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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-24-21 | Wolves v. Bulls -4 | 126-133 | Win | 100 | 19 h 34 m | Show | |
02-24-21 | Celtics -1.5 v. Hawks | 112-127 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 40 m | Show | |
02-23-21 | Kansas +2.5 v. Texas | 72-75 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 53 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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02-22-21 | Bulls +1 v. Rockets | 120-100 | Win | 100 | 20 h 47 m | Show | |
Bulls/Rockets 8:05: Bulls' HC Donovan getting the best out of limited talent. Lavine has elevated his game while making supporting players better. Chicago a solid 7-1 ATS as a road dog and should be able to deliver an outright over a collapsing Houston team. HC Silas losing the locker room and he's not equipped with the best mix of locker room guys. Rockets' offensive identity out the window when D'Antoni left. Rockets now 23rd in the NBA offensively. Houston 1-9 ATS on Mondays and failed to cover in 6 of last 7 home games. Chicago has not had success in Houston but that should change. |
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02-21-21 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +6.5 | 68-51 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 58 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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02-21-21 | Michigan v. Ohio State -1 | 92-87 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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02-20-21 | Virginia -1.5 v. Duke | 65-66 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 53 m | Show | |
Virginia/Duke 8:00: Virginia the more complete team here. Defensively, #6 in the nation - allowing 59.9 PPG. They're coming off a blowout loss at Florida State after a 4 game win streak. Good wakeup call for the Cavaliers. They're 8-0-1 ATS off a loss and covered 3 of the last 4 vs Duke. Duke 0-7 ATS off a SU win of 20+. Two blowout wins of lightweights - WF and NC State doesn't mean Coach K's team is back. And the Blue Devils aren't a better team without Jalen Johnson (opted out). With the road team 21-6-1 ATS in this series, we'll grab the Cav's here. |
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02-20-21 | Auburn +5 v. LSU | 80-104 | Loss | -116 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
Auburn/LSU 4:00: Both of these teams aren't known for their defensive prowess this season. LSU can score but don't rule Auburn out. Since Sharife Cooper has been inserted in the lineup, Auburn has been in virtually every game. They're 4-0 ATS on the road vs teams with a home win % above .600. Cooper is not only a great scorer (19.6 PPG) but the key facilitator who makes his teammates better. LSU just 1-4 ATS at home. Road team 8-2 ATS in this series and we'll be glad to take the points with Pearl's competitive bunch. |
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02-20-21 | West Virginia +3.5 v. Texas | Top | 84-82 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
West Virginia/Texas 3:00: WV no longer deep enough to go full "Press Virginia" but now have some offensively weaponry that can outshoot opponents; of course, that wasn't the case in their last game on the 13th when they missed multiple one footers and free throw attempts. We'll look for Huggins to have cleaned up their game since and get it together today. The Mounties, which lost Tshiewbe (departure) and Cottrell (Achilles) now go to a smaller lineup to space the floor and allow 6'10" big man -Derek Culver to do his thing. And that smaller lineup can shoot! Sherman, McNeil, Bridges, McBride and Matthews Jr. can ring it up. Texas, on a 1-6 ATS slide, just 8-20 ATS at home vs a team with a road win % above .600. We'll look for sweet revenge for the Mountaineers. |
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02-20-21 | Kentucky v. Tennessee -7 | 70-55 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Kentucky/Tennessee 1:00: Kentucky struggling to find an offense this season scoring just 69.9 PPG at 41.6% from field and 32.6% from perimeter - all in bottom tier of NCAA. Not a good mix going into a strong Tennessee venue. Tennessee controls the #17th ranked defense in the nation allowing just 62.3 PPG. Tennessee already knocked off the Wildcats at Rupp Arena earlier this season 82-71. Johnson and Springer were dominant in that game and now Bailey and Fulkerson are stepping up their game. Tennessee's HC Barnes would love another win over Calipari to establish his presence in the SEC recruiting war. Kentucky 0-5 ATS vs Top 25 and 0-4 ATS on the road against teams with home winning % above .600. Tennessee the call. |
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02-19-21 | Monmouth v. Iona -2 | 86-91 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show | |
02-18-21 | Iowa +1 v. Wisconsin | Top | 77-62 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
Iowa/Wisconsin 7:00: Iowa stepping up its game with a blowout at Michigan State 88-58 on Saturday. The Hawkeyes last two wins pretty impressive because HC McCaffery finally has his guys playing defense. The #3 offense in the nation, that averages an impressive 87.4 PPG, has held its last three foes to a combined 38.3% from the floor and 25.7% from the perimeter - much better than the season average of 42%/34.6%, respectively. Wisconsin, devoid of athletes, will attempt to turn this game into an ugly half court game; however, Iowa has shooters in Weiskamp, Bohannon, Nunge and even the coach's son - Connor McCaffery who team well with one of the top big men in the conference - Luke Garza - who dominates the boards and improving defensively as the season progresses. Wisconsin's Trice tries hard but doesn't have a whole lot of offensive support - as evidenced on Sunday vs a Michigan team that didn't play in nearly three weeks yet managed to shut the Badgers down in the second half (starters 2 of 16). Road team in this series 7-3-1 ATS. We'll grab a point with the better shooting team. |
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02-17-21 | Kentucky v. Vanderbilt +4 | 82-78 | Push | 0 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
Kentucky/Vanderbilt 7:00: Kentucky continues to be overvalued at 5-13-1 ATS on the season and one of Calipari's worst teams at Kentucky. The Wildcats got the best of Vandy in the first game of this series this season but Vandy easily covered as an 11' point road dog. The Commodores are 2-0 ATS in same season revenge under Stackhouse and should deliver at home tonight. Scottie Pippen Jr. has been a consistent scorer and all around facilitator. Disu has been good on the boards and inside threat. If either Evans, Wright or Harvey can give good support tonight, Vanderbilt should deliver. We'll bet they do. |
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02-15-21 | Virginia +1.5 v. Florida State | Top | 60-81 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
Virginia/Florida State 7:00: Virginia poised to knock off Florida State in their dominant venue. The Seminoles struggled at GT in a loss and then took WF to OT before finally pulling it off in a shootout. I can assure you that they won't get those great looks at the basket like they did Saturday. Virginia in a lock down mode defensively controlling the #4 defense in the nation. On the other hand, Florida State has been lax on the perimeter (34.4% allowed - 230th nationally) and that won't cut it vs the dangerous perimeter game of Virginia (39.9%). Cavs 4-1-1 ATS in last 6 on the road and 4-1 ATS after allowing less than 50 points. Virginia 4-1 ATS in this series and we'll roll with them. |
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02-14-21 | Michigan v. Wisconsin +1 | 67-59 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Michigan/Wisconsin 1:00: Wisconsin hasn't beaten a notable opponent in the Big 10 yet but has a good chance here; after all, Michigan hasn't played since January 22nd (Covid19 related issues). The Badgers are eager to avenge their earlier season 77-54 loss. The score wasn't indicative on how bad the loss was; as a matter of fact, the Wolverines went on a 43-6 run before the Badgers made it respectable in garbage time. Currently, Wolverines haven't had much practice time during layoff and out of rhythm. Badgers a good defensive team (21st nationally) and should exact revenge. Badgers 6-1 ATS on Sundays and we'll grab them here. |
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02-13-21 | Northwestern +8 v. Rutgers | 50-64 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 26 m | Show | |
Northwestern/Rutgers 5:00: Northwestern started respectably with a few impressive Big 10 wins and then collapsed on an 0-10 SU slide; however, value coming back to the Wildcats on a 3-1 ATS run. They're looking to avenge January 31st home loss and have a good shot here. They've covered the last two times visiting Rutgers and took the Scarlett Knights to OT in 2 games there in the last 3 trips. Chase Audige needs more help and he should get it here. The Wildcats can spread the floor and hit 3s; after all, they're 2nd in the Big 10 in making perimeter shots. Rutgers not exactly a fortress guarding the perimeter. Rutgers 1-4 ATS off a SU loss and 0-4 ATS vs teams under .400. NW 5-0 ATS on Saturday. With the road team at 4-0 ATS in this series, we'll grab the points with NW. |
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02-13-21 | Villanova -2.5 v. Creighton | 70-86 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
