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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-21-21 | Pelicans +7 v. Jazz | 118-129 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Utah at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans suffered a third quarter lapse in Tuesday's meeting between these two teams, and it ultimately cost them in an eventual 16-point loss (that result was actually flattering as the Pelicans closed the gap in garbage time in the fourth quarter). I do expect a strong bounce-back performance from New Orleans here. Note that while Utah took three of four meetings between these two teams last season, they did so by a combined six-point margin. We're catching that many points in this game alone with the number potentially moving higher closer to tipoff. Despite their 5-8 record, I do think the Pelicans have the potential to be an improved team and I'm confident head coach Stan Van Gundy will have them ready following an off day in Utah yesterday. I'll call for the Pels' to at the very least take this one down to the wire against a red hot Jazz squad. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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01-19-21 | Thunder v. Nuggets -9.5 | 101-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Oklahoma City at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Nuggets have been scuffing their heels all season, off to a disappointing 6-7 start although we did cash with them last Thursday night in their double-digit win over the Warriors - the same Warriors team that stunned the Lakers last night in Los Angeles. Here, I look for a focused effort from Denver as it looks to close out its three-game homestand on a winning note before heading out on the road for five games. Oklahoma City was expected to be a bottom-feeder in the Western Conference this season but has surprised by going 6-6 through 12 games including a 5-1 mark away from home. The Thunder really got rolling out east earlier this month, reeling off four wins in five games on the road but since then they've gone just 1-2 with both losses coming by double-digit margins. I believe their lack of depth catches up with them in this spot as they play their fifth game in eight nights against a highly-motivated Nuggets squad that has the talent to win this one going away provided it stays focused. Take Denver (10*). |
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01-18-21 | Wolves +8 v. Hawks | 97-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Atlanta at 2:35 pm et on Monday. The Hawks have lost six of their last seven games overall and now return home off a three-game road trip that got limited to two due to a Covid-related postponement in Phoenix. The T'Wolves have just three wins in 11 games this season and now have to deal with the absence of numerous key cogs, including Karl-Anthony Towns due to a positive Covid diagnosis. I do look for them to step up in his absence on Monday, however, and we're being given a generous helping of points to work with. After blowing a double-digit fourth quarter lead and losing by 11 points against the Grizzlies last time out, look for Minnesota to bring its best effort on Monday afternoon. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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01-17-21 | Pelicans v. Kings +2 | 128-123 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over New Orleans at 9:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the home side in this matchup of two struggling Western Conference teams. New Orleans enters this game having dropped five in a row. In spite of that, it finds itself in a bit of a letdown spot off consecutive games against two of the West's best teams in the Clippers and Lakers in Los Angeles. The Pelicans will also be looking ahead to back-to-back tough games in Utah up next. The Kings have lost their last two games and four of their last five overall. They've been home since January 6th and will be up for finishing this homestand on a high note before playing seven of their next eight contests on the road. I believe the case can be made that the wrong team is favored in this one. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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01-16-21 | Rams v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 18-32 | Win | 100 | 52 h 47 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. Full disclosure - the Packers were my pick to win the Super Bowl prior to the NFL Playoffs getting underway last weekend. Here, I won't hesitate to back them laying a very reasonable number against the Rams. I'll give plenty of credit to the Rams for outlasting the Seahawks last Saturday. Los Angeles took advantage of a disjointed Seattle offense that took a turn for the worse past the midway point of the season and never really turned it back around - ultimately its downfall in my opinion. QB Jared Goff certainly didn't look healthy in last Saturday's win, with very little zip on any of his passes. He's probably the Rams best option again this week, however, after backup John Wolford suffered a scary head/neck injury last Saturday. Los Angeles will once again rely on its defense to win this football game - I'm just not convinced it can shut down the Packers vaunted offense the way it did the Seahawks. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers looks like he's having as much fun as he has at any point of his long illustrious career. This is a better offense than most give it credit for in my opinion. Defensively, the Packers do have some holes up front but I'm not sure the Rams have the offense to take advantage. Look for Green Bay's rock solid secondary to be the real difference maker in this contest. They'll give up some yardage over the middle to slot man Cooper Kupp, but outside of that, I look for them to lock down this inconsistent Rams 'O'. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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01-15-21 | Mavs +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:35 pm et on Friday. The Mavs have been in catch-up mode ever since starting the season with consecutive losses. They've certainly done a nice job lately, reeling off four straight victories entering Friday's showdown with the Bucks. I expect them to give Milwaukee all it can handle in this one. Unlike the Bucks last few opponents (their current three-game winning streak has come at the expense of the Cavs, Magic and Pistons), the Mavs aren't going to beat themselves. Dallas ranks eight in the NBA in fewest turnovers per offensive play. By contrast, the Bucks actually rank 17th in that category. Also note that the Mavs are top three in the league in opponents effective field goal percentage. It's not as if Dallas has faced a soft schedule either. The Mavs opponents have included the Suns, Lakers, Clippers, Heat, Rockets and Nuggets. Meanwhile, the Bucks have gone 1-3 SU in their four toughest matchups to date, against the Celtics, Heat (twice) and Jazz. Outside of that they really haven't been challenged. This should be a tightly-contested affair. Take Dallas (10*). |
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01-14-21 | Warriors v. Nuggets -4.5 | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Golden State at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Nuggets as they return home to host the Warriors on Thursday night. The Denver bandwagon effectively cleared in last Thursday's overtime loss to the Mavs but the Nuggets quietly rebounded with consecutive wins after that, before falling to the Nets in Brooklyn earlier this week. Here, I expect to see Denver bounce back in a big way against a Warriors squad that has somewhat surprisingly righted the ship of late, winning four of their last six games to pull back over the .500 mark. I didn't like the way they faded in the second half against the Pacers last time out and believe they could be in for a rude awakening here after playing each of their first seven January games at home. Take Denver (10*). |
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01-13-21 | Mavs v. Hornets +4.5 | 104-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Dallas at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Hornets just keep rolling along, winners of four games in a row entering Wednesday's matchup with the Mavericks. They might be catching Dallas at the right time as the Mavs return to the floor following a postponed game due to Covid concerns on Monday in New Orleans. The Mavs had won three straight games heading into that postponement but could certainly be off their game here, especially with a clear look-ahead to a showdown in Milwaukee on Friday night. I simply feel Dallas is laying a couple of points too many in this spot. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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01-12-21 | Spurs -1.5 v. Thunder | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Thunder are coming off a 4-1 road trip that saw them sweep a pair of games in New York against the Knicks and Nets over the weekend. Now I expect them to suffer a letdown as they return home to host the Spurs on Tuesday night. San Antonio had its three-game winning streak snapped last time out in Minnesota. Demar Derozan's likely absence will give the rest of the Spurs an opportunity to step up and fill the void on Tuesday night and I'm calling for a strong bounce-back perfromance before they return home for consecutive games against the Rockets on Thursday and Saturday. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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01-09-21 | Hawks -4 v. Hornets | 105-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Hawks as they look to get back at the Hornets after suffering a 102-94 loss in this same matchup on Wednesday night. Atlanta fell behind by 16 points after the first quarter in that game and never really recovered. It was certainly an off shooting night for the Hawks as they knocked down just 38% of their FG attempts and shot 7-of-40 from beyond the arc. Trae Young contributed just seven points. Needless to say, I expect a strong bounce-back effort from Atlanta here as it looks to snap its three-game skid. Heading on the road might be a good thing for this team right now as they might have gotten a little high on the horse after a red hot start to the campaign. Charlotte is still just 4-5 on the season and will be playing the second of back-to-back nights after delivering a second straight outright underdog win on the road in New Orleans last night. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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01-06-21 | Rockets +2 v. Pacers | 107-114 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Indiana at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets are coming off a poor showing against the Mavs on Monday - a disappointing result after they swept a back-to-back set with the Kings. I do expect Houston to bounce back on Wednesday, however, as it catches Indiana returning home following an overtime win in New Orleans two nights ago, having alternated wins and losses over its last four games. For the Rockets, this is a key road tilt before returning home for their next three games. I expect a positive response from both James Harden and John Wall after the duo combined to shoot 9-of-27 from the field on Monday night. While controversy has swirled around Harden as he looks to get out of Houston, his play hasn't showed it as he is averaging 33 points and 10.8 assists per game this season. Take Houston (10*). |
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01-06-21 | Wizards +7 v. 76ers | 136-141 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Wizards could easily suffer a letdown here off a big upset win in Brooklyn on Sunday but having had two days off since that contest, I'm confident we'll see them use that victory as a building block. After all, the Wiz are off to a rough 2-5 start so they can ill afford to let down their guard, especially against a 76ers squad that has posted a 6-1 record. Keep in mind, this is a rematch from opening night, when the 76ers turned in a near-flawless performance yet still only won by six points. The Wizards were without sophomore Rui Hachimura in that game which is notable as he has been a steady contributor since returning, scoring 14.3 points per game and adding nearly four rebounds per contest. Also notable has been the steady improvement of Washington C Thomas Bryant, who has scored 28, 18 and 21 points over his last three games, hauling in 14 rebounds in Sunday's win over Brooklyn. The 76ers are obviously off to a tremendous start but they've also faced a fairly light schedule. Of their seven games, four have come at home and the list of teams they've faced is as follows; Washington, New York, Cleveland, Toronto, Orlando and Charlotte (twice). I look for the Wizards to give the Sixers a run in this one. Take Washington (10*). |
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01-05-21 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +9 | Top | 94-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Lakers had little trouble brushing aside the Grizzlies two nights ago, cruising to a 14-point victory. Keep in mind, Memphis shot just 41% from the field and got to the free throw line only eight times in that contest. The 14-point margin of victory for the Lakers was probably a little flattering for the Grizzlies in actual fact. Here, I look for the Grizzlies to turn in a better showing, while the Lakers turn in less than a peak performance with an eye on a three-game in four night stretch beginning on Thursday. There will obviously be games where the Lakers conserve a little energy over the course of this unique 2020-21 season, and this might just be one of them. The Grizzlies have actually held their own since losing star sophomore Ja Morant to injury. He went down early in their eventual overtime win over the Nets on December 28th. Including that game, they've gone 2-2 since losing Morant. This is a key spot for the Grizzlies as they aim to give themselves at least a chance of posting a winning homestand, with two winnable games against the Cavs and the perceiveably Durant-less Nets up next. Take Memphis (10*). |
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01-04-21 | Knicks v. Hawks -6 | 113-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over New York at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Knicks got past the Pacers in an early season revenge spot on Saturday night thanks to shooting the lights out and dominating the glass. I don't expect them to do either of those things on Monday as they head to Atlanta to face the Hawks. Atlanta should be in a foul mood after an extremely poor second half showing against the Cavs on Saturday (we won with the Cavs in that game). The Hawks jumped out to an early lead but couldn't make it stand up. Perhaps the fact they were playing on the second of back-to-back nights after closing out a tough two-game split in Brooklyn played a role. While the Hawks bandwagon mostly cleared after that loss to Cleveland, I expect them to respond with a big effort on Monday night against the upstart Knicks. One thing we know is while Atlanta is off to a solid start, it certainly isn't good enough to overlook a team like New York. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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01-03-21 | Seahawks -6.5 v. 49ers | 26-23 | Loss | -112 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The 49ers delivered a stunning upset win over the Cardinals last Saturday leading some to believe they may offer some value in an underdog role against the Seahawks here this week. I don't believe that's the case, however, as we should see San Francisco effectively fold the tent against a motivated Seahawks squad that is absolutely rolling heading into Week 17. While Seattle has leaned heavily on its defense to win games in recent weeks, this is a prime breakout spot for its offense against a 49ers defense that has been injury-ravaged all season long and can't have much left in the tank at this point. Meanwhile, a number of the 49ers key cogs on offense will sit this one out, leaving QB C.J. Beathard in tough against a still-surging Seahawks defense. Look for Seattle to be able to take the air out of the football in the fourth quarter of this one as it imposes its will and ultimately posts a comfortable win. Take Seattle (10*). |
