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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-15-22 | Penn State v. Michigan -7 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
Penn State @ Michigan 12:00 ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Michigan -7.0 (5*) Any conference home favorite of 5.5 to 10.0 (Michigan) that’s playing after Game 5 and is coming off 3 straight wins which all came over conference opponents, versus a team (Penn State) coming off a conference win by 10 or more and allowed 27 points or fewer, resulted in those home favorite 17-0 SU and 16-1 ATS since 2017. The average victory margin for the home teams came by 22.9 points per game. Give me Michigan minus the points. |
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10-13-22 | Washington Commanders -105 v. Bears | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 29 m | Show | |
Commanders @ Bears 8:15 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Commanders -105 (5*) I went 4-1 during NFL Week 5 action and my only loser came on the Washington Commanders. Well, instead of responding emotionally and playing against them for revenge, I went the professional route when handicapping this game by simply staying on an even keel. The more I crunched the offensive and defensive numbers of these teams, it became clear to me that Washington was the way to go. Additionally, we have a home team with a better record (2-3), facing an opponent (1-4) on a current 4-game losing streak, yet the oddsmakers have this as an even game on the point-spread. Like I’ve stated on several occasions, think like an oddsmaker instead of a sports bettor, and it will prompt you into making more sound decisions. Chicago is coming off a 29-22 division road loss at Minnesota. That defeat dropped their season win percentage to .400. Play against any NFL home team (Bears) with a win percentage of between .250 and .400, and that team (Bears) is coming off a division away loss by 5 points or more, and they allowed 33 points or fewer, resulted in those home teams going 0-11 SU since 2018. Give me the Commanders in this contest. |
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10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Marshall -10 | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
UL-Lafayette @ Marshall 7:30 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Marshall -10.0 (5*) Marshall is coming off a 28-7 win in their previous game. UL-lafatette lost each of their previous 2 games by scores of 21-17 and 20-17. These results set up into a rare but unblemished college football angle which has gone unbeaten since 1981. Any college football home favorite of between 8.0 to 14.0 that’s coming off a win by 16 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent coming off back-to-back SU losses which each came by 4 points or less, resulted in those home favorites within these point-spread parameters going 7-0 SU&ATS since 1981. The average victory margin by the home favorites in those contests came by an average of 23.7 points per game. Give me Marshall minus the points. |
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10-10-22 | Raiders +8 v. Chiefs | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Raiders @ Chiefs 8:15 PM ET Game# 479-480 Play On: Raiders +8.0 (5*) This sets up as a potential flat spot for Kansas City. They’re coming off a 41-31 win at Tampa Bay in their previous game which avenged their 2021 Super Bowl loss to the Bucs. Next up for the Chiefs is what figures to be a mega-hyped home game versus a Buffalo team which is, and continues to be, the favorite to win the AFC. Sandwiched between those 2 contests is a game versus the 1-3 Las Vegas Raiders who they swept last season by blowout scores of 48-9 and 41-14. By the way, the Chiefs are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 regular season games as a home favorite of 9.0 or less versus an opponent with a win percentage of .750 or less. All 3 of those contests took place last season and Kansas City lost 2 of those games straight up. The Raiders are coming off their first win of the season after last week’s 32-23 win over Denver in a game they covered as a 2.5-point home favorite. Since the start of last season, Las Vegas has gone 4-0 SU&ATS as an away underdog of between 4.0 to 9.5. The average line in those 4 contests was +6.5 and the underdog Raiders won all 4 SU by an average of 6.3 points per game. Any NFL division away underdog of between 5.5 to 9.5 that’s coming off a dive home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 17.5 or less, and they’re facing a team that allowed 13 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those away underdogs going 15-0 ATS since 1994. Those away underdogs also went 8-6-1 SU as well. Give me the Raiders plus the points. |
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10-09-22 | Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
Bengals @ Ravens 8:20 PM ET Game# 477-478 Play On: Bengals +3.5 (10*) Baltimore is a mentality fragile team right now. They’re 0-2 at home this season while blowing leads of 17 versus Buffalo and 21 points against Miami in doing so. This will be their first meeting with Cincinnati this season after losing twice versus the Bengals last year by scores of 41-21 and 41-17. The Ravens defense has looked vulnerable in 3 of their 4 games this season and I look for Cincinnati’s offense to expose them once again. After starting the season with a pair of narrow 3-point losses, Cincinnati has roared back with 2 straight wins and covered both of those contests as a favorite. It worth noting the obvious of Cincinnati having 3 days more rest than Baltimore heading into this matchup. This is a Bengals team that’s also gone an extremely profitable 10-5 SU and 12-3 ATS during its last 15 away games. That includes 9-0 ATS and 7-2 SU if they were an underdog of 2.5 or greater in those contests. Any NFL division road underdog of 3.5 or less that’s playing in Games 3 through 8, and is playing an opponent (Ravens) who will be playing with double revenge, resulted in those away underdogs going 12-0 SU&ATS since 2009. Now only did the away dogs cover all 12 contests but they won all of them SU by an average of 11.0-points per game. Give me the Bengals plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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10-09-22 | Steelers v. Bills -14 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
Steelers @ Bills 1:00 PM ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Buffalo -14.0 (5*) Since winning at Cincinnati in their season opener, Pittsburgh has lost 3 consecutive games in a row. Rookie 1st round draft choice Kenny Pickett will make his first career NFL start on Sunday. He will be doing so in one of the most hostile environments that NFL visiting teams are subjected to. Pickett came on in relief of Mitch Trurbisky last week and went 10-13 for 120 yards. However, although that performance line looks impressive, he had 0 touchdown passes and his only 3 incompletions were all interceptions. During their 1-3 start to the season, Pittsburgh is being outgained by an average of 104.2 yards per game. Under head coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 on the road following a SU loss in its previous contest and was outscored by an average of 14.7 points per game. The Bills will be missing a minimum 4 starters on Sunday. However, we’ve seen very little if any line movement, and they possess as good or better, quality depth than any team in the NFL. Buffalo is 3-1 thus far and is outgaining opponents by an average of 178.0 yards per game. Under head coach Sean McDermott, Buffalo is 7-0 SU and 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite of 10.0 or more and outscored those opponents by an average of 21.7 points per game. Any NFL home favorite of 10.5 or greater (Buffalo) with a winning record, versus an opponent (Steelers) coming off losses in each of their previous 2 games and they have a win percentage of .250 to .400, resulted in those home favorites going 19-0 SU&ATS since 2013. The average victory margin in those 19 contests came by an average of 23.4 points per game. Give me Buffalo minus the points. |
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10-09-22 | Titans v. Washington Commanders +1 | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 18 m | Show | |
Titans @ Commanders 1:00 PM ET Game# 463-464 Play On: Commanders +1.0 (5*) Since winning their opening game versus Jacksonville, Washington has gone a dismal 0-3 SU&ATS and lost by an average of 13.3 points per game. Nevertheless, they’re just a 1.5-point underdog versus an opponent that was the #1 seed in the AFC last season, and is coming off wins in their last 2 games. It’s seldom as easy as it looks when it comes to NFL betting. Tennessee is coming of 2 consecutive SU wins, and both came as underdogs. NFL teams haven’t fared well at all when in that exact situation over the past 5 decades. Specifically speaking, NFL teams coming off 2 consecutive SU underdog wins have gone a dismal 39-111-1 SU and 56-95 ATS (37.1%) since 1982 when facing non-division opponents. Give me the Commanders plus the small number. |
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10-09-22 | Bears v. Vikings OVER 44 | 22-29 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show | |
Bears @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Over 44.0 (5*) There’s been 68% of the tickets and 95% of the money wagered on the under as of this writing. Yet, the total has gone from its opening number of 43.0 up to 44.0. This is textbook reverse line movement and a true indicator of sharp money go on the over which includes mine. Since 2020, Minnesota has played 15-5 (75%) to the over whenever the total was 42.5 to 49.0 and that includes 8-2 (80%) to the over if those games were played at home. You also might be surprised to know that Chicago has played 5-0 to the over in their last 5 division away games and there was a combined average of 59.8 points scored per game. Furthermore, the last 3 games between these teams played in Minnesota have all gone over the total with a combined average of 49.3 points scored per game. |
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10-08-22 | Washington State v. USC -12.5 | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
Washington State @ USC 7:30 PM ET Game# 367-368 Play On: USC -12.5 (10*) This USC team continues to get better every week under new head coach Lincoln Riley. If the Trojans have a glaring weakness, it’s defending the run. Conversely, although Washington’s offense has been productive in the air, the Cougars have struggled to get any consistency in their running game. During its 4 games versus FBS opponents this season, Washington State has averaged just 81.5 yards rushing per game while averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per attempt. During their only game versus a ranked opponent this season, Washington State allowed 44 points and surrendered 624 yards in a home loss to Oregon. Here's another key football handicapping component that stands out in this contest. Throughout their first 5 games, USC has yet to commit a turnover while also forcing opponents to turn it over 14 times. On the other hand, Washington State has committed 12 turnovers over their first 5 games. This isn’t a good matchup for the Washington State Cougars. Yes, the Cougars are 4-1 but their win have all come versus unranked teams that have been less than impressive to start their seasons. Any college football undefeated home favorite of -4.0 to -19.0 that’s coming off a home win, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better, resulted in those home favorites within this point-spread parameters going 11-0 ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 11 contests came by a decisive 22.5 points per game. Give me USC minus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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10-08-22 | Utah v. UCLA +3.5 | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
Utah @ UCLA 3:30 PM ET Game# 367-368 Play On: UCLA +3.5 Utah is coming off a 42-16 home win over Oregon State and covered easily as a 10.5-point favorite. UCLA is coming off a 40-32 home win over Washington and did so as a 3.5-point underdog. That win improved the Bruins season record to 5-0. Any college football conference home underdog of 7.5 or less whose won 3 or more games in a row, and their previous game was against a conference opponent, versus a team (Utah) coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home underdogs going 16-1 ATS (94.4%) since 2018. The home underdogs went 14-3 SU as well. Give me UCLA plus the points. |
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10-08-22 | Louisville v. Virginia +3 | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
Louisville @ Virginia 12:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Virginia +3.0 (5*) Louisville is coming off a 34-33 loss at Boston College in a game they closed as a 13.5-point favorite. That upset loss dropped their season record to 2-3 (.400). That record includes 0-3 SU&ATS versus fellow ACC teams. Virginia enters this week 2-3 while going 0-3 on the road but they’re 2-0 at home. Any college football home team (Virginia) with a win percentage of .363 or better, versus an opponent coming off a conference upset loss as a favorite of -10.0 to -17.0, and that road team has a losing record, resulted in those home teams 23-2 SU (92%) since 2007. The SU betting angle takes on added significance since it backs the hone underdog Virginia Cavaliers. Give me Virginia plus the points. |
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10-08-22 | TCU v. Kansas +7 | 38-31 | Push | 0 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
TCU @ Kansas 12:00 PM ET Game# 337-338 Play On: Kansas +7.0 (5*) I was on TCU last week as a 6.0-point home underdog and they came through after blowing out Oklahoma 55-24. That win improved TCU to 4-0 on the season. However, my over 2 decades of experience reminds me that teams coming off an upset win at home versus a nationally ranked opponent are more times than not flat in their following game. I firmly believe that mental aspect will come into play when they travel to Lawrence, Kansas to take on an upstart Jayhawks team which has started the season 5-0. Any college football home underdog (Kansas) who’s undefeated and is playing after Game 5 of the season, and they won 24 or less of their previous 28 home games, versus an opponent coming off a SU win and they have a win percentage of .833 or better, resulted in those home underdogs going 18-1 ATS (94.2%) since 1982. Those home underdogs also went 17-2 SU in those 19 contests. Give me Kansas plus the points. |
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10-08-22 | Tennessee v. LSU +3 | 40-13 | Loss | -118 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
