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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles OVER 52.5 | 28-22 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. The Bucs come into Philly as big favorites, and they sit near the top of everyone's power rankings. That comes no thanks to their defense though, allowing almost 25 points per game. When you rank first in the NFL in passing, and you average over 33 points per game, you don't have to have a great defense. The Eagles last home game was a 42-30 loss to Kansas City, and Jalen Hurts threw for 387 yards and two TDs in the loss. He could have another big game here against a struggling Bucs secondary, and he's going to need to if the Eagles want to stay in the game. These teams have gone over in five of the last six head to head meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-14-21 | Navy v. Memphis OVER 56 | 17-35 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Over. The Memphis Tigers are still on offensive juggernaut, but they come into tonight's home game against Navy riding a three game losing streak. They put up 614 total yards in a 35-29 loss at Tulsa on Saturday, and if they didn't turn it over three times they could have gained even more. Their defense has allowed 30+ points in three straight games, and Tulsa ran for 235 yards and three TDs on Saturday. The over is 12-5 in the Midshipmen's last 17 games as an underdog. The Tigers have gone over in seven of their last nine versus teams with a losing record. The last three times Navy has played at Tulsa the total went over 55 combined points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-12-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 57 | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
8* |
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10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -145 | 38-20 | Loss | -145 | 114 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on KC. The Chiefs have struggled so far this season, especially on defense. They face a high flying Buffalo team at home tonight, and this game is expected to be a shootout. The total for this game is set in the high 50s, so we are expecting both teams to score their share of points. As vulnerable as the Chiefs look, history would suggest that the Bills might not be the team to take advantage of their shortcomings. The Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings versus KC. In last year's playoffs the Chiefs won at home by a score of 38-24. Tyreek Hill had nine catches for 172 yards, and Travis Kelce caught 13 passes for 118 yards and two TDs. I expect both Hill and Kelce to put up big numbers here against Buffalo. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-10-21 | 49ers v. Cardinals -5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Arizona. The 49ers come into Arizona without their starting QB, and their star TE. They are sending rookie Trey Lance into the fire, and he doesn't look like he's ready to start in this league. He faces the only undefeated team in the NFL, with an MVP candidate at QB. The 49ers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall, and they have failed to cover in six of their last seven versus the Cardinals. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-10-21 | Browns v. Chargers OVER 47 | 42-47 | Win | 100 | 42 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Over. The Chargers defense ranks among the best in the NFL against the pass, but they have struggled a bit to defend the run. That could be a recipe for disaster against a Browns team that can pound the rock like no other. Cleveland leads the NFL in rushing averaging over 177 yards per game. The Browns have gone over the total in five of their last six versus teams with a winning record. They will have their hands full with Justin Herbert. Both these teams are going to put points on the board, and the total looks a little low. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-10-21 | Bears v. Raiders -5.5 | 20-9 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 30 m | Show | |
8* |
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10-10-21 | Packers v. Bengals OVER 50.5 | 25-22 | Loss | -109 | 1 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. The Packers offense comes into this game cooking, and this game in Cincinnati is expected to be a high scoring affair. Aaron Jones comes in with five total TDs in his last three games, despite being kept out of the endzone against the Steelers. I am expecting both teams to score their share of points here in Cincinnati. The over is 6-0 in the Packers last six versus a team with a winning record, and the Bengals have gone over in six of their last severn versus a teams with a winning road record. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-10-21 | Jets v. Falcons -145 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Atlanta. The Falcons blew a late lead last week against Washington, but Matt Ryan had a hell of a game. He threw for 283 yards and four TDs despite missing his top two receivers. Cordarelle Patterson came out of nowhere to catch five passes for 82 yards and three TDs. This week I expect Kyle Pitts to step up with a big performance. The Jets were fortunate to win last week after giving up 430 yards of total offense to the shorthanded Titans. The Falcons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 versus a team with a losing record. This looks like a potential "get right" game for Atlanta. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-09-21 | LSU v. Kentucky UNDER 51 | 21-42 | Loss | -116 | 30 h 44 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. The LSU Tigers are coming off a 24-19 home loss to Auburn, and it doesn't get any easier on the road at the 5-0 Kentucky Wildcats. The under is 8-3 in Tigers last 11 games as a road underdog. Kentucky looks like they are for real, coming off a 20-13 home win over the Florida Gators. The under is 21-8 in the Wildcats last 29 conference games, and they have failed to reach the total in 10 of their last 14 home games as an underdog. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-09-21 | Michigan v. Nebraska UNDER 50 | 32-29 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 44 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. Michigan could be due for a let down here on the road at Nebraska, after their 38-17 win at Wisconsin. Nebraska has quietly been one of the better defensive teams in the BIG10. Even in their losses to Oklahoma and Michigan State they didn't give up a lot of points. The under is 7-2-1 in the Cornhuskers last 10 games overall, and they have failed to reach the total in seven straight as an underdog. Neither of these teams are great at the QB position, and both teams are playing lights out on defense. This game should be a defensive battle. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-09-21 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech UNDER 47 | 32-29 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. The Irish are coming off a 24-13 home loss to Cincinnati, and now they have a tough road game at Virginia Tech. The Hokies already have an upset win over a ranked team, beating the Tar Heels 17-10 in their season opener. The Irish are a far tougher opponent than the Tar Heels though, especially on defense. Notre Dame is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games, and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six coming off a loss. The Hokies are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games, and they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven coming off a win. The under is 7-3 in the Fighting Irish last 10 games as an underdog. The Hokies have gone under in six straight home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-09-21 | Boise State v. BYU UNDER 57.5 | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. The Cougars come into this game against rivals Boise State with injury concerns at QB, but that might not be as big of an issue given their potent rushing attack. Tyler Allgeier is a real weapon, and he ran for 218 yards and three TDs on 22 carries in a win over Utah State last week. He had a big game (124 yds, 2 TDs) against Boise State last year. The under is 7-1 in the Cougars last eight games overall, and they have gone under in five of their last six as a favorite. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-09-21 | Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 47 | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. The Georgia Bulldogs have won four straight games by at least four scores. They could be challenged here on the road at Auburn, and this game could look a lot more like their season opener versus Clemson. The Tigers lost 27-6 at Georgia last year, and seven of the last eight meetings have gone under the number. Auburn has scored more than 10 points just twice in their last seven against Georgia. Bo Nix threw for 177 yards and an INT on 21-of-40 passing in the loss to Georgia last year. He's likely to have similar numbers here at home. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-08-21 | Stanford v. Arizona State OVER 51 | 10-28 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. The Stanford Cardinal are coming off a massive upset win over Oregon, thanks to their new stud QB Tanner McKee. The sophomore has thrown for over 1000 yards, 11 TDs without a single INT in four starts. He will have his work cut out for him on the road at Arizona State, taking on a 4-1 Sun Devils team. Arizona State is 2-0 in the PAC12, scoring a total of 77 points in wins over UCLA and Colorado. The over is 25-8-1 in the Cardinal last 34 games as a road underdog, and the Sun Devils have gone over in four straight conference games. This should be a slugfest with both teams scoring their share. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-07-21 | Rams -132 v. Seahawks | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the LAR. This could be a "get right" game for the Rams after an embarrassing loss to Arizona last week. They are on the road at Seattle, where they have had plenty of success in recent seasons. The Rams are 6-3 straight up in the last nine meetings, and they are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Rams are also 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss. Seattle has failed to cover in nine of their last 11 when coming off a win. The Seahawks come into this game ranking dead last in total defense, allowing 445 yards per game. Sean McVay and Matt Stafford should be able to exploit that. A neck injury expected to limit Chris Carson, if he plays at all. This looks like a tough spot for the Seahawks. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers -160 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on LAC. The Raiders are 3-0 and two of those three wins were thanks to late rallies in the fourth quarter. A road game at LA presents a far tougher challenge than they have faced in any of their previous three games. The Chargers are 2-1, with their one loss coming at home to Dallas in a game that was influenced by several controversial penalties. Justin Herbert outdueled Patrick Mahomes last week, and he's put up big numbers in two previous starts versus the Raiders. He threw for 640 yards, four TDs and no INTs against the Raiders as a rookie last year. The Raiders are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win, and they are due for a let down here on Monday night. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots OVER 49 | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. The Bucs defense has struggled so far while winning 2-of-3 games. They have allowed an average of 29 points, and opposing QBs are averaging 338 passing yards per game. This could allow Bill Belichick to scheme up a game plan for Mac Jones that will lead to points for the Patriots. Richard Sherman is expected to play at CB today, despite not playing a game in almost a year. This gives us an idea of just how shorthanded the Bucs are in their secondary. The over is 5-0 in the Bucs last five as a favorite, and they have gone over in five straight when coming off a loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-03-21 | Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 55 | 37-20 | Loss | -107 | 93 h 35 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. I had the under in the Falcons season opener versus Philadelphia, and here is what I said prior to that game: "The Falcons will be the favorite when they host Philly in Week 1, but this team might not be as explosive as it once was. Matt Ryan is now 36 years old, and Atlanta was just 4-12 in 2020. These two teams have gone under in five straight head to head meetings, and they failed to score 40 combined points in three of the last four meetings. This number appears to be a little inflated." The under is 11-5 in Washington's last 16 games overall, and they have failed to reach the total in 10 of their last 11 games in October. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-03-21 | Cardinals v. Rams -4.5 | Top | 37-20 | Loss | -102 | 93 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Rams. The Cardinals are undefeated, and Kyler Murray has been playing like an MVP candidate. This week looks like a tough spot for both Arizona and QB Kyler Murray, on the road at the Rams who ranks 1st in scoring defense and first against the pass allowing just 190 yards per game last season. Murray has really struggled against the Rams, throwing for 4TDs and 4 INTs in four career starts against them. The Rams won all four of those games, and the Rams are 9-1 straight up and 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The under is 13-3 in Cardinals last 16 road games, and Arizona has failed to cover in five straight versus a team with a winning record. The Rams are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite, and the under is 13-3 in Rams last 16 games as a home favorite. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-03-21 | Washington Football Team v. Falcons UNDER 48 | 34-30 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. I had the under in the Falcons season opener versus Philadelphia, and here is what I said prior to that game: "The Falcons will be the favorite when they host Philly in Week 1, but this team might not be as explosive as it once was. Matt Ryan is now 36 years old, and Atlanta was just 4-12 in 2020. These two teams have gone under in five straight head to head meetings, and they failed to score 40 combined points in three of the last four meetings. This number appears to be a little inflated." The under is 11-5 in Washington's last 16 games overall, and they have failed to reach the total in 10 of their last 11 games in October. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-03-21 | Titans -7 v. Jets | 24-27 | Loss | -104 | 89 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Titans. Tennessee has got back on track after losing their home opener to Arizona. Coming off big wins over the Seahawks and the Colts, they look to make it three in a row here in New York. The Jets are reeling, not only winless to start the season but rookie QB Zach Wilson has been a disaster. He's thrown six picks without any TD passes in his last two starts. Most teams would struggle without their top two WRs, but most teams don't have Derrick Henry. The NFL's reigning rushing champion has ran for over 300 yards and three TDs the last two weeks. They say it's not sharp to bet on road favorites, but there's nothing sharp about betting on a Jets team that is 2-17 straight up the last two seasons, with 13 of those losses coming by 7+ points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-02-21 | Auburn v. LSU UNDER 57 | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. The Auburn Tigers will need better QB play if they hope to upset LSU on Saturday. Bo Nix struggled last week against Georgia State, throwing for 156 yards on 13-of-27 passing. TJ Finley came in and played much better, and now we have a QB controversy on our hands. The under is 7-1 in (Auburn) Tigers last eight road games, and they have failed to reach the total in six of their last seven SEC games. The home team is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings, and four of the last five meetings have gone under the total. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-02-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -180 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Oklahoma State. The Baylor Bears are 4-0, coming off a home win over Iowa State. This sets them up for a let down here on the road at rivals Oklahoma State. The Bears are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight BIG12 games, and they are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Oklahoma State. The home team is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings, and the favorite is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-02-21 | Ole Miss v. Alabama UNDER 80 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. Last year's game between the Rebels and the Tide was barn burner, and because of that the total for today's game is rather inflated. It opened in the mid seventies and has since been bet up over 80. It doesn't take much to stall the pace of play to prevent these teams from combining for 80+ points. A turnover here, a holding penalty or two, or maybe just some plain old good defense. These teams have gone over in five of the last six head to head meetings, but the total here in this game is far higher than it was in any of those previous games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-02-21 | Cincinnati v. Notre Dame OVER 49.5 | 24-13 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Over. The Irish are liking their own smell after a blowout win at Wisconsin, but let's pump the brakes on how great this team is. They gave up 29 points in a home win over Toledo, and Florida State nearly scored 40 on them. The Bearcats come in as winners of 12 of their last 13 overall, and they can score points on anyone. The over is 6-1 in the Bearcats last seven games as a road favorite, and the over is 9-4 in the Fighting Irish last 13 home games versus a team with a winning road record. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-01-21 | BYU v. Utah State UNDER 65 | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. The BYU Cougars will be a big favorite on the road at Utah State, and the total for this game has been bet up to the mid 60s. That's 10 points higher than we have seen in any of the past 10 head to head meetings. These teams did go over the total in five of the last six meetings, but only one of those games saw more than 65 points scored. The Cougars have gone under in six of their last seven overall, while the Aggies have failed to reach the total in five of their last seven as an underdog. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-30-21 | Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 45.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. The Bengals are coming off an impressive win in Pittsburgh, and Joe Burrow threw three TD passes against one of the league's top defenses. Most significantly he didn't get sacked once, as the Steelers 75 game streak with at least one sack was broken. A home game against the Jags looks like a good spot for Burrow to fill the stat sheet. The Jags defense has allowed over 30 points per game so far, and opposing QBs are averaging over 300 passing yards per game. Burrow threw for 300 yards a TD and an INT in a 33-25 home win over the Jags as a rookie last year. With an improved offensive line, expect another big day for Burrow. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -5 | 30-28 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Miami. The Virginia Cavaliers started the season with a pair of impressive wins over inferior opponents, but they are 0-2 against the ACC and they have allowed 96 total points in those losses. They head to Miami to take on the Canes, who are playing their first game within the conference. Losses to Alabama and Michigan State sting, and they also struggled against Appalachian State. D'eriq King has been battling injuries, and the Canes may be better off sitting him in favor of Tyler Van Dyke or Jake Garcia. They might not need to lean to heavily in the pass against a Virginia defense that has allowed roughly 300 rushing yards per game in their two losses versus ACC teams. The Cavaliers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games, and they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 51.5 | 21-41 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under. |
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09-26-21 | Bucs v. Rams +109 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 109 | 118 h 54 m | Show |
1 This is a 7* play on LA. The Bucs are heavy favorites to repeat as Super Bowl champions, and many are talking about a possible perfect regular season. They could be a favorite in every single game they play this season, but this game here in LA is the one spot on the schedule that could give them trouble. The Rams are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss, and they are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games in September. If anyone is going to get Tom Brady off his game, it would be Aaron Donald and the LA defense that has three INTs in the first two weeks. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-26-21 | Bears v. Browns -7 | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 114 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on Cleveland. Bears fans have been cheering for Justin Fields to take over at QB, and he will be the starter here in Cleveland. Be careful what you wish for! This looks like a tough matchup for the Bears. Fields threw for 60 yards and an INT on 6-of-13 passing in a win over Cincinnati last week, and he was sacked twice. The Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, and they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog. The Browns have scored 60 points in their first two games, averaging over 150 rushing yards per game. Baker Mayfield has been accurate, completing over 80 percent of his passes during a 1-1 start. The Browns should win big here at home. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-26-21 | Colts v. Titans -5 | 16-25 | Win | 100 | 114 h 18 m | Show | |
5* |
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09-26-21 | Saints v. Patriots -144 | 28-13 | Loss | -144 | 112 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Patriots. New England probably should be 2-0 heading into this Week 3 home game against New Orleans. A late fumble on what would have been the game winning drive cost them the victory in Week 1 versus Miami. Mac Jones has played well, throwing for 467 yards with a TD an no INTs on 74% passing in his first two NFL starts. Jameis Winston threw for 111 yards with two INTs on 11-of-22 passing in the loss at Carolina last week, and it won't get any easier facing this elite New England defense. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-25-21 | Nebraska v. Michigan State -185 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Michigan State. The Spartans are coming off a huge win at Miami, and they open conference play at home versus Nebraska. Payton Thorne threw for 261 yards and four TDs on 18-of-31 passing in the win at Miami. He hasn't thrown an INT in three starts, despite facing some tough teams (Northwestern & Miami). Nebraska is 2-2 with losses to Illinois and Oklahoma. Adrian Martinez was sacked 10 times in those two losses. It should be an uphill battle for Nebraska in hostile territory at East Lansing. The Spartans look like they have their defense dialed in, and more weapons on offense. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-25-21 | Illinois v. Purdue UNDER 53.5 | 9-13 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. Purdue and Illinois have each had their struggles on offense, and history suggests that we will see a defensive battle here on Saturday. These teams have gone under in four straight head to head meetings, and four of the last five at Purdue. The Boilermakers best offensive player (WR Bell) is in concussion protocols, and might miss this game. The under is 14-6 in the Fighting Illini last 20 games in September, and the under is 4-1 in the Boilermakers last five home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-25-21 | Rutgers v. Michigan UNDER 50.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. Rutgers will be a 20+ point underdog on the road at Michigan, but I am expecting a close game with both defenses playing well. The under is 14-6 in the Scarlet Knights last 20 games as a road underdog. The Wolverines have gone under in four of their last five home games. Cade McNamara threw for a whopping 44 yards on 7-of-15 passing in a 31-10 home win over Washington a few weeks ago. He's averaging just over 100 yards passing per game, with three TDs in three starts. These teams are going to pound the rock, and that should burn up some clock. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-25-21 | Washington State v. Utah -15 | 13-24 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Utah. The Utes came into the season ranked in the Top 25, but they have lost back to back games to BYU and San Diego State. There is reason for optimism heading into their first PAC12 game. Their offense has a bit of momentum building after a change at QB. Cameron Rising stepped in to throw for 153 yards and three TDs after replacing Charlie Brewer in the loss to the Aztecs. They host Washington State, and the Cougars lost their first PAC12 game by 30+ points. The Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall, and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four conference games. The Utes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 conference games, and they have covered in six straight versus a team with a losing record. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-25-21 | LSU v. Mississippi State OVER 56 | 28-25 | Loss | -105 | 86 h 54 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Over. Mike Leach is watching his offense come together here heading into their fourth game of the season. Bulldogs QB Will Rogers threw for 419 yards and three TDs in a 31-29 loss at Memphis. The Bulldogs won 44-34 at LSU last year, and I am expecting another high scoring game here this season. The Tigers have gone over in five of their last six overall, and the over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Mississippi State threw the ball 67 times, and ran the ball just 16 times last week. Tigers QB Max Johnson threw for 372 yards and five TDs in a win over Central Michigan last week. With both teams airing it out, we should see plenty of scoring. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia -158 | 37-17 | Loss | -158 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on UVA. The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are undefeated coming into Virginia, but they have yet to face a team like the Cavaliers. They are coming off a win over Florida State, but the Seminoles are 0-3 and that perhaps isn't as impressive as it sounds. They play on the road for the first time facing a high flying Virginia offense led by QB Brennan Armstrong. While the Cavs lost to North Carolina last week, Armstrong threw for 554 yards, 4 TDs and an INT on 39-of-54 passing. This is a huge step up in competition for Wake Forest, and they are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Cavs have covered in five straight as a home favorite, and they are 5-1 ATS when coming off a loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-23-21 | Panthers -7.5 v. Texans | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Panthers. Carolina is off to an impressive start, and they look good to move to 3-0 as they face the Texans in Houston on Thursday night. The Texans are 2-0 ATS so far, but they have allowed an average of 29 points per game through the first two weeks. Rookie QB Trevor Lawrence threw for over 300 yards and three TDs in a loss at Houston in Week 1. It won't get any easier with Davis Mills taking over at QB. He threw for 102 yards with a TD and an INT on 8-of-18 passing after Tyrod Taylor went down with an injury in Cleveland last week. The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games, while the Texans are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans OVER 43 | 24-9 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. Carolina is off to an impressive start, and they look good to move to 3-0 as they face the Texans in Houston on Thursday night. The Texans are 2-0 ATS so far, but they have allowed an average of 29 points per game through the first two weeks. Rookie QB Trevor Lawrence threw for over 300 yards and three TDs in a loss at Houston in Week 1. It won't get any easier with Davis Mills taking over at QB. He threw for 102 yards with a TD and an INT on 8-of-18 passing after Tyrod Taylor went down with an injury in Cleveland last week. The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games, while the Texans are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State UNDER 59.5 | 30-31 | Loss | -112 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under. The Mountaineers will host Marshall on a short week, and the total for this game looks a little inflated. They have held opponents to an average of 18 points per game so far, including a 25-23 loss at Miami. Marshall is coming off a loss to East Carolina, and the Pirates had previously lost 33-19 at Appalachian State. The under is 7-2-1 in the Mountaineers last 10 games following a straight up win, and they have failed to reach the total in five of their last seven when playing on a short week. Marshall won 17-7 at home versus the Mountaineers last September. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-20-21 | Lions +12 v. Packers | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Lions. Perhaps the biggest surprise in Week 1 was the Packers losing 38-3 to the Saints. We've been here before with Aaron Rodgers, and he's always come back with a vengeance. The Packers have lost six games in the LaFleur/Rodgers era, and they are 6-0 in each game following those losses. So it seems like the consensus opinion is that the Packers are just fine, and they will take out their frustrations on the hapless Detroit Lions on Monday night. While I wouldn't be surprised to see Aaron Rodgers and the offense respond in typical fashion, I am more concerned with a defense that gave up 38 points against the Saints, making Jameis Winston look like Patrick Mahomes. The Lions have covered the spread in seven of the last eight head to head meetings. The scored an average of 27 points in those games, and they didn't score less than 20 points in any of those games. Jared Goff might be a downgrade from Matthew Stafford, and he's certainly not the guy who will win you a Super Bowl, but he threw for 338 yards and three TDs in the loss to the Niners. He's capable of piling on points in garbage time. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers OVER 48.5 | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Over. Perhaps the biggest surprise in Week 1 was the Packers losing 38-3 to the Saints. We've been here before with Aaron Rodgers, and he's always come back with a vengeance. The Packers have lost six games in the LaFleur/Rodgers era, and they are 6-0 in each game following those losses. So it seems like the consensus opinion is that the Packers are just fine, and they will take out their frustrations on the hapless Detroit Lions on Monday night. While I wouldn't be surprised to see Aaron Rodgers and the offense respond in typical fashion, I am more concerned with a defense that gave up 38 points against the Saints, making Jameis Winston look like Patrick Mahomes. The Lions have covered the spread in seven of the last eight head to head meetings. The scored an average of 27 points in those games, and they didn't score less than 20 points in any of those games. Jared Goff might be a downgrade from Matthew Stafford, and he's certainly not the guy who will win you a Super Bowl, but he threw for 338 yards and three TDs in the loss to the Niners. He's capable of piling on points in garbage time. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 91 h 16 m | Show | |
5* |
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09-19-21 | Cowboys v. Chargers -175 | 20-17 | Loss | -175 | 89 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Chargers. I bet against the Cowboys in their season opener at Tampa, but I was shocked with how well Dak Prescott played. Cowboys fans are full of optimism, but I would caution that the old saying is still true. Good teams find a way to win, and bad teams find a way to lose. The Chargers defense is one of the best in the NFL with Derwin James and Joey Bosa. Dallas is going to be short-handed on defense with DeMarcus Lawrence injured and Randy Gregory in Covid protocols. The Chargers are 3-0 straight up, and 3-0 ATS in the last three head to head meetings. I'll take the home favorite. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-19-21 | Saints v. Panthers +4 | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 99 h 7 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Carolina. Seasoned sports bettors will tell you that one of the most important things to keep in mind heading into Week 2, is not to overreact to the results in Week 1. Perhaps the most surprising result was the Saints blowout win over Green Bay. Jameis Winston threw five TD passes in the win, and some are saying that his turnover problems might have been solved by laser eye surgery. I will point out that Jameis has a history of making poor decisions, including a pair of high profile sexual assault allegations, and a shoplifting charge for stealing crab legs. As far as I know laser eye surgery doesn't prevent you from making poor decisions, and poor decisions are what leads to turnovers. In his last season in Tampa, he played the Panthers twice. He threw five INTs in those two games. I'll take the Panthers plus the points at home. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-19-21 | 49ers v. Eagles UNDER 50 | 17-11 | Win | 100 | 84 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on Under. I had the under in the Eagles opening game at Atlanta, and here is what I said prior to that game: "The Eagles offense ranked 28th in the NFL in passing last season, averaging just 207.9 yards per game. They come into 2021 hoping that Jalen Hurts can bring their offense back to life, but that sure seems like a longshot. I can remember Hurts as the same quarterback that lost his job as the starter for Alabama. Last season he completed just 52% of his passes for 1,061 yards with six TDs and four INTs while appearing in 15 games. He isn't exactly surrounded by an all star receiving corps and the Eagles don't exactly have the most dynamic stable of running backs either." Now they went on to win 32-6, but that might say more about the Falcons defense than it does about the Eagles offense. The under is 22-8 in Eagles last 30 home games, and they have failed to reach the total in eight of their last 11 overall. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-18-21 | Oklahoma State v. Boise State -165 | 21-20 | Loss | -165 | 18 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on Boise State. The Broncos blew a big lead in Week 1, losing 36-31 at Central Florida, but they bounced back by scoring 54 points in a home win over UTEP. Junior QB Hank Bachmeier threw for 340 yards and a pair of TDs on 17-of-24 passing in the win. The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite. The Cowvboys are 2-0, but neither of their wins were all that impressive. They were a 33 point favorite in Week 1, and they won by just seven points. Last week they beat Tulsa 28-23, failing to cover as a double digit favorite. The Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-18-21 | Auburn v. Penn State UNDER 53 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Under. The Auburn Tigers will play on the road at Penn State in what figures to be the toughest test they have had in quite a while. The Nittany Lions are heavily favored, but I am expecting a close, low scoring game. The under is 15-6 in the Tigers last 21 games as an underdog, and they have failed to reach the total in six of their last seven road games. Penn State has gone under in five of their last seven versus SEC teams. The Nittany Lions defense looked sharp in a 16-10 upset win at Wisconsin in Week 1. They held the Badgers under 200 passing yards and forced a pair of INTs. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-18-21 | Alabama -14.5 v. Florida | 31-29 | Loss | -101 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on Bama. The Tide have not missed a beat since Bryce Young stepped in to replace Mac Jones. Young has completed over 70 percent of his passes for 571 yards and 7 TDs with no INTs in two starts. Alabama will be a big favorite on the road at Florida, but history suggests the Gators are overmatched here. The Gators have lost seven straight to Alabama, and three of those games were in Florida. Six of those seven losses came by a double digit margin. The Gators starting QB has thrown four INTs and just two TDs in his first two starts despite facing inferior opponents. He could be in for a rough ride against the Tide. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-18-21 | Michigan State v. Miami-FL UNDER 57.5 | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. The Miami Hurricanes are off to a disappointing start, getting blown out by Alabama in their season opener, and nearly missing another loss to Appalachian State in Week 2. D'Eric King doesn't look like himself coming off an ACL injury, and they haven't had any success running the ball. The loss of Donald Chaney is a big blow to their backfield depth. They are a big favorite against Michigan State, but I am not sure they can score enough to cover here. The Spartans are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games, and the under is 4-1 in the Hurricanes last five non-conference games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-18-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Buffalo +14 | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Buffalo. I had the Bulls last week, and they failed to cover on the road at Nebraska. Here is what I said before kickoff: "Nebraska is coming off a 52-7 win over Fordam, and perhaps that has made bettors forget that they lost to Illinois in Week 1. A home game against Buffalo is a big step up in competition from the cup cake they had their way with last week, and they have no business being favored by two TDs. The Bulls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall, and they have covered in six of their last seven versus the BIG10. They are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog." The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog, and they have covered in five straight when coming off a loss. GL, Jesse Schule. |
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09-17-21 | Central Florida -6.5 v. Louisville | 35-42 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Central Florida. The Knights were quite impressive in their season opening win over Boise State. They came out a bit flat, and trailed 21-0 early in that game. They didn't stop fighting though, battling back to take a 30-24 lead early in the fourth quarter. The Cardinals opened the season with a blowout loss to Mississippi, allowing 43 points on 569 yards of total offense. They face a similar challenge here against UCF, and the trends seem to suggest they could see a similar result. The Cardinals are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games as a home underdog, and they are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 versus a team with a winning record. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-16-21 | Giants +3.5 v. Washington Football Team | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 34 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on NYG. The Washington Football Team lost at home to the Chargers in their season opener, and they also lost starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick for an extended period of time. Despite the fact that backup Taylor Heinicke will come in to start versus the Giants, Washington is still a significant favorite. As well as Heinicke has played in his brief stints starting for Washington, he hasn't actually won any games. The Giants looked pretty bad in a home loss to Denver in Week 1, but there were positives to take away from that game. The Giants swept Washington last year, winning 23-20 at Washington, and 20-19 at home. They have actually won five straight versus Washington, and they are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog. They have covered in four of their last five at Washington. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-16-21 | Ohio v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 57.5 | 14-49 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under. |
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09-13-21 | Ravens -190 v. Raiders | 27-33 | Loss | -190 | 16 h 3 m | Show | |
5* |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders UNDER 50.5 | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 54 m | Show | |
5* |
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams UNDER 46.5 | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -103 | 68 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Under. The Rams had the NFL's #1 ranked scoring defense last season, while the Bears ranked #1 in scoring defense back in 2018. We should expect a low score here on Sunday night. The Rams brought in Matt Stafford, and he brings high expectations of an improved offense. The Rams offense has struggled since Todd Gurley left, and their current stable of running backs looks a bit lackluster with Cam Akers out and Darrell Henderson banged up. The Bears are trotting out Andy Dalton at QB in Week 1, and that looks like a recipe for disaster against this Rams pass rush. The under is 13-5 in the Bears last 18 games as a road underdog, and the under is 14-3 in the Rams last 17 home games. These teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last eight head to head meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-12-21 | Browns +6.5 v. Chiefs | 29-33 | Win | 100 | 1266 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Cleveland. The Browns open as a big underdog on the road at Kansas City, and I gonna make a move here taking the points. Baker Mayfield versus Patrick Mahomes is an intriguing matchup, one that we've seen plenty of times in the past. Most recently in last year's playoffs, when the Chiefs survived with a 22-17 win at Arrowhead. The most memorable head to head meeting came back in 2016 when Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma won 66-59 in historic shootout versus Mahomes and Texas Tech. This is a lot of points for a Chiefs team that is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 overall. The history between these teams shows the road team covering in four straight and the underdog covering in six of the last eight meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-12-21 | Packers -173 v. Saints | 3-38 | Loss | -173 | 64 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Green Bay. Jameis Winston takes over at QB for the Saints, and we will see if he can do a better job protecting the football. He threw for over 5000 yards and 33 TDs in his last year in Tampa, but he also threw a whopping 30 INTs. His receiving corps here in New Orleans without Michael Thomas isn't quite as dynamic as it was in Tampa. The Saints open the season in Jacksonville against the Packers, and Green Bay is expected to be a legit Super Bowl contender. The Packers won in New Orleans last year by a score of 37-30, and Rogers threw for 283 yards and three TDs on 21-of-32 passing. Expect history to repeat itself here in Week 1. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-12-21 | Chargers v. Washington Football Team | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 1259 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on LAC. Washington is considered by many to be the favorite to win the NFC East, but that's not saying much. They won seven games last year, and not one of those wins was anything to brag about. Wins came against Andy Dalton twice, Nick Mullens, Ryan Finley, Nate Sudfeld, Carson Wentz, and the Steelers without any running backs. No wonder their defense ranked so well, they were facing backup quarterbacks and banged up teams every week. The Chargers come in with one of the hottest young QBs in the NFL. Justin Herbert threw for over 4,300 yards and 30 TDs as a rookie last year. The Football Team are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in September. The Chargers are 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 road games, and they are 6-1-2 ATS in their last nine games in Week 1. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-12-21 | Seahawks -155 v. Colts | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Seattle. The Seahawks will be at Indianapolis in Week 1, and the Colts are in a tough spot. Carson Wentz missed the pre-season and is rushing back after off-season surgery. It's a new coach, a new system and new personnel. The Seahawks are hoping that Russell Wilson will be the same QB he was threw the first eight games of last season, when he averaged 318 passing yards per game. Chris Carson has battled injuries, but when healthy he's as good as it gets. He looks good in Week 1 with his team listed as a favorite. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-12-21 | Cardinals v. Titans -149 | 38-13 | Loss | -149 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Tennessee. The Titans ranked 4th in the NFL in scoring averaging over 30 points per game last year. The addition of Julio Jones is going to make them even better. They will need to score a lot of points, because they have struggled on defense allowing over 27 points per game last season. The Cardinals come in with a formidable offense, but losing a pair of stars in their secondary this off-season might hurt them defensively. The over is 15-5-1 in Titans last 21 home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-11-21 | Hawaii v. Oregon State UNDER 65 | 27-45 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. The Rainbow Warriors have given up 79 points while going 1-1 in their first two games of the season. They are on the road at Oregon State this week, and the Beavers are a double digit favorite. The total for this game looks a little inflated, when you consider that neither of these teams are great in the passing game. Hawaii has gone under in five of it's last six overall, and the under is 5-0 in their last five on the road. The Beavers have gone under in four of their last five versus Hawaii. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-11-21 | Jacksonville State v. Florida State UNDER 57 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. The Seminoles lost their home opener against Notre Dame, but it was a feel good story even in defeat. McKenzie Milton stepped in to lead a fourth quarter comeback bid that fell just short. Jordan Travis threw for 130 yards, two TDs and three INTs on 9-of-19 passing versus the Irish. FSU catches a break with a favorable matchup at home versus Jacksonville State this week. The Gamecocks were shutout in a loss to UAB in their first game of the season. The under is 8-1 in the Gamecocks last nine games overall, and they have gone under in six of their last seven road games. The number looks a bit too high considering that this should be a one-sided contest. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-11-21 | Portland State +31 v. Washington State | 24-44 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Portland State. The Cougars got off to a horrible start, losing their home opener to Utah State. There is no way they deserve to be a 31 point favorite against a Portland State team that can really put points on the board. Davis Alexander threw for 400 yards and three TDs on 23-of-47 passing in a 49-35 loss to Hawaii last week. They are likely to be just as competitive here against the Cougars. The last time these teams met, the Cougars lost outright as a 30-point favorite back in 2015. The Vikings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-11-21 | Buffalo +14.5 v. Nebraska | 3-28 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Buffalo. Nebraska is coming off a 52-7 win over Fordam, and perhaps that has made bettors forget that they lost to Illinois in Week 1. A home game against Buffalo is a big step up in competition from the cup cake they had their way with last week, and they have no business being favored by two TDs. The Bulls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall, and they have covered in six of their last seven versus the BIG10. They are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. The Cornhuskers are 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 home games, and they have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 as a favorite. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-11-21 | Rutgers v. Syracuse UNDER 52.5 | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 66 h 52 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Under. Rutgers scored 61 points in a blowout win over Temple in Week 1, but we can expect a much closer game here against Syracuse. History tells us that this might be a defensive battle. These teams have failed to reach the total in each of the last four head to head meetings, and the Scarlet Knights have gone under in four straight at Syracuse. The under is 11-5 in Scarlet Knights last 16 road games, and they have failed to reach the total in seven straight versus ACC teams. The Orange have gone under in four of their last five in the month of September. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-10-21 | North Dakota v. Utah State UNDER 53.5 | 24-48 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under. The Utah State Aggies are coming off their first win over a Power Five team since 2014, and their first road win versus the Power Five in 50 years. They needed two TDs in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter to complete the comeback in a 26-23 win over Washington State. Their defense did a fine job against the Cougars, and we can expect another defensive battle here against North Dakota. The Aggies have gone under in eight of their last 10 when coming off a win, and the Fighting Hawks have gone under in six straight overall. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs -8 | 29-31 | Loss | -108 | 30 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Tampa. The Bucs are a big favorite in the season opener versus Dallas, and the game script suggests that Tampa will be doing plenty of scoring. Their team total is set at 30.5, and if they hit that then there will be a few TDs to go around. The main man in the red zone is Mike Evans, who caught 13 TD passes in 2020. With Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin each entering this game with an injury designation of "questionable", Evans could see even more touches. If this game does go according to script, the Bucs should open up a healthy lead which will result in a heavy dose of run plays in the second half. With Ronald Jones splitting the workload with Leonard Fournette, both backs have pretty low rush yard totals. Bruce Arians seems to favor Jones, who averaged over five yards per carry last season. He should have no problem running for 50+ yards. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs OVER 51.5 | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. The Bucs ranked 3rd in the NFL in scoring last year, and they come into their season opener with all their starters back and at full strength. They are a huge favorite against a Dallas team that allowed opponents to average almost 30 points last year. Dak Prescott is back, and when healthy the Cowboys offense was firing on all cylinders. Dallas averaged 33 points per game in the games Prescott played last year. The over is 8-2 in the Buccaneers last 10 games as a home favorite, and the Cowboys have gone over in four straight as an underdog. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame -7 v. Florida State | 41-38 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Notre Dame. The Seminoles were 3-6 last season, but they come in with high expectations that Mike Norvell can turn things around. It won't be easy in Week 1 hosting the Notre Dame Irish. Brian Kelly has won 32 straight against unranked opponents, and the Irish have won the last two versus Florida State by a combined 45 points. As much as the Seminoles might be improved, they are going to struggle to make up for a disparity of talent on both the offensive and defensive line. Jack Coan had himself a solid season with Wisconsin in 2019, completing 70 percent of his passes for 2727 yards, 18 TDs and just 5 INTs. There will be enough talent around him to allow Notre Dame to be a contender again in 2021. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-04-21 | Utah State v. Washington State UNDER 67 | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 34 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under. The Washington State Cougars have been involved in plenty of high scoring games over the year's, but this year's squad ain't you're daddy's Cougars. The Mike Leach era has ended, and the Air Raid offense will be replaced by Nick Rolovich's more balanced offensive approach. We should see Max Borghi and fellow senior Deon McIntosh do a lot of the heavy lifting. They host the Utah State Aggies in Week 1, and Utah State was 1-5 last season. The Aggies scored an average of 10 points in those five losses. The total for this game has been bet up, and now sits in the high sixties. I think that's a little over optimistic for these two teams. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-04-21 | Georgia v. Clemson -175 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -175 | 1075 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Clemson. The Georgia Bulldogs finished last season strong after making a change at QB, and they are expecting to have a big year with JT Daniels as the starter. Daniels threw for over 1200 yards, 10 TDs and just two INTs while winning the last three games of the regular season, then won a close game in the Peach Bowl versus Cincinnati. He didn't see any Top 10 ranked teams last year, and Clemson is considered by many to be the favorite heading into 2021. D.J. Uiagalelei takes over for Trevor Lawrence, and the Tigers offense didn't miss a beat in the two games he started last year. He could have an improved offensive line, and with 10 starters back on defense the Tigers have the peices in place to win another National Championship. Last year Mac Jones and Kyle Trask each lit up the Georgia secondary each throwing for over 400 yards. Uiagalelei might do the same here in Week 1, handing the Dawgs a loss in their opener. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-04-21 | UL-Lafayette v. Texas UNDER 58.5 | 18-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under. The Longhorns will have a tricky matchup in Week 1, facing a ranked team at home. New head coach Steve Sarkisian will have to have his team on their toes to avoid an upset at the hands of the #23 ranked Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns. Last year the Ragin Cajuns opened the season with a road win over a BIG12 team when they defeated Iowa State in Ames by a score of 31-14. They are returning 10 defensive starters from a unit that was 1st in the Sun Belt versus the pass last year, allowing opponents to average just 170 yards per game. Sarkisian isn't likely to have his offense humming at full speed this early in the season, so we should see both teams lean heavy on the run. I don't think these teams will combine to score 60 points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-03-21 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech UNDER 64 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under. North Carolina comes into a hostile environment at Virginia Tech as a significant favorite. Quarterback Sam Howell is one of the favorites to win the Heisman, but he's got his work cut out for him. The loss of Dyami Brown, Dazz Newsome, Javonte Williams, and Michael Carter will not be easy, and it could take some time to work out the offensive chemistry. Howell had a fantastic season a year ago, but he didn't exactly light it up in his first two starts. He threw for 620 yards, three TDs and three INTs in wins over Syracuse and Boston College. Neither of those games saw more than 50 points combined. The Hokies scored a ton of points in a loss at North Carolina last year, and that game was a high scoring shootout. With all the turnover I really don't see that happening here in the season opener in Blacksburg. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-02-21 | Ohio State v. Minnesota +14 | 45-31 | Push | 0 | 31 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Minnesota. The Buckeyes ran the table in the BIG10 last year, but after three games were cancelled due to Covid, the conference had to change the rules midway through the season in order to allow Ohio State to play Northwestern in the Conference Championship Game. Three of their six wins came by less than 14 points, and they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall. The Golden Gophers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. This team was 11-2 in 2019, and last year's 3-4 record can be written off as a product of delays and interruptions during a pandemic. With all the talent returning in 2021, there is every reason to expect PJ Fleck to field a highly competitive team. The Buckeyes last game at Minnesota came by a score of 31-24, and I expect a similar story here in the season opener. GL, Jesse Schule |
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08-28-21 | Southern Utah v. San Jose State UNDER 57.5 | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Under. The San Jose State Spartans will be a big favorite in their season opener versus Southern Utah, and money has been coming in the total. With the number bet up several points from the opening line, there looks like some value in fading the movement. The underdogs weren't great on defense last season, but they did lead their conference and finish in the top 20 of FCS with three sacks per game. It would be no surprise to see these offenses struggle to get off the ground in the season opener. GL, Jesse Schule |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 118 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Illinois. Nebraska was a -15 point favorite at home versus Illinois last year, and they got their butts whipped in a 41-23 loss. That sets up a revenge spot here at Illinois in Week 1. It makes sense that Nebraska is favored to win this game, but asking them to cover more than a TD seems a little questionable to me. The Illini are bringing back the majority of last year's starters, including Senior QB Brandon Peters. Brett Beilema takes over at coach, and he should be able to get the running game going at full tilt. The last time Nebraska played at Illinois they came in as a nine point favorite, and failed to cover winning by a score of 42-38. GL, Jesse Schule |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 56 | 9-31 | Loss | -105 | 259 h 56 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Over. The Chiefs continue to get off to slow starts, so don't be surprised if they do it again. They spotted Buffalo an early double digit lead in the AFC Championship Game, and last year in the Super Bowl they scored 21 points in the fourth quarter to overcome a 10 point deficit. Nobody would be shocked to see this trend continue in SBLV. The over is 23-10 in the Buccaneers last 33 games overall, and they have gone over in nine of their last 13 as an underdog. This total should probably be a little closer to 60 all things considered. GL, Jesse Schule |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs -154 v. Bucs | 9-31 | Loss | -154 | 2 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Chiefs. The Chiefs continue to get off to slow starts, so don't be surprised if they do it again. They spotted Buffalo an early double digit lead in the AFC Championship Game, and last year in the Super Bowl they scored 21 points in the fourth quarter to overcome a 10 point deficit. Nobody would be shocked to see this trend continue in SBLIV. The over is 23-10 in the Buccaneers last 33 games overall, and they have gone over in nine of their last 13 as an underdog. When the smoke clears it's hard to imagine Patty Mahomes and all his weapons blowing past the Bucs. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -148 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 101 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on KC. The Buffalo Bills have been the better team since midway through the season, and Josh Allen has been playing like an MVP candidate. That being said, Patrick Mahomes is just on another planet. I expect this game be very close, but at the end of the day the Chiefs have the better coach in Andy Reid and a quarterback that does things that nobody else can do. My money is on the Chiefs to escape with a hard fought victory. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers -172 | 31-26 | Loss | -172 | 97 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Green Bay. Tom Brady has had his moments with Tampa, but at the age of 43 I don't think he's well equipped to go head to head with Aaron Rodgers on the road at Lambeau. Rodgers threw for 296 yards and two TDs and the Packers scored 32 points against the #1 ranked defense in the NFL last week. Davante Adams had nine catches for 66 yards and a TD, and I can't see anyone stopping him at the moment. Aaron Jones has also been a beast, averaging 5.5 yards per carry this season. Last week's win at New Orleans was not really that impressive, with Brady failing to throw for 200 yards. Given that the Saints turned the ball over four times, you might have expected a more convincing win for Tampa. The Packers probably should be favored by a TD, but nobody wants to bet against Brady. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-17-21 | Browns +10.5 v. Chiefs | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 43 h 7 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Chiefs. Kansas City are the favorites to repeat as Super Bowl Champions, and I can't argue with that. Patrick Mahomes is on a different level than anyone else in the league, and he always seems to be able to move the ball when the game is on the line. Asking the Chiefs to cover a double digit spread is another story. The Chiefs last double digit win came against the Jets, and they have played eight games since then. In last year's playoffs Kansas City trailed in all three of their games, despite winning all three games by double digits. The Browns are a dangerous opponent, and their ability to run the ball and control the clock could pose problems for the Chiefs. Keep in mind that in college Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma played Patrick Mahomes and Texas Tech. It was one of the highest scoring games in history, and the Mayfield was on the winning end of 66-59 shootout. We could see another thriller here at Arrowhead. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-16-21 | Ravens v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