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01-03-21 | Ravens -13.5 v. Bengals | Top | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Ravens in their blowout victory over the Giants last Sunday - our second time winning with them in the last three games - and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again as they hit the road to face the Bengals in Week 17 action on Sunday. As I noted in last week's analysis, Baltimore's bandwagon effectively cleared during a three-game Covid-induced slide in late November-early December. Since then all the Ravens have done is get healthy and go a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four contests. Now they draw another favorable matchup against the Bengals, who are in a clear letdown spot off last week's offensive eruption against a hapless Texans defense. Despite winning consecutive games in improbable fashion, the Bengals were actually shredded for nearly seven yards per rush by the Steelers and Texans over the last two weeks. The Ravens should have little trouble continuing that trend here. Meanwhile, the Baltimore defense has rounded back into the form we saw earlier in the season and is in line for another productive day against a Bengals offense that isn't nearly as good as it looked last week. The Ravens had no trouble disposing of the Bengals by a 27-3 score the last time they squared off. Expect another lopsided result here. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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01-02-21 | Cavs +7 v. Hawks | 96-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. While we've been high on the Hawks in the early going this season, I see this as a fine spot to fade them as they return home following a two-game set in Brooklyn. We're going to see all kinds of odd scheduling quirks over the course of this unique 2020-21 season. Here, Atlanta returns home on no rest after playing the Nets twice in three nights in Brooklyn. The Hawks managed to split those two contests and now I'm not sure we're going to see a peak effort from them against the Cavs on Saturday night. Cleveland has been an Eastern Conference doormat in recent years but is off to a fine 3-2 start this season, getting far more consistent production from its starting five than we've been used to seeing. We actually won by fading the Cavs in their most recent game - a 20-point loss in Indiana on New Year's Eve. That was an excellent spot for the Pacers, however, and Cleveland could have made a game of it were it not for an off night from the free throw line (it shot 13-of-24). Take Cleveland (10*). |
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01-02-21 | Creighton -4 v. Providence | 67-65 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Creighton minus the points over Providence at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the 11th-ranked Blue Jays on Saturday as they travel to face Providence. Creighton's only two losses this season have come against Kansas and Marquette by a combined six points so the blemishes on its 7-2 overall record are minor to say the least. This game will feature a real contrast in styles with the Blue Jays preferring a more up-tempo game compared to the Friars slow-it-down mindset. Note that the Friars rank 224th in the country in possessions per game. By contrast, Creighton ranks 72nd in that category. I'm just not sure the Friars will have enough possessions to keep pace with Creighton here, noting that the Blue Jays rank 19th in effective field goal percentage while Providence sits 141st. Take Creighton (10*). |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati v. Georgia -6.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -114 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Cincinnati at 12 noon et on Saturday. Cincinnati has gone undefeated this season and we've been along for the ride in a few of those victories but here I believe the Bearcats are going to be in tough trying to keep this game close against Georgia. If you're not going to come up with big, explosive plays on offense, you're not likely going to hang around against the Bulldogs. Georgia's defense is just too good to string together long, methodical touchdown drives against but unfortunately that's been the Bearcats M.O. this season. In their only two losses against Florida and Alabama, Georgia gave up a number of long touchdown runs and passes - Cincinnati just isn't likely to display that same sort of quick score ability. Meanwhile, we saw Georgia's offense really round into form down the stretch. While it will face a tough challenge here, it's not anything it hasn't faced in the SEC this season. The Bearcats are a talented team across the board, but boasts few players that have NFL potential. Georgia, on the other hand, is loaded with NFL-level talent and poised to end its 2020 campaign on a high note on New Year's Day in its own backyard (this game will be played in Atlanta). Take Georgia (10*). |
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12-31-20 | Cavs v. Pacers -7.5 | 99-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Cleveland at 3:05 pm et on Thursday. These two teams check in with identical 3-1 records this season but I don't think there's any question Indiana is the superior squad. Keep in mind, the Cavs three victories have come against the Hornets, Pistons and Joel Embiid-less 76ers. While Collin Sexton and Andre Drummond have been impressive for Cleveland, I expect the depth of the Pacers to wear it out on Thursday afternoon. Of course there's a chance we see a Pacers letdown here off consecutive tough battles against the Celtics but I think there's a better chance we see a focused effort from Indiana given it dropped its most recent game against Boston by a 116-111 score. Indiana continues to get production from up and down its lineup - most recently registering six players in double-figures. The Cavs have been living off of extra possessions, ranking tops in the league in steals per game. Indiana, however, is top nine in fewest turnovers and I look for it to do a fine job of taking care of the basketball here. Take Indiana (10*). |
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12-31-20 | Ball State v. San Jose State -9 | 34-13 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose State minus the points over Ball State at 2 pm et on Thursday. San Jose State has proven to be an underrated team all season long and there's little reason to expect it to finally get tripped up on Thursday against MAC opponent Ball State. The Spartans exceeded expectations at every turn this season, culminating with a first ever MWC championship over perennial winner Boise State. I really liked the way QB Nick Starkel stepped up in that contest, proving he is more than just a game manager by throwing for 453 yards and three touchdowns. Keep in mind, earlier in the season he also threw for 467 yards and five touchdowns against New Mexico. I absolutely love the versatility of this Spartans squad as they're able to win a slugfest or a shootout. Ball State blindsided conference front-runner Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game, although that victory had a lot to do with the Bulls losing do-it-all RB Jaret Patterson to injury in that contest. Outside of Buffalo, I didn't find the MAC overly impressive this season. Ball State does a lot of things ok but is by no means an elite offensive or defensive squad. Look for Cardinals QB Drew Plitt to be under duress all afternoon long and for the Spartans to force a key turnover or two that ultimately puts this game away. Take San Jose State (10*). |
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12-30-20 | Hawks v. Nets -6 | 141-145 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We've already backed the Hawks in all three games this season, going 2-1 ATS in the process, with our lone miss coming as a free play in Monday's win but non-cover against the Pistons. Here, I'll go the other way and fade Atlanta as it opens a two-game set against the Nets. Brooklyn is coming off a home loss to the Grizzlies but that was without both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving on the floor after they played big minutes against the Hornets the night previous. For a team like the Nets, who are certainly top-heavy and a little depth-shy, they're going to need to find reasons to motivated themselves over the course of this unique 2020-21 season. I do think the Hawks perfect 3-0 record will garner their attention and we'll see a focused effort as the Nets look to snap their two-game skid. I've sung the Hawks praises in the early going this season and have them pegged as a possible breakout team in the East, but they're not a top contender by any means. That should be evident in Tuesday's game against an elite Nets squad, albeit one that is still looking to find its footing. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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12-29-20 | Raptors v. 76ers -2 | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Raptors certainly haven't looked like a top contender in the Eastern Conference out of the gate this season, going winless through two games. I don't see this as an ideal bounce-back spot for the Raps as they stay on the road to face a 76ers squad that is coming off a blowout loss in Cleveland - a game in which they were without Joel Embiid after he experienced some back tightness in warmups. All indications are he will be back on Tuesday but even if he's not, I like the Sixers chances of handing the Raps a third consecutive loss. With Pascal Siakam still struggling (picking up where he left off in last summer's 'bubble' playoffs) and minimal bench production with key contributor Norm Powell having shot 2-for-16 through two games, Toronto is left looking for answers right now. I simply feel a better opportunity for it to get on track will come back in Tampa on Thursday against the Knicks. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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12-28-20 | Jazz v. Thunder +7.5 | 110-109 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Utah at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Thunder were pegged by many to finish near the bottom of the Western Conference standings this season but they're off to a 1-0 start after defeating the Hornets in their opener on Saturday. I believe OKC is catching too many points again in this spot as it hosts its home opener against the 1-1 Jazz. It's worth noting that the Thunder posted eight blocks in their opener - that's more than the usually defensive-minded Jazz have recorded in their first two games combined (7). The Thunder also notched eight steals in their season debut - while they may lack the talent of a playoff contender, they're hungry and out to prove their many doubters wrong. That's often a recipe for success - at least early in the season. I do think OKC is catching Utah at the right time as the Jazz looked out of sync last time out and star guard Donovan Mitchell has shot just 12-of-39 from the floor through two games - clearly still shaking off the rust after a unique offseason. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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12-27-20 | Mavs +5 v. Clippers | 124-73 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Mavericks as they look to record their first victory of the season on Sunday afternoon. This is obviously a tough matchup against the undefeated Clippers but I expect the Mavs to be up for the challenge after pushing the Clips to six games in last summer's 'bubble' playoffs. Los Angeles shot the lights out in its most recent victory against Denver, hitting 55% overall, 50% from three-point range and 83% from the free throw line. The Mavs have their work cut out for them but should be much tougher on the Clips than they were on the Lakers when they allowed 56% shooting on Friday night. While we won with L.A. on opening night, that was in an underdog role against the rival Lakers. Off consecutive wins to open the campaign, I look for the Clips to sputter here. Take Dallas (10*). |
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12-27-20 | Giants v. Ravens -9.5 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. It seems that most bettors abandoned the Ravens weeks ago but those who have stuck around have been handsomely rewarded as they've reeled off three straight wins and covers over the last three weeks. Here, they appear primed to deliver another lopsided victory, this time at the expense of the up and down Giants. Baltimore endured plenty of adversity due to Covid earlier this season but now find themselves in terrific shape with most of their key cogs on both sides of the football rested and (relatively) healthy. The same can't be said for the Giants, who have had numerous players in and out of the lineup, including QB Daniel Jones who remains less than 100% healthy entering this contest. That stunning upset win in Seattle back on December 6th (we won with New York in that game) may end up being the high point in an otherwise disappointing campaign. We're being asked to lay plenty of points in this contest, but I believe the line could be even higher. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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12-26-20 | Raptors -1 v. Spurs | 114-119 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over San Antonio at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. The best thing for the Raptors may be to hit the road at this point after they opened their season with a disappointing 'home' loss to the Pelicans in Tampa. Toronto simply went ice cold from the field in the second half against New Orleans. I don't expect to see much carry-over from that performance here, however. Meanwhile, San Antonio lit it up in its season-opener against Memphis, scoring 130+ points in the process. Demar Derozan not surprisingly led the way in that contest. I'm not all that high on the Spurs and figure they're in for a bit of a letdown here. I'll bank on the Raps responding with a sharp performance on Saturday night. Take Toronto (10*). |
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12-26-20 | 49ers v. Cardinals -5 | 20-12 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona minus the points over San Francisco at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. This sets up as an ideal matchup for the surging Cardinals, who will be aiming for their third straight victory on Saturday afternoon. The 49ers are likely to be in tough with third-string QB C.J. Beathard taking over under center. He's had plenty of chances as an NFL quarterback and has generally failed miserably. There's little reason to expect a great deal of improvement here with the 49ers offense quite simply broken in what has amounted to a lost season due to injuries and otherwise. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray lit up the 49ers back in Week 1 and projects to do the same here in Week 16 with the Niners missing both Richard Sherman and Jimmie Ward, two key cogs in their secondary. We haven't backed the Cards often this season but this is an ideal spot laying a very reasonable number at home against a Niners squad that's simply playing out the string. Take Arizona (10*). |