Tennessee @ LSU 12:00 PM ET Game# 377-378 Play On: LSU +3.0 (5*) Tennessee is coming off a 38-33 home win over Florida last week which improved their season record to 5-0. The bad news, they allowed Florida to rack up 594 yards of total offense. Since losing their season opener to Florida State 24-23, LSU has reeled off 4 consecutive wins and includes a 2-0 start in the SEC. LSU played a highly ranked team at home earlier this season and came away with a convincing 31-16 win over #24 Mississippi State. LSU also beat Auburn 21-17 on the road during its previous game. Any college football home team with a win percentage of .800 or better that’s coming off a conference away win, and is playing after Game 3 of the season, and they’re facing a conference opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home teams going 41-9 SU (82%) since 2018. If the home teams were an underdog of 7.5 or less, they were an extremely profitable 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS. Give me LSU plus the points. |
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10-07-22 | Houston +3 v. Memphis | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 55 h 50 m | Show | |
Houston @ Memphis 7:30 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Houston +3.0 (5*) Memphis lost 49-23 in their season opener at #23 Mississippi State. Since then, they have strung together 4 straight wins. It must be noted, their 4 wins came against opponents with a combined 8-12 (.400) record and none of those teams currently have a winning record. Memphis has also benefitted from a +9 turnover margin thus far. Houston on the other hand is exactly even in that category and against far better competition than Memphis has faced. Houston was a Top 25 ranked team in the AP Preseason college football poll. Nevertheless, the Cougars are off to a disappointing 2-3 start to the season. However, they have faced an extremely tough schedule to date with their five opponents currently possessing a cumulative 18-7 (.720) record. Furthermore, 2 of their 3 losses came by exactly 3 points to Tulane (4-1) and at Texas Tech (3-2) in overtime. The other came against #19 Kansas (5-0). Their 2 wins came over Rice and UTSA who both currently are at 3-2 on the season. Give me Houston plus the points. |
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10-05-22 | SMU +3 v. Central Florida | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
SMU @ Central Florida 7:00 PM ET Game# 421-422 Play On: SMU +3.0 (5*) Central Florida is coming off a 27-10 home win over Georgia Tech. The victory margin in that contest was a bit misleading since the Golden Knights were outgained 452-333 in that contest. UCF relies heavily on their running game which has encompassed 62.5% of their offensive plays this season in addition to 57% of their total yards. That is a winning formula when playing with the lead. However, they showed vulnerability in the 2nd half of their 20-14 home loss to Louisville when their running game stalled, and their defense couldn’t get off the field. Louisville forced the Golden Knights out of their comfort zone evidenced by them forced to throw the ball on 47.2% of their offensive plays. SMU is coming off a bye week that was preceded by 2 close losses against quality non-conference competition. They lost 42-34 to #17 TCU (4-0) and fell short in a 34-27 defeat at Maryland (4-1). Those losses evened the Mustangs record at 2-2. The SMU offense has been dynamic thus far while amassing 453 yards of total offense in all 4 of their contests while also averaging a healthy 38.5 points scored per game. If I may steal a boxer’s cliché, you most time than not have a puncher’s chance when betting on an underdog with high-powered offense. Additionally, SMU has faced the tougher competition compared to UCF and the Mustangs are coming off a bye week. Any college football conference away underdog of 4.0 or less (SMU) who is coming off 2 consecutive losses, and is coming off a bye week, and they possess a win percentage of less than .545, resulted in those away underdogs going 32-9 ATS (78%) since 1980. Those underdogs also went 30-11 SU in those contests. If they were facing an opponent (UCF) coming off a SU win this college football ATS betting angle improves to 12-1 ATS (92.3%) and 11-2 SU. Give me SMU plus the points. |
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10-03-22 | Rams v. 49ers -125 | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Rams @ 49ers 8:15 PM ET Game# 279-280 Play On: 49ers -125 (5*) San Francisco will be playing with big time revenge after sustaining a 20-17 loss to the Rams in last season’s NFC Championship Game. That loss snapped a 6-game win streak for San Francisco against the Rams. The Rams have exhibited no running game throughout its first 3 contests while averaging 72.3 yards and a paltry 3.4 yards per rushing attempt. They’ll be facing an extremely 49ers defense which allows 79 yards rushing per game and 2.8 yards per attempt. Give me the 49ers on the money line. |
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10-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bucs +110 | 41-31 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 49 m | Show | |
Chiefs @ Buccaneers 8:20 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Buccaneers +110 (5*) Tampa Bay is coming off last week’s 14-12 home loss to Green Bay. The Buccaneers are 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 regular season home games following a loss and won by an enormous average of 22.2 points per game. The Tampa Bay defense has been outstanding throughout their first 3 contests while allowing a paltry 9.0 points and 289.0 yards per game. The last times these two teams met was in the 2021 Super Bowl when Tampa Bay routed Kansas City 31-9. The Bucs defense frustrated Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs high-powered offense in that contest by forcing them to be patient and keeping the huge chunk plays to a minimum. I look for more of the same on Sunday night. Give me Tampa Bay for a money line wager. |
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10-02-22 | Patriots +10.5 v. Packers | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
Patriots @ Packers 4:25 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Patriots +10.5 (10*) I may be in the minority, but I’m not as high on New England starting quarterback Mac Jones as most others are. As a matter of fact, I truly believe that there’s very little drop off by going to the veteran Booby Hoyer who will get the start due to Jones being on the shelf with an ankle injury. New England is coming off last Sunday’s 37-26 home loss to Baltimore. Under Bill Belichick, New England has gone 26-6 SU&ATS following a loss in which they allowed 31 points or more. That also includes 13-1 SU in their last 14 if they’re coming off a home defeat. Green Bay is 2-1 thus far but it’s been the Packers defense that has far outplayed their offensive teammates. The Packers are averaging just 16.0 points scored per game. Furthermore, they are averaging 1.0 point scored per 22.2 yards gained which is terrible. They’ll be facing a solid New England defensive unit which is surrendering only 314.7 yards per game. NFL underdogs versus teams that average 17.0 or fewer points scored per game are 21-3 ATS (87.5%) since 2018. They also went 14-11 SU during those contests. Give me the Patriots plus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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10-02-22 | Cardinals v. Panthers +1 | 26-16 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
Cardinals @ Panthers 4:05 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: Panthers +1.0 (5*) Arizona has gone 9-1 SU&ATS during its last 10 regular season away games. Nonetheless, the Cardinals are coming off a 20-12 division home loss to the Rams which left them with a 1-2 record. Arizona is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away following a division home loss and were outscored by 17.3 points per game. Carolina is coming off a 22-14 home win over New Orleans which improved their season mark to 1-2. The Panthers 2 losses have come by a combined 5 points. So, with a little bit of luck they could very easily be 3-0. The Panthers are a poor 7-22 during their last 29 at home, and last week’s home win over New Orleans snapped an 0-7 SU&ATS skid in games played at Charlotte. Additionally, 6 of those previously mentioned 7 home wins have come when their point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0. Any NFL home team with a win percentage of .250 to .400 that’s coming off a win in which they scored 22 points or more, versus an opponent with a losing record and is coming off a loss in which they scored 21 points or fewer, resulted in those home teams going 17-1 SU (94.4%) since 2016. If those home teams were -2.5 to +4.5, they were a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 8.8 points per game. Give me the Panthers. |
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10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts -3.5 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
Titans @ Colts 1:00 PM ET Game# 253-254 Play On: Colts -3.5 (5*) Tennessee’s offensive strength is their running game. However, that aspect of their game has been disappointing throughout their first 3 games of the season. It doesn’t get any easier against a Colts defense which has held their first 3 opponents to a mere 77 yards rushing per game and a paltry 2.6 yards per attempt. Furthermore, after trading away start wide receiver A.J. Brown to Philadelphia during the offseason, the Titans sorely are lacking a receiver that can threaten opponents in the deep vertical passing game. Another concern for Tennessee is their defense is allowing 145 yards per game rushing and will have the unenviable task of trying to slow down star Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. Give me the Colts minus the points. |
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10-02-22 | Chargers v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
Chargers @ Texans 1:00 PM ET Game# 259-260 Play On: Under 45.5 (5*) Since 2019, the Chargers have played 12-3 to the under during its first 4 games of the season, and that includes 6-1 to the under on the road. The Chargers are coming off an embarrassing 38-10 home loss to Jacksonville in a game they closed as a 6.5-point favorite. Houston is coming off a 23-20 loss at Chicago in their previous game. Listed below is a perfect NFL totals betting angle pertaining to this matchup. Any NFL team (Chargers) with a losing record that’s coming off a game in which they failed cover by 28.0 points or more, and they scored 13 points or fewer in that contest, versus an opponent that scored 27 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those contests playing 15-0 to the under since 2013. The average total in those 15 contests was 42.4 and there was just a combined 32.2 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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10-02-22 | Jaguars v. Eagles -6.5 | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
Jaguars @ Eagles 1:00 PM ET Game# 265-266 Play On: Eagles -6.5 (5*) Philadelphia is coming off last Sunday’s 24-8 win over Washington and covered easily as a 6.0-point favorite. Jacksonville is coming off a 38-10 road win over the Los Angeles Chargers in a game they closed as a 6.5-point underdog. This sets up an unbeaten NFL ATS betting angle which is shown below. Any NFL home favorite of 10.5 or less (Eagles) that’s coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 9.5-points or greater, versus an opponent (Jaguars) off an away underdog SU win and has a win percentage of .416 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 ATS. The average victory margin for those home favorites was 15.5 points per game. Give me the Eagles minus the points. |
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10-01-22 | Liberty v. Old Dominion +3.5 | 38-24 | Loss | -108 | 49 h 1 m | Show | |
Liberty @ Old Dominion 6:00 PM ET Game# 137-138 Play On: Old Dominion +3.5 (5*) Old Dominion is coming off a 29-26 home win over Arkansas State. The Monarchs are 2-0 ATS this season as a single-digit underdog. They upset Virginia Tech in their season opener as a 6.0-point underdog. Additionally, as a 9.0-point road underdog at Virginia, they lost 16-14 with the Cavaliers kicking a game winning field goal with only 0:02 left to play in the game. Any college football home underdog of 6.0 or less that’s coming off a home win by 3-points or fewer in which they scored 32 points or less, and they’re playing in Games 2 through 6, resulted in those home underdogs going 25-1 ATS (95.8%) since 1985. Those home underdogs also went 22-4 SU in those contests. Give me Old Dominion plus the points. |
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10-01-22 | Wake Forest v. Florida State -6.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 57 m | Show |
Wake Forest @ Florida State 3:30 PM ET Game# 123-124 Play On: Florida State -6.5 (10*) Florida State is off to a 4-0 start to the season which includes wins over LSU (3-1) in a game played in New Orleans, and conference victories at Louisville as well as last week’s 44-14 blowout of Boston College. Wake Forest is coming off last Saturday’s emotional and heartbreaking 44-38 overtime loss to #5 ranked Clemson. There’s very little chance they can come close to matching the intensity level they exhibited last week, especially so because of the nature in which they lost, and now playing another national ranked team on the road. Additionally, this is an opportunity for Florida State to make a huge statement to the nation that Seminoles football is once again highly relevant. I think Florida State will be more than up to the task. Any college football home favorite (Florida State) that averages 440 yards or more of total offense per game, and they averaged 7.25 yards or more per offensive yards per play throughout their previous 2 contests, versus an opponent (Wake Forest) who defensively allows 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home teams going an exceptional 71-25 ATS (74%) since 1992. Those home teams also went 93-5 SU during those contests and outscored the visiting teams by an average of 25.9 points per game. Give me Florida State minus the points for a 10* Top Play winner. |
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10-01-22 | Oklahoma v. TCU +6.5 | 24-55 | Win | 100 | 48 h 1 m | Show | |
Oklahoma @ TCU 12:00 PM ET Game# 183-184 Play On: TCU +6.5 (5*) TCU is off to a 3-0 start to the season and they’re averaging an impressive 510 yards of total offense per game. During their previous 2 contests the Horned Frogs averaged an excellent 7.48 yards per offensive play. Conversely, the Oklahoma defense which has allowed 361.8 yards per game during its 3-1 start to the season. This sets up an awesome college football betting angle displayed below. Any college football home team (TCU) that averages 440 yards or more of total offense per game, and they averaged 7.25 yards or more per offensive yards per play throughout their previous 2 contests, versus an opponent who defensively allows 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home teams going an exceptional 99-13 SU (88.4%) since 1992. This college football SU betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the home underdog in this matchup. We won’t get greedy and take the points as an additional bonus. Give me TCU plus the points. |
