Cracking the Code: How to Find Good Sports Bets

Recommended Bet: Atlanta United +144

*3 Star Free Play Under* The Western Michigan Broncos and Kent State Golden Flashes both play at an extremely slow tempo. Both teams have been very run heavy in recent weeks as well. 

Western Michigan is 125th in passing explosiveness. That has been the weakness of the Kent State defense, but I'm not sure Western Michigan can take advantage of that weakness. Kent State is a solid 59th in PPA/rush allowed so far this year.

Kent State's offense is third worst in the country scoring just 9.8 points per game. There isn't much reason to hope for brighter things here anytime soon. 

A slow game where the clock keeps moving.

Take the under.

(7-1 Last Weekend in football. MAC Total of the Year is up as well as several other plays for Saturday. Join in!) 

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Oregon State -15

Oregon State is one of the most improved teams in the country.  The Beavers are 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS this season with their two losses coming at Houston by 13 as 21-point dogs and Texas Tech by 11 as 25.5-point dogs.  They actually outgained Texas Tech by 120 yards in that loss, too.

The Beavers have since put together three straight blowout wins over Montana by 35 as 17.5-point favorites, UTEP by 26 as 11.5-point favorites and Colorado State by 30 as 7-point favorites, with the latter two both coming on the road.

This Oregon State offense is one of the best in the country.  The Beavers are scoring 37.0 points per game, averaging 497 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play.  Braden Atkinson is one of the best QB's in the country that nobody knows about.  He is completing 69.5% of his passes for 1,850 yards with a 16-to-2 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for a pair of scores.  WR Jesse Legree is electric, catching 28 balls for 741 yards and 9 TD.

San Diego State has been a dumpster fire this season.  The Aztecs are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS this season.  They beat FCS Portland State in their opener before three straight blowout losses to UCLA by 28, James Madison by 13 and Toledo by 25.  

The market came in heavily against the Aztecs last week as they were battling a mumps outbreak.  It resulted in one of the most misleading finals of the entire college football season.  They upset Texas State 31-29 as 9.5-point home dogs.  They did so despite allowing 565 yards to the Bobcats while managing just 239 yards themselves, winning that game while getting outgained by a whopping 326 yards.  They benefited from a 96-yard kickoff return TD and a 32-yard INT return TD.

Oregon State will not let San Diego State off the hook this week.  The Beavers are going to be able to name their number against a poor SDSU defense that has allowed more than 1,000 yards the last two weeks to Toledo and Texas State.  This SDSU offense is also poor averaging just 303.8 yards per game and 4.8 per play this season.  They won't be able to match the Beavers score for score.  They are also still dealing with the lingering effects of the mumps.  Bet Oregon State Saturday.

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1* NFL - Giants/Commanders FREE PICK on Commanders -3.5

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Chargers +3.5 

Nevada nearly upset Air Force last week, losing by three points in overtime, while covering the 5 1/2-point spread. The Wolf Pack rank 16th in pass defense.

But nearly my entire handicap is a fade on UTEP. The Miners are just dreadful. They have played four FBS teams and have been outscored, 197-31, with the latest loss coming to New Mexico, 61-7, in their first-ever Mountain West Conference game last week.

The Miners can't pass and are averaging fewer than 3 yards per carry rushing versus Division I opponents. Their starting quarterback, EJ Colson Jr., is questionable with a concussion.

The Wolf Pack hold edges in every area against UTEP with the exception of possibly wide receiver. So a double digit Nevada victory should be forthcoming. 

1* Free Pick on UNLV +4

North Dakota State is legit.

The Bison are 5-0 this season, averaging 33.6 points a game while allowing just 9.8.

They shut out Wyoming 28-0 last week.

None of that is in dispute.

But look closer at the schedule.

Three of those five wins came against FCS-level opponents in Jacksonville State, Fordham and Sacramento State.

The dominant defensive numbers were built largely against offenses that can't push back.

The one time NDSU faced an FBS team with real scoring punch, the game changed.

At Air Force on September 13, the Bison won 38-32 and gave up 32 points.

That is the blueprint for this spot.

When the opponent can actually move the ball, this defense is beatable.

UNLV can move the ball.

The Rebels just hung 39 on California in a 39-31 win last week.

They sit 3-2 this season, and both home games have been competitive: the win over Cal and a 27-21 loss to Memphis back in August.

