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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-04-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks -5 | Top | 16-36 | Win | 100 | 226 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks. |
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09-01-14 | Miami (Florida) +3.5 v. Louisville | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 0 m | Show |
This is a play on the Miami Hurricanes. "He's protected the ball really well, he can articulate the offense, he's very poised. At the end of the day, as I told him, he's our quarterback. He's not a freshman quarterback, he's the University of Miami quarterback." Miami linebacker Denzel Perryman said: "I can't rattle him for nothing." "I think nobody can" |
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08-31-14 | SMU v. Baylor UNDER 75 | Top | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SMU@BAY to go UNDER the total. Jesse Schule |
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08-31-14 | Utah State v. Tennessee OVER 51 | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on USU@TENN to go OVER the total. Jesse Schule |
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08-30-14 | Oklahoma State v. Florida State UNDER 63 | Top | 31-37 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
This is 10* play on FSU@OKST to go UNDER the total. |
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08-30-14 | Clemson v. Georgia OVER 54 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play CLEM@UGA to go OVER the total. |
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08-30-14 | Clemson v. Georgia -7.5 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Georgia Bulldogs. |
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08-30-14 | Arkansas +21.5 v. Auburn | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -100 | 679 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Arkansas Razorbacks. |
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08-30-14 | Ohio State v. Navy OVER 53 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OSU@NAVY to go OVER the total (10*)Â |
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08-30-14 | Penn State +2.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Penn State Nittany Lions. The money has been coming in on Central Florida, and I can only assume that the thinking is that the Knights have several starters returning on both sides of the ball. The two players that they won't have returning, are starting quarterback Blake Bortles and running back Storm Johnson. The Knights upset Penn State at Happy Valley last year, but it was a close game (34-31), and Bortles and Johnson accounted for all four of their TDs in that game. The win also ended a six game losing skid against Big Ten opponents. Critics will point out that Penn State will have to adapt to a new head coach, but when you consider what James Franklyn was able to acheive at Vanderbilt, I would look at that as more of positive than a negative. Christian Hackenberg returns at quarterback, and he'll be joined by star running back Zack Zwinak. The offensive line is predicted to be a bit of a weak spot for the Nittany Lions, but I'm banking on Franklyn to find a way to make due with the talent he has to work with. Take PSU GL, Jesse Schule |
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08-28-14 | Rutgers v. Washington State -9 | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -110 | 630 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Washington State Cougars. Jesse Schule |
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08-28-14 | Ole Miss v. Boise State OVER 52.5 | Top | 35-13 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MISS@BSU to go OVER the total. Jesse Schule |
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08-28-14 | Texas A&M v. South Carolina UNDER 58 | Top | 52-28 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TAM@SOCAR to go UNDER the total. |
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02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Denver Broncos UNDER 48 | Top | 43-8 | Loss | -110 | 293 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SEA@DEN to go UNDER the total.
One week before Super Bowl XLVIII, the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils played an outdoor game at Yankees Stadium. Here is what Marty Brodeur had to say about the weather conditions: "When you went on it was worse and worse. It was tough," Brodeur said. "It was so cold out there." The Weather reports vary from day to day, and while some are optimistic that it won't be as bad as many had feared, it seems clear that conditions will be less than ideal. The game has been hyped as the Bronco's and their high flyin' offense, versus Seattle's #1 ranked defense. I think that Denver isn't getting enough respect for their own solid play defensively. The Broncos have been particularly tough against the run, limiting San Diego and New England to a combined 129 yards. Denver has now played five straight low scoring games, with the total falling below the number. Offensively, we've seen Denver leaning on it's power running game, with long, clock killing drives. In fact in second quarter of the AFC Championship Game, we saw the Broncos set a record for their longest drive of the season, chewing up roughly seven minutes off the clock. In the third quarter they broke that record with another drive of more than seven minutes. Seattle's defense is likely going to prove to be a little tougher than San Diego and New England, so we could see Denver's punter get a little more time in the spotlight. The Seahawks have been very successful handing the ball off to Marshawn Lynch, who has 249 yards and three touchdowns in the post-season so far. They should continue to feed the beast. Both teams should burn a lot of time off the clock with each possession, and I'm expecting this to be a low scoring affair. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks -165 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 169 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks pitched a shutout through three quarters against the Saints last week, holding New Orleans scoreless until Khiry Robinson found the endzone on a one yard run at 13:11 of the fourth quarter. Marshawn Lynch gave them all the offense that they needed, running for 140 yards and two touchdowns on 28 carries. The 49ers were unable to contain Lynch back in September, when he ran for 98 yards and two scores, helping Seattle cruise to a 29-3 victory. The margin of victory was even greater for Seattle when the 49ers came to town last season, losing by a score of 42-13. Frank Gore has been held below 100 yards in five straight games, and the 30 year old might be a little worn down after a long season. He's not going to find a lot of running room in Seattle, where he gained just 16 yards on nine carries in his last visit. I believe Seattle's greatest advantage in this game is at the quarterback position. Colin Kaepernick has been terrorized by this Seahawks defense in past meetings, and he was just 13-of-28 for 127 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions in the loss at Seattle earlier this year. Russell Wilson continues to show the poise of a seasoned veteran, taking what a defense will give him, and rarely making mistakes. He's thrown five touchdown passes and been picked off just twice in two previous home games versus the Niners. Take SEA. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-19-14 | New England Patriots v. Denver Broncos UNDER 55 | Top | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 157 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NE@DEN to go UNDER the total.
Denver's win versus San Diego last weekend avenged their only home loss this season. They didn't exactly light up the scoreboard as we have seen them do so often this season, but perhaps the most impressive statistic is that the Broncos punter never stepped on the field. Their offense steadily engineered long clock killing drives, with a power running game featuring Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball. When called upon, Peyton was razor sharp. The Patriots have their own power running game, and LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley combined to score six rushing touchdowns against the Colts. Running on the Broncos figures to be a little tougher though, as Denver's defense has been far stronger against the run. San Diego gained only 65 yards on the ground last week, and that marked the third straight game that Denver held it's opponent to fewer than 100 yards rushing. They have also seen the total fall below the number in each of their last four games. A lot has been made of the matchup between Brady and Manning, and the fact that Brady has won 10-of-14 previous meetings. I don't put much stock in that stat, this is a new game, and Peyton has the advantage of playing at home in Denver. The Pats defense ranks last in the league against the run, allowing an average of 134 rushing yards per game. They aren't that much better against the pass, and Andrew Luck threw for 331 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week. Denver terrorized Phillip Rivers last week, sacking him four times, and forcing him to get rid of the ball early on numerous occasions. Brady could be spending a lot of time pulling his butt off the turf, as New England's pass protection leaves a lot to be desired. Brady was sacked exactly twice as many times as Manning during the season (40). Belichick and Brady have defied all odds by getting this injury riddled team, with a depleted receiving corps all the way to the AFC Championship game, but I expect the injuries to take their toll here in Denver, and the Pats should come up short. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-19-14 | New England Patriots v. Denver Broncos -4 | Top | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 89 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on the Denver Broncos (First Half)
Denver's win versus San Diego last weekend avenged their only home loss this season. They didn't exactly light up the scoreboard as we have seen them do so often this season, but perhaps the most impressive statistic is that the Broncos punter never stepped on the field. Their offense steadily engineered long clock killing drives, with a power running game featuring Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball. When called upon, Peyton was razor sharp. The Patriots have their own power running game, and LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley combined to score six rushing touchdowns against the Colts. Running on the Broncos figures to be a little tougher though, as Denver's defense has been far stronger against the run. San Diego gained only 65 yards on the ground last week, and that marked the third straight game that Denver held it's opponent to fewer than 100 yards rushing. A lot has been made of the matchup between Brady and Manning, and the fact that Brady has won 10-of-14 previous meetings. I don't put much stock in that stat, this is a new game, and Peyton has the advantage of playing at home in Denver. The Pats defense ranks last in the league against the run, allowing an average of 134 rushing yards per game. They aren't that much better against the pass, and Andrew Luck threw for 331 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week. Denver terrorized Phillip Rivers last week, sacking him four times, and forcing him to get rid of the ball early on numerous occasions. Brady could be spending a lot of time pulling his butt off the turf, as New England's pass protection leaves a lot to be desired. Brady was sacked exactly twice as many times as Manning during the season (40). Belichick and Brady have defied all odds by getting this injury riddled team, with a depleted receiving corps all the way to the AFC Championship game, but I expect the injuries to take their toll here in Denver, and the Pats should come up short. Take DEN - First Half ML. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-12-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Denver Broncos UNDER 56 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 155 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SD@DEN to go UNDER the total.
The San Diego Chargers are the "Giant Killers", as they have now beat the Chiefs in Kansas City, the Eagles in Philly, The Bengals in Cincy.. and of course they beat the Broncos in Denver just last month. That was then, and this is now. If you look at their win in Cincinnati, the Chargers went into that game with a very conservative game plan. It was more of a case of the Bengals beating themselves, with four turnovers. The Chargers played well defensively, terrorizing Andy Dalton, but come on .. he's no Peyton Manning. Last week's battle with the Bengals took it's toll on San Diego, as Ryan Mathews left the game with an ankle injury, and they also lost their starting center. Remember that Denver actually did beat the Chargers in San Diego back in back in November by a score of 28-20. This Broncos defense has been good against the run all year long, and coming off a week of rest should benefit the Broncos tremendously. Now that you mention it, the last time the Broncos played after a bye week was their victory in San Diego earlier in the year. These teams failed to reach 50 points in both previous meetings, yet the total for Sunday's game is in the mid 50s. Denver has played three straight unders, while the Chargers haven't seen a total reach 50 in any of their last six games. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-12-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Denver Broncos -9 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Denver (1st Half)
The San Diego Chargers are the "Giant Killers", as they have now beat the Chiefs in Kansas City, the Eagles in Philly, The Bengals in Cincy.. and of course they beat the Broncos in Denver just last month. That was then, and this is now. If you look at their win in Cincinnati, the Chargers went into that game with a very conservative game plan. It was more of a case of the Bengals beating themselves, with four turnovers. The Chargers played well defensively, terrorizing Andy Dalton, but come on .. he's no Peyton Manning. Last week's battle with the Bengals took it's toll on San Diego, as Ryan Mathews left the game with an ankle injury, and they also lost their starting center. Remember that Denver actually did beat the Chargers in San Diego back in November by a score of 28-20. This Broncos defense has been good against the run all year long, and coming off a week of rest should benefit the Broncos tremendously. Now that you mention it, the last time the Broncos played after a bye week was their victory in San Diego earlier in the year. Take the Denver 1ST Half. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-12-14 | San Francisco 49ers -130 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 150 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the San Francisco 49ers.
