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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions OVER 51.5 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 72 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The Lions are 5-7, and yet they are favorite here at home against a 10-2 Minnesota team. Both these teams are playing their best football of late, each winnimng four of their last five games. The Lions rank dead last in the NFL in total defense, allowing 402 yards per game. Right behind them are the Vikings allowing 398 yards per game. The Lions lost 28-24 at Minnesota earlier this season, and last December they won 29-27 at Ford Field. The over is 11-5 in the Vikings last 16 road games, and the Lions have gone over in six of their last eight home games. The over is 4-1 in the Vikings last five at Detroit. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-11-22 | Eagles v. Giants +7 | 48-22 | Loss | -115 | 72 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NYG. The Eagles own the best record in the NFL, but they are asked to cover a big spread in a divisional road game in bad weather this week. History tells us that the home team has won outright in six of the last seven head to head meetings. The Eagles have only covered in one of their last seven road games, and the Giants have covered in four of their last five home games. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-08-22 | Raiders v. Rams OVER 43.5 | 16-17 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Over. Heading into the season we thought the duo of Derek Carr and Davante Adams would put up huge numbers. They got off to a slow start, but over the last five games Adams is averaging over 132 receiving yards per game. He also has seven TDs during that span. The Raiders come into LA as winners of three in a row, and they face a Rams defense decimated by injuries. Geno Smith threw for 367 yards and three TDs in LA on Sunday. Despite a lost season for the Rams, they were still competitive against Seattle. These games may just be an opportunity for players like Cam Akers and Van Jefferson to pad their stats. The Raiders 26th ranked defense allows 25 points per game, so there should be opportunities. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs -180 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 164 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Tampa. While the Bucs have significant injury concerns on the offensive line and the secondary, I am not sure that a Saints team that has lost four straight road games and sits dead last in the NFC South standings can upset the division leaders. Tom Brady versus Andy Dalton in a Prime Time game with playoff implications, I gotta go with the Bucs. The last tine the Red Rifle won a Monday night game was with Cincinnati back in 2014, he's 0-6 since. Brady has Evans, Godwin and Jones all healthy, and while a makeshift offensive line might force him to get get rid of the ball in a hurry, he's proven more than capable of doing just that. In fact he has the quickest release time of any current starting QB since the start of last season. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-04-22 | Chargers -150 v. Raiders | 20-27 | Loss | -150 | 266 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LAC. The Raiders are coming off a 40-34 win at Seattle, and they had over 500 total yards in the victory. They will be in LA to take on the Chargers, and LA is banged up on defense. Justin Herbert is one of five QBs in the NFL with over 3,000 yards passing, which is even more impressive when you consider he's missed his top two WRs for most of the season. Keenan Allen is back, and he caught a TD pass against Arizona last week. The over is 8-3 in the Chargers last 11 games following a ATS loss. I expect this game to be a shootout, and I don't see Derek Carr winning a duel against Justin Herbert. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-04-22 | Seahawks -150 v. Rams | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 266 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on SEA. The Seahawks are just a game out of first place in the NFC West, and they play a Rams team that is going through the motions as this season looks like a lost cause. Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald are all out for the Rams. LA has lost five straight, four of those by 7+ points. Seattle is coming off a home loss to the Raiders, but the Seahawks are 41-20-4 ATS in their last 65 games following a straight up loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-04-22 | Jaguars v. Lions -115 | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 132 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on DET. The Lions have won three of their last four overall, with the one loss during that span coming on Thanksgiving against Super Bowl favorites Buffalo. They get a few extra days to rest up and prepare for the Jags, and this looks like a potential let down spot for Jacksonville. Despite being out-ganed 415-332 in total yards, the Jags upset the Ravens at home last week. They lost RB Travis Etienne to a sprained foot, and his status is in question this week. The Jaguars are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine road games, and they have failed to cover in seven of their last nine coming off a win. They have lost three straight at Ford Field, and that's a trend we expect to continue. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-03-22 | Central Florida v. Tulane -160 | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 75 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Tulane. This is a revenge spot for Tulane after losing 38-31 to UCF last month. John Rys Plumlee ran for 176 yards in the win, and we aren't even certain he is going to play in the rematch. If he does play, he's going to be hard pressed to run for 176 yards on a sore hamstring. The Green Wave are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 conference games, and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 overall. They have the top ranked defense in the American, and they come into this game playing the better football. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-03-22 | Kansas State +110 v. TCU | 31-28 | Win | 110 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on K-State. The betting line for this game tells you everything you need to know. The 12-0 Horned Frogs aren't even asked to cover a FG against a three loss K-State team?? Well the bookmakers, the public and the sharps all know that K-State was taking TCU behind the wood shed back in October. They opened up a 28-10 lead in the middle of the 2nd quarter, but then they lost both their first and second string QBs, and everything went to hell. We have every reason to believe that the Wildcats will give TCU fits here in this revenge spot. Kansas State has outscored opponents by 122 points in the first half of games this season, and the Horned Frogs have been plagued by slow starts. Consider a 1st half play as well. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-02-22 | Utah v. USC -145 | 47-24 | Loss | -145 | 79 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on USC. This is a revenge game for the Trojans, who lost 43-42 at Utah earlier in the year. Cam Rising threw for 415 yards and two TDs on 30-of-44 passing in that game, and the Utes scored a TD and converted on a two-point try in the final minute. Rising struggled in the loss at Oregon, throwing for 170 yards and three INTs on 21-of-36 passing. The Trojans have a playoff berth on the line, and a Heisman favorite at QB. This game looks like it will be a shootout, and the Trojans have more weapons. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 45 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 152 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Under. The last game played at Gillette Stadium saw the Patriots score just three points up until the final five seconds of regulation. They were quite fortunate that they held the Jets to just three points on just 103 yards of offense. They were even luckier to return a punt for a touchdown to walk the game off for the win. They host the Buffalo Bills on Thursday night, and both these teams boast Top 5 scoring defenses each allowing just 18 points per game. The weatherman says it's going to be cold with rain and wind (if you can trust the forecast several days out). The Pats have held opponents to three points or less in three of their last four games. I think 21 points will be enough to win this game GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-27-22 | Packers v. Eagles -6.5 | 33-40 | Win | 100 | 154 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Philly. The Packers have lost six of their last seven games, and they will not be going to the playoffs. If there was ever a time to pack it in, and give up on the season, this is it. Aaron Rodgers has not only played poorly, he's blamed everyone else around him. The Eagles are 9-1, and six of those nine wins came by more than seven points. Philly has an NFL best 18 rushing TDs this season, and they rank 5th in the NFL in total offense. With Rodgers playing hurt with a broken thumb, this game could get out of hand and we could see Jordan Love at some point. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-27-22 | Chargers -135 v. Cardinals | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 150 h 60 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LAC. Both these teams have been hit hard by injuries, but the Chargers offense is in far better shape with Kennan Allen back in the fold. Allen caught five passes for 94 yards in his first game back versus the Chiefs last week. The Cardinals are hoping to get Kyler Murray back this week, but if his hamstring is anything less than 100 percent he may not be that effective. The Chargers looked pretty good pushing Kansas City to the brink last week, but Patrick Mahomes got the best of them once again. LA is 5-1 ATS in their last six games off a loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-27-22 | Bucs -165 v. Browns | 17-23 | Loss | -165 | 147 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on TB. |