Villanova/Creighton 5:00: Villanova off an impressive 32 point demolition over Marquette is poised to deliver at Creighton. Wildcats distributing the ball well and playing selfless basketball. Villanova had success at Creighton. Villanova is 10-2 ATS on the road vs winning home teams. Creighton off two wins themselves against Marquette and Georgetown as well. Creighton had 17 turnovers vs Georgetown. They can get away with that vs the mediocre Hoyas but not against the well disciplined Wildcats. Road team has covered 4 straight in this series. Blue Jays 0-4 ATS on Saturdays and we'll grab Villanova. |
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02-13-21 | Colgate -4 v. Army | 84-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
Colgate/Army 4:00: Colgate clearly the better team here. Interesting series in which the Red Raiders destroyed Army 101-57 on January 2nd only to lose to them the next day 75-73. Colgate plays better on road and Richardson, Burns and Cummings should be focused here. Black Knights 1-4 ATS at home vs winning road teams. |
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02-13-21 | Oklahoma v. West Virginia -2.5 | 91-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
Oklahoma/West Virginia 1:00: Realize Oklahoma a dangerous team and giant killer; however, West Virginia in good shape to exact revenge from January 2nd loss. A few days prior to that loss, WV HC Huggins found out that his highest rated prospect Oscar Tshiebwe was transferring to Kentucky. The 6'9" potential star, made Huggins retool his team with a 4 guard lineup. They lost 75-71 to Oklahoma but showed promise. They've been on a 6-2 SU/5-3 ATS run since with Miles McBride and Derek Culver taking control while the supporting cast is buying in. WV on a 3-0 SU/ATS tear and we'll look for another winner here. |
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02-10-21 | Connecticut -1.5 v. Providence | 59-70 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 12 m | Show | |
U Conn/Providence 4:00: U Conn at 9-3 ATS this season as Hurley doing a good job building the Huskies in his third season. They're coming off a poor defensive effort against Seton Hall and struggled offensively without a go-to-guy to spark the offense. That should change tonight, as the Huskies welcome back leading scorer Bouknight (elbow) who should ignite the sputtering offense. U Conn averages just 67.3 PPG without him and a healthy 75.5 PPG with him. Huskies playing better on road too, as their 7-0 ATS road mark vs teams with home winning records. They're catching the Friars on an 0-3 SU slide and ripe to get worked here. U Conn sports a 3-1 SU/ATS mark in the last 4 in this series and should deliver. |
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02-08-21 | Gonzaga v. BYU +11.5 | 82-71 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs +3 | Top | 9-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Chiefs/Bucs 6:30: Both teams equipped with the best QBs in the NFL, top of the line skill personnel, and defensive playmakers. What separates TB from KC is the fact that the Chiefs have to shuffle offensive linemen on account of T Eric Fisher (Achilles); consequently, Martinas Rankin, who started one game this season, gets the starting assignment to guard Mahomes back. TB's front 7 is playing at a high level including Top 5 pass rush bookends Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett; moreover, TBs' outstanding linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White are menacing not only against the run but are extremely effective and disruptive blitzing as exhibited in two games against Aaron Rodgers. No other team came close to stopping him for the low numbers he posted. The fact is that the Bucs defense was impressive in the playoffs and also got their revenge against Drew Brees. Sure, Tyreek Hill was incredibly effective carving up TB's secondary to the tune of 3 TDs including explosive play 75 and 45 yard scores in the earlier year matchup. TB's DC Bowles has been effective in making the right adjustments and we'll look for him to do so here. He will have outstanding rookie S Winfield Jr. back in center field. Bucs speed at linebacker and emergence of Murphy-Bunting (3 consecutive post-season games with interception) give TB a fighting chance in the red zone to keep Kelce and Hill and Edwards-Helaire at bay. On the other hand, KC defense in red zone not good; as a matter of fact, they've allowed a generous 76.6% scoring there. Of 5 other Super Bowl defenses that had a red zone efficiency rating at or over 60%, those Super Bowl teams went a collective 0-5 in the big game. With Evans (2 TD's first matchup), Gronk (106 yards first game), Brate + Antonio Brown (both probable), and Ronald Jones - overdue to be utilized out of the backfield, Brady should be able to distribute the ball effectively. And lets not forget that Tom Brady is an amazing 41-17-1 as an underdog. We'll grab the points. |
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02-06-21 | Texas Tech -16 v. Kansas State | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
Texas Tech/Kansas State 4:00: Last time these teams played this season, Tech won but failed to cover at home 82-71. It wasn't a satisfying win for Coach Beard; after all, Tech underachieved on the defensive end allowing K State to score nearly 5 points above their season average. Kansas State is a pathetic 334th in the nation in scoring while Tech is 15th in the nation defensively -giving up just 61.7 PPG. K State is young, ravaged by injuries. We'll look for McClung and company to open up on the perimeter where the Wildcats are most vulnerable - allowing a generous 38.4% from perimeter. Tech, a solid road team covering their last 4 road tilts, should be much more focused here. We'll lay the wood. |
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02-06-21 | Kansas +2 v. West Virginia | 79-91 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
Kansas/West Virginia 2:00: West Virginia struggling to finish games. They almost got upset at home by Big 12 doormat Iowa State. Culver the most consistent player on the team as others unpredictable. Sure, they'll be up for this revenge game against an always tough Kansas team. Kansas lost 4 of 6 to then Top 11 teams. Jayhawks 11-2 ATS on the road vs a team with a home win % above .500. Kansas the call. |
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02-06-21 | Seton Hall v. Connecticut -1 | 80-73 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
Seton Hall/U Conn Noon: Hurley doing a solid job in rebuilding U Conn into a Big East contender. Now 9-2 ATS - virtually competitive in every game. Hurley is now in his third season with U Conn and has improved every year with the Huskies. He has his men playing well despite losing their leading scorer Bouknight on January 5th; since then, U Conn has gone 5-1 ATS by clamping down defensively. U Conn is allowing 63 PPG (29th nationally) and #1 in the conference defending the perimeter. Huskies have gotten consistent scoring from Cole and Martin while Whaley and Polley have been good supporting players. Seton Hall hasn't played U Conn since 2013 and never had good success at U Conn. We'll look for that tradition to stay true here. |
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02-06-21 | Alabama -2 v. Missouri | 65-68 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Alabama/Missouri Noon: Alabama was on a big roll until 'giant killer' Oklahoma knocked them off in Norman. Alabama bounced back strong against a vengeful LSU team February 3rd. Today, we'll look for Shackelford and company to be too much for the Tigers. Alabama a good road team (4-1 ATS). |
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02-04-21 | Nuggets +5 v. Lakers | 93-114 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
Nuggets/Lakers 10:05: Nuggets playing at a high level and HC Malone using talented bench well. Jokic playing at an MVP level leading the Nuggets on a 6-1 ATS run. Denver competitive in this series and have played well in Los Angeles. They've had a few extra days off with the postponement of the Pistons' game. Well rested Nuggets should be ready. Lakers coming off an extended road trip and haven't done well in this role; as a matter of fact, Lakers 0-4 ATS at home following a road trip of 7 or more days. Lakers AD and LeBron dealing with minor injuries, good opportunity for Denver to sneak in a cover. |
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02-02-21 | West Virginia -11.5 v. Iowa State | 76-72 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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02-02-21 | Baylor v. Texas +5.5 | 83-69 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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02-02-21 | Purdue +2.5 v. Maryland | 60-61 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Purdue/Maryland 6:30: Purdue, one of the youngest teams in the Big 10, growing up as they rattled off a 5-1 ATS run. The Boilermakers own 5 wins over Top 25 teams. Newman and Trevion Williams becoming a strong outside-in combination. Terrapins have shown their vulnerability in the paint and also on the perimeter vs good teams. Sure, MD played Purdue tough on Christmas in a 73-70 SU loss at Purdue; since then, Purdue has gotten better while MD has stumbled on a 2-5 ATS slide. Purdue is 2-0 in their last 2 trips to Maryland and we'll grab the points here with the better team. |