10* |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama -7.5 | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 197 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Alabama. Ohio State is coming off a huge win over Clemson, by far their most impressive performance of the season. They had previously struggled against the likes of Indiana, Penn State and Northwestern. The BIG10 actually had to change the rules in the middle of the season, allowing the Buckeyes to play in their Championship Game. Technically Ohio State shouldn't even be here. They face an Alabama team that has crushed everything in their path, and their win over Notre Dame wasn't as close as the score would suggest. The Crimson Tide have the QB, the offensive line, star wideouts and a beast in the backfield in Najee Harris. I can't see the Buckeyes stopping Alabama, and I can't see Justin Fields matching serves with Mac Jones. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-10-21 | Ravens v. Titans +3.5 | 20-13 | Loss | -113 | 36 h 29 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Tennessee. The Titans offense is humming along, and they've scored 30+ points in six of their last seven games. The only exception was in a snow storm in Green Bay. They host the Ravens Sunday, and we all remember what happened the last time these teams met in the playoffs. They scored 28 points on the road in an upset win at Baltimore last year. Unfortunately for the Titans, their defense has struggled and they might need to score more than that here in this Wild Card game at home. While Tennessee surely has struggled at times, I am not sure I can get behind the Ravens as a road favorite given Lamar Jackson's history of post-season failure. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks -4 | 30-20 | Loss | -101 | 91 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Seattle. The Seahawks defense struggled this season, but they held opponents to an average of 15 points in their last seven games. During that time it's been the offense that has struggled, but that didn't stop them from winning six of those seven games. That includes a 20-9 home win over the Rams, knocking Jared Goff out with a thumb injury. It remains to be seen if Goff can return, but regardless the Seahawks have a huge edge at quarterback, and a far more dependable RB in Chris Carson. DK Metcalf has been inconsistent, but he's got something to prove against Jalen Ramsey. I'll take the Hawks at home here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-09-21 | Colts v. Bills -6.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -103 | 88 h 47 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Buffalo. The public is lining up to back the Bills in their return to the post-season, and experts are cautioning that the spread is a little inflated. That being said, you just can't discount that this appears to be a team peaking at the right time. The Bills won six straight games all by 10 or more points since Week 12. During that time Josh Allen has been the best quarterback in the league. He's surely superior to a 39 year old Phillip Rivers, who at this point in his career is a "game manager" at best. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-03-21 | Washington Football Team +4 v. Eagles | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 167 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Washington. The Redskins are desperately trying to hang on to first place in the NFC East, and they finish the season on the road at Philly. Alex Smith should be back, and Washington is 4-0 in his last five starts. The Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. The Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall, and they are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss. The Redskins are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Philadelphia. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-03-21 | Packers v. Bears +4.5 | 35-16 | Loss | -115 | 163 h 6 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Chicago. The Bears host the Packers on Sunday, and this game should mean a lot more to the home team. The Packers are coming off a blowout win over the Seahawks, and they could be due for a let down. Technically the Packers are still looking to clinch home field throughout the playoffs, but they are still reeling after the loss of David Bakhtiari. The Bears absolutely need to win this game or there will be no playoffs. The Bears are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games as a home underdog. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-03-21 | Cowboys +3 v. Giants | 19-23 | Loss | -120 | 160 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Cowboys. Dallas comes into the final game riding a three game winning streak. They need to beat the Giants and hope for some help if they want to get into the playoffs. Andy Dalton got off to a slow start, but he's thrown seven TD passes and just one INT during this three game winning streak. The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven versus the Giants. The Giants are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-02-21 | Oregon v. Iowa State -4.5 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cyclones. The Oregon Ducks won the PAC12 Title by default, because the Washington Huskies had to forfiet their spot in the Championship Game due to Covid. Oregon looked good in their upset win over USC, but that was only their fourth win of the season. It was their only game against a ranked team. The Cyclones on the other hand won eight games in the BIG12, with wins over Oklahoma and Texas. The Ducks are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games, while the Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-02-21 | Ole Miss +10 v. Indiana | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
5* |
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01-01-21 | Ohio State v. Clemson -7 | 49-28 | Loss | -113 | 47 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Clemson. The Buckeyes are currently unhappy about the different Covid-19 protocols that seem to apply to Clemson, rather than the draconian measures imposed by the BIG10. This is the difference between these two teams. The Buckeyes have played just six games, while Clemson played a full schedule. The BIG10 tried to destroy this football season, while the SEC and the ACC were successful in saving it. Anything short of an ACC vs SEC Final would be an injustice IMO. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-01-21 | Notre Dame v. Alabama -19.5 | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 44 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Alabama. Everyone seems to agree, the question is not whether Alabama will beat Notre Dame, the question is by how much? The last time these teams played the Irish lost by a score of 42-14. There is reason to believe that this year's squad is more talented than the team that has been on the wrong side of several lopsided Playoff games in recent years. The bad news is that Alabama looks even better than they have in past seasons. They have averaged almost 50 points per game, scoring over 40 points in every game since Week 1. The Irish simply aren't built to compete with the likes of this SEC powerhouse. This should be another blowout. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati +7 v. Georgia | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 37 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Cincinnati (outright). The Bearcats are another undefeated team that was snubbed by the College Football Playoff Commitee. Reminds me of UCF, and how pissed off they were heading into their Bowl Game when they stomped Auburn in the Peach Bowl back in 2018. Kirby Smart is trying to do damage controll, denying reports that as many as nine starters will opt out of the bowl game. Cincinnati has confirmed that not a single player has opted out as of Wednesday. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-30-20 | Florida v. Oklahoma -1 | 20-55 | Win | 100 | 31 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Oklahoma. |
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