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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-30-18 | Lions v. Cowboys UNDER 44.5 | 24-26 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 6 m | Show | |
Detroit @ Dallas 1:00 PM ET Game# 259-260 Play On: Under 44.5 (5*) Dating back to last season, Dallas has gone under the total in 7 straight contests, and there was a combined average of only 30.0 points scored per game. Since 2014, Detroit has gone 15-4 under during road games if there was a total of 45.0 or less. Furthermore, if the Lions allowed 19 points or fewer in their previous contest, they improved to 8-0 under in that precise situation. Detroit is averaging 393.3 yards of total offense per game. The Lions are coming off a dominating performance during a 26-10 win over New England in which they outgained the Patriots by a massive 205 yards. The Cowboys offense has been anemic thus far. However, the Dallas defense is allowing just 17.7 points and 281.0 yards per game. All this statistical data sets up an extremely profitable NFL totals betting angle which is displayed below. Any NFL team (Detroit) that averages 370 yards or more of total offense, and they outgained their previous opponent by 200 yards or more, versus a team (Dallas) who’s allowing the opposition 265 to 295 yards per game, resulted in those games going 25-4 (86.2%) under the total since 1983. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 5* wager. |
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09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
Miami @ New England 1:00 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: New England -6.5 (10*) We have a 1-2 team in New England who’s favorite against the 3-0 Miami Dolphins. An impulse reaction would lead you to taking the underdog in this spot just based on common sense alone. However, solely relying on common sense when it comes to NFL handicapping is the shortest route to betting poverty. New England has gone a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS during their last at home against Miami, and they won those contests by an average of 21.6 points per game. After beginning the season with a home win over Houston, New England preceded to lose 2 straight road games to Jacksonville and Detroit. Since 2011, New England is 4-0 SU&ATS following back to back losses and won by a decisive margin of 16.7 points per game. The Patriots are also 7-0 SU&ATS (+18.8 ppg) in their last 7 as a home favorite when facing an opponent who’s won 3 or more games in a row. Miami is 0-6 SU&ATS since 2015 as an away underdog of 6.0 to 13.0-points and when going up against an opponent who’s recorded at least 1 win on the season. Bet on New England minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-29-18 | Toledo +9.5 v. Fresno State | 27-49 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 7 m | Show | |
Toledo @ Fresno State 10:35 PM ET Game# 155-156 Play On: Toledo +9.5 (5*) Fresno State is coming off a 38-14 road win at UCLA. But let’s not get carried away with that victory since UCLA is 0-3 to start the season. The Bulldogs will enter Saturday’s game having gone an uninspiring 15-13 during its last 28 home games. Toledo is coming off a 63-44 win over Nevada in which they covered as an 11.5-point favorite. The Rockets are 16-6 during its last 22 games played. Any underdog of 3.5 to 10.0 points (Toledo) that coming off an ATS favorite win in which they scored 42 points or more, and they’ve won 11 or more of their last 22 games played, versus an opponent (Fresno State) coming off a win by 17 points or more, and they’ve won 11 or more of its previous 28 home games, resulted in those underdogs going 16-0 ATS since 2014. Those underdogs also won 10 of those 16 games straight up. Bet on Toledo plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-29-18 | Stanford v. Notre Dame -5.5 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 32 m | Show |
Stanford @ Notre Dame 7:30 PM ET Game# 207-208 Play On: Notre Dame -5.5 (10*) Stanford was extremely fortunate to come away with a 38-31 overtime win at Oregon last week. Granted, kudos to them for overcoming a 4th quarter 24-7 deficit. However, that comeback was more of a byproduct of a bevvy of Oregon turnovers and a botched coaching decision by in the last minute that resulted in a fumble, when essentially all they needed to do was take a knee. That brain cramp by Oregon’s coaching staff allowed Stanford to mount a drive which led to a last second field goal that sent the contest into overtime. The win improved #7 Stanford to 4-0. Notre Dame head coach made a bold move last week by replacing former starting quarterback Brandon Winbush with Ian Book. The move paid off handsomely as Book passed for 325 yards and 2 touchdowns in addition to running for an additional 3 touchdowns during a 56-27 rout at Wake Forest. The Irish easily covered that contest as a 6.0-point favorite. That victory improved #8 Notre Dame to 4-0. Any home favorite of 8.0-points (Notre Dame) or less that’s coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 32.0-points or less and scored 52 points or more, versus an opponent with at least 1 win, resulted in those home favorites going 30-6 ATS (83.3%) since 1997. Bet on Notre Dame minus the points as a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-29-18 | Utah -1.5 v. Washington State | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 39 m | Show | |
Utah @ Washington State 6:00 PM ET Game# 149-150 Play On: Utah -1.5 (5*) Washington State is coming off a 39-36 loss at USC and now finds themselves at 3-1 (.750) this season. Conversely, Utah is coming off a 21-7 home loss to Washington and their 2018 record now stands at 2-1 (.667). Any road team (Utah) which is +2.0 to -2.0 that’s coming off a straight up loss, and they possess a win percentage of .600 to .800, versus an opponent (Washington State) with a win percentage of .600 to .800, and they’re coming off a conference loss by 7 points or less, resulted in those road teams going 10-0 SU&ATS since 1992. The average victory margin in those 10 contests was 10.9 points per game. Bet on Utah for a 5* wager. |
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09-29-18 | Army v. Buffalo -7.5 | 42-13 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 41 m | Show | |
Army @ Buffalo 12:00 PM ET Game# 109-110 Play On: Buffalo -7.5 (5*) Army is coming off a gut wrenching 28-21 overtime loss at #5 Oklahoma. After nearly pulling off a stunner as a 29.0-point underdog before over 87,000 fans in Norman, they now travel to Buffalo play in front of a sparse crowd. I know the Cadets are extremely disciplined, but it’s hard to imagine they won’t be in for a letdown. This is a Buffalo team that’s flown quietly under the radar during their 4-0 start and dating back to last season they’ve won 7 straight games. The Bulls are coming off a 43-14 blowout win at Rutgers in a game in which they covered as a 5.5-point favorite. They also own a win at Temple 36-29 and did so while being a 4.0-point underdog. Buffalo will be out to revenge last season’s 21-17 loss at Army in which they nearly pulled off an upset as a substantial 16.0-point underdog. Any home favorite of 12.5-points or less (Buffalo), coming off an away favorite of 7.5-points or less ATS win in which they covered by 24.0-points or fewer and scored 21 points or more, versus an opponent (Army) coming off a straight up loss in which they covered as an underdog by 5.0-points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory in those 15 contests was 19.1 points per game. Bet on Buffalo minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-27-18 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL -17.5 | 10-47 | Win | 100 | 55 h 58 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Miami 8:00 PM ET Game# 103-104 Play On: Miami -17.5 (5*) North Carolina is coming off a 38-35 upset win over Pittsburgh and they did so as a 3.0-point home underdog. Miami is coming off a 31-17 win over FIU but failed to cover as a 26.0-point home favorite. The combination of these previously mentioned results and current point-spread leads us to a powerful college football betting angle. Any home favorite of 14.5 to 27.0-points that’s coming off a home win in which they failed to cover as a favorite of 18.0-points or greater, and they scored 31 points or more in that win, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average margin of victory in those 15 contests was 38.7 points per game. Bet on Miami minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-23-18 | Patriots v. Lions UNDER 54 | Top | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 58 h 58 m | Show |
