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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-05-18 | Bucks +3 v. Pacers | 89-92 | Push | 0 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
The Bucks and Pacers go head to head for the second time in less than a week in Central Division action this Monday night . The last time they played it was a hard fought affair. Pacers managed to eek out a 103-96 win at Milwaukee despite of nearly blowing a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter. Now in the return bout, I'm expecting to the Bucks to have a good chance of returning the unsavory favor of dumping the Pacers in front of their own fans and more importantly get us the cover. It must be noted that the Bucks and their Greek Freak looked to be coming out of a mini slump when he provided his team with 35 points in a come from behind win vs Philadelphia last night . When this top tier baller is on his game, the Bucks are hard to defeat, and I'm betting he will be the catalyst for his team to cover in this spot. Yes, I know Indiana has played well of late, and off two consecutive road upsets. But in the past this has not be a good scenario for the Pacers as they are just 2-12 ATS L/14 off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog. Bucks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Bucks are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 0 days rest.Pacers are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - off a road win by 3 points or less, playing on back-to-back days are just 5-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettors. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - off a home win, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 30-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (INDIANA) - off a road win by 3 points or less, playing on back-to-back days are 4-28 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
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03-04-18 | 76ers v. Bucks +2 | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
The Bucks enter this game against the Sixer's slumping ( 4 straight losses) but they are more than capable of turning things around, and have won or tied the last five season series with Philadelphia .Each team has won once on its home court already this season . QUOTE: "We can't worry about these last couple games," Middleton said. "I know they were big games for us; we lost them, we've been through it before. Now we've just got to bounce back, pull together and show the kind of team that we are." END QUOTE. With that said, I'm expecting a big time effort here from the Dr.Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Bucks in this spot. 76ers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Atlantic. MILWAUKEE is 19-6 ATS L/25 in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last few seasons.MILWAUKEE is 84-48 ATS after 4 or more consecutive losses .aVERAGE COMPOSITE score: Bucks 99 Opp 99. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 42-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
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03-04-18 | Towson v. William & Mary +2 | 66-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Colonial Conference Tournament - Quarterfinals - Charleston, SC Play on William Mary to cover |
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03-04-18 | Cincinnati +3 v. Wichita State | 62-61 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
The 10th ranked Cincinnati Bearcats go head to head with the 11th ranked Wichita State Shockers this Sunday in a battle that I'm betting favors the road side getting points. I know that Wichita took out Cincinnati 76-62 earlier this season, on the road , but I have a great deal of confidence in the Bearcats refocusing and clawing back with some revenge here as visitors, vs a program that has lost 6 of their L/7 home finales vs a .666 or better opposition. Yes, the Shockers are a big nasty group of big young men, but the Bearcats are not easily intimidated behind the nations No.2 FG % and No.7 Rebound margin. Note: Bearcats are a perfect 7-0 SU with revenge on the road vs .850 or better opposition when their hoops program owns a .800 or better record. WICHITA ST is 5-12 ATS after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games this season. CBB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CINCINNATI) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival are 47-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. CBB Road teams as an underdog or pick (CINCINNATI) - off a road blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent off a road win are 28-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Cincinnati to cover |
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03-03-18 | Jazz v. Kings +7 | 98-91 | Push | 0 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
The Kings enter this game in a positive state of mind and momentum on their sides as they come off a home victory. Sacramento's 116-111 overtime winner over the Brooklyn Nets ended a four-game home losing streak and a five-game skid overall. The Kings will face a Utah Jazz side off a revenge win last night vs Minnesota on tired legs and susceptible to being in a letdown situation vs a team that they could easily be over looking. Note: Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win. Jazz are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - off a home win against a division rival, on Saturday games are 17-42 SU L/5 seasons for 71% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams (SACRAMENTO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 35-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover |
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03-03-18 | Nevada v. San Diego State -2 | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
Nevada is off wrapping Mountain west Conference with a blowout beat down of UNLV last time out, and will now be in a letdown spot and focused on staying healthy for the post season. Tonight against a SD State Aztecs side that plays their best hoops at home ( 12-2 SU) I expect to see a mild upset on a short chalk line, especially considering the Aztecs have revenge on board for a ugly 94-56 smack down the last time these teams played. Note: HC Fisher is 8-2 ATS in his career when seeking same season revenge of a loss of 20 points or more.SAN DIEGO ST is also a perfect 6-0 ATS L/6 in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent . SAN DIEGO ST is 6-0 ATS L/6 as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick.
San Diego State to cover |
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03-03-18 | Lakers v. Spurs -4.5 | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
The Spurs, have lost four of their past five games and seven of their last 10 trips to the hardwood, and are now in need of getting their ship righted and quickly before the post season arrives. Tonight against a Lakers side that they have revenge against for a 93-81 upset loss earlier this season, I expect Popovich and company to come out here with all guns blazing in the friendly confines of the AT & T Center where they own a 22-7 SU record . It must be noted that Popovich is a perfect 12-0 SU in his career vs Pacific division sides with revenge for a same season loss and once again looks to notch a win and more importantly a cover. Spurs are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. Lakers are 1-10 SU L/11 after playing in Miami. ( That's a place where a lot ballers go over board with extra curricular activities and hangovers for young groups like the Lakers are common.)
Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover |
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03-03-18 | Arkansas-Little Rock +21 v. UL-Lafayette | 72-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
These two sides have bi polar records , with UL Lafayette with a 24-6 mark and 14-0 SU at home and Arkansas Little Rock with a 6-24 W/L overall record. I know the Trojans may not inspire bettors but despite of their lack of success SU have been very competitive of late, with their L/4 games being decided by 4,5,2 and 4 points. This team also has a lot of road games under their belts this season, and won't be easily intimidated here. Note: Little Rock's 16 road opponents have a combined record of 274-204 (.573) as 11 of the 16 currently own winning records. Arkansas Little Rock plays a hardcore style of physical D, and go hard in the paint, which makes them difficult to play against if your a free flowing side like Cajuns. The Trojans have outscored their opponents 863-726 in points in the paint through 30 games this season, averaging 28.8 points in the key per game and accounting for 45.4% of their offensive production, and I'm betting this will be the catalyst to them getting the cover today vs a superior foe that I'm sure is over looking them. ARK-LITTLE ROCK is 18-7 ATS L/25 in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games. ARK-LITTLE ROCK is 11-2 ATS after allowing 55 points or less over the last few seasons. CBB Underdogs of 20 or more points (ARK-LITTLE ROCK) - off 3 straight losses against conference rivals, playing their 2nd game in 3 days are 51-21 ATS L/21 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Arkansas Little Rock to cover |
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03-03-18 | Boston College v. Florida State -7.5 | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
Florida State is off two straight road losses, but have played their best basketball at home this season, winning 12 of 14 games outscoring opposition sies by 14.4 ppg . The Noles desperately need to get back into the win column here this afternoon vs Boston College in their home finale. With this game also being a revenger for the Seminoles , I'm expecting we see them very motivated and in top form here. ( BC beat FSU 81-75 earlier this season) Florida States HC is 16-2 ATS in home finales when seeking revenge. FSU is also 6-1 ATS L/7 home finales and have covered 4 of the L/5 meetings here. Hamilton is 8-1 ATS off 2 consecutive road losses of 10 or more as the coach of FLORIDA ST with the combined average margin of victory coming by more than 11.4 ppg. Play on Florida State to cover |
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03-02-18 | Thunder v. Suns +8 | 124-116 | Push | 0 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
The young Suns broke an 0-for-February run with a 110-102 victory at Memphis on Wednesday and now have a little momentum on their sides as they face the Oklahoma City Thunder this Friday night in Arizona. Phoenix took a 114-100 victory over Oklahoma City seven weeks ago , and strangely enough according to my system vs system power rankings matches up well against the Thunder. Considering how the Thunder consistently play down to lower tier opponents it will not be a difficult decision to take the points with home side in this spot. Suns are 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 at home in this series. OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-16 ATS as a road favorite this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 0-11 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite this season.
NBA team vs the money line (PHOENIX) - average free throw shooting team (72-76%) against a poor free throw shooting team (69-72%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or less ) are 26-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games are 10-34 ATS L/21 seasons for a 77% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover |
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03-02-18 | Mavs v. Bulls +2 | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
Dallas has not had a good season, but has been especially bad on the road where they own a ugly record going just 7-23 SU. I know their opponents tonight the Chicago Bulls might not inspire bettors, but this young group Hoiberg has put on the floor are hungry for wins and are playing for recognition within the organization which makes them dangerous.