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11-27-22 | Broncos -130 v. Panthers | 10-23 | Loss | -130 | 74 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on the Broncos. Honestly.... it's really hard to like the Broncos. This team is a mess, with an overpaid quarterback and a head coach that is in way over his head. That being said, Russell Wilson is a Super Bowl champion, and he doesn't lack skill. He's won at the highest level, and at the end of the day he's a lot more reliable than Sam Darnold. The Panthers made a desperation move, handing the ball to a guy who has thrown more picks than TDs over his last two seasons as a starter. Darnold steps in to face the NFL's #3 ranked scoring defense, It might be hard for Nathaniel Hackett to EFF UP bad enough to lose this game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-26-22 | Notre Dame v. USC OVER 63 | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The Trojans can keep their playoff hopes alive with a win at home over Notre Dame, but this game could be tricky. Just a week after they gave up 45 points in a win over UCLA, we should expect the Irish do get their fair share of points here in LA. This USC defense has been lit up for 30+ points in four of their last five games, but they also have the nation's #3 ranked offense. Notre Dame has a resume propped up by signature wins over #16 Syracuse and #4 Clemson. The Orange had an injury at QB, and they had home field against the Tigers. Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison present a whole different challenge than DJ Uiagalelei and the Tigers. Look for USC to win a shootout here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-26-22 | Notre Dame v. USC -180 | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on USC. The Trojans can keep their playoff hopes alive with a win at home over Notre Dame, but this game could be tricky. Just a week after they gave up 45 points in a win over UCLA, we should expect the Irish do get their fair share of points here in LA. This USC defense has been lit up for 30+ points in four of their last five games, but they also have the nation's #3 ranked offense. Notre Dame has a resume propped up by signature wins over #16 Syracuse and #4 Clemson. The Orange had an injury at QB, and they had home field against the Tigers. Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison present a whole different challenge than DJ Uiagalelei and the Tigers. Look for USC to win a shootout here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-26-22 | Tennessee v. Vanderbilt +14 | 56-0 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Vandy. There are "dream crusher" spots, and then there is the situation that the Vols find themselves in. Not only did their playoff hopes go up in smoke with a blowout loss to an inferior team last week, but they lost their starting QB and Heisman candidate Hendon Hooker for the rest of the season. Then we have Vandy, fresh off an upset win over Florida. We really have no idea what to expect from Tennessee here, but you can bet your ass that Vandy is gonna bring it! Don't be surprised if the Commodores win outright. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State UNDER 58.5 | 34-38 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Utah Utes rank 1st in the Pac12 in total defense, and they are allowing 20 points per game this season. Oregon State comes in allowing 20.3 points per game. The Beavers at home though are borderline elite defensively. This was evident when they held USC to a season low 17 points, and Caleb Williams to just 180 yards on 16-of-36 passing in late September. Bo Nix was playing on one leg last week, but the Ducks got the win 20-17 over Utah behind a strong effort from the defense. The under is 11-4 in the Ducks last 15 road games, and the under is 5-1 in the Beavers last six home games versus a team with a winning road record. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-25-22 | NC State v. North Carolina OVER 56 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The Tar Heels have a high powered offense and a Heisman contender at QB, but they rank dead last in the ACC against the pass. Freshman QB MJ Morris has proven he can move the ball against below average defenses, throwing for 475 yards and six TDs in wins over Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. The Wolfpack had a bit of a let down last week against Boston College, but expect them to be better in this rivalry game. The over is 20-8 in the Tar Heels last 28 versus a team with a winning record. Expect both teams to do their share of scoring in what should be a great game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-25-22 | Tulane +110 v. Cincinnati | Top | 27-24 | Win | 110 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Tulane. Can you believe that the defending conference champs are getting almost no respect from bookmakers here against Tulane? Well there is a good reason for that. The Bearcats lost a ton of talent from last year's historic Playoff team. They rank near the bottom of the AAC in rushing, only Temple averages fewer yards per game. That could hurt them here in a huge game against the #1 defense in the conference. That's especially true because there is some uncertainty at the QB position. The Green Wave are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games, and they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine conference games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-24-22 | Patriots v. Vikings -152 | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 82 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the Vikings. So the Patriots held the Jets to 104 total years of offense on Sunday, but up until the final seconds of the 4th quarter the game was tied 3-3. It was a special teams TD in the last five seconds of the game that one it for New England, and I am not so sure we should be impressed by that. They aren't playing Zach Wilson this Thanksgiving in Minnesota. The Vikings are coming off their worst performance of the season, but it really shouldn't have surprised anybody that they had a let down after upsetting the Super Bowl favorites in Buffalo. The Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-24-22 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss OVER 58.5 | 24-22 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. Ole Miss ran for 463 yards, and gained a total of 703 yards in a loss (yeah that's right) to Arkansas last week. They also gave up over 500 yards to the Hogs, and 335 yards on the ground. They face a Mississippi State team in the Egg Bowl that doesn't run much, but Will Rogers did throw for 336 yards in a losing effort versus the Rebels last year. The Rebels have gone over in five of their last six overall, and the over is 4-1 in their last five coming off a loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-20-22 | Chiefs v. Chargers +5.5 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a 10* play on LA Chargers. There is history here between these division rivals, and recent meetings have been great games going down to the wire. Justin Herbert threw for 334 yards 3TDs, 1 INT on 33-of-48 passing in a 27-24 loss at Kansas City earlier this year. Last year he threw for 517 yards, 6 TDs and 1 INT on 48-of-76 passing in two games against the Chiefs last year. Kansas City has only covered in one of their last six head to head meetings versus the Chargers, and that win came in overtime 34-28 last December in LA. We could see Keenan Allen and Mike Williams return this week. That would be a huge boost for Justin Herbert. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-20-22 | Bengals -190 v. Steelers | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Cincinnati. The Bengals lost their home opener to the Steelers, and they have a chance to right that wrong in a revenge game here in Pittsburgh this week. Cinci won 24-10 at Pittsburgh last year, and they have won three of the last four meetings outright. The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games, and they are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 overall. Kenny Picket has thrown four times more picks than he has TDs this season (2-8). The Steelers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-20-22 | Jets v. Patriots -165 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 119 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NE. I take a lot of things into consideration before placing a bet. I don't blindly follow specific trends or situations without a deep dive into the matchup, personnel, weather and every angle I can find. Here in this game it's pretty simple, we got Bill Belichick at home, coming off a bye in a divisional game. The Patriots are 10-0 straight up against the Jets since 2017, and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home game versus New York. After an upset win over the Buffalo Bills, this looks like a let down spot for the Jets. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-20-22 | Lions v. Giants -160 | 31-18 | Loss | -160 | 119 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NYG. The betting public seems to be hesitant to jump on the Giants bandwagon, but I have been high on New York since the pre-season. Here is what I said in my season win total prediction: "The Giants used a first round pick in the 2022 draft to select right tackle Evan Neal out of Alabama. An improved offensive line could go a long way in helping Jones limit the turnovers in 2022." Jones hasn't thrown a pick in his last six starts, and New York is 5-1 in those games. The Lions could be due for a let down coming off a come from behind win at Chicago. Saquon ran for 152 yards on 35 carries last week, and with a stud in the backfield and a mobile QB the Giants are designed to win in cold and windy weather in November at home versus a dome team. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-19-22 | UNLV v. Hawaii +11.5 | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a free play on Hawaii. The final home game for the Rainbow Warriors, and they are 2-2 in their last four at home. They only lost by a combined 14 points to Mountain West powerhouses Wyoming and Utah State. They are getting double digits here at home against a UNLV team riding a five game losing skid. Don't even get me started by telling me the Rebels need to run the table to become bowl eligible, such a laughable talking point when a team has lost five straight. The Rainbow Warriors out-gained the Aggies 541-374 in total yards last week, but lost the turnover battle 4-0. I am gonna go out on a limb here and call for the outright win for Hawaii. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-19-22 | Utah -122 v. Oregon | 17-20 | Loss | -122 | 54 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Utah. This is a "Dream Crusher" situation for the Ducks after getting knocked out of the College Football Playoffs by Washington last week. I don't automatically bet against teams in this spot, but when combined with the matchup, facing a Utah team that beat them handily twice last season (38-7 and 38-10) and the fact that Utah ranks #1 in the PAC12 in total defense, I can't ignore it. Then on top of all that, Bo Nix who has been a big part of the running game (14 rushing TDs) has a bad knee and might not play. A lot of people fall victim of a logical fallacy when it comes to injury news, thinking that there are only two possible outcomes: He will play, or he won't play. In fact there are several possible outcomes to consider. One of those is that he plays, and he isn't 100 percent and thus isn't very effective. I think that scenario is a likely one. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-19-22 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State UNDER 47.5 | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-19-22 | Iowa +2.5 v. Minnesota | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 25 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Iowa. At first glance you have Minnesota (7-3) hosting Iowa (6-4) and you might assume the home team has the edge. These teams are currently trending in opposite directions though, with Iowa coming off three straight double digit wins. The Hawkeyes are still undervalued after struggling on offense early in the season. They are by no means an offensive juggernaut, but their defense is so good that even a pedestrian effort on the other side of the ball makes them formidable. The Hawkeyes are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six versus the Gophers, and they have covered in four of their last five at Minnesota. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-19-22 | Cincinnati v. Temple UNDER 51 | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-19-22 | Virginia Tech v. Liberty -10 | 23-22 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Liberty. So Liberty had a huge win over Arkansas, and then suffered a let down last week in a loss to UCONN. They host Virginia Tech this week, and the Hokies have lost seven straight. If Virginia Tech is going to get up for any game, it would be their final home game against Virginia. This week looks like a flat spot for the Hokies, and an opportunity for Hugh Freeze to bolster his resume. The Flames are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games, and the Hokies are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-19-22 | Illinois +17.5 v. Michigan | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Illinois. Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score. It seems like 17.5 points is a big number in a bad weather game between the #1 and #3 ranked defenses. You also have the look ahead spot for the Wolverines, who have a huge game against Ohio State on deck. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-19-22 | Duke v. Pittsburgh UNDER 49.5 | 26-28 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-19-22 | Indiana v. Michigan State UNDER 47.5 | 39-31 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-19-22 | Illinois v. Michigan UNDER 42 | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-19-22 | TCU v. Baylor UNDER 58 | Top | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 43 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Under. So TCU scored just 17 points on 289 total yards in a win at Texas last week. Their defense was impressive, holding Texas to 10 points on 199 total yards. The question is, did Texas give Dave Aranda the blueprint for slowing down the Horned Frogs offense? I think Baylor has to try to replicate what Texas did, slowing down this game and limiting the possessions. Blake Shapen threw for 203 yards and two INTs on 22-38 passing last week, so don't expect him to be slinging it around the yard this week. I expect to see both teams favor the run in bad weather, resulting in time coming off the clock. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-17-22 | Titans v. Packers -170 | 27-17 | Loss | -170 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the Packers. The Titans have been getting it done with smoke and mirrors. They have won six of their last seven games, but that run is as phony as a two dollar bill. They beat the Colts twice, the Texans, Broncos, Raiders and Commanders. The Packers on the other hand are coming off a home win over Dallas that might be just what they need to get back on track. There are big injury concerns for the Titans, they have ruled out center Ben Jones (concussion), safety Amani Hooker (shoulder), kicker Randy Bullock (right calf) and outside linebacker Bud Dupree (hip). Aaron Rodgers has a career record of 88-21-1 at Lambeau. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-17-22 | SMU v. Tulane -165 | 24-59 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Tulane. I like the Green Wave to bounce back after a terrible home loss to UCF. They face a completely different opponent here this week. The Knights gashed them on the ground for 336 yards and four TDs, with John Rhys Plumlee doing much of the damage. Tanner Mordecai isn't going to do that this week, as it's more a matchup of strength versus strength. The Mustangs high powered passing attach runs into the Tulane defense that ranks 1st in the AAC against the pass allowing just 175 yards per game. The Mustangs are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games, and they have failed to cover in 14 of their last 20 in the month of November. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-16-22 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan UNDER 49.5 | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. Traditionally midweek MAC games have been high scoring. I am betting against that trend continuing here on Wednesday night. The weatherman says to expect rain, snow and wind. The wind is the most significant factor. High winds make kicking field goals a tricky proposition, prompting more fourth down attempts, eventually leading to empty drives. When the passing game is off the table, the clock keeps ticking with every running play. The Broncos have failed to reach the total in four straight overall, and five straight when coming off a loss. Jesse Schule |
