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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-11-22 | Miami-FL +6.5 v. Florida State | 64-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show | |
Miami-Fla/Florida State 8:00: Miami Florida stewing over lack of respect after Saturday's upset on the road over then #2 Duke. Larranaga finally has a solid team of shooters and a great facilitator in Charlie Moore. Meanwhile, Florida State handed Louisville its first ACC loss. Florida State going into this one knowing they've knocked off Miami-Florida seven straight times. Florida State 0-4 ATS off SU wins this year. I don't see Miami-Florida with a letdown for they're hungry to beat their intra-state rival after a long drought. Look for Final-4 Coach Larranaga to keep his boys focused. Canes 7-3 ATS on the road vs a home team with a winning % above .600. Miami U the call.  |
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01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
Georgia/Alabama 8:00: Kirby Smart assembled his best team yet and he's overdue to finally beat his mentor -Saban. In the SEC Championship, Alabama QB Bryce Young was able to set his feet and make amazing throws in tight windows of a step slow Georgia defense. Smart will surely make the needed adjustments with his amazing versatile athletes of Dean and Travon Walker while not tiring out mammoth DL Jordan Davis - like he was on December 4th. The good news for Georgia and a key loss for Alabama is 1000+ receiving yard WR John Meche III (out). He was a key part in that game (6 receptions for 97 yards and a TD) before his injury. Now the Bulldogs' secondary can focus their attention on Alabama superstar receiver Jameson Williams. The 'Dogs can either roll coverage to him, bracket him or double him leaving Bryce Young without a proven secondary downfield threat. On the offensive side of the ball, Bulldogs will establish heavy doses of RB Zamir White behind their dominant offensive line coupled with play action to superstar TE Brock Bowers - that no defense has found an answer for. QB Stetson Bennett has progressively gotten better after adversity and we'll look for his moment of glory to arrive as a solid game manager. Interesting stat is Georgia is a sweet 14-0-1 ATS as a favorite of less than 13 points with revenge. We'll look for Kirby Smart to finally get the best of Saban. |
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01-09-22 | Chargers v. Raiders +3 | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
Chargers/Raiders 8:20: Raiders have been through a lot this season but are finding ways to win down the stretch. That's quite unusual for a team that usually packs it in this time of year. Raiders are finding ways to overcome adversity while areas of their game continue to improve. The offensive line, which has been shuffled around all season, is starting to gel. Defensively, Gus Bradley's unit has given up 20 or less in 4 of the last 5 games. And Derek Carr keeps hanging in their to make plays down the stretch. Carr has extra incentive today. After the Chargers' 28-14 win on October 4th, their DE Bosa spouted off about Derek Carr, "Great dude, great player...but we know once you get pressure on him, he kind of shuts down." Carr remembers that and surely will do everything to atone for his underachieving performance that day. He should have TE Darren Waller (knee) available today. And RB Jacobs (ribs) should be good to go. After all, they know there is no tomorrow if they lose. Chargers are the trendy choice here but sport an 0-7 ATS mark as a division favorite off a double-digit SU win. Dog in this series is 18-7 ATS and we'll roll with the vengeful Raiders. |
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01-09-22 | Patriots -6 v. Dolphins | 24-33 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
Patriots/Dolphins 4:25: Dolphins beat the Patriots in Week 1 at New England 17-16. No coach is better in same season revenge than Bill Belichick. He's 18-4 ATS with revenge vs .400 or greater conference opponents; moreover, 15-2 ATS with division revenge off a non-division game. To narrow it down, he's 14-2 ATS in the final two weeks of the season with revenge of a division opponent. Patriots have won 8 of the last 9 at Miami and should deliver here; after all, Patriots can still win the AFC East with a win and if Buffalo loses to the Jets today. We'll look for the Patriots to keep it rolling here. |
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01-09-22 | Seahawks +5.5 v. Cardinals | 38-30 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Cardinals 4:25: Cardinals can still win the NFC West with a win and getting help from SF. The Seahawks are simply playing out the season. I won't count the Seahawks out in this one. Seattle, coming off a blowout win at home vs Detroit, determined to finish season strong. They do have a few defenders out, including LB Wagner, RDT Woods and SS Neal. Cardinals are not without their share of injuries either. Cards will be without LDE Phillips, RCB Wilson. And offensively, Cardinals thin at RB with Connor (heel) and Edmunds (ankle) limited in practice this week. Russell Wilson starting to get back in rhythm and the run game was cooking last week with Penny (170 yards). We'll look for Seattle to keep this competitive. Pete Carroll a sweet 12-4 ATS as a dog vs .500 or greater division opponent. Arizona just 3-4 SU at home including 0-4 SU slide there. Moreover, a money burning 9-24 ATS as a home favorite. Seattle the call. |
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01-09-22 | Titans -10 v. Texans | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Titans/Texans 1:00: Titans should be locked in here; after all, at stake is a first-round bye. Titans earlier in the year played down to their competition including dropping the first meeting in this series in Week 11 at home 22-13. In that game, the Titans out-yarded the Texans 420-190 but Tannehill threw 4 INTs! Now that the Titans' offensive line is much healthier and Julio Jones and A.J. Brown can be on the field at the same time, Titans should keep the offensive machine working. RB Foreman will get the nod again while Derrick Henry gets ready for playoffs. But no alarm, the mending Titans' offensive line paved the way against a pretty good run stop unit of Miami last week for 132 yards. Texans' run stop unit is worst in the NFL. On the flip side, there is no DeShawn Watson who scared the Titans' last year or even Tyrod Taylor who directed the win in Week 11. Davis Mills, who may be a decent QB down the line, will get the nod. He's struggling with a 32.2 QBR - 29th in the league; he doesn't have a run game (32nd in NFL) to help him out and the Titans' revamped defense is getting after the QB, ball hawking the secondary and stopping the run now. Titans 4-0 ATS after running for 150+ and they're 4-0 ATS after scoring more than 30+. Texans 1-4 ATS off SU loss of 14+. Titans the call. |
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01-08-22 | Kansas State v. West Virginia -7.5 | 68-71 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Kansas State/West Virginia 2:00: K State struggling with Covid off 2 straight losses and still not at full strength including their bench leader - Webber (out). Jermaine Henderson fills in vs an angry Bob Huggins who's coming off a loss to Texas on the first and then a postponement vs TCU. Fortunately for WV, they're back at full strength including go-to-guy Taz Sherman. WV strong on their home floor should deliver the goods and then some vs a shell team of K-State. |
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01-08-22 | Texas -3.5 v. Oklahoma State | 51-64 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Texas/Oklahoma State 2:00: Didn't take long for Chris Beard to steer Texas on to the winning road. Already 2-0 in conference play and like their chances here. Okie State, which is no longer equipped with Cade Cunningham (NBA), suffered their 4th home loss on Tuesday. Like the poise the Longhorns have in their backcourt with Carr and Ramey. They're operating at a +7 turnover margin and road savvy. Texas delivers. |
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01-08-22 | Virginia +6 v. North Carolina | 58-74 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Virginia/North Carolina 1:00: Virginia has owned North Carolina - winning and covering seven straight. I still find value in Virginia today. North Carolina's first year HC Hubert Davis has talent but won't have 6'11" Garcia (10 PPG) and versatile 6'9" Manek (12.4 PPG) is a game time decision. The Tar Heels couldn't close out ND on the 5th and now going to lay 6 points to a team they haven't beaten since February 2017. Meanwhile, Tony Bennett's bunch is coming off 2 impressive conference road wins over Syracuse and Clemson. Moreover, they've had an extra day of prep. Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS on the road vs a team with a home win % above .700. Cavaliers have a veteran group led by Gardner and Franklin who are part of a group that can slow the Tar Heels down and work their methodical attack successfully. Take the points with the Cavaliers. |
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01-07-22 | Marquette -2 v. Georgetown | 92-64 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
Marquette/Georgetown 6:30: Georgetown has been idle for nearly 3 weeks due to Covid issues. Wednesday, was their first full practice in more than 2 weeks. Going to be hard to establish a rhythm and keep up with the frenetic pace that Shaka Smart will employ with his Golden Eagles. Marquette is coming off a blowout of Providence on Tuesday. Smart's blend of transfer talent Morsell (MD), Kuath (OK) and PG Kolek (George Mason) appear to be establishing a rhythm offensively. And their big man - Justin Lewis - adds a strong dimension to their inside game. GT does have some 3 point marksmen in Rice, Carey and dangerous Mohammed but Smart surely will shift defensive pressure to the perimeter. Eagles 4-1 ATS on the road vs home team with a home win % above .600. And they're 6-2 ATS on Fridays. Marquette, under Wojciechowski, had some success at Georgetown and under the new leadership of Smart, the Golden Eagles should deliver tonight. |
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01-06-22 | Ohio State v. Indiana -2 | 51-67 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
OSU/Indiana 7:00: Hoosiers were horrendous at Penn State on Sunday where they were a brick laying 4 of 17 from 3-point range, out-boarded yet still managed a narrow 3-point loss. Hoosiers now return home where they're 9-0. Indiana returned home successfully with a win in each of their last 2 road defeats this season. They're taking on an OSU team struggling defensively (198th nationally). Buckeyes had trouble getting their legs back at lightweight Nebraska where they needed OT to pull off a win. Prior to that, OSU was on an extended break (Dec 11th) after Covid issues occurred. We'll give the edge to the hungry Hoosiers here. Home team in this series is 6-1 ATS. Indiana the call. |
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01-05-22 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State -2.5 | 47-51 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow..... |
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01-04-22 | LSU v. Kansas State -7 | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
LSU/Kansas State 9:00: Long list of opt outs on the LSU game. They're coming off two big wins under their interim coach while Kelly waits in the wings. But question their motivation here. They'll be without star LB Clark and DL Farrell Jr.. Consequently, K State will focus on pounding the football with their 320 lb average offensive line to free up 1200+ rusher Deuce Vaughn. And QB Skylar Thompson (69% completions) (leg) is good to go. Meanwhile, LSU is undecided on QB with transfer Max Johnson opting out. They have unproven QBs Nussmeier, Faulk and Kirklin unsettled on. Most likely lean on RB Kiner who is replacing opt out 1000+ rusher Davis-Price. Kansas State equipped with playmakers including DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah who has 11 sacks and 14 1/2 TFLs. Should see K State wear down the Tigers similar to what Kentucky did to them earlier in the season. K State the call. |
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01-03-22 | Browns +2.5 v. Steelers | 14-26 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 38 m | Show | |
Browns/Steelers 8:15: Browns eliminated from playoffs by virtue of LA Chargers winning Sunday. Steelers are holding on for their dear lives to land a playoff spot but must win out and get some outside help next week; as a result of the conclusion of today, this line bumped around. Cleveland opened as a small favorite but as of Sunday evening became a dog. Regardless of the bad news for Cleveland, this is a longtime rivalry and they would like nothing more than to end Pittsburgh's playoff hopes on Monday. Therefore, I see Cleveland showing up to play some football. They have the better offensive line/run game even without Conklin (IR). Chubb ran through a decent Packers' defense last week for 126 yards; moreover, Hunt (ankle) should be back and throw in D'Ernest Johnson (averaging 5.7 YPC), you got a three headed monster thrashing through a poor Steelers' run-stop-unit that gives up 142.7 YPG (31st in NFL). And Mayfield, who's had a poor year, has most of his receiving targets available. On the other hand, Steelers' run game never got on track this year (87.6 YPG) as Najee Harris has to work for every 3 YPC and a cloud of rubber chips he can muster. And sad to say, Big Ben no longer has that ability to move around the pocket so well, process and react the way he did for so many years. Browns' secondary is thin but I don't believe the old magic of Ben will resurface tonight against a formidable Browns' pass rush with Garrett and Clowney healthy. Browns the call. |
