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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-29-20 | Magic v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 113-114 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -3 over Orlando Magic, 8:30PM ET We like the Spurs in this setting as they are coming off their annual rodeo road trip, then lost at home to Dallas. Now the Spurs catch a Magic team off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in just four nights. Orlando is one of the worst offensive teams in the league and have a 11-18 SU road record with a negative differential of minus -3PPG. San Antonio shoots it and defends better at home than league averages and based on similar opponents in recent home games the Spurs should be favored by 5.5-points here. Orlando struggles to score on the road with one of the worst offenses in the NBA. The Magic are 23rd in offensive efficiency, 25th in scoring and one of the worst shooting teams away from home. The Spurs are in desperation mode if they want to extend their 22 year playoff streak so a win today is borderline critical. Lay the points |
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02-29-20 | Duke v. Virginia +4 | Top | 50-52 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Virginia +4 over Duke, Saturday at 6 PM ET Don’t look now but last year’s National Champions are hitting their stride. Back in mid January with UVA sitting at 4-4 in the ACC and 12-6 overall, there was talk that the defending champs might not even make the tourney this season. That talk is now out the window with the Cavs winning 8 of their last 9 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Louisville in a game they led with 3:00 minutes remaining. They are now 20-7 overall and 12-5 in the ACC. Defensively they are fantastic as usual ranking #1 in the ACC in defensive efficiency, points allowed, defensive eFG%, 2-point %, and 3-point %. They play at a very slow pace which we feel will frustrate this young Duke team (3 freshmen in the starting line up) that loves to play fast. The Blue Devils are vastly overrated in our opinion. They are 13-4 in a down ACC but they have not been very good on the road.  Duke is just 3-3 their last 6 road games including a 113-101 double OT loss on Tuesday @ Wake Forest who is 5-12 in conference play. They have also played the easiest schedule thus far in ACC play. Of the top 3 team in the league (besides themselves) they have faced 2 of them (Louisville & FSU) both at home beating the Seminoles by 5 and losing to Louisville by 6. The other team in the top 4 is Virginia so this sets up to be Duke’s toughest road game of the season thus far. The Devils have covered only 1 of their last 7 as a road favorite while UVA has been a dog just 8 times in the last 3 season going 6-2 ATS in those games. Virginia has won 43 of their last 48 home games SU and we like them to win this one as well. If they don’t we anticipate the game being very close so take the points. |
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02-29-20 | Loyola-Chicago v. Bradley -3 | Top | 67-66 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Bradley -3 over Loyola Chicago, Saturday at 2 PM ET Love this spot for the Braves in their home finale. With 3 seniors in the starting line up this home game will be extra special. On top of that, a win here moves the Braves into a tie for 2nd place in the MVC with Loyola, their opponent on Saturday. Bradley is 15-1 this year at home with their only loss coming at the hands of Northern Iowa who sits in 1st place in the conference. Going back further, this team has simply been fantastic here at Carver Arena winning 40 of their last 49 games here. If you throw out their home loss to UNI, the Braves have won their other 7 conference home games by an average margin of +10.8 points. They average 76 PPG at home while shooting 48%. They are also one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation hitting nearly 37% which ranks them 33rd out of 351 teams. That should be a solid match for them at home vs a Loyola defense that ranks 318th nationally at defending the arc allowing 37%. Over their last 10 games, the Ramblers have allowed 87 three pointers (nearly 9 per game) on 212 attempts for 41% which is obviously not good. While Loyola is 12-5 in conference play, one game ahead of Bradley, they are just 3-5 SU on the road with their wins coming @ Evansville (0-17 in conference play), @ Illinois State (4-13 in MVC play), and @ Valpo (9-8 on conference games). The Ramblers struggle offensively on the road averaging just 62 PPG which won’t do it here vs a team that thrives offensively at home as we discussed earlier. When these two met on February 1st @ Loyola the Ramblers won 62-51 as 5.5 point favorites. The Braves actually shot a higher percentage overall and from 3 point land, however Loyola won the game at the FT line where they attempted 30 FT’s to just 5 for Bradley. It was shocking the game was as close as it was with that discrepancy at the stripe. We don’t see that happening on Saturday and even if all else remains the same, Bradley will get the win. |
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02-28-20 | Kings v. Grizzlies -3 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies -3 over Sacramento Kings, 8PM ET The Grizzlies have lost 4 straight games, all of which were on the road and started with a loss in Sacramento. The Grizz last three losses were against three of the best teams in the West, Lakers, Clippers and Rockets, with the most recent being an embarrassing loss in Houston by 28. Again, these two teams met just a few days ago in Sacramento and the Grizzlies were favored by a point and now they’re laying just 3-points? Sacramento comes into this game off a loss last night in Oklahoma City so fatigue becomes a factor. The Grizzlies have played 7 of their last eight games on the road but it you look at recent home games they are 10-1 SU with several impressive wins over the likes of the Spurs, Blazers, Rockets and Nuggets. Those 10 home wins have come by an average of 10.2PPG. The Kings are 12-19 SU on the road this season with an average loss margin of -2.3PPG which is slightly lower than tonight’s number. The home team has covered 8 of the last nine in this series, including both this year. The Grizzlies bounce back after a horrible showing in Houston. |
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02-28-20 | Georgia Southern +5 v. Georgia State | Top | 79-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia Southern +5 over Georgia State, Friday at 7 PM ET In their first meeting this season Georgia Southern held a 14-point lead with 12:00 minutes remaining and blew it with Georgia State winning 82-77 which was State’s largest lead of the game. From that 12:00 minute mark on, the Eagles were only able to score a grand total of 12 points in that loss. We feel these teams are now headed in opposite directions and we give Southern a great shot to win this game. State has lost 4 of their last 7 games and two of their wins game vs LA Monroe (last place team) and Coastal Carolina who has lost 8 of their last 11. Georgia Southern is 5-3 since their loss to Ga State and they have been successful on the road winning 3 of their last 4 and they are 5-4 SU overall on the road in Sun Belt play. Both these teams are 11-7 in league play so this is a battle for seeding in the conference tourney. The Panthers come in off back to back losses and might be without starting guard Phillips who is their best 3-point shooter hitting 43%. He missed the last 2 games due to injury. Speaking of shooting 3’s, Georgia State relies heavily on scoring from the arc with 35% of their points coming from deep so if Phillips is unable to play that will really hurt this team. Tonight they face an Eagle defense that ranks #1 in the Sun Belt at defending the arc allowing 27% and Southern is also the most efficient defense in the league allowing just 0.96 points per possession. This rivalry has been a closely contested series with 8 of the last 11 being decided by 6 points or less. This line opened Georgia State -5.5 and despite 70% of the tickets coming in on the home team, the line has dropped to -5 at many places. We agree with the move and expect this game to be very close whoever wins.   |
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02-27-20 | South Dakota State v. North Dakota State -4 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Dakota State -4 over South Dakota State, Thursday at 9 PM ET As you already know, we went against this NDSU team last week for a big play in what we thought was a great spot to fade them. You know the details of that one so we won’t get into that. However, after beating South Dakota last week, they went on the road to play one of the lower tier teams in the Summit League, North Dakota, and lost. Now we feel coming off that loss, playing at home with the conference title on the line, this is a very good spot to jump on North Dakota State. The Bison sit one spot below tonight’s opponent South Dakota State who is in first place. If the Bison can win here and then beat Omaha at home on Saturday they will tie for first place in the Summit. NDSU is a perfect 6-0 at home this year in conference play and not only do they have revenge set up for a tight game they lost @ South Dakota State earlier this year, they also remember what happened here last year. In their game here last year NDSU blew a 17 point second half lead and South Dakota State hit a half court shot at the buzzer to win 78-77. In their first match up this year @ SDSU, the Jackrabbits shot 56% from the field and they were +10 FT’s made and the game still went to the wire with them winning 78-73. Now we get the Bison at home where they average 81 PPG and shoot 49% in a game they’ve been waiting for.  On top of that, Jackrabbits leading scorer Douglas Wilson (19 PPG) was lifted from their game over the weekend due to a foot injury. He had problems with that same foot entering the game and was limping late when his foot was landed on and he had to come out of the game. His status is up in the air for Thursday. South Dakota State has already clinched at least a share of the league title and their 2 conference losses both came on the road @ South Dakota and @ Omaha, 2 of the top 5 teams in the league. Now they face their toughest opponent on the road in a less than ideal spot. If NDSU can get a lead and they need to hold it or extend it late, we get the best FT shooting team in the conference as they hit 81% of their freebies in league play. Great spot here for North Dakota State and we’ll take them to win and cover.   |
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02-27-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan -6 | Top | 81-74 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan -6 over Wisconsin, Thursday at 7 PM ET The Wolverines are playing as well as anyone in the Big 10 right now and possibly as well as anyone in the country. They have won 7 of their last 8 games and in the Ken Pom power rankings Michigan has risen from #30 at the beginning of February all the way to #9 going into tonight’s game. That’s the largest upward move of any team in the nation over the last month. Much of that improvement has been the return of leading scorer Isaiah Livers (14 PPG). The Wolverines are 12-3 when Livers has been healthy and played at least half the game and they are 6-6 without him. Livers missed 9 games since December 29th due to injury but his last 4 games back Michigan is 4-0 winning each by at least 8 points.  Livers is averaging 15.5 PPG during that stretch and for the season he is hitting nearly 45% of his 3-point attempts. During their 5 game winning streak Michigan has knocked off Michigan State by 9, won @ Rutgers by 8 giving the Knights their first home loss of the season, beat a resurgent Indiana team by 24 at home, and topped Purdue on the road by 8 in a game the Boilers had to have. Impressive run to say the least. During that 5 game run Michigan is outscoring opponents 75-60 and their defense has been lock down holding opponents to 37% shooting and just 23% from deep. Wisconsin is also on a nice 4 game winning streak but the 2 runs are not comparable. The Badgers have played 3 of their last 4 games at home and their lone road game during this stretch was @ Nebraska, the worst team in the Big 10. Prior to their road win @ Nebraska, the Badgers had lost 4 straight road games @ Purdue, @ Michigan State, @ Iowa, and @ Minnesota with all but one of those losses (lost by 6 @ Iowa) coming by at least 12 points. The last 2 games, both at home, the Badgers were leading fairly tight games ate vs Purdue and Rutgers and converted their FT’s with the opposition fouling late. UW was +16 and +11 FT’s made in those games which they won by 4 and 8 points. We don’t see that happening here as we don’t see them leading late and they are facing a Michigan team that doesn’t foul very much. Wisconsin’s offense relies too heavily on the 3 for us to trust them on the road vs solid competition. 40% of their points in conference play come from deep which is #1 in the league. The problem is they only shoot 31% from the arc on the road and they are facing a Michigan defense that ranks 3rd in the conference at defending the arc and has really stepped up their defense as of late as we mentioned. Minus their road win @ Nebraska (who is the worst defensive team in the conference) the Badgers have averaged just 55 PPG their previous 4 road games. Facing a Michigan offense that has topped 70 in 4 of their last 5 games including vs MSU (13th ranked in defensive efficiency) and Purdue (22nd ranked in defensive efficiency). That all means Wisconsin could be in trouble here. We like the Wolverines to win this game by double digits. |
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02-26-20 | Utah v. Stanford +7.5 | Top | 62-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Stanford -7.5 over Utah, Thursday at 10 PM ET Utah has one of the youngest teams in the nation with 3 sophomores and 2 freshmen in the starting line up. They also bring 2 more freshmen off the bench as part of their top 8. Because of that, they have really been poor on the road this year many playing in venues they’ve never seen before. The Utes are 0-7 SU (1-6 ATS) on the road in Pac 12 play with their losses coming by margins of 4, 16, 16, 18, 19, 19, and 39 points. As you can see only one competitive game in the entire bunch. They are averaging just 61 PPG on the road and have been held under 60 points in 5 road games this season. The Utes have made only 38% of their shots away from home and just 28% from 3 point land. That’s going to be a massive problem tonight as they face a Stanford defense that ranks 5th nationally in defensive efficiency holding opponents to only 60 PPG at home. This is also a game the Cardinal have been waiting for after leading @ Utah with 12 seconds remaining in regulation but losing in double OT. Stanford averaged a putrid 0.77 points per possession in that game (their lowest of the season) and still had a shot at a road win. The host is 7-1-1 ATS the last 8 in this series and it looks to us like Utah’s freshmen (4 in the top 8) are hitting a wall late in the season losing 3 of their last 4 games. With their road struggles already in place we see Stanford winning this one by double digits. |
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02-26-20 | Mavs v. Spurs +5.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
ASA 3* play on: San Antonio Spurs +5.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET The Spurs are finally home after their annual Rodeo Road Trip which saw them play eight straight road games. Not only were they on the road the entire month of February but it included a schedule of the Western Conferences best teams (Clippers, Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets, Thunder, Jazz and Thunder again). With three days rest they are prepared to take on the instate rival Dallas Mavericks. The Spurs won 2 of their three final games against the Thunder and Jazz but were then blown out in their most recent game against the Thunder. We like the situation as good teams bounce back off horrible showings. Despite an overall losing record the Spurs average loss margin is just -1.2PPG this season overall and +1.2PPG at home. In their own building the Spurs are about league average in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, which should be worse given their overall record. Dallas though does have the 2nd best point differential on the NBA at plus +6.9PPG and are 19-9 SU away from home but those numbers are somewhat misleading based on scheduling. In their last eleven road games the Mavs are 7-4 SU BUT only two of those wins were against winning teams. They also have road losses to the Hawks, Wizards and Suns in that stretch. The Mavs with Luca were recently favored by 4-points at Orlando who isn’t as good as this Spurs team, even without Aldridge tonight. Since 2017 San Antonio is 17-8 SU (68%) at home as an underdog with an average margin of victory of +1.3PPG and covering by nearly 5PPG. The Dog has covered 8 of the last ten meetings. Grab the points! |
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02-25-20 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma +2.5 | Top | 51-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma +2.5 over Texas Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET This is simply a must win for Oklahoma’s NCAA tourney hopes. Right now the Sooners are sitting barely in the tourney or barely out of the tourney depending on which bracket expert you follow. After losing 3 straight games, they can’t afford a loss here with 2 of their last 3 games on the road. This game isn’t a true home game for them as it will be played in Oklahoma City although the crowd will be all OU. They’ve also played at this venue once already this season beating Mississippi State in late January. Oklahoma is coming off 3 straight losses and because of that we’re getting some value in this game. Let’s keep in mind their 3 losses weren’t necessarily unexpected as they were beaten @ Kansas, lost at home to Baylor, and then lost over the weekend @ Oklahoma State. The first two setbacks were absolutely expected as they were facing to 2 best teams in the Big 12 and 2 top 5 nationally ranked teams. We weren’t surprised they lost @ arch rival OSU over the weekend as those first 2 games took a lot out of this team while the Cowboys were playing their Super Bowl, so to speak, at home. We expect a huge performance after getting embarrassed on Saturday. The Sooners have lost only 2 home games (including games at OKC) this year and those were vs Kansas & Baylor. Now they face a young Texas Tech team (3 freshman in their top 7 players) that is coming off a 30-point blowout win @ Iowa State. The Red Raiders come in fat and happy so to speak while OU Is backed into a corner. These two met just on February 4th and Tech was an 8.5 point favorite at home. That tells us this line should be pick-em or OU favored by 1 so the value is there. In that first meeting Texas Tech won 69-61 and while the Sooners attempted 10 more FG’s, the Raiders shot lights out hitting over 50% for the game and from beyond the arc. Despite the red hot shooting from Tech, OU led at half and trailed by just 3 with 1:00 minute remaining in the game. Now they get the Red Raiders away from home where they are just 3-4 SU in conference play. We like OU to get this much needed win tonight. |
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02-25-20 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 231.5 | Top | 108-97 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
ASA’s play on: UNDER 231.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors, 7:30PM ET This the second meeting of the season for these two teams who met last year in the Eastern Conference Finals. We expect a playoff type atmosphere for this contest north of the border between two teams that feel they can win it all this season. The Raptors last thirteen games have been against a very soft schedule with only three of those games coming against a team with a winning record, and all three were against the Pacers. The last time the Raptors faced a team of the Bucks caliber was back on January 22nd against the 76ers and that game ended with 202 total points. The Bucks played an OT thriller last night against the Wizards but because of their depth, fatigue won’t be an issue tonight. The Bucks games have averaged 227 total points per game when Milwaukee is not rested. When these same two teams squared off earlier this season the posted total on the game was 227 and they combined for 220 total points. In fact, nine of the last ten meeting has resulted in 231 or less total points. These two teams are the two best defensive efficiency teams in the NBA as the Bucks allow just 1.021 points per possession and the Raptors give up just 1.042PPP. This game shapes up to be a very low scoring affair with a playoff like intensity. Bet UNDER! |
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02-24-20 | Suns v. Jazz -8 | Top | 131-111 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
ASA play on: Utah Jazz -8 over Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET We like the situation as the Jazz are off a pair of bad losses to other Western Conference teams (Spurs, Rockets) following the break which will have them focused here. Phoenix has been a team we played on quite a bit early in the season and were rewarded with profits, but they’ve been fading with a 4-11 ATS record their last fifteen games. The Suns are 18th in offensive and defensive efficiency ratings on the road and an average loss margin of minus -3.4PPG (17th). Utah will lock down the Suns defensively with the 4th best defensive efficiency unit in the NBA when they are at home allowing just 1.052 points per possession. Utah is 20-7 SU in Salt Lake City with an average winning margin of +6.2PPG. Granted, it was early in the season, but the Jazz were favored by -4.5-points in Phoenix this season and now laying a few more points at home? Bet the value and take Utah minus the points. |
