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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-20-20 | Bucknell v. Colgate -8 | 65-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-19-20 | Packers v. 49ers -6.5 | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 164 h 5 m | Show | |
Packers/49ers 6:40: Yes, I know the sequence. 49ers demolished Green Bay in November 37-8 and Aaron Rodgers and company are out to avenge the defeat. Only problem is the Packers' offensive line may not be able to hold up again against the league's most brutal front four. Bosa, Ford, Armstead, Buckner now all healthy and with line stunts, don't need much help with blitzes. Rodgers was brutalized in that game and I don't see a significant difference here. And teams that won 20+ point blowouts in regular season meeting the same team in playoffs have gone 22-14 in the second game. Sure, SF hasn't been a good TD favorite but they're the better team across the board and we'll lay it here. |
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01-19-20 | Titans +7.5 v. Chiefs | 24-35 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
Titans/Chiefs 3:05: Chiefs really concerned about Titans and they should. Reid is a money burning 1-8 SU vs Tennessee! And Tennessee won at KC earlier in the season 35-32. Today, I like the formula of Tennessee, which is the January Playoff way: run the football and work off play action while playing solid defense and creating turnovers. Tennessee runs the football better than any team right now. Henry has gutted two good defenses with 182 (NE) and 195 (Balt) yards. And KC's defense is vulnerable (26th vs run). Henry only gets better as the game wears on and KC does not have the defensive depth (Chris Jones still out) to stop him. Moreover, one of the reasons Henry will continue to be successful is QB Tannehill. His play action to his underrated enormously athletic receiving corps has been tearing up secondaries and KC is won't have an easy time. On the other hand, I do appreciate the KC offensive arsenal which is loaded; however, Vrabel has his boys creating turnovers and limiting explosive plays. Houston made the mistake of abandoning the run game too early and inappropriate special teams miscues after jumping out to 24-0. Tennessee more disciplined and better coached. Tennessee the call. |
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01-19-20 | Minnesota v. Rutgers -4.5 | 56-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
01-18-20 | Toledo v. Akron -5 | 99-89 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Toledo/Akron 2:00: Groce has the Zips rolling and should deliver here; after all, they're stingy on the defensive side and smooth offensively at home. Akron has covered 10 of its last 14 at home. Toledo has lost nine straight ATS and 0-5 ATS traveling. Toledo is a weak defensive rebounding team (215th nationally) and much too reliant on PG Jackson offensively. Akron has a Jackson of their own: Loren Cristian Jackson and he has a good supporting cast. Akron the call. |
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01-18-20 | South Carolina v. Texas A&M -1.5 | 81-67 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
South Carolina/Texas A&M 1:00: A&M poised to deliver here after hard fought OT loss to LSU on Tuesday. South Carolina, meanwhile, is coming off their most monumental regular season win in a few years upsetting Kentucky. They're in for a letdown here. Martin has found a new scoring weapon in his arsenal but A&M sports the SEC's Top Ranked Defense at 63 PPG. Buzz has good on court leadership with senior F Nebo who leads the team in points, rebounds and blocks. And Fr Gordon came on strong vs LSU adding 17 points. A&M 5-1 ATS on Saturdays and we'll roll with them. |
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01-18-20 | Baylor -6 v. Oklahoma State | 75-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Baylor/Oklahoma State Noon: Okie State doesn't have much home court advantage and they surely have trouble against good teams. Cowboys 0-4 ATS vs teams above .600. Oklahoma State is severely offensively challenged averaging a paltry 66.2 PPG, shooting just 40.5% from the field (323rd nationally), and a measly 29% from 3 point range (329th in nation). Consequently, they will be choked out by one of the premier defenses (#6) in the nation. I don't see a slip up here from the rolling Bears. |
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01-17-20 | Dayton v. St. Louis +7.5 | 78-76 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
Dayton/St. Louis 7:00: On paper, St. Louis looks to be over matched against the explosive offense of the Toppin and Landers' lead Flyers; however, Billikens are a tough out with tenacious defense and a good trio of shooters in G Goodwin, F French and F Perkins. SLU sports a 3-0-1 ATS mark at home vs a team with a road win % above .600. Of course, the Flyers are looking to avenge their ATL 10 Quarterfinals loss last March. SLU had 3 extra prep days for this one and I believe they'll keep it tight. Dayton is 0-6 ATS on Friday. St. Louis the call. |
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01-16-20 | William & Mary +1.5 v. Delaware | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-15-20 | Tennessee v. Georgia -2.5 | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 20 h 52 m | Show | |
Tennessee/Georgia 7:00: Tennessee coming off back-to-back SU wins but having trouble covering numbers. The Volunteers are offensively challenged averaging 66 PPG which is 302nd in the nation. Sure, they play pretty good defense but they will have difficulty matching buckets with Georgia on this floor. Georgia averages about 79 PPG and already 0-2 in SEC after losses to SEC heavyweights Kentucky and Auburn. We'll look for a great sense of urgency from the Bulldogs to get back in the win column. |
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01-15-20 | Indiana v. Rutgers -3.5 | 50-59 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
Indiana/Rutgers 7:00: Pikiell doing a great job making Rutgers a legitimate relevant team in the Big 10. Rutgers has covered 8 straight games. They're coming off a SU loss at Illinois and should get back to their winning ways on their home floor. Rutgers plays great defense and fundamentally sound. Jacob Young is picking up his game substantially and that should carry over tonight. Indiana struggles on the Big 10 road with blowout losses at Wisconsin and Maryland. Rutgers the call. |
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01-13-20 | Clemson +6.5 v. LSU | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
Clemson/LSU 8:00: Exciting matchup with the undisputed two best teams in the nation. Burrow and his amazing offense coupled with an LSU defense that really came on strong down the stretch; as a matter of fact, few weaknesses in this LSU machine as HC Orgeron was the beneficiary of the most talented team in the nation. Nevertheless, LSU, like any other team, has its weaknesses - albeit very few- that can be exploited. Assuming veteran Clemson DC Venables has his Top 5 Pass Defense in the Nation limiting explosive plays, LSU may have trouble scoring TDs in the Red Zone where LSU struggles a bit; as a matter of fact, inside the 10, LSU's Red Zone Offense ranks 61st in the nation. Clemson doesn't have natural pass rushing edge rushers but bring heat from a variety of positions to be 3rd in the nation in sacks. Venerables loves using hybrid S/OLB Simmons from all angles and he can even cover RB Edwards-Helaire out of the backfield. As for Clemson offensively, QB Lawrence doesn't have to take a backseat to anyone. He's a proven winner with a great supporting cast including Tee Higgins, Ross and arguably the most explosive RB in the nation Etienne. LSU's defense has allowed 11 rushes for 30+ yards this season. Coaching edge to Swinney who is a money making 9-1 SU/ATS as a dog in a Playoff or Bowl! Clemson the call. |
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01-12-20 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Packers | 23-28 | Loss | -108 | 40 h 26 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Packers 6:40: Last week, Seattle went in to Philly with three offensive line starters injured, and deep in to their depth chart in TE and RB yet still managed to come out with a win. Much of the credit to Pete Carroll, a highly underrated HC. Today, him and his great QB Wilson will find a way to put points on the board. Fortunately, Metcalf has stepped up his game to compliment Lockett as a deep threat. Would love to see the "Beast Mode" amped up but that may be a stretch; however, he still is dangerous around the goal line. And Homer is doing a pretty good job. Sure, GB's QB Rodgers is always a threat and RB Aaron Jones dangerous running and receiving. Seattle's defense not what it used to be but Clowney (probable) and the addition of S Diggs have helped tremendously in these games. We'll look for Pete Carroll to find a way once again. |
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01-12-20 | Texans +10.5 v. Chiefs | 31-51 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Texans/Chiefs 3:05: Hard to lay double-digits with a KC defense that gives up lots of ground. Houston has a run game, as exhibited in the first matchup Oct. 13th, when they outrushed and outthrew the Chiefs at Arrowhead. The moment isn't too big for QB Watson for he shined again last week vs a very good Buffalo defense. And now that Fuller should be good to go to compliment Hopkins, Houston has a fighting chance here. Moreover, KC's top pass rusher Chris Jones (calf) is still not at his best. On the other hand, the Texans' defense does need work and not a fan of DC Crennel; however, Mercilus and Watt looked good last week and we'll look for them to follow up strong here. Reid, of course is awesome, off bye weeks and KC is well rested; however, interesting to note that Reid is 0-8 ATS at home off a division game w/ revenge. We'll take the points. |
