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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-13-21 | East Carolina +5.5 v. Memphis | 30-29 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
East Carolina/Memphis Noon: Pirates on a 6-1 ATS run including 5 straight covers. Pirates have a much better run game than their counterpart and play better defense. EC's RB Keaton Mitchell is a 1000+ rusher who can eat grass and run clock against a suspect Memphis defense. ECU defense no lockdown unit but can make plays. The opportunistic Pirates forced 12 turnovers on the year. The Tigers' secondary has had trouble. ECU's QB Ahlers not great but respectable when the run game is going behind Mitchell. Ahlers completes at 61% and threw 14 TD passes. Memphis just 4-11 ATS in conference play and 4-9 ATS as chalk. They're just 2-4 SU/ATS since upsetting Miss State back on September 18th. They're coming off a big win over SMU and we're fading them against the more consistent Pirates. East Carolina the call. |
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11-13-21 | Mississippi State +5.5 v. Auburn | 43-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Mississippi State/Auburn Noon: Mississippi State coming off a tough last second loss but cover at Arkansas last week. Bulldogs have covered 3 straight and 4 of their last 5. They're looking to avenge last year's 24-10 home loss. On the other hand, Auburn is coming off a sluggish performance at Texas A&M where all they could generate is a field goal. Auburn a poor 1-7 ATS after scoring less than 10 points. Now they have to face a Top 20 defense of Miss State. Bulldogs play well on the road (5-1 ATS and 4-0 ATS as a road dog). And in their losses, the Bulldogs lost 3 of 4 by 3 points or less. Auburn doesn't present a team with explosive plays which gives a fundamentally sound defense of Miss State the ability to stay in this game. Mississippi State air raid offense led by QB Will Rogers are in the top of the SEC in controlling clock. We'll grab the points with the road team. |
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11-12-21 | Wyoming +14 v. Boise State | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show | |
Wyoming/Boise State 9:00: Boise appears to be heating up on a 2-0 SU/ATS tear but not sold on them here. Wyoming has a veteran team that traded blow for blow last season in a season ending cover. Wyoming has covered 5 of the last 6 in this series including 3 straight in Boise. Yes, worried about the Wyoming offense which has been stuck in a funk for most of the season until the last two weeks when they finally got their run game going with RB Valladay. He ran roughshod over a pretty good Colorado State defense (25th nationally in total yards allowed). Wyoming's game rests in the hands of their defense (Top 20 nationally and very good against the pass #4). Boise has failed to cover in their last 3 at home and haven't covered three straight all season. Wyoming strong on Fridays (5-0 ATS) and we'll take the two touchdowns. |
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11-11-21 | Ravens -7.5 v. Dolphins | 10-22 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
Ravens/Miami 8:20: We have to be leery of TD+ favorites at this stage of the season; after all, dogs have been covering cross the board over the last week. However, hard to go with a Miami team in the bottom tier on both sides of the ball. Moreover, Baltimore has dominated this series to the tune of 9-0 ATS including the 59-10 whitewash in Miami in 2019. Baltimore's QB Jackson, who's improving dramatically on his passing game, should have his full receiving arsenal now that Sammy Watkins is good to go. And RBs Freeman and Bell are turning back the clock in run production off a solid game vs Minnesota. As for Miami, Tua has a fractured middle finger and going to be difficult to spin the ball. Brissett should get the nod. He does have a few good targets in TE Gesicki and WR Waddle; however, run game ranks last in the NFL and that should be trouble vs the aggressive defense DC Martindale employs. We'll lay the points but tread lightly. |
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11-09-21 | Ohio +6 v. Eastern Michigan | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show | |
Ohio/Eastern Michigan 8:00: Ohio U has been a consistent winner under 17th year HC Frank Solich. Bobcats have had a rough year (2-7 SU) but have been in virtually every game this season in the MAC. Currently on a 4-1 ATS run and off a huge conference win over Miami OH. They have a solid run game behind versatile RB Tuggle (8 TDs) and QB Rourke (69/9% completions) manages the game well. He's coming off a strong game vs Miaim OH in which he threw 3 TD passes. EM has another solid year under HC Creighton at 6-3 but I don't like them in this spot. EM a money burning 1-10 ATS at home after allow 35 or more points. Last week, they won at Toledo 52-49. The Eagles do give up points. Ohio is a dangerous dog at 6-0 ATS on the road off a SU win vs an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Moreover, they're 10-0 ATS as dogs of less than 20 points vs a .666 or greater opponent. Ohio has covered 5 of the last 6 in this series. We'll grab the Bobcats. |
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11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers -7 | 27-29 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 52 m | Show | |
Bears/Steelers 8:15: Steelers' offensive line starting to gel a bit. They helped the run game grind out over 100 yards vs a good Browns' run-stop-unit. Steelers should be able to get RB Harris going to open up the play action game for Big Ben. Roethlisberger has a healthy list of weaponry, including Johnson, Claypool, Washington and TE Freirmuth. Bears' secondary wearing thin as S Eddie Jackson nursing a hamstring. And without Khalil Mack (foot), yardage should be had. On the other hand, don't see the Bears' pedestrian offense run all over Pittsburgh's respectable run-stop-unit. Bears' QB Fields should have a decent career but he's struggling in his early stages. And even though Montgomery (Questionable) is cleared to go, Steelers' DC Butler should have his men prepared; after all, Bears' run game (#6 in NFL) fuels an offense ranked 32 in the NFL. Steelers' Tomlin 24-4 vs rookie QBs. Bears 0-4 ATS on MNF vs an opponent off SU/ATS upset win. Steelers sport a solid 14-9 ATS mark on MNF and we'll lay the TD here. |
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11-07-21 | Falcons +6 v. Saints | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
Falcons/Saints 1:00: Saints' uncertainty at QB gives way to a tightly contested division game here. Saints most likely will go with Siemian. Atlanta HC Smith actually mentored Siemian when they were together in Tennessee. We'll look for the yielding Atlanta defense to shape up today; after all, Siemian is limited in weaponry outside of versatile RB Kamara. Saints coming off big win over TB last week now face a hungry division opponent off a tough loss last week. Saints haven't played the favorite role well lately at 1-4 ATS. This is a double revenge game for Atlanta with last year's sweep. Look for the Falcons to heavily contest it today. |
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11-07-21 | Raiders v. Giants +3 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Raiders/Giants 1:00: Giants had a huge opportunity to win last Monday's game at Kansas City. A drive stalling taunting penalty cost them; nevertheless, they covered the big number for me. Today, I'm back on them. Sure, Barkley likely won't play and they've got more injury concerns on both sides of the ball; however, Daniel Jones doing a decent job managing the offense and he still has enough weaponry to keep the ball moving with TE Engram, WRs Toney and Slayton and, perhaps, Golladay (knee/hip) who would be gravy if he's good to go. Giants' defense is yielding but making plays and gives them a chance here. Raiders, of course, will be without vertical threat Ruggs (released) and will have to travel cross country in a rough spot. Raiders a dismal 1-16 ATS on the road off back-to-back wins. Sure, they're coming off a bye week; however, just 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off byes. Giants 5-1 ATS in November and 6-1 ATS after allow less than 90 yards rushing. We'll grab the points with the G-Men. |
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11-07-21 | Broncos +10 v. Cowboys | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Broncos/Cowboys 1:00: Value with the Broncos here. Sure, everything's seemingly great in Dallas nowadays as they sit atop the division, well rested and get QB Prescott back. But keep in mind there are some key injury concerns with the receiving corps: Cooper (hamstring), TE Jarwin (hip) placed on IR Wednesday, and Cee Dee Lamb (ankle). Moreover, their key lineman - LT Tyron Smith - who protects the back of Prescott on pass plays - is OUT. Bridgewater (23-5 ATS on the road) has enough weaponry - Gordon, Jeudy, Sutton - to make plays behind a patchwork but scrappy offensive line. And defensive minded Fangio gets the most out of his defensive personnel. Fangio and the Broncos are 11-1 ATS vs non-division foes off non-division games. Cowboys just 3-7 ATS as non-conference home favorites of 10 or less. We'll take the double digits. |