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02-24-20 | Louisville +3 v. Florida State | Top | 67-82 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Louisville +3 over Florida State, Monday at 7 PM ET These two met in early January and FSU pulled the road upset @ Louisville 78-65. The Seminoles shot lights out in that game hitting over 50% of their shots overall and 60% of their attempts inside the arc in route to a 1.20 points per possession performance. That was against a Louisville defense that allowed just 0.92 PPP on the season which ranks them 29th nationally. Since that outing the Cards have played 14 games holding 11 of those teams to 1.00 PPP or less. We expect the U of L defense to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight in this revenge match up.  Offensively a very good Louisville team (11th nationally in offensive efficiency) shot only 39% in that first meeting. We expect the Cards to be much better on both ends tonight. FSU is very good but they’ve had a number of games that have gone to the wire with 8 of their last 11 games decided by 6 points or less. The Noles are also very good on defense however if they have one weakness, it’s defending the arc where they rank 9th in the ACC allowing opponents to shoot 33% in league play. That could be a problem for them tonight facing a Louisville offense that ranks 7th nationally in 3-point percentage and they are hitting almost 41% from deep in ACC play (1st in the conference). FSU also thrives on rebounding often dominating teams on the boards. That won’t happen tonight vs a Louisville team that is a very good rebounding team and actually won the battle of the glass in the first meeting 37 to 32 including 19 offensive rebounds (47% of their misses). The Cardinals had back to back losses earlier this month as they hit their bottom so to speak. They have since regained their mojo with two blowout wins over Syracuse (by 24) and UNC (by 17). They are 6-2 in ACC road games this year including a win @ Duke. This is just the 3rd time Louisville has been an underdog this season with the other 2 coming @ Duke (Cards won the game) and @ Kentucky (Cards lost in OT). The road team has won 3 of last 4 with only home team win during that run coming in OT and we’ll call for Louisville to pick up a road win tonight. |
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02-23-20 | Maryland v. Ohio State -2.5 | Top | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Ohio State -2.5 over Maryland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET It’s not often we find a top 10 team as an underdog and when we do we usually like to go against them. While we expect Maryland (ranked #7 in the polls) to be a popular underdog on Sunday (65% of the tickets currently on the Terps) there is a reason the oddsmakers set them as such. Despite their conference records (OSU is 7-8 and Maryland is 12-3) the Bucks are favored and we agree. Our power ratings have these teams only a few spots apart nationally and our spread on this game is OSU -3.5. The Terps come in overvalued because they are on a 9 game winning streak and they have a monumental home game on deck with Michigan State. Maryland topped Sparty on the road during this streak but they were down 7 with just 3:00 minutes remaining and outscored MSU 14-0 to end the game. A lucky might be an understatement. MSU was favored by 7 in that game and now we’re getting a very similar OSU team (rated only a few spots behind MSU in our power rankings) laying only 2.5. Also during their 9 game run Maryland has played nearly half of those games (4) vs the three lowest rated teams in the Big 10 – Northwestern (twice), Nebraska, and Indiana and they needed to hold on for dear life vs the Huskers (won by 2) and Indiana (won by 1). The Terps are just 4-4 SU on the road this year and this is a dangerous spot for them. OSU is coming off a loss @ Iowa and this is a revenge spot. When these two played @ Maryland the Terps were favored by just 2.5 points and beat the Bucks by 12. OSU had 21 more FG attempts in that game but shot just 31% from the field and 19% from 3. They also attempted only 10 FT’s while Maryland took 24 from the charity stripe. Now at home, we look for OSU, one of the best shooting teams in the nation (25th in shooting percentage and 18th in 3 point percentage) to shoot much better. At home they average 76 PPG, shoot 49% and hit over 41% of their 3’s. Maryland has had a number of breaks during their winning streak and we think it ends today. The favorite in this series has covered 8 of the last 10 and we expect the Buckeyes to play very well at home. Ohio State is the play.     |
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02-22-20 | Alabama v. Ole Miss -2.5 | Top | 103-78 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Ole Miss -2.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET Ole Miss began the month of January with a 6 game losing streak and things looked dim for the Rebels. However, since late January, they turned the corner and we love how this team has been playing, especially at home. They are coming off back to back road losses but they played wire to wire in both of those games. They lost @ Kentucky by 5 and followed that up with a 3 point loss @ Mizzou. A close look at those results reveals that Ole Miss led Kentucky with 1:30 to go in the game before losing and in their follow up, potential letdown spot @ Missouri, they were tied with the Tigers with under 1:00 minute remaining. Prior to those 2 solid losses, if there is such a thing, the Rebels blasted South Carolina by 14, Florida by 17, and Mississippi State by 25 all at home. In those 3 home wins Ole Miss shot 48% averaging 78 PPG while allowing their opponents to shoot only 37% and just 59 PPG. All 3 of those opponents sit at 8-5 or better in the SEC and today they face an Alabama team that sits at 6-7 in conference play. Bama has lost 5 of their last 7 games with 1 of those 2 wins coming in OT vs Georgia who is 3-10 in SEC play. They rely very heavily on the 3 point shot (12th nationally with 40% of their points coming from beyond the arc) which we think can be dangerous on the road. Away from home they shoot just 33% from 3 and they just happen to be facing a Mississippi  defense than ranks 6th nationally in 3-point defense allowing only 28%. If the Crimson Tide 3’s aren’t falling this team is in trouble and we think that will be the case here. Since 1997, these two SEC rivals have met @ Ole Miss 19 times with the Rebels winning 16 of those games. We like Ole Miss to win and cover here. |
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02-21-20 | Suns v. Raptors OVER 229 | Top | 101-118 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
ASA play on: OVER 229 Phoenix Suns @ Toronto Raptors, 7:30PM ET Fresh players after the All-Star break led to a 5-1 Over trend last night in the NBA for teams playing their first game after the break. Tonight, the Suns and Raptors meet, and the situation warrants an Over wager on their game. These teams rank 12th and 13th in scoring this season with both averaging over 112PPG. The Raptors are 13th in offensive efficiency, Phoenix is 17th. The Suns prefer to play fast with the 9th fastest pace in the NBA, the Raptors are also in the top half of the league with the 13th fastest tempo. The Suns defense has allowed 116 or more points in half of their last ten games and Toronto has scored 115 plus in 7 of their last ten. The Raptors last game before the break was a horrible offensive showing as they managed just 91-points in a loss to the Nets so expect a focused effort here.  In their last five games these teams are both shooting over an average of 48% which is well above league average of 45.9%. Let’s not forget the league average total points scored per game is 223PPG so asking two of the higher scoring, faster paced teams to scored 229 or more shouldn’t be a problem. |
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02-20-20 | Oregon v. Arizona State +2.5 | Top | 72-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Arizona State +2.5 over Oregon, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET ASU who was basically dead in mid January with no shot at the NCAA, has now won 7 of their last 8 to climb on to the NCAA bubble. Their lone loss during that 8 game run was a 2-point road setback @ Washington State. They are playing easily their best basketball of the season and they have big momentum coming off their first 2 game Pac 12 road sweep (Stanford & Cal) in 10 years. They are let by one of the best unknown players in the country in Remy Martin. The junior guard is averaging 20 PPG and has scored at least that in 9 of his 12 Pac 12 games. He will be facing off against another top notch talent in Oregon’s PG Payton Pritchard. Both scored 29 points in their first meeting which was a 78-69 Oregon win in early January. The Devils are a much different at this point in the season as that loss first loss to Oregon followed up by a loss to Colorado had ASU at 1-3 in conference play. They are now 9-4. Their lone home loss in Pac 12 play was that 7-point setback vs Colorado who rates as the best team in the Pac 12. Since that loss they’ve beaten Arizona, UCLA, USC, and Utah here in Tempe. The Ducks have not been a very good road team in conference play with a 2-4 record. Their only road wins in league play came @ Washington in OT and @ California, the worst team in the league, by 5. So even their wins have come down to the wire. The Ducks average just 65 PPG on the road and they are facing a team that can play some defense with ASU ranking 32nd nationally in defensive efficiency. The Devils are 7-1-1 ATS their last 9 as a home underdog and they beat Oregon here last year by 14. Oregon can’t be trusted on the road and with the Sun Devils playing well and playing for their NCAA lives, we like them to win outright.   |
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02-20-20 | Heat -6 v. Hawks | Top | 124-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
ASA play on: Miami Heat -6 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30PM ET We realize we are laying a bit of a premium price here with the Heat but the situation warrants a bet on Miami. With the All-Star break the Heat were afforded extra time to work in the new additions prior to the trade deadline and build chemistry moving forward. Miami brought in veterans Iquodala and Crowder to compete with the Raptors and Bucks in the East. The Heat will be better because of the deals and we expect it to show tonight in Atlanta. Miami is just 1-4 SU their last five games but all were on the road against Western Conference foes including the Clippers, Jazz and Blazers. Atlanta was also active prior to the trade deadline and acquired center Capela from the Rockets who is inactive tonight. The Hawks are perceived as an offensive team, but the reality is, they rank 27th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.059 points per possession and the defense isn’t any better, ranking 28th in DEFF. In comparison the Heat rank 14th in defensive efficiency ratings and 7th in OEFF. The Heat have struggled on the road this season, but the Hawks have the 4th worst home record the past two seasons with a 26-41 SU record and an average loss margin of -3.8PPG. Miami has beaten this Hawks team three times this season by 15, 9 and 14 points already so coving this number shouldn’t be a problem tonight. Lay the points. |
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02-18-20 | Kent State v. Eastern Michigan +3 | Top | 49-70 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Eastern Michigan +3 over Kent State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET After starting the MAC season losing 7 straight games, EMU has now won 4 of 5 and they are playing their best basketball of the season. Their only loss in their last 5 games was @ Akron by a final score of 59-58. It was actually an impressive loss as Akron is the highest rated team in the MAC (70th) and the only team ranked inside the top 100. They were even showing signs of breaking out during their 7 game conference losing streak with 5 of those losses coming by 6 points or less. The oddsmakers haven’t adjusted enough for EMU’s improvement as they have now covered 6 of their last 7 games with their only ATS loss during that stretch coming by a single point. Kent is on the opposite track. After starting the MAC schedule with a perfect 3-0 record, they are just 4-5 their last 9 games. They are also 3-3 on the road in MAC play with two of those wins coming vs Western Michigan and Miami (OH), the two lowest rated teams in the conference. The Golden Flashes have been favored on the road in MAC play 3 times this season and lost all 3 outright! EMU has one of the better defenses in the nation (38th in defensive efficiency) and in conference play they are allowing just 0.95 PPG (2nd in the MAC). While their shooting numbers for the season are not great, they seemed to have turn the corner on that end of the court with their current 5 game run. During that span they are shooting 48% while allowing their opponents to hit only 37% of their shots. This is a situation where an undervalued team, with an outstanding defense, playing at their peak is getting points at home. Always a solid spot and we like Eastern Michigan to win this game at home. |
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02-16-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota -5 | Top | 58-55 | Loss | -103 | 2 h 18 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -5 over Iowa, Sunday at 1 PM ET The Gophs have had a full week off to get ready for this must win home game. Minnesota sits squarely on the bubble (11th or 12th Big Ten team) and they cannot afford to lose this game. They’ve been very good at home with their only Big 10 loss here at the Barn coming to Michigan State. Since that home loss to Sparty the Gophers are just 1-2 SU (both losses on the road) but they are playing well. In their last 3 they blasted Wisconsin here by 18 points and then took both Illinois and Penn State, two of the top teams in the conference, to the wire on the road. They showed us a lot in their most recent game last week @ Penn State (currently in 1st place in the Big 10) when they got down big early in the 2nd half and battled back to almost get the win. They cut the lead to 3 points with 4:30 remaining and lost by 6 vs a PSU team that is on an 8 game winning streak. Iowa, like many Big 10 teams, has been great at home, but not good on the road. They have a grand total of one conference road win and that was @ Northwestern. They just lost by 12 @ Indiana on Thursday and now play on the road again just a few days later. Their last 3 conference road games have resulted in losses by margins of 12, 36, and 10 points. They also lost @ Nebraska this season, the lowest rated team in the league. The Hawkeyes will also most likely be without one of their top players on Sunday as starting guard CJ Fredrick injured his ankle on Thursday @ Indiana and is doubtful here. Iowa blasted Minnesota by 20 points in their meeting in Iowa City this season giving the Gophs some extra incentive here. The home team has won 6 straight in this series with the favorite covering 5 in a row. The road woes continue for Iowa as Minnesota gets a much needed win. |
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02-15-20 | West Virginia v. Baylor -5.5 | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Baylor -5.5 over West Virginia, Saturday at 4 PM ET This game sets up perfectly for Baylor in our opinion. The Bears are coming off a win @ Texas which was their 21st consecutive win. Their only loss of the season was by 3 points vs Washington way back on November 8th. Many still seem to doubt this Baylor team and this is a statement game for them playing a WVU team that is ranked 12th in the country with an 18-6 record. Getting a few extra days to prepare after having played on Monday is a bonus as well. The Mountaineers, on the other hand, just played on Wednesday night. Not only did they play on Wednesday but it was their biggest home game of the year as they took on Kansas. The Mountaineers led for nearly the entire first half (6 point lead at half) and still held a lead with under 6:00 minutes remaining in the game before KU went on an 18-3 run over the final 9:00 minutes of the game to knock off WVU 58-49 (Baylor won by 12 @ Kansas in their only meeting this year). It was a devastating home loss that took a lot out of this team physically and emotionally after leading for much of the game. Now they have to go on the road a few days later to face one of the top teams in the nation that is 11-0 at home holding teams to just 56 PPG on 36% shooting. This is a young West Virginia team (3 sophomore starters & a freshman starter) that has been bad on the road this year. They have 6 losses this year and 5 of them have come on the road. They are just 1-4 SU in Big 12 road games this season with their only win coming @ Oklahoma State, the lowest rated team in the conference. Recently their head coach Bob Huggins had to get on his team about focus and effort because they are so young and inconsistent on the road. They are already a poor shooting team (42% good for 238th nationally & 30% from deep good for 319th nationally) and it gets worse on the road where they make only 38% of their shots. That’s a problem here as they are facing a Baylor team that is lock down defensively ranking 4th nationally in defensive efficiency and 9th nationally in eFG% defense. This is simply a bad match up for WVU as well. They thrive on creating turnovers (1st in the Big 12) which leads to easy baskets which is key because they are not a good shooting team. Baylor only turns the ball over 17% of the time in conference play which is 2nd least in the league. The Bears also capitalize by getting to the FT line much more than their opponents as 22% of their points in conference play come from the charity stripe (most in the Big 12). However, Baylor doesn’t foul much and when WVU gets to the line they only make 62% of them (331st nationally). Lastly the Mountaineers usually dominate the boards which leads to easy points, however the Bears are a solid rebounding team (4th best offensive rebounding team in the nation) so they should hold their own on the boards. Last year Baylor was laying 12 points in this home match up vs West Virginia and this line is much lower despite this being a much better team this season. We understand the Mountaineers are better this year as well, however we feel they are overvalued due to their home dominance. This young team has slipped up on the road often this year and now they play the best team they’ve seen this season (maybe Kansas although Baylor won by 12 @ KU as we mentioned). Double digit win here for Baylor. |
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02-13-20 | Washington State v. UCLA -8 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UCLA -8 over Washington State, Thursday at 11 PM ET The Bruins have hit their stride and they are playing their best basketball of the season. After losing 6 of 7 in a stretch that spanned from mid December to mid January, new head coach Mick Cronin, who came over from Cincinnati, got on his team about effort and defense. They have since won 5 of their last 7 games holding 4 of their opponents under 60 points. UCLA is coming off an impressive road win @ Arizona topping the Cats by 13 points. They also beat Colorado in late January meaning they’ve topped the 2 highest rated teams in the Pac 12 over the last 2 weeks. On Thursday they face a Washington State team that has been terrible on the road and is off an emotional win over their in-state rivals Washington. That game was at home where the Cougs have been solid, however on the road they are 1-5 on the season with their only win coming @ Idaho who currently is ranked below 300. Their 4 Pac 12 road losses have come by margins of 26, 22, 12, and 7 points with their closest road loss coming vs Cal who is the worst team in the conference. They are averaging just 64 PPG on 39% shooting in their 6 road games. UCLA should have a little extra motivation as well after blowing a 9 point halftime lead @ Wazzou losing in OT. That was also in the midst of the stretch where the Bruins were playing their worst basketball of the season. Washington State may also be without forward Aljaz Kunc (questionable with an injury) who has started 18 games this year and scored 12 points and had 4 rebounds in their first meeting with UCLA. The host has covered 10 of the last 13 in this series and we like UCLA to win this one by double digits. |
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02-13-20 | Clippers v. Celtics UNDER 227 | Top | 133-141 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
ASA 10* play UNDER 227 LA Clippers @ Boston Celtics 8PM ET At the very root of the numbers today are two season averages that don’t add up to this Total set by Vegas on this game. The Clippers and opponents have averaged 225PPG this season while the Celtics and their foes have averaged 218PPG. The Clippers are 6th in pace of play at home but do play slower when on the road. The Celtics are 19th in the league in pace of play and prefer a slower tempo when at home. What we can count on for sure here is defensive intensity from both teams as the Celtics rank 3rd in defensive efficiency, the Clippers rank 6th and both allow less than 110PPG. Consider this, the Celtics just played the 2nd fastest pace and 2nd highest scoring team in the league in Houston and the O/U was only 5-points higher than this number and the teams combined for 221 total points. The Clippers just faced the 76ers who are similar to the Celtics in style of play and that game finished with 213 total points. When these same two teams met earlier this season the Total set on the game was 217 and they combined for just 211 in OT. We don’t see this game topping 220 total points. Bet UNDER! |
