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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-10-22 | Houston v. Texas Tech -3 | Top | 30-33 | Push | 0 | 101 h 27 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over Houston at 4 pm et on Saturday. While Houston enters this game nationally-ranked I believe Texas Tech being installed as the favorite is warranted. The Cougars barely pulled out a 37-35 win over Texas-San Antonio last Saturday. While the Roadrunners were going to be a formidable opponent regardless, there was reason for concern around Houston coming out of that contest. The Cougars didn't reach the end zone until the second quarter and then proceeded to allow three consecutive UTSA touchdowns to fall behind 21-7 entering the fourth quarter. While they did ultimately wake up and rally, they also allowed UTSA to march down the field in just 20 seconds and kick a game-tying field goal in the closing seconds of the fourth quarter. It was a shaky performance all around from Houston. Texas Tech on the other hand looked like a well-oiled machine in a 63-10 rout of FCS squad Murray State. The Red Raiders did lose QB Tyler Shough to a shoulder injury in the victory but backup Donovan Smith stepped in and completed 14-of-17 passes for 221 yards and four touchdowns in relief. He saw plenty of playing time during his freshman season last year and I'm confident the offense will keep rolling along with Shough sidelined. Even with third-string QB Behren Morton in the game in the fourth quarter last Saturday, the Red Raiders were still able to tack on another touchdown. Texas Tech defeated Houston 38-21 in last year's meeting at AT&T Stadium. As much as Houston would like to exact its revenge here, I believe it will be hard-pressed to do so. Take Texas Tech (10*). |
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09-10-22 | Colorado v. Air Force -17 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 103 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Air Force minus the points over Colorado at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for Air Force as it looks to improve to 2-0 on the season after last week's 48-17 rout of FCS squad Northern Iowa. The Falcons offense appeared to be in midseason form in that contest, scoring six touchdowns and racking up just shy of 700 yards of total offense. Colorado's defense actually held up as well as could have been expected, at least through the first three quarters, but still lost by a 38-13 score against TCU last Saturday, at home no less. Concerning was the fact that the Buffaloes had no response to TCU's halftime adjustments on offense, allowing four second half touchdowns, including three in an eight-minute span when the game was on the line in the fourth quarter. Offensively, Colorado didn't come up with a touchdown until the game was completely out of hand (the Horned Frogs led 38-6 at the time) in the game's final two minutes. Air Force's Week 1 victory could have been even more lopsided were it not for it allowing two late scores in the fourth quarter. I think that lack of focus on the defensive side of the football late actually helps our cause here and the Falcons know they'll have to display more of a killer instinct against a tougher opponent than they faced last week. These two teams last met in 2019 with Air Force prevailing by a 30-23 score. The talent gap has widened since in my opinion. While the Falcons do lose plenty of key pieces from last year's team, particularly on defense, I'm not convinced Colorado has the offense, which still lacks a true leader at quarterback, to take advantage. Take Air Force (9*). |
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09-10-22 | Washington State +17.5 v. Wisconsin | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 79 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Wisconsin at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. It's time to start giving Wazzou the respect it deserves. The Cougars have gone Bowling in six of the last seven seasons. They're a profitable 33-22 ATS the last 55 times they've checked in as an underdog priced between +10.5 and +21, as is the case here. While last week's narrow 24-17 victory over Idaho was unimpressive, I'm willing to give the Cougars a mulligan as they're working in a new offense with a number of new pieces. There were positives to take away. The ground game got rolling with former Wisconsin RB Nakia Watson gaining 117 yards on just 18 carries while also hauling in a couple of catches for 17 yards. Once QB Cam Ward settled in, he threw for three touchdowns over the game's final three quarters. There was a stretch where Washington State scored on three consecutive drives. Three lost fumbles contributed to the low-scoring result but that can be cleaned up. It's the Cougars defense that has the potential to be special this year in my opinion. While it came against lowly Idaho, Washington State did rack up seven sacks to go along with a pair of interceptions in last week's victory. The secondary might be the weak spot early on but does Wisconsin have the type of offense to take advantage? The Badgers rolled to a 38-0 rout of FCS squad Illinois State in their season-opener. Note that the offense didn't reach the end zone until early in the second quarter in that contest (Wisconsin did score on a pick-six late in the first quarter). As usual, QB Graham Mertz was little more than a game manager with RB Braelon Allen doing much of the heavy lifting, running for 148 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries (96 of those yards came on one touchdown run). While I'm not about to call for an outright upset, I do think the Cougars will be a 'tough out' on Saturday afternoon in Madison. Take Washington State (8*). |
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09-09-22 | Louisville v. Central Florida -6 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 52 m | Show |
My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Louisville at 7:30 pm et on Friday. While it garnered little attention leading up to last week's season-opener, UCF looks like the real deal here in 2022. The Knights kicked off their campaign with a resounding 56-10 win over FCS squad South Carolina State. While the opposition in that game left a lot to be desired there was still a lot to like about the Knights performance. It took them less than a quarter to jump ahead by three touchdowns and while the offense was humming, I was equally impressed by the defense. UCF held South Carolina State out of the end zone until nearly midway through the third quarter and didn't yield another score after that. Now comes an admittedly tougher matchup against Louisville on Friday night at the Bounce House. The Cardinals are coming off a demoralizing season-opening loss at Syracuse and while it's extremely early you can't help but feel head coach Scott Satterfield's days as sideline chief could be numbered. Louisville couldn't muster any sort of offensive attack in that loss, scoring a touchdown with just over a minute remaining in the first quarter but then not coming up with a single score the rest of the way. I also didn't like the way the defense folded in the fourth quarter, allowing a pair of touchdowns when the game was still in reach. Noting that Louisville took last year's meeting between these two teams in Kentucky, I look for the revenge-minded Knights to get some payback here. Take Central Florida (10*). |
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09-08-22 | Sheriff +0.5 v. Omonia Nicosia | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sheriff Tiraspol +0.5 goals over Omonia Nicosia at 3 pm et on Thursday. I expect goals to come at a premium in this match (as indicated by the low posted total), for a couple of different reasons. The trends support such a call as Omonia Nicosia has seen seven of its last eight contests feature two goals or less while it's the same story for Sheriff Tiraspol in five of its last six matches. But more than that, these two teams will be desperate to come away with at least a point given the difficult nature of this group, which also features Manchester United and Real Sociedad. Neither team can afford to come away empty-handed here so I can't help but feel a draw is in the best interest of both. Also note that Sheriff enters this match having gone undefeated across its last six matches. While Omonia does have the benefit of playing this one at home, I'm not sure its enough to warrant the favorite tag. Take Sheriff Tiraspol +0.5 goals (8*). |
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09-07-22 | Liverpool v. Napoli +0.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
Champions League Game of the Month. My selection is on Napoli +0.5 goals over Liverpool at 3 pm et on Wednesday. We're being offered excellent value with Napoli catching half a goal in the first leg of this Champions League matchup on Wednesday. Keep in mind, this match will take place in Naples, where Napoli took down Liverpool on two previous occasions in Champions League action in 2018 and 2019. Napoli enters Wednesday's match riding an incredible 16-match undefeated streak. Also note that Liverpool has conceded first in five of its last seven matches overall. Give me the younger Italian side with a chip on its shoulder as an underdog on its home pitch on Wednesday. Take Napoli +0.5 goals (10*). |
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09-07-22 | Bayer Leverkusen v. Club Brugge KV +0.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Club Brugge +0.5 goals over Bayer Leverkusen at 3 pm et on Wednesday. There's not a lot to choose between these two sides but it is worth noting that Club Brugge has gone undefeated across its last five matches, winning four in a row entering Wednesday's clash with Bayer Leverkusen. I like the aggressiveness we've seen from Club Brugge early in recent matches as it has found the back of the net first in eight of its last 10 contests. Leverkusen has played a fairly wide-open style with six of its last seven matches reaching more than 2.5 total goals. Both teams are young and relatively inexperienced in Champions League play but Leverkusen is actually slightly younger with an average age just slightly over 25 years. I'm not convinced the German side is ever able to put this one away in Belgium. Take Club Brugge +0.5 goals (8*). |
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09-03-22 | Memphis v. Mississippi State -16.5 | 23-49 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Mississippi State minus the points over Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I see Mississippi State as a program on the way up in the SEC, but one that isn't being talked about nearly enough. This is a very manageable opening week matchup against a Memphis squad that needs to replace too many key parts on both sides of the football. Yes, Memphis will have Seth Henigan back at QB but you don't get better replacing the likes of WR Calvin Austin and TE Sean Dykes. The Tigers offense will likely be fine but it's going to take some time to ramp up and this is a nightmarish Week 1 road tilt. Mississippi State returns the bulk of the talent that led to a promising season on defense a year ago. The potential is there for this group to be even better in 2022. Of course, the Bulldogs offense is the real star of the show with Mike Leach getting this unit up to speed under the guidance of QB Will Rogers - who I consider to be one of the more underrated passers in the nation. The ground game may not be all that explosive but the potential is there to be better working behind an offensive line that returns the interior. I expect that o-line to bully a relatively green defensive front. Take Mississippi State (8*). |
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09-03-22 | Army +2 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Week. My selection is on Army plus the points over Coastal Carolina at 7 pm et on Saturday. It was a tremendous run for Coastal Carolina, going an incredible 14-2 over the last two seasons. Prior to that we saw three consecutive 2-6 campaigns from the Chanticleers as they made the adjustment to life in FBS. While they're unlikely to return to those depths again, there's simply too much turnover to instill much confidence entering the 2022 campaign. I see this as a tough opening week matchup against an experienced Army squad that will continue its ascension this year. The Black Knights are no doubt still stinging from last December's loss to Navy but they responded with a huge Bowl victory over Missouri and now draw an opponent that will certainly have their full attention to start this season. Army returns the majority of the offense that rolled through the opposition last year but I believe the defense could be the key. The Black Knights got torched through the air in 2021 but now the seondary returns a ton of experience and the performance of that unit could be the difference-maker between a good and a great 2022 season. The good news here is that Coastal Carolina is working in some new pieces at wide receiver after losing a ton of talent from last year's offense. While the experience at quarterback helps the Chanticleers cause with Grayson McCall back in the fold, his supporting cast might take some time to come around. Coastal Carolina is forced to make wholesales changes to its linebacking corps this season and that hurts in a matchup like this. Look for Army's triple-option to get rolling and ultimately help the Black Knights pull away for a key road victory to open the season. Take Army (10*). |
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08-31-22 | Rockies v. Braves -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday. We’ll continue to fade Rockies starter Ryan Feltner, despite the fact that the Rockies have managed to split his last four outings. Feltner checks in with a 4.92 FIP and 1.42 WHIP while allowing 6.16 runs per nine innings on the season. His counterpart on Wednesday will be Kyle Wright, who I consider to be one of the most underrated starters in baseball this year. Wright owns a 3.56 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while holding the opposition to just 3.17 runs per nine innings. The bullpen matchup goes to the Braves in this one as well as their relief corps has been terrific at home this season while the Rockies ‘pen has been a disaster (as usual) on the road. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). |
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08-31-22 | Cardinals -1.5 v. Reds | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. We’ll back the Cardinals on Wednesday as they hand the ball to Jose Quintana against Mike Minor of the Reds. Quintana has enjoyed a ‘turn back the clock’ type of season, posting a 3.28 FIP and 1.32 WHIP while allowing just shy of 4.0 runs per nine innings. It’s been a much different story for Minor as he has labored through the 2022 campaign, recording a 5.89 FIP and 1.54 WHIP while getting tagged for 6.55 runs per nine frames. As far as recent form goes, the bullpen matchup is fairly even. With that being said, the Cards certainly have the superior stable of relief arms and I’m confident they can put this one away. Take St. Louis -1.5 runs (8*). |