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11-07-21 | Bills -14.5 v. Jaguars | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Bills/Jaguars 1:00: Hard to imagine the Jaguars, which are in the bottom tier of most categories offensively and defensively, hanging with the Bills which are in the top tier offensively and defensively. Jaguars have been turnover laden offensively and their top yardage producer - RB Robinson is battling a heel injury. Defensively, Jaguars have just 11 sacks on the year and should have problems containing QB Josh Allen for 4 quarters; after all, besides a wealth of riches at his disposal: Diggs, Singletary, Beasley, Sanders, he may have TE Knox back for this one as well. Buffalo a good November team (9-1 ATS) and do well in Jacksonville (4-1 ATS). We'll roll with Buffalo. |
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11-06-21 | Marshall -1 v. Florida Atlantic | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
Marshall/Fla Atlantic 6:00: Fla Atlantic puts its 12 game win streak on the line today vs a team that was the last to beat them in FAU Stadium back on October 18, 2019. And the Thundering Herd are 3-0 SU in their last 3 games vs the Owls. Herd a sweet 8-1 ATS on the road vs an opponent with revenge and we'll stay on them here. Marshall has a solid run game behind 1000 yard rusher Rasheen Ali in the nation's #8 ranked offense. On the other hand, FAU does have Mia Fla QB transfer Perry. However, he's been one of the most sacked QBs in the nation and Marshall is a sack producing machine defensively - 28 on the year - 8th nationally. Owls have historically not played the home dog role well at 1-7 ATS. We'll look for Marshall to deliver again. |
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11-06-21 | Mississippi State +5 v. Arkansas | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
Mississippi State/Arkansas 4:00: Mississippi State starting to roll on a 3-1 SU/ATS tear after beating down Kentucky last week. In that game, QB Will Rogers completed a near flawless 92.3% of his passes vs a pretty solid Kentucky defense. Arkansas' defense pretty good too; however, Miss State spreads the field and stresses secondaries. The Bulldogs have 6 players with 26 or more receptions. On the other hand, Mississippi State has a top 5 run stop unit in the country and has the horses to effectively counter Arkansas' power run game. The Bulldogs control a Top 20 defense and create turnovers (#20 nationally). Arkansas is coming off a bye week after blowing out subdivision lightweight Arkansas-Pine Bluff - their fist win since upsetting Texas A&M in late September. Mississippi State a perfect 7-0 ATS vs an opponent off a bye and 3-1 ATS in this series at Arkansas. We'll look for the Bulldogs to avenge last year's 21-14 home loss. Mississippi State the call. |
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11-06-21 | UL-Monroe +3.5 v. Texas State | 19-27 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 8 m | Show | |
UL-Monroe/Texas State 3:00: On paper, UL-Monroe is football ugly. However, dramatic improvement from a season ago when they didn't win a game and was in the bottom tier of virtually every statistical category on both sides of the ball. In came Terry Bowden as the new HC who brought in Rich Rodriquez as his OC; consequently, they've won 4 games including two huge upsets - beating Liberty outright as a 32' point dog and Troy as a 23' point dog. They're years away from competing with the big boys but can compete with the bottom feeders of the Sun Belt. Texas State is such an opponent. They're 2-6 SU, turnover laden offensively and poor defensively. Sure, ULM is every bit as bad statistically, however, they don't turn over the ball as much and can make plays defensively. ULM has a ball hawking secondary that has 9 INTs on the year including 2 going for TDs. With Texas State a poor 1-9-1 ATS as a home favorite above 1 point, we'll grab the Warhawks in a revenge mode after last year's home loss. |
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11-06-21 | Pittsburgh -21 v. Duke | 54-29 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh/Duke Noon: Duke is coming off back-to-back losses in which they were outscored 93-7. Offense has a few playmakers with RB Durant (973 rushing yards) and QB Holmberg (1860 passing yards/69% comp) yet they can't get it in the end zone (24.5 PPG - 92nd nationally). The real problem for the Blue Devils is defensively. They can't stop anybody. Devils allowing 470 yards per game and 33 PPG (bottom tier nationally). Their secondary is in shambles and that doesn't bode well vs Heisman contender Cody Pickett. He's been tearing it up consistently this season throwing for nearly 3000 yards / 26 TDs/ 3 INTs. Pitt was coming off a huge win against Clemson before getting bumped off by Mia Fla last week. Defensive minded Narduzzi puts emphasis on defensive effort and didn't like the 38 points wrung up on them. Look for Narduzzi's bunch to respond well here; after all, they're 4-0 ATS after allowing more than 280 yards passing yards and a perfect 7-0 ATS after allowing more than 35 points. Duke won't be able to trade points with the #5 offense in the nation. We'll look for Pitt to go to 6-0 ATS in this series. |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts -10 | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 20 h 53 m | Show | |
Jets/Colts 8:20: QB Mike White became a cult hero in NY on Sunday tossing for 405 yards, 3 TDs in his first NFL start; however, he's not going to sneak up on the Colts tonight. He did throw 2 INTs on Sunday to add to the Jets 15 turnovers on the year. Colts control an opportunistic defense (#1 in NFL capturing turnovers). The ruckus Indianapolis crowd should make Mike White uncomfortable, along with a DeForest Buckner and company, in his first NFL road start. Jets haven't been a good road team (15-33-3 ATS as a traveler) going 14-33 ATS in their last 47 games as a road dog. The Colts are coming off a devastating loss to the Titans but the Colts are a sweet 8-0 ATS off a SU favorite loss. Reich and Colts also sport a 10-2 ATS mark as a favorite vs a foe off a SU win. Colts' offense should percolate against a Jets' defense that allows a generous 29.4 PPG. Colts' QB Wentz won't have Hilton but has explosive weaponry RB Jonathon Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. to add to explosive plays vs the yielding Jets' defense. We'll lay the wood here with Indy. |
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11-02-21 | Ball State v. Akron +20.5 | 31-25 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show | |
Ball State/Akron 7:00: Akron clearly not a contender in the MAC yet for they're in a rebuilding stage in Tom Arth's third year as head coach. Akron freshman played 32% of the snaps last season (2nd in the nation). With a bit more maturity, Zips have covered 2 of their last 3 games. And they've had to take on the likes of Auburn and Ohio State in September. Ball State is surely not that caliber and Akron should be competitive. Ball State's offense is 112th in the nation, right there with Akron's. Akron's defense not good but has 8 takeaways on the year with a few good playmakers. Offensively, Akron does have a few playmakers as well, including Konata Mumpfield (caught TD pass vs OSU) who has nearly 500 yards in reception yards and 6 TDs. And Akron may have red shirt senior Kato Nelson back at QB tonight. If not, Irons (66% completions) and Zach Gibson (6 TD/0 INTs) can step in . Akron got soundly beaten at home vs Buffalo last week. Zips 4-0 ATS in its last 4 off a double digit loss at home. |
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11-01-21 | Giants +10.5 v. Chiefs | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
Giants/Chiefs 8:15: Chiefs have to address defensive issues - allowing 29 PPG and 406 YPG - both at the bottom tier of the league. Giants clearly no offensive juggernaut but do get a few more playmakers back this week in Toney and Shepard. And Daniel Jones is protecting the ball better this season and starting to connect with his TE Engram. On the other hand, Mahomes is having trouble protecting the ball with 9 INTs and 2 fumbles. Giants bring an aggressive front line led by Leonard Williams (sacks in 3 of last 4 games). Giants have done some good work on the road with an outstanding 22-7 ATS mark as a road dog. KC sports a money burning 4-13 ATS mark as chalk. We'll look for NY to hang around. Take the double digits. |
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10-31-21 | Jaguars v. Seahawks -3.5 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
Jaguars/Seahawks 4:05: Thought this line would be tilting more on the favorite side of Seattle. I do realize Jaguars are coming off a bye week while Seattle is on a short week. And I also realize Geno Smith is a career backup for a clear cut reason, but he still has a decent surrounding cast of players. And going against a soft Jaguars defense will feel great compared to the formidable unit (New Orleans) Seattle faced Monday. Seattle desperately needs a win here going into their bye week. Then there may be better days ahead as the quick healing Russell Wilson most likely will be back. Carroll should keep his men focused here; after all, he's 14-3 ATS off back-to-back SU losses. Seattle the call. |
