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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-26-19 | Clippers v. Mavs +2 | 114-99 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
11-26-19 | Western Michigan -8.5 v. Northern Illinois | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
Western Michigan/N. Illinois 7:00: Western Michigan has a chance to represent the MAC West in MAC Championship with a win here; therefore, much to play for. As for Northern Illinois, playing for pride; however, not much shown this season in comparison to yesteryear. The Huskies had a nice run in MAC contention and bowl games up until this season under new HC Hammock. He's taken this team a step backwards. N Illinois riddled with mistakes (-7 turnover margin) sloppy play and poor decision making. QB Childers, in for starter Bowers (concussion), threw 3 INTs last week and he'll have to go against another opportunistic defense in WM. WM, (+7 turnover margin), should ride their thoroughbred - Bellamy - in the cold Huskie Stadium. WM had an extra week of prep and, because they're bowling and have something to play for, that should pay dividends. And although WM hasn't shown strength on the road, the sparse crowd in DeKalb will have no effect on them here. Huskies just 3-8 ATS after allowing 40+ and 3-13 ATS after a double-digit loss at home. WM the call. |
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11-26-19 | Wichita State -3.5 v. South Carolina | 70-47 | Win | 100 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +4 | 45-6 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 34 m | Show | |
Ravens/Rams 8:15: At first glance, Ravens appear to be the call; after all, they're coming off four straight dominating wins. And three of four of those vs very good teams: Seattle/New England/Houston. The press has Lamar Jackson as the front runner for MVP and that isn't far fetched by an stretch. But not so fast. LA Rams' DC Wade Phillips had the fortune of watching film on Jackson gobbling up yardage on the previous opponents and, similar to a pro golfer standing behind a foe as he putts on an undulated green, can use that to formulate a plan of action. Rams have a good run stop unit (#4 allowing 89 YPG) and improving secondary. We'll look for Phillips' defense to find a way to corral Jackson while taking away running lanes he's so accustomed to hit. On the other hand, Rams' offense showed promise last week as Gurley stepped up his game (97 yards on 25 carries). Ravens' defense is 25th vs the run and Gurley can be the gateway to getting QB Goff comfortable in the pocket again. And he may have that tonight with Cooks and Woods back in action; consequently, that should take the pressure off Kupp who can now be that great possession guy again. Rams have been underrated virtually all season and quietly accumulated a 7-3 ATS mark this season. I'll take them here. |
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11-24-19 | Packers +3.5 v. 49ers | 8-37 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 9 m | Show | |
Packers/49ers 8:20: Packers coming off a bye this late in the season is a good thing. They're in great position for the playoffs and they get a chance to get their bodies rested and the injured back on the field. GB a sweet 22-12 SU off a bye week and they've covered 3 of 4 on the road this year. And they've had success at SF at 7-2-1 ATS. SF, on the other hand, showing signs of attrition. They've gone just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games. Sure, TE Kittle will help Garoppolo tonight, but we'll grab the points in prime time with Aaron Rodgers. Shannahan just 2-10 ATS at home after scoring more than 22 points. GB the call. |
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11-24-19 | Bucs v. Falcons -3.5 | Top | 35-22 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Bucs/Falcons 1:00: These teams heading into the opposite direction with TB plummeting on an 0-6 ATS slide while the Falcons have reversed course to grab three straight covers including a 2-0 SU/ATS roll in impressive fashion. On comes another NFC South Division rival that is beatable. Falcons' QB Ryan should torch the TB defense that allows an NFL worst 31.3 PPG. On the the other hand, now that the Falcons have found their pass rush, Winston will again be vulnerable. He's thrown 18 INTs this season and fumbled 8X over his last 5 games. Falcons 7-3 ATS after allowing less than 15 points previously. Home team in this series 4-0 ATS while the favorite is 11-5-1 ATS. Falcons the call. |
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11-24-19 | Raiders v. Jets +3 | 3-34 | Win | 101 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Raiders/Jets 1:00: Raiders getting much praise and sitting well in the AFC West; however, a closer look reveals they've beaten teams with a combined 7-23-1 record. Surely the Jets fall in to the loser category as well but this is a tough spot for Oakland. They have to travel cross country to cold and rainy East Rutherford for an early game - clearly out of their element. Raiders are just 1-3 ATS at MetLife Stadium vs the Jets. Sure, the Jets' offense leaves much to be desired but now that Sam Darnold has gotten back, the Jets are coming off two solid wins with some offensive firepower; moreover, even RB Bell has scored a TD in his last 2 games. And the Jets' defense is no joke. They're improving dramatically. Jets' HC Gase 6-1 ATS at home vs opponent off back-to-back SU wins. We'll take the field goal with the home team. |
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11-24-19 | Panthers v. Saints -9.5 | 31-34 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Panthers/Saints 1:00: Saints suffered a brief bump in the road on November 10th vs Atlanta; however, bounced back nicely vs TB last week. Meanwhile, Carolina running out of its magic as QB Allen has 3 TDs with 8 INTs over his last 4 games. Won't get easier today vs a stout New Orleans defense that can get after QBs. Allen has been vulnerable to sacks during losing streak. We'll look for Drew Brees to keep it rolling as Michael Thomas continues to break recepeption records and RB Kamara should follow up an impressive return last week with another big game. |
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11-23-19 | Nebraska -6 v. Maryland | 54-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
Nebraska/Maryland 3:30: Both teams struggling but Nebraska still has a chance to go to a bowl if they win out. We'll look for them to get by Maryland which proved it get beat the lightweights but get blown out when faced with a competitive team. Not a fan of Locksley who did nothing when at New Mexico years ago. And his team has not been competitve in his losses, not only losing on the scoreboard but in the stats by a wide margin! On the other hand, Nebraska's HC Frost has his men competitive. They ran the rock well as RB Mills led the way gutting the Wisconsin defense for 7.7 YPC! We'll look for the 'Huskers to clean up their mistakes and cruise in this one.  |
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11-23-19 | Texas A&M +13 v. Georgia | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Texas A&M/Georgia 3:30: Georgia now in the #4 spot after getting by Auburn. And they're likely "eating the cheese" as they relish another shot at the National Championship; however, not so fast as Texas A&M is no joke. They're coming off a blowout of South Carolina and usually handle blowout wins well as their 7-2 ATS mark indicates after a 20+ point win. A&M QB Mond has plenty of weapons at his disposal, a sound offensive line as well. Georgia's defense, as good as it is, can be worn down late as indicated last week after Auburn actually outrushed them. A&M HC Fisher can call plays with the best of them. And A&M's defense highly underrated. The Aggies lost all 3 to Top 10 opponents (Clemson/Alabama/Auburn) yet competive in all. Pretty good value here as A&M looks for their signature win. With Georgia just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 homies, we'll grab the points. |
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11-23-19 | Michigan v. Indiana +10 | 39-14 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
Michigan/Indiana 3:30: The jury still out on Michigan when they hit the road vs quality opposition. They got smothered at Wisconsin, did not cover at Illinois, lost SU at Penn State and now enter a dangerous Memorial Stadium in Bloomington where Indiana has covered 4 of 5. And despite a shellacking from Ohio State, the Hoosiers sport a Top 20 defense (yards allowed) and the #12 passing team in the nation behind Peyton Ramsey. Indiana has gone 3-0-1 ATS in this series. With Michigan just 3-8 ATS on the road and Ohio State looming over them next week, I'm taking the points.. |