New England @ Detroit 8:20 PM ET Game# 487-488 Play On: Under 54.0 (10*) New England is coming off a 31-20 loss at Jacksonville and did so as a 1.5-point favorite. Since 2014, New England has gone under the total on the road following a road loss, and those games averaged a combined 38.8 points scored per game. Additionally, since 2016, New England has gone 5-1 under when there’s a total of 49.5 or greater. Detroit is coming off last Sunday’s 30-27 loss at San Francisco. The combination of this data leads us to an extremely profitable NFL totals betting angle which is displayed below. Detroit is 5-0 under in their last 5 at home when there’s of 48.0 or greater, and they’re coming off a road loss in which it allowed 38 points or fewer. Those 5 contests averaged a combined 39.6 points scored per game. Any team (New England) playing before Game 14 of their season with a total of 35.0 or greater, coming off an away double-digit loss as a favorite of 1.5-points or more, versus an opponent (Detroit) coming off an away loss in which they allowed 30 points or less, resulted in those games going 32-5 (86.5%) under the total since 1984. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-23-18 | Bears v. Cardinals +6 | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 51 h 9 m | Show | |
Bears @ Cardinals 4:25 PM ET Game# 483-484 Play On: Cardinals +6.0 (5*) Chicago finds itself in a rare road favorite situation. Keep in mind, this is a Bears team which has gone an abysmal 2-15 straight up on the road since 2016. Chicago opened with a 24-23 loss and Green Bay and then rebounded with a 24-17 win over Seattle in their home opener. Arizona is coming of 2 straight horrible loses. They lost to Washington 24-6 in their season opener and last week was a 34-0 lopsided defeat against the Rams. Nevertheless, since 12/4/2011, Arizona is 11-1 SU&ATS as a non-division home underdog of 6.5-points or less, and that record improves to a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS if they’re facing an opponent coming off a straight up win. Any underdog of 3.0 to 9.0-points (Arizona) that’s coming off 2 straight losses in which they scored 9 points or less on each occasion, and they’re playing before Game 16 of the season resulted in those underdogs going 16-1 ATS and 11-5 straight up since 2004. As a matter of fact, that precise betting angle has seen those underdogs go 7-0 SU&ATS since 2010 and they won by an average of 12.9 points per game. Bet on the Cardinals plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-23-18 | Cowboys +2 v. Seahawks | 13-24 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 7 m | Show | |
Cowboys @ Seahawks 4:25 ET Game# 485-486 Play On: Cowboys +2.0 (5*) Despite their season opening loss at Carolina, Dallas has gone an outstanding 12-5 on the road since 2016. The Cowboys currently lead the NFL in sacks and they’ll be going up against Seattle’s poor offensive line. As a matter of fact, Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson has been sacked 12 times during the Seahawks first 2 games. The Seattle offense has also turned the ball over 5 times during those 2 contests which has attributed to a 0-2 start. It wasn’t too long ago that Seahawks seemed invincible when playing at home. However, they’re just 1-4 SU&ATS in their last 5 games at Century Link Field in Seattle. Any NFL team (Seattle) who’s +5.0 to -5.0 that’s playing in Game 3 of their season and is coming off 2 straight road losses, resulted in those teams going 2-16 ATS and 3-15 straight up since 1986. Bet on the Cowboys for a 5* wager. |
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09-23-18 | Chargers v. Rams -7 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 50 m | Show | |
Chargers @ Rams 4:05 ET Game# 481-482 Play On: Rams -7.0 (5*) The Rams have looked great on both sides of the ball during its first 2 games. Their most recent contest was last Sunday’s 34-0 blowout win over Arizona. The Rams are quickly proving that their 11-5 regular season record and NFC West Division crown from last year wasn’t a fluke. They’ll be facing a Chargers team that went 9-7 a season ago and is 1-1 in 2018. Any home favorite of 2.5 to 9.0 points that’s coming off a division win by 11 points or more, and they won 10 or more regular season games during the previous season, versus an opponent (Chargers) that won 9 or more regular season game the year before, resulted in those home favorites going a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1981. The average margin of victory during those 14 contests was 14.1 points per game. Bet on the Rams minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-23-18 | Packers v. Redskins +3.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 46 h 26 m | Show | |
Green Bay @ Washington 1:00 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Washington +3.5 (5*) The Packers are coming off an 29-29 tie against Minnesota and they allowed an alarmingly high 412 yards passing in that contest. Aaron Rodger’s mobility has certainly been diminished by the knee injury he sustained in Green Bay’s season opener. Rodgers will be facing a Washington defense which has allowed just 16.5 points and 247 yards per game through their first 2 games of the season. Washington is coming off a disheartening 21-9 loss to Indianapolis last Sunday in their home opener. That defeat squared their record at 1-1. Since 9/20/2015, Washington is a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog of 3.0 points or more, and they won by 10.3 points per game. Any home underdog of 4.0-points or less (Redskins) that’s coming off a home favorite straight up loss by 10 points or more, and they failed to cover by 22.0 points or less, versus an opponent (Packers) that scored 19 points or more in their last game, resulted in those home underdogs going 12-0 SU&ATS since 1982. Bet on the Redskins plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-22-18 | Arizona State v. Washington -17 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 48 m | Show | |
Arizona State @ Washington 10:30 PM ET Game# 409-410 Play On: Washington -17.0 (5*) Washington is coming off an impressive 21-7 win at Utah in their previous game and they easily covered as a 4.0-point favorite. Conversely, Arizona State was handed their first defeat of the season last Saturday night while being upset 28-21 at San Diego State as a 5.5-point favorite. The combination of these two results creates a never lost college football ATS betting angle which is illustrated below. Any conference home favorite of 5.0-points or greater, coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they allowed 15 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Arizona State) coming off an away favorite straight up loss, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 ATS since 1989. The average margin of victory during those 13 contests was a sizable 28.9 points per game. Bet on Washington minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-22-18 | Stanford v. Oregon +2.5 | 38-31 | Loss | -105 | 55 h 24 m | Show | |
Stanford @ Oregon 8:00 PM ET Game# 355-356 Play On: Oregon +2.5 (5*) Even though Stanford reached the PAC-12 Championship game last season they went 0-4 ATS in conference road games. They did mange to win 2 of those 2 road tilts but by just a combined 4 points. Since 2018, Oregon has gone 60-10 at home and that includes 9-1 since last season. Oregon is coming off home wins over San Jose State and Portland State during their previous 2 games. However, they failed to cover as a favorite in each of those contests. Any home team who +3.0 to -3.0 and is coming off 2 straight wins in which they failed to cover as a home favorite has gone 8-0 SU&ATS since 1981. The home teams won those 8 contests by an average of 10.6 points per game. Bet on Oregon for a 5* wager. |
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09-22-18 | South Carolina v. Vanderbilt +2.5 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 26 m | Show |
South Carolina @ Vanderbilt 4:00 PM ET Game# 387-388 Play On: Vanderbilt +2.5 (10*) South Carolina unexpectedly had last week off after Hurricane Florence swept through the Carolinas and resulted in their home game versus Marshall being cancelled. The last time the Gamecocks took the field 2 weeks ago they were hammered 41-17 at home against Georgia and fell far short of covering as an 8.5-point underdog. There’s no embarrassment in losing to Georgia but the manner of which it occurred was alarming for South Carolina fans. Vanderbilt began the 2018 season with home wins over Middle Tennessee State 35-7 and Nevada 41-10. Last Saturday they put up a valiant effort before better than 80,000 fans at Notre Dame before losing 22-17. Nevertheless, the Commodores covered with ease as a 14.0-point underdog. They’re now a perfect 3-0 ATS on the season. Vanderbilt’s defense has been outstanding thus far while surrendering a mere 13 points and 308 yards per game. The Commodores will be out to end a 9-game losing streak against South Carolina. However, their previous 3 losses to the Gamecocks all came by 9 points or fewer. This is potentially the best team Derek Mason has possessed since taking on the head coaching job at Vanderbilt. Bet on Vanderbilt for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-22-18 | Notre Dame -7 v. Wake Forest | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 49 h 1 m | Show | |