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02-01-21 | Georgia Tech +4 v. Louisville | 58-74 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech/Louisville 2:00: Louisville not playing well on a 1-3 SU/ATS slide while Georgia Tech turning it up a few notches. Cardinals got choked out by a mediocre Clemson team scoring just 50 points. Meanwhile, the Engineers upset a very talented Florida State team 76-65. HC Pastner has done a masterful job in teaching GT how to win. Prior to Florida State, the Yellow Jackets lead incumbent champ Virginia by 11 before falling in OT. And a late surge by Duke cost them a win. We'll look for the surging momentum to carry over here vs a declining Cardinals team. Moses Wright and Jose Alvarado a dangerous inside and out combination; moreover, Michael Devoe, who dropped 19 points on Florida State, a major third option threat. Jackets are now 5-0 ATS vs winning teams. Grab the points. |
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01-31-21 | NC State v. Syracuse -5 | 73-76 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 3 m | Show | |
analysis to follow... |
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01-30-21 | Kansas +2.5 v. Tennessee | 61-80 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
Kansas/Tennessee 6:00: Kansas came off three straight losses with a rather unconvincing win at home vs TCU; nevertheless, got it done and the team should be focused here despite what HC Bill Self said regarding facing non-conference Tennessee with conference foe Kansas State on deck. Come on, Kansas can use their second team to dismantle this year's version of lightweight Kansas State. We'll look for Self's bunch to be laser focused here. Tennessee is pretty good defensively but when stepping up to top tier teams, they have yet to shine. Volunteers an underachieving 1-5 ATS vs teams above .500 and has not covered 5 of last 6 at home. Kansas 11-2 ATS on the road vs home teams above .600. With Agbaji, Wilson and McCormack finally establishing a nice rhythm offensively, we'll grab the points with the better team and coach. |
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01-30-21 | Texas Tech -3.5 v. LSU | 76-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Texas Tech/LSU 2:00: At first glance, LSU getting 3' at home seems like the play; however, a closer look reveals a disturbing 0-5 ATS mark at home vs teams above .500 on the road. And the home blowout vs Alabama revealed lots of weaknesses, especially on the defensive end. Texas Tech is surely no offensive juggernaut but will smother you on the defensive end. LSU has shooters and can score, no doubt; however, poor defensively; consequently, the Red Raiders will finally get some decent looks at the basket after taking on #2 Baylor and the frenetic defense at West Virginia. Tech delivers the goods here. |
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01-30-21 | Texas A&M -1 v. Kansas State | 68-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Texas A&M/Kansas State Noon: Both struggling teams in the bottom tier of the Big 12; however, at a competitive standpoint, Aggies still hustling, playing defense, diving for loose ball and attacking boards. On the other hand, K State, shy of talent, trying less effectively as exhibited by their conference play. They've won one game in the conference against hapless Iowa State and have been blown out in 5 of their last 6 including a 107-59 burial. And that was playing with revenge from their December blowout loss! If they're not motivated there, than got to question competitiveness. Buzz Williams' bunch does sport a 5-1 ATS mark on the road vs a home team with a home win % less than .400. We'll grab the Aggies here. |
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01-28-21 | Belmont -5 v. Austin Peay | 81-76 | Push | 0 | 20 h 2 m | Show | |
Belmont/Austin Peay 8:30: Belmont has covered 5 of the last 6 in this series. The one they didn't cover occurred January 25th of last year - an 86-78 outright at the Winfield Dunn Center in Tennessee. We'll look for the Bruins to be more focused this time around; after all, they've covered 9 of their last 10 on the road and that loss sits in the back of their minds. Belmont is equipped with a talented team led by 6'11" Nick Muszynski (15.4 PPG/5.4 RPG), perimeter threat Luke Smith, and all out hustle guy G Grayson Murphy. Austin Peay has a the ever dangerous Terry Taylor but not consistent surrounding help. Governors' defense suspect - allowing 48% from the floor (325th); consequently, that doesn't bode well vs the 15th scoring team in nation averaging 83.2 PPG. And the Bruins are pretty sound defensively. Don't see Austin Peay matching points here. |
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01-27-21 | Thunder +7.5 v. Suns | 102-97 | Win | 100 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
01-26-21 | Tulsa +1 v. Temple | 67-76 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
Tulsa/Temple 1:00: Offensively challenged Temple struggling to manufacture points (62.7 PPG) lingering at 329th in the nation; as a matter of fact, their leading scorer Damian Dunn does lead the team at 14.6 PPG but shooting just 33.3% from the field. As for Tulsa, not an offensive juggernaut by no means but Rachal (14.8 PPG) has a decent supporting cast. And Tulsa excels on the defensive end where they allow just 62.8 PPG on just 37.8% from the floor. Temple's defense not nearly as good and are yielding on the perimeter at 36.5%. Temple's Coach McKie is no Fran Dunphy who had Temple rolling. McKie struggling in his second year and 0-2 SU/ATS in this series. Tulsa should get back in the win column after taking it on the chin walking into same season revenge last Wednesday. They've had extra prep to stew over it and should hand the Owls another conference loss. |
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01-25-21 | Texas Tech +2.5 v. West Virginia | 87-88 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
Texas Tech/West Virginia 9:00: Texas Tech has gotten their Top 5 defense rolling and it's paying off in dividends. McClung has averaged 20.2 PPG this month. And the Red Raiders have won all three of their road conference games (3-0 SU/2-1 ATS). Meanwhile, WV had Covid19 issues and lost their big man - 6'9" Tshiebwe and have to adjust to a four guard lineup around 6'10" Derek Culver. Texas Tech had a bit of a layoff and its usually a good thing under Big 12 Coach of the Year - Chris Beard. We'll grab the points with Tech. |
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01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -3 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
Bills/Chiefs 6:40: Bills have been one of the great spread winning teams (12-6 ATS) covering 9 of their last 10 games. I caught them in their spread loss to the Colts on January 9th and I should catch them here. Bills didn't catch a break with linesmakers when Mahomes was cleared from concussion protocol; after all, this line stayed pretty hard at -3 with him in question and solidified on the announcement he was a go. And even with Edwards-Helaire upgraded as a go, line still stayed solid, considering Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran roughshod over the Bills run-stop-unit for 161 yards in the first game. The comfort level on the Bills among bettors is high as they anticipate another payday; on the other hand, Chiefs not getting any love for they've burnt money throughout the season for bettors including their 2-8 ATS slide over last 10 games. With no line adjustment, I'll lay a FG here with KC; after all, Buffalo still struggles with covering TEs and Kelce is arguably the best in game now. Bills' secondary coverage had its share of holes last week but was bailed out by poor decisions by Lamar Jackson and his backup. Sure, Chiefs' defense has its yielding moments but has playmakers - Sorensen and Mathieu in; moreover, CB Breeland is cleared (concussion) and a go; furthermore, linemen Clark and Chris Jones usually step up for DC Spagnuolo in these kind of games. Bottom line, Mahomes has too many weapons with Hill, Kelce, Hardman and adding Edwards-Helaire to the mix. Furthermore, RB Darrel Williams showed he can move the football behind the dominant KC offensive line. Value comes back to the Chiefs today as they clear the low number. |
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01-24-21 | Notre Dame v. Miami-FL -2 | 73-59 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers -3 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -123 | 86 h 16 m | Show |
 Bucs/Packers 3:05: Got this one in early in the week with Packers -3. Line moved to -3' to 4 on news Antonio Brown would be out. Will still stay on the Packers here. Run game working very well with Aaron Jones as they gutted a very good LA Rams' defense last week. If Aaron Jones is able to get cranking today, and I believe he will, Buc's defense won't be able to sit back in zone a majority of the time like they did earlier in the year vs Rodgers. Rodgers and company should make the adjustments on their home turf. TB has been fortunate to avoid frigid temperatures this season but will see them Sunday. Sure, Brady and Gronk won't be affected as much but rest of fair weathered team should stiffen up a bit - similar to the Rams last week - just enough for acclimated Packers to gain a step on them. Defensively, Packers defense much better than what it was October 18th. Preston and Za'Darius Smith are in great form up front and a healthy Kenny Clark adds a more formidable pass rush this time around. From a defensive perspective, Packers should attack the right side where TB is most vulnerable. And with TB's AB out, GB's top corner - Alexander - should lock up on Mike Evans. And Packers' defense will need to adjust to Gronk - who had pretty big game on the 18th. With the addition of Tramon Williams (cut from Baltimore last week), he can add depth to Packers' secondary; after all, he had two stints with the Packers (most recently 2018-19) and knows the system. We'll look for GB to push the right buttons today on their home turf and effectively get to Brady. Packers the call. |