DALLAS is 0-7 ATS after a close loss by 3 points or less this season( lost a 111-110 heartbreaker vs the Thunder last time out) .DALLAS is 0-9 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons . CHICAGO is 10-0 ATS in home games after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more . Play on Chicago to cover |
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03-02-18 | Eastern Michigan +5 v. Toledo | 71-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan is a hoops program I have been keeping a close on eye on as this season has progressed, as this team looks to have a lot of chemistry and talent, which has translated into them up trending in my power rankings behind five straight wins , and 7 victories in their L/8 trips to the hardwood . The Eagles clinched a first round bye in the Mid-American Conference Tournament with its 16-point road win at Western Michigan last time out and must be respected in their current form.The Eagles have put up 78.2 points per contest on 52.1 field goal percentage in their L/4 games and come in here ready to send a message to Toledo before the conference Tourney starts. In Eastern's L/8 games their already staunch defense has gotten even better as the Eagles are allowing just 61.5 points per game and holding opponents to a 38.6 shooting percentage from the floor during that stretch, while forcing110 turnovers, had 43 steals, and smacked down 23 shots , which makes them very dangerous pups in their current incarnation. |
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03-02-18 | Bradley v. Drake +1.5 | 63-61 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament - Quarterfinals - ST Louis, MO Drake has won both meetings this season home and away and matchup very well vs Bradley from a system vs system analysis projection that I use exclusively for tournament action. Note: Bradley G Darrel Brown is expected to play today, but according to court side news from multiple sources is far from being 100%. BRADLEY is 0-6 ATS L/6 in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points which happened in a 78-68 road loss at Drake in their last meeting on Feb 3 of this season. DRAKE is 21-11 ATS L/33 when playing against a team with a winning record . CBB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BRADLEY) - off a home loss by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 26-55 ATS L/21 seasons for a 68% go against conversion rate for bettors. CBB Neutral court teams as an underdog (DRAKE) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite, on Friday nights are 53-20 ATS L/21 seasons for a 72 % conversion rate for bettors. Play on Drake to cover |
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03-02-18 | Northern Iowa v. Loyola-Chicago -5.5 | 50-54 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 32 m | Show | |
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament - Quarterfinals - ST Louis, MO Loyola enters the 2018 Missouri Valley Conference Championship tourney on a seven-game winning streak and are currently in top form. The Ramblers go against a N.Iowa side that they have prevailed against in five of the last six matchups between the programs.This year, Loyola swept the season series, marking the second time in the last three years it has taken both contests from UNI and once again look like a team that we want to back here. N IOWA is 3-10 ATS as an underdog this season losing SU by an average of 7.3 ppg. N IOWA is 8-23 ATS L/30 versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game and 4-15 ATS L/19 versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game .LOYOLA-IL is 10-1 ATS l/11 versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game. CBB Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LOYOLA-IL) - after 2 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (63 PPG or less) are 50-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Loyola Chicago to cover |
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03-01-18 | Nets -1.5 v. Kings | 111-116 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
This wager I'm making on this game between the Brooklyn Nets and their hosts the Sacramento Kings is based on a old cliché which focuses in on the lesser of two evils concept. In this corner we have a bottom feeder and in the other corner another perennial loser or vice versa. However, despite of my less than flattering description of these two squads, one of them according to my power rankings has a decent edge, and must be considered viable side investment options
With. Brooklyn starting to get healthy with Forwards Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (14.2 points per game) and Caris LeVert (11.7 points) returning from extended side line duty this past Tuesday and in the process producing 21 and 24 points in their first two games , respectively the Nets look very much like they have the ability to take out their opponents here as visitors. I know that the Brooklyn lost to Sacramento at home earlier this season 104-99 back on Dec 20th, but with payback on the agenda and supped up lineup , I'm expecting the Brooklyn crew to make a positive mark in a revenge scenario vs a Kings team that is just 8-20 SU at home this season. BROOKLYN is 21-9 ATS L/30 in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent. SACRAMENTO is 2-10 ATS L/12 as a home underdog of 6 points or less this season. NBA Road favorites (BROOKLYN) - an explosive offensive team (102 PPG or more ) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 110 points or more are 61-28 ATS L/21 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Brooklyn Nets to cover |
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03-01-18 | South Florida +13.5 v. Memphis | 75-51 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Memphis enters this game on a 4 game win streak, but took part in some grueling affairs vs quality opponents in those tilts, ie ( SMU, Tulane , Houston UConn) and despite of having momentum on their sides, they could easily find themselves in an emotional letdown spot vs a lowly USF hoops program I'm sure their over looking. With that said, I'm recommending we close our eyes, plug our noses and pull the proverbial trigger with extreme prejudice vs a Tigers side that will be playing without star point guard Jeremiah Martin, who was ruled out for the season with a broken foot. Martin's 18.9 points per game are currently tops in the conference. Tigers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The road team is 11-4 ATS L/15 meetings. South Florida has covered their two most recent trips to Memphis. MEMPHIS is 3-11 ATS L/14 after scoring 80 points or more dating back to last season.S FLORIDA is 12-3 ATS L/15 in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread. S FLORIDA is 48-30 ATS L/78 as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. CBB Home favorites of 10 or more points (MEMPHIS) - an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential) against a struggling team (8 PPG or worse differential), after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games are 9-32 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. CBB oad team (S FLORIDA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive losses of 10 or more to conference rivals are 109-56 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate on the blind for bettors. Play on USF to cover |
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03-01-18 | Virginia v. Louisville +4 | 67-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
This is Louisville's last home game of the season, on senior night, and will be primed and motivated for a win as they go against the No.1 ranked team in the country and the ACC the Virginia Cavaliers. Louisville has won 15 of its last 16 Senior Day games, including last year's 71-64 victory over No. 19 Notre Dame It must also be noted that Louisville has a 42-11 SU record in its conference home games over the last six years (.792) and must not be underestimated as dogs vs a top tier side. The Cardinal also looked good last time out on the road, beating a pretty good Virginia Tech hoops program by a 75-68 count, and has been cruising in to high gear offensively of late , as they have converted on 43.5 percent of their threes over the last eight games (73-of-168) and leads the ACC in three-point percentage for conference games only (.387). UofL is also 14-2 when it makes eight or more three-pointers in a game. Add to that the D, is also playing consistently as is evident by holding eight of its 16 ACC opponents to 40 percent or below shooting from the field and you have a pup here that I feel good about backing. UofL fell 74-64 at Virginia last month, but in that game the Cards despite of the DD loss were viable opponents vs the Cavs as Louisville shot 50 percent from the field , the only team that has achieved that this season against Virginia. With that said, My own projections estimate that Louisville will be able to put 61 + points on the scoreboard here tonight which is key, as VIRGINIA is just 6-15 ATS when they allow 61 to 66 points in a game over the last few seasons ( Virginia 63.9 Opposition 63.4) Play on Louisville to cover |
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02-28-18 | Texas A&M v. Georgia -1 | 61-60 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
Georgia prepares to play its last regular-season home game on Wednesday night when the Bulldogs host Texas A&M on "Senior Night" at Stegeman Coliseum. The Bulldogs continue to build momentum and bolster their postseason résumé. Georgia has won three of its last four games, including victories over projected NCAA Tournament participants Florida and No. 18 Tennessee. Georgia also looked to be in top form via a 93-82 win over LSU last Saturday. . .Georgia was No. 70 in Monday's NCAA RPI but has secured more quality victories than most of the teams ahead of the Bulldogs.UGA has 8 combined "Q1" & "Q2" wins, more than 37 teams ahead of UGA in the RPI. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is off a revenge game vs Vanderbilt last time out winning 89-81 and could easily be in a letdown spot here vs an up trending side. Previous to the Aggies win they had lost 3 straight, and still don't look to be operating with the same proficiency they did earlier this season. Note: Texas A&M has only won 2 of 10 road games this season and are fade material here according to my own projections. TEXAS A&M is 1-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. TEXAS A&M is 0-7 ATS L/7 versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game.TEXAS A&M is 2-11 ATS L/13 after scoring 85 points or more. GEORGIA is 14-4 ATS L/18 in home games versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game. GEORGIA is 10-2 ATS L/12 after 4 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more. CBB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TEXAS A&M) - excellent team - shooting 45% or better with a defense of 42% or less on the season against opponent after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent vs 37-71 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Georgia to cover |
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02-28-18 | Warriors v. Wizards +9 | 109-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
The mighty Golden State Warriors visit the Washington Wizards on Wednesday night at Capital One Arena in a game that I'm betting will be a lot closer than the linesmakers may anticipate. The Wizards in their last trip to the hardwood took 107-104 victory in Milwaukee on Tuesday for their third win in four games since the All-Star break . Washington is 10-3 without injured point guard John Wall .In these teams' first meeting, the Warriors trailed by 10 at home after three quarters, but rallied for a 120-117 win Oct. 27. No body in this league matches up well against the Warriors, but from a system vs system stand point I'm betting the Wizards have an edge despite of playing last night. Washington has covered 10 of their L/13 overall. Golden State is just 14-16 ATS on the road this season.Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. WASHINGTON is 17-7 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season.WASHINGTON is 16-7 ATS as an underdog this season. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) are just 18-44 SU L/5 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Washington to cover |
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02-28-18 | Ole Miss +11 v. Kentucky | 78-96 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Ole Miss had had a overall disappointing season, but must not be underestimated here vs their hosts Kentucky, as they have notched six wins versus RPI top 100 teams, including three against the top 50 this season. Tonight against a good but still over rated Wildcats hoops program, they look like solid investment options getting points. Keys to a Ole Miss cover here a DD dogs will come I'm betting via these key attributes: Ole Miss has taken care of the basketball this season. The Rebels have coughed up the rock only 331 times, ranking 39th nationally in fewest turnovers allowed. Averaging only 11.4 turnovers per tilt, Ole Miss ranks 42nd in the nation and owns a solid 1.3 assist/turnover ratio which ranks fourth in the SEC and 60th in the country.The Rebels also lead the SEC in rebounding in conference games, pulling down 38.2 boards per game. - Ole Miss also paces the conference with 13.1 offensive rebounds per SEC contest. Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.( the Wildcats clobbered Missouri last time out 87-66) KENTUCKY is 9-18 ATS L/27 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games dating back to last season.OLE MISS is 20-7 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points and 17-5 ATS L/22 as a road underdog of 10 or more points. CBB Underdogs of 10 or more points (OLE MISS) - off a home loss against a conference rival against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more are 121-65 ATS L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Ole Miss to cover |
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02-27-18 | Kings +12 v. Blazers | 99-116 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Sacramento despite of playing last night are viable underdogs in this spot vs Portland thanks to this line be over exaggerated by the lines-makers. The Kings lost 118-110 to Minnesota on Monday but have been competitive overall and have been in position in the fourth quarter to win their previous three contests, despite of suffering losses in those tilts. Previous to those games they beat Dallas. Note: Kings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on NO rest. The Kings have also covered 10 of their L/16 overall, while Portland has covered just 14 of 29 at home this season for sub. 500 ATS record as hosts. Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. SACRAMENTO is 36-13 ATS in road games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SACRAMENTO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a lower tier defensive team (102 PPG or more ), after allowing 105 points or more are 40-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SACRAMENTO) - poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 31-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Sacramento Kings to cover |
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02-27-18 | Miami-FL +10.5 v. North Carolina | 91-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