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01-11-20 | Titans v. Ravens -9.5 | 28-12 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-11-20 | Texas Tech +5 v. West Virginia | 54-66 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
Texas Tech/West Virginia 6:00: Chris Beard's preparation is second to none. As Texas Tech is coming off a loss to #4 Baylor, Beard will have his men ready to handle Huggins' full court pressure and succeed. WV does have a smothering defense but Tech's defense is almost equally as good on paper and arguably better in real time action. Tech's Ramsey and Moretti offer a strong scoring punch while WV offense struggles to find rhythm too often. We'll look for Tech to keep them out of rhythm here. Tech is 9-1 ATS on the road off 3 or more home games, 9-1 ATS on Saturdays, and 4-1 ATS as a dog. Remember, December 10th the Red Raiders were 7' point dogs going in to then #1 Louisville and easily pulled off the upset. We'll roll with TT. |
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01-10-20 | Maryland v. Iowa +1.5 | 49-67 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-09-20 | Minnesota v. Michigan State -12 | 58-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Minnesota/Michigan State 9:00: Minnesota, coming off a good win against Northwestern, should experience trouble at this venue. Favorite and home team at 5-0 ATS/4-1 ATS respectively. Michigan State has amped up their game with back-to-back blowout wins against conference foes. Winston is now getting good support and their defense is clamping down. Michigan State 38-18 ATS vs teams with road winning % less than .400. We'll roll with #8 Michigan State which is finally living up to their pre-season billing. |
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01-09-20 | Memphis v. Wichita State -5.5 | 67-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
Memphis/Wichita State 7:00: Shockers did not have their usual NCAA Tournament team under HC Marshall last year; consequently, they got swept in this series even though it was competitive. Tonight, the Shockers have talent under always well prepared HC Marshall and had 4 days to prep for this double revenge game. Shockers have great balance this year in perimeter shooters Etienne and Stevenson plus inside force Echenique; in addition, quality depth. Memphis, on the other hand, was rolling at #22 in polls until a lackluster effort at home vs Georgia. Memphis, comprised of mostly talented freshmen and sophomores under Hardaway, sport a 1-4-1 ATS off 3 or more home games. It will be tough for them to deliver in this venue in which the Shockers are undefeated. |
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01-09-20 | College of Charleston -8.5 v. Elon | Top | 73-65 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
COFC/Elon 7:00: Elon struggling in the Colonial Athletic Association while College of Charleston rolling. Elon, 4-12 SU, relying on Sheffield II to supply the motherlode of points for the Phoenix while getting little help from anyone else; consequently, they're 249th in the nation scoring points (68.6 PPG) yet bad defensively as well (270th in nation allowing 72.8 PPG). That's a recipe for disaster as they host a team that's handled itself on the road. Cougars are 6-1 ATS on the road and 5-0 ATS off a SU win. Defensively, they're not great but guard the perimeter well (allow 29%). We'll look for the Cougars to keep it rolling here. |
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01-08-20 | Oklahoma v. Texas -2 | 72-62 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-08-20 | St. John's +4 v. Georgetown | 66-87 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
St. John's/Georgetown 6:30: Both teams started off on fire but only one is showing promise. St. John's had some big victories early and most recently went to Arizona to claim an outright as a double-digit dog. They remained competitive in the Big East with covers at Xavier and Butler and hungry for that first conference win. They should get it at Georgetown tonight. Georgetown endured blowout back-to-back defeats in the Big East road after a strong non-conference ledger. Hoyas look dazed and confused and give up easy buckets from the perimeter; consequently, we'll look for the Red Storm to break out of their perimeter shooting slump tonight. SJ's Coach Anderson has his men forcing turnovers (13th in nation). With the Hoyas sloppy in play and 1-4 ATS off a SU loss, we'll look for the road team (3-1-1 ATS in series) to deliver here. |
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01-07-20 | Villanova v. Creighton -1.5 | 64-59 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
Villanova/Creighton 9:00: Both teams coming off losses but Creighton should have the edge here. They're 10-0 on their home floor and respond well off losses at 4-0 ATS. Villanova got worked vs Marquette on the 4th and it won't be easy walking into this venue with the vengeful Blue Jays eager to make up for getting swept last year in this series. Their came a time in recent history when McDermott had the horses to run Villanova out of the gym. Tonight, Creighton has those perimeter marksmen including Zegarowski who can get hot. The Blue Jays were stone cold at Butler on the 4th but should get it together tonight in their comfortable confines. Villanova just 1-9-1 ATS as a traveler and 1-8 ATS on the road vs a team with a home winning % above .600. Creighton has some good wins including Texas Tech, Nebraska, OK, Arizona State and Marquette on their resume. We'll look for them to knock off #16 Villanova tonight. |
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01-07-20 | Penn State v. Rutgers +2 | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 2 h 41 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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01-06-20 | Miami-OH v. UL-Lafayette -14 | 17-27 | Loss | -101 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
UL-Lafayette/Miami-OH 7:30: Ragin' Cajuns may not be able to compete with the Power 5 programs of the NCAA just yet, but can handle the mid-majors. UL-Lafayette has a veteran offensive line with a couple beasts, including All-American G Dotson and All Conferance Hunt. They've helped pave the way for a bruising rush attack that grinds out 265 YPG with 41 TDs. They have a trio of backs who rushed for 2,755 yards. Sure, Miami OH has a decent defense but not able to withstand the bruising line of the Cajuns for 4 quarters; especially, with a pedestrian offense the Redhawks bring to the field. Miami OH ranks 122nd offensively in the nation. Sure, ULL defensive run-stop-unit gives up yardage but tightens in the red-zone (10th ranked in nation). ULL 4-0 ATS in non-conference and 6-1 ATS off SU loss. Redhawks sport a money burning 2-10 ATS mark outside their conference. Cajuns should deliver. |
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01-05-20 | Vikings +9 v. Saints | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Vikings/Saints 1:05: Everybody and their brother on Saints today. I know, the revenge from the 2018 Minneapolis Miracle, and New Orleans is on a blistering 3-0 SU/ATS run with an offense that looked unstoppable with Brees throwing 15 TDs/0 picks in the month of December. However, Minnesota has played New Orleans tough under HC Zimmer. Zimmer's defense held Brees in check the last 3 meetings in which the New Orleans QB was held to under 300 yards per game in each with a combined 7 TDs/3 INTs. Sure, Michael Thomas is the most dangerous target and surely Minnesota will keep him heavily weighted in their scheme. Kamara's numbers are down this year for he doesn't have Mark Ingram around to take the pressure off. Also, Minnesota has gotten healthy on both sides of the ball and not short on defensive playmakers as LB Kendricks is back to join forces with Harris, Hunter and S Harrison Smith. Offensively, Thielen (hamstring) is finally reaching stride after his lingering hammy issue. And Dalvin Cook, arguably one of the top backs in the NFL, gives life to the play action pass game for Cousins - who is at his best when Cook is behind him. Saints just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home favorite roles and this one is a little pricey. Like the road team in the Wild Card round and it applies here. Take the points. |
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01-04-20 | Titans v. Patriots -4.5 | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
Titans/Patriots 8:15: Despite the rumblings of Patriots' demise, they're hosting a playoff game in January and that's bad news for visitors. Patriots 6-1 ATS in January and 6-2 ATS as a playoff home favorite. Sure, the Titans have dangerous offensive weaponry in A.J. Brown, Jannu Davis, RB Henry and QB Tannehill who leads the league in passer rating. And on paper, it doesn't look good for New England as Brady is having one of his worst years ever, limited weaponry, and a defense that got torched by Miami in the finale; however, as we know, this game isn't played on paper and great teams aren't always great, they're just great when they have to be. Patriots 22-6 ATS after allowing 250+ through the air. Yes, they'll make the adjustments and deliver. Titans a shaky 1-17 ATS off a double digit SU win vs conference opponent and just 1-4 ATS in Foxborough. |