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12-23-20 | Hawks -1.5 v. Bulls | 124-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Hawks endured another miserable season last year, ultimately ending up one of only eight teams to miss out on the 'bubble' invite this past Summer. While there will be no shortage of motivation in Atlanta, I believe the Hawks also have the pieces in place to take a significant step forward here in 2020-21. With a number of new faces in the mix there's reason to think that they could struggle in the early going as they try to find some chemistry but the preseason was encouraging as they were competitive in three of four games (in their lone blowout loss Trae Young made just four field goals in 26 minutes of action). I see this as the perfect opening night matchup for the Hawks as they travel to Chicago to face a Bulls squad that is also looking to turn things around following a dismal campaign. For the Bulls, I believe the road back to respectability might take a little longer. There's a lot to be excited about with Coby White ready to emerge as a star in the league and plenty of role players capable of stepping up around him. I'm just not convinced they have the offense to keep pace with the Hawks at this early stage of the season. Atlanta scored 112, 116, 106 and 117 in four preseason games with a real key being the steadying performances of veteran free agent acquisitions Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic off the bench - something it has really been missing in recent years. Behind big opening night performances from Trae Young and Cam Reddish, look for the Hawks to prevail. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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12-23-20 | Florida Atlantic +9 v. Memphis | 10-25 | Loss | -116 | 22 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida Atlantic plus the points over Memphis at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Many will make the case that Florida Atlantic doesn't belong in a Bowl game at all after an embarrassing 45-31 loss to Southern Miss in its regular season finale. Keep in mind, the Owls were essentially playing for nothing in that game with only a (very) outside chance at reaching the C-USA Championship Game. FAU had started the season 5-1 before dropping its final two contests. Still, the Owls check in ranked an impressive 7th in the nation in points allowed per play and I believe they can do enough offensively to shorten this game and let their defense take care of the rest. Memphis didn't have a banner year by its own program's standards, losing three games to finish 3rd in the AAC. QB Brady White topped out at two touchdown passes in his last four games and took a ton of sacks and threw a bunch of interceptions over the course of the season. Meanwhile, the Tigers ground attack wasn't all that dynamic at all, ranking 97th in the country in yards per rush. Look for the Owls to do what they can to muck this one up and ultimately stay inside the number. Take Florida Atlantic (10*). |
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12-22-20 | Clippers +3.5 v. Lakers | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Clippers plus the points over the Lakers at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll take the points with the Clippers on opening night as they look to put an awful preseason behind them against the defending champion Lakers. There will be no shortage of motivation in the Clippers locker room this season after a 2019-20 campaign that turned out to be a disappointment. I think this is the perfect matchup for them to start the season with. While the Lakers showed flashes of brilliance in the preseason, I'm not convinced they're putting too much stock in this opening night result. As they work their way back into form, we'll grab the points with the underdog Clippers in a game where I fully expect them to bring their 'A' effort. Take the Clippers (10*). |
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12-22-20 | Warriors v. Nets -7 | 99-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Golden State at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. While expectations are obviously quite high in Brooklyn with both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving back healthy, I believe they're warranted. Meanwhile, the Warriors season essentially went by the wayside before it even started with Klay Thompson going down with a season-ending injury. While a healthy Steph Curry obviously means Golden State should be improved compared to last year, I don't like the roster they currently have assembled (note that Draymond Green is expected to miss the opener). Maybe Curry shoots the lights out and keeps this one competitive, but I think there's a better chance that the Nets run away and hide with a decisive opening-night victory. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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12-22-20 | Tulane v. Nevada +2.5 | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nevada plus the points over Tulane at 3:30 pm et on Tuesday. Nevada was red hot prior to its stunning loss at Hawaii on November 29th. The Wolf Pack had won five straight games to open the season including a huge victory over San Diego State in a nationally-televised game a week earlier. From there, Nevada stumbled, dropping two of its final three games overall, clearing its bandwagon in the process. So perhaps it's not all that surprising that the Wolf Pack have been installed as short underdogs in this Bowl matchup with Tulane. I still feel Nevada has plenty of upside and will be up for this game on the familiar blue turf in Boise. Tulane had an up and down season, ultimately going 6-5 overall. The Green Wave didn't do anything particularly well, although they did rank a respectable 38th in the nation in points allowed per play. The problem is, Nevada finished 10 spots ahead of them in that category. While the Green Wave did put up better offensive numbers, they also faced a schedule littered with sieve-like defenses in the AAC. Look for Nevada to finish its 2020 campaign strong. Take Nevada (10*). |
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12-21-20 | Steelers -14 v. Bengals | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
AFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cincinnati at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I can understand bettors being hesitant to back the Steelers laying all of those points off back-to-back subpar performances against Washington and Buffalo. However, I expect to see Pittsburgh win this game in a walk as it catches a favorable 'get right' matchup against the lowly Bengals on Monday Night Football. A real key here should be the Bengals absolute inability to get after opposing quarterbacks. Particularly at this stage of his career, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is at his best when afforded time to operate in the backfield, and he should face very little pressure against the Bengals, giving him ample time to find his dynamic wide receiving corps downfield. I'm not convinced we'll see Pittsburgh gain a whole lot of headway on the ground in this one, but that's just fine as it will force it to take to the air where it should feast on a weak Cincinnati secondary that has been torched by big plays time and time again this season. This is a nightmare matchup for the Bengals injury-ravaged offense. They'll turn to QB Ryan Finley here. If you can believe it, he represents a step down from Brandon Allen, who was unable to accomplish anything positive since standout rookie Joe Burrow went down to injury. Finley will be charged with the unenviable task of operating behind an offensive line that has been among the worst in the league at protecting the quarterback. Only one team has allowed more sacks this season. Cincinnati will simply be looking to keep this one respectable but I think it will be hard-pressed to stay inside the number. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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12-21-20 | North Texas +21 v. Appalachian State | 28-56 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Texas plus the points over Appalachian State at 2:30 pm et on Monday. Appalachian State had high hopes entering this season but I don't think playing in the Myrtle Beach Bowl was near the top of its priority list. Meanwhile, North Texas is playing with 'house money' reaching a Bowl game despite a 4-5 overall record. I look for the Mean Green Eagles to put up a fight on Monday afternoon. I do think North Texas has a path to victory in this game with a potent offense and a defense that gets after opposing quarterbacks, ranking 23rd in the nation in sack percentage this season. By contrast, Appalachian State's vaunted defense ranked just 70th in that category. Offensively, UNT is explosive, ranking 28th in the country in yards per pass attempt and 21st in yards per rush. I will admit that the Eagles faced a weaker schedule than Appalachian State but I don't believe there's a great intimidation factor at play here. In a game where both teams have reason to simply go through the motions rather than treat this as a true Bowl experience, I'll grab the generous helping of points. Take North Texas (10*). |
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12-20-20 | Lions v. Titans -9 | Top | 25-46 | Win | 100 | 23 h 16 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. A lot of bettors jumped off the Titans bandwagon following their ugly home loss to the Browns two weeks ago but not us as we cashed Tennessee in last week's rout of the Jaguars. At the same time, we also faded the Lions but unfortunately just missed cashing that ticket thanks to a back-door Lions cover against Green Bay. Here, I won't hesitate to fade Detroit again as it hits the road for a poor matchup against a playoff-bound Titans squad. Tennessee enjoyed a true 'get right' performance in Jacksonville last Sunday and should enter this game brimming with confidence. With the Lions doing nothing to stop or even slow opposing ground attacks, Titans monster RB Derrick Henry should absolutely feast in this game. Meanwhile, QB Ryan Tannehill found his rhythm again in last Sunday's victory and should enjoy another solid day against an injury-ravaged Lions secondary. Ordinarily I would be fairly high on Lions veteran backup QB Chase Daniel (who is expected to start in place of an injured Matt Stafford) but right now Detroit's offense is simply too banged-up with WR Kenny Golladay still sidelined and a potential gaping hole on the offensive line with C Frank Ragnow having suffered a brutal throat injury last week. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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12-20-20 | Patriots +2 v. Dolphins | Top | 12-22 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
AFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on New England plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's not easy to back the Patriots these days but I do believe they warrant support in Sunday's trip to Miami to face the Dolphins. New England's offense is obviously a shell of its former self but the good news here is that you can run on Miami. I'm confident we'll see the Pats stay run-heavy with QB Cam Newton and their stable of running backs in this one and do all they can to stay away from the Dolphins stout secondary. This is precisely the type of game where New England should be able to impose its will not only with its ground game but also with its still-underrated defense. Miami is expected to be without a couple of key cogs offensively with TE Mike Gesicki and WR Jakeem Grant banged-up and questionable to play. Even if they can go it remains to be seen whether they'll be on a snap count or overly effective. QB Tua Tagovailoa threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns last week but completed just 28-of-48 passes and threw an interception and was sacked four times. He benefited from game flow in the fourth quarter of that contest as the Fins were behind by virtually three touchdowns and the Chiefs defense softened considerably. Few will have much interest in backing the Pats off last week's embarrassing nationally-televised blowout loss to the Rams. We'll go the contrarian route here. Take New England (10*). |
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12-19-20 | Boise State v. San Jose State +7 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year. My selection is on San Jose State plus the points over Boise State at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. In what has been a truly unique 2020 college football season one thing has remained the same and that's Boise State contending for a Mountain West Conference Championship. With that being said, I don't consider the Broncos to be the same juggernaut they've been in years' past. I'm not sure we can consider any of their victories this season truly impressive as they faced a rather weak conference schedule. In their lone 'step up' game they got blown out 51-17 at the hands of BYU. Meanwhile, San Jose State did nothing but impress. The Spartans exceeded most expectations by going a perfect 6-0, including impressive wins over San Diego State and Nevada. I certainly expect the Spartans to be a 'tough out' in this contest on Saturday. Only eight teams in the country have allowed fewer points per play than the Spartans this season. Boise State checks in 43rd in that category. There's no question the Broncos do have the more explosive offense but what else is new. I will point out that QB Hank Bachmeier hasn't been the same 'field general' we've become accustomed to seeing running the Broncos offense. He threw exactly one touchdown in three of his four games this season while throwing a pair of interceptions in his last two contests and was sacked eight times overall. The Spartans have the type of defense that can minimize the effectiveness of this Boise State offense, noting they rank 20th in the country in yards per rush allowed and 20th in sack percentage. Take San Jose State (10*). |
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12-19-20 | Washington State v. Utah -10.5 | Top | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Washington State at 1:30 pm et on Saturday. A potential Bowl spot is on the line in this game between Washington State and Utah on Saturday afternoon. That is if either team is even interested in a Bowl game. Nevertheless, I look for the Utes to continue their upward trend with another strong performance in their home finale in this unique 2020 season. There's no question the Utes have been getting stronger with each passing game. In their lone previous home tilt they fell in blowout fashion against USC but that was after months of cancellations and no previous game action. We saw Utah put it all together in a 38-21 road win over a good Colorado squad last week and I look for it to build off that performance here. We were actually on Washington State last week before its game against Cal got canceled due to Covid issues. That leaves the Cougars in a tough spot here trying to once again get amped up for a game that really doesn't mean a whole lot in the grand scheme of things (again, Bowl eligibility doesn't mean quite as much this season with many teams opting out). Cougars QB Jayden De Laura has shown some flashes of brilliance but has also been sacked five times and tossed three interceptions in three games. RB Max Borghi might see game action for the first time this season after a banner 2019 campaign but it remains to be seen how effective he can be against a very stout Utes run defense. Note that Utah checks into this game ranked 55th in the nation in points allowed per play. Take Utah (10*). |