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01-23-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State +9 | 81-66 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
Baylor/Oklahoma State 2:00: When you're at the top, everyone wants a piece of you. And you most likely will get the best effort from the dog. Today, #2 Baylor steps foot in a strong venue -Gallagher-Iba Arena. Okie State has a talented team with future #1 NBA draft choice Cade Cunningham who is a matchup nightmare at the point. He has a good support from his mates including Likekele (12 PPG/7.8 RPG). Sure, Baylor is a beast and the legitimate #2 in the nation; however, Okie State has taken on the best of the Big 12 and fared well including winning outright at Texas Tech, covering easily at Texas and beating Kansas on this floor. The Cowboys have not lost a game this season by more than 3 points. A bit better coaching and they could easily be undefeated with the talent they have. Today, despite the 10 day layoff, we'll look for them to be on their game and give Baylor a run for the money. |
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01-23-21 | Kansas v. Oklahoma +1 | 68-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Kansas/Oklahoma Noon: At first glance, Kansas seems to be the play; after all, Bill Self is a atop the coaching universe with an astounding 82% winning ledger since 2003. And he's an amazing 11-1 ATS on the road in his his last 12 vs teams above .500 at home. But hold everything. Kansas already beat Oklahoma January 9th 63-59 at home. They did so while Oklahoma was without both of their starting forwards Manek and Jalen Hill (Covid19 protocol). Both are back today in a revenge mode. Kansas early season star - Jalen Wilson struggling now (4 of 14 from floor) and won't find great looks against a pretty good Lon Kruger defense. Sure, Self had only two 3 game losing streaks in 2005 and 2013. And guess which team extended it to 3 on both accounts? Oklahoma the call. |
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01-23-21 | Virginia Tech +1.5 v. Syracuse | 60-78 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech/Syracuse Noon: Lots of inconsistencies with Syracuse. They're on one day and off another. They're 1-4 ATS in their last 5 tilts. They're coming off a thrashing of Miami, perhaps their best game of the year. It takes a while for Boheim's zone defense to get in rhythm and they sure suffocated the Hurricanes January 19th. However, bright Hokies' HC Mike Young had a few extra prep days (BC game postponed Wed) to work on dismantling the zone. He's got a big man in Aluma to give the Orange trouble. And the Orange have had trouble with long bodies this year (NC). And Young has some talented scorers in Radford and Cone to aid Aluma. Moreover, the Hokies play defense allowing just 64.7 PPG. Hokies coming off wins vs ND, Duke and WF, we'll look for them to keep rolling. |
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01-23-21 | Auburn +3 v. South Carolina | Top | 109-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Auburn/South Carolina Noon: In this series, Auburn's covered the last 2 and won 3 of the last 4 SU. Ever since Auburn's Sharife Cooper was cleared to play - January 9th, the Tigers have been rolling. They've covered 3 straight and Cooper has 4 teammates who score double-digits to count on. Knock on Auburn is their defense; however, they cover the perimeter well (29.9%) and can condense down near the paint facing an offensively challenged South Carolina team struggling to find an offensive identity. SC 1-4 ATS on Saturday and on a 1-4 ATS slide. We'll grab the points with Pearl and his surging Tigers. |
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01-22-21 | Michigan -3 v. Purdue | 70-53 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
Michigan/Purdue 7:00: Michigan got out of the gate strong with 11 straight wins before getting spanked at Minnesota on January 16th. They responded well, however, with a season sweep of Maryland. We'll look for the Wolves to stay focused here against the heating up Boilermakers which rattled off four impressive SU/ATS wins. Wolves are dominant inside with Dickinson and good perimeter play with Mike Smith and Livers. Purdue does have a solid big man in Trevion Williams but the Wolverines' defense tightens down low, allowing just 37.9% from the floor (12th in nation) and Purdue doesn't have the perimeter game to match Michigan. With Michigan 7-0-1 ATS in this series, we'll stay with Michigan. |
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01-21-21 | St. Mary's -2.5 v. Loyola Marymount | 65-61 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
01-20-21 | Spurs +1.5 v. Warriors | 99-121 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 7 m | Show | |
01-20-21 | Auburn +6 v. Arkansas | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
01-20-21 | Clemson +1.5 v. Georgia Tech | 65-83 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 34 m | Show | |
01-19-21 | Alabama v. LSU +1 | 105-75 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow...line flipped to underdog and we'll take it! |
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01-19-21 | Seton Hall +9 v. Villanova | 74-76 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
01-18-21 | Kansas +9 v. Baylor | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
Kansas/Baylor 9:00: Kansas struggled at Oklahoma State getting into rhythm but after postponement of Saturday's game vs Iowa State (Covid19), the Jayhawks had time to smooth out their game. Meanwhile, #2 ranked Baylor continues to roll coming off an impressive win at Texas Tech on the 16th. Their length and depth has given teams fits this season; however, Kansas' McCormack and Wilson able to hold their own down low. Need Agbaji to get it going from the perimeter and we'll bet on it. Jayhawks a sweet 11-1 ATS on the road vs a team with a home winning % greater than .600. The road team in this series is 23-8-1 ATS while the dog has covered 7 of the last 9. We'll never underestimate a Bill Self coached team off a loss especially getting this quantity of points. Kansas has covered 3 of the last 4 in this season and, with the additional prep, has the edge. |
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01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | 30-20 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
Bucs/Saints 6:40: Bucs looking for double-same- season-revenge including an embarrassing blowout defeat November 8th. Bucs have improved offensively since then as Brady has gotten in rhythm with his receivers including vertical threat Antonio Brown. However, run game still a concern ranking in the bottom of the league. And best RB Jones II still in recovery mode but should play. Saints control one of the best run stop units in the league and have a ball hawking secondary. And because of the lack of run game TB has, Saints' aggressive frontline can pin ears back and attack up field as they did so well on November 8th. Brady is great but still needs a run game to aid in an effective play action game. TB's offensive line is not as good as New Orleans' defensive front. Defensively, DC Bowles very aggressive in his defensive scheme and falls into the hands of savvy veteran Brees. His receiving corps is even healthier than it was in November as Tre'Quan Smith has been activated for this one. The weapons for New Orleans are plentiful including matchup nightmares Kamara and Michael Thomas. Technically, Sean Payton 16-2 ATS off double-digit ATS win vs opponent off double-digit ATS win. Moreover, he's 8-1 ATS as a home favorite off back to back SU wins vs greater than .500 opponent with revenge. Saints the call. |
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01-17-21 | Browns +10 v. Chiefs | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
Browns/Chiefs 3:05: Browns have a fighting chance here as they get back a few more important cogs on both sides of the ball. Offensively, All-Pro G Bitonio is back; defensively, Ward and Kevin Johnson are back in the secondary. Bitonio will help aid the powerful ground game that is so important this time of year. And KC run-stop-unit has been in the bottom tier for most of the year allowing 122 YPG. Mayfield has been strong in play action when the run game has been cooking and he's got a pretty healthy receiving corps (Landry, Peoples-Jones, Higgins, TE Hooper, RB Hunt, RB Chubb). Moreover, KC Red Zone defense allowed opponents to score TDs 77% of the time - bottom tier of NFL. Browns' Red Zone offense 3rd in the league reaching pay dirt 74% of the time. Defensively, Cleveland's Ward and Johnson can aid in playing a Cover 2 shell with man underneath. Kelsey is most important to limit for Browns have been 28th in the NFL vs TEs and he deserves big attention. Browns' will need to generate pass rush from Garrett, Richardson to aid in corralling Mahomes. Mahomes has had 20 days off since last snap. We'll hope for the rust. Bottom line, KC's last 7 wins were by one score or less. They've failed to cover in their last 4 home games, and Browns have momentum and confidence with an effective run game. Browns the call. |
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01-16-21 | Ravens v. Bills -2.5 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show | |