North Carolina may not have their full attention focused on this tilt with the Canes here this evening, as their season finale vs Duke is up next, with the No.2 seed on the line. Meanwhile, Miami after losing key Guard Bruce Brown took some time to get rolling again, but I've kept an eye on them, and they are looking like a viable up trending side that cannot be ignored as DD underdogs in this spot.Walker and Lykes have stepped up as Miami's leading scorers. Walker has averaged 13.3 points per game in the last eight contests, while Lykes has totaled 13.1 points per game over that period It must also be noted that Miami Fl has revenge on board for a ACC tourney loss to North Carolina from last season, and will be ramped up for payback vs a side that has covered just 3 of their L/19 vs an avenging foe with a 60% or better record before facing the Blue Devils. Since HC Jim Larrañaga took over at UM, the Canes are 5-5 SU against UNC, including a pair of upset wins in Chapel Hill. The teams split a pair of games last year, with Miami prevailing, 77-62, in Coral Gables, and UNC winning 78-53 in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament. The Hurricanes have won five of the last eight meetings in this series. MIAMI is 30-13 ATS L/43 as an underdog of 10 or more points.MIAMI is 26-13 ATS as a road underdog of 10 or more points Play on Miami Fl to cover |
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02-27-18 | Bulls +10.5 v. Hornets | 103-118 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
Charlotte enters this game playing some pretty good basketball at the moment, as their 4 game win streak would suggest. However, this Hornets teams is far from being consistent and slightly being over rated by the lines-makers tonight as home chalk.Meanwhile, the Bulls in a rebuilding season, are struggling mightily, but have been competitive enough to warrant being backed as DD dogs vs this type of team, based on my own system to system analysis . The Bulls are 2-0 against the Hornets this season and have won each of the last four meetings. Bulls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Southeast.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bulls are 4-0 ATS L/4 meetings. CHICAGO is 22-10 ATS L/32 as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. CHICAGO is 10-2 ATS against Southeast division opponents this season.CHICAGO is 10-2 ATS L/12 versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season.CHARLOTTE is 2-16 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. CHARLOTTE is 4-17 ATS L/21 after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread.CHARLOTTE is 1-9 ATS L/10 in home games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half dating back to last season. NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (CHICAGO) - horrible foul drawing team - attempting 21 or less free throws/game, on Tuesday nights are 46-15 ATS L/21 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (CHARLOTTE) - strong offensive team (102 PPG or better ) against a struggling defensive team (102 PPG or more ) after 42+ games, after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 24-57 ATS L/21 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. The Hornets are 0-18 SU/ 1-17 ATS with rest when they are off two consecutive games in which they had six-plus double-digit scorers. Play on Chicago Bulls to cover |
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02-27-18 | Akron +15.5 v. Buffalo | 68-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Buffalo has had a good season, from a SU perspective but the lines-makers are continually over estimating them, as is evident by them having failed to cover 8 of their L/9 games overall. With Akron entering this game with revenge for a ugly 87-65 set back at home back on Jan 9 of this season, I expect they come out on a mission and are subsequently a lot more competitive this time around , and make it 3 straight covers here as visitors. Note: Buffalo scored 108 points against Ohio on Saturday afternoon, its most ever in a MAC game and despite of this being Seniors night and an opportunity to capture the No.1 seed in the conference tourney, the Bulls should experience a natural let down and a reversal to their mean average output . Akron last time out 64-62 to Miami O, but Since the start of the 2004-05 season, the Zips have been one of best teams in the nation when it comes to rebounding after a loss. Excluding season-ending losses, Akron is 99-42 (.702) following a loss.The Zips have posted a 48-27 mark (.640) in the last 75 games against the MAC East dating back to the start of the 2012 league schedule. BUFFALO is 1-7 ATS L/8 versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game. BUFFALO is 2-14 ATS L/16 after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games. BUFFALO is 1-7 ATS after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite this season. Play on Akron to cover |
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02-26-18 | Rockets v. Jazz +2.5 | 96-85 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Houston has averaged 123 points during a current 12 win streak. However, the Jazz are a side that can present any team in the NBA some problems in their current form after winning 12 of their last 13 games. The Jazz have also held 10 of its last 13 foes below 100 points and deserve respect here in their own back yard. After playing last night, I expect the Rockets to be on tired legs and for the high altitude of Salt Lake City to be hard on them. Note: Houston is just 2-8 ATS L/10 with no rest, while the Jazz are 7-3 ATS as home dogs this campaign. Utah has been winning SU but not covering spreads regularly.... However, HC Snyder is 8-0 ATS L/8 in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games. NBA teams (HOUSTON) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in February games are 51-93 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 65% for bettors on the blind. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, playing on back-to-back days are 39-78 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 67% for bettors. NBA Home underdogs (UTAH) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 103-60 ATS L/5 seasons L/21 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Utah to cover |
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02-26-18 | Pacers v. Mavs +3 | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Tonight's Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks game features two teams operating at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum. Indiana has won 4 straight, while, the Mavericks are on a four-game losing streak . The Mavs have only notched 3 wins in their L/14 overall but Nine of the Mavericks' last 14 losses are by single digits, and they must not be underestimated as home dogs in this spot. DALLAS is 13-5 ATS L/18 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season. Mavericks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central.Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest. The Pacers are 0-13 ATS/SU L/13 when the line is within 3 of pick off a win as a favorite facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.50 and it is after the All-Star break. losing SU by an average of 9.5 ppg. Play on Dallas to cover |
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02-26-18 | Magic +10.5 v. Thunder | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
Orlando enters this tilt on a 5 game losing streak, but they have been competitive in their L/15 trips to the hardwood covering 10 times and only twice during that span have lost by more than 10 points. The Magic also beat their hosts tonight the Thunder earlier this season by a 121-108 count and actually matchup well against them from a system to system standpoint. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City despite of their top tier talent, have been largely inconsistent this season. This unbalanced basketball is exemplified on the ATS board where the Thunder have covered only 3 of their L/8 games. Tonight the up and down Oklahoma City hoops team now find themselves in a precarious spot as they enter this game in an emotional letdown mode after getting slapped around by Golden State 112-80 last time out and are susceptible to a down effort. Orlando is 4-1 ATS L/5 meetings in this series and have covered 5 straight here in Oklahoma City. OKLAHOMA CITY is 0-10 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-12 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-20 ATS L/26 versus struggling defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46%or more this season. Magic are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.Thunder are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 home games. NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (ORLANDO) - lower tier rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 30-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a huge blowout loss by 30 or more have won SU 23 of the L/33 opportunities. NBA Home favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a bad team (25 to 40%) are 20-48 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Orlando to cover |
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02-25-18 | 76ers v. Wizards -2 | 94-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
I have this way of going against the grain from time to time, and that's what I'm dong here this Sunday as I fade a 76ers team that owns the Eastern Conference's longest current winning streak ( 8 games) . Meanwhile, the Washington Wizards are 8-3 in its last 11 despite of playing without key cog John Wall to a knee injury are viable opponent for NBA opponents here at home in DC. The Wizards won three straight road games before getting smacked around by a 122-105 loss to the Charlotte Hornets on Friday, but will be now be ready for a bounce back performance on their own home floor. Note:WASHINGTON is 8-0 ATS L/8 in home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. It must be noted that the Wizards seem to play their best hoops against top tier teams and have recent wins vs Oklahoma City, Toronto, and Cleveland and I'm betting the young Sixer's are next on their hit list. Washington has won the last seven home meetings with Philadelphia and 20 of the last 26. WASHINGTON is 15-7 ATS L/22 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots this season. NBA Home teams (WASHINGTON) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 80-39 ATS L/21 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Washington Wizards to cover |
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02-25-18 | Penn State v. Nebraska -1 | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
The Nebraska men's basketball team looks for its 22nd win of the season on Sunday afternoon, as the Huskers host Penn State on Senior Day.The Huskers enter the final weekend of the regular season winning nine of their last 11 games and seven of its last eight .The Huskers are currently in a strong position to earn one of the four double-byes for the Big Ten Tournament next week at Madison Square Garden so you can imagine the energy that they will bring to the court tonight in a packed house supporting them. I know Penn State will also be hyped up as they fight for its postseason life, as the Nittany Lions look to bounce back from a 73-64 loss to Michigan, but this type of environment is not a good opportunity for them to get things rolling in the right direction. Add to that its payback time , as Penn State took a 76-74 OT win over the Huskers on Jan. 12 which will give the Huskers added inspiration. Penn State is 0-7 ATS L/7 as road dogs vs opposition with a .800 record or less opposition. Nebraska is 17-2 ATS L/19 overall. NEBRASKA is 10-1 ATS L/11 when playing against a team with a winning record .NEBRASKA is 10-1 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season.NEBRASKA is 12-0 ATS L/12 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game . Tonight I'm betting the catalyst to a Nebraska victory will come behind a defense that has buoyed them this season . The Huskers are third in field goal defense (.412) in conference play and have held 12 of their last 15 opponents under 45 percent shooting. Nebraska also leads the Big Ten in 3-point defense in conference play, holding opponents to 30 percent shooting from the land of the trey. Note: Nebraska is 15-1 SU at Pinnacle Bank Arena this season with the only loss coming in a one-point loss against a strong Kansas program back on Dec. 16. Overall it must be noted that this team forte also lies with the fact that they have a never say doe attitude as is evident by looking at Nebraska's six losses dating back to Dec. 9, NU lost twice in the last 30 seconds (vs. Kansas, at PSU) and three others where NU was within a point in the last four minutes (at Creighton, at No. 13 OSU, at Illinois). Nebraska is 6-1 in Lincoln all-time against the Nittany Lions and have won and covered 5 straight at home in this series. Play on Nebraska to cover |
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02-25-18 | Colorado State +17 v. Nevada | 83-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
CSU has had a down season thanks in part to having to reignite their lineup after losing two of last year's five starters, including Mountain West Player of the Year Gian Clavel and First Team All-MW forward Emmanuel Ombogo. Meanwhile, Nevada looks like a big dance candidate, and are being made big chalk here in a contest that will see two sides playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum. With that said, and despite of the W/L discrepancies the Rams behind interim HC Jase Herl are still capable of covering this slightly bloated number as road dogs according to matchup system vs system analysis . Note: Colorado State in their first meeting in this series went back and forth with Nevada but came out on the short end of a 76-67 loss, Feb. 3 and get the nod to cover in this spot. NEVADA is 2-10 ATS L/12 as a home favorite of 15.5 to 18 points . COLORADO ST is 20-9 ATS L/29 versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game . CBB Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (COLORADO ST) - off a home loss against a conference rival against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more are 111-58 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Colorado State to cover |
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02-24-18 | San Diego State v. San Jose State +13 | 71-59 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
San José State suffered a 36-point, 85-49, loss to San Diego State earlier this season on January 9 inside Viejas Arena and now have revenge on board. The Aztecs came out flying in that tilt, vs a team that upset hem last season. Despite of San Jose States dismal record they have played much better ball of late from a ATS perspective cashing 5 of their L/7 for their backers. Last year the Spartans upset the Aztecs 76-71 here at home, and I'm betting they will be competitive in this spot again. SAN JOSE ST is 11-2 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season and 6-0 ATS at home using the same total perimeters. SAN DIEGO ST is 3-13 ATS L/16 after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite. Update: SD State - F Malik Pope is OUT Saturday vs San Jose State ( Suspension )- averages 26 min a game - and 12.7 ppg . CBB Underdogs of 10 or more points (SAN JOSE ST) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) after 15+ games are 38-13 ATS L/21 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on San Jose State to cover |
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02-24-18 | Auburn v. Florida -2 | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