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09-30-22 | Washington v. UCLA +3.5 | 32-40 | Win | 100 | 36 h 11 m | Show | |
Washington @ UCLA 10:30 PM ET Game# 111-112 Play On: UCLA +3.5 (5*) Both teams come in with identical 4-0 records. UCLA is coming off a convincing 45-17 win at Colorado. Washington is coming off a 40-22 home win over Stanford and covered as a 14.0-point favorite. Any college football conference home pick or underdog of 6.5 or less (UCLA) that’s coming off a road win by 28 points or more, and has a win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent (Washington) with a winning record who’s coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home teams going 9-0 ATS since 2018. Those home teams also went 8-1 SU in those contests. The lone SU loss came on 9/29/2018 when Penn State sustained a 27-26 defeat to Ohio State, but they covered as a 3.0-point home underdog. Those 9 home teams in this identical betting scenario also outscored their opponents by an average of 8.3 points per game. Give me UCLA plus the points. |
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09-30-22 | UTSA v. Middle Tennessee State +4 | 45-30 | Loss | -105 | 96 h 13 m | Show | |
UTSA @ Middle Tennessee State 7:30 PM ET Game# 107-108 Play On: Middle Tennessee State +4.0 (5*) The UTSA Roadrunners enter this game at 2-2. Their 2 victories were 41-38 over Army (overtime) and last week’s 52-24 thrashing of Texas Southern who plays at the FCS level. However, that Texas Southern win comes with a huge red flag as the Roadrunners defense allowed 464 yards in the contest. That marks the 3rd consecutive game in which the Roadrunners stop unit surrendered 459 yards or more and in addition to allowing an alarmingly high 34.3 points per game during that stretch. After beginning the season with a 44-7 blowout loss to James Madison (4-0), MTSU has gone 3-0 SU&ATS. As a matter of fact, last Saturday they upset then #25 Miami 45-31 as a large 26.0-point road underdog. The Blue Raiders amassed an impressive 507 yards of total offense in that stunning result. MTSU also has an impressive turnover margin of +5 during their current 3-game win streak. Any college football home underdog of 7.0 or less (MTSU) that’s coming off 3 or more wins in a row, and they scored 42 points or more in their previous game, versus an opponent (UTSA) coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going a perfect 15-0 ATS since 2016. Those underdogs also won 12 of those 15 games straight up. Give me Middle Tennessee State plus the points. |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -4 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Bengals 8:20 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Bengals -4.0 (10*) Miami is coming off a physically grueling 21-19 home upset win over Buffalo. That game was played in extremely hot and humid conditions. Now they have a task of facing the AFC defending champion Cincinnati Bengals on the road and with just 3 days of rest. Stop and think for a second, we have a 3-0 Dolphins team that’s better than a field goal underdog, and they’re facing an opponent who’s 1-2. My educated guess is public betting will side with the underdog for just that reason alone. It’s very seldom that simple or easy when it comes to sports betting. Like I’ve said on numerous occasions and it’s worth repeating. Think like an oddsmaker and you will be much better for it. By the way, since the start of last season, Cincinnati has gone 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS when facing teams with a winning record. This will be their first game of the season versus a team with a winning record. The Bengals are coming off a much-needed 27-12 road win over the Jets while easily covering as a 6.5-point favorite. Any NFL non-division home favorite of 3.0 or more (Bengals) with a win percentage of .900 or less that’s playing after Game 3 of the season, versus an opponent (Dolphins) coming off a division home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 19-2 ATS (90.5%) since 1985. Give me the Bengals minus the points for my NFL Thursday Game of the Month. |
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09-25-22 | 49ers v. Broncos +2 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
San Francisco @ Denver 8:20 PM ET Game# 487-488 Play On: Denver +2.0 (10*) Denver has an extremely successful win rate when playing at home during the first 3 games of the season while going 38-9 SU (80.9%). Denver is coming off a 16-9 home win over Houston last Sunday but failed to cover as a sizable 10-5-point favorite. The 49ers are coming off an easy 27-7 home win over Seattle last week. NFL home teams that are coming off a SU win in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and they’re playing in Games 2 through 5, and they’re facing an opponent coming off a division win, resulted in those home teams going 26-3 SU (89.7%) since 1990. If their road opponent’s division win came by 9 points or more, that identical NFL SU betting angle improves to 14-0 SU since 1990. The straight up betting angle takes on added value because it backs the home underdog Denver Broncos in this matchup. Give me the Denver Broncos plus the small number for a 10* Top Play. |
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09-25-22 | Bengals v. Jets +6 | 27-12 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
Bengals @ Jets 1:00 PM ET Game# 465-466 Play On: Jets +6.0 (5*) The Bengals find themselves in a rare situation as an away favorite and coming off a pair of 3-point losses. Any NFL away favorite of 6.0 or more that’s coming of 2 consecutive losses by 3 points or fewer, resulted in those away favorites going 0-4 SU&ATS since 1980 and were defeated by an average of 10.3 points per game. The Jets are coming off a remarkable and unlikely comeback win last Sunday in Cleveland. They overcame a 30-17 deficit to win 31-30 after scoring 2 touchdowns with less than 2 minutes to play. They closed as a 6.5-point underdog in that contest. Any NFL non-division home underdog of 5.0 to 8.5 that’s coming off an away underdog SU win, and they’re playing in Game 2 through Game 6 of their season, resulted in those home underdogs going 21-1 ATS (95.5%) since 1980. Those underdogs also went a more than respectable 11-11 SU during those contests. Give me the Jets plus the points. |
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09-25-22 | Lions +6 v. Vikings | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
Lions @ Vikings 1:00 ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Lions +6.0 (5*) The Lions are coming off an impressive 36-27 home win over Washington. Conversely, Minnesota is coming off a 24-7 Monday night loss at Philadelphia. The Lions have gone 3-0 ATS in their last 3 versus the Vikings. They went just 1-2 SU in those contests but both losses each came by narrow 2-point margins. Any division away underdog that’s coming off a win in which they scored 35 points or more, versus an opponent coming off a loss by 11 or more and they scored 14 or less, resulted in those division away underdogs going 14-0 ATS since 1986. Those underdogs also went a stellar 10-4 SU as well. Give me Detroit plus the points. |
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09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts UNDER 51 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
Chiefs @ Colts 1:00 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Under 51.0 (5*) The Colts have played 2-0 to the under in its first 2 games and is coming off a 24-0 loss at Jacksonville in a game they closed as a 3.0-point favorite. Despite a poor 0-1-1 start to the season, the Colts defense has been solid despite being on the field an average of 34:19 per game. They’ve held their opponents to 315.0 yards per game, 4.8 yards per offensive play, and permitted them to convert on just 36.7% of its 3rd down attempts. Additionally, the Indianapolis defense has surrendered 77 and 96 yards rushing in their first 2 games while allowing a mere 2.7 yards per rushing attempt. Since 2020, the Colts have played 6-0 to the under after holding opponents to 99 yards or less rushing in their previous 2 contests and there was a combined average of 40.0 points scored per game. However, offensively they have an atrocious ratio of 1 point scored per 36.8 yards gained. Putting those numbers into perspective, Kansas City has averaged 1 point scored per 11.4 yards gained per play. Kansas City managed only 319 yards of total offense in the previous game versus the Chargers which is well below the standard they’ve set since Andy Reid has been their head coach. During the first 2 games the Chiefs defense has been outstanding on 3rd down while their opponents converted a mere 28.6% of those attempts into 1st downs. Any NFL home team (Colts) coming off a SU favorite loss by 14 points or more, and there’s a total of 52.0 or less, resulted in those games playing 36-4 (90%) to the under since 2016. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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09-24-22 | USC v. Oregon State +6 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 50 h 7 m | Show |
USC @ Oregon State 9:30 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: Oregon State +6.0 (10*) Oregon State is coming off a 68-28 win over Montana State which improved their season record to 3-0. Since 1980, any college football home team that’s 3-0 to start the season and is coming off a win by 35 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 49-5 SU (90.7%). This SU betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the underdog Oregon State Beavers in this matchup. USC is a +10 turnover differential during it 3-0 start, but Oregon State isn’t too shabby at +5 in that category. Give me Oregon State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-24-22 | Minnesota -3 v. Michigan State | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 44 h 9 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Michigan State 3:30 PM ET Game# 337-338 Play On: Minnesota -3.0 (5*) The Gophers enter this matchup with an unblemished 3-0 record after recording 3 home wins. They outgained those 3 opponents by an enormous 384.4 yards per game and displayed a dominating running game while doing so. Since the start of last season, Minnesota is 6-0 SU&ATS when coming off a home win and won by 30.2 points per game. Minnesota has gone 3-0 SU&ATS as a conference home favorite of 8.0 or less under current head coach P.J. Fleck and won by a decisive margin of 25.0 points per game. Conversely, Michigan State is coming off a humbling 39-28 loss at Washington in a game they also the Huskies to rack up 503 yards of total offense. Any college football away team with a point-spread of +1.5 to -4.5 playing in a Game 4, and is 3-0 to start the season, and they allowed 23 points or fewer in their previous games which came versus a non-conference opponent, resulted in those away teams going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1987. The average margin of victory was by 12.0 points per game. Give me Minnesota minus the points. |
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09-24-22 | Clemson v. Wake Forest +7.5 | 51-45 | Win | 100 | 46 h 10 m | Show | |
Clemson @ Wake Forest 12:00 PM ET Game# 339-340 Play On: Wake Forest +7.0 (5*) Talk about revenge, Wake Forest has lost their last 13 games versus Clemson and 12 of those defeats came by 10 points or more. However, most of those matchups involved Wake Forest teams not as good as this current edition and Clemson teams much better than this one in 2022. The Demon Deacons have established a strong home field in recent years. They’ve won 11 straight at home and are 17-2 in their last 19 in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. That certainly bodes well when considering they’re a home underdog on Saturday. The Demon Deacons were caught looking ahead in last week’s 37-36 home win over Liberty in a game they closed as a 17.0-point favorite. Give me Wake Forest plus the points. |
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09-24-22 | Baylor v. Iowa State -133 | 31-24 | Loss | -133 | 46 h 9 m | Show | |
Baylor @ Iowa State 12:00 PM ET Game# 313-314 Play On: Iowa State -133 (5*) Iowa State is coming off a 43-10 shellacking of Ohio U. and outgained them by an enormous by 230 yards. The Cyclones are allowing a mere 234.3 yards per game which has sparked them to a 3-0 start to the season. The Cyclones defense has yet to allow an opponent to rush for 100 or more yards. Since 2020, Iowa State has gone 6-0 SU&ATS at home after allowing 125 yards or less rushing in each of their previous 2 games. Additionally, Iowa State will be playing with revenge by way of last year’s 31-29 loss at Baylor in a game that the Cyclones closed as a 7.0-point road favorite. Any college football home team that allows 285 yards or fewer per contest and is coming off a game in which they outgained their opponent by 225 yards or more, resulted in those home teams going 34-2 SU (94.4%) since 2018. Give me Iowa State on the money line. |
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09-24-22 | Duke +7.5 v. Kansas | 27-35 | Loss | -117 | 46 h 1 m | Show | |
Duke @ Kansas 12:00 PM ET Game# 361-362 Play On: Duke +7.5 (5*) Someone is going to come out of this game with a 4-0 record. Raise your hand if you predicted that kind of start from either team. Now your hand down if you raised because you’re either a pathological or blatant liar. Kansas is coming off upset wins as an away underdog at Houston and West Virginia. Despite their 3-0 start with 1 of those wins coming on the road, Duke is just 10-18 in their last 28 away games. The Blue Devils are at a +5 turnover differential thus far in 2022. Since 1980, any non-conference college football away underdog of 2.5 to 9.5 that’s coming off 2 or more wins in a row, and they’ve won 11 or fewer of its last 28 road games, versus an opponent off 2 straight away underdog SU upset win, resulted in those away underdogs going 8-0 ATS. Those away underdogs also won 6 of those 8 contests straight up. Give me Duke plus the points. |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4.5 | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 34 h 60 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland 8:15 PM Game# 301-302 Play On: Cleveland -4.5 (5*) Both teams enter today with a 1-1 record, and each is coming off a loss. The Browns managed to squander a 30-17 lead with less than 2 minutes to play in a 31-30 loss to the New York Jets as a closing 6.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh is coming off a disappointing 17-14 home loss to New England. Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 on the road following a SU loss and lost by an average of 15.2 points per game. Any NFL Thursday division home favorite that’s coming off a home favorite loss in which they scored 7 points or more versus an opponent with at least 1 win on the season, resulted in those home favorites going 11-1 ATS since 1980. Those home favorites were also a perfect 12-0 SU in those contests and won by an average of 12.8 points per game. Give me Cleveland minus the points. |
