him to make all that much of an impact in this contest. The Eagles haven't lost a meaningful game at home since December 11, 2016. Look for them to make the key plays down the stretch in this one to secure a big opening night victory. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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09-01-18 | Washington v. Auburn -2 | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
NCAAF TV Game of the Week. My selection is on Auburn minus the points over Washington at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. To be completely honest, I've always felt that Washington head coach Chris Petersen was more than a little overrated. Ever since Boise State's thrilling upset win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl all those years ago, Petersen has been hailed as one of the best head coaches in college football. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't, but at least this week, I believe his Huskies are being overvalued. Both of these teams have national title aspirations but I'll gladly back the SEC team (playing in SEC country) against a Pac-12 squad that still has a lot to prove after a couple of unexpected losses away from home, not to mention a Bowl defeat against Penn State, last season. This line has fallen into clear 'play-on' range as bettors line up to back the Huskies in Atlanta. Take Auburn (10*). |
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09-01-18 | Washington State v. Wyoming +1.5 | Top | 41-19 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 42 m | Show |
NCAAF Contrarian Play of the Month. My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over Washington State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We've seen a considerable shift in this line since opening, moving in favor of Wyoming, which may seem a little odd given the betting public has been backing Washington State at a near 65/35 split according to most reports. The move of course has a lot to do with Wyoming's blowout win over New Mexico State, on the road no less, last week. With that being said, I still feel that the Cowboys are undervalued as they host Washington State on Saturday afternoon. Wyoming actually has its best team in years but it's somewhat muted by the loss of Josh Allen, who has moved on to greener pastures in the NFL. While NFL scouts loved Allen's make-up, the fact is, he didn't play well at all for most of last season, essentially holding the Cowboys back. There's little reason to expect any considerable drop in production at the quarterback position this season. Wyoming barely had to break a sweat in last week's victory but will obviously have to work a little harder to get a 'W' against a hungry Cougars squad. Following the tragic passing of QB Tyler Hillinski the Cougars are anything but settled at that position which is a bit of a new experience for them. This will go down as an upset, but shouldn't really be considered one. Take Wyoming (10*). |
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09-01-18 | Texas v. Maryland +14 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Maryland plus the points over Texas at 12 noon et on Saturday. There's obviously lots of turmoil surrounding the Maryland football program and combine that with the Texas 'revenge' angle following last year's 51-41 defeat almost a year to the day and you've got yourself a truly overvalued Longhorns squad entering Saturday's showdown. Unlike last year's shootout, I believe points will be at a premium this time around, which makes grabbing two touchdowns with the Terps that much more valuable. This is no layup for the Longhorns, as the Terps will play with a chip on their shoulder and will certainly be out to prove that last year's outright win as an 18-point underdog was no fluke. Take Maryland (10*). |
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08-31-18 | Colorado State +8 v. Colorado | Top | 13-45 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 3 m | Show |
NCAAF Rivalry Game of the Week. My selection is on Colorado State plus the points over Colorado at 9:30 pm et on Friday. Colorado State was shocked in its home opener against Hawaii last week, falling by a 43-34 score. I'm not sure whether that had something to do with the Rams simply overlooking the Rainbow Warriors or their head coach missing the latter stages of training camp due to health issues or just simply that they're not that good. Actually, I do not believe that it was due to the third notion I mentioned. This is a Colorado State squad that is better than it showed in Week 0. On a positive note, Washington transfer QB K.J. Carta-Samuels threw for over 500 yards and five touchdowns compared to just one interception. The Rams didn't get a chance to get their ground game going, but I expect that to change against Colorado. The Buffaloes bring no momentum to the table here after dropping their last three games to fall out of Bowl contention last season. If Colorado had one glaring weakness last season it was its run defense, something that I believe the Rams can exploit on Friday night. The Buffaloes should be able to dominate an overmatched Rams defense, but I believe it will take some time for Colorado to get rolling, especially after losing a number of key pieces on offense from a year ago. The Buffaloes have taken three straight meetings in this series with the last two coming in blowout fashion. Expect a reversal of fortunes on Friday night at Broncos Stadium. Take Colorado State (10*). |
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08-30-18 | Wake Forest v. Tulane +6 | 23-17 | Push | 0 | 47 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulane plus the points over Wake Forest at 8 pm et on Thursday. The Green Wave should enter the 2018 campaign with plenty of motivation after coming so close to reaching a Bowl game for the first time since 2013 last season. So close, yet so far away was the story for Tulane in 2017 but they'll be looking to make amends right out of the gate with what should be considered a difficult but winnable game against Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons did reach a Bowl game last season, and ultimately prevailed in a wild 55-52 affair against Texas A&M. That result alone should put plenty of backers in their corner here in the 2018 opener. Wake Forest will be relying on a true freshman at quarterback, at least for the first three games this season. While it's certainly possible Sam Hartman comes up big in his debut, I believe there's a better chance that he struggles against a capable Tulane defense. The common line of thinking is that the Demon Deacons have an advantage having had extra time to prepare for the Tulane triple-option offense, but I see it working in the Green Wave's favor here as they're rested and ready to go. Take Tulane (10*). |
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08-25-18 | Saints +2.5 v. Chargers | Top | 36-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
NFLX Preseason Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Los Angeles at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Saints couldn't follow up on their preseason-opening 24-20 road win over the Jaguars, falling by a 20-15 score at home against the Cardinals last week. I do expect to see Sean Payton's squad bounce back this Saturday, however, as they hit the road to face the Chargers. Los Angeles dropped its opener in Arizona but responded with a 24-14 win over the Seahawks last week. Keep in mind, Drew Brees has yet to play for the Saints this preseason, but he is expected to be on the field on Saturday night. I do expect to see Brees make more than just a cameo appearance here. Note that the Saints have gone a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS when on the road for their second to last preseason game - the so-called 'dress rehearsal' game - since 2004. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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08-25-18 | Chiefs +2.5 v. Bears | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City plus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have high hopes entering the 2018 season and both have looked impressive, at least at times, during preseason action. I simply feel that the Chiefs are a little further along in their progression at this point and I’m confident they’ll come away with their second consecutive victory on Saturday afternoon in Chicago. We saw the best of Chiefs QB Pat Mahomes in last week’s game in Atlanta as he threw for 138 yards and a score (to go along with an interception) and also ran the ball for a couple of nice gains. Defensively, the Chiefs have done a pretty nice job through their first two games and will face a Bears offense that is still very much a work in progress. Chicago did pick up its first win of the preseason in Denver last Saturday night as it rallied late for a 24-23 victory. Expect a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon at Soldier Field in what should be a fairly entertaining affair by NFL Preseason standards. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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08-24-18 | Broncos +3 v. Redskins | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection will be on Denver plus the points over Washington at 7:30 pm et on Friday. All eyes will be on Redskins newly-signed RB Adrian Peterson on Friday night but I expect him to have little impact on the outcome of this game. The Broncos have yet to taste victory here in the preseason after giving up a couple of late touchdowns in a 24-23 home loss to the Bears last week. I do feel they’ll put some relevance in grabbing a win here in Landover, even if it is still just preseason football. Meanwhile, the Redskins picked up their first victory in August last week against the Jets. It was a fairly ugly contest with both offenses struggling to punch the football into the end zone. There are still plenty of kinks to be worked out on offense for QB Alex Smith and the Redskins. I look for the Broncos to prove to be the sharper squad on Friday night. Take Denver (10*). |