Florida has lost three straight in Southeastern Conference play, all in closely contested affairs, as well as six of the last eight, and on the brink of playing itself out of the NCAA Tournament picture . Those three losses came by a combined 11 points, and the three opponents converted at 80.3 percent. With that said , I'm betting they come into this tilt in desperation mode, which I'm betting we will see this Gators hoops group at their best vs a Auburn program they have beaten 11 straight times here at home dating back to 1997 and 23 of the L/26 times home and away. Meanwhile, Bruce Pearls hoops kids, are off a revenge win vs Alabama last time out, and could easily be in a letdown situation here against a hyped up group. Florida is 10-5 at home this season, while 3 of Auburns 4 losses this season have come on the road, and I'm betting on a 4th loss in this spot. FLORIDA is 34-14 ATS L/48 after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. CBB underdog (AUBURN) - after 2 or more consecutive overs, an explosive offensive team (76 or more PPG) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG) are 72-116 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Florida to cover |
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02-24-18 | Santa Clara +19.5 v. St. Mary's | 40-67 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
The Broncos are value line dogs here, and have been playing some good hoops of late, despite of having their three-game winning streak snapped on Thursday with a home loss to Loyola Marymount on Senior Night losing by 1 point 65-64..Over the last four games, Santa Clara is shooting 49.0 percent from the floor making them dangerous DD dogs in their current form . Meanwhile, The No. 22/20 Gaels are set as the No. 2 seed in next week's WCC Tournament and have very little left to play for other than staying healthy. ST MARYS-CA is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games when playing against a lower tier team (Win Pct. 20% to 40%).ST MARYS-CA is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games on Saturday games.ST MARYS-CA is 2-10 ATS L/12 when playing with one or less days rest this season. St.Marys is 15-1 SU at home this season but have only covered four times. CBB Home favorites of 10 or more points (ST MARYS-CA) - after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers are 15-50 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Santa Clara to cover |
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02-24-18 | Louisiana-Monroe +6 v. Troy State | 67-73 | Push | 0 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
LA Monroe enters this game having won and covered 5 straight and 7 of their L/8 and are not an easy out for any team in their current top tier form. Meanwhile, their hosts Troy State have lost 2 straight, and despite of being 9-4 at home this season are just .500 vs the spread. LA Monroe is very confident at the moment, and have a recent history of playing Troy very tough covering the L/4 meetings in this series including a win and cover in their L/visit here and get the nod again. LA-MONROE is 8-2 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season. LA-MONROE is 6-0 ATS L/6 versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season.TROY is 3-12 ATS L/15 in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game .TROY is 3-12 ATS L/15 in home games after a game where they covered the spread which happened last time out. CBB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA-MONROE) - hot team - covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread, playing with one or less days rest 53-22 ATS L/21 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on LA Monroe to cover |
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02-24-18 | Kansas +2 v. Texas Tech | 74-72 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
This version of Kansas may not be on the same level of Villanova or Virginia , but believe me when I say this is still a top tier team with plenty of pedigree which is backed by the experience of one of the best coaches in basketball Bill Self. Today in revenge mode for their worst loss in the Bill Self's tenure at this school in home games ( 85-73), I expect payback to be at the forefront of this battle vs Texas Tech. Note: Kansas has never been swept in a same season series by any Big 12 conference opponent, while the Red Raiders are just 2-14 ATS as chalk vs a side with revenge from a 10 point or more loss . KANSAS is 20-9 ATS L/29 in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game . KANSAS is 11-3 ATS L/14 in road games versus excellent teams - shooting 45% or better with a defense of 42% or better. CBB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KANSAS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival are 44-18 ATS L/21 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Kansas to cover |
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02-24-18 | James Madison +2.5 v. Delaware | 66-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
The Cardinals visit Blacksburg, Va. to face the Virginia Tech Hokies . My power rankings suggest these teams are evenly matched and is indicating value with taking James Madison in this spot. In their first meeting this season Delaware won 61-60 and in their final matchup last year another 1 point deficit saw Delaware win 58-57. I will not be surprised at all if this is also a one possession tilt, favoring the road dog to cover. JAMES MADISON is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog or pick this season. CBB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JAMES MADISON) - good free throw shooting team (69-73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 15+ games are 70-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on James Madison to cover |
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02-24-18 | Villanova -7.5 v. Creighton | 83-89 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
Villanova enters this road game vs Creighton after having defeated and annihilating DePaul 93-62 on Wednesday evening in full big dance dress rehearsal mode. With that said, I expect the Wildcats will be ready to crush another hoops program. I know Virginia is ranked No.1 in the national polls, but according to my own power rankings systems Villanova is numero uno, and viable single digit road favs against almost any team in the country including Creightoin. VILLANOVA is 8-1 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists/game this season.CREIGHTON is 4-12 ATS L/16 versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots. VILLANOVA is 15-4 ATS /19 after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent.CREIGHTON is 1-7 ATS as an underdog this season with the average margin SU loss coming by 13 ppg. The Wildcats are 8-1 ATS L/9 as road chalk with 3 or more days rest vs sides like the Blue Jays off back to back su/ats wins vs opposition with revenge. Villanova is 6-0 ATS L/6 in this series. CBB Road teams as an favorite or pick (VILLANOVA) - in a game involving two 3 point shooting teams (20/game or more ), after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent are 55-23 ATS L/21 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Villanova to cover |
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02-23-18 | Spurs +3.5 v. Nuggets | 119-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
The San Antonio Spurs went into the all star break losing five of their last six games and now the pundits are jumping off the band wagon. I'm saying not so quick. This franchise has just to much pedigree and experience to be dismissed so easily and must be respected here tonight as well rested road underdogs. I know the experts are currently in love with the Denver Nuggets, after having won nine of their last 12, but this is still a team that has proven itself inconsistent and needs a little more positive momentum to be looked upon with such fondness from the media. I understand we live in the world of instant gratification and what have you done for me lately attitude, but I'm still a believer in Popovich and company and that get my backing here tonight . The Nuggets did beat the Spurs in their last meeting on Feb 13 by a 117-109 count, but the Spurs are 8-3 SU/ATS with same season revenge in this series, and his Spurs are 11-3 SU when playing on 6 or more days rest. Spurs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.Nuggets are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Spurs are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings in Denver. NBA Favorites (DENVER) - an excellent offensive team (102 PPG or more ) against a struggling defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 59-104 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 64% for bettors on the blind. Play on San Antonio to cover |
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02-23-18 | Ohio State v. Indiana +2 | 80-78 | Push | 0 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
Ohio State has had a tremendous campiagn, and are the surprise team of the Big 10, but Archie Miller's Indiana has expentionally shown imporvement as this season has progressed and must not be underestimated here as home dogs. Note: HC Miller is 5-0 ATS as a home dog in conference action.In the last 5 games, IU is shooting 51.9% from the field and 43.2% from beyond the arc, while holding opponents to 38.4% shooting from the field and 29.9% from the land of the trey. |
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02-22-18 | Pepperdine +20 v. St. Mary's | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
St.Mary;s thanks to their great record and superiority over most teams in this conference are been made huge favs on a consistent basis, but a lot of times the line is slightly bloated and offer value for advantage players. I know Pepperdine has had a down season, and are banged up , but they are more than capable of covering here tonight, behind Colbey Ross who has set the Waves freshman record for assists in a season. The top tier freshman in the WCC in both scoring (14.5, seventh overall) and assists (5.6, second overall, 35th nationally)is coming off a 21-point effort at Gonzaga. ST MARYS-CA is 2-9 ATS L/11 in home games when playing against a team with a losing record.ST MARYS-CA is 0-6 ATS L/6 as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points over the last 2 seasons. ST MARYS-CA is 0-6 ATS l/6 in home games off a road win by 10 points or more and is 1-8 ATS l/9 in home games after playing a road game ( The Gaels beat Portland last time out 73-61) Home favorites of 10 or more points (ST MARYS-CA) - after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers are 15-48 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Pepperdine to cover |
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02-22-18 | UCLA v. Utah -3.5 | 78-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
UCLA enters this tilt vs their hosts Utah having won two straight and six of its last seven games dating back to Jan. 25. While recording a 14-2 home record, the Bruins are just 2-5 SU overall in road games this season (2-4 in Pac-12 road games) and despite of their current level of play are fade material vs this type of quality opponent on the road. Add to that Utah currently on a 4 game win streak got clobbered and embarrassed by the Bruins 83-64 six weeks ago and you have a very motivated side to back in this spot. UCLA is 6-15 ATS L/21 in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games . Alford is 1-9 ATS in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season as the coach of UCLA.
CBB A road team (UCLA) - after scoring 75 points or more 4 straight games, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season are 26-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Utah to cover |
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02-22-18 | Charlotte +19 v. Western Kentucky | 55-93 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Charlotte has had a down season, and are currently on a 12 game losing skid, but they have been competitive lately, and during this ugly run have only once lost by more than 19 points. Earlier this season, WKU defeated Charlotte, 73-63, in Halton Arena, (January 13), and my projections estimate a 14 point win here for Western Kentucky in the rematch, which gives us very good value with the underdog in this spot. CHARLOTTE is 6-0 ATS L/6 vs. teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents after 15+ games over the last few seasons. CBB Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - off a home loss against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 88-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Charlotte to cover |
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02-22-18 | Rice +6 v. Florida Atlantic | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
These two struggling College Hoops programs are sides that actually matchup fairly evenly despite of the home sides superior record. Make no mistake Rice is a team with very few positives attached to them, but from a systems stand point and according to my cross reference rankings are capable pups vs this type of opponent. My own projections have made Florida Atlantic 4 point chalk here, thus giving us underdog value on the line . FAU won the previous meeting this year on Jan. 27, 63-62, at Tudor Fieldhouse in a hard fought affair, and a rinse and repeat situation is not out of the question tonight. Rice has won its last two visits to Boca Raton. FLA ATLANTIC is 2-12 ATS L/14 versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season. FLA ATLANTIC is 1-8 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games dating back to last season. RICE is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games in February games dating back to last season. CBB Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (FLA ATLANTIC) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 28-64 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors. CBB An underdog (RICE) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, a struggling team( 20% or less ) playing a team with a losing record are 45-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Rice to cover |
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02-22-18 | Wisconsin +3.5 v. Northwestern | 70-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Wisconsin has had a down season behind a very inexperienced young group, but according to my matchup analysis are solid competition for what my power rankings suggest is an over rated Northwestern program.Wisconsin has won 15 of the last 20 SU against the Wildcats overall, but NU won an earlier match-up this season, 60-52, at the Kohl Center and now with revenge on board for the Badgers. I,m betting we will get a motivated effort from them here vs a Chris Collins team that is just 5-10 ATS L/15 at home vs avenging Big 10 opposition . Note: The Badgers have won 5 of their last 6 trips to Evanston. . Note: Over the last two games, Wisconsin held Purdue (-29.5) and Minnesota (-13.5) to an average of 21.5 points below their season scoring averages. Winners of three of the last four, Wisconsin is my choice here tonight. CBB Road teams as an underdog or pick (WISCONSIN) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home win by 10 points or more are 161-106 ATS L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Wisconsin to cover |
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02-21-18 | San Jose State +22 v. Nevada | 67-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
San José State travels to Reno this Wednesday to face the Mountain West leading No.24-Nevada Wolf Pack. The last time these teams played the Wolfpack took out the Spartans by a 71-54 count. However, San José State played one of its best halves of the season allowing the Wolf Pack to 26.7 percent shooting and took a 26-24 lead into halftime, before succumbing in the 2nd half vs an extremely experienced and talented side. However, now with a blueprint in hand on how to compete with the Pack I'm betting San Jose State will be very prepared for the rematch. It must also be noted that despite of the DD loss, in that above mentioned game that it was just two-possession game with under five minutes to play in the second half. With that said, lets take the points. NEVADA is 7-19 ATS /26 versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 8+ points/game .SAN JOSE ST is 8-2 ATS after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds this season.
