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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-06-16 | Nets v. Wizards OVER 212 | Top | 103-121 | Win | 100 | 2 h 46 m | Show |
The pace of play dictates an OVER bet in this game and we expect 220+ points to be scored here. The Nets have struggled to score lately but they've played faster than normal 97.1 possessions per game their last five games (10th fastest) compared to their season average of 95 which is 21st slowest. In their last five games the Nets have the worst defense in the NBA allowing an average of 113.4PPG on 1.168 points per possession. Tonight they face a Wizards team that is rested and loves to play fast. Washington is the 5th fastest paced team in the league at 98.3 possessions per game and average 103.5PPG which is the 10th best number in the league. The Wiz are an 'average' team in terms of defensive efficiency numbers but below average in points allowed per game giving up 104.6PPG which is 10th worst. Washington is fighting for a playoff spot and are going to do what they do best and that's play transition basketball. We expect a very high scoring game here. Bet OVER! |
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04-05-16 | Pistons v. Heat UNDER 201.5 | Top | 89-107 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
#703/704 UNDER Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat 6:35PM CT - We will play UNDER in the Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat game. We like the spot and the number here and our math model projects a total of 192 points on this game. Miami is coming off a 3 game West coast road trip and now face another team in the East jockeying for playoff positioning. The Heat sit in the 5th spot in the East and are trying to move up to 4th for home court in round 1 of the playoffs. Detroit is battling just to get into the post season and teams in this situation usually play a closer to the vest and more deliberately. Miami has recently played in games with end results of 203, 218, 202 (OT) and 209 but those four games were against horrible defensive efficiency teams (Portland, Sacramento, Lakers and Brooklyn) that all rank in the bottom 11 worst in the NBA. Those team also rank in 19th or worst in opponents points allowed per game. Now the Heat face a Pistons team that is 11th in points allowed per game and 10th in defensive efficiency. The Pistons have played in four straight unders against other playoff bound teams much like Miami. They totaled 184 with Chicago, 187 with Dallas, 170 with the Thunder and 207 with Atlanta. In the first two meetings of the season between these clubs they produced total points of 185 two times. These two team both prefer a slower tempo and we can't see either team reaching 100 tonight. Historically speaking the 'under' has cashed 19 of the last 26 meetings in Miami. Bet UNDER! |
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04-03-16 | Pacers v. Knicks UNDER 196 | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
#517/518 UNDER 196 Indiana Pacers @ NY Knicks – 6:30PM CT - We will play UNDER in the Indiana Pacers at NY Knicks game. We don’t expect either team to get to 100 points in this game and expect less than 190 total points. On the season the Pacers have the 3rd most efficient defense in the NBA allowing just 1.028 points per possession. New York will clearly have problems scoring here against this defense as they have the 21st least efficient offense in the NBA not to mention they are the 4th slowest team in the league in terms of pace. Offensively the Knicks have struggled to score points as they’ve managed 94 or more points in just three of their last ten games. In fact, 9 of those last ten games all stayed below the total. Indiana has had their own offensive problems of late with an ‘under’ run of 7 and 3 their last ten games. The Pacers are 5-0 under their last five games when playing without rest which is the case today as they come off a game yesterday versus Philly. The under has cashed in 5 of the last six meetings overall and 5 of the last six in New York. Expect a low scoring game here today. |
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04-02-16 | Villanova v. Oklahoma UNDER 146 | Top | 95-51 | Push | 0 | 119 h 1 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UNDER 146 Points - Oklahoma vs Villanova, Saturday at 6:05 PM ET We think the defenses will have a huge advantage here. First of all, both of these defenses are very good. They each rank in the top 13 nationally in defensive efficiency. These two have played 8 games combined thus far in the NCAA tourney and have allowed only one team to reach 70 points. Five of those eight opponents ranked in the top 45 nationally in offensive efficiency including 3 in the top 12 (Kansas, Miami FL, and Oregon). NRG Stadium in Houston is hardly a shooter’s paradise. That’s bad news for these two teams who BOTH rely heavily on making shots from beyond the arc. 33% of Villanova’s points come from 3-point land and 39% of Oklahoma’s come from deep. This is a massive stadium that seats almost 72,000 people. The floor is raised and the back drop for shooting is terrible. One assistant coach who has played here in the past described it as “a court floating in the great abyss” because of the wide open feel. The last Final 4 here was in 2011. The final scores of those 3 games were 56-55, 70-62, and 53-41 which was the National Championship game. In that game the winner, UConn, shot just 34% while the loser, Butler, hit a whopping 19% of their shots. More recently, the South Regional was held here just last year. The four teams involved (Duke, UCLA, Utah, and Gonzaga) combined to shoot 26% from beyond the arc in the three games. All four were very solid 3-point shooting teams ranking in the top 75 nationally. The scores of those 3 games last year were 63-57, 66-52, and 74-62. You get the point. Since NRG Stadium opened in 2002, there have been 30 college teams that have played here. Those teams have combined to shoot only 32% from 3-point land. To give you a better perspective of that number, if a team shot 32% for the season this year, they would rank 280th out of 351 teams. Top notch defenses combined with teams that rely on the deep ball = a low scoring game here. Take the UNDER! |
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04-02-16 | Villanova -135 v. Oklahoma | Top | 95-51 | Win | 100 | 79 h 48 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Villanova -135 on the money line over Oklahoma, Saturday at 6:05 PM ET Nova is simply the better team right now on our opinion. They have some extra motivation as well as their worst performance of the year, by far, was in early December in Hawaii when they lost by 23 points to this Oklahoma team. This solid shooting Wildcat team hit only 31% of their shots for the game and just 12% from beyond the arc. The first number was a season low and the 2nd was their next to worst performance from 3 this season. Villanova was actually favored by 5 in that game. This team is lightyears better than they were at that point. They have a number of players that can carry them offensively with 5 players basically averaging 10 or more PPG. Oklahoma relies very heavily on Buddy Hield to put points on the board (he’s scored over 36% of the Sooners points in the NCAA Tourney) and if he is off this team is in trouble. We think that will be the case on Saturday. This venue, NRG Stadium, is very tough on shooters. It’s a gigantic stadium with a terrible backdrop for shooting. Three point shooters are affected big time and that’s where Hield and Oklahoma live and die. They rely more on the 3-point shot than any other team remaining with 39% of their points coming from deep. Problem is, the 30 teams that have played in this venue have only combined to shoot 32% from deep. That’s a big problem for Oklahoma who’s already attempted 75 three’s in their last 3 games! Nova also likes to shoot the 3 but they’ve adjusted some in the Big Dance and pushed the ball inside the arc as well. The Wildcats have attempted a full 24 fewer 3 points shots than the Sooners over the last 3 games. Villanova ranks higher in offensive efficiency, higher in defensive efficiency, they turn teams over at a much higher rate, and they are better from the FT line hitting over 78% as a team. The Cats just beat the #1 overall seed in the Dance handing a red hot Kansas team a loss to get to the final 4. We think they win here and move onto the National Championship game on Monday Night. |
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04-01-16 | Wizards -8 v. Suns | Top | 106-99 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
Play on the Washington Wizards minus the points over the Phoenix Suns. In wake of a really bad outing we expect the Wizards to bounce back here with their Playoff lives on the line. Washington is 3 games behind the 8th place Pacers and need this win in the worst way. Phoenix has just 20 wins on the season which makes them the 3rd worst team in the NBA. If they stay in this position they have a much better shot at getting a top 3 pick in the lottery which is critical when you look at the class declaring for the draft. Yes, we know we are laying a premium price with this road favorite but the Wiz were just favored by 9 over the Lakers in L.A. and won by 13 so it's not totally out of line. The Suns have the 3rd worst overall point differential in the NBA at -7.3PPG, 4th worst defensive efficiency rating and 3rd to last offensive efficiency number. Washington is one of the better shooting teams in the league at 45.8% and they should take advantage of a Suns defense that has one of the worst shooting percentage D's in the NBA. On the flip side the Suns won't take advantage of the Wizards defense as they are one of the worst shooting teams in the league. Phoenix has shot 41.9 percent while averaging 97.9 points over its last eight games and that won't get it done against a Wizards team that can score points (103.4PPG - 10th best in NBA). |
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03-29-16 | BYU v. Valparaiso -1.5 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Valparaiso -1.5 over BYU, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET We like Valpo at this low number. We have the Crusaders ranked as the better team with the much better defense. Their defense ranks 8th nationally in adjusted efficiency defense and 6th in the nation in eFG% defense. They allow just 62 PPG on 38% shooting. To get here, Valpo had to play a team that finished 2 games ahead of BYU in the WCC, St Marys, and beat them by 16 points. They held St Marys, who entered the game as the #1 shooting team in the nation, to just 44 points. The Crusaders are also the better rebounding team with a margin of +10 per game on the season. They are a top 10 defensive rebounding team so don’t expect BYU to get many 2nd chances. BYU loves to run & gun. They are one of the fastest paced teams in the nation. Valpo is not. Expect the Crusaders to slow this game down and make it a half court affair which is definitely not their offensive strength. The first 3 teams BYU played to get here (UAB, Va Tech, and Creighton) all were fine running with them which played right into their strength. Now they have to play a team that won’t do that which will be a problem in our opinion. Valpo was a great road team this year going 12-4 in true away games. Lastly, this is a much tougher trip for BYU. Going west to east can be very difficult. The furthest trip east that BYU took this year was to Boulder, Colorado. This is a 2,000 mile trip for the Cougs and just 700 for Valpo. Don’t discount that. Valparaiso was the best team in the Horizon by a mile all season long. Once the NIT began, they were out to make a statement that they should have been in the NCAA. They’ve won their first 3 games in the NIT by double digits. They are one of the most experienced teams in the nation (3 seniors & 2 juniors in the starting line up) and we’ll call for a win here as Valpo gets to the NIT Finals. |