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10-31-21 | Panthers +3 v. Falcons | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Panthers/Falcons 1:00: Had the Falcons (-1') last week in a narrow win over Miami. What appeared to be a solid cover late in the game turned out to be a sweat down the stretch because of a shaky defense (#30 scoring defense allowing 29.6 PPG). Today, I'm fading the Falcons who appear to be gaining momentum; a closer look, however, reveals the their light schedule enabling them to get back into contention; after all, they've taken on the last four teams going a combined 6-21! Giants, Washington, Jets and Dolphins not exactly murderer's row of the NFL. And they were outgained in 3 of those last 4 games. Sure, Carolina is struggling offensively. Rhule will figure it out. He's 8-2 ATS on the road. Darnold should get back in rhythm with his skill guys; after all, he's got some pretty good targets in DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, and versatile back Chuba Hubbard - who's no McCaffrey but has skill. Carolina looked crappy vs an underrated Giants' defense last week; today, Carolina delivers. Panthers 21-6 ATS as a road dog off a SU favorite loss. |
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10-31-21 | Dolphins v. Bills -14 | 11-26 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Bills 1:00: We won't let the number scare us. Bills coming off disappointing loss to Tennessee on the 18th. They had an additional week to stew over that loss and get healthier. Bills are at the top of the league on both sides of the ball whereas the Dolphins are at the bottom tier of the NFL on both sides of the ball. Bills 10-2 ATS with rest off SU loss. Bills roll. |
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10-31-21 | Titans +2.5 v. Colts | 34-31 | Win | 111 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Titans/Colts 1:00: Hard to get off the Titans' bandwagon now. They've knocked off top tier teams of Buffalo and Kansas City and already control a win at home vs Indianapolis in Week 3. Tennessee is 3-1 ATS at Indy. King Henry continues to find ways to beat teams and Tannehill has the play action game working. Moreover, the Titans' defense has shaped into a solid unit - making big time plays when needed. Titans 5-2 ATS as a road dog while Indianapolis is a mere 2-5 ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite. Tennessee the call. |
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10-30-21 | Georgia -14 v. Florida | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
Georgia/Florida 3:30: Georgia looking to avenge last year's defeat. We'll lay the points here; after all, Georgia has the #1 defense in college football allowing a measly 6.6 PPG. With Florida's uncertainty at QB Richardson and inconsistent starter Emory Jones, could be trouble. On the other hand, Florida's defense was gashed to the tune of 321 yards on 45 attempts in their loss to LSU on the 16th. The Gators' repeatedly went over blocks on LSU's counters to give up multiple explosive plays. Georgia has a sound run game and QB Bennett has filled in well for JT Daniels. Gators 0-5 ATS as a dog vs opponent with revenge. Georgia rolls. |
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10-30-21 | Purdue +7.5 v. Nebraska | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
Purdue/Nebraska 3:30: Purdue covered the last 3 at Nebraska and we'll grab the points again here. Purdue lost to the Cornhuskers at home last year. 'Huskers a mere 1-9 ATS as home favorites of less than 14 points vs opponent with revenge. Take the points. |
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10-30-21 | Michigan v. Michigan State +4 | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Michigan/Michigan State Noon: Michigan's had trouble with the Spartans. They're 2-9 ATS last 11 in this series. And away from the Big House, the Wolves are a money burning 1-6 ATS at East Lansing. Not a fan of laying points with that scenario. Michigan State has a bruising run game with Kenneth Walker III (997 Yards). And QB Payton Thorne (15 TD/4 INT/61% COMP) manages the game well. And the Spartans are no softie vs power run teams. We'll look for the Spartans to deliver here. |
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10-30-21 | Texas v. Baylor -2.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Texas/Baylor Noon: Both teams well rested coming off byes; however, Bears in better shape sitting at 6-1 while Texas has dropped their last two conference games and sitting at 4-3. Texas has been able to put points on the board with its explosive offense; however, they're unable to finish games because of a leaky defense. They've given up nearly 430 YPG and nearly 30 PPG. Baylor, on the other hand, continues its defensive success giving up nearly 100 YPG less than the Longhorns. Baylor's new offensive coordinator - Grimes - bestowed an offense to the Bears this season; something they lacked considerably last year under Fedora. The Bears' RB Abram Smith is coming off a 188 yard rushing game vs BYU. And they're in good hands with QB Bohanon (12 TD passes/1 INT with a 66% completion percentage. Baylor looking to avenge last year's 27-16 loss should get it done. Longhorns 3-7-1 ATS last 11 meetings. Baylor the call. |
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10-28-21 | Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
Packers/Cardinals 8:20: Close to going on Cardinals here; after all, they're undefeated, have a wealth of riches at the disposal of Kyler Murray, including recently picked up TE Ertz. And they do have the #4 ranked defense; however, Arizona has disappointed as a home favorite (9-20 ATS) routinely. And under the Thursday Night Lights, the Cardinals are 1-5 ATS vs .500 opposition. Moreover, Cards are 0-5 ATS off a double-digit ATS win vs a less than .700 non-division opponent. As for the Packers, sure, they're down a few receivers including QB Rodgers' top target Adams and another key wideout in Lazard - both on Covid 19 protocol. There is a possibility Adams could be on the field providing he has two negative tests prior to kickoff. If he's not available, Rodgers still has versatile RB Aaron Jones behind a relative healthy offensive line to dent a mediocre run-stop-unit (18th in NFL) of Arizona which will not have J.J. Watt (out). There's also quality receivers in veteran Randall Cobb, TEs Tonyan and Mercedes Lewis. And keep in mind that Aaron Rodgers is 6-0 SU without the services of Davante Adams. Defensively, GB is much better than in years past under the leadership of DC Joe Barry. Barry (out Covid19 list) went over the defensive plan via Zoom meetings and is well in hand with his assistants. Packers 5-1 ATS on Thursdays vs an opponent off a SU win. We'll back the Pack! |
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10-25-21 | Saints v. Seahawks +4 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
TAKE SEATTLE (+4): Saints/Seahawks 8:15: Saints coming off a bye week but still have injuries, especially receiving corps where they're thin. Seahawks defense shaky under Norton Jr. but have playmakers in secondary with safeties Diggs and Adams who can make plays. Saints at the bottom tier in NFL in pass game so Carroll will surely have good defensive plan to disrupt error prone QB Winston. On the other side of the ball, Seattle's offensive line is relatively healthy and Penny comes off the IR. He may have a big game to help Geno Smith out. Smith has some great targets in Metcalf, Lockett and Swain. We won't count the Seahawks out even without Wilson. Pete Carroll usually finds ways to win these games; after all, he's 13-2 ATS off back-to-back SU losses. Moreover, on MNF, Seattle is a sweet 7-1 ATS as a home dog, 5-0 ATS off back-to-back SU losses! Seattle the call. |
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10-24-21 | Colts +4 v. 49ers | 30-18 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
Colts/49ers 8:20: Value with a Colts team that's on a 3-0 ATS run. Indy has covered in their last 3 trips to San Francisco. Wentz is now starting to be the QB Indianapolis thought he could be. Under his old tutor with Phily, now Colts' HC Reich has Wentz playing well. Tonight, he won't have vertical threat - Hilton (out); however, LG Quenton Nelson is good to go. That's good news for the the run game led by Jonathon Taylor (472 yards rushing w/ 4 TDs). And there is Pittman Jr., Pascal and RB Hines who are having success in the improving Colts' offense. 49ers not having success closing out games. And they're a ridiculous 0-14 ATS as a home favorite vs less than .500 opponent. Colts the call. |
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10-24-21 | Eagles +3 v. Raiders | 22-33 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
Eagles/Raiders 4:05: Eagles had a few more prep days for this and should make the best of it. Dog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings while the road team is 4-1 ATS. Raiders have yet to get their run game established. Eagles have not been good against the run and outrushed in 4 of 6 games. But Raiders run game produces just under 80 yards a game. Eagles do play the pass well and can pressure the QB with limited blitzing. On the other hand, Eagles' offense overdue to get cooking. And surely Philadelphia plays better on the road. We'll grab the Eagles. |
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10-24-21 | Bengals +6.5 v. Ravens | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Bengals/Ravens 1:00: Baltimore has blown out Cincinnati in the last 3 meetings but look for this one to be competitive. Bengals have been in every game this season and look to take over first place the AFC North with a win here. Thanks to a much improved defense, the Bengals are no longer a pushover. And the Burrow - Chase connection is tough to stop when Mixon is running the rock well. Baltimore has been suspect in the secondary (26th in the NFL) because of injuries. Bengals have covered 3 of their last 4 at Baltimore and we'll ride them here. |