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01-02-22 | Raiders +8.5 v. Colts | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Raiders/Colts 1:00: Raiders usually slip slide away with the December weather but are defying logic this time around as they control their own destiny with a legitimate shot for the playoffs if they win out. They're off two wins and we're back on them again today. The trendy pick is Indianapolis which is coming off a monster win Christmas Day at Arizona. But Indy not the greatest in the role back at home off back-to-back SU/ATS wins where they're 0-7 ATS. Sure, they're getting back lots of bodies from the Covid list, including - most likely Wentz. And the line is inflated because of it. Raiders' defense impressive last week holding Denver to 18 yards rushing and 150 total yards. And the Raiders' run game looked solid last week as well with Jacobs (129 yards/ 4.8 YPC). The Raiders' offense could surely use TE Waller (Covid/Knee) but Moreau is doing a decent job and Carr is making the best of who he has at his disposal. We'll look for the Raiders to stick around; after all, they're 9-0 ATS on the road vs the AFC South. In the spirit of John Madden - Go Raiders! |
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01-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bengals +4 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Chiefs/Bengals 1:00: Bengals are one win away from winning the AFC North while the Chiefs are looking for that First Round Bye. Always a concern with the Bengals off two straight wins - a spot that has been shaky for a few years, but we've got Cincinnati at home as a dog and they're 9-1 ATS as a dog off a SU win of 14+. And the Bengals are in great hands with Joe Burrow who is maturing into an elite QB. His weaponry is healthy and his line is improving. Moreover, defensively, WLB Logan Wilson is back, the secondary is stepping up their game, and sack master - Hendrickson (14 sacks) is healthy. Sure, KC gets back TE Kelce but RB Edwards-Helaire is out. Chiefs now a dangerous team but a bit overvalued here considering they're just 4-9 ATS after scoring 30+ in previous game. Bengals the call. |
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01-02-22 | Dolphins v. Titans -3 | 3-34 | Win | 102 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Titans 1:00: Titans A.J. Brown made a huge difference last Thursday. Miami is a blitz happy team and most likely that means man coverage on Brown. Tannehill clearly a more confident QB with Brown in the lineup and Wesbrook-Ikhine is stepping up his game. And fortunately, the Titans' left side of their offensive line is back this week with LG Saffold and LT Lewan returning to protect Tannehill better and improve on the run game with Foreman and McNichols. Defensively is something to get excited over as a Titans' backer. Their sack strong line is healthy and the nine days of rest compared to Miami's 5 days, allowed their secondary to heal their wounds. Miami still has offensive woes starting with one of the worst run games in the NFL (30th). Tennesse is a sweet 6-0 ATS as a favorite after a Thursday game. Miami just 1-4 ATS following a Monday Night game. A win over the Dolphins gives Tennessee the AFC South Championship. Tennessee the call.  |
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01-01-22 | Utah +4 v. Ohio State | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
Utah/Ohio State 5:00: Ohio State sported the #1 offense in the nation but comes into this one a virtual shell of that regular season roster. Star opt outs include their two top receivers Wilson (1,058 yards) and Olave (936 yards), their top OL Petit-Frere. C.J. Stroud is a very good QB but only as good as his surrounding talent. He faces a tough Utah defense that gets after the QB with 3.2 sacks per game, a big time linebacker and solid secondary. And Utah is no slouch offensively with QB Cameron Rising (18 TDs/5 INTs/ 2279 yards) and a 1000+ rusher w/ 20 TDs in Tavion Thomas. OSU had its share of problems defensively this season and have a few opt outs on that side of the ball too with Haskell Garrett out. Utah HC Whittingham a strong 7-2 SU in last 9 bowl games and lead his team to a strong finish with a blowout of Oregon in PAC 12 Championship. Utah still hungry though as they are first time in the history of the program going to the Rose Bowl. OSU, on the other hand, OSU had higher aspirations (CFB playoffs) and I question their motivation. Utah the call.  |
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01-01-22 | Oklahoma State v. Notre Dame | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State/Notre Dame 1:00: Mike Gundy posts an outstanding 7-2 ATS ledger in bowls since 2012, including 5-0 run. And this year, defense has been the strength of the team posting a Top 10 defense nationally. DC Jim Knowles is off to Ohio State in the same capacity. Oklahoma State has 4 defensive assistants and a grad assistant guiding the defense while Gundy overlooks the plan. The players know their roles and shouldn't miss a beat. On the other hand, Notre Dame opens a new era with Marcus Freeman as their head coach. Players are with him but the Irish won't have leading rusher Kyren Williams (NFL prep) or OL Josh Lugg. Oklahoma State posts nearly 4 sacks per game and should give QB Jack Coan trouble. Oklahoma State offense should have their top rusher - Warren - back after he missed the Big 12 Title game. His difference was notable in that loss to Baylor. QB Spencer Sanders doesn't have the pressure on him like season past Oklahoma State QBs. Based on personnel and bowl history, Oklahoma State has the edge and we'll jump on them here. |
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12-31-21 | Georgia v. Michigan +7.5 | Top | 34-11 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
Michigan/Georgia 7:30: Michigan coming into this one with lots of confidence after blowing out Ohio State and winning the Big 10 Championship decisively. Georgia, on the other hand, came out of the SEC Championship with a lot of uncertainty after getting blasted by Alabama. Georgia's Smart doesn't lose often but is only 1-4 ATS off a SU loss. Not convinced they're 7.5 favorites here. Michigan is very well balanced in every facet of the game. Wolverines possess an outstanding offensive line (Joe Moore Award winner) to counter the formidable defensive front of Georgia. Wolverines' run game with Haskins and Blake Corum is the best the Bulldogs face this season. And QB McNamara has been an excellent game manager who limits mistakes (only 3 INTs in 264 attempts). His numbers (2,301 yards, 14 TDs, 64% Comp) don't jump off the page but his on-field leadership is tremendous. And he has a solid receiving corps including clutch TE Erick All. As for the Bulldogs' offense, their TE Brock Bowers will surely be the focal point of the passing game and Michigan should be well prepared to counter. Georgia's QB Bennett a solid game manager but he can be rattled in big games as his 2 INT's in the Alabama game suggests. And Michigan has a solid run-stop unit that surely respects Geogia's powerful run game but has demonstrated that it can limit explosive plays (#4 in points allowed). Moreover, they can rush the passer with Hutchinson and Ojabo collecting a combined 25 sacks! With these teams matching well, I'm taking the points with the hungry underdog that finally got over the hump in the Harbaugh era and raging with confidence. |
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12-31-21 | Cincinnati +14 v. Alabama | 6-27 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
Cincinnati/Alabama 3:30: Big step up here for the Bearcats but they're ready for the big stage. This veteran team proved its worth in last year's Peach Bowl vs Georgia with a competitive 24-21 loss as an 8.5 dog. With the nucleus of that team back here, they're not going to be intimidated in this spot. Bearcats possess arguably the best secondary in the NCAA with corners Gardner and Bryant. They can sack the QB (37) and opportunistic (18 interceptions). QB Bryce Young was fabulous vs Georgia in the SEC Championship and sliced and diced Georgia's secondary. Cincinnati's defensive staff had the opportunity to break down the film and make the adjustments with their outstanding secondary personnel. This is not one of the better offensive lines of Alabama. They've given up nearly 2.7 sacks per game and the run game is 81st in the nation. Keep in mind that Bearcats' HC Fickell was part of the Ohio State defensive staff that beat the 2014 Alabama team in the Playoff Semi-Finals en-route to winning it all that season. Offensively, Bearcats can move the football with veteran signal caller Desmond Ridder (3190 yards, 30 TDs/8 INTs). And he can hurt teams with his feet (361 yards/6 TDs). And RB Jerome Ford (1242 yards/19 TDs) who transferred from Alabama is surely capable of accumulating yards behind a very good offensive line. Cincinnati 5-0 ATS as a dog and 6-0 ATS vs teams above .500. We'll take the two TDs. |
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12-30-21 | Pittsburgh +3 v. Michigan State | 21-31 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh/MSU 7:00: No secret that both of these teams' top stars are opting out (NFL). Spartans won't have their Doak Walker Award winner Kenneth Walker III and Pittsburgh will be without Heisman Trophy finalist QB Kenny Pickett. With all facets of game considered, Pittsburgh has the edge. Panthers have a Top 10 offensive line in the nation, Biletnikoff Award WR Jordan Addison and shifty, versatile RB Abanikanda. and 6'6" TE Lucas Krull that can help out backup QB Nick Patti (12 of 14 this season). Michigan State pass defense is one of the worst in the nation - allowing 338 yards per game. On the other hand, Pittsburgh defense is one of the best run stop units in the nation (#6). Remember, Pittsburgh HC Narduzzi was a tremendous DC for Michigan State before he took over Pittsburgh's HC duties. Panthers 12-5 ATS in December, 6-1 ATS vs teams above .500 and beat Top 25 Teams in 5 of the last 6 years. Michigan State a concerning 1-8 ATS as a favorite vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Panthers the call.  |
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12-30-21 | South Carolina v. North Carolina -10 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
South Carolina/North Carolina 11:30: Hard to imagine Mack Brown losing two straight bowl games. North Carolina easily underachieved this year and Brown should have his men well prepared; after all, he has his NFL bound QB Sam Howell available and a good amount of weaponry at his disposal in the #9 offense in the nation. South Carolina played great defense this year but offensively stuck in neutral. QB Jason Brown performed mediocre with 56% completions, 8 TDs and 6 INTs. He has a pretty good RB in White and decent receivers. And NC defense is nothing to write home about. However, unlikely SC can trade points effectively with the Tar Heels. NC will score and I would be surprised if SC can slow this game down and keep the Tar Heels off the field. Tar Heels coming off a season ending loss at NC State and in an ornery mood. They're 9-4 ATS off a SU loss under Brown and should deliver here. |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma -6.5 | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
Oregon/Oklahoma 9:15: Legendary Sooners' former head coach Bob Stoops steps in to coach this game and should do well holding the program together in the interim until Venerables leads them next year. On the other hand, Cristobal bailed and Ducks' assistant McClendon will lead until Dan Lanning steps in for the 2022 season. Didn't like how the Ducks finished the season losing in blowout fashion to the Utes in 2 of their final 3 games. The 38-10 burial in the PAC12 Championship was not a good indication of a team with much heart after getting stomped by the same Utes team 38-7 a few weeks earlier. Sure, the Sooners won't have 4 defensive starters for this one but have quality reserves that got plenty of reps during the season. And Ducks' QB Anthony Brown is surely no Justin Herbert. On the other hand, Oregon has its share of opt outs including pass rush specialist Thibodeaux. Sooners' QB Caleb Williams is a playmaker and he has a solid supporting cast. We'll lay the points with Oklahoma. |
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12-28-21 | Louisville v. Air Force +1.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
Air Force/Louisville 3:15: Air Force leads the FBS in rushing with 341 YPG with multiple backs gobbling up chunks of yardage. QB Daniels runs the offense well and he sports 5 YPC in his 705 yards rushing. Sure, Louisville had 2 1/2 weeks to overcome getting gashed (362 rush yards) by Kentucky; however, very tough to simulate the precision, speed, rhythmic motion of the Falcons' triple option attack with a scout team. That kind of speed and precision can't be simulated. Cardinals' defense allowed 157 YPG during regular season. Defensively, AF is fundamentally sound in all areas and a Top 10 defense in terms of yards allowed. They have playmakers at all levels. Cardinals' versatile QB Malik Cunningham is a major playmaker and won't be stopped. AF has the discipline to contain him to a certain extent. AF has done well in bowl games and rise to the occasion as its 23-9 ATS non-conference and 6-2 ATS bowl ledger suggests. Cardinals 0-3-1 ATS vs MWC. Air Force the call. |
