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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-08-19 | Patriots -1 v. Lions | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England minus the points over Detroit at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. All indications are that the Patriots are putting an emphasis on winning this week's preseason opener in Detroit, or as much of an emphasis as you can expect for an exhibition game anyway. After going 3-5 away from home last season, New England is focused on preparing the right way and delivering a complete performance against the Lions. I don't expect Bill Bellichick to make anything easy on his former defensive coordinator - now Lions head coach Matt Patricia. There's never a whole lot to go on this early in the preseason, but here I do expect to see the Pats put their best foot forward. Take New England (10*). |
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07-27-19 | Saskatchewan v. BC +3.5 | Top | 45-18 | Loss | -114 | 97 h 59 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Year. My selection is on B.C. plus the points over Saskatchewan at 7 pm et on Saturday. Saskatchewan defeated B.C. just last week but that was a strange game as the Lions actually outgained the Riders in terms of total yardage and had a decisive edge in first downs as well. Save for a stinker against the Eskimos two weeks ago, Lions QB Mike Reilly has looked more and more comfortable running the offense, last week completing 31-of-40 passes for 346 yards while also running for 32 yards and a score. RB Brandon Rutley enjoyed a breakout performance of sorts against the Riders, running for 73 yards on 13 carries. While the Lions did give up a whopping 38 points in last week's loss, they actually held the Riders offense out of the end zone from just over midway through the first quarter until the final two minutes of the third quarter. Things came unglued in the fourth quarter but B.C. can hang its hat on the fact that it allowed Riders QB Cody Fajardo to complete only 17 passes and picked him off twice. Outside of that victory, Saskatchewan's only other win this season came against the lowly Argos, who are arguably worse than the Lions. B.C. has now outgained three of its last four opponents and I believe it's only a matter of time before it all comes together for this squad. While Saskatchewan has owned this series recently, it's been a long time since the Riders were last favored in a game played here in Vancouver. I simply feel the oddsmakers are undervaluing what will be a desperate Lions squad on Saturday. Take B.C. (10*). |
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07-23-19 | Cubs v. Giants +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco +1.5 runs over Chicago at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. I have no problem paying the tariff to back the Giants plus an insurance run as they continue their series with the Cubs on Tuesday night. Factoring in the +1.5 run-line, the Giants are now 13-1 over their last 14 games and 24-5 over their last 29 games going back to June 20th. We have a terrific pitching matchup on tap tonight with Yu Darvish going for the Cubs against Madison Bumgarner of the Giants. I do feel that Bumgarner has a bit of a motivational edge here as he tries to help the Giants into the Wild Card hunt while also potentially auditioning for other teams prior to the trade deadline. Behind Bumgarner is one of the best bullpens in the league. With San Francisco suddenly heating up at the dish as well, I'm willing to back them even off a win in the opener of this series last night. Take San Francisco +1.5 runs (10*). |
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07-18-19 | Toronto v. Calgary -11.5 | 16-26 | Loss | -108 | 32 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Calgary minus the points over Toronto at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Argos are off to one of the worst starts we've seen in recent CFL memory and I don't envision a turnaround in Calgary on Thursday night. Toronto lost by "only" 27 points last week in Winnipeg but the damage could have been far worse were it not for the Blue Bombers taking their foot off the gas at halftime. Winnipeg jumped ahead 31-0 before the Argos staged a mini-rally (if we can even call it that) in that game. While Toronto's offense has shown some improvement, it will run into a tough opponent in Calgary this week. The Stampeders have been doing an excellent job of getting after opposing quarterbacks, racking up nine sacks over their last two games alone. While they did give up 30 points in a loss in Hamilton last week, they actually held Ti-Cats Jeremiah Masoli to under 200 yards passing and limited the Hamilton ground game to fewer than 70 rushing yards. They should feast on a one-dimensional Argos offense that hasn't shown any ability whatsoever to run the football. Offensively, the Stamps aren't at full strength with QB Bo Levi Mitchell and RB Don Jackson sidelined. QB Nick Arbuckle did settle in last week, however, throwing for 368 yards on 24 pass completions. There's reason to believe they'll be able to get their ground game going here as well, considering Toronto is allowing over six yards per rush this season. Take Calgary (10*). |
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07-16-19 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -1.5 | 10-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston -1.5 runs over Toronto at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Red Sox bounced back from a tough series against the Dodgers, holding on for a 10-8 win over the Blue Jays last night. Boston didn't get great pitching in last night's game but still managed to win by multiple runs. Tonight, I look for it to get a fine effort from newly-acquired Andrew Cashner as he checks in having worked at least six innings in five straight starts. It's also worth noting that the Red Sox will get their second look at rookie Jacob Waguespack tonight, after coming out on the losing end, plating three runs over five innings against him back on July 3rd. I have no problem laying the extra run with the Sox here. Take Boston (10*). |
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07-13-19 | Calgary v. Hamilton -4 | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Hamilton minus the points over Calgary at 7 pm et on Saturday. It's been a long time since the Ti-Cats defeated the Stampeders but it's also been a long time since they've been favored in this matchup. Injuries on Calgary's side have opened the door for the Ti-Cats to be favored here, and I look for them to take advantage. The Stampeders are coming off a blowout win in Saskatchewan last week as they caught the Riders flat-footed. Keep in mind, QB Nick Arbuckle completed just 19 passes in that victory. The defense did most of the heavy-lifting. The Ti-Cats are coming off a tough loss in Montreal last week. They certainly weren't sharp in that one, perhaps suffering a letdown following three straight wins to open the season. I do look for them to bounce back here. It's worth noting that they're expected to have WR Bralon Addison back on the field. He's been a breakout star this season but was injured and missed last week's loss. Take Hamilton (10*). |
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07-11-19 | Edmonton v. BC +3.5 | Top | 33-6 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on B.C. plus the points over Edmonton at 10 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab the points with the Lions in this one as they look to avenge a 39-23 loss suffered against the Eskimos earlier this season (we won with Edmonton in that game). We successfully faded the Lions last week as well, grabbing the points with the Argos in a game that went right down to the wire. It wasn't a stellar performance from B.C., but it did manage to string together a pair of second half touchdown drives and didn't allow an offensive touchdown until the final minute of the fourth quarter. Now the Lions return home for the first time since their season-opening loss to the still-undefeated Blue Bombers. I'm not sure the Eskimos bye week came at the best time as they were off their first loss of the season - a game in which they failed to score an offensive touchdown. Keep in mind, Edmonton hasn't won here in Vancouver since October of 2017, when it needed overtime to secure the victory. QB Mike Reilly is getting more comfortable in the Lions offense with each passing week. I like the Lions chances here. Take B.C. (10*). |
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07-06-19 | BC v. Toronto +8 | 18-17 | Win | 100 | 33 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over B.C. at 7 pm et on Saturday. We cashed a ticket fading the Argos on Monday in Regina but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back Toronto as it returns home to host winless B.C. The Lions should bounce back here, but should is the operative word. The transition to Mike Reilly hasn't really been a smooth one and let's face it, the B.C. defense has been awful when it's mattered most. Last week the Lions gave up two touchdowns in the final two minutes to fall by a 36-32 score in Calgary, after the Stamps lost QB Bo-Levi Mitchell to injury earlier in the game. Toronto hasn't looked good through two games and now it will have to go without QB James Franklin for a while. I still think the Argos have enough talent to compete, however, and it's surely worth noting that they were at least competitive here at home last season, going 4-5 SU. That included a victory over the Lions in an underdog role. The underdog has gone 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series. Take Toronto (10*). |
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07-05-19 | Winnipeg +4 v. Ottawa | 29-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg plus the points over Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I think the Redblacks will be hard-pressed to win this game let alone cover the number. Both teams check in with flawless records but the Blue Bombers have a lot more upside in my opinion. I actually think Winnipeg could have inflicted a lot more damage against Edmonton last week but because it succeeded in holding the Eskimos to field goals on most drives, it didn't need to really keep its foot on the gas offensively. QB Matt Nichols didn't have a great game, completing only 13 passes, but again he didn't need to be perfect. I expect a much bigger game from him stat-wise on Friday night. The Redblacks two victories have masked the fact that they've allowed a whopping 69 points through two games. They've allowed at least 29 points in four of their last five meetings with the Bombers and haven't defeated Winnipeg here at home since 2015. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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07-04-19 | Hamilton v. Montreal +12.5 | 29-36 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal plus the points over Hamilton at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. This line hasn't budged here on gameday so I'll go ahead and jump in with a play on the Alouettes now as I do expect them to turn in a far better showing than we saw last week in Hamilton. The Tiger-Cats haven't started a season with four straight wins since way back in 1989. The Als will certainly be highly-motivated to keep that streak going, noting that they're off to an 0-2 start and playing their home opener here on Thursday. Of note, the Ti-Cats will be without one of their best weapons on offense in WR Bralon Addison. Look for the Als to show up and hang inside the inflated number. Take Montreal (10*). |
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07-01-19 | Toronto v. Saskatchewan -10 | 7-32 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Saskatchewan minus the points over Toronto at 7 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the points with the Riders as they aim for their first win of the season against Toronto on Monday. The Riders may be 0-2 but they've been competitive in both losses, both coming on the road against quality opponents in Hamilton and Ottawa. Now they get a chance to face one of the East's weakest teams in the Argos. Toronto was handed a 64-14 beatdown against the rival Ti-Cats last week. It was a truly terrible showing for the Argos in their home-opener and while they'll undoubtedly turn in a better effort on Monday, I'm still not sure it will be enough to stay inside the number. The Riders simply have more upside on both sides of the football right now, even with QB Zach Collaros sidelined. Cody Fajardo is no rookie north of the border, and he certainly showed his ability in last week's shootout with the Redblacks. Take Saskatchewan (10*). |