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12-18-20 | BYU +7.5 v. San Diego State | 72-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on BYU plus the points over San Diego State at 5 pm et on Friday. The Cougars are catching too many points in this matchup as they look to hand San Diego State its first loss of the season. Note that the Aztecs rank 215th in the nation in points allowed per game from three-pointers while BYU ranks 66th in points scored per game from three-point range. I do think there's a path to victory for the Cougars in this one as they match up well with the Aztecs in terms of rebounding at both ends of the floor. As you would expect, San Diego State ranks a solid 83rd in the country in total rebounding percentage but BYU is just behind it sitting 87th. It's not as if the Cougars have faced a cupcake schedule either. Here in December they've gone 3-2 in games against USC, St. John's, Utah State, Boise State and Utah. The potential is there for this game to go right down to the wire. Take BYU (10*). |
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12-17-20 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 19 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Las Vegas at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab the points with the Chargers on Thursday night as they head to Las Vegas looking to win back-to-back games for the first time this season. They're catching the Raiders at the right time as Las Vegas has dropped three of its last four games, with its lone victory over that stretch coming by way of a last second hail mary against the still-winless Jets. With Rod Marinelli taking over the defensive reins there's hope that the Raiders can turn things around on that side of the football but playing on a short week, with a number of key cogs banged-up it's highly unlikely we'll see much improvement. Meanwhile, on offense the Raiders continue to trudge along with RB Josh Jacobs less than 100% healthy and now without deep threat WR Henry Ruggs as he was placed on the Covid list. While Ruggs hasn't been a true gamebreaker this season, he does have the ability to stretch out opposing defenses and will be one less downfield threat for the Chargers defense to worry about on Thursday night. Los Angeles is mired in another disappointing season under seemingly clueless head coach Anthony Lynn. With that being said, the Chargers are off a 20-17 win over the Falcons last Sunday with their defense showing signs of turning the corner with Joey Bosa back on the field in recent weeks. There's a lot to like when it comes to the Chargers offense, especially now that RB Austin Ekeler is back. He led the team in rushing and receiving in last week's victory and should be the focal point of the offense again here. This is another showcase game for rookie QB Justin Herbert and I certainly feel he has more upside than Raiders QB Derek Carr at this point. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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12-14-20 | Ravens -3 v. Browns | Top | 47-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Cleveland at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I believe this line will prove far too short as the Ravens look to beat up on the division rival Browns once again on Monday night. Baltimore enjoyed a perfect 'get right' matchup against the Cowboys last Tuesday night, cruising to a lopsided victory. That game gave all of those Ravens that missed time due to Covid protocols to shake off the rust and get back into game action leading into this key showdown with the Browns. Baltimore is virtually back at full strength now with TE Mark Andrews a key piece returning to the offense on Monday night in Cleveland. I look for the Ravens passing game in particular to feast on a Browns pass defense that will once again be without its anchor CB Denzel Ward. You certainly can't sleep on Cleveland these days as the Browns have undoubtedly exceeded expectations and played excellent football this season. But the fact remains they've faced a rather soft schedule and while last week's victory in Tennessee was impressive, QB Baker Mayfield is still best-suited as a game manager but I'm not sure he'll be afforded that opportunity here should the Browns fall behind (as I expect). The Ravens have been tough on opposing running backs and get healthier on the defensive side of the football this week. Look for them to do a better job than most at containing the dynamic RB duo of Hunt and Chubb and take the Browns out of their preferred gameplan. This is a showcase game for Ravens QB Lamar Jackson after failing to perform well in a number of spotlight games this season. I look for him to come up with one of his best efforts of the season. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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12-13-20 | Packers -8 v. Lions | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
NFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Detroit at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is a layup for the Packers, even with the Lions riding high off last week's upset win over the Bears in Chicago. Green Bay cruised to a win over the Eagles last Sunday and now hit the road for a very friendly division matchup in the Motor City. Detroit's defense is suddenly injury-ravaged, sure to miss CB Desmond Trufant in this game. We've yet to see the Lions shut down any opposing ground attacks this season, which really opens the door for a monster performance from the Packers multi-dimensional offensive attack. On the flip side, the Packers are one team that Lions QB Matt Stafford has never really figured out. With WR Kenny Golladay still sidelined, there's little reason to believe Stafford can suddenly come to life against the Packers here. While Green Bay has allowed opposing running backs to gain plenty of ground, that will likely only serve to bait Detroit into a run-first offensive gameplan here, which could lead to some long drives, but few that put 7's on the board. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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12-13-20 | Saints v. Eagles +8 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over New Orleans at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. While most see this as a clear continuation of the Saints red hot run, I see it as a letdown spot coming off last week's divisional road win over the Falcons in Atlanta. In fact, this will be New Orelans' third straight road game in as many weeks - setting this up as a sneaky-tough spot against what is sure to be a highly-motivated Eagles squad coming off last week's 'close but no cigar' loss and no-cover against the Packers. Philadelphia will start Jalen Hurts at quarterback in what could only be considered a spark-inducing move at this point of the season. While Hurts draws a very tough matchup here, I do expect the Eagles to rally around him the rest of the season (assuming he holds onto the starting job). Saints QB Taysom Hill suddenly has a bit of pressure on him with Drew Brees' imminent return. While I won't go so far as to say the Eagles win this game outright, I do look for them to stay inside the number. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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12-13-20 | Jets v. Seahawks -14.5 | 3-40 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over New York at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We won by fading the Seahawks in their upset loss to the Giants last week (we also cashed the 'under' in that game) but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back Seattle laying all of those points on Sunday afternoon against the hapless Jets. New York is in full letdown mode here after inexplicably blowing a prime opportunity to win perhaps its only game of the season last Sunday against Las Vegas. Now the Jets head to the west coast without a number of key cogs on offense - and don't figure to be gift-wrapped this contest the way they were by the Raiders last week. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson finally catches a break after facing a murderer's row of defenses in recent weeks. Note that the Jets rank in the league's bottom-five in quarterback hit-rate and don't figure to put Wilson under much duress on Sunday afternoon. It's almost unthinkable to lay this many points in an NFL games these days but in this particular spot, I'm confident the Seahawks can run away and hide against a Jets squad that is quite simply playing out the string. Take Seattle (10*). |
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12-13-20 | Titans -7 v. Jaguars | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. Backing the Titans in a prime bounce-back spot off last week's beatdown at home against the Browns is not an overly difficult decision. Two of Tennessee's best offensive pieces are in line for big round performances - namely RB Derrick Henry and WR A.J. Brown - off last week's no-show (game script of course had something to do with Henry's awful day). Note that opponents are rushing for north of 150 yards per game against Jacksonville this season. While I do think the Jags can score some points in this game, I'm not convinced they can keep up with the Titans for four quarters, nor do I believe they'll be able to come up with enough big plays on defense late to get the Tennessee offense off the field. This is a key spot for Tennessee to turn the tide and given its success against the Jags over the years, there's little reason to expect its run of dominance to come to an end. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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12-09-20 | Furman +4 v. Cincinnati | 73-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Furman plus the points over Cincinnati at 5 pm et on Wednesday. We've already won once with Furman this season, albeit in a far easier matchup against USC Upstate (the Palladins were laying 18.5 points in that game and won by 28). Here, I'll grab the points with the Palladins as they hit the road to face Cincinnati. The Bearcats are off to a 1-1 start and certainly haven't rounded into form just yet. Through two games (an admittedly small sample size) they rank T224th in the nation in pace rating and T171st in field goal percentage. By contrast, Furman appears to be in midseason form having knocked down 52.5% of their shots. The Palladins also rank 28th in the country in rebounds per game and an impressive 17th in assists. Cincinnati would undoubtedly have more of an edge in this matchup after getting a few more games under its belt but right now, I believe the case can be made for Furman to continue its undefeated start to the season. Take Furman (10*). |
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12-08-20 | Morgan State v. Iona -9 | 83-72 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Iona minus the points over Morgan State at 3 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with Iona as it takes on Morgan State on Tuesday afternoon. The Gaels have split a pair of games against Seton Hall and Hofstra this season. I like the way they've made it tough on the opposition at the defensive end of the floor, recording 12 blocks through two games. Iona certainly needs to do a better job of finishing offensive possessions and taking care of the basketball after yielding 19 steals through its first two contests, but we did see it show some improvement in that regard last time out. Morgan State is 1-1 on the season as well but it's lone victory came over little-known Lincoln (PA), and it came by just eight points in a game where the Bears gave up 90+ points. Through two contests, the Bears have notched just six blocks at the defensive end of the floor. After allowing Lincoln to shoot 50% from the field and get to the free throw line 30 times last time out I suspect they'll have their hands full with Iona here. Take Iona (10*). |
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12-07-20 | Washington Football Team v. Steelers -6.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Washington at 5 pm et on Monday. We played the 'under' in the Steelers odd Wednesday afternoon matchup with a depleted Ravens squad last week but will shift gears and back the Black and Gold on Monday, as they host a suddenly-surging Washington Football Team. There's no question the Steelers are dealing with some key absences with edge rusher Bud Dupree the latest key cog to go down to injury or otherwise. RB James Conner is also expected to miss this game after a positive Covid test. With all of that being said, I like the matchup here. Pittsburgh is playing on a short week but does have the benefit of staying home. Washington has won three of its last five games overall but I think it's important to consider the way its schedule has played out this season. It opened 1-5, including a number of blowout losses against superior opponents including Arizona, Cleveland, Baltimore and Los Angeles (Rams). Since October 25th, the Football Team has faced the Cowboys, Giants, Lions, Bengals and Cowboys again, going 3-2 as mentioned earlier. While I do like some of the pieces Washington has in place, most notably WR Terry McLaurin and RB Antonio Gibson, not to mention a terrific defense. Here, however, I expect it to fall behind early, which would take it away from its preferred gameplan, which involves keeping QB Alex Smith in a game manager role. I look for the Steelers to force Washington to take to the air in this contest, which should severely hamper the Football Team's prospects of staying competitive in this game. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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12-06-20 | Giants +11 v. Seahawks | 17-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Giants as they head to the Pacific Northwest to challenge the surging Seahawks on Sunday afternoon. This line shifted once news came out that Giants QB Daniel Jones would miss this game, with journeyman Colt McCoy starting in his place. While my hopes aren't high for McCoy in this tough matchup, the G-Men have become a run-first operation anyway and I'm confident their defense can hold up well enough to keep the Seahawks within reach on Sunday. Seattle's offense has been doing just enough to win in recent weeks - no longer looking like the explosive unit we saw earlier in the season. This is a sneaky-tough matchup against a Giants defense that has been playing some of its best football and has proven to be an opportunistic group, as evidenced by last week's game-clinching fumble recovery in the final minute against Cincinnati. We've got the Giants going from nearly touchdown favorites a week ago to double-digit underdogs this week - with their playoff hopes still alive. Take New York (10*). |
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12-06-20 | Jaguars v. Vikings -10 | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Vikings as they draw a favorable matchup against the lowly Jaguars on Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville's defense wasn't good to begin with and now they're dealing with a number of key injuries. With no semblance of a pass rush whatsoever, I look for Vikes QB Kirk Cousins to carve them up on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, Jacksonville got shredded for over seven yards per rush by the Browns and their run-first offense last Sunday. We can count on more of the same here as Minnesota RB Dalvin Cook will be salivating at thought of this matchup. Jags QB Mike Glennon did a nice job of nearly leading them all the way back against Cleveland last Sunday but I'm not convinced he can do enough to keep them within the number here. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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12-05-20 | Oregon State v. Utah -11 | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 32 m | Show |