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12-28-21 | Houston +2 v. Auburn | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
Houston/Auburn Noon: Both of these teams have coaches with a troubling history of bowl losses and now on teams with a brief history of bowl losses. With all personnel together, Auburn would be TD favorite in this one but all personnel is not together for the Tigers. Auburn won't have key offensive cogs: QB Nix (Oregon transfer), RT Brodarious Hamm (NFL draft prep); sure, QB T.J. Finley was an adequate sub in the final two games including almost the monumental upset of Alabama. But credit the Auburn defense and major miscues by Alabama more. And key Tigers' defensive personnel - LB McCain and All-American C McCreary. And let's not forget the change in OC for Auburn as Boba was fired in November. Austin Davis steps in to fill the role. Just too much change to create a smooth-running team going into this one. Houston is not without key players skipping this one. Explosive KR utility guy Marcus Jones opted out (NFL draft prep) but overall, Houston maintains the nucleus of its team. QB Clayton Tune (28/9 TD/INT), leading rusher McCaskill lead a pretty potent offense that dropped 37.3 PPG on opponents this season and only coughed up the ball twice all season. Defensively, the Cougars ranked #6 in the nation in total yards allowed and allowed just 21 PPG (#28). Sure, Auburn had the way tougher schedule in the SEC but the lack of their top playmakers should disrupt their chemistry. Houston coming into this one with more continuity and worth taking as a small dog. |
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12-27-21 | Dolphins v. Saints +3.5 | 20-3 | Loss | -119 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Saints 8:15: Yes, Saints ravaged with Covid issues on both sides of ball. But still not ready to lay points with the Dolphins on the road (2-5 as road chalk), especially on MNF (2-8 ATS). Sure, the Dolphins are a popular choice now that they're on a 6 game win streak. A closer look reveals all but one of those wins were against teams below .500. The game they won was vs the Ravens at Miami on Thursday night (Nov 11th). Tonight, Saints will rely on their run game and quick game with 4th team QB Ian Book running the show. He's got Kamara, Callaway and Smith to lean on. Sean Payton will surely find a weakness to exploit in the overly aggressive Miami defense. On the other hand, Saints' defense coming off a superb performance vs explosive TB. Tonight, they face the struggling run game of Miami (30th in league). The Saints are short a few secondary players but still have lockdown CB Lattimore available and a few others who've played significant minutes this season. Saints a sweet 6-1 ATS after scoring less than 15 points previously, 7-3 ATS in December; what's more, Saints 5-1 ATS on MNF off back-to-back SU/ATS wins in the Payton era. Saints the call. |
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12-26-21 | Washington Football Team +10 v. Cowboys | 14-56 | Loss | -103 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
Washington/Dallas 8:20: Cowboys are rolling and surely a solid spread winner this season, but Washington is no easy out. Washington didn't have any quit in them with a fierce rally on Dec 12th before a big defensive play by Parsons sealed the deal. We'll look for the Football Team to give their rival a tough time here. Rivera sports a solid 4-2 ATS mark vs Dallas and he's 5-1 ATS with revenge. With Heinicke back at the helm, Washington has a fighting chance. Take the double digits. |
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12-26-21 | Broncos v. Raiders +1 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Broncos/Raiders 4:25: Raiders have had Denver's number going 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS in its last 8 in this series, including 34-24 on October 17th. In that game, Raiders got after Bridgewater hitting him a number of times and sacking him five times. Today, interception king - Drew Lock - takes over at the helm as Bridgewater is in concussion protocol. Lock has a tendency to rally his troops and make flashy plays but usually follows up with a late game interception or fumble that proves costly. Raiders still have an outside chance to get into playoffs and I surely trust Carr more than Drew Lock. Of course, Waller (knee) and Ruggs (cut) are no longer around but Carr still has enough weaponry at his disposal and TE Moreau turning into a pretty good target as well. We'll jump on Las Vegas. |
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12-26-21 | Bills v. Patriots -1 | 33-21 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
Bills/Patriots 1:00: Bills swept this series last year including the 38-9 whitewashing at Foxborough on December 28th. Patriots got busy in the free agency market bolstering their offensive and defensive line, adding playmaker hybrid edge rusher Judon and linebacker Van Noy. And the draft went well choosing QB Mac Jones; as a result, they're in position to sweep this series and win the AFC East. Bills have had trouble in this spot - coming off a double-digit SU win vs division opponent off SU/ATS loss. Buffalo run-stop-unit was exposed in first matchup Dec 6th, and Pats get Damien Harris (hamstring) back with C Andrews today. TE Hunter Henry could play a key role today as well. Buffalo won't have their starting guards - LG Feliciano and RG Ford (covid). That doesn't bode well for a team attempting to establish their run game. NE 3-1 ATS off losses and we'll hop on Belichick and the Patriots again here. |
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12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals -2 | 22-16 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
Colts/Cardinals 8:15: Good spot for Arizona to get it together here; after all, they're a sweet 15-2 ATS when coming off consecutive SU/ATS losses including a perfect 12-0 ATS vs .600 or less opponent; moreover, if the opponent is non-division, they're a perfect 11-0 ATS. After losing to the Rams, Cardinals got rolled by Detroit but don't get too concerned. Cardinals are 8-2 ATS off losses of 14+. Cardinals should have RB Conner (heel) good to go while QB Murray is overdue to step up his game. Sure, he won't have Hopkins (knee) but TE Ertz, Kirk and A.J. Green is a solid trio of weapons. Indy is a bit banged up including in their secondary with S Sendejo out. Offensively for Indianapolis is a concern with their best lineman G Nelson (Covid) out. In addition, other interior linemen - C Kelly (personal) and G Glowinski (Covid) are declared out at this time. Arizona front line a formidable bunch, including a healthy WLB Chandler Jones, can get after the QB. And Wentz has been vulnerable to the sack. Sure, Jonathon Taylor is playing at MVP level but without his top hogs up front, lanes may close quickly tonight. Arizona not that easy to score against (5th in points allowed) and opportunistic (forced 24 turnovers). Arizona overdue to get on track here. With Colts' Reich just 2-10 ATS off back-to-back SU wins vs non-division foes, Cardinals the call.  |
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12-25-21 | Browns v. Packers -7 | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
Browns/Packers 4:30: Hard to fade the Packers. They're strong this time of year (4-1 ATS Week 16) and covered 16 of their last 21 home games. Cleveland desperately needs a win to cling on slipping playoff hopes but Green Bay is also looking to secure a win for home field advantage throughout playoffs. Aaron Rodgers is the front-runner for the MVP and he should stay on top of his game despite having a few starting linemen out; after all, Cleveland has a razor thin secondary and their top pass rushers - Clowney (Covid) out with Garrett (groin) hurting. Sure, Rodgers won't have Valdes-Scantling and Cobb - both out; however, he still has plenty of weaponry with Adams, Lazard. St. Brown and RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Browns will have Mayfield available but a few linemen out. And Packers' defense, unlike in years past, is well managed under DC Joe Berry. We'll look for them to close at home. Packers are 20-8 ATS off an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in this series. Green Bay the call. |
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12-25-21 | Ball State +6 v. Georgia State | 20-51 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
Georgia State/Ball State 2:30: We won't sleep on Ball State which exploded out of the gate last year in their bowl win last year as an 8 point underdog vs San Jose State in a 34-13 win which was more lopsided than the final score indicated. This season, Ball State underachieved with virtually the same veteran players (leniency law allowed seniors to return another year in 2021). Yes, the Cardinals have their respectable line and skill players including QB Drew Pitt and his solid targets in Jackson, Hall and Tyler. And RB Carson Steele ran for a solid 829 yards with 6 TDs. Defensively, they're underrated. They're tough in the red zone and opportunistic forcing 15 turnovers. Georgia State is definitely confidant coming into this one with a strong 7-5/ 8-4 ATS ledger with a strong offense and surging defense. They're confident they can run all over the Ball State defense with their deep backfield and versatile QB, but I'm not buying it. Cardinals are 10-4 ATS as a dog, 14-5 ATS vs teams above .500 and 4-0 in December. This Bowl has historically been close in scoring and I expect that here. Take the Cardinals. |
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12-23-21 | 49ers -3 v. Titans | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
49ers/Titans 8:20: Titans are a dangerous dog but are having their share of problems on the offensive side of ball. Penalties and turnovers are abundant. Tannehill threw 11 INTs over the last 9 games and he's been sacked 41 times - that's tied for most in the NFL with Joe Burrow. Problem could be exacerbated tonight with a healthy Nick Bosa (15 sacks on the year) aligned where Tennessee is thin - on the left side of the line. Tennessee's LT Taylor Lewan (back) and LG Saffold (shoulder/Covid) are out. Tennessee, which has been devoid of explosive plays since RB Derrick Henry went down October 31st. It doesn't look that Julio Jones (hamstring) will be ready tonight but A.J. Brown (chest) should be good to go which is a concern. But SF secondary rising to the occasion over their 5-1 ATS run and they have the defensive line (Bosa with at least 1 sack in 6 straight games) getting to QB. Offensively, SF has playmakers - Kittle and Deebo Samuel along with FB Juszczyk. RB Elijah Mitchell (knee) is out but HC Shanahan has been good at mixing up formations penciling in players to make plays during their run. And Jimmy G is doing well at the helm. Tennessee still controls the lead in their division but SF needs a win to stay in the NFC West race. SF has closed as a road favorite at 4-1 ATS and we'll give the edge to them here and lay a field goal. |
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12-23-21 | Central Florida v. Florida -6.5 | 29-17 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 18 m | Show | |
UCF/Florida 7:00: Lots of action on UCF which went on a 5-1 SU/3-3 ATS down the stretch. A closer look at those wins reveals wins against lightweights Memphis, Temple, Tulane, Connecticut and USF; moreover, a closer look at notable season wins reveals Boise State out of the MWC. Meanwhile, Florida has been battling vs heavyweight SEC competition including trading blows with #1 Alabama in a 31-29 loss but easy cover (12). Sure, QB Anthony Richardson and NFL bound DE Zach Carter opted out but the prospects of the Gators are looking bright with new HC Napier. Special Teams Coordinator Greg Knox takes over in the interim and has a number of 5* athletes who will be auditioning for Napier's staff. QB Emory Jones has a number of starts for Florida and will be auditioning for a number of Power 5 Conference teams as he enters the transfer portal. Bottom line is that UCF's HC Malzahn is several top recruiting classes behind the Gators. Knights just 1-4 ATS as a dog. Gators 12-5 as neutral site favorite. With the athlete disparity, the Gators should keep it together tonight in a win and cover. |
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12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas +1 | 27-14 | Loss | -106 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
Miami OH/North Texas 3:30: North Texas took it on the chin early but went 5-0 down the stretch to qualify for this bowl. They did it with an improved defense and pounding the football with DeAndre Torrey. Miami-OH got here with more finesse relying on the arm of Brett Gabbert and big play receiver Sorenson. Miami OH defense pretty solid as well. NT faced a more difficult schedule banging favorably with the likes of bowl teams UTEP and UTSA. And favorable external factors for NT here. They'll be playing nearby in Denton, Texas - essentially a home game for the Mean Green; in addition, more experience playing on natural grass than their counterpart; as a matter of fact, Miami-OH hasn't played on a grass field since September 4, 2010. Miami-OH just 4-13 ATS in non-conference and 2-5 vs Conference USA. We'll look for the Mean Green to pound it out on the ground successfully here. |