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03-27-16 | Notre Dame +9.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 74-88 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Notre Dame +9.5 over North Carolina, Sunday at 8:45 PM ET The value here is absolutely on the Irish. These two played just a few weeks ago in the ACC tourney and UNC was favored by 7 on a neutral court (Washington DC). Now because of that result – Heels won 78-47 – and UNC performance vs Indiana on Friday night – Heels won 101-86 – this line is nearly 3 points higher than it was then. A few things…The result in the ACC tourney gives Notre Dame extra motivation here. The players talked about a that embarrassment and how they wouldn’t get another shot at North Carolina until next season. “What else can you ask for?” said Irish junior guard Steve Vasturia. “Nobody as a competitor or a player wants to get smoked out of the gym like that.” A normally very good shooting team, Notre Dame shot just 30% in that game and just 26% from beyond the arc. We expect them to shoot much better here. They were also killed on the boards and while UNC is a great rebounding team, you can bet ND will put their full focus on the glass. These two met one other time this season, Notre Dame won by 4 and they were only -1 on the boards in that game so they have proven they can get it done. UNC is an average shooting team. They are one of the worst shooting teams from beyond the arc (284th nationally). However, everyone watch the Heels hit 52% of their shots vs the Hoosiers on Friday and 55% from 3-point land. We don’t see them doing that again here. First of all, IU tried to run with the Heels which turned out to be a mistake. Because of that, UNC got a number of easy baskets and wide open 3’s. Notre Dame will make this a half court game which is not how the Heels want to play. The Irish know they can’t win in a run & gun type game. These two teams know each other very well and Irish head man Mike Brey has proven he knows how to beat UNC as ND has won 3 of the last 4 meetings. We expect a close game. Take the point |
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03-27-16 | Syracuse +7.5 v. Virginia | Top | 68-62 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Syracuse +7.5 over Virginia, Sunday at 6:05 PM ET This should be a lower scoring game (124 is the total) making it much tougher to cover a higher number like this. Both dogs covered (won outright) yesterday and that now means the Elite 8 underdogs are on a 42-28 ATS run. These 2 met once this season with UVA winning by just 8 at home despite hitting 57% of their shots while the Orange hit just 39%. That line was set at Cavs -9.5 meaning this one should be more like UVA -5.5 or -6. Virginia won by 12 vs Iowa State last round which wasn’t a surprise (we were on Virginia). The Cavs frustrated a run & gun ISU team into a halfcourt game. Syracuse is a halfcourt team. They play slow just like Virginia. They will be in their comfort zone here also these two teams know each other very well making a large spread more difficult to attain. The Orange are playing their best basketball of the year and were in striking distance in most of their loss – only 4 losses by more than 12 points. We think this low scoring and goes to the wires making the points too good to pass up. |
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03-26-16 | Villanova v. Kansas UNDER 145 | Top | 64-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
PLAY ON 10* Under 145 Points - Kansas vs Villanova, Saturday at 8:45 PM ET Everyone, or should we say most, will be jumping on the OVER in this game. They’ve seen Villanova top 80 points in every game of the tourney including putting up 92 vs Miami on Thursday. We don’t see any way the Cats keep shooting the way they have been. After hitting nearly 60% the first weekend of the tourney, Nova made 63% of their shots vs Miami, a ridiculous 67% from 3 AND 94% from the charity stripe. We have to believe those numbers come back to the mean here facing a Kansas defense that ranks as the 5th most efficient in the nation. The Jayhawks have held 11 of their last 16 opponents to UNDER 40% shooting and we just don’t see Nova continuing on their torrid pace vs this defense. On the flip side, the Wildcat defense hasn’t been getting much pub which is understandable based on their offensive output. This team is very good on the defensive end of the court. They are 11th nationally in defensive efficiency and have held 6 straight opponents and 14 of their last 17 to under 70 points. The only top 10 defense (efficiency) that Nova faced in the Big East this year was Seton Hall. The Pirates held the Cats to 67 & 71 points. Both games would have landed UNDER this number. The only top 10 defense (efficiency) in the Big 12 was West Virginia. Kansas was held to 63 & 75 points in those games and both landed UNDER this number. The defenses come to play here and we like the UNDER. |
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03-26-16 | Hawks v. Pistons OVER 206 | Top | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
OVER 206 Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons, 6:35PM CT We like OVER in the Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons game. Our analytics project a total of 210 plus on this game and we couldn't agree more. Atlanta is the faster paced team of the two ranking in the top 10 in that statistical category but both are playing extremely efficient offensively right now. In their last five games both of these franchise rank in the top 9 in offensive efficiency numbers with Detroit averaging 1.17 points per possession and Atlanta averaging 1.133PPP. On the season both Atlanta and Detroit rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency rankings but in their last five games both are allowing more points per possession with each in the bottom half of the league in that category. Both teams are playing the second night of a back to back and both tend to play higher scoring games when un-rested. Combined these two teams are 20-14 'over' when playing without rest this season. The Pistons have scored 112 or more points in 5 of their last six games and have allowed 102 or more in 8 of their last ten. The Hawks have ripped off 7 straight games of 101 or more points and have averaged over 110PPG in that stretch. In the most recent meeting between these two teams which was earlier this month they combined for over 52 total points in all four quarters. The 'over' has cashed 4 straight in this series and the last 4 meetings in Mo'Town. The bet here is OVER! |
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03-24-16 | Maryland v. Kansas -6.5 | Top | 63-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas -6.5 over Maryland, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET Kansas gets an extra day to rest and prepare here as they finished off UConn last Saturday while the Terps (who had a long trip to Spokane, WA) had to play on Sunday. Coaching edge also the KU with Bill Self and his 39-16 record in the NCAA tourney (5th highest winning % all time) compared to Turgeon who’s a pedestrian 8-6 lifetime in the Dance. The Terps struggled down the stretch winning just 3 of their final 8 games heading into the Big Dance. While they obviously did get two wins last week, they weren’t overly impressive in our eyes. They struggled to beat South Dakota State (couldn’t hold a big lead) and then while they beat Hawaii by 12, it was a close game until the final stretch run when the Terps closed out the game on a 30-19 run. Maryland’s tough closing run on the season was directly related to the struggles of their point guard Melo Trimble. He’s played so many minutes he’s hit a wall. In his last 12 games, Trimble is shooting just 32% and just 26% from beyond the arc. This team has no chance of beating KU unless Trimble shoots much better than that. Will he? We doubt it as Kansas is 5th nationally in defensive efficiency and guard Devonte Graham is one of the better defenders in the country. The Jayhawks have been at the top of their game since late January winning 16 straight including wins over NCAA teams Kentucky, Iowa State, West Virginia (twice), Baylor (twice), Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas all in the final month and a half before the Dance. They destroyed both Austin Peay (by 26) & UConn (by 13 – but led by 24) in the first two games. This team is playing too well right now for Maryland to hang. |
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03-24-16 | Miami (Fla) +4 v. Villanova | Top | 69-92 | Loss | -102 | 50 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami FL +4 over Villanova, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET First off, we are siding with one of the top teams from a MUCH better conference. The Canes are one of the top teams from what seems to be the top conference in the nation this season. Miami finished tied for 2nd in the ACC with Virginia and that league has sent SIX teams to the Sweet 16. Nova is the lone team still standing from the weaker Big East. Many will be on the Cats here because of the way they performed in the opening rounds of the Big Dance. They rolled to easy wins over UNC Asheville & Iowa making them a bit over valued here in our opinion. Nova was able to use their full court & perimeter pressure to create turnovers and easy hoops in those two games. UNCA turned the ball over on 21% of their possessions and Iowa did so on 18%. Because of that, Nova was able to jump out to big leads early and coast. That won’t happen here. Miami is a veteran team with very good guards including PG Rodriguez. They won’t be frazzled by the Nova pressure. This Cane offense is very good. They rank 12th nationally in offensive efficiency. They just took it to the #1 defensive team in the nation (efficiency wise) last weekend lighting up Wichita State hitting 55% of their shots in the 8 point win. That red hot Shocker team came into their game vs the Canes after BIG wins over Vandy & Arizona. It was a Shocker defense that hadn’t allowed a single team all season to hit 50% of their shots until they faced Miami. Nova’s offense really relies heavily on the 3 point shot. That can be dangerous playing in a new venue for the first time (Yum Center in Louisville). It can also be dangerous when facing very good, tall, and athletic guards which Miami has (6’6 Davon Reed & 6’5 Sheldon McClellan). Those type teams have given Villanova some problems this year (Xavier & Seton Hall). Often overlooked, Miami has also had an extra day to get ready having played last Saturday while Nova played on Sunday. The Wildcats put a TON of emphasis on winning their first two games and getting to the Sweet 16. They hadn’t done so since 2009 despite having been a #1 seed once and #2 seed twice. While we won’t call for a “letdown” so to speak, one of their goals this year was to get to the Sweet 16 and they did so. We have these two teams rated much closer to even so we’ll grab the points and MIAMI. |
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03-23-16 | Georgia Tech v. San Diego State -5 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -5 over Georgia Tech, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET This is one of the tougher travel spots you’ll see for a college basketball team. While San Diego State will be at home for their 3rd straight NIT game, Tech has been all over the place. On Monday (just 48 hours ago) they upset South Carolina on the road to get a chance to move on in the NIT. However, they didn’t know who they would play until the Washington/San Diego State game ended at 1:42 AM ET on Tuesday morning. At that point they had to quickly make plans to fly from South Carolina to California and did so all day on Tuesday. This team basically had 43 hours from the time they found out they were playing SDSU until game time tonight. They will have almost no preparation time. While the Aztec coaches were up late Monday night into Tuesday watching film and putting together a game plan AND practicing, Tech was en route to California. We give the Aztecs a huge advantage there. On top of that, this is a tough match up for the Jackets. Georgia Tech doesn’t take many 3’s. They get the majority of their points from inside the arc (20th in the nation in that category). They are running into a defense that is #1 nationally defending inside the arc as SDSU allows only 41% on opponents 2 point attempts. The host is fantastic defensively in every category ranking #1 nationally in opponents 2 point %, #2 in opponents 3 point %, and #3 in overall defensive efficiency. Tech relies on heavily on rebounding as well and they are facing an Aztec team that is solid on the boards and the 5th “tallest” team in the country. Not to mention we expect the Tech players to have “weary” legs which will affect them in all aspects of the game including the boards. This is a sellout so we expect the crowd to be a factor as the winner moves on to NY City for the NIT Final 4. SDSU has a fantastic home court advantage going 46-6 here the last 3 years. We’ll lay it with San Diego State. |