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09-22-22 | West Virginia v. Virginia Tech +1.5 | 33-10 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 21 m | Show | |
West Virginia @ Virginia Tech 7:30 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Virginia Tech +1.5 (5*) Virginia Tech is coming off a 27-7 win over Wofford and outgained them by 276 yards. The Hokies are 2-1 thus far and their defense has been outstanding while having allowed 12.3 points and 199.7 points per game. During West Virginia’s only 2 games versus FBS opponents this season their defense allowed 46.5 points and 402.0 yards per game. Any college football home team that outgained their previous opponent by 275 yards or more and its defense is allowing an average of 225 or fewer yards per game, resulted in those home teams going 34-2 SU (94.2%) since 2018. That exact betting angle is also a perfect 12-0 SU since 2020. Since this college football SU betting angle supports the home underdog in this matchup it takes on even greater significance. Give me Virginia Tech plus the small number. |
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09-19-22 | Vikings v. Eagles -135 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Eagles 8:15 PM ET Game# 291-292 Play On: Eagles -135 (5*) The Eagles are coming off a 38-35 win at Detroit in their season opener. Any Monday night non-division NFL home team that’s coming off an away win, and they’re playing in Games 2 through 11, resulted in those home teams going 34-6 SU (85%) since 2009. Give me the Eagles as a money line favorite. |
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09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers -10 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
Chicago @ Green Bay 8:20 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Green Bay -10.0 910*) Chicago is coming a 19-10 home win in their season opener last Sunday. However, we must avoid overreacting to that result especially after Green Bay’s double-digit defeat in their opening game. After all, Chicago is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 trips to Green Bay and they were outscored by an average of 13.4 points per game. Green Bay is coming off a 23-7 loss at Minnesota in a game they were thoroughly dominated. Before we stick a fork in the Packers after just 1 game, we must keep in mind how resilient this team has been following a regular season loss. Green Bay is 11-0 SU&ATS in their last 11 regular season games following a loss and won by an average of 13.4 points per contest. Any NFL home favorite of 4.5 or more (Packers) that’s coming off an away underdog ATS loss, and they’re facing a team (Bears) coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorite going 39-12 ATS (76.4%) since 1991. Give me the Packers minus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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09-18-22 | Falcons v. Rams UNDER 46.5 | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 1 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ LA Rams 4:05 PM ET Game# 277-278 Play On: Under 46.5 (5*) Since the 2019-2020 NFL regular season begam. The Rams have played 20-5 (80%) to the under at home whenever there was a total of 53.5 or less. On the other side of the table, during that identical time frame, Atlanta has played 6-0 to the under during road games when there was a total of 44.0 to 47.5 and there was a combined average of 38.5 points scored per contest. The Rams are coming off a season opening 31-7 home loss to Buffalo. Atlanta squandered a 16-point 4th quarter lead and fell 27-26 in their season opener. This sets up an extremely profitable NFL totals betting angle displayed below. Any NFL team with a total of 37.0 to 48.5 that’s coming off a home loss, versus an opponent (LA Rams) coming off a home loss by 10 points or more in which they allowed 45 points or fewer, resulted in those contests playing 29-1 (96.7%) to the under since 2018. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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09-18-22 | Washington Commanders +1.5 v. Lions | 27-36 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 2 m | Show | |
Washington @ Detroit 1:00 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Washington +1.5 (5*) Detroit of is coming off a season opening 38-35 home loss to Philadelphia. The Lions lost despite rushing for 181 yards and that’s difficult to do in the NFL. However, they also allowed Philadelphia to rush for 216 yards of their own. Detroit is now a dismal 6-22 SU in their last 28 at home. The Lions are also 1-7 SU at home since 2020 when the line is +3.0 to -3.0 and were outscored by an average of 10.6 points per game. Washington has gone a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 regular road games when the line was +3.5 to -3.5 under current head coach Ron Rivera and they won by an average of 9.0 points per game. The Commanders will look to carry the momentum over from last week’s come from behind 28-22 home win over Jacksonville. |
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09-18-22 | Panthers v. Giants -128 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 27 h 1 m | Show | |
Carolina @ NY Giants 1:00 ET Game# 273-274 Play On: NY Giants -128 (5*) Carolina is coming off a gut-wrenching 26-24 home loss to Cleveland. The Panthers lost that contest when Browns rookie kicker Cade York converted on a game winning 58-yard field goal with 0:13 left to play. That’s a difficult emotional setback to immediately overcome. It’s especially so when it took place at home and their next contest is away. The Giants showed a ton of character last week while overcoming a 13-0 halftime deficit last week and coming back to win 21-20 at Tennessee as a 5.5-point underdog. That was a Titans team which was the AFC #1 seed heading into last season’s playoffs. I look for the G-Men to ride that momentum into and through their home opener this Sunday. Any NFL home favorite of 3.0 or less (NY Giants) that’s coming off an upset win in game in which they were an away underdog of 10.0 or less, and they won that contest by 13-points or fewer, versus an opponent (Carolina) coming off a non-conference home loss, resulted in those home favorites going 17-0 SU and 14-0-3 ATS since 2006. Give me the NY Giants on the money line. |
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09-18-22 | Patriots -135 v. Steelers | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 0 m | Show | |
New England @ Pittsburgh 1:00 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: New England -135 Taking Pittsburgh in this game appears to have sucker play written all over it. The oddsmakers are begging you to take the home underdog Steelers and are preying on bettors who will overreact to what they witnessed in the opening week of action. Case in point, New England is coming off an awful performance in last week’s 20-7 loss at Miami. Conversely, Pittsburgh came away with a huge road win over division rival and the defending World Champion Cincinnati Bengals. However, it came at the expense of losing star defensive end T.J. Watt who suffered a shoulder injury and he'll be unable to play on Sunday. Give me New England on the money line. |
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09-17-22 | UTSA +13 v. Texas | 20-41 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 19 m | Show | |
UTSA @ Texas 8:00 PM ET Game# 193-194 Play On: UTSA +13.0 (5*) Texas is coming off a gut-wrenching 20-19 loss to then #1 Alabama in a game they closed as a massive 20.5-point home underdog. The Longhorns have their Big 12 Conference opener coming up next versus Texas Tech and this shapes up to be a flat spot for them emotionally on Saturday. After all, it’s just human nature when prediction Texas won’t come close to matching the intensity level and razor-sharp focus they displayed last week versus Alabama, and especially so versus an opponent from Conference USA. Furthermore, the top 2 quarterbacks on the Longhorns depth chart were injured in the Alabama loss and their 3rd stringer Maalik Murphy has been also sidelined with an undisclosed injury. They may be forced to go with 4th string quarterback Charles Wright. It’s also worth noting that star running back Bijan Robinson was also banged up and is listed as day-to-day. Getting up emotionally for this game won’t be an issue for the UTSA Roadrunners. The Roadrunners are coming off a 41-38 overtime win at Army and opened the season with a narrow 37-35 loss to then nationally ranked Houston. This is a UTSA program which has gone 16-4 SU in their last 20 games and includes 6-1 ATS and 4-3 SU as an underdog. I went with Texas +20.5 last Saturday but this week they will be a fade. Give me UTSA plus the points. |
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09-17-22 | Mississippi State -130 v. LSU | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -130 | 47 h 22 m | Show |
Mississippi State @ LSU 6:00 PM ET Game# 167-168 Play On: Mississippi State -130 (10*) LSU opened as a 1.0-point favorite in this contest and were overvalued at that simply because of their brand name. Don’t be misled by their 65-17 home blowout win last week over an FCS team in Southern University. This is a team in transition under new head coach Brian Kelly and their roster and their 2 deep roster is filled with first year transfers. Mississippi State has looked terrific during their 2-0 starts with a 49-23 home win over Memphis in their season opener and then last week’s 39-17 blowout of Arizona on the road. The Bulldogs will be out to revenge a narrow 28-25 home loss to LSU a season ago. The Bulldogs have held their own in its last 4 trips to Baton Rouge going 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS. The mad professor Mike Leach’s air raid attack has amassed a combined 770 yards passing in their first 2 games. Give me Mississippi State on the money line for a Top Play. |
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09-17-22 | Colorado State v. Washington State -16.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 46 h 21 m | Show | |
Colorado State @ Washington State 5:00 PM ET Game# 161-162 Play On: Washington State -16.5 (5*) Washington State is coming off a 17-14 upset win at Wisconsin and did so as a 20.5-point underdog. They will be facing a Colorado State team coming off a 34-19 upset loss to Middle Tennessee State at home in a game they closed as a 14.5-point favorite. This sets up and extremely profitable college football betting angle displayed below. Any college football home favorite of 11.0 to 30.0-points that coming off an upset win as a road underdog of 10.0 or greater has gone 22-1 ATS (95.6%) since 1990. If they’re facing an opponent coming off a loss, the betting angle improves to 13-0 ATS with an average victory margin of 30.9 points per game. Give me Washington State minus the points. |
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09-17-22 | Purdue v. Syracuse -118 | 29-32 | Win | 100 | 41 h 24 m | Show | |
Purdue @ Syracuse 12:00 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: Syracuse -118 (5*) Purdue is a solid team that should be a bowl team come season’s end. However, this will be a tough spot for them on the road versus a Syracuse team which has played well on both sides of the ball during their 2-0 start to the season. The Orange are +5 in the turnover department after wins over Connecticut 48-14 and Louisville 31-7. As a matter of fact, they committed no turnovers in those contests. The Orange outgained those 2 opponents by an average of 189.0 yards per game. Purdue is 1-1 after losing at home to Penn State 35-31 in their season opener and trouncing Indiana State 56-0 at home last week. Any college football home pick or favorite that’s coming off 2 consecutive wins in which they allowed 14 points or less, versus an opponent that scored 31 points or more in each of its previous 2 games, resulted in those home favorites going 45-2 SU (95.7%) since 2015. Give me Syracuse on the money line. |
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09-16-22 | Florida State v. Louisville +3 | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 43 m | Show | |
Florida State @ Louisville 7:30 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Louisville +3.0 (5*) Regarding betting trends, we took advantage of a similar situation last week by taking Texas +21.0 over Alabama. The Longhorns came oh so close to winning that game outright during a 20-19 defeat. In that scenario, over 80% of betting tickets and money was wagered on Alabama. Believe it or not, the betting trend percentages in this game exceed last week’s previously mentioned occurrence, and favors the small road favorite Florida State Seminoles. It’s worth repeating, more times than not when the betting percentages exceed 80% to one side, betting the other team is the right move. Florida State is coming off a 24-23 win over LSU last week in a game they closed as a 4.0-point underdog. However, let’s keep it real Seminoles backers, that’s an LSU team that was playing in their season opener while playing with a new coaching staff and large turnover in player personnel. The Seminoles also held a slight edge in respect to already having a game under the belt after defeating Duquesne in Week 0. This will be just the 4th time since 2018 that Florida State has been a road favorite. The Seminoles went 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU during the previous 3 in that exact role. Louisville showed a ton of character during last week’s 20-14 win at Central Florida in a contest they closed as a 5.5-point underdog. They Cardinals were down 14-7 in that contest, and it was on the heels of a dismal performance at Syracuse the week before which resulted in a 31-7 blowout loss. Yet, they outscored UCF 13-0 during 2nd half action to pull off a much-needed upset win. Look for them to carry that momentum into this week’s home opener. Give me Louisville plus the points. |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +4 v. Chiefs | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