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10-24-21 | Falcons -1.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Falcons/Dolphins 1:00: Scheduling advantage for the Falcons here. Both of these teams played in London recently; however, Falcons played there on the 10th and had a bye week while Miami played there last week. Falcons are relatively healthy and veteran QB Ryan is getting in good rhythm with #1 draft choice TE Pitts. On the other hand, Miami ranks at the bottom tier of the league in most categories offensively and defensively. Miami has regressed significantly from a year ago and key players (C Xavien Howard / WR Parker) are limited in practice. I'm going to back the well rested Falcons with the better QB and defense. |
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10-23-21 | West Virginia +4.5 v. TCU | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show | |
10-23-21 | Maryland v. Minnesota -4 | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Maryland/Minnesota 3:30: Maryland got the best of Minnesota last year at home in a 45-44 OT win. Look for Minnesota to return the favor on their home field. Since Minnesota's upset loss in Week 4 to lightweight Bowling Green, they've rattled off 2 impressive conference wins over Purdue and Nebraska. Meanwhile, QB Tagovailoa and Maryland flamed out getting blown out by Iowa and Ohio State. They did have a bye week but don't think it will help. Terrapins 1-10 ATS as dogs with rest. "Row the boat" with Minnesota. |
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10-23-21 | Wisconsin v. Purdue +3.5 | 30-13 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
Wisconsin/Purdue 3:00: Jeff Brohm doing a solid job building Purdue. Defense is playing well and despite the revolving QBs, Purdue has held onto the ball well (just 2 turnovers) and possess a solid pass game. On the other hand, Wisconsin QB Mertz struggling (2 TD/7 INT) and it's effecting the offense production. Sure, Wisconsin has virtually owned this series but Purdue is a sweet 9-0 ATS with revenge off double-digit AGTS win vs less than .600 opponent. We backed Purdue last week as my Top Play and hit big over Iowa; today, we'll grab the points again. |
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10-22-21 | Memphis v. Central Florida +2.5 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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10-21-21 | Broncos +2 v. Browns | 14-17 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
Broncos/Browns 8:20: Browns' got offensive line injuries, top running backs - Chubb (calf), Hunt (calf) - out and QB Mayfield (shoulder) out. Surely the defensively stout Broncos, also eaten by the injury bug to their linebacker corps, are hungry to shut down the Browns' struggling offense. Browns' offense is fueled by their outstanding run game behind Chubb and Hunt. Replacement RB E'Ernest Johnson respectable in 38 career games but not the Pro Bowl caliber of the aforementioned. And behind a patchwork offensive line, it will be difficult for QB Keenum to get the play action going. Browns a money burning 4-26 ATS after running for less than 90 yards in previous game. On the other hand, look for QB Bridgewater (foot) to play. And star WR Jeudy off the IR and practicing. Should be good to go. Browns' defense is solid despite having a few bad games vs formidable offenses. Broncos' offense surely not explosive but can put together sustainable drives. Denver's Fangio a sweet 11-1 ATS vs non division foe off a non division game. And Fangio is a sweet 9-1 ATS off a division game. Broncos are 13-6 SU on Thursday and should deliver. |
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10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans +6 | 31-34 | Win | 105 | 19 h 42 m | Show | |
Buffalo/Tennessee 8:15: Buffalo established itself as the class of the AFC with a resounding win over KC last week. And their defense is much more formidable than last year's. They are at the top of the NFL in multiple categories. But hold everything. Tennessee is by far the best running team they face. Derek Henry ran roughshod over them last year en route to a 42-16 demolition. Tennessee has the #2 rushing team in the NFL at 168 YPG. And Julio Jones surely offers an additional threat to compliment A.J. Brown (questionable). Titans' defense yielding but can make stops at key times in games. Tannehill and company should be able to stay in this one. On MNF, Tennessee is 16-3 ATS as a dog vs an opponent off SU/ATS wins. Buffalo on MNF, however, just 2-7 ATS off back to back SU wins. We'll grab the points here. |
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10-17-21 | Seahawks +5.5 v. Steelers | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
Seattle/Pittsburgh 8:20: I won't discount the Seahawks and Pete Carroll. They're 33-15-4 ATS off a SU loss and 12-5 ATS as a dog. Sure, defense is sluggish and Russell Wilson is on the IR. Nevertheless, Seattle pulled off some nice extended drives under Geno Smith. And the Seahawks manage to make necessary stops when needed. Seahawks should rally behind Geno Smith as he puts together a performance vs his former team. Seahawks' defense will have one less weapon to worry about as Smith-Schuster went down with season ending shoulder injury last week. Steelers do not play the favorite role well at 0-6 ATS. And remember that Pete Carroll remains the Prime Time TV king at 10-3 ATS. Seattle the call. |
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10-17-21 | Raiders v. Broncos -4 | 34-24 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
Raiders/Broncos 4:25: Raiders in a disarray after the demise of Gruden. Interim HC Bisaccia will have his work cut out for him keeping LV focused. Raiders' not getting it done offensively: run game shoddy (78 YPG) and just 19 PPG. Denver defense under Fangio rock solid #2 in points allowed at 15.2 PPG. On the other hand, Broncos no offensive juggernaut themselves but Bridgewater has been good managing the offense (7 TD/1 INT) and Melvin Gordon III should be good to go behind a solid offensive line. Raiders 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 1-6 ATS after rushing for less than 90 YPG. Fangio looking for double revenge from last year's Raiders' sweep. We'll lay the points. |
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10-17-21 | Vikings v. Panthers +2.5 | 34-28 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Vikings/Panthers 1:00: Carolina, coming off two tough losses, should get it together today. They're seeking to avenge last year's 28-27 loss to the Vikings. Panthers' Matt Rhule 4-0 ATS off SU/ATS loss w/ revenge. Vikings, a mid-level defense and solid producing offense - just can't put it consistently in the end zone (20th in points scored). Carolina defense is stingy allowing just 17.4 PPG (#3 in NFL). And offensively, Darnold due to get back on track. He has good skill weapons in Moore, Anderson and McCaffery's (IR) replacement - RB Chuba Hubbard. Minnesota not a good favorite at 0-7 ATS and 0-4 ATS off a SU win. Carolina the call. |
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10-17-21 | Dolphins v. Jaguars +3 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Jaguars 9:30: This one in London. Jaguars eager to break their 20 game losing streak and it should come here. Miami not the defense they were last year and it gets worse. Top corner Xavien Howard is out for the 30th ranked defense in total yards and points allowed. Should allow Lawrence to settle in with his weaponry. And keep in mind that RB James Robinson is running the rock (5.8 YPC) to more pressure off of Lawrence. As for the Miami offense, they're struggling. Tua should be back at the controls but his weaponry is limited with explosive vertical threats Parker and Fuller out. Jaguars the call. |
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10-16-21 | Air Force +3.5 v. Boise State | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
Air Force/Boise State 9:00: Boise State coming off a huge win over BYU. Should see trouble here. Boise State defense has had difficulty stopping the run - allowing 180 YPG (98th nationally). That bodes trouble against the #1 run team in the nation. AF triple option working its magic this year. On the other hand, AF puts a Top 10 defense on the field to go up against an offense that doesn't have the same bite it did in recent years under former Boise State head coaches Harsin and Peterson. Under Avalos, the Boise run game 121st in the nation. Air Force has a solid run-stop-unit and limits explosive plays. We'll roll with AF which eats clock and keeps the chains moving. |
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10-16-21 | UCLA +1.5 v. Washington | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show | |
UCLA/Washington 8:30: We'll look for Chip Kelly's boys to work their strong run game vs the weak spots of the Washington defense. Washington defense allows nearly 180 YPG. UCLA run game is cooking behind RB Charbonnet and Brown. UCLA has the 18th ranked run game at 225 YPG. Dorian Thompson-Robinson doing a solid job in the Kelly system - 11 TD passes/2 INT. Washington, a major underachiever thus far, should continue to struggle. UCLA the call. |