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06-27-19 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg -4.5 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg minus the points over Edmonton at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. We've cashed tickets with both the Eskimos and Blue Bombers this season but I believe Winnipeg is the way to go as it hosts Edmonton on Thursday night. The Blue Bombers were certainly undervalued entering the season as they were installed as short underdogs in B.C. to open the campaign. The Bombers turned in about as complete of an effort as you could possibly expect in that game. After enjoying their bye week, they'll have no shortage of motivation here as they face the 2-0 Eskimos. Edmonton has had the benefit of playing its first two games at home, and against a pair of squads working out some major kinks in the Alouettes and Lions. In their lone previous contest, we didn't see the Bombers allow an offensive touchdown until well into the third quarter. Look for another superb effort from Winnipeg here. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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06-26-19 | Padres v. Orioles +1.5 | 10-5 | Loss | -126 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore +1.5 runs over San Diego at 3:05 pm et on Wednesday. You would be hard-pressed to find many bettors looking to back the Orioles on Wednesday but I'll gladly go 'contrarian' and support them with an insurance run in my back pocket. Padres starter Matt Strahm checks in 2-6 with an ERA approaching five this season. You would have to go back eight starts, all the way to May 2nd to find the last time he was on the hill for a Padres win by multiple runs. Dylan Bundy has been a punching bag for the Orioles but here he faces a San Diego club that owns a losing record away from home, where it allows nearly six runs per contest. I look for the O's bats to keep them in this one. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-23-19 | Angels +1.5 v. Cardinals | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over St. Louis at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the insurance run with the Angels as they look to avoid the three-game sweep in St. Louis on Sunday night. Note that runs have come at a premium in both Tyler Skaggs' road starts and Miles Mikolas' home starts this season. Both pitchers have seen an average total of just seven runs scored in those settings. The Cardinals are 8-7 with Mikolas on the mound this season but they've actually been outscored by the opposition by an average margin of 3.93-3.87 in those 15 contests. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-22-19 | Hamilton v. Toronto +4.5 | 64-14 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Hamilton at 4 pm et on Saturday. The Argos have undergone a lot of change since last season but that's not a bad thing as their 2018 campaign was an absolute train-wreck. I expect them to take the field with renewed optimism in their 2019 opener and I can't help but think this line has gotten out of whack. The Ti-Cats are coming off a win over the Roughriders in their opener last week but it's worth noting they didn't find the end zone until the second quarter, and then never scored another offensive touchdown in the game. Just not sure we ever see them pull away in this one. Take Toronto (10*). |
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06-21-19 | BC v. Edmonton -4 | Top | 23-39 | Win | 100 | 47 h 27 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton minus the points over B.C. at 9 pm et on Friday. The Mike Reilly era in B.C. got off to a tough start last week as the Lions fell by a 33-23 score at home against the Blue Bombers (we won with Winnipeg in that game). While most expect the Lions to bounce back here with Reilly facing his former team, the line tells a different story with the Eskimos favored. I believe the oddsmakers have got it right as Edmonton looks to make it two in a row at home to open the season. I really think that the Eskimos are a bit of an overlooked commodity at this point. QB Trevor Harris always seems to carry a big chip on his shoulder and got his campaign off to a tremendous start last week, throwing for 447 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran for the game-winning touchdown. Keep in mind, it wasn't until the third quarter that the Lions actually scored an offensive touchdown last week against Winnipeg. That proved to be their only offensive touchdown of the game. There are going to be some kinks to work out as Reilly learns the B.C. offense (he threw a pair of interceptions last week). The Eskimos gave up only one touchdown in the first three quarters of last week's game against the Alouettes. While they'll be facing a much tougher challenge here, I'm confident they'll be up for it. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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06-21-19 | Astros +1.5 v. Yankees | 1-4 | Loss | -142 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston +1.5 runs over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Astros certainly appear to be reeling right now, after starting the week with a sweep at the hands of the Reds they opened their showdown series with the Yankees by dropping a 10-6 decision on Thursday night. I do expect Houston to bounce back here but will grab the insurance run, simply out of respect for the surging Yankees offense. Yankees starter James Paxton is thought of as an elite pitcher but he's been pretty ordinary this season, recording an ERA just shy of four. Astros starter Brad Peacock hasn't been great over his last two outings, but had previously allowed a grand total of five earned runs over a six-start stretch. Take Houston +1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-15-19 | Winnipeg +1 v. BC | 33-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winnipeg plus the points over B.C. at 10 pm et on Saturday. I'll fade the big offseason signing made by the Lions in QB Mike Reilly. The Blue Bombers have a pretty good QB of their own in Matt Nichols. I simply feel that Winnipeg is further along in its progression right now. The Bombers didn't exactly live up to expectations a year ago but I'm willing to 'buy low' on them here as they open their season in Vancouver. Look for a big game from the Bombers ground attack with their defense taking care of the rest. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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06-15-19 | Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Toronto at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Astros are back in a playable range on Saturday as they aim to follow up on last night's blowout win over the Blue Jays. Few are going to give much thought to backing Framber Valdez here but the fact is his first start of the season was a beauty against the Orioles, even though the Astros fell short. Valdez has posted a 2.73 ERA in 33 innings of work this season. Meanwhile, Jays starter Clayton Richard continues on the downward spiral of his career. He continues to get knocked around and we should see nothing different on Saturday against the hot-hitting Astros. Richards owns a 1-4 team record in his last five starts with all four of those losses coming by at least two runs. Take Houston -1.5 runs (10*). |
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06-13-19 | Raptors +3 v. Warriors | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 48 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Golden State at 9:07 pm et on Thursday. The Raptors wasted an opportunity to win an NBA title on their home floor on Monday night but I don't expect them to do the same in Oakland on Thursday night. Toronto didn't put forth its best effort but perhaps that was to be expected against a desperate Warriors squad in Game 5. This was never going to be easy and the Raps are fully aware of that. I like the resolve we've seen from Toronto in these playoffs, particularly on the road, and I'm confident we'll see it ultimately prevail in Game 6 on Thursday. It's worth noting that very little went right for the Raps yet they still managed to hold a six-point lead late in the fourth quarter on Monday. Danny Green, Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry combined to shoot 1-for-14 from beyond the arc in that game. In fact, the entire team connected on just eight three-pointers. Toronto did hold a considerable edge at the free throw line in that game - something that we'll likely see reverse here in Oakland. With that being said, I look for the Raptors to do a better job of locking down defensively on Klay Thompson, forcing Steph Curry to shoulder most of the load in this one. With Kevin Durant sidelined again, the Warriors come up short here. Take Toronto (10*). |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Toronto at 9:07 pm et on Friday. Everyone is quick to hand this series to the Raptors following their dominant victory in Game 3 in Oakland on Wednesday night. While we did win with the Raptors in that game (and the Warriors in Game 2), I'm not about to consider this series over and done with. The Warriors are a veteran team with a championship pedigree and I fully expect to see them bounce back and deliver their best effort of the series on Friday night. Of course Golden State knows that it needs to get a win here as earning a victory in Toronto in Game 5 will be a tall task. The Warriors got nothing from anyone not named Steph Curry in Game 3, with Shaun Livingston (in place of Klay Thompson) and DeMarcus Cousins really disappointing with a combined 2-for-11 shooting effort. There's a good chance Thompson will be back for this one, but even if he's not, I still expect a lot more from Golden State across the board. The Raptors aren't going to shoot the lights out again, nor do I expect them to convert at such a high rate from the free throw line again (20-of-21 in Game 3). This is a game the Warriors need, and when you consider the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 9-0 against the spread in the Raptors last nine contests, I'll lay the points with Golden State here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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06-05-19 | Raptors +6 v. Warriors | 123-109 | Win | 100 | 48 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Golden State at 9:07 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Warriors in Game 2 of this series on Sunday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Raptors as the scene shifts to Oakland on Wednesday. Note that this series is even at three games apiece going back to the start of the 2017-18 season with the underdog going 5-1 ATS over that stretch. The Raptors managed to win outright here in Oakland in their lone regular season meeting this year, despite missing Kawhi Leonard. The Warriors had the services of Curry, Thompson and Durant for that one. We're not going to see the Raptors shoot as poorly as they did in Game 2 on Sunday. The Warriors played with a real sense of urgency at the defensive end of the floor in that game. Here, I look for Toronto to respond with a strong defensive effort of its own. Golden State may get Kevin Durant back in the lineup for this one, but I believe that's already been factored into the line. Most are quick to count out the Raptors following Sunday's poor showing. I expect that result to strengthen their resolve heading into Game 3. Take Toronto (10*). |