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11-16-22 | Miami-OH v. Northern Illinois UNDER 45.5 | 29-23 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. Traditionally midweek MAC games have been high scoring. I am betting against that trend continuing here on Wednesday night. The weatherman says to expect rain, snow and wind. The wind is the most significant factor. High winds make kicking field goals a tricky proposition, prompting more fourth down attempts, eventually leading to empty drives. When the passing game is off the table, the clock keeps ticking with every running play. The Red Hawks have gone under in five of their last six MAC games, and they have failed to reach the total in five straight road games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-16-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Kent State UNDER 60.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Under. Traditionally midweek MAC games have been high scoring. I am betting against that trend continuing here on Wednesday night. The weatherman says to expect rain, snow and wind. The wind is the most significant factor. High winds make kicking field goals a tricky proposition, prompting more fourth down attempts, eventually leading to empty drives. When the passing game is off the table, the clock keeps ticking with every running play. The Golden Flashes have gone under in six of their last seven MAC games, and the under is 6-2 in their last eight versus Eastern Michigan. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-15-22 | Ohio -160 v. Ball State | 32-18 | Win | 100 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Ohio. The Bobcats have won five straight, and they are 5-1 in the MAC. Nathan Rourke leads the conference in passing with 3.087 yards, 24 TDs and 4 INTs. Ball State ranks dead last in the MAC in rushing defense, and they lost their last home game by a score of 20-16 to Eastern Michigan. The Cardinals are 17-35 ATS in their last 52 home games, and they have failed to cover in four of their last five versus a team with a winning record. Ohio has won all three meetings versus Ball State since 2012. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-13-22 | Cowboys v. Packers UNDER 44 | 28-31 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 48 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. This is the last stand for the Packers this season. If they are going to save the season it has to happen here against Dallas. They get a home game in bad weather, normally an ideal spot for this team. I expect them to bring a ton of intensity on defense and lean on their running game. It's not clear if Aaron Rodgers can do anything with this receiving corps. The Cowboys have failed to reach the total in seven of their last nine overall, and the under is 7-3 in their last 10 games in November. The under is 6-1 in the Packers last seven games following a straight up loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-13-22 | Browns v. Dolphins -175 | 17-39 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Miami. How much better are the 6-3 Dolphins than the 3-5 Browns? Well we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that Miami is actually 6-0 when Tua starts and finishes a game. They are 0-3 when he has been sidelined by injury. The Browns are expected to see a healthy Tua with Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle today. The Browns are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points, and the Dolphins are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games versus a team with a losing road record. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-13-22 | Lions v. Bears -138 | 31-30 | Loss | -138 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a free play on Chicago. |
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11-13-22 | Seahawks v. Bucs -145 | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 42 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on TB. As bad as the Bucs have been so far, they come into this international game against Seattle sitting first in the NFC South. They are finally healthy on both sides of the ball, with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Julio Jones all expected to start. It's likely that Brady will pass Patrick Mahomes as the NFL passing leader during this game. Seattle is off to a surprising 6-3 start, but they look as though they are due for a let down. The Seahawks have failed to cover in four of their last five versus the Bucs, and this looks like a tough spot for Geno and company. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-12-22 | Boise State v. Nevada UNDER 47.5 | 41-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 10* play on Under. Did you know it snows in Nevada? Maybe not in Las Vegas but snow is actually pretty common in Reno. The forecast is calling for snow and -5 temps in a late game in Reno here on Saturday night. Boise State doesn't have much of a passing game with QB Taylen Green (6 TD, 4 INT). We've seen the total go under in six of Nevada's last eight home games in the month of November, and these two teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last eight head to head meetings. Not surprising considering Nevada ranks 119th nationally in passing (176 yards per game). GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-12-22 | TCU v. Texas -7 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on Texas. The Horned Frogs are 9-0 and currently eyeing a spot in the College Football Playoffs. I've been waiting for a spot to go against them for weeks now, as they have been getting it done with smoke and mirrors. Wins over Oklahoma, Kansas, Kansas State and Oklahoma State all came against opponents with an injured starting quarterback. They overcame double digit deficits versus the Cowboys and the Wildcats, and they figure to be down early here in Texas. I guess all the sharps are seeing the same thing here, and TCU is shaping up to be one of this season's biggest "square dogs". The line of -7 has 70% of the public backing TCU, but the big money is on Texas. This is reminiscent of UCLA vs Oregon, Penn State vs Michigan and Tennessee vs Georgia. I like Texas to win in a rout here, but taking the Horns for the first half might be the best way to attack this line. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-12-22 | Georgia v. Mississippi State +16.5 | 45-19 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MISST. The Bulldogs could be due for a let down after their huge win over Tennesssee, and they are asked to cover a big number on the road at Mississippi State. The (MISST) Bulldogs are 5-0 at home this season, and the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five head to head meetings. Georgia is 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a ATS win. The (MISST) Bulldogs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in November. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-12-22 | Central Florida v. Tulane UNDER 53 | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on Tulane. It's 2022, and in this season the Tulane Green Wave have been the better team. That's not really debatable. Despite coming in with an 8-1 overall record and a 5-0 conference record, they are close to a pickem here at home versus UCF. The Knights have name recognition, and the bigger brand. Starting QB John Rhys Plumlee was sidelined by a concussion last week, and Mikey Keene was solid throwing for 219 yards, three TDs and an INT of 22-of-28 passing in a 35-28 win over Memphis. We expect Plumlee back this week, but he runs into the #11 ranked Tulane defense that is allowing under 17 points per game. The Knights are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win, while the Green Wave are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-12-22 | Central Florida v. Tulane -120 | 38-31 | Loss | -120 | 54 h 51 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on Tulane. It's 2022, and in this season the Tulane Green Wave have been the better team. That's not really debatable. Despite coming in with an 8-1 overall record and a 5-0 conference record, they are close to a pickem here at home versus UCF. The Knights have name recognition, and the bigger brand. Starting QB John Rhys Plumlee was sidelined by a concussion last week, and Mikey Keene was solid throwing for 219 yards, three TDs and an INT of 22-of-28 passing in a 35-28 win over Memphis. We expect Plumlee back this week, but he runs into the #11 ranked Tulane defense that is allowing under 17 points per game. The Knights are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win, while the Green Wave are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-12-22 | Alabama v. Ole Miss OVER 64.5 | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 43 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. Alabama is in uncharted territory, with two regular season losses and presumably eliminated from the college football playoff. A lot of people talk about Alabama being 5-0 ATS coming off a loss, but I am not sure those trends are relevant here in a "dream crusher" scenario. They have been terrible on the road all year, including a 52-49 loss at Tennessee. The Vols had 567 total yards in that game, and it's interesting that Ole Miss presents a similar challenge when it comes to pace of play. When these teams met last year the total was set at 80, and the bookmakers set the total over 70 in three of the last four meetings. The Rebels have gone over the number in four straight games, and I expect both teams to score their fair share here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-12-22 | Louisville v. Clemson UNDER 52.5 | 16-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