Yes, the 44-6 loss at North Texas was ugly.

But that was a road game a month ago, and this team has answered since, winning at Akron 38-10 before the Cal game.

Then there is the number itself.

Books know the public respects the NDSU brand, and the line reflects it.

An FBS home team getting 4 points from an FCS visitor on a Saturday night in Vegas is a spot where the price does the work.

This game profiles a lot like the Air Force game: close, high-scoring enough, decided late.

Four points in that script is real value.

I like UNLV

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Rice/East Carolina UNDER 47.5

The Key: It's going to be windy at East Carolina with 15 MPH winds suspected throughout this game.  Rice is basically a triple-option, run-heavy offense anyway and will keep the clock moving.  Rice averages 48 rush attempts per game and 18.0 PPG.  East Carolina also runs the ball more with 32 rush attempts compared to 29 pass attempts per game.  The Pirates have a very poor offense this season scoring only 24.0 PPG.  But the Pirates do have a solid defense holding opponents to 3.2 rush yards per carry and 4.8 yards per play.  They will shut down Rice, and the Owls have an above average defense to keep the Pirates in check as well.  Take the UNDER.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Central Florida +10½ -108

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Arizona State -20.5

The Arizona State Sun Devils are looking to take out their frustration on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.  The Sun Devils are coming off a misleading 55-19 home loss to Baylor in which they gave the game away with a -3 turnover differential.  It was similar to their 48-20 loss to Texas A&M that was very misleading with a -3 turnover differential.  They outgained Texas A&M by 114 yards and held them to 255 total yards.  They did beat Kansas 24-17 in London in between and then had a bye week, so they should be pretty fresh for this one.  Hawaii is a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week and it's starting to show.  The Rainbow Warriors are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS this season.  Their offense is broken and missing several key receivers, and their QB is banged up.  They lost by 10 to Stanford, by 15 at home to UNLV, by 17 at Wyoming and by 4 at home to San Jose State.  They are 1-4 despite playing an extremely soft schedule with their lone win coming against New Mexico State.  They won't have much left in the tank for ASU, and they have not fared well when traveling to the mainland in recent years.  This is going to get ugly in a hurry and I'm confident the Sun Devils win by 3-plus TD's.  Give me Arizona State.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Ducks -112

2 TIME CFB Champ Rob Saturday card has the 2026 College TOTAL OF THE YEAR from an 18-0 system dating to 1990 Headlining a powerful card that has SEVERAL Top plays. Comp play below.

The Saturday Comp Play is on Oregon ST -16 at 6:10 eastern. Rob notes that road dogs  like San Diego St at +3 or higher are 0-14 straight up and 2-12 to the spread long term if they scored more than 28 points in a home dog win at +4 or higher and allowed 40 or more in the game prior to the win. The Beavers have won and covered 3 straight and are solid on offense. The Aztecs have been blown out in their road games and they dont have the offense to stay with Oregon St here. They have lost the last 3 games in the series all by 17+ points. Look for Oregon St to cover. GL Rob V-

Joe D’s college football is rolling and comes into this Saturday Red Hot. This week will continue to roll over the books with one of my strongest Saturday cards I can remember. Join me this Saturday and together we will steamroll the books: 1st SLEEPER, USC/PSU WINNER, ACC GAME OF THE MONTH, 2-0 BIG TEN BIG GAME WINNER, 3-1 HI ROLLER, 2-0 BOOKIE BUSTER, RED RIVER RIVALRY WINNER, GEORGIA/ALABAMA WINNER, and 1-0 MWC MONEYMAKER.

Saturday’s Free Winner: Kentucky Wildcats.

Game 350.

4:00 PM PST/7:00 PM EST.