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08-31-22 | Pirates v. Brewers -1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Brewers own a considerable starting pitching edge in this matchup. Pirates starter Zach Thompson has been awful this season, logging a 5.33 FIP and 1.54 WHIP while allowing 5.85 runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta has battled through injuries and as a result has only pitched 63 1/3 innings for the Brewers, but he’s fared well when he’s been out there, posting a 2.97 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while yielding only 3.69 runs per nine frames. The Pirates actually have the stronger bullpen, in terms of recent form anyway, so there’s no real edge for the Brew Crew in the later innings. We’ll back them in the first five innings only as a result. Take Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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08-30-22 | Royals +1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City +0.5 runs first five innings over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. You could certainly make the argument that the Royals are the superior team in this matchup based on recent form. It's not an argument at all as to who the better starting pitcher is in this matchup, at least this season, as Brady Singer has been a pleasant surprise for Kansas City while Lucas Giolito has fallen flat on his face for the White Sox. Singer enters this start sporting a 3.55 FIP and 1.11 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.3 runs per nine innings this season. He just faced the White Sox on August 9th, giving up only one earned run over 7 1/3 innings of work. For his career, he has posted a 3.05 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in seven outings against Chicago. We'll back the Royals in the first five innings only here as their bullpen continues to struggle and is quite simply among the worst in the league in most categories. Lucas Giolito owns a 4.09 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while yielding north of 5.4 runs per nine innings for the White Sox this season. While he is coming off one of his best outings of the season, that's not saying much as he gave up one earned run on four hits while striking out only three and walking two in 6 1/3 innings against the Orioles last time out. In two previous starts against Kansas City this season, Giolito has allowed four earned runs in 10 innings. Take Kansas City +0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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08-30-22 | Rockies v. Braves -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -159 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. With the Braves coming off consecutive losses and favorites getting roasted across the board last night, I can understand the hesitancy to back Atlanta here. I won't shy away, however, as the Braves have a considerable starting pitching edge that should contribute to a comfortable, bounce-back victory. Jose Urena will get the start for the visiting Rockies. To say that his 2022 campaign hasn't gone well would be an understatement. Urena checks in with a 5.65 FIP and 1.67 WHIP while allowing 6.9 runs per nine innings. The Braves actually got two looks at Urena two seasons ago, plating seven earned runs in only 11 innings. Atlanta will turn to its ace, Max Fried, on Tuesday. He's posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season, a 2.55 FIP and 1.02 WHIP while giving up only 2.7 runs per nine innings. Note that he faced the Rockies once previously this year and went eight shutout innings, on the road no less. While the Braves bullpen has struggled a bit lately, a return home should help matters, noting that Atlanta's relief corps owns a collective 3.35 ERA and 1.18 WHIP here at Truist Park this season. Meanwhile, the Rockies 'pen checks in with a 5.41 ERA and 1.59 WHIP away from home. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). |
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08-29-22 | Cardinals -1.5 v. Reds | 13-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. We settled for a push with the Cardinals in the first five innings against Atlanta last night. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well, this time laying the half-run as St. Louis travels to Cincinnati to open a series against the Reds. Miles Mikolas will be looking for revenge after struggling in his most recent start against Cincinnati. On the season, he's been terrific, posting a 3.72 FIP and 1.02 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.7 runs per nine innings. My concern with the Cardinals is their bullpen as it entered last night's action sporting a collective ERA north of six and a WHIP approaching 1.50 over the last seven games. The Reds 'pen had recorded a 3.04 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over the same stretch. Cincinnati will give newly-signed Chase Anderson the start on Monday. He's struggled in the minors with Tigers and Rays affiliates, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP while allowing 1.8 home runs per nine innings. Keep in mind, in 48 innings with the Phillies last season, Anderson posted a 5.86 FIP and 1.48 WHIP. He draws a tough matchup in the hot-hitting Cardinals on Monday. Take St. Louis -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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08-28-22 | Orioles v. Astros -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Astros have inexplicably dropped the first two games of this series but I look for them to answer back, at least early on in Sunday's series-finale. We'll back them in the first five innings only as they have a considerable starting pitching advantage but there's not much of a disparity between the two bullpens, so no real edge in the later innings. Austin Voth will get the start for Baltimore. He checks in having posted a 4.04 FIP and 1.44 WHIP while allowing 5.1 runs per nine innings. Note that he's lasted six innings just once in his 11 starts this season. Houston will counter with its ace, Justin Verlander. He sports a 2.77 FIP and 0.85 WHIP while allowing only 2.36 runs per nine innings. Verlander barely broke a sweat in his most recent outing, tossing six innings of no-hit ball against the Twins. Take Houston -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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08-28-22 | Angels v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
A.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The Blue Jays have been blanked in the first two games of this series bringing an end to what was a terrific run over the previous week. Here, I do look for Toronto to salvage the series-finale, and do so in convincing fashion. Tucker Davidson will get another turn in the rotation for the Angels. Things haven't gone particularly well for him this season as he sports a 5.63 FIP and 1.75 WHIP while allowing 6.23 runs per nine innings. He's not really fooling any opposing hitters, having topped out at three strikeouts in his six previous starts this season. Ross Stripling will counter for Toronto. He's been their most reliable starter this season, entering Sunday's start with a 2.80 FIP and 1.04 WHIP while allowing only 3.22 runs per nine innings. The Jays have been bitten by the long ball in this series but Stripling has done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park, yielding just 0.6 home runs per nine innings. The bullpens are virtually a wash based on recent form. I feel Toronto has enough of a starting pitching edge to warrant backing them on the run-line here. Take Toronto -1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-26-22 | Hamilton +2.5 v. Toronto | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
East Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Hamilton plus the points over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. These two teams have split a pair of meetings this season with both successfully defending their home field. Here, I look for a reversal of sorts as the Ti-Cats look to take a step toward taking control of the lowly East Division with a key road victory. Hamilton's offense has shown flashes of brilliance to be sure. The Tiger-Cats ground attack has led the way at times but last week they threw for over 300 yards for the second time in three games. All indications are that QB Dane Evans will be good to go for this one and I expect him to step in and perform well against an Argos defense that has been inconsistent at best. Note that teams that have chosen to run on the Argos have been successful, including the Ti-Cats, who gained 149 yards on just 21 attempts against them just two games back. Offensively, it seems as if Toronto has gone off a cliff. Yes, the Argos scored 34 points in a win over these same Ti-Cats earlier this month but that had more to do with Hamilton's inability to keep its offense on the field than anything else. Note that the Argos have gained fewer than 70 yards rushing in four straight games and now face a Ti-Cats squad that hasn't yielded more than 90 yards rushing since way back in Week 1. I get the feeling that Hamilton's defense will make life miserable on Argos QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson after getting torched for 382 yards through the air against Montreal last week. Hamilton has still held all seven opponents to 25 or fewer pass completions this season. Toronto needed a whopping 43 pass attempts to get to just 276 passing yards against Calgary last week. Here, we'll note that the Ti-Cats are a perfect 6-0 ATS when coming off two losses in their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 11.1 points on average in that situation. Take Hamilton (10*). |
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08-26-22 | Rockies v. Mets -1.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Mets will once again have a significant edge on the mound on Friday as they send Chris Bassitt against Chad Kuhl, who makes his return from the I.L. for the Rockies. Bassitt enters with a 3.53 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while holding opponents to just shy of 3.4 runs per nine innings. Over his last four starts, Bassitt has yielded only two earned runs in 26 innings of work. Behind Bassitt is a Mets bullpen that came into this series sporting a 2.46 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over the last seven games. Kuhl gave up four walks and three hits over five innings (while striking out six) in a minor league rehab stint. In the bigs this season he has recorded a 5.22 FIP and 1.52 WHIP while giving up 5.5 runs per nine innings. The Rockies bullpen continues to struggle, logging a 6.30 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the last seven contests (entering this series). Take New York -1.5 runs (8*). |
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08-25-22 | Rockies v. Mets -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. This is a mismatch from all angles as the Mets send Jacob deGrom to the hill against Ryan Feltner of the Rockies. deGrom has had electric stuff since returning to the Mets starting rotation, posting a 0.63 FIP and 0.51 WHIP in four starts, spanning 23 1/3 innings of work. He’s giving up just north of 2.3 runs per nine innings. Behind deGrom is a Mets bullpen that has been in fine form recently, recording a collective 2.46 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over the last seven games. Feltner has had plenty of ups and downs for the Rockies this season, with more downs than ups. He sports a 4.79 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while yielding just shy of 6.2 runs per nine frames. The Rockies bullpen is among the worst in the league seemingly every year and 2022 has been no different. The Colorado relief corps checks in with a collective 5.92 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven contests, entering yesterday’s action. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*). |
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08-25-22 | Reds v. Phillies -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I’ll gladly back the Phillies laying the half-run in the first five innings only on Thursday as they send Aaron Nola to the mound against Justin Dunn of the Reds. Dunn has yet to figure it out at the big league level, recording an 8.52 FIP and 1.73 WHIP in limited action (13 1/3 innings) with the Reds this season. This is his fourth big league season after spending three years with the Mariners and his career FIP and WHIP are 5.94 and 1.40, respectively. It’s a different story for Phillies starter Aaron Nola, who is often overshadowed by Zack Wheeler at the top of the rotation. Nola has posted a 2.76 FIP and 0.96 WHIP this season, yielding just 3.31 runs per nine innings. We’ll avoid backing the Phillies in the full game as their bullpen continues to struggle, entering yesterday’s action sporting a collective 5.64 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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08-24-22 | Nationals v. Mariners -1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle -0.5 runs first five innings over Washington at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. The early stages of this game should be no contest based on the Mariners starting pitching advantage with impressive rookie George Kirby taking the ball against veteran Anibal Sanchez of the Nationals. Kirby has posted a 3.38 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.9 runs per nine innings for the Mariners this season. The reason we’ll back the Mariners in the first five innings only here is their considerable starting pitching advantage, whereas the Nats bullpen has been terrific lately and could hold its own late. Sanchez is having a brutal campaign, recording a 7.17 FIP and 1.46 WHIP while yielding just under 6.7 runs per nine innings. He's allowing a whopping 2.8 home runs per nine innings. Take Seattle -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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08-24-22 | Giants v. Tigers +1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings over San Francisco at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. This starting pitching matchup is closer to even than most bettors likely believe as the Giants hand the ball to Logan Webb against Matt Manning of the Tigers. With Detroit’s bullpen struggling, we’ll back it in the first five innings only here. Webb owns a 3.28 FIP and 1.18 WHIP while allowing 3.43 runs per nine innings this season. His counterpart, Matt Manning, checks in with a 3.74 FIP and 1.16 WHIP while giving up just 2.81 runs per nine innings, albeit with a smaller sample size. I will point out that Manning has posted a sub-3.00 ERA at the AAA level this season. Note that the Giants average just 4.3 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching this season (entering last night’s action) compared to their season scoring average of 4.5 rpg. Take Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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08-23-22 | Twins v. Astros -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -0.5 runs first five innings over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Twins inexplicably dropped three games in a row against the Rangers over the last three days and now face the unenviable task of heading to Houston to face Justin Verlander and the Astros on Tuesday. Aaron Sanchez will get the start for the visiting Twins. He was effective in his lone outing since joining Minnesota, that coming back on August 1st against the light-hitting Tigers. Note that in a minor league stint with the Twins AAA affiliate, St. Paul, Sanchez recorded an unimpressive 3.80 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, striking out just over 6.0 batters per nine innings. In the majors this year, Sanchez owns a 4.93 FIP and 1.68 WHIP while allowing a whopping 7.93 runs per nine innings. Verlander hasn't had his best stuff over his last two outings but he certainly wasn't awful, yielding six earned runs in 13 innings. Note that he'll be starting on six days' rest on Tuesday which should be beneficial considering he's logged 143 innings this season. Verlander owns a 2.88 FIP and 0.88 WHIP on the season, allowing just 2.45 runs per nine innings. We'll lay the half-run with the Astros in the first five innings only here as their bullpen has been awful lately, posting a collective 7.16 ERA and 2.14 WHIP over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Twins 'pen owns a 1.95 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over that stretch. Take Houston -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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08-23-22 | Reds v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We actually missed with the Phillies in this same starting pitching matchup last week in Cincinnati but I won't hesitate to go back to the well again here, albeit backing Philadelphia laying a half-run in the first five innings only this time around. Nick Lodolo will look to build off of his seven shutout innings he tossed against the Phillies last time out. That start came at home. The road hasn't been so kind to the rookie left-hander as he checks in with an 8.48 ERA and 2.06 WHIP in three outings away from home this season. On the campaign, Lodolo owns a pedestrian 4.12 FIP and 1.57 WHIP while giving up 4.45 runs per nine innings. Ranger Suarez is having another fine season for the Phillies. He sports a 3.68 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while allowing 3.86 runs per nine innings. Note that the Reds average 4.1 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season (compared to their season scoring average of 4.3 rpg) and just 3.6 runs per game on the road, entering last night's action. We'll play the first five innings only as the Phillies bullpen has admittedly struggled lately, entering this series with a 5.72 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over the last seven games. Contrast that with the Reds 'pen which posted a collective 2.49 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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08-23-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Pirates | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Braves as they send their ace Max Fried to the hill against JT Brubaker of the Pirates. Fried is having a Cy Young Award-caliber season having posted a 2.49 FIP and 1.05 WHIP while allowing just 2.79 runs per nine innings. He can get a leg up on another leading Cy Young candidate in Max Scherzer after the Mets right-hander suffered a loss against the Yankees last night. Interestingly, Fried has opposed Brubaker twice before in his career, including earlier this season, with the Braves winning both of those games by a combined 10-2 margin. Brubaker checks in with a 3.67 FIP and 1.43 WHIP on the campaign. He has allowed just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings. Note that Brubaker gives up 1.5 more hits, 0.5 more home runs and 1.9 more walks per nine innings compared to Fried this season. The bullpens are 'no contest' based on recent form as the Atlanta 'pen has posted a collective 2.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over the last seven games while the Pittsburgh relief corps has recorded a 6.59 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the same stretch, entering last night's action. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). |