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03-23-16 | Hawks v. Wizards UNDER 209 | Top | 122-101 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
Play UNDER in the Atlanta Hawks versus Washington Wizards game tonight. This is a quick rematch from Monday night when the Wizards beat the Hawks in Atlanta 117-102. Tonight we expect the defenses to step up in a game that has playoff implications for both clubs. Prior to Monday's game the Hawks had held five straight foes to an average shooting percentage of just 40%. The Wizards though shot 50% overall from the field and 52% from beyond the arc which are both higher than season averages so expect them to return to the 'norm' tonight. Atlanta has the second best overall shooting percentage defense in the NBA and have the second best defensive efficiency rating in the league just behind the Spurs in both categories. Washington is 'average' in terms of DEFF (defensive efficiency) and slightly below average in points allowed per game. Both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in offensive efficiency ratings even though both clubs shoot it relatively well. Money indicators and line movement clearly tell us the play on tonight's game is 'under'. Hawks under in four straight when coming off a loss and Wizards 'under' in 5 of their last six off a win. The two meetings this season have gone 'over' BUT 8 of the last ten meetings have resulted in less than tonight's total. Value with the UNDER! |
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03-22-16 | St. Mary's v. Valparaiso OVER 133 | Top | 44-60 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 133 Points - St Marys @ Valparaiso, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET While STM is a slow paced team, they are also the best shooting team in the nation. The Gaels rank #1 nationally in eFG% and #15 nationally in offensive efficiency. They rank in the top 6 in the nation in BOTH 3 point FG% and 2 point FG%. Despite playing at a slow tempo, they still averaged 75 PPG on the season. While Valpo isn’t as good offensively, they are no slouch. They average 78 PPG at home. The Crusaders have a very highly rated defensive team, but their games have been fairly high scoring down the stretch. The last time they had a total land under this current number of 133 was back on February 16th, more than a full month ago. The Valpo defense had a stretch from mid-January to mid-February where they held 5 teams under 60 points which really helped their overall defensive numbers. However a closer look reveals those opponents were some of the worst offensive teams in the nation. During that stretch they played Illinois Chicago twice (ranked 345th nationally in offensive efficiency), Cleveland State twice (ranked 343rd in offensive efficiency) and Northern Kentucky (ranked 232nd nationally in offensive efficiency). Since that run, the Crusaders have played 7 games with points totals of 170, 164, 156, 138, 191, 157, and 150 points. The final 2 on that list were their NIT match ups vs Texas Southern and Florida State. Both of those teams shot just 20% from 3 point range yet still put up 74 & 69 points. Offensively the Crusaders have scored 80 or more in 5 of their last 6 and they are facing a St Mary’s team that is decent but not great defensively. Both teams can put the ball in the hoop and this total is too low. We like the OVER. |
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03-21-16 | Wizards v. Hawks -6.5 | Top | 117-102 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
Tonight we will play on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over the visiting Washington Wizards. We have been waiting for a spot to play on the Hawks and this game is the perfect situation. Atlanta is running HOT right now having won 5 straight games and 8 of their last ten overall. In that stretch of games they've beaten playoff bound: Memphis, Indiana, Houston and the Clippers. On the flip side the Wizards have won 4 straight games but take a look at who they came against. Philly, 9 wins and one of, if not the worst team in the NBA. The Knicks who are tanking right now for a better lottery position. Detroit who is out of the playoff picture right now and Chicago who is 8th in the East. What we're saying is this...we're not impressed! The Hawks have a point differential of +15PPG their last five games and have held foes to just 40.5% shooting and 93.4 points per game in that stretch. On the season, Atlanta has one of the leagues better home point differentials of +6.2PPG (6th) while Washington has one of the worst road differentials (23rd) at minus -4.7PPG. Washington on the road is just 7-13 ATS when playing an above .500 team this year and 0-4 ATS their last four versus home teams like Atlanta that have a winning percentage greater than .600. The Hawks have covered 8 of the last 12 meetings and should get a double digit win here. |
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03-20-16 | Iowa v. Villanova -6.5 | Top | 68-87 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Villanova -6.5 over Iowa, Sunday at 12:10 PM ET The Hawks looked like one of the top teams in the country in January. Problem is, that’s when they hit their stride which was too early. They’ve been heading downhill ever since. The Hawks have won just 3 of their last 9 games and two of those were down to the wire affairs that could have been losses. One was on Friday when Iowa beat Temple in OT where the Hawks won on a buzzer beater in OT 72-70. All of Iowa’s starters played at least 32 minutes with their two main scoring threat Uthoff and Jok playing 43 and 39 minutes. That makes this a tough 48 hour turnaround for Iowa. Nova on the other hand should be very well rested as they had a stress free round one game beating UNC Asheville by 30. They had 8 players play at least 16 minutes with only 1 topping 30 minutes (31). The Cats haven’t been past NCAA round two since 2009 and they’ve had to hear about it A LOT. Since 2009 they’ve been a #1 seed once and a #2 seed twice yet still didn’t make the Sweet 16. That was one of their goals this year and this team is on a mission to get there this season. Villanova’s big man Ochefu summed up his team’s thoughts heading into this one. “Everybody’s been talking about this game for the whole year, even in the summertime before the season started,” Ochefu said. The Cats are better offensively (10th nationally in offensive efficiency to 24th for Iowa), better defensively (7th nationally in defensive efficiency to 37th for Iowa), and better at the line (77% to 72%). Iowa has been trending downward and almost had their season come to an end on Friday vs a Temple team that Villanova beat 83-67 in February. Iowa’s slow demise comes to an end here and we like Villanova to roll up a double digit win. |
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03-19-16 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +10 | Top | 102-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
We will side with Memphis at home plus the points over the LA Clippers. It's hard to believe only a few games separate these two in the standings yet the Clippers are double digit chalks on the road. That is mainly due to the Grizz have several key injuries to starters Gasol and Conley but Zach Randolph is expected back tonight. Memphis though should get some production from a few Clipper castoffs who are the types of players that hold grudges. Lance Stephenson has averaged over 23PPG, 8RPG and nearly 6 assists per game his last four games while another former Clipper, Matt Barnes has averaged 16PPG and over 8 boards per game his last five. Memphis has not been a double digit home dog this year and the largest number they've faced this year at home was 7-points against the Golden State Warriors. Now they're catching 10+ against L.A.? The Clippers have not done well when laying a lot of points this year as they are just 4-10 ATS laying 9+ points while Memphis is 3-2 ATS when catching more than 10 points this season. The Grizzlies have also been a solid bet all season rebounding at home off a SU loss (as they are here) with a 12-4 SU record at home. Memphis has cashed in on 11 of the last thirteen meetings with the Clippers and we expect that trend to continue. Grab the points. |
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03-19-16 | Butler v. Virginia -8 | Top | 69-77 | Push | 0 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Virginia -8 over Butler, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET We are not Butler believers. While they did enough to get into the Dance, they did not play well against the top teams in the Big East. The top 3 teams in the Big East were Villanova, Xavier, and Providence. The Bulldogs were 0-6 vs those teams with 4 of the 6 losses coming by at least 8 points. Their win in round one over Texas Tech was much closer than the final score indicated. The Bulldogs pulled away very late in that game to win by 10. They shot 49% overall in that game including 53% from beyond the arc. We highly doubt they’ll do that vs Virginia’s defense. Butler’s defense is pretty average so this team needs to shoot very well to win here. They don’t have much size inside so they rely heavily on the 3 which can be dangerous. The Cavs get huge credit for their staunch defense but let’s not forget this team has the 8th most efficient defense in college hoops. They should eat up this average Butler defense. We think UVA pulls away late and gets the cover. |
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03-19-16 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Iowa State -5.5 | Top | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -5.5 over Arkansas Little Rock, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET The line value is definitely with Iowa State here. UALR was just a 9.5 point underdog vs Purdue in game 1 yet they are only +6 here vs a team that rates almost dead even with the Boilers. We like looking to fade teams in round 2 that pull big upsets in round 1. Not only did the Trojans pull the upset, but they came from way down (they were down 14 with 4:00 minutes left) AND the game went into double OT. That makes this a very tough 48 hour turnaround facing one of the top offenses in the country. ISU has 6 players averaging double figures, they shoot over 50% as a team and their eFG of 56% is 4th best nationally. While UALR was grinding out a win a game one, ISU rolled to a non-stressful 13 point win over Iona. This one sets up nicely for ISU and the line is more than manageable here. Lay it. |