Notre Dame @ Wake Forest 12:00 PM ET Game# 343-344 Play On: Notre Dame -7.0 (5*) Notre Dame is 3-0 so far and they allowed 17 points or fewer in each of those wins. The Irish are now 15-7 during their last 22 games played. Conversely, Wake Forest is coming off a 41-34 home loss to Boston College. Any away favorite of 5.0-points or more that’s coming off 2 straight wins in which it allowed 17 points or less, and they’ve won 9 or more of their previous 22 games played, versus an opponent (Wake Forest) who allowed 37 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those away favorites going 25-1 ATS (96.1%) since 2014. Bet on Notre Dame minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-21-18 | Washington State +3.5 v. USC | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 60 h 6 m | Show | |
Washington State @ USC 10:30 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Washington State +3.5 (5*) Washington State has commenced their 2018 college football campaign with a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS record. Each of those 3 wins came by 22 points or more. USC is coming off a dismal performance during last Saturday’s 37-14 loss at Texas. The combination of those previously mentioned 4 results sets up a powerful college football betting angle which is illustrated below Any team who’s won 3 straight games by 21 points or more, and they’re facing a conference opponent that’s coming off a loss by 17 points or more, resulted in those teams going 44-1 (97.8%) straight up since 1988. The straight up record contained within this college football betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the underdog Washington State Cougars. Bet on Washington State plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-20-18 | Jets +3.5 v. Browns | 17-21 | Loss | -100 | 52 h 10 m | Show | |
Jets @ Browns 8:20 PM ET Game# 301-302 Play On: Jets +3.5 (5*) With any kind of placekicking, the Browns would be 2-0 instead of 0-1-1. This will a first time since 12/13/2015 that Cleveland is being installed as a home favorite. Putting things into perspective, the favorite in this contest has gone an abysmal 1-35-1 straight up during its last 37 games played which includes a money draining 11-26 ATS (29.7%), and all but one of those games were they an underdog. The lone exception was last season at Indianapolis when they closed as a 1.0-point favorite and lost to the Colts 31-28. Cleveland fell at New Orleans last Sunday 21-18. It’s worth noting, since Hue Jackson took over as head coach in Cleveland, the Browns are 0-6 SU&ATS following a loss by 3 points or less. Meanwhile, the Jets lost 20-12 at home to division rival Miami in their previous game, and they did so as a 3.0-point favorite. That leads us to a rare but unbeaten NFL betting angle illustrated below. Any road underdog of 4.0-points or less that’s coming off a division home favorite straight up loss, and they’re facing an opponent (Browns) which lost straight up in their previous contest, resulted in those road underdogs going a perfect 11-0 SU&ATS since 2011. Those road underdogs won those 11 contests by an average of 8.1 points per game. Bet on the Jets plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears -4 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Seattle @ Chicago 8:15 PM ET Game# 289-290 Play On: Chicago -4.0 (5*) Seattle is coming off a season opening 27-24 loss at Denver in which they allowed the Broncos to amass an alarmingly high 480 yards of total offense. Chicago is coming off a gut wrenching 24-23 loss at Green Bay in which they squandered a 20-0 second half lead. However, the Bears are a vey profitable 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games and that includes 6-3 ATS when facing a non-division opponent. This is a Bears team with a vastly underrated defense, and on paper is much improved offensively compared to last season, specifically so at wide receiver. Bet on the Bears minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-16-18 | Patriots v. Jaguars +3 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show | |
New England @ Jacksonville 4:25 PM ET Game# 283-284 Play On: Jacksonville +3.0 (5*) Jacksonville is coming off a 20-15 road win over the Giants and they covered as a 3.0-point favorite. Conversely, New England is coming off a 27-20 home win over Houston. These results qualify for a never lost NFL betting angle illustrated below. Any non-division home underdog of 3.5-points or less (Jacksonville) that’s coming off an away favorite of 6.0-points or fewer ATS cover, and they’re facing an opponent (New England) coming off a win in which they scored 42 points or less, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1993. Bet on Jacksonville plus the small number for a 5* wager. |
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09-16-18 | Dolphins v. Jets -2.5 | Top | 20-12 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 43 m | Show |
Miami @ NY Jets 1:00 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: Jets -2.5 (10*) Miami has gone a dismal 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as a division away underdog. The Dolphins christened their 2018 regular season campaign with a 27-20 win over Tennessee. The Jets are coming off an extremely impressive 48-17 road win at Detroit and did so as a sizable 7.0-point underdog. You may be surprised to know that the Jets are 6-1 during its previous 7 home openers. Any home favorite of 5.5-points or less that’s coming off a non-division away underdog straight up win in which they scored 41 points or more and allowed 10 or greater, and they’re facing an opponent who scored 21 points or more during its previous contests, resulted in those home favorites going 8-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory in those contests was 13.5 points per game. Bet on the Jets minus the points as a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-16-18 | Chiefs v. Steelers -4.5 | 42-37 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh 1:00 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: Pittsburgh -4.5 (5*) Pittsburgh squandered a late 4th quarter 21-7 lead at Cleveland last Sunday and had to settle for a 21-21 tie. The Steelers will look to rebound in their home opener on Sunday against a Kansas City team that they’ve gone 3-0 SU&ATS against since 2016. By the way, Pittsburgh has gone 14-1 in their last 15 home openers. Kansas City opened their 2018 regular season slate with a 38-28 road win over the Chargers and did so as a 3.0-point underdog. However, it must be noted, despite that opening game win the Chiefs defense allowed the Chargers to amass an enormous 541 yards of total offense. That’s not a good prerequisite when facing a very explosive offensive team that Pittsburgh possesses. Any non-division home favorite of 4.5-points or less that’s coming off a game in which they scored 20 or more and allowed 14 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent (Kansas City) who’s coming off a division way underdog straight up win in which they scored 31 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1982. The average margin of victory in those contests was a sizable 18.0 points per game. Bet on Pittsburgh minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-15-18 | Ohio State v. TCU +13 | Top | 40-28 | Win | 100 | 34 h 9 m | Show |