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10-16-21 | Stanford v. Washington State | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
Stanford/Washington State 7:30: Stanford overdue to deliver in this series. QB Tanner McKee doing a solid job at the controls (12 TD/3 INT). We'll look for Shaw's bunch to battle back after getting worked by Arizona State last week. Washington State off two big wins but should struggle here. Rolovich just 5-25 SU in games in which his team scores fewer than 28 points. We'll look for the Stanford defense to step up their game here. |
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10-16-21 | Purdue +11.5 v. Iowa | Top | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
Purdue/Iowa 3:30: Iowa has defeated three ranked opponents and feel really good about themselves. However, lurking in the shadows is a formidable Purdue team that's had their number. Purdue HC Jeff Brohm 3-1 SU/ATS vs Iowa. Purdue has a Top 20 defense that can limit the pedestrian Iowa offensive attack. Of course, Iowa controls an opportunistic defense #1 in the country creating turnovers (16) with a ball hawking secondary. However, Purdue QB Jack Plummer has yet to throw an interception in an offense that's turned the ball over just 1 time this season. Purdue is coming off a bye with extra prep and should stay in this game. Purdue a sweet 14-0 ATS as a road dog of more than 11 points. We'll grab the points. |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles +7.5 | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show | |
Bucs/Eagles 8:20: Gladly take the TD and the Eagles here. Eagles post a strong defensive front despite the loss of Brandon Graham for the season. Javon Hargrave and Fletcher Cox lead a strong defensive front while the secondary is solid in C Darius Slay and Steven Nelson. Linebacking corps average but getting better. TB run game not the greatest (26th in NFL) so Eagles can get away with a Nickle Back to help to stall out the dangerous Tom Brady and company. Gronk (ribs) will be out again and their C Jensen struggling with a hip injury. Defensively, TB won't have one the better LBs in the NFL Lavonte David (22 tackles, 1 sack) and edge rushing beast Pierre-Paul still struggling with shoulder problem; consequently, we'll look for the Eagles' offense to be able to move the football. TB not a good road favorite at 1-4 ATS and just 2-7 SU on Thursdays. They're also just 1-5 ATS off SU win of 14 or more and 1-5 ATS in Week 6. Eagles are 5-1 ATS on Thursdays, 6-2 AGTS in Week 6 and 5-2 ATS as a home dog; moreover, Philadelphia a sweet 7-0 ATS home off a SU dog win. Eagles the call! |
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10-11-21 | Colts +7.5 v. Ravens | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
Colts/Ravens 8:15: Colts play the run well. Lamar and company ran for 110 yards last year on Indianapolis. Tonight, Ravens looking to go 43 straight games of 100+ rushing yards. Indy won't make it easy on them for they take pride as run stoppers, especially with a healthy Darius Leonard in the lineup. Indy a strong 6-1 ATS at Baltimore. They're also 6-1 ATS w/ revenge off a SU/ATS win playing on MNF. Baltimore defense has some injuries and not the lockdown unit they're used to being. Interesting stat - Week 5 Indy is 11-3 ATS while Baltimore at the opposite end of the spectrum at 4-11 ATS. We'll look for Wentz and company, despite loss of WR Hilton and C Quenton Nelson, to hang around. Indy the call. |
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10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
Bills/Chiefs 8;20: Bills, off a breakthrough year in 2020 offensively, still possess a potent offense with Josh Allen and Diggs; however, this year, their defense is much improved (#1 in multiple categories). That should make a difference tonight. Bills can make stops whereas the KC Chiefs' defense has tailed off drastically - in the bottom tier of the NFL in multiple categories. Chiefs can still win games but not covering especially in one score games - 10-2 SU but 1-10-1 ATS in that category since last season. Bills the call. |
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10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | 10-17 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
49ers/Cardinals 4:25: I was on the Cardinals (+4) last week at Los Angeles and delivered. Now it's time to get off the Cardinals, which inevitably struggle in this spot. Cardinals' Kingsbury 1-5 ATS vs a foe off a SU favorite loss. Of course, the 49ers are coming off a loss at home as a slight favorite to Seattle last week. 49ers won't have Garoppolo (calf) but Trey Lance is good to go. 49ers' run game with Mitchell and Sermon should assist Lance in moving the football vs the yielding run stop unit of Arizona (26th in NFL). Lance won't have TE Kittle (IR) but has some good targets, including Deebo Samuel to fuel the pass game. 49ers have played Arizona tough beating them in Arizona the last 2 times. Arizona a scary 0-15 ATS as a .500 or greater team at home off a division game and playing another division foe. We'll take the points. |
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10-10-21 | Browns +2.5 v. Chargers | 42-47 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Browns/Chargers 4:05: Browns sport the #1 run game in the NFL behind Chubb and Hunt which square off vs a Chargers' defense that allows 140 YPG (29th in NFL). Should allow Mayfield to work his play action game to Higgins, Peoples-Jones, Hooper and Beckham Jr. - overdue to be unleashed. On the other hand, Browns making life miserable on QBs with edge rushers' Garrett (6 sacks) and Clowney - both questionable but good to go. Browns also, however, play the run well allowing just 66.5 YPG (3rd in NFL). Browns have covered 3 straight in Los Angeles. Chargers 4-10-1 ATS as home chalk. We'll grab the Browns. |
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10-10-21 | Dolphins +10 v. Bucs | 17-45 | Loss | -102 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Bucs 1:00: Value with the underdog here. Miami has not looked good as a team since opening day win at New England. Defense has underachieved and the offense ranks at the bottom of the NFL in multiple categories. Meanwhile, TB 3-1 SU/1-3 ATS coming off big win over New England. Nevertheless, we'll look for the underachieving defense of Miami to step up. More importantly, need Miami offense to show it can move the football with Brissett the the controls. Miami 6-1 ATS after rushing for less than 90 yards per game. Miami is 7-1 ATS off a SU loss and 5-0 ATS as a road dog. TB's Arians is 1-6 ATS as a home favorite vs a non division foe and the Bucs are 0-9 ATS before a Thursday night game. Wouldn't put it past the Bucs to overlook the hapless Dolphins. Take the double digits. |
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10-09-21 | Florida State +17.5 v. North Carolina | 35-25 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
10-09-21 | SMU -13 v. Navy | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
10-09-21 | Oklahoma v. Texas +3.5 | 55-48 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 10 m | Show | |
Oklahoma/Texas Noon: Oklahoma has won (SU) 3 straight in this series, although Texas has covered 7 of the last 9. I'm going to take the field goal and a hook with a progressively improving team. The Longhorns, which lost its second game of the season to Arkansas, battled back in weeks 3, 4 and 5 with solid wins and covers against Rice, Texas Tech and TCU. Casey Thompson is managing the offense well and the defense is making stops when needed. On the other hand, Oklahoma sports a perfect 5-0 SU mark but controls a money burning 1-4 ATS mark. Spencer Rattler's stock is dropping sharply and it won't get easier today. And the Oklahoma defense clearly not impenetrable (83rd in nation) considering they've face mediocre offenses. Texas capable of trading points in this matchup and we'll look for them to hang tight and deliver. |
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10-09-21 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss -4.5 | 51-52 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
10-08-21 | Stanford +13.5 v. Arizona State | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 53 m | Show | |
10-07-21 | Rams v. Seahawks +2.5 | 26-17 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 9 m | Show | |
Rams/Seahawks 8:20: At first glance, Rams the call; after all, McVay's Rams have covered 4 of the last 5 in this series. But let's not forget Pete Carroll is the NFL Prime Time king, especially on Thursday Night with a 10-1 SU run including 9 straight. Moreover, Carroll is 12-2 ATS as a dog vs greater than .500 division opponent. Seahawks' defense is ugly on paper (last in total yards allowed) but game is not played on paper. Rams' defense seemed impenetrable after first three games but allowed Arizona to roll all over them - as I predicted Sunday. Rams 0-8 ATS on the road off double-digit SU division loss. Tonight, look for competitive game with the all dangerous home dog delivering.  |
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10-07-21 | Houston v. Tulane +7 | 40-22 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 40 m | Show | |
10-04-21 | Raiders +3 v. Chargers | 14-28 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