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11-23-19 | Boston College +21 v. Notre Dame | 7-40 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
Boston College/Notre Dame 2:30: BC on a decent 4-2 ATS run. They need one more win to be bowl eligible and should be competitive here. BC is 20-8 ATS on the road, 5-1 ATS at Notre Dame, and 14-3-1 ATS as a road dog. ND just 3-6 ATS as home chalk and can't be trusted in November at 7-16-1 ATS. BC's QB Grosel finally showing signs of gaining confidence after taking over for injured starter - Brown; of course, he's got a really good RB Dillon and solid TE Hunter to help him. BC offensive line can hold its own (with the exception of Clemson). BC should cover here. |
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11-23-19 | Penn State v. Ohio State -18 | 17-28 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Penn State/OSU Noon: Penn State does have a solid Top 20 defense and an offense that produces 428 YPG. And yes, QB Clifford has a few weapons in RB Journey Brown and WR Hamler; however, don't believe they're offensive line can hold up against the front 7 of OSU, especially now that DE Chase Young returns. OSU is the #1 defense in the nation in yards and points allowed! And offensively, Justin Fields and company may be held in check for a quarter or two but gradually will pull away and assert themselves late for the win and cover. Penn State HC Franklin a shaky 1-13 ATS on the road vs opponents greater than .666 win %; moreover, 1-7-1 ATS as a road dog of less than 25 points. |
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11-22-19 | Colorado State +7 v. Wyoming | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -130 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
Colorado State/Wyoming 9:30: Wyoming has struggled since they lost their duel threat QB in September. They're offensive line is also banged up after coming off 2 straight losses. Rams, meanwhile, have gone on a 3-1 SU/ATS run. They lost their QB Hill (ACL) but O'Brien has done a nice job as the backup. Rams are coming off a home loss to Air Force; however, AF triple option difficult to prep for in a week. Rams are 10-2 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. And they're 18-6 ATS in their last 24 road tilts. With the road team at 5-1 ATS in this series, we'll grab the TD with the road team. |
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11-21-19 | Colts +4 v. Texans | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
Colts/Texans 8:20: This one I delayed until knowing if T.Y. Hilton (calf) is good to go. Hilton has been a nightmare to Houston; in 8 games, he's caught 46 passes for 1018 yards and 7 TDs! He remains questionable but based on reports, he should go. Moreover, the Colts are well guided under Reich. Consider this: The Colts are an amazing 10-1 ATS vs teams above .500. QB Brissett stepped in nicely last week and so did backup RB Jonathon Williams behind perhaps the strength of their team - Offensive Line. Texans' defensive front not the same without DE Watt. Texans just 2-8 ATS vs winning teams and not a good home favorite at 1-4 ATS. Moreover, Texans just 2-7 ATS on Thursday compared to Colts 12-4-1 ATS mark. Yes, Watson and Hopkins is a lethal combination but like the way the Colts' defense is playing now. Colts the call. Â |
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11-21-19 | Blazers v. Bucks -13 | 129-137 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Blazers/Bucks 8:05: Blazers have not fared well in this series and currently not playing good basketball; consequently, that's a recipe for disaster against one of the hottest teams in the NBA. Blazers' Stotts said, "I liked what I saw" with new addition Carmelo Anthony on the floor. Does he realize they were outscored by 20 when he was on the floor? Without Lillard, Blazers should continue to struggle. On the other hand, Giannis and Bledsoe should continue to light it up. Â |
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11-20-19 | Toledo v. Buffalo -8 | 30-49 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
Toledo/Buffalo 7:30: Hard to imagine Jason Candle's team getting 8 points against a MAC opponent. But it's true and justified. Based on inability to hang in conference games on the road with turnovers offensively and poor defense, Toledo has been embarrassed on the conference road vs lightweights Bowling Green and, to a lesser degree, Ball State. As for Buffalo, with the exception of an inexplicable breakdown late to Kent State, the Bulls have been a solid play at UB Stadium (13-4 ATS). Tonight, in the November chill of Buffalo, they'll pound the rock with Patterson and Marks. QB Vantrease (6 TDs/1 INT) has done a nice job managing the games in the absence of starter Myers. Ball control and good defense should be enough to deliver tonight for the Bulls who are vying for bowl eligibility with this win. |
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11-18-19 | Chiefs v. Chargers +5 | 24-17 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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11-17-19 | Bears +7 v. Rams | 7-17 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 24 m | Show | |
Bears/Rams 8:20: Rams offensive line in tatters and that doesn't bode well against a hungry Bears' front. Goff has succumbed to much pressure this year and it surely won't get easier tonight. He'll be missing one of his key vertical threats in Cooks and RB Gurley still showing signs of lingering injury issues. And defensively, Rams' secondary not what it was a year ago. Rams got shut down in Chicago last season (6-15) and want revenge; however, the numbers don't stack up under McVay: He's 1-4 ATS with revenge vs an opponent off a division game. |
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11-17-19 | Texans +5 v. Ravens | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Texans/Ravens 1:00: Texans off a big win in London followed by a bye week should result in money today. Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 bye weeks under O'Brien; moreover, teams off wins in London followed by a bye are a sweet 6-1 ATS. Texans' secondary held up well in London and now had a chance to get healthy. Corners: Conley, Joseph and Roby are good to go and now Hargreaves (acquired from TB) is joining mix. The Texans had extra time to construct a game plan to contain Lamar Jackson. Baltimore overdue to fall and it should come here. Ravens just 1-6 ATS vs the AFC South and sport a poor 1-10 ATS mark off SU/ATS win vs opponent off a double digit SU/ATS win. Furthermore, Ravens 5-12-2 ATS off a SU win of 14+. And remember that Houston has a playmaker of its own in QB Watson who is quietly have an amazing season too: 70% completions/18 TDs/5 INTs. Texans a dangerous dog here. |
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11-17-19 | Bills v. Dolphins +7 | 37-20 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Bills/Dolphins 1:00: Dolphins have turned it up several notches since early season blowouts; as a matter of fact, Miami has covered 5 straight including 2-0 run SU. They're looking to avenge earlier season loss. With QB Fitzpatrick under center at home, always dangerous getting points. Miami running the rock well and should deliver here. Buffalo showing signs of slippage on a 1-2-1 ATS slide including vs Miami Week 7.  |
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11-17-19 | Jets +2.5 v. Redskins | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
Jets/Redskins 1:00: Redskins play like they're throwing in the towel and having a bye week this late in the season won't do them any justice. Redskins 1-7 ATS in their last 8 following a bye. Callahan has given the keys to Haskins to finish the season. That's like throwing a sheep into a wolves den. Haskins clearly not grasping the heavily detailed offense Callahan is known to employ. Jets' defense devours the run (#2) and should be unleashed from all angles on Haskins today. On the other side of the ball, Darnold is a much better quarterback than his counterpart and has a pretty good supporting cast in RB Bell (overdue for a big game vs Redskins' 28th defense vs run) and speedy receivers to work a poor Redskins' defense that doesn't put a whole lot of pressure on QBs. Redskins were outgained 52-18 during their 3 game slide and that gap should widen after today. Jets the call. Â |
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11-16-19 | Oklahoma v. Baylor +10.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