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08-20-22 | Royals v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 115 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Rays off last night's tough extra innings loss. Kris Bubic will take the ball for Kansas City. He checks in sporting a 4.62 FIP and 1.60 WHIP while allowing just shy of 5.8 runs per nine innings. The Rays will be seeing the left-hander for the second time this season and I expect them to improve on the numbers they posted back in late July (two earned runs in seven innings). The Kansas City bullpen has posted a 5.64 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last seven contests. Drew Rasmussen will counter for Tampa Bay. We won with the Rays in his most recent start and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. Rasmussen owns a 3.36 FIP and 1.08 WHIP this season, yielding just 3.25 runs per nine innings. The Rays bullpen, despite coughing up last night's game in extras, has posted a solid 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-19-22 | Mariners v. A's +1.5 | 10-2 | Loss | -150 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland +1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Friday. We can make the case that the bullpens are a wash based on recent form and with that in mind, I’m comfortable backing the A’s with an insurance run as they open this divisional showdown against the Mariners on Friday. Marco Gonzales will get the nod for Seattle. He owns a 5.10 FIP and 1.41 WHIP while giving up just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings this season. The A’s will be seeing him for the fourth time this season having racked up nine earned runs in 18 1/3 innings so far. Cole Irvin gets the start for the A’s. He’s turned it around lately, lowering his FIP to 3.91 and WHIP to 1.05 while yielding only 3.41 runs per nine innings. Interestingly, Irvin will be making his first start against the Mariners this season. He’s actually struggled in his career against Seattle but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here, noting that he has posted a 1.66 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 11 home starts this season. Take Oakland +1.5 runs (8*). |
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08-19-22 | Nationals v. Padres -1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego -0.5 runs first five innings over Washington at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Padres dropped the opener of this series 3-1 last night, turning in a lifeless performance in their first game back home off a road trip. We missed with San Diego on the run-line in that game but will come right back with it on Friday, laying the half-run in the first five innings only. San Diego's bullpen has been disappointing as a whole this season and after last night's game, the case can be made for the Nationals 'pen inexplicably being in better current form. Here, we'll get behind Padres starter Blake Snell who has turned things around, lowering his FIP to 2.85 and his WHIP to 1.27. Walks are always going to be an issue but Snell has done a good job of minimizing the damage by allowing just 0.7 home runs and striking out 12.0 batters per nine innings. The Nats have had a tough time against left-handed starting pitching this season, going 11-29 and averaging only 3.6 runs per game, compared to their season scoring average of 3.8 runs per contest. Paolo Espino will counter for Washington. Unlike Snell, he's had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings. He sports a 4.80 FIP and 1.29 WHIP on the campaign. Also note that he gives up 2.7 more hits per nine innings compared to Snell. Take San Diego -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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08-18-22 | Nationals v. Padres -1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -165 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Washington at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. I like betting on good starting pitchers to bounce back from poor outings and that's precisely what we'll do with Padres starter Yu Darvish on Thursday. Darvish has actually been on the mound for losses in each of his last two starts with the most recent coming against the same Nationals club he'll face on Thursday. He certainly didn't have his best stuff against the Nats last time out but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here, noting he owns a 3.36 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing only 3.4 runs per nine innings this season. Darvish has been at his best at home, posting a 2.17 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 10 starts. Washington will hand the ball to journeyman starter Anibal Sanchez on Thursday. He actually opposed Darvish in that 4-3 Nats victory last week. Let's not get too excited though as Sanchez still owns an ugly 7.48 FIP and 1.60 WHIP while yielding 7.5 runs per nine innings in 30 innings of work this season. The Nats bullpen has been awful on the road this season, recording a collective 5.56 ERA and 1.49 WHIP while converting 12 saves and blowing seven. The Padres 'pen has gone through a rough stretch recently but seems to be working its way out of it having entered yesterday's game with a collective 3.86 ERA over the last seven games before tossing 4 2/3 shutout innings against the Marlins. Here at home this season, the San Diego 'pen owns a 3.29 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 14 saves converted and seven blown. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (8*). |
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08-16-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Giants | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona +1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. This one falls just on the edge of our play range in terms of price. With that being said, a strong case can certainly be made for the D'Backs to be favored in this game and I think we're fortunate to have the opportunity to grab an insurance run (which we often like to have when backing Arizona - note that nine of its last 16 losses have come by a single run). Merill Kelly gets the start for the D'Backs on Tuesday. He's actually been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball for an extended stretch this season. Kelly sports a 3.16 FIP and 1.14 WHIP while allowing just 3.08 runs per nine innings. The Giants will give the ball to Jake Junis. It's been a mixed bag for him since returning from injury last month. Junis owns a 3.63 FIP and 1.20 WHIP while giving up just shy of 3.8 runs per nine innings this season. Note that he allows 1.0 more hit and 0.5 more home runs per nine innings compared to Kelly. Entering last night's action, the D'Backs bullpen had recorded a collective 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last seven games while the Giants 'pen continued to struggled, posting a 5.66 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over that same stretch. Take Arizona +1.5 runs (8*). |
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08-16-22 | A's +1.5 v. Rangers | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland +1.5 runs over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. With the bullpens virtually a wash in this matchup and the A's holding what I consider to be a significant starting pitching advantage, we'll back the visitors with an insurance run here. JP Sears was a key piece coming over to the A's from the Yankees in the Frankie Montas trade. He didn't disappoint in his A's debut last week, allowing just two earned runs over 5 1/3 innings of work against the Angels. In 27 1/3 big league innings pitched this season, Sears has posted a 2.93 FIP and 0.81 WHIP while allowing just 2.3 runs per nine innings. The Rangers will send Kohei Arihara to the mound for his first start of the season. He's struggled to the tune of a 4.88 ERA and 1.32 WHIP at the AAA level this season and that's after recording an ugly 6.76 FIP and 1.43 WHIP while yielding just shy of 6.9 runs per nine innings with the Rangers last season. Take Oakland +1.5 runs (8*). |
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08-16-22 | Mets +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -154 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on New York +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Braves in the first five innings in the opener of this series last night but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Mets on the run-line on Tuesday. New York will hand the ball to Taijuan Walker, who will be out for revenge after giving up a whopping eight earned runs over just one inning against these same Braves two starts back. He bounced back nicely with a quality outing against the Reds last time out and I'm confident he can do a much better job against Atlanta this time around. Note that the last time he pitched here at Truist Park, he guided New York to a 3-1 victory last season. Walker enters this outing sporting a 3.61 FIP and 1.20 WHIP this season, yielding only 3.51 runs per nine innings. Entering last night's contest, the Mets bullpen hadn't allowed a single earned run over its last seven games, posting a 0.92 WHIP over that stretch. New York's relief corps owns a collective 3.72 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while converting 16 saves and blowing only six on the road this season (also entering last night's action). Charlie Morton will counter for Atlanta. He checks in with a 4.14 FIP and 1.21 WHIP, allowing 4.4 runs per nine innings this season. The Mets will be getting their third look at Morton this season having already plated nine earned runs in 10 2/3 innings in their previous two games against him. Atlanta's bullpen has been terrific lately but has blown 11 saves (while converting 18) at home this season. Also note that the Braves relief corps has been a little more overworked than the Mets' lately, logging 27 1/3 innings over the last seven games, while New York's 'pen has been pressed into duty for less than 20 innings over the same stretch (entering this series). Take New York +1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-13-22 | Saskatchewan v. Edmonton Elks +5.5 | Top | 34-23 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
CFL West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over Saskatchewan at 10 pm et on Saturday. This will be a rematch of a Week 1 clash between these two teams that saw Saskatchewan prevail by a 26-16 score. The Elks certainly weren't without their opportunities in that game as they were afforded 36 pass attempts in the loss. That's been a common theme for the Riders as they've struggled mightily to contain opposing passing games, yielding 33, 37, 38 and 33 pass attempts over their last four games with those four opponents completing 21, 26, 30 and 20 passes. Meanwhile, the Riders offense has seemingly gotten worse with each passing week, going from 24 to 21 to 17 points over their last three games. While on paper, the Elks defense should offer a reprieve, I'm not convinced it will play out that way on the field. It's worth noting that Edmonton is as healthy as any team in the league right now. The Elks are just one game removed from holding Winnipeg to just 274 total yards (including 7-of-16 passing). They'll be out for revenge here and it's worth noting that prior to that first meeting between the teams this season, last year's two matchups were settled by just two and five points. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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08-13-22 | Twins v. Angels +1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Twins snapped a three-game skid, taking the opener of this series with relative ease last night. I look for the Angels to give them all they can handle on Saturday, however. Dylan Bundy will take the ball for Minnesota. He's struggled lately and let's face it, he's struggled for the majority of his big league career. Bundy checks in with a 4.30 FIP and 1.30 WHIP this season, allowing just north of 5.2 runs per nine innings. Also note that the Twins bullpen entered this series sporting a collective 5.72 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over the last seven games, having converted just eight saves while also blowing eight on the road this season. Reid Detmers will counter for Los Angeles. He owns a 4.24 FIP and 1.05 WHIP while holding the opposition to only 3.54 runs per nine innings this season. Note that the Twins are just 17-15 against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 4.2 runs per game (compared to their 4.5 runs per game season scoring average). The Angels bullpen entered last night's action having posted a collective 2.42 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (8*). |