Raiders/Chargers 8:15: Both teams much improved from a year ago. Chargers finding ways to close out games successfully and the Raiders' defense is tremendously improved. Chargers coming off a huge division win at KC could find problems here, however. Raiders, 4-0 ATS run on MNF, possess the #1 offense in the NFL and will most likely have RB Josh Jacobs back for the first time in a few weeks. Chargers have injury concerns defensively with starting LB Kenneth Murray and RDE Justin Jones out. On the other hand, Raiders' much improved defense relatively healthy under DC Gus Bradley. And let's not forget Gus Bradley ran the Chargers' defense last year and saw a lot of QB Herbert in practices. This series has been relatively close in scoring with the dog covering 18 of the last 24 games. Road team has covered 4 of last 5. And Las Vegas covered 9 of the last 12 in Los Angeles. With the much improved defense of the Raiders and the offensive rhythm of Carr and company, we'll take the points. |
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10-03-21 | Steelers +6 v. Packers | 17-27 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
Steelers/Packers 4:25: Never count the Steelers out under Mike Tomlin. Steelers a dangerous 16-1 ATS as a dog of less than 7 points vs an above .500 team; moreover, 14-2 ATS as a road dog vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Now that TJ Watt is back in the fray, look for QB Rodgers not to have the comfort in the pocket he did the last two games. And not sold on the Packers' defense which allows nearly 28 PPG. Consequently, we'll look for Big Ben to establish some offensive rhythm despite the loss of Claypool (hamstring). Still enough weaponry to do damage with Washington, Najee Harris, Smith-Schuster, TEs Freiermuth, Ebron. GB's Lafleur just 1-6 ATS off SU/ATS non-division win vs less than .500 foe. Steelers the call. |
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10-03-21 | Seahawks +2.5 v. 49ers | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 21 h 2 m | Show |
Seahawks/49ers 4:05: Seahawks overdue to get back on the winning track; after all, QB Russell Wilson and HC Pete Carroll have not lost 3 straight in their professional career. Seattle sports a 32-15-4 ATS mark off a SU loss and 9-3 ATS as a road dog; moreover, 13-5-1 ATS vs SF. Most teams have their share of injuries but SF hit extremely hard in the defensive backfield which could factor heavy here. Seattle, which has been very productive in the first half of each game, must find ways of finishing and Carroll should figure that out this week. SF a money burner as a favorite at 5-21-1 ATS. We'll grab the Seahawks! |
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10-03-21 | Cardinals +4.5 v. Rams | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
Cardinals/Rams 4:05: Rams have owned Arizona in the McVay era but Kingsbury could be catching LA at the right time to cover. Rams, of course, coming off big win at home vs TB. It was a bruising battle while Arizona was on the road cruising by lightweight Jacksonville. Arizona is relatively healthy with a wealth of riches defensively and plenty of weaponry at QB Kyler Murray's disposal. Rams' defense has underachieved statistically in allowing total yards - more specifically pass yards - mid to bottom tier of NFL. Consequently, we'll look for the #2 offensive in the NFL (Arizona) to be able to trade points effectively today. Arizona does their best as a road dog at 9-3-2 ATS. We'll grab the points. |
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10-02-21 | South Florida v. SMU -21 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
USF/SMU 4:00: Sonny Dykes has a history of thrashing sub .500 conference foes as evidenced by his 8-0 SU/7-1 ATS mark in that role. Dykes' offense should run roughshod all over the Bulls' defense which allows a generous 505 YPG (128th nationally). Look for the Mustangs to ride their Bentley IV (405 rushing yards) while opening up play action for gunslinger QB Mordecai. SMU just came off working a Gary Patterson coached TCU defense. The Mustangs should light up the scoreboard vs a USF defense not nearly at the same level. And USF doesn't quite have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Lay the wood. |
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10-02-21 | Ole Miss +15 v. Alabama | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Ole Miss/Alabama 3:30: Last season, Ole Miss gave Alabama trouble despite having the worst defense in the nation. This season, Ole Miss defense much improved yet still possess that dangerous offense. As a matter of fact, Ole Miss is producing 635 YPG (#1 nationally) and QB Matt Corral has emerged as a Heisman favorite and he has yet to throw an INT. Alabama showed their vulnerability against Florida and won't have an easy time here. Ole Miss off a blowout home win over a good mid major in Tulane. The Rebels are 8-0 ATS as a road dog off a SU/ATS home win. We'll take the points with Kiffin's boys. |
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10-02-21 | Ohio State v. Rutgers +15.5 | 52-13 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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10-01-21 | Iowa -3 v. Maryland | 51-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
Iowa/Maryland 8:00: Maryland has an explosive offense led by the Big Ten's leading passer: Taulia Tagovailoa; however, Iowa's defense is the real deal led by LB Jack Campbell. Iowa sports the #3 scoring defense in the nation. Surely this will be Taulia's first big test against one of the better stop units in the nation. Offensively, Iowa not flashy but they run a conservative ground control attack with Spencer Petras at the helm. They limit mistakes and play the field position game with solid special teams. We'll grab the not so flashy team with the Hawkeyes. |
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09-30-21 | Jaguars +8 v. Bengals | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show | |
Jaguars/Bengals 8:20: Jaguars need to clean up a few things to be competitive and it should come here. Bengals coming off a healthy win over Pittsburgh and could easily overlook Jacksonville with GB on deck. Jacksonville still has some dangerous weaponry in Shenault, Marvin Jones and Chark. And Robinson is doing a decent job as a RB (5.2 YPC). QB Lawrence should have a bit more time to find his targets; after all, Cincinnati not a great pass rush team. On the other hand, look for Jacksonville to generate pressure on Joe Burrow. Steelers couldn't sack him and he picked the secondary apart. Jaguars have enough secondary talent to hold off Chase and company to stay in this game. Jaguars the call.  |
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09-30-21 | Virginia +6 v. Miami-FL | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 18 h 0 m | Show | |
Virginia/Mia Fla 7:30: In recent years the Hurricanes are overhyped and they consistently disappoint; as a matter of fact, since 2018, they've lost 12 games SU as favorites including this season on September 18th at home vs Michigan State as 7 point chalk. Tonight, they have their work cut out for them again; after all, they may be without their QB D'Eriq King (shoulder). Sure, backup Van Dyke looked great but against lightweight Central Connecticut. 'Canes 0-5 ATS off SU win of 20+ points and 1-6 ATS at home. Virginia's QB Brennan Armstrong has thrown for 400+ in 3 straight games, 67% completions w/ 13 TDs and 3 INTs. Cav's coming off a disappointing loss vs a good WF team. They do, however, have resilience under Mendenhall going 4-0 ATS after scoring less than 20 points. And their 6-1 ATS after allowing 200+ rush yards. We'll grab the points here. |
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09-27-21 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | 21-41 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
Eagles/Cowboys 8:15: Both teams banged up a bit but Dallas' defense has areas of depth concern on defensive front and secondary. Eagles are running the rock well with Hurts and RB Sanders. And remember, Eagles no longer dependent on TE Zach Ertz (good to go) as only go-to receiver. Devonta Smith, Reagor and Watkins emerging trio. Sure, Eagles will miss DE Brandon Graham (Achilles) but do have defensive depth in their #6 defense (total yards). Cowboys' McCarthy 1-7 ATS as a favorite vs opponent off a non-division game. Cowboys 7-17 ATS in MNF. Eagles 13-6 ATS as a road dog on MNF and they're 6-2 ATS off an ATS loss. Back the Eagles tonight. |
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09-26-21 | Bucs v. Rams +1.5 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
Bucs/Rams 4:25: These teams met last season in late November with the Rams getting the best of Tampa Bay in Florida 27-24. So far, both defenses underachieving ranking as bottom feeders against the pass; however, Los Angeles secondary a bit more stable and disciplined; moreover, they have the most dominant interior pass rusher in the game - Aaron Donald who immobile QBs have nightmares over. Brady, of course, a different animal and has most of the answers. However, he has one less vertical threat at his disposal in AB (out). Moreover, Brady doesn't have that run game (31st in NFL at 67 YPG) to open up the pass game. This is the most formidable defense TB has faced this season. On the other side, QB Stafford a major upgrade over Goff (Detroit) and he's off to a great start. Stat of note: TB HC Arians 1-10 ATS as a .500 or greater team off a division game vs .500 or greater opponent. Rams the call. |