The Niners appear to be peaking at the right time, as they wrapped up the season with six straight wins, and then went into Green Bay and beat the Packers in freezing cold weather last week. The final score of 23-20 is a little deceiving, as the game really wasn't as close as the score indicates. San Francisco out-gained the packers 381-281 in total yards, and it was an interception by Colin Kaepernick and a few miraculous plays by Aaron Rogers that allowed the Packers to keep it close. The Defense got the job done, holding Rogers to just 177 yards and a touchdown, and sacking him four times. Cam Newton will have his work cut out for him, especially if Carolina's running game stalls against the NFL's 4th best run defense. The Panthers upset the 49ers in San Francisco earlier this season, but they needed a perfect set of circumstances to sneak away with a one-point victory. They also didn't have to worry about Michael Crabtree, who had 13 receptions for 125 yards in the snow in Green Bay last week. Cam Newton did not have a good game when the Panthers visited San Francisco earlier this season, completing just 16-of-32 passes for 169 yards, with no touchdowns and an INT. Newton failed to throw for 200 yards in three of his last four starts, and he was picked off four times in his last five starts. Ultimately I think what this game will come down to, from a 49ers perspective: "we can do anything they can do, only better." Both teams have a dual threat quarterback, a strong running game and an elite defense, but San Francisco has more weapons, and a superior coaching staff (never underestimate coaching). Take the NINERS. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-11-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots UNDER 53.5 | Top | 22-43 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on IND@NE to go UNDER the total.
The Colts did it again last week, coming back from another huge deficit (28 points), this time stunning the Chiefs. We've seen this before from Indianapolis, with big comeback wins in Houston and Tennessee previously this season. While Andrew Luck and the Colts have proved that they have what it takes to engineer a comeback, perhaps more telling is that they have so frequently found themselves trailing at halftime. This defense has struggled, and hasn't had much success stopping the run, allowing opponents an average of over 125 yards rushing per game (26th in the NFL). With weather in New England expected to be a factor (calling for rain and wind), this game could turn into a war of attrition. The Colts simply do not possess the defense or the running game to compete in such a contest. New England was 8-0 at home this year, and I just don't see Andrew Luck getting the better of Tom Brady here at Foxboro in the playoffs. Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare a game plan for the Colts, and if you ask me, he's still the grandmaster of NFL coaches. You have to give Belichick and Brady a lot of credit for holding this team together during a trying season, and you can rest assured that they will have a solid strategy for defeating the Colts. The Colts have seen the total go under in each of their last six playoff games on the road, and I expect to see that trend continue Sunday. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-11-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks UNDER 48 | Top | 15-23 | Win | 100 | 129 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NO@SEA to go UNDER the total. The Saints were able to sneak away with a victory on a late field goal in Philadelphia, but they are in for a far tougher test against Seattle and their legendary 12th man. Seattle's #1 ranked pass defense is going to be a tough nut to crack for Drew Brees and company. After winning 14 in a row at home at home over the past two seasons, the Seahawks lost to Arizona just two weeks ago. Carson Palmer made the big play to put the Cards ahead late, but overall he was terrorized by the Seahawk secondary, completing just 13-of-25 for 178 yards, with one TD and four INTs. The Saints lost in Seattle in December by a score of 34-7, and they lost previously two years earlier, also in Seattle. The Saints proved they can win on the road last week, but this is still a dome team that isn't the same outside the Superdome. In the last meeting, Seattle held Brees to just 147 yards and a touchdown, and given two weeks to rest up and prepare, expect to see a very similar storyline here in this playoff game. Take the UNDER GL, Jesse Schule
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01-06-14 | Auburn v. Florida State -7.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 693 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Florida State Seminoles.
I didn't just win with Alabama in last year's BCS game, I swept the board with plays on the side, total and first half. I see a lot of similarities in the two teams that will battle for the National Championship this year. Here is what I said prior to last season's game: "We have all heard of "The Luck Of The Irish".. well Notre Dame certainly needed a lot of luck to finish this season with an undefeated record. The Irish were fortunate to defeat Stanford at home after the Cardinal appeared to have scored the go-ahead touchdown in overtime. Officials ruled that despite the fact that Stepfan Taylor reached the ball across the goal line before his knee was down, the play had been blown dead. Notre Dame went on to win by a score of 20-13. The following week they found themselves trailing in the fourth quarter to BYU, but again luck was on their side, and they scored late to win 17-14. Two weeks later, it looked like their luck had run out as they went into the fourth quarter trailing Pittsburgh by 14 points. They rallied to force overtime, eventually winning in the extra period by a score of 29-26. Now I can't tell you that the Irish don't deserve to be here, or that they just got lucky. After all, they do have the #1 ranked defense in the country allowing just over 10 points per game. It's probably appropriate to say "you gotta be good to get lucky". Now Alabama is good, in fact they are so good, they don't need to get lucky. They own the #2 defense in the nation, just behind the Irish, but when you consider strength of schedule, you could say that Bama is the better team defensively. When it comes to offense, there is no question, Alabama is the better team hands down! Led by quarterback A.J. McCarron, who completed 66% of his passes for 2669 yards and 26 touchdowns with just three interceptions. McCarron's biggest asset is that he just doesn't make mistakes, and that will be important against a strong defense like Notre Dame's." This time around, it's Auburn that needed a hail mary pass in the final minute against Georgia to come from behind and win at home. Then a week later they were the beneficiary of a comedy of errors by Alabama's special teams unit. The Tide missed all three field goal attempts in that game, and it was a missed field goal returned for a 109 yard touchdown that won the game on the final play for the Tigers. Florida State didn't need any luck to get here, they annihilated the opposition, out-scoring opponents 280-34 in their final five games. It's not like they have been padding their stats against weak teams either, beating then #3 Clemson on the road 51-14, #7 Miami 41-14 at home, and Florida 37-7 in Gainesville. I expect to see the Seminoles steamroll Auburn here, much like Alabama did to Notre Dame last year. Take FSU. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-06-14 | Auburn v. Florida State UNDER 68 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 66 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on FSU@AUB to go UNDER the total. Last year I played the over in the first half of the BCS game between Alabama and Notre Dame. I had this to say: "With the #1 & #2 defenses facing off against each other, this is expected to be a low scoring game with the total hovering around 40. Alabama has only played one game all season with fewer than 40 points scored, and that was a 35-0 shutout of Western Kentucky. I think it's a little naive to think the Notre Dame's defense is going to stop Alabama from scoring, keep in mind this is the same team that piled on 41 points against Michigan in their season opener, and the fewest points they scored all year was a total of 21, in a victory over LSU in the swamp." I will use similar logic here this time around, only this time it is a play on two high scoring offenses, that are being asked to reach an astronomical total. The public loves betting overs, and it's tough to blame them, as it is exciting watching teams put points on the board. Let's not forget that FSU actually has more impressive stats defensively than they do offensively. The Auburn offense relies heavily on a running game that will be up against the Noles defense that allowed an average of just 3.1 yards per carry this season. While FSU scored a lot of points, they were not quite as prolific when up against quality opponents like Florida, Miami and Duke, as none of those games combined for 60 points. We saw the total open at a very high number, in the mid 60s, an public money has driven that up 3-4 points. This creates quite some value on a play against the money. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
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01-05-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 46 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SF@GB to go UNDER the total.
The are saying it could be the coldest game in the history of the NFL, but if you thought that favored the home team, you could be interested to learn that the Packers have lost more home playoff games than they have won the past decade. While the weather may not help the Packers, it could prevent both these teams from having big days offensively Aaron Rodgers made the big play when he needed to last week, but that was against a Bears team that is terrible against the pass. His numbers were not a all impressive in his first game back, and he was picked off twice in the first half. The cold weather isn't likely going to help him against a stout 49ers defense, that has allowed opponents to average just 220 yards passing per game. A strong defense and a potent running game is the recipe for success in cold weather, and if these teams are forced to lean on their running games, we should see a low scoring affair. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-05-14 | San Francisco 49ers -136 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on the San Francisco 49ers.
The are saying it could be the coldest game in the history of the NFL, but if you thought that favored the home team, you could be interested to learn that the Packers have lost more home playoff games than they have won the past decade. The 49ers have also defeated the Packers in each of the last three meetings, one of those in Green Bay. We all remember Colin Kaepernick putting on a show in the win over the Packers in San Francisco in the divisional playoff game last year. He's burned the Packers for a career high 181 yards rushing, and 412 yards passing. If you expect the cold weather to bother Kaepernick, keep in mind he was born and raised a die hard packers fan .. in Wisconsin. While playing college ball at Nevada, Kaepernick, threw for 259 yards and a touchdown and ran for 45 yards and a score in a 34-31 upset of the then #3 ranked Boise State Broncos, with temperatures in the 20s. Aaron Rodgers made the big play when he needed to last week, but that was against a Bears team that is terrible against the pass. His numbers were not all that impressive in his first game back, and he was picked off twice in the first half. The cold weather isn't likely going to help him against a stout 49ers defense, that has allowed opponents to average just 220 yards passing per game. A strong defense and a potent running game is the recipe for success in cold weather, and the 49ers possess both those attributes, while the Packers have neither. The absence of Clay Matthews will really make it hard to contain Kaepernick, and as much as I really DO NOT like his attitude, I think he's going to have a big day. Take the 49ers. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-05-14 | San Diego Chargers +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 94 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the San Diego Chargers.
The Chargers will be a big underdog on the road in Cincy, playing the 11-5 Bengals who were 8-0 at home this season. They also beat the Chargers in San Diego by a score of 17-10 earlier this season. The Chargers didn't roll over in that game, going to the locker room tied 7-7 at the half, but eventually losing 17-10. They limited Andy Dalton to 190 yards and a touchdown and an interception on 14-of-23 passing. The Chargers have thrived in the roll of an underdog this season, winning on the road in Kansas City, Denver and Philadelphia. Philip Rivers has a higher QBR on the road than he does at home, and he's thrown for 2,496 yards and 15 touchdowns away from San Diego this season. Andy Dalton has had some big games, no doubt about that, but he's also had some real stinkers. He's been picked off 20 times this season, and four of those came last week against Baltimore (at home). The 26 year old hasn't inspired much confidence in the playoffs the past two season's throwing four interceptions and getting sacked six times without throwing a single touchdown pass. In a big game, with winner takes all, I am inclined to put my trust in a veteran and proven performer like Rivers. I not only think the Chargers will cover, I think they have an excellent chance to win this game outright. Take San Diego. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-04-14 | New Orleans Saints +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 77 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints.