LA Chargers @ Kansas City 8:15 PM ET Game# 103-104 Play On: LA Chargers +4.0 (5*) Since taking over as head coach in Kansas City, Any Reid has gone and outstanding 60-23 at home. However, 4 of those 23 home losses have come to the Chargers. He’s 5-4 SU and 3-6 ATS versus the Chargers at home. The current total in this game is 54.5. The Chiefs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games when the total was 49.5 or greater. That includes 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU if they were facing a divisional opponent. Both teams are coming off impressive opening game win over opponents that were playoff teams a season ago. Under current head coach Brandon Staley, the Chargers went 3-1 SU&ATS as an away underdog last season which included a 30-24 win at Kansas City as a 7.0-point underdog. Give me the Chargers plus the points. The Chiefs are coming off 44-21 win at Arizona in which they covered as a 6.0-point favorite. They’re now 24-8 in their last 32 games. Since 2003, any NFL away underdog (Chargers) of 6.0 or less, versus an opponent (Chiefs) coming off an away favorite ATS win it covered by 3.0 or more, and they’ve won 18 or more of their last 32 games, resulted in those away underdogs going 22-3 ATS (88%). The away underdog also won 19 of those 25 games straight up. Give me the Chargers plus the points. |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +6.5 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 81 h 21 m | Show | |
Denver @ Seattle 8:15 PM ET Game# 481-482 Play On: Seattle +6.5 (5*) Seattle isn’t a very good team at this juncture. Conversely, I believe the Russell Wilson factor in Denver certainly makes Denver better, but not to the point where they’re a better than touchdown road favorite in a season opening nationally televised Monday night game. Besides, under current head coach Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 13-1 ATS and 10-4 SU in their last 14 as a home underdog of +3.0 or greater. Seattle went 7-10 last season and is also 19-13 during it previous 32 at home. Any Monday night non-division home underdog (Seattle) that won 7 or more games during regular season action the year before and has also won 17 or more of its previous 32 at home, resulted in those home underdogs going 7-0 ATS since 1987. Those underdogs also won 5 of those 7 contests straight up. Give me Seattle plus the points. |
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09-11-22 | Bucs v. Cowboys +3 | 19-3 | Loss | -120 | 50 h 1 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay @ Dallas 8:20 PM ET Game# 481-488 Play On: Dallas +3.0 (-120) (5*) Dallas is coming off last year’s successful 12-5 regular season campaign. Since 1985, NFL Game 1 home teams that won 12 or more regular season games the year before are a superb 55-19 (74.3%) SU. Those SU results take on added betting value since the home team in this instance is an underdog. The Cowboys will also be playing with revenge stemming from last season’s opening game 31-29 loss at Tampa Bay. Tom Brady took a brief sabbatical during training camp to attend to family matters. I am skeptical about how mentally prepared he is going into this season even as great as his illustrious career has been. Since 2018, Dallas is a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS as a conference home underdog and averaged outscoring those opponents by a decisive margin of 13.5 points per game. Give me Dallas plus the points. |
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09-11-22 | Packers v. Vikings +1.5 | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 29 h 37 m | Show | |
Green Bay @ Minnesota 4:25 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Minnesota +1.5 (5*) I am not crazy about the Green Bay Packers wide receiver group and especially when compared to what they had at that position in recent years. The loss of Devante Adams who signed with Las Vegas was a huge blow. Minnesota is coming off a disappointing 8-9 season which ended the 8-year head coaching tenure of Mike Zimmer. However, they still have top shelf offensive skilled players that can create opposing defenses nightmares. Any NFL home team (Minnesota) that’s facing a division opponent in their season opener, and they won 8 or more regular season games the year before, resulted in those home teams going 83-30 SU (73.4%) since 1985. The SU results take on added significance since the Vikings are currently a small underdog. Furthermore, if those home teams were an underdog of +6.0 or less, and they were facing an opponent which won 11 or more regular season games the year before, those home teams went 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU since 1985. Give me the Vikings plus the small number. |
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09-11-22 | Chiefs v. Cardinals +7 | 44-21 | Loss | -120 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
Kansas City @ Arizona 4:25 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Arizona +7.0 (-120) (5*) Since Kliff Kingsbury head coaching tenure began in 2019, the Cardinals have been quite successful in getting off to good starts. Specifically speaking, during that time span Arizona has gone 10-2 ATS and 8-3-1 SU as an underdog during its first 8 games of the season. Furthermore, since 2020, Arizona is a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS as an underdog in Games 1 through 8 and won by an extremely impressive 19.4 points per contest. The Cardinals franchise has enjoyed much success as a non-conference home underdog by going 21-7 ATS (75%) and 19-8-1 SU. If they were an underdog of 2.5 or greater in those contests, the numbers improve to 18-4 (81.8%) ATS and 16-5-1 SU. Give me the Cardinals plus the points. |
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09-11-22 | Giants +5.5 v. Titans | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
NY Giants @ Tennessee 4:25 PM ET Game# 477-478 Play On: NY Giants +5.5 (10*) Tennessee has won 11 or more games in each of their previous 3 season. As a matter of fact, they were the AFC #1 seed last year entering the playoffs after recording a 12-5 regular season record. Nonetheless, their regular season win total over or under has dropped to 8.5. That speaks volumes to me regarding how the oddsmakers project the Titans to be a mediocre team at best. The Giants begin the Brian Daboll head coaching era on the road and as an underdog at Tennessee. Daboll inherits a team that went a poor 4-13 a season ago. As a matter of fact, since 2018, the Giants have gone a combined 19-46 and never won more than 6 games in a season. However, New York has gone an extremely profitable 12-2 ATS in their last 14 as an away underdog of 6.5 or less during that same time span. Any NFL Week 1 away underdog of 6.5 or less (Giants) who won 6 games or fewer in the previous season, resulted in those away underdogs going 45-13 (77.6%) since 2000. Give me the NY Giants plus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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09-11-22 | Steelers +7.5 v. Bengals | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 16 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati 1:00 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Pittsburgh +7.5 (5*) Since the start of the 2016 season, when play in games 1 through 9, Pittsburgh has gone an extremely profitable 10-2 ATS (83.3%) and 9-3 SU as an away underdog of 9.5 or less. The Steelers will have revenge on their mind after being swept in both regular season meetings against Cincinnati last season. The Steelers finished an uninspiring 8-8-1 last season but somehow it was good enough for the last Wild Card berth in the AFC. Any Game 1 division away underdog of 7.0 or less that lost both regular season meetings to their current opponent in the previous year, resulted in those away underdogs going 18-6 ATS (75%) since 1998. Furthermore, if those division away teams were an underdog of +3.5 to +6.5, then that exact NFL betting angle improves to 16-2 ATS (88.9%). Give me Pittsburgh plus the points. |
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09-10-22 | Houston +3.5 v. Texas Tech | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 54 h 33 m | Show | |
Houston @ Texas Tech 4:00 PM ET Game# 365-366 Play On: Houston +3.5 (5*) Texas Tech is coming off last Saturday’s 63-10 rout of Murray State and covered as a 38.0-point home favorite. Since 2020 the Red Raiders 0-4 SU&ATS off an ATS cover and when facing an opponent coming off a SU win. Texas Tech lost those 4 contests by an average of 25.6 points per game. Houston went 12-2 last season losing only to College Football Playoff participant Cincinnati and ironically enough Texas Tech. So, obviously the Cougars will be out for big time revenge. They almost got looking ahead in last week’s season opening 37-35 road win versus defending Conference USA champion UTSA. That was an experienced UTSA team that went 12-2 last season and began 2021 with a perfect 11-0 record. Give me Houston plus the points. |
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09-10-22 | Tennessee v. Pittsburgh +6.5 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 13 m | Show |
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh 3:30 PM ET Game# 347-348 Play On: Pittsburgh +6.5 (10*) Tennessee is coming off an encouraging 59-10 home blowout win in their season opener last Saturday and easily covered as a 37.0-point favorite. Regardless of that emphatic win, Tennessee has gone a dismal 0-5 ATS and 2-3 SU in their last 5 as an away favorite of 2.0 or greater. Pittsburgh is the higher ranked team, and the defending ACC champions. Yet, here they are as a touchdown underdog at home. Normally I would side with the sportsbooks in situations such as these, and then label it as a sucker play. Nevertheless, this is one of those very rare occasions I don’t have that mindset and falls under the category of there’s an exception to every sports betting rule. Recent seasons have displayed have shown me that when you disrespect Pat Narduzzi and the Panthers, it’s like poking the bear who was hibernating in his winter cave. Any college football Game 2 non-conference home underdog of 9.0 or less (Pittsburgh) that’s coming off a non-conference home SU win, but either pushed or failed to cover, versus an opponent (Tennessee) coming off a SU&ATS win in which they covered by 8.0 or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 14-0 ATS since 2002. Those underdogs also won 10 of those 14 games outright. Give me Pittsburgh plus the points as a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-10-22 | Colorado v. Air Force -17 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 53 h 5 m | Show | |
Colorado @ Air Force 3:30 PM ET Game# 351-352 Play On: Air Force -17.0 (5*) This one jumped right off the page at me. We have a service academy team from the Mountain West Conference as a more than 2-touchdown favorite over a Power 5 Conference team. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog. Well, I’m not falling for the bait. Colorado opened the season last Saturday with a terrible effort in a 38-13 blowout loss at home to TCU. That’s a TCU team that was playing with a new coaching staff and a large turnover in personnel. Furthermore, Colorado went 0-5 SU&ATS on the road last season and lost by 17.4 points per game. Air Force easily handled a good FCS program in Northern Iowa while walking away with a convincing 48-17 home win. The Falcons had an enormous 691 yards of total offense in that victory. Since 2020, Air Force has gone 3-0 SU&ATS as a double-digit home favorite versus FBS opponents and won by 25.3 points per game. Moreover, during that identical time span, Air Force was 6-0 SU&ATS immediately following a game in which they had 475 yards or more of total offense. Give me Air Force minus the points. |
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09-10-22 | Alabama v. Texas +21 | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 50 h 42 m | Show | |
Alabama @ Texas 12:00 PM ET Game# 335-336 Play On: Texas +21.0 (5*) You would have to be crazy to bet against Alabama after seeing them squash Utah State last week 55-0 and outgained them in total yards by 559-136. That would be the opinion of a vast majority of bettors this week based on early returns. Nonetheless, this line moved quickly from the opening number of 17.0 to 20.0. There also has been more than 80% of tickets and money wagered going on Alabama. The sportsbooks win a heck of a lot more than they lose when the betting trends are so lopsided toward one side. Besides, it’s not like Texas is a horrible team. The Longhorns opened their season with last Saturday’s 52-10 won over UL-Monroe and covered as a huge 37.0-point favorite. Texas pulled of the hat trick in that win by scoring on offense, defense, and special teams. You also know that offensive guru and head coach Steve Sarkisian didn’t come close to unveiling his playbook last week. I’m not willing go out on a limb and call for a Texas outright upset. However, really like their chances of staying inside this sizable number. |
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09-10-22 | North Carolina v. Georgia State +7.5 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 50 h 40 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Georgia State 12:00 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: Georgia State +7.5 (5*) Despite allowing 40 points in the 4th quarter last week at Appalachian State, North Carolina still managed to escape with a thrilling 63-61 win. Apparently by the price that ticket brokers were charging, that game was much bigger in North Carolina than the rest of the country realized. Now the Tar Heels go on the road for a 2nd consecutive week to take on another Sun Belt Conference opponent. Keep in mind, up next for North Carolina is a home game versus nationally ranked Notre Dame. This sets up as a flat spot for the Tar Heels. Additionally, the Tar Heels defense has allowed 84 points and 984 yards during their first 2 games. Georgia State lost their season opener last week 35-14 at South Carolina. However, the 35 points allowed is misleading since they held South Carolina to only 306 yards of total offense. So you can make a strong case that this will be the best defense that North Carolina would have faced so far in 2022. This line opened with Georgia State as a 9.0-point home underdog, and now it’s at 7.5 despite just 37% of tickets bet siding with the home side. Surely it sounds and smells like a sharp money move to me. Give me Georgia State plus the points. |
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09-10-22 | Duke v. Northwestern -9.5 | 31-23 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 39 m | Show | |