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06-02-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Toronto at 8:07 pm et on Sunday. The Raptors jumped ahead early and never looked back in the series opener on Thursday delivering the first blow in what I expect to be a long, back-and-forth series. I don't believe the Warriors will be rattled by that result. Golden State didn't play its best game on Thursday and was ultimately undone by a career night from Pascal Siakam. Look for Steve Kerr to make the necessary adjustments as far as the x's and o's go, particularly from a defensive standpoint. I look for the Warriors to bounce back and even this series up at one game apiece as the series shifts back to Oakland. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-30-19 | Warriors +1.5 v. Raptors | 109-118 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Toronto at 9:07 pm et on Thursday. I'll keep it simple in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night. The Raptors are going to have an awfully tough time getting back up to the level that saw them rally from a big double-digit deficit in the second half of their series-clinching win against the Bucks last Saturday night. The Warriors have been off for what seems like an eternity now but I don't expect rust to play much of a factor. I'm sure they can't wait to get back on the floor and I actually like the fact that they open the Finals on the road for a change. A date with Kawhi Leonard and the red hot Raptors is not difficult at all to get up for and I think we'll see a complete effort from Golden State here, especially after dropping both regular season meetings with Toronto. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-25-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -106 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Toronto at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. Jumping out to a big early lead might have been part of the gameplan, but it certainly didn't work out in the Bucks favor on Thursday night as they let the Raptors back into the game and then Toronto took full control thanks to an all-world performance from Kawhi Leonard in the fourth quarter. While the Raptors bandwagon has filled up in a hurry, I'm not sure that's the right move from a betting perspective as the scene shifts back to Toronto on Saturday. Yes, the Raptors fan base is extremely hungry to watch their team finally break through and advance to the NBA Finals and the place will most definitely be 'rocking' on Saturday night. That doesn't guarantee a win, however. The Bucks clearly felt the pressure once things tightened up in Game 5 and I expect the same thing to happen to the Raptors with the weight of seemingly the entire city on their shoulders on Saturday. Going into this series I would have been shocked if you told me that the Bucks wouldn't win a game in Toronto. This is a team that has proven it can win on this floor this season, and one that has proven it can rise to the occasion in hostile environments. This had the feel of a series that was going to go the distance after Game 4 but that sentiment has changed with the Raptors stealing Game 5 on the road. Keep in mind, the Bucks were favored in the last game played on this floor. I'll grab the points with Milwaukee as its season hangs in the balance. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -7 | 105-99 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Toronto at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. This is the simple call in Game 5 of this series as the straight-up winner has covered the spread in all of the Bucks playoff games to date and I'm quite confident we'll see Milwaukee bounce back in a big way back at home following a really poor performance in Game 4. The Raptors did what they had to do to even this series up and put some pressure on the Bucks but I'm not sure it's sustainable. Kawhi Leonard has done it all for the Raptors but wasn't called on quite as much in Game 4. He'll be the focal point again in Game 5 but I look for the Bucks to make the necessary adjustments to minimize his impact (as much as possible). I also think we'll see the Milwaukee offense shake loose after getting frustrated by the Raptors defense in Toronto. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-21-19 | Bucks -2 v. Raptors | 102-120 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Toronto at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. This is going to be a popular play on Tuesday but that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. I actually don't believe this game is going to be close. The Bucks turned in a pretty awful performance on Sunday night, yet they still managed to push the Raptors to double-overtime and it took a superhuman effort from Kawhi Leonard to earn Toronto the win. Here, I expect to see the Bucks to get off to a much stronger start, and stay composed for four quarters, unlike we saw on Sunday. The Raptors were in a must-win position in Game 3 and while they still desperately need to even this series before the scene shifts back to Milwaukee for Game 5, I'm not sure how much more they have in the tank. Note that the Bucks have played exceptionally well on the road this season, going 31-15. The straight-up winner has covered the spread in all 12 Bucks playoff games to date and I expect that to hold true with Milwaukee winning here. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-16-19 | Orioles v. Indians -1.5 | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland -1.5 runs over Baltimore at 6:10 pm et on Thursday. I don't often lay 1.5 runs regardless of the situation, but I'm willing to make an exception here. Dan Straily really has no business being in a big league rotation. He's been lit up consistently this season. He hasn't lasted through the fifth inning in any of his last three starts, giving up 11 earned runs in his last 8 2/3 innings of work. Now he faces a Tribe lineup that busted out with a 9-0 win over the White Sox last time out to shake out of a bit of a funk. Trevor Bauer goes for the Indians and while he hasn't pitched well against Baltimore over the course of his career, he catches the 14-28 Orioles at a good time. The O's have plated three runs or less in five of their last six games and put up only five runs in their other contest over that stretch. This has the makings of a lopsided affair, as indicated by the run-line juice. Take Cleveland -1.5 (10*). |
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05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6 | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Toronto at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Bucks got off to a slow start and fell in blowout fashion in their series opener against the Celtics last round but I expect a different story to unfold here as they host the Raptors in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Toronto is just two days removed from a thrilling seventh game victory over Philadelphia. The Raps didn’t exactly look like road warriors in that series against the 76ers and now they’ll face an even tougher challenge against a Bucks squad that can really get out and run at home. While I do believe this will be a competitive series and that the Raptors are capable of winning a game on this floor, I just don’t think this is the spot. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-12-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Toronto at 7 pm et on Sunday. Travel day on Sunday. Full writeups will return on Monday. The Raptors rarely make things easy on themselves in the playoffs and I expect nothing different here. We won with the 76ers in Game 6 on Thursday night and here I simply believe they’re being given too big of a cushion from the oddsmakers. Look for a competitive affair for four quarters. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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05-10-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -7 | 118-113 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Golden State at 9 pm et on Friday. The books have certainly adjusted the point spread accordingly with Kevin Durant ruled put for the Warriors but that won’t keep me from backing the Rockets once again here. We won with Houston in Game 5 as the Rockets just snuck inside the number. This time around I’m anticipating a more lopsided affair in favor of the home side. I’m just not sure we’ll see Golden State get much more than the 52 combined points it got from Steph Curry and Klay Thompson in Game 5. Knowing that they have Game 7 at home on deck i’m just not sure the desperation will be there for the Warriors. The intimidation factor really does scale back with Durant sidelined. Look for Houston to win this one going away. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +2 | 101-112 | Win | 101 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We’ve been on point over the last two games of this series cashing with the Raptors in Game 4 and the over in Game 5. I’ll go with the 76ers in Game 6 on Thursday night as I fully expect to see them turn in their best effort of the series with their backs against the wall. This has had the look of a seven-game series all the way and while the Raptors certainly came up big with a blowout win last time out that was a pretty desperate spot for them as while the series was tied they simply couldn’t afford to go down 3-2 heading to Philadelphia. Expect the 76ers to play with that desperation On Thursday. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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05-08-19 | Rockets +6 v. Warriors | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. I do believe the Rockets are capable of winning a game here in Oakland in this series and having evened things up at two games apiece, Wednesday could be their night. I'm really not sure the Warriors are going to perform much better offensively after getting 64 points from Steph Curry and Kevin Durant in a four-point loss in Game 4. Sure, they can get more from Klay Thompson but I do expect to see Houston do a good job once again of limiting the Warriors ability to get out and run and generate open looks. Keep in mind, the Rockets won twice on this floor during the regular season. I'll grab all the points I can get with Houston in this pivotal Game 5. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-05-19 | Raptors +2 v. 76ers | 101-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Philadelphia at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. Everyone has seemingly left the Raptors for dead after dropping back-to-back games to go down 2-1 in this series, with their Game 3 loss coming in particularly uninspiring fashion. I do expect to see Toronto bounce back on Sunday afternoon, however. Kyle Lowry in particular is in desperate need of a response following a complete no-show in Game 3 and I'm confident we'll see him come up big in his hometown. The Raptors are expected to be without Pascal Siakam for this one, which is certainly key, but that's already been factored into this line. I look for Toronto to do a much better of job of turning this into a slugfest. It was essentially a one-man team with Kawhi Leonard doing all of the heavy lifting in Game 3, but even with little to no support from his teammates, the Raps were still within striking distance heading into the fourth quarter. Expect a better all-around performance here. Take Toronto (10*). |
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05-04-19 | Warriors +4 v. Rockets | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Houston at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. This could still turn out to be a long series but I believe the Rockets are simply laying too many points on Saturday night. The first two games certainly could have gone either way with Golden State winning by four and six points. The Rockets are now actually 4-2 ATS against the Warriors this season. Golden State ranks first in offensive rating in the playoffs and while the Rockets have been tough defensively here at home, and will undoubtedly bring their best effort on Saturday night, I have to go with the value being offered to back the superior squad. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -2 | 123-116 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Milwaukee at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Celtics are giving all the respect in the world to the Bucks, and rightfully so after Milwaukee answered back following an embarrassing series-opening loss at home. Here, I look for Boston to be the team to bounce back after a beatdown in Game 2. The Bucks have been the cream of the crop in the Eastern Conference this season but there's no question the Celtics are going to be a tough out. I like the spot here as there's really not a great deal of pressure on Boston after it earned a split in Milwaukee. It would have been a different story if the C's were returning home in an 0-2 hole, but instead they're very much in the series, and I'm confident we'll see them play loose and take the play to the Bucks on Friday night. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-02-19 | Raptors -1 v. 76ers | 95-116 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Raptors are coming off arguably their worst performance of the playoffs to date in Game 2 of this series as they came out with no energy and were never able to recover as the 76ers evened the series up at one game apiece. Despite getting outrebounded 52-36 and spotting the 76ers 26 free throws compared to their own 15, the Raps still only lost by five points. Toronto actually managed to outscored Philadelphia in terms of both points in the paint (44-38) and on the fast break (18-13). It was really Toronto's usually reliable bench that let it down in Game 2. The Raps were actually + points with all five of their starters on the floor but outscored badly with their bench in the game. Toronto has been a quality road team all season and I don't believe there will be any sort of intimidation factor at play here. Take Toronto (10*). |