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08-23-18 | Eagles v. Browns -3 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Philadelphia at 8 pm et on Thursday. It’s fairly evident through two preseason games that the Eagles are putting virtually no weight on August victories. Philadelphia’s main concern right now is getting its QB tandem of Carson Wentz and Nick Foles healthy before its regular season opener on September 6th. Foles is expected to see some action on Thursday but how much he plays and how vanilla the offense he is running is remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the Browns have drummed up plenty of preseason hype despite only splitting their first two games. Both Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield should get extended playing time on Thursday night and while there’s no true QB controversy in Cleveland right now – at least according to head coach Hue Jackson – both Taylor and Mayfield are playing like there is. I believe the oddsmakers have got it right installing the Browns as the favorite in this matchup and feel the line could be even higher were it not for the two teams’ reputations. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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08-16-18 | Jets v. Redskins -1.5 | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 71 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over New York at 8 pm et on Thursday. These two teams had much different experiences in Week 1 of NFL Preseason action. The Jets cruised to a shutout victory over the Falcons at home while the Redskins blew a 17-10 fourth quarter lead in New England - ultimately falling by a 26-17 score. I fully expect Washington to play with more purpose here as it tries to notch its first victory of the preseason. I like the fact that the Redskins employ a solid QB rotation with Colt McCoy and Kevin Hogan seeing the bulk of the action. Even Hogan has had plenty of experience playing in the preseason over the last couple of years. The Jets have a nice QB rotation of their own with rookie Sam Darnold and Teddy Bridgewater following veteran Josh McCown. With that being said, I'm not sure that trio can perform much better than it did last week, completing 21-of-27 passes for 185 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Even with that near perfect preseason performance they still only managed to score 17 points in the victory. After losing rookie RB Derrius Guice to a season-ending injury last week, the Redskins are in desperate need of a positive in the form of a victory this Thursday. Take Washington (10*). |
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08-10-18 | Lions +3 v. Raiders | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
NFLX Game of the Week. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Oakland at 10:30 pm et on Friday. The Lions have traveled all this way for their preseason opener in Oakland - might as well pick up a 'W' while they're at it. We have two new head coaches going head-to-head in this matchup with Matt Patricia for the Lions and Jon Gruden back with the Raiders. For Gruden this is old hat. The same can't be said for Patricia, however, and I really do feel that a win would mean something here as he tries to instill a winning culture in Detroit. The Raiders are basically set as far as position battles go on offense while the defense has undergone plenty of turnover across the board. I can't help but feel the Raiders defense is ripe for the picking here and the Lions have a solid preseason QB rotation with Matt Cassel and Jake Rudock getting the bulk of the snaps. I look for a strong performance from Rudock in particular here. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Lions. Take Detroit (10*). |
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08-09-18 | Cowboys v. 49ers -3.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Dallas at 10 pm et on Thursday. This is currently the biggest pointspread on Thursday's NFL preseason slate but it's warranted in my opinion. Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett puts little stock in preseason wins and losses. The 'Boys have gone 10-18-1 ATS in preseason action under Garrett. On the flip side, the 49ers went 3-1 ATS in Kyle Shanahan's first year as head coach in 2017 and there are certainly plenty of reasons for optimism here in 2018 as well. Perhaps no team relies more heavily on a handful of star players than the Cowboys, most notably RB Zeke Elliott. He'll see nothing more than a cameo appearance here, however, as will the rest of their regular starters. The 49ers have more depth on both sides of the football as far as I'm concerned, and I look for them to ultimately secure a win and cover on Thursday night. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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07-27-18 | Toronto +10.5 v. Winnipeg | 14-40 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday night. The Argos have a shot at some fast revenge against the Blue Bombers on Friday night, after falling by 18 points at home against Winnipeg last time out. I certainly feel that the Argos are better on both sides of the football than they've shown so far this season. QB James Franklin has made some progress since taking over for veteran Ricky Ray. Keep in mind, he guided the Argos to a victory over the Eskimos before falling by a single point against them on the road one week later. The Blue Bombers have alternated good and bad performances this season. They'll be looking to string together back-to-back victories for the first time. I'm just not sure they're any better than a .500 team at this point. Take Toronto (10*). |
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07-15-18 | Croatia +0.5 v. France | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 51 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Croatia +0.5 goals over France at 11 am et on Sunday. Has there been a more resilient bunch than the Croatians at this World Cup? After cruising through the Group Stage, Croatia has faced considerably resistance in the Knockout Stage, going to penalties twice and needing extra time to get past England in Wednesday's semi-final match. Now few are giving them a chance against France - the squad that many seemingly crowned World Cup champions about a week ago. While France does certainly pose a substantial challenge, I don't believe it is invincible. The French are absolutely at the top of their game but Croatia isn't about to back down after coming so far. I'm not sure that things are going to come so easy for the French offensively in this match. They were essentially able to to control proceedings from the start in both the quarters and semis. Look for Croatia to prove to be a thorn in their side on Sunday. Take Croatia +0.5 goals (10*). |
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07-12-18 | Calgary v. Ottawa +3.5 | 27-3 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over Calgary at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I’ll grab the points with the Redblacks on Thursday night as they aim to get back at the Stampeders after falling by 10 points in Calgary two weeks ago. Since that loss, the Redblacks have rebounded with a 10-point win of their own in Montreal last week. The loss to the Stamps remains the one blemish on their record so far this season. Meanwhile, Calgary remains undefeated but I believe they’re in a bit of a tough spot here, traveling off their bye week, and facing a non-division opponent. I am a believer that there is some parity in the CFL and that any team can win or lose in any given week. With that said, the Stamps have reeled off three straight ATS victories to open the campaign. At the very least I expect the Redblacks to take this one down to the wire on Thursday night. Take Ottawa (10*). |
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07-11-18 | England v. Croatia +0.5 | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 41 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Croatia +0.5 goals over England at 2 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with Sweden plus the half-goal against England in the quarter-final round after having cashed Colombia at virtually the same price against the English in the Round of 16. I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, only this time backing a superior Croatian squad. While there’s no question, the Croatians have enjoyed some luck along the way, now having won two games in the Knockout Stage by way of penalties – the last coming in stunning fashion against the host Russians. I can’t help but feel Croatia is the more battle-tested squad at this point, and while I’m not convinced they can win this match to advance to the World Cup Final, I do believe they’ll give England everything they have and more than likely force extra time at the very least. Take Croatia +0.5 goals (10*). |
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07-07-18 | BC v. Winnipeg -6 | 19-41 | Win | 100 | 33 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg minus the points over B.C. at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. It's worth noting that the straight-up winner has gone an incredible 40-3-1 ATS in the Lions last 44 games overall, including a perfect 2-0 mark so far this season. In this spot, I like the Bombers to prevail as they welcome QB Matt Nichols back from injury. Given they had a true rookie in there for the first three games, the return of Nichols is big, and all indications are that he's 100% healthy and has looked sharp in practice this week. The Lions have been inconsistent out of the gate this season and that's the type of play I would expect from them throughout the campaign. B.C. did prevail in its last trip to Winnipeg last season but I expect a different story to unfold here. The Bombers hung tough in their home opener against Edmonton, even without Nichols. Look for them to even their record at 2-2 on Saturday night. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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07-07-18 | England v. Sweden +0.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 37 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sweden +0.5 goals over England at 10 am et on Saturday. England has already and will continue to draw plenty of support from the betting public following its magical victory over Colombia. The English bandwagon is filling up fast, but could empty just as quickly if Sweden has anything to say about it on Saturday. Few gave the Swedish side a chance in this tournament but following a victory over Switzerland, here they are. Save for a late breakdown against Germany (who was in desperation mode following a tourney-opening defeat), Sweden has held its form tremendously in the face of adversity in this tournament. The Swedes will be undoubtedly facing their toughest challenge to date against an English squad that is without question at the top of its game. With that being said, we’re being given a cushion to work with here, and I believe there’s a good chance this one needs extra time to decide. Take Sweden +0.5 goals (10*). |
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07-06-18 | Belgium +0.5 v. Brazil | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
World Cup Quarter-Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Belgium +0.5 goals over Brazil at 2 pm et on Friday. Brazil delivered a dominant 2-0 victory over Mexico to reach this quarter-final match against Belgium, easily erasing the memories of what I would consider a less-than-inspiring group stage. Yes, the Brazilians rolled through that stage of the tournament relatively unscathed, but it never really felt as if they were at the top of their game. They’re going to need to be at that level in order to fend off a game Belgium squad on Friday afternoon. The Belgians got more than they bargained for against Japan in the round of 16 but managed to survive, scoring another three goals in the process. Belgium has looked explosive at times in this tournament. Even in a game they didn’t need, or perhaps even want to win, they still managed to defeat England in their final group stage match. I’m anticipating their best performance of the tournament on Friday as they give Brazil all they can handle and more. Take Belgium +0.5 goals (10*). |
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07-03-18 | England v. Colombia +0.5 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