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12-22-21 | Missouri v. Army -6.5 | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 46 m | Show | |
Missouri/Army 8:00: Army got over their biggest loss of the season to Navy and appear to be focused on Missouri. Black Knights couldn't get their run game going vs a tenacious Navy defense but should bounce back here; after all, they face one of the worst run-stop-units in the nation. Missouri defense yields 228.8 YPG which is 125th out of 130 FBS teams. Army's vaunted triple option attack, which requires a defense to prepare for disciplined assignment football approach, grinds out 286.4 YPG (#2 nationally). Moreover, both their QBs are respectable throwing when the occasion calls for it. Army's Anderson and Tyler have combined for 9 TD passes with 0 INTs. Defensively, Army posts the #15 ranked defense in terms of yards allowed. Sure, competition level was severely less than Missouri - which battles in the tough SEC. However, Missouri will be without the their key weapon - Tyler Badie who posts impressive numbers- 1604 rush yards, 330 yards receiving and combined 18 TDs! He opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. On top of that, Missouri is going with a new QB Brady Cook who will make his first career collegiate start. He beat out Bazelak who was ineffective in the final game of the season; consequently, should be hard to establish a well-orchestrated offense with limited prep time. Army has been a solid bowl team under Monken at 3-1 ATS. We'll roll with Army |
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12-21-21 | San Diego State v. UTSA +3 | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 60 m | Show | |
UTSA/San Diego State 7:30: UTSA won't have their top RB McCormick who's prepping for the NFL draft. He was a huge part of the running game and a big loss; however, UTSA offense no one trick pony. The Roadrunners are equipped with great athletes including versatile QB Frank Harris who passed for nearly 3000 yards with 25 TD passes and only 5 INTs. Moreover, he ran for 565 yards and 6 TDs. Roadrunners have decent depth at RB with Brady and B.J. Daniels who both run for nearly 5 YPG behind a veteran, physical offensive line. And wideouts Franklin and Cephus, who've collectively accumulated over 1700 yards receiving and 17 TD catches, should be able to expose the SDSU secondary that was torched against Utah State last week in the MWC Championship. Sure, SDSU will show up today, they're well coached; however, offense too pedestrian to penetrate a physical and athletic UTSA defense. We'll take the Roadrunners. |
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12-21-21 | Seahawks +7 v. Rams | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 6 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Rams 7:00: By the late portion of last week, nearly half of the Rams' team was under protocol. Protocol restrictions were eased by the league officials a week ago so many of those players will be good to go providing a few negative tests. A few key Rams' players who were listed as "out" as of Monday include SLB Von Miller, TE Tyler Higbee and LT Havenstein - all impact players. Missing the key personnel is one thing, but the disruption of preparation with the Rams' practice facility closed is a concern. Meanwhile, the Seahawks, which still are mathematically alive in the playoff race, went on with business in preparation with limited Covid issues. Seattle is off 2 straight wins and hypothetically could finish at 9-8 providing they win out. It's not unusual for the Seahawks to be strong this time of year; after all, they're 4-1 ATS in December and dangerous vs their division, especially in the dog role; for example, they're 10-1 ATS as a dog vs a division opponent off a SU/ATS win. In addition, they're 9-2 ATS vs division opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. Defensively, Seattle is yielding but not giving up many points. Seattle is 4th in the NFL in scoring defense. Sure, McVay has had Carroll's number; however, Seahawks now in double revenge mode, including last year's playoff loss gives extra incentive to Seattle. With the run game starting to pick up with RB Penny, and QB Wilson getting in better rhythm, Seattle won't be an easy out. Seahawks the call. |
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12-20-21 | Vikings -6.5 v. Bears | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
Vikings/Bears 8:15: Bears playing for pride but even that is questionable at this stage of the season; after all, Chicago is 0-4 ATS off a SU loss of 14+ in their last 4 in that role. They hung with GB for 3 1/2 quarters last week before the flood gates opened. Tonight, it's not going to get easier. Sure, Fields will be a good QB and he does have a few playmakers in WR/PR Grant, Mooney and RB Montgomery. But having Allen Robinson on the Covid list won't help. Moreover, they won't have LT Peters and most likely their RT Borom. That won't bode well against a top tier pass rushing unit of Minnesota and ball hawking Peterson, Smith and Harrison roaming the secondary. Offensively, the Vikings may be fully loaded if Thielen (ankle) is added to the roster. As of today, he is questionable - which is good news for Vikings' backers but bad news for the Bears; after all, they will most likely be without their entire starting secondary - Covid issues. Super rookie - Justin Jefferson uncharacteristically dropped a few last week and should put up big numbers tonight. Cousins has been solid on the road and he's been accurate most of the year; of course, having Delvin Cook in the backfield is always a huge benefit. Don't like laying points with Minnesota; after all, they give up big leads (last week a sweat to the end) but in this instance, Vikings have a clear-cut advantage in personnel and should take advantage of it. Vikings the call. |
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12-20-21 | Tulsa v. Old Dominion +9.5 | 30-17 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
Old Dominion/Tulsa 2:30: Tulsa played a tough schedule and were competitive against some elite teams, including taking #4 Cincinnati to the wire in a controversial loss. However, Old Dominion no pushover. They started the year sluggish after no games last year due to Covid, but turned things around after their bye week reeling off 5 straight wins and covers. Monarchs are solid on both sides of the ball. Tulsa has a pretty strong run game led by Shamari Brooks but QB Brin has thrown 16 INTs this season. Old Dominion is well disciplined defensively with an opportunistic secondary. Offensively, the Monarchs started cooking offensively when inserting red shirt freshman Hayden Wolf. He's put up some good numbers and has a solid vertical threat in WR Jennings and a 6'8" match-up nightmare in the red zone with TE Kuntz. Moreover, a 1000+ yard rusher in Blake Watson behind a sturdy offensive line. Old Dominion went 8-3 ATS vs non-conference foes. Not crazy about Tulsa laying near double-digits here. They're just 2-6 ATS vs C-USA. Take Old Dominion. |
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12-19-21 | Bengals +3 v. Broncos | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
Bengals/Broncos 4:05: The Bengals have played pretty well on the road this season with wins at Pittsburgh, Detroit, Baltimore and Las Vegas. They're coming off a narrow OT loss to San Francisco. They're 5-2 ATS off a SU loss; moreover, Joe Burrow is 3-0 ATS off consecutive losses in his career. Bengals' offensive line struggling but Burrow has amazing processing skill to find his talented receiving corps including explosive Ja'Marr Chase. Bengals are 7-2 ATS on the road vs teams with winning home records. Denver, on the other hand, can't be trusted off big wins of 14 points or more where they've gone a disappointing 3-8-1 ATS. We'll look for the Bengals to get it done on a field where they've historically had success (4-0 ATS). Cincinnati the call. |
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12-19-21 | Titans v. Steelers -1 | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Titans/Steelers 1:00: Steelers coming off arguably their worst first half of football in recent memory on the 9th at Minnesota. They did, however, show grit in that second half with a ferocious rally to nearly cover. We'll look for that enthusiastic play to stem over to this game at Heinz Field where the Steelers have gone 4-0-1 SU in their last 5 games there. Steelers 6-1 ATS after allowing 35+ points. Steelers realize they're on the ropes in the playoff race and will need to run the table while hoping for other contenders to fall. Steelers do have a few bodies getting better (LG Haeg, C Haden) and hopefully have Watt (groin) good to go. Fortunately for Pittsburgh's defense, they compete with a much less explosive offense today. Tennessee offense has averaged just 4.6 YPP over their last 5 games. Tennessee offense is simply not rolling with key playmakers A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry on IR. Foreman not getting it done and Tannehill struggling as the numbers support. Pittsburgh has won 3 straight in this series and we'll look for them to deliver here. |
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12-18-21 | Patriots +2.5 v. Colts | 17-27 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
Patriots/Colts 8:20: Both teams well rested coming off bye weeks and have had success doing so. And both running the football well and playing solid defense. Edge to Patriots, however, in a few key factors: Colts may have one of the best Guards in the NFL in Quenton Nelson but collectively, since Trent Brown came back vs the Browns, the Patriots have the best offensive line across the board. Sure, NE top rusher Damien Harris is out, but NE can just feed Stevenson and Bolden the rock without missing a beat vs a Colts' undersized defensive front. Then Mac Jones can go to work. Defensively, Patriots have a way of taking away the key component of a game and we won't put that past Belichick with extra prep time. He surely will have prepped his men to stop the NFL's leading rusher Jonathon Taylor. The Patriots' #1 scoring defense will then surely unleash it's well orchestrated pass rush on Wentz who's been solid limiting interceptions; however, he gets hit (60x) the second most in the NFL behind only Atlanta's Matt Ryan (71). With the ball hawking secondary of NE, Wentz could resort back to his Philly daze. Technically, Belichick 11-3 ATS as a greater than .500 team off a SU dog win vs a greater than .500 team off a SU win. He's also an amazing 41-15 ATS after allowing less than 250 yards in previous game. Colts don't play the home favorite role well at 2-5 ATS and have failed to cover in 7 of their last 10 home games. Patriots the call. |
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12-18-21 | UAB +7 v. BYU | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
UAB/BYU 3:30: Seemingly, #13 BYU should be giving more points than a TD; after all, they've beaten 5 PAC 12 teams and beat Virginia of the ACC. UAB is a dangerous dog under Bill Clark. He built the Blazers out the depth of ashes after UAB disbanded for the 2016-17 years. He's got a veteran team that won the C-USA Title last year and turned in some strong performances this year. There have been underachieving performances as well, but Clark's covered 2 straight bowls and brings a hungry team to Shreveport where they'll have more fan support than BYU. The Blazers' defense is stout: #1 in C-USA in terms of yardage. They're run stop unit is 11th in the nation in stopping the run and BYU's Allgeier is surely their focus today. And the Blazers have a respectable line on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they average 2.6 sacks per game and have a well disciplined secondary to limit QB Hall. Offensively, they're a veteran group that's physical and can run the rock with 1100 yard rusher DeWayne McBride. Dylan Hopkins is a capable field general with a solid supporting cast of receivers. We'll look for UAB to gain ground, eat clock and cover this this game. |
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12-18-21 | UTEP v. Fresno State -12 | 24-31 | Loss | -108 | 1 h 38 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-18-21 | Appalachian State -2.5 v. Western Kentucky | 38-59 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky/Appalachian State 11:00: Western Kentucky has a juggernaut for an offense with the nation's #1 passer Bailey Zappe who posts video game numbers in the #2 offense in the nation. Defensively, they're yielding (28.7 PPG allowed). Appalachian State, on the other hand, runs the football well (187.6 YPG), has a competent QB in Chase Brice, and plays bang up defense allowing just 19.3 PPG. The Mountaineers have a veteran defense with a good rush and ball hawking secondary. Mountaineers 6-0 in Bowls and have taken out Bowl contenders Coastal Carolina, East Carolina, Georgia State and Marshall. They're coming off a loss to ULL for Sun Belt Championship. Western Kentucky, coming off a loss to UTSA for CSUSA Championship, just 1-6 ATS vs Sun Belt Conference. Mounties 4-1 ATS neutral site favorite and we'll grab them here. |
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12-17-21 | Coastal Carolina -10.5 v. Northern Illinois | 47-41 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 41 m | Show | |