Ravens/Bills 8:15: Faded the Bills last week and delivered with the Colts; tonight, jumping on the Bills; on the other hand, had the Ravens last week but will fade them here. Sure, Baltimore took care of the Bills last season roughing up QB Josh Allen in the process. It was a learning year for Josh Allen completing just 58.8% of his passes; this season, however, a bolstered offensive line with good blitz pick up and the NFL's leading receiver in yardage - Stefon Diggs - helped change all that as Allen completed 69.2% of his passes with 37 TD passes and 421 yards rushing. Moreover, when blitzed, Josh Allen has thrown an NFL high 19 TD passes this season. Blitz happy Baltimore could be in for a challenging night. In addition, cold and possible snow won't help fleet footed Lamar Jackson. Buffalo defense under DC Leslie Frazier, improved as the season progressed. We'll grab the Bills here. |
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01-16-21 | Rams +7 v. Packers | 18-32 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 36 m | Show | |
Rams/Packers 4:35: Weather won't be extreme with 34 degree temperature and near 10 MPH winds. Rams possess a tough bunch who should be able to acclimate. Rams' defense #1 in the NFL for good reason. An excellent secondary equipped with guys who can get after the QB without blitzing; consequently, CB Ramsey can man up on Davonte Adams as DC Brandon Staley can implement a variety of blitzes. And love how the Rams' defensive front maintained lane integrity last west vs Russell Wilson. We'll look for Rams to get after QB Rodgers tonight. Offensively, Rams struggling a bit. Goff managed game alright last week and he's capable of doing it again. McVay should once again put him in a position to succeed; after all, the run game is cooking with Cam Akers and possession receiver Kupp (knee bruise) is good to go. Rams 4-0 ATS in January. McVay 8-1 ATS on the road vs opponent with rest. We'll take the TD. |
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01-16-21 | Missouri v. Texas A&M +4.5 | 68-52 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-14-21 | Warriors +5 v. Nuggets | 104-114 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-14-21 | Purdue +4 v. Indiana | 81-69 | Win | 100 | 1 h 48 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-13-21 | Texas Tech +2 v. Texas | 79-77 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
01-13-21 | Lakers v. Thunder +8 | 128-99 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
Lakers/Thunder 8:05: Thunder overdue to break their 0-4 mark on 0 rest. They're coming off a loss at home last night to San Antonio but sit at 5-2 ATS as a home dog. They'll be without Horford tonight but have some quality depth (Roby) to make up the difference and be competitive. Gilgeous-Alexander and George Hill give them a shooters chance to stay in this one. As of now AD is questionable with a toe injury and LeBron may opt to sit or limit minutes. We'll look for the Thunder to steal one here. OKC 4-1 ATS the last 5 in this series. |
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01-13-21 | Tulsa +3.5 v. Wichita State | 53-72 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
Tulsa/Wichita State 7:00: Revenge game for Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane lost at home to the Shockers 69-65 on December 15th. Since then, Tulsa has gone on a 6-0 SU / 5-0 ATS. HC Haith usually has his team playing killer defense this time of year and they're in mid-season form. Tulsa is ranked 14th in the nation defensively allowing just 60.2 PPG. They're 3-0 ATS on the road and dangerous. Wichita State is definitely not the defensive team this year that they were in the Greg Marshall days. New HC Isaac Brown has them playing hard but hitting just 40.8% from the floor and not a 3 point threat. We'll grab the points with the Golden Hurricane. |
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01-12-21 | Kansas -3.5 v. Oklahoma State | 70-75 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 56 m | Show | |
Kansas/Oklahoma State 8:00: Cowboys coming off a satisfying win at Kansas State but should run into trouble here. Oklahoma State finding ways to lose at home as exhibited against TCU and West Virginia - games they should have closed out. Bill Self eats these teams up. His Jayhawks are 12-3 ATS on the road and 11-1 ATS against a team with a winning home record. Kansas 4-1 ATS the last 5 in this series and we'll roll with the Jayhawks. |
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01-12-21 | Duke -1 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 67-74 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
Duke/Virginia Tech 7:00: Now that Coach K is back on the bench, Duke playing with energy and emotion. You can tell because their defense has picked up. They've had double digit steals over last two games and winning battle on the boards. F Hurt is stepping up his game and when he scores in double-digits, Duke is 18-5 SU. Sure, Duke has been overvalued most of the year but value coming back to the Blue Devils. Duke the call. |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State +9 v. Alabama | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
Ohio State/Alabama 8:00: Was all over Ohio State against Clemson and I'm staying on them here. Despite the Covid19 issues, the Buckeyes overwhelmed a really good Clemson team. OSU's underrated defensive line held more than its own against a very good Tigers' offensive line. Sure, Alabama's line is arguably the best but All-American C Landon Dickerson (leg) is a big loss. OSU's front 7 generated a nice pass rush against Clemson and will be challenged to do the same vs the Alabama machine. Question is: Can the Buckeye's defensive backs contain Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, RB Najee Harris and possibly the return of Jaylen Waddle (ankle). Don't think Waddle will play much, limited or at all, but Mac Jones surely plays pitch and catch routinely with receivers throughout 2020. Tonight, they face a pretty good Buckeyes' secondary with Ransom, All-American C Shaun Wade and Sevyn Banks. And OSU is in good hands with FS Josh Proctor in center field. We'll look for them to pick their shots zoning Metchie and Bolden while bracketing DeVonta Smith. As for the Alabama defense, they've been vulnerable to mobile QBs and remember, Ole Miss put 647 yards on this defense. And Florida thrashed their secondary as well. Look for OSU to feed red hot RB Sermon while QB Justin Fields (ribs) will work Alabama's freshmen DBs Moore and Branch with OSU's good receivers led by Chris Olave. Bottom line, OSU capable of trading points with Alabama and will need to win turnover battle and excel on special teams. OSU a perfect 10-0 ATS as dogs of 3 or more points. Buckeyes the call. |
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01-10-21 | Browns +6 v. Steelers | 48-37 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show | |
Browns/Steelers 8:15: Steelers get back some healthy bodies including LB Spillane; however, question his game shape since he hasn't taken the field since December 7th. Steelers' defense not what it was early in the season. And that may be a byproduct of being on the field too much to compensate for a sputtering offense. This is a rare year when the Steelers are not a strong run team; as a matter of fact, the Steelers are in the bottom of the NFL in run production with a measly 84 YPG; consequently, that forces QB Roethlisberger to air it out way too much. Steelers have struggled on 3rd down this season and that won't bode well against a pretty good Browns' pass rush led by Miles Garrett. Offensively, Cleveland won't have HC Stefanski (Covid) on the sidelines. Shouldn't be a problem as OC Alex Van Pelt, who closely worked with Baker Mayfield all season, is up for the task; after all, it starts with the top running duo in the NFL in Chubb and Hunt. Mayfield has been highly effective working play action off the running game this season because of the strong run game. Sure, G Bitonio won't be there but Cleveland OK with depth on O-line. Steelers 2-6-1 ATS last 9 playoff games and 1-3-1 ATS last 5 as playoff chalk. We'll look for the Browns to stick around here. |
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01-10-21 | Ravens -3 v. Titans | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
Ravens/Titans 1:05: Big knock on Lamar Jackson is that he can't win in the playoffs. That chatter should end here. Ravens got it together down the stretch rattling off 6 straight covers following OT loss at home vs Tennessee. The road team has covered the last 3 in this series and we'll look for that scenario to unfold today. Tennessee defense has been shaky virtually all season - allowing nearly 400 YPG. We'll look for Jackson and J.K. Dobbins to get the run game going to open up the play action pass now that TE Andrews, Marquise Brown and Boykin are on the same page now. Tennessee secondary has been torched. Titans' inability to generate a pass rush has left the secondary vulnerable. And the return of Adoree Jackson in Week 15 didn't help as the Titans allowed 34.3 PPG from then on. Ravens 6-0 ATS on the playoff road and 8-3-1 ATS in January. Ravens' defense should outscore the Titans and deliver. |
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01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks -3 | 30-20 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