World Cup Game of the Year. My selection is on Colombia +0.5 goals over England at 2 pm et on Tuesday. There's lot of optimism from English faithful right now as giant after giant falls in this tournament. I can't help but feel that a lot of folks are sleeping on Colombia, however. It's easy to forget that the Colombians made plenty of noise in the last World Cup but they remain an overlooked and undervalued commodity here in 2018. England has enjoyed a tremendous run to this point but I do think the Three Lions will regret not leaving it all on the pitch against Belgium in their final group stage match. At the end of the day I'm not sure there's any real advantage to being on one side of the bracket or another. Every match is tough, as the big favorites have learned here in the Round of 16. I'll gladly grab the generous cushion with Colombia in this contest. Take Colombia +0.5 goals (10*). |
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06-30-18 | Montreal +10 v. Saskatchewan | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal plus the points over Saskatchewan at 9 pm et on Saturday. Consider this line an overreaction to the Alouettes dreadful start this season. Montreal has looked rather lifeless in suffering back-to-back losses to open the campaign but can’t feel too terrible about its chances as it heads to Regina to face a Riders squad reeling after a blowout loss in Ottawa last week. I really thought we would see a different Riders team show up against the Redblacks last week, but that wasn’t the case as they were caught flat-footed and ultimately steamrolled. Maybe they bounce back here, but I’m not sure they’ll be able to win by margin against what will certainly be a hungry and focused Als squad. Remember, prior to last week’s beatdown against the Blue Bombers, the Als did lose by only 12 points in their season opener against the Lions in B.C. They have the pieces to stick around in a matchup like this (and no shortage of motivation following last week’s embarrassing loss in their home opener) as far as I’m concerned. Take Montreal (10*). |
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06-28-18 | Ottawa +8 v. Calgary | 14-24 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over Calgary at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Stampeders are coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins to open the season but what else is new? The Stamps are widely considered to be the favorite to win the Grey Cup, seemingly on an annual basis. This year is no different. With that being said, Ottawa just got its season underway last week and did a nice job making up for lost time, rolling past Saskatchewan by a 40-17 margin. I think this quote from Stamps head coach Dave Dickenson this week was telling, "They always start out the year, in my opinion, super-fast because it seems like their offence is clicking and they've been running the same type of stuff." The Redblacks have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings in this series - cashing in an underdog role on all three occasions. Take Ottawa (10*). |
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06-22-18 | Winnipeg -3 v. Montreal | 56-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg minus the points over Montreal at 7 pm et on Friday. The Blue Bombers have been installed as road favorites for a reason in this one. Winnipeg battled hard but ultimately fell short in a wild, high-scoring affair against Edmonton last week. The good news is, Winnipeg has had a couple of extra days off to recover from that minor setback (it wasn’t a game it was expected to win) and should respond favorably here. The Alouettes weren’t close in a double-digit loss to the Lions in Vancouver last weekend. Simply put, it’s going to be a long season in Montreal. While I don’t love the prospect of backing a rookie quarterback in his first road start north of the border, I’m willing to make an exception here as I just think the Als are that bad. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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06-21-18 | Saskatchewan +2.5 v. Ottawa | Top | 17-40 | Loss | -106 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
CFL Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Saskatchewan plus the points over Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Riders are off to a perfect start this season, defending their home field in an impressive 27-19 win over Toronto last week. They'll hit the road to face another East Division opponent this week and I look for a similar result. Note that the Riders are now 10-5 SU over their last 15 games going back to last season. They have a pretty solid track record against the Redblacks, having won four of five meetings since the start of the 2016 season. They won both games in Ottawa last season by a combined 49-37 score and have reeled off three straight victories in the nation's capital. I simply feel that Saskatchewan has more upside in this early stage of the 2018 season. Take Saskatchewan (10*). |
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06-20-18 | Saudi Arabia v. Uruguay -2 | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Uruguay -2 goals over Saudi Arabia at 11 am et on Wednesday. I see this as a fairly low-risk bet. While there's a high probability we only manage a push with Uruguay, I believe there's a good chance we see it roll past an overmatched Saudi Arabia squad that has already been steamrolled by Russia in this tournament. With Russia rolling along, it's up to Uruguay to build on its positive margin here, noting that the Uruguayans only managed to beat Egypt by a 1-0 score with a late goal in their World Cup opener. We're being afforded some value here based on that tight result. Take Uruguay - 2 goals (10*). |
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06-18-18 | South Korea +0.5 v. Sweden | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Korea +0.5 goals over Sweden at 8 am et on Monday. I'll grab the half-goal with South Korea on Monday as it opens its World Cup against Sweden, a squad that stumbles into this tournament. I guess you could say that both of these teams have staggered their way into this tournament. South Korea hasn't scored in its last two matches and hasn't won in its last three matches. However, Sweden has not been any better, having not posted a victory since defeating Italy 1-0 last November. Note that Sweden hasn't scored a single goal in its last three matches. Both teams would be happy to get on the board with a point in this match, and I do feel that the draw is a probable outcome. With that being said, I see value grabbing the half-goal cushion with the South Koreans. Take South Korea +0.5 goals (10*). |
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06-15-18 | Spain v. Portugal +0.5 | 3-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portugal +0.5 goals over Spain at 2 pm et on Friday. I'll take a flyer on Portugal as it faces Spain in what is being anticipated as one of the matches of the tournament on Friday. I don't think there's any question, it's Spain that has the pedigree and the organization to prevail against the defending European champions. With that being said, I'm not about to count out the heart of the Portuguese, who I don't believe we saw their best during tune-up matches leading up to this tournament. I'll chalk it up to them not wanting to lay all of their cards on the table in advance of this big opening showdown. Spain defeated Argentina by an impressive 6-1 score back in March. Few will expect to see the Spaniards go down in their World Cup opener, but we don't necessarily need a Portugal win here. Instead we'll grab the half-goal and count on an ultra-competitive affair. Take Portugal +0.5 goals (10*). |
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06-14-18 | Twins v. Tigers +1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 runs over Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab the insurance run with the Tigers as they wrap up their series with the Twins on Thursday afternoon at Comerica Park. Lance Lynn will take the ball for Minnesota. He checks in having allowed two earned runs or less in four straight starts. However, he has labored through his last couple of starts, needing 113 and 105 pitches to get through six innings in each outing. It's also worth noting that he has issued 10 walks in his last three starts, spanning 18 innings of work. Michael Fulmer got off to a fine start for the Tigers this season before running into trouble in May. He has shown signs of improvement over his last couple of starts, however, working six and seven innings - both here at home. Last time out he gave up just one earned run over seven frames against a pretty good Indians offense. Note that while the Tigers are just 4-9 in his 13 starts this season, they've actually posted an 8-5 mark factoring in the +1.5 run-line. Take Detroit +1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-09-18 | Lynx +4.5 v. Sun | 75-89 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Connecticut at 2 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Lynx on Saturday afternoon as they try to build off a win in Washington. Minnesota had surprisingly dropped four games in a row before righting the ship with an 88-80 victory in Washington on Thursday. The Lynx will certainly face a stiff test against the Sun on Saturday, as Connecticut is off to a 6-1 start to the season. It is worth noting, however, that the Sun have cooled slightly, dropping the cash ATS in each of their last two contests. They're back home for the first time following a four-game road trip here, which always presents a bit of a tough spot. Minnesota ended a two-game slide in Connecticut with a win on this floor last season. Look for it to take Connecticut down to the wire at the very least on Saturday. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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06-08-18 | Warriors -5 v. Cavs | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 36 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Cleveland at 9 pm et on Friday. We backed the Warriors in Game 3 of this series and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with them again in the potential series-clincher on Friday night in Cleveland. Many believed this series was over before it started. While I did feel the Cavs could be competitive and push the Warriors a bit, after the way they lost the series-opener it became all about how they would respond in Game 2. The short answer was, they didn’t. Cleveland looked like a defeated squad in the second game of the series and while the Cavs did put up a fight in Game 3 on Wednesday, it wasn’t enough. Now it’s just a question of whether the Warriors have the motivation to end this on Friday night. I believe they will. Golden State has been very business-like in taking care of the Cavs so far in this series. They very much look like a team that wants to wrap this up as quickly as possible and not drag things out. As much as the Warriors fans would like to see their team win another championship at home in Oakland, I’m sure the Warriors themselves will be happy to board a plane back home with the Larry O’Brien Trophy in tow. It’s worth noting that the straight-up winner has now gone an incredible 16-1 against the spread since the start of the NBA Conference Finals. I’ll stick with that trend and call for the Warriors to finish the job on Friday night in Cleveland. Take Golden State (10*). |