NIU/CCU 6:00: Northern Illinois coming off big MAC Championship win to cap off a tremendous season. I don't believe they have what it takes to cover this game, however, Coastal Carolina on a mission to win this bowl after failing in this same bowl last year. CC has the 6th ranked offense in terms of PPG with 40.4 led by passing efficiency leader Grayson McCall. He has multiple weapons including a prolific run game with RB Shermari Jones and 1000+ receiver Heiligh. NIU gives up way too many yards on the ground (216 YPG); consequently, should open up more explosive plays for a defense that's given up the big play routinely. NIU does have a decent offense led by QB Lombardi and RB Ducker. CCU more disciplined on the defensive end however. And they can bring the pass rush (32 sacks). Technically, NIU 0-6 ATS in Bowl Games and 2-8 ATS as a dog. We'll lay the points with the Chanticleers. |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Chargers | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
Chiefs/Chargers 8:20: In Week 3 of this series, Chargers delivered the goods 30-24 outright at KC as a 6.5 point dog. Chargers forced 4 turnovers in that game snatching two fumbles and picking off Maholmes twice. For the Chiefs, it was part of a miserable 3-4 SU start to the season. Since then, the Chiefs' defense tightened up the bolts and were instrumental in KC's 6-0 SU run by forcing 16 turnovers, allowing just 311.7 YPG and 10.9 PPG. All is not well for this game, however. Star defensive lineman Chris Jones (Covid) is most likely out. KC has stepped up with other linemen during their run and there is a good shot they can attack the Chargers' weakness along the offensive line. Chargers, already playing two backups along their offensive line, most likely will be without LT Slater (Covid). Former Chargers' drop down linebacker Melvin Ingram will be aiming to work LT sub Trey Pipkins. KC secondary much better than week 3 and should do a better job keeping Chargers' star receivers Allen and Williams in check. Furthermore, versatile RB Ekeler (questionable) on a short week to heal a sprained ankle. On the other hand, Chiefs' offensive line gradually getting it together and should start opening holes for Edwards-Helaire against a leaky Chargers' run-stop-unit ranked 31st in the NFL allowing a generous 141 YPG. Consequently, that would open up the passing game for Mahomes, Hill and Kelsey to get back to their high octane game. Technically, Chargers 0-4 ATS as a dog vs opponent with revenge. Road team in this series 15-5-1 ATS. And Coach Reid a sweet 13-3 ATS as a favorite off double digit ATS win. Chiefs the call. |
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12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
 Rams/Cardinals 8:15: Rams started season well, then underachieved since October 24th going on an 0-5 ATS plunge before blowing out the Jags last Sunday. Rams, along with Arizona, are arguably the two most talented teams in the NFL on paper. Arizona has lived up to its billing to a certain extent while the Rams are overdue to get it going. We'll look for Los Angeles to deliver here; after all, they haven't lost in Arizona since 2014. They're 6-0 ATS on Arizona's home field. Sure, the Rams are well aware they laid an egg at San Francisco on Monday, November 15th. Yet, they're still 6-2 ATS on MNF on the road vs a division opponent and they're seeking to avenge their 37-20 loss in Los Angeles earlier this season. Arizona is a miserable 1-7 ATS on MNF vs a division opponent and 1-5 ATS as a MNF home favorite. We'll back the Rams here. |
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12-12-21 | 49ers v. Bengals +2 | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
49ers/Bengals 4:25: Bengals coming off a disappointing loss at home to the Chargers. A game in which they were on their way to making a miraculous comeback before RB Joe Mixon fumbled and the Chargers scooped and scored to put it away. Bengals have resilience in them. Burrow, who practiced this week with sore finger, is a sweet 8-2 ATS off a loss as a starter. Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS as a dog after allowing 35+. They're also 6-0 ATS as a non-division home dog off a SU favorite loss. 49ers who will have Deebo Samuel back, are a money burner as a favorite at 4-11 ATS and 1-4 ATS in December. Samuel, the fuel to the SF offense, is dealing with a groin issue and I'm finding it hard to fathom he'll be able to go full throttle today. We'll look for Cincinnati to deliver here. |
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12-12-21 | Lions v. Broncos -11 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
Detroit/Denver 4:05: Had Detroit last week in their epic last second win at home vs Minnesota; today, I'm fading them against a hungry Denver team. Denver's coming off a disappointing divisional loss to KC but still in the playoff hunt. Broncos are 10-1 ATS after scoring less than 15 points. They're also 11-2 ATS vs teams under .500. Moreover, they're 10-1 ATS as favorites of more than 4 points vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Broncos will have Melvin Gordon back today to add to the quality RB depth after Javonte Williams (102 rush yards last week) did a bang up job in KC. Don't see the Lions hanging with a well disciplined Vic Fangio coached defense, especially without a run game this late in the season. And the Lions had nearly a dozen players down with the flu mid week. Broncos should wear them down over the course of this game. Denver the call. |
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12-12-21 | Ravens v. Browns -2.5 | 22-24 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
Ravens/Browns 1:00: Huge scheduling advantage for Cleveland who are coming off a bye in revenge mode from November 28th loss. In that game, they intercepted Lamar Jackson 4X yet still lost the game. Browns had time to rest and get healthy, watch film and prep for a team that's absolutely owned them in recent years. Meanwhile, Ravens coming off loss to Steelers last week and lost their Pro Bowl C Marlon Humphrey (pec). Cleveland absolutely has to win this game to contend for a playoff spot. This time, we'll look for the Browns to establish some semblance of a run game this time around. Bottom line, mid December bye week should pay dividends and give them the win and cover. |
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12-12-21 | Saints -5 v. Jets | 30-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Saints/Jets 1:00: Saints way overdue to get untracked after dropping 5 straight games. New Orleans offense, which has been dreadful during their slide, gets a significant boost with Alvin Kamara back. Also LT Armstead returning will help vs a Jets' defense last in virtually every category in the NFL. QB Taysom Hill should find a semblance of a rhythm running the offense this week. And the Jets are severely shorthanded with eight players out of practice as of Wednesday. Jets are 5-14 ATS after allowing 30+ points. Saints a decent road favorite at 17-8 ATS and 9-3 ATS on the road vs teams below .500. Saint the call. |
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12-11-21 | Navy +7 v. Army | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
Army/Navy 3:00: Army has gotten the best of this series in recent years at 5-2 ATS including last year's 15-0 shutout. Niumatalolo pretty good in a revenge mode and had his men cover 7 of the last 9 games after a rough start. Army is clearly the more complete team with a better defense, better run game and QB. But don't count the Midshipmen out, they're 5-1 ATS with extra rest and covered 6 of their last 8 dog roles. They'll have extra motivation playing for their fallen comrade Bourgeois. Take the points. |
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12-10-21 | Murray State +11.5 v. Memphis | 74-72 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
Steelers/Vikings 8:20: Both teams in desperation mode and still in playoff hunt. Minnesota in a bit more dire need of a win after two straight losses, including embarrassing outright defeat Sunday at Detroit. The Vikings, one game behind Washington and SF for the final NFC Playoff spot, has been atrocious defensively over the last four weeks - allowing 29 or more points in 4 of the last 5 weeks. That is highly uncharacteristic of a defensive minded Mike Zimmer coached team. Help is on the way though. Vikings will get back perennial All-Pro C Patrick Peterson, and important LBs Kendricks and Barr. Fortunately, banged up interior line of Pittsburgh stays banged up with B.J. Finney and Joe Haeg remain out. And protecting Big Ben and unleashing RB Najee Harris has been a problem for most of the year. Offensively, Minnesota will miss Thielen (out) but Justin Jefferson is a matchup nightmare and K.J. Osborn is a decent secondary or third option along with TE Conklin. And Dalvin Cook (shoulder), the engine that fuels the Minnesota offense, could actually play, which would be awesome. He's upgraded as questionable with limited practice. Bottom line, Kirk Cousins, underrated QB, should be able to work the struggling Steelers' secondary. Technically, Vikings not a good favorite, but 7-1 ATS at home off a SU loss vs a greater than .500 opponent. Moreover, Zimmer is a sweet 11-2 ATS off back-to-back SU losses vs non-division foes. Furthermore, Vikings 5-0 ATS on Thursdays off a SU loss. Steelers a money burning 1-5 ATS on Thursdays vs an opponent off SU loss. Take the Vikings. |
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12-07-21 | Butler v. Oklahoma -11 | 66-62 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
Butler/Oklahoma 9:00: Butler sports a respectable 5-3 SU mark on the surface but all wins come against lightweight teams. When they managed to step up in competition, the Bulldogs fell flat dropping to Michigan State, Houston and Texas A&M. The 1-5 ATS Bulldogs now have to travel to their first true road game with one of their top playmakers - Bryce Nye (torn labrum) most likely out. Offensively challenged Butler averaging just 64.6 PPG (306th nationally) will have difficulty manufacturing points vs Porter Moser's well-disciplined bunch. Moser, who had lock-down teams while at Loyola University Chicago, still driving his men to improve on the defensive end despite allowing only one team to shoot better than 37% this season. Butler likes to shoot from the perimeter but Oklahoma allows just 26.5% from the perimeter. Duke transfer Goldwire working well at the point and 6'10" Tanner Groves should be too much for the Bulldogs tonight. Oklahoma the call. |
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12-06-21 | Patriots +3 v. Bills | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
Patriots/Bills 8:15: Bills have alternated wins and losses since October 10th. Sure, they're still an elite team but have their flaws. One of them is the offensive line. Bills' offensive line mediocre at this time of year. Since October, each time the Bills have lost the run game, they've lost the game: Tennessee, Jacksonville and Indianapolis all out run them and proceeded to win. NE now has their run game cooking with Harris and Stevenson behind a physical offensive line and Mac Jones is on with his receiving corps. Bills' top corner Tre'Davious White (ACL) is troublesome. On the other side of the ball, Patriots are locked in as the #1 defense in points allowed and #2 in takeaways. And Belichick has his edge rusher in Judon. Moreover, he's got a lock down corner in J.C. Jackson who should get the assignment on Bills' Diggs. And let us not forget that the Patriots got swept in this series last year including an embarrassing 38-9 demolition on their home field. Belichick doesn't take that lightly and now has the personnel to seek revenge. Belichick a sweet 14-2 ATS with revenge vs a division opponent in December. Take New England. |
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12-05-21 | Vikings v. Lions +7.5 | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
Vikings/Lions 1:00: Lions stick around in games and dangerous as a dog; moreover, they're 5-0 ATS as a division home dog. The Lions traded blow for blow with Minnesota in Minneapolis on October 10th in a 19-17 SU loss but cover as an 8 point dog. Vikings do not play the favorite role well at 1-8 ATS and 0-4 ATS in December. Not having Delvin Cook (shoulder), who is the driving force of that offense, will put more pressure on QB Cousins to produce. Of course having Jefferson and Thielen is always a huge plus. And surely the Detroit defense leaves much to be desired; however, Minnesota defense struggling itself; as a matter of fact, they're 30th in yards allowed and yielding vs the run. Detroit won't have explosive RB Swift but Jamaal Williams a productive backup. Minnesota has a big void at MLB without Kendricks (63 solo, 4 sacks, 2 INTs). Detroit QB Goff has some solid weapons including TE Hockenson. We'll look for the well rested Lions to give that extra revenge effort and deliver its 3rd straight cover in this series. |
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12-05-21 | Giants v. Dolphins -6 | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Giants/Dolphins 1:00:Â Dolphins starting to roll and I don't see a setback here; after all, they're getting back DeVante Parker (activated) and C Deiter (activated). Meanwhile, Giants lose QB Daniel Jones (neck) and Shepard and Toney are doubtful. Can't have confidence in Mike Glennon who's record as a starter leaves much to be desired. Couple him with new OC Freddie Kitchens and that's a disaster waiting to happen. Dolphins' defense has been rock solid over the last 4 games allowing an average of just 11.5 PPG. Offensively, Tua starting to get in rhythm with his receivers. Giants are thin in the secondary and won't have an additional playmaker - CB Adoree Jackson (out). Miami a sweet 10-2 ATS at home vs less than .500 foes, 7-1 ATS vs an opponent off a home game, and 9-2 ATS off non-division vs less than .500 foe. Giants 3-12 ATS on the road vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Miami the call. |