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08-13-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating a lopsided result in favor of the Dodgers on Saturday in Kansas City as they send Andrew Heaney to the hill against Brad Keller of the Royals. Heaney has been solid since returning from injury, posting a 2.34 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while holding the opposition to just 2.25 runs per nine innings this season. Behind Heaney is an elite Dodgers bullpen that brought terrific form into this series having recorded a collective 1.80 ERA and 0.72 WHIP over the last seven games. Brad Keller has endured another trying season for the Royals, recording a 4.35 FIP and 1.37 WHIP while giving up 4.9 runs per nine innings. Note that the Dodgers are 53-21 and average 5.4 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching this season. The Kansas City bullpen has struggled for much of the season and entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.57 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-13-22 | Tigers +1.5 v. White Sox | 4-6 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. We'll grab the half-run of insurance with the Tigers in the first five innings on Saturday as I do feel they have an advantage in terms of the starting pitching matchup. Matt Manning will get the start for Detroit. He's logged only 20 innings so far this season but has made the most of them, recording a 4.27 FIP and 1.10 WHIP while allowing only 2.25 runs per nine innings. Last time out he tossed seven shutout innings against the Rays but the Tigers bullpen couldn't hold up in an eventual loss. That's been the story a lot lately as the Detroit 'pen has been downright awful and we'll look to avoid that relief corps by playing the first five innings only here. Lucas Giolito has been high on our fade list all season long and we won't reverse course here. Giolito checks in with a 4.28 FIP and 1.51 WHIP, allowing 5.25 runs per nine innings. The Tigers have already seen him twice this season, winning both of those games. They most recently plated five earned runs over 6 2/3 innings against Giolito right here in Chicago back on July 8th. Take Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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08-12-22 | Pirates v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 10:15 pm et on Friday. As we still don’t trust the Giants bullpen, we’ll back them in the first five innings only on Friday as they have a considerable starting pitching edge with All-Star Carlos Rodon taking the hill against Bryse Wilson of the Pirates. Rodon enters Friday’s start sporting a terrific 2.28 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while allowing only 3.02 runs per nine innings this season. He absolutely baffled the Pirates in a start against them earlier this season, tossing eight shutout innings of two-hit ball. Bryse Wilson is one of the weakest links in the Pirates rotation and that’s saying something. He has recorded a 5.06 FIP and 1.52 WHIP this season, yielding a whopping 6.82 runs per nine innings. There’s no real advantage for the Giants in the later innings of this one as their bullpen continues to under-achieve, having posted a collective 4.62 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last seven games, not to mention converting only 10 saves at home this season (four blown). Take San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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08-12-22 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Oakland at 8:10 pm et on Friday. There’s quite simply no comparison between these two teams which lie at opposite ends of the A.L. West spectrum this season. The A’s will hand the ball to struggling rookie Adam Oller on Friday. He checks in with a 7.15 FIP and 1.79 WHIP while allowing just north of 8.2 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Friday will be Luis Garcia of the Astros. While not an elite starter by any stretch, he’s been more than serviceable in the Astros starting rotation, posting a 4.03 FIP and 1.10 WHIP while allowing 4.33 runs per nine innings this season. Houston’s bullpen has been lights out at home all season, recording a collective 2.01 ERA and 0.94 WHIP while converting 15 saves and blowing only five (entering yesterday’s action). Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*). |
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08-12-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Royals | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. While the Royals are coming off a stunning series sweep of the division rival White Sox, I expect Friday’s result to be much more straightforward as they host the Dodgers. Los Angeles will send All-Star Tony Gonsolin to the mound for the series opener. He checks in with a 3.47 FIP and 0.89 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.38 runs per nine innings. Behind Gonsolin is a Dodgers bullpen that has posted a collective 1.80 ERA and 0.72 WHIP over the last seven games. The Royals will hand the ball to left-hander Daniel Lynch. He owns a 4.08 FIP and 1.52 WHIP while giving up just over 5.0 runs per nine innings on the campaign. The Kansas City bullpen did its best to cough up yesterday’s game against the White Sox but ultimately held on to finish the series sweep. Note that the Royals ‘pen owned a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home this season, entering yesterday’s contest. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). |
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08-12-22 | Padres -1.5 v. Nationals | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. This one sets up exceptionally well for the Padres as they head to Washington to face the lowly Nationals on Friday. Mike Clevinger will take the ball for San Diego. He’s having a fine season having posted a 3.98 FIP and 1.12 WHIP while allowing just 3.74 runs per nine innings. Behind Clevinger is a Padres bullpen that has recorded a collective 3.52 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last seven games. Cory Abbott was awful in limited work for the Cubs last season and has been equally bad in 12 2/3 innings with the Nationals this year. Abbott checks in with an 8.88 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while allowing 5.68 runs per nine innings. The Nationals bullpen has struggled for much of the campaign and has certainly had a tough time lately, posting a collective 6.29 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (8*). |
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08-10-22 | Rangers v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Texas at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Astros added to the Rangers misery with a 7-5 victory last night and I anticipate more of the same on Wednesday. Texas will hand the ball to Glenn Otto. To say he's struggled this season would be an understatement. Otto checks in with a 5.19 FIP and 1.41 WHIP while allowing north of 5.5 runs per nine innings. He's given up 2.1 more hits, 0.5 more home runs and 2.9 more walks per nine innings compared to his counterpart on this night, Astros ace Justin Verlander. Verlander is having another terrific campaign, having posted a 2.98 FIP and 0.85 WHIP while holding the opposition to just shy of 2.3 runs per nine innings. He's an A.L. Cy Young Award candidate once again to be sure. Behind Verlander is an Astros bullpen that has been lights out lately and for much of the season, particularly at home. Over the last seven games, the Astros 'pen has recorded a collective 0.48 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Take Houston -1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-10-22 | Marlins +1.5 v. Phillies | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. While we're being asked to lay a steep price to grab the insurance run with the Marlins here, the fact that we're able to get the +1.5 at all is a steal in my opinion. The case can certainly be made for the Marlins to be favored in this matchup but I will grab that insurance run as they've had a knack for finding ways to lose games lately. Sandy Alcantara will take the ball for Miami. He is of course one of the top contenders for the N.L. Cy Young Award this season having posted a 2.86 FIP and 0.94 WHIP while allowing just 2.27 runs per nine innings. After a shaky outing in Pittsburgh, Alcantara bounced back in a big way last time out, tossing a complete game shutout against the Reds (we won with the Marlins in that game). Noah Syndergaard will counter for the Phillies. He's having a fine season but certainly doesn't boast the same sort of numbers as Alcantara. The veteran right-hander sports a 3.85 FIP and 1.27 WHIP while giving up 4.24 runs per nine innings. Behind Syndergaard is a struggling Phillies bullpen that has recorded a collective 6.75 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Marlins 'pen has posted a 1.45 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Miami +1.5 runs (8*). |
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08-09-22 | Reds v. Mets -1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. While I realize the Reds don't have a wealth of starting pitching talent that's ready for the big league level right now, it's still hard to believe that they continue to trot out veteran left-hander Mike Minor every five days. To say that Minor has struggled this season would be an understatement. He checks in sporting a 6.57 FIP and 1.57 WHIP while yielding north of 6.8 runs per nine innings. We can no longer blame it on a small sample size either as he's logged 11 starts covering a span of 56 2/3 innings. The Mets will counter with Carlos Carrasco on Tuesday. He's pitched well lately, lowering his FIP to 3.44 and his WHIP to 1.28 and has given up just north of 3.8 runs per nine innings this season. Carrasco allows 1.0 fewer hits, 1.6 fewer walks and perhaps most importantly 1.6 fewer home runs per nine innings when compared to Minor this season. The reason we're laying the half-run with the Mets in the first five innings only again tonight (we won with the same play last night) is the fact that their bullpen has been unsteady lately, recording a collective 5.48 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven games. Over that same stretch, the Reds 'pen has posted a terrific 2.42 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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08-08-22 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 9:40 pm et on Monday. We have enough of a starting pitching advantage to support the D'Backs at an admittedly steep price point in the first five innings in Monday's series-opener against the Pirates. Pittsburgh will hand the ball to Tyler Beede. He's logged 41 2/3 innings this season and hasn't fared particularly well, recording a 4.36 FIP and 1.49 WHIP while giving up 4.1 runs per nine innings. In comparison with his counterpart on Monday, Zac Gallen, he has allowed 2.5 more hits and 1.5 more walks per nine innings. Gallen is having a fine season having posted a 3.68 FIP and 1.04 WHIP while allowing only 3.64 runs per nine innings. The only reason I hesitate to back the D'Backs for the full game here is the fact that the Pirates bullpen has been lights out lately, recording a collective 1.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over the last seven games. The D'Backs meanwhile have converted just 10 saves while blowing eight at home this season. Take Arizona -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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08-08-22 | Reds v. Mets -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Mets are rolling right now and there's little reason to expect the Reds to serve as anything more than a speedbump on Monday. With that being said, New York's bullpen has struggled to the tune of an ERA north of 6.00 and a 1.56 WHIP over the last seven games and I like the way the starting pitching matchup sets up so we'll back it in the first five innings only here. Cincinnati will give Justin Dunn his first big league start of the season. He's struggled at the minor league level here in 2022, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 28 innings of work. Of course, he hasn't found much success at the big league level in his career either, most recently posting a 4.74 FIP and 1.31 WHIP with the Mariners last season. Chris Bassitt will counter for New York. He was terrific in his most recent start, tossing seven shutout innings against Washington. On the season he has recorded a 3.71 FIP and 1.12 WHIP while giving up just shy of 3.7 runs per nine innings. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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08-06-22 | Giants -1.5 v. A's | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco -0.5 runs over Oakland at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. While Giants starter Carlos Rodon has struggled since the All-Star break, I’m anticipating a return to form against the A’s on Saturday. Rodon still owns a terrific 2.28 FIP and 1.07 WHIP on the season, giving up just 3.07 runs per nine innings. Here, he’ll face an A’s offense that averages only 3.2 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season. Adam Oller will take the ball for Oakland. He’s generally been awful this season, recording a 7.15 FIP and 1.73 WHIP while giving up a whopping 8.38 runs per nine innings. With the Giants bullpen struggling over an extended period (not to mention just 11 saves converted and eight blown on the road this season - entering last night’s action), we’ll look to back them in the first five innings only on Saturday. Take San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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08-06-22 | Rays -1.5 v. Tigers | 1-9 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings over Detroit at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. The Rays own a considerable starting pitching advantage in this matchup as they hand the ball to their ace Shane McClanahan against Tigers rookie Garrett Hill. With the bullpens virtually a wash, we’ll lay the half-run with Tampa Bay in the first five innings only here. McClanahan is actually coming off one of his worst outings of the season, allowing five earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings of work against Cleveland. I’m confident he’ll bounce back against the light-hitting Tigers on Saturday, noting that the left-hander owns a terrific 2.63 FIP and 0.83 WHIP while allowing only 2.43 runs per nine innings this season. Hill on the other hand has faded after a solid start, with his FIP rising to 5.65 and his WHIP to 1.35 while giving up an average of 5.88 runs per nine innings. Take Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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08-06-22 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings over Washington at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. It’s not often we give the Phillies a decisive starting pitching advantage with Ranger Suarez on the mound but we will do so tonight as the left-hander takes the ball against fellow southpaw Patrick Corbin of the Nationals. Suarez checks in with a 3.83 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while allowing 4.26 runs per nine innings this season. Not great numbers by any means but certainly superior to those of Corbin who sports an ugly 4.66 FIP and 1.77 WHIP while yielding just shy of 7.5 runs per nine innings. Note that the Nationals have gone a woeful 11-24 against left-handed starting pitching this season. Given the fact that the Phillies bullpen has been struggling, posting a collective 7.71 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action), we’ll back them in the first five innings only on Saturday. Take Philadelphia -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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08-04-22 | Winnipeg v. Montreal +6 | 35-20 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal plus the points over Winnipeg at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We might have been a week early fading the Blue Bombers last Saturday as they were entrenched in a battle with the Stampeders but ultimately came away with a seven-point victory. Here, I expect them to have their hands full with the Alouettes in Montreal. The Als check in 2-5 on the season although all but one of their losses could have gone either way. Last week they couldn't muster enough offense in a 24-17 loss to the Ti-Cats (we won with the 'under' in that game). Keep in mind, they're just one game removed from putting up 40 points in a road victory in Ottawa. While Montreal checks in as healthy as it has been all season, Winnipeg continues to deal with some nagging injuries to key players. While all indications are that the Blue Bombers key cogs will be 'full go' for this one, there's no denying it's a tough scheduling spot playing on a short week after that hard-fought battle against Calgary last Saturday. Montreal, on the other hand, has been idle since last Thursday. The Als are 3-2 ATS in an underdog role this season and defeated the Bombers by 14 points as a 3.5-point underdog in their home matchup last year. Take Montreal (8*). |