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04-27-19 | Spurs +6 v. Nuggets | 86-90 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Denver at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Spurs as they try to close out the Nuggets on Saturday night in Denver. I'm not sure we're going to see Denver improve much on its 103-point performance in Game 5. Yes, the Nuggets shot poorly from beyond the arc, but I am confident the Spurs can replicate their defensive performance here. This entire series has really been played at the Spurs preferred pace. So far in the playoffs, these two teams rank in the bottom two in terms of pace rating. The two teams have basically been mirror images of one another as far as both offensive and defensive ratings go. The favorite has covered in back-to-back games entering this one, but I look for that trend to reverse on Saturday. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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04-26-19 | Warriors -9.5 v. Clippers | 129-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Clippers have had the edge in this series from a betting perspective, going 3-2 ATS through the first five games and we've been on board with them for two of those victories. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears, however, as the Warriors certainly have that extra gear they can go to, and I'm certain they don't want to drag this series out any longer than it already has. The pressure is certainly on for Golden State to finish things off here after watching the Rockets take care of the Jazz and earn some welcome rest. The Clippers are deserving of a lot of credit for giving the Warriors all they handle but I don't think we'll see Golden State settle into the sort of lull it has displayed for stretches in Games 2 and 5. Take Golden State (10*). |
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04-24-19 | Jazz v. Rockets -8 | 93-100 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Utah at 8 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Jazz in their outright victory to stave off elimination on Sunday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and lay the points with the Rockets as they return home looking to close out Utah on Wednesday night. It was an off game for the Rockets to be sure, as they shot the ball poorly from all over the floor. Meanwhile, the Jazz turned in what was their most complete performance of the series to date, which was not surprising given the circumstances. With no interest in getting stretched out any further in this series, look for the Rockets to deliver the knockout blow on Wednesday night at home. Take Houston (10*). |
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04-22-19 | Rockets v. Jazz +2.5 | 91-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Houston at 10:35 pm et on Monday. After the Jazz were favored in Game 3 of this series on Saturday night, the line has flipped in advance of Game 4 - not surprising given the Rockets can deliver the knockout blow to Utah on Monday night in Salt Lake City. I don't expect the Jazz to go down without a fight, however, and will grab all the points I can get with them as they make their last stand on Monday. The Rockets have now won five straight meetings in this series but the Jazz do have two wins to their credit over Houston this season. There were certainly positives to take away from Saturday's loss, the least of which being the fact that Utah was in the game right down to the final whistle, actually leading but as many as eight points, and carrying a two-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. The Jazz won't shoot as poorly from the three-point line as they did in Game 3 (12-of-41). Look for that to be a difference-maker in this one. Take Utah (10*). |
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04-21-19 | Warriors v. Clippers +9.5 | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Golden State at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Clippers in Game 2 of this series but stayed away in Game 3 as the Warriors bounced back in a big way. Golden State is still one of the worst bets in the NBA and I won't hesitate to fade it again as it looks to grab a commanding 3-1 lead in the series. Los Angeles couldn't have played any worse in Game 3 as it shot just 37% from the field including 22% from beyond the arc. That wasn't unexpected as the Clips suffered a major hangover after that huge 31-point rally in Game 2. Here, I look for L.A. to get off to a better start and hang with the Warriors for four quarters. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-20-19 | 76ers v. Nets +2 | 112-108 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Philadelphia at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. I like the Nets to bounce back after dropping consecutive games to fall behind in this series. The 76ers were without Joel Embiid on Friday night but still managed to breeze past the Nets. It wasn't a focused or nearly desperate enough effort from the underdog Nets, but I expect to see them show a lot more pride and determination in what could amount to their last stand at home on Saturday afternoon. Keep in mind, the 76ers are a losing bet overall and just a .500 team on the road this season. The Nets come in off back-to-back ATS losses, but haven't dropped three in a row ATS since February 27th to March 2nd. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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04-19-19 | Raptors v. Magic +5 | 98-93 | Push | 0 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The oddsmakers are calling for a competitive affair between the Raptors and Magic on Friday night, and I'll side with them in this spot as Orlando should bounce back following a dreadful performance in Game 2. Despite the Raptors rout on Tuesday night at home, these two teams have split their six matchups this season. I don't believe the Magic will roll over and die with the series tied at one game apiece. Toronto is obviously the superior team, but Orlando has been the far better bet, going 46-37-1 ATS to date compared to the Raps 39-45 ATS mark. Take Orlando (10*). |
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04-18-19 | Nuggets +4 v. Spurs | 108-118 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over San Antonio at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. I think we'll see the Nuggets play with some desperation in this game, even though they evened up the series in Game 2. The last game certainly could have gone either way with Denver rallying big in the fourth quarter to not only win but cover the spread. Much will be made of the fact that the Spurs have won 13 straight games at home against the Nuggets but I really don't believe the players will pay any mind to that. Note that Denver fell just one point short (and covered the spread) the last time it played here in San Antonio back in early March. The spread was considerably shorter in that game than the number we're dealing with here. Take Denver (10*). |
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04-17-19 | Jazz +7 v. Rockets | Top | 98-118 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Houston at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. After watching the Warriors stunning collapse in Game 2 of their matchup with the Clippers on Sunday night many have come to the conclusion that they're ripe for the picking in these playoffs, and that same majority also believes that the Rockets will be the team to ultimately dethrone the perennial champs. That's a narrative I believe is in play here with most forgetting that the Rockets still have some work to do before that, even if the opener of this series was no contest. I'm confident we'll see Utah bounce back with a much better effort on Wednesday night in Houston. This isn't a Jazz squad that rolled over at the end of the regular season. Utah entered the playoffs with some positive vibes and having split four regular season matchups with the Rockets, including a win here on this floor, I don't believe they'll be intimidated by the 0-1 hole, or the fact that they dropped Game 1 in blowout fashion. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Jazz here. Take Utah (10*). |
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04-16-19 | Thunder +2 v. Blazers | 94-114 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Portland at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Blazers prevailed in a hard-fought series opener on Sunday but I fully expect to see the Thunder answer back and steal home court advantage with a victory on Tuesday night. There's no intimidation factor at play here as the Thunder have already won two games on this floor since the start of 2019. And there's no reason for Oklahoma City to be rattled after Game 1. After all, the Thunder aren't likely to shoot as poorly from the three-point line again (5-for-33 in Game 1). There were plenty of positives for the Thunder to take away from that loss as they outrebounded the Blazers, nearly doubled them in fast break points and also had a 14-point edge in the paint. This has all the makings of a long, back-and-forth series. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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04-15-19 | Clippers +13.5 v. Warriors | 135-131 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Golden State at 10:30 pm et on Monday. The Warriors put together an outstanding performance in Game 1 of this series on Saturday but I believe it's going to be tough for them to repeat that effort against what will obviously be a highly-motivated Clippers squad on Monday night. A lot of the same reasoning from Saturday's play still applies here. It's not as if the Clips were completely outclassed for four quarters on Saturday, they know they can hang with the Warriors, just as they did in an extremely close two-point game right here on this floor back in December (the Clips also defeated the Warriors at home back in November). Despite their blowout win in Game 1, the Warriors are still a losing bet on the season by a considerable margin. Look for the Clips to hang tough(er) here. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-13-19 | Clippers +13 v. Warriors | Top | 104-121 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Golden State at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Clippers got steamrolled by the Warriors in a spot where many expected them to compete less than a week ago and now we’re dealing with an inflated pointspread as a result. Keep in mind, that was a competitive game until halftime, before the wheels came off for the Clips and the Warriors put up a 42-spot in the third quarter. From a high-level perspective, I don’t think a Western Conference title is going to come quite as easy for the Warriors as it has in years’ past. We’ve certainly seen chinks in the Dubs’ armor over the course of the season and to put it simply, they’ve been one of the worst ATS bets in the entire league. Conversely, few expected much out of the Clippers this season and while they stumbled down the stretch, there’s no question it has been a successful campaign, and I fully expect to see them play with a ‘nothing to lose’ mentality here in the opening round. I won’t call for an outright victory in Saturday’s series-opener, but I do look for the Clips to give the Warriors all they can handle in Oakland. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-13-19 | Magic v. Raptors -8.5 | 104-101 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Orlando at 5 pm et on Saturday. The Magic have had to scratch and claw their way for the better part of the last three months to just get into the NBA Playoffs and what do they earn for their troubles? A date with the second-ranked Raptors, a team that is not only supremely talented, but also highly-motivated to make this ‘the year’ that they finally get over the hump and win the Eastern Conference. I liked the way the Raptors didn’t ease off the gas pedal down the stretch, winning seven of their last eight games, including a 20-point rout of Minnesota on the second-last night of the regular season. During that stretch was also a 12-point win over these same Magic, a team that had gotten the better of them here in Toronto in late February (we won with the Magic as a big underdog in a 15-point outright win). The Raptors know that nothing is going to be handed to them, especially against a real tough-out of a first round opponent. With that being said, we’re dealing with a single-digit pointspread here, unlike the openers for the Bucks and Warriors, two other teams that I would certainly put the Raptors near or in the same class as. Much has been made of the Raptors brutal track record both SU and ATS in playoff openers, but I believe we see a different story unfold this year. Take Toronto (10*). |