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09-26-21 | Jets v. Broncos -10 | 0-26 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
Jets/Broncos 4:05: Fangio has finally assembled a team that suits him: great defense, solid run game, efficient passer (Bridgewater). On the other hand, Urban Meyer in a rebuild and his team not entirely on board. Broncos 18-3 SU/17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 home openers versus non-division foes. Broncos the call. |
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09-26-21 | Bears +7.5 v. Browns | 6-26 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Bears/Browns 1:00: Bears' defense is creating turnovers, solid vs the run. Cleveland's offense is fueled by the run game and their offensive line is a bit banged up. Sure, Beckham Jr. makes his return but the loss of Landry (IR) hurts a bit more. And the Cleveland defense is underachieving this year, especially vs the pass. We'll look for Justin Fields to get it done in his first NFL start. Browns struggle vs the NFC North at 1-12 SU/2-11 ATS including 0-7 ATS slide. Chicago sports an 8-0 SU/6-1-1 ATS mark vs the AFC North including 3-0 ATS vs Cleveland. Take the points here. |
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09-26-21 | Chargers +7 v. Chiefs | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Chargers/Chiefs 1:00: Both teams coming off losses - Chargers 17-20 to the Cowboys and Chiefs 35-36 to the Ravens. Chargers should get their explosive offense back on track vs the yielding KC defense which has allowed a staggering 469 YPG (last in NFL). Chargers' defense got a good word that game changing DE Joey Bosa was upgraded to Questionable today. KC has had trouble with the Chargers. LA 3-1-1 ATS in this series including an outright in the last regular season game of last season. Chiefs 1-7 ATS as a home favorite of 7 or more after scoring 35 or more points. Chargers a sweet 15-4-2 ATS as road dogs in division games including 9-1 ATS vs opponents not coming off a double-digit win. We'll roll with the Chargers. |
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09-25-21 | Rutgers +20.5 v. Michigan | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
Rutgers/Michigan 3:30: Rutgers no joke this season. Experienced team with hard nosed defense with a well balanced offense. Scarlet Knights' HC Schiano was also able to establish a Top 40 recruiting class. Michigan most likely has to take an early peak at big revenge game vs Wisconsin next week. Rutgers 5-0 ATS as a road dog is the call. |
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09-25-21 | Clemson -10 v. NC State | 21-27 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
Clemson/NC State 3:30: Realize NC State has showed some good offensive production and respectable defense; however, Clemson has won eight straight in this series and they're overdue to get untracked offensively. Uiaglaelei has struggled but should break out today. NC State defense looks good on paper but now takes on significant upgrade. And consider that Clemson defense has not allowed an offensive TD this season. We'll lay the points. |
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09-25-21 | LSU v. Mississippi State +2.5 | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
LSU/Mississippi State Noon: Not buying into LSU as of yet. Run game not that effective (120th nationally) considering they've gone against FCS lightweight McNeese State and Central Michigan. Mississippi State upset the Tigers on opening day last year. Leach is coming off a loss with his Bulldogs (31-29 to Memphis). Mississippi State has a solid run stop unit and offensively can air it out with QB Will Rogers. Miss State 25-8 ATS at home vs a team with a winning road record. And they've covered 4 of last 5 as a dog. Miss State the call. |
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09-25-21 | Missouri -1 v. Boston College | Top | 34-41 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Missouri/Boston College Noon: Eagles can thank their schedule maker for 3-0 start. First three of their opponents went a combined 1-12 last season. Today, a significant upgrade. BC won't have starting QB Jurkovec (wrist surgery) and will go with Grosel - who actually looked good as a fill in. BC will rely on ground game which is cooking and, at the same time, attack the week spot of the Missouri defense. But Missouri has the offensive arsenal to more than enough trade points. Missouri the call. |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia -3.5 | 37-17 | Loss | -101 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
Wake Forest/Virginia 7:00: Not completely sold on WF after blowout wins over lightweights Old Dominion, Norfolk and 35-14 over a rebuilding FSU program. Virginia is coming off a 59-39 blowout loss to Mack Brown's UNC team. Don't expect Virginia to lay down defensively here. Mendenhall will have them more prepared. And offensively, QB Armstrong has already aired it out for 1300 yards! WF defense has consistently been yielding in the Clawson era. And hard to fade the Cavaliers tremendous 12-0 ATS mark with revenge after allowing 35+ points vs an opponent off a double digit SU win! |
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09-23-21 | Panthers -7.5 v. Texans | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
Panthers/Texans 8:20: We'll lay the wood with the Panthers here; after all, they control the #1 defense in many categories across the board in the NFL. That does not bode well for Houston backup David Mills, who actually has a future as an NFL baller but not enough time to prep after starter - Taylor went down. Panthers' defense has sacked QBs 10 times! On the other hand, Houston has many holes to fill defensively and should be tough to stop Darnold and versatile RB McCaffrey. Panthers 7-0 ATS on the road and like where they're going. |
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09-20-21 | Lions +12 v. Packers | 17-35 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 25 m | Show | |
Lions/Packers 8:15: Lions a dangerous backdoor cover team as evidenced in Week 1 vs SF. Goff can clearly sling it. He's got a good supporting cast of skill personnel including TE Hockenson, RB Swift, WR Williamson. Green Bay defense did not look good vs New Orleans and that's trouble laying double digits. Offensively, Rogers and company will most likely get back in rhythm but not sold on them here blowing out Detroit. Detroit has covered 7 of the last 8 in this series, 8-3 ATS in September and 6-2 ATS on MNF. We'll grab the double digits. |
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09-19-21 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cardinals | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 9 m | Show | |
Vikings/Cardinals 4:05: Heavy support for Arizona here; however, Arizona has a brief history of underachieving under Kingsbury despite the immense talent. And the Cardinals are just 4-9 ATS as chalk. Minnesota came roaring back last week at Cincinnati only to lose in OT. RB Cook was upset with late fumble. Look for the Vikings to snap back here. They're 27-10-1 ATS after less than 90 yards rushing the previous week. And their 38-17 ATS off a SU loss. Zimmer is dangerous as a dog and we'll grab him and the Vikings. |
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09-19-21 | 49ers v. Eagles +3 | Top | 17-11 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
49ers/Eagles 1:00: Eagles, flying under the radar, came out with guns a blazin' last week at Atlanta. Devonta Smith showed he was the real deal with 6 catches for 71 yards and a TD. Hurts looked good in the well balanced offensive attack under Sirianni. Sure, SF put some points up too but against a suspect Lions' defense. Moreover, Lions came roaring back for the back door cover vs a SF defense that doesn't have the same bite it did under former DC now Jets' HC Robert Saleh. What's more, the defense has injuries to key personnel including C Verrett. Philly 7-2 ATS last 9 in this series at home. SF, not a good favorite at 9-25-1 ATS. Eagles the call. |
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09-19-21 | Patriots -6 v. Jets | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
Patriots/Jets 1:00: Patriots in a ornery mood after dropping opener to Miami. The number of defensive breakdowns didn't sit well with Belichick; consequently, he'll have it figured out vs rookie QB Zach Wilson. Belichick 21-6 vs rookie QBs in his tenure in New England. On the other hand, Mac Jones proved he belonged in the league vs a very good Miami defense. Jets were swept in this series last year. And Patriots in September are 10-2 ATS off a SU loss vs a foe w/ revenge. With the Patriots 5-2 ATS in Week 2, we'll lay the points. |
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09-19-21 | Broncos -6 v. Jaguars | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
Broncos/Jaguars 1:00: Fangio has been building a formidable defense over his brief tenure and that was with key pieces missing. This year's unit is a lot more healthy and dangerous with Von Miller now healthy. And throw in Bradley Chubb (questionable), they're outright scary. And now that Bridgewater has settled in as the starter, the run game is cooking and less interceptions. Fangio works teams that are less than .500 off s SU loss as his 8-0 ATS mark indicates. Rebuilding Jaguars will have to wait for their rebuild. Broncos the call. |
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09-18-21 | Alabama -14.5 v. Florida | 31-29 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
