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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-09-22 | Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 54 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on CIN. When the bookmakers tell you that the Ravens are favored by more than a field goal here, they might as well be saying "don't believe you're lying eyes". Forget about the fact that they rank dead last in the NFL against the pass, and their struggling secondary could be without Marcus Peters this week. Never mind that the Bengals swept the season series last year. Well I ain't buying it. The Bengals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall, and they have covered in six of their last seven road games. Cinci looks like the better team at the moment, and I expect them to win this game OUTRIGHT! GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-09-22 | Cowboys +5.5 v. Rams | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 50 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on DAL. The Rams are the defending champs, coming off an ugly loss on the road at San Francisco. The betting public might well view this week's home game against the Cowboys as a good bounce back spot for the champs. It's not really a great matchup for a struggling QB (Stafford) who has two more INTs than he does TDs. He faces a Cowboys defense that ranks Top 5 in the NFL against the pass, allowing 171 yards per game. Stafford is playing behind an offensive line in shambles, and he's failed to connect with any WR not named Cooper Kupp. The visitors may have their backup QB under center, but he's undefeated in four career starts. I'll take the points here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-09-22 | Dolphins v. Jets +6 | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 230 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the Jets. The Dolphins come into New York as the favorite, asked to cover points despite missing their starting QB and potentially a handful of key position players. After going undefeated in the pre-season, the Jets are off to a rather dubious 2-2 start. Both their wins have come on the road, and both the result of improbable fourth quarter comebacks. Lets not kid ourselves and confuse these Jets with what you can consider a "good" football team. The fact is these kids have some momentum, and plenty of reason to believe that they are never out of it. That can be a dangerous thing when they are a home dog against a banged up road favorite with so many distractions. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-08-22 | Florida State v. NC State -155 | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 78 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NC State. So who's in a let down spot here? The Wolfpack are coming off a double digit loss at Clemson, while the Seminoles are coming off a double digit loss at home to Wake Forest. The good news for NC State is at least they are healthy, while FSU has been decimated by injuries. History certainly favors the home team, as the Seminoles are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Raleigh, and they are 3-17-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings overall. The Wolfpack are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games, and they have covered in seven straight coming off a loss. They are the better team, and I expect them to prove it here versus FSU. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-08-22 | BYU +4 v. Notre Dame | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on BYU. So the 4-1 Cougars ranked #16 in the country are actually an underdog in a neutral site game against unranked 2-2 Notre Dame. So clearly Vegas is telling us that the Irish are the better team? Better where exactly? Drew Pyne looked great against North Carolina last week, but he hasn't proved anything against any top defenses. Jaren Hall comes in with 1,438 yards a dozen TDs and just one INT, and he's faced two ranked opponents. The knock on BYU is that they lost by 20 on the road at Oregon, a week after they beat a Top 10 ranked Baylor team at home in double overtime. The Cougars have been without their top two WR Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney for most of the season, but both should be good to go for Saturday's game. In my mind this is a matchup between one of the most underrated teams of the past decade (BYU) and one of the most overrated teams of the past decade (Notre Dame). The most impressive thing I've seen from Notre Dame this season is losing to Ohio State by just 11. I expect the Cougars to win this game outright, but I certainly don't see them losing by more than a FG. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-08-22 | Utah -170 v. UCLA | 32-42 | Loss | -170 | 113 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Utah. So the 4-1 Utah Utes are road chalk against a 5-0 UCLA Bruins game? Well that's one way to look at it. The other way to look at it is that UCLA ranks 129th in FBS in strength of schedule. Utah would be sitting at 5-0 if it wasn't for a potential game winning drive ending in an interception in the endzone. Since then Cam Rising has thrown for 12 TDs and just one INT in four straight wins. Utah is a proven commodity, when it comes to talent, experience, and coaching. UCLA is an unproven team with a coach that hasn't been relevant in over a decade. The recipe for success for Utah should be to keep UCLA's offense on the sideline, and their defense on the field. They are certainly equipped to do just that. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-08-22 | Tennessee -145 v. LSU | 40-13 | Win | 100 | 83 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Tennessee. At first glance it might be tempting to take LSU as a home dog here, but I think this situation sets up nicely for the Vols. Tennessee should benefit from an extra week to rest and prepare for this game, while the Tigers are banged up coming off a lucky win over Auburn. Jayden Daniels threw for just 80 yards on 8-of-20 passing versus Auburn, and he's thrown just one TD pass in his last three starts. That's not going to get it done against the high flying Vols offense and Hendon Hooker. The Vols weakness is their secondary, but LSU doesn't appear to have the tools to exploit that. The Tigers strength is their running game, and the Vols have been pretty damn good at defending the run. The early start also favors the visitors, as Death Valley at night is no picnic. My money is on Tennessee to keep rolling. GL. Jesse Schule |
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10-08-22 | Texas -7 v. Oklahoma | 49-0 | Win | 100 | 83 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Texas. Oklahoma is in tough here in the Red River Rivalry, with their starting QB banged up and a defense that can't stop anybody. Texas should get QB Quinn Ewers back this week, and he will be licking his chops with a chance to face this Sooners defense. The Horned Frogs racked up 668 yards last week in a 55-24 upset win over Oklahoma last Saturday. This is a situation where little brother (Texas), finally has a shot to embarrass big brother (Oklahoma). The Longhorns are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games, and they have covered in seven of their last 10 Red River Rivalry games. The Sooners aren't saying much about Dylan Gabriel, but it would be a surprise if he's able to get back on the field this week. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-06-22 | Colts +3.5 v. Broncos | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 43 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the Colts. Indy was favored to win the AFC South heading into the season, but after winning just one of their first four games they are one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL so far. So what went wrong? Matt Ryan ranks 4th in the NFL in passing, but he's thrown as many picks (5) as he has TDs. He's also fumbled an NFL worst nine times. Jonathan Taylor has been banged up and hasn't been as productive as he was last season. Indy appears to be due for some positive regression. The Broncos have plenty of issues of their own, and their problems might not be as easy to fix. Injuries to Randy Gregory and Javonte Williams will hurt, and Nathaniel Hackett hasn't inspired much confidence as the head coach. Russell Wilson is battling shoulder soreness, and asking this team to cover a number seems a little optimistic. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-03-22 | Rams +110 v. 49ers | 9-24 | Loss | -100 | 114 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on LAR. Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco coaching staff made a mistake naming Trey Lance the starter in the offseason, and while they are fortunate they still have Jimmy G, it might take a while for him to get up to speed. He threw for 211 yards with a TD and an INT on 18-of-29 passing in a loss to the Broncos last Sunday. He threw for 232 yards, 2 TDs and an INT on 16-of-30 passing in a 20-17 loss to the Rams in last year's playoffs. San Francisco blew a 10 point lead in the fourth quarter of that game. It wasn't the first time that Shanahan blew a double digit lead in the playoffs, he's done it twice in the Super Bowl versus the Chiefs and the Patriots. The Rams should have an edge with Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. The favorite has failed to cover in seven straight meetings between these two teams, and I think the bookmakers made an error listing San Francisco as the favorite for this game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts -170 | 24-17 | Loss | -170 | 165 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on INDY. The Titans held on for a 24-22 win over the Raiders last week, despite fewer total yards and fewer first downs. It wasn't a particularly impressive win against another winless team, and once again Derrick Henry looked like a shell of his former self. Henry is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, and he hasn't ran for 100 yards in any of his three starts. As bad as the Colts looked in the first two weeks, they are coming off a win over the Chiefs and sit at 1-1-1 overall this season. This is a revenge spot for Indy after losing both games against the Titans last year. Jonathan Taylor should go off here against a Titans defense that ranks 27th in rushing defense. I'll take the home team in this divisional rivalry game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-02-22 | Washington Commanders v. Cowboys -150 | 10-25 | Win | 100 | 165 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Dallas. The Cowboys will have Cooper Rush under center again in Week 4, and so far he's getting the job done filling in for Dak Prescott. The Cowboys host Washington, who they owned last season. The Cowboys are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 divisional games, and they are 6-0 ATS in their last six versus a team with a losing record. Carson Wentz was sacked nine times in last week's loss to Philly, and that doesn't bode well against a Dallas defense that has terrorized opposing QBs this season. The Commanders are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss, and they have failed to cover in six of their last eight versus the NFC East. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-02-22 | Vikings -145 v. Saints | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 46 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the Vikings. The Vikings are 2-1 with their only loss coming on the road at Philadelphia, and they head to London to take on a Saints team that has lost back to back games. The Saints are banged up, with both their starting QB and their top WR for this game. Alvin Kamara hasn't been healthy for a long time, and he's only run for 100 yards in two games this season. It should come as no surprise that he's also listed as questionable. This looks like a tough spot for the Saints facing a mostly healthy Vikings team with all the weapons they have on offense. The Saints are 4-10 ATS versus a team with a winning record. Andy Dalton's last start came in a 31-17 loss to the Vikings, and the threw for 325 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs on 33-of-48 passing in that game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-01-22 | Virginia v. Duke -155 | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 77 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on DUKE. The Blue Devils are coming off their first loss of the season on the road at Kansas. They gained 463 yards of offense and QB Riley Leonard threw for 324 yards and a TD on 24-of-35 passing in the loss. They return home to host Virginia, a team that appears to be in disarray. Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong was held to 138 yards with a TD and an INT on 19-of-38 passing in the loss to Syracuse last week. While it appeared to be a close game, the Orange actually dominated total yards, first downs and time of possession. This is a huge revenge game for Duke, after losing 48-0 at Virginia last year. These programs have trended in the opposite direction since, and the Cavaliers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Duke. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-01-22 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -165 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 73 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MISST. Offensive futility has been the theme for the Aggies so far this season, and losing their leading WR Senior Ainias Smith for the rest of the season is going to make matters worse. They were quite lucky that Arkansas missed a 42 yard FG in the last two minutes of last week's 22-20 home win. They were on the wrong side of total yards, first downs and time of possession in that game. They are on the road for the first time this week, and it might be a tough ask to hang with the Bulldogs in Starkville. Will Rogers ranks second nationally in passing with 1386 yards (two yards fewer than Michael Penix). Rogers had a monster game at College Station last year, throwing for 408 yards and three TDs on 46-of-59 passing in a 26-22 win. The Aggies played three true road games last season, and lost two of them. They have failed to cover in four of their last five road games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-01-22 | Iowa State v. Kansas +3.5 | 11-14 | Win | 100 | 127 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Kansas. Stop asking if Kansas is for real! That's not a real question anymore. They beat Duke, West Virginia and Houston, and they scored an average of 46 points in those games. Cyclones QB Hunter Dekkers has thrown more picks than TDs in conference play so far. Playing on the road in Lawrence against a team that puts points on the board in a hurry isn't an ideal spot for this Iowa State offense. Jalon Daniels comes in completing over 70 percent of his passes for 890 yards with 11 TDs and just one INT. He's lighting it up, and it's no longer sensible to say: "He hasn't played anybody". I like Kansas to extend their winning streak here, but even if they are down by 10 late, this is a team that is fully capable of getting that late TD in garbage time for a back door cover. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-01-22 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor -130 | 36-25 | Loss | -130 | 123 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Baylor. This Baylor team has proved itself, last week on the road at Iowa State, and even in a losing effort on the road at BYU. I don't think it's fair to say that Oklahoma State has proven anything so far. All three of their games were at home against inferior opponents. They gave up 44 points to a MAC team in Week 1. They beat Arizona State, but the Sun Devils lost by a similar score to a MAC team the following week. They come into this, their first road game of the season off a blowout win over Arkansas Pine Bluff. The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games, and they owned the Cowboys in the BIG12 Championship Game last year. Spencer Saunders threw for 257 yards, no TDs and 4 INTs in that game. Blake Shapen three for three TDs in that game, and he's picked up right where he left off. He's completed almost 70 percent of his passes for 773 yards with 7 TDs and just one INT so far this season. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-01-22 | Illinois +8 v. Wisconsin | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 123 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Illinois. The Badgers are asked to cover a big number here at home when you consider that they are 0-2 versus Power Five schools. Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz threw for just 94 yards, 1 TD and an INT on 11-of-20 passing against Ohio State last week. Illinois comes in with a 2-1 record, and a defense that ranks Top 10 nationally allowing just eight points per game. While this will be their toughest test yet, they looked pretty good completely shutting down Virginia and Wyoming. If it wasn't for blowing a lead in the final seconds at Indiana, this team would be 4-0. Brett Bielema's team has the nation's leading rusher Chase Brown, and in a game that could be a war of attrition he could be a real factor. The under is 11-3 in the Fighting Illini last 14 games overall, and another low scoring close game should be expected in Madison. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-30-22 | UTSA v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 65 | 45-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. Middle Tennessee is coming of a stunning upset as a 25 point underdog at Miami, winning that game outright by a score of 45-31. This might set them up for a let down on Friday night against UTSA. The Roadrunners are 2-2 with a pair of losses to ranked teams. Both these teams can score in a hurry, and neither team has inspired much confidence on defense. To put it into perspective, the Roadrunners gave up over 300 passing yards to Army (yes Army). The Blue Raiders allowed 44 points and six passing TDs in a loss to a an FCS team in Week 1. The over is 10-1 in the Roadrunners last 11 games overall, and they have gone over in seven straight road games. I see both these teams scoring 30+ here in this game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-25-22 | Rams -175 v. Cardinals | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 99 h 6 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the Rams. The Rams are coming off a 31-27 win over Atlanta, failing to cover for the second Sunday in a row. That game was not as close as the final score would indicate. The Rams had a 28-3 lead in the third quarter, and Atlanta scored 17 points in garbage time in the 4th quarter. Arizona appeared to be dead to rights in Las Vegas last week, but they scored a pair of TDs and converted a pair of two-point conversions in the final minutes to force overtime, and then won the game on a fumble return for TD. Arizona is still a mess, and Sean McVay versus Kliff Kingsbury is a coaching mismatch of epic proportions. History favors the Rams, as they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven at Arizona. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-25-22 | Bills v. Dolphins OVER 50.5 | 19-21 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. It's not Josh Allen who leads the NFL in passing after two weeks, but Tua Tagovailoa. He threw for 469 yards and six TDs in last week's 42-38 win over the Ravens. He's got has hands full this week against the Buffalo Bills who lead the league in scoring. These teams have a history of playing high scoring games, as the over is 10-4 in the last 14 head to head meetings. It sure looks like the dynamic duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill has turned the Dolphins into an offensive juggernaut. We should expect both these teams to get their share of points, and this total appears to be a bit on the low side. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-25-22 | Raiders v. Titans | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 48 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LV. The Raiders opened up a 20-0 lead in the first half against Arizona last week, and they had a 23-7 lead in the fourth quarter. Somehow they suffered an epic meltdown, allowing Arizona to score a pair of late TDs and a pair of two-point conversions. Then the Raiders fumbled in overtime losing 29-23. While these are the type of losses that are tough to come back from, they face a Tennessee team that has more than it's share of problems. The offensive line was already a mess, and then last week they lost Taylor Lewan and Rodger Saffold. Derrick Henry looks like a shell of his former self, and Ryan Tannehill continues to regress. The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Tennessee, and the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-25-22 | Eagles -195 v. Washington Commanders | 24-8 | Win | 100 | 127 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on PHI. The Eagles are flying, coming into Washington off back to back wins. They held Kirk Cousins to 221 yards with a TD and three INTs on Monday night. Perhaps that was a preview of what former Eagles QB Carson Wentz can look forward to here on Sunday. Wentz threw for 337 yards and three TDs in a loss to the Lions last week, and he was sacked five times in that game. It won't get any easier against Philly. The Eagles swept the season series last year, and they appear to be primed to run away with the NFC East in 2022. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-24-22 | USC v. Oregon State +7 | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 103 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Oregon State. The Beavers are no joke at home, just ask Utah. The Utes lost in Corvallis last year, their only loss in conference play. The Beavers also won at USC last year, and now they are getting points as a home dog in this year's rematch. The Trojans won big as a home favorite versus Fresno State last week, but the Bulldogs played half of that game without QB Jake Haener. The Trojans are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games at Oregon State, and the underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. The Beavers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games. Expect this to be shootout, last team with the ball wins. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-24-22 | Arkansas +2.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 87 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARK. So I had the Aggies last week, and they won and covered at home versus Miami. So Texas A&M is back right? You know what Lee Corso would say... Not so fast my friends. Jimbo Fisher still has plenty of problems with this offense, and last week they got quite lucky against the Hurricanes. Miami had a 392-264 edge in total yards, and a 27-16 edge in first downs. Max Johnson stepped in at QB for the Aggies and threw for 140 yards and a TD on just 10-of-20 passing. That just won't cut it against an Arkansas team that can put points on the board. The Razobacks come in averaging 38 points per game, and it's not like they haven't played anybody. They impressed in wins over Cincinnati and South Carolina. KJ Jefferson has thrown for 770 yards, six TDs and one INT, and he's ran for 169 yards and three TDs. If the Aggies play the way they did against Miami, they will likely lose this game by double digits. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-24-22 | Duke v. Kansas -7 | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 94 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Kansas. Neither Kansas or Duke were supposed to be undefeated at this point, and most will wonder if these teams are for real. Duke has just one real victory they can hang their hat on, and that's a 31-23 win at Northwestern. When the Wildcats lost at home to Southern Illinois the following week, the strength of that win diminished. Kansas on the other hand has won back to back road games against Power Five teams, scoring over 100 points combined in those games. This team ranks in the Top 10 nationally scoring 51 points per game. It seems like a tough ask for Duke to do what West Virginia and Houston failed to do. The Blue Devils are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-22-22 | West Virginia -120 v. Virginia Tech | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 54 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on West Virginia. The Mountaineers lost back to back games to start the season, but in Week 1 they lost a close game on the road against a ranked Pitt team, and then they were upset in a shootout at home versus Kansas. This Virginia Tech team doesn't have near the offensive prowess that either of those teams possess. The Hokies offense ranks 174th nationally averaging just 23 points per game, and QB Grant Wells has thrown as many picks as he has TDs. What's most concerning about those stats is that they haven't really played anybody. Last week they scored just 27 points against Wofford, failing to cover as a -38 point favorite. The Hokies are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win, and they have failed to cover in six straight non conference games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-19-22 | Vikings +2.5 v. Eagles | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Minny. Turn on the TV and all the analysts will tell you how bad Kirk Cousins is in Monday Night Football games. i honesty think that's a ridiculous thing to believe, that he is significantly worse on Monday than he is on Sunday afternoon. While he's 2-9 straight up in Monday night games, his QBR in those games is actually pretty good. His chemistry with Justin Jefferson and new head coach Kevin O'connell looked pretty good last week. The defense looked equally as impressive, holding Aaron Rodgers to 195 yards and an INT, and sacking him twice. The Eagles don't look bad either, but at the end of the day they beat the lions and still gave up a ton of points. Jalen Hurts was flirting with an intentional grounding penalty all day. My read here is that the Vikes are getting points, and they have the better QB, RB, WRs, coaching is a wash, hard to say who's got the better defense. I'll take the dog. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-18-22 | Bengals v. Cowboys UNDER 52.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 160 h 30 m | Show |
This is play on Under. |
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09-18-22 | Jets +7 v. Browns | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 141 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NYJ. The Jets lost 24-9 to the Ravens in Week 1, despite holding an edge in total yards (380-274). The Browns kicked a 58 yard FG in the final seconds to come from behind and win 26-24 in Cleveland. It sure seems like the Browns are asked to cover a lot of points for a team with such a one dimensional offense. The Jets have a history of playing close games against Cleveland, covering the spread in six of the last eight meetings. The Browns have failed to cover in five straight as a favorite, and they have failed to cover in four of their last five home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-18-22 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Ravens | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 126 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MIA. The Ravens beat the Jets in Week 1 but it come at a cost. Left Tackle JaWuan James tore his Achilles in Week 1, and Ronnie Stanley is listed as doubtful this week. Despite what appeared to be a one sided win against the Jets, the Ravens were actually outgained 380-274 in total yards. Miami should pose a much bigger threat here than their Week 1 opponent. Tua connected with Tyreek Hill for eight receptions for 94 yards, and Jalen Waddle had 69 yards and a TD on four grabs. Miami's defense held the Patriots to just seven points on 271 total yards of offense. The Ravens are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win, and I don't think they should be favored by three and the hook. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-17-22 | Miami-FL v. Texas A&M -190 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 68 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Aggies. So the Aggies lose last week to App State, and now Jimbo Fisher is on the hot seat. Keep in mind that Miami played App State last year and won by just two points. I definitely think that people are overreacting to the loss to the Mountaineers. A change at QB might help the Aggies turn things around here at home versus Miami. The Hurricanes are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games, and they have failed to cover in six of their last eight coming off a win. The Aggies are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 non-conference games. I expect a far better showing from the Aggies this week. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-17-22 | Texas Tech v. NC State -10 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 66 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NC State. Texas Tech is in a tough spot here this week, playing on the road in Raleigh off a double overtime win over Houston. They also have Texas on deck next week, which could prove to be a distraction here against the Wolfpack. While Donovan Smith has played well for the Red Raiders, he's up against a fourth year starter that may well be playing on Sundays in a year or two. Devin Leary has picked up where he left off last season when he threw for 3,433 yards, 35 TDs and just 5 INTs. The Red Raiders are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win. The Wolfpack are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-17-22 | BYU v. Oregon -165 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 119 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Oregon. The Ducks stock crashed after losing 49-3 to Georgia in Week 1, but I don't think it would be wise to overreact to that result. They were a double digit dog in that game, and Georgia is the #1 ranked team in the country. Last week they got the offense going, scoring 70 points in a home win over Eastern Washington. BYU is coming off an impressive win over Baylor, but this could be a let down spot after a double OT win. The Cougars missed their top two receivers last week, and it's unclear if either Puka Nacua or Gunner Romney will be available on Saturday. This is a game the Ducks are supposed to win, and it's asking a lot for BYU to keep up offensively. The Cougars have failed to cover in four of their last five road games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-16-22 | Florida State -140 v. Louisville | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on FSU. So Louisville bounced back with a solid win over UCF after getting blown out by Syracuse in their season opener. Or did they? Well that win over Central Florida might say more about the Knights than it does about the Cardinals. Malik Cunningham threw for only 201 yards on less than 50% passing, without a TD. Louisville was lucky to be in the game at halftime, and they were able to come back in the second half. Mike Norvell has this Florida State team firing on all cylinders, and at this point it looks like Jordan Travis is a superior quarterback. The Cardinals are 12-28-1 ATS in their last 41 versus a team with a winning record. The Seminoles have had a bye week to rest and prepare for this game, and I like FSU to get the win on the road in this spot. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +3.5 v. Chiefs | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 79 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LAC. The Chiefs were impressive in a win at Arizona in Week 1, but that game might say more about the Cardinals than it does about the Chiefs. They should face a much tougher test on Thursday night in a home game against the Chargers. Home field hasn't proved to be much of an advantage in recent meetings between these teams. The home team has lost seven of the last eight meetings straight up. Going back even further, the road team is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 meetings. The Chargers are 36-16-4 ATS in their last 56 games as a road underdog. LA dominated defensively in their win over the Raiders in Week 1. They sacked Derek Carr five times and forced him to throw three INTs. I like LA to give the Chiefs all they can handle on Thursday night. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-11-22 | Bucs v. Cowboys UNDER 50.5 | 19-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play Under. The teams played a high scoring game in Week 1 last year, but I am not expecting a repeat performance. Tom Brady is 45 years old and didn't practice for most of the pre-season. The Bucs lost their starting center, but they are still in far better shape than the Cowboys who will really miss Tyron Smith. Dak Prescott won't have Amari Cooper, and Ezekiel Elliott is trending in the wrong direction. The under is 9-3 in the Cowboys last 12 games overall, and they have failed to reach the total in four straight home games versus Tampa Bay. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-11-22 | Raiders v. Chargers -172 | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 282 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LAC. I expect the Raiders to be competitive in the AFC West this season, with Davante Adams teaming up with Derek Carr their offense might be great. This is just a terrible matchup for them in Week 1 on the road at LA. The mediocre Raiders offensive line versus the fearsome pass rush of the Chargers is a recipe for disaster for Derek Carr. Historically LA starts off hot, the Chargers are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 1. The Raiders lost 28-14 at LA last season, and a similar score should be expected here in Week 1. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-11-22 | Chiefs -175 v. Cardinals | 44-21 | Win | 100 | 282 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on KC. While I am not all that high on Kansas City this year, I am far less bullish on Arizona. Their offensive line is in shambles, and Kyler Murray turned into a bit of a drama queen in the off-season. They are going to miss DeAndre Hopkins, and I don't know how they can keep up to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. The Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games, and they have failed to cover in five of their last six overall. The coaching matchup with Andy Reid vs Kliff Kingsbury is another mismatch in favor of the visitors. I'll take KC to get the W. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-11-22 | Packers v. Vikings +110 | 7-23 | Win | 110 | 56 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MIN. The Packers come into Minnesota as a road favorite, and given the receiving corps Aaron Rodgers has to work with, I think this line is way off. Remember how Aaron Rodgers started off last season, could it be Deja Vu all over again? Kirk Cousins doesn't get any respect, and it seems like people forget that the Vikes have studs at WR, and one of the better running backs in the league. The Vikings are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a home underdog, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two rivals. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-11-22 | Eagles v. Lions OVER 48 | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 279 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. There is some optimism that the Lions will be better this year, particularly on offense. There is still plenty of reason to be skeptical of their defense. The Eagles come in with plenty of weapons, and they are projected to have the best offensive line in football. They should get their points. The Eagles scored 44 points at Detroit last year, and these two teams have gone over in eight straight head to head meetings. The over is 16-7 in Lions last 23 home games, and they have gone over in 16 of their last 21 season openers. You know they say that History Repeats Itself! GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-10-22 | Baylor v. BYU -160 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 116 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BYU. The Cougars return almost all the talent they had last year when they won 10 games, including a pair of wins over ranked teams. They only lost twice during the regular season, and one of those losses came by a score of 38-24 at Baylor. That sets up a revenge match here in Provo, and the Bears lost plenty of their talent off last year's roster. The Cougars are tough at home, winning 16 of their last 17 home games straight up. I think Baylor is due to take a major step back this season after overachieving in 2021. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-10-22 | Iowa State v. Iowa -165 | 10-7 | Loss | -165 | 60 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Iowa. The Hawkeyes are no stranger to winning ugly, but after a 7-3 win over South Dakota State in their season opener, people appear to be overreacting. Now struggling against an FCS team isn't a good look, but what kind of team is South Dakota State. They were the highest scoring team in the MVFC last season, averaging more points per game than North Dakota State (a team that people are likely familiar with). They won 11 games overall, beginning with a 42-23 win over Colorado State. They also won a home game against North Dakota State. The Hawkeyes beat Iowa State by double digits last year. That Cyclones team had Brock Purdy and Breece Hall. The Hawkeyes are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games, and they are 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings in this series. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-10-22 | Houston +3.5 v. Texas Tech | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 60 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the Cougars. Houston was lucky to come from behind and win in overtime at UTSA in Week 1, but their stock has dropped heading into Week 2. They lost 38-21 at home to Texas Tech in Week 1 last year, but then went on to win 11 straight games. This sets them up for a revenge spot here in Lubbock. Clayton Tune threw four INTs in last year's loss to the Red Raiders, and then he only threw six INTs in his next 12 games. I expect Tune to be a lot better this time around, and this Red Raiders defense ranked dead last in the BIG12 against the pass last season. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS loss, and the Red Raiders are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-10-22 | Tennessee -5 v. Pittsburgh | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Tennessee. The Vols were pretty good last year, and they bring back a lot of talent in 2022. Most notably is their QB Hendon Hooker. The one game that they probably would like back is a home loss to Pitt. Hooker was not sharp, and Kenny Pickett lit up the Vols defense. No more Pickett, and no more Jordan Addison for Pitt. A revenge game for the Vols, and based on what we saw in the Backyard Brawl I don't see Pitt slowing down the Tennessee offense. The Vols scored a combined 107 points in road victories at Kentucky and Missouri last year. It's going to be tough for Slovis to match serves with Hooker. GL, Jesse Schule. |
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09-10-22 | UTSA -135 v. Army | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on UTSA. I bet against the Roadrunners in Week 1, and they almost burned me. I was impressed with the way they played against the Houston Cougars. From a situational standpoint, this looks like a classic let down spot for the Roadrunner, but as Lee Corso would say ... "Not so fast my friend". We shouldn't overthink this. UTSA is by far the more talented team here, and they showed in Week 1 that their offense is still a force to be reckoned with. The Army Black Knights had no answers for Coastal Carolina last week, allowing 38 points on 437 total yards. They should have their hands full here against the Roadrunners. The Roadrunners are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games, and they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 1078 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Buffalo. The Rams won a dozen games, finishing first in the NFC West and winning the Super Bowl last season. They will try to be the first back-to-back champions since the Patriots in 2004 and 2005. Statistically, it’s more likely that the team that won the Super Bowl the previous season misses the playoffs than it is for them to repeat as champions. Seven teams have won back-to-back Super Bowls, while nine teams since 1990 have won the Super Bowl and gone on to miss the playoffs. While the Rams look to avoid a Super Bowl Hangover, the Bills are looking to bounce back after being ousted by the Chiefs