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04-09-19 | Grizzlies v. Pistons -10 | Top | 93-100 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Memphis at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Pistons on Tuesday night. Detroit is reeling right now, on the heels of four straight losses. Keep in mind, it has faced a tough schedule, with a home-and-home with the Pacers followed by a trip to Oklahoma City and a home game against Charlotte. Here, the Pistons catch a break hosting a beat up Grizzlies squad that is simply playing out the string, and fresh off an overtime loss to Dallas two nights ago. Despite dropping four straight games, the Pistons still rank in the top half of the league in terms of defensive rating over their last five contests. The Grizzlies on the other hand sit in the bottom-third of the league in both offensive and defensive rating over that same stretch. We're laying a generous helping of points here, but I believe the number is warranted. Take Detroit (10*). |
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04-08-19 | Texas Tech v. Virginia -1 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
NCAAB Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Texas Tech at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We cashed a ticket with Auburn in its near-miss against Virginia on Saturday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Cavaliers as they take on Texas Tech with the National Championship hanging in the balance on Monday night. This is all about the redemption story for Virginia as it looks to come full circle after being eliminated at the hands of a 16-seed in the opening round of last year's tournament. While Texas Tech has gone on what many consider to be a 'Cinderella run' in this tournament, the fact is, the Red Raiders are a three-seed that haven't really exceeded expectations by that wide of a margin. They're deserving of being here and should be able to give Virginia a run. With that being said, I simply don't see Texas Tech having many advantages here, as Virginia will be more than happy to slug it out with the Red Raiders for 40 minutes. The Cavaliers defense has come up big time and time again in this tournament and I anticipate more of the same on Monday night. Take Virginia (10*). |
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04-07-19 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Kings | 133-129 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Sacramento at 9:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Pelicans as they travel to Sacramento to face the Kings on Sunday. New Orleans has now lost three games in a row but did manage to push Phoenix to overtime last time out. The Pelicans last victory actually came against these same Kings on March 28th. Sacramento has stumbled down the stretch, dropping four of its last six games, with three of those losses coming by double-digits. The Pelicans rank 12th in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. There's not a lot separating these two squads over that stretch in terms of defensive rating or pace rating. This has been a competitive series this season, with the Pelicans taking two of three meetings. The lone game the Kings did win over New Orleans came by just five points. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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04-06-19 | 76ers -9.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Bulls are coming off a rare victory last time out, a narrow one-point win over the lowly Wizards. That was their first win in six games so there's no reason to start planning the parade. The 76ers have dropped three games in a row, both SU and ATS. I really feel Philadelphia can run Chicago right of of the gym tonight, noting that despite its recent struggles to find the win column, Philly ranks third in the league in pace rating over its last five contests. The Sixers are also in the top half of the league in offensive rating over that stretch while the Bulls check in a miserable 28th. Both teams are banged up but Philadelphia is in better position to come up with a complete effort here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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04-06-19 | Auburn +6 v. Virginia | 62-63 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Auburn plus the points over Virginia at 6:09 pm et on Saturday. Not a lot of respect is being given to the Auburn Tigers based on this pointspread. The Tigers' Final Four run has been impressive to say the least as they've taken down Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky over their last three games. I don't need to tell you that's no easy task. I don't believe there's a significant intimidation factor at play here against Virginia, a team that has been bludgeoning the opposition with its defense, but can always go ice cold offensively at the drop of a hat. I'm not sure that the Cavaliers have the ability to ever completely put this game away, so I'll gladly grab the generous helping of points with the upstart Tigers as they aim to play giant-killer one more time. Take Auburn (10*). |
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04-05-19 | Spurs v. Wizards +6.5 | Top | 129-112 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over San Antonio at 7:05 pm et on Friday. This may look like a gimme for the Spurs to 'get right' following an uneven stretch, but I believe they're in for a battle with the Wizards. San Antonio has won just three times in its last eight games and only one of those SU wins came ATS as well. Meanwhile, the Wizards returned home from what should be considered a successful 2-2 road trip only to lose to the Bulls (by a single point). They still check in 3-1 ATS over their last four contests. Over their last five games, the Wiz rank seventh in the league in pace rating. They're just 20th in offensive rating over that same stretch, but keep in mind that's only one spot behind the Spurs. In terms of defensive rating, Washington is right around the middle of the league (at 16th) over its last five games while San Antonio sits 24th. The Wiz hung 119 points on the Spurs back in January, but still lost. Expect a competitive affair here. Take Washington (10*). |
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04-03-19 | Knicks v. Magic -12 | 100-114 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Magic continue to exceed expectations at every turn and while they are coming off a double-digit loss in Toronto on Monday, I look for them to bounce back against the lowly Knicks on Wednesday night. Orlando checks in just outside the top 10 in the league in offensive rating over its last five games and should feast on a non-existent Knicks defense here. While the Magic's defense has lagged a bit of late, it's important to note that they're coming off a four-game road trip that closed with matchups against the Pistons, Pacers and Raptors. The Knicks are coming off a rare win on Monday night against the Bulls, but they should be right back into 'tank mode' on Wednesday night. There's really no benefit in winning these games down the stretch and it has showed with New York dropping six straight prior to Monday's victory. The Knicks did take the most recent meeting in this series, but prior to that it was three straight blowout wins for the Magic. Take Orlando (10*). |
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04-01-19 | Cavs v. Suns -2 | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Cleveland at 10:05 pm et on Monday. We cashed yet another ticket fading the Suns on Saturday night against Memphis but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back them as they host the lowly Cavs on Monday night. The Suns have certainly gone in the tank lately, but so have the Cavs. It's been over two weeks since Phoenix last won a game but it's worth noting it has played only six games since, and it hasn't faced the easiest of schedules. The Cavs enter riding a five-game losing streak and save for a six-point loss in San Antonio, haven't really been close in their last four contests. Tonight's game will mark their fourth game in the last seven nights, in a fourth different city. I'll lay the short number with the Suns as they finally notch a win on this homestand. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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03-31-19 | Grizzlies +9 v. Clippers | 96-113 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Grizzlies in Phoenix last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday as they head to Los Angeles to face the Clippers. Memphis certainly hasn't quite on the season, as evidenced by its even 3-3 record over its last six games. The Grizzlies have gone 4-2 ATS over that stretch. The Clippers are fresh off a blowout win here at home, but that came against the lowly Cavs. Their previous three home wins came by seven points or less. This has been a tightly-contested series with six of the last seven meetings decided by single digits, with the only double-digit margin coming by way of a 10-point Memphis victory earlier this season. Take Memphis (10*). |
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03-31-19 | Auburn v. Kentucky -4.5 | 77-71 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kentucky minus the points over Auburn at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. The injury to Chuma Okeke is obviously key in this matchup. While it's certainly been reflected in the pointspread, I'm not sure enough weight has been given. He's been doing it all for the Tigers, and in what could become a bit more of a slugfest than the Tigers are used to on Sunday, his rebounding ability will truly be missed. The Wildcats didn't get a lot of press entering this tournament, a little bit odd for John Calipari's program. They've quietly gone about their business and are now one win away from the Final Four. The Wildcats are one of the best shooting teams in the nation, knocking down just shy of 48% of their shots, but it's been their defense that has really come up big in this tourney, allowing 44, 56 and 58 points in three games. Take Kentucky (10*). |
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03-30-19 | Grizzlies -1.5 v. Suns | 120-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Suns have gone in the 'tank' so to speak over the last couple of weeks. Their lone win over their last eight games came in a wild overtime game that was essentially handed to them in New Orleans two weeks ago (we won with Phoenix on that night). The Grizzlies have faced a pretty tough recent schedule but have managed to go 3-2 ATS over their last five contests. Note that they rank ahead of the Suns in terms of both offensive and defensive rating over that stretch. Both teams are dealing with a number of key injuries. I simply feel the Grizzlies are in better position to battle through on Saturday night. Take Memphis (10*). |
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03-30-19 | Purdue +4.5 v. Virginia | 75-80 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
NCAAB Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Purdue plus the points over Virginia at 8:49 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Boilermakers as they look to continue their quasi-Cinderella run in the NCAA Tournament on Saturday night. Top-seeded Virginia has looked good, but not great in this tournament. The Cavaliers will be in for a stiff challenge here as the Boilers have been playing with a nothing to lose mentality since the start of this tournament. In what projects to be a relatively low-scoring affair on Saturday night (unlike Purdue's wild overtime win over Tennessee on Thursday), I'm comfortable grabbing the nearly handful of points in a game that could very well go right down to the wire. Take Purdue (10*). |
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03-29-19 | Wizards v. Jazz -12 | 124-128 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Washington at 9:05 pm et on Friday. The Jazz are really rounding into form with the playoffs quickly approaching, winners of eight of their last nine games overall, going 7-2 ATS over that stretch. Over their last five games, the Jazz rank in a tie for eighth in the league in pace rating, second in offensive rating and third in defensive rating. It doesn't get much better than that. Meanwhile, the Wizards are, or at least should be in tank mode. They're coming off a win over the lowly Suns in Phoenix, but that was just their first victory in their last six contests. Over their last five games, the Wiz rank 19th in pace rating, a reasonable 12th in offensive rating but 27th in defensive rating. I don't believe they can stay within arm's reach of the rolling Jazz on Friday night. Take Utah (10*). |