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03-18-16 | Stephen F Austin v. West Virginia OVER 144 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 144 Points - SF Austin vs West Virginia, Friday at 7:10 PM ET These two teams are #1 and #2 in the NATION at creating turnovers. Both teams press most or all of the game which should create a fast paced game. It should also lead to a number of easy baskets off turnovers as neither team protects the ball offensively all that well. SF Ausin shoots the ball very well as their 55.5% eFG rate is 12th nationally. They are also adept at shooting from deep (37.5%) and when they get to the line they knock them down at a rate of almost 75%. WVU’s shooting numbers aren’t nearly as impressive but they faced a much tougher schedule to truth be told, the Neer’s are probably better than their offensive numbers while Austin is a bit worse. WVU will control the offensive boards here (#1 nationally) so they will have a bunch of 2nd chance opportunities with many of those potentially being easy put backs. There should also be a TON of FT’s shot in this game as both teams foul a lot. These two combined to send the opponents to the line nearly 50 times a game! Both defenses are solid however, the SF Austin defense is a bit skewed in our opinion. The Lumberjacks played one of the easiest schedules in the nation (312 out of 351) and a number of poor offensive teams. When they played solid teams outside of conference (not many) their defense was shredded allowing 97 points to Baylor, 80 to an average Arizona State team, 76 to UAB, and even a very slow paced Northern Iowa team put up 70. West Virginia will put up big offensive numbers here and we like this one OVER. |
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03-18-16 | CS Bakersfield v. Oklahoma -14 | Top | 68-82 | Push | 0 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma -14 over CS Bakersfield, Friday at 4:00 PM ET The Sooners were thought to be the best team in the country for much of the year. In fact, even Kansas coach Bill Self mentioned in early February that he thought Oklahoma was better than every other team in the Big 12 including his Jayhawks. They faded a bit down the stretch as they are a thin team and looked out of gas. Expect them to be rejuvenated and back to form here after having a full week off. When healthy and rested, the Sooners are really a #1 seed in our opinion. CS Baskersfield just hasn’t played the schedule to get them ready for this tourney. Their SOS ranks 326th out of 351 (Oklahoma SOS ranks 3rd) and they have played only 2 teams all year ranked inside to top 100 (lost both to Fresno by 8 & Arizona St 16). CSB is solid defensively (26th nationally in defensive efficiency) however Oklahoma has a nice edge there ranking 10th nationally. However, the Sooners have a HUGE edge on offense. This team is one of the best shooting teams in the nation and rank 2nd nationally from beyond the arc. CSB is not a good shooting team neither from the field or at the line (65%). They are also one of the smallest teams in the nation with one starter taller than 6’4. This is basically a home game for Okie (in Oklahoma City) and we think they come into this game with a chip on their shoulder and this game turns into a blowout. |
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03-17-16 | Gonzaga v. Seton Hall +1.5 | Top | 68-52 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seton Hall +1.5 over Gonzaga, Thursday at 9:55 PM ET The Pirates continue to fly under the radar. This team is red hot entering the tourney and just might have been the best team in the Big East at the end of the season. If their tourney run is any indication, they were. Seton Hall topped Creighton to open the Big East tourney and then really ramped it up beating both Xavier & Villanova (both current #2 seeds in the Big Dance) to win the title. The Hall plays great defense (15th most efficient defense in the country) and they have really good guards. Those are the makings of a dangerous team. Pirate guard Isaiah Whitehead will be the best player on the court and it a future 1st round NBA pick. That’s a huge advantage in this game as Gonzaga is fairly weak in the backcourt. The Zags were a bubble team that had to win the WCC tourney to get in and they did. They played only 3 tourney teams all season going just 1-2 with losses to both Texas A&M & Arizona while beating UConn by 3. Seton Hall played 11 games vs tourney teams and went 6-5 in those games with impressive wins over Wichita State, Xavier, Villanova, and Providence. This team is peaking right now winning 12 of their last 14. Our only fear is how will they react coming off the Big East Championship win and beating two marquee programs to get there? The Pirates might struggle early but with the line where it is and them having to simply win the game, we think they’ll play well down the stretch and get the “W” against a “down” Gonzaga team – not as good as past editions. |
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03-17-16 | Providence -1.5 v. USC | Top | 70-69 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Providence -1.5 over USC, Thursday at 9:50 PM ET The Friars are a dangerous team in this tourney. They have 2 NBA first rounders in point guard Kris Dunn and forward Ben Bentil. Dunn will be one of the best PG’s in this tourney and we like having him on our side (with the ball in his hands) if this is a tight game late. They have proven they can get it done away from home with a 10-6 record this season in away/neutral games. Providence has beaten some very good (NCAA tourney) teams this year including Villanova, Arizona, and Butler (3 times). 7 of their 10 losses came at the hands of NCAA tourney teams so very few bad losses for this team. They are used to the NCAA tourney setting as this will be their 3rd straight year in the Big Dance. The Friars have been motivated to get back here all season long after last year’s first round exit vs Dayton. USC loves an up & down the court type game. They struggle in a half court setting which is what Providence will do here. The Trojans hit a wall in early February and they have lost 7 of their last 10 games. They also picked up the vast majority of their wins at home as they went just 4-10 in road/neutral games. The Trojans have won a grand total of ONE game away from home since January 13th and that was a neutral site win over UCLA. USC doesn’t have a single player who has played in an NCAA tourney game and they are young starting a freshman and 2 sophomores. Providence is the side in this one. |
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03-17-16 | Hornets v. Heat -4 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -104 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
Tonight we side with the Miami Heat minus the points over the Charlotte Hornets. Both teams have plenty to play for as they jockey for position in the East but scheduling and a few other pertinent dynamics favor Miami here. Charlotte is playing their 2nd of a back to back having played Orlando last night and this will be their 3rd game in four nights. Miami on the other hand has been off since Monday and this will be just their 3rd game since last Saturday. Miami has an edge at home where they are 22-12 SU with an average point differential of +3.9PPG. The Heat have won 6 of their last seven at home with the lone loss coming against the Golden State Warriors and all six of those wins have come by more than tonight's spread. Charlotte is a respectable 12-19 SU away from home with a negative or minus -2.5PPG differential and they've played 7 straight home games. This will be the 4th meeting of the season between these two team with Miami holding a 2-1 advantage with a double digit home win early in the year. In their last five games on the road against winning teams the Hornets are 2-3 SU and both wins were over a Pacers team that was struggling at the time. Miami is 8-4 ATS versus division opponents while Charlotte is just 5-7 ATS. In their last game the Heat had six players score 17 or more points and another with 11 which is incredible balance whereas the Hornets rely mainly on Kemba Walker for most of their scoring. We like Miami here by 10+. Lay it. |
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03-17-16 | NC-Wilmington v. Duke -10.5 | Top | 85-93 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Duke -10.5 over UNC Wilmington, Thursday at 12:15 PM ET Many are thinking this game might be an “upset special” but we’re not buying it. While UNCW won both the CAA’s regular season and post-season title, their resume it really quite weak. How weak? How about the fact they have not played one NCAA tourney team this entire season. Not one. The Seahawks played only one team all season long ranked higher than 80 in the Ken Pom ratings. That was Georgetown way back on Dec 12th which was a loss for Wilmington. This is a Seahawk team that doesn’t have a single player that’s ever played in an NCAA tourney game and a coach, Kevin Keatts, that’s only been a head coach for 2 years and has never been the head man in the tourney. Facing one of the best coaches (Coach K has 88 tourney wins!) & programs in the country with LOTS of NCAA experience will be a tall task. The problem with Duke is their lack of depth. As the tourney rolls on we may look to play against them in their 2nd game in 3 days situation. That isn’t the case here. The Devils have been off since last Thursday and they are rested and ready to go. Coach K kept most of the practices leading into this game “non-physical” to make sure his team was ready. He stated earlier this week that is team is now as healthy as they’ve been in a long time. The Devils should score enough to pull away in this one as they are the 6th most efficient offense in the nation. On top of that, UNCW puts teams at the line a lot which will give Duke a chance to extend the margin. We’re going to lay in the points here with the Blue Devils. |
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03-16-16 | UAB +9.5 v. BYU | Top | 79-97 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UAB +9.5 over BYU, Wednesday at 10 PM ET UAB was the top team in Conference USA all season long. They won the regular season title by a full 3 games! They were upset last Thursday in the CUSA tourney by Western Kentucky so the Blazers have had some time to regroup and get ready for the NIT. They weren’t a “bubble” team so once they lost, they knew it would be the NIT. This is a team that was in the NCAA tourney team that beat Iowa State in the opening round. They are 26-6 this year and returned nearly all key players from last year’s Big Dance team. This isn’t a team that goes to the NCAA year in and year out so we look for them to be excited to play in the NIT, especially vs a “name” foe. They have proven their road prowess as well with a 10-3 record in true road games. We expect BYU to play a bit of a ho-hum type game here. They fell well short of their expectations this year and this team has been in the Big Dance 8 of the last 9 seasons. The NIT is not a thrilling award for this BYU team. The Cougs have been a terrible play in the post-season covering just 4 of their last 17. UAB is the better offensive team and the defenses are fairly close. The Blazers are also a fantastic underdog covering 22 of their last 30. We like UAB to have a good shot to win this game and we’re getting nearly double digits. |
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03-16-16 | Tulsa +5 v. Michigan | Top | 62-67 | Push | 0 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tulsa +5 over Michigan, Wednesday at 9:10 PM ET Tulsa is this year’s team that shouldn’t be in the tourney according to the talking heads and the TV “experts”. The Hurricane players will hear about this all week long and they’ll come into this game with a huge chip on their shoulder. This team is no slouch. They are 20-11 on the season and very experienced with 4 senior starters & 1 junior starter. They proved they can win on the road as they were above .500 in true road tilts (6-5 record). Included in those were a win over SMU who absolutely would have been in this tourney had they been eligible and @ Oklahoma State back when the Cowboys were at full strength. The Canes also had a few tight road losses against tourney teams including a 2-point loss @ UConn and an OT loss @ Temple. Michigan relies as heavily on the 3 as almost any team in this tourney which can make it tough away from home. If they aren’t hitting from deep, they basically don’t win. The Wolves aren’t a great rebounding team and they get to the line as infrequently as almost anyone in the country. Tulsa is the better defensive team and they get the majority of their points from inside the arc which is more reliable in our opinion. We have this game power rated much closer to “even” and we like Tulsa.