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01-04-20 | Bills +3 v. Texans | 19-22 | Push | 0 | 16 h 5 m | Show | |
Bills/Texans 4:35: Buffalo has played well on the road all season with 6 road wins and history dictates that means a lot come playoff time. The Bills can run the football now that they've found their featured back in Singletary (5.1 YPC). That, of course, opens up the play action for QB Josh Allen. He's got some good weapons including vertical threat John Brown and possession guy Cole Beasley. In addition, defense is where Buffalo has been consistently strong unlike Houston which occasionally shuts down a team. Sure, Watson is really good and he's got Will Fuller (groin) back to add to a dangerous arsenal with Hopkins; however, for the record, Watson struggled last time he faced Buffalo (sacked 7X with 2 INT's and fumble). Always fearful of Texans laying points. We'll back the road team here. |
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01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati -7.5 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
Boston College/Cincinnati 3:00: Tough assignment for interim HC Gunnell to hold together BC program without their key cog and OC Bajakian. BC's starting RB Dillon who was the ignition to their offense, decided to sit out in prep for NFL while their OC took the same role at Northwestern. That will put an enormous burden on sophomore QB Bailey who took over for injured starter Brown (knee) earlier in the year. Cincinnati had a great year but still stewing after back-to-back close losses to American Athletic Conference Champ - Memphis. Bearcats' defense the real deal and should control this game. Cincinnati the call. |
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01-01-20 | Baylor +4.5 v. Georgia | 14-26 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Baylor/Georgia 8:45: If this game was played during the regular season, Georgia would be the prohibitive favorite and possibly worth going with; however, motivational factor comes in to play tonight. Georgia will be without nearly a dozen players for various reasons. And the 37-7 burial by LSU December 7th sucked the life out of this team. Jake Fromm hasn't completed above 50% of his passes in 5 straight games. Sure, Swift is a big time RB but LSU shut him down completely because of a Georgia passing game that's not scaring defenses. And Baylor's defense is one to be reckoned with. They play the run well, get after the QB (3.3 sacks per game), and opportunistic in creating fumbles and interceptions. The Baylor offense can run the football and QB Brewer (concussion protocol but likely to play) has talented skill personnel to go to. Baylor has been a covering machine all season including 5 straight covers down the stretch. Motivational factor with Baylor as Rhule will have his guys ready after valiant effort in Big 12 Championship Game vs Oklahoma. Baylor the call. |
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01-01-20 | Wisconsin v. Oregon +3 | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
Wisconsin/Oregon 5:00: Close call here, for Wisconsin is a dangerous bowl team rattling off 5 straight wins; however, both teams have explosive offenses and rock solid defensively. The key determinent is Oregon's QB Herbert who is a big time player. He has a veteran offensive line protecting him including LT Sewell (Outland Trophy) and a really good wideout in Johnson. And what makes the pass game click is RB Verdell who ran all over the nation's #1 run stop unit Utah. Sure, Wisconsin's RB Taylor is as good as they get but the jury is still out on QB Coan. Oregon has a really good defense, tough vs the run and oportunistic. Wisky 0-5 ATS as a neutral favorite and I believe this one will be close, therefore, we'll grab the points. |
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01-01-20 | Minnesota v. Auburn -6.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
Minnesota/Auburn 1:00: Minnesota stepped up significantly this year under HC Fleck. They're well disciplined, solid in every facet of the game as exhibited against their biggest win of the season at home vs Penn State November 9th. QB Morgan was awesome and well surrounded with RB Rodney Smith, and big time receivers Johnson and Bateman. And defensively, stout and strong; however, the Gophers still a recruiting class or two away from hanging with the likes of Auburn. Sure, Auburn lost three games but all competive games and against Top 7 teams including a hard fought 23-20 loss at #1 LSU! And keep in mind that Auburn beat bowl teams Oregon (neutral site), Texas A&M in College Station and Alabama in Iron Bowl. Minnesota lost in their step up games to Wisconsin and Iowa and was the beneficiary of not having to play Ohio State and Michigan. Auburn's veteran offensive line, big time skill personnel and a Top 20 defense should be too much for the Gophers. Auburn 17-3 ATS after allow 35+ in their last game vs an opponent off a SU loss. And Malzahn lost his OC but calls a pretty good game. Auburn should deliver. |
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01-01-20 | Michigan v. Alabama -7 | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Michigan/Alabama 1:00: Can't side with the Wolves with Harbaugh on account of their horrible road record and bowl games vs Top 10 teams at 0-6! Sure, Alabama won't have LB Lewis and CB Diggs as they prep for NFL draft. Nevertheless, Saban's cupboard is still full of quality goods for star receivers Jeudy, Ruggs and Smith will be at the disposal of QB Mac Jones. And 1000+ rusher Harris, whom Michigan lost the recruiting battle too, should find room behind the rock solid 'Bama offensive line. Michigan's defense brings back bad memories of how Wisconsin moved them around like furniture. On the other hand, the Wolve's offense isn't exactly explosive with Patterson at the helm. And he won't have Tarik Black (transfer) to go to. Alabama the call. |
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12-31-19 | Texas +7.5 v. Utah | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
12-31-19 | Kansas State v. Navy -3 | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
12-31-19 | Kentucky +3 v. Virginia Tech | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Kentucky/Virginia Tech Noon: Hard to fade Virginia Tech, which will be playing for long term tenured DC Bud Foster who will be retiring this year. But Kentucky is more sound in a variety of areas. Their offensive line is outstanding significantly producing the #4 run game in the FBS. QB Bowden Jr. sports a 5-2 mark since he was inserted in the lineup and he won the Paul Hornung Award for his versatility. VT is impressive offensively too behind QB Hooker who is 6-2 as a starter this year; however, offensive line question marks at times and they face a fierce KY defense. 'Cats 4-0 ATS vs teams above .500 and 6-0 ATS in non-conference games. Got to take the field goal here. |
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12-30-19 | Illinois +6.5 v. California | Top | 20-35 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Illinois/California 4:00: Impressed with the Fighting Illini who snuck up on foes of the Big Ten. Illinois turned in a strong season finish with a 6-0 ATS run down the stretch with QB Peters, including outrights over Wisconsin, at Purdue and at Michigan State. He was concussed in the finale loss to NW. He's back for this one and Illinois should deliver. California started strong but injuries curtailed their progress throughout the season. Their offense, ranked in the bottom tier of the NCAA, does not scare anyone. And their defense, which was outstanding last year, regressed a bit this season. Cali is 1-6 ATS in December and 1-6 ATS on a neutral field. With the Illini at 5-0 ATS as a dog, we'll ride Lovie and his boys here. |
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12-30-19 | Western Michigan v. Western Kentucky -3 | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Western Michigan/Western Kentucky 12:30: Both teams have productive offenses but like the team with the defensive edge in Western Kentucky. Sure, WM has explosive RB Bellamy and veteran QB Wassink behind an experienced offensive line; however, defensively give up way too many yards and points. On the other hand, WK has a top 20 defense that ranks 6th nationally in 3rd down conversion % and 15th nationally in the red zone. Helton did a great job in developing his backup QB Storey who meshed well with a good offensive line and some solid skill personnel. And remember, WK defeated 4 Conference USA Bowl teams and a Power 5 Conference team in Arkansas. Western Kentucky the call. |
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12-29-19 | Steelers +1 v. Ravens | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 143 h 14 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh/Baltimore 4:25: Steelers still in the playoff hunt and Baltimore secured the #1 seed. Ravens decided to rest many starters including their inevitable MVP QB Lamar Jackson. And remember, their top RB Ingram, who significantly boosts the run game, is out (calf). Now, backup QB RG III, who had that one good year in Washington as a rookie, takes over at the helm. He's seen limited action in garbage time for Jackson and did not fare well. The zone read game is clearly not going to scare any defense let alone Pittsburgh's - loaded with former #1 draft choices. Pittsburgh the call. |