Oklahoma/Baylor 7:30: Oklahoma has had its share of problems against winning Big 12 teams. Last week we cashed in on Iowa State as a road dog and they were a 2 point conversion away from steeling a SU win. Tonight, it won't get any easier for the Sooners. They're defense has worn down over the course of the season as the 48 and 41 points in back to back weeks indicate. They'll have their hands full with QB Brewer and company who have an experienced offensive line that's plowed backs to 188 YPG (5 YPC); morover, they spread the field as well as anyone in the league with a plethora of athletes. On the other hand, Baylor's defense held its own with some pretty good offenses. Sure, this is the best offense they'll face, but we'll give the edge to the home team in revenge mode. Sooners just 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 road games. Baylor hangs tight. |
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11-16-19 | Minnesota +3 v. Iowa | 19-23 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
11-16-19 | Georgia v. Auburn +3 | 21-14 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
Georgia/Auburn 3:30: Georgia just a victory away from clinching the SEC East but it's not going to be easy. Auburn has taken on a tough schedule and slugged it out with some of the best with just 2 losses - both on road including a 3 point loss and cover at #1 LSU. Sure, Georgia has that awesome defense that hasn't allowed a rush TD all season, and, on the offensive end arguably the best back in the nation in Swift. But keep in mind that Auburn is 18th in the nation in rush TDs and 19th in the nation in rush yards per game (220 YPG). Also keep in mind that the Tigers play the run well (Top 20 run stop unit) and structurally well positioned across the board overall defensively. And yes, they're off a bye week and usually take advantage of it (5-0 ATS). Oh, and they're seeking to avenge last year's 27-10 loss at Georgia. Did I mention that they're 7-0 ATS as dogs with revenge vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins? Auburn the call. |
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11-16-19 | Navy +7.5 v. Notre Dame | 20-52 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
Navy/Notre Dame 2:30: Navy has given ND lots of problems over the past few decades including at South Bend where the Midshipmen sport an 11-2 ATS mark. Navy is once again a threat after a down 2018. Sure, the line has tightened (+7') but deservedly so. The Navy defense is structurally improved and their offense is back to running like a well oiled machine. FB Carothers is pounding out nearly 10 YPC! And with an extra week to prep for ND, Navy should be ready. On the other hand, ND didn't have a bye week and the triple option is tough to prep for. And not the greatest time to take on Navy. ND HC Kelly a shaky 6-16-1 ATS in November. Navy the call. |
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11-16-19 | Tulane v. Temple +6 | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Tulane/Temple Noon: Tulane is getting better every year under Fritz and having a great year; however, a bit overvalued to be giving a sound Temple team a near TD on its home field. Temple is coming off a masterful defensive performance against USF. The Owls are 41-17-1 ATS after allowing less than 100 yards rushing. Sure, Tulane has that explosive offense but keep in mind their QB McMillan accounts for alot of that offense including leading rusher. We'll look for Temple to scheme accordingly and play them tough. Owls 4-1 ATS in last 5 home games and we'll grab points here. |
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11-15-19 | Fresno State +1 v. San Diego State | 7-17 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
11-15-19 | 76ers v. Thunder +3 | 119-127 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
76ers/Thunder 8:05: Thunder has a brief history of responding favorably off a blowout loss of 10+ points at 4-0 ATS. They're also 4-0 ATS on 2 days rest and had time to prep for a 76ers team that probably will be without Embiid (knee soreness). And the 76ers have not had success in Oklahoma City at 1-4 ATS. We'll take the points. |
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11-15-19 | Spurs v. Magic -3.5 | 109-111 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 37 m | Show | |
Spurs/Magic 7:05: Spurs struggling to find their game in a 1-5 SU/ATS funk. Defensively, they're in the bottom tier of the NBA; as a matter of fact, the past three games, they've yielded 135, 113,129 respectively! And Wednesday, they shot a poor 17% from the perimeter in getting blown out in Minnesota. Now they go into a confident Orlando arena where the Magic come off a big win over Philadelphia. Orlando is the #1 defense in the NBA. Sure, they're in the bottom tier offensively, but now learning to translate defensive stops into offensive buckets. Their offense is picking up a bit as Vucevic and Gordon are getting some good support. Even former #1 pick Fultz contributing well. Orlando 7-2 ATS after scoring 100+ and they're 15-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games. Spurs a money burning 1-11-1 ATS after allowing 125+. Orlando the call. |
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11-14-19 | Steelers +3 v. Browns | 7-21 | Loss | -116 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
Steelers/Browns 8:20: Browns have covered 4 of the last 5 in this series but ALL as a dog! Now the Brownies are cast in a role where they've not been good: At home and as a favorite. Browns are a money burning 9-23 ATS at home, 7-19-1 ATS in November, and 1-4 ATS off a SU win. Steelers on a sweet 6-1 ATS run and I'm going to continue to ride them here. Steelers' defense starting to play up to its potential, especially after finding missing piece - S Fitzpatrick - a few games back. We'll look for the Steelers' Heyward, Dupree, Watt to disrupt Mayfield's game. And former Browns' CB Joe Haden is turning back the clock playing great football. Offensively, Rudolph getting the job done while his receiving mates including former college buddy - Washington - turning up their game! Steelers a strong prime time team including 4-0-1 ATS on Thursday; moreover, they're 13-2 ATS off SU/ATS win vs less than .500 division opponent off SU win. Pittsburgh the call. |
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11-14-19 | North Carolina +4 v. Pittsburgh | 27-34 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
NC/Pittsburgh 8:00: Tar Heels 6-0 ATS off a bye and should keep this one tight. The last 3 games in this series tight (combined 7 points victory margin). Tar Heels find a way. |
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11-13-19 | Warriors v. Lakers -8 | 94-120 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
Warriors/Lakers 10:05: Warriors' HC finding out what life in the NBA is without star power. He's got former Laker G Russell as virtually is only weapon now. And the Warriors' defensively are in the bottom tier in the NBA allowing a whopping 122 PPG. They'll continue to take their lumps here vs the rebuilt Lakers. Lakers getting healthier as Rondo back in the fray to add to an already dangerous veteran lineup. |
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11-13-19 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH -17 | 3-44 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Bowling Green/Miami OH 8:00: Miami OH the much better team here. Sure, BG has won four straight in Oxford but not this season. Redhawks have won and covered 4 of their last 5 MAC games and take on a significantly inferior BG team coming off a bye week. Sure, a bye week this late in the season is generally a good thing, for a winning team; however, BG sitting at 3-6 SU on the year with virtually no shot at a bowl game is a bad thing; after all, losing teams in November off a win followed with a bye week are a dismal 2-9 ATS. BG's offense is pedestrian. It centers around running QB Grant Loy who also leads the team in rushing. Loy has 5 TD/7 INT on the season. He faces a pretty good Miami OH defense. In comparison, Miami OH's defense allows nearly 100 yards per game LESS than BG's. Miami OH's QB Gabbert is nothing to rave about but he and his backfield mates should have career numbers against a Falcons' defense that allows 34 PPG! Technically, BG 1-7 ATS vs an opponent off back-to-back SU win (last one as a dog). Miami OH should cruise. |
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11-13-19 | Clippers +2.5 v. Rockets | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -104 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
Clippers/Rockets 7:35: Leonard not satisfied with an NBA Championship as he's come out of the gate strong along with his mates. Already taking out the Lakers and Raptors, Clippers eyeing another NBA heavyweight and should dispatch them. Houston 0-4 ATS vs teams above .600 while Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in the same role; as a matter of fact, Houston is 0-4 ATS vs winning teams - period! Clippers have gone 4-1 ATS in Houston and should deliver. |
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11-11-19 | Raptors +10 v. Clippers | 88-98 | Push | 0 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