Alabama/Florida 3:30: At first glance, Florida seems like a solid play getting two TDs on the their home field in a revenge battle. And Mullen's ground game is #1 in the nation; however, that ground was eaten up against two of the worst run stop units in the nation - Fla Atlantic and USF. Keep in mind that Florida lost some key stars from last year's class in QB Trask, TE Pitts, WR Toney, Trevon Grimes - 3 of 4 high draft choices in NFL. Alabama, on the other hand, goes about business as usual - #1 recruiting class in nation with Heisman candidate - Bryce Young off to a strong start (71% completions/7 TD passes/0 INTs). And Alabama's run stop unit in the upper echelon of the nation. With Fla having a duel QB combination with no clearly established starter, look for Alabama defense to turn it up a notch or two; after all, the 'Tide gets up for these hyped games. Alabama the call. |
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09-18-21 | Nebraska +23 v. Oklahoma | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 38 m | Show | |
Nebraska/Oklahoma Noon: Nebraska stumbled Week 1 vs Illinois but did bounce back strong with two covers against inferior opponents. Oklahoma almost got shocked by strong mid-major -Tulane before blasting lightweight Western Carolina. Not a good spot for Oklahoma but a good one for Nebraska. Sooners just 1-7 ATS as double digit favorites after scoring more than 35 points and 1-5 ATS before they play West Virginia. Moreover, 0-5 ATS at home vs an opponent off back-to-back ATS wins. Sure, Rattler and company will put up points in the offensive machine Lincoln Riley created; however, Nebraska's veteran QB Martinez got into focus with 71% completions last two games after 50% Week 1. And remember, Scott Frost has stocked some quality athletes since arriving in Nebraska while establishing the #20 recruiting class this season. That's closing the gap significantly on Riley and Oklahoma. We'll look for Nebraska to hang around. |
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech v. West Virginia -1.5 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 1 h 52 m | Show | |
09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team -3.5 | 29-30 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
NY/Washington 8:20: The concern for the Giants is not only the offensive line shuffling and that they rushed for a measly 60 yards vs the Broncos, but their defense allowed the Broncos to gash them for 165 yards. Washington, in good hands with Tyler Heinke, should utilize Antonio Gibson, Mckissic and Jaret Patterson to control clock and open up the play action game to McLaurin and Dyami Brown. Giants' offense has some great skill players in Golladay, Shepard and Slayton but fierce Washington front should be trouble for QB David Jones, who struggles in crunch time. Giants swept this series last season but Rivera is 5-1 ATS w/ revenge and 5-1 ATS vs division. We'll roll with Washington. |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders +4 | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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09-12-21 | Dolphins v. Patriots -3 | 17-16 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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09-12-21 | Jaguars -3 v. Texans | 21-37 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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09-11-21 | San Diego State +2 v. Arizona | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show | |
09-11-21 | Washington v. Michigan -6.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
Washington/Michigan 8:00: Washington, projected #20 team a few weeks ago, sustained a horrible loss to D1 Subdivision Montana last week. Sure, they were missing their top three receivers; however, prognosticators had Washington's offensive line ranking in the Top 5 in the country. The o-line surely didn't show it by getting pushed around by the Grizzlies. They averaged a meager 3.8 YPC on the ground, while QB Morris was 27 or 46 for just 226 yards. Meanwhile, Michigan ripped Western Michigan a new one the Big House and welcome the Huskies tonight. Sure, the Wolverines lost their star Bell (knee) but QB McNamara does have other options. RB Corum is running well behind a revamped Michigan offensive line. That surely helps open up the pass game. With Washington's receiving corps (lost Polk last week too) week to week and having to travel near cross country to the Big House, tough environment and task for Washington. We'll lay the TD. |
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09-11-21 | NC State -1 v. Mississippi State | 10-24 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 19 m | Show | |
NC State/Miss State 7:00: Leach managed to hold on for victory last week vs Louisiana Tech. They rallied in the 4th quarter to overcome 20 point deficit and holding on in final seconds on a missed Tech field goal. The competition gets tougher for Leach tonight. In to Starkville come NC State. The Wolfpack are fresh off a blowout over USF. Defensively, they're equipped with lots of veteran experience (10 returning starters) and it showed in Week 1. NC State HC Doeren has experience facing Leach. Doeren was on the defensive staff at Kansas when Leach was running Texas Tech. Also, Doeren has assistants who coach with Leach. NC State has its share of explosive offensive personnel too, including a run game which amassed nearly 300 yards last week. We'll go with the strong run game and defense here. NC State the call. |
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09-11-21 | Rutgers -1.5 v. Syracuse | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
09-09-21 | Cowboys +9.5 v. Bucs | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
Cowboys/Buccaneers 8:20: TB overvalued here. Laying near double digits to a rejuvenated Dallas team with a chip on their shoulder. Cowboys, coming off a sloppy 2020 campaign with QB Prescott going down and a defense that couldn't stop anybody for a large chunk of the season, have made some notable changes that should pay dividends. Prescott is back and the Cowboys' offense, equipped with a lot of skill talent and a solid line despite loss of G Martin, should be able to engineer points vs TB tonight. Realize all 22 starters back for TB this year but tonight will miss FS Whitehead out. On the other hand, former Legion of Boom DC Dan Quinn had time to coordinate a defense with some old and new (LB Parsons) talent that should keep Brady on his heels. Super Bowl winners are generally overhyped early and not good favorites in Game 1 (38%). TB 4-10 Week 1 and Thursday Nights 1-6 ATS; as a matter of fact, Brady had two outright sluggish games on Prime Time last season vs the Saints and Giants. Cowboys have covered 4 of last 5 as a dog and dangerous here. |
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09-06-21 | Louisville +10 v. Ole Miss | Top | 24-43 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
Louisville/Ole Miss 8:00: Louisville took a step back last season under Satterfield after an impressive 2019 campaign. We'll look at that as an anomaly with several instances of Covid19 protocol going into effect for the Cardinals. This year, the entire offensive line is back which helped QB Malik Cunningham and company produce an average of more than 200+ yards in both run and pass the last 2 seasons. Ole Miss has one of the worst defenses in the nation last season and had to outscore opponents to win games. They're still loaded offensively as Matt Corral has a great supporting cast. Louisville defense had some good showings last season and do return 7 starters with a number of players who got plenty of playing time. We'll look for Louisville to hang with the Rebels. Satterfield is 52-5 when scoring 30+ points. That's doable tonight! |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame -7 v. Florida State | 41-38 | Loss | -109 | 1 h 9 m | Show | |
09-04-21 | Georgia v. Clemson -2.5 | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Georgia/Clemson 7:30: Huge game in terms of playoff ramifications for each team, especially with the relatively light schedule each team is given. Each team has it's question marks. Clemson is breaking in two new offensive line starters who will have to tango with arguably the best defensive line in the country. And new QB Uiagalelei will have to pilot the offense. However, when Uiagalelei played in his only start last year, he lit up Notre Dame's defense for record numbers. He does have a solid supporting cast led by WR Justyn Ross. And the Georgia secondary has to break in three new starters. As for the Clemson defense, they return 9 starters and will make life not so great for Georgia QB J.T. Daniels and the deep RB corps. We'll give the edge to Clemson. |
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09-04-21 | West Virginia -2.5 v. Maryland | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
West Virginia/Maryland 3:30: WV didn't have a good road record last year but do bring back key parts of their winning program (6-4 SU). QB Doege has a solid set of skill personnel to go to including 1000+ rusher Leddie Brown behind a veteran offensive line. MD gets talent under Locksley but it rarely materializes into victories. MD 5-12 ATS as a dog. Under Locksley, Terps a money burning 6-10 ATS. Go with Neal Brown and his balanced team on both sides of the ball. |
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