This is 4* play on under. Clemson was exposed by Notre Dame last week, but they return home to face a Louisville team that they have owned in recent years. The Tigers are 7-0 straight up in seven meetings since 2014. They will have their hands full with this Cardinals defense, that ranks 4th nationally in sacks per game. DJ Uiagalelei has been sacked 10 times in his last four starts, and he's looked pretty bad when under pressure. Clemson has failed to cover in nine of their last 12 home games. You look back to their most recent home game and they were quite lucky to sneak past Syracuse, scoring 17 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to win 27-21. Don't be surprised if the Cardinals give them a similar challenge. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-12-22 | Louisville +7 v. Clemson | 16-31 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
This is 4* play on LOU. Clemson was exposed by Notre Dame last week, but they return home to face a Louisville team that they have owned in recent years. The Tigers are 7-0 straight up in seven meetings since 2014. They will have their hands full with this Cardinals defense, that ranks 4th nationally in sacks per game. DJ Uiagalelei has been sacked 10 times in his last four starts, and he's looked pretty bad when under pressure. Clemson has failed to cover in nine of their last 12 home games. You look back to their most recent home game and they were quite lucky to sneak past Syracuse, scoring 17 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to win 27-21. Don't be surprised if the Cardinals give them a similar challenge. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-12-22 | Maryland v. Penn State UNDER 57 | 0-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. Maryland couldn't get anything going offensively in a bad weather game at Wisconsin last week. Taulia Tagovailoa threw for just 77 yards with a TD and an INT on 10-of-23 passing in a 23-10 loss. It's expected to be another cold and windy winter day at Beaver Stadium Saturday. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games. These teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last eight meetings, and the under is 4-0 in the last four at University Park. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-12-22 | Wisconsin v. Iowa +1.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Iowa. The Hawkeyes are not the sexiest team in the BIG10, and because of that it's difficult to get anyone to want to bet on them. Perhaps that explains why they are a dog here in a game that they should be a 2-3 point favorite. The Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games, and they have failed to cover in five of their last six coming off a win. The home team is 4-1 straight up in the last five head to head meetings, and the Badgers lost by 21 in their last visit to Iowa (2020). GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-12-22 | Purdue v. Illinois -6.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Illinois Illinois inexplicably lost to Michigan State last week, despite a 441-294 edge in total yards, and a 25-17 edge in first downs. They are in a good spot here at home against Purdue, a team that is reeling after back to back losses to Iowa and Wisconsin. Aidan O'Connell threw five INTs and just one TD pass in those games. He faces the nation's #1 ranked scoring defense in bad weather on the road this week. These teams have failed to reach the total in five straight head to head meetings, and the Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a ATS loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-12-22 | Purdue v. Illinois UNDER 45 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. Illinois inexplicably lost to Michigan State last week, despite a 441-294 edge in total yards, and a 25-17 edge in first downs. They are in a good spot here at home against Purdue, a team that is reeling after back to back losses to Iowa and Wisconsin. Aidan O'Connell threw five INTs and just one TD pass in those games. He faces the nation's #1 ranked scoring defense in bad weather on the road this week. These teams have failed to reach the total in five straight head to head meetings, and the Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a ATS loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-12-22 | SMU v. South Florida OVER 72.5 | 41-23 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The South Florida Bulls fired their head coach after a drubbing at Temple last week. They gave up 54 points to the 119th ranked offense in the country (after scoring 54). On the bright side, Katravis Marsh threw for 176 yards and three TDs. He's thrown for 649 yards, 6 TDs and just one INT since taking over at QB. SMU comes in ranked Top 5 in the nation in passing, and Top 10 in scoring. The over is 12-1 in the Bulls last 13 home games, and they have gone over in 11 of their last 13 coming off a loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-10-22 | Falcons -148 v. Panthers | 15-25 | Loss | -148 | 62 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on ATL. The Falcons have statistically the worst pass defense in the NFL, allowing opponents to average over 300 yards per game. That might not matter against a Carolina team that doesn't have a starting QB. PJ Walker is expected to get the start, despite going 3-of-10 for nine yards and two INTs in a loss to the Bengals last week. The Panthers are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 home games, and they are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 coming off a loss. The Falcons have really had the Panthers number, covering in 10 of the last 14 meetings. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five head to head meetings, and Atlanta has covered in four straight at Carolina. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-08-22 | Ohio -123 v. Miami-OH | 37-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Ohio. The Bobcats have won four straight, and Kurtis Rourke threw five TD passes in a home win over Buffalo last week. Miami Ohio is coming off a win over Akron, despite a 316-184 edge in total yards for the Zips. Akron handed the game to the Redhawks with three turnovers. This game features the best offense in the MAC versus the last place offense in the MAC. The RedHawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win, while Ohio has covered in five straight overall. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-06-22 | Raiders -140 v. Jaguars | 20-27 | Loss | -140 | 2 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on LV. It's not easy to bet on the Raiders after they lost 24-0 at New Orleans, they might be catching the Jags in a good spot. Jacksonville has lost five straight, and it might be tine to start packing it in. The Raiders have won three of the last four meetings, and the Jaguars are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games overall. The Jaguars are 17-35-2 ATS in their last 54 games following a straight up loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-05-22 | Clemson -170 v. Notre Dame | 14-35 | Loss | -170 | 77 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Clemson. All Clemson has done is beat everybody in front of them. A far closer game than expected against Syracuse has some doubting Dabo and company. DJ Uigalelei was not sharp against the Orange, and he was yanked for Cade Klubnik in the win over Syracuse. The Tigers have had plenty of time to get their house in order during a bye week, and they might not need their QB to be great in a game played in bad weather. The matchup favors Clemson, with the #1 ranked run defense in the ACC allowing just 87 rushing yards per game. No luck for the Irish this week. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-05-22 | Alabama v. LSU +13.5 | 31-32 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LSU. If you're betting Alabama as a double digit road favorite, you must have missed their three road games this season. You know, the game they should have and would have lost at Texas if not for a phantom targeting penalty that negated a safety. Or when they won and covered at Arkansas but were leading by less than a TD in the fourth quarter. Or how about giving up 52 points at Tennessee? This is Death Valley at night, against a team that you beat at home last year by a score of 20-14. The Tigers will need a big game from Jayden Daniels if they are gonna hang with Alabama, but he's coming off three straight games completing over 70% of his passes, with six TDs and just one pick in those contests. He also ran for 165 yards and six TDs in his last two starts. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-05-22 | Houston +3.5 v. SMU | Top | 63-77 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Houston. Say what you want about Houston. I would be the first to admit that they have been disappointing this season. Yeah their defense has been bad, really effing bad. That said they come into this game riding a three game winning streak, and they are still in play for the conference title. The Mustangs defense ranks even worse than Houston, allowing 424 yards per game. Clayton Tune is starting to heat up, throwing for over 1,000 yards with 12 TDs and just one INT in his last three starts. I'll take the points in a game that I expect to be a shootout, and give me the better QB, better program and more high end talent up and down the lineup. ALL DAY! GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-05-22 | Tennessee +9.5 v. Georgia | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Tennessee. Maybe the Vols are a square dog, but isn't that what they said before they dropped 52 on Nick Saban and Alabama. We haven't seen UGA really tested this year, but Tennessee presents a unique challenge. It's going to be tough to stop for a Georgia defense that ranks 120th nationally in quarterback sacks, and even tougher without their best pass rusher. I like the Vols to start fast in the first half, and even if they can't hang on for the outright win, they look good to cover this number. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-05-22 | Penn State v. Indiana UNDER 51 | 45-14 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on Under. Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Indiana ranks dead last in the BIG10 in rushing, so if the weather prevents them from having success in the passing game they are going to be in big trouble. They lost 24-0 at Penn State last year, and another low score seems likely here. The under is 8-2 in the Nittany Lions last 10 games in November, and the Hoosiers have failed to reach the total in four of their last five in the BIG10. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-05-22 | Syracuse v. Pittsburgh UNDER 48 | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on Under. Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-05-22 | West Virginia v. Iowa State UNDER 50 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on Under. Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-05-22 | South Florida -2 v. Temple | 28-54 | Loss | -120 | 50 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on USF. South Florida must suck, I mean look at their record. They are 1-7 overall, sitting dead last in the American. Well take a look at their schedule. Three of their losses came against teams ranked in the Top 25, and the other four all came against teams with a winning record. They lost by a FG on the road at Florida, and lost by four at home versus the Cincinnati Bearcats. Temple can't use their schedule as an excuse, they simply are bad, very bad! EJ Warner (Kurts' boy) has thrown twice as many picks (8) as TDs (4) in his last five starts. He doesn't get a lot of help from his offensive line. Since coming in at QB for USF, Katravius March has thrown for 473 yards, 3 TDs and NO PICKS! I like the Bulls to get a feel good win here against an inferior opponent. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-05-22 | Maryland v. Wisconsin UNDER 49.5 | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on Under. Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-03-22 | Eagles -13 v. Texans | 29-17 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on the Eagles. The Texans have just one win in their first seven games, despite being perhaps more competitive than expected. The trade deadline is a turning point for teams like Houston though, and we can expect them to fold like a cheap suit in the second half of the season. Disgruntled WR Brandin Cooks is listed as questionable, after he made comments about "covering up lies" when he wasn't traded at the deadline. Houston has by far the worst run defense in the NFL, allowing over 186 rush yards per game. The Texans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Thursday games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-01-22 | Buffalo v. Ohio UNDER 59 | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Under. Everybody knows that midweek games in the MAC can often be high scoring, and because of that the total for this game is almost at 60. In fact it's six points higher than the last time Buffalo Played in Athens. Only once in the last six head to head meetings has the listed total been higher than 55 points. Even given the much lower totals, only one of the last five head to head meetings reached the number. Buffalo ranks second in the MAC in scoring defense allowing 24 points per game. The under is 4-1 in the Bobcats last five conference games, and the under is 7-2 in the Bulls last nine games following a straight up win. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-31-22 | Bengals -170 v. Browns | 13-32 | Loss | -170 | 15 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on CINCI. The Bengals are a favorite on the road in Cleveland despite losing both meetings versus the Browns last year. Throw out a meaningless game with backup quarterbacks starting at the end of last season, and these teams have gone over in each of the previous five meetings. The Browns won 41-16 in Cincinnati last November, and both Nick Chubb and Joe Mixon scored two TDs each. The over is 4-0 in the Browns last four home games, and the over is 7-1-1 in the last nine head to head meetings. This is a revenge spot for Cinci, and the Browns might not be up to the task coming off four straight losses. The Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games, while the Browns are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games versus a team with a winning road record. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-30-22 | 49ers -110 v. Rams | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on San Francisco. The 49ers are in a must win situation as they look to avoid a three game losing streak here in LA. The Rams are still trying to shake off a Super Bowl hangover, and Mathew Stafford has struggled all year. Stafford has thrown for more picks (8) than touchdowns (6). He threw for 254 yards and an INT on 32-of-48 passing, and he was sacked seven times in a loss to San Francisco at the beginning of October. The Rams have lost seven of their last eight head to head meetings versus San Francisco, and they have failed to cover in four of their last five home games. The 49ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home. The addition of Christian McCaffrey should pay dividends this week, and I like the visitors to secure a W. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-29-22 | Kentucky +12 v. Tennessee | Top | 6-44 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on Kentucky. The Wildcats are 5-2 and the average margin of defeat in their two losses was 6.5 points. The will be a double digit dog here at Tennesse, after last season's meeting went down to the wire with the Vols winning 45-42. Will Levis threw for 372 yards and three TDs on 31-of-49 passing in that game, and Chris Rodriguez ran for 109 yards on 22 carries. Levis didn't play in the loss to the Gamecocks, but coming off a bye week the Wildcats should be ready to go to battle with their rivals Tennessee. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams, and the road team has covered in six of the last seven. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-29-22 | Temple v. Navy -13 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on Navy. The Midshipmen struggle to defend the pass, and that has cost them against the likes of Houston and SMU. This week they are at home against a Temple offense that ranks 104th nationally in passing. Kurt Warner's boy (E.J.) has completed roughly 50 percent of his passes, and has as many picks (7) as he does TDs. Making matters worse for Temple, they have given up a combined 603 rushing yards in their last two games. Navy can still run the ball, and facing a team with low level talent that struggles to stop the run should be an ideal situation here. Navy won 38-14 at Temple last year, and the Owls might expect a similar result here in Annapolis. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-29-22 | Wake Forest -175 v. Louisville | 21-48 | Loss | -175 | 74 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Wake. Louisville is coming off back to back wins, and they are 3-1 in their last four games. So have they turned their season around, or have they simply benefited from playing inferior opposition? I think it's the latter. They beat Pitt 24-10 last week, despite fewer total yards, first downs and time of possession. Pitt QB Kedon Slovis threw for 158 yards and a pair of INTs on 16-of-29 passing. Sam Hartman is in town, and he's thrown for 1,755 yards 21 TDs and just three INTs so far this season. There is a huge gap in talent between the two teams, and that should be evident here on Saturday. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-29-22 | Northwestern v. Iowa UNDER 38 | 13-33 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on Under. Northwestern comes into Iowa on a six game losing streak, scoring an average of just 16.5 points per game in those losses. This Iowa defense is better than any they have faced this season, and you really have to wonder how the Wildcats could possibly score a TD here. It's likely more likely that their defense record a pick-six than it is for their offense to punch one in. Iowa's offense is historically bad, so it could be a busy day for kickers. These teams have failed to reach the total in five straight meetings, and they combined for an average of less than 30 points in those games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-27-22 | Ravens v. Bucs +105 | 27-22 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 27 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on TB. Fournette has scored four TDs in his last four games played, and the Ravens have allowed eight rushing TDs in their last five games. With the Ravens struggling secondary taking so many pass interference penalties, the chance that Fournette gets to run one in from a 1st and goal at the 1-yard line seems high. This looks like a get right spot for the Bucs, and they might get some help from the officials here at home. The Ravens are 1-6 ATS versus a team with a losing record, and they have failed to cover in four straight overall. They were lucky last week against the Browns, with Cleveland missing a late potential game tying FG. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-24-22 | Bears v. Patriots UNDER 40.5 | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Under. The Patriots welcome back Mac Jones on Monday night at home against the Bears, despite the fact that their offense looked a lot better with Bailey Zappe under center. Jones has thrown for 786 yards, 2 TDs and 5 INTs on 66 percent passing this season. This isn't exactly a favorable matchup as the Bears rank among the best in the NFL against the pass allowing just over 170 yards per game. The good news for New England is that Chicago can't stop the run, allowing over 160 yards per game on the ground. This should prompt Belicheck to pound the rock, burning the clock and slowing the game down. History favors the under, as the Patriots have gone under in six of their last seven MNF games, while the Bears have failed to reach the total in six of their last eight on Monday night. The under is 11-2 in the Bears last 13 games in October. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-23-22 | Steelers v. Dolphins -7 | 10-16 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on MIA. The Dolphins were on a roll before Tua got hurt, and they get their QB back this week. A home game against the Steelers looks like a favorable spot for Tua and the Dolphins. The Steelers are due for a let down after a home upset win over Tom Brady and the Bucs. The Steelers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win, and they have failed to cover in six of their last eight road games. The Dolphins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games versus a team with a losing road record. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-23-22 | Texans v. Raiders -7 | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 87 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on the Raiders. The Texans are coming off a win over Jacksonville, their only win this season. A closer look at that game reveals that they were quite fortunate. They were out-gained 422-248 in total yards, and they benefited from a pair of Trevor Lawrence interceptions. The Raiders have struggled early in the season, but Derek Carr and Davante Adams are starting to click. Adams has a dozen catches for 225 yards and a pair of TDs in his last two starts. Josh Jacobs has run for 298 yards and three TDs in his last two starts. Coming off a bye week, and facing a Texans team that ranks near the bottom of the league allowing over 160 rushing yards per game should bode well for Jacobs and the Raiders. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-23-22 | Browns v. Ravens -6 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Baltimore. The Ravens are coming off an ugly loss on the road at New York, but they've been alternating wins and losses all year. They have a favorable matchup this week, hosting a banged up Cleveland Browns team. Both these teams struggle on defense, but the Ravens struggle against the pass while the Browns struggle against the run. That's bad news for a one-dimensional Cleveland offense that is heavily dependent on the running game. The Ravens on the other hand should be able to take advantage of the Browns poor run defense. The Browns are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games in October, and they have failed to cover in five straight against the Ravens. TheRavens are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-22-22 | Kansas State +3.5 v. TCU | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on K-State. The Horned Frogs upset Oklahoma, dropping 55 points on the Sooners three weeks ago. They have climbed into the Top 10 in the polls after winning back to back games since. Wins over Oklahoma State and Kansas were close, and they came back after trailing by a double digit margin at home last week against the Cowboys. It looks like just a matter of time before the bubble bursts for this undefeated TCU team, and this week's game against K-State looks like a challenging spot. The Wildcats are coming off a bye, and they have all the tools required to cause problems for the Horned Frogs. Weather could be a factor with high winds expected, and that favors the Wildcats with the power running game of Deuce Vaughn and Adrian Martinez. I'll take the points with a K-State team that has won three straight head to head, and has covered in six of their last seven versus TCU. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-22-22 | Syracuse +14 v. Clemson | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 142 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on CUSE. The Orange are undefeated, with quality wins over NC State (last week), Purdue and Louisville. They will be a double digit dog on the road at Clemson, and I think the Tigers have become overrated. As good as Clemson is, they have dealt with a tough schedule heading into this game, and the bubble could be about to burst. Wins over NC State, Wake Forest and Florida State all came by 10 points or fewer. This is the best Syracuse team we have see for decades, but in recent years the Orange have played Clemson really tough. The Tigers won by just a field goal at the Carrier Dome last year, and Syracuse is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. They won outright 27-24 back in 2017. Roberta Anae has the offense firing on all cylinders, Sean Tucker is a beast in the backfield. The Orange aren't getting enough respect in this spot. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-22-22 | Houston -145 v. Navy | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 70 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Houston. The Cougars have been one of the most disappointing teams in the country this season, coming out of their bye week with a 3-3 record. Losing to Kansas and Tulane might not be as bad is it looked at the time, as both teams managed to make it into the AP Top 25. This team has the talent and experience to rally after the bye week and turn their season around. Playing at Navy looks like a favorable matchup for the Cougars, especially when they had extra time to prepare for the Triple-Option. The Midsphipmen have been lit up by opposing QBs, and Clayton Tune and Nathaniel Dell should have their way here in Annapolis. Tune threw for 366 yards and three TDs on 35-of-57 passing in the win over Memphis two weeks ago. Dell caught 10 passes for 81 yards and a TD. Navy doesn't have an answer for that kind of talent. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-22-22 | Cincinnati -145 v. SMU | 29-27 | Win | 100 | 70 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Cincinnati. The bye week came at a good time for the Bearcats. Senior QB Ben Bryant suffered a concussion in the win over South Florida, but he should be good to go after having plenty of time to recover. SMU is coming off a win over Navy, crushing bettors by allowing the Midshipmen to march down the field and score a TD in the final seconds to get the back door cover. A week after John Rhys Plumlee threw for 316 yards and a pair of TDs, Navy's Tai Lavatai threw a pair of TD passes against this Mustangs defense. The Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, they have failed to cover in four straight conference games and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. It looks like a tough matchup for the Mustangs. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-17-22 | Broncos v. Chargers -4 | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on LAC. This matchup features two of the most controversial head coaches in the NFL, but Brandon Staley has more talent to work with. Justin Herbert has thrown for 1,478 yards with 10 TDs and just two picks, and he's likely due for a strong performance three weeks after suffering a rib injury. Russell Wilson is still banged up with a sore shoulder, and he's struggled all season long. The Broncos have failed to cover in five straight road games, and they were lit up by the Raiders in their most recent road game. The home team has covered in five straight head to head meetings, give me LA all day! GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys +5.5 v. Eagles | 17-26 | Loss | -110 | 160 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on DAL. I had the Cowboys as the underdog last week, and bet against the Eagles as a favorite. That worked out well, and I am going right back with the same strategy again this week. Here is what I said over a week ago: "The Eagles are flying high, but they will come crashing back down to earth at some point. They are asked to cover a big number here.." "The betting public might well view this week's home game against the Cowboys as a good bounce back spot for the champs. It's not really a great matchup for a struggling QB (Stafford) who has two more INTs than he does TDs. He faces a Cowboys defense that ranks Top 5 in the NFL against the pass, allowing 171 yards per game." The Cowboys are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games, and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Philadelphia. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-16-22 | Bills -130 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 157 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on BUF. So ever since the Chiefs won the coin flip and marched down the field to score a walk off TD in last year's playoff win over the Bills, we've all been waiting for this rematch. Tyreek Hill had 11 catches for 150 yards and a TD in that game, and he's not going to be there for Patrick Mahomes this time around. The Bills are 4-1, and in their only loss (versus Miami) they had a 497-212 edge in total yards, 31-15 edge in first downs. Buffalo comes in with the league's #1 ranked offense, and the #1 ranked defense. Josh Allen leads the league in passing yards, and QBR. I don't bet on games just because revenge is a factor, but I truly believe that the Bills have improved and the Chiefs have regressed. The added motivation certainly doesn't hurt. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-16-22 | Jaguars v. Colts -1 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 153 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on IND. The Jags beat the Colts 24-0 earlier this season, and for whatever reason Jacksonville just seems to have their number. The Jags have covered in six straight, and nine of the last 10 head to head meetings dating all the way back to 2016. But as my good friend Lee Corso would say: "not so fast my friend". The home team is 10-0 straight up during that span. While the Colts failed to cover in all but one of their four home wins over Jacksonville, the average margin of victory in those games was over 10 points. Jonathan Taylor is expected to return this week, and that could change everything. Given Matt Ryan's struggles, we shouldn't be asking him to do too much. Meanwhile Trevor Lawrence threw for 286 yards and a pair of INTs on 25-of-47 passing in a loss to the Texans last week. The Jaguars are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss, and they have failed to cover in six of their last seven on the road. I'll take the home team just to win straight up. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-15-22 | USC v. Utah -157 | 42-43 | Win | 100 | 104 h 42 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on UTAH. The 6-0 Trojans might be overvalued here as they get set for their toughest game so far. They have played two road games, and they were fortunate to win the turnover battle 8-0 in those games. Even with the Oregon State Beavers turning the ball over four times in Corvallis, the Trojans were lucky to come from behind and score a late TD to win that game. The Trojans also got help from the officials, who refused to call obvious holding penalties on the Trojans offensive line. The Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Utah, and they have failed to cover in seven of their last nine versus the PAC12. The Utes have covered in five straight off a loss, and they are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 conference games. All the breaks have been in favor of USC so far, but YOU KNOW that's it's only a matter of time before they experience regression to the mean. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-15-22 | Clemson -165 v. Florida State | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 56 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Clemson. The Tigers are 6-0 with a pair of wins over ranked teams. One of those wins came on the road at Wake Forest. That same Demon Deacons team went into Tallahassee and beat the Seminoles by double digits. Clemson beat FSU by a score of 30-20 last year, and the Tigers are 6-0 straight up against FSU dating back to 2014. Clemson has improved, especially on offense since last season. DJ Uiagalelei has thrown for 1,462 yards, 14 TDs and just two INTs. The Seminoles are coming off back to back losses, and Jordan Travis has struggled in those games. Injuries have piled up for Florida State, and that's going to make it tough to hang with the best team in the ACC. The Seminoles are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss. I'll take Clemson. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-15-22 | Alabama v. Tennessee +7.5 | 49-52 | Win | 100 | 55 h 27 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Tennessee. The Crimson Tide just barely escaped with a 24-20 win over Texas A&M last week. It was the second time this season that Alabama was pushed to the brink in a game that went right down to the wire. You know what they say: "If you play with fire, you're gonna get burned". Playing on the road at Tennessee might be their toughest test so far, and we don't yet know if QB Bryce Young will be able to play. He's likely to suit up, but unlikely to be 100 percent healthy. The Vols lost 52-24 at Alabama last year, but they were within a single score in the 4th quarter before Alabama scored the game's final 21 points. Hendon Hooker threw for 282 yards and three TDs on 19-of-28 passing in a losing effort. The Vols are in a great spot here to avenge that loss, and I won't be surprised to see them get the upset. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-15-22 | NC State v. Syracuse -167 | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 75 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on CUSE. So the Orange are 5-0, but that's not why I like them as a home favorite versus NC State this week. This just sets up as a great spot for the Orange coming off a bye, and the Wolfpack potentially without their QB. If Devin Leary can play, he sure as sh!t isn't going to be 100 percent. The Wolfpack are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games, and they are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Orange are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. Robert Anai has turned this offense into a more efficient unit, and it should be good enough here against a banged up NC State team. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-15-22 | Penn State +7 v. Michigan | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on PSU. It's tough to get a read on just how good this Michigan team actually is. I've heard a lot of pundits talk about how good their defense is, but when you start quoting stats you need to realize they have only played one team that ranks better than 98th nationally in total offense. That was Maryland, who they beat at home by a score of 34-27. Penn State comes in off a bye week, and they should be ready to get down and dirty here. Unlike the Wolverines, Penn State has played Power Five teams on the road and passed the test. They beat Auburn by 29 points on the road, while #1 ranked Georgia beat Auburn by 32 at home. This game will answer a lot of questions for both teams, but asking the Wolverines to cover a big spread seems like a bit of a stretch when they still haven't played anybody. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-10-22 | Raiders +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on LV. |
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