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12-29-19 | Redskins v. Cowboys -12 | 16-47 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Redskins/Cowboys 4:25: Cowboys lost control of division with loss at Philadelphia last week. Amazingly, they're still in the race and can win the NFC East with a win here and an Eagles loss. Cowboys usually beat up weak teams as their 5-1 ATS mark vs teams under .500 indicates. Redskins will be with QB Haskins (hamstring) and talented rookie WR McLaurin. Keenum a good backup but got to believe the Cowboys' defense can step up their game. Offensively, Cowboys' RB Elliot should have a big game vs the Redskins 29th run stop unit. Bottom line, Washington is looking forward to the #2 pick in the draft (with a loss) while the Cowboys desperately clinging on to their playoff lives. Cowboys should move to 15-3 ATS the NFC East. |
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12-29-19 | Chargers +10.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Chargers/Chiefs 1:00: What could be Philip Rivers final game for the Chargers, I project him going out strong. He's put some big numbers up vs KC (353 yards on 11/18) but has thrown lots of interceptions (20 in 11 games vs KC). He and his mates do seem to play better on the road, especially RB Ekeler with 8 straight road TDs! KC doesn't have much to play for here and an early lead by the Patriots (vs Miami) could have HC Reid resting starters late in this one; after all, KC is locked in the #3 seed with a win and a Patriots win. With a KC loss and a Texans win, KC would fall to the #4 spot. Nevertheless, a bye is pretty much out of the question for the Patriots most likely won't lose to Miami in Foxborough, especially this late in December. KC's run defense not that great; after all, they've allowed six runner to crack the 100 yard mark this season and give up an average of 130 YPG. We'll look for Melvin Gordon to work on his yardage incentive$ as the season draws to a close. And still like the Chargers' pass defense that can be stingy. With Rivers at 14-4-2 ATS as a division road dog, take the points with the vengeful Chargers. |
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12-28-19 | Clemson -2 v. Ohio State | 29-23 | Win | 100 | 17 h 20 m | Show | |
Clemson/Ohio State 8:00: Been riding OSU most of the season but got to go with Swinney and his boys here. Clemson is loaded on both sides of the ball and defensively a Top 10 defense across the board including TFLs and Sacks. And an opposing QB with a brace on his knee will never strike fear in a defense of this magnitude. Fields is still not at his best as a runner and that lack of a step will be costly tonight. What makes Fields and the Buckeyes' potent offensive machine work is Fields' ability to fake throws in single coverage and use his feet to gobble up chunks of yardage. His knee troubles limit that threat especially against a fast Clemson secondary. Sure, OSU loaded with skill personnel and arguably one of the best RBs in country in J.K. Dobbins; however, Clemson's QB Lawrence has found his rhythm 20 TDs/0 INTs last 6 games and RB Etienne and amazing wideouts of Clemson just a bit too much in prime time. Clemson 10-1 ATS in December, 9-1 ATS in bowls, 4-0 ATS neutral favorite. Clemson. |
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12-28-19 | Iowa State +4 v. Notre Dame | 9-33 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-27-19 | USC v. Iowa -2 | 24-49 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
Iowa/USC 8:00: USC hasn't won a meaningful bowl game since Pete Carroll departed. Helton, who amazingly got his contract renewed, has question marks on if his offensive coordinator will stay or not. And sure, QB Slovis threw for 400+ in 4 of the last 5 games; however, none of those secondaries were in the top 100 defensively. USC will face the best defense of the season. Hawkeyes, rank #11 defensively with a ball hawking secondary and a DE Epenesa who is a sack machine NFL ready. Yes, Iowa's offense not that explosive but steady and physical with QB Nate Stanley at the helm. He has the current Big 10 Lineman of the Year at OT in Wirfs. Moreover, special teams a significant advantage. Iowa in the Top 10 nationally whereas USC 129th of 130 FBS teams covering kicks. Iowa the call. |
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12-27-19 | Oklahoma State +5.5 v. Texas A&M | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State/Texas A&M: 6: 45: We'll take the points with Gundy and his Cowboys. Okie State's Gundy always dangerous as a dog let alone a Bowl Dog. Gundy has gone 3-1 SU/ATS as a bowl dog. In season finales, A&M coming off a humiliating loss to LSU while Okie State comes off a competitive loss to Oklahoma. The LSU loss typified Coach Fisher's frustration with his recruits. In step up games vs Top 10 bowl teams, Fisher went 0-5 SU. Clearly Oklahoma State is not in the category as a Top 10 team but very competitive. And now that Cowboys' RB Hubbard has decided to play in this one to up his NFL status to perhaps a late #1 draft choice, State has fighting chance. He makes the play action game run smoothly for either Sanders or Dru Brown. As for A&M, their top defensive player - Madubuike decided to skip this bowl to prepare for the NFL draft. We'll grab the points. |
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12-26-19 | Miami-FL v. Louisiana Tech +7 | 0-14 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
Louisiana Tech/Mia Fla 4:00: Skip Holtz a dangerous dog in his career at 50-26-1 ATS. We'll take a TD here with Holtz and his Bulldogs who will be playing in their home state. Moreover, the Bulldogs come into this one sporting a 5-0 SU bowl run. Miami U, on the other hand, lost 8 of its last 9 bowl games and, again, underachieved, this time under first year HC Diaz. Sure, the former Miami U defensive coordinator still has a suffocating defense; however, their offense (88th in nation) does not scare anyone. Quarterback issues and, even worse, offensive line problems were a direct result in not able to establish a quality run game (120th nationally). And their leading rusher Deejay Dallas will not play. LT, which wasn't great defensively, does possess the 3rd best defense in the nation in the red zone which means a lot against a non-explosive team. And LT's offense, lead by QB J'mar Smith (17/4 TD/INT) should be rolling again. He was suspended for the Marshall and UAB losses but made a difference back for the season finale with a win over UTSA. We'll grab the dog here. |
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12-25-19 | Clippers +2 v. Lakers | 111-106 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show | |
Clippers/Lakers 8:05: Rematch from opening day tilt 65 days ago. Clippers went on to win as the Clippers Leonard came up huge. Tonight, the big guns on both teams should be in full force unlike on opening day when Kuzma for the Lakers and George for the Clippers were out. I still like the Clippers today getting a bucket. Clippers is in better rhythm now and they're 20-7 ATS off a SU loss. They're also 5-1 ATS off 2 days rest and they're 5-0 ATS in this series. Lakers coming off 3 straight losses and on an 0-5 ATS slide. And they're 4-9 ATS off a SU loss of 10+. I'm sure LeBron and AD will play despite reported injuries but not sure they're in the rhythm they were in earlier in the season. Clippers the call. |
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12-23-19 | Packers +5.5 v. Vikings | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 52 m | Show | |
Packers/Vikings 8:15: Plenty to fight for in this matchup but we'll grab the points with the road team. GB is looking to capture the NFC North and looking to sweep their arch-rival; as a matter of fact, in the September 15th matchup, won by GB 21-15, the Packers were out-totaled in yardage as Devin Cook ran roughshod over them for 154 yards on 20 carries including a 75 yard TD burst. Tonight, one of the most explosive backs in the league - Cook - will not play due to injury. And his backup is out as well which leaves little used Mike Boone. Cousins has been awesome since the loss to GB mostly in part with the play action on account of the effectiveness of Cook who also was significant as a receiver. GB, on the other hand, has RB Aaron Jones and WR Davante Adams healthy and doing damage. We'll look for QB Aaron Rodgers to step up his prime time game and deliver. Minnesota only 1-7 ATS as a favorite of less than 6 off a SU non-conference win; moreover, Cousins has yet to deliver on MNF (0-8 SU). GB the call. |
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12-23-19 | Marshall +16 v. Central Florida | 25-48 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
Marshall/Central Florida 2:30: Marshall has a rich history of winning bowl games as their 12-2 SU mark indicates. And current HC Holiday sports a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS mark in bowls for Marshall. UCF a formidable foe under Heupel but not as dominant as they were the past few years. Marshall has a solid QB in Green with a good supporting cast including RB Knox. Defensively, LBs Beckett and Cobb are outstanding. 16 points a bit too much vs a team that repeatedly steps up in big games. Marshall the call. |
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12-22-19 | Cowboys v. Eagles +2.5 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
Cowboys/Eagles 4:25: Battle of mediocrity in the NFC East ensues today. We'll look for the Eagles to cross the threshold on to control of the division. Cowboys, blew out the Eagles October 20th as Elliot and Cooper had big numbers. Sure, they've had the Eagles number lately but don't count the Eagles out and do not underestimate Dallas HC Garrett's mediocrity. Dallas is coming off a blowout over Los Angeles. They did that as a rare dog but repeatedly underachieve as a favorite. They're due for a fall here. Prescott operating with a sprained throwing shoulder and Eagles' defense, which plays the run well, should step up their defensive game. Offensively, Wentz starting to play better and does have TE Ertz and RB Sanders to go to. Eagles hit with injuries so will need their young talent to step up their game. We'll look for them to be ready for the challenge. Eagles 10-2 ATS in December off division vs a division opponent off a double-digit SU win, 7-1 ATS off the Redskins. Eagles the call. |