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02-13-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Texas State -3 | Top | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Thursday at 8 PM ET #644 ASA PLAY ON Texas State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Thursday at 8 PM ET We had Texas State as the favorite in the Sun Belt entering the season with many key players back from a team that was 24-10 last season. After a rough 0-3 start to the season, the Bobcats are now in a groove winning 8 of their last 11. Over the weekend they lost a tough game at a surging App State team but we can put an asterisk by that one. That’s because Texas State played that game without leading scoring Nijal Pearson (20 PPG) who is already the school’s all time leading scorer. After beating Coastal Carolina 100-63 (yes that score is correct) on the road last Thursday, Pearson had to leave the team for their game @ App State due to the birth of his daughter. He is back and ready to go tonight. Even with Pearson gone, the Bobcats still nearly knocked off one of the hottest teams in the Sun Belt on the road. Texas State led by 18 in the first half and App State took their first 2nd half lead with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the 60-57 Bobcat loss. Tonight they face first place Arkansas Little Rock. The Trojans are 12-2 in the Sun Belt, however they’ve played the easiest schedule in the conference thus far and there is a reason they are an underdog here. In fact, despite their league records (8-6 for Texas State / 12-2 for UALR) we have Texas State rated as the best team in the conference (so does Ken Pomeroy). The Bobcats are #1 in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency and they turn the ball over less than any other team. They also create the most turnovers in the conference (22% defensive turnover rate) and that’s not a good thing for a UALR team that coughs the ball up 22% of the time which is 11th in the Sun Belt. The Trojans have played only ONE road game since January 18th (4 home games during that stretch) and that was a 2 point win @ South Alabama, the 7th rated team in the conference. These two met back in early January and the line was pick-em @ UALR. Now Texas State is laying only 3 to 3.5 points at home. In that game the Bobcats led by 15 in the first half and led for much of the 2nd half but came up short losing 72-68.   Little Rock shot 53% in that game (Texas State shot 40%) and made 4 more FT’s yet the game still went down to the wire. Now we get who we feel is the best team in the conference, in a revenge spot, at home with a low number, and playing their best basketball of the season. We like Texas State to roll in this game. |
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02-12-20 | Xavier +6 v. Butler | Top | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Xavier +6 over Butler, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET These 2 are trending in opposite directions. After starting the Big East season with a 3-0 record, the Butler Bulldogs have since lost 5 of their last 8 games with their wins coming by just 3, 4, and 5 points. Four of their five least efficient performances this season have come since January 18th including two this month. Xavier comes into this game having won 4 of their last 6 games with their losses coming to Marquette by 2 in OT and @ Creighton. That 6 game run includes two road wins @ Seton Hall by 12 (#1 team in the Big East) and @ DePaul by 8. Their defense has been lock down as of late holding their last 5 opponents to 38% shooting overall and just 28% from deep. They have held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 62 points or less. Butler’s defense is headed south. For the season they look great ranking 29th nationally allowing just 0.93 PPP. However, a closer look reveals in Big East play they have allowed 1.05 PPP which puts them in 9th place in that category in the 10 team conference. For comparison’s sake Xavier ranks 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency and 4th in Big East play. The Bulldogs have an impressive 18-6 overall record (5 of those losses have come in the last 8 games as we mentioned) but for the season they are only winning by an average of 7 PPG. In conference play the are actually scoring just 68 PPG while allowing 70 PPG for a -2 per game point differential. This has been a closely contested series with the last 7 meetings resulting in margins of 5, 1, 5, 7, 5, 9, and 5 points. Butler is 0-4-1 ATS their last 5 as a favorite and we think Xavier has a solid shot at the outright win. Take the points. |
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02-11-20 | Celtics v. Rockets -1.5 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
ASA play on: Houston Rockets -1.5 over Boston Celtics, 9:30PM ET You couldn’t really ask for a better spot to play on Houston and fade Boston. The Rockets are off a loss (two in fact) and have historically done well when coming off a beat. Since 2016 there isn’t a better team in the NBA than Houston when coming off a loss as they are 71-34 SU or 68% winners. Boston on the other hand is coming off a solid road win in Oklahoma City. The Celtics are 4-1 SU their last five road contests but two of those wins were against 15-40 Atlanta and 23-31 Orlando. The Celtics have some great road statistics including an average margin of victory of +4.2PPG but if you dig deeper you find they are just 1-5 SU on the road against the top 5 teams in the West and East. The Rockets are 18-8 SU at home with the 8th best MOV at +7.6PPG. This is a great spot to play on the Rockets as a very small home favorite. Lay it! |
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02-11-20 | Notre Dame v. Virginia -4.5 | Top | 49-50 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Virginia -4.5 over Notre Dame, Tuesday at 9 PM ET UVA has had their ups and downs this season after winning the National Championship last year. Tony Bennett is a fantastic coach and we knew the Cavs would start playing well at some point and then we could take advantage of them being undervalued due to their full season results. We’ve reached that point tonight. UVA has won 3 of their last 4 and they are playing their best basketball of the season. In that 4 game stretch they beat FSU (3rd ranked team in the ACC) here by 5 and just lost a tight game @ Louisville (2nd ranked team in the ACC) over the weekend despite having a lead with 3:00 minutes remaining. The Cards made 11 more FT’s in that 7 point win and scored a ridiculous 1.36 points per possession on a defense that ranks 3rd nationally in that category allowing 0.866 PPP. It was by far Virginia’s worst defensive performance of the season and the 80 points allowed was a full 10 points more than their previous high. Even with that they had a shot to win. That’s because they scored 1.24 points per possession vs a top notch Louisville defense. It was the Cavaliers top offensive performance of the season and we think they take the momentum and play very well at home offensively tonight. Especially vs a Notre Dame defense that ranks 14th in the ACC in defensive efficiency (league games). On the other end of the court, we look for Bennett to have his team playing outstanding defense tonight after their poor performance over the weekend. The Irish have won 4 straight, however 3 came at home and all 4 were against lower tier ACC teams – all power rated 7th or lower in the league. Notre Dame is also coming off a big road win over Clemson (12th rated team in the ACC) which was on Sunday giving the Irish very little time to prepare for this one. With Virginia emerging and this line set much lower than past meetings here (UVA was -16.5 last year) we like the Cavs to win and cover. |
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02-10-20 | Spurs +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 120-127 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs +7.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET The money and tickets are flowing in on the Nuggets yet the line on this game has dropped a full point at some Sports Books. We will go contrarian here and bet the Underdog Spurs plus the points. San Antonio has lost 4 straight to kick off their annual Rodeo road trip but now they get a chance to face the team that knocked them out of the playoffs a season ago. San Antonio was recently a 9-point dog in L.A. against the Clippers so you can see for yourself this line is higher than it should be. The last time the Nuggets were favored by 7 to 7.5-points at home was against the Hawks and Kings, who are worse than the Spurs in overall efficiency ratings. Yes, we know the Nuggets are playing well right now, but they have also faced a very tough 10-game stretch that has featured some of the leagues best or hottest teams. We predict a letdown here against the team they eliminated a year ago and who aren’t the same Spurs team as they’ve been in the past. Denver wins at home by an average of +5.9PPG, while the Spurs road differential is minus -4PPG so both of those numbers get us a cover with the underdog in this contes. When catching +7.5 or more points this season the Spurs are 5-1 ATS, while Denver is just 6-8-2 ATS when laying -7.5 or more points. The Spurs are 17-7 ATS the last 24 in Denver. Grab the points! |
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02-10-20 | Florida State +8 v. Duke | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Florida State +8 over Duke, Monday at 7 PM ET We’re getting 8 points here with a team we really feel has a solid chance to win this game outright. Both teams come into this game with a 20-3 record along with 10-2 marks in ACC play. FSU has won 13 of their last 14 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Virginia by 5. The Seminoles have lost just 11 games in total since the beginning of last year and 8 of those have come by 10 points or less. They already have a road win vs a top 10 team this year beating Louisville by 13 and tonight sets up as another potential upset, if you want to call it that. Duke is off their massive rivalry game on Saturday @ UNC. The Devils won by 2 in OT but it was a game the NEVER LED once in regulation and trailed by 13 with 4:00 remaining. They put all of their physical and mental energy into that comeback and OT win and now 48 hours later must face a team that is much better than UNC this season. Meanwhile FSU, perhaps the deepest team in the country, is off an 18 point win over Miami on Saturday and they played 10 guys 10+ minutes so they should be well rested and focused on this one tonight. The Blue Devils have been far from invincible at home this year with 2 losses already to Stephen F Austin and Louisville. Their conference home games besides Louisville have come against BC, Wake, Miami, and Pitt so this will be just their 2nd home game vs anyone rated in the top 8 in the ACC and they lost the other one that fell into that category. We like this match up for the FSU defense. They are tough inside limiting ACC opponents to just 44% of their points from inside the arc (least in the league). That plays well against a Duke team that simply doesn’t take many 3’s compared to other teams (13th in the ACC with 26% of their points from deep). FSU also blocks more shots than any team in the ACC. Duke could struggle offensively tonight and laying 8 points is not ideal in that spot. This is a huge game for a rested and talented FSU team. While it’s also a big game for Duke, we have a feeling they come in a bit flat and wear down in the 2nd half after Saturday’s huge come from behind win. Take the points as this one goes to the wire. |
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02-09-20 | George Mason v. Massachusetts -1 | Top | 67-69 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UMass -1 over George Mason, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET These two met in January and UMass blew a 9 point second half lead with George Mason coming back for the 73-63 win. The shooting stats in that game were pretty even across the board. The difference in the game was the FT line where UMass had 11 points and Mason had 24. While George Mason has the better overall record with 4 more wins these two have basically the same record in A10 play (UMass 3-7 / George Mason 2-7). The Patriots played one of the easiest non-conference schedules on the nation (337th) and racked up a few more wins early making them look like the much better team. That is not the case. After starting the season 11-1 vs light competition, George Mason has now lost 8 of their last 10 games and they are 1-5 SU in true road games averaging 62 PPG on just 38% from the field. UMass is coming off back to back road losses vs two of the top teams in the A10 (Davidson & Rhode Island). They played well in their most recent outing @ URI (10-2 and in 2nd place in the A10) giving the Rams a run for their money in the 6 point loss. Now they are back at home where they are 3-1 in league play. They average 78 PPG and shoot 48% at home. They are simply happy to be playing a home game as 6 of their 10 conference games have come on the road. UMass is 6-1 ATS their last 7 as a home favorite and they get the win today.   |
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02-08-20 | Oral Roberts v. North Dakota State -5.5 | Top | 76-83 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Dakota State -5.5 over Oral Roberts, Saturday at 2 PM ET Two teams headed in opposite directions here. North Dakota State has won 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss coming @ South Dakota State (by 5 points) who is currently tied with this NDSU team for 1st place in the Summit. The Bison’s offense has been rolling scoring at least 70 points in all but one conference game. They have scored at least 1.11 points per possession in 8 of their 10 Summit League games. They are coming off a perfect 3-0 road trip and NDSU is 5-0 SU at home in conference play winning by an average score of 79-66. Oral Roberts, on the other hand, is on the decline. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games with their only win during that run coming at home vs Denver, the lowest rated team in the Summit. Even in that game, ORU trailed Denver (5-19 overall record / 1-9 in conference) in the 2nd half in a game that was much closer than the 9 point margin. They lost @ North Dakota on Thursday night and now 2 days later playing @ NDSU. These two met about a month ago and Oral Roberts gave North Dakota State 79-73, one of their only two conference losses. NDSU played that game without starter Jared Samuelson. The Golden Eagles are just 3-10 SU on the road this year with their only wins coming vs teams currently ranked 353rd, 331st, and 276th in the Ken Pom power ratings. ORU’s defense has been atrocious on the road allowing 76 PPG. Overall they rank 9th in the league (last) in defensive eFG%, 2 point %, and 3 point %. North Dakota State has a huge edge on the defensive end rank 1st in the conference in efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, 2nd in 3 point % defense, and 1st in 2 point % defense. ORU has only won once @ North Dakota State since 2006 losing 8 of the last 9. The Bison get the win and cover at home on Saturday. |
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02-07-20 | Raptors v. Pacers +1 | Top | 115-106 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
ASA play on: Indiana Pacers +1 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET The Raptors have won 12 straight games and have a better record at this point than they did a year ago at this time with Kawhi on the roster. The current streak though is a bit of fool’s gold as 9 of those twelve wins came against losing teams with a combined record of 149-315. One of the Raptors wins over a team with a winning record just came the other night against this same Pacers team. Indiana shot well at 52% for the game but were outscored by 8 from the free throw line in the 1-point loss. The Pacers are still working Victor Oladipo back into the rotation and its clearly effected chemistry with their three-game losing streak, but they did play well in the loss at Toronto. The recent success of the Raptors has impacted this line in a negative way as they were just favored by -5.5-points at home and are still laying 1-point here? The Raps were also just favored by 4-points at Detroit recently who are not in the same discussion as this Pacers team. In recent home games the Pacers were favored against Miami and Philadelphia who are not much different than this Toronto team. Indiana is 18-7 SU at home this year with the 12th best average point differential at +4.4PPG. The home team has won 6 straight in this series and 9 of the last ten. Bet Indiana with revenge tonight. |
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02-07-20 | Maryland v. Illinois -2.5 | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Illinois -2.5 over Maryland, Friday at 8 PM ET These two teams are tied for 1st place in the Big Ten so the winner walks away by themselves at the top of the conference. As you’ve probably noticed, we often like to zero in on good teams playing at home off a loss. There is much more to it than just randomly taking those teams, but it’s often a starting point. We have that in this game as the Illini lost by 7 points at Iowa after winning 7 straight prior to that. Their 3 losses in conference play came @ Iowa, @ Michigan State, and @ Maryland. The previous match up between these 2 teams was an interesting one. Illinois led on the road by 14 at half and lost 59-58. To say the Illini led most of the game would be an understatement. In fact, Maryland led 3-2 just over a minute into the game and after that they never led again until 59-58 with 2 seconds remaining in the game.  Quite obviously the Illini have been waiting for this rematch. Maryland steps into this one on a 5 game winning streak. Three of those wins came at home where they are undefeated this season. Their two road wins during their streak were @ Northwestern (one of the two worst teams in the league) and by 1 point @ Indiana with the Hoosiers blowing a 6 point lead in the final minute of the game. Prior to that, the Terps were 0-4 SU in true road games. On the road this season they are averaging only 62 PPG and making just 36% of their shots. Illinois is undefeated at home in conference play and their defense, which ranks 3rd in the Big 10 in efficiency, is allowing only 54 PPG in those 5 home conference games. Illinois is 4-0 ATS their last 4 coming off a SU loss and we like them to win this game at home on Friday. |
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02-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -7.5 | Top | 121-111 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Lakers -7.5 over Houston Rockets, 10:30PM ET We waited patiently to post this bet today with fear the Lakers would move Kyle Kuzma and disrupt the Lakers chemistry. They didn’t and this roster will rally tonight knowing these are the guys they move forward with. Houston was active with a trade for a wing in Robert Covington, while dealing center Capela, which means they are all-in on small ball moving forward. In our opinion, Houston’s math-metrics has failed, and this team is not capable of coming out of the West. These same two teams squared off in Houston less than a month ago with the 3-point underdog Lakers winning by 9-points. L.A. shot 48% compared to Houston’s 44% and outrebound the Rockets by 4. The edge on the glass tonight will be magnified for the Lakers now that Capela is gone so who on the Rockets roster can match up with Anthony Davis? In the last meeting Capela grabbed 12 rebounds for Houston which will be sorely missed. Speaking of AD, he didn’t play in the first meeting against the Rockets and the Lakers still won by 9 on the road. Houston has a road differential of +0.6PPG which is 10th in the NBA but Los Angeles is 17-6 SU at home with an average MOV of 10PPG. These two Western Conference rivals are very similar when it comes to offensive efficiency ratings, but the Lakers hold a decisive advantage with the 4th ranked defensive efficiency unit compared to Houston’s 15th. This is one of those games the Lakers will be focused and play at a very high level. Lay the points! |
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02-06-20 | Texas-Arlington v. Appalachian State | Top | 50-57 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Appalachian State pick-em over UT Arlington, Thurs at 7 PM ET App State’s current 6-6 record in Sun Belt play is a bit misleading. They played 3 of those games (25%) without 2 of their top players. 6’9 forward Isaac Johnson (11 PPG and 7 RPG) missed games on January 2nd, 9th, and 11th (all losses). Also starting PG O’Showen Williams (11 PPG, 4 RPG, and 2 APG) missed games on January 9th and 11th (both losses as we mentioned). One of the games where both missed was their first meeting vs this UT Arlington team.  UTA (-5.5) won that game by 10 points but it was closer than that most of the way with Appalachian State down by 3 with just a few minutes remaining. That was despite 2 of their top players missing the game as we mentioned. Now they are back and the Mountaineers are playing very well. They have won 3 of their last 5 games and their only 2 losses during that stretch were both vs Little Rock who is in 1st place at 11-2 a full 2 games ahead of the field. UTA has won 4 of their last 5 however they’ve played an extremely easy schedule over the last few weeks. Four of their last five games have come against UL Monroe (twice) and UL Lafayette (twice), 2 of the 3 worst teams in the Sun Belt. Those 2 teams have combined for just a 6-18 conference record and UTA lost at home to one of them (UL Lafayette) one week ago.  Half of their conference wins have come against teams that are currently in 9th and 10th place in the league and another vs this App State team that wasn’t close to full strength as we mentioned. We love the way the Mountaineer offense is playing right now as they’ve tallied 1.34, 1.15, 1.13, and 1.14 points per possession in 4 of their last 5 games. Over those 5 games they are hitting 47% of their shots overall and 40% of their 3 pointers. Based on the pointspread when they played @ UTA (App State was +5.5) this line should be at least -2 to -2.5 in favor of the Mountaineers. Actually with their full line up back in place, it should adjust higher than that but with Arlington’s current run (vs poor teams for the most part) this sits around a pick-em. We’ll take App State to win this one. |
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02-05-20 | Wisconsin v. Minnesota -3 | Top | 52-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -3 over Wisconsin, Wed at 9 PM ET We like the way this home game sets up for Minnesota. The Gophs are off back to back losses vs Michigan State & Illinois and now with an 11-10 overall record (5-6 in the Big 10) they are in must win mode, especially at home, down the stretch. They have won all but one of their Big 10 home games (lost vs MSU) and they catch Wisconsin in a tough spot. The Badgers played a huge home game over the weekend vs Michigan State and they had a tough week leading into that game with starter Kobe King transferring and starter Brad Davison missing the game due to a suspension. Wisconsin rallied in the midst of the controversies surrounding the team and picked up a 64-63 home win. Now coming down off that emotional spot and going on the road will be tough. They are just 2-4 on the road in conference play and come into this one having last 3 straight road games. They are averaging just 58 PPG on the road in Big 10 play and they rely very heavily on the 3-point shot yet only make 29% of their attempts from beyond the arc on the road. Minnesota has averaged 76 PPG at home this year and they’ve topped 70 points in all but 2 of their 11 home games. While the Badgers were battling MSU in their must win home game on Sunday, the Gophers have had a full 7 days off to get ready for this big game. We like Minnesota to win and cover this game at home. |