Rams/Seahawks 4:40pm: Like how Seattle's defense got it together late in the year as health, development and discipline came into play. Carlos Dunlap's addition helped significantly with a pass rush, development of WLB Brooks, health of All Pro's MLB Wagner and the versatility of All Pro S Jamal Adams (9' sacks) helped restore order to the start of, perhaps, Legion of Boom II. Not sure who's going to start at QB for Rams but my guess will be Wolford. I backed him and the Rams last week in their easy win and cover over Arizona, but will fade him here. Pete Carroll will have a great defensive game plan to give him trouble. Offensively, Seahawks have their work cut out for them against the NFL's top defense. However, All-Pro QB Wilson will find a way to get the ball to his very good receiving corps - All Pro - Metcalf, Lockett, Moore and quality TE corps and deep backfield. The run game should cook with Carson, Hyde, added from practice squad - Alex Collins and Penny (knee). Seattle the call. |
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01-09-21 | Colts +7 v. Bills | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
Colts/Bills 1:05: Bills look unstoppable reeling off 8 straight covers in impressive fashion; however, Colts not intimidated and bring a balanced team to Buffalo. Sure, Josh Allen is tearing up defenses with Diggs, Beasley and McKenzie; however, Colts have a strong front four pass rush with Buckner (ankle), Houston and Autry and a ball hawking secondary with versatile All Pro LB Leonard and All Pro FS Odum that can give Allen problems. Offensively, RB Jonathon Taylor has gotten in a groove behind a solid offensive line led by All-Pro Quenton Nelson. And veteran QB Phillip Rivers has seen just about every defense imaginable in his glorious career. A healthy vertical threat in T.Y. Hilton, and possession receivers Pascal and Pittman with versatile back Hines out of the backfield give the Colts a fighting chance here. Take the TD |
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01-08-21 | Purdue v. Michigan State -4 | 55-54 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
Purdue/Michigan State 7:00: This series has favored the home team (4-0-1 ATS). Sure, Michigan State lost 7 straight ATS up until Tuesday when they got it together vs Rutgers with a 68-45 blasting. We'll look for that momentum to carry over here. Although Michigan State has its share of turnover problems, Purdue is even worse (averaging 1.8 more than opponents). And the Boilermakers are anything but their namesake offensively averaging just 71.6 PPG (201 nationally). Purdue 0-7-2 ATS vs teams above .600. We'll lay a few buckets with Aaron Henry and the Spartans. |
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01-07-21 | Illinois v. Northwestern +7.5 | 81-56 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
Analysis to come... |
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01-06-21 | St. Joe's v. St Bonaventure -12 | 57-83 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show | |
St. Joe's/St. Bonaventure 4:00: Hawks 0-7 SU in Billy Lange's first year at the helm but have taken on a pretty rough schedule. They've been competitive taking Auburn and URI to OT. However, they're facing basically the same team they faced last year 89-73; as a matter of fact, Bonnies have won and covered last 4 in this series with an average margin of victory of 18 points. Hawks poor defensively at the bottom tier in the nation (341st) allowing 89.4 PPG. Offensively, St. Joe's has very little perimeter game and I don't see it heating up at the Reilly Center in NY. Bonnies the call. |
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01-06-21 | Tulsa +1 v. South Florida | 61-51 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
Tulsa/USF 4:00: Tulsa is a streaky team when they get rolling under Haith. They have a very good defense, strong backcourt in Joiner and Rachal, and now have recently developed an inside presence with Idowu. Tulsa has won 9 straight in this series and simply the better team. |
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01-05-21 | Missouri v. Mississippi State +2.5 | 63-78 | Win | 102 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
Missouri/Mississippi State 9:00: #13 ranked Missouri, picked to be a bottom feeder in their conference this season, overachieving. Coming off a big win at Arkansas on Saturday, they now have to go into a tough venue at Humphrey Coliseum vs Mississippi State. Bulldogs are coming off a double overtime loss at home vs Kentucky Saturday. Look for veteran HC Howland to clean up the Bulldogs' turnovers, which cost them late in the game. Iverson Molinar and Stewart Jr. should help lead the way. Bulldogs have covered nine straight in this series and we'll take the points here. |
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01-03-21 | Washington Football Team -3.5 v. Eagles | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
Washington/Philadelphia 8:20: Washington wins and they're in. Football Team made a dramatic opening day come from behind win to start the Eagles downward spiral and they never fully recovered. Eagles' DC Swartz won't be back next year and he has limited arsenal to work with tonight with linemen Cox and Barnett out. His secondary has struggled all year. Washington will have Alex Smith (calf) ready and he's got a good supporting cast to deliver the goods. Defensively, is where Washington accelerates. We'll look for them to be on their game. Washington 6-0 ATS as favorites of less than 6 points off back-to-back losses vs opponent with revenge. Washington delivers. |
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01-03-21 | Chargers -4.5 v. Chiefs | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
Chargers/Chiefs 4:25: Chargers with a slight edge going into this one. Chiefs, locked in #1 seeding, resting a good portion of their starters including Mahomes, Hill, Bell, Watkins and, perhaps, Kelce. That leaves veteran journeyman QB Chad Henne at the helm without much weaponry. Chargers won't have top pass rusher Bosa (concussion) and S Jenkins, but enough of their defensive nucleus to limit the Chiefs' offense; after all, they played a fully loaded KC team to OT September 20th. With the revenge motive and on a 3-0 SU/ATS win streak, we'll ride the momentum of the Chargers. |
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01-03-21 | Cardinals v. Rams +3 | 7-18 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
Cardinals/Rams 4:25: Today, Arizona must win or go home for playoffs. Rams need to win or hope for a loss by the Bears. Rams, of course, want to create their own destiny and will fight with who they have. They will be without QB Goff (thumb), leading receiver Kupp (Covid19 list), RB Henderson (ankle). John Wolford makes his first start in the NFL and it obviously will be a pressure cooker environment for the undrafted free agent. Wolford is a gamer. He can air it out and is mobile - as he displayed at Wake Forest. Realize Arizona will throw multiple blitz schemes, mixed coverages, etc to throw him off but he's bright and confident going in. McVay will put him in positions to have success. He should have Cam Akers back and Malcolm Brown (shoulder) also to help take the pressure off him. Moreover, Rams' defense has been awesome virtually all season and it's good to note LB Leonard Floyd (abdominal pain) is good to go. Arizona repeatedly underachieves in moments like these under Kingsbury. QB Murray (knee) is good to go but not 100%. Rams' defense gave him a hard time December 6th and remain a strong force. Rams the call. |
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01-03-21 | Cowboys v. Giants +2 | Top | 19-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Cowboys/Giants 1:00: Winner here gets to sweat it out later tonight hoping the Eagles pull the upset of Washington. If Washington loses, one of these teams, providing it's not a tie, goes into the playoffs. We'll look for the vengeful Giants to deliver. They gave Dallas all they could handle October 11th in a 37-34 loss. Today, Giants have what it takes to beat Dallas. Former Cowboys' HC and current Giants' OC Garrett now back on the sidelines (Covid19 cleared) should get his revenge. He's got a pretty good run game in heavy sets and Daniel Jones should be prepared. Of course, he's limited in mobility (hamstring) but making inroads from the pocket. Defensively, Giants much better and get back OLB Fackrell who is a difference maker. Cowboys did go on a 3-0 run but wins over Cincinnati, Covid19 decimated SF and Philadelphia are not a ringing endorsement. Over the same time frame, Giants has rough sledding against playoff caliber teams Arizona, Cleveland and Baltimore. Giants are on an 0-7 SU skid to Dallas and should upset them today. |
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01-02-21 | Oregon +5 v. Iowa State | 17-34 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
Oregon/Iowa State 4:00: At first glance, Iowa State was the call for me here; after all, I like HC Matt Campbell and his Cyclones gave me some solid wins this year; however, his bowl resume doesn't cut it. He lost bowls in 3 of his last 4 seasons. Sure, QB Purdy and the nations' leading rusher Breece Hall and solid while the Cyclones' defense fundamentally sound. But Oregon is not easy to prep for. HC Cristobal is gradually building the Ducks into a major contender again. He's won 2 straight bowls, off a PAC 12 Championship win and winning the recruiting war (12th ranked class). Ducks are loaded with speed and QB Tyler Shough should look to work a vulnerable Iowa State secondary that has given up too many explosive plays. On the other hand, defensively, Ducks are led by big time DE Thibodeaux who is a nightmare off the edge. Oregon also has a lockdown corner in Mykael Wright who can take away the Cyclones' top receiver. Ducks 5-0 ATS run vs teams above .500. Take the points. |