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06-06-18 | Warriors -4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 59 h 46 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Cleveland at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We were always going to see the Cavs’ resilience level in Game 2 of this series on Sunday night. After the way the series opener played out, the Cavs were either going to show up with their best effort of the postseason or they were going to look down-trodden and very much like a team that is resigned to the fact that they cannot, and will not be able to win this series. We certainly saw the latter on Sunday night. Save for a couple of brief bursts early on, the Cavs appeared to be a beaten squad, both emotionally and physically. While Lebron James has appeared visibly frustrated for much of these playoffs, it certainly looked like all of the joy was zapped from his being after Game 1’s overtime loss. So now the series shifts to Cleveland and while the Cavs faithful would like to remain hopeful and ultimately help lift Lebron and company back into this series, I just don’t see it happening. The Cavs are being given respect still from the betting marketplace - otherwise we would be looking at a line approaching double-digits in favor of the Warriors, even on the road. I’m just not sure that respect is due at this point. The Warriors have looked disjointed at times in these playoffs – disinterested even. That comes with the territory as they aim for their third NBA title in the last four years. However, after toying with the Cavs in Game 2, I believe they can sense another championship in their grasp and I don’t think they’ll have any interest in messing around with the Cavs any longer than they absolutely have to. It’s time to move on from this “rivalry”. Take Golden State (10*). |
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06-03-18 | Cavs +11.5 v. Warriors | 103-122 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Golden State at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Cavs in Game 1 of this series and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 2 on Sunday night. The Cavs didn't force overtime by fluke on Thursday night. In fact, they just as easily could have won that game before overtime were it not for J.R. Smith losing sight of the score. There's no reason for the Cavs to hang their heads after that loss. If anything it should give them encouragement heading into this contest. The Warriors have now taken all three meetings in this series this season, going 2-1 ATS in the process. However, none of those victories came by more than 10 points. The Cavs know that they need a split here in Oakland if they want to have any hope of making a series of it. While I'm not sure if they'll be able to get the outright win, I will gladly grab the generous helping of points. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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06-01-18 | Mercury v. Lynx -8 | Top | 95-85 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
WNBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Phoenix at 8 pm et on Friday. The Lynx are off to a miserable 0-5 ATS start this season and have won just two of those five games straight-up. Keep in mind, the Lynx didn't drop their sixth game ATS until July 8th last season. I'm still a believer in this team and I'm confident we'll see them bounce back in a big way at home on Friday night. It is of course worth noting that Minnesota has been on the road for the last three games so it's not as if the Lynx have been falling flat at home. And this should be a favorable matchup for Minnesota as it went 3-0-1 ATS against the Mercury last season. In fact, the Lynx are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings with the Mercury. Phoenix isn't off to a banner start to 2018 either, having lost three games in a row entering this one. I simply feel that Minnesota has a lot more upside right now and back at home I expect to see a much more focused effort. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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05-31-18 | Cavs +12.5 v. Warriors | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. The vast majority of folks seem to think that this series is a foregone conclusion and that the Warriors are going to win in a walk. That was certainly the case last year as the Cavs managed to take only one game from the Warriors. I expect a different story to unfold this year, however, and actually see Cleveland giving Golden State a run. This may be one of the weakest teams Lebron James has ever carried this far in the playoffs, but I feel that only motivates King James more. He took his game to another level in the final two games against the Celtics and I look for some carry-over in the opener of The Finals on Thursday night. The Warriors have posted consecutive ATS wins only twice in these playoffs, reeling off three straight ATS victories just once (that was the first three games of the playoffs against San Antonio). Prior to that, the last time the Warriors won three in a row ATS was way back in February (8th to 12th). Neither of these teams have been good bets this season - when in doubt, grab the points with the underdog. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-30-18 | Nationals v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
MLB Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore +1.5 runs over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The presence of Max Scherzer on the mound has the Nationals installed as massive favorites in Baltimore on Wednesday night. But here's the thing; Scherzer has really been laboring lately, needing 121 and 114 pitches to get through his last two outings, allowing six earned runs in 13 innings of work. Going back to the start of 2011 he has made six starts here in Baltimore. His teams have won just two of those contests, and neither victory came by more than a single run. In other words, that's a perfect 6-0 mark for the O's grabbing +1.5 runs against Scherzer over the last seven plus seasons. David Hess will counter for Baltimore. The rookie has sandwiched two fine outings against the Rays around a rocky performance against the Red Sox at Fenway Park. It's not as if the Nats' have been tearing the cover off the baseball lately. I expect to see Hess hold his own in this matchup. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-29-18 | Mystics v. Storm -3 | 77-81 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Washington at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mystics are coming off a huge victory over Minnesota on Sunday afternoon, prevailing on the strength of a tremendous effort from their bench. I can't help but feel we'll see a letdown here, however, as Washington hits the road still undefeated at 4-0 on the season. Note that the Mystics haven't won a game here in Seattle since May 2016. Seattle has quietly gotten off to a solid start itself, having won three of its first four contests this season. The Storm seem to be gaining confidence with each passing game, even if they did have to hold on for a closer than it should have been victory in Las Vegas on Sunday (they led by 18 points at halftime but won by just seven). Their poor second half in that game may serve as a good lesson learned heading into this much tougher matchup on Tuesday. Take Seattle (10*). |
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05-28-18 | Warriors -5.5 v. Rockets | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Houston at 9:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the Warriors in Game 6 of this series on Saturday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them in Game 7 on Monday night. As I've mentioned this round, the SU winner has done a tremendous job of also covering the spread here in the Conference Finals, including a perfect 6-0 ATS mark in this series (perfect 13-0 ATS overall this round). That's a trend I see continuing here. The Rockets seemed to peak in Game 5 of this series, at least from an emotional standpoint. They didn't have it on Saturday night in Oakland, at least from the second quarter on, and now I'm just not sure they truly believe they can beat the three-time defending Western Conference champions in a winner-take-all affair. Golden State couldn't have played any worse than it did the last time it played on this floor in Game 5. We saw the Warriors finally wake up after a dreadful first quarter in Game 6 and I look for some carry-over from that performance here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-27-18 | Cavs +3 v. Celtics | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Boston at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. It seems as though the Celtics have won over the betting public as folks are lining up to back the C's at home in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday night. While we've won with the Celtics at home twice in this series I won't hesitate to switch sides here in Game 7 as I feel the value has swung in the Cavs favor after Lebron James' incredible performance in Game 6 on Friday. Even if the Cavs are without Kevin Love for this one, I still expect them to put forth a much better showing than we've seen in their first three games here in Boston. There's no question the Celtics are an emerging team in the East, they've more than proved that during this playoff run. I'm just not sure their time has come just yet. It's not often we see the home team run the table in the NBA Conference Finals, and I don't see it happening here either. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-26-18 | Rockets v. Warriors -11.5 | Top | 86-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Houston at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Warriors couldn't have played much worse in Game 5 of this series on Thursday night, as the Rockets rode a wave of emotion to a narrow three-point win. The fact that Golden State was in that game right until the end was telling in my opinion. I expect to see a much sharper performance from the Warriors on Saturday. While we're being asked to lay a steep price for sure, I do believe it's warranted, especially considering the Rockets will be without Chris Paul after he re-aggravated a hamstring injury in Game 5. Despite being up 3-2 in this series you have to think Houston is feeling a sense of doubt as it heads to Oakland - not a good feeling when you're looking to close out the defending champs. It's worth noting that the after the Cavs win and cover last night, the SU winner has now gone a perfect 11-0 ATS in this round. I certainly don't expect the Warriors to go down without a fight and feel confident they'll force a Game 7 in Houston. Look for that SU/ATS combo trend to continue here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-25-18 | Sky +7.5 v. Storm | 91-95 | Win | 100 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Seattle at 10 pm et on Friday. The young Chicago Sky face their first bit of adversity following a blowout loss at home against Atlanta on Wednesday. The Sky had opened the campaign with back-to-back victories. Meanwhile, the Storm are coming off an early season revenge spot, one they made good on in Phoenix on Wednesday night. I'm looking for a tightly-contested affair in the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Look for the Sky's young nucleus to bounce back with a big effort. Take Chicago (10*). |