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03-15-16 | IUPU Ft Wayne +11.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 55-79 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* IPFW +11.5 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 10 PM ET The Aztecs are in a tough spot here. They were the best team in the MWC all season long but lost in the conference final late Saturday night. It was a back and forth game with Fresno but SDSU lost 68-63. Even after that, the Aztecs were expecting an at large bid to the Big Dance but it never came. This team is devastated. Take a look at the San Diego Union Tribune newspaper. The talk is about why the Aztecs missed the NCAA and what they could have done to make it. Almost nothing in making the NIT and playing IPFW. The tough part here is they have no time to get over this and come to the realization they are playing IPFW. Just 72 hours after losing to Fresno and just 48 hours after finding out they won’t be included in the Dance, they must focus and play a solid team that finished tied for 1st place in the Summit League. IPFW is thrilled to be in this game. Any post-season appearance is huge for this program. They wanted to play a “name” program in the NIT and they got just that. The Mastadons are a very dangerous team because they shoot the ball so well. They are the 9th best 3-point shooting team in the nation and they have the 21st best eFG% in the country. San Diego State is obviously very good but their offense is below average (291st nationally in eFG%) which makes it tough for them to win games big. Since December 30th, this Aztec team has only won 6 games by more than 12 points. Many of their games were undecided late and they found ways to win. We expect that to happen again here, but with the number sitting above 10, IPFW gets the cover. |
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03-15-16 | Vanderbilt v. Wichita State UNDER 134.5 | Top | 50-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 134.5 Points - Wichita State vs Vanderbilt, Tuesday at 9:10 PM ET Two defenses that are well ahead of the offenses here. WSU actually ranks as the most efficient defense in all of college basketball. Both allow opponents to shoot just 38% from the field. Vandy ranks 3rd nationally in eFG% defense while the Shockers rank 8th in the country in the same category. Neither team is great offensively with the Commodores shooting 46% on the year and WSU only 43%. Both teams protect the ball pretty well and neither is a great offensive rebounding team which means not a lot of 2nd or 3rd looks per possession or easy baskets off steals. Both teams are slower paced and with this being the first tourney game, expect the offenses to be a little tight early. This number is set too high and we like the UNDER. |
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03-15-16 | Florida v. North Florida +8 | Top | 97-68 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* North Florida +8 over Florida, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET This is easily the biggest home game in the history of North Florida basketball. The Ospreys are expecting an “overflow” sellout crowd tonight. They are thrilled to be here and their coach, Matthew Driscoll, threw an NIT selection party for this team on Sunday night. The Gators, on the other hand, are not thrilled with how this season played out. This is a team that has made the NCAA tourney in 5 of their last 6 seasons (entering this year) and that was their goal. They came up short and we’re guessing they are not all that excited about having to travel to Jacksonville to play North Florida tonight. Players follow their head coach’s leadership and it’s quite obvious Gator head man Mike White is not thrilled to be here. His “considering the circumstances it’s a chance for our younger players to get better,” statement was not a ringing endorsement for the Gators NIT excitement. UNF is a dangerous team because they are very motivated and they are experienced (2 seniors & 2 juniors in the starting line up). Four of their seven “regulars” are from the state of Florida making this game very meaningful. The Ospreys are one of the highest scoring teams in the nation (84 PPG) and one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the nation (7th nationally at 41%). The Gators do not defend the arc very well (163rd nationally & 12th in the SEC) and they struggle offensively. This is a tough spot for Florida playing in a smaller arena they are not used to in a game they really don’t want to be in. We think this game goes to the wire and we grab the points. |
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03-14-16 | South Carolina State v. Grand Canyon -13 | Top | 74-78 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Grand Canyon -13 over South Carolina State, Monday at 10::30 PM ET Grand Canyon finished tied for 2nd place in the WAC this year with Cal State Bakersfield (in the Big Dance) just behind New Mexico State. GC was not allowed to take part in the WAC tourney as it was their first year in the league and they are transitioning to Division 1. This team is VERY excited to be included in the CIT and happy to host a game. SC State has to travel west which most likely will conclude a brutal stretch. While GC has been off since March 5th, SC State will now be playing their 4th game in 5 days. They made it to the Championship of the MEAC on Saturday night – played in Virginia – where they lost to Hampton 81-69. The Bulldogs played Thursday & Friday as well making it 3 games in 3 days. Now on 1 day rest after a disappointing loss with a chance to go to the Dance, they must make the long flight to Phoenix to play tonight. They play a Grand Canyon team that played host to the MEAC champion this year (Hampton) and beat them by 12. In fact, Antelopes played 3 teams from the MEAC this season and won those games by 12 (vs the MEAC Champion – Hampton), 29, and 21 points. SC State is a very poor defensive team (321st in defensive efficiency) and they are poor on the boards. GC is solid in both areas and rested. Throw in the fact this is a late 10:30 PM ET start and this one looks like it could be a blowout and we’re on it. Lay it with Grand Canyon on Monday night. |
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03-13-16 | Kentucky -3.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 82-77 | Win | 102 | 1 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kentucky -3.5 over Texas A&M, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This is the match up Kentucky was hoping for. They absolutely wanted another shot at A&M. These two met once this season in late February @ A&M and the Aggies won by 2 in OT. It was a controversial ending when Kentucky’s Isaac Humphries was called for a technical foul in the final 10 seconds allowing the Aggies to pick up a win. Jamaal Murray summed up the Cats thoughts heading into this game. “We’re looking forward to it. A lot of guys want this game.” One of Kentucky’s top players, Alex Poythress, didn’t play in that game but he is back from an injury and on the court again. Derek Willis played in that loss, however he missed a few games following due to an injury and he is now back. Kentucky is healthy and playing their best basketball of the year winning easily in their first two games vs solid and desperate teams (Alabama & Georgia). In their only meeting @ A&M, the Cats actually outshot (better %) the Aggies from both inside and outside the arc. The problem was A&M was able to attempt 18 more shots helped in part by their 18 offensive boards (to just 5 for Kentucky). That was an aberration as the Cats are the better rebounding team (11th nationally in offensive rebound %) and will be helped immensely on the boards with Poythress back in the line up. If UK can shore that up and even keep the boards even (we think they’ll have an advantage) they should win this game comfortably. Kentucky has NBA talent all over the floor and when motivated & healthy, they are very, very good. They are both today and we’ll lay the small number. |
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03-12-16 | Michigan v. Purdue -7 | Top | 59-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Purdue -7 over Michigan, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET This one sets up very nicely for the Boilers. They played their first game of this tourney yesterday and it was an absolute blowout as they whipped Illinois 89-58. What that means is none of the Boilermakers were “taxed” physically or mentally. They should be really fresh here. In fact no player played more than 24 minutes and they had 10 players log at least 11 minutes. Compare that to Michigan who played back to back emotionally draining games beating NW in OT on Thursday followed up by upsetting Indiana by 3 on Friday. The Wolverines came from 5 down in the final 1:00 yesterday to get the win. Michigan’s key players have logged big minutes over the last two days (Irvin 77 minutes, Walton 77 minutes, Abdur-Rahkman 75 minutes, and Robinson 68 minutes) and now will be playing their third game in three days. It’s the same situation Illinois was in yesterday and Purdue, the best rebounding team in the Big Ten, destroyed them on the boards (+20). The same will be the case here as the poor rebounding Michigan team will now have dead legs. Also similar to the Illini situation, Purdue lost @ Michigan in February by 5 points to you can bet the Boilers will be extra motivated. While we don’t expect PU to shoot 58% as they did on Friday, we do expect them to be solid on offense facing a Michigan team that ranks 13th in the Big Ten in eFG% defense. Michigan might hang around for awhile but as they run out of gas in the 2nd half, Purdue pulls away. |
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03-11-16 | Colorado State v. Fresno State OVER 150.5 | Top | 56-64 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 150.5 points - Colorado St vs Fresno St, Friday at 11:30 PM ET Here we have the best offense in the MWC against possibly the hottest offense in the MWC. CSU is #1 in the league in offensive efficiency and they are averaging 80 PPG on the season. They haven’t slowed down at all late in the year hitting at least 80 points in 4 of their last 5 including last night’s win over Boise where they put up 88 on the league’s 3rd most efficient defense. Offense isn’t a problem for the Rams. That comes on the other end of the court where their defense is dead last in the MWC in efficiency. They are allowing 77 PPG on the season and have given up 80+ points in half of their conference games this season. That’s bad news vs a Fresno offense that is ROLLING right now. The Bulldogs put up 95 points last night and over their last four games they have put up 92, 87, 86, and 95 points. These two met just 9 days ago and put up 160 points. Another high scoring affair here. Take the OVER. |
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03-11-16 | Davidson v. St Bonaventure -1 | Top | 90-86 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* St Bonnies -1 over Davidson, Friday at 9:00 PM ET This is a huge game for St Bonnies. They are squarely on the bubble and one certain ESPN analysts with the initials J.L. has them as one of the last 4 in. They can’t afford a loss here. The Bonnies are rested and ready to go. They haven’t played since Saturday and this team is rolling winning 10 of their last 11. Davidson played last night beating the A10’s worst team LaSalle. Three of their five starters played 34+ minutes so fatigue could be an issue here. Davidson relies heavily on the 3 point shot but St Bonnies has the “D” to slow them down ranking 2nd in the conference in defending the arc. Offensively St Bonnies should have their way here as they are the most efficient offense in the A10 while the Davidson defense ranks 13th in that category. In their lone meeting this year STB put up nearly 100 points in a 97-85 win. With the number sitting where it is, we simply need an outright win. We’ll take St Bonaventure. |
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03-11-16 | Pistons +4 v. Hornets | Top | 103-118 | Loss | -113 | 2 h 56 m | Show |
#503 - Detroit Pistons +4 over Charlotte Hornets - 6PM CT Tonight we will side with the Detroit Pistons and the points over host Charlotte. At first glance these two teams are both running hot right now but looking closer we feel Charlotte's run is a little misleading based on who they've beaten. The Hornets are 8-2 SU their last 10 games but the two losses came to teams with winning records (Hawks and Cavs) and they only have two wins over a team with winning record (Indiana) in that stretch. Detroit on the other hand is 6-2 SU their last eight games with wins over Toronto, Portland and Dallas. Toronto and Portland are better than Charlotte in our power rankings while Dallas is a little worse. Detroit is better than the league average in road point differentials at -3PPG and have two won 3 of their last five away. This will be just the second meeting of the season for these two teams with Charlotte winning the first match up at home by 20. The Pistons get a measure of revenge here and pull the upset. |
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03-11-16 | Illinois v. Purdue -11 | Top | 58-89 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Purdue -11 over Illinois, Friday at 2:30 PM ET Purdue is rested and ready to go while the Illini are playing their 3rd game in 3 days. Yesterday’s down to the wire game with Iowa should leave Illinois with heavy legs today. Four of their five starters played 30+ minutes in that 2-point win. That’s bad news against a physical Purdue team that would have a huge advantage on the boards even if the Illini were fresh. The Boilers are the top rebounding team in the Big Ten and Illinois is one of the worst. Iowa was +10 on the boards yesterday and gathered a whopping 42% of their misses. The problem was the Hawks shot poorly and didn’t take care of the ball (18 turnovers). The Boilers will also be extra motivated here as they played their worst game of the Big Ten season in their only meeting with Illinois this year. The Illini won by 14 at home back in early January. In that game, a poor shooting Illini team (11th in the league in eFG%), hit 54% of their shots overall and 52% of their 3’s. They were also +14 made FT’s. The Boilers dominated the boards and took 12 more shots in the game. The tables turn here as a rested and motivated Purdue team takes out their frustrations on a tired Illini team. Lay it. |