The Philadelphia Eagles and Chip Kelly's offense have been impressive when things have gone their way. But remember a few weeks ago in Minnesota they were blown out by the Vikings, with Matt Cassel putting up video game type numbers. It was another backup quarterback last week that had his way with the Eagles secondary, Kyle Orton threw for 358 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Now Philly has to try to contain Drew Brees, and hope that their own inexperienced quarterback can hold his composure. What really concerns me about the Eagles, is that throughout the season I have seen Chip Kelly make numerous terrible decisions, and there is no doubt in my mind that Sean Payton will out-coach Kelly here today. Take the Saints. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-04-14 | Kansas City Chiefs +3 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 74 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs will be on the road in Indianapolis on Wild Card Weekend, and they will be the underdog. The Colts were fortunate to finish the season with three straight wins, one of those an upset of the Chiefs at Arrowhead. That game saw Kansas City turn the ball over four times, all but handing Indianapolis the victory. They were playing without several key starters in that game, and they expect most of those players to return for this game. "We'll see them again," Chiefs linebacker Derrick Johnson said. "They've got the upper hand on us right now because in their minds they think they can beat us. If we go down there, it will be a different story. But we've got to fight our way back." The Colts caught a lot of breaks during the season, including miracle comebacks against Houston and Tennessee just two weeks apart. Ultimately I just don't think their defense can stop the Chiefs running game, and without a serious running threat of their own, they are putting too much pressure on Andrew Luck. Take the Chiefs. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-03-14 | Clemson +3 v. Ohio State | Top | 40-35 | Win | 100 | 445 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Clemson Tigers.
In the Sugar Bowl, we saw what can happen to a team that had it's dreams crushed just a few weeks earlier. Alabama appeared to bring a halfhearted effort against Oklahoma, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Buckeyes put in a similar showing here tonight. Ohio State didn't look that sharp at the end of the season anyway, struggling mightily in big games versus Michigan and Michigan State. Connor Cook and Devin Gardner picked apart the Buckeyes secondary, as Ohio State surrendered over 1000 yards of total offense in it's last two games. Now they try to shore up their secondary against Tajh Boyd and the Clemson offense, that averaged over 40 points per game - 9th in the country. Losing their best pass rusher isn't going to help matters, as Noah Spence will miss this game serving a suspension for an unspecified rules violation. He led the team with eight sacks and 14.5 tackles for a loss during the season. Clemson lost just two games this season, to Florida State and South Carolina. The Seminoles are in a league of their own, and I don't think the Buckeyes defense is comparable to that of the Gamecocks. Clemson knocked off #5 ranked Georgia on the road in their season opener, while the Buckeyes highest ranked opponent was #10 Michigan State, and they lost that game 34-24. Take the Tigers. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-03-14 | Oklahoma State -1 v. Missouri | Top | 31-41 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
In the Sugar Bowl, we saw what can happen to a team that had it's dreams crushed just a few weeks earlier. Alabama appeared to bring a halfhearted effort against Oklahoma, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tigers put in a similar showing here tonight. It was a crushing loss in a close game at Auburn that killed their national title aspirations, and now Missouri will play in the Cotton Bowl while Auburn place for the BCS championship against Florida State. Win or lose, this Missouri team has to be left thinking that they were one win away from something much bigger. That isn't necessarily the case for the Cowboys, who should be quite pleased by a victory in the Cotton Bowl. Clint Chelf has ignited the Cowboys offense since taking over at quarterback, and he's thrown nine TDs and just two picks in his last four starts. "Any time you can play an SEC team, you want to do it. They're obviously regarded as the top conference," Chelf said. "Getting a shot at a team that was in the conference championship is a good challenge for us." Take the Cowboys. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-01-14 | Central Florida v. Baylor -16 | Top | 52-42 | Loss | -110 | 397 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Baylor Bears.
UCF won the ACC Title when Cincinnati came up short at home versus Louisville. They won 11-of-12 during the season, and even the one loss was pretty impressive, losing by just three points to the Gamecocks. The final score in that game is a little deceiving though, as South Carolina was driving deep in the red zone in the fourth quarter, about to go up by 17 points, when an interception eventually led to a UCF touchdown. The Knights seemed to fade at the end of the season, despite winning all their remaining games after losing to the Gamecocks. They needed a miracle comeback with 10 points in the final 1:06 to sneak past Temple 39-36 on November 16. Their final two games of the season came against unranked opponents, and they won those by a combined seven points. Baylor was in a league of it's own this year, leading the nation averaging 53.3 points per game. It wasn't just the Bears offense that was impressive, they also got it done defensively, allowing just over 20 points per game. Of their 11 victories, nine of those came by a margin of 20 or more points. They beat the Texas Longhorns by a score of 30-10 in their final game of the season, and they did it without Tevin Reese, and a banged up Lache Seastrunk. Both players come in healthy and ready to go in the Fiesta Bowl. I'm expecting the Bears to put on a show tonight. Take Baylor. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-01-14 | Michigan State v. Stanford -225 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -225 | 99 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Stanford Cardinal.
When I bet against Michigan in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, I cautioned not to put too much stock in an impressive showing against Ohio State. I believe the same holds true here with the Spartans. I backed Michigan State when they upset the Buckeyes in the Big-10 championship game, but I have been telling people all year that Ohio State is one of the most overrated teams in the nation. The Cardinal on the other hand are a team that plays with the big boys. While Sparty has been dominating the Big-10, all the Cardinal have been doing is playing the likes of Oregon, UCLA, Arizona State .. and the list goes on. They beat the Ducks again this year, and they dominated the Pac-12 championship game on the road against a very good Arizona State team. Kevin Hogan comes into this game at quarterback for the Cardinal with the experience of playing in last year's Rose Bowl, while Connor Cook is playing in a bowl game for the first time. I have a lot of respect for this tough Spartans team, but I think they are biting off more than they can chew here against Stanford. Take the Cardinal. GL, Jesse Schule |
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01-01-14 | Iowa v. LSU -7 | Top | 14-21 | Push | 0 | 510 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the LSU Tigers.
After losing three games this season, the Tigers have fallen out of favor with pollsters, and much of the public. Still, you have to put those losses in perspective. They lost on the road to Georgia and Ole Miss, and both those games were decided by just three points. They were tied 17-17 in the third quarter at Alabama, but went on to lose 38-17, after the Tide scored three unanswered touchdowns. LSU will play Iowa in the Outback Bowl on New Years Day, without starting quarterback Zack Mettenberger. With freshman Anthony Jennings getting his first career start for the Tigers, their offensive game plan could be quite conservative. That might not be a bad thing against a Hawkeyes team that boasts the nation's 10th ranked defense. Admittedly, I don't know a lot about Jennings, but I do know that he won't have to do much to be better than Jake Ruddock. I haven't been impressed with the Hawkeyes quarterback, and some might remember that he was just 12-of-24 for 109 yards with no touchdowns and an interception at home against Wisconsin back in Week 9. If he thought the Badgers defense was tough, he's in for a real nightmare against the Tigers. LSU should be able to win handily, leaning on it's running game and an mismatch with an elite defense going up against a terrible Iowa offense. Take LSU. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-31-13 | Duke v. Texas A&M -11.5 | Top | 48-52 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas A&M Aggies.
Duke shocked the nation by winning 10 games this season, and punching a ticket to the ACC championship game. The Blue Devils got a rude awakening though, losing to Florida State by a score of 45-7. When you look at how Duke got here, you can see that they won a lot of close games against poor teams. They overcame a 14-0 deficit to come back and beat Wake Forest 28-21 in Week 11. They kicked a late field goal to come from behind to beat the Tar Heels, and rallied in the fourth quarter to come from behind and beat the N.C. State Wolfpack. The Aggies lost their last two games of the season to LSU and Missouri on the road, but I don't think this Duke team is at all comparable to those SEC powerhouses. I like the Aggies and Johnny Manziel to make a statement here against a Duke team that isn't as good as it's cracked up to be. The Nation's #5 ranked scoring offense should have a field day against Duke's suspect defense. In their three losses to Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh and Florida State, they allowed an average of 47 points. The average margin of defeat in those games was more than 21 points. Manziel's swan song should be a one-sided affair. Take A&M GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-31-13 | Mississippi State v. Rice UNDER 51 | Top | 44-7 | Push | 0 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
10*
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12-30-13 | Texas v. Oregon -14 | Top | 7-30 | Win | 105 | 348 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oregon Ducks.
Oregon wasn`t supposed to be here. This was supposed to be Oregon`s year to play for the national title, but an injury to star quarterback Marcus Mariota sent the Ducks into a downward spiral, losing to Stanford and Arizona in the final four weeks of the season, and narrowly escaping a loss to the Beavers in the Civil War Game in their final game of the season. Mariota has had over a month to recover, and he says he's ready to go against Texas: |
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12-29-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys +7 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 80 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas needs to win at home in their final game of the season in order to make the playoffs. Nobody is giving the Cowboys much of a chance without starting quarterback Tony Romo. That strikes me as a little strange, considering it was Romo that many blamed for losses to Denver, and much of the Cowboy's struggles this season. Veteran backup Kyle Orton will step in, and he's been a proven winner throughout his career (35-34 as a starter in nine seasons). Last week in Washington, I saw a Cowboys team that has plenty of fight left in it. Two weeks ago in Minnesota, I saw a Philadelphia team that looked lost, with a coach that could best be described as incompetent. Now Philly looked unstoppable against the Bears, but we should remember that Dallas dominated the Eagles earlier this season in Philadelphia. Nick Foles completed 11-of-29 passes for just 80 yards, getting sacked three times and leaving with a concussion. LeSean McCoy had just 55 yards on 18 carries in the loss. Dallas is getting quite a few points as the home underdog here, and I see no reason why this won't be a close game. Don't be surprised to see the Cowboys win outright. Take Dallas. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-29-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. San Diego Chargers -9.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -102 | 75 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the San Diego Chargers.
The Chargers are making a furious charge to get into the playoffs. I bet on San Diego in Week 12 in an upset victory on the road in Kansas City, and then again three weeks later in Denver (+$240 ML 1/H). San Diego will finish the season at home versus a Chiefs team with nothing left to play for. Expect Andy Reid to keep his star players on the bench, especially Jamaal Charles. Reid hasn't admitted that he intends to sit his starters, saying: "... This is one of those decisions you make, it's a bit of a gut feeling you go with." History tells us otherwise. Back in 2010, the Eagles finished the season at home versus the Cowboys in a meaningless game, and here is a quote from ESPN in the post-game recap: "Michael Vick and nearly every starter didn't play in a game that had no effect on Philadelphia's playoff positioning. The Eagles (10-6) are locked into the No. 3 seed and will host Green Bay in a wild-card game next Sunday." The Chargers should be able to win decisively in a must win game, playing against Kansas City's backups. Take San Diego. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-29-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Arizona Cardinals +1 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals must win this game if they have any chance to make the playoffs, while the Niners can clinch home field with a win on the road, and a Seattle loss. It might be asking a lot for the Seahawks to lose at home to St. Louis though, and winning in Arizona isn't gonna be easy either. The Cardinals are 6-1 at home, and their only loss came at the hands of those pesky Seahawks. They have won seven of their last eight overall, and the only defeat came on the road in Philly in a game decided by just three points. San Franscisco has won five straight, since suffering back to back losses to Carolina and New Orleans. Four of those five wins came against teams with losing records, while the exception was a 19-17 win over the Seahawks in San Francisco. In fact, if you ask yourself how many road victories the Niners have versus teams with a winning record, the answer you will come up with is ZERO! Their road wins came against Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, St. Louis and Washington. Carson Palmer was picked off four times last week in Seattle, and still the Cardinals managed to upset the Seahawks. Interceptions have plagued Palmer throughout his career, and he's been picked off 21 times this season, but only six of those came at home in Arizona. Palmer doesn't have to be perfect here, he just has to be better than Colin Kaepernick, and that shouldn't be a problem. Take ZONA. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-29-13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints -12 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 66 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints.