Play on the San Jose State Spartans to cover |
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02-21-18 | Alabama v. Auburn -7.5 | 71-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
Bruce Pearl has assembled a pretty darn good group here at Auburn, and despite of some round about accusations about how he has done it , the fact still remains that this a up trending hoops program that must be respected . Here tonight in a big time rivalry , I expect the Auburn to be ready to bring down the hammer, vs a side that upset them earlier this season, by a 76-71 count, and that is in a let down scenario after a hard fought 81-71 loss to Kentucky this past weekend. Note: Auburn is a perfect 7-0 ATS vs teams off a loss this season. I know the Tigers also lost last time out, 84-75 to South Carolina in a surprising upset, but in the Tigers only other three losses this season, they came back and rebounded in their next game in explosive fashion cashing all three times, with a double-digit victories. Tigers are shooting 48 percent and averaging 89.1 points per game at home this season. They have won 12 of their 14 home games by double digits. Rinse and repeat here tonight. Auburn is 13-4 ATS l/17 at home in this series and have won and covered the two most recent games here at home. Pearl is 21-10 ATS as a home favorite or pick as the coach of AUBURN. AUBURN is 16-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season and have covered 8 of their L/10 vs above .500 squads.AUBURN is 12-1 ATS after a combined score of 155 points or more this season.AUBURN is 6-0 ATS L/6 after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Play on Auburn to cover |
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02-21-18 | Fordham +17 v. Davidson | 52-76 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
According to my own projections this line is slightly bloated thus giving us value with the underdog Fordham. Recently Fordham has shown some life, and despite of a overall dismal record are 3-3 in their L/6 games, upsetting Umass, Duquesne and George Mason. Look for a rejuvenated Fordham team that got clobbered by Davidson back on Jan 14 at home to come out here looking to get some respect and be much more competitive . Note: Fordham leads the league, and is sixth in the nation, in steals with 243 (9.3/game) and can be a pesky side to play against , especially for free flowing sides like Davidson. CBB Road teams as an underdog or pick (FORDHAM) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive losses of 10 or more to conference rivals are 102-52 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. CBB Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (FORDHAM) - a terrible offensive team (63 or less PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after allowing 80 points or more are 90-43 ATS L/21 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Fordham to cover |
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02-21-18 | Georgia Tech +17.5 v. Virginia | 54-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Virginia the No.1 ranked team in the nation, has some pretty big spreads attached to their favorite status , which in turn offers up the occasional line value on their underdog opponents. Tonight that's exactly the situation.The Cavaliers have clinched a double-bye in the ACC Tournament and will be out just looking to stay healthy as we get loser to tournament time, thus giving us value with a program that has cashed 14 of their L/20 as road underdogs in this series. Note: Fourteen of Georgia Tech's contests this season have been decided by 10 points or less, including six ACC games, and they were not decided until the final few minutes. Tech has played nine games decided by five points or fewer or in overtime, most for any ACC team other than Florida State (10). GEORGIA TECH is 21-10 ATS L/31 versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game over the last few seasons. CBB Home favorites of 10 or more points (VIRGINIA) - after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers are 15-48 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors, CBB Road underdogs of 20 or more points (GEORGIA TECH) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off 2 consecutive losses of 10 or more to conference rivals are 45-16 ATS L/21 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Georgia Tech to cover |
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02-21-18 | Duquesne +12 v. St Bonaventure | 67-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Duquesne goes to Olean, N.Y. to battle St. Bonaventure this Wednesday night. St.Bonnie might be susceptible to a letdown situation here after a big time 77-74 win over #16 (AP) Rhode Island this past Friday. SBU barely got by Duquesne in their first meeting 84-81 win and I'm betting covering won't come easily this time around either. ST BONAVENTURE is 20-35 ATS L/55 as a home favorite of 10 or more points. ST BONAVENTURE is 0-6 ATS L/6 after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread. Duquesne has cover 12 of their L/18 visits here and 2-0 ATS in their to most recent trips to Olean. Six of the past nine overall meetings in this series have been decided by four or fewer points. CBB Road underdogs of 10 or more points (DUQUESNE) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less against opponent off 2 straight wins against conference rivals are 38-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Duquesne to cover |
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02-20-18 | Northern Illinois +10 v. Ball State | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
Despite of N.Illinois experiencing a down season, they are being underestimated here according to my own player to player matchup systems analysis and we have value taking the dog on this line. NIU I'm betting will ride the momentum from its 75-67 upset victory over Western Michigan this past Saturday and keep the flow going here today against a team they have circled for payback for two losses they suffered to Ball State last season. It must be noted NIU is 5-0 ATS as DD dogs here as visitors and 6-1 ATS with revenge. Meanwhile, Ball State is in a emotional letdown situation after a huge battle that they won vs Toledo on the weekend, and could easily be flat here tonight against a team that I'm sure they are over looking. BALL ST is 12-29 ATS as a favorite over the last few seasons. BALL ST is 2-11 ATS after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better. CBB road team (N ILLINOIS) - off an upset win as a home underdog against opponent off a home win scoring 85 or more points are 34-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Northern Illinois to cover |
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02-20-18 | Creighton +5.5 v. Butler | 70-93 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Creighton is 19-8 this year (8-6 BIG EAST) in has played a hard core nine games against ranked opponents. Six of the Jays losses were vs teams that were ranked at the time (No. 22 Baylor, No. 15 Gonzaga, No. 23 Seton Hall, No. 10 Xavier, No. 1 Villanova, No. 5 Xavier), despite of those setbacks the Bluejays are also one of 27 teams nationally with three wins over top-25 teams and must not be underestimated as dogs against any opponent, especially against Butler program that they matchup well against.( blue Jays are 4-1 SU/5 meetings and have covered 7 of the L/9 overall in this series) Creighton has won the last three games by scores of 75-64, 76-67 and 85-74.Creighton has shown the ability to slow down Butlers top offensive threat in the recent past, Kelan Martin (20.7 ppg. this year) , as the star forward has not shot well at all while going head to head by reigning BIG EAST Defensive Player of the Year Khyri Thomas. This I'm betting will be the key to a Creighton cover tonight. Note: I know Creighton lost last time out to Marquette, but that's a good omen for us here , as Creighton is 7-0 this season in the game immediately after a loss, outscoring their opposition 87.9 - 63.6 and outrebounding the opposition 40.1 - 32.9.McDermott is 17-6 ATS L/23 off a home loss as the coach of CREIGHTON. Creighton is averaging 85.4 points per game this season (sixth nationally), shooting 50.2 percent from the floor (10th nationally), and 37.9 percent from three-point range. CU also owns a 1.63 assist/turnover ratio (fourth nationally) to date, and a +1.9 rebound margin.Creighton's 14 games this season making 80 percent or better at the line ranks tied for fifth nationally, and tied with Butler for first among all major conference teams and gives them a must needed edge here on the road. CREIGHTON is 8-1 ATS L/9 on Tuesday nights over the last couple of seasons.CREIGHTON is 12-4 ATS L/16 after allowing 80 points or more .CREIGHTON is 21-8 ATS L/30 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread. BUTLER is 0-7 ATS l/7 versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 84+ points/game after 15+ games dating back to last season. Play on Creighton to cover |
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02-20-18 | Rhode Island -7 v. La Salle | 95-93 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Rhode Island ranks very high in power rankings polls so I have no problem what so ever recommending we lay the lumber here with them here on the road vs what is currently a far inferior hoops program LaSalle. Rhody has won two straight and seven of the last eight meetings, including an 74-62 victory on Jan. and has won four straight in this series at Gola Arena. Despite a loss at St. Bonaventure two games back, Rhode Island has remained firmly in both national polls for a fifth straight week, ranking No. 18 in both the Associated Press and College Basketball Coaches Poll. With this game coming late in the season, Rhode Island seeking a NCAA tourney bid will not over look their opponents tonight and instead come out here looking to make a statement. LASALLE is 0-6 ATS L/6 after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season. RHODE ISLAND is 10-3 ATS L/13 when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season.LASALLE is 1-11 ATS L/12 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game and is 2-11 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. CBB home team (LASALLE) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite are 47-81 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Rhode Island to cover |
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02-20-18 | Toledo +1.5 v. Eastern Michigan | 79-85 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm betting on Toledo to bounce back from Saturday's 99-71 defeat at Ball State when it travels to Ypsilanti, Mich to play Eagles.It was the Rockets only second loss in 13 games. Toledo swept the Eagles in last seasons series with 73-57 victory in the Glass City and a 60-56 win in Ypsilanti. Meanwhile, E.Mich is off a road win vs Central Michigan and have won 4 of their L/5 , and despite of a winning overall record are just 2-2 in their L/4 home games and I'm betting the 3rd loss in their L/5 is on the horizon. From a matchup perspective the Rockets D, has allowed opponents to shoot 45.2 % on the road and E.Michigan has shot, 48.2 at home. My won projections, suggest that E. Mich should make between 40% to 46% of their shots here tonight, which is a good omen, considering the Rockets are 8-0 ATS in road games when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game. It seems that Toledo thrives against teams like this when pushed into a shootout scenario where both teams are projected to score 70 points or more , which the linesmakers are expecting . Look for Tre'Shaun Fletcher who ranks second in scoring at 19.7 ppg, and Jaelan Sanford who is seventh at 16.9 ppg to be the catalysts behind a Toledo victory. |
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02-18-18 | Stanford -5 v. California | 77-73 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
The Stanford Cardinal enter this game against California looking for a revenge for a 77-74 upset home loss to the Bears as 7 point chalk back Dec 30. The Cardinal looked asleep at the proverbial wheel in that tilt, but will be wide awake in this spot and ready to lay down some payback. The Cardinal are 9-1 ATS L/10 with revenge in this series, and look like a viable side to back vs a Bears side that has failed to cover 7 of 9 as home dogs this season and that has lost 11 of their L/12 overall SU. |
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02-18-18 | Duke v. Clemson +2 | 66-57 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 27 m | Show | |
The Clemson Tigers are 12-0 SU at home this season, and own a No.4 ranking in the RPI and matchup very well against Coach K and company a a program that is No.10 in the same RPI rankings . Also my own numbers suggest the superior team is the Tigers and they get the nod here vs a Duke Blue Devils hoops program that have not faired all that well here at Clemson, covering just 7 of their L/19 visits.
Play on Clemson to cover |
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02-17-18 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -7 | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Mississippi State has revenge on board for a 64-58 loss in Oxford earlier this season. Both the lines-makers and myself agree that Miss State should be hefty favs here in the rematch, which translates well into what I am predicting will be a lopsided win ....as the Bulldogs are 19-3 ATS as home favs in straight up revenge victories. The Bulldogs are also 20-4 SU L/24 at home in this series and have a big edge vs a Rebs side that has nothing to play for after suffering 6 straight losses. With said I'm recommending we back the very motivated home team. QUOTE: "They have excellent guards. It's a rivalry game, so everything goes out the window. Nothing that's happened before this game matters. It's all about this game." — MSU coach Ben Howland on Ole Miss. The Bulldogs have held nine of its 13 SEC foes below their scoring average and 21 of 26 overall.Mississippi State leads the SEC and is 45th nationally in points allowed at 66.8. MSU is also 26th in the nation in field goal defense at 40.6 percent. MISSISSIPPI ST is 16-6 ATS L/22 revenging a road loss vs opponent. OLE MISS is 0-7 ATS L/7 after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season.OLE MISS is 0-6 ATS L/6 after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games this season. OLE MISS is 2-11 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. MISSISSIPPI ST is 7-0 ATS L/7 when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last few seasons. MISSISSIPPI ST is 14-3 ATS L/17 when playing against a team with a losing record . Play on Miss State to cover |
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02-17-18 | North Carolina v. Louisville -1 | 93-76 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
After a six-day break, Louisville now very well rested will return home to the KFC Yum! Center as the Cardinals face the North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday.Louisville has held eight of its 13 ACC opponents to 40 percent or below shooting from the field and I'm betting their ability to hold down opponents behind a staunch D will be the catalyst for a victory for them here tonight vs the Tar Heels. N CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. N CAROLINA is 2-9 ATS L/11 in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games dating back to last season. LOUISVILLE is 9-1 ATS L/10 after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less .LOUISVILLE is 6-0 ATS L/6 in home games after scoring 85 points or more. CBB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LOUISVILLE) - after going over the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games are 45-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Louisville to cover |