CFB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Oregon State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. Oregon State is undoubtedly in for a letdown this week as it travels to Utah to face what is sure to be a highly-motivated 0-2 Utes squad. Of course, the Beavers staged a huge upset win over in-state rival Oregon last Friday night, rallying to win by a 41-38 score in one of the wildest games of the season. Standout RB Jermar Jefferson went off in that game, rushing for 226 yards and two touchdowns including an 82-yard TD run. If there's one thing the Utes have done well through two games, it's limit their opponents ability to consistently run the football. They've allowed just 181 rushing yards against USC and Washington. While they're not going to eliminate Jefferson entirely, I do believe they can do a much better job than Oregon did of keeping his big play ability in check. Offensively, the Utes have obviously faced a tough situation, with the start of their season delayed due to Covid protocols and their practice time limited. We did see them do some good things in the first half against Washington last week - jumping ahead by a 21-0 score. I'm sure the Utes offense and defense both took the second half collapse against the Huskies personally and we'll see a much sharper effort from start to finish this Saturday night. This is a well-coached Utah squad that should be able to put the disappointment of the 0-2 start behind it and deliver a convincing win over a very beatable Beavers team on Saturday night. Take Utah (10*). |
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12-05-20 | Florida -17.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 31-19 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 42 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Florida minus the points over Tennessee at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'm still not sure the Gators are getting the respect they deserve as all they've done since dropping a 41-38 decision at Texas A&M back on October 10th is reel off five straight wins by 24, 16, 28, 21 and 24-point margins. Now they head to Rocky Top to take on a Tennessee squad that started strong but is now mired in another lost season. I expect Florida to win in a rout. Tennessee has actually played just once since the second week of November, that being a 30-17 loss to Auburn. With QB Jarrett Guarantano struggling as badly as any quarterback in the SEC right now (47-for-76 passing for 448 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions last four games) the Vols will be hard-pressed to find much success in the likely event that they fall behind in this game. Yes, the Vols ground game has been effective but that's only because opposing defenses have employed a run-funnel strategy against them. Florida failed to cover the spread by the narrowest of margins against Kentucky last week as it essentially moved on to this week's game in the fourth quarter of that contest. Here, I anticipate the Gators keeping their foot on the gas for four quarters. Take Florida (10*). |
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12-03-20 | Connecticut +1 v. USC | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
ESPN Game of the Month. My selection is on Connecticut over USC at 7 pm et on Thursday. I like the upside with UConn in this matchup as it catches USC coming off a big early season win over BYU. The Huskies are off to a 2-0 start and have recorded 34 assists and 15 blocks. They've shot just 15-of-45 from three-point range but I certainly anticipate some positive regression in that regard moving forward. USC checks in shooting just 58% from the free throw line and averages fewer than three steals per contest while committing nearly 16 turnovers per game. The Huskies have been far more active defensively, noting the block total earlier and the fact that they're averaging eight steals per game. Take Connecticut (10*). |
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12-02-20 | Incarnate Word v. Wyoming -16 | 83-94 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wyoming minus the points over Incarnate Word at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I see this as a blowout in the making as Wyoming looks to bounce back from a tough two-point loss suffered at the hands of Texas Southern on Monday. This is the perfect 'get right' spot against Incarnate Word, which has split a pair of games this season with its lone win coming off little known Our Lady Lake - a team that lost its opener by 39 points against Rice. IW shot 27-of-41 from two-point range in that victory but was actually outscored 12-9 on second chance points and 21-8 on fast break points. While the Cardinals dominated the paint in that game, that isn't likely to continue here - noting that they were outrebounded 37-28 and outscored 42-26 in the paint in their first game against aforementioned Rice - a 15-point loss. Wyoming has shot well through two games, while also racking up 36 assists. The Cowboys have the talent to stretch out the margin, as evidenced in their season-opening 36-point rout of Mississippi Valley State. Take Wyoming (10*). |
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12-01-20 | Cleveland State +9.5 v. Toledo | 61-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland State plus the points over Toledo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Cleveland State has yet to hit the floor this season while Toledo already has three games under its belt. The common line of thinking is probably that the Rockets have the decided advantage here, as evidenced by the lofty pointspread. I feel that the spread will prove too high, however. Note that Toledo held up well in its three-game in three days stretch to open the campaign thanks in large part to some terrific shooting from beyond the arc. While the Rockets shot a miserable 39% overall against Xavier last time out, they connected on 53% of their three-point attempts. I think it's worth noting that they've recorded a grand total of just six blocks through three contests. While that has had something to do with the fact that they've faced two tough opponents in Bradley and Xavier, sandwiched around a cakewalk against Oakland, I do look for Cleveland State to find plenty of room to operate in the paint in this one. The Vikings have unfortunately been perennial losers in recent years but I do believe the potential is there for some progress in 2020-21 thanks to plenty of returning talent. Toledo is ripe for a letdown here following that near-upset of Xavier. Take Cleveland State (10*). |
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12-01-20 | Inter Milan v. Borussia Monchengladbach +0.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Borussia Monchengladbach +0.5 goals over Inter Milan at 3 pm et on Tuesday. These two clubs played to a 2-2 draw earlier in Champions League action and I certainly believe there's a good chance they finish level again on Tuesday but also feel Gladbach has a good shot at winning outright. I'll grab the 0.5-goal cushion here in Germany. Inter Milan will have Lukaku back on the pitch after he missed last week's disappointing 2-0 loss to Real Madrid. Let's face it, Inter has been highly disappointing in Champions League action to date, collecting just two of a possible 12 points. It's desperation time for the Italian side on Tuesday but this is certainly another tough draw, even with Lukaku in the mix. Gladbach has lost just once going all the way back to September 26th. Inter needs this one more but I don't see Gladbach rolling over as they can use the point(s) as well. Take Borussia Monchengladbach +0.5 goals (10*). |
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11-28-20 | USC Upstate v. Furman -18.5 | 63-91 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Furman minus the points over USC Upstate at 2 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Palladins as they look to move to 2-0 on the season and do so in convincing fashion against USC Upstate. Furman was enjoying a terrific 2019-20 season until Covid shut things down, going 25-8 overall and 13-5 in conference play. Contrast that with USC Upstate, which was one of the worst teams in the nation a year ago, going 1-15 in conference play and 6-26 overall. The Spartans won just once in 16 tries away from home. If their first game this year is any indication, 2020-21 is likely going to be a struggle as well. USC Upstate lost its opener by double-digits against little known Southern Wesleyan. Meanwhile, Furman is coming off a 95-62 rout of Tusculum, but certainly has room for improvement after shooting just 6-of-21 from three-point range and committing eight turnovers. Take Furman (10*). |
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11-27-20 | Oregon -13 v. Oregon State | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Oregon State at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with Oregon in the game formerly known as the 'Civil War' on Friday night in Corvallis. The Ducks are off to a perfect 3-0 start to the season and believe they can work themselves into the College Football Playoff conversation. I'm not sure we've seen their best football just yet, however. Last week they narrowly avoided a disaster in a 38-35 win over UCLA, not even sniffing a cover as a 17.5-point favorite. Here, we're dealing with a more manageable pointspread, and I'm anticipating a much sharper performance from an Oregon squad that even with its flaws has put up a whopping 116 points through three games. The offense should hum against a Beavers defense that hasn't generated much of a pass rush, recording just three sacks through three games. Oregon State boasts a tremendous ground attack led by RB Jermar Jefferson. He has yet to be slowed this season, rushing for at least 120 yards and a touchdown or more in all three games. I think the Ducks can come up with a few big plays against Beavers QB Tristan Gebbia, however. Gebbia has thrown just two touchdowns compared to three interceptions this season and hasn't proven to be any sort of threat with his legs. As good as Jefferson is, the Beavers aren't really built to play from behind and I expect Gebbia's inexperience to show in this matchup. Rallying to beat Cal last week is one thing, but doing so against a powerhouse like Oregon is another matter entirely. Take Oregon (10*). |
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11-27-20 | Abilene Christian v. Austin Peay +2.5 | 80-72 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
CBB Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Austin Peay plus the points over Abilene Christian at 2 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with Austin Peay yesterday as the Governors eked out a one-point win over East Tennessee State. Thanks to getting the victory, that uneven performance shouldn't be difficult to wipe from their minds as they get right back out on the court on Friday afternoon against a quality Abilene Christian squad. The Wildcats absolutely throttled ETSU in their season debut two days ago, pulling away on the strength of 13 made three-pointers. I certainly expect to see some regression from ACU in that department on Friday. Note that while the Wildcats shot better than 56% from three-point range in that season-opening win, they only managed to connect on 40.8% of their field goal attempts overall. We've yet to really see the Governors get going but when they do, they have the potential to bust out in a big way. Terry Taylor already appears to be in midseason form having poured in 46 points while grabbing 28 rebounds through two games. Jordyn Adams had a nice season debut but shot a miserable 2-of-11 from the field and contributed just seven points and four rebounds yesterday. Expect a big bounce-back performance from him on Friday. This is by no means a layup for Austin Peay, but after yesterday's close call, I expect to see it bring its best effort to the floor and that should be enough to earn the cover. Take Austin Peay (10*). |
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11-26-20 | New Mexico v. Utah State +6.5 | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State plus the points over New Mexico at 7 pm et on Thursday. This is by no means a marquee matchup on Thanksgiving Night as two winless Mountain West squads go head-to-head in Utah. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Aggies as this is certainly their best chance at winning a game this season as they face a Lobos team that has been living out of a suitcase all season due to Covid protocols in their home state. While Utah State had its most recent game against Wyoming canceled due to Covid-related personnel issues, we did see it show some signs of life in its prior contest, ultimately falling by a 35-16 score against Fresno State in a game that was still within reach until the fourth quarter. The Aggies obviously have major issues under center with starting QB Jason Shelley being dismissed from the program but if their offense is going to do anything on Thursday night, it's going to be on the strength of their effective ground attack. It's not as if Shelley was playing well - he was sacked six times in his most recent game and had barely managed to complete 50% of his passes while throwing only two touchdowns and two interceptions on the season. RB Jaylen Warren ran for 136 yards on just nine rush attempts in his last game and has three rushing touchdowns in three games this season. The Aggies also boast one of the best kick returners in Mountain West history as WR Savon Scarver will be looking for a record-setting sixth return touchdown on Thursday night. The Lobos were a complete no-show on the road against Air Force last week (we won with Air Force in that game) and while they would certainly love to pick themselves up off the mat here, I'm not convinced they can win outright let alone cover the lofty pointspread. Again, I want to emphasize the fact that New Mexico hasn't played a true home game all season (it's lone "home" game was played at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas against Nevada back on November 14th). I simply feel that at this stage of the season, this is a weary bunch that will be hard-pressed to put its best foot forward, even with the favorable matchup. Take Utah State (10*). |
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11-26-20 | East Tennessee State v. Austin Peay -5.5 | 66-67 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Austin Peay minus the points over East Tennessee State at 2 pm et on Thursday. This looks like a layup and we certainly hope it plays out that way on the court. Austin Peay is one of the favorites, if not the favorite in the Ohio Valley Conference this season. With a ton of returning talent led by standouts Terry Taylor and Jordyn Adams who both declared for the NBA Draft before withdrawing and instead electing to return to Austin Peay for what could be a special season for the Governors, this is a team to watch in the early going. They will need to shake off some rust after posting a narrow victory in yesterday's opener against Nebraska-Omaha. East Tennessee State on the other hand has had to restock virtually the entire cupboard following a tremendous 2019-20 season that had it primed to go bracket busting in March before Covid concerns took hold. It's going to be a bit of a road back for for the Buccaneers and that was certainly evident in yesterday's blowout loss to Abilene Christian. The Bucs shot worse than 30% from the floor in that game. They were blown out despite holding a decisive edge on the boards. While we can expect some improvement in their second game, they're also facing a tougher matchup. While Belmont and Murray State gets much of the press in the Ohio Valley Conference, Austin Peay is set to stake its claim this season. Look for a convincing victory for the Governors on Thursday afternoon. Take Austin Peay (10*). |