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02-04-20 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 226 | Top | 99-127 | Push | 0 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: UNDER 226 Portland Trailblazers @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET We are value players and have made a living betting bad numbers which is the case tonight with this Over/Under. The line opened 5-full points less than it is right now and the volume of money being wagered on the game should not have dictated this big of a move. These same two teams have met twice already this season and Vegas had posted O/U’s of 216 and 218 on their games. I’ll trust the experts and bet Under in this game. Yes, we know Damian Lillard is on a ‘heater’ averaging nearly 49PPG his last six contests, but he can’t sustain that type of production and the Nuggets will be focused on stopping him tonight. Denver has the 11th best defensive efficiency numbers at home this season allowing just 1.067 points per possession. The Nuggets have allowed 104 or less points in 3 of their last five home games and on the season the Nuggets home games have averaged 212 total points per game. Denver is the 29th slowest paced team in the NBA overall and at home and they’ll dictate the tempo in this big Western Conference showdown. Portland games at home this season have averaged 232 total points but on the road, they’ve averaged 224.5PPG. The Blazers are a below average shooting team on the road but slightly better than average in opponents FG% when away from home. In the last five meetings between these two teams they’ve totaled: 213, 208, 196, 227 and 222 total points. Bet contrarian here and bet UNDER! |
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02-04-20 | Penn State v. Michigan State -8 | Top | 75-70 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan State -8 over Penn State, Tuesday at 8 PM ET MSU is coming off a loss vs an emotional Wisconsin team on Saturday and they’ve bounced back after setbacks as well as anyone. After each of their first 5 losses they’ve responded with a win the following game by margins of 53, 18, 12, 12, and 8 points. After Saturday’s loss @ Wisconsin they sit at 8-3 in the Big 10 tied for first place with Illinois and just a half game ahead of Maryland. All 3 of Sparty’s conference losses have come on the road. At home they have a perfect 6-0 mark in league play winning by an average margin of 18 points with all 6 wins coming by at least 12 points. MSU played a terrible first half in Madison on Saturday and head coach Tom Izzo let them have it at halftime. They responded by outscoring the Badgers by 15 in the 2nd half but still a 1-point loss. We expect that momentum to continue at home tonight where they take on a PSU team that we feel might a bit overvalued right now coming in off 4 straight wins. It will be the Nittany Lions 2nd straight road game after they topped the worst team in the Big 10, Nebraska on the road on Saturday. PSU is 16-5 on the season but just 2-3 on the road with losses coming @ Ohio State by 32, @ Rutgers by 11, and @ Minnesota by 7. Penn State likes to play fast which plays right into the hands for MSU’s strength and that is their transition game. The conference teams that have topped Michigan State this year (Wisconsin, Purdue, and Indiana) have been able to slow them down into a grinder type game. That doesn’t look like it will happen here as the pace should be fast for an MSU team that already averages 85 PPG at home. Sparty is already 9-2 ATS this year as a home favorite and off their loss we expect them to blast PSU. The Spartans have won 9 of the last 10 meetings and they were favored by very close to this number (-7) @ Penn State last year. The last 3 times they’ve played host to the Nits they were favored by 17.5, 14, and 13.5 points. This is a small number to lay in this situation. MSU by double digits. |
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02-03-20 | Mavs v. Pacers -4.5 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -4.5 over Dallas Mavericks,  7PM ET This is a great spot for a bet on the Pacers who are off a home loss and face the Mavs off a blowout home win. Indiana suffered a setback against the Knicks their last time out as they adjust with the return of former All-Star Victor Oladipo back into the rotation. Oladipo was just 2 of 14 from the field and struggled in 22 minutes of play. The Pacers as a whole shot just 42% against the Knicks which was uncharacteristic of them as they are the 3rd best shooting team in the NBA at 47.6%. The Mavs come into this contest off a 23-point win over the lowly Hawks and will now be playing their 3rd game without All-Star Luka Doncic. Dallas has the best overall offensive efficiency rating in the NBA but that’s with Doncic in the lineup who averages a hair under 29PPG. The Mavs will have a much tougher time scoring here against a Pacers defense that is 8th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.080 points per possession. The Pacers have an average margin of victory at home this season at +5PPG, are 12-6 SU when coming off a loss and have not lost back to back games at home this year. The home teams has covered 7 of the last nine in this series and that trend continues in this one. We are betting Indiana minus the points at home. |
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02-02-20 | Pelicans v. Rockets -4.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show |
ASA play on Houston Rockets -4.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 2PM ET We like the movement and public backing of the Pelicans here with Zion Williamson and will bet opposite with Houston. The value in the number is evident when you compare today’s number with recent Rocket home games. At home Houston was favored by 8 over Dallas, -10.5 versus Denver, -7.5 against Oklahoma City and minus -3.5-points against the Lakers. You can see for yourself the value in today’s line. Has the Pelicans played well of late with the addition of Zion? Yes, of course but this is a very manageable number for the home team Rockets to get. Houston wins at home this season by an average of +7.6PPG, have the 7th best offensive efficiency numbers at home and the 13th best DEFF. New Orleans has the 24th worst average road differential in the NBA at minus -5PPG and the 20th worst DEFF when playing away from home. The Pels have two straight road wins but they came against the Cavs, improving Grizzlies and Pistons but their most recent road game against a quality team like Houston was a blowout loss to the Celtics. Houston should play with a little more energy today considering the Pelicans beat them by 15 just a month ago. Lay the points with the Rockets in this one. |
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02-01-20 | St. Mary's v. BYU -6 | Top | 79-81 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON BYU -6 over St Marys, Saturday at 10 PM ET This is a rematch from a few weeks ago when BYU traveled to St Marys and lost 87-84 in OT as a +5.5 point underdog. The stats in that game were almost dead even across the board with St Marys having a slight edge from 3 point land (made 9 to BYU’s 6) and from the FT line (made 20 to BYU’s 14). BYU played them toe to toe on their home court and did so without their best player and leading scorer Yoeli Childs who averages 21 PPG and 10 RPG. Childs has since returned and this will be his 4th game back after missing 4 games from Jan 9th thru Jan 18th. The Cougars now get a chance at redemption at home where they are nearly unbeatable. This year they are 10-1 here at the Marriott Center with their only loss coming by 5 points to San Diego State who is currently the only remaining unbeaten team in the nation at 22-0 and they played that game without Childs as well. The Cougs led that game by 9 in the 2nd half and still led by 4 with 2:00 minutes remaining. On top of that, St Mary’s starting guard Tanner Krebs, who had 10 points and 8 rebounds vs BYU, might not be available here after injuring his ankle in a win over Portland on Thursday night. BYU is better than their 16-7 record, first of all because they played a very tough non-conference schedule (rated 21st toughest non-conference slate that included 7 top 100 teams) and they have played 13 games without Childs (he was suspended for the first 9). With him in the line up they are 8-2 with an OT loss @ Utah and a 1-point loss @ San Francisco. We mentioned their record at home this year but this has always been one of the toughest places to play in the nation with BYU sporting a 68-12 SU record their last 80 at home. St Marys has played 5 true road games this year and while they’ve won 4 of those, BYU will be by far their highest rated opponent on the road thus far. In fact, 4 of their 5 road opponents are currently ranked outside the top 100 (BYU ranked 18th at this time). BYU is one of the top shooting teams in the nation ranking 2nd in eFG% and 1st nationally in 3-point %. Those fantastic numbers only improve when they are at home where they average 84 PPG on 51% shooting and 43% from deep. They have a tendency to blast teams at home with 11 of their last 13 wins here coming by double digits. St Marys is a solid team but they are in the wrong spot at the wrong time with BYU looking for revenge. Cougars cover easily here. |
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01-31-20 | Thunder v. Suns OVER 222 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
ASA 10* NBA play on: Over 222.5 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET A few days ago, we successfully played Under in the Thunder versus Kings game but will flip here and bet Over when the Thunder take on the Suns. OKC is scoring more points on the road right now than they do at home with scoring outputs of 120, 113, 120, 112 and 117 in their last five away from home. OKC has been a slower paced team on the season (22nd) but have played faster in their last five games at 99 possessions per game which is 14th fastest in the NBA. The Phoenix Suns are already top 10 in pace of play at 101.9 possessions per game so they’ll push tempo in this one and look to get out and run. The Thunder are slightly better than average in points per possession while the Suns are middle of the pack. Both are near average in terms of defensive efficiency also. The average NBA total points scored is 221 and the current statistics or how these teams are playing right now suggest 227 total points in this contest. OKC is shooting over 51% their last five games while the Suns have allowed opponents to hit o over 48% of their FG attempts. These same two teams met in mid-December and the posted number was 224.5 and they combined for 234 total points. We like the value and will play OVER here. |
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01-31-20 | Oakland v. Detroit -2 | Top | 77-64 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Detroit -2 over Oakland, Friday at 7 PM ET We really like the way this Detroit team is playing right now as they are gelling under head coach Mike Davis (former Indiana head coach). They are just 6-16 on the season but they have won 3 of their last 4 with their only loss coming @ UWGB in overtime. Actually they’ve been playing well going back to the beginning of January (4-4 record this month) including a home win over Northern Kentucky, the 2nd best team in the Horizon, and a 1 point loss vs Wright State, the best team in the Horizon. This Oakland team is headed in the opposite direction. They are 7-15 on the season but since the turn of the new year they are 1-7 with their only win coming vs Cleveland State who ranks 308th nationally and 2nd to last in the Horizon. They just lost at home last weekend to IUPUI, the worst team in the Horizon. Detroit has played the toughest conference schedule to date and they still have a decent 4-5 record in league play. Oakland has played the 6th toughest schedule and they are 2-7 in the conference. Detroit has a significant edge in both offensive and defensive efficiency in conference play despite playing the tougher slate. These two met back in December when Detroit was still finding their way and Oakland took home a 78-69 win. The Titans outrebounded Oakland, one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, by 10 that day but simply couldn’t hit shots making only 27% of their 66 attempts while Oakland hit 57%. Detroit has lost 5 straight vs Oakland including a down to the wire game here last season. With this line sitting at just -2, all we need is for Detroit to win this game and home and we really like them to do just that. |
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01-30-20 | Iowa v. Maryland -5.5 | Top | 72-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Maryland -5.5 over Iowa, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET Both of these teams are 6-3 in the Big 10 but all records are not created equal. Iowa has played the easiest conference schedule thus far and they are currently on a 5 game winning streak. Four of those five games have come at home and their lone road game during that stretch was @ Northwestern. They just faced rival Wisconsin at home on Monday so this is a fairly quick turnaround for them playing on the road tonight. The Hawkeyes trailed by 12 with just 7:00 minutes remaining in that home game on Monday and rallied for a 6 point win over the short-handed Badgers. The Hawkeyes have played only 1 tough road game in conference play and that was back in early December @ Michigan which turned into a 12 point loss. Their other true road games came @ Nebraska (a loss to the worst team in the conference) and @ Northwestern as we mentioned. They did play Penn State (Iowa lost) in Philadelphia which while closer to PSU was not a true home game for the Nittany Lions. Now they face a Maryland team that is angry and peaking. The Terps have won 5 of their last 7 and 3 straight including a win @ Indiana over the weekend. Their losses during that stretch included a 1-point loss @ Wisconsin in a game they led by 1 and had the ball with 12 seconds remaining, and a blowout loss @ Iowa. Their game in Iowa city was by far their worst performance of the season. The Terps lost that game 67-49 and shot only 33% from the field, 18% from 3 point land, and made only 11 of their 20 FT attempts. And that was against an Iowa defense that ranks 78th nationally in defensive efficiency (11th in the Big 10) so just a poor offensive showing for the Terrapins. Maryalnd was actually favored by 1.5 points in that game and now only laying 5.5 at home just a few weeks later. Maryland’s other 3 losses this season (@ PSU, @ Wisc, and @Seton Hall) were all down to the wire contests. They’ve been waiting for this rematch with Iowa and we expect them to play very well tonight. They are a perfect 11-0 at home winning all but one of those games by at least 7 points. Nine of those eleven home wins have come by double digits and their average home winning margin this year is 17 points. Maryland beat Iowa here 91-73 last year and we see a potential similar outcome tonight. Iowa is ripe for a beatdown and we think it comes tonight. Lay it with Maryland.  |
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01-30-20 | 76ers v. Hawks +7 | Top | 117-127 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks +7 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30PM ET Plug your nose with this bet but it’s the logical play to make given the circumstances. Philly is in a scheduling nightmare as they recently played two big games against the Raptors and Lakers prior to beating the Warriors at home. On the horizon for the Sixers are THREE HUGE road contests at Boston, Miami and Milwaukee so looking past the Hawks is to be expected here. The Hawks have recently been blown out on the road in Toronto and Oklahoma City but were competitive in a home loss to the Raptors by 5 and beat the Clippers and Wizards. Atlanta has a losing home record of 7-16 but their average loss margin is -4.1PPG which clearly gets the cover here. Philadelphia has not been good on the road this season with a 9-15 SU mark and a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG. Earlier this season the Hawks lost by just 2-points at home to the 76ers who have just one spread win their last 9 road contests. Atlanta is shooting over 46% their last five games and they’ll make enough tonight at home to get the money in this one. |
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01-29-20 | Thunder v. Kings UNDER 221 | Top | 120-100 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: UNDER 221 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET There is tremendous value with this Under tonight for a few different reasons. First off, these same two teams met in early December and the posted Total on that game was 207.5 which is obviously much lower than tonight’s number. In that game, OKC and SAC combined for just 187 total points. Vegas has posted a Total north of 220 this game which right around the league average for the Total points scored in an NBA game. The math for these two teams doesn’t add up to 220 either. Both prefer to play slower as the Thunder are 22nd in the league in pace of play, while the Kings are 27th. Both are average in terms of offensive efficiency with OKC having the 15th overall rankings while the Kings are 21st. Now we factor in the defensive efficiency numbers and OKC is 14th and the Kings 19th. To sum it up these are two average offenses and defenses yet play at a very slow pace, so we don’t expect an ‘average’ NBA game with 220 total points. On the season the Thunder games have average 218 total points, the Kings are at 217PPG. Sacramento’s scoring numbers are way up their last five games but two of those have been over-time affairs. The Thunder have had a few higher scoring games recently, but they also played three of the seven fastest paced teams in the league. This game just doesn’t add up to 220+ so we’re betting UNDER! |
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01-29-20 | South Dakota State v. Oral Roberts -4 | Top | 76-61 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oral Roberts -4 over South Dakota State, Wed at 8 PM ET Despite their 4-3 Summit League record, we have Oral Roberts power rated as the best team in the league. Other are in agreement including Ken Pom who also has them #1 in the conference. They’re 11-9 overall record is misleading because they played a brutal non-conference schedule ranked as one of the 15 toughest in the nation. Some of their non-conference opponents included Iowa, Wichita State, Oklahoma State, Creighton, and BYU all on the road! Despite losing those games, they were competitive in all of them and covered 4 of those 5. On top of that, they’ve played the toughest Summit League schedule to date as well with 5 of their first 7 conference games coming on the road. At home they’ve been great with an 8-0 SU record but they haven’t played a home game since January 11th, a 15-point win over North Dakota. Dating back to last season, ORU has covered 11 of their last 12 home games. This year they are averaging 85 PPG while allowing only 64 PPG. We also like the fact they are coming off a road loss @ red hot South Dakota over the weekend. South Dakota State currently sits in 1st place in the Summit with a 6-2 record making this pretty much a must win for ORU if they want to keep pace with the Jackrabbits. SDSU is also off a huge home game vs North Dakota State which was a battle for 1st place and the Jackrabbits win the game by 5 points. On the road they haven’t been good with a 3-8 SU record. Their 2 road wins in conference play came @ Denver and @ IPFW, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the league. Their other 2 Summit road games were losses @ South Dakota (by 15) and @ Omaha (by 3) two teams rated well below this Oral Roberts team. ORU has lost 6 in a row to SDSU to they while they don’t really need any extra motivation, they do have some tonight. So far this season, the Summit ranks as the toughest league to get a road win in conference play with only 23% of the visiting teams winning games (lowest rate in the NCAA). Now we get a very good team, at home in a must win spot, off a loss, vs a team that sits ahead of them in the standings but has been poor on the road. This is a great spot for Oral Roberts and we’ll jump on it. |
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01-28-20 | Suns +6.5 v. Mavs | Top | 133-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
ASA play on: Phoenix Suns +6.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET  This situation is ideal for a wager on the Suns who are off a loss and catch the Mavs off a win last night. So not only are the Mavericks playing the second night of a back to back, but they are also off a big win against OKC and they have a bigger game on deck against instate rival Houston. Phoenix is off a close road loss in Memphis but had won three straight road games prior to that against the Spurs, Celtics and Knicks. Dallas is just 6-7 ATS when laying 7 or more points at home this season so it’s not like they are a great heavy home favorite. Phoenix on the other hand has been a great underdog this year with a 7-2 spread record when catching 5 plus points. Dallas is 13-11 SU at home this season with an average differential of +6PPG (10th in the NBA). Phoenix is 10-11 SU away from home with the 12th best overall road differential of minus just 1.9PPG. The Mavs are 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS when playing without rest but the average margin of victory is less than 5PPG. Phoenix has covered 8 of the last ten in this series and 5 of six on this court. Phoenix hangs around the entire game and will have a chance to steal a win late. Grab the points! |