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03-29-19 | LSU v. Michigan State -6 | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan State minus the points over LSU at 7:09 pm et on Friday. There's a class difference between these two teams that I'm not sure is being properly accounted for in this pointspread. LSU is here thanks to a truly ugly win over Maryland last Saturday. Save for a slow start against Bradley in the opening round, the Spartans haven't really been tested. Over their last three halves of basketball, they've outscored the opposition by a whopping 112-80 margin. Defense, and the poise of Cassius Winston should ultimately be the difference in this matchup as I have Michigan State winning by a comfortable margin. Take Michigan State (10*). |
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03-28-19 | Oregon v. Virginia -8 | 49-53 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Oregon at 9:57 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Cavaliers in the Round of 32 and I wont' hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they take on upstart Oregon on Thursday night. The Ducks are quite simply the hottest bet in the tournament, entering this game riding a 10-game SU and ATS winning streak. However, without question this will be their toughest test since the start of that stretch. Virginia has looked extremely focused in this tournament so far, which is no real surprise after last year's stunning opening round loss to 16-seed UMBC. I still don't think the Cavaliers are getting as much attention as they should be - keep in mind, they're now an impressive 24-10 ATS this season. Virginia is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS in this series, with its last victory over Oregon coming back in 2011. Expect to see the same story unfold on Thursday night. Take Virginia (10*). |
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03-28-19 | Raptors -11.5 v. Knicks | 117-92 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over New York at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Raptors have certainly been playing an uneven brand of basketball lately and enter this contest on a three-game ATS losing streak. With that being said, I believe this is a blowout in the making, much like back on March 18th when the Raps rolled past the Knicks by 36 points. Despite their lack of recent success, the Raps check in ranked sixth in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. Offensively, it's a similar story as they rank seventh in the NBA over that same stretch. By contrast, the Knicks are where you would expect them to be in terms of defensive rating, pulling up the rear in 30th spot over their last five contests. Their offensive rating hasn't been quite as bad, but they still check in 21st. If there's an opponent the Raptors are comfortable playing against when they're back on their heels a bit, it's the Knicks, as they've gone 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. Take Toronto (10*). |
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03-27-19 | Blazers -7 v. Bulls | 118-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I don't like the spot for the Bulls here as they return home off a reasonably close loss in Toronto last night. Chicago is in full-on tank mode as far as I'm concerned. They do have a couple of recent wins but one of those came by way of overtime against the lowly Wizards and the other came against one of the league's worst teams in the Suns (we won with the Bulls in that game). Portland is undermanned to be sure with C.J. McCollum already sidelined and now Josef Nurkic out of action as well. Seth Curry and Enes Kanter will be looked upon to pick up the slack with the former already having done so over the last several games. I expect to see the Blazers take care of business here, noting they rank fourth in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. By contrast, the Bulls are 29th in that category over that stretch. Take Portland (10*). |
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03-26-19 | Hawks +1.5 v. Pelicans | 130-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. While the Pelicans are in full-on tank mode right now (whether by choice or not), the Hawks have actually shown some fight, and enter this game off back-to-back wins over two quality opponents in the Jazz and 76ers. In fact, Atlanta has been one of the best bets in the entire league in recent weeks, going 12-4 ATS over its last 16 games. It's also worth noting that the Hawks rank first in the league in pace rating over their last five games. While their offensive rating leaves something to be desired, I do think they can take advantage of a Pelicans squad that has been even worse in that regard, ranking 21st in the league in defensive rating over their last five contests. The Hawks are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS against the Pelicans since the start of 2017. While it's never comfortable backing a team that sits 15 games under .500 on the road, I believe a play is warranted here. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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03-25-19 | Nets +6.5 v. Blazers | 144-148 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with the Nets, who will be shooting their third straight win on Monday night in Portland. Despite allowing 118 and 112 points in their last two games, both victories, the Nets still check in top 10 in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. They catch the Blazers in a favorable spot here. Brooklyn is coming off two days of rest while Portland escaped with a narrow five-point win over Detroit on Saturday and will have an eye on a four-game road trip that begins on Wednesday night in Chicago. While the Blazers have won six of their last seven games it's worth noting that four of those victories came by single-digit margins. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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03-24-19 | Oklahoma v. Virginia -10.5 | 51-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Oklahoma at 7:45 pm et on Sunday. Virginia got a bit of a scare from Gardner-Webb in the opening round of this tournament on Friday but that shouldn't really come as a surprise, as the Cavaliers have been slow starters all season. I expect to see the Cavaliers come out with more focus this time around as they face a much tougher challenge against the Sooners. Oklahoma had no trouble at all cruising past Ole Miss in its tournament opener, scoring 95 points in a rout. It was one of the most impressive performances of the entire opening round. The Sooners will be involved in a much different game here, however, as the Cavaliers will of course look to slow things down and play to their strengths. Look for Virginia's suffocating defense to ultimately win out as the Cavs pull away for a convincing victory. Take Virginia (10*). |
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03-23-19 | Villanova +4 v. Purdue | Top | 61-87 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
NCAAB Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Villanova plus the points over Purdue at 9 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Wildcats in a game I believe they can win outright. Villanova ultimately failed to cover for us in their tournament opener, settling for a push in a four-point win over St. Mary's. Watching that game I didn't feel that it was quite as close as the final score indicated, however. I'm not sure we've seen Villanova's best game yet, really going back to the start of the Big East Tournament, which it did win. Purdue won and covered, narrowly, against Old Dominion in its Thursday matchup. The Boilermakers are good, but not great, and I really don't think there's any sort of intimidation factor at play here. Give me Jay Wright's defending national champion Wildcats over Matt Painter's Boilers on Saturday night. Take Villanova (10*). |
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03-22-19 | Spurs v. Rockets -6 | Top | 105-111 | Push | 0 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston minus the points over San Antonio at 8:05 pm et on Friday. With the Spurs having won nine of their last 10 games overall this one will be pegged as a showdown between two of the West's best teams on Friday night. Keep in mind, San Antonio has played eight of its last 10 contests at home. The Spurs are just 13-22 on the road this season, where they rank a miserable 28th in the league in defensive rating. The Rockets are coming off a tough overtime loss in Memphis two nights ago, but had gone a perfect 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS over their previous three games. This hasn't been a favorable matchup for the Spurs in Houston, with the Rockets winning their last three meetings on this floor by 15, 16 and 7 points. Take Houston (10*). |
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03-22-19 | Cal-Irvine v. Kansas State -4.5 | Top | 70-64 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
NCAAB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas State minus the points over Cal-Irvine at 2 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with the Wildcats on Friday afternoon. Cal-Irvine has become a trendy upset pick here in round one of the NCAA Tournament, largely due to an injury to Dean Wade of Kansas State. The fact is, that Wade injury has essentially been common knowledge since before this line was released. In other words, it has already been factored into the pointspread, which I believe is simply too short. It's easy to forget that Kansas State went on a serious run in this tournament last year, winning three games before bowing out to Cinderella team Loyola-Chicago. Most of the players from that Wildcats squad are back this year and I believe they come in with a chip on their shoulder after bowing out of the Big 12 Tournament at the hands of Iowa State last weekend. The Wildcats have lost only three games since the start of February with two of those coming against Iowa State and the other against Kansas. Cal-Irvine hasn't lost since January 16th but has it really been tested? The Anteaters are without a doubt a formidable opponent but I like Kansas State to ultimately pull away for the win and cover. Take Kansas State (10*). |
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03-22-19 | Iowa v. Cincinnati -4 | 79-72 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Iowa at 12:15 pm et on Friday. I believe Cincinnati is a vastly underrated commodity entering this tournament. Yes, the Bearcats have limped to a 14-20 ATS mark this season but they got themselves on a nice run in the AAC Tournament, culminating with an upset win over Houston in the final. Cincinnati checks in having delivered the cash in two of its last three contests. Iowa has just one win to its credit over its last six games and that came against an awful Illinois squad. The Illini's only other win over their last eight games came by way of overtime at home against another non-NCAA Tournament team in Indiana. As bad as the Bearcats have been ATS this season, the Hawkeyes have been even worse, going 13-20 ATS. Look for Mick Cronin's Bearcats to perform above expectations in their first game of the tournament. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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03-21-19 | Pistons v. Suns +7.5 | 118-98 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Detroit at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab the points with the Suns on Thursday night. Save for a win over the Raptors on Sunday, the Pistons have been struggling lately. They check in last in the league in pace rating over their last five games while also sitting a miserable 29th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating over that stretch. The Suns continue to force the issue, ranking fifth in pace rating and I believe they can give some headaches in this one. While Phoenix is by no means known for its defensive prowess, it does sit a reasonable 15th in the league in defensive rating over its last five contests. We've actually cashed tickets in each of the Suns last two games, winning with them in New Orleans on Saturday before fading them against the Bulls at home on Monday. Look for a solid bounce-back effort against a Pistons squad that is having a tough time on the road. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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03-21-19 | St. Mary's v. Villanova -4 | Top | 57-61 | Push | 0 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Villanova minus the points over St. Mary's at 7:20 pm et on Thursday. The St. Mary's Gaels are coming off a high-profile upset win over Gonzaga to secure the WCC Tournament title last week. They clearly caught the Bulldogs looking ahead to a one-seed in this tournament, and also napping a bit after taking the two regular season matchups with relative ease. I like the way the well-coached Villanova Wildcats come into this game after gutting out a couple of tight wins to wrap up another Big East Tournament championship last weekend. Despite being a marked team as the defending national champions, the Wildcats have still managed to post a solid 20-14 ATS record this season. The last time these two schools met was the 2010 NCAA Tournament and we actually cashed with the Gaels in an outright underdog victory in that Round of 32 affair. That was a team led by Matthew Dellavedova, Omar Samhan and Mickey McConnell. The line here is similar, but I believe the gap is wider favoring the Wildcats. Villanova may not be poised to repeat as national champions, but I do expect it to advance on to the Round of 32 with a convincing victory on Thursday night. Take Villanova (10*). |
