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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-21-23 | Penn State +5 v. Ohio State | Top | 12-20 | Loss | -110 | 141 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PSU. The Buckeyes come into this week's home game against Penn State with a 6-0 record and they are ranked 3rd nationally. Kyle McCord has pedestrian numbers for an Ohio State quarterback, and at times this team has appeared vulnerable. The win over Maryland two weeks ago was closer than it should have been, and they needed a miracle to beat the Irish at Notre Dame. This team fell apart at the end of last year, losing 45-23 at home to Michigan,and then losing to Georgia in the Peach Bowl. Penn State looks every bit as dangerous as the Michigan team that embarrassed them here last year. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-17-23 | Western Kentucky -7.5 v. Jacksonville State | 17-20 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on WKU. I bet against Jacksonville state a few weeks ago when they were a small underdog at Middle Tennessee. I called them a public dog, and when they trailed by three scores at halftime I thought I was pretty sharp. The Blue Raiders imploded in the second half, and the Gamecocks won again. I still think they are overvalued, and they rank 122nd in strength of schedule. Even though they haven't played anybody, they rank 91st nationally in opponent passing yards. Making matters worse, they might not have their starting QB available for this game. The Hilltoppers scored 35 points in the first half in a win at LA-Tech in their last game, and they should dominate this game from start to finish. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys v. Chargers +3 | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 185 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on LAC. This looks like a good spot to back a Chargers team that has underachieved so far. Dallas comes in as a road favorite, but the shine is starting to wear off. The Cowboys have lost back to back road games to Arizona and San Francisco. Their wins don't look all that impressive either, beating the Jets, Giants and Patriots. While Dallas is trending down, the Chargers are trending up coming off back to back wins over the Raiders and the Vikings. They lost to Miami in week 1 by just two points, and on the road at Tennessee by a field goal. I'll take the points with the home dog. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-15-23 | Lions v. Bucs +3.5 | 20-6 | Loss | -116 | 157 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on TB. The Bucs are 3-1, in first place in the NFC South, and their only loss came against the defending NFC champs Philadelphia. As good as they have looked, they are still getting points as a home dog against the Detroit Lions. The Lions are 4-1, and they have looked good so far. I still think it's a bit much to have them coming in as a road favorite against a 1st place team. Jared Goff is off to a good start after having a solid season last year. One thing that has carried over, is that his home/away splits remain dramatic. Last year he had 23 TDs and home and just six on the road, this year he has 6 TDs at home and two on the road. The Bucs boast a Top 10 defense, and they should be in this game from start to finish. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-15-23 | Colts +5.5 v. Jaguars | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 161 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on INDY. The Colts are tied for first place in the NFC South, but the winner of this week's game at Jacksonville will take sole possession of the top spot in the division. Rookie QB Anthony Richardson is on the IR, leaving Minshew Mania to run the offense. I think Indy is in better shape with Minshew, who is a more proven commodity in the NFL. So far this season the Colts are 3-0 in games that Minshew has played the majority of the snaps, and 0-2 in the games with Richardson at the helm. The Jags are in a let down spot coming off back to back wins in London. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-15-23 | Panthers v. Dolphins -13.5 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 154 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MIA. The Dolphins lead the NFL in scoring, averaging 36 points per game. They host the winless Carolina Panthers, and Carolina ranks 28th in scoring defense allowing 29 points per game. Bryce Young is perhaps biting off more than he can chew as a rookie starter on a poor team. The last time the Dolphins played Carolina they won by a score of 31-10, and there's no reason to expect a competitive game here in Miami this week. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-14-23 | NC State v. Duke UNDER 48.5 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 145 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Blue Devils have had a week off to recover from their heartbreaking loss to Notre Dame, and now they host NC State without starting QB Riley Leonard. We are likely to see freshman Henry Belin IV at QB, and that should mean a conservative game plan relying heavily on the running game and the defense. Duke ranks 4th nationally in scoring defense, and the Wolfpack are starting a backup quarterback who threw three INTs in his debut against Marshall last week. I expect MJ Morris to struggle against this Duke defense. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-14-23 | UCLA v. Oregon State -4 | 24-36 | Win | 100 | 145 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Oregon State. The Bruins couldn't get anything going on offense when they played on the road at Utah, and a trip to Corvallis might just be a recurring nightmare for UCLA. That same Utah team that UCLA had so much trouble with, was held to seven points in a crushing 21-7 loss at Corvallis a week later. Far more significant than the results versus a common opponent, are the similarities in playing in such a hostile environment. The Beavers are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-14-23 | UAB v. UTSA -9 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 124 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on UTSA. I had UTSA last week and I said this prior to their game at Temple: "I was one of many who were high on UTSA heading into the season, but they struggled losing three of their first four games. Put the blame on poor play from starting QB Frank Harris, who has missed the last two games due to injury. The Roadrunners come out of the bye week looking to flip the switch. They couldn't ask for a better spot for a get right game, and Harris is expected to return." Harris threw for 338 yards and three TDs on 25-of-33 passing in the win at Temple, and he should be primed for a big game at home versus UAB. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-14-23 | UCLA v. Oregon State UNDER 54.5 | 24-36 | Loss | -115 | 57 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Bruins couldn't get anything going on offense when they played on the road at Utah, and a trip to Corvallis might just be a recurring nightmare for UCLA. That same Utah team that UCLA had so much trouble with, was held to seven points in a crushing 21-7 loss at Corvallis a week later. Far more significant than the results versus a common opponent, are the similarities in playing in such a hostile environment. The Beavers are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games, and they have held opponents to single digits in all three of their home games this season. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-14-23 | Kansas -155 v. Oklahoma State | 32-39 | Loss | -155 | 119 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Kansas. The Jayhawks are 5-1 with the only loss coming on the road at Texas. They are coming off a blowout win over UCF, and backup quarterback Jason Bean only attempted a dozen passes throwing for 91 yards and a TD on 8-of-12 passing. They ran all over UCF, rushing for 399 yards and 5 TDs. The Jayhawks ran for 351 yards and 2 TDs in a 37-16 win over Oklahoma State last season. The Cowboys quarterback situation is still in disarray, with Allan Bowman completing just over 50 percent of his passes for 743 yards, 2 TDs and 3 INTs. With or without Jalon Daniels I like Kansas to get the win here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-14-23 | Texas A&M v. Tennessee UNDER 55.