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08-04-22 | Astros -1.5 v. Guardians | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -0.5 runs first five innings over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. We'll back the Astros in the first five innings only on Thursday as their edge lies in the starting pitching matchup rather than in the later innings as the Guardians bullpen has been outstanding lately. Justin Verlander will get the start for Houston. He owns a 3.04 FIP and an even more impressive 0.87 WHIP while holding opponents to just 2.4 runs per nine innings this season. Zach Plesac, meanwhile, checks in with a 4.30 FIP and 1.29 WHIP on the campaign while giving up just north of 5.0 runs per nine frames. Take Houston -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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08-04-22 | Rockies v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -125 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Colorado at 4:10 pm et on Thursday. I'm comfortable laying the extra run with the Padres as they host the Rockies on Thursday afternoon in San Diego. Kyle Freeland will get the start for the Rockies. Interestingly, this will be his fourth start against the Padres this season and the Rockies have won each of the first three. I look for that streak to end here. Note that Freeland has posted a less than impressive 4.28 FIP and 1.34 WHIP this season while allowing north of 5.0 runs per nine innings. Behind Freeland is a Rockies bullpen that has hit the skids again, recording a collective 5.47 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over the last seven games, entering yesterday's action. Newly-signed Joe Musgrove will be looking to prove he's worth the monster contract the Padres just gave him. He's well-positioned to do just that having posted a 3.26 FIP and 0.99 WHIP while holding opponents to only 2.97 runs per nine innings this season. The Padres bullpen went through a recent rough stretch but has since turned it around again, recording a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last seven games. Here at home this season, the Padres have converted 14 saves while blowing only five (entering yesterday's action). Take San Diego -1.5 runs (10*). |
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08-04-22 | Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates | 4-5 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. |
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08-03-22 | Reds v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 117 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami -0.5 runs first five innings over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Reds have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Marlins to bounce back with their ace on the hill on Wednesday. Veteran left-hander Mike Minor gets another turn in the Reds rotation out of necessity only. He owns a 6.74 FIP and 1.58 WHIP while giving up north of 7.0 runs per nine innings this season. While the Marlins have struggled to put runs on the board against left-handed starting pitching, I'm confident they can get to Minor in this one. Sandy Alcantara hasn't necessarily had his best stuff in his last couple of outings but his overall numbers tell the story as he has recorded a 2.87 FIP and 0.94 WHIP while holding opponents to just 2.41 runs per nine innings. After dealing a pair of key bullpen arms to Toronto, I'm only interested in backing the Marlins in the first five innings in this one. We have a decisive enough edge in terms of the starting pitching matchup to lay the half-run with Miami in the first half here. Take Miami -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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08-03-22 | Mets -1.5 v. Nationals | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Washington at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Mets have a considerable starting pitching advantage in Wednesday's series finale in Washington as they hand the ball to Chris Bassitt against journeyman right-hander Anibal Sanchez of the Nationals. Bassitt is having another fine campaign having posted a 3.79 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while giving up only 3.91 runs per nine innings. He faced the Nats once back in April and tossed six shutout innings. Sanchez owns a 6.75 FIP and 1.40 WHIP while yielding a whopping 7.47 runs per nine innings. Here, he'll be starting on just four days' rest after getting tagged for six earned runs over 5 2/3 innings against the Cardinals last time out. There's no real edge in terms of the bullpens in this matchup, surprisingly enough. With that in mind, we'll lay the half-run with the Mets in the first five innings only. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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08-03-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Braves | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 12:20 pm et on Wednesday. I'll gladly grab the insurance run with the Phillies in the finale of this brief two-game series in Atlanta on Wednesday. Zack Wheeler will get the start for Philadelphia. He checks in sporting a 2.84 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while giving up only 3.09 runs per nine innings this season. In 23 career outings against Atlanta, Wheeler owns a solid 3.19 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Behind Wheeler is a Phillies bullpen that entered last night's action with a 3.52 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over its last seven games. On the road this season, the Phillies have converted 16 saves while blowing eight. Charlie Morton will counter for Atlanta. He has recorded a 4.07 FIP and 1.25 WHIP while giving up 4.5 runs per nine innings. The Phillies have already seen Morton three times previously this season, reaching him for 10 earned runs in 15 innings. The Atlanta bullpen has posted a collective 4.22 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven contests and has blown 10 saves (while making good on 18) at home this season, again entering last night's action. Take Philadelphia +1.5 runs (8*).  |
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08-02-22 | Red Sox v. Astros -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Boston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Astros should have the decided advantage both early and late in Tuesday’s game and we’ll confidently back them at a reasonable price. Rookie Kutter Crawford will take the ball for the visiting Red Sox. He checks in with a 3.72 FIP and 1.22 WHIP this season, giving up just north of 4.3 runs per nine innings. My concern here is that he’ll be starting on just four days’ rest for a second straight turn in the rotation. He turned in one of his best efforts of the season last time out against Cleveland. That was at home against a weaker opponent than he’ll face tonight, however. His counterpart on Tuesday will be Cristian Javier of the Astros. While his numbers have risen recently, he still owns a solid 3.39 FIP and 1.06 WHIP while yielding just 3.26 runs per nine innings this season. Meanwhile, the Astros bullpen behind Javier has been terrific, particularly at home. Entering this series, Houston’s relief corps had posted a collective 1.91 ERA and 0.93 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only five blown here at Minute Maid Park. The Red Sox ‘pen entered the series with just 11 saves converted and 12 blown away from home this season. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*). |
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08-02-22 | Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We’ll back the Brewers in this one, but rather than support them over the full nine innings we’ll lay the half-run with them in the first five frames only as I like the starting pitching edge but there’s little advantage in terms of the two bullpens. Burnes owns a 2.93 ERA and 0.92 WHIP while giving up only 2.6 runs per nine innings this season. He’s faced the Pirates six times over the course of his career, recording a 2.27 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with the Brewers winning five of those games. The concern is, the Brewers bullpen has posted a 5.04 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over the last seven games. The Pirates ‘pen on the other hand has quietly turned it around after a rough stretch, recording a 2.96 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over its last seven contests. Bryse Wilson gets the start for Pittsburgh. He has endured a tough big league season having posted a 4.68 FIP and 1.60 WHIP while giving up a whopping 7.44 runs per nine innings. The Brewers will be seeing him for the second time and I expect them to have greater success after reaching him for just two earned runs over six innings in a 7-4 loss back on July 2nd. Note that despite that recent solid outing, in four career starts against Milwaukee, Wilson owns a 5.21 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Take Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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08-02-22 | Rockies v. Padres -1.5 | 5-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego -0.5 runs first five innings over Colorado at 4:10 pm et on Tuesday. We’ll back the Padres in the first five innings in Game 1 of this double-header on Tuesday in San Diego. The Padres have a significant starting pitching advantage in this one as they send Yu Darvish to the mound against Ryan Feltner. Darvish checks in with a 3.14 FIP and 0.97 WHIP this season, yielding just 3.24 runs per nine innings. The problem is the Padres bullpen has been struggling, recording a collective 4.87 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven games. We’ll look to avoid that unit by playing the first five innings only. Ryan Feltner will get the start for the Rockies. He has posted a 4.39 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while giving up north of 5.8 runs per nine innings this season. Note that Feltner has allowed 2.7 more hits, 0.7 more home runs and 0.6 more walks per nine innings compared to Darvish. Take San Diego -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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08-01-22 | Mets -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up for the Mets, at least early on, as they head to Washington to open a series against the Nationals on Monday. Max Scherzer will take the ball for New York. He's been terrific since returning from injury, lowering his FIP to 2.50 and WHIP to 0.90 on the season. The Mets ace has allowed just 2.2 runs per nine innings this season. With that being said, there's no real advantage for the Mets in the later innings of this one as their bullpen has been good, but not on the same level as the Nats' relief corps lately. Washington's 'pen has posted a sparkling 1.11 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven games. At home this season, it has recorded a 3.21 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Patrick Corbin gets the start for Washington on Monday. To say his season has been a disaster might be an understatement. The left-hander owns a 4.62 FIP and 1.77 WHIP while yielding a whopping 7.43 runs per nine innings. The Mets last saw him back on May 31st and tagged him for seven earned runs on 12 hits over just 4 1/3 innings in a 10-0 rout. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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07-31-22 | A's v. White Sox -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago -0.5 runs first five innings over Oakland at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. We have a starting pitching mismatch in this game as the White Sox send their ace Dylan Cease to the hill against Adam Oller of the A's. Oller has been having a miserable rookie campaign having posted a 7.51 FIP and 1.86 WHIP while giving up a whopping 8.91 runs per nine innings. The A's bullpen behind him has actually been solid, however, with a 2.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over the last seven games so we're not interested in the bullpen matchup here and will elect to fade the A's in 'first five innings' only. Dylan Cease is having a career year, recording a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.66 FIP and 1.19 WHIP. He's limited the opposition to only 2.85 runs per nine innings. Look for the White Sox to get the jump on the A's early in this contest. Take Chicago -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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07-30-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | 3-5 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Dodgers on the run-line last night as a two-out, two-run single from Randal Grichuk ultimately cost us the win. With that being said, I won't hesitate to come right back with the same play on Saturday. Los Angeles will send Clayton Kershaw to the hill after he struggled against the Giants last time out (the Dodgers still won that game 7-4). Note that he has posted a 2.61 FIP and 0.95 WHIP this season, yielding just 2.61 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Saturday will be Kyle Freeland. He checks in sporting a 4.32 FIP and 1.36 WHIP, allowing north of 5.0 runs per nine innings. Freeland gives up 2.6 more hits and 1.0 more walks per nine innings compared to Kershaw this season. The Dodgers should have the advantage in the later innings of this one as well as their bullpen owns a collective 2.95 ERA and 1.12 WHIP on the road this season while the Rockies 'pen has posted a 4.31 ERA and 1.31 WHIP at home. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-30-22 | Winnipeg v. Calgary +1.5 | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary plus the points over Winnipeg at 7 pm et on Saturday. I expect the Blue Bombers undefeated start to the season to finally come to an end on Saturday in Calgary. This is a quick revenge spot for the Stampeders after they dropped a 26-19 decision in Winnipeg two weeks ago. Calgary couldn't have played much worse in that game - on either side of the football - but still lost by just a touchdown, on the road no less. I certainly anticipate a sharper performance here at home, especially given they've had an extra week to prepare. Since that last meeting, the Blue Bombers rolled to a two-touchdown victory in Edmonton (we won with the 'under' in that game) while the Stamps enjoyed their bye week. Note that Winnipeg WR Greg Ellingson is banged-up and remains questionable to play on Saturday. Here, we'll note that the Stamps are a long-term 111-89 ATS when coming off an ATS loss and I look for them to improve on that mark on Saturday. Take Calgary (10*). |
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07-30-22 | Royals v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
A.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 2:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Yankees on the run-line last night as they exploded in the eighth inning in an eventual lopsided victory, and I won’t hesitate to come right back with the same play on Saturday afternoon. Jon Heasley will take the ball for the Royals. His rookie campaign has been a disaster in many regards. He has posted a 5.49 FIP and 1.51 WHIP while giving up a whopping 5.85 runs per nine innings. Heasley isn’t likely to get much help from a Royals bullpen that owns a 4.84 ERA and 1.48 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night’s action). Nestor Cortes Jr. will counter for New York. The All-Star has recorded a 3.41 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while yielding only 2.57 runs per nine innings this season. Unlike the Royals, the Yankees have a tremendous bullpen that owns a 2.78 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 17 saves converted and only five blown at home this season. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-29-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | 5-4 | Loss | -144 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. We’ll confidently back the Dodgers on Friday as they hand the ball to Julio Urias against Chad Kuhl of the Rockies. Urias enters with a 3.91 FIP and 1.00 WHIP this season, giving up just north of 3.3 runs per nine innings. He checks in allowing 2.4 fewer hits and 1.6 fewer walks per nine innings compared to his counterpart on Friday, Kuhl. Kuhl sports a 4.59 FIP and 1.44 WHIP this season. He got off to a fine start to his first campaign with the Rockies but things have gone downhill since. Note that he is allowing just shy of 4.7 runs per nine innings and faces a tall task in the Dodgers loaded lineup here. The bullpens are a mismatch as well as the Dodgers ‘pen has been terrific on the road this season, posting a collective 2.91 ERA and 1.10 WHIP (entering last night’s action), converting nine saves while blowing only two. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-29-22 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Arizona at 7:20 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Braves following a disappointing series in Philadelphia. It’s been a much different story for his counterpart on Friday, Kyle Wright of the Braves. He checks in with a 3.32 FIP and 1.16 WHIP while holding the opposition to only 3.18 runs per nine innings. While Arizona does bring solid bullpen form into this series-opener, much of the recent success that it has enjoyed has come at home. On the road, the D’Backs have recorded a collective 5.18 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Braves ‘pen owns a 3.