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12-22-19 | Cardinals +9.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
Cardinals/Seahawks 4:25: Been riding the Seahawks for the past few years but will fade them in this spot. Seahawks usually make things too interesting winning by close margins as a heavy favorite. Seattle, currently the #1 seed in the NFC, do have SF on deck and stacked with key injuries. Seahawks' defense has not been good under Norton Jr. and face a pretty good Arizona offense. Kyler Murray is having a pretty good year and has some weaponry including future HOF WR Fitzgerald. Moreover, RB Drake was a good pickup from Miami. He's done well in his six games with Arizona. Sure, Arizona defense gives up points but do have sack specialist Chandler Jones and S Budda Baker give big play ability to them. And remember, Seattle depth is thin on both sides of the ball. Defensively, still without Clowney (core), S Diggs (ankle) , top run stopper Woods (suspended), and LB Wagner on the mend. Arizona is a sweet 5-1-1 ATS as a road dog and has covered 4 straight in Seattle. Arizona the call. |
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12-22-19 | Raiders +9 v. Chargers | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
Raiders/Chargers 4:05: Raiders are banged up with RT Brown and RB Jacobs out, G Ingognito in a boot. Then again, no club is healthy at this time of the year and the Raiders do have some depth. Raiders should battle their division rival tough after their disappointing home finale last week. Carr is actually having a pretty good year hitting 70% of his passes with a 19/8 TD/INT mark. His counterpart, Rivers, has that interception problem and I can't trust the Chargers laying over a TD because of it. Moreover, as I mentioned many a times, their tempory home field in Carson brings no home field advantage. There will surely be at least half the sparse crowd rooting for Oakland. Raiders sport an 8-1 ATS mark as a road dog off a SU loss vs less than .500 opponent. Chargers a money burning 0-5-1 ATS as home chalk and 0-8 ATS at home after allowing 35+. With the dog in this series at 16-5 ATS, we'll roll with Oakland. |
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12-22-19 | Ravens -10 v. Browns | 31-15 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Ravens/Browns 1:00: Both of these teams went in different directions following the Browns September 29th 40-25 blowout win at Baltimore. Baltimore proceeded to hang 33.7 PPG on opponents while allowing just 15.7 PPG in their blistering 10 game winning run; meanwhile, the Browns underachieved substantially and will sit out another playoff session. Baltimore, while revenge on mind, will play for a playoff bye and the #1 AFC seed. Browns 2-15 ATS off non-division vs opponent with revenge. We'll look for Lamar and the Ravens' offensive juggernaut to roll. |
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12-21-19 | Rams v. 49ers -6.5 | 31-34 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-21-19 | Bills +7 v. Patriots | 17-24 | Push | 0 | 96 h 56 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-20-19 | Buffalo v. Charlotte +6.5 | 31-9 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
Buffalo/Charlotte 2:00: Question marks with the Bulls which tend to flop in big games. Last season, with a more experienced and talented club, laid an egg in the MAC Championship and then went on to flop in their bowl. This year's Buffalo team still has that potent run game with Patterson and Marks behind the experienced offensive line but their QB Vantrease not a vertical threat nor running threat. On the other hand, I like turnaround specialist HC Will Healy who did an amazing job in his first year getting Charlotte to a bowl for the first time since joining FBS in 2015. He's got a strong run game too along with a versatile QB in Reynolds. The conditions will be windy in Nassau Bahamas and Reynolds gives us a better chance for success than his counterpart. Defenses are similar and Charlotte has a sack specialist in Highsmith (14 sacks) and an outstanding LB Watts (9 sacks.). We'll take the points. |
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12-19-19 | Rockets v. Clippers -4.5 | 122-117 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 22 m | Show | |
12-19-19 | Hofstra +2 v. Princeton | 87-72 | Win | 100 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
Hofstra/Princeton 7:00: Both teams coming off wins but at different intervals. Hofstra delivered a win at home over Stonybrook on the 10th whereas Princeton is coming off an OT win at Iona on the 15th. Princeton can score but must outgun them on a account of poor defense. The Tigers allow a generous 77.1 PPG on 50% shooting! As a matter of fact, they're 3-0 when they score 77+ and 0-7 when they don't hit the 76 point mark. Hofstra is not the greatest defensive team but more sound on that end of the floor. The senior laden Pride which gets 74% of their scoring from seniors: Ray, Coburn, Pemberton and their star G Buie. The Pride is 16-7 ATS on the road and let's not forget that November 21st won outright at UCLA. We'll grab the bucket and the Pride. |
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12-18-19 | Alabama -8.5 v. Samford | 105-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show | |
Alabama/Samford 7:30: At first glance, Samford seems like a play; after all, they're undefeated at home and now getting points from a team that struggles on the road. A second glance though reveals that Samford's home floor is merely an hour from Tuscaloosa. Alabama plans to have a good fan base here that Coach Oats has captured. And 'Tide still has the talent strength to the Bulldogs. Sure, Sharkey is talented and trouble but Alabama goes nine qaulity deep despite early season talent losses to injuries. Tide starting to find their groove in the Nate Oats' system. They cut back significantly on turnovers in last game at Penn State almost upsetting them to go on a 5-1 ATS tear. Samford, however, is coming off a blowout at Hawaii on the 15th. And surely, teams coming back from Hawaii will feel the jet lag, among other things. Tide should deliver here. |
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12-17-19 | Florida -5 v. Providence | 83-51 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
Florida/Providence 7:00: This one is set at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY and I'm going with the Gators here. They're coming off a loss to #19 Butler and Coach White wasn't happy pointing out the immaturity of his team. I heard that message before and it should be a wake up call for the Gators; after all, they do have a signature win this season over Xavier so they're definitely capable of delivering here. Providence, on the other hand, is a shaky 1-8 ATS despite being handed a light schedule. The Friars do have a dangerous backcourt in Duke and Pipkins but overall, Gators much deeper and talented. Gators 6-1 ATS as a neutral floor favorite and we'll lay a little wood here. |
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12-16-19 | Colts +10 v. Saints | 7-34 | Loss | -123 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
Colts/Saints 8:15: Will take the points with a Colts team that has a tendency to stick around and fight. Sure, the Colts are looking for their first SU win since November 17th; however, they've lost 4 of their last 6 by 4 points or fewer. And consider this, Indy sports a sweet 11-2 ATS mark vs teams above .500. Brissett has done an admirable job at the controls. He has an underrated offensive line that should spring 1000+ yard rusher Mack against a Saints defensive front missing two key players in Rankins and Davenport (out for season). And even without Hilton (questionable), others step up such as Pascal. Colts have done well in the red zone where they convert 64% of the time. Saints defense struggles in the red zone allowing nearly 60% conversion. Colts defensively, they'll need to step up like they did vs KC earlier in the year. Colts are 23-9 ATS in December and 5-1 ATS on MNF. Saints struggle at 1-5 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games vs non division opponents. And coming off the physical battle with SF, they won't have an easy time here. |
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12-15-19 | Dolphins v. Giants -3 | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Giants 1:00: Not a fan of the Giants' defense lead by a lame duck DC Bettcher. Giants' defense confused at times, out of position, stupid penalties and poor tackling; nevertheless, Dolphins out of the their element here this time of year. Dolphins off a crushing controversial loss and sport a 21-33 ATS in December and 1-4 ATS in Week 15. With a defense in the bottom of the NFL in points allowed (31), Eli Manning should bring back the old magic to keep him above .500 in his outstanding career. Giants are 6-1 ATS after the Eagles, 5-2 ATS off a double-digit loss at home, 4-1 ATS in Week 15, and 7-2 ATS vs teams below .500. NY should get it done here as Manning outguns Fitzpatrick. |