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01-28-20 | Purdue v. Rutgers -2.5 | Top | 63-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -2.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 8 PM ET The home/road dichotomy of these two teams is quite dramatic. Rutgers is a perfect 14-0 at home this year winning by an average score of 73-56. The Knights hit over 47% of their shots at the RAC while allowing opponents to make only 35%. Purdue is 1-5 on the road this year with their only win coming @ Ohio, the 9th rated team in the 12 team MAC. The Boilers are 0-4 on the road in Big 10 play and in those conference road games they have scored 37, 50, 56, and 62 (in regulation) points. They are shooting only 35% away from home and making less than 24% of their 3-pointers. Don’t expect Purdue to do much offensively tonight vs a Rutgers defense that ranks 4th nationally in defensive FG%, 12th in 3-point % allowed, and 9th in defensive efficiency. They have allowed less than 60 points in 10 of their 14 home games. Facing a Purdue offense that ranks dead last in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency AND eFG% (conference games only) plays perfectly into what Rutgers does best. We are also getting Rutgers off a sub par performance here over the weekend as they barely clipped Nebraska by 3 points. They led by 14 in the 2nd half of that game and nearly blew it. They should be focused here. Purdue is off a huge, must win home game beating Wisconsin 70-51 in a game where the Badgers looked flat and the Boilers outrebounded them 42 to 16. That won’t happen here as Rutgers is one of the top rebounding teams in the Big 10. The Knights also have some extra motivation here as they’ve NEVER beaten Purdue since joining the league back in 2015. They are 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 home games and Purdue is just 1-6-1 ATS their last 8 as an underdog. Rutgers is the better team this year and they get the home win and cover tonight. |
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01-27-20 | Wisconsin v. Iowa OVER 135 | Top | 62-68 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Over 135 Points - Wisconsin @ Iowa, Monday at 8:30 PM ET This total opened at 138 which is exactly where we had it according to our power ratings. It has dropped 3 full points to 135 and now the value is absolutely on the OVER in this game. The Badgers are coming off an offensive clunker scoring only 51 points on Friday @ Purdue. They averaged just 0.86 points per possession in that game facing a Purdue defense that ranks 11th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Boilers also love a slow paced game so there simply weren’t many possessions in that game. Wisconsin has struggled offensively in their 5 conference road games averaging just under 60 PPG. However they’ve played some of the top defenses in the nation in those 5 games facing the 9th, 11th, 18th, 19th, and 29th rated teams in defensive efficiency. Tonight they take on an Iowa team that ranks 85th in that category. The Hawkeyes are also the fastest paced team in the Big 10 and while we don’t expect a track meet as Wisconsin will slow the game down at times, we won’t have 2 teams that play at a snail’s pace. Iowa’s offense is best in the Big 10 and #3 nationally in efficiency averaging 1.18 PPP. They have scored at least 72 points in every Big 10 game but one. This is their 3rd consecutive home game and in their first 2 they put up 90 on a solid Michigan defense and 85 on a Rutgers defense that ranks 9th nationally in defensive efficiency. Wisconsin defense is solid but nothing like they were a few years ago when they were consistently the top defense in the Big 10. This year the Badgers rate 6th in the conference in defensive efficiency. As far as efficiency goes both offenses are better than the opposing defenses. Wisconsin’s 5th most efficient offense in conference play will be playing into an Iowa defense that ranks 9th in the league.  Iowa’s offense ranks 1st in efficiency in Big 10 play and they will be facing a Wisconsin defense that ranks 6th. We also have 2 of the best FT shooting teams in the conference with both hitting over 75% in league play so we’ll get some extra points from the charity stripe. The last 6 meetings @ Iowa between these two rivals have totaled 138, 152, 126, 137, 153, and 136 points. All but one of those would have gone OVER tonight’s number. Our numbers have Iowa in the low 70’s here and we think Wisconsin has a decent shot to get to 70 as well.    |
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01-27-20 | Magic v. Heat -6 | Top | 92-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
ASA play on: Miami Heat -6 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET We have not supported the Heat many times this season but will here. Miami has been nearly unbeatable at home this season with a 20-2 SU record and one of those losses came in their last home game. We love to back good teams off a loss and this situation couldn’t be any better than it is, especially with the Magic off a game yesterday. Both Miami and Orlando were just beaten by the Clippers, but the Heat are rested while the Magic played yesterday. Orlando is also playing their 3rd game in four days so fatigue will be a factor. Miami has the 5th best average margin of victory at home in the NBA at +10PPG, are the 3rd most efficient offense at home and 7th in defensive efficiency. Orlando is 8-15 SU away from home with a negative differential of -3.1PPG. The Magic have the 25th worst offensive efficiency numbers on the road but rank 7th in DEFF. In their last five games overall, the Heat are shooting over 47% from the field while the Magic are allowing foes to hit nearly that same percentage in their last five contests. Miami has taken care of the lesser teams at home this year with a 11-3 ATS record against sub .500 teams on their home floor. Miami will bounce back here with a double-digit home win. |
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01-26-20 | Clippers v. Magic UNDER 217.5 | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
ASA 10* Play on: UNDER 217 LA Clippers @ Orlando Magic, 6PM ET These same two teams met recently in Los Angeles and combined for exactly 217 total points, but we don’t feel today’s game gets to that number. In the most recent meeting, the Magic who are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA gave up 122 to the Clippers but they were also coming off a big game against the Lakers the night before. Orlando is 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.064 points per possession. The team right below the Magic in DEFF ratings is the LA Clippers who give up just 1.068PPP. LA plays a little faster in terms of tempo ranking 8th but the home team Magic are the 27th slowest paced team in the league at just 98.1 possessions per game. Orlando has really struggled scoring of late by failing to reach 100 points in 3 of their last five games and scoring 106 or less in 4 of five. The Magic are 29th in the NBA in scoring at just 103.8PPG and will have a tough time against this Clippers defense. With Los Angeles off a higher scoring game against the Heat we expect a low scoring contest today. BET UNDER! |
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01-26-20 | Quinnipiac v. Siena -4 | Top | 61-84 | Win | 100 | 2 h 44 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Siena -4 over Quinnipiac, Sunday at 2 PM ET Quinnipiac comes in with a 5-2 record in the MAAC however they’ve also played the easiest schedule in conference play to date.  They are 10-7 overall and their total strength of schedule ranks 350th nationally out of 353 teams. In conference play they’ve had 5 home games and just 2 road games and their road games were vs the worst team in the MAAC Marist (Quinnipiac won by 3) and at Manhattan the 7th rated team in the league (Quinnipiac lost by 12). Siena is 4-4 in league play however they have played half their games on the road. At home Siena is a perfect 8-0 SU on the season averaging 76 PPG. Quinnipiac averages just 66 PPG on the road and barely shoots 40%. Siena tweaked their starting line up on Friday at home in order to get their best offensive players all on the floor at the same time. The Saints picked up a 13 point win and have some positive momentum heading into today’s match up. Siena faces Saint Peter’s here a few weeks ago and they were laying 6.5 in that game and we have Quinnipiac rated dead even with Saint Peter’s. Plus Siena played that game without one of their top players Elijah Burns (Notre Dame transfer) who has scored in double digits 12 times this year and the still beat Saint Peters. Line value is with Siena here. Finally they have some extra motivation heading into this game as they lost as a favorite here to Quinnipiac last year in triple OT. Lay this small number with Siena on Sunday. |
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01-25-20 | Georgia State v. Georgia Southern -2 | Top | 82-77 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia Southern -2 over Georgia State, Saturday at 5 PM ET We faded this Georgia Southern team last Saturday @ South Alabama and picked up a 6 point win with the Jaguars. We felt that was a perfect spot to do so as GSU was off a road win @ Troy a few nights earlier and South Alabama was coming off a home loss to Georgia State. Now off a loss and back at home we really like Georgia Southern on Saturday. These two rivals are tied for 2nd place in the Sun Belt with 6-3 records 2 games behind Little Rock who is 8-2. Georgia State has overachieved this year in our opinion as they lost 5 of their top 7 players from last year. They’ve been really solid at home but on the road in conference play they have a record of just 2-3 including losses @ Troy and @ Arkansas State, the 10th and 9th rated teams in the league. Today they are facing a Georgia Southern team that is a perfect 8-0 at home this year and 27-6 their last 33 home games. One of those 6 losses was here last year vs Georgia State (who won the conference and went to the NCAA tourney) and that was on Senior Night and GSU’s home finale so the Eagles have been patiently waiting for this rematch. Unlike State who as we mentioned had a large turnover from last year, Georgia Southern brings back 6 players who played key roles in last year’s home loss so they will be ready here. Southern was favored by 5 in that home game last year vs a better Georgia State team. Prior to GSU’s home loss last year, the host had won 16 straight in this rivalry.  The Eagles should have a solid home court edge here as a sellout is expected today. Eeverything we like points to a Georgia Southern home win and cover.         |
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01-25-20 | Southern Illinois v. Illinois State -1.5 | Top | 58-55 | Loss | -117 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Illinois State -1.5 over Southern Illinois, Saturday at 3 PM ET Southern Illinois is a young team with 4 freshmen in their top 7 and those type of teams normally struggle on the road. That would be an understatement for the Salukis as they are now 0-7 SU on the road this season. Their 3 Missouri Valley road losses have all come by at least 12 points. We’re also catching this inexperienced team in a great spot to fade them coming off 2 straight home wins including their biggest win of the year on Wednesday night beating Northern Iowa by 2 points. It was a tough spot for the Panthers, the highest rated team in the MVC, as they were off a big road win @ Bradley with a 1st place face off vs Loyola on deck. UNI was homered a bit by the officials in that road game going to the line just 4 times compared to 23 for Southern Illinois yet the Panthers still had a shot missing a 3 pointer at the buzzer for the win. It’s going to be tough for this SIU team to turn around just a few days after that emotional win and play well on the road where they’ve struggled all year. ISU opened the MVC slate with a win over Northern Iowa and have since lost 6 straight. Four of those six games were on the road and they were underdogs in 5 of those games so not a big surprise they are in a losing streak. ISU is hungry for a win and they are finally favored in a game they can absolutely win. They’ve won 12 in a row vs Southern Illinois at home with the Salukis last win in Bloomington coming in 2006. There is a reason the team that is 1-6 in league play is favored. Take Illinois State. |
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01-24-20 | Celtics v. Magic -1.5 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
ASA play on: Orlando Magic -1.5 over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET The Celtics have some key injuries heading into this contest but that’s not the main reason for this selection. Orlando has made solid stride this season and are looking like a quality playoff contender in the East. The Magic do it with a defense that allows the least points per game at 104.3 and has the 6th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.062 points per possession. Orlando is 13-9 SU on their home floor with the 14th best home differential of +2.6PPG. The Magic have faced one of the toughest schedules in the NBA when at home this season with 12 games against current playoff teams. We like the situation with the Magic off home loss which came after a brutal 6-game West Coast road trip. We predict Boston will let down here following a pair of big home wins, especially with the light roster. The Celtics are 11-9 SU on the road this season but they have lost their last three away from home. Orlando has beaten the Celtics in three straight meetings and 4 of the last five. This is a great spot to fade Boston and back Orlando. Magic by 10. |
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01-23-20 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. South Dakota -7 | Top | 60-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON South Dakota -7 over IPFW, Thursday at 8 PM ET We were on South Dakota on Sunday vs a South Dakota State team that was sitting in 1st place in the Summit at the time. South Dakota rolled them by a final score of 99-84. As we mentioned on Sunday, we feel the Coyotes are much better than their 12-8 record (3-3 in conference play) because their leader and starting PG Triston Simpson missed 7 games between November 30th and December 22nd and his loss was a big one. During that stretch South Dakota had a 3-4 record and now that he is back to full strength they are playing their best basketball of the year. They have won 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss was by 2 points @ North Dakota State (currently in 1st place in the Summit). We picked this veteran Coyotes (4 senior starters & 1 junior starter) to win the Summit prior to the season and they are now playing up to those standards. Their opponent tonight, IPFW, is one of the worst teams in the league.  They have lost 6 of their last 9 games with all 6 of those losses coming by at least 9 points. They rank dead last in the conference (league games) in offensive efficiency and eFG%. On top of that they are a poor defensive team ranking 322nd nationally in eFG% defense and 314th in 3-point FG% defense. That will be a huge problem tonight as they face a South Dakota offense that is among the best in the country. The Coyotes are shooting over 48% on the season (13th nationally) and over 41% from beyond the arc (1st nationally). They are very tough to guard with all 5 starters averaging at least 10 PPG, shooting at least 45% from the field, and 3 of the 5 starters hitting 43% or better from behind the arc. The Coyotes also will have some extra motivation (x2) for this game as these two met a few weeks ago @ IPFW and the Mastodons pulled off the upset. The normally very good shooting South Dakota team made only 36% of their shots in that game and the previously mentioned Triston Simpson had just returned from his injury and was 0 for 6 from the field and committed 5 turnovers. He has since gotten back into a groove with 41 points, 10 assists, and just 2 turnovers in his last 3 games combined. On top of that, this South Dakota team lost to IPFW in last year’s Summit League tourney ending the Coyotes season. IPFW is just 2-8 SU on the road this year and they will struggle keeping up offensively vs South Dakota who just put up 99 points here at home vs one of the top teams in the Summit. We’ll lay this number and expect a double digit win for South Dakota. |
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01-22-20 | Pacers -1 v. Suns | Top | 112-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -1 over Phoenix Suns 9PM ET We certainly like the situation with a good team like Indiana off a horrible showing and loss in their previous game. We successfully played against the Pacers in their previous game as they were in a bad scheduling situation coming off a win in Denver the night before and facing a red hot Jazz team in Utah. Now Indiana has a day of rest and step down in talent to face the Suns. The Pacers had won 5 straight games leading into the Jazz loss and had won four straight road games against quality foes. Indiana has been very good when coming off a loss with a 5-1 spread run. Phoenix is average (15th) in the NBA when it comes to a point differential of +0.8PPG but have a losing record of 9-15 SU. Of the Suns 9-home wins only 3 have come against teams with winning records. The Suns rank in the bottom third of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings while Indiana is 11th in both when playing of the road. Phoenix is on an 0-5 ATS spread run at home and Indiana will make it six in a row. |
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01-22-20 | Penn State v. Michigan -5 | Top | 72-63 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan -5 over Penn State, Wed at 7 PM ET This has become a must win early season situation for Michigan who has lost 3 of their last 4 games to drop to 2-4 in the Big 10. The Wolverines have played one of the toughest schedules on the nation (4th SOS) and all 6 of their losses on the season have come to teams ranked in our top 35 power rankings. Five of those six losses have come on the road with their only home loss coming by 1-point in OT vs Oregon in a game the Ducks shot the lights out hitting over 50% from the field and from behind the arc. The Wolverines are home off 2 straight road losses @ Minnesota by 8 and @ Iowa by 7. The actually led the Gophers with only 3:00 minutes remaining and also led Iowa with 5:00 minutes remaining so they were very close to a couple of big road wins. They catch Penn State off a huge home win over Ohio State on Saturday. Now the Nittany Lions head on the road where they are 0-3 SU in Big 10 play with losses @ Ohio St, @ Rutgers, and @ Minnesota. The Wolverines are one of the best shooting teams in the nation and at home they are even better hitting 51% of his shots and averaging 83 PPG. This is a very tough spot for a PSU team that has simply not historically been good on the road in conference play. As we mentioned they have yet to win a Big 10 road game this year and they have won just 8 of their last 32 conference road games. They are 0-9 their last 9 trips to Ann Arbor losing by an average of 12 PPG. Going back further PSU is just 1-16 SU their last 17 games here. Big 10 home teams continue to roll in the money with a 31-19 ATS record in conference play. Here we have a good Big 10 team at home in a spot they need to win with a more than manageable line. Take Michigan. |
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01-21-20 | Clippers +1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Clippers +1.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET You know you’ve made it in the NBA when you are referred to by just one name and Luka Doncic has joined that elite status in the Association. With that success and fame though the Mavs have now become a very public team with bettors and have provided opportunities to bet against them in the right situation. Tonight, is that scenario as the Mavs are just 3-6 ATS at home versus winning teams, just 1-6 ATS overall as a home dog or small home favorite of less than 4-points. That streak includes a home loss to this same Clippers team earlier this season. Los Angeles is 8-3 SU their last eleven road games and coming off a solid road win against the red-hot Pelicans a few nights ago. The Clippers are top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency along with average margin of victory at +2.4PPG. The Mavs are top 10 at home in offensive efficiency and average MOV but rank 17th in defensive efficiency. Dallas is playing well their last five games, but the Clippers have been even better. With or without Paul George the Clippers get a big road win tonight.  |
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01-21-20 | Illinois v. Purdue -5.5 | Top | 79-62 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over Illinois, Tuesday at 7 PM ET Purdue has the largest home-road dichotomies in the Big 10 and one of the most drastic in the nation. The Boilers are 0-5 SU in true road games with an average score of 55-68. At home they are 8-1 winning by an average score of 77-54. They have now lost 3 of their last 4 games (all losses on the road) and sit with a 3-4 Big 10 record which is tied for 9th in the league. This is a huge home game for them and one they cannot afford to lose. Their most recent home game, and their only win over their last 4 games, was vs 1st place Michigan State on Sunday, January 12th. That was a game that saw the Boilermakers crush the best team in the conference by a final score of 71-42. They have now won all but one of their home games by double digits and their defense has been lights out at Mackey Arena holding 6 of their 9 opponents under 60 points and allowing opponents to hit only 38% of their shots overall and just 25% from beyond the arc. Purdue should be a little extra motivated for this game after losing @ Illinois 63-37 just 2 weeks ago. They made just 15 of their 60 shot attempts in the game (25%) and only 3 of their 17 from beyond the arc (18%). The Illini are 5-2 in conference and they have won 4 straight. After beating Purdue, the Illini went to Wisconsin and won by 1 point (came from 10 down and just over 5:00 minutes remaining), they struggled at home to get by Rutgers by 3 and Illinois by 4. Because of their run, Illinois is now ranked 24th by the AP Poll which is the first time this program has been ranked since 2014. We often see teams that are not used to the national publicity of being ranked fall on their faces shortly after. We feel this is the game the Illini do just that vs an extremely motivated opponent. Illinois has had big time troubles when traveling to Purdue, as most Big 10 teams have, losing 9 of the last 10 with their average loss coming by 10.2 points. We like Purdue to win again by double digits picking up another home cover. Another note we’ve made in many of our Big 10 write ups, the home teams continue to win at a huge clip with a 116-10 SU record on the year if we take out the 2 worst teams in the league (Northwestern & Nebraska). More of the same on Tuesday. |