Ohio State @ TCU Game# 203-204 Play On: TCU +13.0 (10*) You can’t be much more dominating than #4 Ohio State showed during fits first 2 games of the season. The Buckeyes recorded home blowout wins over Oregon State 77-31 and Rutgers 52-3. Since 2005, TCU has gone an outstanding 28-2 straight up in non-conference home games. The Horned Frogs opened their 2018 slate with a 55-7 home rout of Southern University. Then just 5 days later they hammered SMU 42-12 while covering as a substantial 23.5-point road favorite. Any college football home team (TCU) that’s coming off 2 straight wins by 21 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent (Ohio State) who scored 42 points or more during each of its last 2 games, resulted in those home teams going 40-9 (.816) straight up since 1980. As a matter of fact, since 2010, the home teams in that precise situation are an even better 22-1 (.957) straight up. The straight up records pertaining to this college football betting angle take on added significance when accounting for the home team (TCU) being a double-digit underdog. Bet on TCU plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-15-18 | Vanderbilt +14 v. Notre Dame | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 27 h 6 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt @ Notre Dame 2:30 PM ET Game# 137-138 Play On: Vanderbilt +14.0 (5*) Vanderbilt has begun their 2018 campaign with decisive home wins over Middle Tennessee State 35-7 and Nevada 41-10. They easily covered both contests with last of which came as a10.0-point favorite. The Commodores defense was stout in those 2 wins in allowing just 272.0 yards per game and forced 6 turnovers. By the way, Notre Dame committed 3 turnovers last week against Ball State. Speaking of Notre Dame, they opened their season with home wins over Michigan 24-17 and Ball State 24-16. |
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09-15-18 | Miami-FL v. Toledo +11 | 49-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 35 m | Show | |
Miami Fla. @ Toledo 12:00 PM ET Game# 115-116 Play On: Toledo +11.0 (5*) Miami is coming off a 77-0 shellacking of Savannah State last Saturday. However, they opened their season with an embarrassing 33-17 loss as a 3.0-point favorite against LSU. Dating back to last season, Miami has lost 4 straight games to FBS opponents. Toledo opener their season 2 weeks ago with a 66-3 home win over VMI. The Rockets will have the benefit of having last week off. This is a Rockets football program that’s gone 12-1 in their previous 13 home games and hasn’t been a home underdog since 9/6/2014. Bet on Toledo plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders +5 | 33-13 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
Rams @ Raiders 10:20 PM ET Game# 481-482 Play On: Raiders +5.0 (5*) Monday night home underdogs have consistently covered and especially in non-division games. As a matter of fact, Monday night non-division home underdogs of 5.0 or less have gone 40-27 ATS (59.7%) since 1983 and they also won straight up on 38 of those 67 occasions. Oakland went 6-10 a season ago and they’re 17-15 during their last 32 games played. Any Monday night home underdog of 6.5-points or less (Raiders) that’s playing in their opening game of the season who won 5 or more games during their previous season, and they also won 14 or more of their last 32 contests, resulted in those home underdogs going a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1980. Furthermore, those home underdogs won 8 of those 11 games straight up. Bet on the Raiders plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-09-18 | Redskins v. Cardinals | 24-6 | Loss | -125 | 47 h 12 m | Show | |
Redskins @ Cardinals 4:25 PM ET Game# 475-4765 Play On: Cardinals (Pick) (5*) Washington has gone a 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 season openers while losing by a decisive margin of 14.8 points per game. The Redskins finished last season by losing 6 of its final 7 road games. Additionally, during that 7-game road funk, they were 0-5 SU&ATS as an underdog or favorite of 6.5-points or less and lost by an average of 13.8 points per contest. Since 2006, the Cardinals franchise is 16-2-1 straight up and 16-3 ATS during home games when their point-spread is +2.5 to -2.5. It improves to 14-1 SU&ATS when they’re facing non-division opponents at home in that previously mentioned point-spread parameter. Furthermore, since 2013, Arizona is an outstanding 22-3 straight up in non-division home games. It doesn’t figure to be a banner year for the Cardinals. However, they’ll have enough juice to get by a mediocre at best Redskins team in their home opener. Bet on the Cardinals for a 5* wager. |
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09-09-18 | Chiefs v. Chargers -3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -126 | 55 h 56 m | Show |
Chiefs @ Chargers 4:05 PM ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Chargers -3.0 (10*) Talk about big time revenge, the Chargers have lost 8 straight times to Kansas City. The Chargers will look to build on the momentum of going 9-3 during their final 3 games last season, and that included a perfect 5-0 in its last 5 at home. Meanwhile, Kansas City ended last season by going a dismal 1-4 SU&ATS in their last 5 away games. Any home favorite of 3.0 or less that won 9 regular season games of more during the previous season resulted in those teams going 15-0 SU&ATS since 1987. The average victory margin in those 15 contests came by a decisive average of 12.4 points per game. Bet on the Chargers minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-08-18 | Georgia v. South Carolina +10.5 | 41-17 | Loss | -106 | 30 h 30 m | Show | |
Georgia @ South Carolina 3:30 PM ET Game# 347-348 Play On: South Carolina +10.5 (5*) South Carolina is coming off a 49-15 win at Coastal Carolina last week. The Gamecocks finished with a stellar 9-4 record a season ago. South Carolina has also gone 10-2 during its last 12 home games. Georgia advanced all the way to the College Football national championship game last season and ended up with a brilliant 13-2 record. The Bulldogs opened the season with a 45-0 win over Austin Peay. Any underdog of 3.5 to 10.0 points that scored 42 points or more in their previous game, and they won 8 games or more in the previous season, versus an opponent coming off a win by 17 points or more, and they also won 8 games or more in the previous season, resulted in those underdogs going 27-3 ATS (90%) since 2014. Bet on South Carolina plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-08-18 | Air Force v. Florida Atlantic -9 | 27-33 | Loss | -104 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
Air Force @ Florida Atlantic 2:00 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Florida Atlantic -9.0 (5*) Florida Atlantic suffered a 63-14 drubbing at Oklahoma last week, and they failed to cover as a 21.5-point underdog. FAU has now gone 13-9 during their previous 22 games played. Although the Owls program has made giant strides since Lance Kiffin became their head coach last season, they’re still far from being ready to contend with quality teams from the power conferences. On the other hand, Air Force is similar in caliber to what they’ll face from top teams in their own conference. The Falcons are coming off last Saturday’s season opening 38-0 win over Stony Brook, and they covered that contest as a 15.0-point home favorite. Any favorite (FAU) that’s coming off an away underdog of 16.0-points or more ATS loss, and they won 8 or more of their previous 22 games, versus an opponent (Air Force) coming off a home favorite of 10.0-points or more ATS win, resulted in those favorites going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1990. The average margin of victory in those 11 contests was 18.0 points per game. Bet on Florida Atlantic minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-08-18 | Georgia Tech v. South Florida +3.5 | 38-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech @ South Florida 12:00 PM ET Game# 307-308 Play On: South Florida +3.5 (5*) Georgia Tech opened their 2018 campaign last week with an easy 41-0 win over Alcorn State. Conversely, South Florida took care of business as well in their home opener in a 34-14 triumph over Elon. South Florida has now gone a stellar 16-2 straight up and 12-6 ATS during their previous 18 home games. Any non-conference home underdog of 2.0 to 6.0-points (South Florida) that’s coming off a season opening non-conference home win in which they scored 33 points or less, and they’re facing an opponent (Georgia Tech) coming off a win by 22 points or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 10-0 ATS since 1983. Those home underdogs also won straight up on 9 of those occasions. Bet on South Florida plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-08-18 | Mississippi State v. Kansas State +9 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