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02-17-18 | Texas Tech v. Baylor +1 | 57-59 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show | |
Baylor is currently playing their best hoops of the season, winning and cashing 4 straight and will be primed to pull off an upset vs a strong Texas Tech program. The key to Baylor’s success of late has come from the bench as they have out-scored the opposing bench 153-49 over the last 5 games. Note: BU is averaging 80.2 ppg over its last 6 Big 12 games after averaging 66.0 ppg in its first 7 Big 12 games. Baylor has been tied or leading in the final 2 minutes in 4 of its Big 12 losses, all vs. ranked teams and must be respected here on their own home floor . BU is 10-2 L/12 vs Tech at home in Waco . Baylor is 54-11 against in-state opponents since the start of the 2011-12 season We are also backing a Bears team that have revenge for a ugly loss vs the Raiders earlier this season by a 77-53 count. Note: Baylor has cashed 3 straight SU/ATS with revenge winning each time by DD and are 14-3 ATS L/17 with revenge in this series. Meanwhile Texas Tech has only covered 3 of their L/13 vs teams with revenge that they blasted by 20 or more points. Play on Baylor to cover |
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02-17-18 | Auburn -6 v. South Carolina | 75-84 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm not always a big fan of playing road chalk, but some situations warrant a wager, and this is one of them. Auburn 23-3 on the season are showing they mean business, and with a big dance ticket on their agendas, and the finish line in sight , I doubt they will overlook any opponent. Especially a South Carolina Gamecocks team that steam rolled them by a 98-69 beat-down here last season in merciless fashion. Missouri was a strong team last season, but this campaign has seen them slip and are very susceptible to being pummelled in a payback scenario by the explosive visitors. It must be noted that S.Carolina is just 4-32-1 ATS in home losses as dogs. S CAROLINA is 1-10 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots this season. AUBURN is 15-4 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.AUBURN is 11-2 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season and 6-0 ATS L/6 versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season. AUBURN is 9-0 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season.AUBURN is 8-0 ATS in road games after playing a home game this season. Play on Auburn to cover |
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02-17-18 | Indiana v. Iowa +2 | 84-82 | Push | 0 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
Indiana enters Saturday's contest winners of three straight, while Iowa has lost four in a row. The Hawkeyes have, however, not lost five consecutive games this season and I'm betting that stays intact here today. .Iowa has won eight of the last 11 meetings in Iowa City, including last season's 96-90 overtime barn burner. The Hoosiers are also just 2-7 in true road games this season \nd not the same team they are as hosts. The Hawkeyes did lose to Indiana earlier this season on road, but will be primed to pull the upset here with revenge on board. Iowa is 15-4 ATS L/19 in this series, and 5-0-1 ATS L/6 with revenge. The Hawkeyes are also 18-7 ATS L/25 as home dogs, and get the nod here to cover. Play on Iowa to cover |
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02-17-18 | Syracuse +5 v. Miami-FL | 62-55 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
Miami enters this game as weak home favs as they are just 1-5 ATS as hosts in conference play so far this season. The Canes are also still playing without key cog G Bruce Brown their second leading scorer and currently do not demand the respect they usually get when at full strength. Last season the Cuse were bumped from the ACC tourney by Miami Fl, and now with revenge at hand I'm betting we see the Orange at their very best as they also are looking for a possible big dance birth. MIAMI is 4-13 ATS L/19 as a home favorite or pick. MIAMI is 1-8 ATS L/9 in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games dating back to last season. MIAMI is 3-12 ATS L/15 versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less after 15+ games . Play on the Syracuse Orange to cover |
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02-16-18 | Illinois-Chicago -2.5 v. Green Bay | 83-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
Illinois Chicago had a 7 game win streak halted last time out at home vs Cleveland State by 86-78 count. The loss came vs a team that was explosively red hot, as the Vikings scored 33 of 48 first-half points from beyond the arc, shooting 61 percent on 18 attempts. Despite of that the Flames made a ferocious comeback, but fell short in the final 5 min, as they looked exhausted. Now with time to rest and digest what happened I'm betting they have a bounce back effort here tonight vs a Green Bay side that has lost 10 of their L/12 and must be looked at as fade material. IL-CHICAGO is 7-0 ATS L/7 off a home loss against a conference rival . WI-GREEN BAY is 1-10 ATS L/11 home games on Friday nights. UIC toppled Green Bay in the first meeting this season, 84-73, at the UIC Pavilion on Jan. 10. The Flames shot a season-high 58.4 percent from the field in that victory. IL-CHICAGO is 7-1 ATS L/8 when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 20% to 40%) this season.IL-CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS at road when the line is +3 to -3 dating back to last season. CBB Road teams as an favorite or pick (IL-CHICAGO) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3.5 PPG differential.), after a combined score of 155 points or more 2 straight games are 24-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Illinois Chicago to cover |
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02-16-18 | Northern Kentucky -1 v. Wright State | 67-69 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
Northern Kentucky comes into this game against Wright State looking for revenge for a 84-81 loss at home as 10.5 point favs in the first meeting. This tilt is also has the added importance of being a battle for first-place in the Horizon League standings. NKU is riding a five-game winning streak, its third streak of the season of at least four games., and has won 27 of its last 35 games (.771) against League opponents. It must also be noted that N Kentucky faces a side that is just 2-8 ATS as a Horizon League home dog and despite of being a quality team, are 0-3 SU/ATS vs teams with a higher win % on the season, which the Norse have. Look for what my power rankings suggest is the top team in this conference to grab the cash here tonight and get their payback. Northern Kentucky is 17th in the nation in 2-point field goal percent (57.0) and is averaging 17.0 assists per game, a mark that ranks 22nd in the nation. It also only commits 12.2 turnovers an outing, which ranks 88th nationally. Combining those two marks results in an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.40, the 25th-best in the country. HC Brannen is 13-5 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game. N KENTUCKY is 8-2 ATS in road games after playing a game as favorite this season. CBB Road teams as an favorite or pick (N KENTUCKY) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent are 77-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors . Play on Northern Kentucky to cover |
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02-16-18 | Detroit +2.5 v. Youngstown State | 94-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Detroit Mercy has dropped two tough games so far on the four-game road swing, but will look to continue a great run it holds as the Titans are riding a 10-game winning streak over Youngstown State. Detroit Mercy has also have won eight of their last nine visits to the Beeghly Center. Detroit Mercy has converted regularly from the free throw line connecting on 75.0 percent, third in the HL and 62nd in the country. YOUNGSTOWN ST is 2-10 ATS l/12 after a win by 6 points or less over the last few seasons. CBB home team (YOUNGSTOWN ST) - average shooting team (42.5-45%) against an struggling defensive team (47.5% or more ), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -6 reb/game) are 55-106 ATS L/21seasons for a 66% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Detroit Mercy to cover |
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02-15-18 | Hawaii +9 v. Cal-Irvine | 62-61 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
Hawaii enters this game against UC Irvine having lost 5 straight games. But the Rainbow Warriors have been very competitive in most games, with only one loss coming by more than 6 points. Prior to the unfortunate run Hawaii had won 4 straight, so this is a very under rated team according to my own power rankings. With Hawaii with revenge on board for a 72-58 home loss to Irvine back in November, I expect we will see the Warriors...... a side that has decidedly improved since that debacle to be viable underdogs in the rematch. I'm betting the key to us getting the cover will be the Bows ability to sink FTs , as they are converting 81% of their charity stripe attempts over the L/6 games. Anteaters are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Play on Hawaii to cover |
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02-15-18 | Oregon +5 v. USC | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
The last time Oregon faced USC they lost at home earlier this season by a 75-70 count. Now with revenge on board and the need to secure wins if they want a shot at the big dance this tilt becomes paramount for the young men from Eugene. With the Trojans off big games (losses) vs Arizona and Arizona State, I won't be surprised if the Trojans are in an emotional letdown spot here . Actually the Trojans have failed to cover 4 straight times after battling Arizona and are currently on a 3 game losing streak. It must also be noted that USC has only covered 1 time in their L/14 games as chalk of 12 points or less in this series vs the Ducks , with Oregon also amassing a solid 18-4-2 ATS mark as visitors when playing USC. The Ducks off a blowout 84-57 win vs Washington State now have momentum on their sides going into this tilt and deserve my backing as dogs. Note: OREGON is 11-1 ATS L/12 off a home win against a conference rival and is 9-1 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival. OREGON is 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games dating back to last season and a perfect 9-0 ATS L/9 in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games dating back to last season. CBB Road teams as an underdog or pick (OREGON) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home win by 10 points or more are 156-103 ATS L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Oregon to cover |
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02-15-18 | Nuggets +3 v. Bucks | 134-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
The Milwaukee Bucks have been playing decent ball since Jason Kidd was fired, but I'm still not completely sold on them going forward. Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets are also in top form and have won 5 of their L/6 overall via an explosive offense averaging more than 117.8 ppg during that stretch. The Nuggets according to my power rankings are playing their best hoops of the season and must be respected here as underdogs. Note: Denver is 15-2 ATS L/17 as an underdog in this series. From a SRS perspective Denver owns a +0.88 mark while Milwaukee clicks in at -0.18. ( SRS =Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average) With that said, we have value with taking points here. Milwaukee is just 33-67 ATS at home as chalk in non conference home tilts of late. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - off a home win, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 28-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover |
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02-15-18 | Jacksonville State +10 v. Murray State | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
JACKSONVILLE ST is 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% or more of their attempts.JACKSONVILLE ST is 8-0 ATS L/8 in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last few seasons. JACKSONVILLE ST is 8-0 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. CBB Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (JACKSONVILLE ST) - off an upset loss by 15 or more as a home favorite against opponent off a road win are 42-12 ATS L/21 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. CBB Home favorites of 10 or more points (MURRAY ST) - off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite against opponent off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 30-6 ATS L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Jacksonville to cover |
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02-14-18 | Lakers +5 v. Pelicans | 117-139 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Despite losing 130-123 at Dallas on Saturday, the Lakers are playing some very competitive basketball of late , and have won 12 of their l/17 games and have upward momentum on their sides and are up trending in my power rankings. The Lakers newly acquired point guard Isaiah Thomas came off the bench Saturday in his Lakers' debut and scored 22 points and had six assists in 31 minutes and is a very nice addition to this young team. Meanwhile, New Orleans, are still adjusting to playing without DeMarcus Cousins, and must not be over estimated in their abilities despite of upsetting Detroit Pistons last time out (118-103). It must also be noted that NEW ORLEANS is 9-22 ATS L/31 off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog . Pelicans are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Pelicans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Pacific and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Road team is 30-14 ATS in the last 44 meetings LA LAKERS are 14-6 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.NEW ORLEANS is 27-42 ATS as a home favorite over the last few seasons. Play on the LA Lakers to cover |
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02-14-18 | Clippers v. Celtics -4.5 | 129-119 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
The Clippers have surprisingly won four of their last five games and are 4-2 since a trade sent Blake Griffin to the Detroit Pistons. Needless to say the Boston Celtics will not be over looking them despite of this Clippers team going into rebuild mode. Considering both teams rosters and current systems, the head to head matchup favors the home team by 7 points according to my own numbers giving us value on a basic 5 point home advantage line. Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic. BOSTON is 20-7 ATS L/27 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season.Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 31-2 SU for a 94% conversion rate with the average margin deficit clicking in at 10.6 ppg. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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02-14-18 | Pacers -4.5 v. Nets | 108-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
The streaky Pacers look for another win before the all star break Wednesday night when they visit the struggling Brooklyn Nets The Pacers during a recent 19-game stretch (13-6 SU), are up trending in my power ranks after allowing 101.7 points and 31.2 percent 3-point shooting. Offensively, they are averaging 106.6 points and shooting 49.1 percent. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is in a downward swoon, and have lost 10 of their L/11. The average margin of defeat in the 10 losses games has been by a whopping 11.6. ppg and they are once again fde material here in this spot.