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03-11-16 | Florida v. Texas A&M -4 | Top | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M -4 over Florida, Friday at 1:00 PM ET We faded Florida yesterday vs Arkansas and lost. A closer look at that game tells us that Arkansas shot terribly (36%) and though the Razors came in as the top 3-point shooting team in the SEC they made only 2 of 12 from deep (16%). Even with that poor offensive performance it was a one possession game with under 1:00 remaining. In other words, while the Gators won, they didn’t play well. That doesn’t stray from our analysis yesterday which said Florida was simply not playing well down the stretch. They came in winning just 3 of their final 9 games and yesterday’s win doesn’t change that. This team struggles offensively and now they face the #1 defensive efficient team in the SEC. We also expect this rested Aggie team who tied Kentucky for 1st place in the SEC, will be much better offensively today than Arkansas was yesterday. A&M ranks as the 2nd most efficient offense in the SEC and after hitting their lull in mid February, they have kicked it in gear to win 6 straight to end the regular season. In their only meeting this year A&M won by 3 points. However, looking at the stats, it’s surprising they won at all. They had a very poor game offensive making only 36% of their shots and just 30% of their 3’s. Florida shot 8% higher overall and from deep yet A&M still won by 3. The Aggies are rested and simply better on both sides of the ball. With the number sitting this low (currently -3.5 or -4) this is more than manageable for Texas A&M. |
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03-10-16 | Iowa State +4.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Iowa State +4.5 over Oklahoma, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET Oklahoma was the “hot team” no doubt over their first 21 games winning 19 of them. But the fact is, this team looked like they ran out of gas (very thin bench) and didn’t play very well down the stretch. Over their final 9 games of the season, the Sooners went just 5-4. Most of their wins over the last month were far from dominating. They closed out the season beating the worst team in the Big 12 (TCU) by 8 points. That was right after beating Baylor by just 2 points at home. They beat Texas at home by just 3. They topped Oklahoma State, the 2nd worst team in the league. Their only “solid” win since early February was @ West Virginia. ISU comes in off a loss by a fairly good one if there is such a thing. They lost their season finale @ #1 Kansas but played very well and led for much of the 2nd half. The Cyclone offense is very dangerous as they are #1 in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency and eFG%. Not only are they a very good 3-point shooting team but they do a lot of damage inside the arc as well where they hit 57% of their shots (5th nationally). Based on their results this season, we could make a strong argument that Iowa State is the better team. Oklahoma won by 4 at home while ISU won by 5 at home. The Cyclones shot 49% in the two meetings while Okie hit 42% of their shots. ISU was +12 on the boards. Oklahoma relies heavily on the 3-point shot and ISU is the #1 three point FG defense in the Big 12 (conference games). While this is technically a neutral site, we’re told Iowa State will bring a lot of fans – just a 3 hour drive. We like Iowa State to win this game. |
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03-10-16 | UNLV v. Fresno State -3 | Top | 82-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Fresno State -3 over UNLV, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET The Rebs should be completely out of gas for this one. They had to go to triple OT yesterday to knock off an Air Force team that came in with a 5-13 conference record. UNLV is one of the thinnest teams in the country with only 6 scholarship players available. They actually ended the game yesterday with only 3 scholarship players still available (3 fouled out). Three of their five starters played 54+ minutes and another played 41 minutes which is still more than a full game. While this was going on, Fresno was resting as they didn’t play yesterday. The Bulldogs come into this game playing their best basketball of the season winning 8 of their last 9 games. Their only loss during that stretch was in OT @ Nevada. They have proven they can get it done on the road with a 5-4 conference record away from home. They have also proven they can beat UNLV as they did so both times this year, including here at the Thomas & Mack Center when UNLV was still at full strength. This one sets up very poorly for UNLV and we’ll call for Fresno to pick up another win vs the Rebels. |
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03-10-16 | Hawks v. Raptors -4 | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
We will play on the Toronto Raptors at home minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks. The Toronto Raptors have quietly put together a very good season and have the second best overall record in the East, 2.5 games behind division leading Cleveland. Toronto is 24-7 SU at home this season but more importantly for our wager tonight they have an average point differential of +6.6 PPG which is the 5th highest average in the NBA. The Raptors also seem to focus more when winning teams come to town as they are 10-3 ATS at home against teams with winning records. Atlanta is playing really well right now having won 3 of their last four which have all been played on the road but we expect that tough travel schedule to catch up to them here. The Hawks just played in Utah (29-35 SU) on Tuesday and were 2-point underdogs to the Jazz. Now the Raptors who arguably are the best team in the East at 42-20 is laying a basket more than Utah. A big edge in this game will be rebounding for the Raptors who are one of the best in the league while Atlanta is one of the worst. Toronto has covered 5 of the last six meetings and get a double digit win here. |
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03-10-16 | Utah State v. San Diego State -7 | Top | 65-71 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -7 over Utah State, Thursday at 3:00 PM ET The Aztecs are easily the best team in the MWC however, they are most likely not in the Dance unless they win this tourney. Thus, we have the best team in the league with a lot to play for. SDSU looked like they were peaking late in the season as they destroyed their final 2 opponents beating New Mexico by 27 and UNLV by 36. Now the rested Aztecs face a Utah State team that played on Wednesday to get here. They Aggies looked very solid offensively in their 18 point win over Wyoming. However defensively they allowed the Cowboys to hit nearly 61% of their shots inside the arc. The problem for Wyoming was they couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn from deep. USU relies very heavily on their offense because their defense is not very good and hasn’t been all season. The problem here is they are facing the best defense in the MWC and one of the best in the nation. In their 2 meetings this year, both San Diego State wins, a normally reliable USU offense hit less than 40% of their shots including less than 30% of their 3 pointers. That’s a big problem for this team that struggles to stop teams defensively. Look for SDSU to also dominate the boards as they are the #1 offensive rebounding team in the MWC while Utah State is THE WORST defensive rebounding team in the conference. This motivated, physical San Diego State team is a bad match up for Utah State who could wear down in this one having played yesterday. |
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03-09-16 | Knicks v. Suns UNDER 206 | Top | 128-97 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
We will play UNDER in the NY Knicks vs. Phoenix Suns game. Based on how both teams are currently trending we expect a low scoring game here tonight. In terms of offensive efficiency (OEFF) both teams have been bad on the season with New York ranking 19th and Phoenix 29th and in their last five games the numbers haven't changed much as they've basically flipped spots. Overall defensively both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in DEFF but in their last five games they've allowed less points per possession and a lot of that is due to solid shooting defense. The Suns have held foes to just 42.1% shooting their last five games while New York has held teams to an average of 43.9%. On the season the Knicks are one of the slowest paced teams in the league while Phoenix has been one of the fastest. But recently the Suns are playing much slower and are close to the league average their last five games. The Knicks played last night in Denver and won't want this game turning into a transition game. In fact, the Knicks have stayed 'under' the total in five straight when coming off a game the night before. Phoenix hasn't won many games so when they have a chance to they seem to play lower scoring games. When facing a team with a losing record the Suns have stayed 'under' in five straight games. |
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03-09-16 | Minnesota v. Illinois UNDER 136.5 | Top | 52-85 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 136.5 points - Illinois vs Minnesota, Wednesday at 4:30 PM ET Minnesota’s has lost most of their key players on offense and we don’t see them scoring much here. Because of suspensions and injuries, 5 of their top 6 scorers are not playing in this game. Morris (10 PPG) was dismissed from the team in mid February. Mason (14 PPG), Dorsey (7 PPG) and McBrayer (6 PPG) were suspended with 3 games left in the regular season and will not play in the post-season. Now on top of that, the Gophs only senior, Joey King (12 PPG), injured his foot and missed the season finale @ Rutgers and is out of the year. Minny scored just 52 points in that game @ Rutgers vs the worst defense in the Big 10. The previous game they put up just 49 vs Wisconsin. Minnesota was the worst shooting team in the conference (14th in eFG%) this year and that was with their key players in place for most of the year. The Illini offense hasn’t set the world on fire either this year scoring less than 70 points in 13 of 18 Big Ten games. Illinois ranked 11th in the Big Ten in eFG%. These two met twice this year scoring 120 (in regulation) and 155. That 2nd game was an aberration as these two poor shooting teams combined to hit 50% of their shots overall, 43% of their 3-pointers, and 82% of their FT’s. That won’t happen here. Playing in an unfamiliar arena (Bankers Life Fieldhouse – Indianapolis) can always be tough on the offenses, especially bad ones. We like the UNDER in this one. |
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03-09-16 | NC State v. Duke OVER 150 | Top | 89-92 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 150 points - Duke vs NC State, Wednesday at 2:30 PM ET These two met twice this year and put up 162 and 168 points. The two combined to shoot 50% in those two games. Not a big surprise as both offenses are far ahead of their defenses. Duke ranks 2nd in the ACC in offensive efficiency and they will be playing into an NC State defense that ranks dead last in the conference in defensive efficiency. The Wolfpack rank 7th in the ACC in offensive efficiency and will be facing a Duke defense that ranks 11th in the league in defensive efficiency. NC State played yesterday and was able to get acclimated to the Verizon Center which should help them offensively here. The Duke offense should be fine either way facing a defense that can’t stop anybody. In their game yesterday NC State topped WF 75-72 totaling 147 points. That was despite a very poor shooting game from both teams with NSCU hitting 41% of their shots and Wake hitting only 37%. This one should be high scoring. |
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03-08-16 | Gonzaga v. St. Mary's OVER 132.5 | Top | 85-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 132.5 points - Gonzaga vs St Marys, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN These two met twice this year and totaled 137 & 121 points. The second meeting was simply a poor shooting night as the two combined to hit just 35% of their shots and only 29% from beyond the arc. That’s not the norm with these two offenses. They are the 2 best offenses in the WCC. They rank #1 & #2 in offensive efficiency and eFG%. St Mary’s is actually the BEST shooting team in the entire nation with an eFG% of 56.7%. The Zags aren’t far behind in that category ranking 17th nationally. Both teams are now acclimated to the venue (The Orleans Arena in Las Vegas) having played 2 games here thus far in the WCC tourney. St Marys has scored 141 points in their 2 games (70.5 PPG average) while Gonzaga has put up 180 points in their 2 games (90 PPG). We look for this to be another close game, just as the first two were, and it’s do or die for both teams. That leads to “scrambling” at the end of the game and fouling if necessary leading to extra FT’s. There will be no give up here as neither team is projected to be a lock for the Dance unless they win this game. The Zags have scored at least 70 points in 10 of their last 13 games while the Gaels have done the same in 5 of their last 7. |
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03-07-16 | Clippers -5 v. Mavs | Top | 109-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Tonight we play on the LA Clippers minus the points over the host Dallas Mavericks. At first glance you might be asking why we would lay points on the road against the Mavs here but we feel the situation warrants it. First of all, just 2 weeks ago the Mavs hosted a similar Thunder team and was also a 5-point dog which makes this a comparable point spread. In fact, earlier this year the Clippers were favored by -6.5 points on this floor. The Mavs are also in a tough scheduling situation here as they just played an overtime game in the higher altitude in Denver last night. The starters, including aging Dirk Nowitzki saw extended minutes in that game which makes fatigue an issue tonight versus a rested Clippers team. The Clippers are a solid 19-10 SU away from home this season and know what it takes to win on the road. LA is coming off a disappointing home loss to the Hawks and will rebound here. What's significant is how the Clippers respond off of a loss as they have covered 7 in a row in that situation. Dallas is a bit of a mirage as they have just ONE win in their last 20 games over a team with an above .500 record and that was Memphis in OT. The Clippers have won 6 of their last seven on the road. Lay the points! |