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12-05-21 | Chargers v. Bengals -3 | 41-22 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Chargers/Bengals 1:00: Tough schedule for the Chargers - Coming off a loss at Denver and now have to travel to Cincinnati. Bengals sport a 6-1 ATS mark in this series and they're coming off two strong wins at Las Vegas and home vs Pittsburgh where they grinded out 159 and 200 yards rushing, respectively. That doesn't bode well for the Chargers' yielding run-stop-unit that's last in the NFL allowing 145 YPG. Joe Mixon should continue to set things up for Joe Burrow. Burrow slinging the ball to multiple weapons -Chase, Higgins, Boyd and TE Uzomah. Chargers without C Asante Samuel won't help matters. December football means you got to be able to run the rock. Chargers ran for a mere 72 yards on the ground last week. Bengals control the #4 run stop unit in the NFL and can rush the passer. LAC a money burning 2-12 ATS off a double-digit SU division road loss. We'll lay a field goal with Cincinnati. |
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12-04-21 | Houston +10.5 v. Cincinnati | 20-35 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
Houston/Cincinnati 4:00: Houston no easy out. Since losing their season opener to Texas Tech, the Cougars rattled off 11 straight wins. They have a Top 20 defense in points allowed, and they get after the passer (3.58 sacks per game). Bearcats' QB Ridder is good but this is one of the better defenses he's faced this season besides ND. What is troublesome for Cincinnati is their kicking game. And Houston has the most explosive return specialist in the nation in Marcus Jones who has run back 6 kickoff returns and 3 punt returns. Moreover, Cougars can move the football. QB Tune completed 69% of his passes with 26 TDs and 8 INTs. He has a solid line and good supporting help in skill positions. We'll look for Houston to hang around in this one. |
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12-04-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +3 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Appalachian State/UL-Lafayette 3:30: Appalachian State eager to exact revenge on the Ragin' Cajuns after their October 12th 41-13 beatdown. Sure, the Mountaineers have been on a winning mission since, simplifying their offense and playing stellar defense en-route to a 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS tear. And the Mountaineers have beaten UL-L in the last two Sun Belt Championships. But don't count the Ragin Cajuns out. Sure, Billy Napier is headed to Florida but he insists on coaching this final game to guide his men to what has eluded him in his outstanding tenure at bringing back UL-L football to respectability. He's got a great defense, a veteran, versatile QB Levi Lewis and a hungry group of men. And the Cajuns do not lose at home. We'll look for Napier and his boys to go out winners. |
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12-04-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State -3.5 | 46-13 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
Utah State/San Diego State 3:00: This line has stayed steady on some books but has gotten as high as -6' in others. We won't waiver from the near TD favorite with the Aztecs. Aztecs physically beat up the Aggies last year in a 38-7 beat down. This year, SDS still has a legitimate Top 10 scoring defense allowing just 17.3 PPG. This year, Utah State does have a new QB in Arizona State transfer Logan Bonner who has some solid weapons including dangerous wideout Devin Thomkins. Not to worry SDS backers. The Aztecs have a ball hawking secondary with 15 INTs led by Sr. CB Taylor Hawkins. And the Aggies have had trouble at times protecting Bonner. That doesn't bode well for them with the Aggies fierce defensive front led by sack master Cameron Thomas (10 sacks). On the other side of the ball, SDS likes to control the clock with a bruising run game behind a physical offensive line. Aztecs rush for 178 YPG. Bottom line, if you look at Utah State's losses this season, they come vs physical teams that beat them handily on the line of scrimmage: Wyoming bludgeoned them on the ground in a 44-17 demolition; BYU pounded them 34-24 and Boise State throttled them 27-3. Utah State 0-12 ATS as dogs of less than 24 points vs .700 opponents. Sure, SDS has not been a good favorite but in this instance, brute force should dominate finesse. Aztecs the call. |
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12-03-21 | Clippers v. Lakers +2 | 119-115 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
Clippers/Lakers 10:10: Two underachievers going at it on their home floor. Lakers will be designated home team and the crowd is usually partial to the Lakers at The Staples Center. Clippers on an 0-5 ATS/1-4 SU slide but they do get Paul George back tonight. The Lakers, on a 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS run, will have LeBron James back as he cleared Covid19 protocol and that will help ignite the loaded talent roster of the Lakers. They've lost three straight in this series and tonight is the optimum time to get up another game in the standings on the Clippers and re-establish their presence as a serious contender in the Western Conference Pacific. We'll take a bucket with the Lakers.  |
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12-02-21 | Bucks v. Raptors +5 | 93-97 | Win | 100 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
Bucks/Raptors 7:40: Red hot Bucks won its 8th straight game last night in a 127-125 thriller at home vs Charlotte. Following that emotional win, the Bucks have to travel to Toronto unrested to face a pissed off Toronto team that's lost 3 straight and sports a poor home floor mark of 1-9 ATS. Toronto, however, sports a sweet 9-1 ATS mark off 3 straight losses outgunning their opponent by an average of 13 PPG in that situation. Toronto has held their own in this series at 3-1 ATS in its last 4 meetings. And the Bucks sport a disappointing 1-5 ATS unrested. Sure, Toronto has its share of injuries but the Bucks are thin inside without Lopez (out). We'll look for Van Fleet and Siakam to lead a big effort here in Toronto. Take Toronto. |
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12-02-21 | Bulls v. Knicks +2 | 119-115 | Loss | -106 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
Bulls/Knicks 7:40: Knicks have showed resilience off losses at 5-2 ATS and we'll grab them here. They won in Atlanta and then had a solid cover (SU loss) in Brooklyn led by Alec Burks. Burks took over the starting PG duties in place of Kemba Walker as announced Monday by Thibodeaux. Too early to tell if it's the right decision but NY has a pretty deep bench of playmakers including former Bull - Derrick Rose. Randle needs to continue to elevate his game like he did on November 21st (34 points) in the Knicks loss to successfully counter Vucevic. Bulls coming off big win over Charlotte on the 29th but kind of choppy off SU wins as of late at 1-3 ATS. Bulls are a good road favorite but 1-4 ATS on 2 days rest and 0-4 ATS at MSG. We'll take NY and the bucket. |
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11-30-21 | Duke -2.5 v. Ohio State | 66-71 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
Duke/Ohio State 9:30: There's always a chance of a letdown by a team after a huge win; after all, Duke took out top ranked Gonzaga in Las Vegas on Friday 84-81 to surge to #1. OSU will surely be hungry to knock them off but unlikely. Coach K, in his final season, will have his guys even keeled and well prepared. He's got a great mix of experienced talent including captain - Wendell Moore Jr., Roach and Williams to blend with super freshman - Banchero. And the Blue Devils are far more disciplined on both sides of the floor at this stage; for example, Duke is 2nd in the nation in fouls per possession while OSU ranks 234th; moreover, Buckeyes turned the ball over 17 times resulting in 23 points vs Florida. Duke forced #1 Gonzaga into 17 turnovers on Friday. Duke is 21st in nation in forcing turnovers. And the crowd surely won't sway Duke. They delivered on Friday in front of 20,400! We'll grab the Blue Devils. |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks +1 v. Washington Football Team | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Washington 8:15: Lots of bad news in the press on the Seahawks: riddled by injuries, Russ Wilson not in rhythm with receivers, defense struggling to make plays. Pete Carroll will have none of it. He's looking at going 7-0 down the stretch to make playoffs. I won't bet against him. Carroll is 14-2 ATS off back-to-back losses and the undisputed king of NFL coaches in Prime Time. Seattle a sweet 11-3 SU on MNF. Worried about the Seahawks going to the Eastern Time Zone? Seahawks a sweet 14-2 SU the last 16 with Carroll in that situation. Washington a money burning 5-12 as a home favorite on MNF and just 1-4 ATS in their last 4 at home. We'll grab the Seahawks. |
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11-28-21 | Rams v. Packers +2 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
Rams/Packers 4:25: Rams getting a bit too much credit by the odds-makers here. Sure, they're coming off a bye week and heavily determined to bounce back off two straight losses. Yet, the underachieving Rams control a mediocre defense given all the talent. Their defensive unit got worked at home vs Tennessee and embarrassed on Monday Night in San Francisco. Today, it's not going to get easier vs Aaron Rodgers and company on the near frozen tundra in Green Bay with the projected forecast at 35 degrees game time. Warm weathered Rams had difficulty on the West Coast in its last two games. Sure, Rodgers' toe is broken but it didn't stop him from dropping 385 yards passing with 4 TDs at Minnesota last week. And even if RB Aaron Jones is unable to go, AJ Dillon is an equally effective back. Packers covered 6 straight in this series and I expect a 7th. |
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11-28-21 | Chargers v. Broncos +3 | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
Chargers/Broncos 4:05: I know the Chargers are the sexy pick here; however, this series has been decided by 3 points or less over the last 3 meetings, including 19-16 Chargers win in Carson, CA last year. Denver, 15-7-1 ATS off a bye week; moreover, 15-2 ATS off a bye off SU loss. They had a week to stew over sluggish home performance vs Philadelphia. Fangio's boys 9-3 ATS as a dog off a SU/ATS loss. Denver had that extra week to heal up a beat up offensive line that's still missing guys but should be able to control the line of scrimmage; after all, Chargers' DT Joseph (Covid19) is out on a defensive front that's part of allowing a generous 145 YPG (32nd in the NFL!). Should allow Melvin Gordon III to make up for that late fumble on the 14th. And C Asante Samuel will be missed as Denver not short on playmakers in space: Sutton, Jeudy and Patrick all healthy and should help QB Bridgewater visit the end zone. Defensively, edge rushing extraordinaire - Bradley Chubb is off the IR and ready to give QB Herbert fits. Denver a sweet 9-1 ATS after scoring less than 15 points should deliver here. |
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11-28-21 | Bucs v. Colts +3 | 38-31 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
Bucs/Colts 1:00: Bucs coming off a big MNF win to get back their MOJO after a two game slide; however, that was at home, now they fly to Indianapolis on a short week, and without their starting LG Marpet (out). Meanwhile, Colts coming off a huge win last week at Buffalo as a 7 point dog. Their run game is cooking as RB Jonathon Taylor gashed a very good Buffalo run-stop-unit. Sure, they face the #1 run-stop-unit in the NFL today and get back NT Vita Vea but Indianapolis' offensive line is much better than the Giants' offensive line. And Wentz is at his best, like any solid quarterback in the NFL, when that run game is working. With TY Hilton healthy with his skill teammates Pittman Jr., reserve RB Hines, and even Pascal, there is more than enough quality offense to work the thin TB secondary. And don't discount the Indy defense. They're an opportunistic bunch led by All-Pro LB Darius Leonard. TB just 5-15-2 ATS off a SU win of 14+, 0-6 ATS as a road favorite. Colts a dangerous 4-0 ATS as a dog and we'll grab them here! |
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11-28-21 | Titans v. Patriots -6.5 | 13-36 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Titans/Patriots 1:00: Titans a dangerous dog but limited in skill personnel for interception prone Tannehill. The Titans already without WR Julio Jones and RB Derrick Henry, now won't have A.J. Brown (on IR). That leaves the Titans going deep on their bench to go against the premier secondary in the NFL that's playing exceptionally well. Tannehill, who threw 4 INTs last week, should have an even more difficult time with the well disciplined Patriots' defense. On the other hand, Titans' defense riddled with injuries and facing a well oiled offensive machine with QB Mac Jones and company. No question that Belichick is still fuming inside losing to Vrabel in the playoffs two seasons ago in the playoffs on January 4th 2020 in Foxborough with Tom Brady. We'll look for the master to teach his disciple a lesson today. Patriots 40-15 ATS after allowing less than 250 yards, and 21-8 off a win by 14+. New England the call. |