In my opinion, the jury is still out and how good of a team LSU really is. Yes, there are 4-1 straight up, but have only covered two of their five outings this season, and lost their only away game thus far of the 2026 campaign. They have certainly had trouble going into Lexington over the years. Speaking of Kentucky, they have won and covered their last three outings against some solid opposition. In mid-September on the road, they took down Texas A&M 31-21 as a 16.5-point underdog. They then crushed South Alabama as nearly a three-touchdown favorite, and last week also on the road took down South Carolina as a small underdog, 35-34. Granted, the Tigers have the Bulldogs on deck at home while the Wildcats have to take it on the road to face the Sooners. But I still feel this is way too many points to give a very game team playing on their own field. There is no debating how good the statistics are for LSU averaging 43.6 points per game on offense, and only allowing 15.2 PPG on defense. Their rankings are very impressive on both sides of the ball without question. Yes, the Wildcats defense gives up more points and is vulnerable in the air. But their offense is well-balanced, and they have a very smart head coach and offensive coordinator. Please remember the Tigers offense has turned the ball over eight times while the Wildcats “O” has coughed up the ball just four times. By the way, they’ve both snagged six takeaways on defense. I just feel this is way too many points to give a team that’s playing on their home field coming into this matchup with momentum. Take the Kentucky Wildcats. Thank you.

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Chip’s FREE CF Winner

Tennessee at Arkansas 7:30 ET

Razorbacks (+) over Volunteers - I have no problem playing against The Volunteers after what I have seen what they have going at quarterback. He may be fine athlete and a great runner but one thing he is not is a quarterback. Razorbacks are down against this season but can muster enough to keep this one close. Take ARKANSAS!  

The under in London is the number the injury report already priced, and then stopped short of. Philadelphia and Jacksonville are at Tottenham on Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET. The Jaguars are 3-1 and laying 7.5, about -370. The Eagles are 2-2 and getting 7.5, about +295. The total opened 44.5. It is 41.5 or 42 now. Pro-football-reference has the game at 42. That two-point drop is the market admitting the Eagles cannot score. It is not enough of a drop.

Philadelphia is the reason. They are at 18.8 points a game, 26th, and 178.3 passing yards, 30th. Jalen Hurts has 713 yards through the air. Saquon Barkley has 182 on the ground and is not expected to play. Tank Bigsby is on injured reserve. DeVonta Smith, the leading receiver at 235 yards, is questionable with a hamstring. Dallas Goedert is questionable. Hollywood Brown is questionable. Lane Johnson retired. Cam Jurgens was traded. The center is questionable. That is a third-string back, a third center, and a receiver room held together with hope, on a seven-hour flight, for a 9:30 kick. Last week they put up 20 in the first half against the Rams and got shut out in the second. The final was 24-20. A team that can go silent for 30 minutes at home is not a team you buy the over on in London.

Jacksonville is the other half, and it is not a pinball defense. They have allowed 53 points in four games, 13.3 a game, and they lead the league with six interceptions. Trevor Lawrence is completing 69.2 percent with eight touchdowns and two picks. Bhayshul Tuten is the run game. Liam Coen's group is 3-1 and playing like it. A short Eagles offense against a defense that has not given up 20 a game is how a 42 becomes a 34. The Jaguars can win this and still leave the over dead. That is the entire bet.

The spread is the sucker ticket sitting next to it. The look-ahead was Jacksonville -4.5. It is -7.5 because Barkley and Smith hit the report. Laying more than a touchdown at Tottenham, after a three-point steam, on a morning kick, is how London games eat a card. Jacksonville is the better team. The total is the number that matches the bodies.

Bet the under in an NFL game in London when one team is under 20 points a game and missing its lead back. The Eagles' scoring this season: 18.8 a game through four, 26th. The only recent page is a 24-20 loss in which the second half was a zero. One shutout half is not a system. It is the last tape, and the total has already moved two points toward it.

Bet the under against a defense allowing 14 or fewer points a game when the opponent is ranked 25th or worse in scoring. Jacksonville has allowed 53 points in four games, 13.3. Philadelphia is 26th in scoring. The posted total is 42, down from 44.5. Average points in a Jaguars game so far sits near 26 if you only count what they have given up and what a bottom-five offense has managed. The 42 is still a gift.

Shop it. A 42 is the number. A 41.5 is better. If it drifts back to 43 because the public sees Trevor Lawrence and a London shootout that is not on the sheet, take the under and ignore the story. Do not pair it with the Jaguars -7.5. The side is a different bet, and the juice on that moneyline is a tax. The total is the one the injury report wrote and the board only half believed.

My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and West Virginia at 12 noon et on Saturday.