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03-07-16 | North Dakota State +2.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 69-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* North Dakota State +2.5 over IPFW, Monday at 7:00 PM CT NDSU matches up very well with the higher seeded IPFW here. These two played twice this year with NDSU winning at home near the end of the season by 16 and IPFW winning at home by 5 in a game NDSU led for much of the 2nd half. In their win by 16 over IPFW near the end of the year, North Dakota State actually played without one of their top players, Paul Miller, who is back now. The Bison have the top defense in the Summit League ranking #1 in defensive efficiency and opponent FG% and they gave the Mastodons big problems in their 2 meetings. In their two games combined vs NDSU, the Mastodons hit just 44 of their 123 shots (35.7%) and just 14 of their 48 three point attempts (29.1%). IPFW looked great offensively on Saturday vs South Dakota, however that was facing one of the worst defensive teams in the league, not the best. We suspect they’ll struggle again tonight. We also feel we’re getting some line value here as we have these two teams rated very close to even. An inspection of the lines on their games this year would seem to agree with us. IPFW was favored by just 1.5 at home while NDSU was favored by 3.5 at home near the end of the season. That tells us this game should probably be even or possibly with NDSU as a slight favorite. IPFW is the higher seed, thus the favoritism here. We like North Dakota State to win this game outright so we’ll take the points. |
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03-06-16 | SMU v. Cincinnati -2 | Top | 54-61 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -2 over SMU, Sunday at 12 Noon ET We’ve spoken many times this year about SMU’s motivation throughout the season. The Mustangs are not eligible for any post-season play which means this is their final game of the season. They just played a great game in their home finale crushing UConn on Thursday night. That was their big game. We see them struggling to get back to an emotional peak here coming off their senior night win and knowing this game is it, win or lose. We catch the Bearcats in a different mindset. Cincy played a very poor game @ Houston on Thursday, a 69-56 loss. Two key seniors, Cobb & Thomas, missed the game with injuries but hope to be back here. The loss moved Cincy squarely onto the NCAA Bubble. A win here over a very good SMU team would most likely vault them back into the field of 68. Cincinnati had SMU on the ropes in their first meeting in Dallas. The Bearcats lost that game by 2 points but led for much of the game including holding a 7 point lead with just 3 minutes remaining. Here we get a very good and desperate home team vs a team simply playing out the string. Cincinnati is the play. |
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03-05-16 | North Carolina -1 v. Duke | Top | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -1 over Duke, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET Revenge, Revenge, Revenge. The Heels have been waiting for this rematch after literally blowing their game at home vs Duke in mid February. UNC led for 95% of that game but Duke rallied from 8 down late in the 2nd half to pick up a 74-73 win. UNC led for the majority of that game and really probably should have won despite shooting just 1 of 13 from three point land (7%). A win here gives the Tar Heels at least a share of the ACC crown while Duke sits a full 2 games back in 5th place. We look for Carolina to POUND the Devils on the boards again in this one after corralling 44% of their misses (18 offensive rebounds) in the first meeting and out boarding Duke overall by 12. UNC is the #1 offensive rebounding team in the ACC (5th nationally) while Duke is a terrible defensive rebounding team ranking 308th nationally. That will give Carolina extra chances on offense and they should be able to take advantage of that here as they are shooting much better as of late (47% or higher in 5 of their last 7 games). Duke is one of the thinnest teams in the nation with their bench minutes ranking 347th out of 351. They basically play a 6 man rotation which has them a bit worn out at the end of the season. Not a good recipe for taking on a big, physical, and deep North Carolina team. The Devils “invincibility” at home has been damaged this season as they have 2 ACC losses at Cameron Indoor. This is a team that used to destroy their opponents yet they have a grand total of ONE win by greater than 10 points since January 9th. With the line sitting where it is, we basically have to pick the winner and we think that’s going to be North Carolina. |
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03-05-16 | Kansas State v. Texas Tech -5 | Top | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -5 over Kansas State, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET This game sets up perfectly in our opinion. Tech is off back to back road losses vs two of the top three teams in the Big 12 (Kansas & WVU). They are back home for the regular season finale and this is a huge game for the Red Raiders. They sit at 18-11 overall and 8-9 in the Big 12. This team is very close to sitting on the NCAA bubble and they need this win to get to .500 in the conference. A loss here would really hurt their NCAA at large chances and push them to the bubble. We expect them to play a very good game in this setting on Saturday. KSU, on the other hand, is nowhere near the bubble or an at large bid. They are 16-13 overall and just 5-12 in the conference. Their only chance to make the Big Dance would be to win the Big 12 tourney next week where they already know they’ll be playing Oklahoma State on Wednesday. This is a completely meaningless road game for this Wildcat team. KSU is off their Senior Night win on Wednesday as they whipped last place TCU. That was the game they wanted to win for the home crowd and the seniors while this one, as we’ve stated, really doesn’t matter. To top all of that, the Cats have been a terrible road team going just 1-7 on the road in conference play with their only win coming @ last place TCU. Tech head coach Tubby Smith stated last week that his team is “very close” to being “very good”. Before their most recent two game losing streak @ Kansas and @ WVU, the Raiders had won 5 straight. They are 13-3 at home with their only losses coming at the hands of Kansas, West Virginia by 4, and Baylor by 3. They have beaten some very good teams at home including the likes of Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Texas. On top of this being a huge home game for Tech, it’s also a revenge spot. They played at KSU early in the conference season (January 12th) and were whipped by 13 points. In that win, a poor shooting Wildcat team hit 56% of their shots overall including 52% from beyond the arc. They have hit the 50% mark overall just 3 times in 14 games since that win. On the flip side, Tech hit only 36% of their shots in that one. We look for the roles to reverse here as KSU in their 8 conference road games have been held under 40% five times and have not topped 42% in any of those games. Another huge positive here is if KSU gets behind, as we expect, and they need to foul late, Texas Tech is the #1 FT shooting team in the Big 12 and 26th nationally hitting 75% of their freebies as a team. We couldn’t ask for a better set up. Texas Tech rolls on Saturday. |
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03-04-16 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 192.5 | Top | 88-94 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
We will play UNDER in the Utah Jazz vs. Memphis Grizzlies game. This series has seen some very low scoring games as their teams have been built around defense. In the two meetings already this season these clubs have combined for 179 and 188 total points both of which stayed under the number. Interestingly enough, those two games had totals of 185.5 and 180 yet the oddsmakers have put a number out tonight that is much higher than the one they set in the first two games. VALUE! Looking further back at this series we find that eight straight meetings have all resulted in less total points scored than tonight's O/U line and 9 of the last 12 meetings have stayed under. Utah has struggled offensively in four straight games, failing to top 96 points in all four. These two teams are two of the SLOWEST paced teams in the NBA as the Grizz average just 93 possessions per game (29th) while the Jazz are last or 30th at 91 possessions per game. Memphis has been in some higher scoring games of late but they've faced some of the worst defensive teams in the league which has skewed their numbers. Both Utah and Memphis are top 6 in the league in least amount of points scored per game and we expect both defenses to dominate tonight. BET UNDER! |
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03-03-16 | Georgia Southern v. Louisiana-Monroe -8.5 | Top | 76-83 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UL Monroe -8.5 over Georgia Southern, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET There isn’t a hotter team in the Sun Belt than ULM. They have won 11 of their last 12 games with their only loss during that span coming in OT @ UL Lafayette. The Warhawks are coming off a 4 game road trip in which they won all 4 games. They are happy to be back at home where they haven’t played since Feb 13th. They are 11-0 at home this year (8-1 ATS) with 9 of those wins coming by double digits. ULM can lock up 2nd place in the Sun Belt with a win here. The Warhawks have been waiting for this one after playing one of their worst games of the season in mid January losing @ Ga Southern by 15 points. Monroe shot just 30% in that loss including hitting just 25% of their 3’s. Georgia Southern has been on a nice run as well but most of their damage has been done at home (6 of last 8 games played at home). We like UL Monroe, one of the most experienced teams in the nation with 4 senior starters, to take care of one of the youngest teams in the country (Ga Southern ranks 350th in experience out of 351 teams). Lay it. |
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03-03-16 | Spurs v. Pelicans UNDER 207 | Top | 94-86 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
We will play UNDER in the San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Pelicans. Both teams played last night which impacts tonight's game as these two teams average the least amount of points scored per game when playing without rest. San Antonio games average just 193PPG when playing the second night of a back to back compared to 197PPG when playing on 1 day rest, 204 on 2 days and 198 on 3 days rest. New Olreans games average 205PPG on the second night of a back to back which is lower than 207PPG on 1 day rest, 216 on 2 days rest and 208 on 3 days rest. San Antonio has the best overall defense in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency ratings as they allow just .978 points per possession and 92.3PPG. In their last five games they've held foes to under 43% shooting and 91.2PPG. The Spurs defensive efficiency rating is significant because we can compare them to other great defensive teams in the league when they face the Pelicans. If we take the top 8 DEFF teams in the league and what the results were when they faced the Pelicans we find this: In 13 meetings with similar teams the Pelicans and that opponent scored less than tonight's total (in regulation) 11 times. Those 13 games averaged 201 total points per game which is clearly less than tonight's number. The Spurs and Pelicans have met twice this season and produced 207 and 194 total points. The Spurs are one of the slower paced teams in the league and they'll dictate tempo here. Bet UNDER! |
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03-03-16 | Bradley +10.5 v. Loyola-Chicago | Top | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 21 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Bradley +10.5 over Loyola Chicago, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET These two this year with each team winning on the opponents court. Both games were low scoring with final scores of 54-53 and 54-43. This total is set at 114 so look for another game where points are tough to come by. That makes covering this larger type number very tough. Possessions will be limited and shot will be few and far between. These two combined to take just 202 shots in their 2 meetings making only 73 (36%). Loyola was +10 points in the 2 games combined but shot 25 more FT’s in those 2 games so keeping the margins close in that situation is pretty impressive for this young Bradley team. The Braves dominated the boards in the 2 games (+23) and we expect that to continue. Loyola’s offense was held to less than 60 points in over half of their MVC games (10 of 18) and this is not a team that often extends the margin. This has all the makings of another low scoring grind it out game and pushing a lead to double digits will be difficult for either. Take the points with Bradley here. |
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03-02-16 | Creighton +3.5 v. Providence | Top | 66-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Creighton +3.5 over Providence, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET on CBS Sports Network The Blue Jays have been waiting for this one since losing at home to Providence on a last second shot. The fact is the Friars have been a better road team that home team for much of this season. They are just 4-4 at home in Big East play. After starting the Big East season very well, Providence has now won only 3 of their last 9 games. On top of that, they are not at full strength. Future NBA’er Kris Dunn has been sick for about 2 weeks now. Head coach Ed Cooley said they really don’t know what it is. ““He’s had chills. He’s been throwing up. He just can’t shake it. He’s playing at probably about 40 percent,” Cooley stated after their win vs DePaul over the weekend. Dunn didn’t start the game and played only 17 minutes. In his last two games Dunn has scored only 10 total points on 5 of 15 shots. Creighton is the more efficient team on both ends of the court ranking higher than Providence in each. The Jays have proven they can get it done on the road with a 4-3 record in Big East play. We won’t need the points here as Creighton wins this game outright. |