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01-20-20 | Kings +6 v. Heat | Top | 113-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Sacramento Kings +6 over Miami Heat, 5PM ET *Note this is a day game* The statistical support is underwhelming here as we are going against the Heat at home where they are 18-1 SU but we like the situation and the points with the Kings. Miami is in a tough spot here playing their 3rd game in four days and the second of a back to back after a loss yesterday in San Antonio. The Kings meanwhile had a day off after a loss in Utah. Statistically the Kings don’t have great numbers on the road this year with a 7-14 SU record but they’ve also been plagued by several key injuries. They are finally healthy with Bagley, Bjelica and Fox on the court together and should start trending up with a full roster. Sacramento is just 1-3 SU their last four on the road but two of the losses were at Denver and Memphis by 5 and 4-points. Miami has struggled this season when playing without rest with just 1 cover in seven tries this season. Don’t expect much energy in Miami for this day game and don’t be surprised when the Kings hand the Heat their second home loss of the season. |
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01-20-20 | Charlotte v. Old Dominion -4.5 | Top | 62-66 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Old Dominion -4.5 over Charlotte, Monday at 4:30 PM ET ODU has lost 3 straight, all road games, and now they sit at 2-3 in Conference USA. They now have 3 straight home games and a chance to get back into the conference race. One of those 3 road losses for the Monarchs was @ Charlotte on January 11th. It was a close game with Charlotte winning 53-47 despite ODU going 1 of 22 from 3-point range (Charlotte made 8 three pointers) and making only 4 FT’s (Charlotte made 11 FT’s). Those disadvantages from deep and at the foul line should have resulted in an easy Charlotte win at home and it did not. ODU is a bit undervalued coming off 3 losses and due to their 6-12 record on the season. They have played a very tough schedule (91st most difficult non-conference slate) including the likes of Illinois, VCU, Washington State, Northern Iowa, Richmond, and Loyola. This is a very solid program under head coach Jeff Jones coming off a 26-9 record last season and getting to at least 25 wins in 4 of the last 5 seasons. They are taking on a Charlotte team that has a better overall record at 10-6 but, unlike ODU, has played one of the easiest schedules in the country (316th SOS). The 49ers have played 1 team ranked inside the top 100 this year and that was a loss vs Georgia State, currently ranked 98th. Charlotte is also playing their 3rd road game in 5 days after winning @ Marshall by 2 points on Thursday and then losing @ WKY by 17 points on Saturday. Old Dominion has dominated this series winning 9 of the last 11 SU and they’ve been favored by at least 10 points at home vs Charlotte each of the last 4 meetings. Now they are laying only 4.5 and we like ODU to cover this one at home. |
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01-19-20 | South Dakota State v. South Dakota -1.5 | Top | 84-99 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON South Dakota -1.5 over South Dakota State, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET South Dakota State sits at 5-1 and in 1st place in the Summit. We feel they are overvalued right now and this is a great spot to go against them. They have played a very easy conference schedule as they’ve already faced the 4 worst teams in the 9 team Summit. Their other 2 games were vs Oral Roberts (win at home) and Nebraska Omaha (loss on the road). They’ve played 3 road games in conference play losing to Omaha as we mentioned and the other 2 were wins but @ Denver and @ Western Illinois, the 2 worst teams in the league. We picked this South Dakota team to contend for the Summit title this year as they returned 4 starters and another who sat out last season but started in 2018. The started league play slowly with back to back road losses but have since won 2 of their last 3. Their lone loss during that stretch was @ North Dakota State 72-70 on Wednesday night. State is also one of the favorites to win the conference. The Coyotes 11-8 overall record is also a bit misleading as they played 7 games spanning late November into late December without one of their top players Triston Simpson (Senior starting point guard). Their record was 3-4 without him in the lineup. They are 7-1 at home this year shooting over 50% from the field and averaging 80 PPG. South Dakota State is 14-7 overall this year however they have beaten a grand total of ONE team ranked inside the top 200 this season (Oral Roberts at home). Unlike South Dakota, they lost 4 of their top 5 players off last year’s team and and their coach who moved onto UNLV. While they currently sit in 1st place, we feel the Jackrabbits are ripe for an upset. |
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01-19-20 | Heat v. Spurs +1.5 | Top | 102-107 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: San Antonio Spurs +1 over Miami Heat, 3PM ET This is a great spot to back a veteran, proven team at home off a humiliating loss AND playing with nearly immediate revenge after losing in Miami just a few nights ago. San Antonio just lost at home to the Hawks who they had beaten 21 straight times on their home court. The Spurs blew a 14-point lead in a sloppy 4th quarter. Good team respond after efforts like that and even though the Spurs aren’t contender this season, they are still a proud franchise with great coaching and will bounce back here. Miami has struggled on the road all season long with a 11-11 SU record away from home and a negative differential of -2.6PPG (14th). In their most recent meeting, the Heat shot remarkably well at home where they are 18-1, by hitting 47% for the field and 42% from 3. They typically don’t shoot that well away from home this season and face a well-motivated Spurs team. It’s not often the Spurs are a home underdog as it’s happened just 22 times since the start of the 2017 season and they have won 15 of those games. Not to mention they are 8-1-1 ATS their last ten when coming off a loss. We’re betting San Antonio here and invite you to do the same. |
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01-18-20 | Purdue v. Maryland -5 | Top | 50-57 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Maryland -5 over Purdue, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET Great spot for the Terps here. They are off 2 consecutive road losses @ Iowa and @ Wisconsin. Now sitting at 3-3 in the Big 10, they can’t afford to give this home game away before going on the road for 2 more games next week. Purdue comes in off a huge home upset over Michigan State. They key word there is home, where the Boilers are very good. Not so much on the road. Purdue is 1-4 this year in true road games (0-3 in the Big 10) with their only win coming @ Ohio who currently rates as the 10th best team in the MAC. Their road losses in conference play have come by 6, 14, and 26 points including a setback @ Nebraska, the worst team in the Big 10. They are not a very good shooting team to begin with ranking 283rd nationally at 41.7%, however those number drop significantly when they are on the road. In fact, in their 5 road games the Boilers have managed to make only 35% of their attempts and just 25% from beyond the arc. To put those poor numbers in perspective, if those were the full season percentages for Purdue, they would rank 347th out of 350 in both of those categories. Not good to say the least. Not only is Maryland in a semi-must win game here, they are back at home where they are 10-0 SU this season winning by an average of 18 PPG. All but 1 of those 10 home wins have come by at least 10 points. The Terps play great defense allowing opponents to shoot just 37% so don’t expect a poor shooting Purdue team to find their rhythm in this game. Maryland has topped 70 points in 8 of their 10 home games while Purdue is averaging just 59 PPG on the road this year. Last year when the Terps played host to the Boilers they were small dogs (+2) and rolled Purdue 70-56. At Purdue the Terrapins almost pulled the upset a year ago losing by 2. The Boilermakers were a much better team last year ranked consistently in Ken Pom’s top 10 throughout the season. Maryland is a better team this year returning all but 1 key member from last year’s NCAA tourney team. The Big 10 home teams continue to dominate with a remarkable 108-10 SU mark if you subtract the 2 worst teams in the league (Northwestern & Nebraska). Great situation for Maryland and they are the better team this year. Lay the small number. |
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01-17-20 | Hawks v. Spurs -8 | Top | 121-120 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -8.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 8:30PM ET The Spurs have been up and down, but we like them here off a road loss in Miami a few nights ago. Conversely, the Hawks are off a rare win, just their 3rd in their last eighteen games, and we don’t see them playing well here. San Antonio is 3-1 SU their last four home games which includes a 22-point home win over the Bucks in their last home game. Atlanta has the worst average differential in the NBA this season at minus -13.8PPG. In the Hawks most recent road contest they were just +8.5 point in Brooklyn who rates several spots lower than the Spurs in our power ratings and yet the number is the same in this matchup. Atlanta was drubbed by the Nets by 22-points in that road game. Atlanta is 1-7 SU off a win this season while the Spurs are 6-3 ATS at home off a loss. Current trending statistics have the Hawk shooting under 42% their last five games while the Spurs are hitting over 48% of their FG attempts. The Hawks defense over their last five games has been worse than the Spurs also. San Antonio is 11-9 SU at home this year but have faced 10 teams at home that made the playoffs last year and the Hawks aren’t of that caliber. Atlanta is just 6-14 ATS as a dog in the price range of 5 to 9.5-points this season and their 25th ranked defensive efficiency unit will struggle to slow the Spurs 9th ranked OEFF unit. The Hawks also have the 30th ranked offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA. San Antonio by 10 plus points. |
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01-16-20 | Jazz v. Pelicans OVER 225 | Top | 132-138 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
ASA play on: 10* OVER 225 Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8PM ET This marks the 3rd meeting of the season for these two clubs and the first two soared Over the posted totals with 248 and 254 total points being scored in the two games. Those two contests saw 184 and 183 combined field goals attempted which are both higher than league average per game. The Pelicans are 5th in the NBA in pace of play and will look to push the tempo. Utah is 20th in pace but make up for it with the 11th ranked offensive efficiency unit averaging 1.108 points per possession. The Jazz average 109.7PPG on the season but during their current 10-game winning streak they are scoring a hair under 117PPG. New Orleans has also seen an uptick in scoring of late as they are scoring +5 more points per game in their last five games compared to their season average. The Pelicans will be without Jrue Holiday tonight who is one of the teams leading scorers but he’s also one of the leagues best perimeter defenders which makes stopping the Jazz’s Donovan Mitchel (24PPG) that much tougher. The Over is on a 7-3 run in this series and win #8 is on hand this evening. |
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01-16-20 | Georgia Southern v. Troy State +5 | Top | 82-66 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Troy +5 over Georgia Southern, Thursday at 7 PM ET Troy comes in undervalued with a 7-11 overall record, 3-4 in the Sun Belt. They are better than their record and playing very well right now. After starting conference play with a 1-3 record, the Trojans have won 2 of their last 3 with their only loss during that stretch coming on Saturday @ Arkansas State where they lost in OT. Troy led by 11 in the game with just over 7:00 minutes to go and ASU was able to push the game to OT and get a win. Prior to that the Trojans won by 8 @ Texas State (the pre-season favorite in the Sun Belt) as a 10 point dog and then topped 1st place Little Rock by 5 as a 2 point dog here at Trojan Arena. Tonight they face a Georgia Southern team that is tied for 1st place (along with Little Rock and Georgia State) and we give Troy a great shot at beating a 1st place team at home for the 2nd straight week. Georgia Southern is off back to back double digit wins at home vs the two worst teams in the conference (UL Monroe & UL Lafayette) to improve their home mark to 8-0. However, on the road this GSU team is just 2-6 SU including conference losses @ App State and @ Little Rock. Their lone Sun Belt road win was by 3 points @ Coastal Carolina. Even if they win here, we expect it to be close and Southern is laying 5 points when one week ago, Little Rock (also in 1st place) was laying 2 @ Troy (and lost as we mentioned). The current spread of -5 is GSU’s highest number they’ve laid on the road this season, tied with when they played @ Florida Gulf Coast who is ranked 320th, has a 5-14 record with 2 of their wins coming vs non-division 1 schools and 2 other wins in OT. This line is too high. Troy is better defensively allowing 41.6% (150th nationally) while Southern allows 44% and is a full 100 spots lower in total defense (250th nationally). Troy has won 5 of their last 6 at home with their only loss coming by 5 vs App State in a game the Trojans led by 12 in the 2nd half. Again, we feel Troy has a great shot to win this game and even if not, it should be close. Take the points. |
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01-15-20 | Magic +11 v. Lakers | Top | 119-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: Orlando Magic +10.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET We like the Magic in this match up and the double-digits being offered by the oddsmakers. Let’s start with the Magic who have won 5 of their last seven games and getting great contributions from Vucevic, Fornier, Fultz and Gordon. The Magic have been great defensively all season long allowing the least amount of points in the NBA this season, but the offense has struggled. In their last five games though their offensive efficiency numbers are trending up significantly. The Lakers are an impressive 16-4 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory is +10.6 PPG which is on the number here. Of the Lakers 16 home wins though, six of those wins came against six of the worst teams in the NBA and were blowouts by 19 or more points which has inflated their average margin of victory numbers. Tonight, they face a relevant Magic teams that is obviously great defensively and capable of hanging within the spread. Los Angeles is also in a bad scheduling situation here as they just crushed the horrible Cavs and have a big game in Houston next. It looks like Anthony Davis will be out of the lineup again tonight which is a bonus for our Magic bet. Grab the points with the Magic who have been double-digit dogs just once this season and they covered that game. |
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01-15-20 | Indiana v. Rutgers -3 | Top | 50-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -3 over Indiana, Wed at 7 PM ET - ASAwins Big 10 Game of the Week This game has set up perfectly for Rutgers in our opinion. The Scarlet Knights are a very good team this year and we’re catching them off a tight loss @ Illinois on Saturday in a game they never trailed by more than 6. That dropped them to 3-2 in Big 10 play with their other loss coming @ Michigan State a game Rutgers trailed by just 6 with under 4:00 minutes remaining. Tonight starts a huge stretch for the Knights with 4 of their last 5 at home. They can make a big move in the Big 10 and it starts vs Indiana. They are a perfect 11-0 at home including conference wins over top 35 opponents Penn State (35th), Wisconsin (22nd) and Seton Hall (13th). They have won by at least 10 points in 8 of their 11 home games including an impressive 20 point victory over Seton Hall who is currently rated as the top team in the Big East. The Knights are simply fantastic on defense ranking 13th nationally in defensive efficiency and 9th in the country allowing their opponents to shoot just 36.7% from the field. Indiana is vastly overrated in our opinion with a 13-3 record. They are 3-2 in Big 10 play as well but have played the easiest conference schedule to date having already faced both Northwestern & Nebraska, the two worst teams in the league by a mile. We currently have IU rated as the 11th best team in the conference and Ken Pom’s ratings almost agree as he has them 10th. The Hoosiers are coming off a big home win over OSU on Saturday in a game that was much closer than the 66-54 final score. Before that IU struggled to beat Northwestern (won by 4) and Nebraska (by 6 in OT) and both of those games were at home. They have played just 2 true road games on the season and they were smoked in both games losing by 20 @ Wisconsin and by 16 @ Maryland. The Hoosiers are averaging just 60 PPG on 38% shooting on the road and tonight they run into one of the best defensive teams in the nation as we mentioned. This Rutgers team is by far their best team in the last 15+ seasons. We have them rated in the top 30 and Ken Pom has them at 32. To put that in perspective, they haven’t been in the top 70 period since Ken Pom’s records began in 2002. They’ve actually been outside the top 100 in most of those seasons. Last year when these two met here, Rutgers was ranked 97th in KenPom and they won by 8. Two years ago Rutgers was ranked 130th at the time they beat Indiana in the Big 10 tournament. The Knights continue to fly under the radar and the oddsmakers haven’t even caught up with this team as they are 9-1 ATS their last 10. The Big 10 is loaded this year which makes it tough to win on the road. In fact, if you subtract the two worst teams (Nebraska & Northwestern) the top 12 teams in the conference have a record of 107-10 SU at home. We really like Rutgers here and expect an easy cover. |
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01-14-20 | DePaul +9.5 v. Villanova | Top | 75-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON DePaul +9.5 over Villanova, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET on Fox Sports One We’re getting some value here on DePaul because of their 0-3 start in the Big East.  Make no mistake this team is the best Blue Demon team in well over a decade. Don’t forget this team won 12 of their first 13 games before their current 3 game losing streak. They topped some very solid teams during that early run as well beating Iowa, Minnesota, and Boston College on the road and Texas Tech at home. The Demons are 4-1 SU in their 5 road games this year with wins over some legit competition as we mentioned. Their 4 losses this season have all been competitive with margins of 1, 5, 7, and 8 points.  Their 3 game Big East losing streak is nothing to be ashamed of as they took Seton Hall (the 2nd highest rated Big East team behind Butler) to the wire losing by 8 in a game the Demons led with 2:30 remaining in the game, an OT loss to a red hot Providence team, and then a 7 point loss @ St Johns over the weekend. Nova is solid but nowhere near their National Championship caliber teams of a few years ago. They are a young team with 2 freshmen & 2 sophomores in their top 6 rotation players. Their defense has fallen way off this year ranking 74th in defensive efficiency after ranking in the top 13 nationally in that category each year from 2014 through last season. They allow their opponents to shoot 44% on the season which ranks 246th. DePaul is the much better defensive team so far this season allowing 38.8% which puts them on the top 40 in the nation. The Wildcats are 3-1 in Big East play, however of their last 9 wins dating back to late February, 7 of those have come by 11 points or less, many against lower competition than they’ll be facing tonight vs DePaul. Villanova is good, not great. Facing a talented DePaul team in desperation mode, we just don’t see the Cats being able to pull away here. It should be close throughout and we’ll take the Blue Demons plus the points. |
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01-13-20 | Magic v. Kings UNDER 212.5 | Top | 114-112 | Loss | -111 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
ASA play on: 10* UNDER 212 Orlando Magic @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET This match up features the 3rd (Kings) and 4th (Magic) slowed paced teams in the NBA as both average 98 or less possessions per game. Both teams also have some great defensive characteristics which also favors the Under in this game. Orlando allows the least amount of points per game in the NBA at 103.3 while Sacramento gives up 109PPG which is 13th best. Clearly the energy spent on the defensive end of the court affects their offensive numbers which are dreadful. Orlando ranks last in the NBA in scoring at 103.5PPG and are 26th in offensive efficiency rankings. Sacramento isn’t a whole lot better with the 24th scoring offense in the league at 106.2PPG and the 21st OEFF rankings. The Magic have held 8 of their last ten opponents to 101 or less points. The Kings defense has been especially good against other teams in the league with similar offensive numbers as Orlando’s. The last four times these two teams have met the Under has cashed all four times and 7 of the last eight. Bet the value here…BET UNDER! |
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01-12-20 | Hornets +8.5 v. Suns | Top | 92-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