The Bucs have lost back to back games, and I can't see any reason why they would show up for a road game against a motivated Saints team that needs a win to improve it's playoff position. The Saints have clobbered the opposition at home this year, with a 7-0 record at the Superdome. Some might be wary of laying double digits, but I am expecting this to be all Saints, from start to finish. Take New Orleans. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-29-13 | Green Bay Packers -145 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 33-28 | Win | 100 | 66 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Green Bay Packers.
The Pack will have Aaron Rodgers back at quarterback in a must win game versus the Bears in Chicago. The Bears were blown out in Philly last week, and looked nothing like a team that hopes to play in the post season. Jay Cutler has not played particularly well for the Bears since returning from injury, and the Bears defense has been just terrible. I like the Packers to get it done in this must win. Take Green Bay. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-29-13 | Denver Broncos -10 v. Oakland Raiders | Top | 34-14 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.
The #Broncos led by just three points heading into the fourth quarter of last week's game on the road in Houston, but went on to score 21 unanswered points in the final period. Denver will wrap up the season on the road in Oakland, and the Broncos need a win to lock up top spot in the AFC. The #Raiders have made the controversial decision to start Terrelle Pryor at quarterback in the season finale, after he lost the starting job to Matt McGloin. The move doesn't sit well with Pryor's agent, who says the team is putting his client in a position to fail. Pryor has been picked off six times, without throwing for a single touchdown in his last five appearances. He's been dangerous with his legs, but Denver's defense has been good against the run all year. They held RGIII to just seven yards on five carries, and earlier in the season they roughed up Mike Vick in 52-20 victory over the Eagles. The Broncos will be without Von Miller on defense, but remember he didn't play while serving a suspension through the first five games of the season. Injuries on offense might be a bigger concern, with Welker still suffering from a concussion and a banged up offensive line. Oakland did well last week, limiting Phillip Rivers to just 201 yards with one TD and an INT. We've seen the total go under in two of the last three meetings between these two teams, and the number for this game is way higher than it was in any of those previous contests. Expect Manning to rest in the fourth quarter if Denver has a big lead, and I wouldn't be too optimistic about Oakland scoring a lot of points here. Take the Broncos. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-28-13 | Michigan v. Kansas State -205 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 41 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on the Kansas State Wildcats.
I see a lot of people out there backing Michigan in this game, and I can see why. On the surface, it looks pretty impressive pushing Ohio State to the brink in their final game of the season, losing by a single point (42-41). When you closely examine that game though, there are quite a few things I find alarming. I really don't think much of coach Brady Hoke's decision to go for the two-point conversion on the final play, instead of taking his chances in overtime. Another scary prospect for Michigan backers is the fact that the Buckeyes racked up almost 400 rushing yards in that game. They face a Kansas State team that relies almost exclusively on running the football, and it's going to be a long day if they are unable to stop the run in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. Devin Gardner threw for 451 yards and four touchdowns, having a hell of game versus the Buckeyes, but he's not expected to start. Highly touted rookie Shane Morris will get the nod, and he'll face a tough Wildcats defense that many believe is much better than their numbers indicate. Despite all the love for Michigan after their loss to Ohio State, the reality is that they have lost four of their last five overall, and needed overtime to get past a pretty poor Northwestern team. Take the Wildcats. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-28-13 | Miami (Florida) v. Louisville -160 | Top | 9-36 | Win | 100 | 37 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Louisville Cardinals.
Louisville took advantage of a soft schedule, winning all but one of it's 12 games during the season. I was impressed with the Cardinal in their final victory on the road versus Cincinnati in the Keg of Nails, especially the play of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. He completed 23-of-37 attempts for 255 yards and three touchdowns against the nation's 12th ranked defense. He should be in for a big night against a poor Hurricanes defense in the Russell Athletic Bowl. Miami looked awful losing three straight games to Florida State, Virginia Tech and Duke in the second half of the season. They allowed more than 40 points, and 500 yards in each of those games. You can hardly fault them for those numbers against the Seminoles, but there is no excuse for allowing the Hokies and Blue Devils to blow them out. The Hurricanes have really struggled since losing star running back Duke Johnson, converting on fewer than 1/3 of their third down tries. The Cardinals rank #2 in the nation allowing opponents to convert on third down at a rate of 28.6%. Take L'Ville. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-28-13 | Cincinnati +3 v. North Carolina | Top | 17-39 | Loss | -120 | 34 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Cincinnati Bearcats.
I bet on the Bearcats in the Keg of Nails game versus Louisville, and it turned out to be an epic bad beat. Cincinnati blew a golden opportunity in the fourth quarter to win the game outright as a home underdog, and went on to lose by seven points in overtime, when a three point loss would have still covered. The Cardinals are a quality football team though, and Teddy Bridgewater is one of the nation's best quarterbacks. Cincy will play North Carolina in the Belk Bowl, and the Tar Heels will be without their starting quarterback Bryn Renner. Marquise Williams has been impressive since taking over for the injured Renner, throwing for more than 1500 yards and 14 TDs in eight appearances. He struggled in the season finale versus Duke though, completing 17-of-36 attempts for 223 yards with a TD and a pair of INTs. He's facing a tough Cincy defense that ranks 12th in the nation, allowing fewer than 20 points per game. Brandon Kay had an impressive season for the Bearcats, but he was playing through nagging ailments in his final few appearances of the season. The three weeks off should be a huge benefit to the Cincinnati quarterback. North Carolina will not have their offensive coordinator calling the plays on offense in the Belk Bowl, as Blake Anderson has moved on to coach Arkansas State. They might struggle to put points on the board versus this stingy Cincy defense. Take Cincy. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-28-13 | Cincinnati v. North Carolina UNDER 61.5 | Top | 17-39 | Win | 100 | 1 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CIN@UNC to go UNDER the total.
I bet on the Bearcats in the Keg of Nails game versus Louisville, and it turned out to be an epic bad beat. Cincinnati blew a golden opportunity in the fourth quarter to win the game outright as a home underdog, and went on to lose by seven points in overtime, when a three point loss would have still covered. The Cardinals are a quality football team though, and Teddy Bridgewater is one of the nation's best quarterbacks. Cincy will play North Carolina in the Belk Bowl, and the Tar Heels will be without their starting quarterback Bryn Renner. Marquise Williams has been impressive since taking over for the injured Renner, throwing for more than 1500 yards and 14 TDs in eight appearances. He struggled in the season finale versus Duke though, completing 17-of-36 attempts for 223 yards with a TD and a pair of INTs. He's facing a tough Cincy defense that ranks 12th in the nation, allowing fewer than 20 points per game. Brandon Kay had an impressive season for the Bearcats, but he was playing through nagging ailments in his final few appearances of the season. The three weeks off should be a huge benefit to the Cincinnati quarterback. North Carolina will not have their offensive coordinator calling the plays on offense in the Belk Bowl, as Blake Anderson has moved on to coach Arkansas State. They might struggle to put points on the board versus this stingy Cincy defense. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-27-13 | Washington v. BYU UNDER 61.5 | Top | 31-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
10*
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12-27-13 | Washington v. BYU +3.5 | Top | 31-16 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
10*
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12-26-13 | Utah State v. Northern Illinois UNDER 58.5 | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 46 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NIU@USU to go UNDER the total.
The Aggies came up short in their season finale against Fresno State, losing by a score of 24-17. They did hold the Bulldogs to a season-low points total, which is a fairly impressive result against the nation's #1 passing offense. Utah State will face another high scoring team in the Poinsettia Bowl, when they take on Northern Illinois. The Huskies were blown out in the Mac Championship Game, losing 47-27. The Huskies won their first 12 games of the season, and quarterback Jordan Lynch put up some pretty impressive numbers during that span. For the most part, those wins came against the minnows in the MAC, and when confronted with a solid defensive team like Bowling Green, Lynch and the Huskies failed to rise to the occasion. The Aggies aren't that much different than the Falcons, another team that relies heavily on a Top 10 defense that has allowed an average of just 17.3 points per game. Utah State won five straight before losing to Fresno State, and they haven't seen the total go higher than 57 in any of their past 10 games. The Aggies picked off Derek Carr twice in their last game, and Jordan Lynch threw a pair of interceptions against Bowling Green. I am expecting the Aggies to grind out a win here in another low scoring game, against an overrated Huskies team. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-26-13 | Utah State +1 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Utah State Aggies.
The Aggies came up short in their season finale against Fresno State, losing by a score of 24-17. They did hold the Bulldogs to a season-low points total, which is a fairly impressive result against the nation's #1 passing offense. Utah State will face another high scoring team in the Poinsettia Bowl, when they take on Northern Illinois. The Huskies were blown out in the Mac Championship Game, losing 47-27. The Huskies won their first 12 games of the season, and quarterback Jordan Lynch put up some pretty impressive numbers during that span. For the most part, those wins came against the minnows in the MAC, and when confronted with a solid defensive team like Bowling Green, Lynch and the Huskies failed to rise to the occasion. The Aggies aren't that much different than the Falcons, another team that relies heavily on a Top 10 defense that has allowed an average of just 17.3 points per game. Utah State won five straight before losing to Fresno State, and they haven't seen the total go higher than 57 in any of their past 10 games. The Aggies picked off Derek Carr twice in their last game, and Jordan Lynch threw a pair of interceptions against Bowling Green. I am expecting the Aggies to grind out a win here in another low scoring game, against an overrated Huskies team. Take USU. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-26-13 | Pittsburgh v. Bowling Green -4 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Bowling Green Falcons.
It was just three weeks ago that the Falcons steamrolled the previously unbeaten Northern Illinois Huskies in the MAC Championship game, and they will step foot on the very same field to play Pittsburgh in the Little Caesars Bowl. The Falcons come into this game without head coach Dave Clawson, who has moved on to Wake Forest. Traditional wisdom tells us to be wary of betting on teams with a new coach in bowl games, but there are plenty of examples where teams don't miss a beat. Look at the Trojans in their win over Fresno State, with interim coach Clay Helton calling the plays. The Trojans fired Lane Kiffin half way through the season, then went on to win five their next six under Ed Orgeron. Despite their immediate turnaround, they chose to let Orgeron go, hiring Steve Sarkasian their former assistant. This didn't stop them from blowing out the Bulldogs in the Las Vegas Bowl. I'm expecting a similar effort here from the Falcons, who finished 5th in opponent scoring, allowing an average of just 14.8 points per game. Bowling Green lost just three games all season, and one of those was a 21-20 defeat on the road against an SEC team, Mississippi State. Pittsburgh was wildly inconsistent, defeating teams like Notre Dame and Duke, but losing to the likes of Navy and North Carolina. They closed the season losing 4-of-6, and I just can't see them bringing much here in this contest. Take the Falcons. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-24-13 | Oregon State -2.5 v. Boise State | Top | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 325 h 57 m | Show |
10*
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12-22-13 | Oakland Raiders v. San Diego Chargers OVER 49.5 | Top | 13-26 | Loss | -105 | 152 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OAK@SD to go OVER the total.