11-11-19 | Seahawks +6.5 v. 49ers | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
Seahawks/49ers 8:15: 49ers clearly look like world beaters at 8-0; however, a closer look reveals weaknesses that Seattle can exploit. 49ers' defense, as good as it is, does allow 4.7 YPC. Seattle's offensive game starts with the run and Seattle has a deep backfield led by Chris Carson (764 yards). And up until now, the best QB the 49ers faced was the Rams' Goff - who isn't having that good of a season. Russell Wilson is playing at MVP caliber and he will show up in Prime Time just like the Prime Time king of coaches - Pete Carroll. And remember, the 49ers' best tackler LB Kwon Alexander (out) will not play; moreover, offensively, SF most likely will be without Garoppolo's favorite target - TE Kittle (knee/ankle). Carroll 10-1 ATS as a dog vs .500 or greater division opponent. And SF has been a money burner off a bye at 0-8 ATS. I like those numbers! |
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11-10-19 | Panthers v. Packers -4.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
Panthers/Packers 4:25: Packers were overdue for a stinker and it hit last week at Los Angeles. Today, look for the Packers to bounce back strong in this spot. Carolina has been winning - on a 3-1 SU/ATS run but not confirmed in out-gaining opponents. They've been beaten in the stats in their last 4 games. It will be difficult for them to create turnovers and stay in this one at Lambeau Field where Rodgers and company should lock in. Carolina's defense has allowed 9 rush TDs over that stretch and that should allow RBs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams to get rolling. GB defense needs to step up and should turn it up a notch on Carolina's QB Allen. |
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11-10-19 | Rams v. Steelers +4.5 | 12-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
Rams/Steelers 4:25: Going to be tough for fair weathered Rams to go into Heinz Field in November and grab a win. Sure, Rams have been road warriors but catching a surging Pittsburgh team that's dangerous in November (74-45 SU). Rams have a long history of struggling in November (43-71 SU) and won't have an easy time here. They're coming off wins over lightweights Atlanta and Cincinnati. Today, grinding out those points will be difficult to come by against a surging Pittsburgh defense. |
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11-10-19 | Bills +3 v. Browns | 16-19 | Push | 0 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
Bills/Browns 1:00: Browns have failed to cover at home (0-3 ATS) and on a dismal 0-4 ATS slide. Hard to lay points with a team in the lower echelon of the league in points scored (25th) and points allowed (23rd). Sure, the Bills have compiled a winning record against losing teams but they didn't make the schedule. And remember, Bills traded punches toe to toe with NE covering the number. Bills have the #3 defense in the NFL in terms of yielding yardage. Technically, Browns a poor 1-8 ATS in their last 8 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Bills 4-1 ATS in this series and should make a game of it. |
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11-10-19 | Lions v. Bears -2.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Detroit/Bears 1:00: Lou Holtz once said, "You're never as good as everyone tells you when you win, and you're never as bad as they say when you lose." The Bears were over-hyped in the pre-season coming off a spectacular 2018; this year, the media is ripping them a new ass and that finally brings some value back to Chicago. Trubisky overdue for a quality game and it should come here; after all, Detroit has the 30th ranked pass defense, allowed 400+ yards in 5 of 8 games this season. Bears' RB Montgomery starting to pick up his game. We'll look for Allen Robinson and RB Cohen to turn up their games a few notches here. On the other hand, Chicago still has a pretty good defense. Bears 3-1-1 ATS last 5 at home in this series and should deliver. |
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11-09-19 | Iowa State +15 v. Oklahoma | Top | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
Iowa State/Oklahoma 8:00: Iowa State used to be the whipping boy for Oklahoma before Matt Campbell got there. To think the Sooners were 73-5-2 SU in the history of this series with routine blowouts for years. Enter Matt Campbell and the Cyclones' culture has changed. Campbell is 3-0 ATS the Sooners including the amazing 38-31 outright as a 31 POINT DOG in Norman in 2017! Campbell still is equipped with enough weaponry to be more than competitive tonight. QB Brock Purdy not as flashy as Hurts but every bit as tough a competitor. he's got a great TE to go to in Kolar, solid steady receivers and an emerging freshman RB in Breece Hall. Defensively, Cyclones every bit as solid as Oklahoma. And remember, Cyclones have out-gained every opponent this season except Baylor (-6). Iowa State 7-0 ATS as a dog off a SU/ATS loss and dangerous here. |
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11-09-19 | LSU v. Alabama -5.5 | 46-41 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
LSU/Alabama 3:30: Books need Alabama after the 'Tide opened at -7 and was bid down to 5'. We'll grab the 'Tide here. Orgeron may finally have an offense at LSU but he's a ATS bust as a head coach going 11-23 SU vs winning SEC teams in his career. Sure QB Burrow is putting up record numbers and has the usual LSU stud receivers to go to; however, remember what Alabama did to them last year AT Tiger Stadium - a 29-0 whitewash. Alabama's reloaded and Tagovailoa (ankle) has good movement in practice. And as good as LSU's receivers are, Alabama's Waddle, Smith and a virtually uncoverable Jeudy are nearly impossible to keep from the end zone. Alabama is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 in this series and a solid 7-2 ATS off a bye. Tide rolls. |
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11-09-19 | Stanford -3 v. Colorado | 13-16 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
Stanford/Colorado 3:00: Stanford does not have its best team this season but one thing about David Shaw's Cardinal is they get better as the season progresses. Shaw 25-7 SU in November; moreover, he and his boys usually dispatch the weak sisters of the PAC 12 this time of year. They're 18-7-2 ATS vs teams below .500 and 10-1 ATS vs less than .666 opponent off a SU/ATS loss. With QB Costello back in the fray and looking to guide his team to bowl eligibility with a few more wins, Cardinal is the way to go here. Colorado is a fade for they're 0-8-1 ATS in November and headed down another inglorious free-fall. |
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11-09-19 | Penn State v. Minnesota +7 | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Penn State/Minnesota Noon: #17 ranked Minnesota can possibly vault to a single digit ranking with a signature win vs #5 Penn State. P.J. Fleck has done an amazing job developing this program as the Gophers attempt to stay undefeated. RB Rodney Smith sets the tone for the Minnesota offense behind a solid offensive line. It won't be easy vs the #2 rush defense in the nation; however, if there is a small weakness Minnesota can exploit, it is Penn State's secondary. Gopher's underrated QB Tanner Morgan has the ability to stretch the field and he's accurate. On the other hand, Penn State is every bit as dangerous as their #5 ranking suggests. Their TE Freiermuth is as good as they get. But Minnesota's defense is rock solid and plays the pass well (#9 in FBS). Antoine Winfield Jr. who has the genes of his old man who played forever in the NFL, is a ball hawking (5 INTs) stud to lead a dangerous secondary. Minnesota gets the edge at home here. Penn State is incredibly consistently inconsistent off ATS covers at 1-7 ATS. Minnesota the call. |
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11-09-19 | Vanderbilt +27 v. Florida | 0-56 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt/Fla Noon: Vanderbilt is a pathetic excuse for an SEC team; nevertheless, they should cover here. They're 4-1 ATS in Florida and catching the Gators at a bad time. Florida has been through SEC's murderer's row taking on the likes of Auburn, LSU, S. Carolina and last week dropping to Georgia. Sure, Florida will pound the crap out the poor run stop unit of Vandy and get in the win column but don't believe they'll cover the inflated number. Vandy's had some recent pathetic teams under Mason yet managed to keep the losing margins tight to the tune of 2, 7, 14 and 10 the last 4 years. Fla is just 2-7 ATS off SU losses and 4-10 ATS in November. Vanderbilt the call. |
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11-07-19 | Heat +1.5 v. Suns | 124-108 | Win | 100 | 19 h 42 m | Show | |