ASA 10* Play on: Charlotte Hornets +8.5 over Phoenix Suns, 8PM ET The Suns have certainly overachieved this season thus far but that success has led to some lofty spreads as favorites which is not a role they excel in. When favored by 5 or more points this season they are just 2-4 ATS. Phoenix is 4-6 SU their last ten games and the four wins have all come by less than the spread on this game. Charlotte has played a brutal stretch of games against some of the leagues best teams and now step down to their own level of competition. The Hornets were recently underdogs of +12 at Utah, +11.5 at Dallas and +12.5 at Boston and now the 15-23 SU Suns are laying -8.5 points. The Hornets are 9-1 ATS their last ten road games against a team with a sub .400 home winning percentage which is the case today against Phoenix. The Suns have just 1 cover in their last six games as a chalk. Grab the points with Charlotte. |
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01-12-20 | Michigan v. Minnesota -2 | Top | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Minnesota -2 over Michigan, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We love this spot for the Gophers at home. They are 2-3 in Big 10 play and have played the 2nd toughest conference slate of all league teams. Their losses have all come on the road to Michigan State, Iowa, and Purdue in double OT. Their most recent game was the loss @ MSU on Thursday night. The 74-58 Spartan win was a bit misleading as they were within 8 or less for much of the 2nd half. Also no embarrassment losing @ Michigan State who is the best team in the Big 10. At home the Gophers are 2-0 in conference play beating Ohio St by 13 and Northwestern by 9. The Wolverines are 3-2 in conference play but in a tough spot here coming off a double OT home win vs Purdue on Thursday. They are thin to begin (pretty much a 6 man rotation) especially with their best shooter Isaiah Livers out of the lineup. In Thursday’s double OT win the Wolverines had 4 players log 39+ minutes. It was a physically and emotionally draining game with neither team leading by more than 5 the entire game! Now going on the road vs a very solid Minnesota team coming off a loss will be tough. As with most Big 10 teams this year, Michigan has been very tough at home but in their 3 true road games they are 0-3 with all 3 losses coming by at least 9 points. Livers, who is averaging over 13 PPG and shooting over 50% from 3, has missed the last 3 games and remains out for Michigan. With him on the sidelines (groin injury) they have shot just 27% from beyond the arc. Minnesota, on the other hand, is back to full strength with the return of starting PG Willis who missed between Dec 21 and Jan 2. So Michigan is ranked 19th and an underdog to a team that has an 8-7 record? While the masses jump on the ranked underdog here, we know Michigan is a bit overvalued right now while Minnesota is a very dangerous team that is better than their record. Take the Gophers.   |
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01-11-20 | Louisiana-Monroe v. Georgia State -11.5 | Top | 62-84 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia State -11.5 over Louisiana Monroe, Saturday at 2 PM ET GSU is rated by most analytics as the best team in the Sun Belt right now and our numbers agree with that. They are 4-2 in conference play but their losses have come on the road and both were down to the wire losing by 2 @ Coastal Carolina and by 3 @ Arkansas State. In their game @ Ark State the Panthers blew a 14 point 2nd half lead. GSU is 11-6 and their other losses, besides their 2 Sun Belt setbacks, have all come on the road vs top notch teams. They lost @ Duke by 11, @ SMU by 9, @ Georgetown by 8, and @ Charleston (the top team in the Colonial) by 4. As you can see, they’ve played a very tough schedule ranked the 89th toughest in the country. They have played only 1 home game in league play (4-2 record) and they won that game vs Louisiana 90-52 and they are a perfect 7-0 at home, 20-1 since the start of last season. Louisiana Monroe is just 2-4 in league play despite playing the easiest schedule in the conference thus far. They also fall way behind GSU on overall strength of schedule (285th) and even with that easy slate they have a 6-9 overall record. The Warhawks are 0-6 on the road this year and they are playing their 3rd road game on 6 days having played @ Coastal Carolina on Monday (lost by 29) and @ Georgia Southern on Thursday (lost by 11 but trailed by 19 with 4:00 minutes remaining in the game). Their road losses have come by an average of 17 PPG. Monroe doesn’t match up well with Georgia State as they need to be able to hit 3’s to stay in this game. The Warhawks are good at shooting from deep hitting 39% but they are facing a GSU team that allows opponents to hit only 28% of their 3’s (21st in the nation). Other than shooting 3’s, La Monroe is not good offensively as they are poor inside the arc and they don’t shoot FT’s well. They average only 63.8 PPG (326th nationally) and in their road games they’ve only averaged 52.8 PPG. That’s a HUGE problem here as we don’t feel they’ll be able to keep up with Georgia State. That’s because the Panthers average 80 PPG and at home they are putting up 86 PPG. GSU is a very good shooting team (69th overall and 6th best 3-point shooting team in the country) and we just don’t see ULM having a chance to stay in this one. |
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01-10-20 | Maryland v. Iowa +2 | Top | 49-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Iowa +2 over Maryland, Friday at 7 PM ET This is a huge game for the Hawkeyes.  Sort of a must win already even though it’s early in the season.  Iowa is currently 1-3 in Big Ten play and they are off back to back road losses @ Penn State and @ Nebraska.  The Hawkeyes have played just one home game in conference play and that was a 20 point win over Minnesota.  They can’t afford a loss here and we expect a great effort.  Maryland is 3-1 in Big 10 play but their schedule has been the opposite of Iowa’s with 3 home games and just one road game.  They are off back to back big home wins over Indiana and Ohio State and we would expect them to be a bit flat after knocking off the Buckeyes earlier this week.  The Terps have played just 2 true road games and lost both including a 7 point loss @ Penn State.  Maryland is not a great shooting team ranking 157th in shooting percentage and 217th in 3 point shooting percentage.  On the road they’ve been worse, as we mentioned they are 0-2 on the road, and shooting just 38%.  Iowa is 6-1 SU at home this year and 5-2 ATS shooting over 47%.  The Big 10 is so incredibly balanced this year it’s going to be tough to get wins on the road.  That has proven true thus far.  If you subtract the 2 worst teams in the conference (Nebraska & Northwestern) the home teams are an incredible 99-9 SU this season.  Iowa gets a much needed home win on Friday Night. |
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01-09-20 | Arizona v. Oregon -3.5 | Top | 73-74 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oregon -3.5 over Arizona, Thursday at 9 PM ET We think this Arizona team is solid but a bit overvalued at this point of the season. They are very young starting 3 freshman and they have played a grand total of ONE true road game this season, a loss @ Baylor. After starting the season 9-0, the Wildcats have struggled as of late winning just 2 of their last 5 games. In their first 9 games Arizona played just one team currently ranked inside the top 90 and that was Illinois and the game was in Tucson. Over their last 5 games they have played 3 top 90 teams and lost to all 3 of them (St Johns, Gonzaga, and Baylor). Their best wins this season have come against Illinois (29th), New Mexico State (90th), Arizona State (93rd) and Wake Forest (95th). Three of those four games were played at home and the other vs Wake Forest was a 7-point win on a neutral court. The Cats have played a true road game in over a month and now they must face one of the best teams in the nation in a tough environment. The Ducks are 8-0 at home this year and they have won 14 of their last 15 games here at Knight Arena. They are a great offensive team hitting 50% of their shots on the season (5th best in the nation) and almost 40% of their 3 point attempts (10th in the nation). They are lethal offensively at home hitting 55% of their shots and 44% of their 3 pointers. The Ducks are led by a senior point guard Peyton Pritchard that is among the best in the nation. Oregon has dominated the Cats here in Eugene as of late winning 5 of the last 6 meetings. As good as Arizona has been, OU has controlled this series overall in recent meetings winning 9 of the last 14. This line is more than manageable for the Ducks as home and we’ll call for them to win and cover. |
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01-09-20 | Celtics +2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 98-109 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics +2.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET The Celtics have lost twice to the 76ers this season and can’t afford another loss to one of their biggest rivals. In fact, the Celtics had won 17 of the last nineteen regular season meetings with the Sixers prior to the start of this season. Boston is off a pair of losses including a humbling blowout at home last night to the Spurs so expect a focused team tonight. There shouldn’t be any concern for fatigue here on the side of the Celtics as no starter logged over 30-minutes last night. The Sixers have one of the best home court records and average point differential this year at 17-2 and +9.7PPG and they’re only favored by a bucket here? Boston has the 4th best road differential at +5.9PPG and have been very reliable on the road off a loss with a 4-1 record this season. Dating back to the start of the 2013 season, Stevens and the Celtics have won 60% of their games when coming off a defeat, which is the 6th best record in the NBA over that span of time. Philadelphia will be shorthanded without Joel Embiid tonight who has 53-points, 25-rebounds and 9 assists in the previous two meetings this season. The 76ers haven’t covered a number in five straight games while the C’s are 5-1 ATS their last six as a road dog. Boston wins this one outright! |
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01-08-20 | Kansas -5 v. Iowa State | Top | 79-53 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas -5 over Iowa State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET We have this line power rated to KU -7 so the value is on the Jayhawks in our opinion. Kansas has just 2 losses on the season to Duke way back on November 5th and then a 1 point setback @ Villanova. They have played the toughest schedule in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy yet all 11 of their wins have come by more than 5 points which is tonight’s spread. KU has played 13 games on the season and ISU will be just the 7th highest rated team they’ve played this year to give you an idea of their schedule strength. This number is set low because ISU has had success vs Kansas in Ames with a decent 3-3 SU record over the last 6 seasons. However, this Cyclone team is not the equivalent of teams they’ve had in the past. We have this team rated in the mid 60’s this season and the teams that beat KU here the last 3 times were ranked 17th, 15th, and 16th in our power ratings at the time of the game. We wouldn’t even really consider those big upsets so to speak. This year’s Iowa State team already has 6 losses and they are just 2-5 SU vs top 100 teams. They also have 2 home losses already this year getting whipped by Iowa 84-68 and losing to Florida A&M who was ranked 311th at the time. Their best player Haliburton missed the Florida A&M game but that tells you about the surrounding cast this season which is way down from past seasons. Despite playing the tougher schedule, KU is 13th in offensive efficiency (ISU is 26th) and 2nd in defensive efficiency (ISU is 99th). The Jayhawk defense allows opponents to shoot just 33% which is #1 in the nation compared to Iowa State who allows 43% which is 170th in the nation. Kansas will also have a big edge on the boards in this game as the Cyclones are very poor on the defensive glass (298th nationally) and not much better on the offensive glass (197th). Kansas has been a great road team under Bill Self winning 27 of their last 40 true road games outright and they get another tonight. KU with the win and cover. |
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01-07-20 | TCU v. Kansas State +1 | Top | 59-57 | Loss | -111 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Kansas State +1 over TCU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET on ESPNU TCU has played one of the easier schedules for a Power 5 school (244th SOS) and along with that the vast majority of their games have been at home. This will, in fact, be their FIRST true road game of the season and they Frogs have not left the state of Texas since playing in a tourney in Las Vegas in late November. They are 10-3 on the season and they should probably have a better record than that as they’ve been a favorite in EVERY game this year due to playing a weak schedule and almost all home games. KSU has just a 7-6 record but they’ve already played nearly half of their games (6) away from home. All of their losses have come against top 100 teams with the exception of Bradley who ranks just outside the top 100.  Five of their six losses have gone to the wire with margins of 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8 points vs solid competition. The Wildcats are 6-1 at home (22-3 SU their last 25 here) and this will be just their 2nd home game since December 11th. Over the weekend they traveled to Oklahoma to take on the Sooners and lost by 6 but led by double digits around midway through the 2nd half. TCU relies very heavily on the 3 point shot which at times does not travel well. Over 40% of their points come from beyond the arc and KSU’s defense has been very good defending the arc allowing less than 31%. TCU almost never gets to the FT line as 11.8% of their points come from the stripe which is dead last in the nation. That means they better be making their 3’s and for a team that hasn’t been away from home since November, that might be a tough task. This is a big home game for KSU who is now 0-1 in the Big 12 after their road loss on Saturday. They are 6-1 at home vs TCU since 2013 and we fully expect an outright win here.       |
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01-07-20 | Pistons v. Cavs UNDER 219.5 | Top | 115-113 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: UNDER 219.5 Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET The number on this game has been bet up by more than 4-points and we’ll put ourselves on the oddsmakers side here and play UNDER the total. Both teams have injury concerns and will be missing key contributors this evening. In their last five games the Pistons have played well defensively except for a pair of games against San Antonio and the Clippers where they gave up 132 and 126 points. But the Spurs are the 9th most efficient offense in the NBA while the Clippers are 4th. The Cavaliers offense isn’t anywhere close to that as they rank 27th out of 30 teams a 1.052 points per possession. Recently the Cavs gave up 121 to OKC who is 9th in OEFF their last five games and playing well on the offensive end of the floor. In another game the Cavs gave up 118 to Minnesota but the Wolves play fast ranking 8th in pace of play. Tempo won’t be a concern here as these teams rank 19th (Pistons) and 23rd (Cavs) in pace of play or possessions per game. Both teams field goal attempts are trending down their last five games compared to their season averages which means less scoring opportunities for both. On December 3rd when these two teams last met the Pistons put up 127 points on 54% shooting but had Blake Griffin and Morris in the lineup (both out tonight) who combined for 36-points. Our calculation project just 213 total points being scored here. BET UNDER! |
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01-06-20 | Warriors v. Kings UNDER 215 | Top | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: UNDER 215 Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET Our baseline for NBA average total points scored per game is around 220. The Total set on this game is a few baskets lower than a league average game. Our analytics say this game won’t get to 215 total points with the slowest paced team (Kings) in the NBA involved. The Warriors are average or 15th in the league in pace at 99.8 possessions per game. In their last five games the Warriors have played slower yet with 98 possessions per game. These two teams are bad when it comes to offensive efficiency with the Warriors ranking 28th and Sacramento 21st. Golden State is the worst EFG% shooting team in the NBA at 48.7% while the Kings rank 19th at 52%. These same two teams squared off in mid-December and combined for just 179 points and that was with the Kings shooting a remarkable 60% from the field. The Warriors had Draymond Green and D-Russell for that game (both out tonight) and still only managed 79-points. The Under has cashed 8 of the last 11 on this floor between these two teams and another low scoring affair is on hand tonight. |
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01-06-20 | South Alabama v. Texas-Arlington -5.5 | Top | 66-54 | Loss | -117 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UT Arlington -5.5 over South Alabama, 8:00 PM ET UTA enters this game with just a 5-10 overall record and they have lost 6 of their last 7 games. They are much better than their record and their current stretch gives us some nice value here. First of all, the Mavericks have played a brutally tough schedule which ranks as the 10th most difficult in college basketball to this point. This is their first home game in a month as they’ve just finished a 5 game road trip. Despite playing a very tough schedule, 8 of their 10 losses have come by 8 points or less including @ Arkansas Little Rock on Saturday (3 point loss). The Mavs definitely have some impressive losses, so to speak, they took Gonzaga, currently ranked #1 in the nation, to the wire on the road losing by 6. They lost at Nevada (top 85 team) by 7 and at Furman (top 65 team) by 1. All of their losses have come vs teams currently ranked 159th or better via Ken Pomeroy and tonight they face a South Alabama team ranked below 200. The Jaguars are 1-3 on the road with their only win coming by 3 points vs Louisiana who is ranked 266th. South Alabama’s 3 road losses have all come by 18 points or more with 2 of those 3 losses coming vs teams ranked lower that UT Arlington. They just lost by 20 points on Saturday @ Louisiana Monroe who is ranked as the 9th best team in the Sun Belt Conference. This will also be the Jaguars 3 straight road game in just a 5 day span. Arlington has the much better defense (123rd in defensive efficiency) and they will be facing a South Alabama defense that ranks below 300th in the same category. The Mavs were picked to finish 2nd in the Sun Belt by the coaches before the season started and at 1-3 currently in conference play (all road games), this is a must win. UTA has won 5 straight in this series by an average of 14 PPG and they’ve been favored by at least 12 points their last 3 games at home in this match up. Now, because of their misleading start to the season, we’re laying a much lower number here.  Texas Arlington is the side tonight. |
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01-04-20 | San Diego State v. Utah State -2.5 | Top | 77-68 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Utah State -2.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET San Diego State steps into this game with a perfect 14-0 record so why is USU favored? Looks too easy to take SDSU. We like Utah State here. The Aggies are no slouch as they are 13-3 on the year and were picked by the coaches of the Mountain West to win this conference. They were 28-7 a year ago and return a number of key players from that team. They are coming off a poor effort @ UNLV losing 70-53 and we love looking at good teams off poor performances. Our guess is they were looking ahead to this huge match up. The Aggies are very tough to beat at home as they are undefeated here this year and have won 23 of their last 24 home games with their only loss during that run coming by 1 point. These teams met 3 teams last year with Utah State winning twice including here at home 70-54. The Aggies were favored by 8 at home last year to give you an idea of the value we are getting here. SDSU is very good this year but they haven’t played a true road game in a full month. Their starting center Nathan Mensah is most likely out here after he sat out their game vs Fresno earlier this week with a respiratory issue. He is a big loss as he leads the Aztecs in block shots, offensive rebounding and overall rebounding. Another key frontcourt player, Aguek Arop, looks like he will miss his 6th consecutive game. With Mensah out earlier this week, head coach Brian Dutcher was forced to change his starting line up for the first time this year. It didn’t matter as they were at home facing a Fresno team that is now 4-10 on the season and 0-3 in the Mountain West. It will matter here. We feel SDSU needs to be at full strength to come into USU and get a win and they are not. They are facing a team that shoots very well at home (48%) and defends very well at home (allowing 35%). The Aggies also shoot very well from the FT line (77%) and they get to the line a lot. That’s not a great match up for a SDSU team that does foul quite a bit as their opponents this year 22.5% of their points from the FT line (the 40th most in college hoops). We like this veteran Utah State team to win this game at home. |
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01-02-20 | Jazz -3.5 v. Bulls | Top | 102-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