Duke @ Northwestern 12:00 PM ET Game# 329-330 Play On: Northwestern -9.5 (-115) (5*) Duke got off to a shining start last week as they blanked a hapless Temple team 30-0 at home. The red flag for me in that result is the fact that Duke amassed 510 yards of total offense in that contest but only managed to score 30 points. By the way, Duke has gone 0-8 SU&ATS in their last 8 away games and lost by a massive average of 25.6 points per contest. The average closing point-spreads for Duke in those 8 games was +8.5. Northwestern is coming off an impressive 31-28 season opening win over Nebraska in a game that played 2 weeks ago in Dublin, Ireland, and they did so as a closing 10.5-point underdog. The Wildcats racked up 538 yards of total offense in that game. Northwestern has gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of 4.0 or greater and they won by a decisive margin of 26.8 points per game. The Wildcats will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 30-23 loss at Duke last season. Any college football home favorite of 9.5 or great that’s coming off a double-digit underdog upset win in which they scored 31 points or more, and its playing game 2 through game 7 of their season, resulted in those home favorites going a very profitable 28-8 ATS (77.7%) since 1983. Give me Northwestern minus the points. |
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09-09-22 | Louisville +5.5 v. Central Florida | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 47 h 4 m | Show | |
Louisville @ Central Florida 7:30 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Louisville +5.5 (5*) Central Florida ran roughshod over South Carolina State in their 56-10 season opening win. However, that was against an opponent that competes at the FCS level and not a “Power 5 Conference” team coming up. Louisville was thoroughly embarrassed in a 31-7 lopsided loss to Syracuse last Saturday in a game they closed as a 5.0-point favorite. I look for the Cardinals to bounce back on Friday evening. The Cardinals have 8 returning starters from a team that scored 42 points and racked up 501 yards of total offense in a win over Central Florida last season. Give me Louisville plus the points. |
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09-04-22 | Florida State +4 v. LSU | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Florida State vs. LSU 7:.0 PM ET Game# 233-234 Play On: Florida State +4.0 (5*) It’s the debut of Brian Kelly as the new head coach of LSU. However, there’s been a huge personnel changeover and with a new coaching staff usually doesn’t equate to teams being sharp early in the season and especially so in their opener. Kelly has brought in 15 players from the transfer portal including former Arizona State quarterback Jayden Daniels. This is a crucial season for Florida State head coach Mike Norvell. The Seminoles have gone an extremely disappointing 8-13 during his first 2 seasons in Tallahassee. They return 9 players each on defense and offense and are #11 nationally in returning production. As a matter of fact, 32% of last year’s starts were by freshmen. Florida State saw 6 of their 12 games last season decided by exactly 3 points and they went 3-3 during those contests. Florida State is coming off last week’s 47-7 blowout win over Duquesne who’s plays at the FCS level. They were able to rack up 638 yards of total offense in that contest and included 406 of those on the ground. Granted the level of competition leaves a lot to be desired but having that game experience and facing an opponent that’s playing their season opener surely will be beneficial. Give me Florida State plus the points. |
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09-03-22 | Boise State v. Oregon State -2.5 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 36 h 19 m | Show | |
Boise State @ Oregon State 10:30 PM ET Game# 201-202 Play On: Oregon State -2.5 (5*) After recording 10 wins or more for 6 straight seasons excluding 2020 when Boise State played only 7 games due to covid, that streak came to an end under first year head coach Andy Avalos. Oregon State went 7-6 last season and made it to a bowl game for a first time since 2013. Ironically enough, there opponent in that bowl game was Boise State. Last season marked the first time also since 2013 that the Beavers finished with a winning record. It speaks volumes to me when a downtrodden program like Oregon State comes up favorite in this spot versus a perennial Top 25 team. Give me Oregon State minus the points. |
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09-03-22 | Notre Dame v. Ohio State UNDER 59.5 | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 34 h 48 m | Show | |
Notre Dame @ Ohio State 7:30 PM ET Game# 171-172 Play On: Under 59.5 (5*) Both Notre Dame and Ohio State bring back 8 returning starters on defense. Ohio State will look to replace a pair of starting wide receivers that were 1st round draft choices in the 2022 NFL draft. This will be only the 5th time that Notre Dame has been a double-digit underdog since 2016 and they average a paltry 14.2 points scored per game in those outings. Furthermore, the last 4 times Notre Dame found themselves in that exact situation, they played 4-0 to the under and there was a combined average of 40.5 points scored per game. Any college football game with a total of 56.5 to 63.0 where both defenses have 8 of more returning starters, and each team is from a “Power 5 Conference”, resulted in those contests playing 26-2 (92.9%) to the under since 2018. The average total in those 28 contests was 59.5 and there was a combined 48.8 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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09-03-22 | Army +2.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
Army @ Coastal Carolina 7:00 PM ET Game# 183-184 Play On: Army +2.5 (10*) Coastal Carolina returns only 7 starters from a program that’s won 11 games in each of their previous 2 quarterbacks. One of those returning starters is Grayson McCall but he won’t have the supporting cast he was afforded last season. Furthermore, Army is adept at dominating time of possession with their triple option running attack which in turn can keep opposing offenses on the sidelines. Coastal ended last season on a streak of 21 consecutive weeks ranked in the Top 25. However, here they are as a short home favorite and the sportsbooks are begging you to take them. Army has gone a combined 18-7 the last 2 seasons under current head coach Jeff Monken. Last year concluded with a 24-22 bowl win over Missouri from the SEC. The Black Knights return 14 starters including 8 on offense. Army will control the clock with long time-consuming scoring drives which will frustrate the Chanticleers. Give me Army plus the small number for a Top Play. |
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09-03-22 | Houston v. UTSA +4 | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
Houston @ UTSA 3:30 PM ET Game# 223-224 Play On: UTSA +4.0 This is a much bigger game for UTSA than Houston. The Roadrunners rarely get to host a nationally ranked opponent like #24 Houston. Houston returns 13 starters from a team that went 12-2 last season including a bowl game win over Auburn. Yet, this line opened as Houston being 6.5-point favorite and is now down to 4.0. UTSA is no slouch by any means. The Roadrunners went 12-2 last season and won the Conference USA title. It was the best win percentage and numbers of wins in program history. Since head coach Jeff Traylor took over as head coach in 2020, UTSA has gone 11-1 SU at home and that includes 9-0 in their last 9 at the Alamodome in San Antonio. Give me UTSA plus the points. |
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09-03-22 | North Carolina v. Appalachian State +105 | 63-61 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 3 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Appalachian State 12:00 PM ET Game# 177-178 Play On: Appalachian State +105 North Carolina is coming off a 6-7 season which marked the end of their star quarterback Same Howell’s collegiate career. Don’t ne mislead by the Tar Heels 56-24 blowout win over Florida A&M last week who had 24 players suspended. Even with that, North Carolina led that game by only 7 with less than 2 minutes remaining in the half. The Tar Heels do return 8 starters on defense, but that’s a unit which allowed 34 points or more in 8 of 13 games in 2021. Veteran head coach Mack Brown has brought in the nation’s #1 recruiting class in 2022. Nonetheless, they’ll be hard pressed to reach a bowl game this season and will most likely be much better in the 2nd half of the season if they improve at all. Appalachian State won’t be in awe of facing a Power 5 Conference opponent as they have been there and done that in recent years. However, it will be a rare opportunity to host one of those teams. This is a Mountaineers program which has won 43 games including 3 postseason bowl contests during the past 4 season. They also appeared in 3 Sun Belt Conference Championship games over that stretch while winning 2 of those contests. |
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09-01-22 | West Virginia v. Pittsburgh -7 | 31-38 | Push | 0 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
West Virginia @ Pittsburgh 7:00 PM ET Game# 143-144 Play On: Pittsburgh -7.0 (5*) West Virginia went 6-7 last season and returns very little production on both sides of the ball. Pittsburgh went 11-3 last season and won the ACC title. The Panthers lost starting quarterback Kenny Pickett who was a 1st round pick by the Steelers and star wide receiver’s Jordan Addison who transferred to USC. However, they still return 16 starters and were able to grab former USC starting quarterback Kedon Slovis in the transfer portal. Pittsburgh has gone a solid 19-9 in their last 28 at home. Any non-conference college football home favorite of 4.0 to 10.0-points (Pittsburgh) playing in an opening game of the season, and they won 10 games or more during the previous year, and they’ve won 22 or fewer of their last 28 at home, versus an opponent (West Virginia) that won 6 or fewer games in the previous season, resulted in those home teams going 13-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average margin of victory in those 13 contests came by a decisive 20.0 points per game and the average line was 8.0. Give me Pittsburgh minus the points. |
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02-13-22 | Rams v. Bengals UNDER 49 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show | |
Cincinnati @ LA Rams 6:30 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Under 49.0 (5*) Cincinnati has gone under in each of their 3 postseason games, and I don’t expect this result to produce anything different. The Bengals have scored only 5 touchdowns in those contests. However. their rookie placekicker Evan McPherson was a perfect 12-for-12 on field goals. Which simply equates to moving the ball consistently but struggling mightily to finish off drives with a touchdown. Now Cincinnati’s offense be facing arguably the best defense it has gone up against this postseason. Additionally, Cincinnati has gone under the total in each of their previous 5 road games. The Rams have played 6-1 to the under in their last 7 at home. The Rams have gone under in both postseason home games, and they allowed only 14.0 points and 232.5 yards per game. Give me this game to go under the total. |
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02-13-22 | Rams -4 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 28 m | Show |
LA Rams vs. Cincinnati 6:30 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: LA Rams -4.0 (10*) Cincinnati allowed 55 sacks of their quarterbacks during regular season action. Only Baltimore and Chicago were worse in that statistical category. Conversely, the Rams defense amassed 50 sacks during regular season which was 3rd best among all NFL teams. The Bengals have allowed 12 more sacks in the postseason, and it includes 9 during their upset win at Tennessee. Cincinnati has rushed for less than 100 yards in all 3 postseason games. On the other hand, Los Angeles has limited their 3 postseason opponents to 61 yards or fewer rushing and permitted a mere 3.1 yards per carry. The Rams are coming off a win over bitter division rival San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game. Since the 2019-2020 season began, the Rams are 15-4 SU&ATS immediately following a division game and includes 7-1 SU&ATS if they played at home. The Rams enter the Super Bowl having won 8 of its last 9 games. Their only loss during that stretch came by 3 to San Francisco in a game they squandered a 17-point lead. The Los Angeles running game is much better than their season statistics indicate. They were without star running back Cam Ackers until their regular season finale. Their passing game has been dynamic this season and ranked #5 during NFL regular season action while amassing 273.1 yards per game. They’ll be facing a Cincinnati defense which was 26th against the pass in allowing 248.1 yards per contest. This is a bad matchup for Cincinnati on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati won’t be able to sustain a consistent running game against a stout Rams defense. Furthermore, the Bengals offensive line will struggle mightily in protecting Joe Burrow. That’s not a winning formula by any stretch of the imagination. Give me the LA Rams minus the points. |
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01-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 46 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 56 m | Show |
San Francisco @ LA Rams 6:40 PM ET Game# 323-324 Play On: Under 46.0 (10*) The Rams are coming off a thrilling 30-27 win at Tampa Bay and that game went over the total of 48.0. Los Angeles has played 6-0 to the under (40.8 PPG) in their last 6 following a game in which they went over. As a matter of fact, the Rams haven’t gone over in consecutive games since 10/3/2021. Since the start of the 2019-202 season, the Rams have played 16-6 (72.7%) to the under as a home favorite. San Francisco has played 6-1 to the under in their last 7 and with a combined average of 39.1 points scored per game. The 49ers run defense has been outstanding in recent games. They’ve allowed 90 yards rushing or less in their previous 7 and 10 of its last 11 games. San Francisco entered the season as the NFC #6 seed. Since the 2013 postseason, NFL #6 seeds have played 26-6 (81.2%) to the under. The average total in those 32 contests was 46.1 and there was a combined average of 40.1 points scored per game. Bet this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager. Furthermore, throughout their previous 6 games, the 49ers stop unit has allowed 15.2 points per contests and 307 yards or fewer on each occasion. Bet this game to go under the total for a Top Play wager. |
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01-30-22 | Bengals +7.5 v. Chiefs | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 19 m | Show | |
Cincinnati @ Kansas City 3:05 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: Cincinnati +7.5 (5*) Kansas City is coming off an emotionally draining 42-36 overtime win versus Buffalo last Sunday. The media has pretty much convinced numerous bettors that the AFC Championship Game versus an upstart Cincinnati team is merely a formality. Granted the Chiefs are 11-1 in their last 12 game. However, their lone loss came to these very same Bengals in a game Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow torched the suspect Kansas City secondary for 422 passing yards. If the Bengals defense steps up in this one, they’ll have an opportunity to pull off an upset. Otherwise, there’s an ample amount offensive firepower for Cincinnati to keep this game competitive and inside the number. Bet Cincinnati plus the points. |