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01-02-21 | Ole Miss v. Indiana -9.5 | 26-20 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Ole Miss/Indiana 12:30: Ole Miss had one of the most explosive offenses in the nation and that is always a concern as a go against when laying near double digits. What cost them a winning ledger this year is their defense which gave up a generous 536 YPG! Today, Kiffin will be handcuffed with more concerns: his top two receivers opted out for NFL prep; in addition, another good one - Sanders succumbed to injury in the final game of the season. Moreover, Covid19 issues popped up to sideline more players. On the other hand, Indiana is feeling pretty good about bowling. They landed #7 in the AP rankings and can win their first bowl in 29 years! Covered last year vs Tennessee and Tom Allen raised the bar this year and the team responded. Indiana is a perfect 7-0 ATS / 6-1 SU including a strong performance vs my choice yesterday - Ohio State! Today, of course, they won't have QB Penix Jr. but backup Tuttle was solid in his first start in a win over Wisconsin. Indiana relies much on a ball hawking secondary in a rock solid opportunistic defense which created 17 turnovers and creates good field position for its offense. We'll lay the wood.  |
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01-01-21 | Ohio State +7.5 v. Clemson | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
Ohio State/Clemson 8:00: Buckeyes had a banner of last year's 29-23 loss to Clemson posted in their weight room immediately after that loss. To say that they are determined to win this one is an understatement. Then Clemson HC Swinney's comments on the argument that OSU doesn't belong in this game added fuel to the fire. OSU came off a sluggish performance against Northwestern in the Big 10 Championship; however, they had 22 players out for that one and managed to find a way to get it done. That's a testament to solid depth, coaching and discipline. Tonight, a good chance the Buckeyes will be at near full strength. And the Buckeye's offensive line proved how durable they are opening holes for Master Teague's backup Trey Sermon who grinded out a record 331 yards. In last year's game, remember that Clemson was down 16-0 25 minutes into that game. Trevor Lawrence struggled mightily before a questionable roughing the passer call opened the door for them. With QB Fields and WR Olave good to go, Ohio State is a dangerous dog; as a matter of fact, OSU getting more than 3 points is 9-0 ATS. We''ll take the points. |
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01-01-21 | Notre Dame +20.5 v. Alabama | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
Notre Dame/Alabama 4:00: I realize Alabama is an offensive machine that no team has stopped or, for that matter, contained for four quarters. And Notre Dame has failed on the big stage much too often; as a matter of fact, 0-6 in BCS New Year's Bowl Games since '98 with an average margin of defeat by two touchdowns. And the 42-14 demolition back on January 7, 2013 always comes to mind. And just when you think ND has a legitimate contending team assembled, they get waxed 34-10 by Clemson on December 19th. Oddsmakers have read the script and laid the line. I think it's a bit inflated and here's why: Notre Dame arguably has their best offensive line in years. Didn't do well against a healthy full force Clemson defense on the 19th but can redeem themselves against an Alabama defense that has some defensive weaknesses in its secondary. Ian Book needs a big game when the lights are shining brightest and he should rise to the occasion; after all, he has three AP All-Americans - LG Banks (1st team), T Eichenberg (2nd team), RG Kraemer (3rd team) protecting him and opening holes for 1000+ yard rusher Kyren Williams. And ND has 3 tight ends including Brock Wright and "Baby Gronk" Mayer that can be utilized in condensed formations to pave the way for Williams or open the play action (Javon McKinley) or RPO game. Remember, Alabama's defense is yielding as exhibited on the 19th vs Florida. Defensively, ND is solid but will have its hands full with RB Harris, QB Mac Jones and Heisman Trophy favorite DeVonta Smith. And the offensive line of Alabama is brutal on defenses. There is hope, however, as their All-American center Landon Dickerson (leg) is out! That's a big loss and ND should capitalize. We'll look for ND to hang around in this one. |
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01-01-21 | Auburn v. Northwestern -3.5 | 19-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Auburn/Northwestern 1:00: Auburn comes into this one without the greatest of motivation. Their head coach - Malzahn was fired mid December - and difficult to pinpoint if Auburn is "all in" for this game. Players and coaches wondering about their future after Boise State's Harsin was hired. Auburn's interim HC Kevin Steele (DC) is disappointed he didn't get the HC job. Northwestern, on the other hand, eager to get back on winning track and finish a strong year after giving Ohio State a run for the money in the Big 10 Championship. Northwestern has an awesome defense under longtime DC Hankwitz who is retiring after this game. Wildcats will play hard for him and we'll lay the points. |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati +8.5 v. Georgia | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
Cincinnati/Georgia Noon: At first glance, SEC powerhouse with #1 recruiting class taking on Group of 5 school seems like an easy call; however, Fickell, in his fourth year, has built the Bearcats into a legitimate contender notching bowl wins the last two seasons and coming into this one with a perfect 9-0 record. Fickell has managed to stockpile solid recruiting classes and has assembled an opportunistic defense (15 INTs/4 fumble recoveries) with a Top 20 defense. The Bearcats have a legitimate QB in Desmond Ridder (AAC Offensive P.O.Y) who has a solid supporting cast. Georgia's defense has its flaws - especially in the red zone. And with LB Ojulari out, pass rush is limited. As for Georgia's offense, they found their rhythm when USC transfer QB JT Daniels got healthy. But Cincinnati defense has some dudes and they've made it difficult for offenses to score - allowing just 16 PPG. Bearcats determined to make a case they deserved to be in the CFP but got a #8 ranking. We'll look for them to be competitive here. |
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12-31-20 | Suns +4 v. Jazz | 106-95 | Win | 100 | 2 h 35 m | Show | |
12-31-20 | Michigan v. Maryland +2.5 | 84-73 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 35 m | Show | |
12-31-20 | West Virginia v. Army +7 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
West Virginia/Army 4:00: West Virginia was prepared to play Tennessee in this Liberty Bowl but Covid19 hit the Tennessee campus; consequently, Army gets their shot. The Black Knights are not an easy team to prepare for and WV has their work cut out for them. Army employs the traditional triple option and run it well. They won the Commander in Chief Trophy by virtue of knocking off Air Force Dec 19th to complete the armed forces season sweep (beat Navy earlier in season). This should be a grind it out game with heavy winds, rain in forecast in Memphis. Army is a statistically good defensive team in the top tier in yards and scoring allowed. WV is a solid defense too but has its deficiencies offensively and that should cost them the cover here. Army is 5-1 ATS vs the Big 12 and 6-2 ATS as a neutral side dog. Army the call. |
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12-31-20 | Ball State v. San Jose State -9 | 34-13 | Loss | -121 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
San Jose State/Ball State 2:00: These teams had breakout seasons but I'll settle for SJS here. The Spartans have a much better defense and can limit Ball State's solid run game that opens up the pass game for Drew Pitt and his top wideouts Hall and Tyler. Spartans possess a good defense that can get after the QB with 3.1 sacks per game led by Cade Hall. Offensively, Spartans are in good hands with QB Starkel. He's got a good supporting cast that can move the football. For the Cardinals, they're soft defensively and that will cost them. Their defense allows 442 YPG and a secondary that's been scorched more often than not. We'll look for the Spartans to deliver here. |
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12-31-20 | Mississippi State v. Tulsa -1 | 28-26 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
Mississippi State/Tulsa Noon: Under normal circumstances, Miss State would not be in a bowl but 2020 season has been anything but normal. Granted a bowl bid, Miss State looks to win today in hopes of building on recruits moving forward. They have good young talent already as Leach moved on from the older established veterans; for example, Leach going with Fr QB Will Rogers and has true freshman Jaden Walley as his top receiver in recent weeks. Unfortunately for Miss State, Tulsa plays good defense. A Top 25 defensive team that plays the pass well (allows only 194 YPG). Remember, they did an amazing job against the #1 offense at the time - UCF - Oct 26th in an upset win; moreover, held an explosive Oklahoma State team to just 16 points Sept. 19th. Tulsa, however, will not have Bronko Nagurski Award Winner - LB Zaven Collins who opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. Nevertheless, a solid supporting defensive cast can hold this defense together. And Miss State doesn't have a consistent run game that will scare this defense. On the other hand, redshirt senior QB Zach Smith has a run game to fall back on with RB Corey Taylor and company. Don't like the Tulsa penalties but we'll look for them to get it together after a very competitive last second loss to the Bearcats in the AAC Championship. Golden Hurricane the call.  |