ASA play on: Utah Jazz -3.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET The Jazz are playing fantastic right now with wins in 8 of their last nine games, including a recent road win against the Clippers. Utah does not have great road statistics, but they’ve played a tough road schedule which has dramatically impacted their numbers. The Jazz have already faced the best teams in the East and have two road games against the Clippers and one against the Lakers.  We are now getting value with Utah on the road here laying a marginal number. The Jazz have some of the best offensive and defensive efficiency numbers their last five games with an average margin of victory of +9.2PPG. The Bulls have won 3 of their last five games but those W’s have come against the league’s dregs of Atlanta, Detroit and Washington who have a combined 29-72 SU record. The Bulls offense has struggled all season with the 25th ranked scoring offense and the 30th worst shooting team in the NBA. The Bulls will struggle to score against the Jazz defense that is one of the best in the NBA year in and year out. Jazz by 10 in this one. |
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01-02-20 | St. Louis +3 v. Duquesne | Top | 59-73 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON St Louis +3 over Duquesne, Thursday at 7 PM ET These two both come into this game with just 2 losses but all records are not created equal. Duquesne is 10-2 but they have played a grand total of ZERO teams ranked inside the top 115. Their best win of the season was a 3 point win vs Indiana State on a neutral court. This St Louis team (ranked 91st) will be the best team they’ve faced this season. The Dukes are reeling a bit right now as well losing their last 2 games, vs UAB by 9 and Marshall by 22, after opening the season with 10 straight wins. St Louis has a 10-2 record and has played the much tougher schedule. The Billikens have faced 4 top 100 teams and they beat two of them including Kansas St on the road. Their only losses are to Auburn and Seton Hall, both ranked in the top 25 per our power ratings. STL has excelled away from home this year going 3-1 in road/neutral games with their only loss vs Auburn in Birmingham, AL. This will NOT be a true home game for Duquesne as they are renovating their arena this season and the Dukes will be playing at surrounding college venues. Tonight’s game will be played @ Robert Morris College with is about 17 miles away from the Duquesne campus and they have not played here yet this season. So not only are the students gone on break, but both teams are playing in an unfamiliar arena so we give Duquesne no home court advantage whatsoever tonight. These two A10 opponents met twice last season with Duquesne winning by 4 at home (their actual home court) and STL winning by 11 at home. One glaring stat in those 2 games was the Billikens offensive rebounding prowess. In those two games combined they gathered an amazing 47 offensive rebounds! They are again one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation (12th in the nation) and we look for them to dominate the boards again. St Louis is also the better defensive team allowing opponents to shoot just 39%. We’ll take the tougher team tonight as an underdog.   |
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12-30-19 | Xavier +6.5 v. Villanova | Top | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Xavier +6.5 over Villanova, Monday at 6:30 PM ET We have this game power rated to Villanova favored by -3.5 at home so we feel the value is with Xavier. Nova simply isn’t the team they were a few years ago when they were making Final 4’s and winning National Championships. They are 9-2 this season with a blowout loss to Ohio State and a 9-point loss to Baylor. They are coming off a 1 point home win vs Kansas which was impressive but that along with a 7 point win over Mississippi State are their only top 100 wins. They are a very young team this year with 2 freshmen and 2 sophomores in their top 6 (they basically play just 6 players). How do they respond after knocking off then #1 Kansas? This might be a tough game for them. Xavier is very good this year. They are the far more experienced team with 4 starters back from last season + the addition of grad transfer Jason Carter who was one of the top players in the MAC last year playing for Ohio. Their only losses have been down to the wire games vs Florida (lost by 5) and Wake Forest (lost by 2). They are coming off an impressive 8-point road win @ TCU 8 days ago. The Muskateeers really played well at the end of last season with this same group of players winning 8 of their last 11 games. Add that performance to this season and XU is 19-5 their last 24 games. Their losses during that stretch have come by margins of 2, 2, 4, 5, and 5 points with two coming in OT. One of those games was in last year’s Big East tourney vs this Villanova team that eventually went on to win the conference tourney. That game went to OT with Nova winning by 4. This year’s Xavier team is improved over last season while we feel Villanova has taken a step back. We think the Muskateers have a decent shot at the outright upset and if not, we expect another close game. Take the points. |
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12-29-19 | Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 229.5 | Top | 112-127 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: UNDER 229 Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8PM ET – If you followed our NBA pick yesterday, we had the Pelicans over the Pacers which worked out well with New Orleans winning 120-98. The Pelicans have won four of their last five with impressive wins over Indiana, Denver, Portland and Minnesota. The reason they’ve been successful is their defense has stepped up dramatically in their last five games. On the season the Pels allow an average of 117PPG and 1.121 points per possession but in their last five games they are giving up just 99.4PPG (1st in NBA) and .994 points per possession (2nd). On the offensive end of the floor the Pelicans have scored 107 or less points in 4 of their last six games and rank 19th in overall offensive efficiency. Houston is one of the highest scoring teams in the league but recently their offense has stalled with 113 or less points in three straight games. The Rockets and their opponents have totaled less than 229 points in 5 of their last six games so they’ve struggled offensively and been better defensively. Pelicans are on a 4-0 Under streak as a dog, Houston on an Under run of 5-1 when tabbed a favorite. The play here is UNDER. |
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12-28-19 | Pacers v. Pelicans +1 | Top | 98-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans + over Indiana Pacers, 7PM ET The Pelicans are trending in the right direction, especially defensively where they are allowing just 1-point per possession over their last five games. That efficiency ranks them 2nd best in the entire NBA over that time. The Pels have held their last five opponents to an average of just 40.7% shooting from the field and allow 101.4 points per game in that stretch. Indiana has played a tough schedule of late and are coming off a much bigger game last night in Miami. In their last five games the Pacers are shooting just 41.2% from the field while scoring less than 105PPG. Indiana does have a positive road differential of +1.1PPG but they’ve also played the 4th easiest road schedule in the NBA this season. New Orleans has recently beaten Minnesota, Portland and Denver on the road and are playing their best basketball of the season. Indiana is off their hard-fought 1-point loss to the Heat and will have a hard time getting back up here. New Orleans is 6-1 ATS the last seven meetings and get the cash in this one! |
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12-26-19 | Grizzlies +6 v. Thunder | Top | 110-97 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: Memphis Grizzlies +6 @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET The situation really couldn’t be any better to play on the Grizzlies tonight as they are off an embarrassing loss to the Spurs in which they gave up 145 points AND recently loss to OKC on Dec 18th. In that game the Grizzlies held a 21-point advantage that the Thunder eventually overcame to win by 4-points. Memphis held a decisive advantage on the boards, but Oklahoma City benefitted from some ‘home cooking’ with plus +12 free throw makes. OKC also received 20-points, 3-rebounds and 3-assists from Danilo Gallinari who is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, yet the line is the same as a week ago. OKC has an average margin of victory is +5.1PPG at home this season which is not enough to get the money in this game plus they are in a bad schedule situation. The Thunder recently beat this team, are off a big upset win of the Clippers and have the Mavericks on deck. Memphis has covered 4 of the last five meetings and should cash another ticket tonight. |
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12-22-19 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 128-104 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
ASA Play on: LA Lakers -3.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9:30PM ET – We typically like playing on teams in their first game when a superstar is sitting out. Veteran or even young guys that are bench players get a rare start or extended minutes and typically rise to the challenge. We have no problem with LeBron sitting out for load management, err…a sore rib cage as they still have a top five player in the league that will get more touches. Anthony Davis is one of just a few players in the entire NBA that can carry a team himself and a guy that can get 50 on any given night. The Lakers also get Kyle Kuzma back in the lineup so don’t expect a scoring drop-off here. Add in a veteran PG like Rondo and we don’t expect the Lakers to suffer from not having LBJ in the lineup. Don’t get me wrong, LeBron’s absence would be felt over time, but not in today’s game. The Lakers have the 4th best home differential in the NBA at +11.8PPG and have won 6 of their last seven at home. Denver is just 6-5 SU on the road this year and have an offense that ranks 18th in offensive efficiency at 1.084 points per possession compared to the Lakers 6th ranked OEFF at 1.117PPP. Defensively these two teams are essentially even with the 2nd and 3rd ranked defensive efficiency units. The Lakers have covered 4 of the last five at home against the Nuggets and will get a win here tonight even without Bron. |
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12-22-19 | South Carolina v. Virginia UNDER 112 | Top | 70-59 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Under 112 Points - South Carolina @ Virginia, Sunday at 3 PM ET on ABC South Carolina likes a fast paced game but that won’t be happening here. UVA is the slowest paced team in the nation and they will control their tempo at home. The Cav defense is simply phenomenal ranking 1st nationally in defensive efficiency. They allow just 0.73 points per possession on the season. They have allowed a grand total of ONE team to top 55 points this year and in their 10 games they’ve held 8 opponents to 47 points or less. South Carolina is not a good shooting team (231st in eFG%, 304th in 3 point %, and make only 60% of their FT’s) and we have a hard time seeing them reaching 50 points here. On the other side, the Gamecocks are solid defensively ranking in the top 85 in defensive efficiency and in the top 35 in eFG% defense. Like South Carolina, the Cavs are not a good shooting team. They rank 317th in eFG% and 349th (3rd from the bottom) in 3 point percentage. Despite their 9-1 record, Virginia has topped 61 points just ONCE the entire season and that was when the put up 65 points on a James Madison defense that ranks 313th nationally in defensive efficiency. There will be very few 3-pointers made here and with the grinder pace this should be very low scoring. With the spread set at UVA -11.5, the expected outcome is approximately 62-51. Will UVA top 60 points? Odds are they will not. Will South Carolina get into the 50’s? We don’t think so. Take the UNDER here. |
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12-21-19 | Purdue v. Butler -2 | Top | 61-70 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Butler -2 over Purdue, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET Two in-state heavyweights to at it on a neutral court in Indianapolis today. While it’s obviously a big game for Purdue, we feel it’s even bigger for Butler as they are often overlooked and get to face off against their in-state big brother. Both teams are fantastic defensively which is why the total on this game sits below 120. However, the Bulldogs are the better shooting team hitting almost 50% of their shots (18th nationally) while Purdue ranks close to 200th in that same category. The Bulldogs have only one loss on the season and that was by a single point @ Baylor who ranks 10th in Ken Pom’s power ratings. They already have 5 outstanding wins over Florida, Stanford, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Minnesota, all ranked in the top 100. The Boilers already have losses vs Marquette, Florida State, Nebraska, and Texas and Butler ranks higher than all 4 of those teams (11th in the power rankings). The one thing that Purdue has the advantage is rebounding but that will be tempered today as starting center, 7’3 Matt Haarms, looks like he will sit with a concussion. Haarms is also their 2nd leading scorer. We definitely like Butler to win today and with the line sitting at just -2 we like the Bulldogs. |
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12-19-19 | Rockets v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 122-117 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Clippers -4.5 over Houston Rockets, 9:35PM ET – We are on the Clippers here minus the points in this Western Conference showdown. Clearly these are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA ranking 3rd (Houston) in offensive efficiency at 1.114 points per possession while the Clippers are 7th at 1.114PPP. The Rockets get their points by shooting over 45 3-pointers per game (1st) while the balanced Clippers get 49PPG in the paint (7th). Defensively is where these two teams are drastically different with the Clippers holding the 7th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.043PPP compared to the Rockets 16th ranked DEFF allowing 1.092PPP. Los Angeles holds opponents to 34.2% shooting from beyond the arc which is 11th best in the NBA. Houston is 22nd in the NBA at points allowed in the paint per game so you can see the Clippers have several key advantages. This will be the third meeting of the season as the home team has won both thus far. Houston has played the much easier schedule, yet the Clippers have the better overall statistics. The Clippers have covered 4 in a row at home as a chalk, 5-0 after tonight.  |
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12-19-19 | Coastal Carolina -4.5 v. Troy State | Top | 59-77 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Coastal Carolina -4.5 over Troy, Thursday at 7 PM ET We head to the Sun Belt conference for our next college basketball winner and will play on the visiting Chanticleer’s of Coastal Carolina. We got to the metrics for support on this wager as our math model has them projected to win by 12-points. Troy is ranked 316th out of 353 schools by our standards and they’ve played one of the softest schedules in all of college basketball (332nd). Despite playing a tougher schedule Coastal Carolina is better in offensive efficiency AND defensive efficiency ratings and laying a marginal number here. C of C will take advantage on the offensive end of the floor with a team that shoots 42.15% from beyond the arc which ranks them 6th in D1 hoops. Troy does not defend the 3-point line well at all allowing opponents to hit 36.82% which ranks them 289th. The porous Trojans defense gives up 70PPG which is 207th in the nation while Coastal averages 84.2PPG which is 8th best. Those numbers are significant as Troy is 0-5 SU this season when allowing at least 72 points in a game this season. You can bet C of C is getting to 72+. This game will have more meaning than usual for the Chanticleer’s as their last game of the season a year ago was a loss to Troy by 7-points on their home court. The Trojans haven’t bounced back off a loss this year with an 0-4 ATS run in that situation while C of C on 4-0 spread run on the road against a team with a winning home record. Coastal Carolina by 12-points. |
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12-18-19 | East Tennessee State +9.5 v. LSU | Top | 74-63 | Win | 100 | 3 h 50 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON ETSU +9.5 over LSU, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET This is a very dangerous game for this young LSU team (327th nationally in experience) that returns only 2 of their top 6 players from last season. The Tigers are coming off 3 blowout wins at home vs poor competition so they may come in a bit overconfident so to speak. They haven’t played a game in 11 days which can ruin a team’s rhythm. There is also a strong possibility this LSU team is peaking ahead to a huge game @ USC this Saturday, their first true road game of the season. That would be a mistake. ETSU is a very good team that starts all upperclassmen. The Buccaneers return all 5 starters from a team that went 24-10 last year. Head coach Steve Forbes is one of the best in the business although it goes unrecognized by most. In his 4 years at the helm for ETSU Forbes has never won fewer than 24 games and his career record here is 109-41. They are 9-2 on the year and gave Kansas all they could handle in Lawrence this year losing by 12 in what was a 6-point game with under 5:00 remaining. They are a solid shooting team (47% overall and 37% from deep) that knows how to get it done on the road winning 20 of their last 29 true road games. LSU has played a very easy schedule to date facing only 3 top 100 teams. They are 1-2 in those games with a 13-point win over Delaware and losses to Utah State and VCU. Now they face their 4th top 100 team and we think ETSU will give them all they can handle. This game should be tight and we take the points. |
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12-16-19 | Eastern Illinois v. Western Illinois +2 | Top | 85-47 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Western Illinois +2 over Eastern Illinois, Monday at 8 PM ET This line opened with EIU favored by 2 points and with a massive 86% of the tickets coming in on that side, the line dropped to -1.5 at many spots. That says that despite only 14% of the tickets in on WIU, heavy money came in on that side to move the number. We agree with the move.  Western Illinois is just 2-6 yet they’ve been competitive in all but one game and that was @ Indiana to open the season. The remainder of their losses were all decided by 7 points or less. The Leathernecks are playing their best basketball right now. They are 2-2 over their last 4 games with one loss coming by a single point and the other by 4 points @ Evansville who is 8-3 and won @ Kentucky this year. Also 3 of those 4 games were on the road. They haven’t played a home game since November 23rd and they’ve had 10+ days to get ready for this big home revenge game. They lost 2 games to EIU last year and both went to the wire losing by 2 in OT and by 7.  Four of the five starters for Western in that game are back and they’ve been waiting for this one. While they’ve been resting and preparing for this game, Eastern Illinois is off 2 huge wins at home vs UWGB last week and vs UW Milwaukee on Saturday. While we like this EIU team quite a bit this year, this is a tough spot in a quick turnaround situation. Despite their record, Western Illinois is very solid fundamentally as they rank 5th nationally in turnover percentage, 11th in 3 point shooting percentage, and #1 in FT percentage hitting nearly 89% as a team. We like WIU to win this one at home so we’ll take the points here. |
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12-14-19 | Heat v. Mavs -8 | Top | 122-118 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: Dallas Mavericks -8 vs. Miami Heat, 8:30PM ET The Hear will have a hard time getting back up for this game after their marquee game against the Lakers last night at home. Miami hasn’t won a game this season when playing without rest and have lost those games by an average of 17PPG. The Heat are basically an ‘average’ team on the road with a 7-6 SU record and an average differential of -2.6PPG (16th in the NBA). Dallas is rested and lost their most recent home game so expect a focused effort here. The Mavs have the second-best average home point differential in the league at +9.1PPG and are the most efficient offense in the league at home. The Mavericks have covered 9 of their last ten as a favorite while Miami comes into this game 0-5 ATS their last five when playing without rest. Lay the points. |
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12-14-19 | Oregon v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 71-70 | Loss | -104 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Michigan -3.5 over Oregon, Saturday at 12PM ET Great spot for the Wolverines here. They are coming off a loss @ Illinois on Wednesday and they are now back at home where they are 5-0 winning by an average margin of 88 to 69. They’ve played an extremely tough schedule (10th most difficult in the nation so far) and they’ve already beaten 5 top 60 teams including Gonzaga, North Carolina, Iowa, Iowa State, and Creighton. Their only losses on the season were @ Illinois and @ Louisville. They play host to the Ducks here in what will be Oregon’s first true road game of the season. They’ve played a few neutral site games including losses to North Carolina & Gonzaga in the Bahamas, the same 2 teams Michigan beat in that tourney. The Wolverines are shooting 52% at home this year including 41% from beyond the arc. That gives Michigan is huge advantage here as they are obviously comfortable playing and shooting at home facing a team that has yet to venture onto an opponent’s home court. The Ducks have been a solid shooting team but in their 3 neutral site games they shot just 40% from the field and lost 2 of those games as we mentioned above. Defensively Michigan should have the edge as well ranking 16th nationally in defensive efficiency (vs a very tough schedule) compared to Oregon’s 52nd in that same category. It’s tough to win on the road period, much less vs a top notch opponent that will be extra motivated coming of a loss. Oregon has won 20+ games in each of the last 2 seasons yet they are just 9-14 SU on the road. We like Michigan in this spot. |
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