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01-23-22 | Bills +2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 10 m | Show |
Buffalo @ Kansas City 6:30 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Buffalo +2.5 (10*) So, the Kansas City Chiefs are 10-1 in their last 11 games, the higher seed in this matchup, but they’re just a 1.5-point home favorite. The oddsmakers and early sharp money are huge indicators as to who the right side in this contest. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the red-hot Chiefs at this small of a number. Granted Kansas City has been exceptional in the 2nd half of the regular season and into the playoffs. However, Buffalo is currently on a 5-game win streak and held those opponents to 15.4 points and 237.2 yards per contest. By the way, the Chiefs have accumulated 378 yards or more of total offense in each of their previous 5 games. Nonetheless, Kansas City is just 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS at home immediately following 4 straight games in which they had 375 yards or more of total offense. The Bills outgained New England by a massive margin of 177 yards during their 47-17 home blowout win last Saturday. Since the start of the 2019-202 season, Buffalo is 8-0 SU on the road following a game in which they outgained their opponent by 100 yards or more and had a decisive average victory margin of 18.4 points per contest. The Bills are one of just a few NFL teams that can match Kansas City’s offensive explosiveness. Bet Buffalo for a Top Play wager. |
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01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs -2.5 | 30-27 | Loss | -117 | 46 h 42 m | Show | |
LA Rams @ Tampa Bay 3:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Tampa Bay -2.5 (5*) The Rams will receive plenty of public action as an underdog after bettors witnessed last Monday night’s dominating 34-11 win over Arizona. However, they’ll be facing the defending world champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS at home this season. The Bucs will also be playing with revenge stemming from 34-24 loss at Los Angeles in Week 3 action. Tampa Bay enters this Divisional Round matchup having won 8 of its last 9 games and covered on 6 of those occasions. Furthermore, the Bucs have gone 14-2 SU this season against all teams who are not named the New Orleans Saints, and that includes 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS at home. At this time of year, winning the turnover battle is usually a precursor to who wins and covers. Tampa Bay has an inspiring turnover margin of +6 during their current 4-game win streak. Additionally, they committed only 1 turnover during that stretch. Conversely, the Rams have committed 11 turnovers in their last 5 away games. Bet Tampa Bay minus the small number. |
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01-22-22 | 49ers v. Packers OVER 47 | 13-10 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
San Francisco @ Green Bay 8:15 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Over 47.0 (5*) Since Matt Lafleur took over as head coach in Green Bay, his teams have played 7-0 to the over in January games and with a combined average of 54.0 points scored per game. Since 2017, Green Bay has played in 4 home playoff games with all going over the total and there was a combined average of 52.3 points scored per contest. Furthermore, Green Bay has played 6-1 to the over in its last 7 games and scored 30 points or more on 6 of those occasions. You may be surprised to know that San Francisco has scored 23 points or more in 8 of their last 9 games. Bet on this game to go over the total. |
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01-22-22 | Bengals +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show |
Cincinnati @ Tennessee 4:30 PM ET Game# 301-302 Play On: Cincinnati +3.5 (10*) Tennessee star running back Derrick Henry returns from injury after missing 9 games. However, it’s unlikely he will be given a heavy workload after that long hiatus. The Titans went only 4-3 SU in their last 7 games and included a home loss to lowly Houston. The Titans have allowed 280 yards or more passing 8 times this season. This has been an area of concern for 2 years now, and against a talented young quarterback (Joe Burrow) and group of receivers that Cincinnati possesses, there’s a good chance they’ll be further exposed. Cincinnati has gone 5-2 SU this season versus teams that made the playoffs, and their lone 2 losses came in overtime against Green Bay and San Francisco. Give me Cincinnati plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals +4 v. Rams | Top | 11-34 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
Cardinals @ Rams 8:15 PM ET Game# 151-152 Play On: Cardinals +4.0 (10*) The Cardinals finished the regular season by losing 4 of its last 5 games. However, Arizona was a terrific 8-1 SU&ATS on the road this season and that includes 6-0 SU&ATS as an underdog. It’s not like they feasted on a bunch of creampuffs. The Cardinals defeated 4 teams that qualified for the playoffs on the road in Dallas, LA Rams, Tennessee, and San Francisco. Conversely, the Rams went just 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS at home this season. Furthermore, Los Angeles was a dismal 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home versus teams that finished regular season action with a winning record. The road teams won and covered both games between these division rivals this season. Bet Arizona plus the points. |
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01-16-22 | Steelers v. Chiefs -12.5 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 55 h 15 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh @ Kansas City 8:15 PM ET Game# 143-144 Play On: Kansas City -12.5 (5*) These teams just met in Kansas City just 3 weeks ago and the Chiefs walked away with a 36-10 blowout win. I look for more of the same on Sunday night. Additionally, the Chiefs are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home with an average victory margin of 22.0 points per game. Conversely, Pittsburgh is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 non-division contest and were outscored by 21.7 points per game. Bet on Kansas City minus the points. By the way, NFL postseason home favorites of 10.5 or more have gone 9-0 SU&ATS since 2011 and outscored their opponents by an average of 18.7 points per game. |
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01-16-22 | 49ers +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 52 h 32 m | Show |
San Francisco @ Dallas 4:30 PM ET Game# 147-148 Play On: San Francisco +3.0 (10*) Dallas (13-5) is the NFC East champion and finished the regular season going 5-1 SU&ATS in their final 6 regular season contests. Yet, they opened and remain just a 3.0-point favorite versus an opponent that needed to overcome a 17-3 halftime deficit in their final regular season game just to qualify for the postseason. Since 2019, Dallas has gone 4-11 SU and 3-12 ATS when their point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0. The 49ers have been chasing the Rams and Cardinals all season when it comes to the NFC West standing and it became clear their only path to the postseason was a wildcard berth. So, they’ve been in win or go home mode over the final few weeks of regular season action. I look for that to pay dividends in this contest. Furthermore, the 49ers have been better on the road than at home this season. San Francisco is 7-2 SU in away games. Since the 2019-2020 season began, the 49ers are 4-1 SU&ATS in away games when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0. Bet the 49ers plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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01-16-22 | Eagles +10 v. Bucs | 15-31 | Loss | -120 | 48 h 5 m | Show | |
Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay 1:00 PM ET Game# 145-146 Play On: Philadelphia +10.0 (5*) I was quite surprised when Tampa Bay opened as just an 8.5-point favorite in this game. My personal power numbers which are usually accurate had Tampa Bay as a 10.5-point chalk. Having said that, you would think I would be all over the Bucs but quite the contrary. Like I’ve said may times over the years, I don’t fear the oddsmakers but genuinely respect their ability to set an accurate line. So, my conclusion is this is a fishy line, and the sportsbooks are begging you to take the defending world champion Bucs versus a Philadelphia team which is 9-8 and failed to beat a team all season that finished with a winning record. Bet Philadelphia plus the points. |
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01-15-22 | Patriots v. Bills -4.5 | Top | 17-47 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
New England @ Buffalo 8:15 PM ET Game# 143-144 Play On: Buffalo -4.5 (10*) Buffalo has scored 27 points or more in each of their last 5 games. Since Sean McDermott has taken over as head coach in Buffalo, the Bills are an unbeaten 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS at home after scoring 25 points or more in each of their previous 2 games. Since 2009, Wildcard Round teams that win straight up have gone 47-8 ATS (85.4%). Do you see where I am going with this? I hope so. Since Bill Belichick took over as head coach in New England, his Patriots team have gone 36-8 versus Buffalo. However, since the start of last season which coincides with the departure of Tom Brady, New England is 1-3 SU&ATS versus Buffalo. Furthermore, heading into Week 15 of this season, New England held a comfortable 2.0 game lead over Buffalo in the AFC East standings. Then they lost 3 of their last 4 while Buffalo put together a 4-game win streak. One of those defeats was a 33-21 home setback to Buffalo in a game they were outgained 448-288. They will be playing against a Buffalo defense that’s allowed 15 points or fewer and 275 yards or less in each of their last 4 at home. Many people will jump all over a Bill Belichick coached New England team as a playoff underdog. I’m not one of them. Give me Buffalo minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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01-15-22 | Raiders +6 v. Bengals | 19-26 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
Las Vegas @ Cincinnati 4:30 PM ET Game# 141-142 Bet On: Las Vegas +6.0 (5*) This is an extremely young and talented Cincinnati team which is way ahead of schedule. Nevertheless, they’ll ne to shake the ghosts of past franchise playoff failures. Cincinnati has lost 8 consecutive playoff games, failed to cover in 7 of those contests, and with 4 of those contests played at home. The Raiders were hanging on by a thread of hope a 5 weeks ago with a 6-7 record with regards to their playoff aspirations. Then they miraculously went on a 4-game win streak and got some help along the way to reach postseason action. They will also be out to avenge a deceiving 32-13 home loss to Cincinnati earlier this season in a contest they were only outgained 288-278. Bet Las Vegas plus the points. |
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01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Georgia vs. Alabama 8:27 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Georgia -2.5 (10*) These teams squared off just 5 weeks ago in the SEC Championship game and Alabama won 41-24 as a 6.0-point underdog. The Crimson Tide offense racked up 536 yards versus the vaunted Georgia defense which included a huge day from Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Young who threw for 421 yards and 3 touchdowns. Despite that convincing win, Alabama is currently a 2.5-point underdog, and the public is betting on Alabama like it’s found money on their doorsteps. Even with that poor performance versus Alabama, Georgia’s defense still ranks #1 nationally in points allowed (9.5 PPG) and #2 in yards allowed (254.4 YPG). This elite stop unit was embarrassed versus Alabama and look for them to come up with a huge effort tonight. The Georgia defense has received a plethora of accolades all season and rightfully so. However, Georgia’s offense has quietly averaged a quite impressive 46.6 points scored, and 486.5 yards gained per game over its last 6 contests. That includes racking up 449 yards in the loss to Alabama. The first time these teams met Georgia entered that contest 12-0 and was 99.9% sure that even with a loss they were going to be in the 4-team College Football Playoffs. Conversely, Alabama didn’t have that same luxury since they already had 1 loss on their regular season resume and it was highly improbable they would be part of the 4-team field as a 2-loss team. As a result, the Crimson Tide played with a far higher degree of urgency and desperation than Georgia displayed. I’m betting on Georgia to turn the table on their SEC rival. Lastly, Georgia has lost their last 7 meetings with Alabama, and yet here they are still a favorite in a National Championship Game. Alabama in this matchup. Bet Georgia minus the small number. |
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01-09-22 | Chargers v. Raiders +3 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
Chargers @ Raiders 8:20 PM ET Game# 481-482 Play On: Raiders +3.0 (10*) Whoever wins this game will be in the postseason parade and the loser won’t be a participant. The Chargers are coming off a 34-13 home win over Denver. Nevertheless, the Chargers are 1-4 SU&ATS in their last 5 following a win. Additionally, they’re 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away games when they’re +3.0 to -3.0 and are coming off a win and were outscored by 12.7 points per contest. The Chargers have scored 28 points or more in each of their last 5 games. However, throughout their previous 3 contests, the Chargers defense has allowed 29.3 points and 417.3 yards per game. Moreover, since 2019, the Chargers are 0-6 SU on the road following a game in which they scored 30 points or more and lost by an average of 10.0 points per game. The Raiders are coming off a huge win at Indianapolis last Sunday which extended their unbeaten streak to 3 games. What’s eye catching to me is they won those 3 games despite being having a combined turnover margin of -7. What’s been their main catalyst is a defense that allowed 15.7 points and 218.7 yards per game during this current win streak. Las Vegas will also be out to revenge a 28-14 road loss to the Chargers earlier this season. I look for the Raiders to come up with a huge effort on Sunday night and give their newly ordained city of Las Vegas a taste of playoff football for a first time. Bet the Raiders plus the points. |
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01-09-22 | Patriots v. Dolphins +6.5 | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