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 52 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Vols ran for 238 yards and three TDs in a win over South Carolina two weeks ago, but they face a much tougher Aggies defense this week. Texas A&M held Alabama to just 23 rushing yards last week, but Jalen Milroe and Jermaine Burton lit them up. Joe Milton hasn't been lighting anybody up this season, and he won't have his top WR Bru McCoy for the rest of the season. This game should be a defensive battle, and we should expect a low score. Both these teams have held opponents to fewer than 20 points per game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-09-23 | Packers +2.5 v. Raiders | 13-17 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on GB. The Packers will be on the road at Las Vegas, and they are the underdog in this matchup. Green Bay has the advantage of coming off a long week with extra time to prepare, and should be a lot healthier than they were when the lost to the Lions in Week 4, that isn't the only advantage. The Packers are in good shape with Jordan Love at QB, he's thrown for 901 yards, 8 TDs and 3 INTs while Jimmy G has thrown more picks (6) than TDs (5). Playing his first game back coming off a concussion looks like a tough spot for Jimmy G and the Raiders. The books have the wrong team favored here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-08-23 | Jets +3 v. Broncos | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 159 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NYJ. The Broncos shouldn't be a favorite against anybody.The Bears were up big in the 4th quarter last week, but they handed Denver the game. They gave up a fumble recovery for a TD, turned the ball over on downs in field goal range and Justin Fields threw an interception on the Bears final possession. Not even Zach Wilson could eff up a game that bad! At least the Jets can play defense. An ugly and undeserving win over the Bears doesn't in any way convince me that the players are buying into what Sean Payton is selling in Denver. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-08-23 | Giants v. Dolphins -9 | 16-31 | Win | 100 | 157 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MIA. The Dolphins scored 70 in their last home game, and then got humbled in a blowout loss at Buffalo. This is a good bounce back spot for The Fish back home against a banged up Giants team on short rest. No way Vanilla Vick and the GMEM are gonna be able to keep up to Tua, Tyreek and the Dolphins #1 ranked offense. Bet this game quick because the number will likely get bet up before Sunday. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-08-23 | Saints v. Patriots -122 | 34-0 | Loss | -122 | 156 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the PATS. So both these teams were embarrassed last week, but the Patriots were on the road at Dallas while the Saints were a home favorite versus Tampa. Baker Mayfield looked like Tom Brady, and Derek Carr did his best Ryan Leaf impression. I gotta back Bill and the Pats back home off an ugly loss. Both teams have their issues at QB, but Mac Jones has been better at home, and Derek Carr ranks 23rd in the NFL in passing, just ahead of Desmond Ridder. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-07-23 | Oregon State v. California UNDER 52 | 52-40 | Loss | -117 | 66 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Oregon State Beavers offense is heavily reliant on their running game, ranking 16th nationally averaging 206 yards per game. California ranks even higher, averaging 212 yards per game. Both teams are pretty solid on defense, so we should expect this game to be rock fight. The Golden Bears have gone under in all three of their home games so far, and with both teams looking to establish the run we could see a low score here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-07-23 | Central Florida v. Kansas -1 | 22-51 | Win | 100 | 60 h 49 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on KAN. Even if starting QB Jalon Daniels can't play, I think Kansas has enough weapons to blow past UCF at home. Central Florida was outscored 26-0 in the fourth quarter of a home loss to Baylor last week. Timmy McClain struggled at quarterback for UCF, completing just 13-of-25 passes for 234 yards, 2 TDs and an INT. Jason Bean has seven starts dating back to last season, and he threw for 17 TDs and just four INTs in those games. He also ran for four TDs in five starts last year. If Daniels plays, it will be a bonus getting the Jayhawks at this number. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-07-23 | UTSA -13 v. Temple | 49-34 | Win | 100 | 95 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on UTSA. I was one of many who were high on UTSA heading into the season, but they struggled losing three of their first four games. Put the blame on poor play from starting QB Frank Harris, who has missed the last two games due to injury. The Roadrunners come out of the bye week looking to flip the switch. They couldn't ask for a better spot for a get right game, and Harris is expected to return. Temple ranks 11th in the American Athletic Conference in scoring defense allowing 31 points per game. They allowed 48 points and 533 yards of total offense in a loss to Tulsa last week. Harris and the Roadrunners offense should pick this team apart. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-07-23 | Oklahoma v. Texas -6 | 34-30 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 43 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Texas. So the Longhorns won the Red River Rivalry game in a 49-0 blowout last year. Some might say that this sets up a revenge spot here in this game. The Sooners are 5-0, however they have yet to face a ranked team. Texas won by double digits at #3 ranked Alabama in Week 2, and then last week they steamrolled #24 Kansas at home. Quinn Ewers has thrown for 1,358 yards, 10 TDs and 1 INT while playing a challenging schedule. I think it's asking too much of Oklahoma to compete in this game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-01-23 | Raiders v. Chargers -3.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 154 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on LAC. The 1-2 Chargers are a small home favorite against the 1-2 Raiders. Clearly the Chargers have a huge edge at QB with Justin Herbert versus Jimmy G. The Chargers have been more effective running the ball, and we should see Austin Ekeler back this week. Neither team has been great defensively but it's tough to see the Raiders keeping up in a shootout. LV was just 2-7 on the road last season, including a 24-19 loss at LA. Keep in mind the Raiders only win came by just 1-point against an 0-3 team that gave up 70 points last week. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-01-23 | Ravens v. Browns -140 | 28-3 | Loss | -140 | 151 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on CLE. The Browns are 2-1, and they probably should have beaten Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football in Week 2. The loss of Nick Chubb is going to hurt, but Kareem Hunt looked good in last week's win over Tennessee. He should play a bigger role moving forward. The defense has held opponents to just six points in two home games. Baltimore comes in with several key injuries on offense, and the Ravens lost 13-3 at Cleveland last December. We expect a similar outcome here in this game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-01-23 | Dolphins v. Bills -140 | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 151 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on BUF. The Dolphins scored 70 in a home win over Denver last Sunday, but that might set them up for a let down here on the road at Buffalo. Remember it was a game against Buffalo last season that when Tua took a hit that sent the team in a downward spiral for the rest of the season. That will give him something to think about. The Fish have lost six straight at Buffalo, and nine of their last 10 versus the Bills. Josh Allen threw for 304 yards and 4 TDs on 25-of-40 passing in a home win over Miami last year. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-30-23 | Washington v. Arizona OVER 68.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 143 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The Huskies are the #1 passing offense in the country, and they are averaging over 49 points per game. The Huskies beat Arizona by a score of 49-39 last year, and the total for that game was 71.5. A lower number here, but I don't see how Washington scores less than 50. Both these teams want to play fast and air it out, and another high score should be expected. Last week the Bears scored 32 against Washington, I think we can count on Arizona scoring 20-30 here at home. Looking at 55-24 Huskies ... GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-30-23 | Alabama v. Mississippi State UNDER 49 | 40-17 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. Alabama is coming off a dominant effort on defense, holding Ole Miss to just 10 points in a 24-10 home win. Nick Saban came in with a plan, and he executed with precision. He utilized the skill set of Jalen Milroe as a dual threat, as he ran the ball almost as much as he threw it. Overall Alabama ran 21 passing plays and 45 running plays. They head to Starkeville this week, and they beat the Bulldogs by a score of 30-6 last year. That was with Bryce Young at QB for Alabama, and Will Rogers in the Air Raid. The Bulldogs have abandoned the Air Raid, leaning more on their run game. These teams have gone under in five straight head to head meetings, and I expect that trend to continue here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-30-23 | South Carolina v. Tennessee -11.5 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 47 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TEN. This is a huge revenge game for the Vols after they got lit up for over 60 points in a loss to the Gamecocks last year. This is also a spot where we can buy low on the Vols, as people are still down on them after they lost at Florida, and it's a sell high spot on South Carolina after they played Georgia tough and Spencer Rattler completed 90% of his passes in a win over Mississippi State last week. Rattler has been playing well so far, but history tells us that when the going gets tough he can be "rattled". This looks like a tough spot for the Gamecocks, and we aren't going to be surprised if Rattler gets rattled. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-30-23 | South Florida v. Navy UNDER 53.5 | 44-30 | Loss | -110 | 136 h 43 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The new rules in college football season don't seem to have had a significant effect on totals for most teams, but the exception might be the likes of service academies and the likes of Iowa, Nebrasksa. This total sits at 53.5, and Navy has yet to play a game that has seen that much scoring. Early weather forecasts are calling for wind and rain in Anapolis on Saturday. Perfect conditions for a traditional ground and pound game with long slow drives that chew up the clock and result in a low scoring battle. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-24-23 | Panthers v. Seahawks -4.5 | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 143 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on SEA. This looks like a short line for a team playing on the road on a short week with a rookie QB. Geno Smith has plenty of weapons, and he threw for 328 yards and a pair of TDs on 32-of-41 passing in a road win at Detroit last week. Bryce Young hasn't impressed, throwing for as many INTs (2) as TDs so far. He's only averaging 4.2 yards per attempt, and he ranks 31st in the league in passing. I'll fade the rookie on the road here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-24-23 | Broncos v. Dolphins -6.5 | 20-70 | Win | 100 | 145 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MIA. A new coach, but the same old problems persist in Denver. The 0-2 Broncos have blown leads late in back to back home losses, and now they play their first road game at Miami. The Dolphins offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking #1 in the NFL in passing and #3 in scoring. I am not ready to buy into all the hype surrounding Tua and Miami, but asking them to beat a bad team by just a TD in their home opener seems like a bargain. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-24-23 | Colts +8 v. Ravens | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 139 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the Ravens. While the Colts rookie QB is questionable with a concussion (as of Tuesday), but there is an argument that they are better off with the more experienced Gardner Minshew running the offense. Minshew came in and threw for 171 yards and a TD on 19-of-23 passing in last week's loss to Houston The Ravens injury concerns might be more significant. Baltimore has already lost a pair of starters on the offensive line, and safety Marcus Williams and corner Marlon Humphrey are listed as out. The last time the Colts played at Baltimore they lost in overtime, covering as a 7.5 point underdog. The Colts are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-23-23 | Ohio State v. Notre Dame +3.5 | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on ND. This is a tough one, and I did go back and forth a bit. Neither of these two teams have faced anyone this season, so we have to look deeper than that. They played a close game at the beginning of last season, and here we have what looks like a downgrade at QB for Ohio State, and a massive upgrade for the Irish. I'll take the home dog plus the points here as a late add. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-23-23 | UCLA v. Utah -4.5 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 120 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Utah. The UCLA Bruins look like a pretty good team so far. We saw in Week Zero what happens when "pretty good teams" play at Rice Eccles. The Florida Gators lost 24-11 at Utah and everyone wrote them off. We saw last week in their win over Tennessee, that they aren't nearly as bad as people thought they might be. The Bruins have played three games at Utah since 2017, and they lost all three games by 20+ points. Utah is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and losing 42-32 at UCLA last year sets up a revenge spot. Cam Rising has missed the first three weeks recovering from a knee injury, but he's expected to start here in the PAC12 opener. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Alabama UNDER 57 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 111 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Under. The Crimson Tide have plenty of problems, but the defense isn't one one of them. Ole Miss comes in with a 3-0 record, but I think it's important have a closer look at those wins. Surely wins over Mercer and Georgia Tech can't be considered an indication that this team can upset Alabama. There is a double digit win over Tulane that you might think they can hang their hat on, but the Green Wave didn't have their starting QB in that game. The Rebels held a 27-20 lead with two minutes remaining in that game, however a comedy of errors saw them score 10 unanswered points in the final 1:53 seconds. I still think Alabama will win this game, but in order to do so they are going to need to slow the game down, play conservative, run the ball and lean on their defense. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-23-23 | Florida State -125 v. Clemson | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 115 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on FSU. The Seminoles may have been caught looking ahead last week in an alarming 31-29 win over Boston College. They face a far tougher test travelling to Death Valley to take on Clemson. The Tigers have home field advantage, but I am uncertain that will be enough to overcome the huge disparity at the quarterback position. Senior Jordan Travis has plenty of experience playing in and winning big games. Kade Klubnik has only stated five games for Clemson, and he was on the wrong side of blowout losses to Tennessee and Duke. The Seminoles have superior talent and more returning production on both sides of the ball. This to me appears to be a mismatch, and I expect Florida State to win decisively. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-21-23 | Georgia State +6.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on G-State. The Chanticleers won 41-24 at Georgia State last season, but a lot has changed since then. Grayson McCall is back at QB, but the offensive line lost some key starters and head coach Jamie Chadwell went to Liberty. The Panthers are 3-0, and senior QB Danny Grainger has completed over 70 percent of his passes for 803 yards, eight touchdowns and no picks. He threw for 198 yards and two touchdowns in a 42-40 win in his last start at Coastal Carolina in 2021. The home team has lost six straight meetings between these teams. This looks like another shootout that could go either way, and I'll gladly take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-18-23 | Browns -115 v. Steelers | Top | 22-26 | Loss | -115 | 187 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on CLE. Any decent bettor should know not to overreact to results in Week 1, and the Browns looked like World Beaters while the Steelers looked like trash. Sure we may see regression to the mean, but lets be real about who these teams are. The Browns have one of the highest ranked offensive lines, and maybe the most dominant running back in the NFL. Deshaun Watson is just a few years removed from being a Top 5 QB in the league, and he looked a lot more like that guy in Week 1 than he did last year. Kenny Pickett is still wet behind the ears, and I am not sure Najee Harris is a legit RB1. The Niners averaged 5.5 yards per carry at Pittsburgh last week, and the Steelers are going to have their hands full trying to contain Chubb. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-17-23 | Jets v. Cowboys UNDER 44.5 | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 137 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. So the Cowboys defense shut out the Giants in New York in Week 1, and the Jets made Josh Allen look like Ryan Leaf. With Zach Wilson taking over at QB for the Jets, we expect them to be quite conservative on offense. The Cowboys are looking to ride Tony Pollard and their defense, so we could see a low scoring defensive battle here in this one. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-17-23 | Giants -5.5 v. Cardinals | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NYG. The Giants were supposed to be trending in the right direction, but Daniel Jones got picked off twice and was sacked seven times in a 40-0 home loss to the Cowboys in Week 1. The Giants lost the turnover battle 3-0, and bad weather and bad breaks played a roll in the result. Arizona on the other hand actually looked competitive in a 20-16 loss to Washington. Josh Dobbs threw for 132 yards on 21-of-30 passing with no TDs and no INTs. Dobbs is not a QB1 in the league, unless of course your franchise is tanking (hint hint). I am giving the Giants a pass for their poor showing in Week 1, and we do expect them to bounce back here in Week 2. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-16-23 | TCU v. Houston UNDER 64.5 | 36-13 | Win | 100 | 104 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. We saw the total go over in TCU's Week 1 loss to Colorado, and we saw Houston play a defensive battle versus UTSA in Week 1. The 1st half under hit in the Horned Frogs season opener, and I think the rule changes are leading to lower scores across the board in the first half of games. The public is betting the over in this game, but keep in mind TCU lost OC Garrett Riley and Max Duggan. Donovan Smith hasn't looked particular good replacing Clayton Tune at QB for Houston. This number appears to be a wee bit inflated. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-16-23 | Syracuse v. Purdue UNDER 57.5 | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. The Orange have allowed just seven point in their first two games, but they face a far tougher test here at Purdue. Both these teams lean heavily on the run, which should result in a lot of clock killing drives. This number appears to be a bit inflated. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida UNDER 59 | Top | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 103 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 4* play on Under. Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. We saw the total go over in last year's game at Tennessee, the Vols winning 38-33. The rules aren't the only thing that has changed since then, as both teams have a downgrade at QB this season. So far we have seen both teams running the ball, and this game could see plenty of ground and pound. This number appears to be a bit inflated. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-16-23 | Minnesota v. North Carolina UNDER 50 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 97 h 51 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. We saw the total go under in both the Gophers first two games, allowing a combined 16 points in wins over Nebraska and Eastern Michigan. Tar Heels QB faces his toughest test yet, and he's struggled throwing for as many picks (2) as TDs (2). Minnesota will pound the rock, kill the clock and this game will be over before there is enough time to put up a combined 50 points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-10-23 | Dolphins v. Chargers -160 | 36-34 | Loss | -160 | 128 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LAC. So LA won 10 games last season despite Justin Herbert playing with broken ribs for almost the entire season. Herbert continued to be productive throwing for 47,390 yards and 25 TDs. It's even more impressive when you consider all the injuries to the receiving corps. Tua Tagovailoa is back at QB for the Dolphins, but his future is still very much in doubt. He appears to be one hit away from a career ending injury, and many believe he should have called it a career after his last concussion. He was limited to 145 yards and a TD on 10-of-28 passing in a 23-17 loss at LA last year. Starting the season on the road at LA is going to be no picnic for Tua and the Dolphins. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-10-23 | 49ers v. Steelers +3 | 30-7 | Loss | -125 | 36 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on PIT. The 49ers have question marks at the quarterback position. They played quarterback roulette last season, and when the wheel stopped spinning it was Brock Purdy who took over running the offense. Purdy played in nine games last year, throwing for 1,374 yards, 13 TDs and 4 INTs. Purdy has a tough matchup in Week 1 on the road at Pittsburgh. The Steelers were 9-7-1 last season, extending Mike Tomlin's NFL record to 16 consecutive seasons without a losing record. They were 8-2 in games that TJ Watt played, and they were 6-2-1 at home. It's easy to look at what San Francisco did last year and assume they are the better team. I think it would be a mistake to do so, as this is a new season and everybody starts with a clean slate. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-10-23 | Bengals v. Browns +2.5 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 1487 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLE. So the Bengals lost at Cleveland last year, which is nothing new. They have lost five straight at Cleveland, and the Browns are 8-2 straight up in the last 10 meetings. The bookmakers have the Bengals favored here, despite the fact that the underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. The Browns still have the #2 ranked offensive line in the NFL according to PFF, and their QB situation should be better in 2023. Joe Burrow was sacked five times in last years loss at Cleveland, throwing for 232 yards with two TDs and an INT. The offensive line is still a concern for Cincinnati, and this figures to be a difficult matchup. I think the wrong team is favored here and I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-09-23 | Texas v. Alabama UNDER 54.5 | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. Nick Saban's Crimson Tide have been the most dominant team in college football for over a decade, but the air of invincibility might be fading a little. Last year the Tide lost at Tennessee and LSU, and they really should have lost at Texas as well. Aided by a handful of blown calls by the officials, Alabama kicked a game winning field goal to win 20-19 in the final seconds. Texas returns nine starters on offense including QB Quinn Ewers. The Longhorns defense ranked 1st nationally in QB pressures last season, and they face Jalen Milroe who is making just his third start. His only start last year was a 24-20 home win over Texas A&M. Texas has the more experienced QB, and they should have the athletes on both sides of the ball to push Alabama to the brink just like they did last year. We should expect another low scorer here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-09-23 | Texas +7.5 v. Alabama | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 124 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Texas. Nick Saban's Crimson Tide have been the most dominant team in college football for over a decade, but the air of invincibility might be fading a little. Last year the Tide lost at Tennessee and LSU, and they really should have lost at Texas as well. Aided by a handful of blown calls by the officials, Alabama kicked a game winning field goal to win 20-19 in the final seconds. Texas returns nine starters on offense including QB Quinn Ewers. The Longhorns defense ranked 1st nationally in QB pressures last season, and they face Jalen Milroe who is making just his third start. His only start last year was a 24-20 home win over Texas A&M. Texas has the more experienced QB, and they should have the athletes on both sides of the ball to push Alabama to the brink just like they did last year. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-09-23 | Texas A&M v. Miami-FL UNDER 52 | 33-48 | Loss | -114 | 96 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. These teams played last season at College Station, and the Aggies won by a score of 17-9. With a new QB and Bobby Petrino coming in as offensive coordinator, Texas A&M might be a lot better on offense. Playing on the road at Miami doesn't figure to be a picnic though. The Canes were dominant in a win over Miami-Oh in Week 1. While the new rules regarding clock stoppages didn't really result in any clear under trend after the first week of college football, it did seem to effect some teams more than others. Neither of these two teams play particularly fast, so we could see a lot of time coming off the clock during extended drives. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-09-23 | Utah v. Baylor UNDER 47 | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 71 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. You don't want to overreact to Week 1 results. Utah won convincingly at home over the Florida Gators and Baylor got lit up in a 42-31 home loss to Texas State. Utah won without Cam Rising, and Bryson Barnes was solid throwing for 159 yards and a TD on 12-of-18 passing. Nate Johnson came in at QB and ran for 45 yards and a TD on six carries. Baylor struggled on defense last season, and it looks like that has carried over into 2023. The Bears were 0-5 versus Top 25 teams, and the average margin of victory in those games was 11 points. The Bears lost starting QB Blake Shapen in Week 1, and Sawyer Robertson threw for 113 yards and an INT on 6-of-12 passing against Texas State. With or without Cam Rising the Utes have mismatches all over the field. The total in the Utes Week 1 game against FLA got bet down to 43.5. Should expect another low score here as both teams likely using backup QBs. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-09-23 | Utah -5.5 v. Baylor | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 126 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 4* play on Utah. You don't want to overreact to Week 1 results. Utah won convincingly at home over the Florida Gators and Baylor got lit up in a 42-31 home loss to Texas State. Utah won without Cam Rising, and Bryson Barnes was solid throwing for 159 yards and a TD on 12-of-18 passing. Nate Johnson came in at QB and ran for 45 yards and a TD on six carries. Baylor struggled on defense last season, and it looks like that has carried over into 2023. The Bears were 0-5 versus Top 25 teams, and the average margin of victory in those games was 11 points. The Bears lost starting QB Blake Shapen in Week 1, and Sawyer Robertson threw for 113 yards and an INT on 6-of-12 passing against Texas State. With or without Cam Rising the Utes have mismatches all over the field. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-02-23 | Washington State v. Colorado State UNDER 55.5 | 50-24 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. Here we have a case where money is actually coming in on the over, and I think this presents an opportunity. The Cougars beat the Rams by a score of 38-7 last year, failing to reach the total of 51.5. Now we have a higher number, despite the fact that the Cougars lost their top four receivers, and their QB was sacked a PAC12 worst 46 times. Rams QB Clay Millen was sacked 53 times in just 10 games last year. These teams want to play fast and chuck it around the yard, but they can't do that if they can't keep their QB upright. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-02-23 | UTSA v. Houston UNDER 60 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 42 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. Here we have a case where money is actually coming in on the over, and I think this presents an opportunity. While most people remember that Houston won 37-35 in overtime at UTSA last year, perhaps they forgot that the two teams combined to score just 48 points in regulation. The Cougars will have a new quarterback who is more of a dual threat than his predecessor, and star wide receiver Tank Dell is gone. I'll roll the dice that both these teams won't have time to score 30 before the clock runs out. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-02-23 | Boise State v. Washington -14 | 19-56 | Win | 100 | 49 h 60 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on WASH. The Huskies had the top ranked offense in the PAC12 last year, averaging 515 yards per game. They bring back almost everybody including QB Michael Penix Jr. (@BigPenixEnergy) and a pair of receivers who had over 1000 yards last year. You might have heard that Boise State had the best pass defense in the country last year, but I am here to tell you that is all smoke and mirrors. They had an extremely soft schedule, and their biggest win in the Mountain West came against a Fresno State team that was without QB Jake Haener. The Broncos are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 versus the Pac-12, and they have failed to cover in five straight versus the Huskies. I like Washington to win by 3+ scores. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-02-23 | Colorado v. TCU UNDER 64 | 45-42 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. Here we have a case where money is actually coming in on the over, and I think this presents an opportunity. I understand that Colorado has a new offensive coordinator, who is famous for the "Flash Fast Offense", but can he get everyone on the same page in Week 1? Can the offensive line hold up? Or will they be punting back to TCU who also have a new offensive coordinator, and will the Horned Frogs lean on their running game as they did last year, rushing for 275 yards and four TDs on 30 carries in a 38-13 win at Colorado? GL, Jesse Schule |
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08-31-23 | Nebraska +7.5 v. Minnesota | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 1255 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NEB. I love the dog in this matchup, as I expect Matt Rhule to turn things around at Nebraska. Minnesota lost their leading rusher, starting QB and the heart and soul of their offensive line from last year, and P.J. Fleck has been making headlines for all the wrong reasons this summer. These two BIG10 rivals normally play close, low scoring games, and three of the last four meetings have been decided by one score. Casual fans aren't likely too excited about Jeff Sims transferring from GT to start at QB for the Huskers, but I think he has a chance to thrive in Matt Rhule's system. GL, Jesse Schule |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles UNDER 50 | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 321 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Under. Both the Conference Championship Games fell well short of the listed total, and there are plenty of signs we should expect a low score in the Super Bowl. The Eagles defense knocked out Brock Purdy early in the game, and held the 49ers to just seven points. Their offense was a run heavy attack, and we haven't seen much in the passing game since Jalen Hurts came back from a shoulder injury. The Chiefs defense sacked Joe Burrow five times, and picked him off twice. They held the Bengals to just 71 yards on the ground, and they rank 6th in the NFL in opponent rushing TDs. Patrick Mahomes was limited due to a high ankle sprain, and he might be less than 100 percent here even after two weeks. GL, Jesse Schule SBLVII Props include: Over 51.5 rush attempts, Over 1.5 4th down conversions, Kelce anytime TD. |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs +2 v. Eagles | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 160 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 4* play on KC. The public is definitely backing Philly in the Super Bowl, with 66% of the tickets on the Eagles. There is no doubt that they have been the better team in the post-season. Philly should be able to control the line of scrimmage with superior and offensive and defensive line play. The thing is, that with two weeks to prepare for this game, a Hall of Fame coach like Andy Reid should be able to game plan and scheme to minimize that advantage. There's something to be said for experience, and the Chiefs have been here before. Kansas City knows what to expect, how to handle the media and everything leading up to the game. I am going to take a contrarian approach and go with the more experienced team with the superior quarterback. GL, Jesse Schule SBLVII Props include: Over 51.5 rush attempts, Over 1.5 4th down conversions, Kelce anytime TD. |
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01-29-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 48 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 82 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. There is no doubt in my mind that Patrick Mahomes is going to play, but the question is how effective is he going to be. He wasn't too bad playing hurt last week, throwing for 195 yards and two TDs on 22-of-30 passing. He may not be able to extend plays with his legs, and that might result in a more conservative game plan from Andy Reid. This is a revenge spot for the Chiefs, after getting eliminated by the Bengals in a 27-24 OT home loss last January. There are a lot of trends pointing towards the under. The under is 26-10-3 in the Bengals last 39 road games, and the under is 12-3 in their last 15 games in January. These teams have gone under in five of the last six at Arrowhead. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-29-23 | 49ers v. Eagles UNDER 46 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 149 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under 45.5. The Niners have the #1 ranked defense in the NFL, and they completely shut down Dallas last week. They are trying to become the first team in history to send a rookie QB to the Super Bowl. Mr Irrelevant looked pretty pedestrian against an elite Dallas defense. He threw for 219 yards on 19-of-29 passing, with no TDs or picks. The last time these teams played, San Francisco won 17-11 it Philly is September of last season. The under is 15-5-1 in Eagles last 21 playoff games, and the under is 12-3-1 in Eagles last 16 playoff home games. This should be a defensive battle. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-29-23 | 49ers +130 v. Eagles | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -100 | 78 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SF. The Niners have the #1 ranked defense in the NFL, and they completely shut down Dallas last week. They are trying to become the first team in history to send a rookie QB to the Super Bowl. Mr Irrelevant looked pretty pedestrian against an elite Dallas defense. He threw for 219 yards on 19-of-29 passing, with no TDs or picks. While everyone is talking about the Niners rookie, the fact is that Jalen Hurts hasn't proved sh#t in big games. Remember it was Tua that walked off as a champion for Alabama, not Hurts. I'll take the best defense in football getting points in this spot all day. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-22-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers -190 | 12-19 | Win | 100 | 87 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on 49ers. Dak Prescott threw for 305 yards and four TDs in a win over Tampa in the Wild Card game, but he faces the 49ers #1 ranked defense here this week. The Cowvboys were eliminated by San Francisco in a 23-17 home loss in last year's playoffs. Dak threw for 254 yards with a TD and an INT on 23-of-43 passing and he was sacked five times. The game ended with Dak running the ball instead of passing as the clock expired. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff games, and the 49ers are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-22-23 | Bengals v. Bills -5.5 | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on BUF. The Bengals are coming off a home win over Baltimore, in a game that they were out-gained by 130 yards. The Ravens were on the goal line about to score a go-ahead TD, when the Bengals returned a fumble that would end up being the game winning score. The Bills also won a close game last week, failing to cover against the Dolphins. They actually out-gained Miami by almost 200 yards. Cincinnati has to be concerned about their banged up offensive line. They ranked 25th in the NFL in sacks allowed during the regular season, while Buffalo ranked in the Top 10 in QB sacks. The Bills are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-21-23 | Giants v. Eagles -7.