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP at home this season. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-29-22 | Royals v. Yankees -1.5 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Kansas City at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Even though he’s pitched well lately, we’ll continue to go against Royals starter Kris Bubic as we continue to anticipate some regression from recent form. On the season, Bubic has recorded a 5.08 FIP and 1.65 WHIP while giving up a whopping 6.19 runs per nine innings. He faced the Yankees once previously back in April and that start didn’t go particularly well as he was tagged for three earned runs on four hits, including two home runs, over five innings in a 12-2 loss. Gerrit Cole will counter for the Yankees on Friday. The All-Star is having another fine season having posted a 3.24 FIP and 1.02 WHIP while giving up only 3.17 runs per nine innings. He should be pleased to see the Royals, noting that he owns a 2.04 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in six career starts against them. The Yankees bullpen went through a bit of a rough patch recently but has since turned it around, posting a collective 3.54 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over the last seven games. For the season, the Yanks ‘pen has recorded a 2.88 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at home, converting 17 saves and blowing only five. Meanwhile, the Royals relief corps has posted a 4.66 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road, converting 12 saves and blowing nine. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-28-22 | Rangers v. Angels -1.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Texas at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers have been a major disappointment this season and that narrative has held true this week as they just got swept (again) by the Mariners. I don't see them picking themselves up off the mat for Thursday's series-opener against Shohei Ohtani and the Angels. While Ohtani's bat hasn't been quite as explosive as it was last season, his arm has been just as effective as he checks in sporting a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.41 FIP and 1.00 WHIP while allowing just under 2.9 runs per nine innings. He didn't have his best stuff in his most recent start in Atlanta but actually kept his team in the game for five solid innings before imploding (we cashed with the Angels +0.5 first five innings in that game). I expect him to bounce back here at home on Thursday. Ohtani's counterpart on Thursday will be Spencer Howard of the Rangers. He's been the polar opposite of Ohtani, recording an 8.01 FIP and 1.78 WHIP while giving up just under 7.5 runs per nine frames. Behind Howard is a Rangers bullpen that has posted a collective 5.84 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-28-22 | Tigers +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 runs first five innings over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I can't help but feel the Blue Jays are overvalued here, especially when you consider we can grab an insurance run with the Tigers in the first five innings at such a reasonable price. Tyler Alexander will get his first start for the Tigers since April. He suffered an injury and then when he returned to the bigs he was relegated to bullpen duty, and pitched reasonably well in that role. Alexander has posted a 4.32 FIP and 1.29 WHIP this season. While those numbers aren't all that impressive, they're certainly better than those of his counterpart on Thursday, Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi returns from the I.L. on Thursday and prior to that, things weren't going well as he had recorded a 5.82 FIP and 1.57 WHIP while giving up 5.95 runs per nine innings. Note that the Tigers average 4.0 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season compared to their season scoring average of just 3.2 rpg. The bullpens are essentially a wash with the Blue Jays holding a slight advantage in terms of recent form. With that in mind, we'll grab the +1.5 cushion with the Tigers in the first five innings. Take Detroit +1.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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07-27-22 | Nationals v. Dodgers -1.5 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Washington at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. We’ll confidently back the Dodgers minus the extra run as they give Andrew Heaney his first start in a long time after dealing with a shoulder injury. Heaney draws a favorable opponent in his return to the rotation in the Nationals and also has the edge against Washington starter Patrick Corbin, who continues to struggle through the 2022 campaign. Heaney has been working his way back in the minor league ranks and most recently fared well at the AAA level, posting a 1.23 ERA and 0.55 WHIP in two starts covering 7 1/3 innings at Oklahoma City. He’s logged 15 1/3 innings at the big league level this season, recording a 2.15 FIP and 0.85 WHIP while giving up only 1.76 runs per nine innings (small sample size, I know). Corbin has been discussed as a trade deadline target but I’m not sure why any teams would be interested considering his 4.61 FIP and 1.70 WHIP this season. He has allowed a whopping 6.96 runs per nine innings. As I’ve noted on multiple previous occasions, the Nats bullpen has been awful on the road this season, entering last night’s action sporting a 5.77 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Look for the Dodgers to wear out the Nats pitching staff in this one. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-26-22 | Rays -1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I’ll back the Rays in the first five innings in Baltimore on Tuesday as they hand the ball to their ace and American League All-Star Game starter Shane McClanahan. The left-hander didn’t exactly have a banner performance in his lone inning of work in the All-Star Game but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s having a fantastic season, having posted a 2.42 FIP and 0.80 WHIP while giving up only 2.11 runs per nine innings. He should be happy to be facing the Orioles here, noting that he owns a 2.31 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in five career outings against them. Orioles starter Spenser Watkins hasn’t been nearly as successful against the Rays. In five career starts against them he owns an ugly 7.71 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. Watkins has struggled as a whole this season, posting a 4.50 FIP and 1.37 WHIP, yielding just north of 4.6 runs per nine innings. This will be Tampa Bay’s sixth time seeing the right-hander since the start of last season and it’s worth noting that the Rays have been better against righties than lefties this season, averaging 4.5 runs per game against RH starting pitching compared to their 4.2 rpg overall. By playing the first five innings only we’ll look to avoid the bullpen matchup as the O’s have one of the best relief corps’ in baseball and bring terrific form into this series having recorded a 2.08 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s contest). The Rays on the other hand have blown exactly as many saves as they’ve converted on the road this season (nine). Take Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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07-25-22 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | 5-7 | Loss | -128 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Astros had no trouble sweeping aside the previously red hot Mariners in Seattle over the weekend and I look for them to keep it rolling as they head to Oakland to face the lowly A’s on Monday. Jake Odorizzi will get the start for Houston. He’s been quietly effective this season, posting a 3.44 FIP and 1.19 WHIP while giving up 4.31 runs per nine innings. That last number is somewhat concerning but negated by the fact he’ll be facing the light-hitting A’s on Monday. Oakland did find some success at the dish against the Rangers over the weekend but I do think it will find the going a little tougher against one of the best pitching staffs in baseball in the Astros. Adam Oller will get another spot start for the A’s on Monday. To say that he’s off to an awful start to his big league career would be an understatement. Oller has recorded a 7.92 FIP and 1.98 WHIP while yielding a whopping 9.22 runs per nine innings in 27 1/3 innings of work this season. He’s allowing 11.5 hits, 2.6 home runs and a ridiculous 6.3 walks per nine innings. While I do realize we’re talking about a small sample size, those are still alarming numbers. The A’s bullpen will likely be put to work early in this one and while it has held up well recently, it still entered yesterday’s action sporting a 4.83 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with only eight saves converted and six blown at home this season. In contrast, the Astros ‘pen converted its 17th road save yesterday (it has blown just six). Houston entered yesterday’s contest with a 3.65 ERA and 1.36 WHIP away from home. Take Houston -1.5 runs (9*). |
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07-24-22 | Padres +1.5 v. Mets | 5-8 | Loss | -190 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego +0.5 runs first five innings over New York at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the Mets in last night's disappointing 2-1 loss - the Padres second consecutive victory to open this series. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Padres with a half-run of insurance in the first five innings (or straight-up on the first five innings moneyline if that's the only line available at your book), as I can certainly make the case for the wrong team being favored - in the first five frames at least. While it's not a complete mismatch, there's no question Joe Musgrove of the Padres holds the edge in tonight's starting pitching matchup against Carlos Carrasco of the Mets. Musgrove has seen his FIP climb just north of 3.00 to 3.09 but he still owns a terrific 0.97 WHIP and yields just under 2.8 runs per nine innings. In comparison to Carrasco, Musgrove gives up 2.8 fewer hits, 0.2 fewer home runs and 0.4 fewer walks per nine innings. Carrasco checks in with a 3.51 FIP and 1.33 WHIP, giving up just shy of 4.3 runs per nine innings this season. The Padres have been slightly better in terms of offensive production against right-handed starting pitching and entered last night's action averaging 5.0 runs per game on the road this season (compared to 4.3 rpg overall). I don't want any part of the bullpen matchup in this one as the Padres relief corps entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.64 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over the last seven games while the Mets 'pen posted a 1.99 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over the same stretch. Take San Diego +0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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07-24-22 | Astros v. Mariners +1.5 | 8-5 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Houston at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Mariners went into the All-Star break as the hottest team in baseball and then their young star Julio Rodriguez put on a show in the Home Run Derby. All was well in Seattle, that is until the Astros rolled into town on Friday. Houston has taken the first two games in this series but I do look for Seattle to give it everything it can handle in Sunday's finale. Framber Valdez will take the ball for the visiting Astros. There's really not a lot negative I can point out when it comes to the All-Star pitcher. It is worth noting that he allows 0.5 more walks and 2.4 fewer strikeouts per nine innings this season compared to his counterpart on Sunday, Mariners left-hander Robbie Ray. You would have to go back three starts to find the last time the Astros won a game by 2+ runs with Valdez on the mound. Robbie Ray checks in with a 3.91 FIP and 1.09 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.6 runs per nine innings this season. His 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings is a big reason for that FIP sitting near 4.00. Note that you would have to go back seven starts to find the last time the Mariners lost a game started by Ray. They're 8-2 in his 10 home starts when factoring in the +1.5 run-line this season. You have to go back four starts, all the way to 2016, to find the last time Ray didn't guide his team to victory when starting against the Astros. The later innings could belong to the Mariners in this one, noting that Seattle's bullpen entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 1.97 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over the last seven games and a 3.04 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home this season. The Astros 'pen has been outstanding in its own right, but did enter yesterday's game with an elevated 3.65 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road this season. Take Seattle +1.5 runs (7*). |
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07-22-22 | Angels +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -165 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
Interleague first five innings Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles +0.5 runs first five innings over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. The Angels own a considerable starting pitching advantage in the opener of this interleague series in Atlanta on Friday. I don’t believe it’s being properly reflected in the ‘first five innings’ line and will take advantage by grabbing the insurance half-run with the visiting Halos. Shohei Ohtani appeared in the All-Star Game as a batter only, allowing him to start this series-opener on Friday. He’s done nothing but impress on the mound again this season, recording a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.27 FIP and 0.99 WHIP while allowing just under 2.5 runs per nine innings. By playing the first five innings only we’ll look to avoid an Angels bullpen that has posted a 3.90 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over the last seven games and has converted just eight saves while blowing six on the road this season. The Braves are in slightly better current form in that department with their relief corps having recorded a 0.88 WHIP over the last seven contests. Charlie Morton will get the start for Atlanta on Friday. He’s logged a pedestrian 4.20 FIP and 1.25 WHIP this season, yielding 4.55 runs per nine innings along the way. Take Los Angeles +0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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07-22-22 | Rockies v. Brewers -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings over Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We have a considerable starting pitching advantage in this game as the Brewers send their ace, Corbin Burnes, to the hill against Antonio Senzatela of the Rockies. We’ll play the first five innings only as the Brewers bullpen has admittedly struggled lately, posting an inflated 7.96 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. While he did get off to a bit of a rocky start, Burnes has once again rounded into form this season, recording a 2.90 FIP and 0.90 WHIP on the campaign, giving up just 2.45 runs per nine innings. Antonio Senzatela is in the midst of another trying campaign having posted a respectable 3.86 FIP but an ugly 1.80 WHIP while allowing a whopping 5.55 runs per nine innings. He’s giving up a ridiculous 14.0 hits per nine frames this season and I expect the Brew Crew to take full advantage. Take Milwaukee -0.5 runs first five innings. |