Heat/Suns 9:05: Suns a perfect 7-0 ATS but the money flow should come to a screeching halt here. Devin Booker has been playing out of his mind averaging 26 PPG and Monday dropped 40 on Philadelphia. We'll look for him to run out of gas as cagey coach Spoelstra will find a way to slow him down and force the other average shooting Suns to beat them. Miami, coming off a loss at Denver, is 5-2 SU too. The Heat have gone 16-2 SU in this series. Sure, Nunn is struggling but Miami is well balanced with Butler and Winslow easily able to catch fire. Miami the call. |
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11-07-19 | Chargers v. Raiders | 24-26 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 47 m | Show | |
Chargers/Raiders 8:20: Chargers' QB Rivers is a sweet 9-4 at Oakland Coliseum where he's thrown for 1,217 yards, 8 TDs and only 1 INT. He should torch an Oakland pass defense in the bottom tier of the NFL allowing 300 yards per game; at the same time, LA has gotten their run game cooking with Gordon grinding out 80 yards last week vs the Packers. Gordon has hit 4 straight games of 120+ vs Oakland! Sure, Raiders' offense cooking but liked how the Chargers got after Rodgers and the Packers Sunday. Bosa and Ingram are menacing on the edge and the Raiders' offensive line is hurting. Chargers 4-0 ATS in prime time and 4-0 ATS in Oakland. Chargers the call. |
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11-06-19 | Miami-OH v. Ohio -7 | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
Miami OH/Ohio U 8:00: Miami Ohio's defense keeps them in games but their offense (123rd in FBS) has been dreadful. QB Gabbert has completed just 53% of his passes with 5 TD/5 INT. Run game is respectable and that is what they'll lean on tonight against a Bobcat run-stop-unit that has trouble stopping the run; however, Ohio U defense will surely adjust accordingly to take away Miami's main threat -RB Shelton who cut loose for 148 yards on 14 carries at Kent State prior to their bye. A side note - Kent State defense is at the bottom tier in the FBS. Ohio U has a ground game with a deep backfield. We'll look for the Bobcats to be focused tonight; after all, they're in a revenge mode (30-28 LY) and flourish off a SU win vs an opponent off a SU/ATS win at 11-0 ATS. They're also 6-0 ATS at home off a SU dog win. With the favorite and home team at 3-1-1 ATS in this series, Ohio U the call. |
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11-06-19 | Knicks v. Pistons -3.5 | 102-122 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
Knicks/Pistons 7:05: Even with all the Pistons injury problems, they should deliver here. Knicks still have a dreadful offense (29th in NBA @ 99.6 PPG) and Barrett hitting a stretch of 17 of 48 from floor. Detroit getting good backcourt work from reserves Kennard and Brown. Detroit is 4-1 ATS in this series. Defensive minded HC Casey should find a way to keep NY's offense stagnant. Detroit 8-2 ATS at home vs teams with winning % less than .400. We'll lay a few buckets with Detroit, eager to get back in the win column. |
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11-05-19 | Lakers -7 v. Bulls | 118-112 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
11-04-19 | Cowboys v. Giants +7 | 37-18 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
Cowboys/Giants 8:15: Heavy Dallas supporters for this one but we'll take the touchdown with the home team. Cowboys not a great prime time team and struggle on MNF (4-10 ATS). Giants are seeking to avenge their opening day loss and should be competitive here. Giants' QB Daniel Jones now at the helm and showing signs of maturity as the season progresses. And he has speedster Slayton and a healthy RB Barkley will surely help. Cowboys' pass defense (9th) leaves much to be desired. And linebacker depth thinned with Vander Esch (neck) on the mend. He covers lots of ground on pass plays. Defensively for the Giants, they have their flaws; however, secondary playmakers Peppers and Bethea can make plays; moreover, the Giants have 22 sacks on the year and add Leonard Williams (ready to go). We'll look for NY to hang tough here. |
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11-03-19 | Packers -3.5 v. Chargers | 11-26 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 8 m | Show | |
Packers/Chargers 4:25: Packers rolling and Aaron Rodgers' favorite target Davante Adams should be back today. Chargers barely eked out a win last week at Chicago and come home to a city (Carson) where they get little fan support; as a matter of fact, there will be more GB fans in this stadium than Chargers' supporters. GB 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Chargers' run game (69 YPG) can't get going even with Gordon back. And Chargers will have to adapt to new OC after Whisenhunt let go earlier this week. Technically, Chargers 2-10 ATS as a home dog of more than 3 points vs an opponent off SU/ATS win. |
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11-03-19 | Lions +3 v. Raiders | 24-31 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
11-03-19 | Bears +4.5 v. Eagles | Top | 14-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
Bears/Eagles 1:00: Revenge spot for Chicago, which is stewing about last season's playoff last second FG doink. Bears still haven't corrected the doinks (FG miss in last seconds last week) but do remain very competitive under competent HC Nagy. Bears' QB Trubisky starting to gather confidence, especially since rookie RB Montgomery grinding out yardage. And WR Allen Robinson II continues to shine. Remember, he had a huge day vs Philadelphia last January. And Philadelphia's pass defense (21st in NFL) leaves much to be desired. On the other hand, Chicago's defense still strong under new DC Pagano. Technically, Bears 5-0 ATS vs opponent off SU dog win. And they're 18-4 ATS before Detroit. Eagles' HC Pederson just 1-6 ATS at .500 or greater off non-division game vs opponent off back to back SU losses. Bears get er done. |
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11-03-19 | Texans v. Jaguars +1.5 | 26-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Houston/Jacksonville 9:30 am: This one is going off early in London. Should not be a problem for Jacksonville; after all, they've done this trip for 4 straight years going 3-1 in the process including a competitive loss. As for Houston, their first trip here. it will be a difficult trip for the Texans who come here banged up - secondary still on the mend, WR Fuller (hamstring) out, J.J. Watt (season ending pec tear). Yes, QB Watson is magical but only so much magic he can do on his own. His offensive line is hobbling and that doesn't bode well for a dominant d-line of the Jaguars and collectively as a team ranked #3 in the NFL in sacks. On the other hand, Jag's QB Minshew II showing magic of his own. And he's got a run game with Fournette to help aid his game. Dog in this series 10-4 and we'll look for Jacksonville to exact revenge from 9/15. |
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11-02-19 | Virginia v. North Carolina -1.5 | 38-31 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
Virginia/North Carolina 7:30: NC's HC Mack Brown doing a great job in putting the Tar Heels in position to win. They should do well here behind freshman QB Howell who has the surrounding talent to deliver at home. NC grinding out 434 yards of offense per game and making big plays defensively. That doesn't bode well for Virginia, which is struggling on the road (1-3) primarily due to turnovers (10). Cavaliers 1-4 ATS in November and will fade them here. |
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11-02-19 | Georgia -6 v. Florida | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
Georgia/Florida 3:30: Despite double-revenge motive for Florida, I'm staying with Georgia here. Gators, and surely reserve QB Trask, will face the best defense in the SEC today. Bulldogs have allowed 267 YPG or 4.3 Yards Per Play. Georgia takes away the run game and makes it extremely difficult to pass downfield. On the other hand, Georgia's run game has continued to roll. They're pounding out 238 Yards Per Game behind RB Swift. In this series, the team that has won the run game has won the game. Veteran QB Fromm should be the benefactor behind Swift to keep the vulture like Florida pass rush unit at bay. Favorite in this series 4-0 ATS and we'll roll with Georgia. |
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11-02-19 | Akron v. Bowling Green -3.5 | 6-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
Akron/Bowling Green 2:00: The Zips flat out cannot run the football ranked dead last in the nation in rush yards per game (56); consequently, QB Nelson under constant duress. BG is not better but has a run game and that will help at home. Akron's defense is pretty bad (36 PPG allowed). The Zips have yet to cover a game this season and it will be another stiff challenge here; after all, they're 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings vs BG. |