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12-15-19 | Broncos +10.5 v. Chiefs | 3-23 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Broncos/Chiefs 1:00: Broncos was a big play for me last week and I'm staying on them here. They're 2-0 SU with QB Drew Lock at the controls as he's finding a rhythm uplifting the offense significantly. Chiefs' defense leaves much to be desired. A good mix with RB Lindsay, against a KC run-stop-unit ranked 28th in the NFL, should open up some more successful play-action for Lock. Denver's looking to avenge their embarrassing 30-6 home loss in Week 7. Denver 6-0 ATS off back-to-back SU ATS wins (last as a dog). KC coming off a huge win over NE and we'll bet their a little sluggish in this one. |
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12-15-19 | Patriots -10 v. Bengals | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Patriots/Bengals 1:00: The only incentive Cincinnati has at this stage is to tank and lock in Joe Burrow as their franchise QB. Patriots in a bad mood after a rare 0-2 skid and should take it out on the floundering Bengals. Bengals' Mixon running well but Belichick's defense should step up their game here taking away the biggest threat. As for QB Dalton, he lost another weapon in Tate (knee) last week. With limited weaponry and a poor defense, a good bounce back game for the incumbent champs should ensue. |
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12-14-19 | Army +11.5 v. Navy | 7-31 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 12 m | Show | |
Army/Navy 3:00: Historically a low scoring game, this one sets up as one too. With light drizzle, and two run games worth note (Navy #1/Army #2), lots of clock eating here. At the same time, both teams very similar in production on both sides of the ball. QBs Perry (Navy) and Hopkins (Army) lead dangerous triple option teams - both limited in passing. Hopkins did bang up his leg in the last game in Hawaii but good to go. Army surely underachieved this season and won't be bowling but they were in almost every game; as a matter of fact, they lost 6 of 7 by single digits. Army won this one 3 straight and they won't be bowling this year; however, Army will consider this as their bowl keeping this one tight. Army the call. |
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12-14-19 | Syracuse +3 v. Georgetown | 79-89 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Syracuse/Georgetown 1:00: Georgetown, already lost Gardner and Alexander, now down to 7 scholarship players after the latest incident involving LeBlanc and Akinjo. Probably not directly going to come in to play in this game, but the depth will later in the year. For now, it's bad for the program. In this series, the road team has gone 10-2 ATS and the dog 8-3 ATS. Boeheim has his zone defense gradually working in to a disruptive force, forcing turnovers and creating points off it. Georgetown is turnover prone (16.7 per game) and should fall victim here. We'll look for Hughes and company to deliver the goods. |
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12-14-19 | Oregon +3.5 v. Michigan | 71-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Oregon/Michigan Noon: Oregon has been a dangerous road team under Altman for years. The Ducks have covered 10 of their last 11 road games and were extremely competitive this season going 3-1 ATS against the likes of Memphis (W), Seton Hall (W), Gonzaga (OT) and a narrow loss at UNC. Sure, Oregon has a few players that will sit out but depth is there and Altman know how to use his bench. We'll look for Pritchard and company to keep it tight for the Michigan defense (173rd in nation) will allow the Ducks to stay in it. Â |
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12-13-19 | Nebraska v. Indiana -16 | 90-96 | Loss | -111 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
Nebraska/Indiana 8:00: At first glance, Nebraska seems to be the call; after all, they beat them outright last year on Indiana's home floor and have Fred Hoiberg, who had success years ago at Iowa State, now running the show. With a closer look, however, we see that Nebraska hasn't beaten a good team yet and the cupboard was left bare for Hoiberg in terms of quality recruits. The 'Huskers are poor defensively and worse - ridiculously bad on the defensive boards (next to last in NCAA Division 1A) and a pathetic free throw shooting team at 56%. Therefore, if they don't outscore their opponent, they most likely won't win. That doesn't bode well against the vengeful Hoosiers. Indiana is gradually getting back their early season scoring prowess as they get healthy. Hoosiers are a strong boarding team (9th in the nation) and can put points on the board (81 PPG). They're 5-1 ATS at home and 5-2 ATS on Fridays. Hoosiers should roll. |
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12-12-19 | Jets v. Ravens -15.5 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
Jets/Ravens 8:20: Jets are winning games but against lightweights. And when they did beat up some winning teams - Dallas 10/13 and I had them against Oakland on Nov 24th, it was at East Rutherford. Going on the road is a different story. The Jets are in the bottom of the NFL in offensive rushing and it will hurt them here. Baltimore brings a hard charging defense that's quite opportunistic (+8 turnover margin). And Darnold is at his most vulnerable on the road. On the other hand, Lamar Jackson and company are cranking it up and the #1 rushing team in the NFL at 200.9 YPG is rolling over defenses. Sure, NY has a good run-stop-unit but Q. Williams (neck) is a big defensive line force who will be missed; moreover, the Jets' secondary will be without 3 of their starters. Remember, Jackson has thrown 28 TD passes this season including 16 over the last 5 games. Baltimore juggernaut should continue to roll in prime time as they vie for the #1 seed. |
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12-12-19 | 76ers v. Celtics +1.5 | 115-109 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
12-11-19 | Wisconsin v. Rutgers -2 | 65-72 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
Wisconsin/Rutgers 7:00: Rutgers no joke at home. A good scoring mix lead by Harper Jr., Johnson and Baker. And they've got some juice coming off the bench with Yeboah and Young. Rutgers off a pair of tough road losses including Sunday staying within the number at Michigan State. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is feeling pretty good about themselves off a blowout over Indiana; however, they struggle to generate offense on the road and ranked 256th offensively. Rutgers can D UP at home and I like them here. Home team in this series is 5-1 ATS. Rutgers the call. |
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12-10-19 | Maryland v. Penn State +2 | 69-76 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
Maryland/Penn State 7:00: This series has been home dominant with the home team winning outright the last 5 times. Penn State has a strong floor and a veteran team coming off a blowout loss to a very good team in Ohio State. Penn State was in that game (trailing by single digits with 14 minutes left) until their star - Lamar Stevens fouled out. Penn State goes when Stevens goes. He does have a good surrounding cast that should keep Cowan and company in check. Maryland came back from the dead to win their last game at Illinois. Maryland won't have an easy time here. We'll grab the bucket. Â |
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12-08-19 | Seahawks +1 v. Rams | 12-28 | Loss | -111 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
Seattle/Los Angeles 8:20: Seattle has been doing their best work on the road (6-1 ATS) and, as a I mentioned before, Pete Carroll is the prime time king. Seattle won this matchup in Week 5 yet are playing better at this stage of the season. Mid season arrivals - Clowney and Josh Gordon are making big contributions. And RB Penny adding to the potent run game with Carson behind a strong offensive line. OC Shottenheimer doing a good job mixing it up as QB Wilson continues to play at a high level. Rams want revenge from earlier season defeat; however, they're just 1-10 ATS at home with revenge off a division road game. We'll ride the Seahawks here. |
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12-08-19 | 49ers +2.5 v. Saints | Top | 48-46 | Win | 100 | 33 h 13 m | Show |
49ers/Saints 1:00: 49ers fought a hard battle last week and nearly pulled off a win vs the hottest team in the NFL. San Francisco's defense exhibited its quickness last week doing a pretty good job against the MVP frontrunner - Lamar Jackson. 49ers' defense will have another stern test against a potent New Orleans' offense. I believe the #1 defense in the NFL is up for the challenge. Saints didn't look all that sharp last week vs a weak Atlanta defense. Saints will face a significant upgrade in front four and secondary. Saints miss RB Ingram (Baltimore) ranking 17th in rushing this year. That will be a problem against this hard nosed SF defense. On the other side of the ball, the 49ers have a strong run game with a loaded backfield and Garoppolo has sharpened in recent weeks after TE Kittle got back in the lineup. 49ers a strong road team at 5-1 ATS and I like them here. |
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12-08-19 | Broncos +10.5 v. Texans | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Broncos/Texans 1:00: Broncos on a nice 4-1 ATS run and most likely found their future QB in Lock who did some good things last week against the Chargers. They've covered 5 of their last 7 road dog roles. Sure, Watson is playing great but him and his mates should have a bit of a letdown off that huge win against New England last week. Houston is a mere 1-8 ATS at home vs the AFC West and just 1-5 ATS as home chalk. We'll look for Denver to keep it tight here. |