in last year's playoffs. The Bills are the only team heading into 2022 with a top 5 ranked offense and defense. They used two of their top three draft picks on defensive players, and the addition of veteran Von Miller will help the pass rush. Buffalo ranked 1st in the NFL in scoring defense allowing just 17 points per game last season. The Bills also ranked 1st in passing defense allowing just 163 passing yards per game. Josh Allen threw for 4,407 yards and 36 TDs last season, and he ran for another six scores on 122 carries for 763 yards. He delivered in the biggest game of his life (against KC), and he comes into the 2022 season as the MVP favorite (+700). GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-05-22 | Clemson -23 v. Georgia Tech | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Clemson. While it was a down year for the Tigers in 2021, they still won 10 games and ended the year on a six game winning streak. They struggled to blow out opponents last season, that said they won their final three games by an average margin of 29 points. They opened as a -22 favorite here against Georgia Tech, and that line has been bet up. Still below the key number of 24 I see some value here with the Tigers. Georgia Tech is in trouble this year, losing a ton of talent in the transfer portal. Lets not kid ourselves about a 14-8 win for Clemson last year, the average margin of victory in the previous three meetings was a whopping 44 points. They are asked to cover just half that here. We already saw #1 ranked Alabama and #3 ranked Georgia win by 40+ in their respective openers. Clemson wants to be in that class. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-03-22 | Utah -135 v. Florida | 26-29 | Loss | -135 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Utah. The PAC12 is weak and the SEC is strong. That's the narrative we have heard for the better part of the last decade, and while there is plenty of truth to that sentiment I don't think it applies here. I think if we are being honest with ourselves, we have to come to the conclusion that Utah has superior coaching, a better quarterback, more returning talent on both sides of the ball and all the continuity and stability that goes along with that. Florida on the other hand has a first year head coach with a quarterback that has been inconsistent. The Gators are 0-7 ATS in their last seven non-conference games and they have failed to cover in seven straight overall and four straight at home. This is just a bad matchup for the Gators in Week 1. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-03-22 | Cincinnati v. Arkansas -6 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 100 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Arkansas. After winning 13 games and becoming the first Group of Five team to make the College Football Playoffs last season, you have to think it’s inevitable that Cincinnati takes a step back in 2022. They lost nine starters to the NFL draft, including their starting quarterback and six defensive starters. They lost 27-6 in the Cotton Bowl versus Alabama, and the Crimson Tide ran for 301 yards on 47 carries in the victory. Playing on the road against an Arkansas team that was #1 in the SEC in rushing last year isn't ideal for the Bearcats. The Razorbacks were 6-1 at home last season, and 5-0 in non conference play. Oh BTW, that Alabama team that held Cincinnati to six points at a neutral site, just barely escaped with a 42-35 home win over Arkansas last year. I just don't think these teams are in the same class, Arkansas is BIGGER, FASTER, STRONGER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-03-22 | Houston -180 v. UTSA | Top | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 157 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Houston. UTSA won 11 straight games to start last season, and they beat Western Kentucky 49-41 in the C-USA Championship Game. They didn't face a ranked team until they played #24 ranked San Diego State in the Frisco Bowl. They open the season at home versus #24 ranked Houston, and this Cougars team appears to be undervalued. Clayton Tune is back for his senior year after throwing for 3,546 yards, 30 TDs and 10 INTs last year. His top target WR Nathaniel Dell is also coming back in 2022. The Cougars opened as a -6.5 point favorite, and this line has come down a few points. This allows us to make a play on the favorite to win straight up, and I can't see UTSA stopping a legit Heisman contender QB with an experienced offensive line and a stud WR. Dana Holgorsen's team has a real shot at being this season's version of the Cincinnati Bearcats, and I don't think they will allow their season to be derailed in Week 1. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-02-22 | Illinois +3 v. Indiana | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 69 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Illinois. Bret Beliema had everything going in the season opener against Wyoming. Illinois won 38-6, and many pundits have said that this says more about Wyoming than it does about Illinois. I am not sure I agree. Tommy Devito was accurate, throwing for 194 yards and two TDs on 27-of-37 passing. Illinois ran for 260 yards and three TDs, and they didn't turn the ball over. They executed on every level, and that should give them confidence heading into Indiana. It remains to be seen if the Hoosiers have improved after closing last season with eight straight losses. They may well be better, but I can't see it justifying them as a three-point favorite. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-01-22 | Penn State -165 v. Purdue | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 70 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Penn State. At first glance, a Purdue team that won nine games in 2021 looks pretty good as a home underdog versus a Penn State team that was just 7-6 overall last season. Of course the Boilermakers lost star wide receiver David Bell, but that didn't prevent them from beating Tennessee in the Music City Bowl. What's even more concerning for Purdue is the way they played against the bigger more physical teams in the BIG10 last year. They lost at home to Minnesota and Wisconsin, and in both of those losses they scored just 13 points. Adrian O'Connell was sacked a total of eight times in those losses. With the Nittany Lions coming off a down year, and Purdue coming off a breakout season, it's easy to see how recency bias would effect this line. Penn State is 8-0 straight up versus Purdue dating back to 2006, and all of those wins came by more than 3.5 points. Sean Clifford played poorly after getting injured last year, but he's going to be a lot better if he's healthy. The Nittany Lions likely have the better athletes on both sides of the ball. Under James Franklin they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in September, and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 BIG10 games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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08-27-22 | Northwestern +13.5 v. Nebraska | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 51 h 51 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on NW. The Huskers were 3-9 straight up last season, and somehow Scott Frost kept his job. He was aggressive in the transfer portal bringing in a whopping 22 new players. Nebraska has a new quarterback and a new offensive coordinator, but expectations are high heading into 2022. They opened as a 10-point favorite for this Week 0 matchup versus Northwestern, but this line has been bet up several points. I don't think Pat Fitzgerald is getting enough respect in this spot, especially given that this is a huge revenge spot after losing 56-7 at Nebraska last year. While the Wildcats didn't bring in as many high profile transfers as Nebraska, they do bring back a strong offensive line and a deep stable of running backs. Quarterback Ryan Hilinski is back, and if nothing else he has experience. Prior to Nebraska winning big last season, the previous six meetings were all close, decided by an average margin of 5.6 points. Bettors must have short memories to be backing Nebraska as a double digit favorite in their season opener. GL, Jesse Schule |
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02-13-22 | Rams -195 v. Bengals | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 257 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on LAR. The Bengals have had an impressive run, and I don't want to suggest that they don't deserve to be in the Super Bowl. That being said, it would be naive not to admit that they caught more than a few breaks along the way. Joe Burrow was sacked nine times in the win over Tennessee, and the Titans handed them the game by turning the ball over three times. They were trailing by double digits in the final minute of the first half at Kansas City, and the Chiefs failed to get any points with a 1st and goal at the 1. The Bengals weakness is their offensive line, and they match up against the scariest pass rush in the NFL. It seems like it's asking a hell of a lot of Joe Burrow to stay cool under pressure here in the Super Bowl. The Bengals have to try to contain Cooper Kupp, and they haven't been very successful against opposing WR1 in the playoffs. Hunter Renfrow had eight catches for 58 yards in the Wild Card Game. In the Divisional round it was A.J. Brown going off with five catches for 142 yards and a TD. In the AFC Championship Game Tyreek Hill caught seven passes for 78 yards and a TD. Now it's asking a lot of Eli Apple to cover the league's best receiver in the Super Bowl. My money is on the Rams and I don't think it will be close. I also have the following props: - Cooper Kupp Anytime TD - Rams 1st Half Alternative ATS -6.5 - Burrow over 0.5 INT - Rams Team total over 27.5. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams -165 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 167 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Rams. The Rams lost their final game of the regular season at home to San Francisco, but I expect it to play out differently here in the NFC Championship Game. It's a QB driven league, and Mathew Stafford just out-dueled The Goat. Jimmy G on the other hand has throw a pair of picks without any TD passes in the Playoffs so far. He's thrown six INTs in his last four starts. The Rams star studded defensive front terrorized Tom Brady last week, and they will have Jimmy G running for his life here in LA. San Francisco has gotten this far by playing a tough, physical brand of football, forcing turnovers and stealing games late. They are over-matched here and I don't think they can stop the Rams with all their weapons. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | 27-24 | Loss | -130 | 91 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on KC. The Bengals managed to win on the road at Tennessee last week despite QB Joe Burrow getting sacked nine times. They will have no hope here in Kansas City if they fail to protect Burrow, despite the fact that they beat the Chiefs 34-31 in Cincinnati just a few weeks ago. The Chiefs had a 28-17 lead at halftime in that game, and we could see both teams score their share of points here in Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 782 yards and eight TDs on 76 percent passing in the Playoffs so far. The Chiefs are 11-1 in their last 12 overall, and they have gone over the total in seven straight overall. Don't be surprised if Kansas City wins this one in a blowout 42-24. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 54 | 27-24 | Loss | -111 | 91 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. The Bengals managed to win on the road at Tennessee last week despite QB Joe Burrow getting sacked nine times. They will have no hope here in Kansas City if they fail to protect Burrow, despite the fact that they beat the Chiefs 34-31 in Cincinnati just a few weeks ago. The Chiefs had a 28-17 lead at halftime in that game, and we could see both teams score their share of points here in Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 782 yards and eight TDs on 76 percent passing in the Playoffs so far. The Chiefs are 11-1 in their last 12 overall, and they have gone over the total in seven straight overall. Don't be surprised if Kansas City wins this one in a blowout 42-24. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-23-22 | Bills +2.5 v. Chiefs | 36-42 | Loss | -109 | 88 h 51 m | Show | |
5* |
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01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs -140 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -140 | 135 h 17 m | Show |
DO NOT PLAY **ERROR** |
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01-22-22 | 49ers v. Packers -5.5 | 13-10 | Loss | -102 | 40 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Packers. The 49ers dominated the first half in their win at Dallas last weekend, but they just barely held on in a game that went down to the wire. Playing on the road in a cold weather game in Green Bay is going to be a far tougher test. The Packers are well rested, and they are as healthy as they have been all year. San Francisco picked up a few injuries against the Cowboys, none more significant than QB Jimmy Garoppolo. He complained about a shoulder injury after taking hit in the first half, and his first half quarterback rating was healthy 106.3 (11/14, 133 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT) but after the shoulder injury, the second half QB rating was a paltry 4.0 (3/11, 39 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT). He's been picked off five times in his last three starts, and if the Packers get a sizeable lead, it will put a ton of pressure on him. The Packers won at SF during the season, and Davante Adams had 12 catches for 132 yards and a TD. There's no defense for the Rodgers/Adams duo, and that's bad news for San Francisco. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans -178 | 19-16 | Loss | -178 | 61 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Titans. The Bengals were impressive in a home win over the Raiders on Wild Card Weekend, however the Raiders were just nine yards away from tying the game in the final minute. That is despite the fact that both Cincinnati's TD drives came with controversy. The first TD came after a missed call on what appeared to be offensive PI, and the officials missed an inadvertent whistle on their second TD. The Bengals defensive line suffered a few injuries in the game, and that could be a huge weakness against a well rested Titans team that welcomes back Derrick Henry. The Bengals are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight playoff games. Cinci might have the better QB, but that may not matter if they can't stop Derrick Henry. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -186 | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 89 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on LAR. The Cardinals come into the playoffs losing four of their last five regular season games, while the Rams won five of their final fsix games. LA stacked the roster, going "All In" for the Super Bowl. The addition of Odell Backham Jr. has paid dividends, the former Cleveland Brown has scored five TDs in eight games since joining the team. That's five more than he had in six games in Cleveland. The Cardinals are a bit banged up, with James Connor dealing with sore ribs and Chase Edmonds sitting out the season finale with a rib injury. The biggest loss is DeAndre Hopkins, who hasn't played since mid December. The Rams have home field, more weapons, and they played better football down the stretch. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-16-22 | 49ers v. Cowboys UNDER 51 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 63 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* GOY play on Under. The Cowboys have looked like Super Bowl favorites at times, but they haven't been at their best lately. Don't be fooled by their big win over the Eagles, in a game that Philly rested all their starters. Perhaps a more accurate indicator would be their home loss to Arizona a week earlier. They host a San Francisco team that poses a similar challenge. The Niners are going to try to punch the Cowboys in the mouth. What that means is, they will look to run the ball and control the clock, keeping the ball out of the hands of Dak Prescott. The Niners have failed to reach the total in five of their last six playoff games. The under is 8-3 in the Cowboys last 11 games overall, and Dallas is 1-5 ATS in their last six playoff games. The total for this contest is higher than it had been in each of the last six head to head meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-16-22 | Eagles +9.5 v. Bucs | 15-31 | Loss | -119 | 57 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over 17.5 (team total). The Bucs are a 7.5 point favorite at home versus Philly, and with all the injuries for Tampa this game might be closer than some would expect. The Bucs beat the Eagles 28-22 in Philly during the regular season, and Leonard Fournette ran for 81 yards and two TDs on 22 carries. Fournette won't play in this game due to a hamstring injury. Antonio Brown caught nine passes for 93 yards and a TD, and we know he's no longer on the team. Mike Evans is the last man standing in what was a stacked receiving corps, and with a thin backfield he should get plenty of work today. The Eagles offense ranks below average in the league scoring just over 22 points per game, but in the 11 games since losing to Tampa, they have averaged 28 points per game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-15-22 | Patriots +4 v. Bills | 17-47 | Loss | -103 | 44 h 55 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on NE. The Patriots ran for 222 yards and two TDs in a 14-0 win in a snow storm in Buffalo in December, and that game exposed the flaws of this Bills team. They rely too heavily on the arm of Josh Allen, and it cost them. They likely won't have to deal with snow this time around, but the forecast calls for temperatures of -12. The Patriots are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 meetings in Buffalo, and they are getting more points in this game than they were in their last visit to Orchard Park. In a game that has a high probability of being decided by a field goal, I am getting the team with the better coach and I am getting 4+ points? Sign me up. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-15-22 | Raiders +5.5 v. Bengals | 19-26 | Loss | -109 | 61 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Vegas. Everyone is talking about Joe Burrow and the Bengals. They won three of their final four games, clinching the division. Keep in mind only one of those wins came by more than five points. The Raiders aren't getting much hype at all, despite ending the season on a four game winning streak. Joe Burrow might be the more talented QB (remains to be seen), but at 30 years of age Derek Carr has 30 game winning drives under his belt. He holds an NFL record with 24 fourth quarter comebacks. The Bengals are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven Wildcard games, and the fact that they are favored by more than a FG suggests that recency bias is at play here. I'll take the points with the veteran QB on a team with the exact same record. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-10-22 | Georgia -135 v. Alabama | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 90 h 52 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on UGA. The Bulldogs were heavily favored in the SEC Championship game, but Bryce Young threw for 421 yards and three TDs in a 41-24 win for Alabama. With the two teams meeting again in the National Championship game, I am reminded of the words of an infamous American President. "There's an old saying in Tennessee, I know it's in Texas probably too... that says: fool me once, shame... shame on you. You fool me, you can't get fooled again!" I think what George W Bush was referring to is that it's difficult to get away with the same trick twice. It's not easy to beat a team twice in a season, especially when the other team is the betting favorite. Georgia's defense hald opposing QBs to an average of fewer than 160 passing yards per game before the loss to Alabama. The Bulldogs defense held Michigan QB Cade McNamarra to 106 yards, no TDs and two INTs on 11-of-19 passing in the Orange Bowl. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-09-22 | Chargers -153 v. Raiders | 32-35 | Loss | -153 | 17 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Chargers. The Chargers will be in Sin City for what looks like a play in game versus the Raiders. The winner of this game will go to the post-season, and the Chargers appear to be in a good spot to get the win on the road. The Raiders lost 28-14 at LA earlier this year, and Justin Herbert threw for 222 yards and three TDs on 25-of-38 passing. Austin Ekeler ran for 117 yards and a TD and caught three passes for 38 yards and a TD. Ekeler comes into Week 18 with 18 TDs, and chances are he will add to that total here tonight. The Raiders have failed to cover in five of their last six home games versus LA. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-09-22 | Patriots -6 v. Dolphins | 24-33 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on New England. Not only is Miami eliminated from the playoffs, and the Patriots still have plenty to play for, but this is also a revenge spot for New England. The season opener at Foxboro was a 17-16 win for Miami. The Patriots were about to score the go-ahead TD when Damian Harris fumbled in the final minutes, allowing Miami to run out the clock. Tua Tagovaloa threw for 202 yards with a TD and an INT on 16-of-27 passing. Tagovaloa has thrown four picks in his last three starts, and New England's defense ranks second in the NFL with 23 INTs this season. The Dolphins have won seven of their last eight overall, but not one of those wins came against a team that is currently in a playoff spot. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-09-22 | Seahawks v. Cardinals -5.5 | 38-30 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on ARI. The Cardinals wrap up the season at home against division rivals Seattle, and this looks like a huge let down spot for the Seahawks. Russell Wilson threw four TD passes and Seattle scored 50+ points in a win over the Lions in their final home game last week. The Seahawks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up win, and they are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games. The Seahawks are 2-7-1 ATS in the last 10 head to head meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-04-22 | LSU v. Kansas State -180 | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 48 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on KSU. This looks like a mismatch with the LSU Tigers coming into the Texas Bowl without their starting QB, and an interim head coach. The Wildcats on the other hand are getting back their super senior starting QB Skyler Thompson, and his coach expects big things: "I think he's as healthy as he's been all year, to be honest with you, coming off the couple of injuries that he's had," Klieman said Saturday. "I see no ill effects of anything that has gone on." I'll take KSU as I feel they want this victory more than their opponent. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-03-22 | Browns -164 v. Steelers | 14-26 | Loss | -164 | 28 h 23 m | Show | |
5* |
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01-02-22 | Dolphins v. Titans -170 | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on Tennessee. This is a huge game for the home team, as the Titans are looking to clinch the AFC South. The Dolphins come in as winners of seven straight, but those wins are as phony as a $3 bill. They bet the Jets twice, the Giants, Texans, Panthers, Ravens and Saints. Last week's win over New Orleans started with a fourth string QB (Ian Book) throwing a pick six. Tua hasn't played all that well, even when the Dolphins have been winning. He faces an opportunistic Titans defense, and I expect him to struggle here in this road game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-02-22 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team +5 | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on WAS. The Washington Football team is coming off one of the ugliest losses in their history. They were completely out-classed by the Cowboys, trailing 42-7 at halftime. That loss effectively ends any hope of making the playoffs, so you might expect them to give up on the season. I seriously doubt that Ron Rivera has any interest in laying down in a home game against division rivals Philly. The Eagles are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win, and they scored just three points in the first half against New York last week. Jalen Hurts has thrown as many picks (3) as he has TDs in his last three starts. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-02-22 | Chiefs -180 v. Bengals | 31-34 | Loss | -180 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on KC. The Bengals are coming off their most impressive game of the season, a 20-point win over the Ravens. The Bengals have only beaten one team with a winning record all season, and that's Baltimore. Keep in mind that the Ravens had their 3rd string QB Josh Johnson running the offense last week. This week they face Super Bowl favorites Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes. The Bengals are an exciting young team, but this looks like a tough game in a let down spot. The Bengals are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win, and the Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-01-22 | Arkansas -135 v. Penn State | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Arkansas. Both these team come into this bowl game without their top WR, but that's not going to stop the Razorbacks. Arkansas ranked 3rd in the SEC in rushing averaging 217 rushing yards per game. The same can't be said for the Nittany Lions who ranked at the bottom of the BIG10 in rushing averaging just over 100 yards per game. Only Purdue averaged fewer yards per game than Penn State. This Nittany Lions team lost five of it's last seven games, and they have failed to cover in five of their last six versus SEC teams. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-31-21 | Georgia -7.5 v. Michigan | 34-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on UGA. The last thing I am going to do heading into the playoffs is judge these teams based on their last performance. Rather than rush to a judgement influenced by recency bias, I will look at each team's entire body of work. Georgia was by far the best team in the country all year long, and because of that they came into the SEC Championship game as a 7-point favorite versus Alabama. Bryce Young lit them up, with the majority of the damage coming in the second quarter of a 41-24 loss. The Michigan Wolverines are coming off back to back blowout wins over Iowa and Ohio State, but their QB threw more INTs (2) than TDs (1) and failed to throw for 200 yards in either of those games. They don't have a Heisman winner at QB like Alabama, and they could going up against a brick wall if they can't get their running game going. Georgia only allowed three rushing TDs in 13 games this season. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-31-21 | Cincinnati +14 v. Alabama | 6-27 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Cinci. The last thing I am going to do heading into the playoffs is judge these teams based on their last performance. Rather than rush to a judgement influenced by recency bias, I will look at each team's entire body of work. Alabama lost to Texas A&M, barely escaped with a win over Florida, and were so close to losing to Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Because of that they entered the SEC Championship game as a 7-point underdog. Cincinnati on the hand was consistent every week, finishing 13-0 and becoming the first non Power Five team in the playoffs. The Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games, and they have covered five straight as an underdog. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-30-21 | Pittsburgh v. Michigan State -135 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on MSU. The Pittsburgh Panthers won't have star QB Kenny Pickett in the Peach Bowl, and that could be a problem in a game that could likely be a shootout. Pittsburgh's defense ranked 11th in the ACC versus the pass, and the Michigan State offense may be able to take advantage of that. The Panthers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site games as an underdog, and they have failed to cover in four of their last five bowl games. The Spartans are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games, and they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight bowl games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma -6.5 | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Sooners. I don't think the Sooners brought back Big Game Bob (Stoops) to take an L here in this bowl game. They will play Oregon in the Alamo Bowl, and the Ducks will have outgoing offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead as interim coach. Their best player on defense, and potential first overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft Keyvon Thibideau has opted out of the Alamo Bowl. The Sooners are 6-1 all time versus the Ducks, and they are in better shape ahead of this game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-28-21 | West Virginia v. Minnesota -4.5 | 6-18 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on MIN. The total for the Guaranteed Rate Bowl is pretty low, and even though both these teams are great defensively, I think we will see closer to 50+ points. Minnesota won six of their last eight games, and they've scored an average of 27 points during that span. Minnesota has been quite successful in recent bowl games, covering in four straight. Most recently they defeated Auburn 31-24 in the Outback Bowl in 2019. I like the Gophers to win in similar fashion here in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. GL. Jesse Schule |
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12-28-21 | West Virginia v. Minnesota OVER 44.5 | 6-18 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. The total for the Guaranteed Rate Bowl is pretty low, and even though both these teams are great defensively, I think we will see closer to 50+ points. Minnesota won six of their last eight games, and they've scored an average of 27 points during that span. Minnesota has been quite successful in recent bowl games, covering in four straight. Most recently they defeated Auburn 31-24 in the Outback Bowl in 2019. I like the Gophers to win in similar fashion here in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. GL. Jesse Schule |