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05-25-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -7 | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Boston at 8:35 pm et on Friday. There's been a pretty strong trend when it comes to Lebron James-led teams in the playoffs over the years, that being the SU winner more often than not covers the spread as well, no matter the pointspread range. We saw that trend break early in these playoffs but lately it has come back strong, with the SU winner going 8-1 ATS in the Cavs last nine games overall. I don't expect the Cavs to lose this series on their home floor on Friday night. We won with the Celtics on Wednesday in a game that was never really close. But the Celtics have yet to sniff out a victory here in Cleveland and don't expect anything to change on Friday night. Look for Lebron James to turn in his best performance of the series as the Cavs force a seventh and deciding game. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-25-18 | Nationals v. Marlins +1.5 | 9-5 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Nationals have dropped Max Scherzer's last two starts here in Miami and it's worth noting that Washington just wrapped up a six-game homestand in which it posted only two victories. The Nats are going through a bit of a lull right now and I believe we're getting excellent value grabbing the insurance run with the underdog Marlins at a plus-money return. Miami just went 3-3 on its most recent road trip and will hand the ball to Jose Urena on Friday. He checks in 0-7 on the season but hasn't pitched all that poorly. Note that Urena has worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last five starts. He needed only 72 pitches to get through six innings against Atlanta last time out. Take Miami +1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-24-18 | Warriors -1 v. Rockets | 94-98 | Loss | -103 | 24 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State over Houston at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. I don't think there's any panic at all in the Warriors as they head back to Houston with this series all knotted at two games apiece. Golden State was completely outplayed in two of four quarters in Game 4, ultimately falling by three points. Steph Curry and Kevin Durant combined to shoot 19-of-50 in the loss. Needless to say, I'm anticipating a strong bounce-back performance from that duo, especially if Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala can't go on Thursday night. The Rockets can't play much better than they did on Tuesday, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. I fully expect Warriors head coach Steve Kerr to make the necessary gameplan adjustments while the Warriors stars execute. Golden State knows it can win on this floor, having come away victorious in the series opener here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-24-18 | Mystics v. Fever +4.5 | 93-84 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Washington at 7 pm et on Thursday. Quick analysis for this play on Thursday night. It's early in the season, but this is a big game for the Fever. Off to an 0-3 start (1-2 ATS) this is a winnable game for Indiana to finally feel good about itself after a tough stretch to open the campaign. We successfully faded Washington last time out against a short-handed Las Vegas squad. Yes, the Mystics have won their first two games, but they've failed to cover the spread in both of those contests. Washington has owned this series recently from a SU perspective, but Indiana has actually taken the last two games ATS-wise. Mystics are laying too many points here in my opinion. Take Indiana (10*). |
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05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. This has been the classic homer series so far and I don't see that trend reversing on Wednesday night in Boston. Everyone is quick to write off the Celtics after back-to-back losses in Cleveland, just as they were quick to write off the Cavs following the first two games in Boston. There are those suddenly questioning Celtics head coach Brad Stevens' decisions and his ability to make the necessary adjustments against Lebron James and company. I'm not buying into any of it. The Celtics have been a completely different team on their home floor in these playoffs, and really all season long. Boston is an impressive 36-14 SU at home this season while the Cavs are just a .500 team on the road. I like the fact that the Celtics didn't fold the tent after a miserable first quarter on Monday in Cleveland, outscoring the Cavs in each of the next three quarters in an eventual nine-point loss. I don't believe they'll be intimidated or crumble under the pressure in Game 5. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-23-18 | Dream v. Sky -2.5 | 81-63 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Atlanta at 12 noon et on Wednesday. I was waiting and still anticipate a better line with the Sky but with tipoff fast approaching we'll take a shot at the current price. The Sky are a young team, and they're still missing a couple of key pieces as league play wraps up overseas. With that being said, they have plenty of upside, and are off to a somewhat surprising 2-0 start - winning both games as underdogs. I like the way this one sets up for them as well as I consider Atlanta to be an overvalued squad as the 2018 season gets rolling. The Dream were blown off the court by Dallas in their season opener. While they'll undoubtedly show more fight in this one, I'm still not convinced it will be enough. Getting Angel McCoughtry back certainly helps their cause. However, as we saw in their opener, I do think the Dream are going to have a tough time finding consistent offensive production up and down their lineup. Chicago looks poised to go on an early season run and I'll take a flyer on the Sky here on Wednesday afternoon. Take Chicago (10*). |
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05-22-18 | Rockets +8.5 v. Warriors | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Rockets in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday night in Oakland. Houston put forth a miserable effort in Game 3, unable to build on what was certainly a strong performance in a blowout win in Game 2. Now it's up to the Rockets to come up with some answers and I do expect them to show up. Whether that leads to an outright win remains to be seen, but I do think the Rockets are going to stay inside the lofty pointspread here, noting that the Warriors remain a losing bet on the season at 41-53-1 ATS. Stay aware of the status of Andre Iguodala for the Warriors as he may be forced to miss Tuesday's game due to injury, which would obviously be a key absence. I'll make this play on the Rockets assuming he's good to go, however. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-22-18 | Aces +17 v. Mystics | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Washington at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Aces started their season with a thud on Sunday, falling by 36 points on the road against Connecticut. There was no real shame in that loss, however, as the Sun are poised for a big season and the Aces are still missing a couple of key cogs in the backcourt. With that being said, I do look for Las Vegas to give Washington a bit of a run on Tuesday night, even if it isn't being priced that way. Washington won its season opener by an 82-75 score over Indiana on Sunday. The Mystics certainly have the potential to do some damage in the Eastern Conference this season but I don't believe they belong in this price range, this early, regardless the opposition. Take Las Vegas (10*). |
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05-19-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. Cavs | 86-116 | Loss | -109 | 35 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. While the Cavs are certainly capable of getting back in this series and holding serve on their home court, I don't expect to see the Celtics back down, even with a 2-0 lead in their back pocket. The Cavs, even when at their best, have had a tendency to let teams hang around, or even creep back in late in the game - particularly at home - and I expect a similar story to unfold on Saturday night in Cleveland. Both teams had an extremely tough time making shots in the fourth quarter in Game 2 on Tuesday. Boston gave Cleveland every opportunity to get back in the game but the Cavs essentially stood around watching Lebron try to do it all (when they weren't doing that they were hoisting up ill-advised threes). Still, Cleveland couldn't take advantage. The Cavs are being given a lot of respect by the oddsmakers here, and perhaps rightfully so given their pedigree. I'm just not sure they'll have an easy time winning by margin. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-18-18 | Tigers +1.5 v. Mariners | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 runs over Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Mariners have been playing uneven baseball for the better part of the month and losing Robinson Cano to suspension certainly didn't help matters earlier this week. Since that word came down, the M's have gone 1-2, including a 3-2 loss in the opener of this series last night. Michael Fulmer will take the ball for the Tigers on Friday. His overall numbers aren't going to impress anyone this season but I do like the fact that he has at least worked into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts and I expect him to pitch better than he did against the Mariners last week, when he was tagged for six earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings. Note that in two previous starts against Seattle, Fulmer had allowed only three earned runs on eight hits in 11 1/3 innings. Felix Hernandez will counter for Seattle. King Felix checks in with a solid 5-3 record but has seen his ERA balloon north of five. Over his last two outings he has allowed 10 earned runs on 15 hits in just 10 2/3 innings of work. The Mariners are just 2-3 in his last five starts against Detroit. Keep in mind, Seattle has covered the -1.5 run-line in just three of its last 10 games overall. Take Detroit +1.5 runs (9*). |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm going to add the Rockets to my ticket on Wednesday night. It's amazing how perspectives change after just one game in a series. Leading up to this one, most expected a long, hard-fought series between arguably the two best teams in the NBA. After the Warriors prevailed in Game 1, a lot of folks are calling for a sweep. I don't expect it to be that easy for Golden State. Houston didn't bring its 'A' game on Monday night. There's no question about that. Of course, neither did the Warriors. With that being said, I do expect the Rockets to lay it all on the line in Game 2 on Wednesday, with a long layoff coming before the series resumes in Oakland on Sunday night. I don't believe the Rockets confidence was shaken by that double-digit loss in Game 1. They need to use home court to their advantage to make this a series. Look for them to do just that on Wednesday. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-14-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | 119-106 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Monday. Home court means something in the NBA Playoffs, especially in the latter stages - that's an understatement. The Rockets have certainly been dominant here at home this season, going 39-8 SU. We saw them take their game to another level against the Jazz last round. Save for a complete letdown in Game 2, they were the vastly superior team, toying with the Jazz at times. Here, they'll face a much tougher challenge and while I'm not about to predict the Rockets to win the series, I do believe they'll play with a real sense of urgency on Monday night, perhaps a little moreso than the Warriors who have been here before. The Rockets took two of three meetings in this series during the regular season, most recently prevailing by a 116-108 score here at home back in January. In that game, the guy I believe will be the x-factor in Monday's contest, Eric Gordon of the Rockets connected on just 2-of-14 shots, and went 0-for-9 from beyond the arc in a six-point performance. I look for much better things out of the super sixth man on Monday night. We've heard so much about the 'Hamptons Five' leading up to this series. For at least one game, I look for the duo of Harden and Paul to one-up that unit. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-13-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +2 | 83-108 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Cleveland at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Cavs haven't been a great road team by any means this season, going 24-22 SU. They did sweep both games in Toronto last round, but I expect them to face a lot more resistance against the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston has been playing with house money for much of the season, really since losing Gordon Hayward and then Kyrie Irving. This is very much a team that has played with a 'nothing to lose' mentality in the playoffs, and it has certainly served them well. Note that Boston is a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS at home in the postseason. The C's will certainly be up for this matchup. They held their own against the Cavaliers during the regular season, going 1-2 SU but 2-1 ATS. With that being said, a 121-99 home loss to the Cavs suffered back in February won't be far from their minds. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-09-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +1 | 112-114 | Win | 102 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Philadelphia at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Despite the 76ers delivering a convincing win in Game 4 of this series in Philadelphia, most bettors are lining up to back the Celtics here as the series shifts back to Boston. While I'm not a big fan of being on the same side as the betting majority, it doesn't mean they're always wrong. In this case, I do believe they have it right. The Celtics have been terrific at home this season, going 33-14 SU. We saw just how much they feed off the home crowd back in Game 2 of this series after they fell behind big early in the game only to rally and win. Boston certainly doesn't want to give Philadelphia any more life than it already has. I'm confident we'll see Celtics head coach Brad Stevens make the necessary adjustments. We certainly didn't see Boston put forth its best effort in its first shot at eliminating the Sixers but the Celts make up for it here. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-07-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. 76ers | 92-103 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Monday. Maybe the Celtics come out flat and get their doors blown off on Monday night but I see this one playing out differently. Boston has a chance to put away the 76ers and get some much-needed rest before an anticipated showdown with the Cavs and I look for it to take full advantage. Celtics head coach Brad Stevens has coached circles around 76ers boss Brett Brown. The 76ers seem to be having a tough time figuring things out with Joel Embiid back in the lineup and have looked nothing like the poised squad that disposed of the Heat in round one of the playoffs. Now with their backs against the wall I have no doubt that the 76ers will show up, but I simply believe they're laying too many points in this matchup. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-06-18 | Rockets -5 v. Jazz | 100-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Utah at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Rockets in Game 3 of this series and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Houston in Game 4 on Sunday night in Salt Lake City. I can't help but think that the Jazz's victory in Game 2 in Houston had more to do with the Rockets not bringing the proper level of compete than it did anything Utah was able to do gameplan-wise. The Rockets came out with a lot more intensity in Game 3 and blew the doors off the Jazz with only a late run making things look a little more respectable than it actually was. The common line of thinking is that the Jazz will make the necessary adjustments and get back in this series on Sunday, but I'm not so sure. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-06-18 | Warriors -6 v. Pelicans | 118-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over New Orleans at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Pelicans shot the lights out on their way to a Game 3 victory on Friday night. I look for the Warriors to answer back with a better defensive performance on Sunday, while also shooting better themselves after knocking down less than 40% of their shots last time out. We're being asked to lay a considerable price here, but we're backing the superior squad in a strong motivational spot. Expect a quality road game from the defending champs on their way to a win and cover. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-05-18 | Raptors +4.5 v. Cavs | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Cleveland at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The Raptors came unglued over the course of Game 2 of this series on Thursday, after falling in an opener that truly could have gone either way two nights earlier. While I don’t believe the Raps can actually win this series, I do think we’ll see them make things at least a little bit interesting with their most complete effort of the series on Saturday night. Yes, Lebron clearly has Toronto’s number but there’s no question that’s been factored into this line. The betting public will be quick to jump all over the Cavs as they return home with a 2-0 stranglehold on this series but I believe we’re getting solid value with the Raps in an underdog role, carrying a ‘nothing to lose’ mentality on Saturday night. Take Toronto (10*). |
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05-04-18 | Rockets -3.5 v. Jazz | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 26 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Utah at 10:30 pm et on Friday. The Rockets got off to a miserable start in Game 2 on Wednesday night, showing very little life and very much looking like a team that thought it would be able to sleepwalk its way to a series sweep. The Jazz pushed back and despite relaxing a bit and letting the Rockets back in the game in the third quarter, ultimately pulled away for a decisive victory to even the series at one game apiece. Now the series shifts to Salt Lake City and I expect the Rockets to come out with a lot more fire, and certainly put forth a more inspired effort. I can’t help but think this line would have been a little higher had Houston rolled to another victory in Game 2. Instead we’re looking at a short number to back what will undoubtedly be a highly-motivated Rockets squad that has shifted its attention back to the Jazz following the Game 2 wake-up call. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-03-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +4 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. The Celtics continue to get no respect from the betting marketplace as they once again find themselves in the underdog role on Thursday night. I can't help but feel that's just the way they like it. The home team has gone a perfect 8-0 SU in all Celtics game in these playoffs and I see that trend continuing here. The 76ers have enjoyed a tremendous season, not just SU but ATS as well. With that being said I didn't have them advancing past the Celtics at the onset of this series. Their time will come - just not sure this is the year. Boston is brimming with confidence right now and while most expect Philadelphia to bounce back, I believe the 76ers will have a tough time winning, let alone covering the spread. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-02-18 | Jazz v. Rockets -11 | 116-108 | Loss | -101 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Utah at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I believe it's highly unlikely that the Jazz are going to hold the Rockets to 110 points again on Wednesday night. I'm also not convinced that Utah can improve much offensively. Expect another lopsided result in favor of the Rockets in Game 2. Of course, Houston has had Utah's number this season, going a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS. The Rockets were able to shift into cruise control in the opener of this series on Sunday. While they can expect to get more of a challenge from the Jazz, I believe it's only a matter of time before Houston once again pulls away. The Jazz have exceeded most expectations reaching the second round of the playoffs. But that's as far as they go. Take Houston (10*). |
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04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +3.5 | 101-117 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Just feels like the wrong team is favored in this matchup, largely due to the circumstances by which the two teams got this point. The 76ers rolled past the Heat, facing little resistance along the way. Meanwhile, the Celtics were pushed to the limit by the Bucks, needing a big second half effort in Game 7 at home on Saturday night to advance. This has the makings of another long series and I certainly expect to see the 76ers hang tough in games played here in Beantown. With that being said, I don't believe the Celtics are getting any respect at all with this pointspread in the opener. Boston has faced a ton of adversity this season and so it should be comfortable entering this series as the underdog. Take Boston (10*). |
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04-29-18 | Pacers v. Cavs -5.5 | 101-105 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Indiana at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. Despite the fact that the Pacers have looked like the better team for much of this series, I have no problem with laying the points with the Cavs on Sunday afternoon. It comes as a surprise to most that we're seeing a seventh and deciding game in this series. Most thought the Cavs would roll past the Pacers but that has been far from the case. Keep in mind, Cleveland checked in as seven and eight-point favorites in the first two games in this series. Now we've seen the line drop to a more reasonable number, but in a must-win situation, I expect the Cavs will come to play. We won with the Pacers on Friday night, as that spot certainly favored the home team with their backs against the wall. Maybe the Cavs don't deserve to win this series, but I'm confident that Lebron James will have his squad ready. We're being asked to lay a reasonable number with what I still feel is the superior team. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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04-28-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 96-112 | Win | 100 | 34 h 23 m | Show |