The Raiders were handed a fourth consecutive loss at home against Kansas City last Sunday, and once again their defense was victimized by another record setting performance. Earlier this season, Nick Foles tied an NFL record throwing seven touchdown passes in a 49-20 blowout win over the Raiders in Oakland. Last week it was Jamaal Charles, who caught four touchdown passes, and ran in another. The Raiders will limp into San Diego to take on the Chargers, who are in desperate need of a home win in order to stay alive in the race for an AFC wild card spot. Phillip Rivers has a 9-1 touchdown to interception ratio in his last four starts, and he should be looking at a big day against an Oakland secondary that ranks 23rd in the NFL against the pass, allowing over 250 yards per game. Rivers has had a breakout year, after slipping into mediocrity the past few seasons in San Diego. He's completing a career high 69% of his pass attempts, and he's thrown for 28 touchdowns, just six short of his career high 34 in 2008. There's every reason to expect the Raiders to be on the wrong side of another blowout, against a motivated opponent on the road. Take the Over. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-22-13 | Cleveland Browns v. NY Jets -2 | Top | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New York Jets.
The Jets lost again on the road last week in Carolina, but they did manage to cover the double digit spread. It's pretty clear that the Jets are a different team at home than they are on the road. Five of New York's six wins have come at the Meadowlands, and they host a Cleveland team that is 1-5 on the road this Sunday. The Browns have sent quarterback Brandon Weeden back to bench in favor of Jason Campbell, but the results were not good last week, losing at home to the Bears. Campbell was 23-of-39 for 273 yards and a touchdown, but he was picked off twice. He's lost each of his last four starts, and he's thrown as many touchdowns as interceptions (5) during that span. Geno Smith knows a thing or two about throwing interceptions, he''s been picked off 21 times this season. He'll be able to lean on a strong defense and power running game at home this week, and he's proven that he can be successful when he's not asked to do too much This has all the signs of a tough, hard fought, close game, but my money is on the home side to come out on top. Take NYJ. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-22-13 | Miami Dolphins v. Buffalo Bills +3 | Top | 0-19 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Bills.
The Dolphins are red hot, winners of three straight and four of five. Let's not forget what happened the last time they played the Bills though, when Buffalo won outright as a double-digit underdog in Miami in Week 7. Ryan Tannehil was terrorized by the Buffalo defense, throwing a pair of interceptions in the loss. He was sacked four times last week in the win over the Patriots. The Bills have lost three of their last four at home, but two of those losses came in overtime. They have a history of playing close games versus the Dolphins, and we should see another close game here. E.J. Manuel did not play in the Bills Week 7 win in Miami, and he will sit out this game with a knee injury. Thad Lewis played well, completing 21-of-32 attempts for 201 yards with no touchdowns and an interception in that game. Lewis will be under center once again for the Bills, looking for just his second win as a starter. He threw for 216 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a 27-24 overtime loss to the Bengals in his season debut. Take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-22-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 23-7 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Colts were really slumping heading into last week's game versus Houston, but they turned things around with a big home win over the Texans. It should prove to be a lot tougher this week on the road at Arrowhead. The Chiefs are coming off a big win on the road at Oakland, by a score of 56-31. The Raiders just couldn't stop Jamaal Charles, who caught four touchdown passes and ran in one more. He could be in for a big game at home this week against one of the NFL's weakest run defenses. The Colts have allowed opponents to average over 128 rushing yards per game this season. The Colts have alternated wins and losses every week since Week 5, and there is every reason to expect that trend to continue here on Sunday. Note that the Colts needed miracle comebacks to win in Houston and Tennessee. Don't count on the Colts getting lucky this week. Take the Chiefs. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-21-13 | Colorado State v. Washington State -4 | Top | 48-45 | Loss | -108 | 128 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Washington State Cougars.
Auburn will play Florida State in the national championship game, but the Tigers had their fair sure of luck in getting there. Some might forget that they just narrowly avoided defeat in their opener versus the Cougars. Washington State did well to finish the season with a 6-6 record, with a very tough schedule that USA Today called the toughest in the country. Washington State also has one of the top quarterbacks in the country in Connor Halliday, who finished fourth with 4,187 yards and 28 touchdowns. The Rams managed to finish the season with a winning record (7-6), but against some of the weakest teams in the country. When the Cougars were playing Oregon, Stanford and USC, the Rams were playing the likes of Hawaii, Nevada and Air Force. In the final three weeks of the season, the Cougars upset the Wildcats in Arizona, blew out the Utes at home, and lost a close game on the road to rivals Washington. Take WAZZU. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-16-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Detroit Lions -5.5 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Detroit Lions.
The Lions jumped out to an early 14-0 lead last week in Philadelphia, but they would end up losing in the snow to the Eagles by a score of 34-20. They are back in the dome this week, hosting the Ravens, who have really struggled on the road. Baltimore is just 1-5 away from home this season, and the Ravens have lost three straight at Chicago, Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Joe Flacco has thrown just one more touchdown than he has interceptions this season, and 11 of his 17 picks have come on the road, where he has just eight touchdown passes. The Ravens defense hasn't looked very impressive, and since losing to Denver they haven't really faced a top tier offensive team. Remember Peyton Manning threw for 462 yards and seven touchdowns in the win on Opening Day. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are likely licking their chops at the thought of exposing this defense that allowed the vikings to score 20 points in the fourth quarter at home last week. Detroit's defense has been very good against the run, ranking 5th with opponents averaging fewer than 100 yards per game. This is likely going to force the Ravens to pass, resulting in less time coming off the clock with offensive possessions. We've seen high scoring games in six of the Lions last seven home games, and there is every reason to expect another barn burner tonight. When it's all said and done, I expect the home team to win and and cover. Take DET. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-16-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Detroit Lions OVER 50 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BAL@DET to go OVER the total (1st half)
The Lions jumped out to an early 14-0 lead last week in Philadelphia, but they would end up losing in the snow to the Eagles by a score of 34-20. They are back in the dome this week, hosting the Ravens, who have really struggled on the road. Baltimore is just 1-5 away from home this season, and the Ravens have lost three straight at Chicago, Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Joe Flacco has thrown just one more touchdown than he has interceptions this season, and 11 of his 17 picks have come on the road, where he has just eight touchdown passes. The Ravens defense hasn't looked very impressive, and since losing to Denver they haven't really faced a top tier offensive team. Remember Peyton Manning threw for 462 yards and seven touchdowns in the win on Opening Day. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are likely licking their chops at the thought of exposing this defense that allowed the vikings to score 20 points in the fourth quarter at home last week. Detroit's defense has been very good against the run, ranking 5th with opponents averaging fewer than 100 yards per game. This is likely going to force the Ravens to pass, resulting in less time coming off the clock with offensive possessions. We've seen high scoring games in six of the Lions last seven home games, and there is every reason to expect another barn burner tonight. When it's all said and done, I expect the home team to win and and cover. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-15-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 40 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 151 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CIN@PIT to go OVER the total.
The Steelers defense looked pretty bad against Miami last week, allowing the Dolphins to leave town with a 34-28 victory. They will host the Bengals this week, and Cincinnati is coming off a 42-28 win over the Colts. Andy Dalton threw for 275 yards and three touchdowns, while Giovani Bernard picked up 99 yards on just 12 carries. The Bengals can clinch a playoff birth with a win in Pittsburgh, and a loss by the Ravens or the Dolphins. Big Ben has thrown for 1190 yards and 11 touchdowns without a single interception over his last four starts. These two teams have both scored their fair share of points this season, and I expect to see these two offenses put some points on the board. We see a very low total for this game, based on past trends of low scoring games. Those trends came at a time when the Steelers defense was a lot better than it is today. Take the Over. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-15-13 | Arizona Cardinals -145 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 147 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals have won five of six, with the only loss during that span coming on the road in Philadelphia. Arizona will be on the road this week, taking on the Titans, who have lost four of their last five. Carson Palmer has the Cardinals offense running like a well oiled machine, and he's facing a Titans defense that was lit up for 51 points on the road at Denver last week. You might expect the Titans to play better at home, but that sure hasn't been the case lately, losing four straight in Nashville, including a loss to the Jaguars. Ryan Fitzpatrick has struggled since coming in to replace Jake Locker, and he's thrown four picks and just two touchdowns in his last two starts. He's got his work cut out for him this week against an Arizona defense that ranks among the NFL's best against the pass. The Cards have 38 sacks and 17 picks on opposing quarterbacks this season. Running the ball might not be an option, as Arizona has allowed fewer than 85 yards rushing per game (3rd in the NFL). I like the Cardinals to grind out a win on the road here.. Take Arizona. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-15-13 | Kansas City Chiefs -200 v. Oakland Raiders | Top | 56-31 | Win | 100 | 147 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs snapped a three game losing streak with a blowout win on the road versus Washington last week. This Sunday they will be facing another struggling team on the road in Oakland. The Raiders have lost three straight, including a home loss to a below average Tennessee Titans team. These teams met in Kansas City prior to Oakland's bye week, and the Chiefs terrorized Terrelle Pryor in that game. The Raiders quarterback was sacked nine times and forced to throw three picks. Pryor has since been demoted in favor of Matt McGloin, who has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns the last three weeks (3). The Raiders running game is also a big question mark, with Darren McFadden out, and Rashad Jennings coming back from a concussion. Defensively the Raiders have been picked apart by opposing quarterbacks, most notably a record breaking performance by Nick Foles. The Chiefs need to win to clinch a playoff birth, and there's every reason to expect Kansas City to do just that. Take the Chiefs. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-15-13 | Houston Texans +230 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 3-25 | Loss | -100 | 144 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Houston Texans (ML)
The Colts have been nothing short of terrible since the bye week, going 3-3 during that six game span. It all started in Houston, coming back from a 21-3 halftime deficit to win 27-24. Houston's head coach Gary Kubiak collapsed at halftime in that game, and was taken to the hospital in an ambulance. The team appeared to be shell shocked for the remainder of the game, and Indianapolis took advantage. The Colts mounted another stunning second half comeback against the Titans two weeks later, winning 30-27. The Indy defense has allowed over 30 points per game since the bye week, and they have really struggled against the run. After losing 11 straight games, some think the Texans will fold like a cheap suit, I disagree. I recently published the following: "Obviously the Texans don't have a lot to play for, and there is nothing left to salvage this season other than a little pride. There will be some players that are fighting for a roster spot, while others simply want to win. You don't make it this far as a professional athlete by accepting defeat. I am sure that many of the players in Houston's locker room absolutely despise losing, and relish every opportunity to get back onto the field and end this ugly losing streak. It's also worth noting that during this span, they have lost five of those games by three points or less, and eight of those 11 losses were decided by no more than seven points. They rank #3 in the NFL in total defense, which seems awfully hard to believe with a 2-11 record. I see the Texans as a football team that has had some hard luck, but isn't really all that far off of where they need to be to compete in this league. Certainly not a team that needs to lose games intentionally to move up in the draft." Take Houston to win outright. GL, Jesse Schule. |
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12-15-13 | Philadelphia Eagles -210 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 30-48 | Loss | -210 | 122 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Vikings will host the Eagles this Sunday, and they will be without Adrian Peterson, who led the league in rushing last season. The Eagles will have LeSean McCoy, who leads the league with over 1300 yards rushing this season. McCoy matches up against a Vikings defense that has struggled to stop the run, allowing an average of 118 yards per game. The news goes from bad to worse for Vikings fans though, as their struggles against the pass are ever greater, ranking 30th in the NFL allowing over 280 yards per game. Nick Foles replaced Mike Vick as the starter in back in Oakland in November, and he tossed a record seven touchdown passes in that game. He's since gone 5-0 with 14 touchdowns and just a single interception during that span. Matt Cassel will start at quarterback for the Vikes, and he hasn't been impressive at all, throwing four picks and three touchdowns the last four weeks. Last week the Eagles proved they can play in bad weather, and we could be in for another snow bowl here in Minnesota on Sunday. Take Philly. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-14-13 | Army v. Navy UNDER 55 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 126 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARMY@NAVY to go UNDER the total.