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11-02-19 | Nebraska -3.5 v. Purdue | 27-31 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
11-02-19 | NC State v. Wake Forest -7.5 | 10-44 | Win | 103 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
11-01-19 | Bucks -4.5 v. Magic | 123-91 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
10-31-19 | 49ers -10 v. Cardinals | 28-25 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
San Francisco/Arizona 8:20: SF has been Arizona's whipping boy for some time. The 49ers haven't beaten Arizona since Jim Harbaugh was patrolling the sidelines back in 2014. This year, however, the 49ers have what it takes to deliver. Their defense is allowing a meager 224 YPG on just 4.4 yards per play! Arizona's QB Murray is doing a decent job taking care of the football but is limited in weaponry tonight. With RBs' Johnson and Edmonds out, the Cardinals had to grab Drake from Miami. 49ers a bit banged up but Garoppolo starting to get in rhythm and Arizona defense leaves much to be desired. SF 9-0 ATS in Games 9-12 on the road off a SU win vs a less than .500 opponent off a non-division game. SF the call. |
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10-29-19 | Hawks +8 v. Heat | 97-112 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
Atlanta/Miami 7:35: Good value with the Hawks after coming up short yesterday at home vs Philly. Hawks are now 3-0 ATS on the year and should cover here in Miami; after all, Hawks have covered 4 straight in this series and 3-0 ATS in Miami. A short flight shouldn't be troublesome for the Hawks. Too early to get fatigued in back-to-back games. Hawks are 4-1 ATS unrested as well. Sure, the Heat will unleash Jimmy Butler for his season debut. But the chemistry could be altered a bit. Heat rookie Nunn is lighting it up. Anyway, Heat just 1-5 ATS vs a team with a winning road record and they've had trouble on Tuesday (2-9 ATS). We'll look for Young and company to hang around. |
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10-27-19 | Panthers v. 49ers -4.5 | 13-51 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Panthers/49ers 4:05: A defense and a ground game in the top tier of the NFL usually equates with success in the standings. Such be the case of the 6-0 49ers which has choked out all of its opponents. Carolina's QB Allen has been outstanding but will face his toughest test to date: Nick Bosa and Dee Ford have been nightmares for the opposition. If there is a defense which can contain McCaffrey, this is the unit. Carolina overdue to fall flat and it should come here. Panthers a dismal 1-7 ATS rested vs a .500 or greater team. |
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10-27-19 | Broncos v. Colts -4.5 | 13-15 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Broncos/Colts 1:00: Frank Reich doing an amazing job with the Colts, who have been ultra competitive in every game this year. Colts now on a 2-0 SU/ATS run and taking on a Broncos team that got buried 30-6 on their home field on the 17th. Denver has a recent history of shaking off those bad defeats going 0-5 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. Broncos 1-6 ATS in Indy and don't possess enough offense to do damage to a Colts' defense which got back All-Pro LB Leonard last week. Underrated QB Brissett getting it done now that Hilton is back in the fray. Colts the call. |
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10-27-19 | Bengals v. Rams -11 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Bengals/Rams 1:00: Rams got it going last week in a route at Atlanta. Newly acquired Jalen Ramsey made an immediate impact virtually locking down Julio Jones. Today, he'll have an even easier time without A.J. Green (ankle). Now we know why QB Dalton was respectable when Green was tearing up the field since 2011. Bengals now the worst rush team in the NFL with an offensive line that can't get Mixon going this season; moreover, they're also the worst defensive team in terms of total yards and rushing yards. That's a bad combination against a heating up Rams team that's finding its game. McVay should teach his protégé Zac Taylor a serious lesson in London today. McVay 8-2 ATS as a favorite vs less than .500 team off non-division game. |
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10-27-19 | Giants +7 v. Lions | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Giants/Lions 1:00: Lions have been a good underdog play virtually all season at 4-1 ATS. But now they're cast in the favorite role in which they struggle. 0-1 in that role this season as a 2' favorite at Arizona. And Patricia is a dismal 1-5 ATS at home vs the NFC. Lions in the bottom tier of the NFL defensively (31st) in terms of yards allowed and passing yards (30th). And trading S Diggs didn't sit over well with teammates. Moreover, offensively the loss of Kerryon Johnson (knee) won't help ward off the rush of Stafford - who's been doing a good job making plays. Today, interception prone Daniel Jones should find a rhythm with Barkley back in action (72 rush last week). Giants have covered 7 of their last 9 road tilts and HC Shurmur is at his best off a home game at 8-2 ATS. Giants the call. |
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10-26-19 | South Florida v. East Carolina +2 | 45-20 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
S. Fla/East Carolina 3:45: Mike Houston gradually turning around East Carolina after a disastrous two years under Scottie Montgomery. Houston has the Pirates on a 3-0 ATS run and brimming with confidence with a strong second half comeback (cover) at UCF last week. We'll look for the Pirates to finally get a win in this series. |
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10-26-19 | Auburn +11 v. LSU | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
Auburn/LSU 3:30: Now that Malzahn took over play calling duties (started in bowl game last year), his offense is cooking; especially in the run game where they're 11th in the nation running the rock. And QB Nix is doing a solid job managing the game. We'll look for Auburn to eat clock and gain yards to keep the explosive LSU offense off the field. Auburn also sports a 23 ranked defense. Auburn a sweet 7-0 ATS as dog of 11 or less with revenge vs an opponent off back to back SU wins. Auburn it is. |
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10-26-19 | Miami-FL v. Pittsburgh -4 | 16-12 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Miami-Fla/Pittsburgh Noon: Miami Fla off embarrassing loss at home to rebuilding Georgia Tech. Today, it won't get easier as the Panthers seeking to avenge last season's 24-3 loss. Panthers' HC Narduzzi is finally shaping his defense to what he had at Michigan State as a DC years ago. Pittsburgh leads the FBS in sacks (36) and that doesn't bode well for the Hurricanes. Miami-Fla has uncertainty at QB with Perry and Jarren Williams both nursing shoulder injuries; moreover, the 'Canes have yielded 31 sacks which is the 4th most in the FBS. Pittsburgh the call. |
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10-26-19 | Liberty -7.5 v. Rutgers | 34-44 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Liberty/Rutgers Noon: At first glance, how can a team that is just in its second year of FBS play be laying 7' points on the road to a Big Ten team? Then you look at the numbers and see why. Rutgers has been mauled by all of its conference opponents, the starting QB and top WR both red-shirted and the HC was dismissed. Rutgers ranks dead last in scoring at 11.1 PPG. On the other hand, Liberty's HC Freeze, who did great things for Ole Miss from 2012 - 16. He's got a solid offensive unit. Defensively, the Flames are struggling but do get back their corners Faulk and Dabney to shore up the secondary this week. Liberty the call. |
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10-24-19 | Redskins v. Vikings -16 | 9-19 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
Redskins/Vikings 8:20: Washington's interim HC Callahan excessively detail oriented but the players at this stage of the season thinking way too much and it's slowing them down. Vikings playing fast and hard and improving on both sides of the ball; moreover, QB Cousins in rhythm with his multitude of dangerous weaponry. Washington defense horrible and it should get ugly. Vikings 7-1 ATS as a home favorite of more than 3 points off back-to-back wins. |
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10-23-19 | Celtics +5 v. 76ers | 93-107 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 1 m | Show | |