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11-25-20 | Drake +5.5 v. Kansas State | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Drake plus the points over Kansas State at 2 pm et on Wednesday. I'll grab the points with Drake in this opening day showdown in Manhattan. The Bulldogs went an impressive 20-4 last season but in recent years it almost seems as if the Missouri Valley Conference has fallen out of favor with most bettors. Consider them an 'under the radar' team as we open what is sure to be a unique 2020-21 campaign. Kansas State is coming off a miserable season and while it will undoubtedly be stronger, I don't expect Bruce Weber's squad to come roaring out of the gates. Drake has the size to match up well with the Wildcats and I look for this one to go down to the wire. Take Drake (10*). |
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11-24-20 | Barcelona FC v. FC Dynamo Kiev +0.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dynamo Kyiv +0.5 goals over Barcelona at 3 pm et on Tuesday. I'll take a shot with underdog Dynamo Kyiv in Ukraine on Tuesday. This obviously isn't the same dominant Barca side we've seen in years' past, despite the fact that it checks in sporting a perfect 3-0 Champions League record. Overall, it has just four outright wins in its last nine matches. It will be without Leo Messi on Tuesday and make no mistake, this isn't an enjoyable trip, nor is it one where a loss or draw would be back-breaking (or surprising for that matter). Kyiv had a tough draw here in the Champions League, landing in a group with not only Barca but Juventus as well. Credit it for putting up a good fight at Camp Nou earlier this month, ultimately falling by a 2-1 score against Barca. That loss was sandwiched around a 2-2 draw against Ferencvarosi and a 2-0 loss to Juventus. We have to take a bit of a leap of faith in this Tuesday match, but I believe there's a good chance we'll be rewarded for grabbing the half-goal. Take Dynamo Kyiv +0.5 goals (10*). |
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11-22-20 | Steelers -10 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. We've seen the Steelers play down to the level of their competition time and time again over the years, and although they check in undefeated here in 2020, that has held true this season - most recently in a narrow victory over Dallas two weeks ago. Here, Pittsburgh draws an extremely favorable matchup against a very green Jaguars squad that is coming off back-to-back tight losses to the Texans and Packers. After narrowly missing out on upset wins in those games, I look for the dam to break, so to speak on Sunday afternoon. Note that Jacksonville is a shell of its former self on the defensive side of the football where it is generating little to no pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Jags are giving up big play after big play to opposing offenses and that should continue against a steadily-improving Steelers offense here. Once Pittsburgh is able to build a sizable lead there's little reason to believe Jacksonville can come up with enough touchdown drives to stay within arm's reach. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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11-21-20 | San Diego State v. Nevada +1.5 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
CFB TV Game of the Month. My selection is on Nevada plus the points over San Diego State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with Nevada in last week's win but non-cover on the road against New Mexico but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Wolf Pack in a much different scenario this week, playing as a short home underdog against San Diego State. This is obviously a huge game in the Mountain West Conference, earning rare national TV billing on CBS. We've been high on Nevada all season and see this as a big-time spot for the Wolf Pack to make a statement. San Diego State successfully bounced back from its surprising home loss against San Jose State the week previous, scoring a 34-10 rout of Hawaii last Saturday. Keep in mind, the Aztecs recorded a whopping seven sacks and forced three turnovers in that game - you would almost think the eventual winning margin would have been much larger based on that. We saw some complete defensive breakdowns from Hawaii in that game, allowing two first quarter touchdown runs of 51 and 62 runs. It's unlikely we'll see those type of breakdowns from a Nevada squad whose longest touchdown allowed this season was just 22 yards back in its season-opener against Wyoming. The Wolf Pack essentially sleepwalked through their victory over New Mexico last week. At times we have seen Nevada suffer brief lapses of concentration this season but I'm confident it will be up for, and hyper-focused on the task at hand against a perennial MWC contender San Diego State this week. Note that Nevada took this matchup by a 17-13 score last year. In what should be a higher-scoring affair this time around, I like the Wolf Pack to repeat that effort. Take Nevada (10*). |
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11-21-20 | East Carolina -3.5 v. Temple | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on East Carolina minus the points over Temple at 12 noon et on Saturday. Few bettors will have much interest in backing either of these one-win squads on Saturday but I like East Carolina's chances of delivering a lopsided victory at Lincoln Financial Field. The Pirates have had some bad breaks on their way to a 1-6 start to the season. After starting 1-1 they suffered controversial losses in back-to-back games against Navy and Tulsa (for reasons I won't get into here). Since then, they've come up empty in three more games although not much more could have been expected against the likes of Tulsa, Tulane and Cincinnati. Here, I look for ECU to take its frustrations out on a hapless Temple squad that is a shell of its former self. The Owls lone victory this season came back on October 17th against South Florida and that feels like it happened ages ago given their current state. Temple is likely down to its fourth-string quarterback this week, and also lost arguably its best offensive player in RB Re'Mahn Davis to the transfer portal earlier this season. As expected, the Owls defense has struggled throughout the season, unable to overcome the key personnel losses from last year's team. They'll be in tough trying to contain a Pirates offense that can score in bunches and features an emerging ground game that managed 206 yards in a blowout loss at Cincinnati last week. Note that Temple ranks 96th in the nation in run defense, allowing 199 rush yards per game on north of 4.5 yards per rush. Once the Pirates are able to build a lead, I'm confident they can ultimately put the game away. Take East Carolina (10*). |
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11-21-20 | Real Madrid v. Villarreal +0.5 | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Villarreal +0.5 goals (-168) over Real Madrid at 10:15 am et on Saturday. |
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11-20-20 | Purdue v. Minnesota +3 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
CFB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Purdue at 7:30 pm et on Friday. |
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11-18-20 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan | Top | 52-44 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
MAC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Western Michigan over Central Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Western Michigan is coming off what some will call a miracle come-from-behind win over Toledo last week so it would be easy to suffer a bit of a letdown here on Wednesday night. I don't see that happening, however, as this is a rivalry game with Central Michigan and in this unique Covid-shortened 2020 campaign, the Broncos might need to run the table to reach the MAC Championship Game. While Central Michigan does check in 2-0 on the season, I haven't been overly impressed by either of its wins. In the Chips' first victory they recorded five sacks, forced a pair of turnovers and dominated the time of possession battle, but still won by just three points over Ohio, at home no less. Last week they rolled to a 40-10 victory over an inexperienced Northern Illinois squad that is essentially playing for next year. CMU will definitely be stepping up in class in this one, having dropped its last two meetings with WMU. The two teams are actually quite similar in a lot of ways, but I like the Broncos offense a little more at this stage of the season and believe their defense can rise to the occasion following a tough game against a good Toledo offense last week. Note that the Broncos will likely be without one of their best defenders in Ali Fayad after he suffered an ankle injury last week. I still like the Broncos here and will consider it a big bonus if he does play. Take Western Michigan (10*). |
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11-17-20 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green +31.5 | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
MAC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Bowling Green plus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Buffalo is the cream of the crop when it comes to the MAC and is already off to a perfect 2-0 start on the heels of back-to-back blowout wins, scoring 40+ points in both contests. With that being said, it's difficult to envision the Bulls truly getting up for this Tuesday night trip to Bowling Green. Note that Buffalo will enjoy a few extra days off after this one, not playing again until next Saturday. It's also worth noting that it's next two games are much bigger ones, particularly it's next one against undefeated Kent State. Bowling Green has been blown out in each of its first two games, although both contests came against upper-echelon MAC squads in Toledo and Kent State. I'm always one to look for the positives, however, and I will point out that the Falcons have allowed just two sacks through two games and have also found some success running the football. I do think that Bowling Green can move the football consistently enough to eat some clock in this game and ultimately shorten proceedings and keep things respectable against a Bulls squad that is simply looking to win and move on. We've seen virtually nothing from the Falcons passing game so far this season even though they have a Boston College transfer at quarterback in Matt McDonald - and he comes in with some knowledge of head coach Scot Loeffler's system with Loeffler having been the offensive coordinator at BC. Again looking at the positives, McDonald threw two interceptions in his Falcons debut two weeks ago but didn't toss a single pick in last week's blowout loss. Take Bowling Green (10*). |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3.5 | 19-13 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Minnesota at 8:15 pm et on Monday. It's not difficult to fade the Vikings in this spot as they lay points on the road following consecutive victories. I can't help but put the Vikes in the 'paper tiger' category and here they'll head to Chicago to face what is sure to be a highly-motivated Bears squad. Note that Chicago has proven to be the kryptonite for Vikes standout RB Dalvin Cook in recent years. Perhaps equally as notable, the Bears have been able to keep WR Adam Thielen at bay in recent meetings as well. Meanwhile, the Vikings defense is one of the league's weakest units, due to injuries and otherwise. While the Bears by no means possess an elite offensive squad, they might just enjoy a breakout performance against Minnesota here. Take Chicago (10*). |
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11-15-20 | Bucs -5.5 v. Panthers | Top | 46-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
NFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is an ideal bounce-back spot for Tom Brady and the Bucs following last Sunday night's shellacking at the hands of the Saints. It doesn't take much to empty an NFL team's bandwagon, particularly from a betting perspective, and that lopsided loss certainly fit the bill. We already won with the Bucs laying points against the Panthers once this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well in this one. Note that the Panthers defense has had a miserable time trying to apply pressure on opposing quarterbacks - truly a shell of this unit's former self. Look for Brady to stay upright for the majority of this game, and ultimately pick apart a very beatable Panthers secondary. On the flip side, the Panthers once again lost do-it-all RB Christian McCaffrey to injury - this time a shoulder - in last week's hard-fought loss in Kansas City. Now it will be up to backup Mike Davis to again shoulder the load, but the prospects of him finding much success against a Bucs run defense that allows under three yards per rush is highly unlikely. Meanwhile, Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater has only shown flashes of brilliance this season, not playing at a high level on nearly a consistent enough basis to keep Carolina in contention in the NFC South. He'll be under duress for much of this contest and even when he is given time, expect the Bucs secondary to offer blanket coverage on the Panthers average receiving corps. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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11-14-20 | Temple v. Central Florida -25.5 | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Temple at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for Central Florida, even as it lays close to four touchdowns. Temple's season is quickly going down the drain. Off to a 1-4 start, there's likely only one potential victory left on its schedule, that likely coming in a matchup with East Carolina. Injuries have played a role, but the simple fact is, the Owls defense hasn't been able to overcome all of the key losses from last year's team and the offense just hasn't been good enough to prevail in shootouts. Here, the Owls will once again be hard-pressed to keep pace with another explosive offense, even if QB Anthony Russo can return from injury (as is expected). Central Florida suffered stunning consecutive losses against Tulsa and Memphis in October but has since responded with back-to-back victories, scoring a whopping 95 points in the process. Now the path is there for the Knights to run the table, even if a difficult matchup against Cincinnati lies in waiting next week (UCF gets that game at home). This is obviously a key matchup for UCF as it looks to make that game against the Bearcats next week matter. While the Knights offense will undoubtedly continue to roll against a very beatable Temple defense, the question is whether UCF's defense can rise to the occasion and help stretch the margin out in this one. I believe it can and will. This is an experienced Knights defense that absolutely manhandled a good Houston offense last week, not allowing a single offensive score until over midway through the third quarter. Yes, they've been involved in plenty of high-scoring shootouts this season, but I'm confident the UCF defense can come up with enough 'splash plays' to ultimately put this game away for good. Take Central Florida (10*). |
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11-14-20 | Nevada -17 v. New Mexico | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -107 | 34 h 41 m | Show |