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12-08-19 | Colts +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Colts/Bucs 1:00: Colts are a respectable 6-2 ATS on the road, 3-1-1 ATS as a road dog, and 5-0 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. Reich is a quality coach at figuring out what needs to be done. He put them on a nice roll down the stretch last year and should be able to rebound here; after all, Colts are 7-1 ATS on the road vs the NFC South, 5-0 ATS in this series. Colts actually outgained the Titans last week but 3 turnovers did them in. We'll look for refined play here vs a Bucs team that's 8-20 ATS as home chalk, 2-10 ATS in Week 14 and failed to cover in their last 5 home games. Colts' defense had a winning formula at KC vs the potent Chiefs offense on October 6th. We'll look for Indy to force Winston in mistakes today. And with the emergence of Pascal at WR, Brissett and company should work a TB pass defense that allows 282 YPG. Bucs a dismal 2-13 ATS off back to back away games and should succumb here. |
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12-07-19 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State -15.5 | Top | 21-34 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
Wisconsin/OSU 8:00: Hard to stop the Buckeye machine this year with a perfect season and 9-2 ATS in the process. Moreover, they usually stay hungry this time of year with a 4-1 ATS December ledger. They dominated Wisconsin in Columbus back on October 26th taking away Wisconsin's biggest threat - Jonathan Taylor. OSU allows a miniscule 232.6 YPG and surely QB Jack Coan isn't going to dent the ball hawking secondary. OSU usually wins the battle in the trenches and Wisconsin can't beat them there. On the other hand, OSU QB Justin Fields (MCL) is good to go after the scare at Michigan. He's got a crap load of weapons including J.K. Dobbins to do more damage. OSU feeds off blowouts as their 10-2 ATS mark off a SU win of 20+ indicates. OSU the call. |
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12-07-19 | Georgia +7.5 v. LSU | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
Georgia/LSU 4:00: LSU has solidified a spot in the CFP. They have the most likely Heisman Trophy candidate QB Burrow who pilots the top offense in the nation. However, I do like the Georgia defense that is very difficult to run and pass against. They absolutely shut down a potent Auburn offense for nearly 4 quarters before a late surge as Georgia loosened up coverage. I'm going to look for them to keep Burrow in check early. Offensively, the Bulldogs feed off RB Swift who is good to go after sustaining a shoulder bruise last week. LSU has had some defensive lapses this year and Georgia can run the football. Georgia desperately needs a win here to qualify for that 4th CFP spot. We'll look for them to make a run for the money. |
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12-07-19 | Baylor +9.5 v. Oklahoma | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
Baylor/Oklahoma Noon: I was on Baylor in the first meeting and I'm staying on them here despite the return of Oklahoma's top gun WR Lamb. Baylor has an underappreciated defense that is top tier in the Big 12 and 13th ranked in the nation in terms of allowing points (18.4 PPG). Brewer and company can also move the football and proved it in the first matchup. The Bears are coming off a blow out win at Kansas on the 30th. Rhule will surely have his boys fired up for this one in an opportunity for an outside shot at that fourth spot in the playoffs. Rhule is 16-3 ATS against conference foes coming off a double-digit win. Baylor the call. |
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12-06-19 | Clippers +4.5 v. Bucks | 91-119 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
Clippers/Bucks 8:35: Bucks have been on a roll but this is their first big challenge in a while and Los Angeles should be up for it. Clippers, off since Tuesday, are 4-0 ATS on 2+ days rest and won 11 of the last 16 in this series. Clippers Leonard (knee) should be good to go and has a hot supporting cast to enter this one. Harrell and Patterson have been picking up their game of late to add support to George, Leonard and Williams. Bucks' Greek Freak having an MVP caliber year and he's well supported, but Clippers should keep it tight in a game they're up for. |
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12-06-19 | Oregon +7 v. Utah | 37-15 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
Oregon/Utah 8:00: Utah has been a money making machine this year with 8 straight covers; however, Oregon has a veteran offense with a future #1 NFL draft choice in QB Justin Herbert to keep it close. Sure, the weather conditions are poor with rain and high winds on a soggy Levi Stadium grass in Santa Clara; however, Oregon has a run game too at 181 YPG. It won't be easy against one of the top defenses in every category across the board. Nevertheless, like Oregon to keep it tight. Remember, Utah was in a similar situation last year leading into the conference championship and ended up laying an egg to a lesser talented Washington team. And defensively, Oregon underrated with a solid run-stop unit and ball hawking secondary. Ducks the call. |
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12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears +3 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
Cowboys/Bears 8:20: Cowboys have the overall talent edge but still unable to put it together. They haven't defeated a winning team all season and now laying points on the road vs a .500 team. We'll take the points with a Bears team that's 6-1 ATS off back-to-back wins vs a conference opponent. Bears' offense not a juggernaut by any stretch but Trubisky showed promise last week at Detroit as receivers other than Robinson and Cohen are starting to create separation. Also, RB Montgomery not the back Jordan Howard was, but starting to excel as the season progresses. Dallas does have the #1 offense but unable to capitalize and finish in the end zone. Tonight, they face a pretty good defense under Pagano that needs to show the passion of their former DC Fangio. We'll look for that to emerge tonight in a much needed win for Chicago to stay in the playoff race. |
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12-03-19 | Duke +6.5 v. Michigan State | 87-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Duke/Michigan State 9:30: Neither team is making money for anybody this season for both teams overpriced early; however, Duke's Coach K is dangerous as a dog as once again demonstrated with their 11/5 win over Kansas as a 2' point pup. Moreover, Coach K has virtually owned Izzo on a 7-1 SU run and he's still stewing over the one point loss in the NCAA's at the end of March. Duke won't have their third leading scorer Cassius Stanley (hamstring) but Baker and a host of talent can surely fill in. Sure, Michigan State's PG Winston is a game changer but Duke has a pretty great PG of their own in Tre Jones. And C Carey Jr. can measure up to Michigan State's big man Tillman. Duke is 10-3 ATS vs the Big Ten and you can always expect a Coach K team to play at maximum effort in these marquee games. Duke the call. |
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12-03-19 | Pistons v. Cavs +3.5 | 127-94 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 22 m | Show | |
Detroit/Cleveland 7:05: Detroit feeling pretty good about themselves after their home blowout win over San Antonio. And the public has reacted positively too labeling Detroit as the overwhelming bet tonight. However, if you step back and look at the Pistons recent history, you don't want to be laying points on the road with this team. They're 1-5 ATS on the road vs teams with a winning percentage below .400. They've covered once out of seven times in Cleveland, and they're 0-3-1 ATS following a win of 10 or more points. Sure, Beilein's boys are taking it on the chin but his young bunch is showing signs of improvement. Cleveland covered at home in their last game vs Milwaukee and PG Garland stepping up his game. Cleveland 20-7 ATS vs teams below .400 and we'll take the points here. |
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12-02-19 | Vikings v. Seahawks -2.5 | 30-37 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
Vikings/Seahawks 8:15: Vikings are well rested and that usually helps this late in the season for a contending team. Minnesota, however, is a mere 2-8 ATS following a bye. They're also a dismal 2-10 ATS on MNF. Throw in Thielen as a scratch and that will surely help Seattle's secondary. Not a fan of this year's Seattle defense but they've become increasingly opportunistic forcing 16 takeaways over the last 6 games. And now that Penny broke out as the lead horse in the backfield, him and Carson can help QB Wilson stay on path as an MVP candidate. Seattle is 5-1 ATS at home vs Minnesota. Sure, Zimmer and company in a revenge mode from last year but I'm staying with the prime time coaching king - Pete Carroll. Seattle the call. |
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12-01-19 | Patriots -3 v. Texans | 22-28 | Loss | -114 | 16 h 17 m | Show | |