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12-28-21 | Texas Tech v. Mississippi State -9.5 | 34-7 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 6 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on MISST. The Bulldogs are a favorite in the Liberty Bowl, and Mike Leach might enjoy lighting up his former team in this bowl game. The Bulldogs won four of their final six games in the SEC, while Texas Tech lost four of their final five games in the BIG12. Texas Tech will have Sonny Cumbie as an interim head coach, and Donovan Smith at QB. Their receiving corpse will be depleted with several injuries and their leading WR opting out. The Red Raiders are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Bowl games, and they are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 neutral site games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan v. Nevada OVER 55.5 | 52-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. Western Michigan will be a significant favorite here in the Quick Lanes Bowl, and we should see plenty of scoring. The Broncos averaged over 30 points per game this season, and they gave up almost as many. Nevada won't have QB Carson Strong, who opted out as he prepares for the draft. The Wolfpack will also have a running backs coach leading them in this game. The over is 5-2 in the Broncos last seven games overall, and the over is 8-3 in the Wolf Pack's last 11 games overall. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-26-21 | Bucs v. Panthers +10.5 | 32-6 | Loss | -113 | 83 h 49 m | Show | |
The Panthers have lost four straight games, losing twice at home and twice on the road. Their home losses came by single digits, and both home losses came by a double digit margin. Tampa Bay is coming off a 9-0 loss to the Saints, and they have been hit hard by injuries. Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette and Chris Godwin are all out. Only the Buffalo Bills have allowed fewer yards per game than Carolina, and the Panthers have allowed just 178 passing yards per game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-26-21 | Rams v. Vikings +140 | 30-23 | Loss | -100 | 83 h 47 m | Show | |
The Vikings have won back to back games, and they might be the best 7-7 team in the NFL. They will miss RB Dalvin Cook this week against the Rams, but backup Alexander Mattison might be able to pick up the slack. He ran for 90 yards and a TD on 22 carries in a win over the Lions the last time Cook sat out. The Vikings are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home underdog. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-26-21 | Bills v. Patriots -130 | 33-21 | Loss | -130 | 83 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on NE. I bet on the Pats a few weeks ago when they rolled into Buffalo, and here is what I said before that game: "Bill Belichick has the Patriots back on top in the AFC, and they roll into Buffalo as a three point underdog. The Bills are coming off a Thanksgiving Day win over New Orleans, but they have alternated wins and losses over their last six games. Historically the Pats have owned the Bills, the Patriots are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings in Buffalo. The road team is 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 meetings." This might be a revenge spot for the Bills, but I just think this is a bad matchup for Buffalo. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-25-21 | Colts +104 v. Cardinals | 22-16 | Win | 104 | 66 h 5 m | Show | |
5* |
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12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals UNDER 49 | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
8* |
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12-25-21 | Browns v. Packers -7 | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on GB. We saw Cleveland really struggle against a below average team last week, and now they face the mighty Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Christmas Day. The Packers are a heavy favorite, and this should be quite a mismatch. Baker Mayfield is back, but there are still a long list of players on the covid list, especially on defense. The Packers are 6-0 at home and all six of those wins came by double-digits. Aaron Jones has scored three TDs in his last two starts, and he should get plenty of touches here in what should be a blowout. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State -5 | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Georgia State. |
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans UNDER 44 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under. The Titans offense has struggled since losing Derrick Henry, averaging fewer than 15 points in their last four games overall. Their defense has continued to play well, allowing fewer than 20 points in those games. They rank 2nd in the NFL versus the run, allowing just 86.9 rushing yards per game. The Titans have failed to reach the total in six of their last eight home games, and with all the injuries points could be hard to come by here against the 49ers. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-23-21 | Central Florida +7 v. Florida | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on UCF. Forida is a better team, with more talent and more resources. They may not be the more motivated team here, and their talent and resources have been decimated by opt outs, and injuries. They are expected to start Emory Jones at QB despite the fact that he has already decided to enter the transfer portal. The Gators won a close game at home 24-21 in their season finale versus FSU to become bowl eligible. They face a UCF team that won five of their final six games. The Gators are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games, and they have failed to cover in six straight non-conference games. The wrong team might be favored here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-21-21 | San Diego State v. UTSA OVER 49 | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Over. The UTSA Road Runners bring a high powered offense into this Bowl Game. They scored 49 points in a win over the Hilltoppers in the C-USA Championship game. They averaged 38 points per game this season, and the over is 5-1 in the Roadrunners last six games overall. San Diego State was a defensive powerhouse in the Mountain West, but they might not be motivated to grind it out on defense in a Bowl Game. The Aztecs have allowed an average of 27 points in their last three bowl games, and two of those went over the total. I expect to see plenty of scoring here in the Frisco Bowl. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-21-21 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 45.5 | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. The Seahawks and the Rams are relatively lucky to come into this game with most of their players healthy. A couple extra days have allowed the Rams to get several players back from the Covid list. Both these QBs come in hot, with Russell Wilson throwing for six TDs and just one INT in his last three starts, and Mathew Stafford throwing for nine TDs and just one INT in his last three starts. Seattle still ranks dead last in total defense allowing almost 400 yards per game. When these teams played earlier this season the total was set at 53.5, and now in LA we see a much lower number. Expect Russell Wilson to score enough to keep this game interesting and push the total over. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-20-21 | Vikings -6.5 v. Bears | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Minny. The Bears have lost seven of their last eight games overall, and injuries are a huge concern heading into this Monday night matchup versus Minnesota. The Vikings are 6-7 overall, and the majority of their losses have come in games decided by just a few points. The Bears defense has given up 78 points in their last two games, and they face a Vikings offense that is firing on all cylinders. Dalvin Cook ran for 205 yards and two TDs in a win over the Steelers in his last start. He should have another big game coming off plenty of rest. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-20-21 | Raiders +3 v. Browns | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Vegas. We saw this line move several points with the Raiders the favorite, and after being re-scheduled the Browns have gone to -3. So far the indication is that the majority of the Cleveland players on the Covid list remain out, and therefore the Raiders should still have an advantage. Nick Mullens is presumed to be the starter for the Browns, and he's had plenty of trouble protecting the football. Mullens has thrown eight INTs in his last five starts. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-20-21 | Tulsa v. Old Dominion +9.5 | 30-17 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Old Dominion. After a 1-6 start to the season, nobody expected the Monarchs to be playing in a bowl game. They turned things around when Blake Watson stepped up at running back and freshman Hayden Wolff took over at QB. The Monarchs finished the season with five straight wins, and they scored an average of 36 points in those games. Tulsa will be a big favorite in this game, but in the six games they won this season five of those were decided by seven points or less. The Monarchs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-19-21 | Saints +11.5 v. Bucs | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Saints. The Saints beat the Bucs earlier this year despite losing Jameis Winston early in that game. The Bucs defense is strong against the run, but New Orleans ran for 152 yards and a TD in their 36-27 home win over Tampa. Taysom Hill has been a threat in the running game, and we have already seen Josh Allen run for 109 yards and a TD against the Bucs. Hill ran for over 100 yards versus Dallas, and scored a pair of rushing TDs against the Jets last week. I expect another big game from Taysom Hill. GL, Jesse Schule |
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