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03-21-19 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Gonzaga -27.5 | 49-87 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over Fairleigh Dickinson at 7:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the one-seed Bulldogs on Thursday as they begin their NCAA Tournament march against Fairleigh Dickinson. There's no need to overthink this one. FDU is used to knocking down close to 50% of its shots but won't come close to approaching that shooting percentage here. Gonzaga has played lock-down defense all season, holding the opposition to just over 65 points per game on below 39% shooting. Sure, the Bulldogs suffered a hiccup in the WCC Tournament championship game, falling to rival St. Mary's but I don't think they lost too much sleep over it. Gonzaga may have got caught looking past the Gaels, but will undoubtedly be up for this one. FDU hasn't lost since February 14th, but that was a 25-point setback, at home no less. This is also a team that lost by 35 points against Rutgers to open the season. The class difference between these two squads is being property represented with this lofty line. Take Gonzaga (10*). |
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03-21-19 | Minnesota v. Louisville -5 | 86-76 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Minnesota at 12:15 pm et on Thursday. I realize that this is going to be a popular pick on Thursday afternoon but that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. This Minnesota squad doesn't impress me at all. We're talking about a Gophers team that ultimately posted a losing record in conference play, albeit against a tough Big Ten slate. I really question how much the Gophers have left in the tank right now after looking completely out of sorts in a blowout loss to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament last week. Much like Minnesota, Louisville limps into this one after getting outclassed by North Carolina in the ACC Tournament. I give the Cardinals the considerable edge at the free throw line and on the glass in this matchup and I think that's ultimately what this game comes down to. Everyone remembers that loss to UNC and a blowout loss at Syracuse in a nationally-televised game back in late February. Outside of those poor showings, the Cards have been solid and while we're only worried about round one, they could be poised to go on a run in this tournament. Take Louisville (10*). |
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03-20-19 | Celtics +3 v. 76ers | 115-118 | Push | 0 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. There's no question the Celtics have had the 76ers number this season and can earn a sweep of the season series with a victory on Wednesday night. The 76ers are playing excellent basketball having not lost since March 8th against Houston but I look for the C's to get the better of them once again. Boston will be highly-motivated for this game coming off a nine-point home loss to the Nuggets on Monday. Prior to that, the Celtics had been playing well, winners of five of their previous six contests. That all got started with a resounding 128-95 win over the Warriors in Oakland back on March 5th. I see this as a similar motivational spot against the rival 76ers. No surprise at all if this isn't the last meeting between these two teams this season. For now I'll give the Celtics the edge in an underdog role. Take Boston (10*). |
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03-19-19 | Nets v. Kings -4 | 123-121 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Brooklyn at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Kings in a rout of the Bulls on Sunday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as Sacramento hosts Brooklyn. The Nets have gone 0-3 on their current road trip, albeit against some tough opposition. While Brooklyn is coming off an ATS cover against the Clippers, it's worth noting that it hasn't notched back-to-back ATS wins since February 23rd and 25th. The Kings enter this game ranked tied for third in the NBA in pace rating over their last five games. While the Nets aren't far behind sitting seventh, the Kings have been making more of their opportunities, ranking 14th in offensive rating over that same stretch while the Nets rank 28th. Brooklyn sits well ahead of Sacramento in defensive rating but that's largely due to an outlier against the Pistons in which it gave up just 75 points last week. The Nets took the first meeting in this series this season by a whopping 29 points but the Kings had won consecutive meetings prior to that. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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03-18-19 | Bulls +3 v. Suns | 116-101 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the Suns on Saturday as they were essentially handed the game by the Pelicans in the closing seconds. We also cashed a ticket fading the Bulls on Sunday as they were crushed by the Kings in Sacramento. With that being said, I'm confident backing Chicago plus the points on Monday night as it aims to bounce back in Phoenix. The Suns are rolling along right now ATS but this marks the first time they've been favored in a game since March 6th against the Knicks. Keep in mind, they're just 10-24 SU at home this season. The Bulls have actually been slightly better on the road than at home, notching 11 victories as visitors. I'll also point out that Chicago took the lone previous meeting in this series this season by eight points back in November. Take Chicago (10*). |
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03-17-19 | Bulls v. Kings -6.5 | Top | 102-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Chicago at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Kings in this spot. Sacramento has been reeling lately but has also faced a pretty brutal schedule. While I don't generally like to back teams returning home off a road trip on the opposite coast, I do believe we'll see the Kings bounce back here. Note that Sacramento ranks third in the league in pace rating over its last five games and should be able to punish an awful Bulls defense on Sunday. Chicago checks in 29th in the league in defensive rating over its last five contests. The Bulls are coming off a relatively close seven-point loss against the Clippers but that was only thanks to L.A. taking its foot off the gas in the fourth quarter (it was an 18-point game entering the fourth). Chicago is just 2-5 ATS over its last seven games. The Kings have lost four of their last five SU but have still managed to go 3-1-1 ATS over that stretch. Also note that the Kings took the first meeting in this series this season by 19 points back in December. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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03-16-19 | Suns +2.5 v. Pelicans | 138-136 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over New Orleans at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Pelicans are really struggling right now, losers of five games in a row and allowing 120+ points in each of their last four contests. They've had their way with the Suns in recent years but I don't feel that holds much bearing here. Phoenix suffered a narrow six-point loss in Houston last night. Keep in mind, they won on the road against the Warriors last Sunday. The Suns certainly don't appear to be a team that's tanking right now, having gone 5-4 SU and 7-2 ATS over their last nine games. The Pelicans should have Anthony Davis back tonight but are still missing Jrue Holliday. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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03-16-19 | Florida +3 v. Auburn | 62-65 | Push | 0 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida plus the points over Auburn at 1 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have obviously impressed so far in this tournament and while Florida would appear to be in a prime letdown spot following yesterday's come-from-behind win over favored LSU, I actually expect that victory to fuel the Gators fire against Auburn on Saturday. The Tigers got the better of the Gators in their lone regular season meeting, their first win in what seems like an eternity in this series. I simply feel that these two teams are mirror images of one another and that the right move is to grab the points in a game that could easily go either way. Behind another balanced offensive performance, look for the Gators to hang tough for 40 minutes and put Auburn's SEC title hopes in doubt. Take Florida (10*). |
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03-15-19 | Bucks -5 v. Heat | 113-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Miami at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with the Bucks on Friday night in Miami. We won with Milwaukee last time out as it shook out of a mini-slump with a blowout win in New Orleans. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Despite its recent struggles to find the win column, Milwaukee checks in third in offensive rating and first in defensive rating over its last five games. The Heat, on the other hand, sit 23rd and eighth in those two categories, respectively over that same stretch. Miami has actually been winning with some consistency, notching five victories in its last six games. However, when it last stepped up in class against the Raptors last Sunday, it lost by 21 points. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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03-15-19 | Grambling State v. Prairie View A&M -3.5 | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Prairie View A&M minus the points over Grambling at 3:30 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with the Panthers in this matchup. Prairie View will fly below most bettors' radar, after all they've gone just 20-12 SU and 16-14-1 ATS overall this season. But the Panthers have been the class of the SWAC, posting an 18-1 record in-conference. Meanwhile, Grambling has had an ok season, going 11-8 in conference play, thanks in large part to four straight wins entering this contest. Keep in mind, all four of those wins came against losing opponents, with two of them coming against two of the worst teams in the nation. Grambling was competitive in its home matchup with Prairie View during the regular season but still dropped the cash in both matchups, including a 17-point loss on the road. Take Prairie View A&M (10*). |
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03-14-19 | UMKC v. Utah Valley -9 | Top | 64-71 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
WAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah Valley minus the points over UMKC at 9 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with Utah Valley on Thursday night as it aims to march on in the WAC Tournament in Las Vegas. The Wolverines have been absolutely rolling since early January, with only two losses dating back to January 12th and both of those came against the top team in the conference, New Mexico State, which has gone 27-4 this season. It's worth noting that both of those games could have gone either way with the Aggies winning by five and seven points. UMKC closed out the regular season with a beatdown of Chicago State but that's nothing to brag about as the Cougars have only three wins to their credit this season. Prior to that, UMKC's last win came on February 16th. While both regular season meetings in this series went to Utah Valley, neither game was a real blowout. I feel that will help keep the Wolverines guard up here. Take Utah Valley (10*). |