This total has already been bet up considerably as most bettors are expecting plenty of fireworks in this matchup of high-powered offensive teams. We'll go the other way and call for a lower-scoring game than expected. Arizona has scored 34+ points in four of its five games so far this season but it hasn't exactly faced an elite slate of defensive opponents. Those four offensive outbursts came against Northern Arizona, Northern Illinois, Washington State and Cincinnati. Given the relatively weak slate of opponents, it's tough to get a true gauge on the Wildcats but I will point to their toughest matchup to date which came back in Week 2 at BYU - a game that totalled just 45 points as the Cougars prevailed 28-17. West Virginia has actually faced an even weaker strength of schedule than Arizona by most metrics. The Mountaineers offense has feasted on its share of overmatched defensive opponents. After a wild, high-scoring 45-42 defeat at Iowa State last week (their second straight loss), I look for the Mountaineers to settle things down a bit here. I have West Virginia rated as a weaker offensive but stronger defensive team than the stats have shown to this point of the season which is a perfect recipe for an 'under' result on Saturday. Take the under.

#344 ASA FREE PLAY Penn State -1.5 over USC, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This lined opened with USC as a slight favorite but flipped to PSU despite the fact they are coming off back to back losses. The Nittany Lions are now backed into a corner at 0-2 in Big 10 play and in a must win spot at home. Two weeks ago they led Wisconsin by 17 points and lost in the final minutes. Last week they traveled to Northwestern and looked flat from the kick which may have been a result of the Wisconsin loss. The Wildcats were also in a good spot at home opening their brand new stadium on Friday night in prime time. The Cats ran all over Penn State and picked up an easy win. Embarrassing performance to say the least and we expect them to bounce back and play well at home on Saturday night with a whiteout scheduled at Beaver Stadium. USC makes the long travel across the country, a situation they’ve been terrible in over the years. In fact, over the last decade, the Trojans are 4-13 SU and 2-15 ATS when playing in the eastern or central time zones. This team doesn’t travel well which is understandable because their defense usually stinks. No different this year as USC ranks outside the top 100 allowing opponents 6.0 YPP. In their 3 Big 10 games, the Trojan defense is allowing 428 yards on 6.5 YPP and 32 PPG. Their only trip east this season was @ Rutgers and they almost lost outright vs the worst team in the Big 10. USC’s defense allowed 6.7 YPP in that game and needed a 99-yard pick 6 (which was a 14 point swing) to hold on for a 42-35 win. Last week the Trojans got a tight win at home vs Washington 25-21 but were outgained on YPP basis in that one and needed a 48 yard fumble returned for a TD to get the tight win. For the season, PSU still has the better YPP margin at +1.4 to USC’s +1.0. PSU is still a tough place to win as the Nits are 62-14 here since the start of the 2015 season and they are 5-1 vs teams from the west coast during that span. Perfect spot to take Penn State as a very low home chalk.

1*

Eagles vs. Jaguars Under 42.5

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London | Sunday, October 11, 2026, 9:30 AM ET

The Jaguars are riding high. They just won on the road in Cincinnati, Trevor Lawrence has been efficient, and the defense is allowing only 13.3 PPG.

The Eagles are a different story, especially on offense. They went 0-for-12 on third down last week against the Rams, and they're 0-4 ATS, the only team in the league without an ATS win this season.

The injury report doesn't help. Davante Smith is out, and I don't expect Saquon Barkley to play. Backup Tank Bigsby is on IR, so Will Shipley will get the carries. It hardly matters, because you can't run on this Jags defense. That leaves Philadelphia one-dimensional, and they haven't shown me anything to suggest they can move the ball consistently.

Any fight from the Eagles will have to come from their defense, and I think it will be good. Quinyon Mitchell should be back, and this unit has had success against Lawrence before. In their 2024 meeting, they held him to 16-of-31 for 169 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. The Eagles have also won five straight in this series. I think the line is inflated, so I lean Eagles to cover, but the best play is on the total.

Hotspur Stadium has produced low-scoring results lately. The last seven games there have averaged 40.4 points. The Eagles need to turn this into a defensive slugfest, and I don't know how they score against this Jags defense. We'll take the Under, even with the total already down 2 points.

Take Eagles vs. Jaguars Under 42.5.

Let's cash some tickets!

I am going with Alabama here plus or minus the points versus Georgia as the world lines up behind the number 2 team in the land. Both these teams have been cover machines as if late but Alabama has actually been tested by taking on teams like Mississippi State,FSU,Kentucky and South Carolina. Georgia has played all cupcakes aside from Oklahoma. 

Play on Alabama at home laying the points rotation #404

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