CFB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Nevada minus the points over New Mexico at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. Nevada is off to a terrific 3-0 start to the season, with all three wins coming in impressive fashion. Yet, the Wolf Pack still find themselves on the outside looking in as far as the AP Top 25 goes, receiving just one vote in this week's poll. That could change after this game, however, as Nevada is in line to deliver another decisive victory against New Mexico. While this is considered a road game, it will actually be played at a neutral site in Las Vegas due to Covid protocols. Speaking of Covid protocols, the Wolf Pack have been forced to practice in two separate units, offense and defense. That's nothing new for Nevada, however, as that's how it prepared for this unique 2020 season over the summer months. We won with the Wolf Pack last week as they got off to a bit of a shaky start but ultimately rolled to a 34-9 win over Utah State. This is a similarly favorable matchup against a winless New Mexico squad that battled hard, but ultimately fell short in last week's 39-33 loss to Hawaii. It's worth noting that the Lobos will be forced to go with their backup quarterback this week after Tevaka Tuioti suffered a concussion in last week's contest. That puts QB Trae Hall in a tough spot this week, as he prepares to face a fierce Nevada defense that seems to be getting stronger with each passing week. Nevada took this matchup 21-10 last year but this is a stronger Wolf Pack squad, and I expect them to stretch out the margin this time around. Take Nevada (10*). |
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11-14-20 | Wake Forest v. North Carolina -12.5 | Top | 53-59 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 40 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Wake Forest at 12 noon et on Saturday. This is the tail-end of a key two-game stretch that North Carolina obviously had circled as must-win contests after dropping two of three previously. The Tar Heels accomplished task number one by brushing aside Duke in blowout fashion last week and I look for them to deliver another lopsided victory against streaking Wake Forest on Saturday. The Demon Deacons started the season with consecutive losses but have rattled off four straight wins since. Note that those four victories came against teams that own a combined 7-18 record. We generally know what we're going to get from the North Carolina offense, but in this particular matchup, I look for its defense to rise to the occasion. We saw signs of that unit turning the corner in last week's win over Duke as it recorded five sacks and generally made life miserable for the Blue Devils offense. This is a similarly-enticing matchup noting that Deacs' QB Sam Hartman has been sacked 18 times in five games against FBS opponents this season. Wake Forest defeated North Carolina by a 24-18 score last season, but September 2019 seems like an awfully long time ago now. I see this as a critical contest for the Tar Heels as they'll face an uphill battle against Notre Dame and Miami over the next couple of games. Look for them avenge last year's loss with a decisive victory. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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11-13-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota +4 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -113 | 35 h 41 m | Show |
CFB Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Iowa at 7 pm et on Friday. I absolutely love the way this Big Ten matchup sets up on Friday night. I'm a believer that the oddsmakers rarely 'get it wrong' but in this particular case, I'm willing to make an exception. Perhaps this line has something to do with the fact that Iowa blew the doors off of Michigan State 49-7 last week. Keep in mind, the Spartans were in a clear letdown spot following an upset win over in-state rival Michigan, at The Big House no less, the previous week. It's also worth noting that the Minnesota bandwagon cleared quickly this season as it dropped its season-opener in blowout fashion against Michigan (in front of a national ABC audience). I like what the Gophers bring to the table here, with an offense that is suddenly humming behind the strong running of RB Mo Ibrahim. Their offense is going to be fine with experienced QB Tanner Morgan at the helm. Defensively, the Gophers clearly have some issues to work out, but I'm not convinced that Iowa is capable of taking advantage. The Hawkeyes are by no means an elite offensive team, even if they did approach the 50-point mark last week. Iowa took last year's meeting by a narrow margin, but I look for Minnesota to get its revenge here. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State -8 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -116 | 35 h 50 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Ball State minus the points over Eastern Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with Ball State in last week's wild 38-31 loss against defending MAC champion Miami-Ohio but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Cardinals as they host Eastern Michigan in their home opener this week. Despite the loss, there was a lot to like in Ball State's season debut. Its offense moved the football at will for much of the game, racking up nearly 500 total yards while going 9-of-15 converting on third down. It was ultimately undone by a late interception and some porous offensive line play as it allowed five sacks. I expect the Cardinals to fare better against an Eastern Michigan defense that managed only one sack for two yards in last week's narrow loss to Kent State. The Eagles were fortunate to stay within arm's reach of the Golden Flashes in that game, largely due to a bit of a sloppy performance from Kent State, which committed nine penalties. EMU only managed 302 total yards, including a miserable 61 on the ground. Ball State should be able to win this game in the trenches. It boasts a terrific ground attack led by RB Caleb Huntley, and is more than capable of putting the game away should it build a second half lead, as I expect. Huntley appeared to be in midseason form last week, running for 130 yards and two touchdowns on just 21 carries. Meanwhile, the Cardinals had two wide receivers top 100 yards through the air, despite QB Drew Plitt completing just 19 passes. Take Ball State (10*). |
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11-07-20 | New Mexico v. Hawaii -15 | 33-39 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Hawaii minus the points over New Mexico at 11 pm et on Saturday. I like the bounce-back spot Hawaii finds itself in here as it returns home to host what could turn out to be one of the nation's weakest teams this season in New Mexico. The Rainbow Warriors are coming off a disappointing blowout loss at Wyoming last week but perhaps that letdown was to be anticipated after they opened the season with an impressive double-digit road win against Fresno State one week earlier. Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro has shown flashes of brilliance but has also been sacked nine times through two games. He should catch a break here as New Mexico didn't record a single sack in last week's season-opening loss to San Jose State. While the Warriors did give up 31 points in last week's setback, it's worth noting that 14 of those points came as a result of two fourth quarter turnovers (one on downs and the other on an interception). Again, Hawaii will be taking a step down in class here against the Lobos. New Mexico was able to move the football with some consistency in an eventual 38-21 loss at San Jose State last week but that was after the Spartans seemed to let their guard down with an early two-touchdown lead. The Lobos defense offered very little resistance with SJSU QB Nick Starkel completing 34-of-47 passes for 467 yards and five touchdowns. They didn't force a single turnover in the loss. Hawaii took this matchup by 14 points last season and I expect it to stretch out the margin even further this time around. Take Hawaii (10*). |
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11-07-20 | Michigan -3 v. Indiana | Top | 21-38 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 27 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Indiana at 12 noon et on Saturday. I love the way this one sets up for Big Blue coming off a very disappointing field goal loss to rival Michigan State last Saturday. Perhaps the Wolverines got caught reading their own press following a much easier than expected rout of Minnesota in their Big Ten opener (we lost with Minnesota in that game). Now that they've been brought back to Earth by the Spartans, I look for a much sharper performance from Jim Harbaugh's squad on Saturday. Indiana is off to a somewhat surprising 2-0 start, scoring a ton of points in the process. I don't have a great deal of confidence in the Hoosiers keeping it rolling here, however. Note that QB Michael Penix has completed just 36-of-62 passes and has been sacked four times through two games. Meanwhile, leading rusher Stevie Scott has carried the football 20+ times in both games, topping out at just 79 rushing yards. The last time these two teams met last November, Michigan won in a rout, 39-14. This one might not be that lopsided, but I'm comfortable laying the points with the Wolverines on the road. Take Michigan (10*). |
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11-05-20 | Utah State v. Nevada -15.5 | Top | 9-34 | Win | 100 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Nevada minus the points over Utah State at 7 pm et on Thursday. While no in-conference matchup should ever be considered a 'gimme', I do believe Nevada is in terrific position to move to 3-0 in Mountain West Conference play and take this one by a lopsided margin on Thursday night. Utah State has been the worst team in the Mountain West through two games, and might just be one of the weakest teams in the nation in this unique 2020 season. While the Aggies have faced a tough draw to open the campaign, going up against Boise State and San Diego State - two of the MWC's best teams - things don't figure to get any easier here. Note that last week the Aggies lone score came on a SDSU defensive breakdown on the final play of the first half. Against Boise State, Utah State didn't score until the final two minutes of the third quarter - when the game was already out of hand. Nevada, meanwhile, checks in a perfect 2-0, winning a tight one against upstart Wyoming before blowing out UNLV last week. I liked the way Nevada put the latter game away late, holding UNLV scoreless in the fourth quarter while scoring 10 points itself. Nevada QB Carson Strong has thrown for 770 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions through two games. There's no real look-ahead at play for the Wolf Pack here as they'll face winless New Mexico next Saturday. Take Nevada (10*). |
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11-04-20 | Ball State +2.5 v. Miami-OH | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Ball State plus the points over Miami-Ohio at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Ball State boasts plenty of upside off a very disappointing 2019 campaign - I say disappointing not because the Cardinals played all that poorly, but because they were unable to come up with enough victories in close games to earn Bowl eligibility. They ultimately went 5-7 with three losses coming by a grand total of eight points. Most of the key pieces are back on offense, where Ball State is loaded with potential entering the 2020 season. While this is a tough opening matchup, it's one the Cardinals need to succeed in if they're going to challenge for a MAC title. The key could be whether or not Ball State can ratchet up the pressure on the defensive side of the football, where they simply had no success getting to opposing quarterbacks a year ago. I believe they can with an experienced group that returns 12 of 15 top tacklers, going up against a Redhawks offensive line that had a tough time keeping their QB upright. Miami-Ohio stunned most by winning the MAC Championship last season. Don't count on a repeat performance in 2020. While a lot of the key players from last year's squad are back, I don't see a great deal of upside or progression on the horizon. This could be a year where the rest of the MAC catches up with the Redhawks and the pendulum swings in the other direction after they won so many tight contests a year ago. Take Ball State (10*). |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants +13 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This week has featured a pair of primetime NFL stinkers with the Falcons outlasting the Panthers in a dull affair on Thursday and the Eagles pulling away from the Cowboys in a football horror show last night. Call me crazy, but I think we may see an entertaining affair between the Bucs and Giants on Monday night. Tampa is in a bit of a tough scheduling spot here, traveling back across the country after posting back-to-back wins over the Packers and Raiders. The Bucs have a big divisional showdown with the Saints on tap this coming Sunday so maybe they park the bus if they build a lead in this one. Meanwhile, the Giants have had an extended week of practice since falling by a single point in Philadelphia a week ago Thursday. New York has very little upside at this time but I will point to a couple of positives. The Giants run defense has been stout and they certainly don't face an intimidating opponent in that sense here. They've also gotten healthier in their receiving corps with Sterling Shepherd back in the mix to compliment Darius Slayton, who has enjoyed a career year so far. The betting majority should be all over the Bucs in this one but we'll go the other way and grab the points with a G-Men squad that has rarely gotten blown out over the course of its 1-6 start. Take New York (10*). |
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11-01-20 | Cowboys v. Eagles -10.5 | 9-23 | Win | 100 | 33 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This is a fairly obvious play but that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. We should see the Eagles defense absolutely feast on an overmatched Cowboys offense here. There's little reason to expect any sort of surprise breakout performance from rookie QB Ben DiNucci - the Cowboys true third-string option under center. He should be under duress against a fierce Eagles pass rush all night long, setting up the potential for plenty of short fields for the Philadelphia offense. For at least this week, we should see the Eagles offense take flight. We saw positive signs in last week's come-from-behind victory over the Giants (we missed with Philly in that game). Now with an extended week of practice, look for them to take advantage of a reeling Cowboys stop-unit. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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10-31-20 | Wake Forest -12 v. Syracuse | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wake Forest minus the points over Syracuse at 12 noon et on Saturday. Syracuse took this matchup a year ago in a wild 39-30 contest. The Orange have fallen on hard times since, however, proving to be one of the weakest teams in the nation in this unique 2020 season. With that being said, Syracuse did stay easily inside the inflated pointspread on the road against mighty Clemson last week, which may give Orange backers a false sense of security here. Wake Forest poses a significant challenge as it rolls in on the heels of three straight wins. The Demon Deacons two losses this season were by no means bad ones, coming at home against Clemson and on the road against N.C. State. The Deacs' ground game continues to churn out big gains while Sam Hartman is a truly underrated college quarterback, having yet to throw an interception this season - the perfect signal-caller for this ball-control offense. Syracuse has little going for it right now and I don't see it picking itself up off the proverbial mat at the Carrier Dome on Saturday. Take Wake Forest (10*). |