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03-14-19 | Cavs +8 v. Magic | Top | 91-120 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Orlando at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Magic were one of the hottest teams in the league a short time ago, but that certainly isn't the case now as they limp into this game losers of back-to-back and four of their last five games overall. Their lone victory over that stretch came by five points at home against the Mavs. Cleveland has shown signs of life lately, including an upset win over the Raptors on Monday night. The Cavs have been pushing the pace a little more lately, ranking 18th in the league in pace rating over their last five games. That's a marked improvement as they had been pulling up the rear in that department a couple of weeks ago. The Magic currently rank 27th in pace rating over that same stretch. The Cavs also sit in the top half of the league in both offensive and defensive rating over those last five contests. By contrast, the Magic are 29th and 18th, respectively. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Cavs here. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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03-14-19 | Delaware State v. North Carolina Central -11 | 57-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. Central minus the points over Delaware State at 6 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Eagles as they take on Delaware State on Thursday evening. N.C. Central last lost only two games since February 9th and those losses came against the two top ranked teams in the MEAC in Norfolk State and North Carolina A&T, both of which advanced in this tournament with victories last night. Delaware State has only six wins to its credit this season, finishing 12th in the MEAC. The last time these two teams met back on February 11th, the Eagles rolled to a 35-point victory. The Hornets of course did win their tournament opener but that came against Savannah State, a team that ranks seventh in the MEAC with an 11-20 record. Delaware State will be taking a bigger step up in class here. Take N.C. Central (10*). |
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03-14-19 | Chicago State v. New Mexico State -26 | 49-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Mexico State minus the points over Chicago State at 3 pm et on Thursday. There's already a sizable class different between New Mexico State and the rest of the WAC but here that will be even more pronounced as the Aggies take on last place Chicago State, a team that hasn't won since way back on December 6th, and that victory came against the likes of Trinity Christian. Neither regular season meeting between these two teams was close, with New Mexico State winning by 44 and 34-point margins. Of course, there's a chance the Aggies could overlook the Cougars here, but I don't see it. New Mexico State took its foot off the gas in the second half against Cal Baptist in its regular season finale, outscored by 14 points over those 20 minutes. Here I look for a focused 40-minute effort from the Aggies. Take New Mexico State (10*). |
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03-13-19 | Jazz -7.5 v. Suns | 114-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. These teams appear to be heading in opposite directions and we've actually cashed with the Suns in each of their last two games including Sunday's stunning outright win at Golden State. However, I believe it's time to jump ship here as Phoenix returns home to host what will be a highly-motivated Jazz squad. Needless to say, this is a big letdown spot for the Suns. This is still a team that owns just 16 wins and a losing ATS record this season. The Jazz have dropped back-to-back games since a win and cover in New Orleans last week (we won with Utah in that game). Keep in mind, those two setbacks came against a surging Grizzlies squad and the Thunder. Utah should settle back in here against an opponent it defeated by 28 points in their lone previous meeting this season. Take Utah (10*). |
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03-13-19 | Houston Baptist v. Lamar -4 | Top | 79-81 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
NCAAB Southland Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Lamar minus the points over Houston Baptist at 6 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this matchup sets up for Lamar and why not? After all, the Cardinals just defeated the Huskies by 35 points back in February. In fact, Lamar has lost only two games dating back to January 26th and those came against the two best teams in the Southland Conference, Abilene-Christian and Sam Houston State. Houston Baptist has played much better basketball since the start of February, finishing eighth in the Southland Conference. The Huskies did defeat Lamar by six points at home back on January 2nd with Ian DuBose going off for 33 points in that overtime victory. That one clearly could have gone either way and the Cardinals certainly proved their superiority in the aforementioned next meeting. I'll lay the relatively short number here. Take Lamar (10*). |
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03-12-19 | Blazers v. Clippers +2.5 | 125-104 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Portland at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Clippers are rolling right now, winners of five games in a row to strengthen their playoff positioning in the Western Conference. Just last night they put up 140 points in a rout of the Celtics. I look for them to keep it going on Tuesday night against the Blazers. Portland has been playing well also but we cashed a ticket fading them against the lowly Suns last time out and that makes it there ATS losses in a row following a seven-game ATS winning streak. The Clippers rank second in the league in offensive rating and sixth in defensive rating over their last five games. The Blazers aren't far behind at fifth in the league in offensive rating over that stretch but leave a lot to be desired defensively, ranking 23rd. This has been a tightly-contested series with three previous meetings decided by a total of 18 points this season. Look for the Clips to even up the season series here. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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03-12-19 | Bucks -9 v. Pelicans | 130-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with the Bucks as they aim to bounce back from a loss in San Antonio on Sunday. The Pelicans lead the league in pace rating over their last five games but I think that works against them in this matchup. The Bucks can run with the best of them and rank eighth in the league in offensive rating over their last five contests. While the Pelicans find themselves in the bottom-third of the league in defensive rating over that stretch, the Bucks sit 16th. After a bit of a surge, the wheels have come off for the Pelicans over their last few games and I look for continuation of that here. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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03-11-19 | Raptors -9.5 v. Cavs | 101-126 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Fresh off a blowout win in Miami yesterday I look for the Raptors to keep rolling against another inferior opponent in Cleveland on Monday night. Toronto is rounding into form at the defensive end of the floor, just as we expected they would after acquiring Marc Gasol at the trade deadline. The Raps check in eighth in the league in defensive rating over their last five games, and actually sit an identical eighth in offensive rating as well. The Cavs have held their own lately at the offensive end of the floor, ranking 10th in the league in offensive rating over their last five contests. I just don't see them having a great deal of success against the Raptors in that regard tonight, and it's certainly worth noting that Cleveland ranks 29th in the league in defensive rating over that same stretch. With Kawhi Leonard likely back in the lineup for the Raps, I'll lay the points here. Take Toronto (10*). |
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03-10-19 | Suns +17 v. Warriors | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Golden State at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Suns last night in Portland and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as Phoenix goes on to face the Warriors in Oakland on Sunday night. The Suns now rank an impressive fourth in the league in pace rating over their last five games. They also find themselves in the top half of the league in both offensive and defensive rating over that same stretch. The Warriors continue to push the tempo, ranking second in pace rating over their last five games but they haven't made the most of it, sitting 23rd in offensive rating and 19th in defensive rating over that time frame. Shooting for a fifth straight ATS win, I'll back the Suns here. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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03-10-19 | Rockets -8 v. Mavs | 94-93 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Dallas at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Rockets as they aim to continue their surge in Dallas on Sunday night. Houston has won seven games in a row SU and three straight ATS heading into this one. The Rockets rank fourth in the league in offensive rating and eighth in defensive rating over their last five contests. By contrast, the Mavs have hit a wall. They check in 29th in offensive rating and 27th in defensive rating over their last five games. Houston has dropped two of three meetings against Dallas this season but in their lone matchup since the start of 2019 the Rockets prevailed by 16 points. Despite suffering a wrist injury on Friday night, James Harden is expected to play for the Rockets on Sunday night. Even if he doesn't, I still like Houston here. Take Houston (10*). |
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03-09-19 | Suns +12.5 v. Blazers | Top | 120-127 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this game sets up for the underdog Suns. Phoenix has been playing some of its best basketball of the season, having reeled off three straight wins, albeit with each of those victories coming at home. I do expect the Suns to stay competitive as they hit the road to face the Blazers on Saturday night. Portland has dropped the cash in back-to-back games and has earned just one straight-up victory over its last four contests. It's been 'crazy 8's' for the Suns lately as entering last night's action, they ranked eighth in the league in pace rating, offensive rating and defensive rating over their last five games. Over that same period, Portland finds itself much farther down the pecking order. Notably, the Blazers rank in the bottom half of the league in both pace rating and defensive rating over their last five games. Phoenix is playing with some confidence right now and it should relish the role of spoiler once again on Saturday. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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03-09-19 | Western Illinois v. South Dakota State -15 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
NCAAB Summit League Game of the Year. My selection is on South Dakota State minus the points over Western Illinois at 7 pm et on Saturday. We just saw this same matchup one week ago with the Jackrabbits rolling to a 20-point victory. I don't see this one playing out much differently as the two teams do battle in the Summit League Tournament. There's a major class difference between these two squads. The Leathernecks have managed only three victories since the start of January and none of those wins were considered major upsets. This obviously would be. South Dakota State finished the regular season tops in the Summit League but I don't expect it to let its guard down here, noting that the Jackrabbits have been involved in some close games against tough opposition lately, with four of their last five games being decided by single-digits. Keep in mind, those closer games came against the second, third, fourth and fifth-place teams in the Summit League. This one has blowout written all over it. Take South Dakota State (10*). |
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03-08-19 | Pistons -3.5 v. Bulls | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Pistons have won three games in a row and six of their last seven overall to strengthen their position in the Eastern Conference playoff race. While a letdown could be in order against the lowly Bulls on Friday night, I don't see it happening. Note that Detroit ranks last in the league in pace rating over its last five games but that hasn't really had an adverse effect as the Pistons rank second in the league in offensive rating over that same stretch. They also rank top 10 in defensive rating over that time frame. The Bulls pace has shown signs of lagging lately as they rank in the bottom-third of the league over their last five games in that category. Meanwhile, they've been middle of the pack in both offensive and defensive rating. The Bulls haven't defeated the Pistons since January of last year, dropping all five meetings since. Take Detroit (10*). |
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