Celtics/76ers 7:35: Like this matchup despite the height differential favoring Philadelphia. Of course, Sixers are now in control of Horford to pair with Embiid and Simmons. But Celtics have a bit of speed and shooting advantage with newly acquired Walker (formerly New Orleans), Haywood, Tatum and Brown. Jury will be out on Josh Richardson replacing J.J. Redick. Celtics 5-1 ATS at Philadelphia and like them here. |
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10-21-19 | Patriots -9 v. Jets | 33-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 9 m | Show | |
Patriots/Jets 8:15: Could make a case for NY here. QB Darnold gave life to the dormant Jets' offense last week in their 24-22 home win vs Dallas. And the Jets have covered 5 of the last 6 at home vs NE; moreover, Pro-Bowl LB Moseley (groin) should be good to go. Nevertheless, NE had a bit extra time for this one and Belichick is a dangerous 9-2 ATS as a road favorite with extended rest. Moreover, Jets have gotten outgained in yardage in every game this year including their win vs Dallas. Their run game with Bell is not working for Bell doesn't have the horses to delay and wait for blocking like he did in Pittsburgh. Belichick has taken total control of the defense this year and the Patriots are #1 in virtually every defensive category. Can't see Darnold shredding a well disciplined secondary without a significant run game; moreover, his top receiver Robby Anderson will be locked on CB Gilmore whom has virtually owned Anderson. We'll look for QB Brady to shine when the lights are brightest - as usual. |
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10-20-19 | Eagles +3 v. Cowboys | 10-37 | Loss | -114 | 139 h 11 m | Show | |
10-20-19 | Rams v. Falcons +3 | 37-10 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
10-20-19 | Vikings v. Lions +2.5 | 42-30 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
10-19-19 | Duke +3.5 v. Virginia | 14-48 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
Duke/Virginia 3:30: Duke QB Harris delivering and thankful for run game from Jackson behind a sturdy offensive line. We'll look for the Blue Devils front to hold up against the sack happy Cavaliers. Sure, Virginia has covered 4 straight in this series but Cavaliers' poor offensive line play, has caused a sluggish run game in turn putting QB Perkins under constant duress; as a result: inability to punch it in the end zone could be costly here vs a stout Duke defense. And the loss of CB Bryce Hall (ankle) is a big blow to the Cavaliers. Duke the call. |
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10-19-19 | Tulsa v. Cincinnati -16.5 | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
Tulsa/Cincinnati 3:30: Cincinnati not ready to hang with the likes of Ohio State yet but can surely handle the lightweights of the American Athletic. Tulsa is included in the lightweights after two sub-par season under HC Montgomery. The Golden Hurricane is coming off their 2nd straight loss - 45-17 whitewash vs Navy on their home field. Now, they travel to a pretty strong venue - Nippert Stadium where the Bearcats have covered 4 straight. Bearcats have a solid defense and an offense that can make plays behind QB Ridder who has a dangerous target in WR Medaris. Hurricane defense demoralized vs Navy - allowing 388 yards on the ground. Fickell is 5-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite and we'll roll with him and Cincinnati here. |
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10-19-19 | Temple +9.5 v. SMU | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
10-19-19 | NC State v. Boston College +3.5 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
NC State/BC Noon: This series has been tightly contested in recent years and the Wolfpack were surely not impressive in their last 2 road tilts - blowout losses at West Virginia and Florida State. BC has a solid offensive line (allowed only 3 sacks) to support QB Grosel - who did an admirable job after starter Brown went down at Louisville. BC is 5-1-1 ATS in this series and had an extra week to prepare to avenge last year's 23-28 loss at Raleigh. BC can run the rock with RB Dillon (745 yards) and that will surely help Grosel in play action. NC State still searching for an identity offensively. We'll grab the points with BC which is 18-6 ATS in October and 4-1 ATS following a bye. |
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10-19-19 | Clemson -24 v. Louisville | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
10-18-19 | Marshall +6 v. Florida Atlantic | 36-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos +3.5 | 30-6 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 1 m | Show | |
Chiefs/Broncos 8:20: Broncos showing life after 0-4 start with 2 SU wins and covers. They've been competitive in virtually every game and will surely attempt to mimic the success of Indy and Houston; as a matter of fact, throw in Detroit (cover but SU loss) which out rushed the Chiefs substantially. Denver has the run game with Lindsay and Freeman to keep QB Mahomes off the field. The non explosive Broncos will surely attempt to methodically gain ground and eat clock tonight. KC run stop unit in bottom of NFL tier (30th) and the Chiefs' defense is 27th in yards allowed. Denver has faced some respectable defenses already and will face the weakest of the season tonight. We'll look for Flacco to deliver. KC explosive offensively but Denver has tightened the bolts as the season progressed and found their pass rush. Denver a sweet 10-2 ATS on Thursday, especially dangerous as a Thursday Night home dog 5-2 ATS. |
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10-14-19 | Lions +4 v. Packers | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
Lions/Packers 8:15: Lions have had the Packers' number lately in this series with 4 straight wins. Detroit coming off a bye week which means TE Hockenson will be available to add to an already dangerous Detroit receiving corps of Marvin Jones and Golladay. And RB Kerryon Johnson, coming off a career day vs KC, should carry the rock plentifully vs a GB run stop unit in the bottom tier of the NFL. Defensively, Lions should have CB Slay back to give QB Rodgers a hard time. Rodgers without his top receiver - Adams (toe). Lions in October are a super 10-1 ATS as an above .500 dog vs an above .500 team with revenge. We'll grab the points. |
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10-13-19 | Steelers +7 v. Chargers | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
Steelers/Chargers 8:20: Chargers now a money burning 1-3-1 ATS and back to their unofficial home in Carson where Steelers' fans may outnumber Chargers' fans. Steelers have covered 3 straight and I'm staying on them here. 3rd string QB Hodges knows the offense and has a solid supporting cast to work a middle of the road defense. Defensively, Steelers have some serious talent and it's a matter of time before they mesh. We'll look for Pitt to hang around. Steelers in October are a dangerous 10-0 ATS as a dog off a division game vs non-division opponent. Pittsburgh the call. |
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10-13-19 | Titans +2 v. Broncos | 0-16 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
Titans/Broncos 4:25: I had Denver (+6) as my Top Play last week but I'm fading them here. Titans are predictably unpredictable in a sense that just when you think they've turned the corner and set to begin a win streak, they lay an egg; at the same time, when you write them off after a sluggish performance (like at home vs Buffalo last week) they come back with knock-out power. Expect the latter today. Mariota has taken good care of the rock and RB Henry is overdue for a big game. Denver has yet to win at home and Tennessee is at their best on the road. Titans in October are an impressive 9-2 ATS off a SU loss vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Tennessee the call. |
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10-13-19 | Cowboys -7 v. Jets | 22-24 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Cowboys/Jets 4:25: Cowboys have a tendency to beat up the sub-par teams and we'll jump back on them here. Dallas is 7-1 ATS on the road vs a team with a losing home record. They're also 6-0 ATS in Week 6. Sure, Jets' QB Darnold is back and NY should find some offense; however, Dallas has too many weapons at Prescott's disposal to allow the 24th ranked defense (points allowed) to stop them. Dallas the call. |
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10-13-19 | Seahawks +1 v. Browns | Top | 32-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Seahawks/Browns 1:00: Coaching mismatch as Carroll is a sweet 11-2 ATS as a .500 or greater team vs an opponent off a SU/ATS loss. Browns, coming off a disastrous MNF outing, are a money burning 1-11 ATS after scoring less than 10 pts. On a short week and thin at corner with Ward (hamstring) and Greedy Williams (hamstring) doubtful.The well rested Seahawks, off a huge Thursday Night win, should have QB Wilson work more magic. He has a solid ground game to work off of too. On the other hand, Mayfield having a tough time with poor line play. Seattle will surely improve on their pass rush and it should come today. Seattle the call. |