Mississippi State @ Kansas State 12:00 PM ET Game# 323-324 Play On: Kansas State +9.0 (5*) Kansas State narrowly escaped last Saturday with a 27-24 home win against South Dakota, and they’re now 15-7 over their previous 22 games played. The Wildcats are now an impressive 26-2 straight up during their previous 28 non-conference home games. I look for Kansas State to bounce back from last week’s lackluster performance when they host #18 Mississippi State on Saturday. Speaking of Mississippi State, they christened their 2018 season with a resounding 63-6 rout of Stephen F. Austin. Any home underdog of 3.5 to 10.0 points (Kansas State) that’s coming off a home win by 3 points or less in which they allowed 17 points or more, and they’re playing in game 2 through 6, resulted in those home underdogs going 19-1 ATS (95%) since 1993. The underdogs also went 15-5 straight up in those contests. Bet on Kansas State plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-06-18 | Falcons v. Eagles -1 | 12-18 | Win | 100 | 82 h 24 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Philadelphia 8:20 PM ET Game# 451-452 Play On: Philadelphia -1.0 (5*) Since 2003, home teams playing in their season opener on a Thursday night have gone an extremely successful 13-1 straight up and 8-2-4 ATS. In all but one of those instances the home team was the defending Super Bowl champions. Furthermore, since 1980, non-division home favorites of 2.5-points or less playing on a Thursday have gone a terrific 11-1 SU&ATS. During the past 2 seasons, Philadelphia is an extremely profitable 11-1 straight up and 10-2 ATS in non-division home games. Bet on Philadelphia for a 5* wager. |
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09-02-18 | Miami-FL v. LSU +3.5 | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Miami vs. LSU 7:30 PM ET Game# 217-2018 Play On: LSU +3.5 (5*) Miami surprised many by starting last season 10-0 and catapulting themselves into the College Football Playoff discussion. However, the Hurricanes then proceeded to go 0-3 SU&ATS during their final 3 games played and were outscored by a decisive margin of 96-44. This will be just the 9th neutral site (Arlington, Texas) game for Miami since 2008, and they lost 7 of those previous 8 contests. The LSU Tigers will enter this season opener with a chip on their shoulders. They barely were voted into the preseason AP Poll Top 25. It’s also been well publicized that their head coach Ed Orgeron is a favorite to be one of the first to be fired this season. The Tigers defense will be one of the nation’s top stop units in 2018, and they’ll keep LSU in games against teams that may have a perceived superior talent level such as Miami is projected to have. Speaking of neutral site games. This will be the 10th such contest for LSU since 2013. They went 6-3 during the previous 9 and their 3 losses came by a combined 9 points. Bet on LSU plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-01-18 | Navy -10.5 v. Hawaii | 41-59 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 34 m | Show | |
Navy @ Hawaii 11:00 PM ET Game# 215-216 Play On: Navy -10.5 (5*) Since 2015, Navy is a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS as a road favorite of 7.0 points or more and won by an average of 21.7 points per game. The Midshipmen have been amongst the elite rushing teams in the country since the turn of the century. As a matter of fact, they averaged a robust 5.6 yards per rushing attempt last season. This sets up a straightforward and extremely profitable college football betting angle which is exemplified below. Any college football road favorite (Navy) of 10.5 to 21.0-points that averaged 5.25 yards or more per rushing attempt during their previous season, resulted in those road favorites going 24-4 ATS since 2009. Those 28 road favorites average point-spread was -14.7 and they outscored their opponents by 23.4 points per game. Hawaii opened their season last Saturday at Colorado State and they pulled off a 43-34 upset as a sizable 17.0-point underdog. Hawaii is looking to rebound from a dismal 3-9 campaign in 2017. This sets up a never lost college football angle which is displayed below. Any college football non-conference away favorite (Navy) of 3.5-points or greater, versus an opponent (Hawaii) coming off a straight up win by 4 points as an away underdog of 10.5-points or more in which they scored greater than 20 points, and that opponent (Hawaii) won 9 games or less in the previous season, resulted in those road favorites going 8-0 ATS since 1995. Those road teams won by a whopping average of 30.9 points per game. Bet on Navy minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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09-01-18 | Washington +2.5 v. Auburn | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 23 m | Show |
Washington vs. Auburn 3:30 PM ET Game# 193-194 Play On: Washington +2.5 (10*) This is one of those rare betting situations where I dispose of my technical handicapping hat and rely solely on my professional intuition. I predicted in mid-July for Washington to be one of my 2 sleeper teams to win the national championship at odds of +1600. If that indeed is going to transpire, or even have a chance of doing so, losing their season opener isn’t the path for my prediction to be realized. Additionally, a win against a quality opponent like Auburn during a game played in the hear of SEC country (Atlanta) would be a gigantic resume builder. If the football adage of defense wins championships hold true, then Washington has a solid foundation to do so. The Huskies return 9 starters from a defense that allowed 16 points or less in 9 of 13 games a season ago. Nevertheless, their key to a potential national championship run will mainly rest on the shoulders of 4th year starting quarterbackJake Browning. When Washington won the PAC-12 championship and reached the College Football Playoffs 2 seasons ago, Browning was nothing short of spectacular. During that 2016 campaign, Browning threw for 3430 yards while tossing 43 touchdown passes and was intercepted only 9 times in 391 attempts. Besides his career high 68.5% completion rate in 2017, Browning’s overall numbers dipped substantially last year. I expect the seasoned signal caller to bounce back with an outstanding 2018 season. Bet on Washington for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-01-18 | Washington State v. Wyoming UNDER 47 | 41-19 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 6 m | Show | |
Washington State @ Wyoming 3:30 PM ET Game# 205-206 Play On: Under 47.0 (5*) Wyoming has the advantage of having played a game already while this will be the season opener for Washington State. The Cowboys were impressive in a 29-7 win at New Mexico State last Saturday and easily covered as a closing 6.0-point road favorite. The experienced Cowboys defense which allowed just 17 points per game in 2017 pickup up just where they left off by turning in a dominating performance in that season opening win. Wyoming held New Mexico State to a mere 135 yards of total offense. Speaking of experience, the Cowboys return 17 starters from a team that went 8-5 last season. Although Wyoming’s offense put up more than respectable numbers last week, they’ll face a sterner test from a defense that plays in a “Power 5 Conference”. I also look for the usually explosive Washington State offense to regress a bit due to lack of experience and will especially be the case early in their 2018 campaign. Any home team playing in their first 2 games of the season with a total of 42.5 to 49.0, and they return 17 or more starters from a season ago, versus a non-conference opponent (Washington State), resulted in those contests going 25-5 (83.3%) under the total since 1992. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 5* wager. |
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08-31-18 | Syracuse -4.5 v. Western Michigan | 55-42 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Syracuse @ Western Michigan 6:00 PM ET Game# 143-144 Play On: Syracuse -4.5 (5*) This will be the 3rd year as head coach at Syracuse for Dino Babers. Although he’s made the Orange a more entertaining team to watch on offense, his team must show a marked improvement in 2018 following identical 4-8 seasons. If he wants to prevent his seat from starting to become warm, Syracuse can ill afford to begin the season with a loss to a MAC school. Nevertheless, this is a much tougher season opener than each of the past 2 years when the Orange hosted FCS opponents. The one thing that jumped off the page at me is that Syracuse returns 8 offensive starter which includes 3-year starting quarterback Eric Dungy. Conversely. Western Michigan returns only 5 defensive starters. That low of a number is okay at schools like Alabama, Oklahoma, Clemson, or Georgia. Those are schools that bring in a plethora of 4* and 5* recruits annually that are more than prepared to step up and succeed in a starting role. The last I checked, Western Michigan is a good MAC football program who made it to a “New Year’s 6 Bowl” just 2 years ago, but they aren’t in the class of those previously mentioned schools in terms of overcoming losses of over half their defensive starters due to their eligibility running out. Subsequently, I look for Syracuse’s offense to have their way on Friday and make it difficult for Western Michigan to keep pace. I already alluded to the returning starters on offense for Syracuse and those on defense for Western Michigan. Syracuse was off to a promising 4-3 start to the season a year ago only to drop their final 5 games. The combination of all this data sets up an extremely profitable college football betting angle which is illustrated below. Any team (Syracuse) that’s playing in their first 2 games of the season who has 8 or more returning offensive starters, and they lost 3 or more straight games to close out the previous season, versus an opponent (Western Michigan) which returns 5 or fewer defensive starters, resulted in those teams going 26-5 ATS (83.9%) since 2014. Those teams outscored their 31 opponents by an average of 24.7 points per game. Furthermore, this identical college football betting angle has gone an even better 14-1 ATS (93.3%) since 2016. Bet on Syracuse minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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02-04-18 | Eagles v. Patriots OVER 48.5 | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