BROOKLYN is 3-13 ATS L/16 in home games after 6 or more consecutive losses . INDIANA is 23-11 ATS L/34 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days.Pacers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Pacers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings with the favorite going 5-1 ATS L/6 meetings. Indiana has won six straight from Brooklyn and 14 of the last 18 meetings. NBA team (BROOKLYN) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 19-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Indiana to cover |
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02-14-18 | Villanova v. Providence +9.5 | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Villanova's invincibility has been questioned of late, as they recently showed their actually just humans with a loss to St.John;s. With that in mind we now have a Providence team that has revenge in mind for a 89-69 road loss they suffered to the Cats on Jan 13 . I'm recommending we back a motivated team getting points in what should be a packed house. Note: Nova's Phil Booth suffered a fractured right (shooting) hand late in that above mentioned contest and has not played since. Providence is 15-6 ATS L/21 at home as dogs. PROVIDENCE is 10-1 ATS L/11 revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points. PROVIDENCE is 6-0 ATS L/6 in home games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points and 10-0 ATS L/10 with same season revenge form a loss more than 7 points. PROVIDENCE is 12-4 ATS L/16 in home games versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots.VILLANOVA is 1-9 ATS L/10 in road games after 4 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers Play on Providence to cover |
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02-14-18 | Clemson +4.5 v. Florida State | 79-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Clemson is ranked for the seventh consecutive week in the AP Top 25 poll (No. 11). Clemson is also ranked in the USA Today Coaches Poll at No. 12 and must be respected here as underdogs vs a team they are motivated to take down after suffering 2 losses to Florida State last season.Clemson’s RPI checks in at fourth nationally, while their SOS sits 21st. Note: Clemson is 17-4 ATS L/21 with revenge in this series, and a perfect 9-0 ATS as a dog of 2 points or more. In the latest KenPom rankings, the Tigers are ranked Nos. 16, 13 and 31 in overall, adjusted defensive efficiency (94.6) and adjusted offensive efficiency (115.7). CLEMSON is 8-2 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. CLEMSON is 8-1 ATS L9 after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. FLORIDA ST is 26-43 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick . Play on Clemson to cover |
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02-14-18 | Iowa +12 v. Michigan | 59-74 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Iowa can light up the board with their offense very quickly which makes them viable underdogs of 10 points or more here in this spot. Iowa has scored 50 or more second-half points six times this season, including three of its last five games and are always back door cover opportunists making them a viable side to back on a DD underdog line. The Hawkeyes have won five of the last six meetings in this series. Michigan won this season's first meeting, 75-68, in Iowa City on Jan. 2, 2018. CBB Home favorites of 10 or more points (MICHIGAN) - after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers are 45-97 ATS L/21 seasons for go against conversion rate of 68% for bettors. CBB Road underdogs of 10 or more points (IOWA) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more ) against an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 28-8 ATS L/21 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Iowa to cover |
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02-14-18 | South Florida +13.5 v. UCF | 57-72 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
USF faces UCF for the second time this season The Knights handed the Bulls a heartbreaking 71-69 loss in the first half of the season series.USF led for 29 minutes on Jan. 20, but UCF came on strong late and just slid past the Bulls. From a matchup perspective USF actually matches up well vs their opponents, and I'm betting their ability to draw fouls, and get the charity stripe will help us cover this number. As a team, the Bulls are shooting 72.4 percent (331-for-457) from the free throw line on the season. UCF is 0-7 ATS struggling pressure defensive teams - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game . CBB Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (UCF) - after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers are 43-89 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on USF to cover |
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02-13-18 | Northwestern -3 v. Rutgers | 58-67 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
Rutgers enters this home game against Northwestern having lost 7 straight games, and are fade material in their current mode . Northwestern has won 4 of their L/6 , after a lackluster effort last time out in a loss to Maryland where they shot just 33%. The Wildcats have actually been good bets of late and resilient after a loss as they are 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses. Northwestern won all three meetings with Rutgers a year ago, and are a perfect 5-0 against Rutgers since the Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten and get the nod again this Tuesday night. RUTGERS is 19-34 ATS L/53 against conference opponents. CBB Road teams as an favorite or pick (NORTHWESTERN) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team, on Tuesday nights are 69-33 ATS L/21 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Northwestern to cover |
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02-13-18 | Cavs v. Thunder -1 | 120-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Cleveland has won three consecutive games, scoring 121 or more points in each and now the pundits are all piling back on to the bandwagon. I'm a believer in the Cavaliers ability to continue their upward momentum, as well over the long haul, but I'm betting this is a bad spot for them. Meanwhile, Oklahoma city is expected to have both Russell Westrook and Carmelo Anthony back in the lineup tonight, after both sat two games with a ankle injury. Both these top tier players presence , and the positive energy involved with taking on a championship contender will have the Thunder ready to perform in what is a very tough venue for visitors to play in . Oklahoma City has won the L/2 meetings in this series home and away. CLEVELAND is 8-22 ATS L/30 revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points. CLEVELAND is 16-34 ATS L/50 versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. CLEVELAND is 4-18 ATS L/22 in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons. CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS L/18 in non-conference games this season. NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are just 13-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors. Play on Oklahoma City to cover |
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02-13-18 | Maryland v. Nebraska -3 | 66-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Maryland enters this tilt having lost 8 of their 11 road games this season, and have lost 7 of their L/11 overall, while their hosts Nebraska have won 13 of their 14 home tilts and overall are on a 5 game win streak, and looking stronger as each games passes. The one Husker home loss came to Kansas by just 1 point. Coach Mark Turgeon's Terps team has been hit by injuries, losing a pair of starters (Justin Jackson and Ivan Bender) to season-ending injuries and are at a disadvantage. This Cornhuskers team is flying under the radar with Nebraska's defense has been the key to their Big Ten success. The Huskers are third in field goal defense (.403) and held 11 of their last 13 opponents under 45 percent. Since Jan. 1, the Huskers are holding opponents to .404 shooting and must be respected here as short home chalk. Nebraska's 1.25-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio is on track to be one of the best in school history. NEBRASKA is 12-2 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots this season and have covered 7 straight under the same perimeters. NEBRASKA is 10-1 ATS L/11 versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game this season.NEBRASKA is 9-1 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season. NEBRASKA is 9-0 ATS L/9 off a win against a conference rival this season. Play on Nebraska to cover |
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02-13-18 | Western Michigan -2 v. Bowling Green | 81-83 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Western Michigan enters this road tilt vs Bowling Green playing some of their best basketball of the season, winning 4 of their L/5 games. The Broncos have been a second half team this season outscoring opponents, 1037-970 the final 20 minutes of play. WMU has scored at least 50 points in the second half four times this season and get stronger as games progress thanks to their top tier conditioning program. With that said, I'm betting as this game progresses the Broncos run over a Bowling Green team off an exhausting come from behind OT win last time out vs E.Michigan. Lay the short lumber with the road team. Since 2012, WMU is 29-13 in the month of February which is the second best record amongst NCAA Division I schools in the state of Michigan. W MICHIGAN is 15-6 ATS L/21 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%).W MICHIGAN is 24-9 ATS L/33 when playing only their 2nd game in a week and is 11-3 L/14 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite . CBB underdog (BOWLING GREEN) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less are 6-33 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Western Michigan to cover |
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02-12-18 | Suns +15.5 v. Warriors | 83-129 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
This selection is based on something I refer to as the fearless factor. Golden State is expected by all who watch the NBA to step all over the Phoenix Suns tonight in their matchup at Oakland. But the Suns with nothing to lose , completely out of a play off spot, and in deep vs the leagues defending champion, will play this game loosely and with confidence. Meanwhile, the Dubs despite of saying they want to finish this current string of games strongly before the all star break, will have problems being motivated here tonight, and have a history of playing down to lower tier teams levels. On the season Golden State is just 11-15 ATS at home, and overall have failed to cover 5 of 8 division games this season and 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
The Suns 7-2 ATS their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. It must also be noted that since the Suns acquired Elfrid Payton from Orlando at the trade deadline they should be playing at a much faster pace which was evident in Saturday's 123-113 home loss to Denver, a game in which the Suns posted season highs in field goal percentage (54.8) and points in the paint (66). I'm projecting their numbers will be better than expected here again tonight, which will result in the Suns getting the cover. GOLDEN STATE is 1-9 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins this season.PHOENIX is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games off a home loss by 10 points or more. NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (GOLDEN STATE) - excellent offensive team (102 PPG or more ) against a struggling defensive team (102 PPG or more ) after 42+ games, after a blowout win by 15 points or more. are 23-56 L/21 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover |
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02-12-18 | Baylor +2.5 v. Texas | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Baylor enters this tilt vs Texas as a very underrated Big 12 hoops program. Baylor 's offense is averaging 81.4 ppg over its last 5 Big 12 games after averaging 66.0 ppg in its first 7 Big 12 games. Despite of a lackluster road record the Bears , have been on the wrong side of the lucky charm pedestal, as 6 of their 7 losses have come to ranked teams, including 3 by one possession. Also from a head to head matchup perspective Baylor’s bench has out-scored the opponents’ bench 121-37 over the last 4 games, and the Bears had a 23-9 advantage over Texas in bench scoring when the teams met in Waco on Jan. 15 and once again look like solid dogs vs an opponent they matchup well against. Baylor has recorded more points in the paint than its opponent in 21 straight and 24 of 25 games this season. The Bears are averaging 37.8 points in the paint per game against opponents’ 26.9 paint ppg and I'm betting their ability to control the interior game will be the difference maker here again.
Play on Baylor to cover |
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02-12-18 | Knicks +11.5 v. 76ers | 92-108 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
The Knicks, who lost All-Star center/forward Kristaps Porzingis for the season to a torn left ACL last week are now looked upon as a downtrodden group that does not deserve any respect. While that maybe partially true, thanks to their overall horrid W/L record, this team still has some fight left in them as players look to solidify their standing on the team and future paydays. They always say pro sports is all about the money, and it is, so the Knicks wont stop playing hard, as very few of them on this team have any guarantees in this league going forward. The Knicks are not just going to lye down and take a nap, but instead I expect will fight even harder. Tonight, I'm betting their being under rated vs a 76ers side that despite of being a lot better than in previous seasons, is still a side that is young, with consistency still being a problem with these talented kids. . So needless to say Its a hard stretch for me to suddenly see them listed as 12 plus point favs, against anyone in the NBA even here at home .I know the Knicks played last night and the Sixer's and their fans have recently fed off the energy associated with the Eagles winning the Super Bowl, but that's now fading and when you put out that much emotional energy its sometimes hard to keep playing at a high level, especially against a beat up team like the Knicks that they are probably overlooking. With that said, I'll take a contrarian stance here and take the dogs to cover on a slightly bloated line. 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The 5 meetings in this series have seen 3 games decided by 1 point , one game by 3 , and their most recent game by 7 points. PHILADELPHIA is 4-18 ATS L/22 in home games after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots .NEW YORK is 21-10 ATS L/31 after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread.