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11-27-21 | Clemson -11.5 v. South Carolina | 30-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
11-27-21 | Florida State +3 v. Florida | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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11-27-21 | Ohio State -7 v. Michigan | 27-42 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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11-27-21 | Maryland v. Rutgers +2 | 40-16 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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11-26-21 | North Carolina +6.5 v. NC State | 30-34 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show | |
North Carolina/NC State 7:00: North Carolina has been an underachiever this year. The Tar Heels were a Pre-Season Top 10 selection with some having them as a possible BCS team. And although they have 5 losses, only one of them was bad (Georgia Tech). Mack Brown teams stay in games and always dangerous as a dog. Tonight, no different. Brown and North Carolina can play the spoiler and knock its in-state rival out of the ACC Championship game. NC has covered 4 straight in this series, present an explosive offense with QB Sam Howell (probable) and his multitude of weapons. Sure, defensively the Tar Heels give up points. However, their offense is hard to stop. And yes, Tar Heels have struggled on the road but remember, Chapel Hill is a mere 30 minute ride down the 1 40E to Raleigh. Wolfpack just 1-6 ATS off a SU win of 20+. With the road team 6-2 SU in this series, take the Tar Heels and the points. |
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11-26-21 | Cincinnati v. East Carolina +14 | 35-13 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
Cincinnati/East Carolina 3:30: If Cincinnati thinks they're going into Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium to blow out the Pirates like they did in Cincinnati, they have another thing coming. East Carolina is a veteran team that's well balanced on both sides of the ball. Offensively, QB Ahlers has progressively gotten better each year as a four year starter. He has a solid line and really good skill player support in versatile RB Keaton Mitchell and receivers C.J. Johnson and Tyler Snead. Last time the Bearcats visited Greenville, Ahlers lit their secondary up for 535 yard and 4 TDs in a 43-46 loss as a 24' dog. Last season, turnovers did them in at Cincinnati as the Bearcats capitalized on them quickly. Defensively, the Pirates are no longer a welcome mat like they were under Scottie Mongomery. They've shored up their defense in two years and now bring an opportunistic (13 takeaways) veteran defense to the field. East Carolina a dangerous 8-1 ATS vs teams above .500, 8-1 ATS vs conference foes, and 5-0-1 as a dog. Bearcats 0-7 ATS as conference favorites vs a greater than .500 team off ATS win. We'll grab the two TDs here with the home team. |
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11-26-21 | Iowa v. Nebraska -1 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
Iowa/Nebraska 1:30: Nebraska showing progress in every category except the scoreboard. They're in virtually every game covering their last two, including dropping 351 yards passing on a stingy Wisconsin defense. And in this series, Frost's Cornhuskers have covered the last 3 but lost SU. We'll look for Frost to finally get his team in the SU win column here. Iowa has lost the statistical battle in their last 5 games and went 1-4 ATS during that frame. Iowa defense not what it was earlier in the season. Nebraska QB Martinez has been around for the entire Frost era and we'll look for him to go out with a win here. Nebraska the call. |
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11-26-21 | Eastern Michigan +9 v. Central Michigan | 10-31 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan/Central Michigan Noon: Michigan MAC Title on the line and we'll grab the Eagles. EMU looking for their first 8 win season since 1987 and they should make a solid run for the money here. EMU HC Chris Creighton has done a great job building this program and this would do wonders for his recruiting efforts going forward. The Eagles got their run game going with Jawon Hamilton (187 yards vs Western Michigan) on the 16th and we'll see the carry over effect here. Sure, CM has been rolling teams the last three weeks but don't discard the Eagles. They stick around in games. Eagles a sweet 21-6 ATS as a road dog, 13-4-1 ATS on the road vs a team with a winning home record. And they're a sweet 8-0 ATS as a weekday road dog. Eagles looking to avenge last year's 31-23 home loss should keep this one tight.  |
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11-25-21 | Raiders v. Cowboys -7.5 | 36-33 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
Raiders/Cowboys 4:30: Cowboys are 4-0 ATS off a SU loss and covered 6 of their last 7 at home. I expect the Cowboys to come out firing on all cylinders here; after all, they get their starting LT Tyron Smith back and that's big news protecting Prescott's backside. And leading receiver Lamb (concussion protocol) should be good to go. Raiders' defense was very yielding to Joe Mixon last week. Look for Pollard to eat lots of field turf today to set Prescott up for play action. On the other hand, Raiders starting their late season collapse again as they seem direction-less under interim HC Bisaccia. Over the last two weeks, Raiders' offense on 3rd down attempts went 1 for 7 and 1 for 9, respectively. We'll look for the Dallas defense to step up its game today. Cowboys the call. |
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11-23-21 | Western Michigan -3.5 v. Northern Illinois | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show | |
Western Michigan/Northern Illinois 7:00: Northern Illinois clinched the MAC West title last week at Buffalo and they can't help taking a peak into next week's MAC Championship Game. As for Western Michigan, a team with enough wins for a bowl game but could use another win to clearly get off the bubble. The thing about Western Michigan is they've underachieved. The Broncos have outgained every single opponent this year yet sit one game above .500. Remember, these Broncos upset Pittsburgh back on September 18th. Their defense is pretty solid (34th in Total Yardage) and sport an explosive offense with a 1000+ yard rusher in Sean Tyler, versatile QB Eleby, and a very good receiving corps including 1000+ yard receiver Skyy Moore. That doesn't match up well with NIU's defense which has struggled vs the run (allow 5.7 YPC), difficulty sacking QB (1.1 per game), and allow a generous 33 PPG. Huskies have a quality QB in Michigan State transfer Rocky Lombardi but he is at his best when the run game is cooking. WM plays the run pretty well and can bring QB pressure (3 sacks per game). NIU may even rest some starters here. Huskies just 1-3-1 ATS as a home dog, 1-4 ATS on Tuesday. Tonight, we'll look for NIU's luck to run out as Western Michigan cleans up their game and delivers. |
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11-22-21 | Giants +11.5 v. Bucs | 10-30 | Loss | -116 | 19 h 6 m | Show | |
Giants/Bucs 8:15: At first glance, seems like the Giants could be a big play here; after all, they're a ridiculous 20-6 ATS as a road dog, covered 5 of last 7 on MNF, traded blow for blow with TB last season on November 2nd in a 25-23 loss as a 13 point home dog, and they're a ridiculous 12-1 ATS as a conference road dog of 5 or more points. Furthermore, they're coming off a bye-week which offers a huge advantage this time of year to rest and heal. And remember, explosive RB Barkley makes his return, dominant WR Golladay finally should be showcased against an inferior TB secondary that's been scorched the last few weeks. And hard studying Daniel Jones should be prepared under the tutelage of OC Garrett. And defensively, DC Patrick Graham had a solid plan in check last year to successfully disrupt Brady and company for about 57 minutes. But hold everything. After a further look, the Buccaneers have been crushing teams at home and a pissed off Brady is not one to go against off two straight losses; after all, he's 51-15 SU off a loss. As a Giants' backer, however, Brady won't have vertical threat Antonio Brown (ankle) for explosive scores. Bad news for the G Men is that TE Gronk (ribs) should be back. Defensively, however, TB secondary has issues, 350 pound NT beast Vita Vea (knee) is doubtful, and Richard Sheman is on the IR with other important TB secondary cogs. Technically, TB just 1-5 ATS on MNF. Giants should stay in this one. |
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11-21-21 | Ravens v. Bears +6.5 | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
Ravens/Bears 1:00: Ravens, already decimated by injuries, had their QB Jackson under the weather for most of the week. He did practice with team Friday and that surely influenced the line. We'll grab the near TD with the home team here. Bears showed some moxie at Pittsburgh November 8th as the run game averaged 5 YPC and Fields threw for 278 yards. Baltimore is the worst pass defense in the NFL. They already lost C Marcus Peters and will be without S Deshone Elliot. The Bears are coming off their bye week and that's always a plus this time of year. Defensively, Bears won't have Mack (out for season) but still have a solid defense led by LB Roquan Smith. Bears are an amazing 15-1 ATS as a home dog of more than 4 points off back-to-back losses. And Chicago sports an 9-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS mark in their last 8 games vs AFC North opponents. We'll grab the points and the Bears. |
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11-21-21 | Washington Football Team +3.5 v. Panthers | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show | |
Washington/Carolina 1:00: Lots of hype on the return of Cam Newton as the starter. Sure, he ignited a spark as a gadget player around the goal line last week en-route to an easy win over Arizona; however, inserting him as a starter after several years away with a new coaching staff, including a new OC, is a tall order. Washington defense has underachieved this year and Chase Young's season ending injury hurts but they stepped up last week vs the incumbent champs and definitely capable of delivering today. Washington's HC Rivera, who was fired after the 2019 season, is eager to not only revenge last year's 20-13 loss at home but to stick it to the franchise that let him go. Washington defense improving and starting to become the defense they were projected to be in pre-season. DC Del-Rio will have a solid game plan this week to limit McCaffery and keep the heat on Newton. Offensively, Washington should have Curtis Samuel back to add to a respectable receiving corps for QB Taylor Heinicke. Technically, Washington is 4-1 ATS in Week 11, 10-4 ATS off a SU win, and 9-1 ATS off a SU dog win. Carolina 4-12 ATS at home, 1-6 ATS as home chalk, and 1-6 ATS as a home favorite of more than 1 point vs a less than .500 opponent. With Washington 5-2 ATS at Carolina, we'll grab the points with the road team. |
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11-21-21 | Saints +3 v. Eagles | Top | 29-40 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Saints/Eagles 1:00: Not sold on the Eagles and don't give up on the Saints. Eagles coming off a comfortable win over the Broncos in what was perhaps their most complete game of the year. Eagles a young team and with youth comes inconsistency. Saints have a veteran team, winning culture and lots of pride. After last year's losing effort, in a game in which the Eagles ran all over them, the Saints' #1 run stop unit in the NFL should show up big and take away what Philly does best - run the rock. On the other hand, Saints no longer the explosive offense now that Brees has departed, but Siemian is tutored well under Sean Payton. Siemian has been an efficient passer with 5 TD passes and 0 interceptions in his 3 games. Deonte Harris has emerged as his go to guy and Mark Ingram II is capable of keeping the run game going. Eagles are a poor 1-5 ATS as home chalk, and 0-5 SU in their last 5 home games. Saints are 4-0 ATS off a SU loss and a sweet 24-8 ATS as a road dog. Other than the disastrous September 19th game at Carolina (my Top Play that week), the Saints have been competitive in every game this season. Today, they deliver.   |
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11-21-21 | Colts +7.5 v. Bills | 41-15 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Colts/Bills 1:00: Revenge game for the Colts. They've had plenty of time to stew over their 27-24 loss at Buffalo last January in the AFC Wild Card. Although the defense is down a few notches from last year, the Colts are in a better place as a team than a year ago. They've won 4 of their last 5 and covered 5 of their last 7. Wentz has settled in as a solid signal caller, especially on the road (4) where he's thrown for 974 yards, 6 TDs and 0 INTs. He's got a solid supporting cast, including a pretty healthy offensive line now that LG Quenton Nelson is back. Jonathon Taylor is averaging 6.9 YPC with 7 TDs in his last 5 games. And with T.Y. Hilton back in the fray, Wentz has a great variety of targets to go to in Pittman, Pascal, TE Doyle and versatile backs Hines and Taylor. On the other hand, Colts defense down a notch from last year but making plays. And hopefully All-Pro linebacker Leonard (ankle) is good to go. Colts are 8-2 ATS last 10 on the road and sport a solid 17-8-1 ATS November ledger. We'll take the points. |