The annual Army/Navy game has some overwhelming trends, most notably the fact that Navy beats Army every year, or at least going back the last decade. The margin of victory though has been quite slim the last two year, as Army lost 17-13 last year, and 27-21 in 2011. With two teams that focus almost exclusively on running the football, it's not surprising that the trend has been low scoring games. The total has gone under in every game between these two teams since 2005. It seems odd that the listed total for this year's game is no lower than it had been in any of the previous five meetings. In fact, we have seen the total as low as 41 in 2009, and still they failed to reach that number. Weather certainly could be a factor, as the venue of Lincoln Field can be a frozen tundra in mid December. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-14-13 | Army +400 v. Navy | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARMY ML.
The annual Army/Navy game has some overwhelming trends, most notably the fact that Navy beats Army every year, or at least going back the last decade. The margin of victory though has been quite slim the last two year, as Army lost 17-13 last year, and 27-21 in 2011. With two teams that focus almost exclusively on running the football, it's not surprising that the trend has been low scoring games. The total has gone under in every game between these two teams since 2005. It seems odd that the listed total for this year's game is no lower than it had been in any of the previous five meetings. In fact, we have seen the total as low as 41 in 2009, and still they failed to reach that number. Weather certainly could be a factor, as the venue of Lincoln Field can be a frozen tundra in mid December. Sure enough, just hrs from kickoff and the weather looks pretty bad, which should favor the underdog. Take ARMY ML. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-12-13 | San Diego Chargers +10.5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show |
10*
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12-09-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears | Top | 28-45 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas has won five of it's last seven games, with the only losses coming on the road at Detroit and New Orleans. The loss to Detroit saw the Lions score a controversial touchdown to win by just a single point on the last play of the game. The loss to New Orleans was a complete massacre, but good teams have been losing big at the Superdome all year long. The Bears are a banged up team battling through injuries, and they have won just once in their last four games. Last week they lost in overtime to the Vikings, with Matt Cassel throwing for 243 yards and a touchdown. Adrian Peterson ripped through the Bears #32 ranked run defense for 211 yards on 35 carries. DeMarco Murray has been very effective running the ball, averaging almost 5 yards per carry. Given the Bears inability to stop the run, he should be looking at a big game here tonight. The Cowboys defense has given up an awful lot of yards in the air, and they rank at the bottom of the league against the pass. Don't be fooled though, consider that they played Denver, San Diego, Detroit, and the Saints in New Orleans, you could say those numbers are a little skewed. Josh McCown has been sharp filling in for Jay Cutler, but it's asking a lot for him to trade shots with Tony Romo. The Bears defense is going to have a tough time stopping Romo, as they could be without Lance Briggs, Charles Tillman, and Major Wright. On offense they won't have Jay Cutler, and Brandon Marshall has been limited in practice due to a strained quad. Take Dallas. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-08-13 | Carolina Panthers v. New Orleans Saints -4 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 176 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints.
I cashed in on the Seahawks on Monday Night Football, as they completely dismantled the Saints. It was no surprise to see New Orleans struggle away from the dome, but I expect to see a different team here tonight. After all, they are unbeaten at home (6-0), and they have dominated opponents at the Superdome. Carolina's defense has been impressive, but there is no defense for Drew Brees on his home turf. The Panthers have won eight straight, but three of their last four wins all came in close games, and they needed a little luck along the way. Carolina won by a single point in San Fran, then there was the controversial call on the final play versus the Pats, and a late rally to come back from a 16-3 deficit against the Dolphins. Cam Newton was picked off twice last week against Tampa Bay, and he's thrown six picks in his last five games. He's facing a Saints defense that ranked 4th against the pass, allowing an average of just 206 yards per game. New Orleans should prove to be too much for the Panthers here, and I'm expecting to see another blowout at the Superdome tonight. Take the Saints. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-08-13 | Seattle Seahawks +3 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 52 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks.
The Seahawks looked awfully impressive in a 34-7 blowout win over the Saints on Monday night. They will be on the road in San Francisco this Sunday, taking on a 49ers team that they beat by a score of 29-3 in Week 2 at home. Colin Kaepernick is finding life in the NFL to be a lot tougher than it was in his rookie season, and he has failed to live up to all the hype. He completed just 13-of-28 passes for 127 yards and no touchdowns, getting picked off three times in Seattle earlier this season. Seattle has a reputation as a team that struggles on the road, but that simply hasn't been the case since halfway through last season. The Seahawks are 5-1 on the road this year, while San Fran is 4-2 at home. I believe the Niners just don't match-up well against Seattle, especially Kaepernick facing this #1 ranked pass defense. Russell Wilson might not have the biggest arm, and he might not be as dangerous with his legs as RGIII, but he makes up for that with his decision making. He simply doesn't seem to make mistakes, which is incredibly rare for a young quarterback. Wilson has 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions in his last five starts. Can you believe the Seahawks are getting points? Take Seattle. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-08-13 | NY Giants v. San Diego Chargers -3 | Top | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 52 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the San Diego Chargers.
The Chargers have just one win in their last five games, but it was an impressive showing on the road against the Chiefs. The Giants have won five of their last six overall, but all of those wins have come against backup quarterbacks, or teams with losing records. Philip Rivers is having himself his best season in years, throwing for 3,633 yards and 23 touchdowns so far. The Chargers rank 4th in the NFL in passing, averaging nearly 300 yards per game. Statistically, the Giants appear to have an average defense, but those numbers have been aided by the circumstances. Facing Minnesota with Josh Freeman at quarterback, The Packers with Scott Tolzien under center, and a bunch of the NFL's bottom feeders in recent weeks. Eli Manning is still struggling, and three of his 18 interceptions have come in the last four games. The Giants won on the road in Washington last week, coming from behind. I don't expect to see the Chargers shoot themselves in the foot as did Washington. Take the Chargers. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-07-13 | Utah State +3 v. Fresno State | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -101 | 130 h 21 m | Show |
10*
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12-07-13 | Ohio State v. Michigan State +6 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 129 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Michigan State Spartans.
The Buckeyes and their perfect 12-0 record are all the rage heading into the Big-10 Championship Game, but I'm not buying the hype. Only a failed two-point conversion by the Wolverines prevented them from losing last Saturday, and their defense had no answer for Michigan. The Wolverines weren't able to stop the Buckeyes either, but it's likely to be a different story against the Spartans. Michigan State's defense ranks #3 in the nation, allowing an average of just 11.8 points per game. The Spartans have held opponents to fewer than seven points in five of their last six games. Ohio State's bread and butter has been it's running game, but the Buckeyes are facing a brick wall that is Michigan States #1 ranked run defense, allowing fewer rushing yards than any other team in the country. If the Buckeyes can't run, they will be in trouble in Indianapolis. I'm expecting this game to be a lot like last week's game in Michigan, but this time I think the Buckeyes will be on the wrong side of a close game. Take the Spartans. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-07-13 | Stanford +3.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 128 h 10 m | Show |
10*
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12-06-13 | Bowling Green +5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 47-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Bowling Green Falcons.
The Northern Illinois Huskies might be the most overrated team in the country. NIU is ranked #14, and they come into the MAC Championship with a perfect 12-0 record. While that sounds pretty impressive, the reality is that they have been padding their stats, beating up on the weaker teams in the MAC. The Huskies did beat Ball State and Toledo by double digits, but the final score in both those games was a little misleading. At home against Ball State, it was a tie game in the fourth quarter, but NIU scored 21 unanswered points in the final 10 minutes, and 14 of those points came after the two-minute warning. It was a similar story in the game at Toledo, scoring three unanswered touchdowns after trailing 17-14 in the third quarter. There is no doubt that the Huskies are a dangerous team offensively with Jordan Lynch at quarterback. They can put points on the board in a hurry, but their defense is still a little suspect. NIU has given up an awful lot of points to below average teams. Bowling Green owns the nation's #5 ranked defense, allowing just 13.8 points per game. Last week the Falcons went into Buffalo and held the Bulls to just 7 points, and only 15 yards rushing. Surely this is the best defense NUI will have seen so far, and another late rally might not be so easy to come by. Take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-05-13 | Houston Texans -163 v. Jacksonville Jaguars | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -163 | 32 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Houston Texans.
The Jags lost eight straight to start the season, and there was no doubt that they were the NFL's worst team. They have since won 3-of-4, including a win at Houston, and their stock is on the rise. Make no mistake about it though, Jacksonville is not a very good football team, and they are still 0-5 at home. The Texans have lost 10 straight, but they have lost six in a row by seven points or less. Houston had a lead late in the fourth quarter against the Patriots last Sunday, but New England kicked a pair of late field goals to come from behind and win 34-31. Ben Tate had a big game, running for 102 yards and three TDs on just 22 carries. He should be in for a big night against the Jags, who allow an average of over 130 rushing yards per game (29th in the NFL). Prior to last week's loss to the Patriots, the Texans owned the league's best pass defense, and ranked first in the NFL in total defense. The Jags only scored 13 points in Houston two weeks ago, but the Texans couldn't get anything going on offense in the 13-6 loss. I'm counting on a better performance from Houston on the road here. Take the Texans. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-05-13 | Louisville v. Cincinnati +3.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Cincinnati Bearcats.