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 107 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on PHI. The Giants were impressive in their upset win over the Vikings, but it's going to be a completely different matchup on the road in Philly this week. These teams played twice during the regular season, and Philly outscored New York 40-7 in the first half of those two games. Philly ran for 254 yards and four TDs in a 48-22 win at New York in December. The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five Divisional Playoffs games, and well rested I expect them to roll in the first half here against the Giants. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-21-23 | Jaguars v. Chiefs OVER 52 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. Despite five turnovers against the Chargers last week, the Jags scored 31 points and erased a 27-0 deficit. Trevor Lawrence threw for 288 yards and four TDs on 28-of-47 passing in the comeback. He has his work cut out for him if he wants to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City ranks 1st in the NFL in passing (298 yds per game) and #1 in scoring averaging over 29 points per game. Kansas City doesn't have much of a running game, so we should see both teams air it out here. The over is 8-3 in Jaguars last 11 road games, and the Chiefs have gone over in 10 of their last 13 in the month of January. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-16-23 | Cowboys v. Bucs UNDER 45.5 | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Under. I can't take a side here, there's no way I trust either of these quarterbacks. Tom Brady has looked his age lately, throwing six INTs in his last four meaningful games. We won't count a meaningless game against Atlanta in the season finale. Dak Prescott has thrown eight picks in his last five starts, and his last game was a complete disaster. He threw for just 128 yards on 14-of-37 passing with a TD and an INT in a 26-6 loss to Washington. These teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last seven head to head meetings. I expect both coaches to be quite conservative, especially in the first half. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-15-23 | Ravens v. Bengals -6.5 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 134 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Bengals. Money keeps coming in on the Bengals, and for good reason. We don't expect Lamar Jackson to play, and even if he does he would coming in without any game action in months and no time at practice. Anthony Brown threw for 286 yards and two INTs on 19-of-44 passing in last week's loss to the Bengals. The Ravens are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight versus the AFC North, and they have failed to cover in four straight versus the Bengals. The Bengals are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-15-23 | Giants v. Vikings -3 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 130 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MIN. The Vikings won 13 games this season, but they don't get a lot of respect from bookmakers. The Bills and the 49ers both won 13 games, and they are each double digits favorites in their Wild Card Games. Kirk Cousins threw for more yards than Joe Burrow and Josh Allen, but he continues to get no respect. The Giants won just three of their last 10 games, sneaking in the back door to make the playoffs. The favorite has covered in six of the last seven meetings, and the Giants have lost four straight to the Vikings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-14-23 | Chargers v. Jaguars OVER 47.5 | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 67 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. Trevor Lawrence threw for 262 yards and three TDs on 28-of-39 passing in a 38-10 win over the Chargers in LA in Week 3, but don't read too much into the fact that the Chargers were blown out in that game. Justin Herbert had broken ribs, and Keenan Allen didn't play. Despite all the injuries and dealing with adversity, Herbert still threw for almost 5,000 yards and 25 TDs this season. The Chargers boast the NFL's #3 ranked passing offense. Jacksonville won their final five games in the regular season, scoring an average of more than 29 points in those contests. The over is 6-1 in the last seven head to head meetings, and the Chargers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 versus Jacksonville. I expect both teams to score their share here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-09-23 | TCU v. Georgia -12.5 | 7-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on UGA. The Horned Frogs somehow beat Michigan despite giving up 45 points and over 500 total yards. They opened up an early lead and held on in the second half. This is the exception and not the norm for TCU, as they had to rally late to win several games in the BIG12 this year. I think it's going to be difficult to replicate what they did against Michigan. Georgia has been in a class of it's own for the last two years, and I just don't see this mediocre TCU defense slowing them down at all. Stetson Bennett threw for 398 yards and three TDs against Ohio State, and he should have another huge game here versus TCU. I like UGA to win this game 44-27. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-08-23 | Lions v. Packers -188 | 20-16 | Loss | -188 | 169 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on GB. The Packers have won four straight, putting them in position to make the playoffs with a win over the Lions at home in Week 18. This is a revenge spot for Green Bay after they lost 15-9 at Detroit earlier in the season. That score was a bit misleading, as Green Bay out-gained the Lions 389-254 in total yards. It was three turnovers that allowed the Lions to win that game. This is a tough matchup for Detroit, a dome team playing on the road at Lambeau against the NFL's #2 ranked pass defense. While the Lions pass happy offense matches up against the Packers strength, the Packers run heavy offense matches up against Detroit's 31st ranked rush defense (opponent rushing TDs). GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-08-23 | Rams v. Seahawks -163 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 165 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on SEA. The Seahawks host the Rams in a must win game in Week 18, and Geno Smith is coming off a big game against the Jets. Smith threw for 367 yards, three TDs and an INT on 28-of-39 passing in a win over the Rams earlier this season. The Rams are 1-6 on the road, and they have nothing to play for here in the final week of the season. Kenneth Walker ran for 133 yards on 22 carries against the Jets, and he could have another big game against a Rams defense that has allowed over 135 rushing yards per game in their last three overall. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-08-23 | Giants v. Eagles -145 | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 165 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on PHI. |
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01-08-23 | Browns v. Steelers -145 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 97 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on PIT. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in his tenure in Pittsburgh, and a win over the Browns in the season finale will keep that streak alive. The Cleveland Browns have a chance to play spoiler, but they have already been eliminated from post-season contention. While they might think they want to get up for this game, it's likely that a few nasty hits from TJ Watt and company will curb their enthusiasm. In light of recent events, it's hard to imagine teams risking injury in meaningless games at the end of the season. The Steelers still have something to play for, and that should make all the difference. The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Pittsburgh. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-07-23 | Titans v. Jaguars -6 | 16-20 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Jags . With Josh Dobbs starting at QB for the Titans, I think they are in big trouble here in the AFC South Title Game. The Jags are on a roll, coming off four consecutive wins. The streak started with a 36-22 win at Tennessee. Trevor Lawrence threw for 368 yards and three TDs on 30-of-42 passing in the victory. He will face a Titans defense that ranks 31st in the NFL in passing TDs allowed. Josh Dobbs faces a Jags defense that has allowed just six points in the last two weeks. Asking Derrick Henry to carry the load hasn't been an effective strategy lately, and at the end of the year that kind of workload takes it's toll (remember last year). GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-02-23 | Utah v. Penn State OVER 52.5 | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. Both these teams should be geared up to play in the Rose Bowl. There aren't a lot of opt outs to worry about here, but both teams will be without their top corners. Cam Rising threw for 310 yards and three TDs on 22-of-34 passing in the PAC12 Championship game, beating USC 47-24. Penn State has scored at least 30 points in six straight games, and the over is 12-5 in the Nittany Lions last 17 non-conference games. They have also gone over in four of their last five versus PAC12 teams. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-01-23 | Rams v. Chargers -6.5 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 73 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on LA Chargers. The Rams scored 51 points in a blowout win over the Broncos last week. Baker Mayfield threw for 238 yards and a pair of TDs on 24-of-28 passing. That's great, but they ain't playing the Broncos this week. This looks like a huge let down spot on the road at LA. Only one of these teams is going to the playoffs, and it ain't the Rams. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win, and they are 1-5 on the road this season. This should be a reality check for the Rams. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-01-23 | Dolphins v. Patriots -140 | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 121 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NE. The Patriots have lost four of their last five overall, but a home game against the Dolphins looks like a favorable spot for Bill Belichick and company. The Dolphins are expecting to be without their starting QB, and they haven't won a game without him yet this season. Teddy Bridgewater has thrown for 522 yards, three TDs and three INTs in two games as a starter. He might not have the luxury of relying on the running game, as New England has allowed the fewest rushing TDs in the NFL this season. The Dolphins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings in New England. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-01-23 | Colts v. Giants -160 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 138 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on NYG. The Indianapolis Colts rank 27th in the NFL in rushing TDs allowed, and they play on the road in New York Sunday. It's a must win game for the Giants, and we are sure to see plenty of Saquon Barkley. Nick Foles was definitely not the answer for the Colts, throwing for 143 yards and three INTs in a loss to the Chargers last week. The Colts are playing on a short week, and they have nothing to play for. The Giants lost at Minnesota last week, and they are 6-0 ATS in their last six coming off a loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-31-22 | Ohio State v. Georgia -6.5 | Top | 41-42 | Loss | -110 | 375 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UGA. I am sure the Buckeyes can play better than they did against Michigan, but I am not sure that it's going to be good enough to hang with the Georgia Bulldogs. We've seen that C.J. Stroud has a high upside, but he often buckles under pressure, makes mistakes in big games. Stetson Bennett is an experienced veteran with a steady hand, who really doesn't have to do anything fancy. He played his best football in last year's playoffs, beating Michigan and Alabama. The Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 bowl games. They have the edge in the trenches and the championship pedigree. This line is currently less than a TD, and I think it should probably be closer to double digits. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-31-22 | TCU v. Michigan -7.5 | 51-45 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on MICH. Most people's analysis of TCU this season doesn't  seem to account for how exactly they won a lot of their games. In their win over Oklahoma, Sooners QB Dylan Gabriel was knocked out in the 2nd quarter. They trailed by double digits at halftime versus Kansas State, and the Wildcats had both their 1st and 2nd string QBs knocked out of that game. A close win over Kansas came against their second string QB, and they rallied from behind to win by a single point on a walkoff FG at Baylor. This MIchigan team is bigger, stronger, faster than all those previously mentioned, and I like the Wolverines to take the Horned Frogs behind the wood shed in the first half. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-30-22 | South Carolina v. Notre Dame -160 | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Notre Dame. So the Gamecocks made a lot of noise at the end of the season, but I think it would be a mistake to fall victim to recency bias. Spencer Rattler threw for 438 yards and six TDs on 30-of-37 passing in a blowout win over Tennessee, and that is what everyone is going to remember. The fact is that if you take away that game, he threw for 2,342 yards 10 TDs and 11 INTs in the other 11 games he played. The Gamecocks ranked 13th in the SEC in rushing defense, allowing over 192 yards per game. The Irish are not the ideal opponent for South Carolina, with a run heavy offense and a solid defense. According to reports, South Carolina could have as many as 22 players opting out, injured or in the transfer portal. That includes their top two rushers and the majority of their top receivers. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-29-22 | Washington +3.5 v. Texas | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 64 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Washington. The Huskies finished the season on a six game win streak, and they were the #1 passing offense in the country averaging 377 passing yards per game. QB Michael Penix is coming back for another year, and he's all fired up to play in his first bowl game. While Texas will be missing their best player (RB Bijan Robinson), and a long list of starters opting out or hitting the transfer portal, we expect almost everybody to play for the Huskies. With eight defensive players either opting out or transferring, the Texas defense will not be at full strength. The total for this game has been bet up to 67.5 and might get higher before game time, I do expect a high score. I think there is better value backing the Huskies. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-28-22 | North Carolina v. Oregon -13 | 27-28 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Oregon. Both teams have plenty of players opting out, but I think that leaves Oregon with a huge edge in talent. Drake Maye is going to be hard pressed to keep up with an offensive juggernaut like Oregon without his top target Josh Downs. The UNC defense couldn't stop anybody this year, and they are going to be thin with a handful of players in the transfer portal. We are expecting the majority of Oregon's top WRs and RBs to play alongside Bo Bix, and they should march up and down the field tonight against this sad sacked Tar Heels defense. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-27-22 | Oklahoma State v. Wisconsin -160 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a free play on the Badgers. |
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12-26-22 | Chargers -180 v. Colts | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 174 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LAC. The Chargers have won three of their last four games, and they are as healthy as they have been all year. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams have been banged up all year, but they are finally at full strength. Justin Herbert has still managed to throw for over 4,000 yards despite all the injuries. He could be in for a big game against a Colts defense that gave up 36 points in the second half in Minnesota last week. Blowing a 33-0 lead is a new low for Indy, and those type of losses are hard to come back from. History favors the Chargers, who are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and they have covered in four of their last five at Indianapolis. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-25-22 | Bucs -7.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 88 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on Tampa. As bad as things appear to be in Tampa Bay, the Bucs are still the favorite to win the NFC South. This team still has plenty to play for, while it looks like the Arizona Cardinals will be waiving a white flag here this week. Arizona officially eliminated from the post-season, and down to their third string QB. Trace McSorley has thrown for 166 yards and three INTs on just over 50 percent passing in limited action this year. Given the QB situation, it's hard to see the rest of the team being too invested in this meaningless game. Expecting the Cardinals offense to struggle to move the chains, that should lead to more possessions for Brady and company. Despite the loss, Brady threw for 312 yards and three TDs last week. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-25-22 | Packers v. Dolphins -4.5 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -110 | 143 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 2* play on MIA. |