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10-27-20 | Ajax Amsterdam +0.5 v. Atalanta | 2-2 | Win | 108 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ajax +0.5 goals over Atalanta at 4 pm et on Tuesday. Solid value being offered with Ajax here as it looks to rebound following a tough 1-0 loss to Liverpool last week. Atalanta is obviously a popular squad right now and quite simply one of the hottest names in all of European football. With that being said, off a 4-0 victory last week I believe it is being overvalued here. Ajax could certainly use a point out of this match, and for that matter so could Atalanta. Both sides would be alright with a draw in this situation although I don't believe an outright Ajax victory is completely out of the question. Take Ajax +0.5 goals (10*). |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -5.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This will be pegged as a defensive showdown between two upper-echelon NFC teams with the Bears checking in at 5-1 and the Rams 4-2. I see this as a bit of a flat spot for Chicago coming off back-to-back wins over the Bucs and Panthers. I simply feel the Bears may be in line for a stinker has as the matchup doesn't set up favorably. The Rams are certainly comfortable playing here at So-Fi Stadium where they've gone a perfect 2-0 and allowed just 26 points in the process. The Bears defense has certainly been stout, but not quite so dominant on the road where they've allowed over 21 points per game. That number shoots up to 24.5 points per contest in domes, where they weren't nearly as stingy in Detroit and Atlanta earlier this season. Simply put, Chicago is a team built for a outdoor environment in my opinion, on both sides of the football. I'm not expecting any sort of resurgence from Bears QB Nick Foles against a fierce Rams defense. He has by all accounts struggled since taking over the reins from an ineffective Mitchell Trubisky. The Rams have shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey to blanket Chicago's lone true offensive star in WR Allen Robinson. While Los Angeles does give up plenty of yardage on the ground, I'm not convinced Bears RB David Montgomery can hit paydirt here as he has just one touchdown to his credit this season. Rams QB Jared Goff once again won't be asked to do a whole lot, but he'll do enough to get the Rams the win and cover. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-25-20 | Bucs -3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I continue to believe that the Raiders victory in Kansas City two weeks ago will ultimately prove to be the high point of their season. This is a nightmarish matchup for Vegas with a possible COVID outbreak moving the game from primetime to the late afternoon window. Note that the Raiders will be welcoming a Bucs squad that seems to be getting better (on both sides of the football) with each passing week. Tampa Bay now has an elite-level defense and should feast on a Raiders offense led by mistake-prone and tentative QB Derek Carr. Meanwhile, Tom Brady and the Bucs offense is set to explode against a weak, undermanned Raiders defense. This game has blowout potential despite the relatively short pointspread. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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10-25-20 | Steelers +1.5 v. Titans | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. Few teams are having as much fun as the Pittsburgh Steelers, who check in a perfect 5-0 on the season, matching the record of the team they'll face on Sunday - the Tennessee Titans. I'll give the Steelers the nod here as they match up well against Tennessee in a number of areas. First of all, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better run defense than that of the Steelers. If any team can at least slow down the beast that is Titans RB Derrick Henry, it's the Steelers. Take away Henry and QB Ryan Tannehill obviously becomes far less effective. LT Taylor Lewan will certainly be a key absence on the Titans offensive line. Meanwhile, the Titans defense, while carrying a very positive reputation, has struggled for much of the campaign. Tennessee has been particularly weak against the run, giving up over five yards per rush and five touchdowns to enemy backs. That absolutely opens the door for a steadily-evolving Pittsburgh offense that has quietly been excelling across the board. Both of these teams are legitimate AFC title contenders, but the Steelers get the edge here as we approach the midway point of the regular season. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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10-25-20 | Bills -10 v. Jets | 18-10 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. There's absolutely no reason to jump off the Jets fade bus at this point as the Bills find themselves in fantastic bounce-back position against punchless Gang Green on Sunday afternoon. We've seen Buffalo's worst over the last two weeks, even if it did hang tough against the Chiefs this past Monday night. Here, we should see the Bills offense absolutely shred a Jets defense that has essentially checked out on the season. On the flip side, the Buffalo defense takes a huge step down in class after facing two of the NFL's best offenses in the Titans and Chiefs. New York's offense is going nowhere with QB Joe Flacco at the helm. While I actually like the matchup for the Jets running game against the Bills, that won't be enough to keep them within arm's reach for four quarters. This could very well be the spot where the Bills do pin back their ears and stiffen up against the run and if that happens this is an absolute rout. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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10-25-20 | Packers -3 v. Texans | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Packers in this clear bounce-back spot against the Texans on Sunday. Green Bay absolutely laid an egg last Sunday afternoon in Tampa, falling in blowout fashion against the Bucs. Of course, they were facing one of the league's best defenses in that game. Here, they'll be going up against one of the worst. The Texans are giving up nearly six yards per rush on the ground and haven't been much better against opposing passing games. Expect Aaron Rodgers and co. to have a field day at NRG Stadium. Meanwhile, the Houston offense had plenty of success last week in Tennessee (we won with the 'over' in that game) but should find the sledding a little tougher here as the Packers have actually been tough on opposing quarterbacks. The Texans had a bit of upside following the Bill O'Brien firing, but that's gone now. I like the Packers to cover the short number. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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10-24-20 | Michigan v. Minnesota +3.5 | 49-24 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Michigan at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I can't help but feel Michigan is overvalued in this nationally televised matchup to open Big Ten play on Saturday night. The line has flipped since opening, and I'm not sure the move is warranted as Minnesota is certainly capable of hanging with Big Blue here in its home opener. Not only was Minnesota a Bowl team last year but it played on New Year's Day, defeating SEC power Auburn 31-24 as a touchdown underdog in the Outback Bowl. Look for the Gophers to enjoy similar fortunes in an underdog role here. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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10-24-20 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech +3.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Texas Tech plus the points over West Virginia at 5:30 pm et on Saturday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for home underdog Texas Tech. West Virginia was in a favorable spot last Saturday and delivered a blowout win over Kansas but that was to be expected. Here, the Mountaineers find themselves in a different situation, favored on the road against what will be a highly-motivated 1-3 Texas Tech squad. The Red Raiders got off to a fine start this season, beating quality FCS opponent Houston Baptist in their opener before giving Texas all it could handle the next week. Since then, it has gotten off track, falling in tough back-to-back road games against Kansas State and Iowa State. With that being said, really how much better could we have expected Texas Tech to perform over the course of this tough early slate. This is a legitimate opportunity for the Red Raiders to get back in the win column before the schedule gets much tougher again with a home date against Oklahoma followed by a road game against TCU. Look for them to take advantage of the opportunity against a beatable West Virginia squad. Take Texas Tech (10*). |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles -4 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up for the Eagles for a number of reasons. First, we saw some signs of life from Philadelphia last Sunday as it didn't fold the tent after falling behind against an elite Ravens squad. In fact, the Eagles were a two-point conversion away from sending the game to overtime. Meanwhile, the Giants are fresh off their first win of the season, coming at the expense of the equally lowly Washington Football Team. Here, New York faces a much tougher challenge against a still-fierce Eagles pass rush that ranks top three in the NFL in quarterback hits. Expect Giants QB Daniel Jones to be under duress all night long. Meanwhile, the Giants defense has been lifeless and essentially sets Eagles QB Carson Wentz up for a breakout performance here, even with TE Zach Ertz sidelined. Ertz hasn't been effective anyway so his absence won't be missed all that much. Despite facing a stable of lower-tier quarterbacks, the G-Men defense have done little to slow opposing offenses. Look for the Eagles to take out their frustrations on Joe Judge's squad here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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10-20-20 | Sevilla +0.5 v. Chelsea | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Champions League Match of the Month. My selection is on Sevilla +0.5 goals over Chelsea at 3 pm et on Tuesday. I'll take a strong position with Sevilla catching a half-goal against Chelsea in Champions League action on Tuesday. While the Spanish side is coming off a tough 1-0 loss to Granada in La Liga action and has gone winless in consecutive matches, I expect it will be up to the challenge against an opponent that draws plenty of motivation here. Chelsea is coming off a disappointing result of its own on Saturday - settling for a 3-3 draw against Southampton. I feel that Chelsea's aggressive style may open it up for some fruitful counter-attacks from Sevilla here and feel we're getting a bargain price to grab the insurance half-goal. Take Sevilla +0.5 goals (10*). |
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10-19-20 | Chiefs -5.5 v. Bills | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Buffalo at 5 pm et on Monday. The reasoning behind this play is fairly simple. I don't believe the Bills defense, which was severely overrated early in the season, can keep the Chiefs at bay for four quarters on Monday night, nor do I believe Josh Allen and the Bills offense will be able to avoid the mistakes that will ultimately result in a lopsided Chiefs victory. Kansas City suffered a clear letdown last Sunday as it wasn't sharp in any facet of the game in a loss to the Raiders. That one stung. Now the Chiefs have had extra time to stew on that loss and I look for them to come up big on Monday in Buffalo. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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10-18-20 | Browns v. Steelers -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. While the Browns are rolling right now I can't help but feel they're ripe for a blowout at the hands of the Steelers on Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are capable of absolutely shutting down Cleveland's ground attack, having allowed just north of three yards per rush this season. Take away the Browns running game and you severely deplete their offense, especially with QB Baker Mayfield banged up. Meanwhile, the Steelers offense continues to round into form. The fact is, Pittsburgh has been one of the three most impressive squads in the NFL in the first month-plus of the season as far as I'm concerned. I look for the Pittsburgh offense to absolutely gash a suddenly overrated Browns defense here on Sunday afternoon at Heinz Field. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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10-17-20 | North Carolina -13 v. Florida State | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -112 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Florida State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with North Carolina in its double-digit victory over Virginia Tech last Saturday and I'll back the Tar Heels again this week as they head out on the road to face 1-3 Florida State. The Tar Heels are one of the hottest teams in the nation in this unique 2020 college football season but it has gone largely unnoticed by most casual observers. The folks that matter have taken notice, however, giving North Carolina a lofty top-10 ranking. I look for the Tar Heels to live up to expectations for another week. Perhaps some bettors were put off by the Heels in their narrow four-point win as a two-touchdown favorite against Boston College two weeks ago - their only road game so far this season. UNC was clearly almost caught flat-footed in that contest but won't be caught off guard against a storied Florida State program here on Saturday. I don't believe the Seminoles have the personnel to keep up with the Tar Heels for four quarters. We saw UNC take Virginia Tech far away from its gameplan last Saturday and I expect a similar story to unfold here. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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10-17-20 | Texas A&M -4.5 v. Mississippi State | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas A&M minus the points over Mississippi State at 4 pm et on Saturday. Mississippi State came up with a huge upset win on the road against LSU in its season-opener but has accomplished very little since, dropping back-to-back games against Arkansas and Kentucky. I don't expect the Bulldogs to pick themselves up off the mat in this clash with Texas A&M. The Aggies are fresh off a big win over Florida last Saturday. Their lone blemish is a loss at Alabama - albeit in blowout fashion - back on October 3rd. This is the start of a stretch of three straight truly winnable games for Texas A&M and I look for it to make the most of the opportunity. There's a bigger gap between these two SEC squads than the oddsmakers are accounting for. Take Texas A&M (10*). |
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10-17-20 | Kentucky v. Tennessee -6 | 34-7 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Kentucky at 12 noon et on Saturday. We won by fading Tennessee in an eventual lopsided loss at Georgia last week but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Vols this week as they return home to host Kentucky in SEC action. Kentucky is fresh off a 24-2 rout of upstart Mississippi State. Keep in mind, the Wildcats are still just 1-2 on the season, including a 29-13 loss at Auburn in their lone previous road game. The Vols meanwhile check in 2-1 with victories at South Carolina and at home against Missouri with the latter coming in blowout fashion. Off a poor showing against an elite Georgia defense last week I look for Vols QB Jarrett Guarantano to turn in a strong performance here. I don't see the Wildcats offense keeping pace for four quarters and believe we're dealing with a very reasonable pointspread here. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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