Philadelphia vs. New England 6:30 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Over 48.5 (5*) Since 2015, New England has gone 8-2 over the total in their postseason games. Furthermore, if there was a total of 47.0 or more in those contests, New England was 6-0 over the total and there was a combined 55.7 points scored per game. Philadelphia crushed Minnesota in the NFC Championship Game by a score of 38-7, and they did so as a 3.0-point underdog. Since 1991, any Super Bowl team that’s coming off a straight up underdog win in which they allowed 13 points or less, resulted in those Super Bowls going 6-0 over the total, and there was a combined 58.3 points scored per game. Both teams are averaging a tad over 28 points scored per game. Philadelphia has allowed 10 points or less on 8 separate occasions this season and that includes in each of their last 4 games. However, 7 of the 8 games in which they allowed 10 points or less came at home. The Eagles allowed an average of 23.5 points per game on the road, and they also scored 28.5 points per contest. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 5* wager. |
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02-04-18 | Eagles +4.5 v. Patriots | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs. New England 6:30 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Philadelphia +4.5 (10*) New England defeated Jacksonville 24-20 in the AFC Championship Game but failed to cover as a 7.5-point favorite. Since 2002, Super Bowl teams coming off a game in which they failed to cover as a favorite have gone 0-4 SU&ATS. The Eagles took the unusual route of entering this Super Bowl after winning each of their last postseason contests as an underdog. Since 2002, any Super Bowl team that’s coming off a straight up underdog win has gone 9-0 ATS and won straight up on 7 of those occasions. If those teams were a favorite or underdog of less than 6.0 points they were 5-0 SU&ATS and won by 10.8 points per game. Turnovers will play a huge part in winning Super Bowl LII. Philadelphia is averaging just 1.23 turnovers per game this season. Meanwhile, New England has forced just 18 turnovers in 18 games this season. As a matter of fact, the Patriots have not forced a turnover in their previous 4 games. Any team (Philadelphia) playing after Game 8 of their season, and they average 1.25 or fewer turnovers committed per game, and they’re facing an opponent (New England) who averages forcing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, resulted in those teams going 60-15 (80%) straight up since 2008. Since this straight up betting angle sides with the underdog on Sunday, there’s a ton of betting value to be had on the Eagles. Bet on Philadelphia plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles +3.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 57 h 35 m | Show |
Minnesota @ Philadelphia 6:40 PM ET Game# 313-314 Play On: Philadelphia +3.5 (10*) For starters, this is an Eagles team that’s 8-1 at home this season, and their only defeat came against Dallas in a meaningless Week 17 regular season game. They were also a 2.5-point home underdog during last Sunday’s 15-10 Divisional Round win over the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons. Counting last week’s playoff game, Philadelphia is 14-3 (.823) this season. Since 1980, NFL playoff home underdogs have gone an extremely profitable 27-13 ATS (67.5%). If those postseason home underdogs had a win percentage of .750 or better, they improved to 9-2 ATS (81.8%) and won straight up on 8 of those occasions. Minnesota is also an identical 14-3 (.823) this season. Since 1985, any NFL home underdog of 2.0-points or more that’s playing after Game 5 of their season, possessing a win percentage of .750 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .750 or better, resulted in those home underdogs going 8-0 SU&ATS. The average margin of victory in those 8 contests was 13.5 points per game. Bet on Philadelphia plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots UNDER 46.5 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 53 h 3 m | Show |
Jacksonville @ New England 3:05 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Under 46.5 (10*) Despite the Jaguars defense looking less than impressive during last week’s 45-42 Divisional Round win at Pittsburgh, they’re still a force to be reckoned with. Jacksonville has allowed 10 points or less in 9 of 18 games this season, and they’re at or near the top of every defensive category. New England’s explosive offense led by future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady gets a plethora of attention and rightfully so. Nevertheless, the Patriots defense has allowed 17 points or less in 11 of their last 13 games played, and that includes each of it previous 5 at home. Any road team with a total of 42.5 to 49.0, coming off a road win in which they scored and allowed 31 points or more, resulted in those road teams going 31-5 (86.1%) under the total since 1985. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings -4 | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 49 h 31 m | Show |
New Orleans @ Minnesota 4:40 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Minnesota -4.0 (10*) New Orleans is 8-1 at home this season but a mediocre 4-4 on the road. As a matter of fact, the Saints are a dismal 0-3 SU&ATS in its last 3 away games. Ironically, New Orleans opened the season at Minnesota, and lost that contest 29-19 in a game wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicates. New Orleans was outgained by Minnesota in that game by a decisive margin of 470-344. Since Mike Zimmer has taken over the Minnesota Vikings head coaching duties in 2014, Minnesota is 14-1 ATS as a non-division home favorite. Considering the sample size and continuity pertaining to this precise situation, it’s a team betting trend that I certainly can’t ignore. Additionally, we can’t dismiss how dominating the Vikings defense has been this season, and especially so at home. Minnesota has allowed a paltry 12.5 points and 248.5 yards per game in their 8 home contests this season. Furthermore, the Vikings have given up 10 points or less in 5 of its last 7 games, and that includes in each of their previous 3 outings. Bet on Minnesota minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers -7 | 45-42 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 3 m | Show | |
Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh 1:05 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Pittsburgh -7.0 (5*) Jacksonville tried very hard to lose their wild card round home game last week against Buffalo. But their defense carried them to a 10-3 win. They were facing a Buffalo wide receiver unit that was the least productive in the NFL this season. They also had to deal with a mediocre quarterback at best, and a less than 100% healthy LeSean McCoy. That won’t be the case this week against an extremely talented wide receiver group and a future Hall of Fame quarterback. Pittsburgh was embarrassed earlier this season during a 30-9 home defeat against Jacksonville. Since 2014, Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5-points or more when playing with revenge. They did win all 5 of those contests straight up, and did so by a lopsided 18.2 points per game. You can be sure “Big Ben” will be out to atone for a dismal 5 interception performance in that loss to Jacksonville in early October. Any NFL non-division postseason home favorite of 6.0 to 11.5-points, coming off a bye week, and they’re playing with revenge, resulted in those sizable playoff home favorites going 10-0 SU&ATS since 1997. The average margin of victory in those 10 contests came by a decisive 15.0 points per game. Bet on the Pittsburgh minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles +3 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 71 h 4 m | Show |