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12-24-22 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 47 | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Over. The line has moved significantly due to the injury to Jalen Hurts. I am not convinced that the Eagles are much worse off with Minshew Mania at the helm. Gardner Minshew has completed over 63 percent of his passes for 41 TDs and a dozen INTs in his NFL career. Most of his playing time came with the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. Now he steps in behind an elite offensive line, on the best team in the NFL. There is every reason to expect him to be successful, as least moving the ball and putting points on the scoreboard. These teams have gone over in four straight, and three straight in Dallas. The total came down several points after the news that Hurts wouldn't play, and I still expect the Eagles to score enough to get the total over the number. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-24-22 | Saints v. Browns -150 | 17-10 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Cleveland. The Browns host the Saints on X-Mas Eve, and Cleveland has won three of their last four games. The Saints have lost five straight on the road, and you have to question how motivated they will be to play in poor weather in Cleveland. Nick Chubb has run for over 700 yards and nine TDs in eight games in Cleveland this season. Kareem Hunt gives the Browns one of the best second string running backs in the NFL, and they perfectly suited to play in cold weather in a winter storm in Cleveland. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-24-22 | Giants v. Vikings OVER 49 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on over. The Vikings defense has given up 70 points in their last two games. Last week they trailed the Colts 33-0 at halftime, and came all the way back to win 39-36. They have now gone over the total in six of their last seven home games, and it would be no surprise to see another high score here against the Giants. The Vikings have allowed an average of 28 points in their last seven home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-22-22 | Jaguars v. Jets | 19-3 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on NYJ. So the Jets lost at home to the Lions last week, but it wasn't Zach Wilson's fault. He threw for 317 yards, 2 TDs and an INT on 18-of-35 passing. He doesn't play defense, so you can't blame him for the 51 yard game winning TD Detroit scored with under two minutes to play. The Jets host Jacksonville on Thursday, and this looks like one helluva let down spot for the Jags. They rallied back from a 14-point halftime deficit to force overtime against the Cowboys, going on to win the game on an INT return. The Jaguars are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Jets are 6-0 ATS when coming off an ATS loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-18-22 | Titans v. Chargers -150 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 99 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LAC. The Chargers have had their fair share of disappointment this season, but it doesn't seem like their injury woes have been properly accounted for. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are finally healthy, and they lit it up against the Dolphins last week. Herbert threw for 367 yards and a TD on 39-of-51 passing versus Miami. The Titans have been playing over their heads in my opinion, so it was no surprise to see them lose their last three games. The Titans are 1-8-2 ATS in the last 11 head to head meetings, and they have failed to cover in six of their last seven at LA. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-18-22 | Steelers v. Panthers -150 | 24-16 | Loss | -150 | 45 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on CAR. The Panthers control their own destiny. They can win the division if they run the table and beat the Bucs on January 1st. This is a different team than the one that started the season losing five of their first six games. They fired their coach, traded their superstar running back, and cut their starting QB. It looks like addition by subtraction, as they have won three of their last four games. During that run they have been pounding the rock, running twice as often as they have been passing. The Steelers gave up 215 yards on the ground in a loss to Baltimore last week, and Mitch Trubisky threw for 276 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs on 22-of-30 passing. Trubisky is not their first choice, but he's their only choice with Kenny Pickett out due to injury. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-18-22 | Lions v. Jets +105 | 20-17 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on the Jets. The Jets were a three-point favorite until it was announced that Zach Wilson would get the start. Admittedly I like Mike White a lot better, but lets be real about Wilson. As bad as he looked at times, the Jets are 5-2 in games he's played. This looks like a tough spot for the Lions, a dome team on the road in bad weather. The Lions are starting to like their own smell after winning five of their last six. During that run they beat one team with a winning record, and that was last week's home win over the Vikings. The same Vikings that were losing 33-0 to Indy on Saturday. I'll take the Jets as the home dog. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills -7 | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Buffalo. This is a revenge game for Buffalo, as they lost 21-19 in Miami earlier this season. The Bills had the edge in total yards 497-212, but managed to make enough mistakes to lose the game. On a snowy day in Buffalo, it's worth pointing out that revenge is a dish best served cold. The Dolphins are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Buffalo, and the Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in December. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-17-22 | Fresno State -165 v. Washington State | 29-6 | Win | 100 | 59 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Fresno State. The Cougars aren't going to have all hands on deck for their bowl game, missing several key starters on both sides of the ball. Their pass defense was pretty ugly at the end of the year, giving up 485 yards in the air in their season finale versus the Huskies. Jake Haener only played nine games this year due to injury, and he still threw for 2,616 yards, 18 TDs and just 3 INTs. The Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last five Bowl games, while the Bulldogs have covered in six of their last eight versus the PAC12. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-16-22 | Troy v. UTSA OVER 54 | 18-12 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 48 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Over. The Roadrunners and the Trojans each finished as Conference Champions, and they both come into their bowl game as winners of 10 straight games. Troy has done it with a Top 10 ranked defense, while UTSA has been an offensive juggernaut. UTSA has scored an average of 41 points per game over it's last 10, while Troy has scored over 100 points in their final two games of the regular season. Troy's defensive stats might be misleading, a product of the opposition they faced. When they played Western Kentyucky and Appalachian State, both of those games saw 60+ points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-15-22 | 49ers -170 v. Seahawks | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 62 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on SF. The 49ERS will look to clinch the NFC West with a win in Seattle on Thursday. They have won back to back games since Jimmy G went down, scoring 68 points in those contests. SF has plenty of weapons, but without Deebo Samuel they might lean a little more on Christian McCaffrey. He faces a Seattle defense that ranks 30th in the NFL in rushing touchdowns allowed. McCaffrey scored a pair of TDs last week, and if you exclude his 49ers debut where he only played a limited role, he's found the endzone six times in six games since arriving in San Francisco. The 49ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games, and they are 6-0 in their last six versus the NFC West. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-11-22 | Dolphins v. Chargers +3.5 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LAC. The Chargers have been great as an underdog, they have consistently shown that they can battle back to stay in games and keep it close even when they lose. Justin Herbert is 4th in the NFL in passing despite his top WR only playing five games, his #2 WR missing four games, and playing through a series rib injury. Their offense comes into tonight's game as healthy as it has been all year, and they line up against a Dolphins team that might be still reeling after getting run over by San Francisco. The Dolphins are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss, and they have failed to cover in four of their last five road games. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-11-22 | Bucs v. 49ers -180 | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 106 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on SF. So Jimmy G got hurt and the line for this game dropped in half. At the end of the day he was just a game manager, and the 49ers are fully equipped to win games with a rookie at QB. Last week it was Brock Purdy for almost the entire game, and San Francisco beat the pants off of a very good Miami team. Purdy threw for 210 yards, 2 TDs and an INT on 25-of-37 passing. The Bucs needed two TDs in the final three minutes to come from behind and beat the Saints 17-16 last week, they aren't likely to get so lucky here in San Francisco. GL, Jesse Schule |
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