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10-12-19 | Navy -1 v. Tulsa | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show | |
10-12-19 | Kent State v. Akron +15 | 26-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
Kent State/Akron 3:30: Quite insulting to the Zips to be underdogs of two touchdowns to their fiercest rival. The Zips have never been a two touchdown underdog on their home field to the Flashes. With the exception of the Rob Ianello years (2010-11), the Zips have always been competitive in this series for the highly coveted Wagon Wheel Trophy. I do realize the Zips run game is crappy; however, Kent State's run stop unit is not exactly a stone wall (allowing 279 yards per game); as a matter of fact, the Badgers' RB Jonathon Taylor thrashed them for record setting numbers including 5 TDs! Sure, it was the Badgers and Akron is far from that caliber. Nonetheless, Zips off a bye week and it's iffy if QB Kato Nelson (shoulder) will return. He was in street clothes Tuesday at practice. I do like 3rd stringer Zach Gibson who went in for ineffective backup Robbie Kelley and went 12 of 16 for 173 yards. He does have some receiving weapons. We'll look for the Zips to hang tight here. |
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10-12-19 | Oklahoma -10 v. Texas | 34-27 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
Oklahoma/Texas Noon: Hard to dismiss Texas HC Herman's record as a dog but not comfortable with Texas here. Sooners have the most explosive offense in the nation led by Heisman favorite - Hurts. Texas defense ranked 104th in the nation and their secondary is thin (injuries). Yes, Ehlinger is a dark-horse Heisman candidate himself; however, Oklahoma brings to the Cotton Bowl a Top 50 defense. And Lincoln Riley remains dangerous as a conference road favorite of less than 14 points against .500 or greater teams. Oklahoma delivers. |
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10-12-19 | Memphis v. Temple +4.5 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Memphis/Temple Noon: Rod Carey doing another bang up job to continue Temple's success. Carey, who had great success at Northern Illinois, came over to Philadelphia this season to start the Owls at 4-1. He has some talent to work with as Temple continues to improve its numbers. They're a Top 20 defense and #10 vs the pass which will be vital in stopping the Memphis ground game and QB Brady White. I believe his men are up for the challenge; so far, they've held their last 2 opponents to 5 of 28 on third down. And offensively, the Owls can pound the rock as RB Davis has accumulated 503 yards rushing behind a veteran offensive line. QB Russo has his limitations but makes plays. Memphis just 1-10 ATS on the road vs opponent off a double-digit SU win. Temple's covered four straight in this series and Rod Carey has always been a dangerous conference home dog of a coach. |
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10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots -16.5 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show | |
Giants/Patriots 8:20: Giants covered 5 straight in this series; however, that was in the Eli Manning era when Manning took two Super Bowl wins away from Brady, Belichick and Kraft's trophy case. Daniel Jones enters the new Giants' era and he's guided the Giants to a 2-1 SU/ATS mark. He was awesome against defensive lightweights TB and Washington but struggled vs defensive stalwart Minnesota. Now he has to face the #1 defense in the NFL in points and yardage allowed; moreover, he has to do it at a dominant home field without some of his top weapons and down to his 3rd string RB. Difficult task especially vs Belichick who is 11-0 SU/7-4 ATS against rookie QBs. And let's not forget that the Patriots lead the league in takeaways (12). And throw in that the Giants are 30th in the league defensively. Brady surely overdue to breakout when the lights are shining bright. Technically, Giants' HC Shurmur a dismal 1-7 ATS off a non-division game vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. We'll lay the wood. |
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10-07-19 | Browns +5 v. 49ers | 3-31 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
Browns/49ers 8:15: Browns proved the stage wasn't too big for them when they mauled the Jets in NY on MNF September 16th. Tonight, we'll look for Cleveland to hang tight with SF. Browns are 4-1 ATS vs NFC competition and even gave the incumbent NFC Champs - LA Rams a bit of trouble September 22nd. Defensively, Browns are in good shape; offensively, they broke out last week in Baltimore as Nick Chubb established a run game. Tonight, another dose of Chubb and the Browns will benefit with the return of Antonio Calloway (suspension). Him or OBJ will be matched with SF's weak link corner Moseley, who is now forced to play opposite Sherman because of injuries in that position. We'll look for Baker Mayfield to be on his game. Technically, Shanahan is just 1-8 ATS at home after scoring more than 22 points; moreover, SF a poor 0-8 ATS off a bye week. Cleveland the call. |
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10-06-19 | Broncos +6 v. Chargers | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
Broncos/Chargers 4:05: Everyone and their brother finding Denver as a major go-against, especially after latest choke at home vs Jacksonville last week. And after losing Chubb (ACL), life in Denver is bleak, at best. Nevertheless, I like the value with the Broncos here. They've been competitive in their last 3 games and still have some solid veteran stars. QB Flacco still has some juice and some decent skill players including RB Lindsay. Defensively, Broncos are disgusted RB Fournette ran all over them last week. Look for defensive minded HC Fangio to figure things out and give Denver a fighting chance here; after all, Chargers have not displayed elite status this season; moreover, the win over lightweight Miami is surely not a declaration of dominance or winning momentum. Los Angeles is just 11-27-1 ATS at home and just 1-5 ATS at home vs losing teams. Denver controls a 12-4 SU record in this series and is a dangerous dog here.  |
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10-06-19 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
Bucs/Saints 1:00: Saints doing an amazing job to keep winning momentum after Brees went down. Bridgewater stepped in and delivered as the Saints reeled off 2 straight against good teams - Seattle and Dallas. Like the Saints here as well. Defensively, Saints' pass defense has been porous but responded well last week. TB's Winston had a monster game last week but he's inconsistent and will throw interceptions. And TB's defensive secondary has been vulnerable for most of the season. Technically, interesting to note that Sean Payton is 33-13-1 ATS following consecutive SU/ATS wins including 23-4-1 ATS vs winning foes. He's also 9-2 ATS off a SU win vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Hard to fade those numbers. Saints deliver. |
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10-06-19 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Panthers | 27-34 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Jaguars/Panthers 1:00: Both teams lost their starting QBs and both flourishing in the process. Carolina's Kyle Allen stepped in and guided his team to victories while Gardner Minshew has been fabulous working his magic as well. I'm going to lean to Jacksonville here behind Minshew. He has Fournette (225 yards rushing last week) and a few more vertical threats in Chark, Westbrook and Conley. Carolina super dependent on McCaffrey (411 rush/218 receptions) to ignite offense. I'm looking for Jacksonville's defense to shake up QB Allen and end his magic. Jaguars the call. |
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10-06-19 | Ravens v. Steelers +3.5 | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Ravens/Steelers 1:00: Ravens off 2 straight defeats in which defense gave up a ton of points. Now they're going in to Pittsburgh laying points in a historically tightly contested series in which the dog is 7-1-1 ATS; moreover, I can't remember the last time the Ravens were a favorite on the road in this series. Tomlin has been a dangerous dog in his coaching career including 12-1 ATS as a dog vs a .500 or greater opponent. Sure, Pittsburgh is coming off a short week and banged up a bit; however, they'll be up for one of their most fierce rivals. And they have the quality depth on both sides of the ball to stay competitive, especially on their home field. Pittsburgh the call. |
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