Atlanta @ Philadelphia 4:35 PM ET Game# 301-302 Play On: Philadelphia +3.0 (10*) Granted there’s significant drop off from going with Nick Foles as opposed to Carson Wentz at quarterback. However, Foles is experienced enough to play within himself and not try to do too much. He’s also confident in knowing that this is an Eagles defense which has allowed 13.4 points and 321 yards per game at home this season. Philadelphia was a stellar 7-1 at home this season, and their only defeat came in their meaningless regular season finale to Dallas. The Eagles used primarily backups in that 6-0 loss to ensure it starters could avoid injury. Besides all that I’ve already pointed out, home playoff teams in this precise scenario have won at an extremely high rate over the past 26 years. Any playoff home team (Philadelphia) playing that had a bye the week before, versus an opponent (Atlanta) coming off a playoff win, and they possess a win percentage of less than .705 (Atlanta .647), resulted in those home teams going 43-7 (86%) straight up since 1992. Considering the home team is an underdog in this instance, it takes on added betting value. Bet on Philadelphia plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-08-18 | Alabama v. Georgia +5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Alabama vs. Georgia 8:00 PM ET Game# 155-156 Play On: Georgia +5.0 (10*) In my mind, this is an even matchup across the board with a lone exception, Georgia’s passing game is more consistent than Alabama’s aerial attack. This is also a Georgia team that averages 267 yards rushing per game, and has run for 238 yards or more in each of their previous 4 games. As a matter of fact, they torched Oklahoma for 317 yards son the ground in their thrilling double overtime win in the New Year’s Day national semifinal. Any neutral field underdog (Georgia) that averages 225 yards or more rushing per game, and has rushed for 225 yards or more in each of their previous 4 games, resulted in those underdogs going 23-3 ATS (88.5%) since 1992. Bet on Georgia plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-07-18 | Panthers +7 v. Saints | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
Carolina @ New Orleans 4:35 PM ET Game# 107-108 Play On: Carolina +7.0 (5*) New Orleans has already defeated Carolina twice this season. It’s extremely difficult to be a very good football team 3 times in a season. Make no mistake, the 11-5 Panthers are a very good football team. If not for losing on the road to the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons last week, it would be Carolina hosting this playoff contest on Sunday and not New Orleans. New Orleans is very lucky that didn’t transpire after losing to a then 4-11 Tampa Bay team last Sunday. After going on a torrid 8-game win streak, New Orleans went just 3-3 during its last 6 games. At the very least, I like Carolina to take this game right down to the wire, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see an outright upset. Bet on Carolina plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-06-18 | Falcons v. Rams UNDER 48.5 | Top | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
Atlanta @ LA Rams 8:15 ET Game# 103-104 Play On: Under 48.5 (5*) Atlanta enters this postseason after seeing each of their last 5 regular season games go under the total. As a matter of fact, during the past 3 seasons Atlanta is 19-6 under following an under in their previous game, and that includes 11-1 under if there’s a total of 46.5 to 53.5. The Falcons defense has flown under the radar this season with no pun intended. Atlanta has allowed just 19.6 points and 318.0 yards per game during its regular season slate. This Falcons offense is far from the offensive juggernaut we saw a season ago. Much can be attributed to the loss of last season’s offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan who accepted the head coaching job in San Francisco. The Rams have been a dynamic offensive team this season. However, they have very little playoff experience on their roster, and this will be the Rams franchise first postseason appearance since 2005. This is an extremely talented Rams defense, and they’re masterminded by one of the best coordinators in football in Wade Phillips. Atlanta concluded its regular season last Sunday with a 22-10 home win over division rival Carolina. That victory improved their final regular season record to 10-6 (.625). They will be facing a Rams team that went 11-5 (.687). Any road team (Atlanta) playing in a playoff game that coming off a division home win, and they possess a win percentage of .600 to .750, versus an opponent (LA Rams) with a win percentage of .687 or worse, resulted in those postseason games going 12-0 under the total since 2008. There was a combined average of 37.1 points scored per game during those 12 contests. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs -8 | 22-21 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
Tennessee @ Kansas City 4:30 ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Kansas City -8.0 (5*) Tennessee went 2-5 in their last 7 road games with their only wins coming against Cleveland and Indianapolis. Nonetheless, those 2 road victories came by only a combined 7 points, and came against opponents that went a combined 3-29 (.094) this season. After starting the season 8-4, Tennessee lost 3 straight games, and needed last Sunday’s 15-10 home win over Jacksonville to secure a playoff spot. They were able to defeat the Jaguars despite racking up just 232 yards of total offense. Tennessee will be making its first playoff appearance since 2009, and will be without the services of leading rusher DeMarco Murray (MCL). After going through a midseason stretch in which they lost 6 of 7 games, Kansas City regrouped and finished regular season action by going 4-0 SU&ATS. The Chiefs are also 4-0 SU&ATS this seasons as a favorite following a win in their previous game, and versus an opponent coming off a win during its last contest. This will be the 5th playoff game in 5 years for Kansas City in 5 years under head coach Andy Reid. Conversely, this will be the first ever playoff game for Mike Mularkey in 6 years as a head coach in Buffalo and now with Tennessee. Here’s an interesting playoff betting tidbit that makes a lot of sense. Any team playing in its first playoff game as a home favorite of 8.0-points or more (Kansas City), and they finished regular season action by winning and covering its last 4 regular season contests, resulted in those postseason home favorites going 4-0 SU&ATS (+15.0 PPG) since 1982. It’s certainly a rare situation but proves entering the NFL playoffs riding a wave of momentum makes justifies laying a big number. Bet on Kansas City minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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01-01-18 | Alabama -3 v. Clemson | Top | 24-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
Alabama vs. Clemson 8:45 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: Alabama -3.0 (10*) This line tells me everything. We have the #4 seed Alabama as a favorite against top seeded Clemson in a playoff semifinal game. The Crimson Tide will also be out to revenge last year’s national title game last second loss to Clemson. Alabama is just as good as they were a season ago. Despite what the so-called experts on television are professing, I don’t believe that to be the case for Clemson. Bet on Alabama minus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-01-18 | Georgia -2 v. Oklahoma | 54-48 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
Georgia vs. Oklahoma 5:00 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: Georgia -2.0 (5*) Sometimes it’s just best not to overthink when it comes to sports handicapping. This qualifies as one of those scenarios for me. Both these offenses are very good. However, the big difference comes on the defensive side of the ball, and Georgia is vastly superior in that area. The Bulldogs allowed just 13.2 points and 270.9 yards per game. Bet Georgia for a 5* wager. |
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01-01-18 | LSU v. Notre Dame UNDER 52 | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