Patriots @ Dolphins 4:25 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Dolphins +6.5 (5*) Miami was eliminated from playoff contention after last week’s extremely poor performance which resulted in a 34-3 loss at Tennessee. However, there’s a high degree of certainty that the Dolphins aren’t going to just lay down on Sunday. Their track record since Brian Flores took over as head coach in 2019 is indicative of such. During Flores rookie campaign, Miami started 0-7 but rallied to go 5-4 over their last 9 contests. Last season, Miami began 1-3 but proceeded to win 9 of their next 11 games. This season, they started 1-7 then when on a 7-game win streak before last Sunday’s loss halted that hot run. For as much success as Bill Belichick has attained since becoming the head coach in New England, his teams have gone just 9-12 SU and 8-13 ATS in their games at Miami. That includes 2-6 SU&ATS in their last 8 trips to South Florida. Bet the Dolphins plus the points. |
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01-09-22 | 49ers v. Rams -4 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
49ers @ Rams 4:25 PM ET Game# 479-480 Play On: Rams -4.0 (5*) The 49ers need a win or a New Orleans loss to Atlanta to make the playoffs. Just because they need the game so badly, doesn’t mean the Rams are going to give it to them. Especially after Loss Angeles was embarrassed at San Francisco earlier this season during a 31-10 shellacking in which the 49ers dominating physically on both sides of the ball. They’ll not only be out to avenge that loss but are 0-5 in their last 5 versus their divisional in stater rival. Besides, with a win on Sunday the Rams clinch the NFC West Division and a #2 seed. I’m looking for an inspired effort by the Rams and for even more reasons that I already mentioned. Bet the Rams minus the points. |
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01-09-22 | Seahawks v. Cardinals -5.5 | 38-30 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
Seahawks @ Cardinals 4:25 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Cardinals -5.5 (5*) Arizona is still alive in the NFC West Division title chase and #2 seed but they must win for them to have any chance of that occurring. Regardless is they win the division or not, the Cardinals need to build some momentum and confidence going into the postseason. They took a step in the right direction last week with a huge win at Dallas as a 5.5-point underdog which snapped a 3-game losing skid. Arizona won at Seattle on 11/21 by a score of 23-13 and outgained the Seahawks by a wide 413-266 margin. Seattle is coming off a 51-29 home win over Detroit. Nevertheless, the Seahawks are 1-4 SU&ATS this season following a win with their lone win and cover in that precise situation coming against the hapless 4-12 Houston Texans. Kyler Murray will torch a Seahawks defense that’s allowing 270.4 yards passing per game which is 31st in the NFL. On the other hand, Arizona is #8 in passing offense at 255.6 yards per game. Bet Arizona minus the points. |
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01-09-22 | Packers v. Lions +3.5 | 30-37 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
Packers @ Lions 1:00 PM ET Game# 451-452 Play On: Lions +3.5 (5*) Green Bay has already clinched the top seed in the NFC and a first-round bye in the upcoming playoffs. Barring something unforeseen, the Packers will rest or give limited playing time to key starters on Sunday in Detroit. Conversely, this is a Lions team that has fought hard this season for head coach Dan Campbell despite their many shortcomings and horrible 2-13-1 record. I don’t expect that kind of effort to wane in their regular season finale at home versus a bitter rival. The Lions are 4-0 ATS and 2-2 SU in its last 4 at home versus Green Bay. Detroit has also lost 5 games this season by 4 points or fewer. The Lions are coming off last week’s 51-29 SU&ATS loss at Seattle. Here’s a hidden gem of a trend, Detroit is 5-0 ATS this season following a game in which they failed to cover. The Lions are also 6-2 SU&ATS in their last 8 games overall. Bet Detroit plus the points. |
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01-09-22 | Steelers v. Ravens -3.5 | 16-13 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
Steelers @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Ravens -3.5 (5*) The Ravens enter this week on a 5-game losing streak and their playoff chances hanging by a thread. Yet, they opened as a 6.5-point favorite versus a division rival who has scant playoff hopes as well. The Steelers did stay alive in the playoff hunt with a 26-14 home win over Cleveland last week. Nonetheless, Pittsburgh hasn’t won 2 in a row in a little over 2 months. The drastic line movement in this game is a result of Lamar Jackson being ruled doubtful to play. However, I have no trouble backing Ravens backup quarterback Tyle Huntley who has shown he’s plenty capable when given the opportunity this season. Public betting has backed the underdog Steelers in this matchup. There are worse ideas than betting against public money. Bet the Ravens minus the points. |
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01-09-22 | Titans -10 v. Texans | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
Titans @ Texans 1:00 PM ET Game# 463-464 Play On: Titans -10.0 (5*) I predict that Tennessee will jump on Houston early in this matchup and take the Texans will away. Beside the fact, they should’ve learned their lesson already after losing to Houston earlier this season as an identical 10.0-point favorite they currently are. With a #1 seed on the line, and playing with revenge, the Titans will be plenty motivated against the 4-12 Texans. This is a Houston team that’s scored 14 points or fewer on 9 occasions this season and failed to reach 300 yards of total offense in 9 of its last 14 games. They will be up against a Titans defense which has allowed 9.7 points and 251.3 yards over their previous 4 contests. Bet Tennessee minus the points. |
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01-08-22 | Cowboys -3.5 v. Eagles | 51-26 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Dallas @ Philadelphia 8:15 PM ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Dallas -3.5 (5*) Both teams will be missing key personnel via COVID protocols, illness, or injury. Philadelphia has clinched an NFL wildcard spot and it’s just a matter if they will be the #6 or #7 seed. The Eagles do head into this matchup on a 4-game win streak. However, those wins came against the Jets, Giants, and Football Team (Twice) who have a current combined record of 14-34. As a matter of fact, the Eagles don’t own a win all season versus a team who currently possesses a winning record. On the other hand, Dallas has clinched the NFC East Division, and they’re currently the #4 seed. They can move up to the #2 or #3 seed but they need to win and get a little bit of help. If the season ended today, Dallas would have a tough 1st round matchup versus either the Arizona Cardinals or Los Angeles Rams. All the Cowboys can do is control what they can control and that’s beating Philadelphia. They will do exactly that and by a decisive margin. Dallas has been a solid road team this season while going 6-2. Even more impressive was that 3 of their road opponents and 2 more are still alive for a postseason berth heading into this week. Furthermore, and most importantly, Dallas is a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS as a road favorite this season. Bet Dallas minus the points. |
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01-08-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos +11 | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
Kansas City @ Denver 4:30 PM ET Game# 477-478 Play On: Denver +11.0 (5*) The Broncos limp into this regular season finale with a 7-9 record and have gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 games. The biggest issue has been an offense that produced 13 points or fewer in each of those defeats. On the other, the Broncos defense has been strong more times than not this season. As a matter of fact, heading into this week, Denver is #9 in total defense (322.1 YPG), #3 in scoring defense (18.4 PPG), and #7 in pass defense (212.3 YPG). If Denver’s offense is every going to get going it would be on Saturday versus a Kansas City defense that’s #26 in total defense, #27 in sacks, and #28 against the pass. The Kansas City defense is also coming off a game at Cincinnati where they allowed the Bengals to rack up 475 yards or total offense in a 34-31 loss. The Broncos lost at Kansas City 41-21 on 12/5. However, that final score is a bit misleading since Denver outgained Kansas City 464-267 in total yards but shot themselves in the foot with a turnover margin of -3. Since that loss, the Broncos have committed just 2 turnovers in 4 games. Bet Denver plus the points. |
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01-04-22 | LSU +7.5 v. Kansas State | 20-42 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
LSU vs. Kansas State 9:00 PM ET Game# 285-286 Play On: LSU +7.5 (5*) LSU will be missing several players for various reasons in addition to playing with an interim coaching staff. However, there’s still enough talented players and quality depth for them to make this an extremely close game if not pulling off an outright upset. The Tigers defense showed vast improvement in the final third of their regular season schedule. Specifically speaking, LSU held their last 4 opponents 18.5 points and 299.5 yards gained per game. It’s not like they were facing all creampuffs over that stretch with 3 of those contests coming against #1 Alabama, #8 Ole Miss, and #23 Texas A&M. The Bayou Bengals stop unit will be going against a Kansas State offense that was held under 300 total yards in each of their previous 3 games. Bet LSU plus the points. |
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01-02-22 | Broncos v. Chargers -7.5 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
Broncos @ Chargers 4:05 PM ET Game# 121-122 Play On: Chargers -7.5 (10*) These teams met just 5 weeks in Denver and the Broncos walked away with an easy 28-10 win. Yet, the oddsmakers weren’t deterred by that result based in this current point-spread. Additionally, Denver is coming off a pir of deflating losses 15-10 versus Cleveland and 17-13 to Las Vegas. That really put a dent into their postseason hopes and their overall confidence level. Los Angeles is also coming off losses to Houston 41-29 as a 13.0-point road favorite and in overtime to Kansas City. As a result, the Chargers are on the outside of the playoff bubble looking in with an 8-7 record. The Chargers will be facing a Denver team which has struggled to score at times this season. As a matter of fact, Denver has scored 13 points or fewer in 6 of their last 12 games. That hasn’t been the Chargers problem of late. During their last 4 outings, Los Angeles has averaged 33.8 points scored and 407.8 yards gained per game. NFL betting history show that teams like the Chargers in this exact situation have passed the test with flying colors. Any division favorite of 4.5 or greater that’s playing with revenge, and they’re coming off a non-division straight up favorite loss by 10 points or more, resulted in those favorites going 16-0 ATS since 1985. Furthermore, they won those contests by an enormous 20.3 points per game and their average line was -7.2. Bet the Chargers minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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01-02-22 | Falcons v. Bills -14.5 | 15-29 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 9 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Buffalo 1:00 PM ET Game# 107-108 Play On: Buffalo -14.5 (5*) Atlanta is coming off a narrow 20-16 home win over hapless Detroit Lions (2-12-1) which improved their season record to 7-8 and still alive for an NFC wildcard spot. However, Atlanta has beaten just 1 team that currently has a winning record, and that was Miami (8-7). The Falcons have gone a dismal 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 following a win and were outscored by an average of 19.3 points per game. Buffalo enters this week 9-6, leading the AFC East, and coming off a huge win at New England last Sunday. Some will say they’re vulnerable to a flat spot. I disagree with that idea. It’s not like the Bills win over New England came in Week 8. Heading into their final 2 games both at home knowing with wins they clinch the AFC East Division for a 2nd year in a row. Buffalo also learned their lesson earlier this season when they lost at Jacksonville as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, all 9 Buffalo wins have come by 12 points or more, and they have outscored their opponents by an average of 10.9 points per game which is #1 in that category amongst all NFL teams. Lastly, Buffalo is 3-0 SU&ATS this season as a double-digit home favorite and with an average victory margin of 24.0 points per game. Bet Buffalo minus the points. |
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01-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bengals +4.5 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show | |
Chiefs @ Bengals 1:00 PM ET Game# 115-116 Play On: Bengals +4.5 (5*) Cincinnati will play with a higher degree of urgency and desperation in this contest than Kansas City will display. The Chiefs have won 8 consecutive games and has already clinched the AFC West Division. Yes, they are only 1.0 game ahead of Tennessee for the top AFL seed with the Titans holding the tiebreaker. Nevertheless, the Chiefs have been a great road team in recent seasons and are a much better team than Tennessee at this juncture. The point being, Kansas City comes into this contest knowing they have a lot of room for error and very little to lose. On the other hand, Cincinnati can clinch the AFC North with a win on Sunday. If they lose, then it’s a regular season finale at Cleveland which could hinge on even making the playoffs. Bet the Bengals plus the points. |
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01-02-22 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Titans | 3-34 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
Dolphins @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Game# 119-120 Play On: Dolphins +3.5 Tennessee (10-5) may possess the better record in this matchup, but you can make a strong cast that presently Miami (8-7) is the superior team. After a 1-7 start, Miami has won 7 straight games and covered on 6 of those occasions. The Dolphins sizzling hot run has catapulted them to the AFC #7 seed and final wildcard spot. Even with that, Miami knows they have very little if any room for error. I’ve been saying this for weeks now, without Derek Henry, Tennessee is a fraudulent Super Bowl contender. This upcoming result will exemplify just that. Bet the Dolphins plus the points. |
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