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12-30-20 | Florida v. Oklahoma -4.5 | 20-55 | Win | 100 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
Florida/Oklahoma 8:00: What shaped to be a competitive game is now a shifting line to Oklahoma. Florida will be without it's top three receivers TE Pitts, WR Toney, WR Grimes - opting out to prep for NFL draft; in addition, WR Copeland (Covid19) out. That puts pressure on QB Trask who went from a Heisman contender to just mediocre with an Oklahoma defense that stepped up their game for a change this season. Don't see the Gators hanging here vs Rattler and the Sooners' offensive machine. Oklahoma the call. |
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12-30-20 | Wisconsin -9.5 v. Wake Forest | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Wisconsin/Wake Forest Noon: Wisconsin in another bowl and they usually deliver. 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS with HC Chryst leading the charge for the Badgers. Badgers once again keep same offensive philosophy: pound the football, eat clock and play great defense. Wisconsin run game not as potent as it has been in the past but good enough to move the football on the Demon Deacons' defense (107th nationally in yards allowed). WF will also be without their big time DE Carlos Basham who had 23 straight games with a TFL! He's preparing for the NFL draft. Offensively, WF can put points up - typical of a Clawson coached team. However, their top scoring RB Walker III opted out to prep for NFL draft. And besides, WF offense should spend limited time on the field; after all, Wisconsin is #1 in the nation in time of possession. Badgers sport the #1 defense in the nation in terms of yards allowed. They're 4-1 ATS vs the ACC. Badgers the call. |
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12-29-20 | Colorado v. Texas -7 | 23-55 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show | |
Colorado/Texas 9:00: Good work by Karl Dorrell in guiding Colorado to this bowl with a 4-1 mark; however, this is the first ranked team the Buffaloes will play on the season and I believe this is fair value (-7) with the Longhorns. Texas opened as 11 point favorites but a significant amount of players decided to opt out to prep for the NFL including five team captains. The lone captain - Sr QB Sam Ehlinger - is one that gives us that value; after all, he been a big game winner for HC Herman over the last three years including blowout win in last year's Alamo Bowl over Utah 38-10. Moreover, Tom Herman has won his last 4 bowl games including last 3 with Texas. Finally, Texas is equipped with Top 10 recruiting classes the last three years and has stockpiled enough elite 5* athletes to deliver vs an inferior team. Sure, Colorado has RB Broussard but limited in superstar arsenal outside of him. Texas the call. |
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12-29-20 | Oklahoma State -1 v. Miami-FL | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State/Mia-FL 5:30: Miami U has a history of struggling in December and they're continuing that trend under Diaz. The Hurricanes are coming off a blowout loss to North Carolina. And they're now a money burning 1-6 SU/ATS in bowl games after last year's 14-0 debacle vs LA Tech. Oklahoma State is no LA Tech. They're a veteran team with a deep backfield that despite being without Hubbard (declared for NFL draft), still racks up big yardage on the ground - a tribute to their offensive line strength. And QB Spencer Sanders is coming off torching a Baylor secondary in a 42-3 route. Oklahoma defense is also solid considering playing in a conference that prides itself on putting up video game offensive numbers. Miami U offense is good and has been consistent but not sold on their defense which was lit up vs North Carolina for 778 yards! Gundy is a solid 7-3 ATS in bowl games and we'll grab Oklahoma State. |
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12-27-20 | Rams v. Seahawks | Top | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Rams/Seahawks 4:25: Seahawks clinched a playoff birth with win over Washington last week; however, they remain hungry for their first division title since 2016 and want that all important home playoff game that's eluded them since January 2017. Rams, which clinched a playoff birth with the Cardinals losing yesterday, have given the Seahawks trouble since McVay took over as head coach. McVay controls a 5-2 SU edge over his rival Pete Carroll. But Carroll has straightened a few things out on the defensive end since these teams last played. Of course Carlos Dunlap has settled in to be a defensive line sack force. And a healthy S Jamal Adams (9.5 sacks) keeps Seattle in games with his versatility. Offensively, Seattle will have T Shell ready to go and G Simmons did a nice job filling in for Iupati. Seattle's run game still cooking with Carson and Hyde. And Penny, activated a few weeks ago, adds depth to the backfield that's winning the run game almost weekly. Rams will be without RB Cam Akers (ankle). A concern for McVay is his poor 0-6 ATS record on the road vs an opponent off back to back SU wins. Seattle looking to avenge their November 15th beating and we'll take them! |
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12-27-20 | Browns v. Jets +7 | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Browns/Jets 1:00: Jets were embarrassed last season at MetLife Stadium 23-3 by the Browns and that will be on their minds here. Of course, the Jets are coming off, perhaps, the biggest upset of the year over the Rams. Don't see a fall off here on draft status, etc. They should compete hard. Jets are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games and not as bad as their record indicates. They'll be able to be a bit more competitive as well on account that Cleveland will be without FOUR receivers, including Landry, Higgins, Peoples-Jones and Hodge; consequently, that leaves Mayfield having to pass to guys that were on the practice squad last week. Sure, they have the powerful run game to fall on but Jets should load the box and force Mayfield to go to guys he hasn't developed chemistry with. Sure, Cleveland one win away from first playoff birth since 2002. And it won't be easy to accomplish. Cleveland a mere 1-6 ATS as road chalk and got ourselves a play with Jets here. |
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12-27-20 | Bears -8 v. Jaguars | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Bears/Jaguars 1:00: Big incentive for Bears to deliver after Arizona fell to SF today. It opens the door for the Bears to take a step closer to the playoffs. Bears on a late season surge off two strong wins. They've found their run game after Nagy finally found the right offensive line combination. Bears offensive line busted loose David Montgomery for 100+ yards in 3 of the last 4 games. Today, they face a banged up Jacksonville defense with both starting corners (Jones and Henderson) out. Jacksonville defense allows an NFL worst 418.2 YPG and 30th vs the run allowing 146.5 YPG. Montgomery most likely is a top fantasy pick this week. In addition, Trubisky, who has a respectable 8/3 TD/INT ratio, should stay on track as his top receiver - Allen Robinson is a go. Jacksonville in line for #1 overall pick in draft, sports a 2-11 ATS mark as a non-conference dog of more than 3 points. We will tread lightly however, as Chicago has not been good as a favorite. Nevertheless, we'll ride the winning momentum with Chicago here.  |
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12-26-20 | Dolphins -3 v. Raiders | 26-25 | Loss | -102 | 19 h 51 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Raiders 8:15: Dolphins earning there stripes as a favorite and we'll roll with them. Miami now 11-3 ATS for the season and we still have value with them here; after all, they're winning the battle of attrition as they need two wins to secure a playoff birth and I don't think the Raiders can stop them. Marinelli took over as DC and like I indicated last week, not an upgrade. Chargers' Herbert lit up the secondary like a torch. Marinelli not adept at coverage and as it showed last week it will rear its ugly head tonight. Tua should establish his rhythm. Most likely, Raiders will emphasize stopping Breida, Gaskin and Ahmed. Perhaps they will with limited success but see the Dolphins grinding out a win and cover. Flores has this defense playing consistently well. On paper, Dolphins defense middle of the pack but strike gold in two key and most important areas: turnovers (26) and points allowed (18.4 PPG) - #1 in the NFL in both areas. And special teams a plus. Dolphins deliver. |
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12-26-20 | Liberty +7 v. Coastal Carolina | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
Liberty/Coastal Carolina 7:30: Two well coached FBS upstarts which overachieved this year. We'll give the edge to the Flames. Both teams are similar with explosive players, good run games, and solid field generals. Liberty has been off since November 27th while Coastal Carolina ended its season with a win over Troy Dec 12th. Advantage Chanticleers; however, Hugh Freeze has worked plenty of magic in his days roaming the sidelines while at Ole Miss and now Liberty. He'll find a way to stay in this one; after all, he's got a really good versatile QB in Malik Willis to deliver a game plan around. |
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