NBA First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Milwaukee at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Bucks in Game 6 of this series on Thursday night as they ultimately pulled away for a convincing win, sending the series back to Boston for a seventh and deciding game on Saturday. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Celtics in this one, however, as it's now Brad Stevens turn to make the necessary adjustments and Boston's opportunity to defend its home floor, as it has throughout this series, and advance to the second round. Home court advantage is of course what the Celtics fought for all season, and it has certainly paid off in this series, with the home side winning all six contests. I think the fact that things have tightened up considerably does favor the Celtics here. We saw the Bucks struggle to score in Game 5 in Boston, managing only 87 points and I expect to see a similar story unfold here. Even in Game 6, it took a huge effort from Giannis Antetokounmpo with 31 points and 14 rebounds to secure a Bucks victory. In that must-win situation for Milwaukee, Boston showed plenty of fight, pulling with a bucket with just over seven minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Bucks ultimately had the greater will to win and prevailed, but here I believe we'll see that role belong to the Celtics. Expect Boston to bring its best effort of the series on Saturday night. Take Boston (10*). |
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04-27-18 | Cavs v. Pacers | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana over Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Friday. There's no reason for the Pacers to wave the white flag after dropping a tough one on Lebron James' last second heroics in Game 5. Indiana has been an excellent home team all season long, and even when the Pacers didn't bring their 'A' game back in Game 4 at home, they still only lost by four points. Look for the Pacers to make a last stand so to speak and force a seventh and deciding game in Cleveland where really anything can happen. Indiana has been right there with the heavily favored Cavs throughout this series and nothing changes on Friday night. Take Indiana (10*). |
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04-26-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -4.5 | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Boston at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Celtics took back control of this series and pushed the Bucks to the brink of elimination with a 92-87 victory in Game 5 of this series but I look for Milwaukee to answer back on its home floor on Thursday night. Celtics coach Brad Stevens made all the right moves last game, including inserting rookie Semi Ojeleye into the starting lineup to help defensively against Giannis Antetokounmpo. Of course, the return of Marcus Smart also gave the Celtics a big lift in a game they needed to win. With that being said, the margin of victory was still just five points. The home team has won all five games in this series so far, and while a few of those could have gone either way, each team has also recorded a blowout win on its home floor. While I'm not certain we'll see a blowout here, I do believe we'll see the Bucks make the necessary adjustments and force a seventh and deciding game in Boston. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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04-25-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -3.5 | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Utah at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Jazz will be looking to close out the Thunder in what would be a surprising result to most. I'm not convinced the Thunder can get all the way back in this series, but I do expect them to take a stand on their home floor on Wednesday night. Keep in mind, the Jazz are just 21-22 on the road this season while Oklahoma City has a decided home court edge having gone 28-15 here at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Russell Westbrook talked a good game following Game 3 of this series but wasn't able to follow it up with his performance on the floor in Game 4. Look for him to make amends as he helps guide the Thunder to a win and cover on Wednesday. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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04-24-18 | Heat v. 76ers -10 | 91-104 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Miami at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Heat put up a good fight at home in Game 4 of this series but now that they're down 3-1, I don't see them making a big final stand in Philadelphia on Tuesday night. The Heat have actually shown a tendency to fold the tent in this series, losing a pair of games by 27 and 20 points. The 76ers have certainly been a force at home this season, going 31-11 SU while outscoring the opposition by right around nine points per contest. Meanwhile, the Heat are six games under .500 on the road and simply don't score enough to keep up with what will surely be a highly-motivated 76ers squad on Tuesday night. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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04-23-18 | Rockets -5.5 v. Wolves | 119-100 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Rockets were set back on their heels in Game 3 of this series on Saturday night as the T'Wolves ran them out of the building in a 121-105 victory. I believe the shoe will be on the other foot on Monday, however, as Houston aims to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the series. Note that the Rockets had won eight straight meetings in this series prior to Saturday's contest. The T'Wolves have gone 2-1 ATS in this playoff series so far to snap a four-game ATS winning streak by the Rockets. Houston didn't bring the proper levels of focus and intensity to Saturday's game, but it will here. Take Houston (10*). |
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04-22-18 | Cavs v. Pacers | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Indiana at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. The Cavs may be down in this series but I'm not about to count out a Lebron James-led team, certainly not in the opening round of the NBA Playoffs. The Cavs by no means played their best game on Friday night, but they were still right there, losing by only a basket. While the pressure should rest squarely on the Cavs shoulders heading into this one, I actually believe it might be the Pacers that come out a little tight now that they've regained the series lead. It's not a must-win situation for Cleveland but it certainly can't afford to give the Pacers any more confidence at this stage of the series. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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04-18-18 | Pacers v. Cavs -7.5 | 97-100 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Indiana at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I've long supported the angle that the SU winner generally covers the spread (and vice versa) in games involving Lebron James-led teams in the playoffs. In other words, pick the SU winner and you usually have the ATS winner as well. The Pacers not only covered the number in Game 1 of this series but they won outright as well. Now I look for the Cavs to return the favor after having a couple of days to stew on that ugly result. There's no question we're being asked to lay a rather steep number here considering how good the Pacers looked on Sunday, but I believe the line is warranted. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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04-17-18 | Pelicans v. Blazers -6 | 111-102 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland minus the points over New Orleans at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. We stayed away from the opener of this series, which featured a rather surprising result with the Pelicans winning in a relatively low-scoring affair. I will get involved in Game 2 as I'm confident we'll see the Blazers bounce back and defend home court before the series shifts to New Orleans. Portland couldn't have played much worse than it did in the series opener, almost seeming surprised by the Pelicans defensive tenacity. Of course you can't really blame them after New Orleans gave up points in bunches throughout the regular season. While the Pelicans are saying all the right things leading up to this one as they try not to ease up after stealing the opener, I can't help but think that mission accomplished mentality sinks in just a little bit, enough for the Blazers to bring their 'A' game and deliver a decisive victory on Tuesday night. Take Portland (10*). |
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04-15-18 | Wolves v. Rockets -11 | 101-104 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Rockets on Sunday night as they begin their quest to ultimately dethrone the Warriors in the Western Conference. Minnesota battled hard in the final week of the season to eke into the playoffs, thanks to an overtime win over Denver on the final night of the regular season. I'm not sure they'll be able to keep that momentum going here though as they struggled mightily against the Rockets throughout the season, dropping all four meetings with the closest of those losses coming by nine points on their home floor. The Rockets have dropped the cash in six of their last seven games overall heading into the playoffs but that was of little consequence as they were just looking to stay healthy. This is certainly a favorable matchup for Houston and I look for it to make a statement right out of the gates. Take Houston (10*). |