Patriots/Texans 8:20: Patriots' offense should finally step up their game tonight; after all, they face a Romeo Crennel defense that's in the bottom tier in passing yards allowed, red zone defense, 3rd down efficiency to name a few. Without DE Watt (IR), the Texans' struggle to create a pass rush. Overrated Crennel will attempt to blitz forcing man coverage and QB Brady will pick the weak Texans' secondary apart. Sure, the Patriots had some sickness this week but should be up to speed tonight. And they'll get back a few receivers (Sanu & Dorsett) for Brady. New England has virtually owned the Texans and Belichick loves going against his old former assistants. Patriots' defense should continue to find ways to disrupt offenses and we'll look for them to keep Watson in check. Patriots the call. |
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12-01-19 | 49ers +6 v. Ravens | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
SF/Baltimore 1:00: Baltimore on a big roll with 7 straight wins outscoring foes 135 to 26 in the process. Rams were the latest victim as Wade Phillips' defense looked lost in assignments as Baltimore gashed them with Ingram and Lamar Jackson. And surely the Rams' defensive personnel was a step slow to the speed of Baltimore. Today, SF's #1 defense in terms of total yards allowed and passing yards, has the speed to contain Jackson providing assignment football is coordinated correctly. Based on how SF played mobile QBs this year, and they've faced a few good ones (Wilson, Murray), we'll look for them to do a decent job here. On the other side of the ball, Garoppolo has been in nice rhythm over the last 5 games with 13/4 TD/INT. And TE Kittle should be good to go after resting a few practice days while RB Breida should be back; moreover, T Staley (finger) possibly good to go as well. Furthermore, the SF defense is relatively healthy and the fastest defense Lamar Jackson and company has faced. Armstead and Bosa are nightmares as the bookends. DC Saleh has been dialing up good schemes. We'll look for SF to keep it tight here. |
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12-01-19 | Bucs v. Jaguars +3 | 28-11 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Bucs/Jaguars 1:00: Last week, Jaguars ran into a vengeful Titans team but should rebound in this spot. Jaguars' QB Foles usually flourishes when the odds are stacked against him. He is now 0-2 in his return to the lineup and questions abound about going back to Minshew III. We'll look for him to torch the Buccaneers' poor secondary which is in the bottom tier of the NFL. On the other hand, Bucs are 0-5 ATS off a SU win and Arians is 1-7 ATS on the road off a division game vs a non-division opponent. Winston putting up big numbers but throwing way too many interceptions. We'll look for Jax to deliver here as a dog. Dog in this series 7-1 ATS. |
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12-01-19 | Browns v. Steelers +2.5 | 13-20 | Win | 101 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Browns/Steelers 1:00: Browns will miss DE Garrett (suspended) more than the Steelers will miss QB Rudolph (fined and benched). Hodges stepped in nicely in place of Rudolph (benched) to deliver the win. Steelers looking to avenge the loss at Cleveland on the 14th. Cleveland hasn't won in Pittsburgh since 2003! I don't like Cleveland laying points here. They're 0-7 ATS after a win of 14+ and just 6-21-1 ATS vs teams above .500. Pittsburgh a sweet 11-1 ATS at home off a division game with revenge against a division opponent. And the Browns are thin at OT with Robinson in concussion protocol. Not good vs a good edge rush team of Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh the call. |
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11-30-19 | Wisconsin v. Minnesota +3 | 38-17 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
Wisconsin/Minnesota 3:30: Gophers turning in a magical season and I'm staying on them here. Minnesota beat up the Badgers last year 37-15 at Wisconsin. This year, Minnesota has a better football team across the board. QB Tanner Morgan has been outstanding managing games and has a pair of 1000+ receiving yard receivers in Johnson and Bateman; moreover, the run game consistently cooks with 1000+ yard rusher Rodney Smith. On the other side of the ball, the Golden Gophers possess the 11th ranked defense (yards allowed) and have an outstanding pass defense. The key, of course, is stopping RB Jonathan Taylor. Badgers are on a 1-4 ATS slide and just 5-11 ATS off a SU win. They've failed to cover in 5 of their last 7 November tilts. Gophers 32-16-2 ATS in November and I'm rowing the boat with Fleck and the Gophers.  |
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11-30-19 | Wyoming +11 v. Air Force | 6-20 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Wyoming/Air Force 2:00: Wyoming is an amazing 10-0 ATS in this series. Cowboys' defense plays the run well (2.8 YPC) and we'll look for more assignment defensive football against AF's vaunted triple option. Wyoming the call. |
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11-30-19 | Wake Forest -3.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 30-39 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
WF/Syracuse 12:30: Nothing left to play for but pride for Syracuse. An underachiever this year at 4-7 and home for the holidays. On the other hand, WF overachieved this year and going bowling. Morever, Clawson and his boys are out to avenge last year's 41-24 home shellacking. This season, boasts the 17th ranked offense in the nation and should move the ball up and down the swiss cheese Syracuse defense (111th ranked). Offensively, Syracuse has had QB problems all season. Tommy Devito did not live up to expectations; of course, he had big shoes to fill with Dungey (Browns) leaving. WF usually wins against losing teams and should deliver here.  |
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11-30-19 | Ohio State -8 v. Michigan | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
OSU/Mich Noon: Michigan is at their best this season at home (6-0 SU) but still not talented enough to win this one. OSU is on a 16-2 SU run in this series and Harbaugh is 0-4 (2-2 ATS) vs them. OSU has Heisman trophy candidates (QB Fields and DE Young ) on both sides of the ball. Throw in a top rated defense and a punishing offensive line with an underrated RB Dobbins and outstanding wide-outs. Last week, OSU made costly errors (fumbling on Penn State's one yard line) to keep from covering. Today, look for total focus as the Buckeyes roll. |
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11-29-19 | Virginia Tech -2.5 v. Virginia | 30-39 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech/Virginia Noon: If this game was played early in the season, Virginia would have the edge and would be my undisputed selection; however, Virginia is a money burning 4-19 SU in their last 2 games of the year. The Cavaliers AD did them a favor this time, however, scheduling lightweight Liberty last week after their bye week. Today, the Hokies are a significant upgrade for them. VTech has compiled a sweet 6-1 SU/ATS run ever since QB Hooker has been inserted in as the starter. He has not thrown an interception. His counterpart - Perkins - has been very sharp too; however, since well loved veteran DC Bud Foster announced that this will be his last year coaching, his defense has been lights out; as a matter of fact, they're coming off 2 straight shutouts! Virginia's defense has had some key injuries including star C Hall (ankle) and that will be trouble against Fuente's bunch who has his run and pass game cooking. VTech 5-2 ATS at Virginia and I'm rolling with the Hokies. |
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11-29-19 | Miami-OH +3.5 v. Ball State | 27-41 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Miami OH/Ball State Noon: On paper, it appears Ball State has a significant edge with QB Drew Plitt passing for big numbers while leading the offense to 34.3 PPG! However, the Cardinals' defense is too much in a giving mode and I'm not buying in. Miami OH has a sluggish offense but do play sound defense. They've found ways to win 7 games this season and I'm staying on them here. Redhawks have covered 13 of the last 16 conference games, and 4-1 ATS in Muncie; furthermore, they're 6-1 ATS in November. Ball State a sluggish 3-13 ATS at home vs teams above .500. Miami OH the call. |
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11-28-19 | Saints -6.5 v. Falcons | 26-18 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
11-28-19 | Bills +7 v. Cowboys | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
11-28-19 | Bears -4.5 v. Lions | 24-20 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
11-27-19 | Magic v. Cavs +1.5 | 116-104 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 60 m | Show | |
Magic/Cavs 7:05: Orlando has not won a game on the road this season (0-7 SU) and should not be laying anything as a traveler; especially without Vucevic (ankle) and even Gordon (ankle). Cavaliers' Clarkson and Sexton buying into Beilein's system and this should be a good test for them. And with Nance Jr. filling in well for Love (back), we'll look for the Cavaliers to notch a home win. Cavaliers 20-7-1 ATS vs team below .400. Cav's 2-0 SU at home in this series. With the dog at 7-1 ATS in this series, grab the Cavaliers. |
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11-27-19 | Dayton v. Kansas -3.5 | 84-90 | Win | 100 | 1 h 33 m | Show | |
Dayton/Kansas 5:00: Dayton a dangerous team with Obi Toppin shooting an astounding 72.3% from the field and can knock down the 3. However, Kansas can offset his effort with big man Azubuike. And Kansas has a better balanced backcourt led by Dotson. Kansas defense much more sound and that ultimately will be the decision maker. Self is a successful tournament coach whereas his counterpart - Grant - never got his teams to the NCAA Sweet 16. Kansas the call. |
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