Notre Dame vs. LSU 1:00 PM ET Game# 269-270 Play On: Under 52.0 (5*) LSU has gone 5-1 under the total this season when playing a neutral site or away game. Those contests averaged just a combined 40.3 points scored per game. LSU finished their regular season schedule with a 45-21 win over Texas A&M. During the past 2 seasons, LSU is 7-0 under the total following a game in which they scored 37 or more, and those contests averaged a combined 38.0 points scored per game. Both these defenses have been solid this season with LSU allowing 18.7 points per game, and Notre Dame giving up 21.8 points per contest. LSU closed the regular season by winning 3 of its last 4 games. Notre Dame has gone 8-2 during its final 10 regular season contests. Any team (LSU) playing on a neutral field with a total of 49.5 to 56.0, and they’ve won 3 of their last 4 games, versus an opponent (Notre Dame) which has won 8 or more of their previous 10 games, resulted in those contests going 32-10 (76.2%) under the total since 1992. The average total in those 42 games was 52.9 and there was 43.7 points scored per contest. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 5* wager. |
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01-01-18 | Central Florida +11 v. Auburn | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
Central Florida vs. Auburn 12:30 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Central Florida +11.0 (5*) Motivation is a key element when handicapping college football bowl games. Having said that, I see undefeated and 10th ranked Central Florida having a clear advantage in that aspect. The Golden Knights have been given very little respect all season long due to their perceived weak schedule. Now they get an opportunity to silence their critics against one of the top teams from the SEC. Conversely, Auburn blew a golden opportunity to reach this year’s college football playoff resulting from being blown out by Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Their consolation prize is a bowl game against a “Group of 5 School” in a situation they have a lot to lose and very little to gain. Central Florida is the top scoring team in the nation that averages 49.4 points per game. The Golden Knights have scored 45 points or more in each of their previous 4 games. This sets up a very profitable ATS betting angle which is displayed below. Any underdog of 3.5 to 10.0-points (UCF) that averages 31 or more points per game, and they scored 42 points or more in each of their previous 2 games, resulted in those underdogs going 52-24 ATS (68.4%) since 2008. Those underdogs also won 37 of those 76 games straight up. Bet on Central Florida plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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01-01-18 | South Carolina v. Michigan OVER 42 | 26-19 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
South Carolina vs. Michigan 12:00 PM ET Game# 265-266 Play On: Over 42.0 (5*) The Michigan Wolverines have gone 5-1 over the total this season when there’s been a total of 42.5 to 49.0. Those 6 contests average a combined 49.5 points scored per game. In their lone neutral site game, South Carolina defeated NC State 35-28, and that contest easily went over the total of 49.5. The present number of 42.5 will be a 2nd lowest total for South Carolina. The Gamecocks saw a closing total of 41.5 against Florida in a game that saw South Carolina come out on top 28-20. The Gamecocks enter this Outback Bowl having won 5 of their final 7 regular season games. Any college football team (South Carolina) that’s playing in January, with a total of 42.5 to 49.0, and they won 4 or 5 of their previous 6 games, resulted in those contests going 28-5 (84.8%) over the total since 1992. There was a combined average of 56.8 points scored per game during those 33 contests. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 5* wager. |
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12-31-17 | Bengals +10 v. Ravens | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show | |
Cincinnati @ Baltimore 4:25 PM ET Game# 301-302 Play On: Cincinnati +10.0 (5*) Despite their 9-6 (.600) record, Baltimore is an overvalued team. The Ravens 9 wins this season have come against opponents that currently have a combined 45-105 (.300) record. Their only win against a team without a losing record came over a 8-7 Detroit team. The Ravens held on for dear life last week in a 23-16 win over the 3-12 Colts, and they failed to cover as a large 13.5-point favorite. Cincinnati showed some hear in last Sunday’s 26-17 win over Detroit which eliminated the Lions from playoff consideration. This may also be the final game in the 17-year tenure of Marvin Lewis as the Cincinnati Bengals head coach. That surely will spark some added emotion and especially so for some of the Bengals veteran players. Any road underdog with a losing record, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .510 to .600, and they’re coming off a straight up win in which it failed to cover as a favorite, resulted in those road underdogs going 22-2 ATS (91.7%) since 1985. Play on Cincinnati plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-31-17 | Panthers v. Falcons -3 | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
Carolina @ Atlanta 4:25 PM ET Game# 307-308 Play On: Atlanta -3.0 (5*) The 11-4 Panthers have clinched a NFL Wild Card berth and still has a chance of winning the NFC South. They’ll need to win on Sunday and hope Tampa Bay can upset New Orleans. Truth be told, it’s an unlikely scenario to occur. Atlanta is coming off a 23-13 loss at New Orleans last Sunday which ended a modest 2-game Falcons win streak. Atlanta is now 9-6 (.600) on the year and has yet to clinch a NFC Wild Card berth. They can make it easy on themselves by just defeating Carolina on Sunday and it will secure a spot in postseason action. Atlanta will also be out to revenge a narrow 20-17 defeat at Carolina earlier this season. With their playoff lives at stake, and playing at home, it will give the Falcons enough of an emotional edge. Any home favorite (Atlanta) that’s won 2 of their last 3 games, and they have a win percentage of .510 to .600, versus an opponent (Carolina) with a winning record, resulted in those home favorites going 31-6 (83.4%) ATS since 2008. Bet on Atlanta minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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12-31-17 | Cardinals +9 v. Seahawks | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show | |
Arizona @ Seattle 4:25 PM ET Game# 327-328 Play On: Arizona +9.0 (5*) Seattle has really struggled offensively in their past 2 games, evidenced by them amassing just 149 and 136 yards of total offense in those contests. Somehow, they came away with a 21-12 win at Dallas last week as a 4.5-point underdog. That victory was aided by 3 Cowboys turnovers while they committed none of their own. Seattle has eclipsed the 100-yard rushing mark in only 7 of its 9 games this season. They’ll be facing an Arizona defense on Sunday which has allowed 91 yards or less rushing in each of their previous 5 games. The Seahawks are a dismal 1-4 ATS as a home favorite this season and includes 0-3 ATS in its last 3. Speaking of Arizona’s defense, they’ve allowed a mere 9.0 points and 238.3 yards per game during its last 3 contests. The Cardinals are coming off a dominating 23-0 win over the Giants last Sunday, and they’re 7-8 heading into their regular season finale. Any underdog of 9.5-points or less that’s playing after Game 10 of the season, versus an opponent coming off a straight up underdog win, and they (Seattle) have a win percentage of .510 to .600, resulted in those underdogs going an outstanding 45-11 ATS (80.4%) since 1980. Those underdogs also won 29 of those 56 games outright. |
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12-31-17 | Bills -2 v. Dolphins | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
Buffalo @ Miami 4:25 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Buffalo -2.0 (10*) Buffalo is still alive for an AFC Wild Card berth. First and foremost, the Bills must win, or they’ll be eliminated from any postseason possibilities. Buffalo starting quarterback Tyron Taylor has enjoyed much success in his 5 starts against Miami since 2015. Taylor completed 65% of his passes for 1232 yards and 9 touchdowns while throwing 0 interceptions. Taylor also ran for 193 yards and 2 touchdowns in those outings. Buffalo went 3-2 in those games, and their only 2 losses came by just 3 points each. During Taylor’s 14 starts this season, Buffalo turned the ball over just 10 times. Miami quarterback Jay Cutler had a miserable day against Buffalo just 2 weeks ago. Cutler was intercepted 3 times during that 24-16 loss and looked totally disinterested and frustrated for most of the game. Miami has an awful -13 turnover margin this season, and they’ll be facing a Bills team which is +8 in that category. Don’t be surprised if you don’t see Dolphins backup quarterback at some point in this game. Fales has been taking a high volume of first team reps in practice this week. I’m going with the team that will be playing with a sense of urgency. Bet on Buffalo minus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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