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03-02-16 | Kings +4 v. Grizzlies | Top | 98-104 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
We will play on the SACRAMENTO KINGS over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Kings have lost three straight games and it would seem they are starting a late season swoon but that's not the case. Take a look at who the Kings have lost two recently. San Antonio, LA Clippers and Thunder who are 3 of the four best teams in the NBA. Looking at the Memphis Grizzlies schedule they have won 3 of their last four games but look at who they beat...Denver, and the Lakers twice. In between those wins was a loss to the Suns who are one of the worst teams in the league. Looking at the point spread on this game and we see the Grizzlies were just favored at home by about the same number against the 19-41 Minnesota Timberwolves. The Kings are coming off a game against the Thunder in which they scored 72 points in the paint which is a ridiculously high number so what do you think they'll do against a Memphis team without Marc Gasol. Sacramento is the 2nd highest scoring team in the paint in the league. Granted Memphis is first in the league in least amount of points scored in the lane but that was with Gasol for most of the season. The Grizzlies don't have much of a home court advantage as evidenced by their point differential +0.2PPG which is in the bottom third of the league. Grabbing the points with the Kings is the way to go here! |
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03-02-16 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia Tech +5 | Top | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech +5 over Pittsburgh, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET Va Tech is definitely a team that is flying under the radar right now in the ACC. How many people know that his team is 8-8 and with two home wins to close out the season could finish with a winning record in the ACC for the first time since 2011? They have won 4 of their last 6 games with their only losses coming on the road against ACC heavyweights Virginia & Miami. The Hokies have some nice momentum coming into this one having won 3 straight games, 2 coming on the road. They have been solid at home beating the likes of Virginia & Clemson here with tight losses to UNC & Louisville. Pitt is not that caliber. The Panthers are also in a tough spot heading on the road after upsetting Duke at home on Sunday. Off that loss might make it tough for a full focus here. Add to that the fact that Pitt walloped Va Tech earlier this year and that makes it even tougher. VT will be more than ready after what the players and coaches consider their worst effort of the ACC season @ Pitt. “I don’t know that we can play a lot worse than we did that night relative to our effort and our energy and our attitude toward how things played out. Our guys were aware of how it happened, so, yeah, I would say they remember it as well,” said head coach Buzz Williams this week. We look for this to be a tight game throughout and we’re getting 2+ possessions worth of points with the host here. |
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03-01-16 | Dayton -1.5 v. Richmond | Top | 85-84 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Dayton -1.5 over Richmond, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET The Flyers sit one game out of 1st place in the A10 and they are off a very bad home loss to Rhode Island. They shot just 41% in that loss but even more surprisingly allowed URI to hit 56% of their shot attempts. That was surprising because Dayton is the #1 defensive team in the conference and one of the best in the nation. They rank 1st in the conference in both defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. Only one other team has shot over 50% this season vs Dayton and that was Xavier. After a poor defensive effort, we expect Dayton to play very well on that end of the court tonight. They say good defense travels well and that has definitely been the case with Dayton as they are 7-2 in true road games this season. Richmond, on the other hand, is one of the worst defenses in the Atlantic 10. They also haven’t been great at home this year with just a 3-5 conference mark at Robins Center. Their most recent home game last week was a double digit loss to GW. The Spiders have beaten up on the lower tier teams in the conference but they have only one win this season over a team that is currently above .500 in the league. They are just 1-8 against A10 teams that sit higher than them in the standings. Everything points to Dayton here and we’ll lay the small number on the road. |
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03-01-16 | Miami (OH) v. Buffalo -10 | Top | 67-59 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Buffalo -10 over Miami Oh, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET Bulls 9-7 in MAC looking for first round bye in conference tourney. Top 4 teams get a bye and if Bulls win their last 2 games they guarantee themselves no worse than 4th seed. It’s Buffalo’s finel home game and Senior Night which always brings extra emotion. Miami Oh in 10th place in the conference and off 2 upset wins at home over Akron and Kent. Miami is buried near the bottom of the league and with a huge rivalry game with Ohio at home on deck this one may not be all that important to them. Redhawks are just 1-11 on the road this year with only win coming @ Western Michigan by 1 point. Miami is the worst offense in the conference ranking dead last in offensive efficiency, eFG%, 3-point FG%, and 2-point FG%. They’ve been held under 70 points in 12 of their 16 conference games and they’ll have trouble keeping up here vs a Buffalo team averaging 82 PPG at home. The Bulls won easily by 17 @ Miami and they will be focused here in their home finale and off an OT loss @ Ohio. Buffalo rolls to a big win tonight. |
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02-29-16 | 76ers +13 v. Wizards | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
We will play on the Philadelphia 76ers plus the points over the host Washington Wizards. A lot to do with this handicap is the scheduling as the Sixers catch the Wiz off a HUGE win over the Cleveland Cavaliers yesterday so it would be natural to let down here against a lowly 76ers team they just beat on the 26th. Washington had a make-up game right after the All-Star break so this will be their 8th game in just 12 days so fatigue becomes a factor. Philly also played yesterday and were blown out early by Orlando which is actually good news for us seeing the starters didn't log a lot of minutes for them. These same two teams just met in Philly with the Wizards winning by 9 points as a -7.5 point road favorite. That game was close throughout as the 76ers were only down 4-points entering the 4th quarter and the largest lead by Washington was 10-points. Washington has been a double-digit favorite just once all season and it's obvious they are over-priced here. I hate taking bad teams but will make the exception tonight. Grab the points! |
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02-28-16 | Arizona State v. Colorado -6.5 | Top | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Colorado -6.5 over Arizona St, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET To say the Devils are struggling would be an understatement. They have lost 3 straight by margins of 38, 35, and 13 points. They are just 1-7 on the road in Pac 12 play with their only win coming at last place Washington State. ASU sits dead last in the conference in offensive shooting percentage (40% in conference games) and defensive FG% (allowing 50% in league games). They are just 4-11 in league play with no wins over a team that currently sits above .500 in the league and half their Pac 12 wins (2) have come against last place Wash State. They come into a place where the Buffs have been nearly unbeatable. Their lone home loss was a 2-point setback to Utah, a game they led by double digits in the 2nd half. It’s CU’s final home game and they still have some work to do to make 100% sure they are invited to the Big Dance. They did beat Arizona here on Thursday night but a loss here would give that one back. Colorado has a tough game to close out the season next Saturday @ Utah so they want to make sure they get this one. A win here guarantees them a winning conference record and probably locks them into the Dance. |
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02-27-16 | Pistons v. Bucks UNDER 203 | Top | 102-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
UNDER 203 Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks - 7:35PM CT - We are going to play UNDER in the Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks game. The public is all in on the 'over' in this game and we'll go the other way as the line isn't fluctuating much even though the money is on 'over'. It's getting later in the season and games have playoff implications which means better defense as these paid athletes play harder on that end of the floor. The Pistons and Bucks are both battling for the post season and both should step it up today defensively. In their last five games the Bucks have been much better defensively holding foes to just 41.8% shooting while allowing just .992 points per possession which would be the second best number in the NBA over the last five games. Detroit has the 4th best defensive efficiency rating in the league over their last five games allowing just 1.104PPP. When playing with 2 days rest the Pistons are better yet defensively with their games averaging just 195.3PPG. Detroit has stayed under the number in 5 of their last six overall and the Bucks are 4-1 to the under when allowing 100+ points in their previous game. In the two meetings between these clubs this season they combined for 197 twice and they have not combined for more than today's total in six straight meetings. Value is on the UNDER! |
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02-27-16 | Maryland v. Purdue -3.5 | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Purdue -3.5 over Maryland, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET Purdue has been waiting for this one after blowing their game @ Maryland earlier this month. The Terps won by 9 but that was not indicative of how the game played out. Purdue actually led for much of the game including holding a 4-point lead with around 5:00 minutes remaining. The Boilers got “homered” by the officials in that game as Maryland was 24 of 27 from the line in that game while Purdue was 2 of 5. Maryland was playing at the top of their game at the time but have since fallen off big time losing at home to Wisconsin, losing @ 2-13 Minnesota, and then struggling to beat Michigan at home in their most recent game – the Wolverines led with just over 5:00 remaining. The Boilers should handle Maryland inside where they are the #1 offensive AND defensive rebounding team in the Big Ten and they block more shots than any team in the conference. That leaves the Terps to try and win this game from the perimeter where the #1 threat, Melo Trimble, has been really struggling making just 9 of his last 47 shot attempts in conference play (4 games). Purdue has had a full week off to get ready for this revenger and they have won 21 of their last 22 games here at Mackey Arena. This number should be higher in our opinion and we’ll take advantage by playing Purdue. |
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02-27-16 | South Carolina v. Mississippi State | Top | 58-68 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State even over South Carolina, Saturday 2:30 PM ET While MSU is just 5-10 in the SEC, they are vastly improved from earlier in the season. They started the conference season 0-5 and have gone 5-5 since. Their wins over the last month have included Ole Miss, Arkansas, Alabama, and Vandy. They are off a down to the wire loss @ Texas A&M earlier this week (lost by 2). South Carolina is off two huge home wins beating Florida in OT and then whipping Tennessee (Vols without their leading scorer) earlier this week. The Gamecocks have a big revenger on deck with UGA. SC is just 1-3 their last 4 road games with 2 double digit losses and a setback at conference door mat Mizzou. When these two met in South Carolina, the MSU was just 1-5 and not playing well. The Gamecocks won by 10 and they are +10 makes at the FT line which was obviously the difference in the game. We’ve got a feeling off 2 big wins, SC takes this one a little lightly. MSU is now back at full strength as super frosh Newman was back in the line up @ A&M after missing the Bulldogs game @ Bama, a game which State actually won on the road. This is a dangerous team right now and we feel South Carolina isn’t as good as their record might indicate. State wins this one. |
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02-27-16 | Illinois State +16 v. Wichita State | Top | 58-74 | Push | 0 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois State +16 over Illinois State, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET It’s going to be really tough for the Shockers to extend the margin to this number in what we anticipate to be a slow paced, low scoring game. ISU beat Wichita 58-53 at home a few weeks ago and while we get the revenge factor, this number is too high. They can get their revenge without getting a cover here. ISU knows the best way for them to compete is to keep the game low scoring. They’ve done that vs the Shockers better than anyone else in the MVC. The last 4 meetings dating back to the beginning of last year, the Redbirds are 2-2 vs WSU with final scores 58-53 & 65-62 (ISU wins) and 68-62 & 70-62 (ISU losses). Really tough to win big in those type of games and we look for another one here (opening total is set in the low 130’s). ISU is playing great basketball right now. They have won 9 of their last 11 games to move into a tie for 2nd place with Evansville. Wichita already has the top seed and conference title locked up so no need for them to waste too much energy here. Any type of win would just be fine. This stays much closer than this number. Take the points with Illinois State. |
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