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04-12-18 | Devils +1.5 v. Lightning | 2-5 | Loss | -150 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Jersey +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Devils at a bargain basement price catching an insurance goal against the Lightning on Thursday night. Few are giving the Devils much of a chance in this game or this series for that matter but I expect them to play well in the series opener. New Jersey came out of nowhere to contend for a playoff spot all season long and I believe they'll go into the postseason with a real 'nothing to lose' mentality. The Bolts certainly had their share of struggles due to injuries and otherwise down the stretch. Just feels like there's a good chance they sleepwalk a little bit out of the gate in this series. Take New Jersey +1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-09-18 | Pelicans v. Clippers +6.5 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over New Orleans at 10:35 pm et on Monday. The Pelicans are coming off a huge upset win in Oakland on Saturday night, beating the Warriors to improve their playoff standing. I look for them to stumble on Monday, however, as they head to Los Angeles to take on the Clippers. L.A. has dropped back-to-back games and four of its last five contests overall. The Clips are out of the playoff hunt but should relish playing the role of spoiler on Monday night. We're being given a considerable cushion with the home underdog in this spot and I believe they have a shot at the outright victory. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-03-18 | Raptors v. Cavs -1 | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Cavs have dropped just one game since St. Patrick's Day while the Raptors have played arguably their worst and most inconsistent basketball of the season since that date. It's going to take quite an effort for the Raps to come away victorious in Cleveland on Tuesday. I'm just not sure they have enough in the tank right now to prevail. The Cavs are brimming with confidence. They can make another big statement against one of the teams they're going to have to contend with in order to earn another trip to the Finals in June. At this stage of the season, I simply feel that Cleveland is the superior team and playing at home, I look for it to hold serve. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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04-02-18 | Michigan v. Villanova -6.5 | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Villanova minus the points over Michigan at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We've been backing Villanova each game going back to the Elite Eight and I see little reason to jump ship now. The Wildcats appear poised for their second national title in three years, and I don't expect the pointspread to come into play against Michigan on Monday night. Credit the Wolverines for rallying from a big second half deficit against a game Loyola-Chicago squad on Saturday night but the challenge will be a little tougher this time around. Villanova has been relentless over the course of this tournament, suffering just a few brief lapses. Look for the Wildcats to win this one going away. Take Villanova (10*). |
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04-01-18 | Thunder v. Pelicans +1 | 109-104 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Oklahoma City at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Pelicans on Sunday evening as they aim to end their three-game losing streak against the Thunder. New Orleans may have dropped three straight games coming in but there's really no shame in that skid as those losses came against the Rockets, Blazers and Cavs - three of the league's best teams. They'll face another tough test here, but I'm confident they'll be up for it. Note that the Thunder have also lost three straight games, including a tough one-point setback against the Nuggets last time out. In fact, their last three losses have come by a combined margin of only eight points. Nothing is going their way right now and I look for their woes to continue in the Big Easy. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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03-31-18 | Kansas v. Villanova -5 | Top | 79-95 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
Final Four Game of the Year. My selection is on Villanova minus the points over Kansas at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. Villanova was my pick to cut down the nets in April at the start of this tournament and I'm certainly going to stick with that prediction now that the Wildcats have reached the Final Four. The Wildcats were certainly challenged in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight last weekend, but passed both tests. Of course, Kansas was in a similar boat, including an instant classic against Duke last Sunday afternoon. But Villanova is favored for a reason in this one. Kansas is certainly a formidable opponent, after all the Jayhawks are a one-seed. I'm just not convinced the Jayhawks can hang within arm's reach of the Wildcats for 40 minutes on Saturday night. The Wildcats have the look of a championship squad once again under Jay Wright, and I look for them to post a convincing win on their way to Monday's title game. Take Villanova (10*). |
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03-30-18 | Clippers +6 v. Blazers | 96-105 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Portland at 10:35 pm et on Friday. The Clippers have won three games in a row and I don't think we'll see them simply roll over in Portland on Friday night. The Blazers have dropped three of their last five games overall including a shocking loss in Memphis last time out. Portland simply isn't an elite team, even if many were ready to buy in a couple of weeks ago. This game is nothing more than a toss-up as far as I'm concerned. I'll gladly grab all the points I can get with the underdog Clips. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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03-28-18 | Cavs v. Hornets +1.5 | 118-105 | Loss | -103 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I don't expect the Hornets to back down from the challenge posted by the Cavaliers on Wednesday night in Charlotte. The Hornets come into this game riding a four-game winning streak while the Cavs are in a tough spot having played in an emotional contest in Miami last night. This will be Cleveland's third game (in three different cities) in the last four nights. All the Hornets really have to hang their hat on at this point is playing the spoiler role against playoff-bound opponents. I don't think there's any question they'll be up for this contest. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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03-25-18 | Clippers +8 v. Raptors | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Toronto at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. The Raptors suffered a tough loss in Cleveland earlier in the week but did bounce back with a narrow victory over Brooklyn on Friday. That close call against the lowly Nets tells me the Raps weren't quite over that loss to the Cavs, and now with another sneaky-tough matchup on deck against the Clippers on Sunday, I'm not anticipating a dominating victory on Sunday evening. The Clips have dropped five of their last six games overall, coming at the most inopportune time. They can end this road trip with a 2-2 split though and I believe that will be motivation enough for them to at least stick around against the sleep-walking Raptors on Sunday evening. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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03-25-18 | Texas Tech v. Villanova -6.5 | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Villanova minus the points over Texas Tech at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Wildcats on Friday night as they pulled away late for a win and cover against West Virginia. I'm not sure that they'll find themselves in as much trouble on Sunday as they outmatch Texas Tech from the opening tipoff. Credit the Red Raiders for getting to this point. I considered them to be over-seeded as a number three entering this tournament but they've proved me wrong to this point. On the flip side, though, I picked Villanova to cut down the nets in April and this is a team that appears to be getting stronger with each passing game. Look for Jay Wright's squad to turn in another fine performance on Sunday afternoon as the Wildcats dance their way into the Final Four in convincing fashion. Take Villanova (10*). |
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03-24-18 | Florida State v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 54-58 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Florida State at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with Big Blue on Saturday night. I had Michigan as a Final Four team at the outset of this tournament and I'm not about to change my opinion now. I believe the Wolverines catch a favorable draw here thanks to the Seminoles upset win on Thursday. While I do feel the Seminoles can keep pace for a while in this game, it will be Michigan's outside shooting that takes over as the 'Noles wear down in the second half. I actually had this number close to -6/-6.5 but the betting marketplace is fairly high on Florida State after the upset over Gonzaga. The Bulldogs were vulnerable. The Wolverines are not. Take Michigan (10*). |
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03-23-18 | Texas Tech v. Purdue -1.5 | 78-65 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Texas Tech at 9:55 pm et on Friday. Texas Tech needed everything it had to get through the opening weekend of this tournament, facing stiff challenges from both Stephen F. Austin and Florida. Now the Red Raiders will step up in class against Purdue, and I believe this will prove to be the end of the line. The Boilermakers faced some adversity at the start of this tournament, losing their starting center, a big part of what they do at both ends of the floor. But they persevered in the opening two rounds, including a victory over a game Butler squad last time out. Now the Boilers' catch a favorable draw against Texas Tech and we're being asked to lay a very reasonable number. Take Purdue (10*). |
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03-23-18 | West Virginia v. Villanova -4.5 | 78-90 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Villanova minus the points over West Virginia at 7:25 pm et on Friday. I picked Villanova to win it all prior to the start of this tournament and I stand by that pick as we work through the Sweet 16. This is undoubtedly a tough matchup for the Wildcats but I also believe the Mountaineers will draw the right level of motivation and focus out of Jay Wright's squad. This is actually the type of game the Wildcats probably need after cruising past Radford and Alabama. Meanwhile, I felt that West Virginia overachieved in blowout wins over Murray State and Marshall. Look for Villanova to impose its will as this game wears on. Take Villanova (10*). |
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03-22-18 | Kansas State v. Kentucky -5 | 61-58 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kentucky minus the points over Kansas State at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. Kansas State has had a fortunate draw to reach the Sweet 16, first facing a Creighton squad that has fallen off in recent years, and then UMBC, a 16-seed that shocked the nation with a win over Virginia in the opening round. Now things get tough on the Wildcats as they face John Calipari's Kentucky squad, which has seemingly been flying under the radar to this point, but looks well-positioned to continue its run toward the Final Four. As usual, the Wildcats of Kentucky are a young team, loaded with blue chip NBA prospects. But unlike recent Kentucky teams, this one seems to play with a bit more of an edge, and with a lot more grit. Kansas State isn't an 'easy out' by any means, but I'm confident we'll see UK put its stamp on this game in the second half and ultimately pull away for a comfortable victory. Take Kentucky (10*). |
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