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07-21-22 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco +0.5 runs first five innings over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I certainly won't make a habit of fading the Dodgers but in this case I'm making an exception as I like the way this one sets up for the streaking Giants - at least early on. San Francisco will have a considerable edge in terms of the starting pitching matchup as it sends left-hander Carlos Rodon to the hill against Mitch White of the Dodgers. Rodon was named to the N.L. All-Star team but didn't pitch after taking the mound last weekend against the Brewers. He took a hard-luck no decision in that contest, allowing only one earned run over five innings in an eventual 3-2 loss. Rodon checks in sporting a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.14 FIP and 1.11 WHIP this season, yielding just 2.74 runs per nine innings. The reason I'm playing the first five innings only here is that the Giants bullpen has struggled, posting a collective 1.50 WHIP over the last seven games and a 4.04 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with just 11 saves converted and seven blown on the road this season. Mitch White has posted a 4.25 FIP and 1.29 WHIP this season, giving up 4.6 runs per nine innings. We have seen White stretched out a little more in terms of pitch count in recent starts and that actually works in our favor here as it likely keeps the terrific Dodgers bullpen out of the picture until after the fifth inning. Note that Los Angeles' relief corps owns a 2.95 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown over the last seven games. I'll grab the half-run as insurance at a reasonable price with the Giants, taking advantage of the fact that line is being offered given I can make a strong case for the Giants being favored in this spot. Take San Francisco +0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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07-16-22 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Oakland at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Astros dropped the opener of this series last night but I expect them to have little trouble bouncing back on Saturday. Justin Verlander gets the start for Houston. He's been terrific this season, posting a 3.27 FIP and 0.87 WHIP while allowing only 2.7 runs per nine innings. He obviously holds an advantage over A's left-handed rookie Jared Koenig, who has struggled in limited action, recording a 6.44 FIP and 1.75 WHIP while giving up just shy of 6.4 runs per nine innings. The Astros bullpen entered last night's game sporting a 2.60 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over its last seven games while the A's relief corps had recorded a 4.23 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-15-22 | Calgary v. Winnipeg -3.5 | 19-26 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg minus the points over Calgary at 8:30 pm et on Friday. This is the game of the season so far as the undefeated Stampeders travel to Winnipeg to face the 5-0 Blue Bombers. Calgary is coming off a 49-point explosion against the rival Edmonton Elks. It's worth noting that the Stamps didn't reach the end zone until just over four minutes remaining in the first half in that contest and that came on a complete defensive breakdown from the Elks defense as Malik Henry hauled in an 89-yard touchdown pass. From there, the Stamps returned a missed field goal for a touchdown less than two minutes into the second half and the rest was history as they routed the Elks by 43 points. The Blue Bombers aren't likely to be nearly as forgiving on Friday. Winnipeg is coming off a blowout win of its own but it was arguably more impressive as it came against the then-undefeated B.C. Lions, on the road no less. The Bombers are healthy and putting it all together right now as they've looked terrific on both sides of the football. They should have no trouble getting up for this game as they look to remain atop the West Division standings. While Calgary is on an impressive run, keep in mind, its four wins have come against the Alouettes (who just lost to the lowly Elks last night), the Ti-Cats (who are still winless at 0-4) and the aforementioned Elks (they check in 2-4 off last night's win). Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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07-13-22 | Reds v. Yankees -1.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -150 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. After the Reds staged a stunning ninth inning rally to go from 3-0 down to 4-3 up in an eventual victory last night, it's payback time on Wednesday. The Yankees have now lost three games in a row, suffering through a bit of a pre-All-Star lull. I expect them to bounce back here against Reds journeyman starter Mike Minor. Things haven't gone well for the veteran left-hander in Cincinnati as he has posted a 6.79 FIP and 1.42 WHIP, allowing just shy of 3.0 home runs per nine innings this season. Opponents have reached him for north of 6.6 runs per nine frames. His counterpart on Wednesday will be Luis Severino. It hasn't been a clean road back from injury for the right-hander this season but there have been more ups than downs as he checks in sporting a 3.54 FIP and 1.02 WHIP, limiting opponents to just over 3.2 runs per nine innings while logging 84 innings so far in 2022. While the Yankees bullpen coughed one up last night, they entered that contest with a collective 2.60 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 16 saves converted and only four blown here at home this season. In stark contrast, the Reds 'pen entered this series sporting a 5.36 ERA and 1.45 WHIP away from home. Take New York -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-12-22 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -1.5 | 0-13 | Win | 105 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings over Arizona at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. We’ll go back to the well fading D’Backs starter Dallas Keuchel on Tuesday in San Francisco. Keuchel was cut loose by the White Sox for good reason and checks into Tuesday’s start sporting a 5.19 FIP and 1.95 WHIP while allowing a ridiculous 8.75 runs per nine innings this season. The Giants figure to take advantage as they’re 16-10 against left-handed starters this season, averaging 5.2 runs per game (compared to their season scoring average of 4.7). Logan Webb has endured a bit of an up-and-down campaign for the Giants but there have undoubtedly been more ups than downs as he checks in with a 3.09 FIP and 1.11 WHIP, allowing just north of 3.3 runs per nine innings. San Francisco is a perfect 3-0 in Webb’s previous three career starts against the D’Backs, winning all three of those contests by at least two runs. By playing the first five innings only we’ll look to avoid a Giants bullpen that has admittedly struggled lately, entering this series with a 6.62 ERA and 2.15 WHIP over the last seven games. Take San Francisco -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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07-09-22 | Winnipeg +3.5 v. BC | Top | 43-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
CFL West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg plus the points over B.C. at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Lions have arguably been the most impressive team in the CFL through the first month of the season, reeling off three straight wins while scoring a whopping 137 points. It's worth noting, however, that they've yet to play a team outside the East Division. There's no question, the West is best when it comes to the CFL - at least so far this season. The Lions should find that out on Saturday as they host 4-0 Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers are the two-time defending Grey Cup champions and look every bit the part of a championship contender again this year. Winnipeg is playing on a very short week here after dispatching the Argos by a score of 23-22 on Monday. I don't mind that though as I think it helps the Bombers stay focused on this business-like two-game road trip. The Lions were barely able to escape with a 34-31 win over the still-winless RedBlacks in Ottawa last week. We saw some regression from the B.C. defense in that game and now I think we see it from its offense as it takes on arguably the best defense in the CFL. This matchup was no contest last season as the Bombers swept the two-game series, including a 30-9 victory here in B.C. While the Lions are certainly a better team in 2022 I'm not convinced they've completely closed the gap. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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07-07-22 | Cardinals v. Braves -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -0.5 runs first five innings over St. Louis at 7:20 pm et on Thursday. This is without question a starting pitching mismatch between two rookies that have been going in completely opposite trajectories this season. Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore has pitched reasonably well in a pair of home starts but the road has been a completely different story. Overall, he checks in sporting a 5.48 FIP and 1.79 WHIP. He's giving up too many hits (11.3 per nine innings), home runs (1.7) and certainly walks (4.8) and not missing nearly enough bats to make up for it (7.8 K's per nine innings). All told, opponents have lit up Liberatore for 5.66 runs per nine innings. Spencer Strider, meanwhile, has quietly put up Cy Young Award-caliber numbers in his rookie campaign with the Braves, posting an elite 2.00 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while yielding just under 3.2 runs per nine innings. We're not interested in messing with the bullpen matchup here (as good as Strider has been, he averages just 5.0 innings per start), as the Braves 'pen hasn't been as reliable as the Cards' relief corps, which checks in with a 1.40 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night's action). Take Atlanta -0.5 runs first five innings (8*). |
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07-07-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox +1.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston +1.5 runs over New York at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Yankees are coming off a late offensive explosion in last night's 16-0 rout of the Pirates while the Red Sox just dropped consecutive games against the Rays. Here, I'll go the contrarian route and grab the insurance run with Boston as it opens this four-game series at Fenway Park. Gerrit Cole will take the ball for New York. He's been pitching well, which is to be expected. It's been a mixed bag for Cole recently in Boston, however, as he's made four starts here since the start of last season and has been tagged for a whopping seven home runs. The long ball has been an issue for Cole again this season as he has allowed 1.4 home runs per nine innings, including three in his last two starts. If you were to compare numbers between tonight's two starting pitchers you might be surprised that the Red Sox are such an underdog here. While Cole checks in with a 3.42 FIP and 1.01 WHIP and allows right around 3.0 runs per nine innings, Red Sox rookie starter Josh Winckowski has posted a 2.96 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while giving up 3.46 runs per nine innings. We're obviously talking about a smaller sample size when it comes to the rookie but I've been impressed by the way he's hung in there and given the Red Sox some quality outings. I mentioned Cole's issues with home runs, Winckowski has been the polar opposite, allowing just one big fly in 26 innings of work this season, despite four of his five starts coming at Fenway Park and Wrigley Field (two hitter-friendly parks). The Yankees bullpen is without question elite - perhaps the best in baseball - but the Red Sox relief corps has battled here at home this season as well, recording a collective 3.89 ERA and 1.19 WHIP (entering last night's action). Take Boston +1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-06-22 | Mystics v. Dream +6 | 85-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Washington at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Washington has been far too soft defensively to warrant being a considerable road favorite against the Dream in Atlanta on Wednesday. The Mystics have allowed 30+ made field goals in six of their last nine games, despite seven of those opponents getting off fewer than 70 field goal attempts. Atlanta figures to take full advantage, noting that it has knocked down 31 and 33 field goals in its last two contests and has generally been forcing the issue offensively this season, hoisting up 70+ FG attempts in six of its last nine games. Defensively, we've seen the Dream tighten things up lately, limiting three of their last four opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, Washington has made good on fewer than 30 field goals in five of its last seven games overall. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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07-06-22 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. How many more opportunities will we get to fade Nationals starter Josiah Gray? The Nats' were a home favorite in his most recent start against the Marlins and he missed the mark again, yielding six earned runs on 10 hits over 5 2/3 innings. Gray had admittedly been pitching well over a five-start stretch previously but that success wasn't sustainable. He checks in sporting a 4.99 FIP and 1.27 WHIP while allowing north of 4.3 runs per nine innings this season. Behind Gray is an awful Nats' bullpen that has recorded a collective 6.04 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the last seven games and that's actually an improvement over their season numbers on the road (6.48 ERA and 1.58 WHIP). Philadelphia will counter with Aaron Nola. He's often the forgotten arm in a solid Phillies starting rotation but he continues to pitch effectively. Nola owns a 2.94 FIP and 0.92 WHIP this season, giving up only 3.21 runs per nine innings. The Philadelphia bullpen remains in terrific form, having posted a sparkling 1.17 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-06-22 | Angels -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 101 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Miami at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Marlins last night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Angels, on the run-line, on Wednesday. Los Angeles is struggling right now having lost four games in a row. After getting blown out in the first two of those four losses they've been close in the last two, dropping two and one-run decisions. Here, I expect them to finally get over the hump with Shohei Ohtani on the mound. Ohtani checks in sporting a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.52 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing only 2.68 runs per nine innings. He's been lights out over his last few starts in particular, not allowing a single earned run over those three outings. It's been a much different story for Marlins starter Trevor Rogers. He has posted a 4.75 FIP and 1.59 WHIP while yielding just shy of 6.0 runs per nine frames this season. While the Marlins do have the advantage in the later innings given their bullpen's recent form, I'm not convinced that's enough to make the difference here. Noting that all but one of the Angels 16 road wins this season have come by 2+ runs, I'm comfortable laying the extra run with the Halos on Wednesday. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-05-22 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Colorado at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. While we're talking about a smaller sample size innings-wise, there's really no comparison between Dodgers starter Mitch White and German Marquez of the Rockies. White has posted a 3.84 FIP and 1.19 WHIP this season and has had a bit of hard luck in allowing just shy of 4.2 runs per nine innings. He's allowing 2.5 fewer hits, 0.6 fewer home runs and 0.5 fewer walks per nine innings compared to the veteran Marquez this season. Marquez sports a 4.98 FIP and 1.54 WHIP and yields north of 6.5 runs per nine innings. The bullpen comparison is no contest either as the Rockies relief corps has posted a collective 5.23 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road while the Dodgers 'pen owns a 3.65 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*). |
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07-05-22 | Sun -5 v. Wings | Top | 71-82 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