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11-20-21 | Syracuse +11.5 v. NC State | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
Syracuse/NC State 4:00: Good value with a Syracuse team that last week got ambushed early at Louisville and couldn't recover. But not so fast in dismissing the Orange; after all, they're 6-0 ATS off a SU loss and 9-1 ATS off a SU loss of 20+. Orange have the #1 run game in the ACC with 1300+ yard rusher Sean Tucker and versatile QB Garrett Shrader who between them have 24 rushing TDs. And when the run game is going, Schrader can get into a groove passing. Defensively, they have a Top 25 defense that can get after the QB (3.3 sacks per game). NC State is coming off a disappointing 45-42 loss to Wake Forest in a game they expended everything in the tank on. Wolfpack just 2-6 ATS after scoring 40+ and 3-9 ATS in November. 'Cuse needs 1 win to be bowl eligible and with Pittsburgh on deck, Syracuse should leave it all on the field in this revenge game. This series is competitive and the road dog is 4-1 ATS. Go Orange! |
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11-20-21 | Michigan -14.5 v. Maryland | 59-18 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
Michigan/Maryland 3:30: MD, as expected, freefalling under Locksley - who has loads of 5* recruits but can't do anything with them. Terps on a 1-5 SU/0-6 ATS slide. And the Terps don't match up against the physical style of play of the Wolverines. When Michigan wins the run game battle, they usually win and cover (yes, including at Wisconsin) as exhibited in every game this year. They failed at MSU and Rutgers - although won SU vs the Scarlet Knights. Highly unlikely the weak run game of Maryland will put a dent in the Wolverines' tough run stop unit. Sure, RB Blake Corum is most likely out, but Hassan Haskins is picking up the slack. He's a complete back that can block, catch and rush (985 yards). And Harbaugh finally has a QB McNamara who is an efficient passer (12 TD/2 INT/63% completions). On the other hand, Terps' defense allowing a generous 31.4 PPG. And offensively, QB Tagovailoa should continue to struggle vs the fierce Wolverines' pass rush; moreover, because he's already without his top 2 receivers Demus and Jeshaun Jones, and now F Marcus Fleming. MD 0-8 ATS as a dog of more than 14 points vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Michigan has won and covered 5 straight in this series - most in route fashion. Michigan is 5-0 ATS off back-to-back SU wins vs an opponent with revenge off SU/ATS loss. Michigan the call. |
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11-20-21 | Minnesota -7 v. Indiana | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
Minnesota/Indiana 3:30: Indiana reeling on an 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS slide in the Big Ten. Just can't get an offense (121st) generated and down to 3rd string signal caller Fr McCulley in his 4th straight start. Minnesota has a solid defense (#7 in nation in total defense) and should keep the Hoosiers' pedestrian attack in check. On the other hand, the physical offensive line of the Gophers should eventually wear down the Hoosiers' tired defense; after all, Minnesota has grinded out 205.5 YPG despite losing their top two running backs. We'll look for veteran signal caller Tanner Morgan to get it together today. Gophers are 21-5 ATS off an ATS loss, 12-3 ATS on the road and 4-1 ATS as road chalk. Minnesota the call. |
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11-18-21 | Patriots -6.5 v. Falcons | 25-0 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show | |
Patriots/Falcons 8:20: Statistically, Falcons sport a solid mark on Thursday but Patriots cancel that out with a 5-1 ATS mark on Thursday as a .500 or greater team vs a non division opponent. Patriots are actually 8-1 SU/ATS all time as favorites of fewer than 7 points vs the NFC South. Falcons' defense has been sketchy most of the year under Pees (former Belichick disciple). They allow 48% conversions on 3rd down, have trouble getting to QB (1.2 sacks per game), and are 31st in the NFL in scoring defense (29.2 PPG). That won't cut it vs a surging NE offense with a physical offensive line that's beating defensive fronts to the punch with a running game led by Damien Harris (probable) and the emergence of QB Mac Jones who has been outstanding during NE's winning run. On the other hand, Falcons' offense doesn't have the weaponry to put a significant dent in the Patriots' defense. Falcons, already without Calvin Ridley (personal), most likely won' have Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) ready to go on a short week. And Belichick is the master of taking away the strength of a team's offense in which for Atlanta is TE Kyle Pitts. With the Falcons' pedestrian run game (29th in league with 82.9 YPG) not clicking, I don't see Atlanta visiting the end zone on the Patriots' #2 scoring defense in the NFL. We'll lay the near TD here. |
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11-17-21 | Central Michigan -1 v. Ball State | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
Central Michigan/Ball State 7:00: Much on the line for both teams: Ball State looking to be bowl eligible while CM looking to win the MAC West - providing NIU loses last 2 games. My money on CM. The Chippewas looking to avenge last year's loss. And the Chippewas have the coaching and the personnel to do it. They'll lean on Lew Nichols III running the rock who has averaged a ridiculous 178 YPG over the last 5 games. Look for the vulnerable Ball State defense, which has given up explosive plays recently, to get gashed on the run; consequently, efficient QB Richardson (19/2 TD/INT) has the explosive receiving weapons to add to yards and points. On the other hand, Ball State not explosive offensively but eat up yardage. Chippewas improving in getting stops when needed. CM off 2 impressive conference wins and have won their last 2 conference road games. Ball State lost their last 2 home conference games and coming off a disappointing loss at NIU. Balls State 2-5 ATS last 5 at home and just 1-5 in November. Moreover, Cards 0-5 ATS last 5 Wednesday games. On the other hand, CM sports a 14-2-1 ATS mark on Wednesday, 10-2 ATS after scoring 40+ and 23-9 ATS in November. With the road team 5-0 ATS in this series, we'll look for sweet revenge for the Chippewas. |
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11-16-21 | Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan +5.5 | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show | |
Western Michigan/Eastern Michigan 7:30: Was on the opposite side of Eastern Michigan last week and delivered with Ohio U. Tonight, I'm getting on the Eagles as a home dog. Eagles' QB Ben Bryant is every bit as good as WM's Eleby. Bryant actually posts better numbers at 69.7% completions and has thrown for 300+ in 3 of last 4 games. WM does have good receivers in Moore, Hall and Crooms. Eagles' defense, which has trouble stopping the run, does sport a pretty good secondary and can create turnovers. Eagles are +1 in turnover margin while the Broncos are -1. Eastern has covered 3 straight in this series including last year's 53-42 win in Kalamazoo. The last 4 matchups were decided by 7 points or fewer. Eagles 22-9 ATS off a SU loss and 19-9 ATS vs team above .500. WM, coming off a narrow victory over 23' point dog Akron last week, just 6-15-1 ATS off a SU win, 2-5 as road chalk, and 1-7-1 ATS in conference games. We'll gladly take Chris Creighton's Eagles which are a sweet 12-1 ATS as a dog of more than 4 points vs a .500 team coming off a SU win. |
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11-14-21 | Eagles v. Broncos -1.5 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
Eagles/Broncos 4:25: All over the Broncos last week and staying on them here. Eagles coming off a loss at home to the Chargers and now have to travel mile high to Denver. Broncos feeling good about themselves after blasting the Cowboys in Dallas last week. Broncos' Fangio a sweet 12-1 ATS vs non-division foes off non-division game, and they're 8-0 ATS vs a less than .500 foe off a SU loss. Broncos 4-1 ATS last 5 in this series. Broncos should add C Pat Surtain (knee) back in the lineup; moreover, TE Noah Fant is activated off the Covid19 list - a big addition considering Tim Patrick (knee) is questionable. Denver's defense (#2 in points allowed) keeps them in games. And unlike last year when Drew Lock would throw an interception late to cost them a close game, Teddy Bridgewater does a nice job of managing the clock and making plays. Eagles are about a year away from closing out games on the winning end and we're staying on the Broncos here. |
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11-14-21 | Vikings +3 v. Chargers | 27-20 | Win | 104 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
Vikings/Chargers 4:05: Vikings are a solid road team and dangerous dog. We'll grab them here. Dalvin Cook is reasonably healthy for this time of year and should find holes in a LA run stop unit that is yielding (162 YPG) dead last in the league. Underrated QB Cousins should work well off the play action. His targets - Jefferson and Thielen hard to stop. On the other hand, Herbert and company tear it up offensively. And sure, S Harrison is out and that is a concern but Minnesota has shown that they can get after the QB this year (3.4 sacks per game). Zimmer a sweet 11-2 ATS off back to back SU losses vs a non division foe. Minnesota has covered there last 3 on the road and have covered 4 straight in this series. Minnesota the call. |
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11-14-21 | Jaguars v. Colts -10 | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
Jacksonville/Indianapolis 1:00: Division game in which Jacksonville has dominated the series to the tune of 9-1 ATS. Thought this line, however, would be shifted higher to the Colts. Last two games in Indianapolis had the Colts beating them SU by 20 and 14, respectively with the ATS money going to Jacksonville. The Jaguars, of course, coming off the monster upset of Buffalo but unlikely to follow up here. Buffalo played sloppy football with 12 penalties accumulating 118 yards. Colts are a disciplined offense under Reich. And unlike Buffalo, should be able to get the run game going with Jonathan Taylor (821 rushing yards/8 TDs). And with vertical threat T.Y. Hilton (concussion) back on the field, the Colts should continue to roll offensively. And the Colts, who are well rested off last Thursday's win, should be able to clean up secondary issues against the 31st ranked offense in terms of points scored (16.5 PPG). Reich a sweet 10-2 ATS as a favorite vs an opponent off a SU win. We'll roll with Indy. |
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11-13-21 | Nevada +3 v. San Diego State | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
Nevada/San Diego State 10:30pm: Trouble spot for SDS coming off a narrow win at Hawaii. Their most valuable weapon lately has been their punter - Araiza - who boomed a 79 yard punt last week. The Aztecs' offense ranks 113th nationally. The jet lagged Aztecs will host Nevada, who've covered three straight in this series. Nevada sports a strong pass game under Carson Strong. He's thrown for over 3000 yards, with a 25 TD passes and 7 INTs. He's completed nearly 71% of his passes. Sure, SDS has a stellar defense but the defense and their punter can only do so much. Nevada gets after the QB (3.7 sacks per game) and makes plays in the secondary; as a matter of fact, Nevada has had two scores defensively in each of their last two games. SDS fell to Nevada last year but just 1-9 ATS as a favorite with revenge vs a .500 or greater opponent. Nevada the call. |
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11-13-21 | Minnesota +4.5 v. Iowa | Top | 22-27 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Minnesota/Iowa 3:30: After two straight losses, Iowa slugged by Northwestern last week. Iowa's defense great but their offense is sluggish (123rd in nation). Lurking in the shadows are the Gophers who got beat by Illinois as a 14' point favorite. I wouldn't put it past HC Fleck to be looking ahead to this game. One year ago today, Iowa blasted the Gophers 35-7. Big revenge here and we'll grab them. Minnesota is 11-0 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite. They're 6-1 ATS on the road vs conference foes. Minnesota doesn't have an explosive offense but a potent run game behind a dominant offensive line. The Gophers lost their top running backs including Potts yet still control the 21st ground game in the nation with 208 YPG. Backups Thomas and Irving doing a solid job. QB Tanner Morgan is a veteran QB that's had a rough stretch. Look for him to show up to play today. On the other hand, as of now Iowa has to go with backup QB Padilla who will make his first career start in place of injured Petras (shoulder). Padilla did a solid job against the mediocre Northwestern defense but Minnesota controls the #7 defense in the nation and has a formidable front that can pressure QBs. Hawkeyes just 0-5 ATS after scoring less than 20 points. We'll row the boat with Fleck and his Gophers. |
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