The mighty Louisville Cardinals are 10-1, and they rank 3rd in the nation in defense, allowing an average of just 11.4 points per game. As impressive as that sounds though, they've only played one team currently ranked in the top 25, and they lost that game on their home turf - 38-35 to UCF. Cincinnati has won six straight, and they are undefeated at home (5-0). Both teams have played much of the same opponents, and it's quite obvious that Cincinnati has come away with more impressive results in recent weeks. The Bearcats have won decisively on the road against Rutgers and Houston the last two weeks, two teams that gave Louisville a tough time at home. Teddy Bridgewater was considered a Heisman candidate earlier in the season, and the Cardinals quarterback has thrown 25 touchdowns and just three interceptions. He's been rather lackluster the past three weeks though, with just two TDs and an INT. Bridgewater will face a Top 10 defense for the first time this season, and he could be in for a rough game on the road. Louisville defeated the Bearcats by just a field goal at home last year, yet they are giving up more than three points on the road this time around? I expect the home team to win this game outright, and getting points is just a bonus. Take Cincy. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-02-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks -200 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
8*
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12-01-13 | NY Giants v. Washington Redskins +1.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Washington Redskins.
Now anyone who follows my picks will know I am not a fan of RGIII and the Redskins, in fact before the season started I bet on Washington to finish with fewer than eight wins. That bet is looking pretty good right now, but I think Washington has a good chance to bounce back with a win here this week. As bad as they have played defensively, the Skins have been making improvements on the defensive side of the ball. They did a great job of shutting down the 49ers running game last week, Frank Gore had just 31 yards on 13 carries. The Giants running game doesn't pose much of a threat, New York is averaging just 88 yards per game on the ground. The Giants also struggled to defend the run last week against Dallas. DeMarco Murray ran for 86 yards on just 13 carries. Alfred Morris is having a fantastic season, and he should be a workhorse here against the Giants. The Giants are 4-7, and three of those four victories came at home. New York was fortunate to string together four straight wins against below average teams, and backup quarterbacks. It's asking a lot for the Giants to win on the road this week. Take the Skins. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-01-13 | Denver Broncos -3 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 167 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.
At the midway point of the season, I was asked to make a prediction for the second half. At the time the Kansas City Chiefs were undefeated (8-0) and the hype was at an all time high. I predicted that Kansas City finish the season losing more than half of their remaining games. So far that prediction is looking good, as the Chiefs have lost 2-of-3, and they will be a big underdog at home against Denver this Sunday. Their defense was lit up by Philip Rivers last week, he threw for 392 yards and three touchdowns. It's not going to get any easier against Manning, and losing a pair of starters that account for half the team's sacks (Houston and Hali) sure isn't going to help. "Losing that caliber of players, we have to step it up, make something happen," Chiefs cornerback Brandon Flowers said. "That's what we get paid to do." The Broncos went in to New England last week, and had their way with the Patriots in the first half. Four turnovers allowed New England to get back in the game, and they were very fortunate to have completed the comeback. Alex Smith is a decent quarterback, but he's no Tom Brady. I wouldn't expect to see the Chiefs come storming back if they fall behind in the first half. Jamaal Charles might have a tough time running on this Denver defense that ranks 5th against the run, holding opponents to an average of 95 yards per game. Take Denver. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-01-13 | Atlanta Falcons v. Buffalo Bills -157 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -157 | 34 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills won't have fond memories of previous trips north of the border, they were on the wrong side of a 50-17 blowout against Seattle last year. They have lost 4-of-5 in Toronto since 2008, but it should be a different story this year. They will face a Falcons team that has really struggled all season, and Matt Ryan has thrown four more INTs than touchdowns during a five game losing streak. The Bills defense isn't going to make Ryan's life any easier, Buffalo leads the NFL with 16 interceptions so far this season. The Falcons may be doomed if they can't stop the Bill's power running game, and Atlanta hasn't had any success defending the run this year, ranking 29th in the NFL allowing an average of 130 yards per game. Atlanta turned in a solid effort against the Saints at home last week, but I just don't think they match up well against Buffalo. Take the Bills. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-30-13 | Arizona +12 v. Arizona State | Top | 21-58 | Loss | -110 | 152 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Arizona Wildcats. Arizona is coming off an upset victory over Oregon, and the Wildcats certainly won't be lacking confidence as they get set to face Arizona State in Temple. The Wildcats have won their last two visits to Temple, including an upset as a 10 point underdog in 2011. The Sun Devils have won six in a row, but two of their last three wins have come in games decided by less than a touchdown. Arizona's defense forced three turnovers against Oregon last week, including a pair of interceptions on Marcus Mariota. It was the first time this season that Mariota had thrown an INT. Ka'Deem Carey ran for over 200 yards, and he's got seven touchdowns in his last three games. The Sun Devils are going to have their hands full trying to stop Carey. The Wildcats have lost a total of four games this season, but only one of those games was decided by more than 10 points. They held their own against USC and UCLA, and there is every reason to expect them to come to play in Temple. B.J. Denker doesn't have dazzling stats, but the one that stands out: he's thrown just four interceptions. He's done a great job holding on to the football, and that's a comforting thought when backing double digit dog. Take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-30-13 | Texas A&M v. Missouri -4 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 151 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Missouri Tigers. Johnny Manziel will be remembered as one of the greatest quarterbacks in college football history, but he's coming off one of the worst games of his career. He completed less than 40% of his attempts for just 224 yards, a TD and a pair of INTs on the road in Baton Rouge last week. The Aggies are on the road again this week, and it won't be any easier in Missouri. The Tigers rank among the nation's best, with 35 sacks and 18 interceptions on opposing quarterbacks this season. The Tigers are coming off a win on the road at Ole Miss, and they kept Bo Wallace out of the endzone, throwing for 244 yards with an INT. The Aggies have only played three games on the road so far, and they were fortunate to engineer a late rally to come from behind in Mississippi. Johnny Manziel didn't throw a single touchdown pass in that game, but did throw an INT. He was picked off three times two weeks ago at Mississippi State. The Aggies defense has really looked suspect at times this season, and allowing the bulldogs to score 41 points should sound some alarms heading into Missouri this week. There is every reason to expect Manziel to struggle, and the Aggies are likely looking at another blowout loss on the road. Take Missouri. GL Jesse Schule |
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11-30-13 | Alabama -10.5 v. Auburn | Top | 28-34 | Loss | -106 | 145 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Auburn has had a terrific season, and they find themselves with a chance to play for the SEC championship with a win at home in their final home game. They host the undefeated Crimson Tide though, and I don't like their chances of success. Auburn relies heavily on it's running game to generate offense, and they will be hard pressed to run the ball on the nation's #1 defense. Alabama played on the road at Mississippi State two weeks ago, and they held the Bulldogs to just 53 yards on 29 carries. It's worth noting that Mississippi State is one of the few teams that Auburn struggled with, needing a late TD to come from behind and win by a score of 24-20 at home. The Tigers played their final game of last season in Alabama, losing 49-0. Now there is no doubt that this year's team is better, but they have yet to prove that they can compete with true elite teams. They didn't look good against LSU on September 21, losing 35-21 in Louisiana. They needed a last minute touchdown on a Hail Mary pass to get past Georgia at home in their last game, and their defense really had no answer for Aaron Murray in that game. I've been betting on Auburn all year, but I think success has resulted in the Tigers becoming overvalued, and it's asking too much for them to compete with the best team in the country, even at home. Take Alabama. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-30-13 | Virginia Tech v. Virginia +13.5 | Top | 16-6 | Win | 100 | 145 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Virginia Cavaliers.
There is no denying that the Hokies have one of the most impressive defenses in college football, but their offense is well below average. Virginia Tech is being asked to cover a double digit spread on the road in this rivalry game versus Virginia. The Cavs have lost eight straight, but I don't expect to see them lay down here in their final home game. Virginia played a spirited game in Blacksburg last year, losing by a score of 17-14. It's hard for Virginia Tech to win big with a quarterback like Logan Thomas, who has a tendency to throw interceptions. He was picked off four time in 13-10 loss to Duke a few weeks back, and he's thrown 12 picks total this season. The Hokies are nowhere near 100% with several key injuries on both sides of the ball. Both Kyle fuller and Antone Exum are likely to miss this game, leaving Virginia Tech without two starting corners. The Cavs were able to shut down Miami's running game last week, as the Hurricanes had just 90 yards on 25 carries. They've been a lot better at defending the run than the pass, and that works to their favor here today. If they can hold their own against the Hokies running game, forcing Logan Thomas to throw the ball, it could be a disaster for the Hokies. Take the points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-30-13 | Ohio State v. Michigan +13 | Top | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 142 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Michigan Wolverines.
Michigan has lost four games this season, and all but one of those games were decided by just three points. The only exception is a 29-6 loss at Michigan State, at the beginning of this month. The Buckeyes will be a big road favorite in Ann Arbor, and I think the Wolverines can hang with OSU here. Last year these teams payed in Columbus, and it was a very close game, with the Buckeyes winning 26-21. The Public loves Ohio State, but the reality is that they have been padding their stats against weak teams. They've played close games against Iowa, Northwestern and Wisconsin, and two of those three games were at home. I don't think it's at all realistic to expect the Buckeyes to come into Michigan, and blowout the Wolverines in this rivalry game. I wouldn't be surprised to see Michigan win this game outright, but at the very least they should be able to keep it close. Take Michigan. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-29-13 | Iowa v. Nebraska -3 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -115 | 118 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Nebraska isn't a popular pick lately, and for good reason.. The Cornhuskers simply aren't a great football team. I'm going to back them in their final home game against Iowa though, because .. how good do you have to be to beat Iowa at home? Sure the Hawkeyes play solid defense, and admittedly they run the ball well, but their quarterback is a disaster waiting to happen. Jake Ruddock has been picked off 12 times this season, three of those interceptions came at home against Michigan last week. Nebraska will likely go with backup quarterback Ron Kellogg III, (I imagine soon to be known as RK3). The senior completed 20-of-34 attempts for 221 yards and a touchdown in last week's win over Penn State. He's done a good job protecting the football, with five touchdowns and just a single interception this season. As well as Iowa defends the run, Ameer Abdullah has seen elite defenses before, and he hasn't been slowed yet. He's run for at least 100 yards in 10 of his 11 games this season, with the only exception against UCLA, when he was just two yards shy with 98. The Spartans and the Wolverines couldn't stop him, and in what might be his final game in Nebraska, he should be in for another big day. Take the Cornhuskers. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-28-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -2.5 | Top | 20-22 | Loss | -125 | 62 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Baltimore Ravens.
The defending champions have struggled this season... or have they? Well not at home they haven't (4-1). The Ravens defense dominated again at home last week, holding the Jets to just a field goal on 220 yards of total offense. They registered three sacks and a pair of interceptions on Geno Smith, who was 9-of-22 for just 127 yards. They host the Steelers on Thanksgiving, and Pittsburgh has really turned things around since opening the season with four straight losses. They have won five of their last seven, one of those coming at home against the Ravens. Big Ben had a good game on the road against the Browns on Sunday, but he had thrown four picks in previous two road games, in losses to New England and Oakland. This Ravens defense is likely to cause him all sorts of problems, as they haven't been kind to opposing quarterbacks on their home turf. Ravens coach John Harbaugh used the wildcat against the Jets, and Joe Flacco has expressed his disapproval: "I don't like that stuff. ... I'm the quarterback," Flacco said. "I want to be behind the line of scrimmage, I want to be taking the snaps." Flacco has a point, the quarterback's job is to be behind the line of scrimmage taking the snaps. Last time I checked, it was the coach's job to call the plays and execute a game plan? That's something that Jon Harbaugh has done quite well, and I expect him to have his team well prepared for this game. Take the Ravens. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-28-13 | Texas Tech v. Texas -4 | Top | 16-41 | Win | 100 | 103 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas Longhorns.