WNBA Game of the Year. My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over Dallas at 8 pm et on Tuesday. While the Sun have won just twice in their last five games, including an narrow two-point victory over Washington last time out, I believe they're on the cusp of going on another run. Connecticut has certainly been 'filling it up' lately, knocking down 31, 27, 32 and 30 field goals over its last four games. Now it draws a favorable matchup against a Dallas defense that has yielded its last two opponents 34 and 37 made field goals (on 76+ attempts). In fact, the Wings have allowed 28+ made field goals in 10 of their last 11 contests. Only one of Connecticut's last five opponents has managed to knock down more than 27 field goals. I like the way the Sun have been limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, allowing fewer than 70 FG attempts in six consecutive games. While Dallas did make good on 33-of-66 FG attempts last time out against Los Angeles, it is just one game removed from shooting a miserable 17-of-59 against a subpar Minnesota defense. Dallas has made 30+ field goals only twice in its last five contests. Dallas snuck away with a victory in Connecticut in the first meeting between these two teams this season but revenge was sweet for the Sun as they won by 31 points two nights later. Here, we'll note that Connecticut is on a 19-6 ATS run against Western Conference opponents, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.4 points. Take Connecticut (10*). |
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07-04-22 | Winnipeg v. Toronto +5.5 | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Winnipeg at 7:30 pm et on Monday. While the two-time defending champion Blue Bombers are off to a perfect 3-0 start it's important to keep things in perspective as those three victories came against the RedBlacks and Tiger-Cats - two teams that have combined to go 0-7 to start the season. The Argos are coming off an embarrassing 44-3 road defeat at the hands of the red hot Lions. I'm confident they can make amends for that poor performance back home, where they opened the campaign with a narrow one-point win over the Alouettes. I had the Argos rated as one of the league's best defensive teams entering the season and saw nothing to change my mind in their season-opener. After getting blasted by the Lions there's certainly reason for pause, but I'm willing to give them a 'mulligan' for that poor effort and look for a positive response here. The Blue Bombers offense hasn't looked the same without RB Andrew Harris (who now plays for Toronto but is listed as questionable for this game due to injury). They've scored just 64 points through three games with QB Zach Collaros topping out at 21 pass completions (he's completed just 54-of-80 pass attempts so far this season). WR Nic Demski hauled in six catches for 96 yards last time out against Hamilton but he's now sidelined with an injury. As the two-time defending champs, Winnipeg is going to get every opponents' best punch and I expect nothing different on Monday. Take Toronto (8*). |
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07-02-22 | Angels +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Houston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. I like the advantage the Angels have with Saturday’s starting pitching matchup as they send Patrick Sandoval to the hill against Jose Urquidy. Sandoval has been quietly impressive, recording a 3.21 FIP and 1.37 WHIP this season, giving up only 3.05 runs per nine innings. Urquidy has disappointed, posting a 4.83 FIP and 1.37 WHIP while yielding 4.6 runs per nine frames. Note that the Los Angeles bullpen has been terrific, posting a collective 3.50 ERA and 1.05 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night’s action). The Astros ‘pen is in poor form right now, recording a 5.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-01-22 | Rangers v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Interleague First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Texas at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Mets are coming off a two-game sweep at home against the Astros but I look for them to rebound on Friday, at least early on, against the Rangers. Glenn Otto will get the start for Texas. He's had command issues this season and checks in with a 5.19 FIP and 1.51 WHIP, allowing more than five walks per nine innings. Opponents are averaging north of 5.5 runs per nine innings off of the right-hander. Mets starter Chris Bassitt should be happy to face the Rangers - an old A.L. West division rival from his days with the Oakland A's. Bassitt owns a 3.93 FIP and 1.15 WHIP this season, allowing right around 4.1 runs per nine innings. Note that he's pitched well lately, allowing only six earned runs over his last three starts, spanning 21 1/3 innings of work. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid the bullpen matchup here as the Rangers relief corps has admittedly been terrific lately, recording a collective 1.59 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over its last seven games. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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07-01-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Reds | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Friday. We went against the Braves last night and were rewarded with a 14-4 Phillies victory in the finale of that divisional series. Here, Atlanta will travel to Cincinnati to face the lowly Reds and I look for them to get their frustrations out. Max Fried continues to rate as one of the best pitchers in baseball, checking in with a 2.58 FIP and 1.05 WHIP this season, allowing only 2.86 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Friday will be journeyman Mike Minor. He's having a miserable campaign, recording a 7.96 FIP and 1.60 WHIP, albeit with a small sample size of around 25 innings. Opponents have reached Minor for north of 7.7 runs per nine innings. The Braves should have the advantage in the later innings as well as Cincinnati's bullpen has been downright awful lately, posting a collective 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over the last seven games. The Reds have converted only four saves while blowing four at home this season. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (9*). |
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06-30-22 | Padres +1.5 v. Dodgers | 1-3 | Loss | -190 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Padres snapped their three-game skid yesterday in Arizona and I look for them to at the very least take the Dodgers down to the wire on Thursday. Joe Musgrove will take the ball for San Diego. He's coming off a rocky outing against the Phillies but that doesn't change the fact that he's firmly planted himself in the N.L. Cy Young award conversation this season, posting a 3.02 FIP and 0.95 WHIP while yielding just north of 2.5 runs per nine innings. Despite the Padres recent struggles as a whole, their bullpen has held up well, posting a 3.46 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). Mitch White will counter for Los Angeles. He's certainly been serviceable at the back-end of the Dodgers rotation this season but his numbers don't compare to Musgrove's. White owns a 4.08 FIP and 1.15 WHIP and gives up north of 4.5 runs per nine innings. I'm most concerned with his home run and walk totals as he's been tagged for 1.2 home runs and 3.0 walks per nine innings. The Dodgers bullpen has of course been terrific although it's worth noting that it has blown five saves (while converting 11) at home this season. Take San Diego +1.5 runs (8*). |
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06-28-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Mariners | 0-2 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore +1.5 runs over Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the ‘under’ in Orioles starter Dean Kremer’s most recent outing as he helped his team to a 4-0 victory over the White Sox in Chicago. Here, we’ll grab the insurance run with Kremer and the O’s as they look to get the better of Robbie Ray and the Mariners. Kremer owns an impressive 3.27 FIP and 1.24 WHIP in four starts, spanning 21 innings of work this season (small sample size, I know). Kremer should be pleased to be making a start in Seattle after he turned in one of his best outings of the season here last season, allowing just one earned run over six innings of two-hit ball in a 5-3 victory. Of course, it’s rarely a bad idea grabbing an insurance run with the O’s as they almost always have the advantage in the later innings with a bullpen that entered this series sporting a 1.11 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over its last seven contests. Baltimore’s relief corps has posted a 3.81 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only one blown on the road this season (entering last night’s action). Robbie Ray has been good but certainly not great in his first season with the Mariners. He checks in with a 4.18 FIP and 1.18 WHIP, allowing just under 4.2 runs per nine innings. The M’s have won just two of Ray’s last 12 starts by 2+ runs. While the Seattle bullpen entered this series with a solid 3.61 ERA and 1.13 WHIP at home the season it has converted only three saves while blowing four (again, entering last night’s action) here in the Pacific Northwest. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (8*). |
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06-28-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
N.L. Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I can’t help but feel Clayton Kershaw has become an undervalued commodity at this stage of his storied career (you might not know it by the moneyline in this game but I believe it could be even higher). We successfully backed Kershaw in his most recent start against the Reds and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well as he takes the ball at Coors Field in Denver on Tuesday. Kershaw settled in nicely in his second start since returning from the I.L., holding Cincinnati to one earned run over six innings, and brings a 2.44 FIP and 0.91 WHIP into this contest. Opponents have reached Kershaw for just 2.0 runs per nine innings this season. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He owns a pedestrian 4.14 FIP and 1.37 WHIP this season. Freeland has allowed 2.9 more hits and 1.2 more walks per nine innings compared to Kershaw this season. Making the majority of his starts at Coors Field certainly factors in but Freeland has given up just under 4.9 runs per nine innings this season. Of course, Los Angeles should have the edge in the later innings in this one as well with a bullpen that entered last night’s action sporting a 3.29 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over its last seven games. The Rockies ‘pen entered this series having recorded a 5.49 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-26-22 | Pirates v. Rays -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 110 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The Pirates have certainly been snake-bitten in this series, dropping consecutive games by a single run, one coming in extra innings and the other in walk-off fashion in a game they led 5-3 in the eighth inning yesterday. Here, I don't anticipate the game being as close as the Rays send their ace Shane McClanahan to the hill against rookie Roansy Contreras of the Buccos. McClanahan has firmly planted himself in the A.L. Cy Young Award conversation this season, posting a 2.74 FIP and 0.85 WHIP while allowing only 2.35 runs per nine innings. The Rays have dropped his last two starts with each of those coming against the best team in baseball, the New York Yankees. Prior to that they had won each of McClanahan's last seven trips to the hill. Contreras is having a fine season by rookie standards. However, I will point out that he'll be starting on four days' rest for just the second time this season and in the previous two outings he gave up 11 hits and five earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings of work. Contreras checks in with a 4.11 FIP and 1.29 WHIP this season, again those are solid numbers, but don't really compare to McClanahan's. Also note that the Rays should continue to have a big advantage in the later innings with a bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a 2.78 ERA and 1.06 WHIP at home this season. The Pirates 'pen has really struggled, entering yesterday's game with a 5.06 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over its last seven games (and proceeded to cough up the two-run lead in yesterday's loss). Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (9*). |
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06-25-22 | Sparks v. Storm -9 | Top | 85-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
WNBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Saturday. The Storm have quietly rounded back into form, going 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS over their last seven games, including back-to-back SU and ATS victories entering Saturday's contest against the Sparks. Seattle has been 'filling it up', knocking down 37, 29, 28, 28, 32 and 31 field goals over its last six games and should be able to keep it going against a weak Los Angeles defense that has yielded 32+ made field goals in seven of its last 10 games. The Sparks offense has been wildly inconsistent lately. After scoring 82 and 84 points over a two-game stretch it was held to just 59 points on 26-of-79 shooting against a vulnerable Chicago defense last time out. The Storm took the first meeting between these two teams by just three points back in May. Keep in mind, that matchup came at a time when Seattle was playing an uneven brand of basketball. The Sparks shot the lights out in that contest, something I don't anticipate them doing here. Take Seattle (10*). |
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06-25-22 | Reds v. Giants -1.5 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Reds got the better of the struggling Giants in the opener of this series last night, taking advantage of a starting pitching advantage with impressive rookie Graham Ashcraft turning in another fine outing. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as San Francisco hands the ball to its ace Logan Webb against Reds struggling veteran right-hander Mike Minor. Webb went through a bit of a rough patch earlier this season but has once again righted the ship and checks in with a 3.05 FIP and 1.16 WHIP, allowing only 3.36 runs per nine innings on the campaign. He faced the Reds once last season, tossing six shutout innings in an eventual 6-3 Giants victory here at Oracle Park. As I mentioned, Reds starter Mike Minor has had a rough go since joining the rotation. He's recorded an ugly 7.33 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while giving up just shy of 7.0 runs per nine innings in four starts covering 20 2/3 innings of work. Behind Minor is a Reds bullpen that entered last night's game with a collective 7.83 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-25-22 | Orioles v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago -0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the half-run with the White Sox in the first five innings against the Orioles on Saturday as they look to get back on track after dropping the first two games of this series in somewhat embarrassing fashion. Spenser Watkins gets a spot start for the Orioles. He's made eight previous starts this season and they haven't gone well. Watkins checks in sporting a 6.15 FIP and 1.70 WHIP. You could argue that we're talking about a fairly small sample size but it's worth noting that Watkins also posted a 6.37 FIP and 1.70 WHIP in 53 2/3 innings of work last season. His counterpart today will be veteran right-hander Lance Lynn. Lynn hasn't pitched well in his first two starts back from injury. With that being said, I think there were positives to take away from his last outing against the Blue Jays. He gave up just four hits over five innings in that contest with the Sox prevailing by an 8-7 score. The White Sox bats have certainly come alive in Lynn's previous two outings, producing a grand total of 17 runs. Lynn faced the Orioles once last year and tossed five shutout innings in an eventual 3-1 victory. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid the bullpen matchup here with the O's 'pen having posted a 1.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over its last seven games. The Chicago 'pen owns an ugly 5.37 ERA and 1.55 WHIP at home this season with only nine saves converted compared to eight blown. Take Chicago -0.5 runs first five innings (10*). |
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