Play on the NY Knicks to cover |
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02-12-18 | Colgate +11.5 v. Bucknell | 64-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
The top two teams in the Patriot League standings square off a what I'm betting will be a much closer game than the lines-makers expect. The Raiders have won six of their last seven games and hold down second place in the league standings with a 9-4 record. Defending champ Bucknell sits atop the standings at 11-2. I know Bucknell took the the season's first meeting 63-51 in Hamilton on Jan. 15. , mostly because Colgate couldn't get it going offensively as the Raiders finished the game shooting a season-low 27.1 percent from the field, but have converted more than 46% of their shots from the field this season. With that said, I'll write that one off as an anomaly and expect closer to their season average this time around and to be very competitive. Raiders are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. CBB Underdogs of 10 or more points (COLGATE) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more) against an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 34-11 ATS L/21 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Colgate to cover |
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02-11-18 | Washington State +15 v. Oregon | 57-84 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
WSU enters this game against Oregon ranked fifth in the nation and leads the Pac-12 with 11.3 made 3-pointers per game.The Cougars have made 12 or more 3's in 14 of their 23 games this season making them a viable dog because of the ability to rack up quickly and open the way for possible back door covers. The Cougars also rank fourth in the Pac-12 and 62nd in the country with a .380 3-point field goal percentage and must not be underestimated in their ability to cover this number. Note: WSU has trailed at halftime in 14 of its games this season, as well as its exhibition game, and was tied at the half once, coming back from five of them for victories. Washington State is a different team in the second half compared to the first averaging 40.6 points per game this season in the second half, compared to just 32.7 in the first. Add to that, WSU is shooting .477 (322-675) from the field and .424 (273-663) from 3-point range in the second half, compared to .412 (265-638) from the field and .331 (112-338) from 3-point in the first half. With that said, this is the kind of DD underdog, that I can sink my proverbial teeth into because of their tireless conditioning. OREGON is 2-8 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season CBB Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (WASHINGTON ST) - after allowing 75 points or more 5 straight games, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season are 40-10 ATS L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. CBB Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (WASHINGTON ST) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more) against an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 28-7 L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Washington State to cover |
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02-11-18 | Mavs +13.5 v. Rockets | 97-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Houston enters this game against visiting Dallas having won its seventh straight game with a 130-104 blowout of the Denver Nuggets on Friday. But its interesting to note the Rockets are just 2-11 ATS L/13 in home games after a blowout win by 20 points or more. The Rockets also have a tendency of playing down to their opponents, and are just 0-7 ATS in home games when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season.HOUSTON is also 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points this season and are slightly over valued considering how they seem to do just enough to get victories vs teams likes this as they save their energy for bigger fish. Meanwhile, Dallas despite of having a down season, are still capable of being competitive despite of playing last night ( beat LAL 130-123) and are my recommendation getting points in this spot Note:. Mavericks have covered 4 of their L/5 in back to backs, and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Rockets are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. DALLAS is 14-6 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 PPG or more), after a loss by 10 points or more are 30-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 25-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Dallas to cover |
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02-11-18 | Kings +13 v. Wolves | 106-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
The Sacramento Kings are a young team, but they have a great deal of energy and must not be underestimated in their ability to cover this DD number as road dogs here in Minnesota tonight. The Kings have recently pulled off upsets on the road against the Heat and Pelicans and have a never say die attitude. Meanwhile, MINNESOTA is just 7-17 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season dating back to their last campaign and 12-23 ATS when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%). Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SACRAMENTO) - poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 25-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Sacramento Kings to cover |
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02-11-18 | UCF v. Memphis -3 | 68-64 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
According to my power rankings and head to head matchup analysis Memphis should be 5 point favs here at home in this battle vs UCF, thus we have value taking them here to cover. UCF is just 5-6 SU on the road this season while Memphis plays their best games at home going 12-3 SU this season. MEMPHIS is 9-0 ATS L/9 off 2 straight losses against conference rivals . MEMPHIS is 10-1 ATS L/11 off a home loss.Knights are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. American Athletic Conference.Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. Memphis have owned this series at going 11-0 SU. CBB teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (UCF) - after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half, with just two starters returning from last season are 23-55 L/5 seasons for a 70% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Memphis to cover |
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02-10-18 | Gonzaga +2.5 v. St. Mary's | 78-65 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show | |
St.Marys exerts so much energy each and every time they play a game, leaving everything on the floor as is evident by their winning scores and if you tune in sometime and watch them play. Because of this they are some times left exhausted when on short rest. The Gaels just played on Thursday night in a DD road win vs Loyola Marymount, and now will be on tired legs at the worst possible time as they face a Gonzaga side that is 5-1 ATS L/6 vs .900 or better opposition. St.Marys is just 0-8 ATS with 1 days rest and could easily get upset tonight by a Bulldogs program, that has revenge on board for a 74-71 loss they suffered to the Gaels earlier this season. GONZAGA is 11-2 ATS in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite and is 10-1 ATS in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more. ST MARYS-CA is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games on Saturday games .ST MARYS-CA is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games off a road win by 10 points or more CBB Road teams as an underdog or pick (GONZAGA) - off a road win by 10 points or more against opponent off a road blowout win by 20 points or more are 75-32 ATS L/21 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Gonzaga to cover |
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02-10-18 | Spurs +11 v. Warriors | 105-122 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
I know that the San Antonio Spurs are a little banged up with key cog Leonard out of the lineup , however, I'm betting their still viable underdogs here on a line that according to my own projections is a little bloated, thanks to the defending champion Golden State Warriors being a public team. The Warriors are just 21-31-2 ATS this season, and have continually failed to produce covers for their backers, thanks to the exaggerated lines attached to their tilts. I know they clobbered the Spurs earlier this season on the road by a 112-92 mark, but lately the champs have looked a little tired and maybe just floating into the all star break as they look preserve energy for the stretch run. Meanwhile, Popovich and company are a group looking for revenge here, and probably feel a little disrespected by being pegged DD dogs. ( By the way despite of what NBA players and coaches say they do take the occasional peak a vegas lines) SAN ANTONIO is 10-1 ATS L/11 in road games after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots . Golden State is 4-16 ATS facing teams with same season revenge for a 20 point or more loss. NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - after one or more consecutive overs, a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a defense allowing (102 PPG or more ) are 29-8 ATS L5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 41-16 L/5 seasons, for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover |
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02-10-18 | Texas Tech v. Kansas State +1.5 | 66-47 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
Texas Tech is riding high at the moment, but I'm betting they get side tracked here, by a revenge minded Kansas State side that has revenge on board for a 74-58 beat down at Lubbock earlier this season. The Raiders have a great record on the season ( 20-4 , 8-3) but their only 3-3 in true road games, and have lost their L/8 trips here to play the Wildcats. The Cats are also 5-1 ATS at home when seeking revenge in this series and are viable dogs in this spot . Play on Kansas State to cover |
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02-10-18 | Bucks v. Magic +5.5 | 111-104 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
The Orlando Magic are playing some very good basketball at the moment and enter this game against the Milwaukee Bucks with three straight wins. What is even more important as far as we are concerned is the Magic's ability to be very competitive as they have covered 13 of their L/15 overall. It took some time but this team is jelling behind a patient coaching staff, and management that has not been hard on this young group. The Magic are playing well with the duo D.J. Augustin and Shelvin Mack as their primary point guards after Elfrid Payton was traded to Phoenix at the deadline. With Augustin as a starter the Magic have flourished going 6-2 SU with him in the starting lineup. During a current 6-5 11 game run the Magic are averaging 107.6 points on 48 percent shooting while allowing 105.4 points and dangerous opponents vs a tired Milwaukee team that looked exhausted last night in a physical loss to the Heat (91-85), and will have very little left in the tank in this spot. 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss. MILWAUKEE is 9-19 ATS L/28 against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.Magic are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.Bucks are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Orlando and 1-4 ATS L/5 meetings overall. Play on Orlando to cover |
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02-10-18 | Virginia Tech +12 v. Virginia | 61-60 | Win | 100 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
Virginia beat up on VTech in their first meeting this season 78-52, and now Virgina Tech will be out to get some payback and be competitive vs their rivals. The Hokies are 7-0 ATS in this series with same season revenge, and the Cavaliers are just 0-5 L/5 ATS overall vs the Hokies when they have revenge . The Cavs may also be ripe for the picking after starting out their last game looking very tired, and had to mount a ferocious comeback to get a win vs Florida State that may have them in a emotional deflated situation at the worst possible time. VIRGINIA TECH is 6-0 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last few seasons. VIRGINIA TECH is 30-17 ATS L/47 as an underdog over the last few seasons. Play on Virginia Tech to cover |
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02-10-18 | Texas State v. Texas-Arlington -8 | 68-70 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
UT Arlington has revenge on board for a ugly 83-62 loss to Texas State in the Sun Belt Tournament last season, and will now be out to hand out some payback here this afternoon vs a side in a slump after suffering 3 straight losses. Series history is on the Mavericks side as they have won 9 of the L/10 meetings in this series covering 8 of them. Overall Texas State also has a ugly history in losses to avenging foes going just 1-16 ATS and are fade material here vs a revenge minded side playing in front of their own fans. TX-ARLINGTON is 8-0 ATS after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games, which has just happened in back to back wins. Play on Texas Arlington to cover |
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02-10-18 | Purdue +3.5 v. Michigan State | 65-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Purdue got caught looking ahead in peekaboo fashion to this game with Michigan State, and got taken out by Ohio State 64-63 in their last trip to the hardwood. Now the Big bad Boilermakers have an even more focused outlook on this game, and I'm betting they come up big here vs the Spartans. Wednesday’s loss to Ohio State was Purdue’s first in Big Ten play and dropped the Boilermakers into a first-place tie in the league standings at 12-1 with the Buckeyes. Michigan State is one game back at 11-2, in what has become the best three-team race in America. Purdue has not lost two straight league games since 2014-15 season. Purdue is among just 3 teams that are unbeaten in “true” road games this year (Purdue, Saint Mary’s, Ohio State). The Boilermakers 8 Consecutive road wins dating to last year, the second-longest streak in the country. If they lose today it won't come easily and I'm betting the worst case scenario is a one possession loss which makes getting 3 to 3.5 points golden in my opinion. PURDUE is 7-0 ATS L/7 versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds/game on the season this season.PURDUE is 16-4 ATS L/20 versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game .MICHIGAN ST is 1-7 ATS L/8 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games this season. CBB - Road teams as an underdog or pick (PURDUE) - off a home loss against a conference rival against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 132-75 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Purdue to cover |
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02-10-18 | Eastern Michigan -1 v. Bowling Green | 63-70 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
From a matchup perspective and considering both sides current form and a system vs system analysis Eastern Michigan is the superior side despite of losing the first meeting of the season 75-71. There was some unfortunate turnovers and missed FTs that put Eastern Michigan in the loss column in that meeting, but revenge and payback is now at hand. The two most recent meetings have seen the road team win, I'm betting on a rinse and repeat situation BOWLING GREEN is 1-8 ATS L/9 in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less.BOWLING GREEN is 2-12 ATS L/14 versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less after 15+ games dating back a few seasons. CBB underdog (BOWLING GREEN) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less are 5-33 ATS L/21 seasons for go against 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Eastern Michigan to cover |
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02-10-18 | Kansas -1.5 v. Baylor | 64-80 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Kansas ranks sixth nationally in the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) and is second in strength of schedule (through games as of Feb. 7) and must be respected here on the road as short chalk. The linesmakers are expecting a close game here today, but it must be noted that Nine of Kansas' 11 conference games this season have been decided by seven points or less with the Jayhawks going 7-2 SU in those tilts. Going back to last season, Kansas has played 20 Big 12 contests that were decided by seven points or less, with Kansas going 17-3 in those outcomes. Needless to say the Jayahwks know how to win close games and get the nod again vs Baylor in this spot. KANSAS is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games in February games. KANSAS is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games. KANSAS is 13-2 ATS L/15 in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less over the last couple of seasons.KANSAS is 15-4 ATS L/19 in road games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season. BAYLOR is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% or more of their attempts.BAYLOR is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots.BAYLOR is 1-9 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less after 15+ games over the last few seasons. Baylor has won 6 straight meetings in this series overall and 2 straight as visitors. Play on Kansas to cover |
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02-10-18 | Fordham +8.5 v. Duquesne | 80-57 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Duquesne slapped Fordham around in their first meeting of the season, as visitors and now payback is at hand. It must be noted that the road team has won the last four meetings , and I'm betting on the visitor covering again, in a game that features two teams with sub par records. Fordham however, has shown some life of late posting 2 wins in their L/3 games whle Duquesne has lost 4 of their L/5 overall. DUQUESNE is 13-28 ATS L/41 in home games versus poor shooting teams - making 42% or less of their shots after 15+ games and have a recent negative history of late in February games losing 12 of their L/13 overall SU. Fordham to cover |
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02-09-18 | Hornets v. Jazz -5 | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
The Utah Jazz are playing some very good basketball at the moment, having won 7 straight and despite of making a couple of trades at the deadline, are still looking like a viable side to back in this spot vs visiting Charlotte. Yesterday, the Jazz dumped one of their top scoring guards Hood, for an equally gifted Jae Crowder from Cleveland, a two way player who fits in perfectly into their hard nosed defensive system. I'm expecting the Jazz not to skip a beat. Meanwhile, Charlotte, has lost two straight, and are off a exhausting OT tilt vs Portland last night, and now going in to the thin air of Salt Lake City should have problems competing as this game progresses, making them fade material in this spot. UTAH is 10-2 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.CHARLOTTE is 6-16 ATS (as an underdog this season.UTAH is 13-5 ATS L/18 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. NBA Home teams (UTAH) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, on Friday nights are 36-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Utah Jazz to cover |
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02-09-18 | Bucks v. Heat -1.5 | 85-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
As this season has progressed I have gained a lot of respect for the Miami Heat, and their work ethic behind key cog Hassan Whiteside. With newly acquired Dwayne Wade coming home to finish his career after getting traded yesterday, and some desperation after a 5 game losing streak, I'm expecting a little extra jump in the legs of this Heat team, and for and from them to come out of this with a victory vs the Giannis "Greek Freak" Antetokounmpo and company. Note: Milwaukee is short handed .. G Delavedova and G Malcolm Brogdon (torn left quad) are out with injuries. MIAMI is 15-4 ATS L/19 when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season dating back to the last campaign.Heat are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record MIAMI is 17-8 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Central.Bucks are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Southeast.Bucks are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 78-21 SU L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 57-99 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 61% for bettors on the blind. Play on the Miami Heat to cover |
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02-09-18 | Nuggets +8.5 v. Rockets | 104-130 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
Houston has been in top form almost all season, and despite of a current 6 game win streak enter this game a little banged up with starting forward Ryan Anderson (ankle) and reserve guard Eric Gordon (back) on the bench along with key starter Ariza and will be short handed here tonight. Meanwhile, the Nuggets, winners of three straight and six of eight, are also currently in good form, and out to looking to avenge a loss to Houston earlier this season. Considering the Rockets situation and heavy schedule of late, I'm making a contrarian move here and backing Denver to cover the number in a spot play.
Play on Denver to cover |
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