Two weeks ago, I made one of me biggest bets of the season on Oklahoma State to beat Texas in Texas. They Cowboys won handily, putting an end to the Longhorns six game winning streak. The Red Raiders are a far cry from Oklahoma State though, and I think the Longhorns should be able to take advantage of this weak defense on their home turf. Texas Tech opened the season with seven straight wins, but when the schedule got tougher, they folded like a cheap suit. The Red Raiders have lost four in a row to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Baylor. Their defense has allowed an average of over 50 points in those four losses. Opponents have averaged almost 300 yards rushing in their last four games, and such an inability to stop the run is going to be tough to overcome. Texas has some injury concerns, most notably missing starting quarterback David Ash and top running back Jonathan Gray. Malcolm Brown is a capable replacement for Gray, he's scored eight touchdowns in his last four games, and should be in for a big night Thursday. Case McCoy won't be under pressure to throw the ball if the Red Raiders are unable to stop the Texas running game. I think the Longhorns will prove to be in a different class than their opponent in this game, even without a few key starters. Take the Longhorns. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-28-13 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State UNDER 52 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 53 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MISS@MISST to go UNDER the total.
The Bulldogs have played great defense in recent games, and they've seen the total go under in five of their last six overall. They limited the #1 ranked Crimson Tide to just 20 points in a 20-7 loss in their last home game, and I think we can expect to see a spirited defensive effort against rivals Ole Miss in their final home game. The Rebels have also played solid defense, and they held the #8 Missouri Tigers to just 24 points last week. Both teams have struggled offensively however, and Mississippi State could be forced to start a third string quarterback. Last week Arkansas quarterback Brandon Allen was just 10-of-17 for 114 yards, no TDs and an INT against the Bulldogs. Bo Wallace was 26-of-42 for 244 yards against Missouri last week, but failed to get in the endzone, and he was picked off by Randy Ponder. I expect these two defenses to steal the show Thursday night, and we should see a low scoring game in Mississippi. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-28-13 | Green Bay Packers v. Detroit Lions -6 | Top | 10-40 | Win | 100 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Detroit Lions (1st half)
As bad as the Lions have looked the past few weeks, I think we should see them pull it together at home on Thanksgiving against the Packers. Green Bay will start Matt Flynn at quarterback, as the third stringer looked good replacing Scott Tolzien last week at home against Minnesota. It's a whole different story though on the road in Detroit, as this Lions defense is significantly tougher than Minnesota's. You would think the Packers might want to lean on their running game with a third string quarterback under center, but that might not be an option either against the Lions #4 ranked run defense. Detroit has allowed an average of just 88 yards rushing per game this year. Matthew Stafford was throwing to the wrong team last week, and he's been a little inconsistent all year. He should be able to settle down at home, and he'll likely get some help from Reggie Bush. Given the success Bush has had, averaging 4.5 yards per carry, the Lions might want to give him a heavier workload. He's run for over 200 yards the last three weeks, despite only 41 attempts. I expect the Lions to jump out to an early lead, and I don't think we're going to see any miracle comebacks here in Detroit. Take the Lions. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-25-13 | San Francisco 49ers -5.5 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 106 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the San Francisco 49ers.
The Niners are coming off back to back heartbreaking losses, at home to Carolina, and on the road in New Orleans. They will look to turn things around in the nation's capital tonight against RGIII and the Redskins. Washington sits last in the NFC East, and they are coming off consecutive losses by a margin of 7+ points. Griffin completed 17-of-35 passes for 264 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the loss to the Eagles last week, but he was sacked four times and he was picked off by Brandon Boykin. Protecting the quarterback has been a problem for the Skins all year long, and once again Shanahan has let him take a beating in games when he should have been pulled - such as the loss to Denver. It's not going to be easy for Griffin to move the ball against this Niners defense. In the last two weeks they've stuffed Carolina's running game, limiting the Panthers to 109 yards on 31 carries, and holding Drew Brees to a single touchdown pass at the Superdome. Unfortunately for San Francisco, the Panthers and the Saints are also among the top defensive teams in the league, and they couldn't get anything going offensively. That might not be the case tonight, despite slight improvements in recent weeks, Washington ranks near the bottom of the league both against the run as well as the pass. San Fran won the last meeting in Washington by a score of 19-11 in 2011, and they've won both meetings since 2005. I expect them to make it three straight tonight. Take the NINERS. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-24-13 | Denver Broncos -1 v. New England Patriots | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -115 | 109 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.
Tom Brady might not have liked the call on the final play of Monday night's loss to Carolina, but that wasn't the play that cost the Patriots the game. It was the previous drive by Carolina, with Cam Newton taking the Panthers 83 yards, scoring a touchdown on a 25 yard strike to Ted Ginn Jr. with less than a minute remaining. If New England's defense couldn't stop Cam Newton, it's hard to imagine they will have any success stopping Peyton Manning. The Patriots are missing several keys players on the defensive side of the ball, including Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork. Their top two defensive backs were both knocked out of Monday's game in Carolina, and both (Talib & Arrington) are listed as questionable for tonight's game. The injury woes are not limited to the defense, as Amendola, Gronkowski and Vereen are all banged up, even though all three are expected to play. I hear a lot of talk about how bad this Denver defense is, and I can't help but think that is just utter nonsense. They've allowed an average of fewer than 20 points per game over the last three weeks, and they've racked up 10 sacks on opposing quarterbacks during that span. They give up a lot of passing yards, while ranking near the top of the league in run defense. It's not too hard to figure out though, opponents have been forced to pass, because nine times out of 10, Denver has opened up a big lead, winning by double digits. The Patriots are in a tough spot on a short week, with all their injuries. Take the Broncos. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-24-13 | Dallas Cowboys +3 v. NY Giants | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 105 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys.
The Giants looked about as bad as the Jacksonville Jaguars, going 0-6 in their first six games of the season. New York has since won four in row however, and the Giants are actually a favorite this week hosting the Cowboys. Buyer Beware! Those wins came against the likes of Josh Freeman, Matt Barkley, Scott Tolzien and Terrelle Pryor. Other than Pryor, the rest of those names are all backup quarterbacks that you may or may not recognize. The point is, the Giants have been piling up wins on poor teams with second string quarterbacks, and now they face a Cowboys team coming off a bye week. Dallas isn't going to be in a very friendly mood after getting shellacked by the Saints two weeks ago. I hear a lot of talk about how bad the Cowboys are, and how bad their defense is, but I think that's been blown out of proportion. Keep in mind, they've lost to the 9-1 Broncos, the 9-1 Chiefs, and the Lions in Detroit, by a combined five points. I think the Cowboys are going to win this game in rout, getting points is just an added bonus. Take Dallas. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-24-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Arizona Cardinals -1 | Top | 11-40 | Win | 100 | 104 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Colts have gone to halftime trailing by double digits in each of their last three games, but Andrew Luck was able to engineer miracle second half comebacks in two of those three games. I don't expect the Colts to be so fortunate this week, against an Arizona team that is far superior to the Titans and Texans. The Cardinals are 4-1 at home, and their only loss on home turf came against the Seahawks, widely considered to be the NFL's best team. In fact, of their four losses, three of those have come at the hands of elite teams, Seattle, San Fran and New Orleans. Carson Palmer has thrown for over 800 yards, with six TDs and just two picks, while winning his last three starts. Injuries have taken their toll on the Colts, who lost Reggie Wayne for the remainder of the season, and Heyward-Bey has been ineffective playing hurt. With Ahmad Bradshaw and Vic Ballard out, Indy's running game has suffered. Trent Richardson has done nothing since coming over from Cleveland, making the Browns GM look like a genius for dumping his salary. The Colts have played very poorly since coming out of the bye week, and I think it's going to catch up with them in Arizona today. Take the Cardinals. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-24-13 | San Diego Chargers +5.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 101 h 18 m | Show |
10*
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11-23-13 | Baylor -9.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 17-49 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Baylor Bears.
My highest rated play last week was on Oklahoma State, and it wasn't the first time I have backed the Cowboys this season. It's difficult for me to bet against them as a big home dog here, but I just don't see anyone keeping up with Baylor. The Bears boast the league's top scoring offense, along with a Top 10 defense. They've won all nine games by double-digits, including a road win over the Kansas State Wildcats. They are coming off back to back wins over previously ranked teams, both of those decided by a whopping 29 point margin. Oklahoma State only has one loss on the season, and it was an ugly one against the West Virginia Mountaineers, who the Bears beat by a score of 73-42. I do believe the Cowboys will make a game of it, but with Baylor's ability to get the quick score, it's not asking too much to expect them to win by double digits. Take Baylor. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-23-13 | Missouri -130 v. Ole Miss | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Missouri Tigers.
The Tigers come in to Mississippi with a 9-1 record, including an upset win over the Bulldogs in Georgia, and a big win at home over the Florida Gators. Their last three wins have come with their backup quarterback under center, as Maty Mauk stepped up, throwing for almost 1000 yards, 10 touchdowns and just two INTs. James Franklin is ready to make his return as the starter, coming back from a shoulder injury he picked up in the win over Georgia. The Rebels have won four straight since losing at home to Texas A&M, but they didn't look all that sharp in a home win over Arkansas two weeks ago. Bo Wallace threw for over 400 yards against the Razorbacks weak defense, but he also threw a pair of INTs. He could be in for a rough ride versus the Tigers, who lead the SEC with 34 sacks and 17 interceptions. I think the Tigers are a team on a mission, while the Rebels are vulnerable, as they've shown in previous meetings with SEC teams. Take Missouri. GL, Jesse Schule. |
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11-23-13 | Vanderbilt +3 v. Tennessee | Top | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 78 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Vanderbilt Commodores.
Tennessee is coming off three straight blowout losses, while the Commodores are heating up, coming off back to back wins over Florida and Kentucky. Josh Dobbs has struggled at quarterback for the Vols, and he hasn't thrown a single touchdown pass in the three games he's played this season. He was just 16-of-25 passing for 128 yards and an INT in the loss at home to Auburn two weeks ago. Tennessee had now answer for the Tigers running game, as they were shredded for 444 yards rushing in a 55-23 home loss. Vanderbilt's defense was very impressive in a road win at Florida two weeks ago, limiting the Gators to just 39 yards rushing on 34 attempts. They also picked off quarterback Tyler Murphy three times in the victory. The Vols are banged up, and they've been prone to turnovers and costly mistakes, and I think the Commodores should be able to take advantage of that tonight. Take Vanderbilt. GL, Jesse Schule |
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